What does this do to the poll figures?
April 29th, 2008
“16% of those who think they are registered aren’t”
In its final Mayoral poll MORI agreed to a suggestion of mine and asked whether those interviewed were actually on the electoral register. They found that only 92% were.
Now a report from the Electoral Commission suggests that the proportion not on the register could be much higher than that. The pollster NOP was commissioned and it found that 16% of people who thought they were on the electoral roll were not.
But the non-registered situation is different in different areas of the capital. “..The study found that every Labour-run, inner-city borough had poor registration figures. In Hackney, 29 per cent of those questioned were eligible to vote but unregistered, in Haringey 24 per cent, Newham and Tower Hamlets 23 per cent, and Lambeth 25 per cent.”
On the basis of the Standard story and not the report itself you can only conclude that this is not good news for Ken. It could also distort the polls.
In the betting there’s been a big move to Boris during the afternoon. He is at 0.45/1 with Ken at 2.2/1.
Mike Smithson
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I should not think this is too significant. The young and ethnic minorities are known to be less likely to vote. Not being on the register is a reason why.
OT I was in Witney at 8.30 this morning and desperate for a wee. The public loos swallowed my 10p and refused to let me in. Personally I blame the local MP.
[I am about to go wildly offtopic in a very early comment (apologies); but this is from the last thread. And anyway I am off out in a minute, so I shall disturb the peace no more:]
347. As I understand it, if you distributed these images, yes you could be prosecuted.
How stupid is that? The same lunacy pervades the child p0rno laws. If you are 17 years old you are, of course, allowed to have sex with your 17 year old girlfriend.
But take a photo of this and you are manufacturing child p0rn, and you can be prosecuted. DERRRR.
OK, I’m going out now. Ciaobella.
Well, I’m ashamed of my peers. This 27 year old registered a whole 24 hours before the deadline.
But what were the figures for unregistered voters in 2004! If they were similar in number, this shouldn’t make things worse for Ken.
As for 16% believing they are on the register and are not. Again, is this different to previous years? Most voters know the procedure for registering and I suspect most of these people are ones who don’t vote anyway. They wouldn’t make a difference.
If this is genuinely a new development (why would this be?) then it certainly would be bad for Ken.
Basically this shows up Mori’s failings.. Respondents claimed they were Registered: 92% claimed so…
But reality is that up to 16% of that 92% are not registered.
So are the Respondents lying to a telephone pollster or just anxious to give them teh answers they thought they wanted?
And how many lied about other things?
I suggest it casts a shadow over Mori’s methods.
this doesn’t say much about your labour voter,does it?
4 - The reason it is bad is because it may not be represented by the polls, overstating/underestimating the vote shares for the respective candidates.
Don’t know if this article has been posted. Following postal vote fraud Peterborough Council re-did their electoral roll rather than just update it. 8,000 electors disappeared off the register as a result. Some may have been “the not bothered” but majority seem to have been no longer resident. Would imagine inner London same or worse regarding poor quality of Electoral Roll data, outer London a bit better.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3828315.ece
A lot of people who are eligible to vote, particularly the young, can’t be arsed. They may bother, eventually, to go on the register, when they need to apply for credit. But still won’t vote.
I would suggest that the more detailed analysis by YouGov requires more input from the respondent and is therfore likely to be more accurate…
Perhaps many of Ken’s supporters are illegal immigrants who aren’t (yet) eligible to register to vote
1.SBS
…. you could always pi$$ over the offending MP - that must be worth 10p !! …. or take the pi$$ and vote English Democrats …. or get pi$$ed and gibe Our Gordon several 10p’s in tax !!
2. I think the law really does need to define a difference between sexual activity involving pre-pubescents, and underage adolescents. Both are wrong, but to brand a man a paedophile because he should have known better when he slept with a 15 year old who told him she was 17 is clearly a flaw in the system. As is your example.
11. Perhaps you shouldn’t attempt jokes.
11
I suspect many poorer people lead such disorganised lives that registration is a very low priority in life. If they read the redtop papers they will be unaware of elections until they happen and it’s too late.
And of course these are natural Labour supporters..
4- Indeed, things likely aren’t worse for Ken in a purely objective sense in comparison to 2004. But the issue being addressed here is the accuracy of the polls, not how things have or haven’t changed since previous elections. If a group of predominantly Labour voters in claiming to be registered to vote when they in fact aren’t, this is reason to believe that the polls tend to be skewed in Ken’s favor. Thus, things may be worse for Ken than the polls indicate, not worse versus 2004.
Besides the distorting efffect on the polls, these figures are bad for Ken because he is less popular than in 2004 - all the polls agree on that. In a close race, getting out core supporters will be absolutely vital. Furthermore, a failure to register to vote is likely to be indicative of widespread political apathy amongst those groups which can’t be good for Ken either.
Question - is the Boris move from 1.55 to 1.45 a reaction to Mike’s “fair value” estimate of 1.3 or is there anything else new today? - could just be “pile on” I guess… Mike?
14 Sez who? The PC brigade? LOL
19. Anyone with a sense of humour.
18: probably just late money, the effects of the last yougov.
and on Saturday we can all start talking about the Crew By-election on the 22nd! More poll testing perhaps.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/staffordshire/7374064.stm
22 sorry - Crewe & Nantwich
MODERATED
18..boris is the proverbial “penalty kick”.i think that is the reason.
registering to vote is a pain if you move house fairly often, which I’m sure applies to a lot of young adults in inner London, many of whom I would guess would go for Ken if they bothered at all.
but this has always been true, and Ken has won the last two times. I don’t buy the arguments that say that demographics etc. are winning it for the Cons, because I don’t think much has changed since 2004. I just think Boris is far more appealing than Norris ever was, even if that appeal is fairly superficial (i.e. name recognition).
20 That rules you out then, sanctimonious p**c*
21
Yeah. I noticed political markets are very slow to react to news. It always amazed me.
In january, it took about 24 hours for the market to react in favour of McCain in NH after Huckaboom-bom won Iowa.
Very slow. Which is very good for us.
24 The link doesn’t work, the story isn’t true, so go away!
“The study found that every Labour-run, inner-city borough had poor registration figures.”
The irony of this is that Labour will only have its own badly run councils to blame for failing to register voters.
An illegal immigrant, or the Ghost of Christmas Past are quite free to register to vote. No one would know that they weren’t eligible.
Nick if nothing else could your party not try and introduce a decent electoral system. Not PR that would be too much to ask, but one that is at least clean within its own parameters.
27. Punch? Pluck?
…national ID cards would remove these sorts of problems…
1 I think you’ll find that’s the ‘Yellow Peril’ tax kicking in!!
only a few more weeks and PGCE hell will be over SBS - then you can join those of us desperately trying to make sense of the lunatic education system we have.
Crewe and Nantwich - assume Labour will select a well known local - either trying to get all the bad news out of the way quickly if they lose, or setting the baseline for the next relaunch if they hold.
30/31…do remember that labour isn’t working!
ID cards not required - just normal identity checks would do.
31. Careful, Icarus, or Nick will come along and say this is a justification for ID cards, with “place of registered vote” as a compulsory piece of data contained on it.
24:
I think the current political situation is getting to some people. They’re trying to construct an alternative reality.
4, 16. In fact the proportion of people not registering to vote is increasing.
As I posted on the last thread, the electorate of England has hardly increased at all since 2000 despite a significant increase in population.
Crewe and Nantwich: Jamie Oliver is apparently in the frame for this by-election for Labour.
Al Gore is at 6.5 at Intrade for the nomination. Anybody aware of rumours behind this?
40:
Ditto as 38.
36. identity checks based on what though? Under the current system proof of address (at a bank, for example) is normally by producing a recent utility bill(!)
24 - I think ICM only do one poll a month for the Guardian, and the April figures were C39, L34, LD19.
Have you made a mistake?
I believe that Tories are better at getting their vote ‘out’ than Labour, when it doesn’t really matter. So in your safe labour constituencies turnout may be 50% compared with 70% in safe Tory ones. But is there any evidence that when a vote is tight, Labour supporters are less likely to turn out? I know voting numbers are lower in poor areas, but why is it assumed that these are Labour backers being lazy? I’m sure many of the disenfranchised are just completely apathetic to the whole thing and couldn’t care less who wins, particularly since the creation of New Labour.
Obama gains another SD, drip, drip, drip.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080429/NEWS/80429020/-1/NEWS04
God that’s unseemly haste at C&N.
44 - That post was blatant ramping, maybe Mike could check the ip and see if it is anyone known to the site.
Using a special machine that allows me to see the future, here’s a sneak preview of next month’s ICM poll.
The ICM poll will put the Labour fare behind the Tories at 87 percent; Lib Dems 10%, Labour 3%. The poll will be taken after the fall out from the news about the unexplained death of Alistair Darling in Gordon’s secret torture dungeon.
Link to ICM:
http://www.icmrepresearch.co.uk/pdfs/2008_May_guadian/observer_poll.pdf
49 - bet Ave It would be disappointed with those figures…
41…the democrats,just like their new labour chums will implode if there is any substance to the Gore price.heaven help us all!
46 One wonders why Clinton is up 3.4 to 22.4 on intrade today….I never thought she’d see above 20 again….and also at 4.8 on betfair when I thought again she could never possibly go under 5….??
46: Thank goodness for that!
NEW ZEALAND GENERAL ELECTION
…will probably be held this september. For sure, it will happen before November the 15.
Now, a New Zealand Morgan poll on Thursday put National’s lead at 14.5 points : http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/30545/national_gains_keeps_lead_in_new_zealand
This, of course, is the Right.
Labour - lead by an ugly lady — have been in power since 1999.
And the situation now sucks: high inflation, http://www.stuff.co.nz/4498852a11.html
and massive exodus of native population to Autralia (http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/thepress/4497084a24035.html )
MODERATED AND THE PERSON RESPONSIBLE IS BANNED
52
Boy, I have been calling for days — that she will reach 30…
Imagine what will happen after her win in Indiana, and WV, and K., and PR…
52 - I’m sure our resident French-Canadian will claim it’s from the PA result. In fact I think it’s an overreaction to Wright’s latest blatherings.
As a stopped clock is right at least for a moment I think Rush Limbaugh has it down, Wright is trying to destroy Obama’s candidate subliminally because a different type of black leader will negate everything that Wright has wanted.
I think Obama will leave it some days and then do something like make comments which he didn’t think were being recorded “honest” which take Wright apart piece by piece. He can deny that they were for the public and the issue moves into a new area, safely contained.
Maybe then he’ll endorse Clinton!
41) 52)
Its getting messy for Obama right? Operation chaos, polls ticking in Clinton’s favour, more jeremiah wright stuff.
Given Clinton can’t win without a huge fight at the convention the way to play “messy” aside from backing Hillary is a) back McCain for next president or b) back Gore as the “solution” candidate - and that is what people are doing.
Personally I’m looking for a good entry point to re-back Obama for dem nom…
40 - “Crewe and Nantwich: Jamie Oliver is apparently in the frame for this by-election for Labour.” Oh I do hope so!
Mike Smithson:
Right, I now have my google-mail account all set-up, and it is a valid email address, so you can now send me my bollocking!!
If anyone else feels like emailing me some abuse… feel free.
59. Please don’t feed him.
re 24 & 44. I think that this was a hoax. I’ve taken steps against the person responsible.
There is an unconfirmed SUSA poll for NC being blogged that Obama lead in NC is down to 5% :
http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/4/29/113359/438
62 - I think 55 may be of a piece with that…
60. You may have given Mike your details, but that doesn’t mean they are circulated. This is not a Government department.
Mike - try 55.
23 Ted, that is a very quick by election, just 3 weeks and Labour have yet to select a candidate.
55 - Fake polls *and* fake defections?
Having strayed into PB territory you are about to be pulled out of the car, dragged across waste ground, have your organs eviscerated, be doused in petrol, set on fire and then shot.
It’s the only language they know……
57
Why’s that?
I also put into the equation the GOP attack machine exploiting the ‘cling to’ SF remarks and the Wright’s stuff (which is snowballing…). There will be more about Ayers, too, and Rezko (maybe).
58
I’m waiting for it, too, Political Pal.
If/When Clinton stock http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=177134
reaches 27-30, then I will ready my gun to sell it expensive and to buy bundles of cheap Obama stock — at around 73-70…
Action Baby!
65. Awww, but Sally, I was looking forward to some abuse from you?!
That sort of stuff turns me on
69 - Mark my words, Obama is about to drop on Wright from a great height and, having tried to take the moral route, he will gain from doing so.
The result will be that a mighty spat will negate all the avenues that the Rove-ians were set to play.
Actually, a good formulation would be for Obama to say that Wright ‘clings’ to the past and outdated views of America and that his ‘bitterness’ is not the way to move America forward where working together is needed not creating division. One bullet, two hits.
Ayers is a non-starter, I think they all know that. Rezko, well that maybe next but the GOP are getting rid of their ammo too early, this is stuff that they would leave until the autumn if they weren’t so worried.
67 Suggestion is that it is either a “get the bad news over quickly” decision or that Labour hope Tories & Lib Dems will split protest vote, Labour wins and Brown has a little “bounce”.
On Brown - Jon Craig in item on Government websites on Boulton & co suggests a Brownblog to match WebCameron and has even suggested a typical daily entry:
“”Woke up 5am. Damn. Overslept. Tip-toed downstairs to office. Locked. Damn. Set off burglar alarm. Almost arrested by security team.
“Eventually inside, saw latest opinion polls. Hell. What should I do? Rang Ed (Balls). No reply. Why does he never answer at 5am, dammit? Threw mobile phone at wall. Damn, it’s broken. That’s three this week now…”
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 45% .. Clinton 47%
McCain 46% .. Obama 44%
Clinton 47% .. Obama 46%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106888/Gallup-Daily-Clinton-47-Obama-46.aspx
62. Hi Mike, did you see my post at 60?
Sorry to muck you around with the fake email address initially!
Mike could the valid email address be checked automatically in some way to get rid of these annoying posts e.g 40, 55.
Casino Royale - you can email Mike - look in “Links” on right menu.
re 75. I did and I am sure that you know why I wanted to contact you. Let’s leave at that and welcome back.
45. Interesting analysis.
Anecdote alert: I clearly remember getting a cab up to a party on the election night in 1997. It was in Newcastle, a Labour stronghold. The cabbie siad to me: “I think Labour’s going to do it this time. I can feel it in the air.” I said: “Did you vote for them?” He said: “I didn’t need to, Labour won’t miss my vote in Wallsend.”
I personally despair of people who don’t vote. But psephologically of course, that cabbie was absolutely right.
Before Harry, Martin and all the rest now lynch me as an Astroturfer let me say this once again: I believe Boris will win on Thursday as London’s first Doughnut Mayor.
78. Thanks Mike. I very much appreciate your generosity in this matter.
*Casino comes out of the Headmasters office relieved that he didn’t get detention*!!
77. Thanks Icarus.
72
“Actually, a good formulation would be for Obama to say that Wright ‘clings’ to the past and outdated views of America and that his ‘bitterness’ is not the way to move America forward where working together is needed not creating division. One bullet, two hits.”
Sounds to me like a very good strategy, Paul (if that is your real name!).
But.
If Obama-Boy does repudiates Wright — don’t you think Wright might go more crazy? –telling journalists stuff like “Obama and I agrees that the US governement is evil”…
And then I can foresee a GOP clip mixe Ayers (who worked with Obama, right?) sponsoring the overthrowing of the US governement with this new more-crazy-than-eva Wright’s stuff.
I’m serious.
Beside, Obama is running also on his JUDGEMENT.
What does Obama’s assocaition with Wright will tell both the Super-Del and the November voters about his judgement: the GOP attack machine will try to spin the point that Obama is a terrible judge of character. Thus he can not be trusted with the Pres. Of Iran.
For — >>>>Obama was friends with Wright for 20 YEARS and didn’t realise what a stupid ar*se he is, obviously trying nowadays to KILL his parishioner and friend fantastic campaign…
Significant moves on Betfair and Sporting Index towards Hilary… The mood on the American blogs is pointing her way. “Something’s goin’ on may return to haunt Obama…” If he doesn’t win convingingly in North Carolina anything could happen. Forget all about Al Gore, though: if it isn’t Obama, it’ll be Hilary. Yet, it seems almost impossible that it won’t be Obama, given his lead in delegates and the popular vote…
Boris has it in the bag for Thursday - very significant moves towards him in the last few hours (partly fuelled by me……) Ladbrokes now 2/5 Boris, Ken out to 7/4….. The mood in the Sky debate clinched it for me last night - Ken looked resigned to defeat and the audience was clearly for Boris, who looked very good…
80. but your bottom was little sore i bet!
71. I put my bondage gear away when Dave became our PM in waiting. We are all compassionate Tories now.
Now Al Sharpton attacks Obama, I think we’re getting the picture where this is going.
“Barack Obama made a call for nonviolence in the aftermath of the Sean Bell verdict - infuriating the Rev. Al Sharpton, who accused the presidential candidate of trying to “grandstand in front of white people,” sources told The Post.
During what a source described as a “heated” phone call yesterday, Sharpton told Obama he was disappointed with the Illinois senator’s words on Friday, when Obama said “resorting to violence to express displeasure” was “completely unacceptable and counterproductive.” “
Sorry - missed the link -
http://www.nypost.com/seven/04292008/news/regionalnews/sharpton_raps_obama_108577.htm
Norwich Union is going to call itself Aviva. I can understand a crap brand (like BA or Conservatives) trying to leave problems behind it but they must be mad to ditch Norwich Union for almost the name of a bus company.
on this leaked SUSA poll story showing a close race in BC - looks legit to me - people in the comments section read and digested it..
http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/4/29/113359/438
I laid some Obama @ 1.09 and 1.1 - seems like the right thing to do - could move out to 1.2? some left up there @ 1.12 (mkt 1.09 / 1.12)
89) oops BC = NC obv…
85 - greater love hath no woman….
Sally surely it would be kinder to let them act out their fantasies with you. Go on, polish up those handcuffs.
84. Still nursing the bruises. I just hope the Camomile lotion will work this time!
85. Ooerr Missus!!!
Wish my partner in crime was more like you….
Ok, I’ll stop now.
84. Now we know. His sercet is out. He is a…. traditional Tory! Yikes.
Laying Obama low-risk but still looks like money down the drain to me. Remember, he WILL have the lead in delegates - and the super dels will have to be very brave to go against that…
I have mentioned this before, but if the York Outer (a genuine doughnut shaped constituency next time, surrounding City of York) became the first of a growing trend, I think it could have quite powerful implications.
The natural split in a midsized city or town, demographically, is between the City Centre folk, and the Suburbanites, and I think that such constituencies would do much to consolidate marginals into safer seats, and possibly change the Lib Dems into a party that had narrower but deeper support, in a way that the Tories and Labour have (rural and ultra-urban respectively).
The other added area of interest in doughnut-shaped constituencies would be that, by virtue of their being possible, they would be an oddity restricted to mid-sized towns - not for villages, and certainly not for big cities. As the ever-excellent Blair Freebairn explained in his article a few months ago, Mid-Sized Towns and Their Hinterlands (MTTHs?) will be the key to whomsoever wins the next election.
The also-excellent Sean Fear has responded to me when I made this point before by suggesting that the Boundaries Commission is actually not in favour of extending the doughnut-shape to other parts of the country, but I will still be very interested to see how York Outer swings against its nominal setting in the next GE.
Extrabet the only bookie still going 1/2 Boris… Suspect it won’t last long, could be last chance for anyone who wants 1/2….
Ken now 15/8 with Paddy Power.
95
It’s a good way to go green on both Clinton and Obama…
92. Icarus - are you up for it?
I have a valid email address now if you want to act out some of my James Bond fantasies..
93. We have fur handcuffs now. And people say we haven’t changed!
Poor Jack W. He will be fast asleep missing a thread like this on pb.com. It will break his 105 year old heart.
98. Depends how red you are on Clinton!!!!
Kate Hoey is lead story on BBC1 TV Regional News.
What is it with Tories and subversive sexual practices?
Now there’s moderately subversive and there’s more extreme, but there’s definitely something in the Conservative mindset. Beneath all this talk of family values, stability, blah blah blah there appears to be a darker side.
96 - Sorry, that was a response to benbobjim who called Boris our first Doughnut Mayor of London.
I would be inclined to believe the SUSA poll, because of their recent successes, and it lines up with Obama’s recent failure to secure (90% plus) of the Af Am vote.
He didn’t do as well in this demographic in Philly/Pittsburgh, he is polling behind Clinton in Gary (NW Indiana), and now seems to be fighting a generational battle against Wright and Sharpton. That might be great politics for re-assuring Blue Collar White Men, but distancing yourself from your base is always dangerous, unless you are leader of the Labour Party.
82 - Wright going more crazy would be perfect, he’s a bit of a fruitcake in most people’s opinion anyway (see his ideas about the US government spreading AIDS) and having him go postal would be an end to the matter.
It’s already clear from Sharpton that Obama is annoying the old style black political movement, all that is good for him.
As for judgement, one word which will negate any of this as soon as the race is down to two.
Hagee.
The Dems haven’t even begun digging in that direction, if they can hold their fire until the time of the GOP convention or so then they will be able to start the campaign proper in a great position.
In any case, people across the world know the situation, divorces are messy, you didn’t know then what you came to know now, it takes time to get out and, whilst you still try and remember the good times, the bits where it got out of hand are what remind you not to go back.
O/T - I see BBC Weather are forecasting light showers for Thursday, should depress turnout, which should favour Boris.
Don’t think it will favour him *that* much though, given it’s going to be a close ‘un.
95. What superdelegates? Obama’s drawn almost level now…
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/
107. The 298 remaining?!
Harriet Harman now being interviewed on BBC1 London Regional News.
All questionning is about Hoey.
Q: “Is she backing Livingstone?” Very waffly answer - “She is backing Labour”
Now moving onto stab proof vest.
The poll tax appeared to deter some voter registration and this was highlighted in at least one of the Nuffield GE Studies.
I hope that the postal voting system will be subject to cross party view, I remain uneasy about the assurances about postal voting fraud given after the Scottish Elections and the Birmingham local elections from last year. A secure secret ballot is essential for a good electoral system.
89
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html
SUSA was giving Obama +9 on the last one : 04/19 - 04/21
Now it is giving him only 5…
PPP was also showing a signifiant decline…
I think/hope (for my$$$) he will win NC. But there is still one week to go… If this trend keep on, i donno what I’ll do to cover my bet.
103. What is it with socialists and their complete failure to understand satire [esp. at your own expense].
Harman interview is an absolute disaster for Labour and Livingstone - on prime-time BBC1 less than 48 hours before polling.
108. You really think they are going to reverse the trend?
They are leaving it a bit late if that’s their plan……
Got to admire Harriet. Being oblivious to all her own weaknesses is an undoubted strength.
Casino Royale, I think I am more interested in Mrs Moneypenny than Commander Bond.
Don’t worry Sally, we all know women don’t have a sense of humour.
103. Eh?
You Lefties are always trying to “prove” to yourself your own pet predjudices, particularly that all Tories are, by definition, evil psychotic weirdos.
Any “evidence” which you can warp inside your own mind to substantiate this ridiculously laughable hypothesis you grab with more enthusiasm than a little kid reaching for the sherbet fountains in a sweet shop.
Ever considered that Sally/Jimbo/Me are JOKING?
Even if we’re not, at least we could be good fun in bed and actually give you a good time.
I expect you; Frank “Missionary is all I do!” Booth - are a “wham bam thank you mam!” kinda guy, who gives as much satisfaction as a Piers Morgan stand-up comedy show.
Sexual inventiveness does not mean we *really* want to beat our fellow citizens to a pulp
49 Getting close to the Canvassing results on the doorstep there !
(yes, yes, I know….)
Another Indiana poll shows Obama pulling ahead this time -
2Democratic presidential hopefuls Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are locked in a virtual dead heat in Indiana, according to the latest Howey-Gauge Poll.
Hoosiers favor Obama over Clinton by the slim margin of 47 percent to 45 percent.”
http://www.ibj.com/html/detail_page.asp?content=14331
117 - indeed. That’s why they don’t laugh at sexist jokes.
Is there anywhere you can bet on the poll shares of minor parties on thursday?
121. Very good
One has to say that all the media..including the BBC (well they cant be left behind ..can they??) have been far more ready to stick the boot in over the recent past, even if some are reluctant to. I feel sure the botched election is still pretty firmly imprinted on some journalists minds. Who can forget Adam Boulton looking pretty hacked off interviewing Jacqui Smith who tried (badly) to defend the indefensible.
Its been a long time coming, but the media IMHO have the taste of blood.
124 was re 113
In fairness to Frank, he was probably referring to certain other Tories who, over the years, have indulged in rather adventurous bedroom practices.
Us LDs, on the other hand, are not deviant in the slightest.
http://newsoftheworld.co.uk/2704_baron_hard_up.shtml
He’s not the only one.
127. Tri-lingual? Tri-lingual?!
126 - …Gleefully spreading your wild Oaten.
Don’t worry Julian, something to do with where you put your tongue I think
126
best joke today
I do weddings. Sometimes as a double-act with John O.
105
HAGEE?
It’s nice exchanging with Obama.Paul
If Hagee embracing McCain is the secret october bullet of the Dem, they’ll be SO doomed.
(John Hagee is an anti-Catholic pastor.
Sure, it portrays religious conservatives in a very bad light.
Sure, the conservative coalition has been strained this year,
Sure, McCain could have done without courting this toxic pastor.
But how can it do long-term damage?
126. I don’t want to lower the tone *too* much, or get censored by Mike, but the best (ahem) “times” I’ve had have been with Tory chicks - they can be reeeeally creative
Labour girls just give you ear-ache and a lecture on neo-Maoist feminism before you get the bra off (nag! nag! nag! nehnehnehnehneh!!!) - having said that, it can be quite er.. satisfying to bed the opposition - and they are up for it with Tory guys for some reason
Never had (met?) a Lib Dem woman I was interested in. Are there any?!
Sorry Julian.
(an email from Mike might be beckoning now… GULP!)
The Scotsman calls this an apology from Brown over the 10p tax fiasco:
“Of course, because it’s unfortunate when things go wrong for people and we’ve tried to sort that out immediately over the last few days.
“But I do stress, as a result of the Budget, far more people are better off, people who are on low incomes are better off, people who are in poverty as families or as pensioners, many have been taken out of tax altogether.”
What a mealy mouthed piece of nonsense. He still cannot say sorry, can he? No mention that he is responsible? He talks about ‘when things go wrong for people’ but it should be when Chancellors do wrong to people.
126.
No of course - defecating on rent boys stomachs is very a-la MP for Winchester is quite normal .
135, cut the guy a break, he’s expressed a degree of regret that can be equated to an apology.
:p
126- That better be very tongue in cheek :p
134. No need to apologise - neither have I, and I’ve had a memberhship card for over a year now.
Oh well, there’s always conference…
Has anyone noticed the similarities between Nick Clegg and Neil Kinnock?
133
HAGEE? - PART II
Hagee has not been a profund influence on McCain’s life.
Hagee is just an angry anti-Catho evangelical Texan who wanted to help put McCain on top in Texas.
11 vox
Know the parable of the Good Samaritan, do you?
Malcolm
140)
Obama plans big “Wright” news conference :
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0408/A_big_press_conference_on_Wright.html
140, speaking of the Cleggnut, did anyone see the BBC 10 o’clock news last night? The man’s a blithering idiot. He bangs on about English being important for kiddiwinks of immigrants to learn (fair point) but then says that the school’s sign (in English and Urdu) should remain in two languages.
Clegg seems to have a marvellous talent for naivety. EU abstention is most notable, but also in GQ when he made a totally illogical argument about the Iraq war being illegal but retaliation isn’t right, whereas if the UK were illegally invaded retaliation would be fine.
Hmm. Perhaps if it weren’t for Brown Clegg’s own neck would be far more exposed.
139. Good luck mate.
Alllllll about the beer goggles!
137 I want him to have the unkindest cut of all for a politician:
For Brown, as you know, was Tony’s angel.
Judge, O you gods, how dearly Tony lov’d him!
This was the most unkindest cut of all;
For when the noble Blair saw him stab,
Ingratitude, more strong than traitors’ arms,
Quite vanquish’d him: then burst his mighty
heart. . . .
Oaten was an embarassment, but there’s something more interesting about Tory scandals. The sense that they’re trying to keep up appearances, seem respectable, the moral certainty.
15 mad haddock
**I suspect many poorer people lead such disorganised lives**
Guess you haven’t met any poor people in your circle. Amazingly some of them are both nice and organised.
Malcolm
110. I don’t think there was much of an issue about postal votes at the Scottish elections last year, unless you count general incompetence like delivering my postal vote to my home on the Monday, 3 days before the polls, when I had left the country on Sunday.
19 vox
**14 Sez who? The PC brigade? LOL**
Amazingly hilarious; the new Les Dawson. You obviously need either an agent or a nurse.
Malcolm
148 O/T Doubt the scandal was meant to be political - we have now had two Monaco resident multi-millionaire orgy scandals, presumably NoW has a source in the entertainment provision industry. Wonder who next weeks will be?
151. From someone who advocates active and deliberate racial discimination in employment and services, you have a cheek.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_clinton-224.html
133 - As here
“Right-wing pastor John Hagee says vile, despicable things about patriotic Americans…the worst being that Catholics are part of a church that is a “great whore,” that “all Muslims have a mandate to kill Christians and Jews,” and that God damns America with hurricanes because gay Americans plan parades.
Oh, and Hagee says God wants us to destroy Iran ASAP.
John McCain actively seeks Pastor Hagee’s endorsement and gets it.
When John McCain accepts Hagee’s endorsement, he doesn’t include a list of the pastor’s statements that he finds unacceptable. No, my friends, he accepts the whole Hagee package with no ifs, ands, or buts.
When McCain finds out that Hagee thinks God damns America because of gays, Catholics, Muslims and others, McCain is shocked…shocked! But he continues to praise Pastor Hagee and cherish his crucial endorsement.
Instead of turning the controversy into a teachable moment—with, say, a groundbreaking speech on religious diversity and equality for all Americans—McCain, the straight-talker, continues to weave and waffle his way through the Hagee controversy, hoping that the media will give him yet another free pass. (Most of the media comply in exchange for some excellent barbeque behind McCain’s bus.)
When gently—ever so gently—pressed about Hagee’s statements weeks later by journalists, a visibly agitated McCain blurts out that, hey, at least he wasn’t my pastor for twenty years!!!”
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/29/75915/4284/302/505165
Click on the links there and you see how loopy he is - “Hagee, who argues that the United States must join Israel in a preemptive, biblically prophesized military strike against Iran that will lead to the second coming of Christ”. Nutjob, and McCain refuses to denounce him.
This is why McCain is scared, the way that Wright has been used has set the scene for Hagee to be wheeled out at the most appropriate time.
Apparently Obama is live on MSNBC right now strongly denouncing Wright. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/ Quote “Obviously I didn’t know him as well as I thought either.” - quote from a Kossack poster..
Some of the freak show were on display in this evenings Labour election broadcast. Grinning Gordon. Chilly Harriet. Dull Alan. Fortunatly they kept creepy Ed Balls of the TV before the watershed!
27 vox
I find your voice less popular than you do. I think I’ll only post comments on your posts today.
Malcolm
New “We Suck” PPP Indiana Primary Poll :
Clinton 50% .. Obama 42%
Note - AA O-73/C-21 - Too low.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_042908.pdf
I agree that Obama and his supporters will probably have the chutzpah to claim that Obama is a ‘victim’ of Wright. Of course, in realty Obama spent 20 years in Wright’s church and knew fully well what he was gettting into when he took him into the campaign. Obama’s prolonged association with Wright shows, at the very least, appalling judgement and heavily hints at a worldview that is sympathetic to dictators and doesn’t view America as a force for good. In times when the West is facing a concerted enemy, there is no room for this sort of thinking. I find it ironic that people on this site praised Obama for not repudiating Wright but now, once it becomes obvious that Wright was not misquoted, have changed their tune and now think that Wright is attempting to destroy Obama’s campaign.
Of course a quite a few commentators have been sympathetic to Obama about this latest outburst and some people will buy into this latest spin that Wright has ‘gone postal’. I’m willing to entertain the possibility that, like Samantha Power’s outburst about Hillary Clinton, Wright’s latest rantings may have been a tactical move to allow Obama to disown Wright without repudiating Wright’s value. However, I don’t buy into the conspiracy theory that Wright wants to destroy Obama’s campaign.
To be honest both the McCain and Clinton campaigns have handled it badly. Saying nothing has enabled Obama to spin it the way that he wanted to and left the nastier element of the GOP, such as the Republican party in North Carolina, to try to turn this into a question of race rather than of foreign policy. As soon as the first tapes were aired Hillary should have held a press conference in New York and denounced his comments about 9/11 and tied it into Obama’s leadership. If she or McCain were unwilling to do so themselves they should have got surrogates like Chuck Schumer or Rudy Giuliani to do so. I also think that to compare it with Hagee is silly, Hagee has not been McCain’s pastor for 20 years, nor has McCain used Hagee as a sounding board. I’m disappointed by McCain decision not to fully repudiate Hagee’s endorsement but comparing the two is silly.
141 - Which makes it doubly sinister that McCain has cosied up to him, this isn’t about any personal history it’s because McCain wants these guys to think he supports them. Well does he agree with them? Does he not want their votes? I think he should come clean now.
154 - On the match-up polls Clinton is now doing better against McCain than she has since November. If you look at the trend lines for the last couple of weeks she has gone consistently up, McCain down.
Any ideas why this is and will it have any significance? I guess snipergate falling out of the news helps and her PA win. She is currently +3.5% v McCain compared to +1.8% for Obama. That’s not enough to matter but if it grows to a 5-point gap does that start to turn the SD tide?
159 - Morus posted yesterday that Obama has done consistently worse in Indiana polls with Black voters. I agree with you that the 21% share for Hillary looks too high. However we’ve got to be careful of assuming that past trends will definitely continue. It’s a statistical tie at the moment in Indiana, but gun to the head I’d say Clinton will probably edge it.
162 Kieran. What is significant is the lack of tide of SD’s for either candidate. Indeed even after her Super Tuesday/Ohio/Penn wins Hillary has only met with a tide of indifference, a mere dribble. And whilst Obama’s never managed a tide he has had a steady stream of SD’s that looks likely to overtake Hillary within a few weeks.
Off thread but Nadine Dorries has this on the 10p effect….
http://www.dorries.org.uk/Blogs/2008/Apr/29#29
160 - It’s always a pleasure to be on the opposite side to you Matthew, I’d hate to think that I had anything in common with a labour pro-Iraq McCain supporter.
http://www.cnn.com/ Obama press conference live feed now.
Bank bail-outs to be kept secret…
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=440824&in_page_id=2&ct=5
The money continues to pile in on Boris…
This is over.
O/T. Just to say I got a hand-written message in the post post today signed by my local Lib Dem councillors urging me to vote for them (don’t worry I will) and at pains to point out the Tories and Plaid had no chance of winning and the only alternative was ‘Russell Goodway’s Labour.’
Interesting idea, but a bit informal I thought. Still if the LDs do it, we can have hour after hour of ‘we’ve taken Cardiff’ on the election night special.
Only two days till Labour’s biggest wipeout since 1066!
As prophesied earlier, I had no inside information but it was blatantly clear that Wright attacking Obama would get a string response.
“Obama says he’s outraged by former pastor’s comments
HICKORY, N.C. (AP) - Democrat Barack Obama says he was outraged by the comments of his former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, and saddened by the spectacle of his appearance on Monday.
Wright said Monday that criticism surrounding his fiery sermons is an attack on the black church.
Obama told reporters Tuesday that Wright’s comments do not accurately portray the perspective of the black church.
Obama said, “I am outraged by the comments that were made and saddened by the spectacle that we saw yesterday.” “
Con gain worldwide