Will punters believe in a Tory majority after Thursday?
April 29th, 2008
Massive poll leads yet still the nervousness
In the past week and a bit we’ve had surveys from all five firms that do national general election polls and all have reported the same trend - a big shift to the Conservatives. The ComRes 14% lead was the last to come and overnight produced figures that would convert into a near Tory landslide at a general election.
To recap these are the latest ratings from each of the firms:-
Yet just look at the Commons seat spread betting markets above. Even with the polls all saying the same thing punters are still not convinced that we might be heading for a David Cameron majority at the next election.
But could everything change after Thursday elections? Could a Tory win in London and big successes elsewhere transform the political mood? Could now be the moment to get your general election bets on?
What strikes me is that we are in completely uncharted territory. It is now nearly thirty years since the Tories were last threatening to unseat a Labour government and we have no real reference points. In spite of the ratings nobody quite believes that a change of government is possible but could we be nearing the tipping point?
One of the site’s regular contributors, Rod Crosby, always argues that changes of government have never happened without in the preceding years the main opposition party winning seats off the governing party in Westminster by elections. I think that’s right probably right although MPs appear younger and healthier these days and there have not been as many opportunities.
But the next big development in domestic politics will be Labour’s defence of Crewe and Nantwich following the death of Gwyneth Dunwoody. We have not got a date yet but this contest provides the ideal platform for the Tories to capitalise on their likely progress this Thursday.
So for those who play the spread betting commons seat markets now might be the moment to move. Could the price panel above be the last occasion when we see the Tory BUY level being lower than the threshold for an overall majority?
Mike Smithson
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I argued this forcefully about a month or so ago, saying I couldn’t understand why the spread was so far below what the polls were suggesting. May not have convinced everyone, but convinced myself and although nervous as a rookie at betting still, glad to see it green now.
Where will Labour improve from now from? Who really thinks that in the next two years as the electorate see more of Brown and Cameron, that they will be impressed more by Brown than Cameron?
The Idiot’s Guide
… will be perfect for me.
I know I could do some research about it; but I know my time will be better spend reading your own user’s guide to the art and science of spread betting.
For those who are interested, it’s entirely unscientific but the local TV station here in Chicago just did a poll question:
“Is Jeremiah Wright hurting Barack Obama’s campaign?”
51% No, 49% Yes
The result was surprisingly low to me as those that phone in to TV polls tend to be those most animated about the issue. However we should also bear in mind that we’re talking about Chicago, Obama’s hometown and where he’s very popular. Useful tidbit though.
My own beliefs are that Clinton should now be favourite for Indiana. The state has a lot of southernness about it, and a lot of smalltown types will react badly to Wright’s latest round of comments. It’s also hit the news cycle at the worst possible time for Obama - it will filter through the news media and people’s memories just as people are making their final decision.
I now suspect Clinton will just about edge out Obama by a point or so in Indiana, while he’ll win NC by about 12. I think that will be the same situation as the results in Pennsylvania: good enough to look like a win for Clinton in the news media, but not enough to change the situation for anyone who knows the maths involved.
This is Clinton’s last chance for a big blowout - she’d need about 10 point win in Indiana while cutting down NC to under 6 or 7. If that doesn’t happen we’re well and truly into Obama falling under a bus territory for her campaign to succeed.
I still think Obama should be standout favourite for November. In a way this Wright stuff might help him for the GE - people will be so bored of it by the time of the main vote it might not even influence their decision.
Hello Socrates,
I agree with your prediction. I actually have around 1500$ at a 1.85 average on betfair on Clinton.Wins.Indiana.
The Wright Affair hit the news hard today, as you know. For those who don’t, look at MSNCM’s video sampling of tonight’s broadcast: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/22996214#24359725
I’m almost sure the GOP will make a TV ad spinning the audio tape where Wright is comparing the US. Gov to … Al-Qaeda. Even if it’s an audio, they can put a picture of Wright or something.
That would be disastrous to Obama.
Speaking of Idiot’s Guide in today’s news.
AMusing article in the Metro today.
“Why it must be Paddick”
By….. Nick Clegg
Tee hee
6. Why is that funny?
Another excellent post by Mike and I agree 100%.
If the Labour bloodbath occurs on Thursday at local level and the Tories take the Mayoral role with Boris then I think the effect will be politically seismic.
I’m glad I sold all my Labour position some months back at a profit. If you’ve spare cash now’s the time to back the Tories I think.
It certainly look like the Consrvatives are now consolidating.
And London will at be rid of nasty Red Ken. Justice is slow but sure.
Boris will give Ken a job. Something related to the Olympics.
Incidentally in case it got lost in the melee I’d like to add my congratulations again to Don. I’m sure he will forgive some of us for wariness, even cynicism. Wisdom is proved right by her actions, and you certainly got it right oh wise one!
6 - I just think it’s stupid party leaders saying they support their own candidate.
Well it amused me after a long night at work anyway.
Meanwhile the rantings of the professional Left commentariat at the prospect of Mayor Boris has reached new heights of hysteria. Priceless:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/apr/29/london08.boris
This preposterous woman is so lacking in self-awareness as to fail completely appreciate what a ludicrous self-parody she really is.
Newport Tories seem confident for Thurs. Look at this and think it is Newport. “It is the last bastion, the last socialist city in Wales,” said Matthew Evans, the gleeful Newport Conservative group leader, “and we are going to breach it.”
Polly Toynbee is the lefts very own Simon Heffer. My instinct is always to believe the opposite of what they say. As what they say is almost always Ballacks.
Key for me, Mike, will be whether Cameron can win seats north of Birmingham. I agree the Tories are doing well but two issues still worry me: Tory weakness in the North and the resilience of the Libdems in parts of the South. Thursday might allay those fears.
Which idiot is providing their guide to ‘Commons Seat Spread Betting’ ??
As for the betting on the best spread for a Commons seat …. well the early favourites must be :
Nick Soames - Plenty of form and substance in very heavy going and is a clear stayer - 10/11 fav
Lembit Optic - Most likely Lib Dem to give us a run with a form line that runs directly in the cheek(y) direction - 2/1
Mark Oaten - Well into bottom activities but his recent outings have proved to be a bums rush - 8/1
The Prime Minister - In the Brown stuff regualrly at the moment and has seen his next door seat given a spanking by the Lib Dems - 16/1
In answer to your question Mike, personally I think there are two reasons why the spread markets are ‘lagging behind’ the polls.
I think the first is that a fair number of people are sensible enough to see that the Tory leads are not coming from them pushing ahead of where they were when Cameron first came in (apart from perhaps in YouGov), more that Labour supporters are ‘withdrawing’ their support at present. The gaps in the polls, people are speculating, are perhaps artificially high. If Britain’s economy does pull through the bad times and start to pick up in time for the election the leads will start to shrink.
I think the second reason, is that the Liberal Democrat vote has started to reconsolidate. Towards the end of the Ming Dynasty, it looked as though it was starting to go into freefall, but it has picked up to the point where a lot of longstanding LD MPs can start to withstand a Tory challenge on a mixture of party support and personal vote. Furthermore, it means that if Labour are to get a kicking in the north, it may still be the LDs who gain rather than the Tories.
Just a theory.
16 - Conservative Northern weakness is a great big urban myth in many respects. Yes the Conservatives have issues in northern cities, but they have similar issues in southern cities too, and there are more cities in the north. Secondly it works well for Labour to keep parroting the line that the Conservatives aren’t viable in the north as it gives them a lever to try and prise their poll position away from them.
Our Gordon has cryed off again this morning !!!! …. after failing to appear on Fivelive with Vicoria Derbyshire yesterday he’s sent Hatty Harbottle to the BBC One morning sofa.
I can’t believe it’s this close. And two days left to go before the vote. There’s more tension than in a Harding conductor.
19 But James they are unlikely to win much in Scotland (sorry, but I included that in the North) These northern cities have suburbs, similar to ones where the Tories do well in England: nothing in Wirral, little close to Manchester, Leeds, Sheffield or Newcastle.
22 What about North Tyneside and Trafford Councils
22 Meant to write ’south of England’ in line three. I don’t believe Manchester etc are in a separate country.
23. Do they actually have a majority in North Tyneside yet? I want to see more Traffords before I am convinced. A by election win in Crewe would be more significant to my mind.
North Carolina Governor backing Clinton. I would have thought yesterday was a bad day for Obama, the polls are confusing, and it is echoed in the blogs whereby many of his supporters seem despondent.
Good job they are not Labourt supporters otherwise they might become suicicdal!
Suggests many Obama supporters are pretty new to the politidcal game and are being bloodied in the realities of politics, some days you win, some you lose.
They will need to toughen up, if as exepcted Obama, is the candidate.
Sorry did not word check, Labour, suicidal, political, I get worse
Punter. Am told reliably (none Plaid source!) that Newport is lost for Labour to a mixture of Tory and Lib dem possible Plaid gains as well…
It will be a surprise now if Labour hold Neath and Caerphilly. Heard anything about RCT? Lot of straight Plaid Labour fights…one or two colleagues worrying they might win
25 - A by-election win in Crewe would be significant, but remember that the Conservatives were progressively wiped out of large parts of the country in the 90’s. That some of them are taking longer to reassert is not unsurprising, and also Conservatives are strong in parts of the north that they don’t control. Bradford is in the North Conservatives have 32 seats to Labour’s 39. Wirral you mentioned, Conservatives 20 to Labour’s 25. Preston, Conservatives 20 to Labour’s 24.
The full list of 15 members was only announced actually at the first meeting of the new Lab-Con-Lib Scottish Constitutional Commission, held at the Scottish Parliament yesterday. Why the last minute panic? Apparently former SNP MP, MSP and Presiding Officer George Reid was ‘vetoed’ by Downing St (for being “too nationalist”, ho ho), so presumably someone else needed to be recruited at the final hour. Apparently Scottish Labour leader Wendy Alexander was in favour of Reid’s inclusion, as were the Liberal Democrats.
If they were not keen on including any ‘nationalists’ then they have failed, because I can see an awful lot of vehement nationalists in this list: British nationalists.
There will be 4 working groups:
- financial accountability, which may include aspects of the Barnett Formula and tax-raising powers
- parliamentary functions
- what evidence-base is needed for change
- public engagement
Interim report before end of 2008, final report due 2009. So nice timing for the independence referendum in 2010. “Sir Kenneth added: “The timing of the report is quite critical. Leaving it another year would mean it is not so relevant.”"
On Friday Calman said:
15 members:
- Sir Kenneth Calman, chairman of commission, chancellor of Glasgow University
- Colin Boyd, former Lord Advocate, Labour peer
- Rani Dhir, director of Drumchapel Housing Co-operative
- James Douglas Hamilton, former Scottish Office Minister, and Conservative peer
- Professor Sir David Edward, retired Judge of the European Court
- Murray Elder, Labour peer
- Audrey Findlay, former Leader of Aberdeenshire Council, now convener of the Scottish Liberal Democrats
- Jamie Lindsay, former Scottish Office Minister, chairman of Scottish Agricultural College and Conservative peer
- John Loughton, Labour, winner of ‘Big Brother: Celebrity Hijack’, president of the Scottish Youth Parliament (serving in a personal capacity)
- Murdoch MacLennan, chief executive, Telegraph Media Group
- Shonaig Macpherson, chairwoman of the National Trust for Scotland and Scottish Council Development and Industry (SCDI)
- Iain McMillan, director, CBI Scotland
- Mona Siddiqui, Professor of Islamic Studies, Glasgow University
- Matt Smith, Scottish Secretary, Unison
- Jim Wallace, former Deputy First Minister as leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, now a LibDem peer
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/39Mr-Devolution39-reveals-tough-challenges.4029007.jp
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2231911.0.Calman_Commission_members_named.php
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/7371693.stm
The full list of 15 members was only announced actually at the first meeting of the new Lab-Con-Lib Scottish Constitutional Commission, held at the Scottish Parliament yesterday. Why the last minute panic? Apparently former SNP MP, MSP and Presiding Officer George Reid was ‘vetoed’ by Downing St (for being “too nationalist”, ho ho), so presumably someone else needed to be recruited at the final hour. Apparently Scottish Labour leader Wendy Alexander was in favour of Reid’s inclusion, as were the Liberal Democrats.
If they were not keen on including any ‘nationalists’ then they have failed, because I can see an awful lot of vehement nationalists in this list: British nationalists.
There will be 4 working groups:
- financial accountability, which may include aspects of the Barnett Formula and tax-raising powers
- parliamentary functions
- what evidence-base is needed for change
- public engagement
Interim report before end of 2008, final report due 2009. So nice timing for the independence referendum in 2010. “Sir Kenneth added: “The timing of the report is quite critical. Leaving it another year would mean it is not so relevant.”"
On Friday Calman said:
15 members:
- Sir Kenneth Calman, chairman of commission, chancellor of Glasgow University
- Colin Boyd, former Lord Advocate, Labour peer
- Rani Dhir, director of Drumchapel Housing Co-operative
- James Douglas Hamilton, former Scottish Office Minister, and Conservative peer
- Professor Sir David Edward, retired Judge of the European Court
- Murray Elder, Labour peer
- Audrey Findlay, former Leader of Aberdeenshire Council, now convener of the Scottish Liberal Democrats
- Jamie Lindsay, former Scottish Office Minister, chairman of Scottish Agricultural College and Conservative peer
- John Loughton, Labour, winner of ‘Big Brother: Celebrity Hijack’, president of the Scottish Youth Parliament (serving in a personal capacity)
- Murdoch MacLennan, chief executive, Telegraph Media Group
- Shonaig Macpherson, chairwoman of the National Trust for Scotland and Scottish Council Development and Industry (SCDI)
- Iain McMillan, director, CBI Scotland
- Mona Siddiqui, Professor of Islamic Studies, Glasgow University
- Matt Smith, Scottish Secretary, Unison
- Jim Wallace, former Deputy First Minister as leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, now a LibDem peer
The full list of 15 members was only announced actually at the first meeting of the new Lab-Con-Lib Scottish Constitutional Commission, held at the Scottish Parliament yesterday. Why the last minute panic? Apparently former SNP MP, MSP and Presiding Officer George Reid was ‘vetoed’ by Downing St (for being “too nationalist”, ho ho), so presumably someone else needed to be recruited at the final hour. Apparently Scottish Labour leader Wendy Alexander was in favour of Reid’s inclusion, as were the Liberal Democrats.
If they were not keen on including any ‘nationalists’ then they have failed, because I can see an awful lot of vehement nationalists in this list: British nationalists.
There will be 4 working groups:
- financial accountability, which may include aspects of the Barnett Formula and tax-raising powers
- parliamentary functions
- what evidence-base is needed for change
- public engagement
Interim report before end of 2008, final report due 2009. So nice timing for the independence referendum in 2010. “Sir Kenneth added: “The timing of the report is quite critical. Leaving it another year would mean it is not so relevant.”"
On Friday Calman said:
“These are not rival processes. I will be using the National Conversation, especially its papers on devolution.
I hope the Scottish Government will co-operate with us.”
15 members:
- Sir Kenneth Calman, chairman of commission, chancellor of Glasgow University
- Colin Boyd, former Lord Advocate, Labour peer
- Rani Dhir, director of Drumchapel Housing Co-operative
- James Douglas Hamilton, former Scottish Office Minister, and Conservative peer
- Professor Sir David Edward, retired Judge of the European Court
- Murray Elder, Labour peer
- Audrey Findlay, former Leader of Aberdeenshire Council, now convener of the Scottish Liberal Democrats
- Jamie Lindsay, former Scottish Office Minister, chairman of Scottish Agricultural College and Conservative peer
- John Loughton, Labour, winner of ‘Big Brother: Celebrity Hijack’, president of the Scottish Youth Parliament (serving in a personal capacity)
- Murdoch MacLennan, chief executive, Telegraph Media Group
- Shonaig Macpherson, chairwoman of the National Trust for Scotland and Scottish Council Development and Industry (SCDI)
- Iain McMillan, director, CBI Scotland
- Mona Siddiqui, Professor of Islamic Studies, Glasgow University
- Matt Smith, Scottish Secretary, Unison
- Jim Wallace, former Deputy First Minister as leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, now a LibDem peer
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/39Mr-Devolution39-reveals-tough-challenges.4029007.jp
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2231911.0.Calman_Commission_members_named.php
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/7371693.stm
On the subject of Crewe and Nantwich, here’s some numbers to consider:
If the General Election result was repeated: Lab 42% Con 33% LD 25%
If Cheadle was reflected: Con 43% Lab 32% LD 25%
If the Euros in 2004 were reflected: Lab 42% Con 31% LD 27%
Current Average: Lab 39% (-10%) Con 35% (+3%) LD 26% (+7%)
and that’s before we calculate the vote in the locals. My opinion is that it will be the first Con GAIN at a by-election since Mitcham and Morden (Con GAIN from SDP) in 1982
28 Nothing on RCT. Be surprised if you get much in Newport, but such is the anti Labour feeling you may finde a home for Labour voters who find the Conservatives or even Liberal Democrats “too rightwing.” Be a relief if you do as I’ve been rather concerned such voters could end up with the BNP.
Others VoG. That is going Tory clearly.
Cardiff I think the Lib Dems are close enough to a majority they can almost touch it still tight for those last few seats though.
The Tower Hamlets Labour Party had a hard night yesteardy - at a group meeting in th etown hall!
The leader, Cllr Denise Jones was voted out by 14 votes to 11, with one abstention and one absentee, losing to Cllr Lutfur Rahman.
The former deputy leader, Cllr Sirajul Islam survived and Cllr M Abdas Salique was made Mayor elect.
Not much canvassing done there!
13 She suffers from the delusion that somehow, the views of people within the old LCC area count for more than the views of people in Outer London. She thinks that places like Wembley, Hillingdon, Enfield, Croydon, Havering, Barking & Dagenham, are all “rich white suburbs”.
Harry Hayfield - “… the first Con GAIN at a by-election since Mitcham and Morden (Con GAIN from SDP) in 1982.”
The last time the Tories won a by election in Scotland was when they took Glasgow Pollok from Labour, way way back in March 1967! Mind you, back then they were not even called ‘Conservatives’. They were still the Unionists.
Later in that same year, in November 1967, the Scottish National Party won the seminal by election victory at Hamilton (Winnie Ewing). Scottish politics has never been the same since.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2008/04/comres-tory-lea.html
Here is the Comres numbers
One key thing on seat spread betting - if you accept the Tories are on a roll - is whether to back Tories or sell Labour.
My personal calculations suggest the value is in selling Labour at the moment. The reason is one I’ve mentioned here before but is now even starket.
In the next parliament there will be 650 MPs - I calculate there will be 80 ‘others’ (48 LD and 32 nats and NI). Therefore a party has to get 286 seats - 650 minus 80 divided by 2, plus one - to be the largest single party.
At the moment the spreads on SpreadFair are Labour 263/264 and 321/323. That means the market is pricing a Conservative buy at 38 seats above the equality level and a Labour sell at only 22 below.
This suggests Labour sell value to me.
Of course, you may disagree about how many ‘others’ there will be which will change your calculations.
N.B. I have money invested on this basis.
GB is doing little harm as PM. JM was an adequate PM—the gap between public finances he inherited and what he bequeathed to TB was a great credit to him.
Of the last three PMs, only one of them wasted a golden economic legacy, and took us into a war based on what he knew was a lie. And he didn’t have the disadvantage of being PM at the fag end of his party’s time in power.
A politician should be guided by the advice given to new doctors: “First, do no harm.”
TB is a great politician. But as a PM, he did more damage than JM and GB added together.
Paul Lloyd. You start badly and get worse. There is no evidence to support your first theory that the public have not ‘embraced’ the Tories - only vain speculation from left-leaning journalists. Two years ago we were flatlining on 30% in the polls today we are consistantly over 40% - a winning percentage and 4% more than Labour got in 2005.
Then the Lib Dems, whichever way you spin things the Lib Dems are in a significantly worse position than they were in 2005; even their best polling performance is still three points off their ‘05 result - and that means one in seven of their 2005 supporters have gone awol at a time when Labour are in freefall. The last time Labour were at these levels the Lib Dems were challenging them with 24, 25 even 26% in polls in the mid ’80’s.
Their result in the London Mayoral election is going to be an embarrassment, and in my view will be a portent of things to come in 2010.
My goodness! The Scottish Tories have an even more appalling by election record than the English ones. By a long, long way. I have just browsed through the records, and the last Tory by election gain before Glasgow Pollock in 1967, was actually the Glasgow Camlachie by election… of 1948
37. ’starker’, not ’starket’.
34 However, I do enjoy reading Polly Toynbee’s articles, because it’s fun to see her dream of permanent socialism falling to pieces.
I was shocked to find out that Josef Fritzl is not a muslim!Perhaps Philippe can explain.
39 Baskerville - “N.B. I have money invested on this basis.”
I assume that you are assuming approx 9 SNP + 5 Plaid? Seems bit on the lower end of expectations, but not unreasonably so. But I think that your 48 Lib Dems looks too high in the current environment, so overall it balances out, and your total “Others” of 80 is probably quite near the mark. Mind you, if Alex Salmond is anywhere near correct with his 20 SNP seats, then you may need a contingeny calculation.
39. Baskerville
I forgot to say: I find your reasoning there to be very interesting and insightful. Thanks.
Talk of Labour bloodbath and you play right into their hands.
As always, the expectations game is in full flow.
44. As I said, Stuart, the size of ‘others’ is the key calculation. Interestingly, if I remember correctly, Jack W’s ARSE came to the same ‘others’ number yesterday (or day before).
National vote shares I predict:
Con 43% Lib 25% Lab 24%.
Boris wins in London 52/48%
Cons take Vale of Glamorgan (spelling?), Bury , North Tyneside, Cheltnham. Cons make 230 ga
Huge double digit swings towards Boris in Ealing, Brent North, Harrow and Hounslow.
230 gains
Re Crewe Nantwich: The only hope for Labour would be a sympathy vote for the Dunwoodys. However, I would have thought most unlikely that Tamsin Dunwoody would want to to move her family (5 Children) from a smallholding in Haverfordwest (so far West in Wales that it is almost off the edge) to Cheshire.
Of well then, if Jack’s arse says it’s right, it must be right! Very reassuring to know that your bank balance is dependent on such wise counsel.
601
Please do not forget that we have two by elections in Scotland on Thursday:
- Troup, Aberdeenshire (SNP defending)
- Abbey, Dumfries and Galloway (Con defending)
Would Mr 601 be prepared to hazard a prediction?
I would have a good chortle if Gordon drops below Nick in the “national” vote shares. This is going to be hilarious.
Baskerville@ 37.
Great and thoughtful post and this is what pb.com is all about.
I made the flawed decision to switch from a buy of the CONS at 300 to a sell of NULAB at 270 but redeemed the situation with a Sell of LIB DEMS at around 50.
Two factors at work.In the main line the CONS slaughter the LIB DEMS and in the secondary line everyone slaughters NULAB.
Ordinary odds betting is like a half of shandy and a roll-up.Spread betting is more like a bottle of industrial strength Scotch and an injection of something illegal…….Not for the faint-hearted !
42 Sean, interesting that her headline complaint is that Boris is effete: ie infertile, effeminate and exhausted. Surely, this is far from the Boris we know and admire?
Gordon was on GMTV this morning, discussing crime and the economy and smilling furiously with the world’s worst tv presenter, Fiona Phillips. They also discussed the Man U/Chelsea game, Gordon was well versed on the results and the scorers and the contraversial penalty, talking about his friend Mr Ferguson and their crucial match this evening…
“Troup, Aberdeenshire (SNP defending)
- Abbey, Dumfries and Galloway (Con defending)”
I predict the SNP will hold “Troyp” with a 5%+ swing towards them and Conservatives will hold “Abbey” with a tiny swing AGAINST them.
O/T from last thread — or why the East Midlands should be represented by people from the East Midlands, and not imports from Switzerland!
” Depends! If your friend is at Nottingham University then (s)he’ll probably be living either in Lenton (safe Labour, Alan Simpson retiring) or Beeston (Broxtowe!). If your friend votes Labour, say how wonderful Beeston is… Nottingham Trent Uni is a long way off, partly in the centre and partly in Clifton (Ken Clarke).” (Nick Palmer, last thread)
Absolutely astonishing — the Clifton campus (which is literally the other side of the Trent from Nick Palmer’s constituency, you can actually see it from the southside of Nick Palmer-Land) is NOT in Ken Clarke’s constituency. It is in Nottingham South — along with Clifton Village and Clifton Estate.
A small point maybe — but it certainly shows Nick Palmer is someone who has ZERO knowledge of the city he purports to represent. Clifton is reportedly the largest council estate in Europe — and Nick seems to believe it is in the leafy suburbia and South Nottinghamshire countryside of Rushcliffe.
To give Londoners an idea, it is like the MP for Brentford and Isleworth saying Chiswick is south of the river in the constituency of Richmond.
O/T Obama over 1.3 on betfair for dem nom.
55, how shocking that the only interview Gordon deigns to do is with GMTV. I’m still surprised he cried off the BBC one, they’re hardly anti-Labour.
Those who think Labour will lose 100’s of seats on Thursday should beware . They are defending around 750 seats in England the vast majority of which were also contested last year . The polls last year were not a great deal better for them than they are now but they still won around 720 of these wards gaining a few and losing a few more . Many of their wards are very safe even with the present very low national vote share and there will be a few seats they will gain easily for example those lost to defectors .
We shall see later this week but my best estimate for Labour losses is around 100 -150 in England .
O/T Con Home reporting that Kate Hoey will advise Boris on sport if he wins.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/londonmayor/2008/04/labours-kate-ho.html
I’ve got a friend who is a labour activist in her constituency - I look forward to his reaction!
Gordon talking about Football!!, Well that was an easy ride wasnt it, compared to the grilling on R4 that Cameron got.
O/T - ConHome reporting Kate Hoey to advise Boris on sport, if he is elected mayor. More mobiles bouncing off the walls in No 10, I think…
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/londonmayor/2008/04/labours-kate-ho.html
63. Animal - get out of my head!
39: Marcus, the evidence that the electorate hasn’t embraced the Tories is in most polls that ask detailed questions: if asked whether Cameron and the party are coherent, strong, competent, etc., the answer is usually lukewarm or worse. They do fine at the moment in contrast with the other parties, including the voting question, but the current public mood is not enthusiastic about anyone.
59. When you have 8 highly paid spin doctors like McBroon - of course they want to keep him away from any tough interview - esp on Radio 5 live where a member of the public might actually speak to him.
Great cartoon in the Tele today
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/Cartoon/OpinionCartoonFrag.jhtml;jsessionid3VG5IM24ATMDRQFIQMFSFF4AVCBQ0IV0?RangeStartValue=1
Baskerville 37. That was one of the points I was going to make. There is simply more opportunity for movement with Labour seats.
Hoey to serve with Boris if he becomes Mayor - Polotics home.
WOW!!!
64 - hmm. Dark in here, isn’t it?
37. You can still write it, Mike. Mine is only a sketch.
57: Whoops! A fair cop.
But I don’t purport to represent Nottingham, you know. I represent Broxtowe.
601 - “I predict the SNP will hold “Troyp” with a 5%+ swing towards them and Conservatives will hold “Abbey” with a tiny swing AGAINST them.”
That sounds like an entirely reasonable and informed prediction effort. But two caveats: the presence of a Labour candidate (absent in 2007), and absence of an Ind, alters the contest somewhat in Troup. But Abbey looks by far the more interesting contest: almost impossible to say how it will pan out without good ‘on-the-ground’ intelligence.
68 Mayoralty of all the talents?
68. With Frank Field off to the wilderness its only the rats left on the sinking ship ?
Another US poll to add to the confusion.
Zogby taken 25 - 28 April
Pres make up MCc 44% Clinton 34% 15% undeceided
Another US poll to add to the confusion.
Zogby taken 25 - 28 April
Pres make up MCc 44% Clinton 34% 15% undeceided
Another US poll to add to the confusion.
Zogby taken 25 - 28 April
Pres make up MCc 44% Clinton 34% 15% undeceided
57
I wondered about this myself when I saw Nick’s comments about the universities.
I suspect it comes from only ever having travelled through the area by road since the main entrances to the two universities are off different exits from the ring road and can appear to be some distance from each other with the Lenton Industrial estate in the middle.
But as you say, one would expect better of someone who is supposed to represent the a constituency in the city.
I like the Hoey move. Really undermines the Labour hierachy’s message that Boris is some sort of hate figure. The London mayoralty trancends party politics in the main for Londoners - that’s why Paddick scores less than Lib Dems nationally, Ken can win without a party to back him and Boris can attract a coalition of supporters (like me) who are not normally conservative voters.
75-77
If you had really wanted to screw with pepoles heads you could have done that triple posting with different figures in each one
71 Nick, I give you credit for admitting the mistake.
I have never been enthusiastic about constituencies being represented by MPs who have no roots in the area (all parties do it, I know).
Labour in particular have repeatedly parachuted candidates into safe Welsh Valley seats who have no connections to the area (e.g. Peter Hain in Neath).
Sorry here is the rest-
Pres make up MCc 42 Obama 45 not sure 8
Who do Democrats think be the nominee
Cl 20%
Obama 63%
Who should be President
MCc 45
Obama 40
Clinton 11
Who shares your values in a Pres make up
MCc 48 Cl 37
MCc 48 Obama 44
Also - Hoey must believe youGov if she’s announcing this before the election
62 Bottler Brown can only cope with “easy rides” and runs away from straight fights, which is why he’ll probably resign as PM before the next general election when it becomes apparent to him that he is in for an almighty thumping if he stands against Cameron.
69. I’m a Tory - of course it is!
Unlike our enlightened PM’s mind, where all is bright and full of fluffy bunnys…
I know Stuart Dickson likes the Scottish subsample extracts from polls however small the samples so here are the Scottish ones from the latest Monitor SNP 36 Lab 33 LibDem 18 Con 9
and the Welsh ones on a very very small sample size Lab 40 Con 33 LibDem 15 Plaid 3 ( yes only 1 Plaid voter in the sample .
65
Governments lose elections, oppositions do not. If we had a General Election this Thursday, you would lose bigtime.
74 Is it now dawning on Frank Field that he was lied to by Brown over compensation for those effected by the abolition of the 10p rate?:
“Field issues 10p tax deal warning”
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7370967.stm
Very significant move by Hoey - makes Boris inclusive - gives confidence to the olympics run up being handled in the interests of londoners and makes it ok for labour voters to vote for Boris
“One of the site’s regular contributors, Rod Crosby, always argues that changes of government have never happened without in the preceding years the main opposition party winning seats off the governing party in Westminster by elections. I think that’s right probably right although MPs appear younger and healthier these days and there have not been as many opportunities.”
I think my argument has always been a bit more subtle than that, Mike. Winning a byelection is neither a necessary nor sufficient condition for an opposition to go on to win the election. The Tories didn’t 1950-1 but won the election, and the opposition did 1945-50, 1955-59, 1964-6, 1979-83, 1983-7, 1987-92 but failed in the election. Too much depends on chance, the marginality, the timing in the cycle, the previous general election result, and win/lose in any case is too blunt a measure of success, as Labour discovered in Northfield in 1982….
That is why I have always chosen a standardised metric that is comparable between and across elections: swing. Under the curious FPTP system which permits a party to gain seats while losing votes (so long as its main competitor is losing votes faster), swing remains the obvious and robust measure of Lab/Con competition.
And it shows..god how it shows!
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/byelections.jpg
About 96% of a party’s general election swing can be explained by its by-election performance. A near perfect correlation…
At the moment the swing to the Tories stands at an unimpressive 4.4%, implying a pathetic 1% or 2% swing to them at the general election. Labour could well retain a majority if that materialises.
Of course, the world has turned upside down since the average swing was last computed after Sedgefield and Southall. Labour soared like a rocket and has apparently fallen like a stick.
That is why Crewe and Nantwich is so critical for the Tories. If the opinion polls are to be believed, we should see a step-change in Tory fortunes. There are no excuses available to explain away a poor result in this by-election. I believe the Tories should obtain a swing of at least 10% (gaining the seat in the process) to demonstrate they are on course to be largest party, and 15% to indicate a possible majority.
Hopefully for the Tories, there will also be some confirmation of a step-change in the local elections and the London results.
If the Tories don’t meet these benchmarks, I for one will draw the conclusion that opinion polls (at least in mid-term) do not accurately measure voting intention. They must be measuring some other quantity…
Zim: Despite the CIO (Secret police) running amok in rural areas, the collapse of the economy may be about to deliver the coup de grace to Zanu-PF. The Zim $ has fallen 50% in a week (now 100,000,000: $1 US) and thousands are crossing into SA, which might wake up even the craven Mbeki. Zanu-PF infighting is now in the open. One faction asking for “government of national unity”, while diminishing bunch of hardliners still willing to create a bloodbath. International pressure still said in Harare to be key. The return of Chinese weapons as result of SA dockers boycott was big morale booster. MDC now talking about “reconstruction, not retribution”. One scenario says Presidential results may be released Thursday, with RGM stepping down gracefully to avoid run off- negotiations said to be close to breakthrough. Nevertheless atmosphere is fearful and confusion reigns.
Idiots Guide. Excellent. Got my name all over it.
WTF?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7372660.stm
He asks the questions, it is totally within his power to adopt any tone he wants. Are there inner voices egging him on? Has Cameron has gone crazy. Who is the rat at the controls of his brain?
39. Good to see Marcus lifting up his skirt and dashing off a quickie before her morning constitutional along Torbay promenade !!
http://uktv.co.uk/images/uktvSeries/1083_large.jpg
Voodoo alert - shock new mayor poll shows outsider ahead
http://www.eastlondonadvertiser.co.uk/raceformayor/mayorELA/Default.aspx
[90] Rod, have you re-done the calculation ignoring by-elections in the first two years of a Parliament (and by definition, Parliaments lasting less than two years)?
I’d expect a better fit.
13 Re Polly Toynbee’s article. This comment was left on her page:
“This is no newspaper, it’s a Tory campaign sheet more virulent than any previous one I can remember.”
Just as the Guardian is the most virulent of the Labour campaign sheets. Oh, the irony.
“Rumour has it that this is the loss-making paper’s swansong, so it doesn’t care how many readers it bores to death.”
Evening Standard circulation (just London) - 284,030
Guardian circulation (nationwide) - 358,142
Guess you could say the same about your rag too, Polly!
20. He was due to appear on the Today progrAmme aswell but cancelled at the last minute. They rushed around to find someone spare to fill the gap. Cleggy obliged.
93 You and the BBC are scraping the barrel Janathan. Clearly, you don’t have anything more substantial to fling at Cameron. It just shows how well he’s doing, unlike yer man Brown.
Apart from this mornings cosy chat with his mate Baroness Phillips, can we take it that Brown has bottled every other invitation from the media in this pre-election fortnight, particularly those where he may actually be confronted by real members of the public?
Courage my @rse!
With the gap between Labour and Lib Dems in the polls closing to the point where it is feasible that the LDs will start polling above Labour and the strong probability that the LDs will overtake Labour in the “equivalent voteshare” at these elections, it is time for the LDs to reassess their strategy.
There is also the possibility that the LDs will have almost as many councillors as Labour in 2010. Meanwhile the distance between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems in the polls has doubled to 20 or more.
There are now for the Lib Dems easier pickings in Labour seats and a position of retrenchment in the areas where their main challenge is the Conservatives.
Last night did Paddick signal a shift in the LD strategy by gunning for the “bogeyman” of Labour rather than the previous focus on Conservatives?
82 dave(s) Thanks for that. Filling in the minor candidates too :
McCain 44% .. Clinton 34% .. Nader 3% .. Barr 4%
McCain 42% .. Obama 45% .. Nader 1% .. Barr 3%
Sample 7,653 !! MoE +/- 1.1%
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1490
99 I’m not flinging anything, just reading what the great man said about himself. It’s a bit weird for a man who utterly delights in the PMQ soundbite to somehow claim it is the situation that make it difficult to be constructive. I have huge respect for what Cameron has done for the Tories, but this comment is truely bizarre.
97 At least the Guardian doesn’t exert a monopoly on the capital. All the best sites are owned by the Standard/Metro/London Lite group. But quite frankly it should be possible for Ken to win despite their campaign against him.
During this campaign, it has been rather amusing to see Boris cash in all his chips with his old hack buddies. He really does inspire loyalty doesn’t he? Whilst this is not great for political balance and scruitny of HIS credentials, I suppose it bodes well for him as a manager.
The news that Kate Hoey is going to advise Boris is an indication of what kind of administration Boris will run. From what I’ve read about him, Boris Johnson has always been an excellent delegator. Is always prepared to listen to the best advice, but has got a very clear idea in his own mind of what he wants to achieve and how to achieve it. I think his administration for London is going to be massive surprise to those that are expecting him to fall flat on his face.
There is still something of the herd to political betting. Perhaps the housewives are waiting for their appointed favourite.
It is surprising how they can get it so wrong, flipping from one view to they other on particular events and otherwise taking so long to move when the writing is on the wall (i’m talking about UK majority).
However, there is free money is still to be made on a Cons Majority. It seems they havent changed.
Someone here (forgot name sorry) tipped me I can get 2.5 on any Cons majority. It doesnt look as that has changed. If seasoned betters wait till after May 1st, that free money will disappear.
OT: Idly clicked the link provided by Charles yesterday.
http://ipswift.com/
Yesterday it said I was in the UK near London, today UK near Harrogate. I had switched the machine off between the two readings -presumably I have a new IP address - but where does the location come from?
20- jackW I do not think Gordo does mornings very well,
there again he doesn’t do afternoons, evenings, nights…….
Oh dear, oh dear- poor Gordon
101 I felt Paddick’s attitude toward Boris changed because he feels Boirs is on course to win and because of Boris’s obliging flattery.
I suspect this is a Paddick move rather than a Lib Dem move.
10 “Boris will give Ken a job. Something related to the Olympics.”
Something with a namebadge or a Hot dog cart perhaps.
How dare people critcise Polly? she is undoubtedly the best columnist in the world, if not the universe!
Kate Hoey was snuggling up to Frank Field in the commons yesterday, she was the only person to sit near him. Someone must have upset her - she clearly enjoys embarrassing the Government. Sorry but Field looked a smug so and so, I can see why he p1sses people off.
95 Ken “polling below 10%” shocker!!
That is one seriously freeped poll.
96. A better fit? better than 96%? Most statisticians would give their right arms to find a stronger regression line.
I actually got the R-squared up to 99% if I included a dummy variable based on whether the opposition was perceived as particularly ineffective or divided [1983,1987,2005]. Interestingly, other dummies, PM change, opposition leader change, number of terms, Lab or Con, etc did not improve the regression.
A two-year cutoff seems arbitrary to me. I’d rather let the unadjusted data speak for itself..
There’s been a significant move to Hillary on the Iowa Exchanges. In recent days she’s been trading around 17. This morning she’s up at 23 :
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Nomination08_quotes.html
17 Jack W is an idiot. Perhaps he could write it in crayon.
65 Nick Palmer “the evidence that the electorate hasn’t embraced the Tories is in most polls that ask detailed questions”
What about the evidence that there are now more Conservative councillors than the combined total for Labour and the Lib Dems?
Looks like the voters have embraced the Conservatives.
Hoey, Paddick etc. - always a good idea to board the gravy train before it leaves the station. They clearly know which way the wind is blowing…
115. My stalking donkey is back !!
115 One day, if you work hard, study and make a real effort to understand the world around you - you too might attain the level of idiot. Until then you’ll have to settle for less.
But will the wind blow the gravy off the train
110 Polly is OK … matthew jcg partridge is better … but gabble is best of all.
gabble syndicated to the National Press would substantially increase the country’s mirth.
103, I thought London also had a number of free newspapers, in addition to the national ones such as that paragon of impartiality: the Guardian?
116 “Looks like the voters have embraced the Conservatives.”
Largest party of local and European politics - just have to sit it out until 2010 while Gordon “does a Hillary” and wait to become the partyof national Govt. too.
Related, anyone hear Huhne on Simon Mayo yesterday? He came across very well, I thought. His case was well presented and argued - all apart from where he tried to suggest that because the LibDems run second in the south and the north, that somehow made them the only truly national party!! Had me abusing the radio, that one!
119 Jonathan. Ouch !!
Naughty but funny …. however Mike’s having a ‘be kind to idiots week’ so it’s best to be more tolerant of ‘Horse’.
115 Oi, Horse, knock it off. You do not want to p1ss off the crayon-writing fraternity on this Board. We are numerous - and we like the pretty colours….
According to Sky’s blog, this is the view of the race from Westminster:
‘Most MPs at Westminster - Labour, Tory and Lib Dem - accept that Boris is ahead on first preferences. But many believe wily old Ken will scrape home on second preferences.’
Labour in denial, LD cluelessness and Tory expectation management, or a real assessment?
Who knows.
The point about people still being luke-warm to the conservatives is that the Tories haven’t yet explained to people why they should vote for them. They unvelieled policies or an ideology. In time this will have to come, but for now they are sitting back and watching the government impolode. This should actually put the fear of god into the likes of Nick Palmer, because the Tories are showing small leads in most policy areas, despite not yet having policys. What does that tell you about how the public feels towards Labour? As soon as the Conservatives start adding flesh to bones of their policy areas, your going to see them taking massive leads on all subjects and Labour may become penned in at arouns 26-27% of the vote.
My local election vote share prediction is;
Con 42% Lab 23 Lib 25%
122 London has three free newspapers. Two of the three come from the same printing press as the Standard and recycle the same stories. In total the Standard publish 3/4 of London’s print media. They have all the best distribution sites. I call that a monopoly. Only Murdoch dares challenge it.
121, 115 Clearly today is a slow news day.
Some people must be feeling insecure if they have to slag people off.
re 81 and Shaun Woodward is a Merseysider through and through. Still I suppose he at least gives employement opportunities to unemployed Liverpudlian butlers.
127 As soon as conservatives start to formulate detailed policies it will put the fear of god into many voters and their poll lead will shrink . Their best option is to stay policyless and principleless as long as possible .
127 “the Tories haven’t yet explained to people why they should vote for them”
Maybe this is the future of politics, Politics is all about sound nd fury.
Labour were always able to win debates using Fake Outrage… Emotion manipulation… ignoringquestions… and Lies even - remember Labour’s promise on a Treaty Referendum?
They won by drowning out their opponent and dominating the ether. The Vampire Alex Hilton was trying the same last night, while conservative bloggers answer in calm, rational and logical tones.
We know what each party represents and for some parties, it is the opposite of what they say.
Perhaps quiet is the way to go.
128 So, it was insecurity that caused you to write post 119 was it. As you say, “people must be feeling insecure if they have to slag people off.”
Your posts on press monopoly come across as whining, petulant and absurd. New Labour have had plenty of time to act to break up the press oligarchs, They didn’t because, until recently, the press was largely favourable and New Labour acted — not from principle — but from self-interest. If New Labour acted from principle, I would still be voting for them.
Poor Jonathan went for a walk with a tiger … and now he is complaining that the tiger has poor table manners.
130. Lol - as a pose to multiple policies depending on which ward you are contesting a la LDs ?
‘Their best option is to stay policyless and principleless as long as possible’
That hasn’t helped the Lib Dems much, has it?
Re Kate Hoey: Loved this comment from Ken Livingstone as reported on the BBC’s website:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/7372823.stm
‘Labour mayor Ken Livingstone said Ms Hoey had been “a sort of semi-detached member of the party in recent years”.’
So not at all like Ken Livingstone then!
GIN - A little more complicated than that. As soon as the Conservatives start adding flesh to the bones such as increased taxes on 4 x 4s, students (tuition fees), and to pay for their spending promises such as higher spending on the armed forces, and at least held spending elsewhere.
Plus what they are going to do with the EU.
Sit back and watch the wheels fall off big time!
128 The 115 post was a belated response to his agressive post a couple of days ago.
But, yes leftie person. I am feeling very insecure.
Insecure about my looks, my height and my manhood.
Although mostly insecure about if to make ends meet with the British economy run by Labour retards.
Did you know Harriet Harman’s username was harriet/harman?
Still no sign of breakdown of ComRes on their site, or did I miss it overnight?
129 Agreed.
Shaun Woodward’s deserted and empty terraced house in St Helen’s is the perfect symbol of the hole at the heart of New Labour.
130. We’ll see.
[127] Always assuming that the policy flesh the Tories produce stnads up to scrutiny… if I were as far ahead in the polls as the Tories are, I’d think - it ain’t broke, don’t fix it - and stay policy-lite as long as possible.
What GIN means is that he personally favours a flat tax, scrapping the NHS, selling off the BBC, abolishing equalities and/or health & safety legislation, criminalising trade unions and/or immigrants (or some such mix) and is hacked off that his party of choice isn’t promising these things.
137-horsey- oh you by chance of Austrian lineage, with some strange secret in your cellar?
Just a thought!
130 Until after the election and beyond.
This is a well trod path. Not having policies is what traditional pre-Heath Toryism is all about. They just have to project themselves as nice, reasonable people who have “the nation’s best interest at heart”. Genius really. It all unravels eventually. One day even Boris will look like an out of touch old buffer.
132 Eh? I said that Ken should win anyway despite the Standard’s campaign. That’s hardly whining is it?. Anyway, the specifics