Is a turnout bet good insurance for Boris backers?
April 30th, 2008
The 11/8 on more than 43% seems like value bet
As can probably be gathered from the content of recent posts I am quite long on Boris. My reading of the polls it that he stands a very good chance of winning on Friday and I’ve been betting accordingly.
The only circumstance I can foresee of him not making it is if there is a very high turnout. One senior Labour spinner told me yesterday that he thought Ken would romp home if it got to the 50% level. I think there is something in that.
So to part cover my Boris win bets I’ve been betting on a high turnout. You can get 11/8 with William Hill that it will be 43% or more which seems like good value.
Last time the turnout was just under 37% but that race was never really seen as being close and was certainly not getting the media attention that we have seen this time.
One factor that could impact on turnout levels are the registered voter numbers. Last night’s story about the high level of people who are not on the roll could actually boost the proportion - which will, of course, be the number of votes cast divided by the total number who are registered.
So if you are long on Boris give Billy Hill a call.
The joy of the position is that both bets could come up.
UPDATE: Ipsos-MORI have produced a fascinating presentation on the impact of turnout on the final result. Their main conclusion based on the data from their final poll is that 40% is the critical level. Below that it is Boris - above Ken.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
…or not Mike - Betting should carry a health warning!!!
Boss, do you have a personal turnout prediction? In 2005 GE turnout in greater London was 57.8%
And for pb.ers in general, are you sensing that average voters (as opposed to wackoids such as ourselves) are motivated to go vote this time?
Good news–the price has drifted to 7/4. Bad news–they only laid me £200.
Mike, have to say that is one of the most ridiculous things i’ve heard so far throughout this campaign.
The insurance bet must surely be to back Livingstone @ 2/1 as opposed to taking 11/8 about a high turnout. Although highly unlikely, Ken might still win with the share of the vote under 43%
I certainly am- everyone in my office (central Lndon based) is voting- roughly 66% voted last time.
However they are often perplexed by the voting system despite being, I would think, at the upper end of the education scale. They simply cant understand the two columns on the ballot papers- would be much better if they were asked to rank in order of prefernce using 1,2,3 etc… As for the assembly voting system they cant get their heads round the fact that if the Cons win a large number of constituency seats there is no point in voting for them on the list.
I get the distinct impression that you are really enjoying this Mike. Good! So am I. I don’t usually pay much attention to English politics, but this is too hilarious for words. Gordon is done for.
willhill
already changed his ‘43 % And Over’ to 7/4.
5. no amount of education can force people to be intelligent.
who are the other 2 voting for?
6. Stuart, seeing that, Union issue aside, Labour and the SNP occupy very similar positions on the political spectrum, is there any chance the SNP could actually replace Labour in Scotland during a period of Conservative resurgence?
At odds of 7/4, if you think the chance of turnout exceeding 43% is greater than a 37% chance you should take this bet….
If you think the chance is better than 50/50 you should bet big…
8- My turn t be thick I am afraid- I don’t undestand your question!!
(Stupid question alert): Does turnout includes postal votes?
The 7/4 is colossal value, I think.
I’ll be keeping a close eye on postal vote turnout in LBTH, don’t you worry.
Is there a market on “likelihood of result being decided by lawyers”?
If someone puts both their 1st and 2nd preference vote to the same person, do they just count that as someone voting 1st preference only or is the whole ballot paper spoiled?
[4] - I think this bet of Mike’s is only half-heartedly insurance against Boris losing, and I suspect that not only is he convinced that Ken is so unlikely to win on a turnout below 43% he can ignore the possibility, but there also exists the tantalising possibility of Boris winning on a high-ish turnout, such that both bets pay out.
The Superdelegates are starting to come out of the wood work …. Five today, three to Obama and two to Clinton. Hillary needs for them to break for her by a ratio of around 3/1.
WHY DID WRIGHT ATTACK OBAMA?
The NYP have this to offer:
The Rev. Jeremiah Wright would be happy to see Barack Obama’s presidential campaign derailed because the pastor is fuming that his former congregant has “betrayed” their 20-year relationship,The Post has learned.
“After 20 years of loving Barack like he was a member of his own family, for Jeremiah to see Barack saying over and over that he didn’t know about Jeremiah’s views during those years, that he wasn’t familiar with what Jeremiah had said, that he may have missed church on this day or that and didn’t hear what Jeremiah said, this is seen by Jeremiah as nonsense and betrayal,” said the source, who has deep roots in Wright’s Chicago community and is familiar with his thinking on the matter.
“Jeremiah is trying to defend his congregation and the work of his ministry by saying what he is saying now,” the source added.
Here: http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/04/was_it_revenge_or_something_el.html
17. Clinton’s SD leads slip below 20…
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/
blooming ‘ell, she dropped another in the last hour. Now 18
VOTER TURNOUT
I just wanna be sure before firing any money : does ‘Voter Turnout’ includes ‘Postal Voters’, or only live voters?
19
Still at 23 : http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=177134
Turnout in 2004 was 36.95% Turnout in 2000 was 34.43% - why are we expecting 43%+ on this rainy day? I don’t know, just seems like giving Hills money..
Postal voters that the Post Office manage to get there on time should be counted. A better question is what about spoilt papers - there could be a lot of them someone should check if they are included in turnout.
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 45% .. Clinton 46%
McCain 46% .. Obama 44%
Clinton 47% .. Obama 46%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106918/Gallup-Daily-Virtual-Tie-Persists-Democratic-Race.aspx
22 - I’m also a bit dubious - does anyone have figures for turnout in 2006 locals in London?
16
Now that the price is 7/4 the bet is a little more attractive i agree. But i still think that is too pricey @ 36%. That means Hills make it 28% (5/2). With the forecast set for rain i think the bet is ever more risky than backing Ken to win.
re 4. You clearly didn’t read my post properly. My advice is for people already with longish Boris positions. My readim - the only real chance of Ken doing it is if turnout is high. The 7/4 43% offering from Hills gives you a real possibility of winning both bets and offers some insurance should Ken do it.
15 said “Is there a market on “likelihood of result being decided by lawyers”?”
You may joke. I had a dream a couple of weeks ago that Boris had won by fifty votes after several recounts. Ken was sat in the corner huddled with his legal advisor refusing to talk to the press- it was such a picture it’s a shame I had to wake up!
I took this bet earlier, and still think it’s good value, but my one worry is the weather. It’s been pretty appalling in Oxford today. Put me off going out to return some overdue library books anyway…
An interesting market would be when the result is called:
Friday morning 50/1
1200 - 1800 Friday 10/1
1801 - 2400 Friday 3/1
Saturday
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/24hr.shtml?world=0008
Should be fine(ish) if you vote early… (apparantly)
re 22. There has been a lot of cleaning up of the electoral register since 2004. The old system in some parts of many entries just carrying forward to the next electoral roll without a form being filled in has changed. This of itself could put a couple of percent on the turnout figure without any change in voting patterns.
Mugabe has managed to get Tsangavarai’s vote down to 47%.
Is there anyone other than me who hasn’t heard of any of Ken’s high profile backers??
Ken Livingstone’s campaign today released the names of prominent individuals supporting his re-election.
Among these people are London fashion designer Ozwald Boateng, as well as Vivienne Westwood who has previously announced her support; Oscar winning actor Emma Thompson; David Campbell, Chief Executive of O2, London’s most successful new music and culture venue who has brought bands like the Rolling Stones and Led Zeppelin to play live shows in the capital, and social justice activist Bianca Jagger.
Many of the supporters are backing Ken because of the strong stance he has taken against the war in Iraq.
These include Bloc Party, Vivienne Westwood, Adrian Sherwood (on-u sound), Ed Simons (chemical brothers), Sean Rowley, Stephen Duffy and the Lilac Time, Ashley Beedle (X - Press II), Duke Spirit, Beardyman, Trojan Soundsystem, Ralph Steadman, Chas Smash (Madness), Captain Sensible, Susie Orbach.
14 - You’re a cynic, I am sure there are many council flats in Shadwell that can house up to 50 people.
Superdelegate with close personal ties to the Clintons, Congresswoman Lois Capps of California, endorses Obama :
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9976.html
Sorry posted too early was going on to Sunday and after Zimbabwe declares
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9976.html
if this superdelegate isn’t going to support clinton, then who is?
Will Hill
I did not find on http://www.willhill.com/iibs/FR/allsportsandcoupons.asp?sport=PO
any specification regarding the ‘Voter Turnout’ bet: which SOURCE will they use?
And, as Icarus pointed out, ‘what about spoilt papers?’ — will they be counted as turnout?
My guess is that WillHill will use a government source. Which one?
P.S. I’m sorry, guys, I’m from Canada. I promised to answer any questions when the elections betting will be in Canada!
37 etc - on a sensible note when (exactly) did we get the declarations last time?
39 - Turnout will surely include spoilt ballots and definitely postal votes.
34 - I had heard of (but know nothing about) Vivienne Westwood and Emma Thompson and Bianca Jagger rings a bell. The rest - no idea!
34. I’ve heard of Vivienne Westwood, Emma Thompson, Bianca Jagger and Captain Sensible. I guess I’m not young or ‘hip’ any more.
41. Thank you for answering my just-wanna-be-real-sure question.
34 a few others
Sean Rowley - DJ on BBC London
Stephen Duffy - 1980’s singer previously known as Stephen Tintin Duffy
Susie Orbach - author of seveties ‘classic’ Fat is a Feminist Issue.
43 they only have one vote. high profile backers imho are irrelevant
39, 44 - I would expect Will Hill to payout on Turnout as officially declared, which should include spoilt ballots. To look at previous turnout, and how I would expect them to find the information ‘officially declared’ the LondonElects website is quite good. - http://www.londonelects.com/results/2004_london_assembly_results/2004_turnout_and_technical.aspx
I think Ken has had a very good last day of the campaign, despite the spaz over YouGov, which I suspect he may live to regret. The Boris the joke line has not been well articulated by his campaign until today, mainly due to their attachment to the Boris the Nazi line, which many of us noted from the start was deeply flawed and unconvincing. Had Ken settled on the new line of attack earlier I think the campaign may have taken a very different shape.
As it is I think Boris has done enough to get home with a modest degree of comfort. For the sake of my wallet I certainly hope so!
Prediction for tomorrow:
Boris 41 / 53
Ken. 35 / 47
Very good of Ken to state in advance that the Govt would not be to blame if he loses. I hope he retains that dignified approach if this is the end result.
Mike
Your comment was read loud and clear.
You advised a value bet @ 11/8 (42%!!!) and now your have the respite of the price now being even bigger 7/4 (36%).
So let me get this straight…you think if there is a high turnout Ken could win? I agree. So as insurance you back an 11/8 shot in case Ken wins.
Now your saying we can all win if there is a high turnout as well? Your contradicting yourself. If Hills make it 7/4 (36%) they must make it less…maybe as high as 30%…but you were just advising 42%???
What percentage do you make Boris to win? 60%, 70%, 80%?
47 I heard Vivienne Westwood on Radio 5 Live last Friday, espousing her political beliefs and informing us that within 20 years half of London would be under water. She then went on to say how she would never vote Labour, but in the next breath endorsed Ken Livingstone - all very odd.
50 Wasn’t Westwood backing Cameron in the newspapers a few months ago?
50. odd indeed….but at least she;s consistently odd.
O/T but I really want to go into the market on a Tory win at Crewe & Nantwich before tomorrow’s bloodbath in the locals. Anyone know if odds are being offered yet?
someone has just stuck 19k backing Boris at 1.43 on betfair
Excellent clip on YouTube of Harriett Hairperson who can’t make up her mind whether Kate Hoey is supporting Boris,or Labour,or sport but maybe not Ken.
BLOODY HELL!
Someone has put down £18,000 for Boris Johnson at 1.43!!!!!
Wow.
My Mrs got paid today. £5 less despite doing overtime. Thanks a bunch Gordon. Yet again he has shafted the very people he should be looking after (working Mums). No wonder half the country would rather sit on it’s backside and claim benefits. Just hope that the electorate sees sense tomorrow and takes the first step in removing this shower from Westminster. Rant over.
56. Now it has been withdrawn….
56. Now it has been withdrawn….
50 presumably she missed the news that Global Warming has been delayed?
Due apparently to the weakening of meridional overturning circulation (MOC) which puts off resumption of rising temperatures until at least 2015
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/04/30/eaclimate130.xml
Seems the climate models didn’t include this or El Nino/La Nina. While remaining more on the side of human induced climate change these are major climatic influences to miss out. Doesn’t help convince the sceptics.
55. Probably a bookie trying to balance their books.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,550351,00.html
OT and perhaps one of the most potent comments in the Dem race. I suspect that it reflects a truth but at the same time suggests that it could, if they are not careful, be an achilles heel for the Dems in November.
Taken to a certain level of white/black race based voting, the Desm could actually lose the big race.
O/T Driving back from London after a morning meetings I heard Ginger Spice on 5 live being very helpful to the Tories - told Justine Greening what a nice boss she had in George Osborne (who she had met at some do together with Mrs Osborne and daughter) and then chipping in on unfairness of hitting older cars with increased vehicle tax - can they do that? isn’t it illegal? unfair etc.
Can Cameron get the Spice Girls back on the right side?
Boris at 1.4 on BF and little money to follow that, could go off at 1.25.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/04/barack-obama–2.html
Obama doing TV interview with wife. Could effect the race.
64. I have completely exposed myself to Boris now.
I’ve got a huge amount of money riding on him.
BoJo: Don’t let me down!!!
66. Same here. It’s curtains if Ken flukes it!
12. Yes PVs are part of the turnout because they are votes innit.
15. Yes it’s OK, no it’s not spoilt the whole thing.
20. Yes.
66
If you can lay off at the right odds then do it, no one ever went broke taking a profit as they say in the city.
Other City/trader joke (jewish)
‘I used to be a stockbroker, I had too much stock and I went broke’.
EDW gets his coat.
65. am not sure Michelle Obama is much of an asset for Barack
There is going to be rather a lot of egg on Tory faces tomorrow methinks.
64 Yes, I heard that too Ted, it was quite amusing in that Justine seemed to be giving the impression that she was Shadow Chancellor until Ginger put her right - “Surely that’s George Osborne isn’t it?”
Still, mustn’t be too hard on my own MP.
Has anyone said anything about postal votes.
73. Not yet
71. Ghost of Livingstone Trolls.
I don’t take any of this crap from anyone who isn’t a regular poster with an established reputation.
Desperate, desperate stuff.
71. Different time, different universe.
You lefties need to start preparing yourselves for the worst..wishful thinking is just going to make the pain of defeat even harder to accept.
Mike/Paul how many entries have been received for the PB London Mayoralty competition and may one ask what the average result shows?
With the combined intelligence of the PB community involved, surely this should give us a definitive indicator?
I didn’t realise that the Tories were having a tiff over Johnson still.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/apr/30/london.conservatives
Interesting that Johnson failed to show for ANOTHER debate. It might be the safe option from a campaigning view with one day to go, but boy it doesn’t breed confidence in the man should he win.
As Mike has suggested himself “1.3 fair value” Boris is going to trade much much lower ahed of results. If Boris backers are scared, just sit on your hands until 1.2 or so, then lay off some of you lump. The only new piece of info we’ll have is the new yougov poll and its highly likely to show a good-sized Boris victory.
Even if Ken wins tomorrow, Boris’s price will be shockingly short before the result. *taps nose*
Wanabee Ken backers should wait back him tomorrow toward the death - you might get 4-1 or 5-1.
Did anybody read Simon Heffers attack on Boris in the Telegroah today?
Heffer is such a sour faced old misery guts! His kind of whinging blustering, whinging right wing fanaticism makes me sick. This guy think we’re still living in the 1950’s and isn’t prepared to face up to the fact that Britain has changed forever and his kind of sour, melancholy, uninspiring extreme right wingery will NEVER win a majority of British people. He’s living in the past and wants and expects everyone else to live in the past with him. Ghastly man!
Super delegates, one from Puerto Rico for Clinton, one from California for Obama, there is a rumour on the blogs of a Congresswoman from California who had been thought to be a Clinton coming out later today or tomorrow for Obama - have to wait and see, but there does seem much more movement with declarations by supers which can only be helpful to the process.
Only one day till the greatest Con vctory since the heroes of 1992!
78. LOL! Great minds think alike.
These attacks will actually HELP the Conservatives cause. If Cameron wants to show the British people that his party has changed, what better way to do it than be attacked by right wing nutters like Heffer and Peter Hitchens, etc…
Jeremiah Wright’s angry at his “betrayal”
http://www.nypost.com/seven/04302008/news/nationalnews/rev_enge_is_sweet_for_betrayed_pastor_108791.htm?page=1
80 I read Heffer’s piece and always take the view that he’s a sad failure who knows his ambitions have come to nought.
considering BoJo didn’t grass him up over the Liverpool editorial I think it showed typical ungracious sourness from heffer, one of Gordon Brown’s cheerleaders last October.That alone tells you the man has the political insight of an old and incontinent staffordshire terrier and the bite of a hibernating dormouse.
80. Frankly, and I’m not alone, most of my associates in the party think Heffer is a professional C***
81 dave(s). See my 36.
86 HEHEHE and we havent even got to results night yet!
*******
WHAT TIME ARE THE PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS OF THE LAST YOUGOV MAYORAL POLL OUT TONIGHT??
*******
83. Blair worked this tactic to a treat. He picked fights with union leaders, deliberately provoked the left and when there was the inevitable furore he reinforced his message of a need to change. And he always won. Blair used the reform of Clause 4 to excellent effect, I’m not sure there has been a landmark moment for the Tories. Lots of little things - changing selections, rebranding, softer language etc - not nothing fundamental. Perhaps it’s not needed to win the election. Perhaps it is.
for ChrisD - your request on the last thread - the link to the front pages on election day last year - a copy of the Sun front page is on this page
http://www.scotsindependent.org/2007/070511/index_p.htm
89) We need to ask don. don if you are reading this - please post!
86. Heffer isn’t that useful!
79 PolCap - Interesting, is such a trend in the movement of odds usual in your experience, particularly in political betting, or do particular factors need to be in place for this to occur?
If so, this would seem to offer a profitable opportunity for both this and other contests.
83. Attacks on competence hardly ever do anyone any good. If Heffer was attacking Boris’ Thatcherism, it might help in the way you suggest…
89. Worship don.
82 1992 was the best GE ever - I got 7-1 on the tories winning; it was never in doubt because NO ONE sane was going to vote for Kinnock if he looked like winning.
94 - It’s one of the things Mike mentions in his book - as inexperianced mug punters pile on in the day before an election - the uneducated money almost invariably goes on the favourite.
I suspect guys like Heffer are panicking now, because Project Cameron is well on course to take control of the country. In the face of so much bitching and back biting from these right wing nutcases Cameron is actually proving an over-whelming success.
After the stick he took last time, I doubt we will be hearing any poll details from Don this evening. I would be even more doubtful of his source spilling any beans.
90. Actually the closest landmark moment I can think of was around grammar schools, except that ended badly for Cameron and neutered David Willets’ career. One occasion where Cameron’s background really appeared a bit of a handicap - ironically in the Conservative Party. Had he been a grammar school boy like Howard then he’d have been able to push further and faster, but coming from Eton was always going to make it trickier.
GIN
if you think this is bad then wait until Cameron actually wins (which I am sure he will). Many on the right of the party realise that they must get rid of Brown and get the Conservatives in to stabnd any cahnce of getting what they want on issues such as tax and the EU. They are willing to suppport Cameron in the hope that he will deliver.
If once in power he does not then they have absolutely nothing to lose from ripping the party apart.
97 Lennon - I guess that’s right, must remember to dust off Mike’s tome and re-read it. Maybe I’ll win a shiny new copy tomorrow.
94) There are lots of examples. People are desperate to “back the winner” even if they are getting very poor value. The price of the “consensus accepted winner” usually dumps to silly levels on the last day/days. From my head I would point out;
Nick Clegg - last Dem Leadership - almost lost (or lost) traded very short vs Huhne - correct price should have been evens?
SPOTY - Darren Clarke. Serious gamblers took him to 1.1 with big money or so in a fit of group think - Zara Phillips won by a long way.
Hillary Clinton - New Hampshire - an outsider but trading at over 100? Dreadful value for the layers (she wins)
etc etc..
103 “Back the Winner” - perhaps it should be called the Murdoch principle.
re 102. Who said anything about it being a new copy???
Mori have just put out an interesting slide presentation on the impact of turnout. Their main view based on their final poll is that Boris wins below 40% - Ken above.
It’s really worth looking at.
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/content/home-features/understanding-turnout-in-the-london-mayoral-electi.ashx
105 Completely sold out have we Mike and having to scour eBay for a battered old copy?
Mike - just emailed you to ask if you know anyone offering odds on Crewe & Nantwich yet? Really want to come in before local results …
Channel 4 News reporting Labour whips were taken by surprise by the number of rebels[38] on a bill tonight in thew HoC.
CH 4 saying on the eve of the locals, when you would expect discipline to be tight, it shows how Gordon how much difficulty Gordon is in and confirms the fear that post-10p, the troops are getting rebellious.
106
Fair point but i think the poll was flawed from the start - any union based survey would rarely give a conservative lead for anything thus the figs are inaccurate. However the lesson being obvious, the lower the turnout, the better for Boris.
Ginger Spice has always been a Tory [she is another Maggie Thatcher fan]. I think Sharon Osborne a Tory aswell. And Tim Rice, of course. Also, best selling and award winning author, Sean Thomas.
96 LOL I put £100 on at 7/2 - won £350!!! And if i had waited until the following day I would have got 7/1 like you!
In hindsight it was obvious that Labour could not win - back then I was Labour but I could feel it slipping away over the last day or so. But Labour were never really ahead…
I knew Labour had lost when on election night just after 10pm and after the exit poll projecting a hung parliament, someone from Labour had a glum face saying something like ‘this (Tory) government has lost the authority to govern’ - not something you say if you expect that government to lose its majority!
I expect turnout of 45-47%.
106. Just finished that article. Yep it’s interesting but they still have Boris Johnson way way lower than YouGov even at low turnout.
Anyone get the impression that MORI are nervous of being made to look completely useless?!
I though Ginger Spice was the one that did labour PPB’s and was then uncovered as not even being registered to vote for “security” reasons?
112. “In hindsight it was obvious that Labour could not win - back then I was Labour..”
What?!!!!
I see Boris is continuing to move in…
Now at 1.38.
111 Sorry Sally, but you’ll probably remember that Sean has stated specifically at least twice in recent days that he is not a Tory.
I know, I know, if it quacks like a duck and waddles like a duck …
112. Stunned silence echoes around PB land……………..
114
I think we have to ease up a little on MORI, they’ve polled a union, why wouldn’t a union based poll prodce anything other than a Labour lead?
118. My mistake!
101
But what the right does not realise is that Heffer and other idiots make the old right look out of touch with modern Briatin and effectively still uneletable on their own.
When Cameron is in power, they will have no sway: waht can Heffer do to Cameron when in power? What favours can he call in?
None.
Remember Howard Flight’s outburst on tax before the last election? Helped the Conservatives lose.
118. I think he is Peter. I’ve heard him say that he is before.
He might not be a Cameroon fan but, then, I’m not sure I am either…
112. SOLSOLSOLSOLSOLSOLSOLSOLSOLSOLSOLSOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
SHOCKED-OUT-LOUD!! SHOCKED-OUT-LOUD!! SHOCKED-OUT-LOUD!! SHOCKED-OUT-LOUD!! SHOCKED-OUT-LOUD!! SHOCKED-OUT-LOUD!! SHOCKED-OUT-LOUD!! SHOCKED-OUT-LOUD!! SHOCKED-OUT-LOUD!! SHOCKED-OUT-LOUD!! SHOCKED-OUT-LOUD!! SHOCKED-OUT-LOUD!! SHOCKED-OUT-LOUD!! SHOCKED-OUT-LOUD!! SHOCKED-OUT-LOUD!!
120. Yes I was a tad harsh of me perhaps, but I’m not keen that they look to be covering their backs at this point as if they know they could be looking pretty bad on Friday.
At the end of the day there is an enormous 14% difference between them and YouGov and you cannot go around publishing polls in the national press if you don’t learn from your mistakes. It’ll be interesting to see who has got this so badly wrong!
106 My reading is turnout has to be 45% before you could really go long on Ken. 40% certainly gives him a chance but believe it turnout will be heavy in Outer London and this wil bump the figure up towards that 40% significantly. I just take a deep breath before saying 40% automatically means Ken
116/119 I have mentioned on here i was labour once! (But certainly before you came here Sally)
I switched to Con after the disgusting 1% on NI in 2002 which has been TOTALLY WASTED by labour! (and which cost me quite a bit - i wouldnt mind if the money had been spent well)
Labour is a complete waste of time for ordinary decent people who want to get on
VOTE CON!!! PARTY OF FREEDOM!!!!!
126. Only in 2002?!
Ave it - you don’t sound “hardcore”…
How “hardcore” are we talking here?? Ideology involved, or purely pragmatism?!?!
123 LOL are you here tomorrow night? HEHE
Can’t believe anyone’s vote would be influenced by a load of luvvies. Still very disappointed Jim Davidson hasn’t come out for Boris, but then as he now lives in Dubai not much point.
114:
Mori have a MAJOR problem: their numbers are based on people who SAY they are registered to vote.
But we KNOW at least 16% of those who say they are - are not! (see yesterday’s threads).
So after that.. all the rest of their analysis and 4% MOE - is statistical Rubbish.. imo.
(That’s their get out of jail card…)
What time will the results start to come in for Mayor/assembly/local councils? I’m working until 10ish so hope I won’t miss too much.
113 - I still expect turnout to be higher in Outer London. I am told that postal vote turnout in one outer London borough is the same as the 2006 locals - overall turnout was 42%. But of course Inner London boroughs were about 30%. Does this mean that Labour voters are not bothering to vote.
128 - London count is on Friday, so have to wait another day to either crow yer triumph . . . or cry into yer beer . . .
124
Yeah i totally agree - although we may not agree with the figs jo-public and the media will most certainly be viewing this as the judgement on pollsters.
200436.95%
200436.95%
I don’t think its fair to imply pollsters are fiddling the results just because they are commissioned by a union.
There is stuff at the margins which does them no credit. Asking questions in an odd format like repeating Ken’s name 3 times! Or when they gear their questions into a cul-de-sac such as multiple choice questions with two positive one negative option or vis-versa.
There may be some truth in organisations choosing a pollster whose methodology feeds into their own narrative.
111 glad to hear I am not alone.
Go Boris!”!!!!!!!!
126. It was 2% really, Ave It, your employer had to pay another 1% NI too.
139 I know but i’m not paying that HEHE!
126. I remember that moment well. Was a ‘woman in pink’ who shouted angrily about it on Question Time. Ahhh the good old days.
111 - Ginger Geri came out for Labour in 2001, I think. But was not registered to vote.
New Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Presdential and Primary Polls :
McCain 44% .. Clinton 45%
McCain 46% .. Obama 43%
Clinton 44% .. Obama 41%
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,353459,00.html
135/136.
…is the margin Boris will beat Ken by.
141 and the way it was ‘announced’ as well - it wasnt explicitly announced in the budget. I was out that night in the pub, and spent much of the time workng out what was happening with NI. It took me about 4 pints to work it out!
Everything Gordon Brown has done has worked against ‘ordinary decent people who want to get on’
Labour are t0ssers!
Turn out in last mayoral, 2004 was 36.95%. It was a lovely day. Sunny and warm from dawn to nightfall.
It was also the day of the Euro elections and the local council elections. So, all in all, I think there was more reason to go out and vote.
Today in London the whether has been foul. And more of the same is predicted for tomorrow. My prediction is that turnout will be about what it was last time ie under 40%.
[60] - This looks to me like an example of how climate science works, not something that is wrong with it.
The models do have the El-Nino/La-Nina cycle (some better than others) and the cycle in strength of the MOC was first predicated on the results of long computer simulations (this oscillation is called the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation or AMO), and there aren’t yet enough observations to confirm its existence.
One thing the models in the latest IPCC report didn’t do, was to try and predict the effect of this variability on the decade or two ahead. They weren’t designed to. They were designed to predict the effect towards the end of the century. Over the course of a century, these natural cycles go round more than once, so their overall impact is nil.
Of course, the new models are very interesting, but they provide additional information to what was known before, they don’t contradict results previously found.
Drogba = Boris
145. What was Ave it 01 like?
Labour GAIN Huntingdon!!
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Having just looked at the link to Mori, posted by Mike, Mori seem to be saying, ‘If turn out is around 40% or less we have no idea…’
137
Don’t think anyone is implying that.
Trade unions tend to lean towards Labour, coincidentally many of them make donations to the party and its candidates. So when a pollster asks the million dollar question, it is not a surprise to see a Labour lead.
O/T. The Blues are in the lead. Reina made a terrific save from a shot from a possibly-offside Kalou but got beaten on his near-post by Drogba on the rebound.
142 Is Geri’s middle name Murdoch by any chance?
152 Blues beat the Reds… Gordon still is a Jonah…
131. Channel 4 news said the locals will be out about Friday lunchtime and the mayoral result will be out about the time their show goes out.
re 146 - but remember the clean up of the electoral register since 2004.
[76] - It’s probably in the interests of some factions - ie those opposed to Brown - to exaggerate the impact of these elections as much as possible, all the interest of increasing their factional power.
The depressing thing about Brown is that I know if they ever knifed him they’d end up with someone more Blairite and they’d keep on making the same mistakes they’ve been making. They seem to think it is his presentation style that is a problem, not that he is trying to sell people the same old sh*te they’d decided they didn’t want from Blair anymore.
149 HAHA I was pleased when LAB won Anglesey (we dont call it Ynys Mon here) off PC LOL!
2001 election night - exciting as having a c**p (yawn central)
Ginger Spice is a Tory again now. I read it in Closer or was it Heat. Can’t remember [….at the dentist!]. She was more of a Blairite than fully fledged Labourite. She likes strong leadership ergo…Gordon ..etc…
[I am not lacking in awareness that I am displaying an alarmingly high level of in knowledge on this subject].
158. Goddamn it!
I was at a count in a “key” marginal (won’t say where) where us True-Blues failed to get anywhere whatsoever!!
Hours and hours without a SINGLE Tory declaration. Thought we’d lose Chipping Barnet at one point.
We just got pissed afterwards instead…
146 - it’s mostly about the closeness of the race, and the media interest in it. Both of these are far more significant this time and will push turnout up (though the weather may counteract it to some extent). My best guess for turnout would be around 42%, so to my mind that makes 7/4 on 43%+ good value.
155 Unless it’s very close, i.e. <2%, I reckon we’ll know the London result within a few seconds after 10.00pm tomorrow.
Pre-election polls are one thing, exit polls involving much larger samples are quite another.
151. Zak I’m not entirely getting this inference that a sponsor influences the outcome of a poll. BPC pollsters are supposed to be transparent in their methodology and publish data in detail. The fact that MORI also publish their findings in a national newspaper means they are open to the same degree of scrutiny as any other such pollster.
106,
The summary of that MORI presentation is:
Turnout > 73%, they’re pretty certain that Ken will win.
Turnout < 15%, they;re pretty certain that Boris will win.
Turnout 15%-73%, either could win, with Boris the advantage at the bottom end( up to turnout ~41%, Ken with the advantage at the upper end of turnout.
So, if turnout is, say 36-39%, any outcome from Boris winning 55-45 to Ken winning 53-47.
I’d say that the options are pretty fairly covered.
Oh, and their published figures are only valid if turnout is 61% or so, where they’d expect anything from Ken winning 56-44 to Boris winning 52-48.
158 - Don’t often agree with you, AVE, but you are right on about what a bore 2001 GE was. Except for the occassional photo of ffion Hague. What I wouldn’t give to have her tutor ME in Welsh!
165 - Elections are never boring.
Newcastle-under-Lyme BC councillor Mrs Elizabeth Shenton announced as Liberal Democrat candidate for Crewe & Nanwich byelection.
http://www.newcastle-staffs.gov.uk/councillor.asp?id=SX9F7B-A7801B30
159 - Often disagree with you Sally.
But am now going to nominate you for Ms Congeniality of PB. Because you are just such a nice person, as well as an extremely astute pundit.
As a Labour voter,last time I felt twitchy between the moment Stephen Twigg lost Enfield Southgate and Gisela Stewart’s holding Birmingham Edgbaston about an hour later-I was extropolating the Southgate swing,thinking Labours majority might go as low as 10-20(or even nought),until Edgbaston stayed in the red column (when I heaved a HUGE sigh of relief)
Zak [120 & 151]: While I of course appreciate the idea of you all ‘easing up’ on us, I do need to respond to your comment here with a clarification. Firstly, our poll for the trade union UNISON was not a poll of union members (as your post implies), but rather was a poll of Londoners age 18+. Secondly, the poll did not show a lead for Livingstone; the difference (52-48) is well within the margin of error, yielding a statistical dead heat.
I appreciate your comment about pollsters and their clients. It is an issue I hope to clarify once and for all! As John Curtice so ably pointed out on the Simon Mayo show yesterday, when Mike was also a guest, pollsters do not adjust their findings to the whim of their clients. It is simply not done. Not only would it be ethically wrong, but it would also undermine our credibility with our other clients, who - frankly - pay the bills.
Madasafish [130]: Indeed, it is the difficult position of pollsters to try to collect data from the public in the most accurate manner we can. We do design our questionnaires and questions in a way we believe elicits the most truthful responses, but human error will always creep in — perhaps someone thinks that they voted last election but they did not; perhaps they think they are registered when actually they forgot to. I would add that the issue of registration is not actually as big a problem as it sounds, because the people who do not know they are not registered (and so give us a false positive on registration) will on the whole tend to be the ones who are not interested enough to find out and so are less likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’, which (as you’ll know) is the other main filter we use in reporting our polls.
However, you are incorrect in implying that it is only Ipsos MORI who has to face this challenge — of course it is a challenge for all pollsters.
Cheers,
Julia Clark
Head of Political Research
Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute
160 - builds character! Have lost enough elections (as a hack) to now have an overabundance . . .
169 One more lapse to confess,Sunday night
168 SSI. Absolutely …. and Sally has an interesting line in pink furry handcuffs too …
http://www.fancydressdirect.co.uk/productimages/116354876920.jpg
170 Julia - great to have you on here. Thank you for your time.
Can you give an assurance that if you are more wrong than YouGov in this battle of the pollsters tomorrow (!) you will introduce weighting by past voting pattern?
(Always accepting the point about false memory, which is not really an argument for not doing it!)
As i recall the first result declared last year was Croydon and Sutton, this is an ultra safe Conservative seat but watch out for a swing from both the Lib/Dems in Sutton and Labour supporters in Croydon.
This could be an early clue as to how the mayoral vote is going for Boris, i think it was around 3pm on the Fridsy and was followed by one of the North London seats, Enfield and Barnet? perhaps, i can’t remember.
The Mayoral result was declared after all the constituentcy results were in. I don’t know what happend in the London Wide vote but we knew who was mayor by mid evening.
*Not last year, four years ago*
172 I told you to screw up that pack of Marlboro!
170 My ARSE stands cheeks by jowl with Julia on this.
160 you (we now) never looked like gaining anything all night - on course for the huge success of equalling 1997’s 165 seats then suddenly last seat in Isle of Wight CON GAIN! 166 in total.
159 some thought she was a little slim then but I thought Geri looked incredible in 2001 - what a body! Mind you I like her larger as well LOL SUPER WATFORD (that’s where she’s from)
175 I think Con could win all the constituency seats tomorrow…..
Despite the emerging feeling that Boris will win, are we going to have a MAJOR moment?
Surely some intelligent Conservatives (and surely there are some?) will be worrying about a 1992 scenario?