Will it be all change at Crewe on May 22nd?
April 30th, 2008
Can Labour contain the damage with an ultra-short campaign?
To all those outside London who have been saying that we have been over-doing the Boris-Ken contest can I say three words - Crewe and Nantwich. For after the London result on Friday the main UK domestic story will be the by election in the Cheshire seat.
This site follows the key action and nothing else will happen in the coming months that will provide such a good test of opinion ahead of the general election.
For given their high ratings in the polls and their likely successes tomorrow the scene should be set for something that we have not seen in UK politics since June 1982 - a Conservative gain in a Westminster by election.
The numbers look good for Cameron’s party - a solid second place last time some way ahead of the Lib Dems as well as a strongish base of councillors. Of course the Tories will desperately be trying to play down expectations but this really is one that they have to win - especially if it follows victory in the London Mayoral race.
In recent times by elections have tended to be dominated by local issues which has been the hallmark of the Lib Dem approach. If the Tories want to win they have to make it a referendum on Labour and Gordon Brown. You can see a campaign theme running along the lines of “Had Enough?”
The Lib Dems and Labour will be trying hard to pick holes in every aspect of the Tory approach to find something that gives them traction. Don’t write off Chris Rennard and the Lib Dem campaign team - they have the track record.
My guess is that the clash will generate much more media coverage than we have seen in by elections of late and that there will be a lot of betting.
Mike Smithson
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I’m hesitating in between voting for UKIP, Christian Alliance and the Conservatives on Thursday. UKIP I think represent my views the best of any party and they’re recommended whenever I take one of those “who should you vote for” quizzes. The Christian Alliance because I agree with the message and think their candidate (Alan Craig) is a good man for an independent who deserves support for what he’s been doing as a councillor, but I don’t especially like voting for a purely faith-based organization. The Conservatives would only be to guarantee to kick Ken out (I initially ruled it out, the news about Kate Hoey as an advisor has made voting BJ more palatable).
What do people here think is the likelihood of various small parties to make a breakthrough? My preferred 1st preference choice is probably Alan Craig because I don’t like the UKIP guy very much. But if UKIP gets less votes than CC then my second vote will be wasted and I have no idea which party is more likely to get close enough to the 5-6% threshold to get an assembly member.
Comment by a voter Ben Leaper reported in the Telegraph:
“I have just filled in my postal vote for the London mayoral election. It was so confusing that I fear we’re heading for a calamity on May 1, with the outcome determined by whose supporters spoil fewer ballot papers. Everyone gets three ballot papers to fill in - mayor (first and second preferences), assembly constituency and assembly London-wide. Despite a 13-point set of instructions, I found two particular problems. One: there’s a confirmation slip that voters must sign and date. Such slips usually require today’s date, but anyone who writes it in will be disqualified - it needs to be filled in with your date of birth. Two: a fold-over and stick-down piece of paper seemed to have been perforated in the wrong place on my form (bear with me!), so that it came apart when I picked it up. This meant that the inner envelope containing the ballot papers was effectively unsealed. I puzzled over this, and eventually sealed it with sticky tape. Have I disqualified myself? Or would I have been disqualified if my vote arrived unsealed?”
What is the electoral commission doing? Look out for the headlines comparing UK and Zimbabwe.
The last time the Tories gained a Westminster by election was June 1982. Ok, yes, but that was from the old SDP (now the Lib Dems).
But when did the Tories last gain a seat from Labour?
Hasn’t the Labour by-election whizz refused to do this one?
1. I suggest you give your first preference to either UKIP or Christian Alliance, and your second to Boris Johnson. That way you both get to make your point, and ensure that your second vote gets counted.
I agree with Rod Crosby on this. There are no excuses for the Conservatives if they don’t take this.
It’s high risk for Labour though. If they get hammered in the locals (and the Conservatives will be canvassing Crewe & Nantwich because of the election to the new shadow authority) then this gives a terrific boost to the Conservative by-election campaign.
Socrates, if so that would be immensely cowardly of him!
Seems a very tough ask, but we have had a good local candidate in place for some time. As ever it’ll be LibDens splitting the Lab vote that’ll be the joker.
1 - I’d agree with Sean at 5; use your first preference to say who you really want out of the candidates (incidentally although I haven’t had time to follow closely, I’ve been impressed with Alan Craig - seems like a decent bloke and compared to some Cornerstonesque Christian headbangers, he seems to talk a lot of sense in terms of how he’d like to see more Christian values in politics.) Then your second will only count if you go for Boris/Ken, as there seems to be no suggestion that the final two will be any others.
Interestingly, it seems like there will be many voters giving Paddick second preference. Just to prime the number-crunchers on here, I wonder what the result would be if all voters who gave Paddick 2nd preference had swapped their preferences round?
As for Crewe, the Labour candidate is key. They’re in real trouble if they go for an establishment figure as they’ll be identified with the Government nationally - and the majority was less than 1100 in the 1980s. Pick a local candidate with a track record of being independent, to “follow in Gwyneth’s footsteps” and I’d imagine the majority will see them through, just.
sean, interested in your analysis - patrick henessy at the Telegraph thinks that we can’t take it b/c LDs will split the opposition vote. You disagree?
8 I meant splitting the anti-Lab vote. Hate typing on a phone
tpfkar said: “As for Crewe, the Labour candidate is key. They’re in real trouble…..” nuf said
3 5th May 1982 - MERTON, MITCHAM and MORDEN
Con gain from Labour (who had sought re-election as SDP).
9. That shouldn’t be a problem per se, I think. Suppose the Labour vote drops 12% (not implausible) and that splits between Conservative and Lib Dem (not implausible where the Conservatives are a long way ahead of the Lib Dems) then the Conservatives take the seat.
Monday night, Rome elected Alemanno, a former neo-fascist youth leader, — a few weeks after Silvio Berlusconi won the General Election, and secured a majoriy with an alliance with Umberto Bossi, the Northern League leader, a far-right party.
According to the Guardian:
On Monday night, the area around Rome’s city hall rang to chants of “Duce! Duce!”, the term adopted by Italy’s dictator, Benito Mussolini, equivalent to the German “Führer”. Supporters of the new mayor gave the fascist Roman straight-arm salutes.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/apr/30/italy
2 - That’s a thought. Thinking back, I can’t be at all sure that i filled the date in correctly.
“Interestingly, it seems like there will be many voters giving Paddick second preference. Just to prime the number-crunchers on here, I wonder what the result would be if all voters who gave Paddick 2nd preference had swapped their preferences round?”
Well it’s a bit irrelevant since most of these will be people who had him as (genuine) second preference to Boris/Ken. Wouldn’t win though.
Crewe and Natwich will, I suspect, be determined by the economy, or rather the pound in people’s pockets.
Food prices have risen sharply (last week in Sainsbury’s, I overheard two couples remarking on how much more they were paying compared with the previous week, and a third bloke was anxiously adding up his bill). And then there is the 10p tax rate hitting people’s pay slips for the first time.
That is the story and (imo) the Tories will be daft to try and introduce an alternative narrative.
Yes, but what would the Tories do either to reduce prices or about the 10% tax.
17 - Even I, who am one of the least price sensitive people in the world, have noticed the food prices going through the roof in supermarkets.
Of course it goes without saying that i wasn’t quite so price sensitive about paying 6.95 for a round of two drinks last week!
18 — what the Tories would do about it really is not that important (especially since they will not form the government on Friday anyway). That is the luxury of opposition.
17
It might be a good time to buy grains on the market.
Rice Rationing Spreads as Far as Israel
http://www2.nysun.com/article/75387
NEW ZEALAND ELECTION COMING SOON
And the Right looks like a good bet. Another poll give the a big advance:
New Zealand National Party Extends Lead in Poll, Herald Says
By Tracy Withers
April 30 (Bloomberg) — New Zealand’s main opposition National Party extended its lead over the governing Labour Party, according to a poll published in the New Zealand Herald.
National support rose to 52.1 percent from 49.9 percent a month ago, the newspaper reported. Labour support fell to 37.2 percent from 39.3 percent.
NEW ZEALAND ELECTION COMING SOON
And the Right looks like a good bet. Another poll give the a big advance:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aYlZjRMbsIXE&refer=australia
Once again I totally agree with Mike. Crewe and Nantwich is going to be incredibly important. Tomorrow the Tories have 3 big goals:
1. Boris scalps Ken
2. To get higher than 38% which they did in the 2004 locals and which Hague achieved when they lost in 2001
3. To see Labour fall below 26% which they did in 2004 a year before winning a historic third term.
Of these, 1 is the biggest for the media narrative. The other two if not achieved will probably be part of the counter-spin.
However, as Mike rightly points out to show they are destined for power from this they MUST start gaining by-elections. In the run up to Margaret Thatcher’s win on May 03rd 1979 they had a string of by-election gains. Apart from the decidedly quirky Mitcham & Merton in 1982 (odd circumstances and the Falklands War) they haven’t done so since. To show they are the next Government in waiting, and not merely a good Opposition, they must win Crewe and Nantwich.
Never bet against the Clintons?
—-
“Everybody is talking today about how much the Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s latest unrepentant militant remarks hurt his most prominent parishoner, Sen. Barack Obama, and his chances to win the Democratic presidential nomination and the general election. So much so that the Obama camp realized the latent danger overnight and the candidate was forced to speak out publicly a second time today, as The Ticket noted here earlier today.
There was little doubt left in today’s remarks by Obama, who recently said he could no more disown Wright than he could the black community. He pretty much disowned Wright today. Obama described himself as “outraged” and “saddened” by “the spectacle of what we saw yesterday.”
But now, it turns out, we should have been paying a little less attention to Wright’s speech and the histrionics of his ensuing news conference and taken a peek at….
who was sitting next to him at the head table for the National Press Club event.
It was the Rev. Dr. Barbara Reynolds, a former editorial board member of USA Today who teaches at the Howard University School of Divinity. An ordained minister, as New York Daily News writer Errol Louis points out in today’s column, she was introduced at the press club event as the person “who organized” it.
But guess what? She’s also an ardent longtime booster of Obama’s sole remaining competitor for the Democratic nomination, none other than Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York. It won’t take very much at all for Obama supporters to see in Wright’s carefully arranged Washington event that was so damaging to Obama the strategic, nefarious manipulation of the Clintons.”
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/04/wrightsetup.html
—–
Clinton is a dangerous politician if this story is true…
13 thanks Sean. You are always insightful.
23. On some of the latest polls, the Tories would be winning C&N at a general election, never mind a by-election. But then, on the polls at the time, Labour would have won the Eastleigh by-election by 6000 votes, as their election literature never tired of saying.
3 - As 12 says, the Mitcham and Morden was certainly a Tory gain from Labour. It had never been won by the SDP. However, if you are looking for more “normal” gains, look to 1974-1979:
Ilford North 1978
Ashfield 1977
Birmingham Stetchford 1977
Workington 1976
Walsall North 1976
Woolwich West 1975
This is important to note. Remember, this was the last Parliament where the Tories were the opposition and not in internal chaos as they were 1997-2005. Let’s be clear - the Conservatives do “do” by-elections and really have to win this well if they want to say they are on their way. Seats like Walsall and Ashfield registered swings of over 20% and several of these were far, far more unlikely gains than Crewe (which is the sort of seat the Tories could plausibly win in a good year outside a General Election).
11 - Icarus, Guido suggests that Gwyneth Dunwoody’s daughter may go for the nomination. That’s exactly the kind of candidate I had in mind, I’d expect Labour to walk it if they pick her.
In Bromley in 2005, Carol Forth would surely have safely been elected, however the Tories chose a candidate in Bob O’Neill who appeared in detail in every LD leaflet and had so many flaws that one of the Tories’ safest seats nearly went down.
zzzzz…5 hours sleep and have to talk lucidly on prison pay on Radio 4 in 15 minutes…
12. Yes, and it was complicated by the close three-way race between the Conservative, Labour and SDP candidates. The Tory vote actually fell slightly, but the SDP candidate fell just short anyway. So it’s somewhat suspect as a valid measure of a Tory gain.
Still, the Tories did win many “valid” by-elections in the 1970s. They should at least come very close in this one.
errors in 28: “in 2006, Caroll”
Apologies
C&N is going to be enormous, all 3 parties are going to throw the kitchen sink at this. Labour need to retain this to have a hope of changing the narrative, the Lib Dems need to do spectacularly well here to show that they are not stalling under Clegg. The Conservatives need to win to validate their narrative. To my mind the pressure is on all but the Conservatives here in most scenarios. If Labour lose this seat to the Conservatives it is a disaster for Labour and a huge fillip for the Conservatives, no problem. If the Conservatives come achingly close then it is containable from the Conservative spin side as they can point out that Labour have had to spend a lot to just scrape home. If Labour wins comfortably that could be a problem for the Conservatives as it might lead to uncomfortable questions, if the Lib Dems were to win this then it would be an unparalleled disaster for the Conservatives and Labour.
I think we can discount the Lib Dems winning as they have nothing to squeeze and the Conservatives will fight to avoid the squeeze, and they cannot claim with a straight face that only they can win C&N. I think the result will go down to the wire, and will probably be won by a very tiny amount either way. I think we could have recounts on this. This is the best prospect for a Conservative gain at a by-election in donkeys years but until I see it I can’t quite bring myself to hope.
It is interesting that they are pressing on quite so quickly with Crewe given that the 10p tax rate issue is unlikely to be settled in the interim.
Not hard to work out that Crewe will be disproportionately impacted by the doubling of the lower tax band. Just look at the employment breakdown:
https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/pca/2030043562/report.aspx
2. This isn’t just a problem in London. In Gloucester the postal vote instructions were very misleading
(a) The instructions told voters “After you have marked your ballot paper insert as indicated by the arrows then seal the envelope section and post it back as soon as possible.” There were no arrows on the envelopes or the ballot paper.
(b) There were two envelopes but the instructions implied only one
(c) The instructions did not say in which envelope the ballot paper is to be placed.
(d) The instructions did not say the statement must be signed and returned with the ballot paper
(e) The instructions did not say which envelope the statement is to be placed in (my wife got this wrong - and she is a lawyer)
(f) The instructions did not say that the smaller envelope should be placed in the larger one and that one posted back - although this one you should be able to guess
I’ve been told that in one ward 117 voters had got the procedure wrong in some way when the large envelopes were first opened!
Nothing to squeeze, James (32)? But Labour is in free fall - there is everything for the Lib Dems to squeeze, especially as former Labour voters are unlikely to really want to vote Tory.
And somebody above was already gloating that the Tories had a good start to their campaign, since they were fighting local elections in C&N. Presumably that would also be true of the other two major parties, wouldn’t it?
So I would tend to see this as a three-horse race. But we shall see things more clearly once the local elections are declared.
The writ issued and her funeral hasn’t even taken place, why the haste?
29 The Tories do NOT need to show they can win seats they don’t need to form a Government with a comfortable working majority. And as it would perhaps hasten the demise of Gordon - far more valuable to them come May 2010 than having the Hon. Member for Crewe sat on their benches - a very close second might still be their best result.
That said, I speak as someone who campaigned very actively for the massive upset of the Tories’ Ashfield win in 1977. And certain parallels might apply - that win was down to working class Labour voters who sat on their hands on polling day. [It was a well hard place for us Tories to canvass - massive council estates (pre-right to buy, so all local authority) where your greatest risk was knocking on a door and waking up a miner on night-shift! Proper Labour-monkey voting areas. But we took Maggie to queue up to buy her fish and chips in Hucknall - and the press loved it. It does seem like it was in a VERY different age though. Perhaps Cameron should go and play a couple of games of bingo?!? Just as long as he doesn’t win THAT top prize….]
Phillipe at 24. This is what was being rumoured yesterday, see my postings where a US blog or two were saying Wright may endorse Clinton!
Re Crewe and Nantwich: I live within close striking distance of the seat and will try to give as unbiased personal assessment or two, if others would be interested.
18 - Icarus - “Yes, but what would the Tories do either to reduce prices or about the 10% tax.”
Wow. Forensic politics at this hour in the morning.
38 yes please, Dave s
I have no ideas if Tamsin Dunwoody will stand, though the haste in calling the election might suggest that the Labour Party has a candidate in mind (or is that hoping for too much?). However Tamsin Dunwoody, as I pointed out yesterday, lives on a smallholding in Haverfordwest with 5 children.
Would she really give this up for Crewe and Nantwich? Perhaps the Labour election supremo (who he/she these days?)has told her “Don’t worry, you wont need to move, you wont win!”
I am surprised this has been called so soon - with no Labour candidate selected. I’d have thought they’d wait a bit hoping for better days.
“An unbiased personal assessment” - Another first for PoliticalBetting.com!!!
Seriously that would be helpful dave s but could we know where you are coming from. Which party did you vote for last time, do you eat yogurt, are you now or have you ever been a Jacobite. That sort of thing!
Might it be Chris Leslie, who is northern and did n’t get the nomination he was seeking in Hull?
28,41 Are Labour seats to be passed from generation to generation like hereditary peerages?
How many Labour MPs are the sons/daughters of MPs? How many Tory MPs?
It would be interesting to know the answer to this.
38
Thanks Dave,
I’ll go read your post now.
And I’m very interested by your assessment.
45 Or perhaps Crewe represents an opening for the Kinnock offspring?
I wonder why Stuart Dickson hasn’t followed his usual practice of interrupting the thread after the second post…
http://tinyurl.com/67utgo
A drawn-out campaign would give the Conservatives a chance to really hammer home their national poll advantage, so it makes sense for Labour to cut them short. I would still expect the Conservatives to punch a hole in Labour’s lead, though.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
14- Philippe- this is a disaster. My wife is utterly frantic about the situation in Italy.
We have a facist in Rome,
Berlusconi celebrating the return of the falange (facist black shirts)
Bossi (virtually the deputy PM) threatening the left opposition with the army
Facism has returned to Italy under a right wing populist. This is terrible
ON INTRADE
Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2008,
Last Trade : 25.5
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=177134
45 - For starters there are Labour MPs, Mark Fisher (son of Tory Sir Nigel Fisher) Hilary Benn, and Iain McCartney and on the Conservative side, there’s Andrew Mitchell, Dominic Grieve Nick Hurd and Douglas Hogg. Must be loads more..
Sean Fear; From my circle of friends in London, I don’t think either of the candidates will break the 40% mark on first preferences because people do understand the arguement you put forward. Many are enjoying the benefit of the electoral system and supporting a smaller party whilst putting Boris/Ken second. I think the “others” may do a lot better first round than expected.
“Berlusconi celebrating the return of the falange”
Wasn’t the Falange a Spanish formation, not Italian?
51
I know. It’s crazy. Surrealistic. Retro-Futuristic. The past is the future; yet the future is now.
As you can read, I don’t know what to think about it; I’m not surprised; yet I’m stunt.
54
Like the BNP; signal from Italy…
No doubt about it, the Tories have to win Crewe and win it well.
No excuses at all, it simply must fall even if it isn’t a target seat they need to win.
Just listened to part of Brown’s interview on today, he was…predictable. Denied anything wrong with 10p tax abolition, came up with the same excuses that have so far rang hollow. I can see why he avoided having Cameron and Clegg against him though, they would have ripped him to bits. He speaks very slowly and stumbles at the best of times, imagine what would happen with them interrupting!
Cameron has a destination to get to, and the focus to get there. You might dissagree with what he says, but he sounds like he has the conviction to say it and make his points. For Brown the journey seems to be its own reward. He talks and talks without ever saying anything, and sounds unconvincing throughout.
Cuddles (58), when you say “He talks and talks without ever saying anything, and sounds unconvincing throughout”, are you talking about Brown or about Cameron?
Just for clarification…
12
I think the Falklands could have influenced that one.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitcham_and_Morden_by-election,_1982
50
Your worried! they’re sh***ing themselves in Abyssinia (Ethiopia)
59. Brown, which would be why the previous sentance had his name in.
Poor old Dave must be cursing his luck. Yesterday on the Today Programme he got John Humphries as an interviewer; this morning Gordon gets Des O’Connor.
Calling this by election with such undue haste is particularly callous for the Dunwoody family. Her children are being given no time to mourn before faced with the issue of standing as her replacement.
Decisions made in this emotional state are not good for them or their party.
35. “So I would tend to see this as a three-horse race. ”
Bet you (i.e. Lib Dems) don’t put that on the bar-charts, though.
63 - presumably done because Brown knows the opposition parties won’t want to be seen campaigning before the funeral, thus reducing the campaign even more?
Very distateful, and should hurt Labour even more.
51 This is as far as it will get (Hillary at 23-25 on Intrade). Hillary will not tighten more than this. Obama is now forced to disown pastor Wright. This will not hurt him significantly among black voters, and help him enough among whites to pull through with a big win in North Carolina, and a close result in Indiana. That will be enough.
Time to sell her, and as usual I follow my own advice.
Bar Chart? I think this calls for a pie chart with the Lib Dem segment at the top!
Tyson,
Is your wife Italian? I suspect this is mostly just rhetoric, but we’ll see.
61
I think its time cuddles, someone asked the obvious question: Is English your first language?
Yes, I thought that was what you must have meant, Cuddles (61). Especially since I suspect you might possibly be Tory-inclined.
However, do you not think that “He talks and talks without ever saying anything, and sounds unconvincing throughout” applies even more to Cameron?
Have just entered the PB mayoral Competition. Open ’til 7pm tonight click on competitions under Categories -top right.
[66] Thanks for that, Jan. I’m very long of McCain and Obama, but I get carried out if Hillary wins. I’ve been getting a bit sweaty……
On the list of seats of Conservatives would win based on the 9% swing the News of the Wold marginals poll gave them, Crewe and Nantwich was right at the end. In other words, in a general election the Tories wouldn’t need to win this seat to get a very comfortable majority. Added to that you don’t know how Gwynith Dunwoodys personal vote is going to play out, and I think the Conservatives would be doing well to get within a 1,000 votes of Labour in this seat.
Heffer on the, ‘Ken & Boris Show’ worth a read!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/04/30/do3001.xml
Brown told the BBC the government “didn’t cover as well as we should have” losses to some low earners and pensioners aged 60 to 64.
Spin warning.
Anyone who reached the age of 64 on or before 5th April this year is NOT affected by the abolition of the 10% tax band. The pensioners aged between 55 and 63 are the vulnerable ones.
There used to be over 700 steam engine drivers working out of Crewe. Well, I thought it was interesting.
If the Tories cant win Crewe and Nantwich, then all bets are off.
69. Yep, unfortunately I grew up during this labour government, so it is dreadful. Thats what comes from having an english teacher who’s main subject was PE.
14. What utter tripe. Anyone without even enough of a sense of history to distinguish between fascism and nazism, really oughtn’t be allowed to write in the public sphere.
50 & 56 Tyson’s missus is right to be concerned. The total disarray and surrender by the Italian left is extremely dangerous. It might interest readers to know that there is a lot of disgruntlement in the Far Right after Fini threw his lot in with Berlusconi’s People of Liberty party and many of the raised arm salutes and cries of “Duce” are aimed at Fini and his leadership. The old MSI has always had a very strong base in the outskirts of Rome (e.g round Ciampino - where you land with your low-cost flights) and mostly felt very frustrated to not have a separate identity in the general election just gone - the choice of an unelectable small Right party was not a reasonable alternative and it is the latter that Philippe should be comparing with the BNP.
78 I knew there had to be a reason!
A word of advice, as nothing gives the Tories more joy, than sending civil servants off to the, ‘Job Centre’ it might be an idea to prepare for the deluge.
The current national swing alone would give a neck and neck result.(Incidentally the vote share of 32.6% for the Cons in 2005 was virtually identical to their 2005 national GE share)
On top of the national swings we can add a “by election bash” factor usually a further 5%,particularly if the defending party had a popular MP.
That would deliver Con 45,Lab 36,Lib 16.
now of course the key question is will all the anti Labour vote go to the main challenger the 2nd placed Tories?The Lib dems could wexpect som eof this but at the same time may themselves be squeezed by the Tories.Also the last years Byelection in soythall did not produce amajor swing to them even though they wre in 2nd place.And last bbut not least there are now other aprites picking up an anti Labour vote noteably the BNP.
So I would see the Tories,picking up half of the anti Labour swing ie around 7%,but then sqeezing the lib Dems of their bit say another 3%I think the real threat to the tory victory is not the KLib demsbiur the perforrmance of the BNP and UKIP,the former having don every well in local by elections.
So final predictions Tory victory,even bigger drop in Labour share than national and by election bash would suggest,stand still for lib dems and strong performance by minor parties.
Result Con 42%,Lab 29%,Lib 16%,others 13%.
Rogerh
81. my office is massivley understaffed, so no sacking for me.
77. But this seat is right at the upper end of the list if seats the NotW marginals poll would give them. That was to get a majority of 64 and frankly the Tories could easily govern with half that. I think the main thing is to see a big swing from Labour to the Conseratives, but expecting them to win this looks a bit much. I don’t think this is really a marginal seat….
79 - unfortunately, that would eliminate all of the Guardian’s columnists. I agree that the lamentation seems a touch overdone (except for the Italians, obviously). It was the palingenetic, irredentist core that defined Nazism that makes it so much more dangerous than fascism. The latter is ultimately just a local problem.
84 - but it’s not a general election, is it, GIN? Normally swings away from the government in by-elections are bigger than they would be at a general (protest vote / protest stay-at-home). I really think the Tories need to be taking this - it’s understandable that you might want to damp down expectations but it won’t really wash!
I would make an exception if Tamsin Dunwoody was the candidate.
Of course, Thursday’s results will paint expectations in a new light in any case.
2, 15. I’ve a vague recollection that the space on the postal vote form for the date looked like “_ _ _ _ 19 _ _”, which should have signalled that it wasn’t looking for the current date.
85. Quite, or, put in a simpler way, fascism contained little link with racism. It was just an extreme expression of nationalism.
Plus Musso had next to no agenda other than personal power and, apparently, entertaining the opposite sex.
83 81. my office is massivley understaffed, so no sacking for me.
I’d like a pound for everytime someone has said that to me!!
Now the Poles are returning home, think plumbing!
86. Well, I’m just calling it as I see it. Whilst I have Conservative sympathies, I don’t belong to the party or campaign for them or anything. Whilst I accept we should see a bigger swing in a by election than a general election, theres no guarantee all of that will go to the Tories. Some of it will almost certainly go to the Lib-Dems. The Conservatives may pull this off, but personally I think Labour will just hold on.
Brown was awful on radio 4 this morning. A complete failure to communicate - just the usual mantra of economic facts and figures but no feeling of connecting to the public mood.
90 - Fair enough, it will certainly be a good three-way betting heat. If the Conservatives are aiming for a majority then I do think they ought to be taking C & N. However a Tory majority is a very big ask in itself, and has only really become realistic in the last month or two…
The Tories must win Crewe & Nantwich and I firmly expect that they will. If they don’t, they need to start their by-election team from scratch.
In an odd way, Labour are doing so badly at the moment that a by-election loss, no matter how spectacular, should be discounted. This is about the Tories and their ability to win real elections. That said, Labour’s collective nerve seems shot to pieces and although a bad result for them shouldn’t mean much, it probably would lead to a renewed round of infighting. Gordon Brown could be in for a long hot summer.
Slightly off thread, but Nicky Campbell skewered Brown this morning on 5 live. We had the Brown waking up… first thought thinking about the long term problems of the country, plus tractor production figures…………….
Than Campbell said to Brown, If I had asked the same question to Tony Blair He would have said, my first thought was a nice cup of tea…. Campbll then mentioned the human side of Brown was was the voters wanted to see.. (none of that is verbatim but its the essence of it) Its worth a listen to(on listen again at 7.50am. )Brown was dreadful, but sadly Campbell did not ask Brown whether inflation was 2%….
68- sean fear- my wife is from florence.
One of the worst things is that people in Italy do not know what is happening, difficulty when the politcians own the media. According to Italian news the cries of “Duce,” and shoulder salutes were done by left wing agitators to undermine Alemanno.
The point of history is that at the time you never know when when the tipping point is.
Berlusconi is openly hostile to the judiciary in Italy, and owns the media. What a combination!
Betfair are offering only 1.05 on the BNP winning a London Assembly seat - surely they won`t get anywhere near having enough votes for this -how many do they need ?
96 (a) Betfair are not offering that, someone using betfair is. The spread is so wide (1.02 - 1.25) that all we can infer from betfair is that the market judges the probability of the BNP winning a seat to be somewhere between 80 & 98%
(b) I think they will win a seat, partly because of the market data available but also because of Sean Fear’s analyses on this site; indeed I think they are more likely to win 2 than 0.
What a coincidence my aunt is Florence!
96 - They need 5% of the list vote - almost certain I would think.
Cheers -just astonished by it all …
[82] I agree: the BNP intervention will hand Crewe to the Tories.
If that happens, I expect that AV for Parliamentary elections will rise to the top of Brown’s agenda. Mind you, that could be a double-edged sword, particularly if he goes for the Supplementary Vote system used in the London Mayoralty.
91. Yep. He kept quoting facts and figures, quite happy to trundle along with those. Any question asked got bogged down in statistics, didn’t sound good.
Yes, if the opposition cant win a seat like Crewe when it is 10+ points ahead in the polls then there is something very wrong.
Falange.
Franco adopted a lot of the Falange’s policies and folded the Falange movement into the Carlist (royalist) movement to form the official “Nationalsyndicalismo”
I suppose Silvio is referring to a broad right-wing coalition taking hold of Italy that can contain both facists and the centre-right. The Falange’s legacy lasted for 40 years in Spain - a scary propostion if you’re on the left in Italy..
80- el windy,
I must say thank god we have a decent right wing party in this country. For all my sniping and left wing rhetoric one only has to look at Italy to appreciate just what a good, solid, decent, honest party the Conservative party is here.
And for all the Tory sniping, hand wringing, and talks of disaster, I am sure that they can put their hands up and admit that the Labour party in power hasn’t been that bad (exception of course bolted horse who would want to shoot all lefties for treachery).
We are really lucky in the UK to have a stable democracy with 2 great parties sharing power.
Italy is terrifying
It’s official: UK house prices have gone YOY negative. The long overdue 30 to 40% downward correction is underway.
That’s the main plank of Brown’s, speculative, debt-fuelled, ponzi economy pulled away. It’s the economy, stupid!!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7374730.stm
Interesting to see GIN playing down the Tory chances. Compare with Ealing South, where the Tories were starting in 3rd and had no hope of winning - they were talking it up then!
Interesting that at the same time as the Tories were winning spectacular by election victories at Strechford and Ashfield in early 1977, they failed to win Grimsby. There are some interesting parallels with Crewe. The by election at Strechford was caused when Roy Jenkins resigned to take up a well-paid job in the EU (although it was not called that then). There was a huge swing against Labour in the resulting by election.
The Grimsby by-election was caused by the sudden death of the widely-respected Tony Crosland. The Labour candidate to replace him was a well-known local TV presenter, Austin Mitchell. The result was that Labour held on in a seat notionally less safe than either Ashford or Strechford.
I write this from memory so all the details might not be exactly correct. But on the face of it Crewe looks similar to Grimsby. The Tories can expect a fight especially if Labour pick an attractive local candidate.
First annual fall in house prices for 12 years:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7374730.stm
Oh, how the voters must be pining for good-times Tony… Brown did Blair’s legacy a favour by forcing him out at the top of the feel-good curve. It could have been Blair facing all this grief - ahead of an ignominious slinking away later this summer. As ever, Gordon’s timing was impeccably bad.
98-Icarus- you should start calling her Firenze to confuse her.
I can never understand why we have to call foreign cities something different (vice versa other countries of course- i.e Londra)
101 - I would have thought the BNP intervention would make it slightly harder for the Tories to win Crewe as they are slightly more likely to attract people who would otherwise vote Tory (although many BNP voters would either not vote or vote for a party other than the Tories - not saying it is a uniform rule).
108 “The by election at Strechford was caused when Roy Jenkins resigned to take up a well-paid job in the EU”
As was Ashfield - former MP (Marchand?) did a runner - another significant reason Labour lost. Voters punish unneccesary by-elections. Another reason Crewe is a tricky win for the Tories.
107 We tories have to be winning in C&N and if we don’t then I would say we have a problem - the by-election team would need to be rebuilt from scratch and by-elections would need to be taken seriously by the national party.
I don’t think however that a loss by anything up to 1500 votes would be too bad a result but it would still be a bad result.
I see Sky is running the story about retrospective tax changes on “big” cars. Apparently anyone owning a big car will be hit with an extra 200 quid road tax bill - has frank field been consulted?
Quite, tyson, why doesn’t everyone just use English?
104- political capital- it was a complete myth to use the term “centre right” to describe Berlusconi’s coalition of ex forza Italia corrupt, cronies, the facist Northern League, and Fini’s rabble.
The old christian democrats under Casini were only central part of it, and they scarpered
88
Mussolini declared that, ‘The Fascist program is not a theory of dogmas about which no discussion is tolerated. Our programme is in process of continual elaboration and transformation.’ This pragmatism, opportunism, and open-endedness were already giving rise to the crticism that Fascists had no real doctrine save brute force.
Emphasis on action and dynamism, and the precept that action preceded ideology, had the effect of exaggerating the Fascist’s philosophical vitalism and nonrationalism.
Economically the party wanted to reduce state expenditures, improve the tax structure, eliminate most state subsidies, guarantee free trade, and encourage capital formation, as well as support the eight-hour day and progressive social legislation.
Well a bit there for everyone really!!
From A History of Fascism 1914-1945 by Stanley G. Payne.
ISBN: 1-85728-595-6 PB
93/103: The Tories have to be very careful not to do an Ealing Southall again by predicting a win, throwing everything into it and then not win.
Labour have already started the dirty tricks by tabling the writ before Gwyneth Dunwoody hasn’t even been buried.
117. Is it me or does that first paragraph sound suspiciously New Labour? Substitute “brute force” for “statism”.
112. It was Marquand. Prompting a famous intervention by Dennis Skinner during Roy Jenkins’ valedictory speech:
Roy Jenkins: “I leave this party without rancour.”
Skinner: “I thought you were taking Marquand with you.”
Marquand ended up going into academia, first at Salford and later in Oxford I think.
116) OK tyson, that sounds right.
I was just having a read of the Falange’s “27 puntos” which Franco adopted to see what policies might be in store for the new Italian Falange…
http://www.fuenterrebollo.com/Gobiernos/Politica/falange.html
I suspect that the Lib Dems would happily swop a decent third in C&N for a win in Henley a couple of weeks later.
Ralph, they could just gather up the “it will be difficult” posts of the assorted Conservatives on here. They have convinced me that they will be doing well if they save their deposit.
Tyson I thought the falange was Spanish not Italian.
74, Gee, anyone would think that Heffer disliked Johnson. Bearing in mind that Johnson had the courage to carry the can for Heffer’s piece in the Spectator insulting Liverpudlians, I’d see that piece as fairly contemptible on Heffer’s part (am I right in thinking that Heffer never had the balls to come forward and take the rap himself for his own (unsigned) piece?).
I worked in Crewe of a period. Depressing place. Depressing- watching the Alex at Gresty Road. Is Dario O Gradi still there?
I’ve heard it is full of Poles now- ripe for an Alemanno character to blame them for eating babies, bla, bla…
Dunwoody was liked, and known as the local MP, and will carry an incumbency factor.
I tell you what though I cannot see it flipping to the Tories. I have a good instinct for these things, and will be backing Labour in the last week or so of the contest when their price starts easing way out.
124 - “thought the falange was Spanish” - or Lebanese…
124- Witan- thanks. I have been corrected above. Getting my Francos and Mussolinis mixed up.
105,
“I must say thank god we have a decent right wing party in this country. For all my sniping and left wing rhetoric one only has to look at Italy to appreciate just what a good, solid, decent, honest party the Conservative party is here.”
Tyson waxing lyrical about the virtues of the Tory Party.
Has anyone checked the weather forecast for Hades - I’m predicting a sudden hard frost …
120 Thanks. Classic Skinner!
I disagree with Mike and various other posters that Crewe is a ‘must-win’ by-election for the Tories. It would be seen as a nasty set back but not a disaster because, in recent years, Parliamentary by-elections have become more like council by-elections, ie - often quite sui generis and hard to extrapolate.
Having said that, there is, of course, a broader truth underlying by-election results since 1997: voter resistance to the Conservative Party. Even when people have wanted to give Labour a kick they have not used the Tories as their weapon of choice. If Edward Timpson wins it mark a partial reversion to Ashfield-style by-election politics and a further stage in the rehabilitation of the Conservatives.
All three main parties - plus the BNP - will throw everything into Crewe, making it the most exciting by-election for ages (and a huge traffic generator for PB!). Let’s hope a newspaper is, even now, commissioning a poll of the constituency to give us some early indicators.
re my 94 Nick Robinson has picked up on Nicky Campbell’s interview with Gordon. I think the comment about Gordon speaking in “fluent human” very cutting..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2008/04/agony_for_the_pm.html
United States.
Democrat Michigan delegation.
New York Times reporting Clinton camp want a 73-55 delegate representation at the Convention, Obama a 64 - 64 split and “A Gang of Four” Michigan Democrat Power Brokers have suggested 69-59.
Obama has rejected that. At the level of 10 or less it hardly seems worth fighting over.
Boris out to 1.45 at BF. Will the last YouGov, which I suppose will be out today, show a tighter race?
If Rod is reading, he asked for an update on what could happen re MI and FL for the Democrats.
The Rules and Bylaws Committee meets on May 31st to decide whether to enforce, reduce or undo the punishment. One proposal has that MI and FL will get half their pledged and all their Superdelegates. The RBC set the original penalty, though may have acted ultra vires.
From there, the decision of whether to add some/any/all MI/FL delegates/SDs to the Temporary Roll (who can by default vote at the Convention prior to their being challenged) will be made by the much larger Credentials Committee which will meet (I think) on the 29th June. If on the Temporary Roll, Florida can vote to seat Michigan, and Michigan to seat Florida. The other surprising thing is that whilst ‘Uncommitted votes’ in MI should (IMHO) be added to Obama’s column, the resulting delegates should not be - the convention that chose ‘Uncommitted’ delegates in MI was dominated by those who chose the Clinton delegates, so up to half of the ‘Uncommitted’ Delegates could be for Clinton as well.
If the two states are added to the Temporary Roll (which would take 80% of the Credentials Committee, or 20% plus a majority of the Convention Floor including MI and FL) I think they’ll be sat in full.
If the Credentials Committee doesn’t add them to the Temporary Roll, I don’t think they’ll be seated at all.
If the RBC agrees a half-pledged-all-Superdelegates deal, it wil be because that has been accepted in advance by the State Party Chairmen. In such a case, they will not push for full admittance.
SO - if RBC passes the comprimise, that will be the solution.
If the RBC seats them in full, that will be the solution
If the RBC refuses to seat them, and they are not added to the Temporary Roll by the Credentials Committee, they will almost certainly not be seated
IF the RBC refuses to seat them, but the Credentials Committee adds them to the Temporary Roll (or submits a minority report to be confirmed by the Convention Floor), I’d give even odds that they are seated in full versus not being seated at all.
Could the Tories move the writ for Henley next Monday and hold that on 29 May? The Tories would pour all their resources into Crewe, and dare the Lib Dems to give Henley a go. That would probably result in two Tory victories.
109 - Bollocks to that. I want a 20% cut so that me and my girlfriend can stop chucking our money at buy to let crooks who wrecked the housing market in the first place and are hopefully getting their greedy piggy fingers burned.
**ends unusual socialist rant**
136 - Is there zero possibility of holding Henley on the 22nd as well? Maybe Boris could apply for the Chiltern Hundreds today if that would beat the deadline?
On to the by-election. I think we’ve forgotten how to contest them. In fact, we’ve hardly bothered for 20 years.
I won’t be putting a penny on us winning it unless I see some solid data saying we will. I have no faith in our by-election machinery
134
Jan, I have been watching for last 15 mins or so, BJ easing and someone trying to get laid with him, looks like yougov gonna make it closer.
BJ 1.5
KL 2.96
101% overround
129- watching Rome, a city traditionally known for being itellectually left (writers, filmakers, artists) flipping to a neo facist makes one a bit reflective. It does have a an extreme edge- the ultras, but this has always been marginal.
I go to Roma probably once a year- a hotel near the Piazza del Populo. It is such a wondrous city.
As el windy said above (80)- the left has collapsed. Italy is ruled by a populist who owns the media, and is openly antagonistic to the judiciary.
I think in the next few years we are going to see the re-emergence of left wing terrorism in Italy, and a bloody cycle of right wing re-crimination and violence. The back drop will be economic collapse, forced withdrawal from the Euro, further marginalisation, and open state and Berlusconi media hostility to immigration.
As Philiipe said earlier the past becomes the future and the present.
@138:
PEDANT POINT:
Boris will probably apply for the Manor of Northstead, not the Chiltern Hundreds.
NICK PALMER NOMINATED FOR AWARD …. NICK PALMER NOMINATED FOR AWARD
The Jacobite News Network (JNN) can exclusively reveal to PB that Nick Palmer has been nominated for the monthly VIP award. The much coveted Vomit Inducing Politician Award comes after Mr Palmer acting as a surrogate for spineless ministers (again)appeared on Radio4 to defend the scrapping of the first increase in ten years to prisioners of 150 pennies a week to a grand total of £5.50 per week !!!
Mr Palmer was barely audible above the rampant nationwide laughter as he indicated that the government decision had absolutely nothing to do with elections within 48 hours. Accident and Emergency Rooms in hospitals throughout the land have reported long queues of patients awaiting treatment from rib tickling injuries caused by one of the funniest statements by a government MP in decades.
@141:
Yes, the civil war that will engulf and destroy the EU will probably start in Italy. It seems as good a flashpoint as any.
105 Tyson. I agree. Most concerned Italians are forever pointing to the lack of “senso civico” in Italian society. We have no Sir Humphrey’s who can keep things ticking over despite the stupidity of the elected representatives. The average Italian mayor thinks that he/she can turn their hands at all levels of administration, including road sweeping, and the average road sweeper thinks they have full mayoral powers.
117 coldstone. Its not incidental that the only authors who have been capable of objectively analysing fascism in Italy have been English.
140 EDW “Jan, I have been watching for last 15 mins or so, BJ easing and someone trying to get laid with him, looks like yougov gonna make it closer.”
How hard can it be to get laid with Boris?
123: The Tories will be up against the Labour spin machine, that though damaged by Brown and Balls, still works. Better to make a win in Crewe look unlikely then win, than make it look certain then lose.
145: Apart from say Emilio Gentile.
tyson @ 105- Heartwarming post and one of the pleasantest I have read for some time.
143 - Not saying it was nothing to do with the elections, but did anyone actually think that Prisoners should get the payrise? I’m not entirely sure why prisoners get paid.
What sort of muppet proposes such a rise when public sector pay is being constrained to below 2% (except for teachers)
146
Please, this is a family show and all three of Ken’s families are watching!
124) Yes the Fallange were Spanish not Italian. Berlusconi is the one drawing the parallels between his coalition and the Spanish Falange. “We are the new Falange” said he..
Now, Mayoral election - WHERE ARE YOU DON?!
WRT Franco, Anthony Beevor makes a (on the face of it) odd, but actually well-argued comparison between the early years of the Franco regime and the communist governments in Eastern Europe, in the chapter of his book entitled “The Franquist Gulag.” Franco’s regime kept hundreds of thousands imprisoned throughout the 1940s, proscribed freemasonry, nationalised wide swathes of industry with minimal compensation, and treated the Church as an arm of the State. A regime founded on an anti-communist crusade ended up resembling communist regimes in a number of respects.
Franco’s government was actually a good deal more brutal and authoritarian than that of Mussolini.
@105:
That’s very touching, Tyson. The problem is, of course, that those supposedly honourable parties of the left support the structures that are giving rise to Italy’s descent: the European Union.
You are part of the problem. Only we can be part of the solution.
@151:
Are you expecting a sneak preview of tomorrow’s result?