Will this help Ken get his vote out?
April 30th, 2008
Will playing the victim card galvanise the activists?
Reproduced above is part of a press release issued this morning by Team Ken in what will probably be the last big move of the campaign. It consists of an attack on the planned YouGov poll that will be published tomorrow as well as the more detailed case of the complaint against the pollster that has been made to the Market Research Society.
The objectives appear to be to further smear YouGov, to discredit the latest polling, to further present Ken as the victim of a campaign by the Evening Standard - all this to reinforce the activists to work harder over the next 36 hours
This is about getting his core vote out - something that Ken and Labour have always found to be more challenging than the Tories.
The final messages on the final day of a campaign can have an impact and this one looks quite smart.
The complaint is about politics and not the science of polling. Every single phone poll that’s ever been held during London mayoral campaigns has massively over-estimated Ken’s vote we didn’t hear complaints from his team then. In 2004 even the online pollster YouGov, in its final poll in 2004, over-estimated Ken’s first preference lead.
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Mike Smithson
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Isn’t some of this bordering on the libellous? this attempt to besmirch YouGov is really quite appalling. YouGov might be wrong but the implication is that they are acting deliberately to boost Boris.
PREVIOUS THREAD - JackW post 328 - would just like to associate myself with those sentiments entirely and Labour supporters should be ashamed of their government’s posturing on this.
Too late . .
Previous thread 367: “So the pb.com collective opinion is that Flint succeeding Brown would see a very positive response from male swingometers”
The mere thought of it has already elicited a favourable response from my own swingometer…
So, they’ve gone from self-pitying whining to all-out “let’s libel Yougov” mode.
Livingstone is a grotesque parody.
Mike - for the benefit of those of us who can’t watch PMQs at work
what’s your objective verdict on today’s bout?
Would suggest this confirms that Ken knows the game is up.
He might as well load up the removal van tomorrow.
This wreaks of desperation from the Livingstone camp. If this is his last message to the London electorate, whining about pollsters and newspapers then it shows how vacuous and unsuccessful his campaign has been.
My take is they know they are losing this election.
Absolutely outrageous. YouGov are being hounded for doing nothing other than their job!
Reposted from previous thread:
366. ““Meanwhile, Mr Livingstone has submitted a formal complaint to the Market Research Foundation over a series of opinion polls by YouGov, including one due to appear on the morning of polling day itself, which give Mr Johnson double digit leads.”
THAT means that someone has seen the YouGov poll for tomorrow and Johnson has AT LEAST a 10% 1st preference lead, even with 36 hours to go.
So, there has been no contraction of Boris Johnson lead in the last few days.
That makes the 1.5 on Betfair Uber-UBER-value. Get it while it’s hot!
This is over.
Why won’t these NuLabour Stalinists just go quietly?
3. it could well have a ‘big tent’ effect, I think.
;o)
So much for the dignity of the office of Mayor, Mr. Livingstone.
He won’t be missed. My only fear is that, with nothing else to do with his day, Ken will spend his days here on pb.com, passing judgment on female MP’s…..
I see Betfair is already moving to Boris…
The substance of the Livingstone camapaign is that they disagree with some elements of YouGov’s methodology, and nothing more. How they get from there to a formal complaint and then from a formal complaint to implying a deliberate conspiracy is where it gets dodgy.
The age profile stuff is probably tosh anyway. Londoners will know that a significant proportion of the 18-35 year olds in the city are Easter European and extremely unlikely to be on the register, let alone to actually vote.
Interesting to hear MPs Winterterton (x2) and Hughes giving the Labour party a pasting for moving the C & N by-election writ before Gwyneth Dunwoody’s funeral. Might be an election issue.
3 You must be desperate, Bob, if you think that that ranting, old boot, Flint, is a bit of alright.
Surprisngly low key PMQ’s. I think Cameron knows Labour are going to get a hiding tomorrow whatever he ask’s today, so he decided to lay the ground work for Browns next disaster.
Thought Brown was a bit better - Not so much bellowing - But a bit better is still very poor.
Clegg - Why does he keep shouting and having a go at the Tories? He seems a bit odd?
15. they were then made to look like complete idiots when the reason was read out!
The Daily Mirror has a surprisingly balanced piece on Boris:
http://tinyurl.com/6kq8jy
As for Ken, who chose that terrible pic? He looks like a weasel planning a robbery.
17 I thought the stuttering oaf Brown looked even more desperate and out of touch than usual. The walls are closing in on Gordon methinks.
PMQs: why all the emphasis on 42 days? i know its all parliamentary posturing, but is there anyone out there who really cares what that limit is? it seems to me that whatever position you take you are opening yourself up to criticism.
and surely a real parliamentary rebellion is unlikely when jobs are actually on the line - because the MPs’ postbags can’t be full of objections, surely?
11. I notice Mark Senior gets a name check in the detailed complaint..will wonders never cease…also shows Ken and his team have been avidly following PB.com!! at least they have done something sensible.
18 - What reason was given?
16 Agree. Flint = hard-hearted hectoring fish-wife.
I’d rather sign up for celibacy.
Mark Senior? You dirty old bastard.
Shilling for Livingstone? Libelling Yougov? What else have you been up to?
23. From the guardian website:
“The decision to call the by-election now is in accordance with the family’s wishes to see, as soon as possible, a new member of parliament elected to stand up for the people of Crewe and Nantwich.”
The Dunwoody family said: “We fully support the decision to begin the process of electing a new MP for Crewe and Nantwich. Our mother proudly represented this constituency for 34 years and would not want to see local people go without an MP.”
Brown is really stupid to box himself in over the 42 day issue. It just looks like he’s doing it to make the opposition appear soft on terrorism and because superficially the polls seem to support the extension. After the exaggerations and distortion leading up to the Iraq invasion I’m not prepared to give them the right to lock fellow Britons up for 6 weeks without charge on the off chance that it may possibly be necessary some time in the future. Ignore political calculation: this is just wrong.
23. Apparently Tamsin Dunwoody name has been put forward as a possible successor to the seat as well.
3.”Will playing the victim card galvanise the activists?”
Rather than a last minute negative attack on Boris, the strategy seems to be to attack the messengers instead. Its an incredible negative way to campaign, and it did not work for Labour in Scotland last year when the opposition were campaigning on a much more positive platform.
It was easy for Labour to get away with this kind of negative tactics when they were riding high in the polls and faced no significant opposition in London, Westminster and Holyrood. Now that they are unpopular and people are genuinely angry at the behaviour of the Labour party as a whole, it could be seen as a very desperate last political gamble, the risk of it backfiring is huge.
If Labour voters think they have been real victims of a Labour administration they might not take kindly to this, but it shows Ken is worried about his core vote turning out tomorrow. Wonder what those internal polls have been telling him?
Surely a complaint about YouGove’s “big leads for Boris Johnston” can only be appropriate AFTER the election result is known? Then, and only then, can YouGov and the other pollsters be considered right, wrong or slightly out.
PMQs didn’t really live up to the billing. Cameron was good, Brown was stuttering but that is par for the course. Clegg, though, continues to amaze me. His attacks on the Tories are bizarre to say the least and even though he took the better subjects he fluffed both questions (particularly the first). Backbenchers were far more entertaining this week!
“Will playing the victim card galvanise the activists?”
In a word, No. It’s like Hitler ranting and raving at people giving him bad news in Spring 1945.
@32:
Somebody needs to re-subtitle an “Untergang” viral for Ken.
I don’t think it’s been done yet.
Th 42 days detention thing has so far done nothing but harm to Brown. No real reasons have been given for it’s creation, apart form ‘it may come in handy’, and a tory bash. The real reason behind it’s creation is simple, to bash the tories, to make them look weak over terror. That’s it. Like the Lisbon treaty labour has started a fight over something in order to split the tories, and succeeded in only splitting themselves and giving the tories more targets to aim for.
From labour home;
Cabinet reshuffle at weekend?
http://www.labourhome.org/story/2008/4/29/74353/4688
@35:
Rearranging the twats on the deck of the titanic?
Did I say twats? I meant twats.
Apologies if this has been posted earlier. Sam Coates (Times) take on what the parties are saying about their expectations on the local elections. Interesting summary reading between the lines.
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/2008/04/local-elections.html
26. NuLabour are truly beyond contemptible..that is the weakest excuse for politicking I have ever seen and to make the family spout it to give some credibility is outrageous.
What is not surprising is that they deliver such obviously incredible spin and believe people will fall for it, Brown must relaise no one believes a word he says anymore but judging from this morning and PMQ’s he seems oblivious and keeps up teh mendacious nonsense . Utterly disgraceful.
19. LOL!. BTW I did enjoy your description of the Nazi leader as a cross between Peter Mandleson and Himmler.
BTW, I had a comment put into moderation yesterday (which you would probably have missed). Did you know that Colin Jordan, Fuhrer of the British Movement, had to resign after being found guilty of stealing a pair of red knickers from M & S?
31, he is quite odd. Attacking the Tories when Labour are less popular than Chamberlain in 1940 is an, ahem, unorthodox tactic.
35.That’s a favoured ploy to divert the media away from dire election results.
38. I think you might be playing politics with the family yourself now.
Personally I think some constitutional amendment should be drafted and discussed by both parties to set out the proper way of doing things on these occasions.
I can over look the stuttering. Its a bit off-putting, but I had a friend at school that stuttered and I know how horrible and embarassing it can be, so I actually feel some sympathy for Brown over this.
Its the shouting, screaming and bellowing that really puts me off Brown, and fortunatly we didn’t get so much of that today.
Incidentally, has anybody noticed that at times Brown holds his wrist, like he’s taking hus pulse? Could this be some sort of calming mechanism he does? I think if you press certain pressure points in the body, its supposed to slow down the heart rate and breathing?
19: ‘The Daily Mirror has a surprisingly balanced piece on Boris’
You had me intrigued there for a minute - didn’t spot the irony!
40. But by attacking the Tories isnt Clegg actually inviting disgruntled Labour supporters to come to the LabDemers instead. I can see the logic in that but he must then realise that puts tension on his Southern seats so it is a tightrope.
36
Martin, can you spell that for me please mate, I didn’t quite get it.
All he has to do is wait until Friday, if he wins then YouGov were wrong and he should complain to the MRS about them, but if he loses then they were right and the others wrong.
I’m a Tory canvasser and i can confirm that Boris appears to be ahead, by about 5%.
There you are Ken, if i turn out to be a lier please report me to the site owner, we’ll soon find out.
40. Makes complete sense - if you want a hung parliament, and not a landslide one way or the other, you attack the stronger of the two.
34. Weird isn’t it - but then again i thought it was a bad choice of subject for most of Cameron’s questions today. He seemed to be trying to force Brown to box himself into the position (in the expectation of a u-turn), and then follow up by insisting on this as a confidence issue.
I thought
* Brown did OK in response to the first point, and did have some ammo to throw back, which made the follow up a bit weird (because he hadn’t definitively won the first argument)
* wasn’t Brown already committed on the first point anyway?
* surely this won’t turn out to be more important to Lab backbenchers than 10p tax? surely?
* this one might have been better left to the parliamentary press to tear Lab apart over, giving a chance to ask about something more pertinent
Clegg was a bit dodgy today, both his questions were badly delivered and he just invited Lib-bashing.
The backbenchers were indeed the most amusing - but they always are, aren’t they?
43. Brown’s main problem is he starts bellowing when he dissagrees with someone, and tries to deride them. It’s his main tactic at Cameron, he tries to deride and insult him, depserately wanting to prove he can knock Cameron down like the big clunking fist he wishes he was. In reality it looks a bit silly and whatever he says or does won’t even scratch Cameron now. He has a large lead in the polls and is slwoly becoming more popular, why would he care what Brown throws at him? Especially as he knows Brown buckles under pressure.
@48:
Do the Lib Dems not want to knock Labour into third place?
You won’t get to be HM Oppo by attacking Dave.
45, fair point, though PMQs isn’t the place to attack a fellow opposition party. Indeed, he can hidely complain about being shouted down when he does all he can to annoy 550 MPs.
47, I hope Yougov are vindicated. It’s unseemly and childish to cry about the pollster because the public don’t like you enough, and enither the Tories nor the Lib Dems did it recently when they were in bad situations.
Data from Hitwise, the internet traffic measuring company, shows Boris’s website is getting more hits than his rivals’. Doesn’t necessarily translate into votes but might help justify his favouritism.
Interestingly, though, Paddick gets the most from ’social networking’ sites.
Full story at http://view.exacttarget.com/?j=fe7515727767047c7414&m=fefc1774726706&ls=fdef11757461007e7711797c&l=fe8e15767363027f70&s=fe5716777c6d047b7214&ju=fe2815747061017a751d73
Apologies for the way the above link has come out…
39. It was the gay ageing bootboy chaperone that I compared to a cross between Mandelson and Himmler, with a dash of weasel. I may have maligned the weasel.
Did you see my comment yesterday about your extraordinary store of fascist sex gossip? I was wondering where it came from. Is it a hobby? It’s very amusing.
It also occurred to me that you might be planning a book or something. If not, you should. I’m semi-serious. Something like that could be commercial - a bizarre history of far right movements, focussing on the outre sexual tittle tattle.
Publishers reckon that if you put a swastika on a cover you double your sales immediately. Your cover could feature swastikas, p@ntyhose, fur handcuffs and Hitler embracing a naked ladyboy.
You’d sell millions.
re 5. My view of PMQs?
I thought that Cameron was very mindful of his comments yesterday about Punch and Judy politics and was deliberately more restrained. This was all about putting Gordon into a corner over the 42 day issue and trying to get over the message that Brown was yet again doing something solely for a political advantage. The 42 days is nothing to do with terrorism but simply a device for being able to say the Tories are soft on terror. It’s good medium term politics and this is something that can be developed further.
I think that Brown is getting his act together better but he still isn’t good at the jokes. The way he leans on the dispatch box seems to calm his physical nerves. The salesman sound-bite didn’t quite carry.
I won’t talk about Clegg until after the local elections.
Will Friday be the first time in over 20 years with Ken not having any sort of elected office?
He was leader of the GLC 1982-1986, then MP from 1987, then Mayor from 2000. I guess he won’t go quietly and he’ll blame Gordon for his defeat.
Maybe even the new King across the water for Labour? Wonder if we’ll get (long) odds on Ken becoming next leader?
47. by Friday, no amount of complaining will achieve anything for him.
likewise, it doesn’t really matter whether his complaint has any merit - because he has made it publicly, before the vote, and the result won’t be known until after the vote.
if the complaint is completely invalid and yougov turn out to be right, then nothing he does now could win it anyway. he has to assume he can still win, and he is taking only a small gamble by smearing the poll.
57. Gordon? Or YouGov?
56. I agree about the 42 days. Cameron see’s it as a chance to call the governments bluff and see if they will fight for it. He has his party, the lib dems and a few labour MP’s on his side. If it goes through Cameron will promise to remove it, if it doesn’t he will show it as a victory. The entire point of the legislation was to split the tories into the modern Cameron type lot and the old school hard liners, and like the lisbon debate all it’s done is made the tories even more unified.
The other reason that Cameron wouldn’t want to go on the local elections is because he doesn’t want to get drawn on the “what is a good result” question. Pickles on Newsnight last night said 100 net gains and 40% was the “good” bar for the Tories.
56. Sounds ominous for Cleggites.
55 I would like to place my pre-order for Sean Fear’s Miscellany of Far-Right Wierdo’s and it’s follow up the Gallimaufry of Communist Pervs and their downfalls.
@62:
It does, doesn’t it?
So, if Thursday is not good enough, does that mean that PBC stories about “who will be the next Lib Dem leader?” might start appearing?
58. I think those are very good points. He really has not got anything to lose so he may as well try everything at his disposal. Ken has not got where he has by playing fair. He is a supreme election winning machine with all the tricks up his sleeve. As Mike points out it is very much aimed at GOTV and judging by some of the astroturfers on here in recent days there are plenty of people willing to listen to Ken’s spin.
@63:
“Schmutz mach Frei”
While I know we are supposed to be outraged by this attack on YouGov, blah blah… the fact is that If Ken does win, there will be no hiding place for YouGov. I also note that we seem to have a strong consensus on Pb.com that the result is likely to be a lot closer than the YouGov findings are showing.
We shall see, but I for one do not feel confident enough in these polls to trade on them. I smell a rat somewhere- including the affair of the mysterious Don…
Still, in 48 hours we shall know for sure.
355 (previous thread) Thanks Caveman, for a typical piece of logical thinking - I’m on.
The other Wm Hill Mayoralty special I like is their 7/4 on offer for turnout exceeding 43%. Given the public interest and the media coverage, not to mention the closeness of the contest, this looks to me like a “Gimme”.
66. Re Clegg, FWIW I have now realised why he was such a spineless a$$ on the referendum question. It’s because he knew the Lib Dems in the Lords would vote down a referendum (as they did), whatever the Lib Dems in the Commons decided.
This would have been even more disastrous than the pathetic in-or-out fudge Clegg came up with. The Lib Dems would have been split right down the middle, with their peers vetoing a crucial and controversial amendment actively supported by Lib Dem MPs. Nasty.
So he had no choice but to back away from the referendum pledge. This probably suited his europhile instincts anyway, and the numbing duplicity will, I think, come back to haunt Lib Dems in the future (which is why cleverer people like Cable disagreed with the decision) - but I can see why, on narrow politics, Clegg did what he did.
Still doesn’t make him any good as a leader. He is mediocrity with a floppy haircut.
Ken now 3.05 on Betfair
67. I actually think it’ll be very comfortable for Boris. 7% or something like that.
incidentally if there is a man that should be pressing 42 days as an issue, it is Nick Clegg. he could hope to achieve some dissent within both Con and Lab ranks, and wouldn’t have to resort to “underarm” type questions, like today, just asking for a commanding putdown.
@67:
If Ken wins, Yougov will be in deep weewee, certainly. Likewise MORI.
Yougov have more to gain from being right though. The opportunity to rub Michael White’s kendump-smeared nose in it will be priceless.
67. See I told you there were people buying his spin..
You want us to believe that Don is part of a conspiracy with YouGov and The Evening Standard to Rob White Knight Ken, champion of the left, at his rightful place as Mayor…Come on be serious…
Apart from anything Boris has his own GOTV issues so would prefer tight polls…yes YouGov may have got it wrong but their methods are no more suspect than Mori or ICM’s and to suggest otherwise is just rollocks.
67. they _must_ be wrong. A believable poll should be accompanied by 2 equal sized factions saying “i have a feeling this is an underestimate” and “i have a feeling this is an overestimate”
Not even the most optimistic Boris supporters are expecting 11% to be a significant underestimate
56 - your last line was your most interesting, and for Nick Clegg, ominous.
So far as a cabinet reshuffle is concerned, the Spectator has an excellent post today:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/643316/in-crisis-therell-be-an-opportunity-for-brown.thtml
But I don’t think he’s got the nerve for this sort of reshuffle either.
72. Dissent in tory ranks? They’re against it, unless Clegg is for it I don’t see how he can foster dissent.
I thought Tractors was quite impressive today - helped by Dave leading on the wrong subject.
He looked smart (new suit perhaps?)and thoroughly on top of his brief and he even managed to smile at a couple of Dave’s gags, but most noticably of all he seemed a whole lot more relaxed(new medication?).
New Monmouth University/Gannett Presidential Poll for New Jersey :
McCain 38% .. Clinton 52%
McCain 32% .. Obama 56%
http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP16_1.pdf
77. there are Cons who could probably have been persuaded to rebel on the issue, that is probably why Brown raised it. These MPs will never do so to undermine Cameron and support Brown, but they might have done so if the Libs had taken this on.
Once again apologies if this has already posted but here is an excellent guide to Thursdays elections from the Electoral Reform Society.
http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/downloads/elections2008mediaguide.pdf
76. That really is a good spectator article. where i would differ with its analysis is this
He should get a new Home Sec in who would decide to abandon 42 days in new examination of subject. and the idea of Brown appearing on TV admitting error in running things will only subject the public to his weird smile and fake relaxed interview style which just scares the general public.
Clearly it’s worrying that in previous elections Ken’s vote has been overstated, but this happened for Labour throughout the 90’s, but by 2005 the pollsters had got the weightings about right.
He’s trying to make clear that the Evening Standard is out to get him and so can’t be trusted. I respect YouGuv but given the Evening Standard’s stance, you do wonder about the impartiality.
I mean polling is seen as scientific, but it’s rather curious that ICM for the Guardian is more positive towards labour and YouGuv in the telegraph more towards the Tories. Are newspapers choosing pollsters who overstate ‘their’ Party, or might the pollsters adapt their survey to likely suit their client.
I’ve just have concerns about polls carried out for a very partial newspaper.
80. The lib dems would never vote for this measure, and Clegg knows it.
83 - It’s more likely that the paper picks the polling company that seems to overstate ‘their’ party, I doubt the polling companies are actively going out of their way to produce false results
83. How many times…
Which pollster showed 13% leads for Labour before the Tory conference last year?
YouGov.
Did you complain then?
No.
Get a grip!
Boris has tightened from 1.49 to 1.43 in the last few minutes.
I’m going to repost this as I think I posted it in the wrong place before:
I wonder if there is a systematic flaw in YouGov’s London polling. Looking at the detail of pre-2005 election polls, YouGov consistently showed the Conservatives leading by margins of up to 11 points in London, and an average margin of 7 points, with the worst poll showing them level. Yet the popular vote in London gave Labour a 7 point margin over the Tories. In no other region was the direction of the vote so wrong.
While I accept that this may be reading too much into the detail of polls, which may not be statistically adjusted at that level of detail, it perhaps points to a risk that there is a systematic problem with YouGov’s sampling in London.
Apologies to all if this is already well-known, but I thought it was an interesting point in the debate about YouGov vs all the other pollsters in London.
The results will obviously speak for themselves, so we will know on Friday who is right and who is wrong.
88 - The sample for the London region is a lot smaller than the samples used for the Mayoral polls.
89 - I mean the sample for the London region “in the national polls”… sorry!
Just had a horrible thought…
Imagine if Brown had gone in September 2007 and WON.
We’d have to put up with this shower of morons and the to$$pot-in-chief himself until September 2012.
ANOTHER FOUR-AND-A-HALF YEARS.
Thank f**k he didn’t.
86. Given what happened susequently, that might have been a rogue.
92 - But yougov have consistently been showing Boris in the lead, less chance of a rouge perhaps?
83.”He’s trying to make clear that the Evening Standard is out to get him and so can’t be trusted. I respect YouGuv but given the Evening Standard’s stance, you do wonder about the impartiality.”
Frank, what newspaper impartiality? Trying to get an impartial political stance from the Scottish papers is difficult, simple because they have in the past tended to be very pro Labour…
Take the Scottish Sun’s front page on election day up here last year, I would have more luck finding the Loch Ness monster than a link to that front page online, or so it seems so can’t you show it.
Take the Telegraph and Simon Heffer, do you think that the Tories will get a crumb of comfort out of him between now and a GE. That paper was once known as the Torygraph, now its a cross between UKIPPER and Labourlite, or should I say anyone but the Tories.
88. You might have a point…
If YouGov had not called the 2004 London Mayoral the most accurately of them all.
91. To be honest, despite all the ‘weak’ jibes thrown at Brown, I don’t believe he would have won an election. As soon as the rumour started to circulate, the Tories showed real discipline and the very best Brown could probably hope for was a majority of 20 or 30.
I’m convinced cameron would have cut Brown’s lead during an election campaign.
87. It’s probably Mr. Smithson!
89. I agree that that is true, and I would not want to place too much statistical weight on it, but it is strange how consistent the YouGov data was during the 2005 election polls and how far wrong it was vs the final result. This was not the case in the other regions.
http://www.opinion-tracker.co.uk
Ken’s mood swing. A bargain at 2/1
Opinion Tracker monitors what the general public are saying about different issues around the net (across forums, blogs, social networks etc.), and at the moment they’ve picked the London Mayoral elections to track.
The results are pretty interesting, as they provide a guide to the underlying mood of people towards the candidates, as well as a sense of how much buzz they’re generating online and the kinds of conversations that are being had online about them.
The Mayoral Election results delivered by Opinion Tracker for the last week show that Boris Johnson has created the most “buzz” with a buzz metric of 43, followed by Ken Livingstone on 19.3, Sian Berry on 10.1 and Brian Paddick on 6.
The most significant mover this week in our “mood index” has been Ken, who’s up 42% from -15 to -8.7. This swing in positive sentiment towards Ken is matched in recent election Polls, which have shown an increase in support for Ken.
There’s also some quite interesting trends emerging online, such as “Tube-stepping” - a new form of door-stepping from so-called citizen journalists.
re 9) 87) Boris’s price is likely to contract further.
It appears that Ken has leaked yougov’s last poll tomorrow saying that Boris’s lead is at least 10% (from 11%) - is it actually higher? - is this accurate?
96. He might have lost 50 seats. Still enough to govern for a full-term though!
Would have been an absolute disaster seeing him limp through for another 5 years..
If/when the Tories storm to victory/do reasonably well then Heffer and the equally vile Sunday Mail’s Hitchens won’t back down - they don’t believe in democracy, they believe they are right.
Casino, I assume you will be paying for the humble pie you will be serving to all concerned on this website… Friday 2pm at your club in St James?
Was Ken ever rude about the pollsters when they consistently overestimated him? No.
If YouGov are right, I suppose he will turn his critical attention to Mori for being so wrong? No.
Odious man.
99 - Massively scientific there!
100. I reckon he is bluffing. It is just a bit of electioneering and playing the underdog
RAMPING ALERT!!!
Liberal Democrat election chief Lord Rennard has predicted “lots and lots of gains” for the Conservatives in tomorrow’s local elections.
The party’s chief executive believes Labour are set for big setbacks across the local elections, despite the party in government needing gains to recover from its disastrous post-Iraq 2004 showing.
Lord Rennard believes “par” for the Tories is a gain of around 300 seats, a higher expectation than most analysts who believe 200 is a more realistic target.
He predicted David Cameron’s party will do particularly well where they are represented at Westminster and in the suburbs, but believes the real test comes in town centres.
Lord Rennard singled out Oldham as a “bellwether” for the Tories’ prospects. The Conservatives held a majority there in the 1979 elections which swept Margaret Thatcher to power, but are now reduced to just three seats.
“This, and areas like it, are the areas the Conservatives must win if they are to stand a chance of winning the next general election,” he told journalists in Westminster.
On his own party’s prospects, Lord Rennard hinted that overall losses are a strong possibility. The Lib Dems lost 246 seats in 2007 and, despite only aiming to show a “significant improvement” on that result, Lord Rennard remained upbeat.
“We believe the elections will reveal who are best-placed to challenge Labour,” he added.
In many areas, however, the Lib Dems are on the defensive against attacks from both the left and right.
The Tories are expected to push the Lib Dems “backwards” in rural areas, while Labour are posting a strong challenge in areas like Cardiff, Newcastle and Sheffield.
This is no more the case than in Liverpool, where the Lib Dems currently hold 47 seats. Forty-six are needed for control and Labour have acknowledged the city is their “number one target”.
“It’s a straight fight,” Lord Rennard admitted.
100. Correct.
It is a double-digit lead, which means it is at least 10% on 1st preferences - and is partially an exit poll on the back of postal votes, as Sean Fear has alluded to.
That information alone is enough to act on.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if Boris had extended his lead to 12%/13%.
Even if you take the view that YouGov overestimates the Ken-Boris swing by 3-4% - Boris is still clearly in the lead and will take the Mayoralty.
Endgame.
Not much attention paid to the car tax ‘I didn’t lie, just didn’t spell it out’ con on here today.
Its been all over the radio. Alistair is coming out badly. Another story where they hid the truth but will not be able to hide the bills.
Radio 5 ran it as a ‘hitting the poor again’ story as the backdating of the increased duty will catch alot of people with fairly ordinary cars just which are afew years old. Not a good story on election eve.
103. “Dolphins” - you crack me up!
I think it’s much more likely you’ll be sharing a deep-water tank with ‘Free Willy’ at London Zoo on Friday.
I’ll come and visit - throw rugby balls and mackerel at you.. Don’t worry.
Ken’s been doing his own polling, yet has not published any of it since the early one showing him with a narrow lead. Curious, huh?
This from Ken is just using his last days in office to get attention to his story about how he wuz robbed by YouGov.
108. so if it is deliberate misinformation from Ken and the margin on the poll is more like 5%, he can play it as massive momentum…?
that would be a real brinksman’s play so close to the voting.
Whether the Livingstone team is right or wrong to attack the integrity of YouGov polling, it is surely wrong to publish opinion poll findings on the day an election is taking place. Can anyone explain why an opinion poll is necessary the day before the actual result is announced?
115 - Why are published opinion polls necessary at all? They’re not, but they help to sell newspapers…
114 - What exactly is wrong with it - it doesn’t break any laws as you are not telling people who you actually put the X next to in the ballot box, you are telling them how you might vote for, there is a subtle difference!
88,
Are the areas referred to as “London” in the (non-demographically weighted) subsets of the national poll and the (demographically weighted) Mayoral polls directly equivalent?
I seem to recall that many pollsters work to TV regions - and the TV region of London is probably significantly bigger than Greater London itself, taking in significant areas of the (largely Tory) Home Counties - which would directly explain it.
116 They have a moratoriumon polling in some countries, for as much as 3 days before an election.
You should vote because you support a candidate and feel moved enough to do so, not as a reaction to the votes cast by another. Thats the theory.
I’d be surprised if Livingstone actually has got Yougov’s figures. But I do take the point that if his private polling was better, he’d probably release details.
If this bad news from Iraq continues through the summer then McCain’s chances will diminish :
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080430/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_080428200059
re 114. At the 2005 general election YouGov, Harris and MORI all published polls on the day itself. It’s quite common.
re 117. I might be wrong but I think that when you register with YouGov you are asked about your TV region. There are a lot of overlap areas for London yet you would have thought that a simple postcode should have been used.
On the actual topic itself, if I were Kellner, I’d take it to litigation for libel in any case, for:
- Stating that it’s a deliberately (planned) flawed poll
- Implying that YouGov are not a “reputable” company
Both of which look (to my untrained eye) possibly actionable as deliberate attempts to harm YouGov.
It’s also fairly contemptible. I wasn’t going to vote for Livingstone in any case; this has handed my second preference vote to Brian (I disliked his “Greater London entry charge” idea) in the highly unlikely event that Boris doesn’t make the top two (in which case, all pollsters would probably be marched to a wall and shot
)
Ken’s key campaigning tactic now relies on portraying Boris as a joke candidate, a non-credible choice. He’s hoping for last-minute wobbles in the voting booths as voters ask themselves “can Boris really do this job?”.
Big polling leads undermine that wobble effect, by shoiwng that plenty of people do consider the candidate to be credible - that’s why Ken is so scared of YouGov
119. Ken’s bodylanguage has definitely been that of a man heading for defeat. He’s looked resigned, deflated, and a little weary.
You wouldn’t see that from a man who is getting private polls which tell him he’s romping to victory, or indeed that it will be very close. They must be giving him pretty bad news.
PS Sorry to harp on this theme - but the “Far Right Freakshow” book idea is still intriguing me. If you don’t write it, I will. I suspect you would do it miles better!
122 Didn’t Anthony Wells answer this and say that the YouGov respondents are all within the Mayoral constituency?
121. I think it is an effect of this bizarre 24 hour news culture we now seem to live in, where the rumours _are_ the news most of the time. Reporting something when it actually happens puts you behind the game.
22. Is that really true? Is the Livingstone campaign relying on half-baked bits of analysis from obsessive posters on a chat site? If so, they really are very desperate indeed…
125. matter of time before someone turns up to spuriously claim that all these people were actually far _left_
114. Ken’s astroturf mob seem rather subdued today, although not entirely absent…
122,
Would they bother with a postcode system for the national polls, though? After all, the regional subsamples are unweighted demographically anyway and usually small; sharpening their accuracy in just the geographical area would probably be pointless.
100, 108. Ken has NOT leaked the results of YouGov’s poll due out tomorrow.
It was posted on this site 2 days ago that the closing date for YouGov panel members to complete their on-line survey was today at 2pm. YouGov will then have to compile the results so it is impossible that the results are already known.
I think there will be a reshuffle on Friday to distract from the election results
It will be the day of the long butter knives and simply leave the Brownship undermanned and lightly officered.
But then that is what the old stalinist wants, isn’t it, Sychophants-R-Us.
132) So Ken is slating a poll result he has not seen…
She’s hardly an unbiased observer, but Nadine’s report of Commons Tea Ladies reacting to the Brown Tax Cut in their payslips is indicative of how many will be reacting across the country.
http://www.dorries.org.uk/Blog.aspx
I argued from the start of Brown’s premiership that he was a wily tactician with no strategic sense, in the teeth of received opinion that Gordon was the great strategist.
Could you imagine a true strategist like the Duke of Wellington or Napoleon, Blair or Thatcher, failing to notice the coincidence a tax increase and an election?
” The YouGov polls are sampled from the government region of London, not the TV region.
by Anthony April 28th, 2008 at 1:43 pm”
There’s some hoop-la surrounding Obama in North Carolina :
http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/24373569/
125 - I don’t care who writes it, I’d read it.
128. Yes ..here is what teh detailed complaint said
“Whether YouGov has ascertained that this is the case for some or all of these respondents is not clear, but the issue was raised on the Polling Report blog by a regular contributor (Mark Senior, on 8 April) who stated that he had been asked to complete a YouGov London voting poll despite not living in London. The pdf version of the tables for at least one poll on YouGov’s website (the January poll for ITN) now no longer includes the regional breakdown in the statement of weighting variables which was included when the poll was first posted.”
125 How About “Sex Lives of the Great Fascists”, as a working title? I’m not sure whether to write chapters by country, or by sexual activity.
Latest Rasmussen Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 45% .. Clinton 45%
McCain 46% .. Obama 45%
Clinton 43% .. Obama 47%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Haven’t got time to catch up on whay has been written so sorr if more news of our graciuos hosts fame has already reached thes shores…SKY NEWS BLOG on the battle of the pollsters
…
‘According to Mike Smythson of Politicalbetting.com the Livingstone campaigns complaint is about politics and not the science of polling. He point out that YouGov had the best record predicting the 2004 London Mayoral contest when it was much more of a fledging organisation than it is now.
Mike says: “Every single phone poll that’s ever been held during London mayoral campaigns has massively over-estimated Ken’s vote we didn’t hear complaints from his team then. In 2004 even the online pollster YouGov, in its final poll in 2004, over-estimated Ken’s first preference lead.”
Ken will be calling you out next Mike.
Spellng. ‘OUCH’.
121 - That does not make it right. The danger with a poll on the day an election is taking place is that it will demotivate potential voters - who will think there is no point in voting as their person has already won/lost. Is it any coincidence that as polls become more ubiquitous in this country, voter turnout goes down? Surely newspapers and polling organisations can hold off for just a few days before the real polls open.
@125:
SeanT, could you get Tom Knox to try out each perversion first-hand (snigger) and give them marks out of ten on PBC first?
143 The OUCH was fine but the Spellng !!
@142:
Zing! Smithson kicks Livingstone up the fanny. Tee hee.
Could these be the death throws of City Hall’s Trotskyist regime? I certainly hope so.
Ignoring the dodgy maths Ken is employing and the fact that adjustments to age profiles will barely make a difference, this is unlikley to be read and is akin to a flea trying to alter the course of a rhino.
You Gov and Ipsos Mori (aka Peter Kellner and Bob Worcester) are currently at daggers drawn defending their (very different) polling methods. Only one (or perhaps neither) will emerge with their polling interity intact. Given that You Gov overestimated Ken’s vote in 2004, I would be very nervous at County Hall and have a shredder on standby!
A real litmus test is Betfair - their Ken is dead in the water, odds of 1-2; William Hill, Paddy Power and Stan james all agree - Ken will have achnce to use his retired politician bus pass on May 2nd.
I’m holding a “Bugger off Ken and Good Riddance Party!”.
@140:
I’m still rooting for “Schmutz macht Frei”, Filth will make you free.
140. on content I would stick to “great sex lives of the fascists” rather than “sex lives of the great fascists”.
and do it by positions rather than politics
Many of you already think I’m crazy But I’m going to make a serious predcition here today that Ken Livingstone, not Boris Johnson, will win the Mayoral race on Friday. It will very very interesting to come back here on Friday night and observe all the Boris supporters collective walling. Like it or lump it, Ken’s going to win. Don’t ask me how I know but I do know that for sure.
Jack at 141.
Rasmussen also reports that the gap has closed over the last two days, could be significant and that means Obama is losing ground, and it’s neck and neck, tomorrow Clinton maybe in front. UNLESS his reaction yesterday to Wright turns it back again.
Interesting times.
Presumably Clinton today in front now in Indiana and closing in North Carolina?
Looking forward to my 1st visit to “Tory” London on Sunday. Will anything have changed by then?
144 If tomorrow’s weather in London is anywhere near as wretched as it is today, voter turnout is going to be seriously reduced. The little knots of smokers stood outside buildings today risk keeling over from hypothermia, well before cancer has any chance of claiming them….
148. 2-1 is hardly “dead in the water”! Clinton is more like 5-1 and she is still getting plenty of attention
@153:
Lucifer and his hellish horde will spew into the congestion charge zone and enslave mankind.
151 You know before anyone has cast a vote.. LOL
@151:
I assume you’re Labour’s postal vote coordinator?
156. Sounds a hoot!
154. where i am is not cold but is certainly threatening to be very wet.
my “certain to vote” status is dwindling by the hour, especially as the trip to the polling station will treble my 10 minute walk to work, and i am still wet now from this morning
156 Just your average weekend in London, then - so no change.
New ASU/Cronkite Presidential Poll for Arizona :
McCain 53% .. Clinton 37%
McCain 47% .. Obama 38%
http://ktar.com/?nid=6&sid=822752
140. Are you not taking this entirely seriously? I am! This could be very commercial.
But finding the right format would be vital. You wouldn’t want to exclude gems like that British NF leader you mentioned, who taught his cat to do the Hitler salute.
So you’d not want to restrict it to sex (though the bulk of it would be sexual scuttlebutt). Which is why a title like “Far Right Freakshow” might be good - it includes other outre behavourisms outwith the sexual arena.
Perfect toilet book for Guardianistas. Bring it out in November for Xmas sales. 100,000 copies. Ker-CHING!
The inventor of LSD has taken his final trip - heavenwards….
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7374846.stm
But he was 103, so maybe there is something in it!
151 - How many postal votes for Labour in Tower Hamlets - 3 million?
@163:
If you want some volunteers to help you out with your experimentation, I’m sure I could get a PBC posse together.