“YouGov final poll: Boris by 6%” - PB EXCLUSIVE
April 30th, 2008
Is Boris about to become the next Mayor?
I have just received information from a source who has proved totally reliable in the past about the YouGov poll that will be published in the Evening Standard tomorrow.
This is the final survey of the campaign and according to the information I have been given Boris is leading Ken 44%-36% on first preferences. After second preferences that becomes 53% to 47%.
The same source has given me advance information about other polls in this campaign which have proved to be accurate. If that had not been the case I would not have published this.
If this is authentic, which I think it is, then it has Ken in a slightly better position compared with last Monday’s poll which had the first preference gap at 11%.
The latest betting is here
Mike Smithson
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Its in line with my expectations (I dont have a special source)
Is this what Sir Alex means by ’squeaky bum time’?
well my competition entry is 53 to 47 so I am as good a guide as YG but a lot cheaper
not far from the 52/48 i hypothesised about earlier. Great poll for both organisations. Mori can claim closer. You gov..late swing.. LOL, everyone is happy!.. except Ken of course…
1 you are a special source - shame you only got 7/2 on the tories in 92 but it serves you right for being a RED. Mind you I voted for Kinnock in 87 for some odd reason.
So Mike, what’s your fair value estimate for Boris if you assume your source is accurate as usual? Still 1.3?
Thanks Don! - All hail Don - all hail Don
re 6. I’m just a touch worried that the margin has tightened even if only a by a little bit. My estimate of value on Boris is now 1.27/1.28.
That’s about in line with what I’m expecting. Will be delighted if this turns out to be the case and YouGov completely trash MRUK.
Come on Liverpool! Win on penalties again will be very amusing!
5 haha . lost it all back spread betting on Con in 97. Bought them at £5 a seat at 249. Ooooops
As expected - a last minute move back to Ken, although probably not enough to save him. After today, my own prediction would be: first round - Boris 43%, Ken 37%, Paddick 12%, Others 8% - Boris 52%, Ken 48% on the final round.
It hasn’t been a textbook campaign from either of them. Boris has seemed a bit sloppy, unsure, and weak when it comes to detail, or in getting to grips with some of the more complex aspects of London’s electorate. But the essential job he had to do was to manage and keep together the current Conservative lead in London in the locals, and he’s accomplished that task successfully.
What really did for Ken, OTOH, was the Jasper allegations, because, leaving aside their rights and wrongs, they made his administration look tarnished and gave it a similar ocmplexion to Labour nationally. He could have squeaked home without these allegations. An even deeper problem has been his inability, again like Labour nationally, to craft a distinctive vision for the next term in London. A few simple positice policies that would have distguinshed him from both Boris and Labour nationally could have transformed his position, had he hammered them home for the past few months. However, he’s looked too “establishment”, too close the government, and too willing to resort to negatives. A really hungry Ken could have won this.
Ya!, thanks a lot, Mista Mike.
That’s in line with my expectations after second prefs. are taken into account (I still stick to 52/48%.) I’d predict 39% to 35% for Boris on first prefs.
WRT turnout, I doubt if a highish turnout will benefit Ken, any more than it benefitted Kerry. Even at 50%, the suburbs will still produce a higher turnout than the LCC area. I’d expect a turnout in the low forties.
Bear in mind, also, that this is in part an exit poll, given that perhaps a third of votes will now have been cast, so it should be pretty accurate.
I dont like chelsea but that has to be the most emotional moment in football history!
Well done Boris!!
All he needs to do now is GOTV and he’s home and dry.
Not too worried about the 3% contraction in the 1st preference lead. It’s well within the MoE.
Important thing is, he still has a clear lead with 24hrs to go.
16 Close
There’s people on the pitch - They think it’s all over - it is now
15) And whatever the result ends up being, in the absence of any information to the contrary of a Boris win, Boris’ price is going much lower before the result.
It’s going to be along 48hours (if your source at the print room is right) for us Boris backers.
20 - Maybe, but in the meantime there will be plenty of fun to be had with the council elections. I wonder if undue attention will be paid to the results from a certain shadow unitary.
IF Chelsea win tonight Its Reds v Blue in Moscow.. bet Man Utd hope Gordon won’t show up…
This London Mayoral Betfair market has easily been the “stickiest” market I can ever recall in politicalbetting in terms of reluctance to back the indicated winner.
Punters have consistently been nervous and wary of backing Boris, even when the weight of evidence has pointed towards a strong victory for him.
I think many punters just couldn’t believe he’d actually pull it off.
22 that’s fore sure now its 3-1
3-1 to Chelsea…… Blues beating the Reds……. Is this a portent for tomorrow?
Betfair seems pretty unmoved so far..
Snap
Dont forget the big one 2pm Sun: Blackpool v Watford!
21 Considerable interest. I predict the Conservatives will take both Shadow authorities in Cheshire.
29 - Yes I was thinking that there will be plenty of extrapolation forward to a certain by-election.
12 - Give Boris credit for having found his long-lost comb! That right there could be the racer’s edge.
23) CR - difficult to bet against such an historic political survivor.
12 - Not sure Jasper was Ken’s kiss of death. But agree totally with your last sentence.
Re: Betfair:
I’m up for that chunk of £950 at 1.37, but don’t have the money to put down!!
Crewe 2008 - biggest bye election since the war. (And I’ve been around long enough to know that they dont usually matter a whatsit).
Labour’s lack of respect and haste in calling it won’t help them.
32. Yeah, well, like you say… that’s “history”.
17 re Get-Out-the-Vote, does anyone know how sophisticated & effective (or not) the GOTV operations actually are the various candidates?
16 - I am not so sure that the turnout will be as high as 50% in the suburbs. Being careful what I say, the number of postal votes returned in one of those suburbs was about the same as the local elections, where the poll was only in the low 40s.
35 - which war? Afghanistan or Iraq?
35 - agree with last sentence. Though the dearly departed would be less than shocked.
Things were done different (and occassionally better) in her daddy’s day.
37. The Tory Party may be shit at by-elections, but they are BLOODY good at getting out the vote.
Trust me.
29. Cheshire voting Tory - hardly an outrageous prediction.
Well if YouGov are out in their initial weighting, and remember they have been on a limb compared to the others, then this could be a heck of a lot tighter than appeared. Might MORI / ICM be right …?!
…someone has stuck £5,000 down on Betfair for Boris at 1.4
OT - Just spotted a car parked outside my local Seattle Public Library branch, with Kentucky plates & an Obama bumpersticker.
Sure hope they make it home in time to vote!
41 I’m in City and East and the Tories are the only people who have bothered to canvass door to door round here, in fact I haven’t received as much as a leaflet from anyone else.
35 - What lack of respect? The family said they wanted the election to happen asap. Jeez, why do Conservatives continue to try to make political capital out of this when the family have made their views known?
43 - Evidence, or are you just theorising?
Chelsea 3 Liverpool 2
41 so good at getting out the vote, they keep losing by elections….. Shurely shome mishtake
41
I tramped up and down(in my car)( at the last locals where I live) I mutual aided elsewhere, and I reckon both our local candidates benefited from my door knocking.. Thats where Labour IMHO will fall down, the people on the ground..
Come on the Pool- please do not let the Chleski prevail
Definitely ’squeaky bum’ time now - 3-2 with 3 minutes left.
Everything points to a BoJo victory especially if one looks at fundraising, where the Boris campaign managed to rake in half a million in a week.
Don’t forget this is only a leak. What time will the official release happen?
Blimey - I thought they were saying 8 minutes of added time there - but they’re only subbing Lampard.
47 you are a spanner
Went into Corals tonight and asked the price on the Mayoral.
4/11 seemmed a bit short on Boris to me.
Value has now got to be laying Boris for a small amount.
There will be nervousness at some point over the next 24 hrs so why not take advantage of it.
Technically are the Yougov and Mori polls know within their MOE?
On second prefs Mori puts Ken on 49-55 and Yougov puts him on 44-50. Of course if Boris wins, Yougov will be seen to have got it ‘right’ regardless.
Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. The only cauction I have about all the pollsters is the high level of 1st prefs for the leading candidates. They have dominated the campaign more than previous contests but would be surprised to see them this high. Of course this could effect both candidates equally.
50. That has nothing to do with it.
GOTV means turning out a high % of your supporters, whether they are few, or many - it doesn’t mean converting supporters of other parties, or picking up news ones
41/51 - Could we maybe turn the question to how good the GOTV (on election day) tactic is itself?
Parties seem to put a very high emphasis on it…
I was skeptical at first - but after doing it last year I did seem to speak to a lot of people that would have forgetten that the election was.
Thanks for elucidating your reasoning.
56 Why oh why is internet feed two mins behind, I have just heard Lampard being subbed…
62 - That was to 57
re 55. Generally we’ve been getting first news when the Evening Standard hits the streets - 10.30 to 11am
41,46,51 - have certainly gotten the impression from pb that you Tories have been hitting the streets in numbers.
If it’s not a secret or something, do you guys do poll watching (what we call it in the states) where you check at the polls to see who’s already voted, then badger (via phone usually, but sometimes in person) your IDed supporters who haven’t yet voted?
Arghhh- the excruciating pain- the corrupt capitalist Russian buys his way into the final. Gutted, gutted, gutted
63. Bollocks!
This is a politicalbetting website!
F**king hate football! There’s enough of that sh1te around in the news as it is!
BOORING!! Let’s talk about Thatcher instead
60 CR utter twaddle. getting the vote out means getting more votes than your opponent. getting all your supporters to vote and then losing - how pointless is that.
37 Compared to even 20 years ago, GOTV is far more haphazard and amateurish than it was then. Compared to 40 years ago, we’re light years away.
But, in general, the Tories are better at getting their supporters out to vote than Labour are (as against which, more people identify with Labour, and have done since 1945, than with the Tories). Am I right in thinking in the USA, almost always, more people identify with Democrats than Republicans?
66. Yes. It’s calling “Telling and Knocking Up”.
62 I think you just proved Ave it’s valid point. You are indeed a spanner.
66 - That tactic is used - not sure how widespread it is though. I just get a list of supporters to knock on.
67. And the final is in Russia - hmmmm…
66 - here we call that knocking up - not so sure you would want to use that term. But poll watching to us might suggest a lap dancing club !
“If it’s not a secret or something, do you guys do poll watching (what we call it in the states) where you check at the polls to see who’s already voted, then badger (via phone usually, but sometimes in person) your IDed supporters who haven’t yet voted?”
That’s it, precisely.
69 - GOTV is about getting out your supporters, it is about micro managing differential turnout. It is a very important thing. Plus it can tie down your opponents.
69 - I think your are sematically wrong.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Get_out_the_vote
You have a point though.
58) Yes there will be lots of Nervousness but the Ken backers looking at their red positions will be the most nervous and more on a net basis will cover their bets and/or switch to Boris.
And don’t forget the “late lumpers” “buying money” - there one on Betfair now trying to get £5k matched. Boris is goooing loooower. If you want to back Ken, Back him tomorrow afternoon.
Another GOTV tactic is to just call everyone on the list. Over in the US in the past few cycles, robocalling has really taken off. Campaigns use it for persuasion, but personally think it has more impact as GOTV.
69. No it doesn’t you retard. Look it up.
It means “getting out the vote” of your own declared supporters. Tories regularly achieve a higher % turnout of their own declared/canvassed supporters than Labour do, that’s a big part of the reason why Tories outperform unfiltered opinion polls.
But why am I even wasting my time explaining it to you again?
I’m right - you’re wrong. Accept it before you make yourself look even more of a fool.
Aren’t Tories just naturally inclined to be more likely to vote because of increased engagement with the political process? Not GOTV?
I thought the tories were widely considered to be the worst at campaigning of all the parties? Labour and Lib Dems much better at targeting marginals and so on. Of course Labour are probably worse now, with all the ‘97 talent moved on and the base disillusioned.
71. Liberal MP David Penhaligon caused considerable mirth when he visited the States in 1980 to help the Carter campaign. Apparently the Americans were a bit shocked when told that British parties engaged in “knocking-up” voters on polling day…
Right one team populated by largly by overseas players managed by an overseas manager and with a foreign owner has beaten another team largly populated by overseas players managed by an overseas manager and with a foreign owner. A victory for english football….
This is a huge victory for the english market. The size and spending power of the market means the premiership is sustainable here. This coupled with our all round love and affection for immigrants like Drogba, Torres etc
69 - err, wrong. Every party will tell you that if everyone who says they’re a supporter voted, they’d win. In my ward, around 1000 vote wins; we have 1500-1800 on our side, and I would guess the Tories have the same. GOTV is about getting some of that 500-800 who might not bother to actually turn up. But then I hope that everyone not on my side doesn’t understand GOTV in the way you do
72 TY ‘Ave its’s points are always valid!
Kieran = LOLOLOLOL etc
Robocalling - think we say automated calling, is this not ilegal here. But stand to be corrected.
68- casino- you sad, sad, sad man. Footie is far more important than politics. Just look at how much has been bet on the match tonight against the Mayor election.
Politics UK is followed by sad little people who are very stingey, a bit autistic, rather ugly, a trifle flabby, a bit specky, very spotty, and very poor dress sensey. Sounds familiar.
Massive football result tonight:
Raith Rovers 0 Airdrie 2
69 don’t often say this, but agree with CR on this one. GOTV is a campaign tactic designed specifically to urge your own IDed supporters to the polls.
Alternatively, if you are sure that voters in a particular area are overwhelmingly on your side, you do what’s called a blind pull and try to turn them out without bothering with ID. But this is becoming pretty old school, what with micotargeting and techniques designed to ferret out “wasted votes” (that is, your supporters in areas where the opposition is strong).
89 - is that good news on Mike’s “Brown will stop being PM before Raith get promoted” bet or whatever it was?
Casino Royale people like you are the reason I ceased bothering to be active. An election is about getting the vote out - end period. If you have a commitment from a canvass then you want them out to vote. Ipso facto the one who does that best wins.You can’t have done it best if you lose.
72 - Again, thanks for adding to the debate.
Seriously, what is the point in name-calling? Fair enough getting angry because of you’re politics but this is just juvenile.
And I still haven’t got an answer as to why Labour lack respect by following the wishes of the family.
83 “knocking up on Election day” sounds like great fun . . . provided you have a bus ticket out of town . . .
I am sure sally has perfect dress sense (sensey even)
70. 40 years ago, GOTV meant Labour going round the council estates with loudspeakers and the Tories doing likewise in the ‘bought’ areas.
91 - indeed, it looks like we’ve got 10/1 on anyone but Labour in Crewe & Nantwich now, barring a second-leg comeback or a shock withdrawal of troops from Iraq…
88. Tyson - I’ll have you know I am very good-looking, of slim build, have excellent dress sense and no acne.
I am one hot guy
Arghh the pain. Chelski versus the red scum in the final. Why oh why? The pain, the pain!
I notice two very respected and seasoned and loyalist observers have just posted very gloomy prediction of net LD seat losses tommorrow. Firstly interesting that they think that. secondly interesting that they have done so on apublic site and in there full names. Frank honesty or expectation management?
90 Knocking up withiout knowing who your supporters are, is very rarely done in the UK. I can remember as a child that Labour used to come round with a loud speaker van. But as it was a safe Labour seat, they were hardlty knocking up opposition.
Handing out leaflets at railway and tube stations, seems to be back in vogue though
On the lib dem voice discussion thread sorry !
93 - *your* , it’s getting late. Time for bed, long day tomorrow.
How about reversing the proposition - If you get all your vote out and lose by your definition - do you congratulate yourself on your success?
93 - Strange I can think of council by elections, where Labour said the same, as the by - election was called within days of a Conservative councillor dying.
92. Oh dear! Case of sour grapes!!
Looks like there are FOUR other respected posters who think you’re wrong on this too… but I note you have now tried to CHANGE your original defintion of GOTV to try and look less silly.
John: When. In. Hole. Stop. Digging.
76 Thanks! And is still a practice to give IDed supporters (esp. elderly and other less mobile types) rides to the polls? Think that used to be a major Tory advantage, back in the day.
92 - give it up. you’re wrong. listen to the consensus here. As I said its a sematic point… - Canvass returns ain’t an exact science…
I have done knocking up loads of times, two instances spring to mind as to how effective it can be. First year in a ward we did three half hearted knock-ups and won by about 50. Next year we did a continuous knock-up from midday till close of polls and won by around 300. Now there were probably other factors at play like candidate etc, but in the first election we were defending and in the second election we took a seat.
102. Dear me, they’re very pessimistic.
107 - very much so.
93/103 yes its past your bed time - time for you to have your hot milk and go to bed….
As i said earlier - labour have no respect.
Now stay away tomorrow as there may be some nasty language and you might not like it (sssh dont tell Mike about the language)
112 no inducement for bad language implied or intended
98- casino- OK- yeh right!- fantastic footie game vs bunch of geeky, OCDers on pbCOM who bet tuppence, if anything at all.
On the one side we have good, wholesome beer drinking, high betting lads, on the other spotty, swotty, specky, geeko saddos.
Sadly you are appear to be on the wrong side comrade Casino.
A VERY reliable source tells me that Boris has over 1 million pledges of support and that they have a huge team ready for the dawn raid tomorrow. The team believe they can physically transport 50,000 people to polling stations who have requested transport.
It is hard to see Labour being able to manage this.
92 - If you have a commitment from a canvass then you want them out to vote. Ipso facto the one who does that best wins.
Your logic is flawed. If a minor party fights a ward with the conventional number of electors, gets 300 firm commitments, and converts 80% of that into votes, it won’t help them if one of the three main parties, with 1300 firm commitments, only gets out 900 supporters, at a significantly lower conversion rate.
107 - not these days, they are on postal votes !
114 - I dont refresh the comment page every minute on PB.. honest!
114 you are quite amusing for a leftie
Knocking up is usually done on the basis of of previous visits by party activists , but in my ward we help elderly (immobile) people to go and vote without asking their intention
114. Well.. your wife thought I was fantastic!
100 - Probably just honesty - you know what us LDs are like. I’m quite optimistic of a national anti-lab swing…
120 - the tories are famously kind-hearted like that…
101 - Here in Seattle, we have a lot of precincts that are very heavily Democratic. Some are high turnout, but there are quite a few that where turnout tends to be below average. These are about the only part of the state where the loudspeaker approach (literally or figurtively) is still viable.
BTW, the bulk of the vote in WA State is postal, either because the entire county is all-vote-by-mail (37 out of 39 counties) or because even in the two remaining counties that still have poll voting, absentees dominate the actual electorate.
Which means that voting begins as soon as the ballots are mailed out. From that point forward, every day is effectively Election Day.
What campaigns do, is find out which absentees/postal voter have already returned their ballots. Then they bug their IDed supporters who haven’t sent their ballots back yet. Note that under WA law, ballots are valid provided they are postmarked on or before EDay.
and…. your mother just loves to swallow
123 Is that sarcasm,?? if not , thank you as it happens to be TRUE!,
93 Your right, no more baiting Kieran, Ave it he doesn’t like it.
In regards of the family all to their own how they deal with grief, it is just unprecedented that a By election date is announced before a funeral and Brown is such a calculating cynical operator that I certainly wouldn’t put it past him to pressure a family that was grieving as it might just give him a political advantage.
123 its all about helping the elderly - unlike LABOUR who want them to freeze by putting their taxes, fuel up!
Gordon prefers encouraging the procreation of illegitimate children instead….
Huge Mayoral volumes trading on Betfair. Someone whacking Boris down to 1.33 another laying him back to 1.37 quite something!
not suggesting where 125 is posted to heh Casino at 121.
126 - Yes, it is sarcastic - which does not discount the fact it may be true (aren’t older people more likely to vote tory?…)
YouGiv has it. Not a landslide, but a very comfortable win for Boris. What I’ve been expecting for a couple of weeks now.
125. ..and your daughter thought I was the best she ever had.
Oh god,. the ‘your mother’ jokes remind me so much of the school playground !!
AVE IT CARES ABOUT MISSING COIN COLLECTORS
——————————————
Alert - we havent heard from Mark Senior tonight.
Where is he? I am concerned? Is he out delivering the yellow leaflets or is he polishing his coins?
Come back Mark!
107. Not really practical any more, with political involvement i.e party membership, of all parties, having fallen so much in recent years. It’s much more efficient to arrange a postal vote. Shame really.
130. Can’t find your posts?
No wonder you don’t know where your wife is….Hold on… What’s that Mrs. Tyson?
COMING!!!
124 - In the UK we do not know who has returned their postal ballot papers, as until very recently, they were not recorded as being returned.
In experimental all postal elections, political parties were given lists of those who had voted.
However, with the stup[id new rules on verifying postal votes face down, it would be easy to see who had voted (although not which way), but that would also be ilegal to use that information.
134. Yeah, but they’re fun though!!
I’m *still* not quite sure if Tyson is taking them as a joke though..
These lefties have no sense of humour y’know
131
I visited several old peoples homes. I transported people to the polling booth and back. I never mentioned the candidates. They were grateful for the lift..but beyond that, I wouldn’t stoop to brow beat someone in their 90’s about who to vote for. There are limits you know…
134. I think I’ll just say ‘hamsters and elderberry’ before someone else does.
Didn’t say they were not funny
I can be quite immature at times! Like spending my entire evening watching FAmily Guy rather than finishing my dissertation. oops
Re: rides to the polls to the elderly, think that both sides can be right on this one. That is, older people in certain areas may be inclinded to vote one way or another, depending upon the turf. But at the same time, the very act of providing transport on a “don’t ask, don’t tell” basis naturally creates a certain amount of goodwill. Which can translate into a few votes. Which when margins are close could be decisive.
And all my winnings on betting on a Chelsea-United final go on Boris. I’ll never have been so angry at a Tory losing if he does.
140 - I ain’t doubting the authenticity of your statement - I’m doubting whether you would have done it without the knowledge that older people are more likely to vote tory…?
138 - Very interesting.
Here in King Co, Washington, for every election the county election deptarment posts on their website the individual voter ID #s of every voter who has returned her or his absentee ballot. Which makes matching the returns against your campaign’s list of IDs very easy.
RE:The trasporting of voters
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Wilson_%28Texas_politician%29#Entry_into_politics
“Wilson first entered politics as a teenager by running a campaign against his next-door neighbor, city council incumbent Charles Hazard. When Wilson was thirteen, his dog entered Hazard’s yard. Hazard retaliated by mixing crushed glass into the dog’s food, causing fatal internal bleeding. Being a farmer’s son, Wilson was able to get a driving permit at age 13, which enabled him to drive 96 voters, mainly African-Americans from poor neighborhoods, to the polls. As they left the car, he told each of them that he didn’t want to influence their vote, but that the incumbent Hazard had purposely killed his dog. After Hazard was defeated by a margin of sixteen votes, Wilson went to his house to tell him he shouldn’t poison any more dogs.[3]”
PS - I’m not implying anyone here is lying - I just think it’s a funny anecdote.
143 True, but I personally saw it as a service to those less fortunate than myself. I work for a disabled lady anyway…I hope one day someone will be kind to do it for me , if i survive that long…
Right - Casino is off to bed. Long day tomorrow.
Night all!
Apart from Mrs. Tyson, who’s in my king-sized bed - right now -waiting for me in her Anne Summers outfit with a cheeky smile on her face
greetings from harris where fortunately this b&b has an unsecured wireless network. looking back no-one seems to have commented on Nick P’s grilling by John Humphreys this morning. I thought he did better than Brown
@135:
Mark Senior is hiding. He knows he’s going to get such a debagging and radishing for his shilling for Livingstone in his all-advised Yougov libel that his anus will smell of salad for a fortnight.
COME HITHER, MR SENIORRRRRR…
Hmmm…I’ve been watching this site for a few weeks in the run up to the mayoral, and can’t help thinking it’s become considerably less objective during that time.
There is a surprising proportion of posters who are clearly too close to one or other of the candidates (mostly Boris, but some Kennites also) to provide sensible commentary on whether particular odds represent good or poor value.
There are some prominent offenders, notably Casino Royale, whose shrillness suggest to me considerably more nervousness about their betting positions than they let on. Fine - such posts are fairly transparent.
What bothers me more is a lack of decent analysis from the more restrained posters. Perhaps its because many of you are (probably rightly) heavily backing Boris and are keen to maintain Boris’ momentum. But much of what is currently written on here does not really ring true anywhere outside ConservativeHome.
The rubbishing of YouGov by Livingstone’s campaign is unlikely to be justified - we shall see on Friday. Yet I’m very uneasy about them releasing this poll on the day of the election. It suggests to me at least a possibility that, as a polling organisation, they are being used by the ES to try to influence the result. And on that basis I think most of you are being overly trusting of their findings, especially in light of the discrepancy with Mori and MRUK.
Perhaps the reputation of this site is on the line a bit along with the pollsters?
145 Thats because you are cynical person. Not everyone does everthing with a reason behind it. I certainly did NOT!
Ooops, picked the wrong thread. This was from the previous one:
I’m always amazed by the sheer level of bullying and namecalling that often gets directed towards Labour supporters and various ‘lefties’ on this site, but I am sticking my head above the parapet this one time to say I think you’re all absolutely bloody mad if you’re placing vast sums of money on Boris.
I readily admit he’s the favourite going into tomorrow, but it is by no means signed, sealed and delivered. All the polls, bar YouGov, have Ken ahead or TCTC - and with YouGov BoJo has dropped five points in the space of a few days, a rate that brings him crashing into TCTC should the trajectory continue into tomorrow.
I also think its reasonably certain that with a campaign this high profile, and a choice this divisive, and with the stakes so high for the national parties that it is inconceivable that turnout doesn’t increase by 8, 9, 10 points from 2004.
149 — Bad boy!
96 No, it was a hell of a lot more efficient than that, as both parties had droves of activists, then.
107 These days, hardly anyone requests a lift, as they’ll be signed up to vote by post.
149 GN casino - see you tomorrow
151 LOL
154 - How much hard cash do you have on the outcome?
158 - None, which is the point of my post. It’s insane the amount of money people are reportedly throwing around a race that is essentially too close to call.
146 - Voting in the UK is done very much on trust. You do not need any offical card to vote (although you are sent one). If you say you are mr John Smith of 49 high Street, then the clerk will believe you and give you a ballot paper, so long as john smith of 49 green street is on the register. Clerks are supposed to ask two questions, but they hardly ever do
Why am I still here talking to you fools?
I have to be at a polling station at 7am!
139- casino- I think we have much more in common than you know comrade;
of course I am far more intelligent, quick witted, handsome, cooler, and all the rest, but I take that for granted.
And while I am on top, chipper (apart from the Chelski result), and all the rest, I am off to bed.
Ave it- lefty socialists are a real hoot. ciao
Ah only 23 hours to go! I am ridiculously excited
159 - If you think it’s going to be too close to call you should put your money on Ken as you’d get 2/1. It’s kinda a betting point though…you may not understand?
@162
HOOT HOOT!
149- arghh (162)- I am too slow again. Casino you swine, even tho you are asleep.- you have beaten me well tonight.
159. Thought this was political betting website? Or is it don’t bet won’t bet (but enjoy talking tosh).
164 - I’m a student so I don’t have money to be pissing away at will. I suspect that if I had this magical thing called a disposable income that my parents keep talking about, I might decide to put some money on Ken based on the odds - but I’d still hazard a guess that Boris is slightly more likely to take it.
I certainly wouldn’t put £18,000 down either way, even if I had it.
165 - Get to bed Mr C, If you have to get to a polling station by 7am…
Polls open in 8 hours - you can almost see people queueing up to vote Boris!!!!!!!!!!!
152. An excellent post, Max. I’m particularly missing Peter the Punter’s commentary as he usually calls things pretty good and tends to have a pacifying effect on everyone else (does anyone know where PtP is?).
167 - I’m quite aware of the fact that this is a betting website, thank you very much. I think it was the URL that gave it away.
My point is not that you’re all mad if you’re betting any money on Boris - its that you’re all mad if you’re betting LARGE sums of money on Boris, which some people are reportedly doing.
Clegg coming over quite well on Newsnight just now. Last few appearances I’ve seen of him he appears to be improving.
Its all about the
7777 
tonight on betfair…
It’s a bore that the result of the mayoral isn’t announced til Friday evening, was hoping for a late night election special!
175 - There will still be exit polls, I hope!
A lot of wisdom in 152 and 154 …
FWIW I have stayed out of this market precisely because I think there are big losses to be made and there has been little true value. If you win on Boris good luck to you, but I think there are much safer bets myself to be placed at the moment and I’m a little uneasy about Boris’ position given the vascillatory nature of the polling organisations on the outcome. It’s too uncallable to call. That having been said, for Ken to buck the national mood would be very surprising and it’s that, not YouGov, which would help me to sleep tonight if I had money on Boris winning.
Of course, the real art is to be so active that you are like Mike and win whatever!
Betfair looks pretty right now - someone trying to bet and lay using only number 7. Big money too.
Looking at the market objectively, I don’t think Boris is great value at 2-5 as we’re relying on yougov showing him as ahead. Not saying he won’t win as I desperately he will, but with my betting hat on, I couldn’t get involved.
172 - Frankly it’s their money, if they want to risk it tis up to them. All I have at stake on this election is a possible free lunch!
With respect to the ride issue, years ago I read a very intersting story in the Louisville, Kentucky paper, about a fellow in a very rural & extremely poor county in the mountains of eastern KY.
This gentleman ran his own political operation in his precinct, which covered a fair amount of turf. Unlike some others in an area that was notorious for vote buying, he didn’t resort to that.
Instead, he made it his business to provide a good many free services to local people. For example, he’d go to the store, pick up and deliver groceries for little old ladies with no transportation who lived miles up some remote holler (that is, hollow, a narrow mountain valley). And he always carried jumper cables, chains, battery charger, etc so he could provide roadside assistance. Plus he was always available to bail someone’s no-good brother-in-law out of jail if called upon. And etc, etc.
In return, the only thing he asked was that folks he’d helped out CONSIDER voting for the candidates he recommended. Plus on Election Day he and his helpers would give people rides to the polls.
Not surprisingly, candidates for county, legislative, congressional and statewide office were quite eager to get this fellows endorsement. Or as the local custom was, to get on his slate. Because he printed out cards that told people which candidates he was endorsing for various offices, generally in the primary. Candidates were naturally happy to pay him to put them on his slate - just as candidate are happy to pay political consultants and other hacks.
Again, he never said, “how are you going to vote?” or “you must vote for X”. Instead, he just asked the people he helped out to please consider voting for his candidates.
The result: his nickname in political circles was “The Postman” because he ALWAYS delivered his precinct.
Some very rich person is taking the p*ss on betfair at present who appears to be backing Boris and flooding the market with 3 and 4 figure numbers made up with lots of 7s!
Someone offering
3.9
£1493
on Ken
172-
Why don’t you put £1 on Ken. If he wins you’ve get £3(2+stake) - If it was really 50/50 odds you’d only get back £2(1+stake). Do you see the point yet? Otherwise you have no point.
172. If (when) Boris wins I’ll buy you a pint as long as you don’t bring your mates and their collection of straws!
Feels like the market just processed Smithson’s leak.
4.1 on Ken…
http://sports.betfair.com/?mi=20690681&rfr=400&ex=1
173. yes i thought he did very well. looked flustered and a bit ratty but really stamped his authority on the interview and pivoted to the issues.
184 - I do see the point. I hardly think the fact that I haven’t put a pound on this race disqualifies my opinion though.
That said, I may take your advice tomorrow, after I’ve gone and voted.
92 - The last round of canvassing is always to pledged supporters getting them to turn up to the polls. It’s making sure your base is more solid than the opposition.
188 - to be fair, I may still be bitter about the time, with one of my first posts here, I stated that I had just layed the Cons at the ealing by-election (unfortunately just before a few minor local defections) - Someone patronisingly poster piped up about Value Bets - I unfortunatly did not come back with any sort of “torys will be a poor third - mark my word” line.