politicalbetting.com

Unlike 2000 and 2004 Tory supporters are sticking with their candidate

Every Tuesday for the last month or so YouGov have published the detailed data of their latest London mayoral poll. This fleshes out what’s already been made public and provides more information that can be helpful in forming a view of the race.

And what I have looked first for is the number highlighted above - what proportion of those who identifying themselves as Tories are supporting Boris Johnson. This could be critical because he is not going to win if he is not retaining the Tory vote.

At the 2000 and 2004 mayoral elections there was strong evidence that significant numbers of Tories switched to Ken in the mayoral ballot. If there was a hint that that was happening this time then Johnson could be in trouble.

Well the figure above confirms that Johnson is retaining 87% of the Tory vote - a proportion that has hardly moved since the campaign started. He is also picking up one fifth of those who have at sometime told YouGov that the party they identify with most is Labour.

The Tory vote is significant because traditionally it is more likely to turn out out. In my view Johnson is going to do it and current odds seem very attractive.

In the betting the money has continued to go on Johnson who is now at 1/2.

Mike Smithson

Massive poll leads yet still the nervousness

In the past week and a bit we’ve had surveys from all five firms that do national general election polls and all have reported the same trend - a big shift to the Conservatives. The ComRes 14% lead was the last to come and overnight produced figures that would convert into a near Tory landslide at a general election.

To recap these are the latest ratings from each of the firms:-

Yet just look at the Commons seat spread betting markets above. Even with the polls all saying the same thing punters are still not convinced that we might be heading for a David Cameron majority at the next election.

But could everything change after Thursday elections? Could a Tory win in London and big successes elsewhere transform the political mood? Could now be the moment to get your general election bets on?

What strikes me is that we are in completely uncharted territory. It is now nearly thirty years since the Tories were last threatening to unseat a Labour government and we have no real reference points. In spite of the ratings nobody quite believes that a change of government is possible but could we be nearing the tipping point?

One of the site’s regular contributors, Rod Crosby, always argues that changes of government have never happened without in the preceding years the main opposition party winning seats off the governing party in Westminster by elections. I think that’s right probably right although MPs appear younger and healthier these days and there have not been as many opportunities.

But the next big development in domestic politics will be Labour’s defence of Crewe and Nantwich following the death of Gwyneth Dunwoody. We have not got a date yet but this contest provides the ideal platform for the Tories to capitalise on their likely progress this Thursday.

So for those who play the spread betting commons seat markets now might be the moment to move. Could the price panel above be the last occasion when we see the Tory BUY level being lower than the threshold for an overall majority?

Mike Smithson

The only detail at the moment is from Andrew Grice’s blog at the paper. He writes: “If Gordon Brown was hoping that the row over his decision to abolish the 10p lower rate of income tax would not damage Labour, he’ll be very disappointed by the latest monthly ComRes survey for The Independent. The Tories have doubled their lead since last month from seven to 14 points, the biggest since ComRes began polling for the paper in September 2006.”

That’s the only information that’s available.

The last ComRes poll at the end of March had the Tories on 38%, Labour on 31% with the Lib Dems on 17%.

Mike Smithson

Is YouGov vs Ipsos-MORI the other big battle in the London election?

In the picture above are the men who are probably the best known pollsters in the country who, in their individual ways have made major contributions to the way political opinion is tested in the UK. And both of them are on collision course over the projected outcome of the London Mayoral election.

On the left is Peter Kellner who was a political journalist specialising in polling who then went on to become one of the founders of the YouGov company - for which he is still its public face. On the right is Bob Worcester - the founder of MORI and the man who has probably had most impact of anybody in the industry in a career that in 2009 will will go into its fifth decade.

They are both, incidentally, great company and are absolutely fascinating to listen to.

But for Thursday’s election they are calling it differently. The latest from Kellner’s YouGov has an 11% Boris lead on first preferences - while on Friday Worcester’s MORI had Ken 3% in the lead. Unless there are dramatic changes in their final polls one of them is going to have egg on his cheek.

So which is best? On which company can you most rely on? It’s important to understand that they approach the whole process of testing public opinion from almost totally different standpoints and both of their teams believe passionately that their way is the best way.

The Mori approach is based on telephone or face to face interviews and their samples are weighted to make sure they represent the demographic profile of the country, or in the latest surveys, just London. There is no attempt, as all the other pollsters do, to try to ensure that samples are politically balanced by asking interviewees how they voted last time and weighting accordingly. In recent years the firm has introduced a fierce turnout filter basing its headline numbers only on those saying they are certain to vote.

YouGov operate with its “polling panel” - tens of thousands of individuals on whom it has a mass of data so that it can weight by party identifier and what newspaper, if any, that they read. Everything is done online and those who fill in the questionnaires are paid to do it. A big question is just how representative of voters as a whole their panels are. What we do know from the data that’s made available is that their members appear to be much more likely to vote than the population as a whole.

YouGov has the reputation of being the “magnifier” of trends. In 2004 it was the first to pick up the rise of UKIP ahead of the Euro elections but then went on to over-state them.

In the Mayoral race YouGov has the benefit of doing quite well in 2004. It slightly over-stated Ken’s lead on first preferences but was within one per cent on its final split. No other pollster has carried out London Mayoral polls with the same level of accuracy.

For betting click on the panel below.

Mike Smithson

Well done Don

The first preference shares BORIS 46% (up 2%) and KEN 35% (down 2). After second preference YouGov are saying it is 55% to 45%.

This puts the internet pollster totally out of line with MORI and MRUK which are both reporting that Ken is in the lead.

I cannot recall a time when the polls have been so out of line in a critical election.

The YouGov figures are so emphatic that it is hard to see a Ken victory.

Latest betting is here.

Mike Smithson