Is the key to Mayoral result hidden here?
May 1st, 2008
Was the postal vote battle the real decider?
This table appears in the Evening Standard tonight and shows the number of postal votes issue in all but three of London’s boroughs.
The total is 559,892 and I’ve just been doing some quick calculations to compare the number with a selection of the number of votes cast four years ago. For comparison I took the total first preferences from 2004 for Norris and Livingstone and then expressed this data as a percentage.
In more than half the boroughs the proportion of postal votes issued compared with the Livingstone-Norris total in 2004 was over 50%. In one borough, Hackney it was only a few hundred short of 100% though that is probably due to the all postal vote election there in the last borough contests.
Next in line came Sutton with 75% then Tower Hamlets and Southwark both on 65%. Newham was 64% with Islington on 61%. The other boroughs above 50% were Bexley, Camden, Greenwich, Havering, Kingston, Lambeth, Lewisham, Richmond, Waltham Forest and Wandsworth.
Remember this is not the proportion of the electorate but from the total of Tory and Labour votes in the Mayoral race in 2004.
Voting continues until 10pm and it will be early evening tomorrow before we get the result.
Dealing with tonight’s traffic: The site will shortly go into election night slimmed down mode to limit the demands on the server. Only the two most recent posts will appear though you can click back to get earlier ones. Continuation threads will start at regular intervals. Please switch to the new thread as soon as that happens.
Mike Smithson
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Everyone’s money still on Boris?
So……… what does that mean Mike?
Good for Boris, or bad?
Depends on the number of votes returned, not those issued…
2 - One would assume good
Of course it’s bad for Boris, Casino. It tells you what we already know, that turnout in Boris-loyal communities is on average lower than Ken-loyal ones (who by their very nature have more time on their hands).
For gods sake, if you can cover do. My heartfelt sympathies if you can’t
What point are you making here, Mike. I don’t quite see what you are getting at…
What does it mean? I think it shows where the parties have been putting the effort but, as Cicero notes, it’s all about how many of them were returned. If anybody has got figures or estimates for particular boroughs that would be very helpful
Ken gone to 3.65! First big change in the last 6 hours or so.
5- Er, okay!
Comment from Tony travers in the ES:
“Interestingly, there have been no late polls from other organisations. Few elections in Britain have provided the polling companies with such spine-tingling pressure. While polls are not forecasts of results, it is inevitable there will be a post-mortem on the problems faced by the organisations who have polled opinion in this contest. They cannot all be right.”
Anyone detecting a squeeky botty or two over in Northcliffe House?
Full piece:
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23481558-details/Comment%3A+even+the+weather+could+make+crucial+difference/article.do
I thought this analysis would have been better for Boris than Ken. It isn’t.
Why would you bother going to the hassle of getting a postal vote, and then not return it?
Anyway, 30000 votes in bromley - that’s a suspiciously high and round number isn’t it? If you are going to cheat, at least make it plausible!
12 - most likely approximations
Zimbawe choice. Zanulabour are beyone the pale.
Just bought more of ken at an even better price - i hate to take money off you guys, but i need the money, you see.
From previous thread 405:
“..and a fresh attempt to expose divisions with the Conservatives, party sources said”
How thoroughly depressing. Gordon seems to have spent his whole Prime Ministerial career to date trying to do this, making policy on the basis of how much trouble it will cause for the Conservatives rather than how much good it will do for the country. It has failed so far and I see no reason why it will start working now.
Meanwhile the country continues to go to the dogs
If the boroughs are ranked, should Westminster be 15,197, Barking 15,000 and Haringey 14,187? It’s a very poor table by the Standard.
Total number of postal vote returned in Barnet is 21500 out of 34000, so a 63% turnout, higher than the 2006 local elections.
11. But Iain Dales “sources” are saying the postal votes for Boris are stacking up very nicely in the outer boroughs?
12. From the cutting, the sub-editing would seem to leave somthing to be desired.
Is the 30,000 (and the three others that are exact multiples of 500) guesswork? To get one accurate number like that would be a surprise; to get four would be extraordinary.
Huge sums of money just been put down for/against Boris on Betfair.
Over £10,000 I think…
come on boris. i think he is over the line given todays feedback
20. And I realise there’s a typo in there!
To answer Mike’s main point, no - the key to the result is in the polls for the last four weeks.
21. Now it’s gone!!
Who keeps doing this?
24. Just as a word of warning to readers it looks like someone was posting under existing bloggers names right at the end of the last thread..i.e mine and I think Political Capital… Mike can you check it out…sounds like seriously underhanded ramping..
maybe someone is putting those sums for a short period of time to try to create panic
25 - There needs to be some sort of registration on here, eventually!
One contact of mine with access to exit poll data has indicated to me that things could be a lot closer than initially expected
THIS IS A CASE OF IMPERSONATION
27. I agree, is it possible with this blog format?
28) - Mike is that actually you posting?
30 - If I were him I would have prevented people from posting using the name Mike Smithson! But verification would be nice!
28. But still giving it to Boris, mike?
24. I can assure you that “that” Casino Royale was, in fact, me..
28. Interesting. Reliable source? Which borough?
Or.. are they in a position to assemble exit poll data for the whole of London?
Is that the sound of uncertainty? Finally? Prepare to watch Ken’s price move!!
28. I sthat you Mikle..it seems far to early to be talking about exit polls with many people still coming home from work..
Go to say, if I had money on, I’d be taking everything posted on a public forum with an enormous pinch of salt. (even if not anon, remember the Obama winns Penn exit polls?)
That said, ramping is well out of line.
Mike is someone pretending to be you here? - on the previous thread, me and jh were cloned.
30. Good point.
MIKE - COULD YOU PLEASE CHECK WHO IS POSTING UNDER WHICH NAME?
Marginally to Boris, yes. But maybe the YouGov poll was not so trustworthy after all.
THIS IS A CASE OF IMPERSONATION
+salt seller on standby+
28, I thought the curiosity was that no one was doing any exit polls this time? Hmmm…
I have just calculated my average “in” is 2.73/1. The last trade was awesomely priced. Overall, that is a good result I think in the circumstances. I will now watch the momentum swing. This is the tipping point.
39) Mike - due to the name copies on the previous thread I don’t believe that’s you posting, can you confirm on the POST tself what you are saying please?
THis is Hopi Sen, not Mike Smithson, seeing if he can imitate someone elses name.
Its clearly not Mike or he would have confirmed..my guess its this dickhead dolphins cloning all/some of us…
Casino, shall we say Marble Arch at noon? That will give me some time for me to get up after Friday’s celebrations.
aand apparently I can…
if we’ve learnt anything from the american elections, its not to trust leaked exit poll data
starting to worry now … maybe I should lay off think this will be close
THIS APPEARS TO BE A CASE OF IMPERSONATION
this is really me though..
We are under attack!
what’s going on…few mins ago BIG money trying to get on Boris, now BIG money trying to lay Boris or back Ken??!!
Gentlemen. I’m afraid we’re not going to be able to believe anything posted on here until this is sorted out
Looks like we’re gonna need to register, oh well it had to come some time I spose.
*sigh*
No panic, please! All someone has to do is e-mail Mike.
I feel the cold sound of paralysis
43. I agree. I don’t think Mike would say that.
I’m annoyed, because I arbed on Livingstone on the back of that information from “Mike”. Someone is very nervous about their positions.
ALL PUNTERS BEWARE: THERE ARE TROLLS OUT HERE TONIGHT TRYING TO IMITATE REGULAR POSTERS
Basically don’t trust anything anyone says!
Mike will update the post if important info arises, take everything else with a huge load of salt.
Didn’t Mike restrict the thread to known / registered posters only during one of the American primary nights? Would it be possible to do the same again?
59) He did.
46. Go f**k yourself.
Little d*ckhead trolls like you are imitating regular posters and costing ME money.
This is a serious betting site. Piss off.
money talks. follow the money.
would be VERY worried if I’d backed Boris at a short price.
If you can’t lay off on betfair try and get on with the bookies
THIS APPEARS TO BE A CASE OF IMPERSONATION
Has imitation like this happened before?
ken momentarily went up to 3.75
back at 3.6 now. Is probably a good price to get him on atm, I can’t see him being better value until people leak exit polls and it could always go the other way.
PS - Impersonation is a criminal offence is it not? Whoever’s messing around pretending to be Mike, JH or Political Capital could be laying themselves open to serious trouble.
If it is a regular doing it then they should beware. As far as I know Mike should be able to trace who was doing the posting by looking at IP addresses and I suspect that if someone is playing fast and lose then they will no longer be welcome.
I don’t bet so thankfully am only an interested observer but posters need to remember this is not just another political discussion site. People are staking serious money on what is said here and screwing around with them goes way beyond the normal political fun and games
62 stop it
As a financial trader you sometimes see someone trying to spook people out of their postions to their advantage. It is sometimes know as ‘running the stops’ as in stop loss. When looking at BF watch too see if the Matched sum changes much, if not, then someone is trying to flush out weak positions.
The only figure you should pay attention to is the Hi/Lo price of the session the rest is just BS.
I just clicked on the Mike Smithson sig to comment 47 and got straight to Hopi Sen’s website. Stupid ****.
I will look into this. btw this IS me and the post above about the exit polls was made by ME.
THIS IS A LIE - MS
******
EVERYONE PLEASE IGNORE ANY NEW POSTERS, OR ANY “REGULAR” POSTERS WHO POSTS ANYTHING OUT OF CHARACTER OR WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
THIS BLOG IS FULL OF PEOPLE TRYING TO TALK UP LIVINGSTONE AND AFFECT THE MARKETS
******
**To prove I’m Casino, I’m regularly rude to Tyson and I called Nick Palmer a traitor around 2 months ago - and I find Martin Coxall and SeanT very funny
casino, i can assure you that this imitation has nothing to do with me. but the price is too long - reading this board makes it sound like it’s a done deal. it’s not.
Yes if it’s a regular then he should be able to check the IP’s. Just make a note of all suspect troll posts and see if all the IP’s match.
my IP address can be checked if necessary by Mike
Gentlemen, there are pirates on the board.
The original article was an ES article written as a pro-boris article. I would imagine that’s what Mike means.
Andrew Gilligan and Angela Barnes
“A borough-by-borough breakdown of postal vote applications suggests that Conservative and Lib-Dem areas of London are keener to take part in the election than those supporting Labour’s Ken Livingstone”
he beat me to it
69
You misread the posts. Hopi Sen was not trying to pretend to be someone else. In the previous post they were showing that it was possible so as to warn everyone. Look at 44. They were not the original poster but were trying to help by showing there was a problem.
I’m not a pirate but I agree with 72.
If Mike’s right about it being extremely close then get some more money on Ken asap!
The exit polls are slowly being leaked and they all point to one conclusion … KEN HAS A SERIOUS CHANCE TODAY
THIS APPEARS TO BE A CASE OF IMPERSONATION
78) The real Mike hasn’t posted.
79) What exit polls are they?
Ken coming in a bit now…
80. Where is Mike? Is he not monitoring this?
I think the only way to clear this up is if mike makes an edit to the main post as comments like 70. simply can’t be believed
Am no betting whizz, but I think someone backing Ken is to taking time out to change their pampers.
84. Agreed. I’m off this thread now until that happens.
All this b*llocks is pissing me off. And I’m very cross about it.
Well done Political Capital for spotting it.
70. 28. But surely you would need the equivalent data from 2004 to make a comparison? The demographics of people who vote at different times in the day vary.
Wonder if Ken will go fav at some stage tonight…someone really seems to know something.
THIS APPEARS TO BE A CASE OF IMPERSONATION
Ken fluctuating up and down rather erratically. Not looking too good for Boris, hopefully he can scrape through
84 - Agree, especially as Mike is highly regarded and has a reputation to protect.
88. I do doubt that
How can 1/2 on for Boris not look too good
Ignore 87. then, if 70. isn’t genuine either.
I hope this pirate thing isn’t going to be something common in the future.
agree that there seems to be some impersonation happening here!
But there is something in this. Now is around the time we would expect insiders to hit the market and someone definitely seems to know something! And something which would not make Boris very happy!
THIS APPEARS TO BE A CASE OF IMPERSONATION
“Only the two most recent posts will appear”
Mike - don’t you mean the two most recent threads?
I agree that PB.com has a reputation to protect so i too am not posting until further notice.
casino, you still have to come to the zoo with me if you lose though.
Really? Boris is back in to 1.39/1.4, which is the modal price of the last week or so.
All this gibberish, yet the price on Boris hasn’t moved an inch today, and Ladbrokes is still 1.33. Clearly nobody knows anything, or they’d be piling in.
95. Ignore doppelganger
69/77. Exactly so. I deliberately put the link in for the avoidance of doubt. It’s clearly possible to imitate our esteemed host on this board. I uspect someone’s trying to make some easy money.
btw, Richard thank you for concealing your confusion about my gender so elegantly and politiely, I can confirm I’m male though!
95 - Surely pro-Ken ramping indicates things are going fine for Boris?
Comment 70 was not written by me.
47,77, apologies. Put it down to nerves.
95) rod crosby - what’ happening is that the feebanck is GOOD for Boris. The rampers are trying to say the opposite in order to back Boris - that’s why the fluctuations are so rapid.
There are no exit pollsters operating in Barnet. Just rang the elections office to check and they said no one had sort their permission, as they normally do.
I really wish Mike would clear this up..I feel so used and abused…seriously though there is real money at stake which is not doing the sites reputation any good.
12. There are actually four suspiciously round numbers: Bromley, Enfield, Hillingdon and Barking. If those numbers were the actual number, it would definitely be highly, highly unusual (and extraordinarily statistically unlikely). But it’s much more likely that those are simply estimates of the number of postal votes rather than actual numbers.
77. No problem- I’m off now. I just heard thunder crack over Westminster. Downpours imminent?
The site’s in trouble, Mike. Is there any way you can ensure that a name cannot be re-used unless the e-mail matches that provided previously?
107: like someone else said, follow the money. No movement, with such low amounts on betfair = no info.
102. Not necessarily - this impersonation is not about politics - it’s about money and the market. It doesn’t matter which way you move the market, if you can be sure that it will move back the opposite way. You make the money on the movement back, not the end result.
This is an attempt to obtain property by deception. If the criminals can be traced, the police should be informed.
Has anyone established whether the London Mayoral election is being exit polled?
112 - in my experience (on the betfair forum during sports events) most ramping occurs when the outcome is slipping away from whatever the ramper has backed i.e. they are mostly trying to retrieve a bad position rather than create a new one.
You get lots of stupid “GOAL!!!” posts in the final few minutes of a drawn soccer match, for instance, especially where the ramper knows other punters might not have pictures available.
That’s not to say that rampers can’t operate in the way you have described.
Is it one more hour and a bit to go before polls close?
No, 10pm.
I think all the problems might be slightly my fault as I - albeit unwittingly - started posting using another’s username, and possibly showed other people it could be done. Sorry if that’s the case.
The markets seemed to have moved relatively little over the course of the day, so I suspect the rampers will soon get bored when they realise they’re having no effect.
New thread - Site announcement
This thread is no closed.
I just covered my position; leaving me (only!) 400 CAD$ in case Boris wins. It sucks.
118-Not at all your fault!!
118. to be fair, better this problem is known about now and dealt with before someone loses a lot of money
This is all rather weird. I’ve just checked the last thread and no-one has posted anything under my name.
So postal votes are higher in tory and Lib Dem areas? Wouldn’t we all have been shocked if turnout was predicted highest in Labour areas? I think this is just the Standard trying to put a pro-Boris article out. After the shenanigans of recent years it’s not surprising there aren’t more people in the inner cities taking up the postal vote. I believe less than half of British Asians trust it? I haven’t heard anything today which suggests to me the prices should be altering.
Market now stabilising, odds lengthening on Ken.
Sorry if this is old, i’ve been busy most of today. Times.
Early projections put voter turnout as touching the 50 per cent mark - far higher than the 37 per cent and 35 per cent turnouts in 2004 and 2000 - amid indications that the closeness of the conflict between two of British politics’ most colourful characters has caught the public’s imagination.
A key indication of the high turnout came at a polling station in Streatham, south London, where 85 people were reported to have voted by 9.15am, out of 1,970 in total. If traditional voting patterns were repeated during the day this would give a final poll of just under 50 per cent.
125 ….And the weather has been kinder than predicted, EDW.
(Btw, this is really me and not somebody else.)
(Nor am I Spartacus.)