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128.Tangent.
Will those results be announced tonight or early Friday morning.
The London council by elections that is
Thank-you.
Update from my ’spy’ in Barnet: over the last few hours it’s been ‘non stop’. (Not that interesting, but at least makes me feel I’ve something to contribute!)
I don’t get this thread and missed the whole impersonation thing. Could someone explain why Ken’s chances (presumably according to Betfair prices) increased 6% in the afternoon and whether this had anything to do with the dodgy posts on here earlier on?
The dodgy posts were later than 3pm I believe !
I think mainly nerves contributed to this modest rise..
174 - Entirely possible - he’s spoken of the working-class Tory background of his parents before, and the YCs in the early 1960s were as much social as political.
178 - These should be counted overnight. They may come in a bit later than normal, though.
re 5: the answer is ‘yes’ but we must wait awhile for the true story to be told. See previous thread for some details.
Hi,just checking I am still persona gratis around here
What Obama wishes he could say about Clinton:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10010.html
I’ve got to say the money and liquidity on the betfair market is pretty small fry.
Someone backing Ken with a couple of grand could bring Ken’s odds right down.
Come on Fiorentina- I need some breaks this week
re the LD candidate in Crewe - it is a condition of selection as a LibDem PPC that you stand down in the event of a by-election.
Then the local party would hold a selection contest for the by-election I understood in the usual manner, though he may not have been allowed to proceed to that.
If so I can understand why he is cross.
Evening all
Just got back from my day’s telling and knocking-up in south London. Haven’t voted yet in the wilds of Newham but it will be a nice stroll across the road for Mrs Stodge in a few minutes.
Thoughts; - busy but not GE busy. There’s no doubt the Conservative vote is solid and coming out. The LD vote has firmed since 2006 in the areas (Sutton, Bromley) I was working but the Tories will win big majorities and the two GLA seats look pretty secure.
Predictions on seats - in all elections there’s something for everyone. It’s just a question of how hard you have to look for it.
I don’t share Mark’s optimism on the LD performance - we will take some hits from the Conservatives in the south though I think gains off Labour in the north will compensate to some degree.
My view on numbers: CON +250 LAB -200 LD -50 (plus or minus 30 all round). Vote share - CON 42%, LD 25%, LAB 25%.
Plenty for the Conservative activists on here to crow about in the next 36 hours and that’s fair enough. Having to defend these gains in 2012 might be less enjoyable.
10 come on you teddy bears!
repost;
Hi Mike.
On the thread;
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/01/pbs-yougov-figures-are-confirmed/
Post 432 was not me as you indicate.
I was not impersonated again as I spotted it and tried to alert others, particularly as I spotted your impersonation and the
damage that could do. Hope I saved some of you chaps some £.
Sorry Casino and Phillipe.
Mike - was post 11) not an impersonation of you then?
“I thought this analysis would have been better for Boris than Ken. It isn’t. by Mike Smithson May 1st, 2008 at 6:10 pm”
12 - Wonder if BBC will still say its a bad night for the Tories if they end up 200+!
12
With a new young leader and an unpopular government why, according to your forecast,would the Lib Dems do so badly?
Surely would have been the same result if Ming had still been leader?
evening stodge,
and if our paths do not cross again in the next 24 hours, good night, good morning, and good afternoon old chap.
17. The Lib Dems are working off a high base - these seats were mainly last fought in 2004, when the Iraq War debates were much more current than they are now.
Ken now 3.5/1 - looks like my head on the block prophecy in the previous thread is proving correct!
12 Then they should have kept him happy by offering something a party position a crack at something else etc. To block him from even going forward after the hassle of getting picked first time, well they should have known. Dumb, dumb dumb, dumb.
19. I’ve just finished for the day, and will sit back with a bottle of red wine to enjoy the results. *Anecdotally* it looks good for the London Conservatives.
I’m told that in Tower Hamlets, one council officer was frogmarched out of a polling station for telling Bangladeshi voters in Bengali that they must vote for Livingstone.
Re: 17 - Hardly rocket science, John. The Conservatives have successfully mobilised the anti-Government vote at this time. The LDs only hold about 65-70% of their seats and have to compensate for this by gaining more. There will be gains from Labour but net losses to the Conservatives.
This has nothing to do with Nick Clegg directly. As with Steel, Ashdown and Kennedy, he is in for the long haul and that doesn’t even mean the next GE. Sniping from opposition activists cuts no ice with me or any serious LD just as the Tories will doubtless rally round when the Cameron Government runs into trouble (as it will).
How mant Tories on here can’t wait for the witching hour tonight, so they can refer to Ken, not as Leavingsoon, but as Leavingtoday?
Yes!!!!
21
If that’s what’s done in public in Tower Hamlets imagine the scale of the fraud with postal votes,meanwhile the government sits back and does nothing,I wonder why?
Re: 21 - Enjoy your evening, Sean. I suspect you’ll have a lot to look forward to and I suspect after some of the election nights in the mid-90s this will be much more agreeable.
Turnout for me is the key - I’m looking to see IF London’s turnout approaches 50% (I suspect it won’t).
Rangers are being pummelled but still 0-0
i hope this works, first post on my mobile.
Has ken shortened from 4.3 to 3.5 in the last hour? Is something happening?
I finally found the polling station! Looked quite busy here in cardiff.
Peter From Putney - Surely “The Murdoch Theory” in action!
23 hurrah!
22. Speaking of frogmarching the Standard was claiming Boris has security on stand by to have Ken’s people escorted from City Hall as soon as results are announced to prevent any scenes reminiscent of Stasi HQ circa 1989. Is this a fact or Standard spin
O/T- McCain is looking like he is going to catch Obama on betfair, and Clinton’s price is falling faster than a whores drawers. And unlike this trivial London mayor thing, there is big dosh going on this market.
Must be value on Obama- one thing for sure McCain has as much chance as the next POTUS as I have
Ken is at 4.5-4.8 on betfair
27) Latest Betfair Prices;
Boris Johnson 1.26 (£423) 1.29 (£10)
Ken Livingstone 4.4 ( £74) 4.6 (£6)
Brian Paddick 240.0 (£9) 760.0 (£3)
Any Other Candidate 700.0 (£5) 990.0 (£4)
ARSE exit poll 30 minutes and counting ……
20… Although I am talking my own book here having backed Ken, I think if Boris was such a certainty people would be queuing up to lay Ken at 4.8/ back Boris at 1.26 for more than fifty quid or so… this really is a quiet betting heat at the moment will it hot up as polling time ends do you think?
24. Yes but why aren’t the opposition parties kicking up more of a fuss?
All the noise is coming from judges and the electoral commision at the moment.
21 - your agenda in passing that on - when you have no reason to believe it’s true other than prejudice - couldn’t be clearer, Mr Fear!
I heard that a shotgun-wielding farmer from outside the M25 was marched out of a polling station in Holborn for threatening to shoot council tenants if they attempted to enter
re 25. But for my family fortunes turnout needs to be above 43% and for Boris to win.
13 - “Plenty for the Conservative activists on here to crow about in the next 36 hours and that’s fair enough. Having to defend these gains in 2012 might be less enjoyable.”
Stodge speaks the truth. As usual.
So, when does the crowing start?
27- Benny- the lack of liquidity will make these kind of fluctuations probable. No other explanation
27 Eh????
24 - I dunno. Maybe the government doesn’t do anything about this incident - which we don’t even know happened - because it’s probably just a fiction cooked up by right wingers with xenophobic agendas.
40… someone posted Ken 3.5/1, which may have been misread as into 3.5 from 4.8 maybe?
36 The person who told me is one of PBC’s most eminent contributors, so it is 100% true.
37- Mike Smithson- I heard Pontins do some good special deals if you are scratching around for a few bob after tonights unfolding
re 34. Yes - the betting is very quiet. Nobody really knows anything.
I’ve followed a very strict rule today and have not placed any bets. Almost all my big losing bets have been made on the day itself. I get excited, read things wrongly and make mistakes.
On May 5th 2005 I lost a shed load of money buying Lib Dem seats on the spread markets at the 68 level.
28,29 Too bloody true, after 8 long years.
43 - I’d certainly trust that contributor in question more than most posters here, and the story could easily be traced back to him if untrue.
22
‘Sniping from opposition activists cuts no ice with me……’
I’m no activist,a Tory Voter yes,but no need to get so defensive.
You do seem to contradict yourself when you say this has nothing to do with Clegg directly,so presumably last year’s poor results had nothing to do with Ming?
Turnout slow here in rural Flintshire.
Does this count as the most tedious & obvious post of the day?
Wishing I was in London… not even at a count tonight. Just me and the telly.
Can we have some predictions from punters ion here covering?
London mayor
London Assembly
Councils (gains & losses)
I notice Mark Senior has stuck his neck out on the councils already.
I have to say that I have a feeling Labour wont hit 200 loses in the councils. I know some think its possible but thats a big big loss.
As for the Assembly I still have thsi fascination about the BNP gaining a seat or not. I’d be interested in ounting for no on Betfair but its difficuult.
London Mayor? Tighter than some think. I think it will be quite a coup of Boris makes it because its a difficult task.
45- Mike- betting with the heart rather than the head.
I think the London markets have been ramped slightly by over excited Tories drooling at the prospect of Boris.
O/T How can one team take such a lickin, yet keep on tickin? The Gers against Fiorentina
I think those following the results tonight will probably find them very slow on all media. Ths is because they tend to wait until all wards are in before announcing a council ‘result’. A few may be early, like Bury, but overall scores of party gains and losses will not become apparent until tomorrow.
I shall be waiting for the BBC projection of a national vote share, which will be done from a few hundred key wards, probably by John Curtice. They’ll try to get this by about 1, I should think (I helped John with this in the early 1980s). It will be interesting to see if the Tories can get to 40%, and whether Labour slip below 26-27%. The Lib Dems will, as always, run about 6-8% ahead of their poll standings; could Labour slip to third this time?
The projection is usually very helpful, as it irons out impressions given by when the seat were last fought. It will of course not include anything from London or Scotland; and none of this tells us anything much about the next general election, of course.
24. Labour does nothing without a political motive. Therefore their tolerance of fraud means that they believe they benefit from it.
Politicshome, RH column, new feature up on (inter alia) press coverage today of the Mayoral election, in col inches. The Guardian ran 12 inches, the least coverage among all the major nationals. (That in itself tells a sort of story.) Telegraph 16 inches, Mirror 19, Mail 22, Sun 26, Indy 31, TImes 32. The new column will be live-running results in all the local elections. Useful. I wonder whether they will be faster than the Beeb and Sky?
54. Come on the Teddy Bears
Am I trusted?? Yes..!
22 Nothing would surprise me about the Tower Hamlets Labour party it’s a mares’ nest http://www.eastlondonadvertiser.co.uk/content/towerhamlets/advertiser/news/story.aspx?brand=ELAOnline&category=news&tBrand=northlondon24&tCategory=newsela&itemid=WeED29%20Apr%202008%2013%3A58%3A57%3A477
BTW if the Tories don’t do well it won’t be for lack of trying, I mentioned before they were the only people to canvass and today I voted at the crack of dawn because I had to be out of London for the day, I got back to a last minute ‘don’t forget to vote leaflet’ and have just had a visit to check I’ve voted.
ARSE exit poll 15 minutes and counting ….
12, 21. The problem with the Lib Dems is that there is hardly any party patronage to dispense in this kind of situation. For instance, the Tories would probably be able to dangle a plum county council seat or a position on a European election list in front of a candidate in this position; but the Lib Dems have few safe seats, and all party offices and candidacies are voted for. Even the order in which future life peers are appointed is subject to membership ballot.
That said, Elizabeth Shenton looks like a good candidate. Let’s hope she turns out to be a Sarah Teather rather than a Rosie Barnes!
Rangers haven’t had a shot yet. I bet they win though! Fiorentina have murdered them but cant score. They will get nervous soon.
58-Why are they called the Teddy Bears?
My final Samplemiser prediction for the first preferences FWIW is that Boris Johnson will (unfortunatly) win by 8.15 (though I don’t know about the second preferences).
http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/05/01/final-prediction-johnson-leads-by-815/
Mike. Just my ignorance- don’t understand your graph - % of what?
66 - Chance of winning (derived from odds)
[13] [52] Still up in the air on London- the naughtiness on Pb.com reflecting something funny aross the board.
As far as councils are concerned, I think the Lib Dems might have a small net loss of councillors but still make 3-4 gains of councils.
66) % probability of winning as indicated by betting prices.
64. Rhyming slang isnt it?
Watch that kid Davis, if he can keep his energy he can make a winning situation.
He’s also one of ours….
52 Yokel, confining myself to London, I can’t agree with you. In the PB comp, my prediction was for Boris to win by 5.5%, now I feel it will be more.
6- % chance of winning- so went from 25% to 32%, and now down to 23%.
Means therefore at last count Ken 23% chance of winning, Bozza 77%.
64- Yokel- for the life of me (and I am no poet mind) but cannot get Rangers to rhyme with Teddy Bear.
Gers ryhmes with Bears if you say it like Michael Martin.
Magnificent display of defending - I predict a late goal against tho
71. I have always found myself ina quandry about teh mayoral election. I can understand why Boris is favourite but…
I feel that London, at heart, is a more Labour than Tory city thus Boris starts at a disadvantage.
The other one is that I wondered if Boris would suffer somewhat from the final ballot marking moment when some would think ‘ I like him, but Mayor?’
Thsu I think he might find it tighter than the polls suggest though I fully acknowledge and am pleased in fact that he could win it.
Oh Great, Davis off….
Boris now 1/4 on Betfair.
75.
I consider Inner London to be a Labour city. As for outer London, a strong Tory performance should help Ken and end inner city electoral and poltical dominance of Greater London.
74- duhh! of course- gers, bears- eureka. Thanks Flash.
Come on Fiorentina
(my god the Teddies nearly stole it)
73…Gers….
Ken traded at 5.8. Nearly there now.
ARSE exit poll 5 minutes and counting ….
76- Peter- so was Rutelli in Rome right up to the death. I Know because I got burnt thinking it was better than interest in the bank.
Just voted in West Norwood at 9:15.
The polling officer told me she had dispensed almost exactly 600 votes out of 2000 on the list.
What I don’t know is how many have voted by post - from the Standard figures today I would guess about 7%. If that is the case it looks like the turnout in this very typical, median London ward will struggle to hit 40%. I predict (with the outer suburbs compensating a t/o of 43% making the Billy Hill bet at 7/4 for 43%+yesterday now worth evens
If that is the case .. it’s curtains for Ken
I can’t wait for this ARSE exit poll. Highlight of my day.
He’s 1/5 now, KL at 5
In a Glasgow accent, it is teddy berrs, so it rhymes with ‘gers. Mind you, Celtic supporters have other names for them …
Observation (comparing 2 ‘featured markets’ headers on Betfair)
In the last 2 1/2 hours £34,000 has been matched on the Mayoral winner market. At the same time £4.9 million has been matched on the tedious UEFA Cup semi final
Boris now 1/5 - I tell you someone always knows…..!
cmon Jack, get your ARSE out!
Oops - KL 4
Come on Jack, do your worst!
80. How far do you see it drifting? I need about 6.5 before I jump in and cover my BoJo jitters.
Good evening one and all.
88. Who is it laying these bets on? Would it be party activists that get an idea of whats happening on the ground?
Rangers- heroic, my arse. 5 years ago Fiorentina were plunged into a semi professional league after some dodgey dealings.
Look where they are now. That is heroic.
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of the ARSE exit poll for the London Mayor
PISSED with added SOAMES weighting shows :
BORIS JOHNSON 56% .. KEN LIVINGSTONE 44%
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN …… ..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED …Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
Rob- Thanks.
95. I hope you’ve arranged syndication rights with the BBC Jack!
95 So that’s why Betfair’s been moving…
95 Crikey - I’m lost for words!
95 - It’s all over now
81- never have I been so excited at the prospect of seeing Jack’s arse.
My hands are trembling
Am not trying to influence the markets, but after making some rubbish bets recently, I laid off my £100 on boris this morning. wish I’d stayed in now. oh well.
95- f*ck me.
Forget the prozac can someone give me a gun to shoot myself.
95 if you’re right then Peter Kellner will be opening the bubbly (as will I)
and perhaps offering a glass to his QC
I’m not so certain though….
95 - A few hours ago I posted on my blog a second round figure identical to that…
[95] If it turns out like that then Gordon is going to need a whole lot more than a relaunch… Suggests absolutely appalling numbers for Labour across the country.
Where is everyone tonight, I thought PB would be really buzzing?
107. I reckon its because te mayor count is tomorrow.
COME ON THE GERS !!
[107] Count tomorrow PfP- most of the pols will be in the pub…
107 just waiting with baited breath
105 James. I hope you’re not infering any unauthorised leak for my ARSE. Andrea has handled it with the utmost discretion !!
Ken now 4.6/1 - he’s lost.
111 - No just that my guess seems to align with it.
95- JackW- that post must be the bets tip in pbCOM history.
Not bad for someone who has risen from death twice.
Your prize for pbCOMer of the year is in the bag if that is true.
106. Not necessarily. There are plenty of councils within Labour’s grasp - Coventry, Liverpool and Swansea to name but three - and in the northern metro boroughs Labour’s vote has recovered a bit from the nadir of 2004.
I thought Labour was scuppered last year, but the party was strangely resilient. As a Lib Dem I hope we manage to push Labour into third place, but I’d be pleasantly surprised if that did turn out to be the case. There is frustration at Brown’s government, but the anger is patchy and unless the 10p change has really hit the core vote hard I think Labour will be in the -100s rather than in meltdown territory.
109 But it’s not just about London (although it is for me).
Trouble is being a Bank Holiday weekend we won’t be able to tell if Zoe Williams, Bonnie Greer, Will Self et al are packing the car to seek refuge in some northern city or just going to the country cottage for the weekend.
107
BBC2 are repeating a great programme on medieval sacred music.
Do we expect any exit polls?
Ken now 5/1 and the polls haven’t yet closed.
119 - Don’t ask Mike!
[95] I’ve been saying for days that Boris will lead by 13& on first preferences and second prefs will only move that +/- 1%.
To have this confirmed by Jack’s ARSE is a greater honour than I can really take in…
That’s a total blowout if confirmed.
It could be a disaster for Labour since this was supposed to be the close race.
Wonder if I can use kicked in the ballots as a hackneyed headline later if I’m given any election coverage to do.
111- JackW- please- the image of your saggy, leaky, old boys arse has just come into my head as I am trying to finish off my pot noodle
That’s it. I’m done.Time for a stiff drink. No more campaigning, knocking up.If the buggers haven’t voted for me then that’s that.
iF Boris does win by a wide margin, what will it mean for the locals, or are they separate issues??
Quell surpris…….
More Krug butler !
125 - Good luck with the results! Whatever your affiliation
126 - I think they are separate, but if London is not close then the rest of the country will probably be Gordon’s worst nightmare.
It’s moving fast:
Boris 1.17
Ken 6.4
Anyone know where the 1st result will come from. Its usually Torbay in GE or somewhere else up north.
123. I’d agree if that margin is correct that is a thumping defeat.
I suspect the Supersoaraway Sun will be loving the demise of Ken
Before I publish the results of my tallying, here is some background information to help people to interpret it and extrapolate / guess / predict from it. The key point to bear in mind is that it is only the postal votes from Croydon, and not from Croydon & Sutton constituency. Therefore it will be necessary to make adjustments by looking at previous election results, particularly bearing in mind the different levels of support for Labour and the Lib Dems in the two boroughs:
http://i31.tinypic.com/2u4suop.jpg
And here is some more background information so that people can extrapolate from Croydon to London as a whole:
http://i31.tinypic.com/2uotf69.jpg
124. What do you mean by the ARSE sagging? Do you mean the sampling understates Livingstone?
What are people hearing? Any reason for Boris’ crash?
128- very sporting of you Rob D.
A bit of a spring in your step mind after seeing Jack’s ARSE.
Ken is drifting like the Marie Celeste right now
95 - Oh do tell more Jack!
130 What does 1.17 mean in tems of laymans odds ie in fractions?
136 - Not really, but when a fellow PBer is up for election I’ll always wish them well
139: 1/5.8
Ladbrokes stopped?
If the gap is as wide as Jack W’s ARSE suggests, Labour are going to be under huge pressure. Crewe & Nantwich would be a cakewalk for the Tories, and Gordon Brown’s authority will be subterranean.
This could be a critical month in British politics, and set the frame for the result of the next election. If Labour MPs panic, it’s all over.
133, which did u count, assume it was the yellows as they are easier to see through from the back, now that the bloody things are face down.
142) Ladbrokes suspended.
135- political capital- Jack’s arse (95) is a slight giveaway.
Jack is no ramper.
Bleeding heckers I am gutted
How does one convert to fractions , I cannot immediately see the connection
Outer London’s determination to get rid of Livingstone was missed by every single pollster (possibly other the YouGov though I sense they ‘got lucky’ for the wrong reason)
You need to live here to understand.
Ladbrokes have called it a day.
Bet £1 get .17 p profit….
Minus Betfair’s commission of course.
Evening everyone - after some early morning deliveries, and jumping on a train to the other end of the country and back, I’ve made it home in time to vote and looking forward to an evening of quality coverage here - pb.c is the place to be on election nights.
Hard to say how things are going here in MK…council will surely be NOC at the end of counting, but Lib Dems have work to do to remain largest party. All the evidence is pointing, New Hampshire styleee, that Boris is locked in for Mayor. I expect him to make it, but was still shocked to see the extent of the gap in Jack’s ARSE; Gordon could not talk his way out of that kind of thrashing easily.
Finally, sorry to read about the impersonation earlier - and I would also support measures to prevent this, even if some registration was required. For now though, how about doing it the American way:
“I am tpfkar and I approve this post”
Postal Votes processed in Croydon so far:
Tuesday c. 1,400
Wenzday c. 4,200
Thurzday c. 8,100
Friday c. 11,000
Monday c. 14,000
Tuesday c. 17,000
Wenzday c. 19,000
Thurzday by 4pm: c. 20,500
out of a total of c.28,500 who applied
I really don’t like to boast, no really, but just two short hours ago I said:
“How’s this for sticking my neck on the block - I sense it might be one way for Ken’s odds from here on - out.
Now see, who is it on here who keeps reminding us on PB that someone always knows and someone always tells? …. With the polls closing in just over 2 hours, that becomes an ever more likely prospect”.
by Peter from Putney May 1st, 2008 at 7:53 pm
150 No commission on Betfair ‘backs’ - only ‘lays’
150
aaaahh now i follow!
142. Yes, we’ve suspended. Just waiting to see if any exit polls emerge. Might be up again soon. As thing stand, Ken is a marginally better result for us, but no real clues as to the result from this end.
Re: Yokel - Keep your money in your pocket. Betting on the Patriots winning no Assembly seats is throwing money away.
London mayor: Richard Barnbrook j/k Boris
London Assembly: 2 Patriots Elected (unless there is obscene levels of postal fraud)
Councillors (gains & losses): 15+ Patriotic Gains
Thank you Rob D Better mention that I am one of the few labour posters on this site,or in fact left in the UK!
You can withdraw your good wishes of you like!
153- peter from putney- when you are right, you are right. And I can catagorically say that you are right.
147 e.g. Boris @ 1.15, take of the 1 - it’s just your stake, then the odds are 1 / (100 divided by 15)
158 - That would be terribly unsporting of me
What are your prospects like?
138 VftSW. Oh very well …. a behind the scenes look at the PISSED staff number crunching the ARSE exit poll :
http://www.gagreport.com/images/man%20crush%20by%20woman.jpg
157 I fear you might get 3 Emily…
You will definitely fare better on the GLA Assembly & Top up than the Mayoralty itself.
Will the betfair market close at 10?
re 164. The Betfair market closes when the result is confirmed. Tomorrow will be a massive day.
polls now closed
162
I fear you will need your oxygen mask Jack. I hope its by the bedside..
Well here we go…
161
Funnily enough I’m in with a sniff, but count not till tomorrow.
QT could be fiery the guestlist is great.
http://www.smartcapper.com/tool_odds_converter.html
There ya go Maggie Thatcher fan
And that’s a wrap for another year….Crewe and Nantwich excepted.
Con home: Call it for Boris
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/
BBC 10 NEWS Radio2 leads with Tories needing to do well in northern cities !
um, what’s the arse based on?
162 - LOL! Well, if your exit poll is right, there will be a lot more LOLing tomorrow I think!
been out today in LibDem/tory hyper marginal with a incument trying to hang on. My thoughts are
- local can still trump national if the campaign is right.
- the shy tory phenomenon is a thing of the past
and in my home turf labour are bleeding but not dead. i think we are going to hang onto the lab?lD marginal i live in but they have put up a hell of a challenge and still have the money and activists in at least parts of britain.
Overall it feels like the LIb dems are over the iraq peak but with the proper campaigning we can be ok where we work.
I’m still on for net losses tonight though over all.
162-JackW- you old tinker
If Boris is that far ahead no-one should ever commission an opinion poll by anyone other than YouGov again.
Why are you all taking what JackW says serious?!?!
Rangers down to 10 men. Still 0-0.
TotallY OT has anyone posted these shocker polls for NC ?
Mason Dixon. Obama 49..Clinton 42
Insider Advantage..Obama 42 Clinton..44
In reality it could be that Obama is still at 49% just that he has a softer elemenet that Insider Advantage are getting as uncertains.
What both suggest though is that Clinton is making a fist of it.
Two polls for IA show Clinton 10 and 5 up.
180 - If you think he’s lying you can have a bet on Ken
Someone on Betfair asking 1.18 Boris for £50k!
Mayoral Election 2008 [ In-play ]
Selections (4) Back (101.0%) Lay (98.5%)
Boris Johnson 1.16 (£76) 1.18 (£49,985)
Ken Livingstone 7.0 (£429) 7.4 (£10)
Brian Paddick 300.0 (£20) 790.0 (£2)
Any Other Candidate 790.0 (£7) 1000.0 (£5)
Someone on Betfair asking 1.18 Boris for £50k!
TotallY OT has anyone posted these shocker polls for NC ?
Mason Dixon. Obama 49..Clinton 42
Insider Advantage..Obama 42 Clinton..44
In reality it could be that Obama is still at 49% just that he has a softer elemenet that Insider Advantage are getting as uncertains.
What both suggest though is that Clinton is making a fist of it.
Two polls for IA show Clinton 10 and 5 up.
How seriously can we take Conhome calling it for Boris?
Anyone else having issues with pb.com?
Never go down again PB!!
No exit polls then?
Has the server gone down for a few minutes?
188) They seem confident! http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2008/05/were-calling-lo.html
Sorry guys - massive traffic.
189 - Yes
189 - it has bcome very slow and had ‘database error’ a few minutes ago
yes, database error. I’m guessing its the volume of page hits that the server is taking.
For full coverage of pb.com status, please see:
http://orangebyname.blogspot.com/2008/05/cancel-election.html
Here is some background information to help people to interpret the tallying and extrapolate / guess / predict from it. The key point to bear in mind is that it is only the postal votes from Croydon, and not from Croydon & Sutton constituency. Therefore it will be necessary to make adjustments by looking at previous election results:
http://i31.tinypic.com/2u4suop.jpg
And here is some more background information so that people can extrapolate from Croydon to London as a whole:
http://i31.tinypic.com/2uotf69.jpg
Tally of postal votes (list section)
Caveat 1: Postal Votes are not necessarily representative of other votes
Caveat 2: Croydon is not necessarily representative of Croydon & Sutton
Caveat 3: Croydon is not necessarily representative of London
http://i32.tinypic.com/2gv9378.jpg
Tally of postal votes (constituency section)
Caveat 4: Small sample size
http://i32.tinypic.com/e9hnax.jpg
Tally of postal votes (Mayoral election)
Loads of caveats and pinches of salt
http://i29.tinypic.com/25sn53k.jpg
Extrapolations & Predictions:
(1) Big increase in Conservative vote with a big swing from UKIP and small swing from Lib Dem
(2) Conservative will gain Ealing & Hillingdon, but probably no other constituencies - although some of the remaining 4 might be close
(3) I predict that the Conservative Party will win 1 or 2 top-up seats
(4) Bad result for Lib Dems but Croydon may not be typical
(5) Decline in support for Green Party - I predict they will only hold 1 seat
(6) Apparent decline in support for BNP - I presume that this is outweighed by big increases in Dagenham and Havering, so I predict that the BNP will win 1 seat, but only just
(7) Complete collapse in UKIP vote - no chance of a seat
(8) Big drop in Respect vote - no chance of a seat unless something weird happens in City & East
(9) Steady state for Christian Choice - no chance of a seat but posssibly 2% or 3%
(10) One London Party Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
I am going to stick my neck out and predict Con 10 + 2 = 12 Lab 4 + 4 = 8 LD 3 Green 1 BNP 1 and I think Boris will win but I’m not sure by how much.
Not your week Tyson.
188. No more seriously than Bob Worcester calling it for Kerry! But I think they will have evidence that the Tory vote has come out as well as they had hoped, and hence they think they’ve won. And I think they’re probably right.
182 Yokel. Yup … Moi !!!
Mike,
Don’t be sorry. Its a reflection of how indispensable the site is.
Much better than the MSM!
Bollocks- bloody Rangers!
What a week!!
198. In fact, I’d like to volunteer my blog for all ARSE comments if pb.com goes down again.
198 - 20, we do need a backup pb.com!
203. They won’t win the final. Gordon will go and watch them…..
Okay, this site seems to be screwing up but just a quick word on a brewing furore in the US. ABC (yes that ABC of the infamous gutter debate) are giving Clinton a free broadcast of one of her town hall meetings on Sunday, a few days before the next primaries. The event to be hosted by ex Clinton staffer Stephanopolous who was castigated for his biased and vituperative questioning of Obama in the ABC debate.
Tyson - up your bigoted arse. rangers are through to the final!!!!
186 - that same guy is trying to lay it off at 1.16
there has still only been about 50k bet (100 traded) on betfair today… unconvincing but it doesnt look good for Ken… who is leaking this info if the polls only closed half an hour ago?
203 Nurse for Tyson !!!!!!
204 You keep your hands off my ARSE Julian !!!!
Holy monkeys, that’s some result for Rangers. Amazing managerial effort by Walter Smith, after all the heroics with Scotland. He’ll be in big demand this summer I suspect.
As for the mayorals…. the money appears pretty convinced, but I’m still a touch nervous.
282. What is your recent political development JohnLoony?
Drifting away from mostly being a wishy-washy centre-left bourgeois social democrat towards becoming a Marxist-Leninist-Stalinist-Maoist-Monarchist With Loony Characteristics.
292. So what happened to the other 2.3%? Are these people who didn’t cast a list vote? Spolied ballots?
Presumably they have included the spoilt votes in the total - which is illogical because spoilt votes do not count towards the calculation of the 5% threshold.
203 - For once we ageee Tyson. I know I should be happy to see a Scottish team doing well in Europe. Just not when it’s the Old Firm. Or indeed Hibs!!
210. Nice try, Jack. Your ARSE in open for public debate on any forum, and you know it.
BBC: Labour privately worried they are not going to win Durham.
201. Scary Jack, very scary.
It may not change the nomination but Obama is losing support somewhere and its amongst whites.
He cant win in November without them.
Who’s ready for an “all-nighter” then?
215 - The IA poll suggests it’s among blacks, I suggested there might be a deflation there over Obama’s angry disavowal of Wright.
Douglas Alexander clutching at straws on Sky News. I’m amazed he turned up!
Alexander on Sky News not denying Conhome claim
BBC: Labour privately concerned they are not going to win the new Durham council.
Alexander on Sky News not denying Conhome claim
The Birmingham count can be seen on their council website…with a comment from a man (I don’t know who the hell he is)
165 Tomorrow will be a massive day
No it won’t Mike, if the market thinks London’s all over bar the counting, which it does already!
Just saying high turnout in London and he doesn’t know
Evening again
Mrs Stodge and I duly exercised our prerogative - then we went out and voted
Seriously, not as busy as 2006 but still a steady flow through the polling station at 9.30pm. I’d still be surprised by a turnout figure from my Ward of higher than 35%.
Boris certain to win - have thought so for weeks. Wished I had lumped on. Those who took the good early odds can savour the next few hours.
I’m off to Lingfield tomorrow afternoon for some serious betting.
Good night all.
220 Surely Labour couldn’t lose Durham…ramping?
120 omg if labour cannot win Durham they have lost their back-end
Ed Devay talking about pushing Labour in third for the first time…erm, check the 2004 figures….
Some of the first results tonight will come from Chorley BC . There are several marginal wards . Euxton North and Chorley SE should be Con gains from Lab , on a bad Labour night so could Adlington . Lostock is an Ind/Con fight Independent defending . The one Conservative marginal Clayton Noth should be held but the majority is worth watching 71/152/93 in 2004/2006/2007 .
Labour not winning Durham?
That’s either an attempt to reduce expectations to rock bottom or electoral meltdown.
Any bets as to the size of YouGov’s libel claims?
215 If Labour don’t win the new Durham authority, it’s a rerun of 1968.
Wow, wow, wow
New(ish) server running at 100% CPU utilization
Stodge - I’m confused, is “Prerogative” your dog?
What are the current number of seats held by each party in Durham? BBC election map doesn’t have the figures.
Didn’t Labour have some problems with AWS in Durham with some CLPs being suspended (like Eastington CLP) in the run up of the election?
Poor MORI.
234. Haha! Excellent, best joke of the evening.
MORI = SORI
233 Robert - clearly huge numbers of Lurkers as there have not been that many posts.
238 Worcester = Toast
239 - I guess a lot of people will be like me. Intrigued by the way that a consensus has developed that Boris has definitely won, but not quite sure how much credence to give it. It matches my own instincts, but I learnt long ago that my instincts can be unreliable. So I read what others have to say and consider. But when I have nothing to add, I don’t post.
*delurks*
Anyne hearing anything?
Don’t be SHY!
Be a Lurk. Your country needs lurks.
John Curtice has had his hair cut at last!
I look forward to raising a toast to Ken with you all tomorrow night on his excellent victory.
BBC: Poll coming up on Newsnight
Previous thread At what point do they start counting postals? Wouldn’t it be better to wait until after 10pm?
The postal votes will be counted tomorrow along with all the other votes. Before the end of polling they have only been removed from their envelopes and had their identity statements (signatures and dates of birht) checked. Those which don’t match are rejected, and the others go to the count.
246 Aha, so the BBC was at least one “Someone who knew”
Er, Jeremy? Since when did 64 + 36 + 25 = 100?
248. But it’s not clear that they’ve got a traditional exit poll.
Kirsty Wark - anything she says tonight will be through gritted teeth.
246. Is that an exit poll?
btw, you do all know there is a new thread?
How can Boris be 1.18 on Betfair when the ballot boxes are still sealed? I’m willing to risk £50 to win £350 on an unknown result.
“Now it can be told” time, I guess. I did over 11 hours’ non-stop phone canvassing at Labour HQ today with a roomful of similar zealots, and I guess spoke to around 700 voters in Brentford, Hounslow, Hays & Harlington, Feltham and a bit of Bermondsey. (I have no idea why we were focusing on these especially - it’s what we were given, and no doubt others were getting other places.) In reading the following, bear in mind that we were phoning everyone whom we had some reason to think might be Labour - a canvass return, a past vote, a demographic profile. So I have absolutely no idea what the pro-Tory vote was doing, but you’ve got toher posters for that.
Notes:
- There are three main elements to the London Labour coalition: Guardianistas, the ethnic vote and the traditional working-class vote. The first group was fervently pro-Ken and pro-Labour, the second solid, the third distinctly shaky. Around 5% of the people we called were switching straight to Boris, nearly all in that third group. Another 10-15% were disillusioned, apathetic, etc. and mostly not going to vote at all. Another 20% or so couldn’t be reached or had good reasons not to vote - death in the family, hospital stay, abroad, etc. The remaining 65% appeared pretty solid and by the evening were telling us that they had indeed voted Labour. Virtually nobody was saying they were switching to any other party.
- Of the defectors and abstainers, nobody mentioned anything about Boris as a reason to change to him, but a few said they didn’t like Ken, including some who were going to vote Labour in the Assembly, while others talked openly of a protest vote (’If we don’t protest now, when can we, I ask yer?’ said one, affably enough), some of them adding that they’d return in a GE.
- There was a pretty active Labour ground operation in some of the boroughs - we switched away when we started to get reports that ‘your man called 20 minutes ago’. But in some places the canvassinng had obvviously been minnimal, with just a few names in the long street.
- To my surprise I didn’t encounter many pro-Ken non-Labour voters: in particular, asking about Labour worked better with ethnic voters than asking about Ken, who didn’t seem as universally known as I thought.
Virtually no issues were mentioned - no buses, no crime, no 10p, no Iraq, one on the congestion charge.
Conclusions? It’s only half the picture so I don’t know. Getting 65% of your targets out is not bad for a Mayoral election. If the Tories here are to be believed, though, they did that too, and if so I think they’ve probably won, though not by a landslide. I think there will be a severe squeeze on 3rd party Mayoral candidates, and that turnout will be well over 40%, quite possibly over 50%.
Note by the way that there was some other phone canvasssing going on for Birmingham and elsewhere: Labour hopes for a few consolation prizes.
Chorley-Euxton North
Con 908
Lab 745
Con hold
252 That’s a very fair and honest post, and I think you’re quite correct. Ken will get the GMW vote, he’ll get most of the ethnic minorities, and he has seriously alienated white working class voters in London.
Euxton North was a Conservative gain compared to 2004 though they won the ward in 2006 . Chorley North East was labour hold majority down from 234 to 114 . Chorles South West labour hold majority 59 down from 170 last year . Not Labour meltdown on these results but will be a poor night for them .