PB’s YouGov figures are confirmed
May 1st, 2008
The Evening Standard’s final YouGov poll of the mayoral campaign has just been published and the figures are exactly as was reported here at 9.27 pm last night.
On first preferences it is BORIS 43%: KEN 36%: PADDICK 13%. After the redistribution of second preferences it splits BORIS 53%: KEN 47%
From the poll detail it appears that there has been a hardening up of support by party allegiance. Two days ago 87% of those who have told the firm that they are Tories said they were backing Boris - today’s numbers have that at 94%. It’s the same with Labour supporters where there had been an increase in support for Ken. He’s now getting 76% of those who have identified themselves to the firm as Labour backers.
The detailed data shows that Boris is retaining the support of 84% of those who have told the firm that they are Tories while Ken is now getting 63% of those who have identified themselves to the firm as Labour backers. The Lib Dem “identifiers” split almost three ways between the leading candidates.
The poll data also shows that Boris is picking up just about two three voters from the 55+ age group for every one two to Ken. This is broadly in line with most of the recent polls and is significant because more than any other segment of the population older people turn out to vote.
My apologies for getting this wrong in the first version of the article - I was reading the lines for Westminster voting intention and not today’s ballot.
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Mike Smithson
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Thanks Mike. YouGov have this correct, I think. A comfortable win for Boris, but not a landslide. I suspect this will be very, very close to reality now.
Do we get the London Assembly results tonight? Or does that wait until tomorrow like the Mayoral contest as well?
Well, it’s a lot better for Ken than the 11% lead Boris had the other day. We’re just going to have to wait and see.
1 - GIN - “Do we get the London Assembly results tonight?”
Overnight tonight I believe. Should be an indicator (although Livingstone will poll well above Labour votes for the assembly) as to how the mayoral election will go.
Is that 76% of those who identified themselves as Labour in 2005 (but now might be Tory/Lib-Dem etc) or those who identify themselves as Labour today in 2008? If its the former then the 94% and 76% are not directly comparable.
Any idea when we’ll get first turnout figures?
Daring to believe that Boris might actually do it now. God it’d be good to say goodbye to Ken…
I’ll admit to not having read *all* the posts about this in the last couple of days, so apologies if this has already been answered, but are there likely to be exit polls this evening?
Got to be good news for Boris? Looks - from my admittedly distant perspective - that Ken has fought back this week, but that it’s not quite been enough. 1.36 on Boris looks about the right price.
Notwithstanding Smithson’s Law, I now do think that the 11% YouGov lead was indeed a “rogue poll”. I think this is going to the wire…
It is funny how the very last opinion polls always appear to look far more rational. So an 11% Boris win (clearly not going to happen) falls to a much more realistic 6% lead.
Didn’t this happen in the 2005 election as well when most of the pollsters were predicting 3-5% Labour leads in their final polls as opposed to the consistent 8-10% that were presented during the campaign.
I think some creative rounding happens at the end to try and ensure some credibility
Extreme caution advised on that poll.
i) very high figures for Lab and Con on the Assembly. Combined Lab+Con at 73% versus 52.2% in 2004. Something wrong there..
ii) Assembly swing much lower than mayoral swing. 1.8% versus 7.25%. Something wrong there too..
Alarm bells start ringing?
My forecast: a recount..
Oh I forgot, they can’t do recounts…
Result:CHAOS
Londoners can relax! Mayor Boris, won’t be causing any problems, he’ll be staying in Henley.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3850640.ece
This should be the ideal result for Boris, no place for complacency among his supporters - should GOTV.
For those wanting to get the taste of “that” Grauniad piece out of their mouths - read this, to the end!
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/04/michael_whites_political_blog_142.html
9. i think that you may be right on the money for this one.
9 - surely the lab+con 73% figure is possible this time because of the shrinkage of the significant vote UKIP achieved last time?
9 - if you’re wrong, do you promise not to post for a couple of days - at least?
12. My word they really are upset!
Have just finished telling and have visted the other Polling Stations in my Ward …
Busier/Higher Turn out than the ‘06 Locals.
Boris by 10% +
This piece from the Guardian should upset some of you even more.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/apr/30/london.conservatives
re 9. Rod - how are you measuring the Assembly swings? Because last the Tories had a big margin in votes for the assembly but Norris finished up more than 10% behind Ken for the Mayoralty.
My reading is that Tories are following their allegiance which they did not do to the same extent in 2004.
Just been informed of very high turnout in Arkley area of High Barnet ward (very strong Conservative area).
In 90 mins at one polling station there were 60 people. By comparison there would usually be 20-30 maximum for eqivalent time period at local elections.
18. It really is hilarious. If Boris wins, the collective biff on the nose to the people in those 3 guardian articles is great.
Not wanting to sound like king kev “but i would love it if Ken loses”
Re 10 - from that report:
‘”John Walsh, the Conservative agent in Henley, said that the local association would be looking for a candidate “in an orderly fashion”. He added: “This will not be done in a rush. We have a timetable to select a candidate before the summer holiday, with a potential for an autumn or spring by-election.” ‘
Surely this is madness and sets it up for the LD by election team. I expected him not to stand down at all, but if he does he should do it fast to minimise the time the LDs have to work it.
‘Boris ahead in polls, but it’s so close’ says the Standard: http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23481565-details/Boris+ahead+in+polls%2C+but+it%27s+so+close/article.do
Looking at the numbers to pull out the margin of error (for example, the last MORI had a 4% MoE on the 2nd prefs) and assuming for the sake of argument that a normal distribution can be assumed (with MoE being the standard 95% confidence interval):
To 1 dp*:
Boris: 43.1% (MoE +/- 2.6%)
Ken: 35.8% (MoE +/- 2.5%)
Brian: 12.5% (MoE +/- 1.8%)
2nd prefs
Boris: 53.0% (MoE +/- 2.8%)
Ken: 47.0% (MoE +/- 2.5%)
Percentage chance that Boris is truly ahead after 2nd prefs on this poll and sample size: 97.21%
It would have to be a real rogue for Ken to be ahead - or a sampling/process bias in the YouGov poll (or that famous dead Russian, the “late Serge”). So it’s down to: How much do you trust the YouGov methodology?
* (taking to 1 dp not recommended usually due to the wide error bars - but doing it in this case to find out exactly how wide the error margin actually is by establishing a more precise centre point of the probability spread in each case)
18. God, the Guardian really is going after Boris hard, aren’t they? Almost as much as the Evening Standard have been going after Ken! Somehow though, I doubt all these anti-Boris stuff they’re running at the last minute will make any difference to the outcome. If Boris wins, as he surely will, they’ll end up looking pretty ridiculous, much as they did after their risible attempt to stop Americans voting for Bush in 2004.
22
Odds on Boris finding a reason too hang on till the GE?
ken winning would beat Kinnock losing!!!
22 - But surely they can just get the Libs the p1ss money and resources up the wall by saying - looking for a candidate - maybe autumn - maybe spring - maybe next year - oh actually, there’s only 18months till Gordon has to go anyway, why not just wait till then…
26. high
25
Surely you shouldn’t be surprised? its this that should concern any Tory.
http://playpolitical.typepad.com/
For those that haven’t seen it.
Just popped back in from telling (in Ealing) for a couple of hours.
Really strong turn out (by-election running today as well so we’ve hit the area hard). Lab and Lib Dems have no tellers in any of the ward’s polling districts.
Entirely unscientifically…My blue rosette was pretty well received, and I got a fair few (unsolicited)people telling me that they’d backed Boris. And one person who told me that Richard Barnbrook was the only sensible choice!
It’s anecdotal, but I think that high turnout in this part of London suits Boris (not in neighbouring Southall though!).
26 Agreed. There’s nothing more certain.
26. well the people of henley have already gone several months without proper representation in parliament during his campaign - what difference should a few more matter?
Why has Heffer waited till today to make this attack on Johnson? And wasn’t it Heffer who wrote the Liverpool article for the Spectator? Is there a bit of emnity between him and Boris?
19.
Tory Assembly vote lead 2004: 3.4%
Tory Assemby vote lead YouGov: 7.0%
swing to Tories (7.0-3.4)/2 = 1.8%
Tory mayoral vote lead 2004: (-7.5%)
Tory mayoral vote lead YouGov: 7.0%
swing to Tories (7.0-(-7.5))/2 = 7.25%
I find it hard to believe Boris is outperforming the Tory Assembly swing by that much… He’s outperforming the Tories by a factor of 4……!
If the true mayoral swing is half-way between the two, Ken will win this very.. very.. very.. narrowly on second peferences….
33 - It’s hardly as if the people of Henley are particularly in need of their MPs help that often is it?
26 6-1 on
Haha - those Guardian articles crack me up.
On the “Tory” commentators:
One from a man who’s about 110 years old, has a name like a rare bird of prey and more hair growing from his nostrils than his head, and the other from a man who, quite frankly, is a very nasty piece of work with a surname like an SS Officer.
I’ll leave you to work out which.
On the “Boris is a Nutter, a Racist, A Mad-Man, A Buffoon……ARRRGGHHH!!! He’s going to win! Please don’t let him… PLEASE!!” article in the Guardian, that just made me laugh.
Zoe “whatshername” - desperate, desperate scaremongering stuff. Classic reaction of the Left when the Right are in the ascendancy.
Boris will win. And he will be good.
Time to get over it.
34. Because Heffer is an absolute c***
(sorry Mike, hope you can make an exception for that language… given it’s Simon Heffer we’re talking about here)
3. Thanks very much.
35. Easy to explain. Tory assembly voters are know backing their mayoral candidate. And the size of the Tory base has increased slightly.
26 Salmond still hanging on to both jobs isn`t he, So why can`t Boris and any other free loaders.
35) Rod Crosby - this race is about 2 huge personalities Boris vs Ken. Lib Dem, Green, BNP etc voters are highly highly aware their Mayor will be one of these 2.
It is very likely that people from other parties are voting Ken or Boris for Mayor but their own affiliations for the assembly to a much greater extent than before.
24,
D’oh! Schoolboy error: 97.21% excludes the chance of a Boris win by more than the difference from 50%.
Actual percentage chance of a Boris lead on the strength of this poll is 98.61%
Methodology error, late swing or extreme luck needed for Ken.
39 - nothing wrong with calling Heffer a clot.
34 - who Heffer?
24. Andy Cooke. Based on your assessment does that mean that, if you trust the YouGov methodology, there is a 95% chance,(1.05 on betfair or 1/19 bookies) that Boris 1st preference share is between 40.05-45.70% ?
Ladbrokes are laying 7/4 (2.75 Betfair, 36% chance) that Boris gets a 1st prefernce between 40-45%, which covers all but 0.7% of the spread. I’ve had some.
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re 24 Yep, just what is the bias in the YouGov sample? Looks to me like a tight finish because:
1. Boris needs a swing at least in line with swing in National polls. Likely but not certain.
2. Ken is finishing slightly stronger, as realisation spreads he is likely to lose (all three pollsters give him their highest % - inc. 2nd vote - with their final poll).
3. Though mruk and MORI very likely to overstate Ken, I’d also be surprised if they were so far out that the margin was greater than YouGov shows.
4. There isn’t a very recent non-YouGov poll to pick up any late firming of Ken vote (which You Gov detects, though not enough with their sample).
5. More Labour footsoldiers will be out for Ken than would be the case for other candidates at this time.
Conclusion, Boris lead 0 - 4%. Not enough to have me backing at 1.3ish. Though 1.4+ would tempt me.
43, If the GE is a re-run between the Dour Ditherer and the Shallow Salesman, this could be the template, for both main parties.
Well, haven’t posted for months, thought i’d drop in and pick up any early ‘feeling’ as to how things are going. Living in Leicester means that the mayoral race is not of direct interest to me, more the political fallout. Is a Boris win a good thing for the Tories? As the Arthur Wellesly said, or as close as I can remember, “The next worse thing to a battle lost is a battle won”, not sure thats a relevant quote, but it wastes a few more minutes.
I agree that swing difference between Tory Assembly votes and Johnson is odd.
But you have to ask whether that’s because their candidate last time around was relatively unpopular. Johnson is more ‘acceptable’ for his party than Norris was.
On the other hand last time around I believe the Tory Assembly vote was hurt by UKIP - with UKIP getting 2% now vs >10% then how can the swing only be 1.8%? Where would those 8% of votes go?
52, perhaps the mayoral vote is affected by the fact that only Boris or Ken can win, so he’s bolstered by an anti-Ken vote?
53) Absolutely. See my post at 43) - “its not rocket science*”
*phrase may be on the v’erboten’ list
If it is so close how come the bookies have a massive gap? Someone must be wrong.
Does anyone know if the detailed data second mruk poll is online anywhere ?
Postal voting trends favour Ken’s rivals.
The Evening Standard survey obtained figures from 29 of London’s 32 borough councils. Boris Johnson-supporting boroughs such as Barnet, Bromley, Wandsworth and Croydon have piled up tens of thousands of postal vote applications, more than twice as many as some Labour boroughs.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23481555-details/Postal+voting+trends+favour+Ken’s+rivals/article.do
-This looks in-line with Iain Dale’s leak.
Slightly O/T
Gord will not be a happy bunny tonight
Beleaguered Gordon Brown suffered a fresh blow today as a key Labour think-tank accused him of “neurotic under-confidence”.
The Prime Minister worries too much about presentation and must “cancel Number 10’s subscription to PR Week”, according to the Fabian Society.
Strong and radical leadership was needed because Labour was “badly stuck” over how to win the next general election, the society said.
The damning critique was delivered by Sunder Katwala, the general secretary of the left-wing think-tank.
It will be particularly stinging for Mr Brown as - like all previous Labour premiers - he counts himself among the organisation’s members.
*** unbroken link for above; http://tinyurl.com/68mebj
What was Labour’s Assembly vote share last time? YouGov is saying 33%, seems a bit high.
Ken Livingstone is only getting 36% of total votes, if you assume all Labour supporters will support him (what’s the point in electing Labour Assembly members if you don’t?) that leaves only about 5% of all remaining voters supporting him.
12 An once again, for all hate filled lefties, I recomend The Art of Happiness by the Dalai Lama
http://www.amazon.com/Art-Happiness-Handbook-Living/dp/1573221112
@60…
Con 27.8
Lab 24.4
LD 16.5
Grn 8.4
BNP 4.7
UKIP 8.2
36. I suppose they don’t necessarily need an MP, but this shows just how unaccountable MPs in these sorts of safe seats are.
If the Labour Assembly vote was actually 29% that would leave ~10% of supporters of all other parties to vote for Ken which is more reasonable.
Prediction, Labour does worse than expected.
So YouGov is showing the Tories up 12.2% and Labour up 8.6%, which surely must be b0llocks….
47,stjohn: Yup.
Assuming, of course, no methodology errors or very late swing.
Also “cityam” poll results;
http://www.cityam.com/index.php?news=12671
Cityam is a free sheet handed out to commuters around the City Of London. Daily circ 95K. Readers have average salary of £65,000. Claims reach of 350k.
57. Note the low numbers of postal votes issued in Newham, Tower Hamlets and Barking.
My geography is not that good but I think that suggests that the possibility of unusually high turnout in muslim areas can be discounted.
Mike. From the main article. You say that 94% of those who have told YouGov that they are Tories are backing Boris. Looking at the YouGov data I read it as 84%, with 63% of Labour identifiers backing Ken. The respective figures for Westminster voting intentions are 94% Tory identifiers and 78% Labour identifiers. I think I’ve read this correctly?
47 Ladbrokes are offering 6/4 on 40-44.99% and 11/4 on 45-49.99% so you can cover the whole 40-49.99% range - free money surely?? It seems unfeasible that BoJo won’t get somewhere between those 2 figures on first preferences.
68. I doubt, however, that we’ll see retractions from those who insinuated that muslims would be rigging the elections using postal vote fraud.
70. Up at least 12% on 2004? That is a big ask…
36% of people didn’t give a 1st pref to either Lab or Con last time. That’s more than Ken got…
47. Good spot stjohn. I’ve had some of that together with the 15/8 PaddyPower are offering for the same outcome, plus a small saver at their 10/3 for BJ 45%+.
The 5/6 PP offer for Ken to win on 2nd Prefs still looks OK value as well on the back of these latest numbers, though I’m hoping Hills might put up a bigger price later.
Good grief sounds more like London rejects!
73. Just to clarify, I meant to say for Ken to beat Boris on the 2nd prefs only, not overall, and obviously Brian Paddick should win 2nd prefs overall.
Marquee Mark noted on the previous thread that super delegate Joe Andrew had switched from Clinton to Obama. The Wall Street Journal has the story :
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120962832953558997.html?mod=special_page_campaign2008_leftbox
70
Not necessarily. Betting at 6/4 and 11/4 equates to 67% between 40-49.9% share of the vote. Sounds excessive to me seeing as Ken’s overly popular election victories in 2000 and 2004 couldn’t see him in the 40s. This is a much closer affair as well. Although Boris may well get over 40% the probability is most certainly not 67% thus I don’t see how this can be a value bet at all.
68. — Very good news for punters and Boris backers!
Boris still looks like excellent value on Betfair to me….
I’ll be topping-up when I get home!
Anything over 1.25 is good value for me.. with the postal vote evidence to boot, Ken has lost this.
71. Another astroturfer…
65. OK, just guessing …
Assume the YouGov panel is more knowledgable (about the London voting system) than the average voter.
More ‘average’ voters turn up, for the first time at a London poll, than usual. They know about the Mayor vote between Boris/Ken and that is what they are primarily there for. Yet they are then handed another ballot paper for the Assembly so they vote, but more ‘randomly’, on that paper.
So YouGov over-estimates the combined Lab/Con vote for the Assembly.
re 69. You are correct - I was looking at the Westminster voting intention figures.
OT, but Dianne Abbot apparently given a public dressing down by the Labour whips…
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2008/05/are-labour-whip.html
Boris drifting on Betfair. 1.44 available Ken into 3.2. Twitchy bum time!
small move back to Ken on Betfair.
Boris shifted out above 1.40 and Ken into 3.1.
Profit taking perhaps?
84) Nerves.
85. They’ve long gone!
84) I’m always a nervous wreck on settlement day, whatever my conviction level. Anyone fancy a beer?
OT again but NC poll puts Clinton ahead.
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_430_370.aspx
There may be a drift away from Obama from the “educated” white voters who have given him such solid support so far.
Still can’t see him losing NC but I’d say Indiana is well and truly gone now. Hopefuilly Betfair will put up another handicap market for these primaries.
88 Ernesto. How might one pull this simply …. oh yes IA are cr*p !!
http://electioninspection.wordpress.com/2008/04/30/insider-advantage-sucks/
Although no votes have yet been counted, do the parties/candidates already have a rough idea of what is going with the votes?
Lets all start drinking now!
91. Off to work. Hopefully not too much to do and then get on it. It’s going to be a long night/48 hours.
90 - From experience you usually have a feel, you don’t ever know for certain until the result is given to you. Most candidates though are like a cat on hot bricks election day, and they are all convinced that they will lose.
a lot of us watching Betfair, then. Am tempted to put a few quid on Boris, but always nervous of a sliding price.
88. cr*p they may be but they called Pennsylvania at 10% win and 7% win. Their last poll for NC was 15% Obama lead.
This is the first poll since the pastor’s appearance at the NPC isn’t it? The poll was taken that day in fact.
93 - to be fair, most of them are right.
93 - Thanks James
96 - He he he
Slightly surprised at the Betfair move as surely those postal voting numbers must be very good for Boris. High in Conservative areas and low in Labour areas across the board and by large margins.
I know the figures are only postal vote applications but postal votes returned are likely to bear a strong correlation.
Add in the Iain Dale info (which appears to be the only actual specific info on actual votes cast) and I would say indications are favourable for Boris.
have laid Ken at 3.25 - seems good value.
Excellent in-depth analysis on ‘Fivethirtyeight’ on the likely delegate split in Indiana - O-36/C-36 :
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/indiana-toss-up-but-tilts-clinton.html
95 Ernesto. Even a stopped clock is right twice each day !!
However if such polls allow Obama to drift in the markets then so much the better !!
101 -Wheras a clock that is wrong, is wrong all the time !
82
I’m sure the only reason that slob keeps her job is because if they tried to dump her there would be screams of racism.
102 Rob. Too deep for me !!
99. To anyone that wasn’t pb minded, that could be quite a scary comment
US Democrats.
Rumours Clinton picking up 4 supers today and Obama 2, but one of Obams’s is the Andrews switch from Clinton, that would leave it 3-2
to Clinton. So far only Andrews public, he could have some significance, endorsing Clinton early, but changing now, saying its all going on too long.
I would bet on a drift back to Obama over the next few days, not much but enough to give him N Carolina.
101 Easy there! I want HRC to drift a wee bit first.
106 dave(s). I think they are the add-ons from New York (4) and Maryland (2). So Hillary will get the former and Obama the latter.
107 Ernesto.
Of course, if the turnout is 41% (nearly 5% up on last time) then MORI predict a dead heat with 4% MoE (based on a poll that, it must be admitted, was taken some days ago), so:
A Boris (2nd preference) vote between 50.3 and 54.0 would be within the MoE of both polls …
102. A clock that is wrong is still right twice a day!
Very surprised at the Betfair move.
Who in their right mind thinks Ken is winning this?
High turnout - yes - but not in the right areas for Ken, sadly for him.
103 - She is reasonably secure, so I understand, in her CLP.
110 Tick tock …. Do you have horological tendencies …. in that loft ??
Probably a silly question, but if Boris wins does he become Mayor immediately the result is announced, or is there a set date for him to take over?
110 - If a clock is 5 minutes fast and is keeping time then it will alwasy be 5 minutes fast and ergo always wrong.
114 - 2 days grace I think
114 -Sunday night -I think?
And could differential turnout be key here, the turnout could be 40%+, but because more of Boris’ voters came out, he could still win by a larger margin?
113. No but I’m think of getting the rope in place should Ken win!
Conhome report - North London;
—————–
Working in a busy Constituency Office in North London. Early telling results coming in:
Meltdown in the Labour vote so far up here! All our supporters are turning out. Busy polling stations.
Posted by: Douglas X | May 01, 2008 at 13:41
110 - Eventually it would be right due to leap seconds, but lets not get way ahead of ourselves here!
There’s no way anyone can relax till about 9pm tonight, after which 98% of people will have voted.
6 hours to go!!!!
110 Surely not - if its running fast or slow it’s always giving the wrong time?
Are the figures for the London Assembly based on constituencies (in which case, they could be plausible in a polarised election) or the List, where they’re plainly implausible.
Sporting a decidedly gruesome umbrella and an even more unsavoury hangover, I slithered out of bed at 10 and went along to vote for Boris. Outside the tube station Conservative party greasemonkeys were inexorably shoving Back Boris leaflets into the hands of the outgoing and incoming commuters, and the zeal with which they thrusted was more than matched by the enthusiasm with which they were accepted. Not overly surprising given my constituency (City & East), but what was startling was how diverse the range of people taking them were - people of all ages and races. This was particularly heartening.
What made my day, however, wasn’t voting for the first time, but seeing a large group of students (and, I presume, fellow first time voters) storm into the polling station, with one intoning “right, let’s get rid of the bastard”. In terms of heart warming exercises, it beats watching The Sound of Music any day of the week. Boris is going to do it.
109, and if we loosely extrapolate that the first preferences change with turnout directly proportional to the second preferences in MORI’s data, then on a similar turnout, the following range should be compatible with both polls:
Boris: 40.5-43.5
Ken: 35.4-38.3
… but now we’re really getting into “just a bit of fun” territory
116
Does Lee Jasper have to wait until sunday before he gets sacked or does he automatically go as part of Livingstone’s baggage?
Anyway we should at least offer Lee a vote of thanks for his help in getting rid of Livingstone.
124. That’s a lovely story…
Particularly enjoyed this bit:
“What made my day, however, wasn’t voting for the first time, but seeing a large group of students (and, I presume, fellow first time voters) storm into the polling station, with one intoning “right, let’s get rid of the bastard”.
123 - Going by the parties listed in the detail figures I presume it asked about the list. I have doubts about it as well.
127 reminds me of the stories of people signing up in August 1914. For polling station read recruitment office. Ken as Kaiser Bill needs a little more imagination…
Just got back from voting. As some PBers know, I actually voted Green for my city council because our recyling facilities are terrible and the Tory candidate is not of the “vote Blue go Green” variety, to put it mildly.
If I lived in London I’d be voting Tory to the hilt.
Lovely day here, sun is shining and the turnout looks to be high. People coming and going out of my local polling station, never empty whilst I was there.
(I’m not one of those people who thinks high turnout favours one party over another, but it was good to see).
128 Looking at the details, it doesn’t specify if it’s constituency or list or if they just asked “Who would you vote for for the London Assembly?” without differentiating between the two.
131 But there’s simply no way the big two would get 73% between them for the list.
and with all these stories showing Boris has it in the bag the posters quietly slip away to Betfair and put a few quid savers on Ken .
Danger of group think….its close and all these anecdotes add up to absolutely nothing…I for one am suddenley getting collywobbles and thinking..oh f*** what if YouGov really are pants……modest dosh at stake only but massive emotional energy invested in getting rid of the Trot once and for all…Oh and I also really really want to read the Guardian and Independent on Saturday…the self-righteous condescension from that effete popinjay Steve Richards was awful..their sense of entitlement and unfounded superioty is breathtaking…the sort of bloke we used to take great delight in giving “wedgies” to at school…
131 - It’s hardly encouraging that the pollsters don’t understand the election.
Julia seems to be going round the blogs preparing the ground to defend MORI from the derision that could be coming their way tomorrow night.
133 - Mark I take it you think it is going to Livingstone rather than Boris?
133
It is a well known and accepted fact that Boris’ vote is more solid than Ken’s, so is it fair to say maybe Ken’s share has been overestimated for the third election running?
This would explain a sizeable percentage of that 73% that perhaps should not be there.
134 - In many ways the Indie piece was worst as the Guardian piece was just hilarious while Steve Richards’ was just breathtakingly smug.
136 I will be very surprised if it is Ken but I have no money in this market to worry about . I am still in the Clinton/Obama market now £ 150 green whoever wins .
131 - It didnt sepcify in the table the last time either when I know for sure it was a question about the constituencies that time (as I had taken part in the survey). So I dont think the wording above the table reveals anything. It’s just, for example, they had the ’stop the congestion charge’ party listed and they are, I think, only standing on the list rather than in the constituencies.
132 - I agree. (I hope!!!)
Superdelegate John Olsen of Connectecut is expected to endorse Hillary later today according to Mark Halperin of ‘Time’
135.
All Julia Clark is doing is explaining to a mostly ignorant media what poll numbers mean. She has consistently argued here that minor poll leads for either Ken or Boris show them ‘neck and neck’, and I fail to see why she or her company should be derided purely because they understand the maths behind the polls they produce.
138. For those who didn’t see it: the Independent actually endorsed the Green candidate, Sian Berry! Making them the only major newspaper to do so (although describing the Indie as a ‘major’ newspaper is probably stretching it a bit). They obviously called on their readers to give their second-preference votes to Ken, but it says something that they don’t think he should be their first choice…
140. If it’s based on the constituency vote, the poll is even more out of whack…
It implies only a 0.25% Tory swing, compared to 7.25% for Johnson.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Assembly_election,_2004
New Mason Dixson/WRAL Primary poll for North Carolina :
Clinton 42% .. Obama 49%
http://www.wral.com/news/local/politics/story/2818209/
143 - The Observer pretty much backed a Sian 1, Ken 2 vote as well.
Any news yet on whether there will/will not be London exit polls?
Are people betting on the London Assembly seats? It’s not something I’ve seen discussed a lot.
Personally, I see Conservatives doing very well, Lib Dems doing well, Greens getting 2 Assembly seats, BNP failing to win a seat, with possibly one of the maveick candidates picking up one.
While I think Ken’ll win, Labour will do really poorly otherwise.
Anyway, all of this “polling station” evidence is Hokum.
I fought a marginal seat in 2005 - did really well until around 5.30pm when ALLLL the full-time working voters turned out and screwed us.
You can tell by the eye-contact.
148 - Ive been posting under the name of Rob, I didnt see you around, I’ll use Rob D now
133
Mark,you must be expecting some good results for the Lib Dems tonight after all those promising by-election results;what’s your forecast for Lib Dem seat gains and council gains?
Overall turnout at 1 sad to be 10 pc, a little over usual for locals. Info is third hand though
149 - But surely this is the time of day when Ken’s unemployed and yoof vote should be stacking up the lead for when people get home.
I’d be very unsurprised if turnout is between 35 and 40%
It certainly felt more local election than general election in my polling booth in a Labourite area.
Bad news for Labour Councillors in the North, Sky reporting Northern Rocks plans for 2000 redundancies
150.
Oh cripes, sorry; I tend not to register most poster’s names and didn’t even think they may be another Rob. I’ve changed my name too, so if you’d like to revert back to ‘Rob’ you can (I’m sure you’re a more long-standing and valued poster than I am/will be, so you should be free to have the name you want.)
Sorry again.
Now, there’s no Rob E’s I have to worry about is there?
147 PfP. ARSE.
151.
152. Nick - your post confused me. What is it you’re trying to say?
145. Cheers Jack. That sounds about (W)right although I’m not sure if it was polled before or after the press club appearance. Definitely a drift.
Noticed that the NC governor called for HRC too.
Might have a dabble at over 8’s
Useless andecdote #1002
Lunchtime p0ker 4:1 in favour of Ken.
BUT
The wives and girlfriends split in favour of “nice” Boris.
148. “When all else fails a complete inability to stare facts in the face will always see us through”
155 - It’s more like an instruction to the hobbies of people in the inner cities!
I need to go back to sleep with that level of comedy I think
40ish cockney couple behind me on penzance train. Her ‘i hope that boris gets in’. Him ‘yeah. Need a change. Whats the other ones name?’
155 - No I don’t really post much, will use Rob D from now on too. No worries or anything.
153. Yup. True.
It looks like what Labour voters that still exist are staying at home today.
162 Find out if they voted!
158 Ernesto. Over 8’s - easy !!
will we know the turnout numbers today or tomorrow?
151 I posted my forecasts for gains and losses on here the other day . Haven’t time to repeat it at the mo as I am at work .
1. and 3.
No, no, the Assembly ballot papers are put in the same box as the Mayoral ballot papers - they’re all sealed and taken to the three regional count centres to be opened tomorrow, from 8.30am.
So no assembly results tonight cos they’re not counted til tomorrow.
167. Turnout numbers for where? London? No - because they’re not being counted until tomorrow.
Well,well. Boris backers ain’t too confident at the moment. Price wobbling like the Millenium Bridge used to, I would say. Probably a good moment to back him, but who knows…
More importantly, 2.5 hours until Leeds find out how many if any points we’re getting back.
**bites fingers**
If we get none and Ken wins it will be a bloody long night in the office
170. Yes but ZanuLab know the result already.
Latest Rasmussen Presidential and Primary trackers :
McCain 44% .. Clinton 44%
McCain 46% .. Obama 43%
Clinton 46% .. Obama 44%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Overheard two pigeons sitting on the wall outside my bedroom window this morning at about 6.30am…
One of them cocked his head to his mate, blinked, made his mating call: “WOOOH-WOO-WOOOOOOH! WOOO WOOOOO!!”, pecked around a bit on the ground for some grain (sadly without finding anything) before opening his beak and saying: “That Livingstone is a right c**t isn’t he?”
The other female looked to her right, blinked, and said: “Yeah. Too right. I’m voting for Boris.” - before they both walked off down my street to the polling station.
This looks like it’s going to be a landslide defeat.
I’ll agree with JH on the danger of groupthink… but we’ve not had anyone here making a rational case for Ken being /ahead/, either.
Ugh. I stand to lose just over £300 if Ken scrapes in - my biggest ever exposure on a politics bet.
I’m a terrible wimp when it comes to betting - I almost always end up with an (almost) green book. But Betfair’s lay odds on Boris are around the 1.5 mark - just high enough to encourage me to hold my nerve and hang on to my little collection of betting slips for now.
My fingernails are going to be in a worse state than Gordon Brown’s by the end of tomorrow…
Weather watch Lewisham.
It’s not raining. Ken will be dancing in the streets.
New Rasmussem Primary Polls for Indiana and North Carolina :
Indiana - Clinton 46% .. Obama 41%
North Carolina - Clinton 37% .. Obama 51%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/indiana/indiana_democratic_primary
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/north_carolina_democratic_primary
175. Sounds more like a coup than an election.
156 Thanks, Jack, for confirming there will be an ARSE exit poll tonight - can’t wait.
I should point out, re my train anecdote, i am in first class. So these must b quite rich cockneys.
Squeaky bum time for any one-way Boris backers.I am still trying to smooth out as efficiently as possible.
177. There has been one shower at London bridge all day so I dont think weather is going to play a big part.
New Rasmussen Presidential Poll for New Hampshire :
McCain 47% .. Clinton 44%
McCain 51% .. Obama 41%
http://www.rasmussenreports.c