The money piles on Boris
May 1st, 2008
But has YouGov got this one right?
The former political journalist and one of the founders of YouGov, Peter Kellner, was reported to be quipping to colleagues yesterday: “One thing is certain: by Friday night - either Ken Livingstone or I will be out of a job”.
For of the four firms that have surveyed Londoners only his firm, the controversial online pollster YouGov, has consistently reported significant margins for the Tory contender. The other firms - ICM, MRUK and Ipsos-MORI - have either shown the candidates neck and next or else that Ken has had a small lead.
Overnight, as reported in the previous thread, I was given a tip-off from a source who has proved reliable in the past that today’s final YouGov poll would show a slight narrowing of the margin but with Boris having an ample margin. He had an 8% lead on first preferences reducing to 6% after second preferences has been allocated. The poll will be in today’s Evening Standard which should be available from about 11am.
The MORI polling firm has taken me to task for my much repeated view that first preference polling figures are more robust than the second preference ones. There are several elements here not least the complication of the ballot form itself where electors have to put their crosses in two columns - something that can cause confusion. Last time a largish group of voters left the second column blank or simply repeated their first choice selection there.
Another factor is that within polling samples the number of interviewees on whom second preference figures are calculated can be very small - a point that has been highlighted by the head of ICM, Nick Sparrow.
Betting activity has started to build up and will continue after the polling stations close at 10pm right until the official figures are announced at City Hall tomorrow evening.
Will there be an exit poll? Last time ITN commissioned MORI which reported a final Ken Margin of 8% against the 10% that actually happened - a very good performance. I’m not aware of any firm being hired this time but it is still possible.
These were the prices at 0430. If you are betting today please click on the panel or use the links from here. This provides a revenue source that helps keep PB going.
Mike Smithson
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I’m off to a hyper marginal Lib Dem council seat up against the tories with ashcroft money. It won’t count till tommorrow but I will try and post something from the ground.
Good luck everyone!
Morning,
5am on election day and muggins here is delivering good morning leaflets in a tight marginal ward, then jumping on a train to the othe end of the country, before hopefully making it back in time to vote. Having had almost no spare time recently, I’ve managed a grand total of one canvasing session so far, so it’s about time to put a bit of effort in.
Best wishes to all peebies involved today at whatever level.
Not only has the Daily Telegraph commissioned a big survey of Scottish voting intention and attitudes (thank you DT!), but they have actually allowed YouGov to publish the full data sheets on the same day as the newspaper article is published, ie. today (an even bigger thank you DT!!)
It makes rather unpleasant reading for Gordon Brown and Wendy Alexander (triple thank yous DT!!!)… and is none too pleasant for Nick Clegg or Nicol Stephen either…
YouGov/Daily Telegraph
Sample size: 1176
Fieldwork: 24-28 April 2008
Westminster voting intention
(% change UK GE 2005)
1. Lab 34% (-5%)
2. SNP 30% (+12%)
3. Con 17% (+1%)
4. LD 14% (-11%)
oth 7%
(Note: that “Others” figure looks far too big. Greens? BNP? UKIP? recovering far-left?)
Electoral Calculus (Martin Baxter) Westminster seat claculator:
1. Lab 37 seats (-3 seats)
2. LD 10 seats (-1)
3. SNP 9 seats (+3)
4. Con 2 seats (+1)
5. Speaker 1 seat (n/c)
Holyrood voting intention - Constituencies (FPTP)
(% change Scottish GE 2007)
1. SNP 36% (+3%)
2. Lab 31% (-1%)
3. LD 15% (-1%)
4. Con 13% (-4%)
oth 4%
Holyrood voting intention - Regions (PR-AMS)
(% change Scottish GE 2007)
1. SNP 37% (+6%)
2. Lab 28% (-1%)
3= Con 13% (-1%)
3= LD 13% (+2%)
oth 9%
Scotland Votes (Weber Shandwick) seat calculator:
1. SNP 50 seats (+3 seats)
2. Lab 43 seats (-3)
3. LD 16 seats (n/c)
4. Con 15 seats (-2)
5. Grn 4 seats (+2)
6. Ind 1 seat (n/c)
Pro-independence parties = 55 seats (50+4+1)
Unionist parties = 74 seats (43+16+15)
(65 seats are needed to form a majority government)
http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/results%2008%2004%2028%20scotland.pdf
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/scotland/1912478/Support-for-Scottish-independence-slumps.html
Good luck everyone. Like Yellow Sub, we’re not counting until Friday. I don’t know how my own ward is going to go and as it’s a Lib Dem / Tory marginal, it doesn’t say much about the overall picture nationally as there’s such a small Labour vote. There has been a lot of dislike or worse towards Brown / Labour, but then that’s perhaps to be expected.
On the London election, Boris looks to be the man to beat - and I really can’t see Ken doing it. Boris has run an effective campaign and surprised a few people by not putting his foot in it. It should be enough to see him over the line with something to spare.
I can see Ken closing the gap on second preferences, but that’s only because I’m expecting a lower share for Ken on first preferences when people are confronted with the ballot paper and reminded they can vote for a minor candidate as well as Ken / Boris. The share for the main two in the polls has been way over that in the last two elections, and while I do think they’ll do better than the Ken+Norris shares, they won’t hit the heights predicted. Most of that shortfall seems likely to come from Ken who has more serious challengers on the left/centre-left than Boris does on the right/centre-right.
Stuart you must be gutted by the slumping support for independence amongst Scots? What is the snp plan when scots themselves reject it? Serious question.
I hope all London pb-ers will post updates today!
5. test - “What is the snp plan when scots themselves reject it?”
Test, I will be an extraordinarily happy man if Scots are ever even asked the bloomin question in the first place!! Let alone whether they end up saying ‘Yes’ or ‘No’.
In that respect this YouGov poll is absolutely wonderful for the Scottish National Party, because it lulls (or more accurately “hopefully lulls”) our Unionist opponents into a false sense of security: they will be increasingly tempted to “call the SNP’s bluff” and support a Scottish independence referendum. IMHO they would be absolutely nuts to do so, but if we get a few more polls purporting (utterly bogusly IMHO) to show support for independence to be below the 20% mark, then the siren voices within all 3 Unionist parties calling for a Scottish independence referendum to be held will grow much, much stronger. Oh happy days!!
Test, what you must understand is that it is one step at a time on the road to re-born Scottish sovereignty. Rigged poll questions are neither here nor there, in the big picture. We in the SNP are very, very firmly focussed on 2 very concrete goals at the moment:
1. Winning the Euros next year, and winning them good
2. Getting the Scottish independence referendum 2010 Bill through parliament
In terms of those 2 goals, todays YG/DT poll could hardly conceivably be better for us! The DT may think that they were being ‘clever’ with the way they worded those questions. Indeed: too ‘clever’ by half
I understand MORI still reckon it’s Ken after second preferences so let’s wait and see! Nonetheless best of luck to all on PB. Fortunately I’m out of the country so will miss the Boris gloat (if it happens!).
fair enough Stuart, so your answer is that you dont. Believe the poll. But if. You have a referendum
And scots say no, what is snp policy then? Excuse phone typing on the go
The radio said it was raining in London today. Lower turnout = better for Boris. What’s the weather looking like Londoners?
9. Bloody lovely at the moment - but my jeans and jacket are still soaked through from last night. Damn it!
Good luck everybody.
For one, I have 2K CAD$ exposed on a Boris’ win,– for a 1345$ of potential profit.
I don’t think I’m gonna fold–or buy any insurance what-so-ever.
If Boris DOES IT, I’m gonna put all my profits on Clinton.Winning.Indiana at 1.3.
Go–Boris, Go!
8. test
Yeah, you just gotta love blogging on those mobile phones… not.
To answer your question: unsurprisingly, the Scottish National Party do not have a “policy” on that topic. Your question is really just idle speculation, because you would really need to get through rather a large number of “ifs” before that question could be put.
We, in common with the vast majority of Scots (over 80% last time it was asked, if I recall correctly) simply want to see a referendum held. Then, the fate of Scotland will be in Scots hands. I trust my fellow countrymen to make a wise decision, and as a democrat I will respect their decision. But you can rest assured, if Scots said ‘No’ that does not mean that suddenly I, or my party, would stop campaigning for independence. We would not simply melt away like snow off an April dyke.
BAD TRIP IN NORTH CAROLINA?
Insider Advantage 04/29 - 04/29 571 LV 42 44 Clinton +2.0
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html
Right, the troops are assembling, so I’m off out.
Good luck all.
Three days ago (prior to the YouGov poll published that day - 28 April) Spreadfair were at:
Boris 18.2 - 19.4
Ken 15.8 - 17.0
Brian 0.2 - 0.4
As I write, Spreadfair is at:
Boris 19.8 - 21.2
Ken 13.4 - 14.8
Brian zero - 0.2
And the next UK GE seat spreads are currently at:
(seats won by party at UK GE 2005)
Con 324.0 - 324.5 (198 seats)
Lab 260.5 - 261.0 (356 seats)
LD 42.1 - 48.0 (62 seats)
SNP 8.5 - 13.0 (6 seats)
PC 3.0 - 4.0 (3 seats)
There will be 650 seats in the next House of Commons. Therefore 326 seats are required to form a majority government. ie. the spreadbetting markets are still predicting a hung parliament, with the Tories the largest party.
http://www.spreadfair.com/
Just want to thank Mike for an outstanding site in the run up to these elections. Thread leaders have been superb, and although some of the party followers get heated in discussions this remains my favourite political website.
Excellent: thank you Mike and anyone else involved.
13. Insider Advantage did that in Alabama, too. They’re form the South, but they’re terrible at polling it; they have fewer black voters (by %) in the Democratic primary than turned out in the general election in 2004, and have them going only 64% for Obama. Not happening. (Readjusting the numbers to 30% black, 90% for Obama gives Obama a healthy 10-point lead.)
3. I suspect, don’t know, but suspect that the decline in Lib Dem voting intention in Scotland is “normal” in that many, many voters in traditional Liberal areas in northern Scotland won’t say that they are voting Lib Dem but do end up voting for their popular incumbent MP. I’d like to see a breakdown of the pre-2005 polls to be more certain on that, though.
17 - Eh? You could adjust any poll like that. What’s the point polling if you are going to ignore what it says?
However, I don’t believe Clinton is in front in NC. If she is I will stop trying to work out what the hell is going on in the US.
First election in many many years when I’ve not been on the doorstep in one guise or another - feels quite strange (and a bit guilty).
Good luck to all peebies out on the stump today (even those not wearing blue rosettes).
My dramatic prediction for the day is that Labour lose overall control of Flintshire, but remain largest party. Hardly a stunning prediction I know, but one that will be satisfying nevertheless.
Meanwhile, the raving Grauniadiatas are approaching nervous breakdown:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/01/boris.livingstone
However will they cope, poor things?
Go Bozzer - I got on at 3.3 back in December…
16 hear hear.
thanks Stuart.
The headline is slightly wrong …. Apparently the rumour for the Sunday papers is :
“The Money Pours On Boris Piles”
I too look forward to hearing ‘on-the-ground’ reports from pb’ers in Wales, the areas of England holding local elections, and if any hardy souls are working at the 2 Scottish by elections being held today (Abbey in Dumfries & Galloway, and Troup in Aberdeenshire - Marcia? ChrisD? anyone?)
Here is the YouGov/Daily Telegraph finding that will cause the most winces at Downing Street, John Smith House and Clifton Terrace:
Approval ratings
Net (gross plus and minus ratings)
1. Annabel Goldie +21% (+41% -20%)
2. Alex Salmond +20% (+53% -33%)
3. John Swinney +12% (+34% -22%)
4. Nicol Stephen -1 (+27 -28)
5. Gordon Brown -37% (+26% -63%)
6. Wendy Alexander -39% (+21% -60%)
How on earth did Wendy Alexander manage to be even more unpopular than her boss? That is some achievement
And Scotland’s First Minister is a clear winner over the UK Prime Minister in terms of winning the hearts and minds of Scottish voters.
The large number of respondents who either did not know, or did not care, who these senior politicians are should give pause for thought for some egos:
“Don’t know” (presumably including “don’t care” and “who?”):
1. Nicol Stephen 45%
2. John Swinney 44%
3. Annabel Goldie 39%
4. Wendy Alexander 20%
5. Alex Salmond 14%
6. Gordon Brown 11%
The two ‘David Cameron’ questions are worded differently from all the other individual politicians, so are not directly comparible. However, a whopping 73% said that “the fact that Mr Cameron is now leader of the UK Conservative Party” will not make any difference whatsoever to how they vote at the next Westminster election. And, unsurprisingly, 83% said that the fact that Cameron is now the UK Tory leader would not alter their vote at the next Holyrood election. In other words: David Cameron simply does not matter in Scottish politics. To the very few voters for whom he does matter, he is actually a clear turn-off. What a contrast to England!!
As Robbie Dinwoodie of The Herald says:
- “… the bad news for the Tories is that the Cameron revival is having no impact north of the Border.”
Indeed.
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2238316.0.Salmond_dismissive_as_poll_shows_only_19_favour_independence.php
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Poll-says-support-for-Scots.4033511.jp
Boris down to below 1.3 on Betfair now…
I’m off to work!!
Well I know it is early but it is starting to rain and the polling station was like a ghost town.
I’m in Lewisham and Greenwich by the way.
If Ken’s reliant on massive inner London turnout I reckon he’s knackered.
2004 was a fabulous day and the European elections and Kilroy had captured the imagination. I reckon turnout will be up on that by only a point or two.
26 - Well unless there have been postal votes galore…
Zoe Williams and other Londoners imagine what it would be like if this bigoted, lying, Old Etonian buffoon got his hands on our diverse and liberal capital [article heading in Guardian]. see 20 above
Hell! The poor old Graun has lost all pretence of balance - it’s now merely the political wing of the Provisional BBC.
20 - Bloody hell, they’ve all gone mad. Guardian readers will be really scared of Gordon Brown’s legacy of a 100 seat Tory majority then!
They really think Boris is evil don’t they!
17 Mike (NJ). What did you make of the new Monmouth NJ poll from yesterday ?
18. Because IA is violating, well, reality. Black voters will not break less than 90% for Obama; they were 92% for him in Pennsylvania, the strongest yet. And their weighting by race was clearly incorrect; it would be like releasing a UK-wide poll that suggested 40% of voters would be of Asian descent. Labour might lead by 10%, but the poll would be blatantly false.
I wouldn’t make the argument if it weren’t for the fact that InsiderAdvantage has had this problem in every Southern state they’ve polled. They come up with few black voters and abnormally large Clinton numbers among said black voters. (IA: O+6, result: O+25 in Mississippi; IA: O+2, result: O+15 in Alabama; IA: O+16, result: O+35 in Georgia; IA: O+10, result: O+27 in South Carolina; IA: O+15, result: O+28 in Virginia.)
28 - The Guardian and Evening Standard have been engaged in a battle to see which can be the most ridiculous biased paper in Britain. They are doing a good job of making other papers seem jolly sensible and balanced.
30. Monmouth is a terrible polling outfit not worth looking at. I wouldn’t take any meaning from it.
The guardian appear to be under going some form of mass hysteria!
But today is going to be a long day for all pbers, so have plenty of food and drink!!
And don’t forget to VOTE.
It is worth noting that, according to the Daily Telegraph article, the infamous (LibDem-loving) psephologist Professor John Curtice, of the University of Strathclyde (my alma mater), calculates a slightly different Scottish Parliament seat distribution than the one I got from the ‘Scotland Votes’ seat calculator:
- “… SNP winning 51 seats, an increase of four, Labour dropping one to 45, the Tories and Lib Dems both getting 16 and the Greens a single MSP.”
I suppose it depends very heavily on how you guess/estimate Green support in the Regional vote. The Tories especially are very vulnerable to losing MSPs if their was a Green surge.
http://www.scotlandvotes.com/
Fair enough, Mike.
I don’t normally repost things but this was posted by me just before midnight so people not around outside working hours might not have seen it. It is a message for the natural Tory voters on PB.
*Posted in response to Emily from the BNP saying ’sensible’ Tories were voting BNP to keep out the leties*
200 - Must switched on Tory voters realise there is no point voting Tory on the list so will vote for one of the other parties to keep the ‘patriots’ out of City Hall.
I know for most people here this is teaching grandma to suck eggs but some people might not have understood it yet. Certainly the voting figures last time proved it had most people baffled.
People who are voting Tory for constituency seats in the London Assembly should make sure that they vote for another party in the London List system or you are essentially wasting a vote.
The d’Hondt system of allocating top-up seats means any Tory list vote will be wasted as there is no way the Tories will win any top up seats (We’ll probably win all but 2/3 constituency seats) so vote for one of the other parties.
Labour, Lib Dems, UKIP, Greens all won seats last time and it kept out the real nutters (UKIP and Greens mean well I’m sure).
Polls suggest that most people don’t understand the d’Hondt system and there were only about 30,000 Tories last time who didn’t waste their vote and made the sensible switch.
I’m not a supporter of any of the other parties as you all know but I will definitely not be voting Tory on the list.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D‘Hondt_method
This is a party political broadcast for the keep nutcases out of City Hall party.
Just laughing (in admiration) at the Boris quotes in the Guardian report, not sure that was the intended effect! I’d forgotten how funny the man is.
20-28-29 I bet Penguin Worsthorne is really proud of being up there with the big boy commentators, like Ty the hip hop artist.
Obama.Candidate is at 1.39 on betfair.com
This is value!
But wait: it might go higher after the 6 may…
David [36] out of curiosity - who will you vote for on the list?
London with its different election systems, oyster cards (how do they work?) is becoming a foreign country.
Just crossing into north London (Hendon) on the train, and the sun’s come out.
36 - I’ve already voted. I voted for Boris, our local Tory Assembly candidate and for the Liberal Democrats on the list.
Oyster cards are just pre paid travel cards. Much handier than the paper tickets.
Competition Predictions
Morning all - good luck to everyone involved today - how many people are standing apart from David Herdson?
The predictions are as follows - thanks & good luck to everyone who entered.
51 entries
1st preference averages:
Boris 39.22
Ken 35.97
Paddick 12.15
Greens 3.79
BNP 3.66
UKIP 2.37
Left List 1.41
1st preference leader splits 43-8 for Boris
Final result averages
Boris 51.72
Ken 48.28
Overall winner splits Boris 35 Ken 16
If anyone wants a copy of the full set of predictions, please drop me a line at pbpredcomp@yahoo.co.uk or electiongame@yahoo.co.uk
17. Mike (New Jersey) - “I suspect, don’t know, but suspect that the decline in Lib Dem voting intention in Scotland is “normal” in that many, many voters in traditional Liberal areas in northern Scotland won’t say that they are voting Lib Dem but do end up voting for their popular incumbent MP.”
Mmmm… I am afraid that the most recent actual crosses on real ballot papers do not support that theory Mike:
At the Scottish Parliament election in May 2007, here were the results in the constituencies the Liberal Democrats had an incumbent:
- Aberdeen South (Nicol Stephen’s seat): SNP win regional vote (Lib Dems slump to 22%)
- Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine: SNP win regional vote (Lib Dems: 25%)
- Argyll & Bute: SNP gain both the constituency and the regional vote (Lib Dems get only 18%!)
- Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross: SNP win regional vote (Lib Dems: 24%)
- Edinburgh South: Labour win regional vote (Lib Dems in 3rd place on 18%, behind the SNP)
- Edinburgh West: Lib Dems win both votes, but get only 24% in the regional vote
- Fife North East: Lib Dems win both votes, but get only 31% in the regional vote
- Gordon: SNP gain both the constituency and the regional vote (Lib Dems: 28%)
- Orkney: Lib Dems win both votes, but get only 32% in the regional vote
- Ross, Skye & Inverness West: SNP win regional vote (Lib Dems: 25%)
- Roxburgh & Berwickshire: Conservatives gain both the constituency and the regional vote (Lib Dems: 23%)
- Shetland: Lib Dems win both votes, but get only 36% in the regional vote
- Tweedale, Ettrick & Lauderdale: SNP win regional vote (Lib Dems: 25%)
In summary: immovable Lib Dem incumbency in Scotland is a myth. Or if not a myth, then at least ancient history.
In addition to appalling opinion polling results for the Scottish Lib Dems, which date way back to early 2006 when they kicked Charlie Kennedy out, they have had some really dire local by election results too. As Mark Senior loves to say: those are “real votes”. Indeed. Real votes against Labour’s lap-dogs: the Scottish Lib Dems.
Thanks David.
First report from Cllr Ruth Bennett at Princess Plain Polling Station in new very safe Tory Beckenham constituency at 7.45am.
“Voters queing up to vote at Princess Plain Polling Station on their way to work”.
I have just done the first hours telling at a polling station in Outer London(Sutton) and in the last 30 mins voting became very brisk.
Will update more as day goes on.
Good morning all from sunny Swansea!
Beautiful start to the day here, sunny if a little chilly. I voted at 7am in the Cockett ward for my 4 Labour candidates (who will do well against their PLaid incumbents I feel). But let’s see. One gripe - the polling station was manned in the usual inept fashion. I was outside at 6:58am and was told to wait a few minutes - I was early. Me and two others then waited and waited until one of us just went in and was greeted by a “good morning”. If one of us hadn’t made a move we would still be waiting outside! They were still faffing about with pens and rulers at 7:10am!!!
Anyway, good luck all. Good luck Swansea Labour and good luck Ken (for all the good it will do you!) Especially good luck to my cousin Andrea Williams who is standing for Tredegar Community Council (Labour, natch). Let’s hope Blaenau Gwent see sense and keeps the so-called “People’s Voice” obstructionists off the council! I know I’m biased
31
Thank you, Mike NJ.
I was anxious about it ’cause I have 2K (already!) on Obama.Win.NC at 1.14…
It was a compulsive bet; I was SO sure he going to nail it stresslessly…
Fairly quiet here in the hills of N. London. Me +1 in the polling station, GE’s are busier than this normally. Dark clouds rolling across St Pancras ready to rain on The Newt Parade.
20. Good lord that’s hysterical, it’s almost as bad as being on the picket lines in 1984, just substitute Maggie for Boris. Most of the celebrities I’ve never heard of, and those I have heard of I wouldn’t trust to tell me how to vote. I wouldn’t trust that they knew how. If Boris win’s god knows what the guardian will do, the collective wailing and doom laden predictions will melt the walls.
anyone in inner London?
David roe, excellent post. Let’s vote tactically and keep the bnp out.
Hilarious pastiche of po faced, whining, self important Lefties in the Guardian with a kind of hysterical primal scream. I want to say to the awful Zoe Williams “do calm down love, it’s only an election”!
The words “self-important” and “Stewart Jackson MP” have never been seen in the same sentence, of course. And, having heard him speak, I reckon he should be careful of describing other people as “whining”.
Re 44:
I note that the SNP’s own analysis of the local government by-elections held since May 2007 in Scotland shows that the Lib Dems would gain 5 extra MSPs on the basis of the “real votes” cast. That is bigger growth thean the SNP and rather contradicts Stuart’s view on the council results.
The Guardian piece is remarkable both for its vitriol, inaccuracy and how many on the Luvvie State payroll surprisingly support the party who pays their bills.
20 One of the funniest columns I’ve read in the Guardian.
A bit concerned about the implied threat to us non-Londoners about a mass migration of Borisphobic “celebrities” and media folk to our green and pleasant land. Couldn’t they all go to Paris instead?
Just looked at the BBC website map of where is actually voting today. There is such a massive chunk of England not going to the polls, and a bias towards the North and Midlands, I question how any meaningful projection can be made from the results.
They don’t look like areas that are going to support a Tory projected share of 40% or more to me.
57 Or Harare, even better, where they can support the real thing in ZanuPF.
Bob S That is why the Labour party have been spinning that Tories should win 200 seats so they can then say the Tories did badly only winning 50 or 100.
Most of these areas with elections are Labour strongholds so any gains will be significant, larger gains catastrophic for The Dour One.
Keep managing expectations Bob!
It’s not going well here in City and East - despite having received a polling card I have been removed without my consent from the electoral roll.
By the looks of the register there are a number of other late removals.
The central polling people appear to be inundated with calls - in any event they have taken 30 minutes to get back to our polling station officers and they still have no idea what has happened, why I have been removed or what it means in terms of my entitlement to vote.
I am currenty pacing the sports hall of a local primary school. Good exercise at least.
A recount for London Mayor??
Quote from Professor of Government at London School of Economics!!
He calls it right when he says “If Ken Livingston loses that’s very bad news for Labour and Gordon Brown”
May 1 (Bloomberg) — Londoners go to the polls today to choose their next mayor, with the race between incumbent Ken Livingstone and challenger Boris Johnson the closest since the post was created eight years ago.
The Labour Party’s Livingstone, mayor since 2000, and the Conservative Party’s Johnson, a member of Parliament, have battled over violent crime and how to improve public transportation. The London vote, along with local races today in England and Wales, “are the first electoral test for Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown, whose popularity is slumping.
“If Ken Livingstone loses, that’s very bad news for Labour and Gordon Brown,” said Patrick Dunleavy, professor of government at the London School of Economics. The race is so close that a recount “is a very real possibility.”
A lot of people queuing up to poll in London Zone 3 - looks good for Livingstone.
Of course, Bob, this is why people like Icarus are also spinning that the Tories MUST win in C and N or lose all credibility.
65 - Well, I would say they really *do* have to win C&N.
64 Ah, but wait until the blue rinsers come out after morning coffee at 11.
53. You have to admit they’ve all got a point when they say that BoJo may well be useless. Or worse.
It’s almost a done deal and as I’ve said before if boris wins I win. But in a wider sense, and much more importantly, London loses. Probably, possibly, maybe not: who knows? It’s just an enormous gamble. A gamble on a metropolitan scale.
There’s a good reason Cameron didn’t put Boris in the cabinet despite their friendship and his conviviality and personal appeal. He thought Boris would embarrass him, that he didn’t have the necessary quality. I don’t remember anyone here who disagreed with this.
From next week he’s going to have control of a greater budget than any other Conservative politician in the country. It appears that the Tories may be cruising to victory on a national scale - good luck, we need a change - and clearly Boris won’t significantly affect that. But CCO will not relish having to fight the fires that he is bound to light.
65 yes, that Dunfermline triumph really set the stage for massive LD advances nationally, didn’t it?
RedFlump of course you do. What else? Repeat what the head of the Fabians is saying about Brown, or what Ladyman has said about the spiraling infighting in Labour ranks?
68, I disagree with part of your assessment. They put him up as London mayoral candidate because the role is both prominent and also semi-detached from party politics, meaning any gaffes reflect only slightly, if at all, on the Conservatives.
If they didn’t want him to win they wouldn’t've put him up for it.
James F was the reason Blair didn’t put Livingstone in the cabinet because he was a joke? If true for one it must be true for the other, and Boris has never stood against his party’s candidate.
24)Troup in Aberdeenshire unlikely to go anywhere but SNP. At last election the SNP councillor who died took over 47% of the votes, nearly double nearest competitor(Tory).
Troup which is in Alex Salmond’s Westminster constituency, Banff and Buchan (but not his Scottish Parliament seat)is mainly rural but does include Macduff which is now suffering very hard from the loss of the fishing industry but still, despite this, has a traditianal boat builders business.
Troup also contains the village of Pennan made famous by the Local Hero film.
Of course, it may also be possible, that the ratings for Ms Goldie may translate into a shock victory for the Conservatives.
http://www.alba.org.uk/localby/troup.html
http://www.aberdeenshire.gov.uk/news/release.asp?newsID=703
68 - It was said that the campaign would be a gaffe-a-minute from Boris, it wasn’t. Now it’s oh but he will royally screw up. What will it be in six months when he hasn’t screwed up?
Spreadfair GE seats
Cons. 324-324.5
74. Indeed…the shifting spin lines are looking pretty desperate
74 in six months it will be Boris will never get re-elected.
What will it be in his second term?
Hi Witan - yes, all is clearly not sweetness and light in the Labour party at the moment. I’m afraid the same people who thought Gordon walked on water last year (and in fact some of the same people who were ramping up expectations of an early election) are now on his back. Oh well, twas ever thus. If Cameron ever does get to be PM, he will be knifed too, one day.
But I still think the Tories should win C&N.
72. Witan. Fair point. Boris IS in a position to do surprising credit to his party. That’s the flip-side of my rather negative view of the gamble.
74. He’s been tightly controlled. If in practice I think he’s good, I’ll say so. But I don’t expect it in advance.
76. The fact that I disagree with you means by definition that I’m spinning? Nonsense. And if you don’t realise it you’re a fool.
55. Malcolm Cole - “I note that the SNP’s own analysis of the local government by-elections held since May 2007 in Scotland shows that the Lib Dems would gain 5 extra MSPs on the basis of the “real votes” cast. That is bigger growth thean the SNP and rather contradicts Stuart’s view on the council results.”
A Lib Dem staffer who not only reads the SNP’s press releases, but files them for future use in blog posts. Not even I am that sad
OK Malcolm, here are the plain facts (no SNP “analysis” is required):
local government by-elections held since May 2007 in Scotland
- Midsocket/Rosemount (Aberdeen) 16 th August 2007 - LD 3rd place on 23% (+1%)
- Helensburgh & Lomond South (Argyll & Bute) 4 th October 2007 - LD gain from Ind - LD 30% (-2%)
- Lochee (Dundee) 22 nd November 2007 - LD 3rd place on 11% (+4%)
- Kilsyth (North Lanarkshire) 31 st January 2008 - LD 6th place on 0.58%(!)
- Elgin City South (Moray) 14 th February 2008 - LD 6th place on 2.3%
- Highland (Perth & Kinross) 21 st February 2008 - LD 3rd place on 7% (-6%)
- Cambuslang East (South Lanarkshire) 6 th March 2008 - LD 3rd place on 22% (+8%)
Now, I think that it is only fair comment for me to describe some of those results as “dire”. Eg 0.58% of the vote must surely be a bit of a record?!?
If you are willing to predict that the Lib Dems are going to gain 5 MSPs based on those results, then you are a brave man!
78 Politicians, RedFlump, all carry a lode stone of hubris and nemisis.
The trick is to avoid becoming a joke before the inevitable happens.
It would be humane to insist that there are fixed terms for the more important jobs of PM, Mayor etc so we do not have the excruciating experience of watching once effective politicians crumble to dust.
It will happen to Cameron, but only in his sixth term as PM of course.
re 62. Flockers - which borough are you in?
43 Many thanks Paul. With PBers collectively deciding that Boris is set to win by just 3.44%, an exciting contest looks assured.
81 - I agree with you about fixed terms, Witan. After about 8 years as PM, the tends to go, well, a bit barmy frankly. Either that or so removed from reality they alienate the people they are trying to reach.
We should have 4 year fixed terms - and maybe two terms as PM max.
O/T Joe Andrew, an Indiana Superdelegate, has switched alliegance from Clinton to Obama. His argument is that Hillary is simply prolonging the pain for the Democratic Party - and the only winner is McCain. Urging Indiana to tie up the contest next Tuesday.
Just off to do a stint near York.
We are fighting a safe sitting Lib Dem and hope to improve on previous years. Unfortunately, its a new area for us thanks to boundary changes.
We have also got a battle on our hands keeping a former Lib Dem seat [also new to us] which was taken by a great local fella who held it for us, but has stepped down.
Apologies if this has already been picke dup but Iain Dale has the following nugget:
“I’m also told that in one North London Borough (electoral law prevents me from telling you which one), at the opening of postal votes, Boris was on 69%. In 2004 at the opening of postal votes Steve Norris was in the mid 40s. Very encouraging.”
Voting in shoreditch (labour ward HBC) painfully slow. voted at 7.55 and was only 15th person to vote. station was empty. Good news for boris
Perhaps the Gruaniad crowd might need to remember that Boris unlike Brown may actually win a contested election.
Notice on ITV teletext Brown is described as ‘neurotic’, after tonight’s results different adjectives, and nouns may be freely applied.
if Livingstone were to win today it would be a tragedy for the man himself.
His third term would be an inevitable disappointment as all the trends we see now - corruption, bullying, cronyism, egotism,vanity publications, global ambition, budget laxity, social divisivenes- would grow and the slow, painful collapse would do London no favours, Labour no favours nor even Ken any favours.
It would be toe curling tragicomedy.
If he loses now he can blame YouGov and Brown and seek a seat in Parliament and continue his career there as a lefty pensioners champion and critic of the regime at city hall and the powers of the assembly.
Stuart Dickson peddling his selective anti LibDem statistics again . Note Stuart Comres Scottish subsample had LibDems on 22% and Mori subsample at 18% .
87 Mark - yes, very encouraging for Boris, but pretty meaningless if the numbers were very small.
16. Hear. Hear.
20. Nastier than Boris is and they can’t see the irony.
21. Well done you.
32. David.
I hope its a battle the Standard wins. Good man for voting. I thought you were unsure of your registartion postion. Glad its OK. And more in hope than expectation, LEEDS LEEDS LEEDS!
On the expectations game, Newsnight got it right for Labour. Bearing in mind they ditched Blair because he was an electoral liability and these elections are in Labour heartlands, last contested when he was at his lowest ebb, they ought to do alot better. Well will see.
One final note, in the interests of peebee solidarity [and bank balances and in some cases marriages] you should all go to the polls right now and vote BORIS! But no pressure.
82 - Mike - Tower Hamlets.
Matter now resolved and I have voted. Clearly unacceptable though and I will be following up - I think a lot of voters would not have waited and their votes would be lost.
I can’t see why C and N is held up as some kind of post local election barometer of ‘how the Tories are doing’. Every LD in the UK will be down there doing a Romsey on it; Labour will pull every trick in the book, and that is aside from the fact that there will undoubtedly be a ‘tribute’vote to Mrs Dunwoody.(Even more so if her daughter stands.)
91. Funny how those subsamples are always dismissed as meaningless if they are bad for the Lib Dems, but somehow gain importance if they are favourable.
91. SNP are a named party in the Scotland-only polls, but not in the sub-samples, so you would expect that.
52-whilst i would not vote for the bnp-you appear happy to see the country overrun by immigrants!!!!
97 That statement is false .
Flockers have already sent your post to Electoral Commission - for all the good it will do.
Anyone with Postal votes/registration problems - Think you have to bombard the EC until they start earning their money and do something.
Was at a meeting in London yesterday and the level of excitment about the election was much lower that on this board. I cannot see with the grey weather getting the turnouts suggested by some polls. This is probably good for Boris but we will see.
As a Scottish Tory I think we have flipped from a party which is stronger than its voter base to a voter base which is stronger than its party. If only we could get 10% of the party workers that Boris has access to the impact would be significant.
The SNP continue to bleat on about their referendum but I just dont see any demand for it. Generally the Scots are happy with Alex but don’t want to give him total control of their lives.
PS Good luck Bojo
87. That’s very interesting, if it’s accurate. Obviously good for Boris, but if the Tories are piling up votes in areas they are already strong, it’s not quite such good news, seat-wise, for the general election.
99. You mean the UK-wide pollsters ask “Are you voting Labour, Conservative, SNP, Lib Dem or some other party?” really??
99 You’re going to have a good night in Newport and Cardiff. You are so close to a majority in Cardiff but I think you may do it just. As mentioned the Tories will do well, but the shocker is the BBC’s man saying Labour could come third! They had a majority on the Council four years ago. At that rate even Cardiff West and South come into view.
95 The ‘tribute to Dunwoody’ factor probably means whatever swing there is to the Tories,they could reasonably argue it would have been larger in another constituency whose ex-MP was not so highly regarded
We’re not counting down West till tomorrrow.Thanks for the good wishes Mike et al.I will need it!
At least sun is shining. Hopefully that will be a good omen.
103 Yes .
Don’t you just love the rage and vitriol from The Guardian? They are making fools of themselves now….
Mind if you think this is bad, just wait until general election day 2010, when the British public are turning out to vote Cameron into Downing St. I think the Guardianistas will self combust!
OK - So am now in the office having voted this morning - Lambeth, Zone 2. Briskish trade at the polling booths when my wife and I were there at about 8:05 - similar to GE from recollection, but it is only a 5min period, and I think we were earlier than normal.
109 - Very good news for Livingstone. Is Livingstone going to more than scrape home
Patrick The circumstances and the regard that GD was held in the constituency are two of the main reasons why I don’t think this is a comparable test of the Tory vote we might expect in a general election, and why I doubt it can be won.
I am sure the majority will be slashed, even to a paper thin number, but the seat lies well outside the ‘marginals’ needed to form a Tory government with a solid majority, and with the local factors it seems odd for Tory and other posters to see it as a must win seat.
107. From the Comres website:
Q.2 If there were a general election tomorrow, would you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or some other party?
Base: All respondents saying 5-10 likely to vote.
Glad that one’s cleared up.
110. Are we going to have to put up with this ludicrous kind of post all day?
113 - More than today - until I hear the results!
How the Daily Mash see the locals.
http://tinyurl.com/6zxlnc
108
Mind if you think this is bad, just wait until general election day 2010, when the British public are turning out to vote Cameron into Downing St. I think the Guardianistas will self combust!
I don’t know why? Cameron has always had more support from the Guardian than the Telegraph/Mail, its Heffer/Hitchens etc who will self combust, when Cameron walks into Downing street.
p.s. noted that amongst those quoted in the comments to the Guardian article, the most critical of Boris was that well known lefty Worsthorne.
108. That Grauniad piece was desperate desperate stuff….also I am not entirely sure of the point of it..the very few people who read the Guardian in London are not exactly Boris’s natural constituency anyway so it can only be a GOTV strategy for the sandal wearing, champagne sipping wastes of space that are London liberals.
It was laugh out loud funny but I bloody well hope that all those “important” contributors to society such as the second rate actors, writers, comedians and disabled outreach officers follow through with their promise and leave…in true Boris style may I suggest that Liverpoool would be an appropriate bolt hole for the wastrals. They deserve each other.
That Guardian article is truly pathetic, man I hope Boris wins!
112 That is not the exact wording they ask .
What are the rules on campaigning on election day? Only there were people leafleting for the Greens and Left List at my tube station this morning - I thought there was a moratorium on this sort of thing?
No elections round here today but I can confirm that 99.99% of the rural Cotswolds is rooting for Boris and eager to see loathsome Livingslime and odious Brown given a blo0dy good kicking.
Boris to win by at least 4% IMO
Good luck to all parties, except loathsome, lying, lunatic Liebour, of course!!
ps United to stuff Chelski in Moscow 2-1
118. Which is? ….
Shift starting?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080501/ap_on_el_pr/superdelegates
Sheesh, I thought we were all getting along just fine, then some silly boy posts #120. Why can’t we just agree to disagree? Why are some people determined to name-call all the time? On today of all days, can’t we just wish each other the best and see what happens?
123. Don’t be so silly.
Yeah well, I’m an eternal optimist
Voted this morning in Harringey & Enfield ward @ 7.45am. New voting place for me so no comparison comments to last time although there were just 3 or so people voting at the same time as myself and Mrs. Political Capital. The only GOTV present was Lib Dem.
The comments from that assorted bunch of nomarks, foreigners, and freeloaders in the Guardian makes me wish I’d upped sticks and gone to live in London just so I could have voted for Boris.
What a desperate, whinging, and snivelling bunch of sanctimonious hypocrites they are now that their great benefactor and protecter is facing defeat.
Time to clean out the Augean stables methinks!
123 No! Time to go for you boys I’m afraid.
123 “Why are some people determined to name-call all the time? ”
Not like your Ken-supporting pals in today’s Guardian eh, redflump?
Oh dear. Three posts in a row. It’s time I took the dogs for a walk!
Global warming delayed or derailed?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/04/30/eaclimate130.xml
First, good luck to all Peebies who are standing as candidates to-day.
[52][98] AFAIK, it isn’t possible to vote tactically against the BNP - or any other Party - in the list section of the GLA. And it isn’t necessary in the case of the Mayoralty or the constituency sections (Barking and Havering are, fortuitously, in different seats).
Despite the “wisdom of crowds” I still think Boris will get a landslide. Last time constituency turnout varied between 34% (North-east) and 41% (Bexley/Bromley) - I expect that gap to at least double this time - figures of 25% and 45% for those two seats seem quite plausible to me, and this will do it for the Blob.
Mike S. Any news on Boris’s piles ??
Good luck to the PB candidates today …. especially my esteemed protege in Hersham !!
…………………………
Two overnight national US polls not noted that I’m aware of :
New CBS/NYTimes Presidential and Primary Polls :
McCain 43% .. Clinton 48%
McCain 45% .. Obama 45%
Clinton 38% .. Obama 46%
………………….
New NBC/WSJ Presidential and Priamry Polls :
McCain 44% .. Clinton 45%
McCain 43% .. Obama 46%
Clinton 43% .. Obama 46%
………………….
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/apr08b_demrace.pdf
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/080430_NBC-WSJ_Released.pdf
The Guardian has a readership of less than 3% of the electorate and half of that readership only buy it for the adverts (the most interesting bit). Of the other half, probably 60% will glance at the piece and pass over it. That leaves less than one half of one per cent of the electorate who might have been influenced by it one way or the other.
In London, there are probably more people reading it as a result of the link from this site than paying subscribers!
Latest Betfair prices please gentlemen…..?
Signposted by Guido, this piece of patronising nonsense from Steve Richards is worth reading for comedy value alone:
http://tinyurl.com/5bt27q
Basically if you don’t vote for Ken you’re an idiot. So there.
136. The wailing and gnashing of teeth from the metropolitan left really is very entertaining.
132
I think you could be right,I live opposite a polling station in Beckenham and its been a steady stream of people,my drive keeps on being blocked.
The guardian article is brilliant. what a sad bunch of losers. they will explode when DC wins a 100 seat majority!!!!
I had to queue to vote this morning in Ealing. The ladies in the station said it was busy. Just another Benbobjim anecdote but one that will warm the hearts of those that took Hill’s 11/8 yesterday. I didn’t. Wish I had.
benbobjim are you, like Jack W, a committee?
From these early reports, it doesn’t seem impossible that Ken will get more votes this year than he did in 2004 and still lose by a street!
141. Sad if it takes more than one person to come up with such predictable tripe.
134. But those 3% are the movers, the shakers, the opinion-formers, the trend-setters, the … [contd. page 94]
142. I think that could actually happen.
136
Just the usual Steve Richards leftie drivvel.
Betfair odds on Boris anyone? Rather urgent!!
C’mon - it’ll only take you two seconds to look and post it for me
Voted at 7.15am in Charlton ward of Greenwich Borough (strongly Labour ward) and a surprisingly large number of people had already voted. No GOTV presence at the polling station.
Part of my workplace (a school) has been cordoned off as a polling station - very few people have wandered past my window to vote so far! This is in the Telegraph Hill Ward of Lewisham Borough - very middle-class socialist area.
Read into these what you will!
135. Betfair quiet. £868 1.36
141 Witan. The Jack W Committee for Public Safety is sharpening its blades …. I need a new Madame Defarge, interested ??
http://owlcreek.files.wordpress.com/2007/08/guillotine.jpg
148 - Turnout is much bigger than expected. As previouslys stated, very good for Livingstone.
151 - Until he loses on Round 1…
136 - just an appalling article by a journalist who is usually more interesting. I voted for Boris with pride. If that makes me stupid, so be it.
Quiet in SW14. Just one Lib-Dem teller on the bench outside. Winds light to variable.
Morning! Interesting to see our pb.com Tory comrades are already in fine, bilious voice. Will their dystopian vision unfold for Londoners? We will have to wait and see!
155 - You must be very confindent about Livingstone (especially with this much increased turnout).