A change in posting arrangements
May 2nd, 2008
The ramper/impersonator exposes a vulnerability
Those who were on the site at about 6.30pm last night would have followed the attempt of a ramper to influence the Ken and Boris betting prices by creating exchanges as though they were by regular posters here.
The “dialogue” started with him creating what purported to be a comment by me saying I had information about an exit poll saying things could be quite close. It then went to cover quite a few regular contributors and these looked like genuine posts. There was, of course, no exit poll.
Looking at the Ken and Boris prices during that period it did appear to lead to some laying of the Tory and betting on Ken with the result that the prices moved a bit. Some people commented last night that they had changed positions as a result of what was being said.
To stop this happening again the only posts that will be accepted for instant publication will be from those people that our server recognises as having contributed here before without problem. So the name and the email address must match up with previous posts.
If there is a discrepancy the post will be put into moderation to be approved/rejected when I get round to checking it. I will be giving Paul Maggs the facility to approve/reject such comments as well
Most contributors will find that they will not be affected by the change. If you are please be patient.
We cannot be operating 24/7 and there might be periods where posts by new contributors might be blocked for some time.
The important thing to remember is that one you have had a comment approved then you will be publish instantly provided you operate in a proper manner.
Mike Smithson
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All excellent points Mike and once again thank you for your coverage.
Agree completely about the BBC. Shocker.
How many trusted moderators do you have, Mike?
It should be pretty easy to get close to 24 hour coverage.
BBC: tacky, empty, patronising, silly, vague, vapid and unhelpful.
And that’s before I start on the results programme.
Shame that some idiot has made it harder for the non-regulars to post but a sensible precaution after last evening’s shenanigans.
The BBC needs to stop dumbing down and treat politics seriously, learn from the US stations.
Great night for the blues, the oranges holding their own and the reds suffering badly. A Boris victory though is required for it to be a champagne day and I’m still uncertain there.
Am grateful that I didn’t stay up and instead checked the results this morning.
Many thanks to you (Mike), Robert and Paul for your efforts.
Mike have you got a Paypal account I can contribute to to help cover costs? Although I don’t post frequently these days, and stick to my Centrebet account for punting, I am a regular lurker and am keen to continue supporting the site.
3. Boom boom! When I head home in a few hours I’ll be following UK Sky coverage - is it any good?
So C& N has to be taken by the Conservatives.
Clegg [Radio 4] sounds very positive - best I have heard him since he took over.
9 Well it’s been a pretty good night for the LibDems - most of us would have been expecting reasonable losses but we seem to be small up at the moment. I imagine Nick Clegg was too.
Given we had a pretty high base last time I think LDs can almost be happy.
Onwards and upwards…
Yet again it appears that the Labour pre-election spin operation has failed miserably. 212 seats lost so far. They are repeatedly in the nightmare scenario that the only way they can hope to “under-predict” performance is to make predictions that are too ridiculous to be believed.
And then they still do even worse!
10 - When do you think the LibDems will realise that they’ve got to, as pre-97, un-equivocally hitch themselves to the anti-Labour mast? Mitigate losses to the Conservatives, and piggy back on their advances.
9 Clegg did well I thought - with most results in the LDs are only down one council and might even end up having gained a few councillors.
As Nick Clegg clearly pointed out the situation is more complicated than that. Lib Dems are strong throughout the country Labour and Conservatives are only regional parties.
We are moving into uncharted waters. The beauty of the wonderful electoral system that we, have means that at tipping points 1 or 2% change in vote share can make a massive difference in the numbers of seats won or lost.
13. They could still end up even in councils, too. Purbeck and Milton Keynes are not out of reach for the LDs to gain control.
“A Scotsman survey today reveals the Scottish National Party is winning the battle for the hearts and minds of Scotland’s business community.
… cuts in rates for small businesses and the axing of tolls on the Forth and Tay road bridges have proved popular.
The Scotsman’s poll, of 648 businessmen and women, will put a smile on the First Minister’s face as it found 39 per cent were now more in favour of independence than 12 months ago. And 57.5 per cent of respondents believed the SNP was doing a good or excellent job in power.
The aim of growing Scotland’s economy… has been popular within the business community. Other measures like ending the bridge tolls, bringing in a new qualifications scheme for schools and giving a clear schedule for transport works have pleased the business world.
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/politics/Salmond39s-seduction-wins-over-business.4044220.jp
15. And Sheffield, of course, where the early reports were that the LDs had won overall control but we never got confirmation. I forgot about that.
Good morning all. Managed to stay up until 3am. Has anyone been monitoring the Betfair prices. I see Ken is 5.6. Hoping that price drifts a bit more.
I’d be pretty surprised if we gained Purbeck - but then I was pretty surprised by Cheltenham and Colchester results too.
Re 12 I think the LibDems should continue where they are attacking both other parties. It’s interesting that most Tories perceive us as still fighting them - possibly that is where their sensitivities lie. They seem to somehow not hear our harsh criticism of the government.
The good thing about this strategy is that we don’t have to change it in two years time when Labour lose the GE.
Is there any chance that we could form an all party campaign regarding the dreadful BBC programme last night. I switched on when Vine was auditioning for a part in Annie Get your Gun. How on earth could BBC allow that onscreen.
Election night is also about election results. The programme switched to local correspondents who were interested in gabbing or making stupid points and ignoring the election results.
I gave up after the East Anglia correspondent was incapable of actually saying what was happening at teh Colchester at which he was present and just uttered a lot of drivel about Harlow.
Thank the lord for PBC!
Whilst supporting the need for the site decisions, what will be your approach to “insider tips” - eg those recently from Don for example.
I would guess that the solution would be to allow publication but to add a disclaimer until the poster is established.
Mike, given this was just a local election (albeit with the London mayoral) you might want to make plans for traffic during a GE!
20 - yes, it was dire. Dimbleby is good, but that is about it. I found Emily Maitliss wandering about very strange. Jon Culshaw did not do many impressions and was very dull. At least there was no resident cartoonist as on GE night.
The regional reporters are pointless, interviewing very dull councillors. I know these dull councillors are the real winners and losers on the night, but the focus should be on the numbers alone.
Sheffield will definately go LD.
Looking at the election results in Rotherham and Barnsley Labour might also lose several wards to the BNP in Sheffield.
The Dons of this world surely are not interested in their own Glory. Surely they should send their info to Mike and he can decide what to do with it, respecting their anonymity.
The YouGov 6% Boris lead reported by Mike yesterday, would be a good example of that in action.
I agree about the rubbish BBC election program - anyone watching at 2am is interested in results not stupid graphics. I don’t know about other areas but the local segment in Yorkshire was dredful.
PB.com was much more interesting.
Well, I was wrong about Maidstone, the town of my birth. It went Tory after 25 years of NOC. Labour now on one councillor.
But does it matter in GE terms? Both seats that make up the GE seat are solid Tory…
Thought Clegg was good, and had reason to sound upbeat. And of course he should conrinue to attack Labour and the Tories.
Agree with Peter Golds on the reporting from Colcheser. Pathetic.
Any news on North Tyneside?
Harriet Harman on GMTV has just almost accepted that Ken Livingstone has lost out to Boris Johnson. Penny Smith pushed her hard to say more, but all she would say is that they did not expect the London result to be any different to the rest of the country. Last night the Labour Party tried to spin that the turnout in inner London was as high as outer London. We shall see, but I douobt it.
Well, only just had time to catch up on what’s been going on down here in South Hampshire, seems a mixed bag.
Very surprising the Tories did not do better in Gosport, and Portsmouth was a rather lackluster performance too. Should have taken both.
But Southampton! What a coup! This was almost impossible, surely not 14/16 wards would return Tory? But they did! Tory net gain of 8 seats, one more than they needed for a majority. Absolutely astonishing. First control of this council for a very long time. And very worrying for Denham + Whitehead.
28. Forget attacking the Tories. Concentrate on Labour and you could cement 2nd place in the national vote.
Weather forecast giving signals that it will be neck and neck for Ken and Boris. Attempt at climate change to sunny weather on Saturday should favour Boris but quickly followed by dull murky weather for the rest of the weekend favouring Ken. A recount is on the cards!
Just to echo all the comments about the appalling nature of the BBC coverage.
Telegraph is saying Labour is in 3rd place on 24% of the national vote.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/localelections2008/1919672/Local-elections-2008-Labour-takes-a-local-election-hammering.html
30
Nobody knows yet which turnout–in inner London or in outer London–is the biggest?
Vine was so bad that I switched over to Sky every time he came on.
Here is Nick Clegg’s reaction to the votes.
“Nick Clegg criticises Tory gains”
and Andy Burnham “results send no clear message”
http://www.politicshome.com/#688
Both clearly delusional. Last year we have Rennard trying to talk up 300 losses as a “mixed bag”.
Lesson is that Labour and LD leadership have not grasped the reality of their individual situations.
Labour no longer control a single council in Wales.
Meltdown for them in Flintshire.
Fantastic night across England & Wales for Tories.
And we still have Bozzer in the GLA to relish today. Counting starts in London in circa 30 mins…
Fab night on PBC - thanks again to Paul, Mike & Robert.
Spreadfair.
CONS 326.0-326.5
LAB 252.0-252.5
LD 42.1-48.1
SNP 8.5-13.0
PC 3.0-4.0
Fnally the penny is starting to drop that LAB meltdown could be as dramatic as a CON resurgence.That Buy at 252.5 is very dramatic and very provocative.I can’t see it lasting the morning.
I sometimes wonder whether running lots of councils is good for a party - if you have a small majority you may well be too busy to help take the Parliamentary seat. Does anyone have any evidence that good local government representation will lead to parliamentary representation?
One thing though, if the Conservatives and the Lib Dems had equally benefited from Labour’s meltdown, I would be persuaded that the Government had lost. However given the dramatic increase in Conservative councils and councillors, across the country, appears to show that not only has Labour lost, but the Conservatives have won. Haven’t seen much coverage of that!
Agree about the appalling BBC coverage, but why are we surprised about it? None of us watch BBC anymore unless we have to do we? It’s all rubbish!
38 - Sorry North Wales.
Important correction!
37. Those comments not only sum up the disingenuous nature of Clegg and the Liberal Democrats in general but also shows how hopeless they are. If they want to make any advances at the next election (unlikely) then they need to se Labour as their enemy and not the Conservatives.
What is this obsession with two or three cities in the north? The Conservatives do not need to win these seats in a general election so why should they bother about the councils.
Why does Nick Clegg keep saying they will win seats of the Conservatives in Colchester - has Bob Russell defected?
34,37 (Well just about everybody really!) - Yes, if the BBC keep on going down this route, by the general election we will have Vine and co announcing the results in the form of song.
Just off to the count. Inner London includes Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea, Hammersmith and Fulham (they all voted Norris in 2004) and Wandsworth which almost certainly voted BJ yesterday.
It appears to have been a high poll everywhere.
Perhaps two high profile candidates in a head to head actually galvanises voters
What news of any peebies yeserday? How many new councillors do we have?
Any chance the BNP could be squeezed by the high turnout?
Nick Clegg really isn’t worth listening to. He is full of it. Odd for an ex-Tory.
Well done to the Tories- great results for them. Solid for the LD’s and Clegg. Appalling for Labour- almost impossible to see then finding a way back, even if Brown goes quickly.
What a wretched week I have had. Boris’s coronation later will cap it.
One final point….
Why is Sky reporting -210 Labour seats while BBC are saying -160?
while giving the same Tory gains?
BBC was incredibly bad, they seemed to latch onto a couple of political soundbites and milk them for all their worth. The Calamity Clegg saloon bar thing was just atrocious, then there was the Conservative ‘ascent of man’ which was abysmal, and the ’stalin to Mr. Bean’ thing for Labour was just cliche.
Two thing as I got out of my bed this am.
1.Norman Smith’s [Today Programme] attitude to Crewe and Nantwich. He said t should be a ‘banker for Labour’ but in current circumstances might not be. A different attitude than some expressed on here and a surprisijng attirtiude from the BBC who like to set the Tory bar in the clouds.
2. Repeated comments about the Mayoral tutnout being high. Compared to other Mayorals or compared to the other locals?
Additional point. No 6. Yes. A voluntary contribution or even small sub when you have posted for 6 months or say more than X times in Y period or some such. Mike doesn’t want to discourage new business but those of whose who take alot of enjoyment, should oil the wheels.
Just a diversion United States, a poll against the recent trend
Zogby has Obama 50-34 up in North Carolina and Indiana 42-42, taken 30th April and 1st May.
More recent than others , see what follows with others today taken over the same period.
On the face of this poll Obama has stopped the drift against him.
One final point….(additional)
Ahhhh, good to see some early morning activity at No 10… any ideas on whats going on inside?
Brown:”AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHH”
Saw Clegg on the BBC a few minutes ago. He does realise that the Tories aren’t in Government any more, doesn’t he? He can barely disguise his contempt for them.
Maybe he was too busy sh@gging to even notice Labour have been in power for 11 years….
Although BBC election coverage was largely awful (stopped watching at 1.15am or so) I would like to point out that the delightful Clemency Burton-Hill was on, which was one highlight at least.
Interesting that they involved some bloggers, who were clearly getting information more quickly than the BBC themselves, and yet it still took some time for council results to be passed from blogger to BBC.
53
On the other hand:
Gallup’s Tracking Poll :
Obama goes from being 10 points ahead of Hillary on April 21, to a tie on April 25, to a 49-45 lead for Hillary yesterday:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106945/Gallup-Daily-Clinton-49-Obama-45.aspx
Thanks for all the comments last night I’ve just read through. Fair play to the Tories; this was their night, but the Lib Dems won’t be too gutted either; lots of good results around parliamentary seats, and carefully targetted results. Liverpool a bit of a blip but I don’t know the details there, and it had always been tough transferring local government strength to GE results anyway.
But as for Labour, sadly I can only say they have got what they deserved for their actions over the past years. It’s now or never from Brown to start acting as Labour were elected to do. Glad to see the BNP struggling as expected; they’ll likely to better in London, but for the mayoral I am sticking with my Boris by 7 then 6 prediction.
32 Luckily we’ll be following the strategy that is our interest…
3 observations from an exciting night;
1-JackW is as enigmatic as ever- his teaming up with Andrea looks to be a formidable combination;
2-Mike Smithson made one of the funniest posts ever- the imposter arrived to the scene when Mike said he was having his supper. Did the imposter know Mike’s supper habits?
3-The Beeb TV was appalling- but get yourself a small digital wireless, some headphones and go to bed tuned in to 5 live. Lulling in and out of sleep you keep up with the election, do not get overly tired the next day, do not keep your partner awake, it is simply wonderful incisive coverage, and no ADs.
The TV is dead- long live the radio.
On topic, given that the site moderators / editors can’t operate 24/7, would it be possible for the site to generate an automatic e-mail to new posters explaining why their post hasn’t gone ‘live’ and that it will be actioned in due course. That could help people who might otherwise be put off. It would also check the validity of their e-mail address.
I didn’t see any of the election night coverage so will have to accept the words of those who did. All I can say is that I’m not surprised given some of the Beeb’s previous efforts on non-general election nights. They seem to do them OK, but local elections and anything foreign appears to be completely beyond them.
New thread - Has Harriet conceded defeat in London
To be fair to the BBC (why do that I hear you ask) I think they screwed up. They were all set up to do a London centric program about BoJo’s glorious defeat, only to be confounded by the simple trick of the votes not being counted over night. Surely they knew that Ken has imported a new electronic counting machine designed in Harare and funded by Hugo Chavez, which will only give out a result once he has one…
As normally a staunch defender of the BBC have to agree the dumbing down which seems to have affected most of their output yesterday (bar the greats like Attenborough) reached its zenith last night.
It hurt to watch. It made ITV look only moronic.
Morning all - having missed all the excitment of the imposter and then didn’t stay up to watch the results come in I feel like I’ve missed out…
Casually glancing at the results so far seems to be Great for the Tories, Good but not great for the Libs, but carefully targetted, and shockingly aweful for Labour. Anything I’m missing?
From Today’s Metro (London edition) - page 4:
Metro exit poll win for Livingstone
“Ken Livingstone is on course for a convincing win over Conservative opponent Boris Johnson if an exit poll carried out by Metro yesterday is accurate. The poll was carried out in three London boroughs - the Labour stronghold of Lewisham, the Liberal Democrat-held seat of Brent East and traditional Tory heartland Barnet.
THe final tally showed the incumbent mayor taking aroudn 55 per cent of the vote. He won in Lewisham, Willesden Green and, despite coming second on first preferences, drew level when second preferences were totted up in Barnet.
Although scoring very well on second preferences, Brian Paddick took just nine percent of first preference votes in our poll… 18 percent of second votes [for] Mr Paddick. Sian Berry took 2.5 per cent of first preferences but the 15 percent of second preference votes bodes well for the Green candidate’s Assembly bid.”
Any views?
Exit poll in The Metro gives Ken “convincing” win ???
after watching bbc coverage i’ve reached following conclusions: 1.jeremy vine has to go…i had to turn the sound off on some of his later contributions he was so annoying. 2.emily maitless is there because she is a pretty face, friendly & engaging maybe but current affairs really not her bag. 3.dimbleby becoming a problem, always anxious to be chummy with the politicians he clearly likes ie the chuckles with charlie kennedy..maybe it was time he was pensioned off onto great events of state only.
May i suggest new team headed by andrew neill & adam boulton it might just knock politicians off their pre-prepared line….and i can’t imagine either being impressed with gun-slinging libdems /ascent of tory from ape upwards..and the British Prime Miniter however awful he might be, being likened to Mr Bean.
66 The clue is probably that they went to Brent East. I would expect Livingstone to poll fairly well in his old parliamentary seat.
Apart from the world service, is there any reason to continue with the BBC as a public sector broadcaster?
Just as its vital to have off-centre views on the site (the excellent Roger…), that includes Emily ..-Churchill.
The main parties have being particularly ineffective in addressing the worries of the supporters for the BNP. They seem to concentrate on attacking the BNP’s unpleasant leadership. But after that, they either scorn or ignore the views of their voters. Is it a wonder that they don’t vote for a big party?
70. Fair comment in my view.At the end of the day the BNP do not do well where there is healthy political rivalry and locally elected members are active and responsive in dealing with residents concerns. The only caveat to that is where central government policies impinge on the ability of local councils to respond as they do with social housing shortages in places like Barking and Dagenham. They have had a modest overnight gain of 8 cllrs but four years ago that would have been unthinkable.
They will pick up the ex UKIP vote and some Tories disillusioned with Camerons green and inclusive agenda. But the real threat is to New Labour in working class areas where those whose working class voices aren’t as heard as much by New Labour as those of middle England.
Mike
Only just woken up after staying up till 2am.. ThE BBC coverage was truly appaling. What the Hell was Jeremy Vine doing in a cowboy hat and fake gun and fake accent. truly embarrasing, in fact I retuned to Sky. BBC dumbing down.. you bet!!”!
Mike: You are right, the BBC was awful. Jeremy Vine’s Texan drawl, Stalin to Mr Bean, Emily Maitlis telling me nothing had happened in London, 3D graphs that were not easy to understand. This is the sort of thing BBC should do well - and Anthong King and Nick Robinson are a good start. You would also be good! So go for it - you have a community of serious people behind you in trying to get them to do better.
I don’t think the moderation of posts will cause too many waves Mike. I think after the recent episodes people realise its necessary to take precautions against these people.
Oh and I do concur about the BBC coverage. It plumbed new lows last night with Vine’s contribution being the lowest of the low points.
If you don’t like the BBC coverage, then why not start up a Facebook group about it? I doubt the BBC will listen, but at least people could vent their spleen!
After the last few BBC local election results programmes, marred by all those OB interviews with Joe and Joanne Public in winebars or nighclubs with terrible acoustics, I gave up on the BBC and switched to Sky News. I’ll probably stick with it for the next GE.
The problem with Vine is he thinks he’s a square who thinks he’s cool. It’s like watching Adrian Mole pretending to be The Fonz.
For some amusing reviews of BBC (and ITV) election results programmes passim, go to http://www.offthetelly.co.uk.
I do think the BBC coverage (well, Nick Robinson) are underestimating the impact this will have on the PLP. I think that this will slow burn for a couple of days, then explode early next week after the Sundays and the MPs weekends in their constituencies.