Havering & Redbridge Johnson 87,302 to 45,915 for Livingstone.
Bexley/Bromley 122,000 to 40,670 for Livingstone.
Johnson should win 50,000 in City & East.
Constituencies, huge Tory win in Bexley/Bromley, quite large vote for NF, Labour gain Brent/Harrow, and probably hold Enfield/Haringey. Labour hold City & East by 60,000 to 32,000 over the Conservatives.
Labour’s supporters have turned out really well, but some of them will vote for Johnson as Mayor, while voting Labour in the Assembly.
16 The amazing thing is that Mike and Robert run this on a shoestring — and have easily outclassed the pitiful BBC, with its gargantuan resources and license fee.
15
Well said Gabble.
Remember Mrs Thatcher only lust won her first term of office becasue the Conservative Party was NOT Labour - who had screwed everything up (Winter of Discontent).
Apart from her fans, she was hated or respected .. but liked? Rarely.
I don’t think the Conservatives care WHY people vote for them…:-)
Dear lord, what a pitifully embarrasing count. Close of polls occured at 10pm yesterday - by the looks of things it’s going to take more than 24 hours from close of polls to get a result out!
22. It’s looking very interesting. The scale of the inner-outer London difference is if anything even bigger than predicted, and the Labour assembly vote pretty resilient.
FWIW I think there are two patterns at work on the Labour vote:
- many who switched to the Greens or Lib Dems for the assembly last time are now voting a straight Labour ticket.
- there’s a group of Labour voters who still consider themselves Labour, but have gone over to Boris for a change.
I was a poll clerk in and it was quite clear that significant numbers were only voting because of Boris. Apart from the odd 80 yr old women who “just wanted to know how to vote for Boris”, the clue was obviously in the number of times we were asked “do I have to put a second preference?”.
I cant believe that BBC radio london is streaming in a mere 6k ..which is smallest thing Ive seen on Realplayer ever. Though the sound is a bit poor quality it is listenable.
48. More importantly, why isn’t London Elects reporting the results? Just Bexley and Bromley has been published.
37. Matt, I think you’re being a little unfair: polls may have closed 24 hours ago, but counting will take 14 hours - 14 hours to count over six million ballot papers (2 million voters with three ballot papers) - that’s 428,571 ballot papers counted every hour, which is quite impressive.
56 - I think he’ll give a very dignified concession speech and wish Boris the very best and assistance. Ken is a proper politician whatever you think of him, who understands that you try all the tricks that you’ve got, but ultimately once the people have spoken you must accept the result.
And i think Boris will be hugely complimentary in his acceptance speech. If he hasn’t learnt a lot from Ken in this campaign then he’s doing something wrong.
YouGov’s national voting intention and Mayoral voting intention polls are looking exceptionally good. Going into the general election, YouGov will get huge prominence (wouldn’t surprise me if BBC/ITV/SKY don’t commision YouGov to do the election night exit poll.
There has to be some doubt now as to MORI’s future as a leading pollster?
“Throughout this election the Evening Standard/YouGov polls have given the appearance not so much of providing information on Londoners’ views but rather of trying to influence voters and the media by showing big leads for Boris Johnson when every other conventional poll has shown Livingstone and Johnson to be neck and neck, and indeed, Livingstone ahead.”
If they could just tweak Boris’ first preference share down to 44.9%, that would suit me just fine.
I’ve covered my stake on 40-45% by having a saver on 45-50% as suggested by Caveman but would get a nice extra return if Boris could just sneak under the 45% bar.
Still looking forward to the official news of a Boris victory as I am seriously RED on Ken and very GREEN on Boris. Blue really is the new Green!
How would you do an exit poll on the internet?!
The point is to catch people who actually vote, pretty much at the moment they vote.
Also it’s done in key polling sations in key wards in key seats, which have been done before, many times (in fact I actually pucked most of them!)
89. Robinson hit the issue - Brown became PM promising to renew New Labour and he’s actually doing worse than his successor - even a pessimist would expect him to be doing slightly better…
Does anyone know whether the minor parties do about the same in the party list vote as the constituency section? if so, seems to me that the Greens will only get one assembly seat.
been busy for afew hours. Out of eaqr shot of the election news. Am just stunned at Labour’s losses. They are horrific and must be worse than they had expected. Tories much better.
Are we [Pretty Boy Dave Team] going to get enough assembly seats?
Does anyone know what is happening in the South West seat? I imagine Boris will win there and Paddick will poll his best numbers there, but am interested in the assembly race.
Re 93, StJohn “Still looking forward to the official news of a Boris victory as I am seriously RED on Ken and very GREEN on Boris. Blue really is the new Green!”
Either you don’t let party loyalty cloud your judgment or you want me to dust off that membership pack
I think we should be cautious of slagging off Mori before we get all the results in and can sensibly evaluate the data.
Remember about a week before polling we had Mori showing it neck-and-neck and YouGov showing Boris with a double digit lead. The final result looks to be roughly in the middle (as some people here predicted).
75 - can Yougov do an exit poll? An internet panel doesn’t seem right for that task. Most recently ITV and BBC have jointly paid for a very large exit sample.
Nope, put £10 on Ken Livingstone at 20/1 earlier today and £50 on various Boris and Ken combinations above 45%. The Ken bet seemed a reasonable bet at 4pm, obviously less so now.
Bit of a shock in Harrow and Brent!
Will Boris get 50% on first preference?? Possible - needs 54% in last seven constituencies, coming from mainly con areas
I put this song in the English (Beurla) on this site when Cameron won the Conservative leadership. I think it will fit again.
ENGLISH
There’s many a man of the Cameron Clan,
That has followed his chief to the field;
He has sworn to support him, or die by his side,
For a Cameron never can yield.
I hear the pibroach sounding, sounding,
Deep o’er the mountain and glen;
While light springing footsteps are trampling the heath,
‘Tis the march of the Cameron Men.
Oh! proudly they walk, but each Cameron knows
He may tread on the heather no more;
But boldly he follows his Chief to the field,
Where his laurels were gathered before.
I hear the pibroach sounding, sounding,
Deep o’er the mountain and glen;
While light springing footsteps are trampling the heath,
‘Tis the march of the Cameron Men.
The moon has arisen, it shines on the path
Now tread by the gallant and true;
High, high are their hopes, for their chieftain hath said
That whatever men dare they can do.
I hear the pibroach sounding, sounding,
Deep o’er the mountain and glen;
While light springing footsteps are trampling the heath,
‘Tis the march of the Cameron Men.
GAELIC
Cha’n ‘eil òganach treun de chloinn Chamrain gu léir,
Nach téid deònach fo Bhrataich Lochial;
Gu buaidh no gu bàs ’s bidh iad dìleas ’s gach càs,
Oir géill cha d’thug Camranach riamh.
Nach cluinn sibh fuaim na pìoba tighinn,
Gu h-àrd thar monadh ‘us ghleann;
Agus cas-cheuman eutrom a’ saltairt an fhraoich!
‘Si caismeachd Chloinn Chamrain a th’ ann!
‘Si th’ ann! ‘Si th’ ann!
‘Si caismeachd Chloinn Chamrain a th’ ann!
O! ’s uallach an ceum, ged tha fios aig gach treun
Gu’m faod e bhi màireach ’san ùir;
Ach gach àrmunn, gun sgàth, theid le Cheannard do’n bhlàr,
Far ‘m bu dualach dhaibh buaidh agus cliù.
Nach cluinn sibh fuaim na pìoba tighinn,
Gu h-àrd thar monadh ‘us ghleann;
Agus cas-cheuman eutrom a’ saltairt an fhraoich!
‘Si caismeachd Chloinn Chamrain a th’ ann!
‘Si th’ ann! ‘Si th’ ann!
‘Si caismeachd Chloinn Chamrain a th’ ann!
Tha ghealach ag éiridh, ’s tha ‘gathan air ceuman
Nan òigear tha treun agus fìor;
‘S àrd dòchas an cléibh, ’s thuirt an Ceannard e féin
Gur laoich iad nach géill anns an strìth.
Nach cluinn sibh fuaim na pìoba tighinn,
Gu h-àrd thar monadh ‘us ghleann;
Agus cas-cheuman eutrom a’ saltairt an fhraoich!
‘Si caismeachd Chloinn Chamrain a th’ ann!
‘Si th’ ann! ‘Si th’ ann!
‘Si caismeachd Chloinn Chamrain a th’ ann!
As a neutral politically, I would say the way that the BBC worked out the gains is better than Sky’s. The results in Chehire, Durham etc weren’t really gains and losses, they are entirely new councils. Partisans will spin their preference, of course, but P from P, I don’t put you in that category.
116 fair enough Mike, but I was careful to say it can be unintentuonal. The discrepancy between their prediction and the result does, in my personal opinion, speak for itself. But I dont want to cause any trouble for the site so no more on Mori tonight!
If Ken has lost, what odds do you think I would get on him contesting the Crewe & Nantwich bye election and being PM by the time of the party conference……
Hope no-one is relying on their winnings for the weekend. The London election is being run by the Zimbabwe election commission. Result perhaps in a fortnight.
I don’t think Boris will get 50% on 1sts. Apparently the running scores are being put up in City Hall and that’s where the 46% or so estimates are coming from. It’s not as if they know nothing from the seats yet to be finally declared.
No if the scale is as big as seems likely then I’m afraid MORI do need to alter their methodology. It may be true that, like sending a rocket to the moon, if you are slightly out in one calculation you can miss by a mile. Nevertheless this is very poor of MORI and just not good enough. They clearly now have to take on board YouGov’s methodology or they will be disregarded as a laughing stock. In particular:
145 the notional losses ie computing notional results in the previous election and then comparing the actual result, is correct - the same thing is done in a GE when there are boundary changes….
146. you said ‘can be’ unintentional, and was there an ‘or not’ in the first post?
I’ve not been a pollster for a decade plus, but I’ll say this clearly and strongly: polling errors are never, never intentional.
163: If I were Teather I’d be terrified. The Jamaicans of Harlsden appear to have come out in force for Labour. This can only be excellent news for Brent’s (Jamaican heritage) Labour MP Dawn Butler.
Just got in after one of the regular Broxtowe canvasses - quite restful not to have an imminent election, back to the old “not sure, but there’s time yet, eh?’ responses. But I’m confused by the constituency reports here. Do these figures includes 2nd prefs? If so, why is that done by constituency before (in principle) the overall top two are known? (Sorry if it’s been answered on an earlier thread.)
I can’t believe notionals were done properly for the new councils’ wards. Believe me, it’s very, very difficult! R+T didn’t do them. Anthony Wells didn’t do them.
here’s a comment from the Evening Standard’s comments:
‘In Brent and Harrow for years Labour took it for granted the large Asian vote, around 30%. Both the London and Tory worked with the Asian community and in Harrow nearly produced a total wipe-of of Labour. The Labour ex-leader Cll Navin Shah just scraped through to hold on to his ward seat. In the meantime the Tories started engaging with the ethnic residents such as planning approval for the first state funded Hindu school which was opposed by Labour candidate Cll Navin Shah.
Also interesting to note after 2006 local elections the Tories made a historical breakthrough , becoming the party with largest number of Asian councillors, a bedrock of grass roots support.
Asian in Harrow and Brent has wised up and Labour candidates will have to work very hard to win back the Asian vote long take for granted by labour as in the bag.’
Seems like the Shah chap was Labour deciding to win some of ‘their’ ethnic vote back. Shah was endorsed by the Muslim Association of Britain
It’s all very well using notional results when the whole country’s boundaries have changed. But why not avoid thye ambiguity in this case and split the few shadow councils out from all the other results?
182- Fair enough. But the BBC could still therefore be descibed as kind to Labour even if we don’t highlight the same number as Sky News. The ‘real’ switch to the Tories and away from Labour must be more than the BBC are reporting if they are not including thousands of votes from last night.
Cooper was on the Channel 4 News, making a balls of it ironically enough.
He has dissappeared. As much courage as Gordon? Or a stategic hideout. Obviously that is what Gordon used to do, all the while desperate for the top job, believing he could do it better. History repeats itself…
179. Not sure what you mean, Nick, but there aren’t second preferences in the GLA constituencies: just straight FPTP, so they’re quicker to announce than the Mayoral results. Some of the Mayoral results by constituency are out, but not many.
Brown Central is trying to compare whats going on now to John Major Nov 1990-April 1992. Now, we know this analogy doesn’t fit as far as the opinion polls go, because Major improved the Conservatives opinion polls ratings consistently between late 1990 and early 1992 (they were still poor, but not as dire as they had been from 89-90) Where-as Brown had his little bounce and Labour is now in a worse position than they were under Blair in the opinion polls.
So what about real elections. How did John Major do in terms of national share of the vote in the 1991 local elections?
“In a similar vain I will urge you to vote for Councillor Navin Shah in Harrow and Brent. He always supported the Tamils be it Tsunami, Tamil as an official language or a rally at Trafalgar square. “
Despite all the hype and silly extrapolations, the overall swings from 2004 are quite modest, seemingly in the 4-5% range. Not enough for a Tory majority…
171 many here hhave commented on mori’s perceived bias to Labour many times in the past. Lack of intention is not relevant when asessing a pattern of overstating party a, and understating party b. The firm will need to explain why it sticks with its methodolgy if the results are as predicted.
looking good for BJ
Bexley:
Boris 121,000
Ken 40,000
Ooh I am first!
Sorry for the outage - again traffic is totally exceptional.
Casino, not so confident now?
Re my 3, apparently not. Seems Boris will win.
watching the bumbling ‘rain man’ gurning loser on sky is embarrassing
This is the closest one-horse race in history
5
Why do you write that?
Brent and Harrow mayoralty - Ken wins by just 2.5% of the vote. Ken 42.5% Boris 40%. Big swing to Conservatives. (From BBC London)
Re 9, Philippe Magnan
“5
Why do you write that?”
because he is a twit?
5. Did you find yourself nodding at comical Ali during the Iraq war??
Tessa Jowell has just conceded, 2 hours from declaration, so vote cannot possibly be close.
10. Well, it’s a 3.4% swing. Not sure that’s a “big” swing, but it’s a swing.
Fantastic results for the tories - much better than I would have predicted.
However, the mood still seems to be more anti-Labour than pro-tory….apart from Boris, of course.
Shameless plugging:
Thank you to those who used Orange By Name: The OFFICIAL Emergency Comment Centre for when PB.Com is So Popular it Goes Down
http://orangebyname.blogspot.com/2008/05/london-results-rumours-as-they-come.html
In all serious though - well done Mike and Robert for getting it back up - the success of this place is fantastic.
On with the results…
5. I’m going to come down to London Zoo tomorrow and bum you.
Sky have Boris winning Brent
15 - What’s up? Had you lost your briefing notes down the back of the sofa?
London could stay blue for decades on these figures.
Sorry ignore that
Finally got through.
Havering & Redbridge Johnson 87,302 to 45,915 for Livingstone.
Bexley/Bromley 122,000 to 40,670 for Livingstone.
Johnson should win 50,000 in City & East.
Constituencies, huge Tory win in Bexley/Bromley, quite large vote for NF, Labour gain Brent/Harrow, and probably hold Enfield/Haringey. Labour hold City & East by 60,000 to 32,000 over the Conservatives.
Labour’s supporters have turned out really well, but some of them will vote for Johnson as Mayor, while voting Labour in the Assembly.
411: JENNETTE Arnold has held her London Assembly seat.
The Labour candidate for London North East got 73,551 votes.
In second place, Conservative candidate Alexander Ellis achieved 45,114 votes.
How exactly is a majority of 28,000 as opposed to one of 13,000 last time a reduced majority!?!!?!?!
Do we have any official GLA results yet?
Boris 378,239 - Livingstone 343,670
24 - Yes a Labour gain in Harrow and Brent.
16 The amazing thing is that Mike and Robert run this on a shoestring — and have easily outclassed the pitiful BBC, with its gargantuan resources and license fee.
B&H Livingstone 65982 Boris 61825
So after 5 constituencies Boris leads by 34,569
Just picked up BBC radio London, ah the internet, how handy.
Still Radio 4’s coverage last night was great.
22. Sean - what is your assessment of the final result for Mayor/Assembly based on these figures?
Enfield & Haringey - Labour hold, only a 1000 votes in it, same as last time.
Why is BBC now showing a film show? Seems like they’re only more than happy to put anything on which avoids mentioning the bad labour news.
Would they be doing this if labour were up?
Does anyone know why Sky’s projections for council seats are so different from the BBC’s?
15
Well said Gabble.
Remember Mrs Thatcher only lust won her first term of office becasue the Conservative Party was NOT Labour - who had screwed everything up (Winter of Discontent).
Apart from her fans, she was hated or respected .. but liked? Rarely.
I don’t think the Conservatives care WHY people vote for them…:-)
Labour hold Enfield and Haringey!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Dear lord, what a pitifully embarrasing count. Close of polls occured at 10pm yesterday - by the looks of things it’s going to take more than 24 hours from close of polls to get a result out!
Crazy.
First prefs - Boris 378,239 - Livingstone 343,670 in 1st prefs
- after 5 constituencies Boris leads by 34,569
Boris’s lead should expand as the rest come in as we know he is ahead in most constituencies and the outer areas are pro-him and will come later on.
Radio London very good quick info (Sky channel 0152)
Has Ken formally admitted he’s lost, yet?
Are the Tories certain to get a top up seat?
33. Also crazy. The BBCs coverage has been abysmal.
22. It’s looking very interesting. The scale of the inner-outer London difference is if anything even bigger than predicted, and the Labour assembly vote pretty resilient.
FWIW I think there are two patterns at work on the Labour vote:
- many who switched to the Greens or Lib Dems for the assembly last time are now voting a straight Labour ticket.
- there’s a group of Labour voters who still consider themselves Labour, but have gone over to Boris for a change.
40 - I don’t think we have heard anything from Livingstone (or Boris) since the count started. Paddick has been a media slut on the other hand!
Now the Labour women from Enfield and Haringey will start to cry again for her shock win?
Labour have successfully got out their vote in London. Congratulations.
Now, watch Labour Ministers try and gloss over their loss of the Mayoralty by talking up the Assembly holds and gain.
35. “Remember Mrs Thatcher only lust”
Excuse me?
Why isn’t the BBC reporting any results?
All they’ve had is various people saying who they think will win, interspersed with interviews with Johnson’s dad and Tony Benn
15. And how do you come to that conclussion?
46. Labour must be wishing they’d made the GLA much stronger.
SKY News calling Boris on 45% 1st share. Deep joy…
Right have all these counts been declared as the London Elects website is only showing Bexley and Bromley Assembly?
The Guardian - unlike the BBC - have the full figures for first 5 announced
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/02/london08.london1
I was a poll clerk in and it was quite clear that significant numbers were only voting because of Boris. Apart from the odd 80 yr old women who “just wanted to know how to vote for Boris”, the clue was obviously in the number of times we were asked “do I have to put a second preference?”.
I cant believe that BBC radio london is streaming in a mere 6k ..which is smallest thing Ive seen on Realplayer ever. Though the sound is a bit poor quality it is listenable.
44. Thanks. I can’t wait to hear what Ken says about this loss.
It’s looking good for Yougov. Hope they have their writs for Ken ready
oh dear…………commie/socialist wipeout!!!!!!!!
go bojo
After 5 constituencies declared - 45% for BoJo, 41% for Ken and 9% for Paddick
48. More importantly, why isn’t London Elects reporting the results? Just Bexley and Bromley has been published.
37. Matt, I think you’re being a little unfair: polls may have closed 24 hours ago, but counting will take 14 hours - 14 hours to count over six million ballot papers (2 million voters with three ballot papers) - that’s 428,571 ballot papers counted every hour, which is quite impressive.
Did ANYONE get close to predicting Lab -400, Con +300?
I make it Livingstone 256087, Norris 186868 at this stage in 2004.
Vindication for YouGov.
50. Ha, good point. Nice to see it come back to bite them.
53. Thanks. In City and East, six parties have got 5% of the vote or more. Worrying far-right figures there and in Havering.
55 - Streaming at 44k for me.
43. Implication being that in any “normal” year, the Tories would be very hard pressed to take London.
It is a Labour inclined “City” being absolutely overwhelmed tonight by the blue-voting Suburbs.
56 - I think he’ll give a very dignified concession speech and wish Boris the very best and assistance. Ken is a proper politician whatever you think of him, who understands that you try all the tricks that you’ve got, but ultimately once the people have spoken you must accept the result.
And i think Boris will be hugely complimentary in his acceptance speech. If he hasn’t learnt a lot from Ken in this campaign then he’s doing something wrong.
66. Now at 8k, im just astounded that anything can stream audibly at that , yet there it is.
Lewisham
Ken 63043
Boris 51151
g&N surprisingly close go Bojo
that’s greenwich and lewisham
National Front 11,000 votes in Bexley (5.65%) - what the hell?
39. Don’t have that channel? I’ve got Sky.
Sure it’s correct?
YouGov’s national voting intention and Mayoral voting intention polls are looking exceptionally good. Going into the general election, YouGov will get huge prominence (wouldn’t surprise me if BBC/ITV/SKY don’t commision YouGov to do the election night exit poll.
There has to be some doubt now as to MORI’s future as a leading pollster?
http://www.kenlivingstone.com/media/statement_on_evening_standard_yougov_poll
“Throughout this election the Evening Standard/YouGov polls have given the appearance not so much of providing information on Londoners’ views but rather of trying to influence voters and the media by showing big leads for Boris Johnson when every other conventional poll has shown Livingstone and Johnson to be neck and neck, and indeed, Livingstone ahead.”
hahahahahahahahaha
73. Its 11 000 people bugged by something, the question is what.
After 6 seats:
Boris 429k
Ken 406k
I THINK only one more Ken seat to come
75 - Exit polls are a completely different kettle of fish to regular polling.
MORI are fooked.
Julia from Mori was getting her excuses in early yesterday. Today, she and other Mori-ites have been absent from our screens
Suggest our genial host consider Mori’s awful Labour bias (intentional or not, doesn’t matter, result is the same) for a future thread.
20,000 votes for BNP + NF in City and East (around 10.5%)
I make it Livingstone 406813, Johnson 429390.
After these constituencies in 2004, I make it Livingstone 303937, Norris 209313.
74. You can try BBC London on the BBC website.
Some Conservatives are very bad winners.
79. Of course.
UKIP are in meltdown… -6% average
83. Still just about doable for Ken though, no?
This from Nick Robinson. I think he has finally woken up to the fact that its a disaster for Gordo..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2008/05/no_easy_answers.html
82. BNP may get that Londonwide top up seat after all.
[61] ‘Did ANYONE get close to predicting Lab -400, Con +300?’
my last estimate (May 2nd, 2008 at 12:53 am), Cons +311 Lab -228.
311 for Cons…Didnt see the Labour collapse although very pleased.
89, Jack Peterson
Nick Robinson is utterly useless
If they could just tweak Boris’ first preference share down to 44.9%, that would suit me just fine.
I’ve covered my stake on 40-45% by having a saver on 45-50% as suggested by Caveman but would get a nice extra return if Boris could just sneak under the 45% bar.
Still looking forward to the official news of a Boris victory as I am seriously RED on Ken and very GREEN on Boris. Blue really is the new Green!
91 - so just an excuse to talk down the LibDems then?
92. What?
How would you do an exit poll on the internet?!
The point is to catch people who actually vote, pretty much at the moment they vote.
Also it’s done in key polling sations in key wards in key seats, which have been done before, many times (in fact I actually pucked most of them!)
89. Robinson hit the issue - Brown became PM promising to renew New Labour and he’s actually doing worse than his successor - even a pessimist would expect him to be doing slightly better…
Does anyone know whether the minor parties do about the same in the party list vote as the constituency section? if so, seems to me that the Greens will only get one assembly seat.
97. Predecessor, I mean!
That’s picked, not f… or anything else!!
93. Few tenners on the right direction StJohn should sort you out..,I mean whats 0.1%….
If one of the candidates gets 45+ I stand to make a reasonable profit. Worst scenario would be BJ winning with less than 45% of the vote.
Labour GLA seats swing to Labour..
Tory to Tory…
???
Did the BNP not contest Redbridge & HAvering? Very surprising, they are not mentioned on that Guardian thing
been busy for afew hours. Out of eaqr shot of the election news. Am just stunned at Labour’s losses. They are horrific and must be worse than they had expected. Tories much better.
Are we [Pretty Boy Dave Team] going to get enough assembly seats?
Greens did only about 1% better in list vote than in seats.
Does anyone know what is happening in the South West seat? I imagine Boris will win there and Paddick will poll his best numbers there, but am interested in the assembly race.
Massive Boris vote in the 7th seat on Sky figures
Re 93, StJohn “Still looking forward to the official news of a Boris victory as I am seriously RED on Ken and very GREEN on Boris. Blue really is the new Green!”
Either you don’t let party loyalty cloud your judgment or you want me to dust off that membership pack
I think we should be cautious of slagging off Mori before we get all the results in and can sensibly evaluate the data.
Remember about a week before polling we had Mori showing it neck-and-neck and YouGov showing Boris with a double digit lead. The final result looks to be roughly in the middle (as some people here predicted).
But clearly Jack’s ARSE ended up a bit wonky!
BBC are going over last night’s Council results… “breaking news”
Boris 520,905 - Livingstone 454,518
After 7 seats
Boris 520k
Ken 454k
Don’t know which one just come out.
What was that 7th seat?
7th seat was West Central.
re 81. Test - be very careful about what you say about pollsters.
West Central was 7th seat
74 - it’s only on that number for people in the London area. It has to be tuned in manually outside there - see http://www.bbc.co.uk/reception/info/sat_frequencies.shtml if you know what you are doing there.
75 - can Yougov do an exit poll? An internet panel doesn’t seem right for that task. Most recently ITV and BBC have jointly paid for a very large exit sample.
110 Rob E. How very dare you !!
Wait until second preferences are counted !!
102 - Didn’t you bet on Boris winning???
No pollster has a political bias. Their business (mostly not political polling) is based on accuracy.
119 - Are they going to be needed? A few more Bromleys to come?
I think saying that it vindicates YouGov is better. MORI just need to look at their methodology.
103 no predictions of doom for the Tories, Herr Crosby?
Conservative Friends of Israel send their regards.
Is counting constituency votes and assuming that people voted for the mayor the same way not risky
119. Oh, I’m waiting Jack W. If I’m wrong I’ll apologise profusely and hold you ARSE aloft for all to applaud.
81. Pollsters get it wrong sometimes.
121 - Indeed, I am with Robert. But MORI will be very concerned at this. Political polling is important for their reputations.
True to form and as predicted, the BBC announced on their 10 pm news that Labour had lost 331 seats, not the actual figure of 400+ as reported by Sky.
Nope, put £10 on Ken Livingstone at 20/1 earlier today and £50 on various Boris and Ken combinations above 45%. The Ken bet seemed a reasonable bet at 4pm, obviously less so now.
http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/05/02/not-over-until-its-over/
125. The numbers above are Mayor votes, not GLA.
It reminds me of Citizen Kane … “100,000 behind and the Upstate vote to come” …. don’t see Orson Welles as Ken, though! More Jimmy Cagney.
125 - They are counting different papers.
125 - Yes, Boris will have done much better than the Conservatives on the London Assembly.
test
Ah - thanks. I can only find constituency votes on the various sites showing them.
Labour are united according to Tessa Jowell. Interesting
Hello all
Bit of a shock in Harrow and Brent!
Will Boris get 50% on first preference?? Possible - needs 54% in last seven constituencies, coming from mainly con areas
I put this song in the English (Beurla) on this site when Cameron won the Conservative leadership. I think it will fit again.
ENGLISH
There’s many a man of the Cameron Clan,
That has followed his chief to the field;
He has sworn to support him, or die by his side,
For a Cameron never can yield.
I hear the pibroach sounding, sounding,
Deep o’er the mountain and glen;
While light springing footsteps are trampling the heath,
‘Tis the march of the Cameron Men.
Oh! proudly they walk, but each Cameron knows
He may tread on the heather no more;
But boldly he follows his Chief to the field,
Where his laurels were gathered before.
I hear the pibroach sounding, sounding,
Deep o’er the mountain and glen;
While light springing footsteps are trampling the heath,
‘Tis the march of the Cameron Men.
The moon has arisen, it shines on the path
Now tread by the gallant and true;
High, high are their hopes, for their chieftain hath said
That whatever men dare they can do.
I hear the pibroach sounding, sounding,
Deep o’er the mountain and glen;
While light springing footsteps are trampling the heath,
‘Tis the march of the Cameron Men.
GAELIC
Cha’n ‘eil òganach treun de chloinn Chamrain gu léir,
Nach téid deònach fo Bhrataich Lochial;
Gu buaidh no gu bàs ’s bidh iad dìleas ’s gach càs,
Oir géill cha d’thug Camranach riamh.
Nach cluinn sibh fuaim na pìoba tighinn,
Gu h-àrd thar monadh ‘us ghleann;
Agus cas-cheuman eutrom a’ saltairt an fhraoich!
‘Si caismeachd Chloinn Chamrain a th’ ann!
‘Si th’ ann! ‘Si th’ ann!
‘Si caismeachd Chloinn Chamrain a th’ ann!
O! ’s uallach an ceum, ged tha fios aig gach treun
Gu’m faod e bhi màireach ’san ùir;
Ach gach àrmunn, gun sgàth, theid le Cheannard do’n bhlàr,
Far ‘m bu dualach dhaibh buaidh agus cliù.
Nach cluinn sibh fuaim na pìoba tighinn,
Gu h-àrd thar monadh ‘us ghleann;
Agus cas-cheuman eutrom a’ saltairt an fhraoich!
‘Si caismeachd Chloinn Chamrain a th’ ann!
‘Si th’ ann! ‘Si th’ ann!
‘Si caismeachd Chloinn Chamrain a th’ ann!
Tha ghealach ag éiridh, ’s tha ‘gathan air ceuman
Nan òigear tha treun agus fìor;
‘S àrd dòchas an cléibh, ’s thuirt an Ceannard e féin
Gur laoich iad nach géill anns an strìth.
Nach cluinn sibh fuaim na pìoba tighinn,
Gu h-àrd thar monadh ‘us ghleann;
Agus cas-cheuman eutrom a’ saltairt an fhraoich!
‘Si caismeachd Chloinn Chamrain a th’ ann!
‘Si th’ ann! ‘Si th’ ann!
‘Si caismeachd Chloinn Chamrain a th’ ann!
that crooked liar jowell on sky getting destroyed on sky
lol @ Tessa Jowell.
“Labour are united… in wanting the Govt to do better”
126 Rob E. You wait to be ARSED cheeky !!
As a neutral politically, I would say the way that the BBC worked out the gains is better than Sky’s. The results in Chehire, Durham etc weren’t really gains and losses, they are entirely new councils. Partisans will spin their preference, of course, but P from P, I don’t put you in that category.
Any chance that Darling would go as Chancellor in a reshuffle?
135. You are just clearing yer throat aint ya.
129 Sky are wrong with their 400 figure they seem to have introduced notional losses for the new unitary authorities
116 fair enough Mike, but I was careful to say it can be unintentuonal. The discrepancy between their prediction and the result does, in my personal opinion, speak for itself. But I dont want to cause any trouble for the site so no more on Mori tonight!
Has anyone seen Ed Balls or is he ensuring he is not associated withthis disaster
144. Yokel: “Any chance that Darling would go as Chancellor in a reshuffle?”
The big 10p mistake was Brown’s.
If Ken has lost, what odds do you think I would get on him contesting the Crewe & Nantwich bye election and being PM by the time of the party conference……
Boris well ahead in Barnet (BBC News showed screen).
I’d estimate:
Boris 55/60
Ken 30/35
Hope no-one is relying on their winnings for the weekend. The London election is being run by the Zimbabwe election commission. Result perhaps in a fortnight.
I don’t think Boris will get 50% on 1sts. Apparently the running scores are being put up in City Hall and that’s where the 46% or so estimates are coming from. It’s not as if they know nothing from the seats yet to be finally declared.
145. I think different rather than wrong Mark. Why not include the notionals?
Result expected at midnight. So knackered but i’ll stop up.
144. a PM in trouble cant afford to lose his chancellor….
No if the scale is as big as seems likely then I’m afraid MORI do need to alter their methodology. It may be true that, like sending a rocket to the moon, if you are slightly out in one calculation you can miss by a mile. Nevertheless this is very poor of MORI and just not good enough. They clearly now have to take on board YouGov’s methodology or they will be disregarded as a laughing stock. In particular:
1. Weighting by past voting
2. Internet polling
143 - PfP is as partisan as they come. Don’t be fooled by his carefully cultivated persona, based mainly on his age
If Lab -400 is wrong - are Cons at +260?
138 Ave it. Watford …. Oh you poor soul !!!
Mayor .. Council .. and soon MP !!
Conservatives Losing There !!
LOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
Right, I am off down the pub!
145 - You include notional seats in General Elections why not in locals?
147 exactly- where are balls and cooper?
147. Wa thinking the same, him and his wife. No Jacqui Smith either, She must be worried.
Brent and Harrow appears to be the ethnic vote in action. It has had an effect in quite a few elections.
2004:
‘Bob Blackman’ Conservative 34.0% vs. ‘Toby Harris’ Labour 30.0%
2008
‘Bob Blackman’ Conservative 35.4% vs. ‘Navin Shah’ Labour vs 36.4%
I guess being called Shah can add 6% to your vote in that sort of area.
Expect to see a ‘Muhammed’ or similar for the Tories in 2012.
145 the notional losses ie computing notional results in the previous election and then comparing the actual result, is correct - the same thing is done in a GE when there are boundary changes….
148, Aye but Brown is likely to reshuffle. He could choose to crap on Darling.
152. Boris is on 46% after first 7 seats. But he still has 6 good seats to come so could well get 48% - 50% in my view.
160 - to be fair, the BBC don’t include notional seats as gains/losses in General Elections. Or they certainly didn’t use to!
165. Darling is not the weak link, Brown is……
The first mayoral result is in City & East (see London Elects). Ken runs ahead of the assembly result amassing a 44k lead.
153 Because some authories are 3 seats per ward , if a different party wins it compared to 2005 is it 1 2 or 3 losses
146. you said ‘can be’ unintentional, and was there an ‘or not’ in the first post?
I’ve not been a pollster for a decade plus, but I’ll say this clearly and strongly: polling errors are never, never intentional.
163: If I were Teather I’d be terrified. The Jamaicans of Harlsden appear to have come out in force for Labour. This can only be excellent news for Brent’s (Jamaican heritage) Labour MP Dawn Butler.
tories 5 short of a majority…………… yawn
152 - is the 46% a projection or a running total?
Merton & Wandsworth is looking like a 16%-ish Tory majority; that’d be a 1.5% swing from 2004.
165. Yokel: “Aye but Brown is likely to reshuffle. He could choose to crap on Darling.”
That would be an act of extreme political cowardice given the influence Brown has exercised over the treasury since becoming PM.
161. Cooper was on Channel 4 News earlier. Guru-Murthy gave her an absolute drubbing. It was almost Paxman/Howardesque.
The result of the French presidential election was known within about an hour of the polls closing. This clownshoe count is dragging on forever.
Just got in after one of the regular Broxtowe canvasses - quite restful not to have an imminent election, back to the old “not sure, but there’s time yet, eh?’ responses. But I’m confused by the constituency reports here. Do these figures includes 2nd prefs? If so, why is that done by constituency before (in principle) the overall top two are known? (Sorry if it’s been answered on an earlier thread.)
168, Yes but is Gordon going to reshuffle himself?
No.
We always use notional results. Staggered you are suggesting otherwise Mr Waller.
I can’t believe notionals were done properly for the new councils’ wards. Believe me, it’s very, very difficult! R+T didn’t do them. Anthony Wells didn’t do them.
173 - Your heart not really in it tonight, Rod?
158 hello Jack - yes i wasnt overjoyed with the result in Watford. But in the GE the mighty OAKLEY will win!
In London its twitchy ARSE time!
176, And you think such an act of cowardice is beyond him?
He may not do it but its not beyond him.
here’s a comment from the Evening Standard’s comments:
‘In Brent and Harrow for years Labour took it for granted the large Asian vote, around 30%. Both the London and Tory worked with the Asian community and in Harrow nearly produced a total wipe-of of Labour. The Labour ex-leader Cll Navin Shah just scraped through to hold on to his ward seat. In the meantime the Tories started engaging with the ethnic residents such as planning approval for the first state funded Hindu school which was opposed by Labour candidate Cll Navin Shah.
Also interesting to note after 2006 local elections the Tories made a historical breakthrough , becoming the party with largest number of Asian councillors, a bedrock of grass roots support.
Asian in Harrow and Brent has wised up and Labour candidates will have to work very hard to win back the Asian vote long take for granted by labour as in the bag.’
Seems like the Shah chap was Labour deciding to win some of ‘their’ ethnic vote back. Shah was endorsed by the Muslim Association of Britain
174. After 7 seats, actual results:
Boris 46%
Ken 40%
To come - 6 Boris seats, 1 Ken seat.
Sorry if this is old news…..but the London Elects web site has finally got some results:
Livingston 50.6%
Johnson 26.5%
Paddick: 6.8%
http://results.londonelects.org.uk/Results/MayoralResultConstituency.aspx?id=4
179 bellend
Not long until Newsnight, I wonder if Paxman will be on and who the labour lamb to the slaughter will be?
Would you be a Conservative by any chance, Mr Roe?!
179, first preferences only.
178. Exactly. It was efficient, well-run and the results came online very quickly.
Whoever runs this election needs to review the situation in time for 2012.
It’s all very well using notional results when the whole country’s boundaries have changed. But why not avoid thye ambiguity in this case and split the few shadow councils out from all the other results?
188 was that from yr 2000?
181 - who is we?
Totals so far (5 declared, Brent&Harrow, bexley, east, redbridge&havering, north east)
Cons 316,918 (35.64)
Labour 260,339 (29.28)
L-D 95,679 (10.76)
Green 65,839 (7.40)
CPA 26,750 (3.01)
Respect 26,760 (3.01)
UKIP 26,323 (2.96)
BNP 18,020 (2.03)
Eng Dem 17,229 (1.94)
NF 13,638 (1.53)
Other 10,835 (1.22)
Government strategy over London mayoral loss:
Its Ken’s personal defeat.
182- Fair enough. But the BBC could still therefore be descibed as kind to Labour even if we don’t highlight the same number as Sky News. The ‘real’ switch to the Tories and away from Labour must be more than the BBC are reporting if they are not including thousands of votes from last night.
Cooper was on the Channel 4 News, making a balls of it ironically enough.
He has dissappeared. As much courage as Gordon? Or a stategic hideout. Obviously that is what Gordon used to do, all the while desperate for the top job, believing he could do it better. History repeats itself…
188: refered to City & East
Now North East:
Livingston: 48.6%
Johnson: 28.9%
Paddick: 9.9%
Re 197:
That’s just the FPTP Assembly vote
Ken runs ahead in NE London as well:
Ken 48.6%
Boris 28.94%
179. Not sure what you mean, Nick, but there aren’t second preferences in the GLA constituencies: just straight FPTP, so they’re quicker to announce than the Mayoral results. Some of the Mayoral results by constituency are out, but not many.
Brown Central is trying to compare whats going on now to John Major Nov 1990-April 1992. Now, we know this analogy doesn’t fit as far as the opinion polls go, because Major improved the Conservatives opinion polls ratings consistently between late 1990 and early 1992 (they were still poor, but not as dire as they had been from 89-90) Where-as Brown had his little bounce and Labour is now in a worse position than they were under Blair in the opinion polls.
So what about real elections. How did John Major do in terms of national share of the vote in the 1991 local elections?
185. Yokel: “And you think such an act of cowardice is beyond him?”
Maybe not.
After his decade long sniping at Blair, he clearly has a problem with loyalty - both giving and receiving.
Shah was also endorsed by some Tamil group:
“In a similar vain I will urge you to vote for Councillor Navin Shah in Harrow and Brent. He always supported the Tamils be it Tsunami, Tamil as an official language or a rally at Trafalgar square. “
204 - Nick obviously didn’t take the time to understand the electoral system
Despite all the hype and silly extrapolations, the overall swings from 2004 are quite modest, seemingly in the 4-5% range. Not enough for a Tory majority…
197. Ummm. Maybe the BNP wont make that London wide seat based on that.
28 quid on Betfair at 2’s…I’m torn.
171 many here hhave commented on mori’s perceived bias to Labour many times in the past. Lack of intention is not relevant when asessing a pattern of overstating party a, and understating party b. The firm will need to explain why it sticks with its methodolgy if the results are as predicted.
Has West Central declared? Could anyone point me in the direction of the figures? Thanks.
209. In London or nationwide?