Has Harriet conceded that London is lost?
May 2nd, 2008
Is this bad news for Ken?
After reading Stehert’s comment on the previous thread I’ve just watched the GMTV morning news when it looked as though the Labour Deputy Leader, Harriet Harman, was conceding defeat in London.
When pressed on the Mayoral race she said that she “did not expect the London result to be any different to the rest of the country.”
Certainly there’s been a lot of Tory celebrations and I was amazed that ConservativeHome was ready to call it for the party just after the polls closed last night.
We have not seen any hard numbers but the general impression is that there were signgicant increases in turnout in the out London Tory controlled boroughs.
Latest Mayoral betting is here.
Mike Smithson
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It’s not making much difference on Betfair yet.
From Today’s Metro (London edition) - page 4:
Metro exit poll win for Livingstone
“Ken Livingstone is on course for a convincing win over Conservative opponent Boris Johnson if an exit poll carried out by Metro yesterday is accurate. The poll was carried out in three London boroughs - the Labour stronghold of Lewisham, the Liberal Democrat-held seat of Brent East and traditional Tory heartland Barnet.
THe final tally showed the incumbent mayor taking aroudn 55 per cent of the vote. He won in Lewisham, Willesden Green and, despite coming second on first preferences, drew level when second preferences were totted up in Barnet.
Although scoring very well on second preferences, Brian Paddick took just nine percent of first preference votes in our poll… 18 percent of second votes [for] Mr Paddick. Sian Berry took 2.5 per cent of first preferences but the 15 percent of second preference votes bodes well for the Green candidate’s Assembly bid.”
2
as soon as Boris was selected I said he’d win, to general mirth iirc, apart from the omniscient Sean Fear.
well done BoJo, tough luck Polly, Heffer, Simon Jenkins et al.
4 well as I had a bet with Nick Palmer on BoJo before he was even selected I think I got there before you
Are we likely to get any hints at the result prior to it actually being announced?
2 - It’s still possible. But that poll is skewed towards Livingstone (Ken lives in Willesden Green after all, so he’ll naturally do well there) and won’t reflect outer London turnout at all.
I see Mike’s ability to find flattering photos of his subjects continues to know no bounds!
2. Unless done by a reputable pollster, I wouldn’t trust it. Apart from anything else, taking one Tory area, one Labour area and one Lib Dem-ish area to get ‘balance’ is a statistical nonsense unless there’s some clever stuff done afterwards. I’d have thought that including Brent as an area was asking for trouble?
re 6. I seem to recall from 2004 that the GLA results come first and we’ll a sense of the turnouts in different areas.
She certainly seems to have.
If Ken were to win it would put a little gloss on otherwise awful results for Labour, but were he to lose the word ‘meltdown’ could start being used to a reasonable degree of accuracy.
People scoffed at Yougov’s 18pt Tory lead, but in the locals the got 20pts ahead of Labour. That won’t be repeated in the general election of course, but it’s still a very strong sign for Cameron.
9 I sent you an email Mike.
re 8. I think that was from a screen grab I took of an interview with Harriet at the height of the her campaign donations problem.
Polly was effectively conceding this last night you could see her evident discomfiture.
The Conservatives held their seat in the by-election in Dumfries and Galloway yesterday.
Well done boris (hopefully)….but why was Portillo quite so negative about him last night? The 1st Conservative Mayor of London and Portillo could barely conceal his contempt.
15. I have a feeling Portillo had his eyes on it at some point.
Apparently, all the London local byes have gone with the GLA ballots to the counting centres, and will be announced at some point.
15, didn’t see Portillo. What did he say?
4 well done kingbongo, though I did too, I said it when he announced his candidacy. (need coffee). Maybe we could get a link to that thread!
Hooray! I love the smell of victory in the morning!
btw best moment of the night was question time when polly lecturing the nation about global warming was skewered by littlejohn telling the audience of her villa in italy…how does she get there he wondered. She was, alas only momentarily lost for words.
Harriet Harman’s comment could be read another way: as a claim that results will be no worse in London. If so, that is quite interesting in itself.
21 - It would be terribly hard for them to be a great deal worse wouldn’t it.
Just been looking at my April payslip. Being a high earner, I expected to benefit from Gordon’s tax cut for me at the expense of the poor, but even I have seen my take home pay go DOWN £7 this month.
So much for that then…
21 — Harriet Harman might not have a clue.
Tories gain Vale of Glam
20. She stumbled on but tried to change the subject. The thing is I can’t stand Littlejohn, can’t stand him. But he didn’t actually start the spat, she did. He just finished it, rather swiftly I might add.
As a less optimistic Tory than those declaring it for Boris on ConHome[shudder], how can they know?
Are their leaks from polling stations that put it so far out there that there can be no doubt?
I hope Toryhome is not scrapping cold omlette off its face at 7pm this evening.
22. Well, to me it appears they might have benefited from an ‘Iraq-unwind’ from the Lib Dems in some areas.
So any idea on when the next council will announce?
I most enjoyablenight. Thanks for keeping thing going so well Mike and Robert.
Award for most deluded comment of the night has to go to Geof Hoon in his assessment that it was a bad night for David Cameron. No crisis for Labour!!
Mike please can you please invite Bob Worcester and Peter Kellner for a q&a session if they are available this weekend ?
It should brighten up the long weekend ahead of us.
sky interactive poll has 94% saying brown must go now!!!
30. Really? He said that? He’s either deluded or being thick.
I think Portillo’s descent into bitching and whining is very sad. He was just ridiculous last night amid a great night for the Conservatives.
Trying to pretend that a 20% lead over Labour and ward wins from Bury to Sunderland was not good enough made him look as much of a clown as Hoon.
I was a bit dissapointed with Spellman not taking on Ed Milliband on his wierd idealogical point. I think the country has absolutely had enough of massive intrusive government and ‘tax and waste’ from Labour and she should have told him so.
22 - fair point, but everything is possible.
30- Hoon “The tories should be on 110%, without the alternate universe vote, how can they win an election?”
33 - The funniest part was when Dimbleby was skewering him and he pretended his earpiece was malfunctioning.
37. Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear. Hoon has gone from being quite a major member of the labour party to being a joke.
32. NNOOoooo!!!! Calling all Tories. Get on there and vote for Brown NOW!
This is Bloomsbury last night from one of the Girls, if it’s of interest.
Hello we’re both back home now, half an hour til the polls close, but
> others are finishing off the telephone knocking up as we started at the
> crack of dawn.. people very pleased to give their polling
> number, and smiling at the red rosettes - quite a few clearly wanted to
> communicate that they had done their bit and go Ken - and everyone at
> all the polling stations round here said they had a similar impression.
> Later on did knocking up round Fitzroy Square and Charlotte Street, and
>’ yes thank you we have voted we went specially this morning first thing,
> keep going you’re doing a good job’, people said,
> so that was encouraging too, though through thunder and lightning at
> one point as the heavens opened. But then the sun came out again, and
> I’m exhausted from walking for miles, but there are worse places to
> walk through than central proper London in the Springtime so it was
> nice, just i’m very tired from mentally sending highpitched urgency
> signals exhorting everyone i passed to just go and VOTE .. come on
> London you can do it.
Voting is more than just electing a candidate; the high turn-out is good news for our democratic system, whoever you’re supporting.
Apols if anyone’s already mentioned elsewhere, but can we clarify - BBC this am were saying the turnout was lless than 10% - bearing in mind the figures published here earlier in the week (about those saying they were certain to vote etc) does that lean it towards Boris?
sorry but re-posting from the previous thread;
3 observations from an exciting night;
1-JackW is as enigmatic as ever- his teaming up with Andrea looks to be a formidable combination. A lot rides on the accuracy of Jack’s exit poll.
2-Mike Smithson made one of the funniest posts ever- the imposter arrived to the scene when Mike said he was having his supper. Did the imposter know Mike’s supper habits?
3-The Beeb TV was appalling- but get yourself a small digital wireless, some headphones and go to bed tuned in to 5 live. Lulling in and out of sleep you keep up with the election, do not get overly tired the next day, do not keep your partner awake, it is simply wonderful incisive coverage, and no ADs.
The TV is dead- long live the radio.
4 - I thought Simon Jenkins was for Boris.
Rather taken aback by Portillo’s opening remarks on the awful BBC programme and notice it’s being used by beeb Tory “fans” - interviewer on Breakfast to Spelman - “Boris as mayor is going to be a real problem for you”.
Gave up on pb.c last night when it crashed. I blame the fool who said it’s quiet here, its usually buzzing by now (you know who you are)just before the deluge. Went downstairs to watch telly. BBC coverage drove me to bed.
Peter Snow was FAR WORSE than Vine. He believed what he was doing. I think Vine knows its complete rubbish.
Can anyone explain how Lab have lost 212 seats on Sky, but only 162 on BBC ?
32. Good point…we want McSporran to stay right where he is.
Must be “the kiss of death” from Harriet
She said Mr Brown is “absolutely” the right man to listen and to lead as Prime Minister.
“I think against a background of economic concerns really there is nobody with more experience and more commitment to take the country through,” Ms Harman said.
18: From memory Portillo said Cameron sacked Boris for good reasons, he wasn’t anywhere near their first choice, and Tories would be very nervous about whether he’d do something embarrassing as Mayor.
Haven’t read all the threads from last night, but can report from the Heanor results I was worried about with the big BNP effort - they did indeed take two Heanor seats (one of them they’d missed by just 15 votes last time), and missed the third where I’d spent most of my own time by ONE vote - so a bit of personal consolation there!
London - some of you will have seen my long and frank post from 11 hours of phone canvassing. Essentially I think we did get about 65% of our maximum potential vote out where we’d identified it, but we were hampered by sketchy voter ID in some boroughs. There didn’t seem to be either a pro-Boris or pro-Ken effect anywhere - people were simply voting on general ‘feel’ about the wider scene - so I agree with the comment that London is likely to follow a similar pattern to elsewhere, but on a higher turnout from both sides. I think Paddick will have been badly squeezed, and if the Tory GOTV effort was as good or better than ours - as posters here have suggested - then they should win.
As for the wider scene, a comment that I’ve not seen made often. The oddity about 2005 is that both major parties did badly - both 36% and 34% are ‘core vote’ results that normally lose GEs. The Labour London effort shows it’s possible to get the core vote out and I think it’s perfectly possible that Labour will get at least 36% at the next GE (yes, I know we got 24% projected last night, but that’s close to 2004 and you know what happened in 2005). But if the Tories get 40+%, they’ll win easily enough on that basis.
For a Tory victory not to happen, one of two things is needed. Either Labour needs to attract significant LibDem support in the marginals, or serious doubts about a potential Tory government need to emerge as it becomes a more immediate prospect, pulling them back towards their 2005 result. I can see potential for both (e.g. in my seat, there is an 18% LibDem vote and a Lib-Lab coalition locally), so Labour readers shouldn’t take the poison pills yet, but a bit of serious collective discipline and focus woud be a good idea.
Theres only one fact that matters this morning;
Con 44% Lab 24% Lin 25%
Brown has no legitimacy to rule this country. The country clearly don’t want him and he is staring a certain general election defeat in the face. These are the facts! Now, what are Labour going to do about it?
39- sally- do not get uptight about this. Brown will not fight the next election for Labour, get used to it.
I will be very surprised if Labour are third in votes when all the counting has ended.
They should be miles in front of the Lib Dems on votes in Greater London for example.
I worry about the BBC making such projections when loads and loads of seats remain to be counted.
I was also very surprised they ran that all night broadcast when it only covered some of the results.
The days of the overnight declarations are fast going, and as one who has had to attend those counts, good riddance.
Morning All,
(34) Personally I got fed up before midnight by the BBC’s efforts not to look bored (even Champagne Charlie looked like he couldn’t be bothered!), so I missed the Portillo stuff.
Does anyone have any idea what his agenda is? I like the guy but I’ve become increasingly bemused by his repeated insistence on This Week that the Tories cannot possibly win the next GE. Is it just that he can’t stand Cameron doing what he felt he should be doing himself?
Rob
51 - Portillo is his agenda, it always has been.
By the way, a general warning for punters especially: Mike’s protection against fakes won’t work for me as my email address is well-known. If I ever appear to post some surprising inside information (something I’m anyway unlikely to do) that would affect your betting, suggest awaiting confirmation. Come to that, if I seem to say anything wildly out of character, ditto.
47- Guy on the BBC show last night said that tactical voting by lib dems has been stitching from pro-labour to pro-tory.
Ooh BBC quoting Downing St ‘insiders’ saying Boris has won.
Sky reporting downing street saying there has been a massive turnout in the outer boroughs.
47. With respect Nick, you’ve just faced a 95/96 style drubbing in the face. You didn’t lose thousands of councillors because of the seats conested, but you certainly could have done on this vote share. You leader has faced no election from his party. No election from the country. And in the one electoral test he has now faced, he’s humiliated. You WILL lose unless you remove Brown, it has become inevitable.
53- Nick- you risk putting ideas in people’s heads.
(Nick Palmer Clone) I would like to announce that after careful thought, I have decided to……have a sex change. I would like you all to refer to me by my new name, Nicola Palmer.
All hail the moon god. Ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm……
Ian Gibson talking about the rejuvenating the party through nationalisation and union rights. That sounds like a winner. Not.
49. Nick, apologies for stating the obvious, but governments win and lose elections (except in 1992, when the opposition lost it more badly than the government did). If Labour is to win, it needs to get its act together and start acting like a listening and effective government with a sense of purpose and some idea of where it is going and why. Obviously, these things need to chime together (ie the public’s agenda is also that which is driving the government). I’m not convinced they can.
53. Nick, I know it’s a pain, but to guard against that would you consider using a different (brand new) email address just for this purpose?
I don’t know where the Lib Demsstand on seats. Not too bad judging by the comments on here.
But,this morning Today were reporting that their overall share [in terms of projected national vote?] was down a percentage point or two.
This may get lost in the media chatter, but I doubt if the LibDems will not assess this more critically privately.
You WILL lose unless you remove Brown, it has become inevitable.
They would definitely lose if they get rid of Brown, as that’d be the end of any party unity or discipline for the remainder or the Parliament. IMO, Brown isn’t the main problem: Labour simply doesn’t have a policy platform that can unite its 1997 coalition, and the electorate as a whole has lost trust in the govenrment’s capacity to deliver. Brown might not have a clue how to deal with this, but there’s no evidence anyone else does.
53. I thought the software check the computer id as well? If so, only someone in your office could impersonate you. If it’s only an either-or, then you’re right - and probably so are some others.
61 - When is your result due? Best of luck.
47. Nick, that must count as perhaps your frankest and least spun post ever.
Daid Herdson- it is incredible though looking at the quality of the Labour front bench now, as opposed to 97.
This is the weakest government team in my memory- reminiscent of the Tory shadow bench after 1997.
Brown, in ensuring that he got his hands on power with no election, also purged the front bench of any big hitters. His only possible rival was given the foreign office.
The Tory front bench is much stronger than Labour
64. But Brown has just been defeated severely in the only electoral test he’s ever faced. He has no legitmacy to run this country, from what I can see. The public quite clearly don’t want him. Even if it doesn’t turn Labour fortunes around, he should still go.
39- sally- do not get uptight about this. Brown will not fight the next election for Labour, get used to it.
by Tyson May 2nd, 2008 at 9:08 am
No. I won’t I tell you I won’t [putting fingers in ears lah lah lah lah ]
BBC: Brown to give interview in half an hour
71. Annoucing his resignation, maybe?
Oh God I have just seen Jeremy Vine with Nick Clegg in the wild wild west…I think I am going to be sick…
71 Could it be his resignation? !
72: I would hope he would wait until the London Mayor results for that
Yes, BBC was a glorious car crash TV moment.
Nick Palmer, you are Gabble’s more erudite but no less deluded older brother, and I claim my £2500.
63. As I implied above, I’m sure some of the votes the Lib Dems picked up over Iraq in 2004 went back to Labour, so it could have even been worse for Labour!
The Tory result in Southampton is sensational - when was the last time they controlled te city?
(68) Given the media exposure that ministers enjoy, I can’t remember a time when the shadow cabinet seemed more impressive man-for-man than the cabinet.
But you’re right, at the moment it’s true! And I really never expected to say that of a shadow cabinet containing George Osbourne.
4
I think Simon Jenkins backed Boris?
Congratulations to the Tories, commiserations to Labour, not bad Libdems you seem to have resisted the blue tide at least.
The curse of the third term has struck once again, Brown’s only hope of resisting it was a GE last October, he chose not to go, (against my advice) he will now suffer the consequences.
79- Acording to the BBC Election site…no idea. It was Labour controlled in 96,98,99, then NOC in the last 6 elections.
on second thoughts, resignation would be a courageous act!!!, Brown is like Jim Hacker in that respect.
84 (and others) - some gracious comments this morning, as members of the same little community here I think that’s worthy of respect.
79 Not sure of the facts , but pundits were saying there were special factors affecting Southampton
84 - doh, I meant 81.
68. I agree.
80. Labour 1995-7 probably were, though it was closer than it is now
66. The count is this morning. Result probably about 12.30, maybe later as a recount is a distinct possibility. Thanks for your wishes.
47, 57 Yes I have to agree - I just can’t see Labour winning under Brown. No good asking him to be a different person, change his character etc - wishful thinking - you might as well have asked Maggie T to become more like Florence Nightingale - not humanly possible, and the electorate wouldn’t buy it anyway. They have already made up their minds that Brown is not up to the job. Nick and his colleagues now have an opportunity to correct the error that was made when they chose Brown - if they seize it with both hands they will give themselves a fighting chance of holding their seats at the next election. If they don’t they’re sunk. Simple as that.
If Stonch and his flat beer blog are reading … doesn’t he owe Sean Fear an apology?
Has anybody seen Mark Senior? Hopefully this result will put an end to his nonsense of judging where the political stand nationally, on individual by election results!
90. Are the Worthing results out yet - they will be the key barometer for the nation, as Mark correctly asserted last year.
88. Cirrect. You know, I was amazed as Labour minister after minister trudged into the TV studio last night, and attempted to play down what was going on. Nick has done it on here. Are these people living in a differant universe to the rest of us? This election is up there with the most shocking drubbings in British political history. Just because Labour didn’t lose a couple of thousand of councillors doesn’t make the vote share any less horrific. The country has sent Labour a BIG message - Will Labour hear it?
How the Daily Mash sees the results
http://tinyurl.com/6e3×5k
Can I just plug my prediction qualities;
I said last night that the Tories would reach 45% of the popular vote;
I predicted last week that Hillary would win Penn by 10%
Not bad
I see Harriet Harman is adopting the same approach to the next general as Labour took in the mayor in that the Conservatives will be exposed, or that they will gaffe, or that something will come up.
71. It’s not impossible. Or a General Election announcement? He has no personal mandate and the media will run with this vote as being a rejection of his Premiership, further undermining and seeping away his authority.
2. Is this just made up/ a joke? I have a copy here and there is no mention of an exit poll. Also no mention on Metro website.
96 - Page 4 of today’s Metro (London edition).
the idiot blears now on sky. my god how could someone as stupid as her ever get into government
Firstly congratulations to PBers on the excellent overnight service and in particular to Mike and Robert for keeping the show on the road.
Remember folks, plenty more councils to declare today and counting has started in London.
Thanks to all for their kind comments to moi and Andrea …. we are to paraphrase CNN “The Finest Political Team Not On Television”
Have to say it’s squeeky bottom time over at ARSE and we prepare to face the music over our PB exclusive London Mayor Exit Poll …. reposted below :
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of the ARSE exit poll for the London Mayor
PISSED with added SOAMES weighting shows :
BORIS JOHNSON 56% .. KEN LIVINGSTONE 44%
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN …… ..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED …Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
88-Gin- unfortunately I think that Brown believes that the drubbing is due to the poor economic climate (out of his control), and a hostile media (out of his control).
This is very much turkey with head buried in sand stuff- we all know the problems are much deeper.
I get the feeling that Brown and his coterie just cannot see it.
Brown is without a shadow of doubt the worst leader the Labour party has ever had by a country mile
95- I’ll give you odds of 100-1 that Brown doesnt announce either an election or resigns. (Maximum Bet allowed 1 pence)
Spot the contradiction:
We will listen more.
We will continue bravely making difficlut long term decisions…
(i.e no change).
I belive it’s called driving off a cliff.
And the economy is slowing down… it unfortunately can and will get worse.
95 - No chance he will resign, no election announcement he hasn’t been to the palace. He will just repeat the listening and learning mantra.
“9.38: BBC’s Carole Walker says Downing Street fears a Boris win resulting from high turnout in the suburbs”
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/
97. My London edition doesn’t have it. Perhaps a different edition? Can anyone else confirm they have seen it?
98-tenpole- oy, you- lay off Hazel.
Harman, Kelly, Cooper, Smyth, Jowell- fair game of course, but not Hazel you swine.
100 - Worse than George Lansbury or Michael Foot?
So no one knows why Sky are reporting an extra 50 labour seats more lost than the BBC?
Morning all.
For those with longer memories, how did the council elections in the mid-90s compare for sheer collapse in support for the government?
The tide has most definitely turned now, which not only permanently damages Brown but Labour as well. If he was to go, who could really replace him?
As for London, it might be better for Labour to hope Boris wins, because if Ken gets it, they’ll use that as proof they’re on the right track etc - which other results suggest they’re certainly not
106 Tyson sorry i didnt know she was so important to you. pls accept my humble apology
Repeal the Identity Cards Act of 2006!
Blears is just ridiculous. Is this all they have in the armous? ‘the Tories are now going to be judged on their policy and basically they have none anyway?’. Doesn’t seem to stop Magpie Brown from stealing Tory policy!
what about You Gov v Mori, has it been discussed?
99- Jack boy- something tells me you have called this one well.
If Ken wins well, an act of hari kari may well see the demise of JackW. And before he managed to reach his 106 birthday! Ain’t gonna happen though.
Blears now stating that people really don’t like Tory policy when they see it. Hazel pet, look at the results and hold your hands up. Incredibly stupid woman.
112- I remember her on the last BBC Election show saying all night “Labout havent had a meltdown blah blah blah, tories only on 40% blah blah blah” *OVER* and *OVER* and *OVER* again.
Boris creeping out to 1.27 - should his short-odds backers be a bit alarmed, or is value at that price?
I haven’t ventured a guess on London so far, but I think it is pretty clear that Johnson will have won. FWIW I share the Portillo that it is probably a moment of high risk for the Tories. Johnson will probably screw up, will sound too much like Cameron, and isn’t a moderniser.
109 - It is very similar, but the Conservatives were always second. The gap in 1995 for instance was 22% Labour went on to win the next election 2 years later. The gap last night was 20%, with an election due in 2 years….
“Labour and Tory officials are both privately predicting that the Conservative Boris Johnson will be elected mayor of London when the results of the mayoral contest are announced this afternoon.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/01/localelections.london08
90. If YouGov are right about the mayorals….I expect that Mark will be at home baking a large humble pie and delivering it to Anthony Wells/Peter Kellner.
Interesting to see who is rolled out on TV today I can’t abide Hazel Blears or Harriet Harman but at least they have come out into the light [not that either of them would give credit where were rolls versed].
Perhaps they are fighting their own corner with a reshuffle on the cards?
120. Cue articles in the Indy and Guardian about how the voters got it wrong and should be disenfranchised until they are re-programmed?
114 Tyson. Yup …. the big boys …. and gal pollsters are looking over their shoulders at my ARSE.
Me thinks the Japanese kithcen ware will not be required this time !!
107 Not sure about Lansbury but Foot at least had the support of quite a large swathe of the activists - the majority probably - and had been elected by the PLP after a contest. Brown has the support of a small number of acolytes in the PLP and no one else. If my CLP (in inner London) is anything to go by most of the activists are bewildered and angry at his crass performance.
If we are berating the BBC for a lack of numbers, someone on here should know why there is a 50 seat difference in the seat figures. 50 is quite a significant number, isn’t it ?
110- tenpole- a humble apology is just not good enough for referring to the sweet angel Hazel as an idiot. You must get a photo of her, frame it, and pay homage every day to the joy she brings to the world.
112– Chris Myers- how dare you call Hazel ridiculous! And never refer to her surname. Rude, downright rude to such a wonderful creation of chipmonkness.
Cheeky of the BBC to cut to Tony Blair!
117 Andy D. Easy money. Boris IS mayor !!
105 - I have sent you an email with the scanned article.
123 - The world wide diaspora of Hershamites salutes your pert peach botty (of a poll that is) to a man.
Referendum: Wheeler has won his case and has permission to apply for court order to force govt to hold Lisbon Treaty referendum (BBC News channel, breaking now)
117- value andy- people are cashing in on their profits happy I guess with their winnings
Am I alone (as Boris supporter) in finding the willingness of downing street to concede London victory (BBC: “Downing Street fears Boris Win”) slightly ominous?
More expectation management perhaps, or are my nerves simply frayed from watching the eejit in the Cowboy outfit making a prick of himself all night at the licence payer’s expense?
129. Thanks for that.
125 - The BBC probably have a higher threshold for putting up gains and losses so that they don’t have to adjust etc.
A great night for the Tories
A disappointing night for the LibDems
An embarrassingly awful night for the pathetic BBC
An even more embarrassing night for bitter,twisted whinger Portillo
A truly dismal night for Labour
Most of the media chatter this morning is about whether or not Brown should resign or should they attempt to force him out? I think he will hang on for the time being but with everything falling down around his ears and massive defeat staring him in the face at the next GE, I think he will do his customarily bottling act and resign (on health grounds?) beforehand. The Bottler has never undertaken a straight fight in his life and always runs away unless he is assured of victory.
As for Boris, he’s still on for the win by a margin of at least 4% IMO.
Well done Cameron, the country’s next PM!
130 John O. Thank you Hershyman. You’ll have noted the Jacobite blessings surged the blue tide to victory in wider Elmbridge and did for the repulsive one too !!! ….. as promised.
128/132 - cheers Jack W & Tyson, I will hold my nerve…
135 voxpox. 4% !!!! tish and nonsense. Some faint hearted Tory you are !!!!
14 - I was confident we would hold that seat from the minute Mark Senior said there was a good chance we would lose it.
A threshold making a 30% difference in seats - that’s some threshold.
A rather tired head this morning. Overall very good for the Conservatives, unrelentingly bad for Labour. As a Lib Dem I feel a certain satisfaction that, agaainst expectations, we seem to be ending up slightly ahead. Good results in Colchester, Cheltenham, St Albans, Hull, Gosport, Exeter.
As far as London is concerned, I think Ken could well poll more than 10% above the national poll rating for Labour… but it still won’t be enough. “For what we are about to receive….”
135 I think Brown will be gone by the Party Conference, and possibly sooner.
Can somebody with their finger on the pulse tell me when we will hear about North Tyneside? (If) the Conservatives have taken it then it will probably be one of their headline gains no doubt.
Voxpop: Have you been drinking bong water? A “disappointing” night for the LDs? The LDs beat the government into 3rd place and gain councilors, and you think that isnt a good result? Laughable. For weeks nearly everyone, especially Tories, have been saying that the LDs will lose at least 50 seats. Heck, even most LDs thought they would lose net seats! Most LD activists will be chuffed this morning, I can tell you that…
142 - Not a hope.
100 Tyson, I’m sure you realise that Brown is mad. He’s probably as mad and as deluded as Hitler was in his bunker as the Red Army were entering Berlin.
Brown is also an inveterate coward though and will bottle it before the next general election. I’m sure he’s already lined up some nice little number at the IMF or suchlike.
Picked this up from Ben Brogan’s blog
‘final cute word to Fraser Nelson on the Beeb just now who pointed out that Gordon Brown lives in a Lib Dem constituency in a country run by the SNP and works in a town about to be run by a Tory.’
Goodo.
There was a lovely house in in Highgate (Haringey) with an LD poster in the window - and another saying save London from Ken - urging everyone to vote to get Ken out. I really hope so!
142. Who will replace Cameron as PM when he has to resign in 2011 after losing 300 seats in the local elections?
GIN, Brown has every right to stay as PM until a General Election hasto be called by law. Just as John Major did in pretty much the same circumstances.
Whether he’s wise to do that is another question. I expect him just to mouth platitudes, but he could copy Major, resign and offer himself for re-election: the inner-party turmoil could hardly be worse and Cruddas/Denham would probably get enough MPs to nominate them this time. He’ll only do this though if he’s been threated with Cabinet resignations which is not impossible.
85 - Yes Southampton’s been a bit odd. The Tories ran a very effective campaign. After all, they were briefly in control after the last election, but then got kicked out by the Lib/Lab pact. This allowed them to say “a vote for a LibDem is as good as a vote for Labour”, which is a powerful message. Plus people felt there were unfairly removed from their elected position.
The most effective bit of campaigning was about parking charges. There was a report which suggested that parking charges COULD be introduced for all residents. Nothing more was done about it, but the Tories put it around that they Lib/Lab pact WAS planning this, but they would never do this. A very powerful message.
144 The Lib Dem share slipped from 26% under Ming to 25% under Clegg, if you’re not disappointed by that then you must be tripping
138 I’m not a die-hard Tory though I’ll be supporting them to get rid of this lying, thieving, incompetent Labour administration.
150 If he resigns and offers himself to the Party for re-election he would certainly lose. His position is that weak. My money would be on Johnson, but there are other possibilities - Straw, Denham, Miliband to name but three.
150 - Doing a Major, though, wouldn’t change anything. Perhaps it might pull Brown to the left, which would hardly improve his position against Cameron.
Has Brown come out of the bunker to make a statement yet? He’s supposed to be doing it around 10am.
He should be all tantrummed out by now!
Aside form the obvious congrats to the Tories, commiseration to New Labour ( although you only have yourself to blame), the Lib Dems did well in my view. Their vote at the last election was artificially high with the anti war vote which they were the main beneficiaries of. Now the war is no longer an issue they can be quite happy with the fact that generally they didn’t suffer from a sharp comedown.
Locally in Stockport they took a seat from Labour in the biggest council house area and unexpectedly lost to a Tory who spend more time in the pub than I do!!
Brown looks absolutely pole-axed.
Brown making his statement live on TV now. He looks like a washed-up, sickly old man. The usual nonsense so far….listening more…blah.blah
Brown just looks annoyed at the impertinence of the questions.
Gordon looks ill. Very ill.
Brown citing passages from ‘Courage’?
“Take country through diifcult times…. firm decisions… long term… difficult economy…. uncertainty… blah blah blah….”
No change there then.
Brown is completely flat and lacking in any conviction whatsoever. His spirit is broken. Making excuses now that none of it his fault, all the fault of the global problems etc
BTW Was that a nurse standing next to him?
The Times says turnout in inner London reached 45%, and in outer London reached 65%!!!! I’m just wondering if anyone ‘on the ground’ can more-or-less confirm these figures…. amazing if accurate.
Brown: tractor output slightly down… disappointing… courage, comrades… Oh, and it sounded as though he kissed Ken goodbye last night.
Gordon’s new tractor speech. Listen…lead….America’s fault…long term decisions…America’s fault….test of leadership is how you do in bad times…food prices…fuel prices….mortgages….still listening…still making difficult decisions…..still America’s fault…..
New SUSA Primary poll for Oregon :
Clinton 44% .. Obama 50%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=cd35ffc2-5d9f-4e83-9023-44d488d92aa3
[155] Tangent says doing a Major, though, wouldn’t change anything. Perhaps it might pull Brown to the left, which would hardly improve his position against Cameron - well, it would, since arguably his present position is to the right of Cameron’s
- if a Labour budget introduces the kind of tax changes that voters expect from the Tories, there’s a sense of betrayal among the base voters.
152: voxpop: not disappointed, not tripping, not over the moon. With the Tories on the up, a new leader who has sometimes made the headlines for the wrong reasons, lingering questions over the changing of leadership, and the supposed ‘big party squeeze’ which everyone tells us is going to happen, I think there are plenty of positives for the Lib Dems here, and although you can spin it either way, it seems like a very solid set of results to me.
Sometimes there is something in between ‘terrible and disappointing failure’ and ‘crushing victory’ you know…
165. oops, it was the Mail, not the Times.
I’m beginning to think that the exit from JackW’s ARSE last night may not be far wrong.
If nationally we are 20% ahead of Labour, then a 12% lead in Mayor could easily be on the cards.
Blears: ‘very disappointing’, shurely not!
169 - 10p was a gimmick to start with, though, which Brown has got caught in.
where i was canvassing in bexleyheath turnout was reaching 60% and not one person i spoke to were considering voting labour, all boris. of course some must have voted for ken but most surely should have been our voters!
170. “Sometimes there is something in between ‘terrible and disappointing failure’ and ‘crushing victory’ you know…”
Clearly you don’t work in the English media, Guv.
the gurning moron comes across as totally deluded. he has no idea that his policies are the reason they got spanked…..my god he is the greatest tory asset ever.
154- the only 2 possibilities for a pre election leader change are Straw/ Johnson. The young guns will bide their time
Actually I think Clegg’s had something of a result. Not stellar by any means, but he didn’t do too badly when measured against a high starting point. Not cause of jubilation but if I were a Lib Dem I wouldn’t be too worried.
Unlike Brown.
Guido is saying a Conservative Majority is evens. I can’t check on pbc. Some weeks ago it was 2.5 - free money.
Punters need to start looking at the long term signs instead of looking at weather vanes…
Listening to Blears is surreal. She has detached language from meaning altogether.
177, although Johnson’s a competent sort of fellow, or appears to be, he didn’t do too well in the deputy contest and is on record as saying he isn’t up to the job of PM.
Halifax have today joined the Nationwide in confirming that house prices have gone year-on-year negative. The bubble is bursting, the cycle has turned and we’re heading for 30 to 40% falls over the next 2 or 3 years IMO. The final plank in Brown’s debt-fuelled ponzi scheme has been pulled up. Belt-tightening is the order of the day for the years ahead.
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7378215.stm
Look at that graph.