PaddyPower pays out on Boris
May 2nd, 2008
The Irish bookie has already started paying out - even though it’s won’t be until this evening that we get the actual result.
Looking at the bet date and time it was placed just after Monday’s YouGov poll became public. As soon as the poll news came out I went to every bookie I could to bet before prices were adjusted. The odd stake amount was the most they would let me put on.
Nice to see the return come in.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Mike Smithson. HAMMERING the Bookies
Bit of an odd stake there Mike, using every last penny?
Didn’t paddypower pay out, before the result, on an Obama win in New Hampshire?
4) They prob took about £1000 on New Hampshire Sean to be fair - which could have been hedged with £10!
Ken is now out to 15. Someone is pretty sure of the result.
Con hold Bassetlaw - Sky
re 137 on previous thread.
Is Cardiff likely to be NOC or Lib Dem?
Am I the only person who is deeply frustrated that the live Mayoral tallies - which can be seen at the counts and by BBC reporters - are not available online? Why doesn’t Sky train a camera on them and run a live feed?
Some of the news presenters are poor prepared. On Sky:
Dermot: “You’re not breaking through in big northern cities, Manchester, Newcastle and Leeds etc’
Hague: ‘Er, we lead Leeds City Council’
Checkmate!
Sky News reporting 45% turnout for London Mayor Election
re 2. The stake was the most they would let me put on.
10. Mike’s going to have a nice meal tonight.
Hague on Sky:
There are more councils in the north of England that don’t have a Labour councillor than don’t have a Tory and that was before these elections.
Speaking to a friend who is at the count at Olympia and the reason for the move on Betfair may be because there has been a significant move away from Ken in the Lambeth and Southwark constituency in the last 30 mins.
Also hearing that the counting process could take much longer than anticipated due to the number of opened postal votes getting caught in the electronic counting machines.
Midnight a possibility…
SKY: Lib Dem gain Sheffield
re 10. So 45% means that my turnout bets come good as well.
I might be able to buy half of shandy in the pub tonight!
8. No. You’re not alone. This is lamentable coverage. We need live feeds and internet updates, as in America.
This is London, global capital, not the parish elections for Polperro.
Princess Purnell throwing a strop on BBC News.
Da Fink reporting Tory sources talking of 4-8% Boris win.
At least Blunkett is being honest on sky about clutching at straws…
Curious to know if, after the results last night, the major bookies still taking mayor bets?
Sky report turnout est. @ 45% - so inner london turnout estimates must have been exaggerated? Congrats to turnout/Boris combo backers!
17. I agree, London is the home of the BBC, reuters etc, we should have the best coverage and reporting in the world
Blunkett on Sky huddling with the Lib Dems. With him and Mark Senior and they will tie themselves together.
8 - there are rules in place regarding the secrecy of the count. Legally, you aren’t allowed to transmit information out of the count, but as the room is stuffed with politicos and journos the rooms must be like a leaking seive!
It’s the first time I have ever known a ‘real time’ tally at a UK election. I was meant to attend the count this morning, but unfortunately work had to come first…..damn!
Also looks as though the smaller parties being squeezed on the list vote from waht i am hearing.
Councils.
Labour lost 8
Tories up 8
LD down 1
25-Well there are screens which are showing live time information and is updating every minute i am being told.
25. Well they need to get ride of these rules, and give us machine voting, with realtime internet reporting. Much more fun, and actually LESS susceptible to insider trading, rumour-mongering, etc etc.
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +8 +178
LAB -8 -250
LIB -1 +22
OTH +2 +50
Labour reach 250 seat losses (By Skys figures anyway, BBC report -189)
LD gains seem to be falling. They were on 20. Now on 16
30. Big losses for Labour. At the very bottom end of their worst-case scenarios.
25. I think those reporting restrictions only apply before the polling stations have closed.
any chance of Boris doing it without second prerences?
34-No
Mike
Good to see you giving PP some decent publicity. They are very progressive with their Political and other Novelty bets and of course, as you know, in the end they handled my ‘Huckabee’ issue very poperly.
36. …properly.
34. Wouldn’t that be great. Might send a warning shot to Labour about changing the voting system.
28 & 29 There used to be a “declaration of secrecy”, which meant that you weren’t allowed to give indications of ‘how it’s going’ while the count is in progress, although people interpret this differently. Some take it that you aren’t meant to communicate anything about the count whilst it is taking place, others are more lenient and suggest it only means you can’t disclose how a particlar ballot paper has been marked.
I believe the ‘live TV screens’ are a first, and it would probably make sense to re-examine the rules. I personally like the US system of “32% of precints reporting” with figures for each candidate constantly updated.
36 - Anti-Catholic Freudian slip?
34, not in London but that would be pretty crushing for Labour. Can’t see it happening though.
Betfair 1.1/1.11 - all over bar the hedging and profit taking?
O/T 2000 GUINEAS
Site followers who are also horseracing fans might like to know that I have just had £150ew at 4/1 on Raven’s Pass to win tomorrow’s big race.
sky predicting 52/48 split to Boris. Closer than thought last night
I am still quite taken aback at the Labour scale of defeat, I never imagined 20pt lead over Labour. You Gov had us at 18% once.
Comments have been made about the paucity of Labour’s response. Difficult I know, but there are no Labour big hitters left. Gordo has seen to that.. yet another apalling mistake, of Gordon’s own making.
39-As its the biggest count in one place the country has to deal with i agree that the rules should be changed.
I gather that everyone is quite relaxed at the count about making mobile phone calls and communicating with other people outside the hall.
Sky - 20% 1st preferences counted.
Johnson ahead in 10 of 14 constituencies.
Do I hear a large sigh of relief from YouGov Towers?
Boris by 4% allows both MORI and YouGov to breathe a bit more easily, I suppose.
Has anyone posted about Cardiff? No overall control. Labour in 3rd place.
Obviously a terrible night for Labour. The comparison is with 2004 where we did terribly, and there has been a 4.5% swing according to the BBC notionals.
Given that Labour won the 2005 GE after the terrible 2004 locals, these results imply an actual GE result of Con 38 (+5) Lab 32 (-4). Remember after the terrible 1995 Result the Tories did much better in 1997, despite a landslide defeat. The changes were Con (+6) Lab (-5). Mapping that to these results (in reverse) gives Con 39 Lab 30. These results would give the Conservatives a small majority.
Of course a lot could change in the next couple of years and as has been pointed out the economy could cause Labour more problems. It is clear, barring some unforseen event, that Labour will lose the next election but whether the Tories get a majority, and if so how much it will be, is very much in question.
Hat-tip to Iain Dale for this great image:
http://bp2.blogger.com/_z5hT1P0X79c/SBr4z8HfCfI/AAAAAAAAB24/8tVpOLULOYU/s320/guardiansorry.jpg
43. That result will be a bit of an anti-climax with regards the ‘Great Polling Company Showdown’. All of the polling companies can pretty much claim they had the result within MOE.
48 - Yougov will get the glory for calling it for Boris, ultimately
Wonder how many more than 200 the Tories final tally will be
So after last nights debacle and with the expectation of Boris winning later today can we say that Gordon Brown must be the biggest lame-duck Prime Minister since Eden went off on sick leave in 1956?
Two more years of this incompetent oaf beggars belief. Doesn’t the country deserve better?
49. 3rd in Cardiff! Yikes.
Labour are in danger of losing both their Celtic heartlands - Wales and Scotland. Where does that leave them as the dominant party? Moss Side?
49. Thanks a lot, I was asking about that earlier. I hope my vote helped the tories into 2nd
What if Ken has a significant lead on second preferences?
If people want to give Labour a bloody nose, might that not be a good way? Or am I now clutching at straws?
44 - Labour always do worse in local elections than the national opinion polls show. In terms of swing in the polls since 2004, which someone on here posted a few days ago, was suggesting an even bigger swing.
55. A couple more losses could have left them 4th behind Plaid.
51 That really needs putting under a picture of Boris!
Mike Smithson- you said betfair would be running at 1.1 on Boris on counting day.
What a prediction. Well done!
Con hold Rossendale - Sky
This local election very much backs up YouGov’s national polls, with the big double digit leads. If indeed Boris does win, YouGov will be THE major players at the general election.
47. Yes. The only thing that matters is some ways is that they called it right. But they got some backing this time [eg from Mike]because they were close last. They will be hoping they are really close to the result.
CON HOLD ROSSENDALE
65 - Gain you mean?
59. Sorry, not quite right there.
Lib Dem 35
Conservative 17
Labour 13
Plaid 7
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +9 +191
LAB -8 -272
LIB -1 +30
OTH +1 +51
(Conservatives are closing in fast on 200 gains)
KIRKLESS, SWANSEA remains NOC
57. Please god, Frank, clutch all you like: us Ken supporters have only got about another 4 hours to be positive so let’s take any opportunity we can.
I’m still hopeful Ken will clinch it, Greens will get 2 list seats, and BNP will get none - but I wouldn’t bet on any of them!
45 “I gather that everyone is quite relaxed at the count….”
I have just scanned my Count Centre Addmission Policy document and found the following:
“No person attending at the verification of the ballot paper accounts shall express to any person an opinion based on information obtained at that verification as to the likely result of the election.”
But the most interesting part of the document is this:
The following items are prohibited from being brought into Count Centres;
• Offensives weapons eg. knives, tasers, etc.
• Imitation or toy weapons, including toy hand grenades and guns
• Items that could be readily converted into weapons
• Component parts of weapons
• Flares or fireworks
• Party poppers and party canons
• Alcohol
• Lasers, including presentation laser pointers
• Strobe lights and high intensity torches
• Hazardous materials eg. CS gas, pepper spray, gas canisters, acids and alkalis
• Spray paints or cans of paint
• Powders that are not personal prescription medicines or for cosmetic purposes
• Illegal drugs
• Pointed Scissors
• Pointed tweezers
• Knitting Needles
• Syringes (unless required for personal medical use)
• Placards and Banners
• Mobile phone jamming devices
• Items that could cause loud audible disruption e. whistles, megaphones, sirens, air horns, large radios/cd players
• Covert surveillance equipment
• Climbing and abseiling equipment
• Tools eg. pliers, screwdrivers, wire cutters, saws, etc.
• Any items considered to be suspicious by security staff that the owner can not provide a reasonable explanation for possessing
Not just hold on, but make 3 more gains from Labour.
66.I think Sky had it as a gain but it has gone off screen now.
59. They need more representatives in Cardiff. There was only one Plaid member contesting 3 seats in Cyncoed.
If you’re in Cardiff and Plaid, raise your head and you will surely be selected
63. What if he wins by 0.5%, when YouGuv predicted a much bigger win. Even if he wins, YouGuv is not necessarily going to be the most accurate pollster.
Gloucester remains NOC
A result from Scotland:
Troup ward Aberdeenshire Council by-election
SNP 1721 (62.8% - 2007 47.7)
Con 515 (18.8% - 2007 24.6)
LD 503 (18.3% - 2007 7.59
2007 20.11 - an independent took 20% in 2007
There should have been a Sun headline
with a photo of Boris
“Will the last person leaving London switch off the lights”
…
78 - Yeah but the Sun supported Boris
74. I’m amazed at some of the people I know - family friends etc - who are Plaid candidates in Cardiff. The Party has never had a real base there, but with the Assembly, I think that’s changed a bit.
Tories now have 55 [+9}, labour 15 [-8], LD 10[-1]
71-Oops looks loke my source has been a bit naughty then
Wonder if Boris will keep his pledge if he wins and attend this years Pride festival
Get him a nice pink Cadillac to stand in and lead the parade - would be intriguing ….
77. Thanks Marcia!!
Another brilliant SNP result
:D 
I had a look at Dumfries & Galloway council’s website - where the Tories held Abbey ward yesterday. But unfortunately they seem to miss out the 1st round prefs (only show the 3rd & 4th counts for some odd reason). I think the SNP did quite well, but do you have the full 1st pref result?
Sky calling Solihull as Con gain.
Best lay price on Ken is now…. 25.
78. Already been done:
http://www.tribunemagazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/tribunecover.jpg
Taken from Ben Brogans Blog. More bad news for Labour…
“David Pitt-Watson has resigned as Labour general secretary, or rather he told NEC officers this morning that he won’t be taking up his appointment. It will be announced shortly. Last month I raised this possibility when I reported an account of a torrid meeting between him and Mr Brown. The timing is awkward as it looks like it’s linked to last night’s results, but in fact his departure is more due to a dispute over financial issues and specifically how to protect his wealth from the risk of Labour insolvency”
80. My friends (students) seem to be a lot more supportive of Plaid than the older generation. Plaid may be a dominating presence in 10 years or so. Or maybe my friends will just grow up
83. Woo that would be excellent to see
84 - I’ve been looking but no luck. I was expecting a decrease in Troup as Mitchell Burnett had a big personal vote. Our candidate lives just outside the ward and the LD candidate lives in MacDuff the main population base in the ward. To put on 15% is beyond my hopes.
Adam Boulton reporting some big leads for Boris in some of the areas he is head.
Adam Boulton:
Scoring system (per constituency)
Big lead = 5 points, small lead = 1 point
Boris 33 points
Ken 14 points
87. I don’t think mentioning terminal 5 would have helped their cause
Boulton hinting about quite a big Boris win after 25% of votes counted - who got the sense of it? - missed some.
‘Gen Sec’ PITT WATSON NOT GOING TO TAKE UP THE ROLE
or even the roll!
Good lib dem results in Swansea - promising for the GE. More losses for Plaid
87 now that is a cool mock up of the Sun headline - cool - thanks for making me smile - I would have liked to see Sian Berry win for the Greens but that was always a long shot - just hope the Greens do well in the Assembly elections and the Nazi party don’t gain any …
Boris 1.06, hasn’t been that low yet!
Noone with any ability wants to run the Labour Party! lol. A Boulton
Also per Boulton:
If turnout higher in Boris areas then he’ll do better than “scoring sytem”.
87. Dont forget to shut the door behind you lefties…
84. background:
In May 2007 the result (1st prefs) in Abbey ward (Dumfries & Galloway) was:
Con 33.8%
Lab 28.2%
SNP 17.8%
LD 4.86
+ several low votes for Inds
Aybody any idea of the percentage turnout? Is the bet recommended by Mike/PfP etc going to come in?
That Boulton info looks like the end.
42…good luck! i have Natagora at 18 on betfair for sunday’s race. i trust that she has been declared?
Is there a chance that Paddick could nick 2nd place if Ken is doing as bad as suggested?
Green gain highgate - camden off Con
Con gain seat in Ealing off lab
105) Boulton is no exaggerator, seemed to be saying “its over” in a nice way.
107 - No
Which party currently control outright the most councils in Wales?
Sky - Con gain Solihull!
109
Cue Roy Orbison….
108 - Are those by-election results?
108 to be far not necessarily a terrible result for the tories, as Greens held the other two seats iirc.
Boris now 1.05.
107. Would be nice though!
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +10 +196
LAB -8 -281
LIB -1 +32
OTH +0 +53
(BBC Figures reporting CON +195, LAB -226, LIB +24)
(125 of 159 councils have officially declared)
ooh British Elections just got a tiny mention on BBC World now on BBC America - but the lead story was the Zimbabwe Elections
and you are right Mr. Brown does look dour today … 
104- If you mean London Mayor Turnout then Sky are reporting 45% turnout.
Blair on Sky. He is looking increasingly deranged.
A remake of the Shining is in the offing, with Tony as the star
113) In honour of Sea Shanty Irish;
It breaks your heart in two
To know she’s been untrue
But, oh, what will you do?
When she says to you “Thereâ’s someone new”
“We’re throu-oo-ough, we’re through?”
It’s over, it’s over, it’s over
(Roy Orbison)
Son of madmacs is now a lib dem councillor.
Cameron on SKY in Bury. He’s cockerhoop and lapping it up.
117 - Not sure it would.
120. That’s not quite the remarkably high turnout we were promised on the election prgramme last night. Just getting us excited as usual?
Blair has almost certainly had a blepharoplasty procedure and (more) rhytidectomy in the last few months. In my (professional) opinion.
Con win hale by election in barnet with 900 majority. Was spilt labour/con ward till 2006
Tyson 43.The 4% lead for Boris is rubbish- it is based on some sort of average of several polls - which polls and when done not specified. YouGov figures now more likely to be correct, as they have been clearly most accurate in their national predictions. Can anyone explain the substantial difference between Sky and BBC reports of Labour losses(c.60 seats)?They must be working from different bases, which is odd.
129 someone is counting the shadow authorities in the figures.
120 Thanks Simon.
Looks like a winning bet then.
129 - There’s a suggestion that the discrepancy is due to the new Unitary Authority in Durham, which the BBC is reporting as a lot of Labour gains
Off topic but in reply to Julian at 129 nm the previous thread.
Apparently the courts may not be sharing your view about the Manifesto pledge on a referendum since Stuart Wheeler has just this morning won the right, in court, to challenge the decision not to hold a referendum.
The government’s case was completely rejected.
At the very least this delays the ability of Brown to allow the treaty to be ratified until after the case is heard.
Looks like another blow to Stalin’s authority. :-).
Does anyone know why Powys is such a large council? Does nobody live there?
Sam Coates’ source at the Evening Standard has just emailed us to say it’s looking “very, very good” for Boris - and presumably Yougov.
The Grunuiad has a startling view into an alternative universe in their summary of council changes:
Wales
Blaenau Gwent - Independent gain from Conservatives
88. “David Pitt-Watson has resigned as Labour general secretary…”
I guess this counts as a “good day to bury bad news”…under even worse news.
LIBDEMs gained 6 seats in Sheffield (and control)including the last Conservative seat which was in Nick Cleggs constituency
As Sean (3) says, PP did this before NH (thankfully for me), but at least there you could see the point. They get lots of free media exposure: “Irish bookmaker Paddy Power has paid out on Barack Obama” - so probably well worth it. But here it’s not remotely media worthy, because the result will be confirmed tonight, not several months away as with the case with Obama.
Anyone got an explanation? Seems thoroughly daft.
139) he was talking about them settling on the NH primary, not the general election or the democratic nomination.
137 When Guido first broke story he claimed Pitt-Watson was going to resign but not until after the elections - looks like he was right, the letter probably handed over at 10pm last night.
136. Core Tory voters abandoning Cameron in Blaenau Gwent?
BTW Independents don’t really succeed outside Wales in these elections.
Iain Dale says Ken leading by 30% in London North East constituency.
Boris leading by 20% in Barnet and Camden.
Boris leading by 5% in Enfield and Harringey.
Responses from last thread.
38 - Hi Sally, I’m at home and I was going to do some work on Wales but I’m too bleary-eyed after last night.
I’m just wishing I’d advised the news desk to run a ‘Boris on the way to healthy win’ story Jack reported. We’d looks bloody good this morning if I had.
Of course, I could have got sacked if Ken had gone on to win
122 - As I said last night, the starting positions of the relative races means a swing was always more likely to be bigger.
Labour lose Caerphilly.
We’re talking seismic disaster in Wales.
Interesting that the Labour / Guardian view yesterday was that Yougov was wrong and biased. Today, they are using the early Yougov polls in their spin - “it looks like Ken has done very well to come back from those early huge poll deficits, even if he loses”.
WARNING:
Dale now reports Con only marginally ahead in Brent & Harrow GLA seat. Con won that last time.
This, together with 30% Ken lead in North East, is the first sign of POSSIBLE bad news for Boris.
Labour party gen sec resigns - PolHome
147 - London NE is not suprising.
Enfield and Haringey Livingstone and Boris almost identical after 35% counted - last time 60/40 so excellent there
Camden and Barnet - Boris very well ahead after 22%, but don’t know which wards and that would make a huge difference.
If you haven’t already heard, Highgate Ward by-election in Camden - Green gain from Con (was a 2/1 Green/Con split ward):
Green 1483
Lab 1185
Con 1180
LD 663
Turnout 57%
Boris out from 1.05 to 1.1 in last few minutes.
148 - sorry - Brogan, not PolHOme
142- On BBC last night they were saying Independents in Wales are really Conservatives in disguise?!
Tories lose their 1 seat in Sheffield. Not a huge surprise but still a disapointment. Another Northern city without Tory representation.
140: but they did pay out on the nomination - that’s why it got so much media attention
153. I’m not surprised. To a lot of Welsh people, speaking the word ‘Conservative’ is considered taboo.
147 - Brent voters coming out to try save their favourite son?
129, 130, 132 - The difference between the BBC and Sky figures is probably caused by the fact that the BBC is not including seats in the new shadow unitary authorities in its calculation of councillors +/-. I suspect that Sky are comparing the results with ‘notional’ figures based on the 2005 county council elections.
145 Hard cheese innit!
Politics Home have a good presentation of results - detail by council after the summary.
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +9 +201
LAB -8 -284
LIB +0 +33
OTH -1 +50
(BBC Figures reporting CON +198, LAB -237, LIB +28)
(129 of 159 councils have officially declared)
Pickles salary is almost safe….
Simon Jenkins : Cameron is looking very much like tomorrow’s prime minister.. on CiF !
Poor old Pol, eh?
So New Labour are heading for 300 losses, not just the 200 that would be classed as bad. Can anyone see a pattern here.
In the 2000’s Labour vote share in England is around 24%, only a third of English people class themselves as British. Look back at Scotland in the 1980’s, the Tories got around 24% of the vote in the 1987 GE and only one in three Scots then classed themselves as British. Ten years later they were wiped off the political map in Scotland.
Just think could be on the cards now. Labour cling onto power using MPs from Scotland/Wales and imposing more unwanted policies onto England, in 2010 Labour gets wiped out in the South and gets replaced by the Lib Dems/BNP/EDP in the North. Labour are heading into the political abyss and they’ve done it all themselves by not having a true leadership election, not listening to the voters over the EU referendum issue and playing Auld Enemy politics against England.
The sooner New Labour are removed from office the better, but DC New Tories must do better otherwise nationalist politics will take over. At last England become a Labour free zone for good.
153 Most aren’t.
SKY NEWS RESULTS so far:
Council / Seats
************
CON +9 +206
LAB -8 -291
LIB +0 +33
OTH -1 +52
(BBC Figures reporting CON +198, LAB -237, LIB +28)
(129 of 159 councils have officially declared)
Pickles salary is almost safe….
What i don’t understand is that everyone knew/thought Boris would win on the 1st preference - but that is what everyone is basing his win on now - I thought it was all down to how the 2nd preferences went - or am I missing something
154 Apparently there are more northern councils without Labour representation than there are without Tory representation though you probably won’t hear that mentioned very often on the BBC.
162 - same old thing though = Scotland and Wales voted for Labour all through the Maggie and Major years and got ruled on by English politicians -
Yer daren’t take yer eyes off this page for a second. Better than both main news channels taken together. Good job, Mike & Co.
Labour lost 16 seats in Torfaen.
I’m guessing it’s another independent anti-Labour lefty group a la Blaenau Gwent but it still blunts the rusting Labour machine in South Wales.
What are best odds on Brown resigning/removed before xmas and Alan Johnson his successor?
166. Very true, thats probably why David Cameron is visiting North Tynside today, too prove just that point
166 - not first tier though, mainly small districts.
Tories currently won control of 2 councils in Wales. labour have 1.
147 - Mike L. - This is totally at odds with everything else we are hearing. I have heard Boris is outpolling Ken 4:1 in Bexley/Bromley and in Greenwich/Lewisham Ken is only leading by about 4:3, where he should be well ahead if he’s hoping to hang on.
The caveat to all this is that only around 25% has been counted so far and there is no way of telling whether the boxes have come from Labour or Conservative inclined areas.
And apparently the Lib Dem vote in Lewisham appears to have collapsed.
Boris now out to 1.15.
Very big move over last 30 mins.
166. Indeed, earlier on Sky the presenter was ramping up those nothern cities without Conservative representation and mentioned Leeds. Hague shot him down with the reality that the Conservatives lead LDC. Just goes to show how bad the basic journalistic knowledge of the make up of these authorities is.
labour look to be crashing to -300. this is turning into a complete rout, isnt it.
Chris Hune on SKY is quite clearly deranged. You’d think they’d won the GE. Constantly crowing about their gains in the north. So what!!
New Zogby Primary Polls for North Carolina and Indiana :
North Carolina -
Clinton 34% .. Obama 50%
Indiana -
Clinton 42% .. Obama 42%
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1495
162. Ah but every nation had the same status before devolution. Now Scotland/Wales have devolution but England has to rules by a UK government with interference from Scottish/Welsh MPs. Labour are totally hypocritical on this matter.
175 - But with the caveat that we’re not actually leading the council in terms of seats held.
Still plenty of Welsh results to come for it to get worse for Labour.
This is an UNBELIEVABLY bad result for Labour.
What gains? Sheffield? That’s about it. Did they not mention Liverpool? Didn’t think so.
173.
John’s very small sample of Croydon postal votes did (if I remember correctly) also suggest a fall in Lib Dem support (along with Greens, who were possibly under 5%).
I think the London Assembly results could be very interesting - possibly even more surprising than the mayoralty.
Labour really have had a meltdown in Wales. Whats happened there, I wonder?
Michael Thrasher really is the voice of reason. This isn’t 2004. Labour are not going to revive and win the GE.
183 - 2007 was a meltdown as well - people didn’t really notice.
178. Obama’s denunciation of Wright starting to filter through methinks. The Wright issue has also completely gone from cable news now (with the exception of Fox - but Democrats don’t watch that).
Why do the LD’s continually attack the Tories. Surely they realise that they would be better off to concentrate on Labour. They’ve gained very little with this plan of attack. Why not give it a try and see what happens. They may be pleasantly surprised.
187. They enjoy the smears too much and as a party of the left, it is natural to smear the Conservatives. Common sense doesn’t register with the Lib Dems.
185 - It’s hard to really call a meltdown when they essentially still won. But how many councils are Labour going to have control of after today? It’s not going to be many.
Plaid are also looking like getting a bit of a kicking. I don’t think their voters are impressed with propping up Morgan.
183 The voters last year voted for parties opposed to Labour to kick them out of power in the Welsh Assembly. Plaid decided to keep them in so they are still there. Voters not happy last year with Labour, more unhappy now and saying so.
When was the last time the Conservatives controlled any of these councils?
Manchester
Liverpool
Sheffield
Newcastle
183. Over half of the gains have gone to the Tories (who were on a very low base). The rest of the vote is splitting in all directions. Understanding Welsh councils is pretty difficult. Places like Pembrokeshire, Powys are overwhelmingly controlled by independents.
186- socrates- Obama has been drifting outwards- now 2.5’s on betfair
191. They don’t need to to win a GE.
191-Does it matter if they control everywhere else?
191
I could probably ask you when Labour controlled any councils in the south!! Too many and I can’t be fagged.
Con gain Ackworth from Labour. WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
181 Also Burnley, Hull…Liverpool finally held with the help of a sitting independent who decided to sign up as a lib dem to make sure Labour gained no toehold on power. Oldham exactly half the seats fo lib dems. Newcastle held. Looks pretty good up north for lib dems.
194. Exactly. I’d just like to know when they last controlled them. I’m presuming it wasn’t just prior to 1997 but the way the media ramp it up one would think these cities were Tory heartlands stubbornly holding back. It’s nonsense.
Plaid have been pessimistic about Gwynedd all night. I’m looking out for that result and RCT. How long are these places taking to count!?!?
Mind you, it keeps the excitement going. Shame I needed to sleep really
Losing Reading means that Labour have pretty much feck all in the south east now.
Boris now drifting a little on Betfair but even if Ken were to astound most of us by winning it wouldn’t really reflect well on Brown would it.
183 - The Welsh elections are all-out, that means losses will be higher. They are essentially losing seats that