MORI to review phone polling after Mayoral outcome
May 3rd, 2008
Why did the phone pollsters over-state Labour?
Following last nights results the pollster Ipsos-MORI has announced that it will be carrying out a review of its approach and the phone firms generally asking “why empirically, they appear to have tended to over-estimate the Labour share of the vote”.
An issue for the firm, of course, was that its final poll was completed a week before the election and a lot can happen in the final few days. That’s certainly true but there was a disparity between its figures and those of the online pollster, YouGov from February onwards when details of the first MORI survey were made public.
The results from MORI, MRUK and ICM have been far better than previous phone polls ahead of the 2000 and 2004 races. The big difference this time is that the contest was far closer.
To my mind the difference between completing an on-line questionnaire and responding to an unsolicited randomised phone call is that with the former you decide when you want to respond. The nature of the phone survey is that you have less control of the timing and this, I would suggest, might lead to different sorts of people taking part.
The internet responder is being proactive while a telephone responder is passive.
This factor has become increasingly important as in this online age we use the internet for so much more. The user is in the driving seat so much more of the time.
In comment on UK Polling Report Ben Page of MORI writes: “…we will be reviewing our political polling methodology to look at lessons learned and publishing our conclusions and any changes we make in a few months’ time. In my opinion that’s the best thing to do. There is nothing to be gained from just blaming a result that looks wrong on a late swing, the right thing to do is to look in detail at the figures, try and work out what if anything did go wrong, and see how it can be put right.”
We will follow this with interest.
Mike Smithson
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I think its a good decision by MORI to acknowlage something went wrong and to review their procedures.
1. We’ll see. They are already confined to a niche market of producing Labour friendly polls. Why abandon what little they have left?
In most other businesses, being so wrong and then saying you were reviewing your operations would be enough to kill you off.
Posted on previouss thread 180
First congratulations to You Gov om mayoral polls
Second congrtulations to You Gov on having national polls which reflect best the Tory share.I say this because this cycle set of locals usually produces a Tory vote share identical to their national opinion poll share.Hence 44% in the locals in the locals suggest strongly that the tories opinion poll figure is the 44% you gov have been showing.
Some clarifcation on council seat changes.Taking out new Unitarie s the figures for England alone seem to roughly Con +197,Lab -207,Lib +10
rogerh
re 2. That is silly and to suggest that they deliberately produce “Labour friendly” surveys is possibly defamatory. I know several of the MORI people well and I have no doubts about either their integrity or competence.
You could have easily argued last September that YouGov was producing the most Labour-friendly polls because theirs were the only media commissioned polls to have double digit leads from Brown’s party.
Sean Fear from the previous thread.
My point was not that CCHQ are worried about Boris’s performance, but that knowing how the current Labour leadership think and behave could lead them into a bear trap. After all Boris would need to do little more than ask for the same funding as they were promising Ken so he could carry out his recently endorsed manifesto commitments to be sure that they would find someway of mucking him about.
Remember that as the scale of their defeat sinks in Labour are going to be desparate to find ways of discrediting Tory leaders and policies, and Boris is going to be on their doorstep.
Response to Rod on previous thread -
I was thinking constituency results, but I take your point! Certainly a GLA record, and I rekon must beat any Parliamentary constituency (Padarn’s Glenys Kinnock answer from European elections is huge!).
I don’t think I was off with teh figures, though. The wikipedia link doesn’t give results for yesterday, only 2000 and 2004. 2008 results were:
James Cleverly (Conservative) 105,162
Alex Heslop (Labour) 29,925
Tom Papworth (Lib Dem) 21,244
In the Mayorals, Bexley and Bromley went:
Johnson - CON - 122,052
Livingstone -LAB - 40,670
Paddick - LD - 17,332
So as James notes on his blog
“Boris wins by 139,772 votes, 81,382 votes from Bexley & Bromley. That equates to 58.22% of his majority.”
http://jamescleverly.blogspot.com
I thought MORI was face-to-face.
Yougov’s advantage might not be internet polling as such but rather its ability to track voting shifts among a de facto panel.
ICM’s big problem is surely its defective randomisation which means it needs to weight its responses to within an inch of their life. See rants passim.
4. I’m not suggesting they deliberately produce Labour leaning polls. Rather that their methodology consistently overstates Labour and that this may attract ongoing interest from certain customers. Thus changing it would carry some commercial risk.
On thread: even at the GE in 2005 I recall some discussion about the telephone polling. It was discussed here, and I believe the crux of the matter was that people use mobiles more, are more mobile themselves, and so those on landlines are likely to be a difficult subset of a subset.
Wasn’t there also a problem about randomised calling by machine being illegal or something?
Whatever, there have been issues about it for years so it is rather belated to look into it now.
But better late than never.
Although, if there is a real problem what does that do to our use of past polls and the trends they display. Portillo was being a prat on TV the other night happily still confusing pre-97 Labour leads with Tory leads now. If we find something wrong with current polling by phone - which is the main alternative to internet polling- we could be reliant only on YouGov.
6 How do you view the outlook from Wales
8 - I think that any customer of an opinion service that deliberately went for personal comfiture over accuracy would be deluded to an unsafe extent. Trying to improve their accuracy carries no risk for MORI, it is failing to do so that will carry commercial risk.
Interesting Greenwich & Lewisham result -16,000 for Lab on GLA falls to about 11,000 for Mayor result. LDS squeezed on both - real good progress for Tories here after a barren decade - perhaps the B & B effect creeping up from the suburbs!
11 James B I know of people in organsiations, some of them governmental, who consciously choose pollsters at least partly on that basis knowing that in the past they have reported ‘usefully’, as they can use the results in their presentations or to the stakeholders or shareholders.
After all, the ‘Yes PM’ sketch on polling, came straight out of the Civil Service playbook.
The other enquiry to be followed with interest will be the Labour Party’s official complaint to the Market Research Society over the YouGov polls in this election.
One hopes that the party will withdraw the complaint as publicly it made it in the first place.
If not, perhaps Michael White will be among the witnesses called for the complainant?
6. Of course it must beat any parliamentary constituency, since there are 6 of them in the GLA seat!
I’d look at the wikipedia link again. It does give the 2008 result, and the maj was 75,000, not 80,000, and others got about 43,000.
If the GLA seat was a Westminster constituency, it would equate to a majority of about 15,000. Good but nothing special…
It does not even compare with the Westminster record…
North Down, 1959
Currie (UU) 51,773 (98%)
Campbell (SF) 1,039 (2%)
maj 50,734 (96%)
11. Both approaches carry commercial risk, IMHO. We’ll have to see which carries the most.
If you go to the London Life section of the GLA website Ken is still smugly grinning from the banner - I knew prising his hands from power would be tricky
Now reality bites and the fun starts…
Boris takes office..
This from the Grauniad looks really extreme for Labour,
“Another worrying trend for Labour is that voters seem happy to side with whichever party looks best placed to beat it — indicating tactical voting of the type that cost the Tories so dear in 1997. In northern constituencies such as Newcastle East and Derby North, where the Liberal Democrats are running second, our analysis shows voters have rallied to them. By contrast, in southern seats, where the Conservatives are stronger, such as Plymouth Moor View and Southampton Itchen, the Liberal Democrats have been squeezed as voters have rallied to the Conservatives.”
link please Punter
12 - As far as Greenwich and Lewisham are concerned, my own nhunch is that Conservative improvement here would have largely come Eltham, and and the traditional white-working class Labour vote shifting white, and possibly from a few similar areas in eastern Greenwich. The ward results will help us here.
Mori will be disappointed but their performance is no disgrace. It was a dificult election to call and I suspect there really was a lot of late switching. Their response is nevertheles very sensible and it will be interesting to see what conclusions they draw.
Just a quick note to say well done to Guy and the decent Tories on here for a well fought campaign. Also well done to Boris and indeed Ken for two of the most gracious speeches I have seen from politicians. We in the red corner are all gutted of course but Boris won fair and square. Nice of him to recognise that 1 million voted against him and for Ken, and that he now needs to govern well for all of London. If he does, I think you are a shoe-in for the GE. If he doesn’t… well, I hope he does because I have to live here!
Mike S. Is there a price on Ken coming back and winning the 2012 Mayoral vote? If it’s more than 10-1 it might be a value flutter!
Been a interesting ride. Congratulations again to the Tories for a well fought campaign. But Ken we’ll miss you…
22 “Mori will be disappointed but their performance is no disgrace. It was a dificult election to call and I suspect there really was a lot of late switching.”
Really?
YouGov called it correctly.
24 And I called the Grand National correctly, but don’t ask me to do it ever year!
Serious mistakes were made. The system is going to be analysed properly, outside help will be accepted and an effort will be made to correct the problems that have arisen.
Naturally, a pollster firm and not a political party.
Kudos to Mori, and as has been said, both Boris and Ken were quite gracious in victory and defeat, which was nice to see.
19. Looks like Labour are really finished.
I reckon it was the 10p tax wot did it, Labour’s poll tax. It seems everytime a party tries to make the tax system more regressive they suddenly find themselves on the precipice.
[25] You are a gambler. Are you saying Mori are gamblers?
You may have a point.
mruk’s performance wasn’t too bad either - they got Boris and Brian very well - just the Ken prediction was far too high.
22. Late switching? yeah right Peter, course there was. I saw Elvis in the grocers this morning as well.
28 No. I’m saying they do their best to make sense of complicated situations, much as I do. I respect their findings, but don’t take them as gospel. Nobody gets it right all the time. But they are right to examine their methods, as all ‘punters’ do when the results aren’t so good.
30 Harry, it will never surprise me what you see.
I think there was late switching, but mostly in a pro-Ken direction. It was, however, nowhere near enough to win, and it is true that the phone pollsters didn’t get a fair reflection here.
21 ‘As far as Greenwich and Lewisham are concerned, my own nhunch is that Conservative improvement here would have largely come Eltham, and and the traditional white-working class Labour vote shifting white, and possibly from a few similar areas in eastern Greenwich. The ward results will help us here’.
Agreed but that would not be enough to explain how a notional lead for Labour of probably 50,000+ disintegrated. Also interesting how LDs were pushed decisively back into 3rd place. It will be interesting to get the ward breakdown
27 Someone on the previous thread wrote a good post on why Labour are finished.
The Left have an absolute believe in their priorities. They dont understand people, voters, have other priorities. If the voters vote otherwise, they dont understand how out of touch they are.
It is the fault of misguided voters (in need of education) and a biased media (in need of control)
Labour will respond with looking for the positive spin and denial. Labour will sink further. 20% beckons.
20 The article is by Nicholas Allen
Quick offtopic straw poll:
Is there anybody here who doesn’t think Brown should GO NOW?
I mean, I really hope he doesn’t.
35. The Left does not equal Labour. The left will continue in some form, it has for centuries, it will change and adapt. It’s an amorphous group with millions of different strands. Labour may not adapt and survive but that is a different matter.
Of course, in the 90’s you could have posted the same thing about the “right” and the Tories. Everything comes in cycles.
31 I respect YouGov.
YouGov called it correctly. It was difficult and YouGov got it right.
That is why YouGov will win more business. Mori’s reputation and currency is damaged and devalued.
38 Conservatives base core vote is 31/32%.
Labour polled 24%.
35 Diane Abbot spoke about a British West Indian trying to get housing help. After he said “It would be different if I were an immigrant”, she threw him out.
She was proud of her action. Never for one minute stoppping to question if it was correct or wise.
Gordon just seen the new Scottish poll figures that put the SNP at 45%.
Gordon needs to stay .. we need him to stay for another 2 years:)))
40. The scary thing last night was a news programme (I think it was either BBC or Channel 4..) demonstrating the governing party’s vote share in local elections at their moments of ‘disaster’.
Margaret Thatcher, at the height of her unpopularity in 1989, scored 31%.
John Major was considered to have been absolutely decimated in 1995. He received 25% of the vote.
Gordon Brown has actually outdone them. He got 24%. So he actually led his party to a vote share lower than John Major. Congratulations, Gord.
37 Yes, but he won’t, Martin.
Having some time spare available I picked out three highly marginal LD seats and applied Thursday’s results to see how they were fairing compared with the 2005 GE performance. By no means a representative sample, but does suggest that where the LDs do establish themselves as the incumbant, they can buck the national trend because of their local base. Fully understand that people vote differently at GEs, but interesting outcomes nonetheless.
M WI’TON is Manchester Withington.
2005 GE 2008 LE
LAB CON LD LAB CON LD
SOLIHULL 15.4% 39.4% 39.9% 5.0% 36.4% 42.9%
EASTLEIGH 20.6% 37.5% 38.6% 8.6% 35.5% 48.6%
M WI’TON 40.6% 10.5% 42.4% 31.9% 9.7% 49.4%
This may be a daft question,but will Boris step down as MP for Henley and when??
Brown needs 2 stay and slug it out for 2 more year max! :)))
Brown needs to stay and slug t uot for 2 more years maxxxx:}}}
40 - the Conservatives got below that in projected shares of the vote during the locals in the worst of the Major years, IIRC.
49. Tangent, see my post above (43).
39 If you were a punter, Bolted Horse, you would want to gather your opinions from a wide variety of sources. You’d value some more than others, of course, but you wouldn’t dismiss the views of a highly professionl organisation like Mori, just because they had a few disappointments. As I said, nobody gets it right all the time. YouGov are rightly proud of their latest performance but nobody with any sense will be betting the house that they’ll always be spot on.
What is absurd is the suggestion that serious pollsters, like Mori, bend their results to suit their clients. Any polling firm that did so would be out of business pdq.
46. It was reported last night that yes, he will stand down as an MP - but I can’t remember if he said exactly when. So we perhaps shouldn’t be expecting a by-election in Henley in the immediate future.
43 If correct, fair point.
However, there is something else here. I normally take local elections results with a pinch of salt. Howard did very well in locals before losing in 05.
What is interesting is that YouGov were pretty much right on the money.
If YouGov got it so right, it has implications for the General Election.
If for a GE, YouGov say 44%Con, 24%Lab - I shall take notice.
“The internet responder is being proactive while a telephone responder is passive.
This factor has become increasingly important as in this online age we use the internet for so much more. The user is in the driving seat so much more of the time.”
Sorry if this point has been made already, but in addition to Mike’s points, isn’t the YouGov internet pollster more likely to find it easier to access Conservative voters than the telephone pollsters?
I am sure that Mike has noted before that its less likely that Conservatives will take part in telephone canvassing by pollsters?
51 Unfortunately Peter, i cannot bet. I would like to, but cannot. It has little to do with morals or a gambler’s past but there it is.
However, If I were a gambler, I would look to the most accurate and proven tipsters.
Interesting thing about “Independent Financial Advisers” is that they are no better at getting it right than random pokings of a trained monkey.
The implication is, there are people who spread false informaion to affect prices, that they can take advantage of.
As I say, I cannot bet. I visit PBC for an unbiased picture. If people distort the true picture, it loses its value.
51. Your naivety is very touching sometimes, Peter.
56 Harry
I’ve tipped Ravens Pass (ew) in the 2000 Guineas, off shortly. Presumably you believe I do so to flatter John Gosden, Jimmy Fortune and the shareholders of Stonerside Stable Llc, who own the horse?
Any postal voting scandal? Seems to have gone quiet on that front at the moment.
58, two blokes were arrested in Yorkshire on the 1st for attempts at fraud. Not sure if it was postal related though.
Shame I’m working tonight as there’s about 40,000 at Elland Road for a third division match. Brings a tear to this old Peacock’s eyes.
Fair play to MORI. I still think that YouGov should consider taking action against whoever in Livingstone’s team produced the May 1 press release.
We should reflect on the fact that over 2million people voted. That’s simply wonderful.
A note on Wales. Labour remain the biggest party and many of the independent groupings are to the left of Labour and will return to the fold at any general election. I see no sign of them losing too many GE seats though I haven’t started a full analysis (next week). Plaid Cymru may come to regret propping up Rhodri Morgan as I would have expected a much more robust advance for them (and for them to retain Gwynedd) if they formed a strong opposition with the Tories and Lib Dems.
Christ. Pollsters get it wrong and you know what, it can be immensely profitable.
I refer you to the GOP & Democrat primaries which has done me great service by sometimes ignoring polls.
If all you do is always take the polls at face value you have to be an eejit of the first order, especially when it come its sticking money on results.
57. I’m wondering if he could just drfit to 5’s before the off. That’d be handy since I took your advice and got on.
60 Surely if they had joined with Tories & Lib Dems they would still been in Government but with Labour in opposition?
57. Over my head that one, sorry. Now let me have a go.
You appear to be of the view that clients of a pollster are only interested in obtaining and more importantly seeing published the most accurate possible picture of any contest. This is a naive view.
In a contest where getting out the vote will be the key to winning, the last thing a party which is behind wants to see is the publication of polls showing their man way behind - this risks disheartening their supporters and guaranteeing defeat. It’s much more in their interests in this situation to see polls published which show their man in a favourable position, even if they know this isn’t the real situation.
So there is a strong incentive to try to produce favourable polling results, either by finding a pollster with a favourable methodology or by the the practice of getting lots of private polls done and hoping for a rogue result which can then be released.
40. And LDs polled about 26% (I think?)
That means that the major parties of the left got about 50% of the vote. If you think that from here on out until Britain no longer exists it will be rightwing, i think you will be proved wrong.
43 - the 24% for Labour was before the GLA results were known, surely that jacked it up one or two points.
Derby are winning away at Blackburn - yes really!
Could this be the start of a roll?
58 - Postal votes. Now that postal voters need to sign a statement and give their date of birth, frudsters would need a large database from which to work ! I know that there were some problems in Tower Hamlets (reported on here a week or so ago)
63 Harry
Punters cannot afford to be naive. Those that are go out of business just as quickly as pollsters who compromise their integrity.
60. The result in Gwynedd had nothing to do with the Labour Plaid Cymru coalition in the National Assembly. The council had proposed to reorganise the county primary schools, recommending 29 closures, mainly of rural schools mostly with between 4 and 40 pupils. This caused a huge outcry against Plaid Cymru and the formation of a new party, Llais Gwynedd - Gwynedd Voice, specifically to oppose the closures. Llais Gwynedd elected 12 councillors, with Plaid Cymru losing 8 overall and also the control of the council. In the urban, anglicised part of the county that used to be in the Conwy constituency, Plaid Cymru increased its representation from 5 to 8 (out of 15).
Interestingly, two of the new Llais Gwynedd councillors had previously tried to be selected as Plaid Cymru Assembly candidates, one in Caernarfon and the other in Meirionnydd Nant Conwy.
I
64 I’m not sure who you are having a conversation with. Right wing, Left wing? I know what a leftie is but remain unconvinced that the opposite is Right wing.
Politics does not fit a 1 dimensional model - with a left and a right. At best a 2 model.
The LibDems remain the trousers down party. They are measured by how and with whom they drop their trousers. Sometimes they get a vote because there is little else choice.
I disagree about internet polling being superior to telephone polling. Rasmussen produced results that were just as accurate as YG in 2001 and YG badly messed up the 2004 Presidential Election.
62 - I dont think an official rainbow coalition was ever really feasible. Look a the manifestos it would have been horrific for all concerned.
That would have been the best thing for Labour. They could have portrayed themselves as victims being unfairly kept out and the splinter left would have more likely come back to Labour to get the Tories out of Cardiff Bay
70 Correction, at best a 2D model - ie a left, a right and up & down.
4th…unfortunate.
65 - as I understand it the 24% is from a detailed analysis of selected wards chosen to replicate the UK electorate, but who declare the same evening, so that particular calculation isn’t affected by later declarations, or indeed areas that didn’t vote.
69 Shame I’m working tonight
Writing the front page for the NOTW David?
66. Stop picking on us Peter!!!!
76 - No I’m just putting the Sunday Times sport pages up on the Times website. Overtime grabbing!
75 - True
50 - Yes, that 24% was what I was thinking of. Labour’s bottom in these elections is likely to be a couple of % lower than the absolute Conservative worst, because of the difficult in getting Labour votes out for locals.
Interesting how the Lefti Press is reporting the vote.
They complain all Brown repeats is “We shall listen and lead”.
Even they see this as empty words.
“We shall listen and lead…” click! “We shall listen and lead…” click! “We shall listen and lead…” click!
79 BTW David, you’ve presumably seen Henry G’s post to you & me earlier?
60 When you say many seats. What mean you. They’re not about to be thrown out of Islwyn etc but all the high water mark seats PS&CW, CN and Aberconwy they can already kiss goodbye to. On Thursday’s showing even a few of their harder to reach seats eg NW, VC and LLanelli would be under threat.
81 - Matthew Parris in today’s Times is worth a read.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article3864138.ece
82 - Yes I have. I have emailed him. It was jolly close to the handicap mark I set. Proof of a very fairly offered bet I reckon!
85 Indeed, I was on Boris by >5%, I assume you were the same.
77 I’m not picking on anyone Woody - encouraging more like, remember we’re on the same side!
Fulham 1 Birmingham 0 Come on you Whites!
81 Last year:
Ms Hewitt told Sky News: “They weren’t as bad as we feared, but they weren’t as good as we would like.
….. but do so by listening very carefully to what people have told us in different parts of the UK in these results.”
2006:
Chancellor Gordon Brown said “We have got to show we are listening to people’s concerns and we are going to respond to them,”
83 - I mean that the Labour heartland seats where the councils have gone NOC will stay Labour. Stating the obvious really but the huge minus figure in Wales was to a large extend promulgated by voters who will still probably vote Labour in 2010.
The high watermark seats were put on notice in 2007 that they are destined to fall. I can’t see too much effort being put in to hold Cardiff North or CW&SP! I also think Plaid Cymru could win a small swing to take seats like Ynys Mon
I think they Labour will concentrate on retaining places like Llanelli and on the whole I think they will succeed in the moderately safe seats they hold against Plaid but perhaps fail in the ones they hold from the Tories. Vale of Clwyd I would think may fall if Labour remain in the mess they currently are.
85 - I was on Boris by 6! Very very close!
“Really?
YouGov called it correctly.”
A day before the election. A week earlier they had Boris 11% ahead. Fair play though, they always had him winning comfortably, which he did.
86. All gone wrong anyway
10 - Sorry Punter, went out for lunch and only just got back.
I thought the Welsh results were the most interesting of the night - congratulations on being proven right on almost every front, although I see the LDs fell a little short in Cardiff. Congratulations to Sean Fear for getting his councillor predictions right:
“In summary then, I expect Labour to retain four councils, and lose perhaps 90 seats, but remain the largest party, overall. I would expect Plaid to win two councils, and maybe gain 30-40 seats. I would expect to see the Conservatives win two councils, and gain around 40 seats. I would expect to see Independents retain three councils, and the Liberal Democrats to just fall short in Cardiff, but gaining 20 or so seats between them. Eleven councils should be under No Overall Control.”
A great night for the Tories in Wales - they have done well not only to win the Vale of Glamorgan, but to increase by so many councillors, particularly in Cardiff where they now lead Labour 17-13. The Welsh Conservative Party will be enjoying their day, and smart of Cameron to add Barry to his stops in Nuneaton and Bury. Winning a seat in Rhondda Cynon Taff was a pretty impressive victory on its own.
The Lib Dems will be feeling pretty disapponted not to get Cardiff, and not because the incumbants hung on but because the anti-Labour vote was split with the Tories and Plaid Cymru, but als because the Lib Dems lost councillors to the Tories in the Heath. Not a bad night, just feel like the party has stagnated.
Plaid had a great night, beating their previous record total, and as Pendarn has noted, with a much broader geographic spread than before. They are now a credible party in South Wales, and I think that being in governemnt has given them a legitimacy and credibility that outweighs the negatives of being in coalition with Labour, even though that coalition is not particularly unpopular.
I was surprised Stuart thought being in the WAG was hurting PC - when the Nationlist Parties won their respective referenda to form devolved parliaments, they grew stronger. When those parties were able in 2007 to form (part of) those governemnts, they have grown stronger still. I think that PC have been a modest mirror image of the success of the SNP, and they should be fairly comfortable with Thursday’s performance. Gwynedd was a bit of an embarrassment, but it will not do PC too much harm to be seen as not just the party of North and West Wales, and being kept honest by localised groups is all part of being a serious national party.
Labour had a catastrophic night in Wales. To only control 2 councils (Rhondda Cynon Taff and Neath-Port Talbot), the same number as the Tories (Monmouthshire and VoG), is abysmal. To lose six councils (4 to NOC: Caerphilly, Flintshire, Newport, and Torfaen; 2 to Independents: Blaunau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil) is about as bad as it gets, and I think Labour MPs should be worried that left-leaning Independents will be targetting them next time around.
Dai Davis (Ind) holds Blaunau Gwent, which was one of the safest seats Labour ever had. Chris Bryant should hold Rhondda for his local campaigning with Leighton Andrews AM on the Burberry Factory closure, and I imagine Paul Murphy is safe in Torfaen as he is well-liked. However, Kim Howells, Peter Hain, Huw Irranca-Davies, Dai Havard, Sian James and Don Touhig should all be concerned. They all hold majorities of over 10,000, but these majorities can be quickly overturned by local Independents (often ex Labour) who have the contacts and used to run the ground game. Few of those I mention have ever had to seriously campaign in their areas, and if faced with an unpopular national party, their own ties to Brown (Touhig as his PPS, Hain Murphy and Howells for having been in his cabinet), and a good local campaigner, few of those seats are entirely safe.
The challenge for Labour is that getting into government in 1997 came at the cost of moving closer to the middle-classes - Worcester Woman, Mondeo Man etc - which was tolerated by their heartlands who had missed being in power. Now those heartlands are feeling abandoned, and choosing their own independents over Labour. Labour needs to simultaneously appeal to the mining villages of South Wales, whilst also battling the new model Tories for the hearts and minds of the dinner-party circuit in England. I don’t think they can do both. To beat Cameron in the centre means abandoning further the red working classes, who will only be won back slowly by a lurch to the left that Labour cannot afford. What the party needs is a working class hero to lead them - trusted by the left and attractive to the centre. I don’t see that in any of the next generation leaders, except maybe John Denham or John Hutton. Any other choice will alienate one group or the other.
If I were Cameron, I would consider some of those places out of play, and allow Conservative voters to line up behind an Independent to ensure that the threat of decline in the Labour party could force it to lurch left in defence.
81. Theres not a lost else Brown can say. The games up. He and senior Labour people must know it, but they can’t come out and say it, obviously.
Latest Zogby Primary Trackers for North Carolina and Indiana :
North Carolina -
Clinton 37% .. Obama 46%
Indiana -
Clinton 42% .. Obama 43%
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1496
2-0 Fulham! YEaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!
Latest Rasmussen Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 44% .. Clinton 45%
McCain 48% .. Obama 43%
Clinton 47% .. Obama 44%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Remind me - didn’t Brown make a big thing of the fact he was going to spend an ENTIRE YEAR going round the country listening to people in the year up to when he became PM?
What a farce.
After the discussion the other day about whether Obama supporters were seeing the fight vs Clinton as too black and white, at last a nuanced view of things:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8lvc-azCXY
99, the first couple of months of Brown’s premiership seem like some sort of drug-addled dream now, they’re so different from the present reality.
Cameron’s done a damn good job turning a double digit deficit into a 20% lead (admittedly the general election lead, in similar circumstances, would be somewhat smaller though still huge). I know Brown’s hardly helped himself but it was Osborne’s IHT move and Cameron’s speech that prevented the Supreme Leader from calling that snap election.
94 - You really think that there may be other people running as people’s voice style candidates?
I disagree. As you say, these are old Labourites. They are also not stupid and will know that the likely result of the next general election is a Tory win. The Blaenau Gwent campaign was held in full confidence they could punish Labour arrogance without letting the Tories in.
But if Labour are attacked from all sides in Wales they could well get slaughtered all over the place.
It’s a fascinating scene in Wales. So very different to the position in 1997.
100 — Everybody must see this video; good and amusing.
Only thing tough: I think this time the Dark Side will win…
98
Zogby over-estimates Obama in Indiana, I believe
96. I think this is a crucial bit:
“The statements of Obama’s former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, have had some impact on the race in both states, as 11% of Obama supporters in Indiana and 13% of his supporters in North Carolina said they were less likely to support him because of the Reverend’s comments. Wright made a much-ballyhooed appearance at the National Press Club in Washington last Monday.”
11% in Indiana, considering that includes independents in a white, red state, is very low.
102
This video is doubtlessly made by the same team as this one: http://youtube.com/watch?v=vkpa53n8dNk&feature=related
Baracky
and now: The Empire Strikes Barack
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8lvc-azCXY
New Rasmussen Primary Poll for Oregon :
Clinton 39% .. Obama 51%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/oregon/oregon_democratic_primary
103. I think what we saw last summer was simply an anomoly. A reaction to the Blair going, rather than an endorsement for Brown. A huge sigh of relief. We all assumed, wrongly, that the public were supporting Brown, I’m not sure they ever were.
Rick Callahan of RCP indicates that early voting in Obama leaning areas is very strong :
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/news/ap/politics/2008/May/02/early_indiana_turnout_heavy_in_strong_obama_counties.html
Fivethirtyeight.com have a good toy to make your own NC predictions …. so far I’ve got Obama leading by 68% and 69% …. Might be a tad out !!
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Obama leads as the first districts of the Guam caucus report :
http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080503/NEWS01/80504002
109
Good news for Obama, and for those who wanna see this race going on and on and on…
for Clinton is sure to win Kentucky, West Virginia and Puerto Rico.
Labour needs to simultaneously appeal to the mining villages of South Wales, whilst also battling the new model Tories for the hearts and minds of the dinner-party circuit in England. I don’t think they can do both.
This is Labour’s ket strategic problem. It wasn’t that serious when all the core Labour vote wanted to do was to beat the Conservatives, but they’re tired of being the beasts of burden in the Labour party caravan (in their view). It might reunite in opposition - and one thing to be borne in mind is that the end of the USSR, and New Labour, has made the hard left much less toxic to voters as a whole than Benn and his ilk were twenty or so years ago. Labour has a bit of leeway - not to try and go all the way back the 1983, but to move left to, say, the kind of position Labour had in the late Kinnock years.
What the party needs is a working class hero to lead them - trusted by the left and attractive to the centre. I don’t see that in any of the next generation leaders, except maybe John Denham or John Hutton.
Alan Johnson, surely? John Hutton is distrusted as much on the left as Milburn or Byers are.
104 - I’d be amazed if there weren’t more People’s Voice style candidates in Wales. I think the bitter ex-Labour types like Dai Davies are able to win because people know that the Tories will get in, and thus it doesn’t really matter if the local MP is Labour in Opposition or Independent left-winger in opposition.
As Labour try desperately to recover the central ground that they are fast losing to Cameron, they will inevitably further alienate the former mining communities in South Wales. There is an opportunity for ‘Old Labour’ candidates to poach seats with large Labour majorities, but incumbants who have no natural link to the area or any experience of campaigning as though their careers depended on it. One of those I mentioned above could be challenged successfully, if the Tories decided not to compete.
Hello again. The strange feelings of good will I have felt for Boris in the last 24 hours have surprised me. Now that it’s all done and dusted and I’ve come to terms with Ken losing (something that saddens me greatly) I find I don’t actually mind Boris winning.
A brief take on it: http://stonch.blogspot.com/2008/05/mayor.html
Anyone else find that a Boris win killed off their Will Hill account? Limited to 0.00 on all events now
Forest did it! won 6 out of there last 7 matches, and have gone up!
96 Thanks. I didn’t get it right. I underestimated the shift against Labour (in Wales as elsewhere). Nor did I expect Plaid to lose a council while enjoying a healthy seat gain.
Your analysis is basically sound. It’s very difficult to appeal to disparate sets of voters. And, after 11 years in government, it’s almost impossible. The Tories may find it very hard in government to appeal to the two types of floating voter who’ve switched to them - white C1 and C2 voters, and more prosperous voters who switch between Conservative and Lib Dem.
115 - I agree entrely. I didn’t mention Alan Johnson because I didn’t consider him ‘next generation’.
Labour cannot afford to choose a true left-winger, without completely losing the centre ground. Hutton might not be liked, but he is respected, and could come to be trusted - a good comprimise, as would be Denham.
121 A core vote strategy could make sense if Labour recognise the next election is lost, and just go for an honourable defeat (as the had in London), and thus allow a succeeding leader to start off with a reasonable number of seats.
Cuddles..YAAAAAY edge of the seat stuff wasn’t it. was so nervous when donny equalised and yeovil got one back.. had visions of all those play off games we’ve blown..
right improved my weekend that has!
120 - You’re bein too modest! No-one thought Labour would do as badly as they did, and the Plaid Council loss was slightly anomalous. Small growth in LD and PC numbers but no new councils, 2 Tory gained councils, Labour lose 2 to independent control, and NOC hold 11 councils - pretty close, I’d say!
Are there lessons to be learnt for Cameron as to how to conquer the centre without losing the base?
Just a thought I don’t think anyone’s mentioned yet - how big do we expect Tory poll leads to be in the next few weeks? Over 20% possibly? 25% even?
125. (should probably make the caveat that I’m thinking of YouGov polls!)
110. I’m sure that is right. Brown’s poll ascent was a pure relief rally, or perhaps less charitably a dead cat bounce. The cat certainly looks well and truly flattened now.
Grrh! Does anyone else have freeze problems on Ladbrokes’s horrid ugly website?
96 - grossly simplistic
Yes, Labour needs to rebuild its own coalition of voters, but this hardly requires some kind of lurch back to the manifesto of 1983. It just needs (assuming basic governmental competence) solid social democratic management of the economy and continued improvments in health and education. Illiberal policy stunts need to be dumped. This then becomes cameron’s problem…which public services are to be cut for tax cuts etc
Anyone who thinks this is old labour is nothing more than a blairite outrider! And a strategic pygmy to boot
122. I was thinking that, in the extremely hypothetical situation of Brown caring what was best for his party, he should do a series of bold policies that appealed to the left and which didn’t offend the right too much (a small raise in the minimum wage, expansion of free childcare, increase in the personal allowance), then call an election next month and resign as leader when he loses.
Tangent @ 115,
In my view, that Labour find themselves with that problem is the fundamental indictment of Tony Blair’s leadership. Unlike Mrs Thatcher, he seemed completely incapable of grasping that an electoral coalition which can deliver a landslide in House of Commons seats represents an accumulation of political capital which has to be invested rather than hoarded. The makeup of the Conservative coalition of the 1980s shifted as some government measures alienated old supporters while attracting new ones. The 2001 election results gave good evidence that Blair could have pulled off the same trick, had he chosen. Instead, he seemed to believe that simply marginalising the Conservatives (even if it meant signing up for the Iraq war) would asphyxiate them and leave him victorious by default. Perhaps the only excuse that can be made for his failure is that, in Gordon Brown, he faced an obvious rival who was seen as representing the heart of his party, whereas Mrs Thatcher herself held that role for the Conservatives of the 1980s.
129. What does “social democratic management” actually mean? The problem with “improvements in health and education” is that increased spending isn’t much of an option during an economic downturn and wouldn’t guarantee improvements anyway, and public sector reforms aren’t liked much by the left-wing.
Labour doesn’t need to be hard left, it just needs to be slightly left to please the base.
Say; Social housing, drop 42 day detention, drop ID cards, A package of constitutional changes to be verified by referendum, strategic anti-BNP alliances in certain sections of the country, e.g. Barking and Dagenham. There doesn’t need to be any nationalisation or anything that’ll send the middle classes into a panic.
133. Since when were opposition to 42 day detention and ID cards ideas of the centre-left?
129. 133. For goodness sake, it’s far far too late for ‘relaunches’ now. The public are sick to death of Labour and they are going to be out of power for at least a decade.
125. Low 20’s on average but it would not surprise me if this increases thereafter.
134. Just they are both disliked by much of the Labour party base. I think things like ID-cards belong on authoritarian-libertarian scale more than a left-right one.
See:
http://www.labourhome.org/story/2008/5/3/54131/09346
133 - quite agree, we hardly need the cabinet to be wearing “cole not dole” donkey jackets. Just show themselves to be actually aware of, and be doing something in line with the values and concerns of the centre and centre left voters who have put them in power.
Anything else would lead down the road of doing silly things, like, oh I don’t know, raising taxes on the low paid to generate cash to implement tory policies on inheritence tax ;-(
135. Yes, labour are going to lose, but they should try to minimise the loss.
122. Agreed a core vote strategy would make a lot of sense for Labour but I think there is little prospect of them doing it.
Would the Tories repeal ID cards and 42 day detention when they got back? They tend to get more authoritarian when they are in Government (just like Labour really!)
129 - No, you’re misunderstanding what I was saying. I wasn’t suggesting Labour should lurch left to rebuild, I’m saying they would have to do that to regain the deep support that they used to enjoy in SE Wales. If you agree with me that they won’t/shouldn’t do that, then I think we have to consider that those voters may go elsewhere if offered a left-wing independent local candidate.
Labour has taken its heartlands for granted, using them as places to parachute candidates who didn’t want to have to do proper constituency work and local campaigning to be safe and climb the greasy poll. Those areas have not only been taken for granted electorally, but the policy platform has been not to their taste - “solid social democratic” it has been, and that is far too centrist for many of the ex-mining villages. The National (British) Labour Party has neglected these voters (electorally, not economically), because they never considered that they would ever go elsewhere. To win them back will take a pandering lurch to the left that would be fatal, to refuse to meet their concerns means losing a bedrock. I think the next leader needs to balance the split I mentioned, but should have sufficiently credible working-class roots to make those voters feel like Labour belongs to them again. Unfortunately, more of the Labour frontbenchers are from NW3 than NP3. If Cameron is smart, he will try and make sure Labour plays to its base. If Labour are smart, they will use the leader’s personal background, and not socialist policy, to bring those sections that are so disillusioned back on board.
133
Too little too late the damage is done,you need a lot more than that including getting rid of Brown who is clearly an electoral liability.
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 46% .. Clinton 45%
McCain 48% .. Obama 42%
Clinton 47% .. Obama 47%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106978/Gallup-Daily-Democratic-Horse-Race-NeckandNeck-47.aspx
What Brown ought to do is resign for the benefit of his party and become a respected ‘elder’, but failing that - and he will fail to buck up the courage to do that - he should stop the mad rush of legislation and concentrate on competent government and sort out the problems they have created.
There has been well over 100,000 pages of legislation since 1997 and one new target a day announced. Sometimes twice, of course, the second camouflaged as new. All this has been spun so much that it has taken on a life of its own.
Not surprising, then, that they have lost the plot. Get a grip and show you know what you are doing and you have a chance.
Stop chanting nonsensical figures about inflation and the economy and tell it how people experience it.
Don’t lose any more data, find the data lost, fund the troops, cut the social payroll, reduce the Guardian’s job pages, and do what you promised in reducing the state and the government payroll. Stop closing hospitals people want and post offices they need. Replace the plastic police with the real thing and make the HRA more law and order friendly.
And hold a referendum as you promised - it is not too late.
But what will happen is no real change, more spin, no action on the 10p losers, retention of a part time Defence Secretary, and decidedly dodgy Chief Secretary and lots of bills in the Queen’s speech to show dynamism and energy but which will leave the public cold and simply tell us they are out of touch, out of time and soon out of office.
Very interesting news Mike in this thread. They also I think need to introduce weighting by past voting …
138
‘raising taxes on the low paid to implement Tory policies on inheritance tax’
No,the raising taxes on the low paid was done by Brown in his final budget in March 2007, to loud applause by Labour MP’s,which begs the question,were those MP’s too thick to understand the consequences of Brown’s gimmick or just so arrogant and out of touch to think anyone would notice it?
The Tories inheritance tax plan was stolen by Brown in October last year,the same time that he was praising and parading with Margaret Thatcher.
124 Sian James and Don Touhig. These two really? I see no PV types in those seats. It’s possible LD spillover fron SW could hurt Sian James though.
As for Labour it’s not over yet for them. The postponment of two Newport wards means the Tories are only three behind and could in theory actually become the largest Party in Newport! NW must be in play now surely. As for LDs in Cardiff. Close but no cigar. It was the PC performance that I found highly surprising. I guess the Assembly has created a Welsh speaking intelligentsia vote bank for them. In Newport more of a case of them left alternative to Labour.
Still on Cardiff I think in theory both West and South must viewed as least in theory competitive now. The results in North and Central we know already.
In North watch out for Vale of Clwyd now. The Tories showed surprising strength
145. If Labour really understood it’s difficulties it would find a way to get rid of Brown now. The changes you suggest may not be enougth. Matthew Parris (Times today)seems to have it right when he suggests Labour will not recover before a GE.
There’s nothing Labour can do with Brown still there, for the simple reason that in flunking an Autumn election he cocked his own personal brand (’the strong man of principle’), and in doubling the tax on the lowest paid (in order to guarantee his personal position within the party) he single-handedly destroyed the one reason people had to believe in the Labour party as against the Tories - ie, that Labour is the party that protects the poor.
That betrayal in particular has completely sealed the party’s fate - unless, like the scapegoat, Gordon can be driven into the wilderness with a placard reading ‘10p tax’ wrapped tightly round his neck.
Otherwise, they’ll all hang together.
28 G
“Looks like Labour are really finished.”
Would that be the same finished as the Tory Party [Corporal faction] were in 1997? Well, Boris the Tory Party [Fop faction] has just been elected Mayor of London.
Nothing is for ever. Although I do hope that they have learned their lesson that being the Tory Party [Liar and Brownstuff factions] will never work again.
Malcolm
I see no prospect for Brown, except to minimise the scale of Labour’s defeat, next time. It’s difficult because there are people who, for example, voted Labour in 1997 and now detest the scale of immigration, and others (up the social scale) who think Labour are nothing like liberal enough on immigration. There’s no way of keeping both groups happy.
152 - precisely, and given that it’s the Guardianistas who seem to be in charge of policy, the working class vote in many areas is increasingly likely to go either Tory, or vastly worse, BNP.
I think it’s greatly to Cameron’s credit that he hasn’t done a Michael Howard on immigration. Though being an intelligent man, he’s probably worked out that he benefits equally from Labour votes going to the BNP and thus dividing his opponents as he would benefit from picking them up direct.
The nett result though will be the strengthening of the BNP, for which I personally feel the Brown wing of the Labour party will be directly responsible.
36 Nag
Why did the Tory Party [Corporal faction] lose the 1997 election? Were they out-of-touch? Or perhaps an excellent government and the ‘people’ were fed up with excellence in government, and decided to elect a really awful lot three times?
As I grow extremely old I realise, I think, that asking the questions is more valuable than a belief in having all the answers. I guess when one is young [I remember some of it - distant pa