Time to put your winnings on PM Cameron?
May 3rd, 2008
Will the mood about Tory prospects now change?
One of the most satisfying moments in betting is when you are transferring your profits into your bank account and it was good to see that Betfair settled the London mayoral market so so soon after last night’s results.
For this activity is more than about the money but tangible confirmation of your predictive abilities. Anybody can have a view on a political outcome - the gambler backs up his with hard cash.
But what should punters do now? Is Boris’s victory in London going to change the view about Cameron’s prospects in a general election? Will received opinion move to the idea that another old-Etonian in his 40s is on course to take the biggest prize in UK politics - becoming prime minister of a majority Conservative government?
For one of the consequences of the London result is that it underlines what I described last week as the golden rule of polling - “that the survey that’s likely to be the best election predictor is the one that shows Labour in the least favourable position.”
It will also mean that greater credence will be given to the findings of the sometimes controversial online pollster, YouGov, which for the second London mayoral race in succession got the final result right to within one per cent.
And since the budget it has been YouGov which has been showing the biggest Labour deficits - a colossal 18% in the last survey.
The SportingIndex and IG Index spread betting markets on general elections seats were closed yesterday but new post-mayoral election spreads should be published this morning. The Spreadfair spread betting exchange has been operating but most of the best bargains - Tory buys and Labour sells - have been swallowed up (some by me!)
This is the form of betting where the number of seats the parties will get are traded like stocks and shares. It’s high risk but high reward because the more you are right in your prediction the more you make. Sadly the reverse is true if you get it wrong.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
CON 330-336
LAB 244-250
LD 44-47
Yesterday was quite the most spectacular day on Spreadfair.I backed LAB time and time again including as low as 222.5 !Later on I layed them in the 240s and as high as 248 before the mkt. settled at current levels in tthe late afternoon.
I think the key to the great action was that the Spread Firms were closed for Politics yesterday until SPIN opened in the evening.
Betfair was very tame by comparison and I had to make all my own running there.
If Gordon Brown is still PM at the time of the next GE, Cameron’s a shoe-in. No one will care about multiple old Etonians and all that stuff. People will vote to get rid of the Gordon Grin. It’s unbearable.
I really do need to lay off the late night cheese, because I had the weirdest dream that Labour lost 400 seats and the Tories gained 300 and that Boris was Mayor ofLondon and
.
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OH MY LORD - IT WASN’T A DREAM!!!
The full Welsh results, with all 22 councils fully-reported, look very different from when I last looked at them at the height of the post-election fever yesterday.
I think that they are worth some sober reflection:
1. Labour 344 councillors (-122 councillors)
2. Plaid Cymru 207 cllrs (+33 cllrs)
3. Conservatives 173 cllrs (+62 cllrs)
4. Lib Dems 162 cllrs (+21 cllrs)
oth 378 cllrs (+6 cllrs)
(I cannot find % vote figures for Wales. Does anyone know what the final party percentages were, including +/-% ?)
According to Betsan Powys, BBC Wales’ political editor, Plaid Cymru are “within one of their tally in ‘99, their best year ever”.
Notwithstanding equalling their 1999 record, on balance I think that most reasonable observers would argue that Plaid have suffered from propping up the fatally crippled Welsh Labour regime. Should they pull the plug on Morgan’s gang before the UK GE 2010? In my humble opinion (and my knowledge of Welsh politics is not fantastic): YES! What do you think?
Just imagine how well Plaid would have done if they had let Labour form a minority government instead…..
Guess who?…..
April 26 - “The 10p issue had vanished like a summer storm”
May 1 - “I don’t expect a Labour meltdown”
Ah, bless! Our own little Michael Fish.
5 brilliant. a real forecaster isnt he!
The hot topic now is whether or not Cameron can win an Overall Maj.
Currently I am betting ‘not’ but that is out of expediency rather than conviction.
come on guys, be gracious winners. No complacency, and we don’t want the Lib Eems calling us nasty smug Tories. I want a Tory Mp in all marginal seats but let’s not be unkind.
Nobody has perfect foresight - except YouGuv
Looking very very good for the Cons at Crewe, have to say their TV news coverage by ITN at 6.30pm was almost a free party political.
Do not think it mentioned Clegg, certainly never saw him. All I can recall is Cons winning, lots of blue, Cameron speaking once, twice, three times or more, with that sort of coverage they should not go wrong.
Zogby in US has N Carolina Obama 46-37, big shrinkage in one day, but Indiana he leads 43-42. Lot of undecided and some who say they will vote for another.
Mike - “Will the mood about Tory prospects now change?”
Yes. I think the Tories have turned the corner. Even (Lord preserve us!) maybe in Scotland!!
Here are the results from the two Scottish local by elections held on Thursday (1st preference votes - Single Transferable Vote system):
Abbey ward (Dumfries & Galloway Council) - CON HOLD
1. Con 1713 (40.5%) (+6.7%)
2. Lab 1393 (33%) (+4.8%)
3. SNP 755 (17.9%) (+0.1%)
4. Ind 173 (4.1%)
5. Lib Dem 164 (3.9%) (-1.0%)
Excellent result for the Scottish Tories in the south. Russell Brown, the Labour MP for Dumfries & Galloway, looks like an absolutely definite ‘goner’ (sp?) now. So David Mundell MP is going to have at least one colleague in the next session at Westminster!
The Scottish National Party did well to avoid the usual 3rd-party-squeeze. Scottish Labour fought this campaign tooth and nail (their new Scottish general secretary is from this part of the country).
Troup ward (Aberdeenshire Council) - SNP HOLD
SNP 1721 (62.8%) (+15.1%)
Con 515 (18.8%) (-5.8%)
LD 503 (18.3%) (+10.7%)
(an independent took 20% in 2007)
As my SNP colleague Marcia said here at pb.com yesterday afternoon: “I was expecting a decrease in Troup as Mitchell Burnett had a big personal vote. Our candidate lives just outside the ward and the LD candidate lives in MacDuff the main population base in the ward. To put on 15% is beyond my hopes.”
Troup ward lies in the Banff & Buchan constituencies for both Holyrood and Westminster. So the SNP are doing extraordinarily well even in our established heartlands, where it is often very hard indeed to squeeze out even more votes.
That Troup result must be a big disappointment for the Tories though.
In summary: Scottish Tories doing great in the south of Scotland, but still big problems in the north of Scotland. I wonder how they are doing in the middle though
Credit to Johnson for his magnanimity in victory. ‘Courage’ was the word he used to describe Livingstone and he was spot-on. Ken’s bravery in standing up to the Labour party, in introducing the congestion charge and in other things set him apart from other professional politicians and despite my winnings (thanks Mike!) I’m gutted to see him lose.
Good luck now to Boris. I very sincerely hope he does well.
re 1 & 7. I think we were both playing Spreadfair at the same time yesterday afternoon. I sold £41 of Labour at 251 at 1.17 pm yesterday to add to the £40 sell at 261 I had done a few days earlier.
Within an hour and a half I had almost completely closed the bets down with Labour buys at 223-224 and one at 240
With some Tory buying and selling as well I made almost £3000 in 90 minutes.
To answer the question posed by the thread,yes.
Like many others I had a good touch on Boris and it is hard to see Gord making a comeback.
Derek Wyatt, whose 79-vote majority in Sittingbourne & Sheppey is one of the smallest in the Commons at 79, said it had been a “John Major moment” for the party.
“How many more Northern Rocks can there be? Look at the situation with fuel prices, the non-doms and the 10p tax band. Gordon has committed spectacular own-goals and the public is punishing him for it,” he said.
Mr Wyatt said there was little “mood music” on the backbenches for Mr Brown be replaced, but left-wing MP Ian Gibson suggested he must come up with an “exciting” new agenda by Labour’s autumn conference or face the anger of the party.
“I’ll give him six months to do it or there will be really hard talking,” he said.
The next six months won’t be much fun for our “listening” Prime Minister and IMHO he should quit gracefully now, as I doubt if he has the capability to listen to anyone.
Brown was gurning all over the tv yesterday talking about ‘listening and leading’ well the country has spoken mate. be gone with you!!! (or at least give us a vote on the EU constitution)……..
Mike@ 12-…I am not worthy ! I thought I did very well after a shaky start but only made around £400 but stablised my open positions.
That Seller of LAB at 222.5 and thereabouts was freakish.
In my long experience,those people have either made an expensive rick or they come back to the market.
I kept expecting him to return; he,he.
What has boris done since he was elected? Nothing!
Have a good weekend!
1 I backed LAB time and time again including as low as 222.5 !Later on I layed them in the 240s and as high as 248 before the mkt. settled at current levels in tthe late afternoon.
Can you run that by me again please.
17- At what level ? Do you understand Spread Betting or is that an advanced query ?
Not bein g flash,just want to know how to resond.
4 - if Plaid pull the plug on the Labour administration then it’s “bye bye” to any chance of there being a referendum on turning the Assembly into a Scottish Parliament equivalent.
Yes, if I were a betting man (and I think I’m starting to be corrupted by the gambling cleverclogs here) I’d start putting money it.
Why?
Well, Labour lost votes mostly to the Tories but also to the Lib Dems. The Tories gained, net, from the Lib Dems. I think there are about a dozen or so marginal Lib Dem seats in the south, and coupled with wins over Labour the Tories could easily be the largest party.
A 134 seat majority is not likely. But a lower majority, or a minority government, are certainly possible.
Brown has two years to get his act together. But that’s also two years in which things could get even worse. The Tories must be near their ceiling of electoral attractiveness, but (despite being led by a certified plum duff) the Lib Dems could take even greater bites out of Labour’s cherry.
And don’t forget the Tories tend to increase their polling during an election campaign, that Cameron is the most charismatic leader on camera and Brown is easily the worst and that Time For A Change is a powerful driving force.
What may be more interesting is seeing what the Lib Dems do next (ie continue attacking the Tories as much or more than Labour) and what effect it has upon their electoral success.
Staggeringly bad for Brown. I almost died laughing yesterday. If this continues maybe Ed “I’ve got no” Balls won’t win even in this ultra-safe seat.
re 16 Nice one Jonathan.
Ouch - my head hurts !
Does anyone have any idea when the Voting patterns for the London Elections get released breaking down the Boroughs on a Ward by Ward basis please ?
22 - hear hear. Anyone out there know that?
The London Mayor result also means that the position has finally reached maturity. Up till its been a Ken creation and totally identified with Ken. Regardless of how well or badly Boris does in the role, being mayor of London is finally as important as that of Paris or New York.
Yes I think that Cameron has a very good chance for two reasons. Firstly, he was very quick yesterday to spot the difference between people voting against Labour and voting for the Conservatives and this does him credit. Secondly, since at least the beginning of NuLabour’s second term the identification of “the working class vote” (even if this only means how people define themselves) has moved steadily away from support for the Labour Party because the latter has consistently refused to “listen and learn”. Employment patterns have also changed beyond recognition and it could be that voters no longer see the need to vote for a party which claims to defend the interests of the mythical “working class”. This ideological divorce is also evident in France, Italy, Germany, etc..
22 - When the Electoral Commission decides - maybe a month or two. Of course, the result has been very close and a thorough count is required. The results pinned up outside the polling stations were provisional only, and it may very well transpire that a second round of voting is required before President Livingabe is declared winner.
25, Please, my head !
They must be available already as component pieces of the overall results.
Can’t take too long to tablate the info (if it hasn’t been already)
surely ?
IMO - the key quedtion is whether Labour have reached the point where their optimum political strategy is to give up hope of forming the next government, even as a minority. In other words, is it time for them to adopt a core vote strategy? The crisis over the 10p tax illustrates this dilemma perfectly. Once you’ve lost the “floaters” who decide the Govt (most who benefitted from the budget) pursuing them at the expense of your core can only exaggerate the scale of defeat.
This is what we saw in ‘97 - a govt setting its target seats too high, and its defeat being enormous. It was Tory->Lab floaters that put Blair in power, it was Tory core voters staying at home that made it a landslide of epic proportions.
Meanwhile Heffer rains on the parade..and makes Gordon Brown look like a beacon of light:-)
“For all their successes in the election, the Tories would be foolish not to have their own concerns, too. They did well because Labour did badly, and for no other reason: they still stand for nothing and have no vision to impart to the people.
They have piled up votes in the South and parts of the Midlands where they already have Commons seats, but are still struggling in the North.
In Wales, they won back their stronghold in the Vale of Glamorgan: but almost all the other councils prefer Lib Dems, nationalists or independents as the alternative to Labour.
And even the wisdom that the Tories do consistently well in the affluent South and East is challenged by some of the results.
No one can be shocked that they have no councillors in Liverpool, but is it a matter for complacency that they have none in Oxford? Or only one in Cambridge? Or that they are fourth, behind the Greens, in Norwich?
I do not dispute that they have made advances, but they are patchy: and Labour’s dismal showing is not helped by Scotland - which, despite everything, remains a heartland for them - not having elections.
The real significance of this election is the 65 per cent who didn’t bother to vote. This is a time of economic difficulty and there is deep concern about the record of the Government: yet most people simply couldn’t be fagged to take a view. ”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/05/03/do0301.xml
The man is the epitome of joylessness…
MD @ 20
I am sure the Lib Dems will continue to attack Tory policies (and positions) as well as drawing attention to the all-too obvious Labour problems. Lib Dems are an independent party from either Tory or Labour, and the two most important things for them to show, are 1) They have a USP, and 2) They can - and do - win anywhere, and are “strong” enough to do so. I have been on the doorstep a lot in this campaign, and these points are as important as they ever have been.
28 - lol. It’s like “Labour should not be happy until they have taken Wandsworth”
I really think that Brown has to surrender the middle ground and go unashamedly for the core vote.
He needs to woo pensioners and the lower paid in an effort to avoid complete meltdown.
NuLab is a bust.Cameron has it in his pocket.By surrendering the middle ground Brown will lose the next election but could prevent a total disaster.
__________________
Straight in…….Straight aht.
Sweet as
Alex 27- Snap ! I wrote that yestrday at 10.12 am complete with ‘B ig Vern’ tag.
I think the interesting thing to note about the London election is how much of a squeeze was put on the Lib Dems and others. Paddick didn’t even break double figures. Now I think I remember certain people saying before the election that there was no way Boris and Ken will get 80% of the first prefs with all the candidates, well my reading of the first prefs is that they got 79% of first prefs between them. Reading London across to a general election is going to be hard but I think we can draw a couple of conclusions.
First the next GE will be about a potential change of government in a way that 2001 and 2005 were not due to issues with the opposition. The Labour and Conservative leaders are now both heavyweight contenders, Brown has suffered a mauling in the locals but this wasn’t the title fight. In a general election fight the Conservatives and Labour are going to be going at each other in an absolute slug-fest and Clegg like Paddick is going to get eclipsed but not to the same extent due to the natural differences in the contest.
I think this local election result is dangerous for the Lib Dems. Yes they can point to progress but most of that was in areas where they have a high local election base and may not read across in a titanic general election race. The Lib Dems need to look to London rather than the locals for hints as to what will happen in a general and in London they have been badly squeezed.
Mike Smithson/Anyone
Do we know when the ward-by-ward analysis of votes for Mayoral/ GLA results will be available, please? A month or so ago, someone very kindly provided a Spreadsheet to download which was hugely useful.
Labour has a problem. Having abandoned Socialism Classic(TM) they are looking around for an ideology. NuLabour was about adding a vast injection of cash into schools & hospitals, while trying not to look like tax & spend. The problem was that they didn’t reform things first, so the money vanished like water in a desert
Cameron is trying out something close to Liberalism Classic(TM) - an updated version of the ideology of the Liberal party before WWI. This is a fairly coherent world view - free trade, peace settlement in Ireland, reform of social services targeted at the poor, help for the working poor etc. I assume he is dropping the commitment to build 4 dreadnoughts a year to match the Kaisers fleet
If he actually carries this through, it could be a winning formula. The idea of devolving practical power locally could be very popular. Elected police chiefs to kick at elections for example.
The Labour problem shows itself in their attacks -
1) Toffs
2) They are lying - they are all Norman Tebbit clones, with Mission Impossible masks.
Attack 1) doesn’t resonate with much of the country. As a friend (printer) said, it sound like bollocks when a someone on the 100k+ gravy train says that someone is too posh to be in power. Screaming “Toff!” just sounds weird.
2) will fail if they aren’t.
I’ve seen no evidence that Labour as a whole really understands the issue.
28.
What would make Heffer say Cameron is doing a good job?
Every single Labour party member defects to the Tories?
28. Simple Simon, or Silly ‘Effer as my cockney dad calls ‘im, is a sad and offensive little man. The suggestion that the millions of people who voted Conservative yesterday prevailed only because Labour did badly, and for no other reason: and that their chosen party still stands for nothing and has no vision to impart to the people is typical of the arrogant claptrap emanating from this excuse for a Gladstonian liberal.
Congratulations to Johnson for winning a very tough mayoral campaign. He just beat my expected handicap an I owe £20 to Peter from Putney and £10 to David Roe as a result. If you email your postal address to mrhenryg@hotmail.com I will settle up fellas.
28 — yes but Heffer does have a point and Cameron himself recognised that being anti-Labour and pro-Conservative are not the same thing. Of course, there would be a new government if a general election were held this week but there won’t be.
Made a tidy profit on the Tories getting most top up seats. They got 3 as did the LDs.
Roll on Henley by-election. I will be in the constituency in about forty minutes - to take my children to a swimming lesson!
37. Sorry that should be mrhenryg@hotmail.co.uk
A few days ago there was a heap of money,£300+, available to sell Labour seats at 359, I think. I seriously toyed with the idea of taking a chunk of it. Wish I’d spotted the spreadfair opportunities yesterday that Mike and URW profited from. Well done to you both.
Still I’ve got nice Labour sell at average 360 and Tory buy at average 318 positions which I will probably hold for now. I’ve also increased my bets on a Tory overall majority on Betfair. Personally I think they should be odds on now.
17. tatty. The best and simplest maxim for spread betting is “BUY LOW, SELL HIGH”. It works in life generally and in spread betting in particular.
Mike intends to do a beginner’s guide to spread betting article soon which I look forward to reading.
22/33 Paul Maggs says it’s some weeks before they’ll be available.
Heffer must be a very disappointed man this morning. How he must have been hoping for Labour gains.
32 - I was wondering when someone was going to notice that. I repeatedly pointed out that the opinion polls consistently showed that Boris and Ken together would tally more than 80% and was brushed aside. They got more or less dead on this.
[34] I doubt it. Of course, Cameron, like Asquith, could introduce a whole new set of welfare benefits by inventing new taxes for the middle class to play…
43 - yep, I was wrong there. The fringe candidate - and LD - vote was very low. BNP and Greens far worse than I expected.
re 41. StJohn - I think you mean 259 and 260 seats.
Once the political scene gets a bit quieter I’m planing a series of pieces on spread betting. It really is the most satisfactory form of political gambling and, like me yesterday, you can pocket your general election profits now without having to wait until the event takes place.
Currently on Spreadfair I have Sold the three major parties for equal amounts at a combined 631.7 ! Effectively
Currently on Spreadfair I have Sold the three major parties for equal amounts at a combined 631.7 ! Effectively I have the NATS to nothing,stjohn.
Yesterday was a day of miracles and wonders and I was just lucky to be there and even luckier to recover after being comprehensively outplayed by Mike Smithson in the early stages.
29, I’m not saying Clegg should run around hugging Tories (indeed, given his carnal appetite they might be quite concerned if he did) just that the focus of Lib Dem fire should (for their own sake) be anti-Labour.
Why?
1) Labour are still the government and should be held accountable.
2) Labour have the most seats and this the most seats to lose.
3) Labour are on their knees, which politically makes it an excellent time to kick them.
Clegg seems to preface every PMQs with an anti-Tory attackl. As well as being against what PMQs is there for, it also means he guarantees 550 MPs or so want to shout him down. Cable, by contrast, was regularly cheered by the Tories.
By the way, does anyone have the final result, percentage wise? I guessed a Boris win with 52.8%. Just curious as to how close I was with that.
Ken was very magnanimous, didnt put the boot into Gordo, what odds hes been offered a seat in the Lords or a shot as an MP ?
50 - I heard Ken may become an EU commissioner.
45 - The Greens did OK, they were the only minor party to increase their share of First Preference votes.
The YouGov/Evening Standard internet polls have been transparently used to try to influence the election by suggesting incredible leads for Boris Johnson when all conventional polls by companies like Ipsos-MORI and ICM have shown the election to be neck and neck.
A YouGov/Evening Standard poll on Thursday was just another attempt to deflect voters from the enormous stakes for London in this election by suggesting a Johnson lead which simply does not exist. The fact that it was accurate is even more annoying.
46. Mike. Oops! Yes. I was only 100 seats wrong there, which of course can be quite a costly place to be when you are spread betting!
The Tories look like winners now
Undoubtedly a lot of it was an anti-Labour kicking over issues like the 10p tax rise (I live in the 2nd most deprived ward in Bradford - the Tories missed out by about 200 votes and didn’t canvas my area at all, which includes 200 new-build houses and a lot of young, professional people) but the narrative is now clearly the Tories on the up and Labour at something of a nadir. If C&N goes blue in 3 weeks time then the momentum going into the summer will be all one way
32 James. Agree with you if the Assembly votes are the same, somehow I do not think they will be, but let’s see.
Out of London the evidence of the results suggest Lib Dems did well against the Cons in most of their Parliamentary seats.
42 Many thanks, Sean.
I cannot see why they (the ward-by-ward results) are not instantly available as the electronic count will have recorded them.
When you have word of their appearance, please let us know on the site. As you can imagine Hampstead Town particularly interests me!
Why does the BBC on 9 am news not show Boris full speech - somehow you feel they can bring themselves to do it - the text is rather good - i want to hear the whole thing -
i also want to hear all of kens speech
but they cut to a reporter saying she has spoken to some who think Boris will be a disaster - that piece of airtime has no value at all
Yes, Yougov picked up the squeeze on the Lib Dems and minor parties, in a tight Con/Lab contest. Minor parties still managed about 25% for the list though.
56 - A quick look at the results I can’t find an assembly seat where the Lib Dem share is up and on london wide the share is down.
58 try the red button on your remote if you have one..it might be there???
56 - the Lib Dems did indeed, and if SBS can admit his mistakes, so can I. The Lib Dems should feel really good about that, if wistful that the anti-Labour vote is moving directly to the Tories.
55. Paul D. I agree. I can’t see how Labour can possibly turn things around.
Brown has made so many strategic mistakes that he is tarnished beyond repair. The reason for the Brown bounce was that the public were ready for a no nonsense, straight, dependable, steady, dour leader, with a clear principled vision who would do the right things for the country and not play politics. In Brown they thought they had found their man.
He has squandered a great opportunity through maladroit, petty, superficial politicking. He is the architect of his own downfall.
At the 2001 election the mood in was more of a customer service satisfaction survey, not all that many people had filled it in but they were pleased with the work so far and felt more could be done by Labour that they would like.
In 2005 the overall majority was exactly what people wanted, not a Conservative government, not a slim Labour majority but one healthy enough to still give Blair a kick in the pants.
Next time, if the mood is as now, there’s definitely a will to remove Labour but up until the last few weeks I would say there was no real enthusiasm to make Cameron PM. With the past week I would just push the Conservatives from largest party to slim overall majority.
While the extrapolation of Thursday’s votes into Westminster seats aren’t useless, they are after all based on actual votes, this wasn’t a GE, no votes were cast in a lot of places (Like Scotland) and the difference between now and 1997 is that Labour were 70 odd MP’s behind the Conservatives, not 150. I think that the current 330-340 Tory seats market is the most realistic.
Heffer hates Cameron, so the fact that the tories are doing well rankles. He desperately wants them to fail and for a right winger to come and sweep Labour out of power. He has invested so mcuh time and effort into this stane that reversing it would make him look even more stupid, although he looks like a ginger version of the penguin at the moment anyway.
the idiot jacqui smith just on sky making a tit of herself. she praised gordon to the hilt….. they are dead and they know it.
63 Absolutely spot on, StJohn.
If they could get rid of him now, they’d have half a chance at the next GE but I can’t see it happening. It would be very difficult to remove him now when less than a year ago nobody had the cojones to stand against him.
Btw, how was the Mayoral for you? It was never a big market for me but I was pleasantly surprised how profitable it turned out.
Finally, I have gone for Ravens Pass at 4/1 in the Guineas, mainly because I regards New Approach as an opposable favorite.
Yougov was very reliable for the Conservative and Labour vote.
For the Lib Dems the picture is mixed. Yougov over estimated the Mayor vote and under estimated the national vote.
Why would that be? Perhaps in London there are more alternatives for the “protest vote” segment that votes Lib Dems.
In the national vote estimate derived from council elections, the Lib Dems seem to score “higher” than the national polls.
Is that because the national vote is only calculated where there are all 3 candidates? If so because the Lib Dems do not stand everywhere (about 10% less than the Cs) but instead focus where their vote chances are higher which raises the average? Can anyone shed light on this?
67. Peter. Good to see you posting. I did very well on Boris. I found some cojones myself by not seeking to go all GREEN on the other candidates, as I was persuaded by the views of Mike, Sean Fear, Tory Boy and YouGov’s polling figures that the value was with Boris.
Good luck with your Guineas bet. I will have a look.
69 Yes, that’s pretty much how it was for me, StJohn. I was very cautious at first and kept an all green book until the last few days when I was persuaded by Mike, PfP and othe PB luminaries to get brave and back Boris. Glad I did now.
Thanks to one and all.
60 James, Yes I have checked and agree.
BNP got the 5% threshold and one seat, everyone should be concerned by that.
I think it’s worth re-posting this from last night. It’s by Luke Akehurst, a Hackney Labour councillor (I’ve left out a paragraph):
You have to have something to say to the white C1s and C2s in Havering and Croydon and Bexley. I never saw anything in Ken’s messaging or positioning that acknowledged that these people were Londoners too and addressed their concerns directly - and in fact we boxed ourselves into a turnout battle against the suburbs - something that we were never going to win, rather than trying to get the kind of white van drivers who voted Blair in 1997 on side.
This doesn’t just apply to London - Labour will not win the next General Election unless we occupy the centre ground, develop policies that resonate with the suburbs, the C1s and C2s and avoid the temptations of comfort zone politics. However great the campaign, however great the candidate, you can’t win without triangulating. That’s why Blair and Clinton won and Kerry, Gore, and tonight Livingstone, did not.
The problem for Labour is that there is no community of interest between “the suburbs, the C1s and C2s” and its core vote, itself a coaltion of disparate interests and world-views. This reveals itself not only in economic policy, but also in issues such as identity cards and imperialistic foreign policy. As Akehurst acknowledges, race is now as important as class, and the “left” - as we have all understood it these hundred years - cannot construct a coherent narrative in these circumstances.
That is why Labour did not touch rock bottom in these elections, although it had some success with race politics in London, holding Enfield/Haringey and gaining Brent/Harrow (which none of us saw coming).
Nor is it a new problem. During the miners’ strike a generation ago, I pointed out to one of their leaders (from Yorkshire FWIW) that in order for there to be a Labour government Labour would have to win Great Yarmouth. “What,” I asked him, “do you have in common with people in Great Yarmouth?” His reply: “f***ing nothing, I hope”. I told him that now he knew why he was going to lose the strike.
It is even truer to-day. The experience of the 1997-2010 NuLab governments will have taught Labour’s core that the price of an election-winning co-alition is their very soul. The road back does not lead through re-presentation of policies and personalities, through think tanks and focus groups. There is no road back.
Tory attacks on Labour here are like sticking daggers into hospice residents. Cameron will get a hegemony that Thatcher and Blair could only have dreamt of: it used to be said that Thatcher had the priceless asset of a divided opposition, and so she did. It was, however, divided only two ways (in England): Cameron’s will be divided in three - for when the Bexleys and Haverings of this world are disillusioned by the next Tory government they will not turn to the left, but to the neo-fascist right.
56-I do not think that is the case.In fact anecdotal and voting evidence points to the exact opposite in my area(Sutton)where there are 2 sitting LD MPs.
The higher the turnout the worse it gets for the LDs in GE terms.
49. Pretty close - he got 53.2%
Full results are at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_mayoral_election,_2008
72 Fine analysis, as usual, Innocent. Long may you post on PB.com.
72. Yes very good though I’m not convinced about the last paragraph.
The problem Labour has is massively apparent in how supporters, MPs and ministers have reacted to the results. Do they look for a new leader? Do they do a ‘re-launch’? Do they need new policies? These are completely the wrong questions to be asking - or at least the implicit answers they contain are the wrong ones to be getting. If Labour is to make a recovery in the polls it needs to stop spinning and get on with delivering.
Trying to massage over the results with the distraction of more disjointed policy, underdeveloped and rushed out in an attempt to grab the media agenda and undermine the opposition is not going to work. We have seen that with the 42-day proposal and the 10p-tax band issue (and that at least was thought out in advance). But both were policies developed from a position of psychological weakness: “how can we stop the Tories looking good on this subject?”.
Governments need to look in control. Gordon needs to find his vision, state what it is (preferably in line with the 2005 manifesto as he doesn’t really have a mandate for anything else), develop a set of coherent policies to deliver it, and get on with implementing them. Flailing about in the hope of doing something popular will simply lead to more charges of dithering - as it will be more wasted time - and will probably mean more u-turns as some ideas inevitably turn out to be less popular than first envisaged.
Question is: can the government do this? The omens are not good. Most of the cabinet matured as politicians in the decade when Labour was massively popular nationally, and that’s especially true of those closest to Brown - people like Balls, Alexander and Ed Miliband. They have no experience of how to deal with the public when the mood is against their party; they have no experience of governing against the tide.
My bet will be that their tactics will be wrong: they will do more of the same, working on the core assumption that the Tories are really the unpopular, nasty party and that as long as they look to be aiming to do the right thing, they’ll be ok. But it’s not just about image now, it’s about substance (which as a government, they’re actually better placed to do something about than any other party), and I expect image-management to get in the way of delivery.
I expect Brown to stay in office, and wait almost the full five years before calling a general election for May 2010, which he will then lose, quite possibly outright.
62 Well another LibDem being honest - I thought our London result was somewhere between poor and terrible, despite rather surprsingly good results elsewhere.
I wouldn’t agree that we should be wistful about the anti-Labour vote moving to the Tories though. In the overwhelming majority of cases where we were in second the Labour votes went to us. The trouble is that the Tories are second in a lot more places.
A lot of people will then say we should turn our fire on Labour, forgetting that one of the reasons we are not second in a lot of places is that they were neglected in favour of turning our fire on the Tories when they were weak. We need to ensure we are fighting everywhere so when the pendulum swings back (as it surely will) we are in a good position to make gains from the Tories again.
The trouble is we are beyond rubbish at fighting the “air war” - as results in all large scale elections whether London on the Euros show.
I’d like to make a prediction - when the elected House of Lords finally comes the LibDems will do much worse than expected.
Sorry for the long post…
I’ve just noticed. Boris got more first preference votes than Norris did in 2000 and 2004 put together
Boris 2008: 1,043,761
Norris 2000 + Norris 2004: 1,006,857
77 Superb post.. absolutely sure you will be right.
18 - urw, it seems counter-intuitive to be backing something at a lower price than you’re laying it unless i’ve misunderstood your initial post.
It could be why I lost on D4F, although it was great preparation for trading on betfair.
74, thanks:)
Didn’t do too badly, though I suspect some got nearer. I cocked up the other votes though, if memory serves.
Camerons on his way now. The events yesterday were history changing. The depth of Labour’s losses was such that Browns authority and credibility can never recover. Labour cannot underestimate the terrible position they find themselves in (despite a reasonably good showing in the London Assembly) Power shifted to the Conservatives yesterday and they won’t ever get it back. Whilst they will remain in office, the momentum is now with the Tories. I fully expect Cameron to end up with a majority of 40-50 seats at the general election.
BTW, anybody know is Sir Ian Blair has quit yet?
81. tatty. It does appear counter intuitive. But on spread betting the LOWER your BUY position the HIGHER your price. Say the market is 0-10. If you BUY at 4 then you risk losing 4 if the outcome is 0 and you gain 6 if the outcome is 10. So odds are 6/4. If you buy at 6 the odds are 4/6, shorter.
BUY LOW, SELL HIGH.
515 (from previous thread)
“somewhat disturbingly, only two more than the BNP. The latter is a cause for concern……Overall though…. the election was a victory for democracy”
Exactly. Democracy sometimes means that your political foes win and you don’t, something that some very bitter Labour supporters seem to find very difficult to accept.
Their venomous response to defeat suggests that their removal from power is long overdue.
22/33/42/57 The ward by ward result spreadsheet. It was about 2 or 3 weeks after the 2004 election that this appeared. I and others have never got to the bottom as to whether it was a private document that got leaked and copied. Certainly, there is nowing in the GLA election rules that the results should be published in that format. No such document got circulated for the 2000 election.
I do think that for electronic counting, this would show transparency.
Does anyone know if such a spreadsheet was produced for other elections counted electronically.
I will have some more to say about the electronic counting in a moment.
84 - Thanks stjohn, I get it now.
32 - The Squeeze and the Lib Dem vote. Previous postings from me had suggested that the Lib Dem vote in the London Elections was being squeezed - and many people derided me for my observation. It was the classic two horse race. It is not only the Lib Dem that can squuze votes. It would not surprise me if the London Elections will always be polarised by Labour and the Conservatives, as indeed the GLC was.
82, I’ve just looked at my own predictions. The only one where I was more than 1% off was UKIP (I predicted 2.1%, they got 0.91%).
I got Boris within 0.88%, Ken within 0.92% and Brian within 0.17%, runoff within 0.48% (BNP within 0.15%, Greens within 0.35%, Left List within 0.68%).
I’m definitely getting better at these
(But I bet someone else will have got them even closer
)
81 tatty- I kept on buying LAB and no sooner had I backed them than their Spread pricee got lower !No panic as I could still quasi arb on Betfair.Eventually from an initial 252.5 (Mike’s price) LAB shrunk to an incredible 222.5 at which point I took the lot.This price was manifestly crazy and I was very relaxed about buying it.
With that,Mr.Smithson stepped in and LAB rose to the 240s, whereupon I Sold back at a profit.The nice part was that my adventures didn’t cost me a penny either.
I was feeling pretty smug about my £400+ profit until Mike Smithson related his £3000 win.Unlike me,every move he made was worthy of a Kasparov !
I may have to have him shot !
Morning Campers !!!!!!!!!!!
What a fine day ….. the birds are twittering and so are the Tories, very tunefully too and then there’s the very real prospect that Mrs Jack W will reprieve moi from a trip to the smoke. Wallet sighs !!!!
My brief analysis of the main players.
Labour - Almost as bad as as it could have been. Strangely what relief came was almost lost in the Boris deluge in that some of the GLA results from London were somewhat better than might have been predicted earlier in the day. Livingstone remains a big beast in the Labour jungle and Labour can thank him for preventing a disaster in the capital.
Conservatives - The ghosts of John Major and Mrs T are erased. Cameron appears as Blair did in the mid 90’s as a PM in waiting. However two years is a long time to wait and it’s likely both he and the party will come under greater scrutiny. And then there’s Boris. If he’s a success alls well and good for Cameron but if BoJo starts to preside over a gaffe filled administration then IMO he’ll be a terrible drag on the Tories and will clearly be used as a stick to beat Cameron. And now the Crewe by-election elephant trap beckons !!
LibDems. Patchy performance. Somewhat better in councillors than they truly feared. Some very good performances in their marginal constituencies - Eastleigh, Colchester, South Lakeland and others that will mean crude forecasting of UNS losses for Lib Dems will be wide of the mark. However the London performance was awful. Ploddick was a piss poor candidate and was a drag on their GLA candidates. Useful publicity pushing Labour into third.
ARSE Exit Poll. Right result but overstated BoJo mojo !! …. Too much polling in Claridges. Right cheek to be tweeked for future use.
89, gone to check my own results in detail.
Final result, I was 0.4% off Boris’ victory margin.
Paddick - 1.2% out
Greens - 2.3% out (blimey)
BNP - 0.7% out
Left List - 0.3% out
Boris (first prefs) - 2.2% out
Ken - 2.2% out
UKIP - 2.9% out
Quite a few howlers though. Probably just as well I’m not a betting man:p
Still, got close with the final result. I blame my inaccurate predictions on the electorate.
Yes.
72. Excellent post.
I’ll just share this from the new statesman “whispers” column; for the C&N selection labour are apparently seeking someone who worked in the local rolls royce factory as a counterpoint to the Tory candidate. I think it’s a good idea, as part of their campaign but playing the whole contest around race or class will not work. Labour need to realise these aren’t the same Tories as 1997 and the battles of 1997 aren’t the same battles as now.
Congratulations to all of the Tories for their victories. I think they ran a good campaign, and such a high turnout in the mayoral election can only be a good thing for democracy. I hope the next government runs the mayoral office across several different cities.
63. 72. 77. All fantastic posts.
BTW, does anyone know if there are any opportunities to bet on Ian Blair resigning this year?
[92] Morris Dancer laments I blame my inaccurate predictions on the electorate - oh, we all do that
Can someone tell me how the BNP did? i’m not fully caught up on the action yet.
How many seats did the Pratriots win in both local and london elections?
32 are these London results dangerous for the LDs? 9% and 11%!
Yes. We had in London a strong Labour candidate able to increase the Labour 1st preference vote whilst the national support was crumbling.
Nationally the LDs have treaded water so if Labour do have a resurgence then the LD vote could rapidly fall, which is what happened in Brown’s honeymoon.
97, these election results were particularly bad for Labour because they started from rock bottom, but managed to dig downwards significantly.
Be interesting to see the results from the next local elections, where presumably Labour won’t start from quite so low a base.
Also, it’d be interesting to see how the Lib Dems do, given that they more or less maintained a decent position this time round.
96 astroturfing?
The London Counts. While I accept that the turnout was higher than London Elect expected, proven by the fact that some polling stations run out of ballot papers and had to send people away to come back later, the count was even worse than 2004. Each count took over 14 hours, four more hours than the worse predictions. I am told that there will be many questions asked by the GLA Election scrutiny committee. The boards with the run time results were a welcomed addition, but this time we lost the ability to see which areas were being counted. So in the early part of the day, the Conservatives were miles ahead in Enfield and Haringey - only now can it be assumed that they were counting the more Conservative areas at that point.
At the verification stage, the margin of error is 3%. At other elections, if there are one or two ballot papers missing they recount, but for this election, there was sometimes as many as 30 “missing”.
The scanners did work much better than previously, although scanning the postal votes caused problems, due to the glue from sealing down the envelope.
When going throuigh the spoilt ballot papers at other elections, it is left to the Election Agents. At the London Elections, it is a free for all and a shouting match! As anyone can put in their two pennyworth. This is made all the more complicated by the fact that the staff dealing with spolit papers changes during the day. So no continuity. One might accept a ballot paper where someone has changed their vote and initialed it, and another one does not etc.
The GLA Election committee report will make interesting reading.
99. Nope?
I’m quite a regular poster.
72 A very interesting post. It’s a dilemna for Labour. The good Assembly results, and the strong performance by Ken obviously show that there are a lot of votes for them in identity politics, at the same time as it undermines their support among white working, and lower middle class, voters, who would once have backed them. That matters less in London, where white C1 and C2 voters are not that numerous, but it matters hugely in the rest of the South and Midlands where they are. I see that even Stevenage is now beginning to move against Labour. I expect that, in common with the rest of new towns around London, Stevenage will now switch heavily away from Labour.
Morning all
First a comment on the betting - and betting strategy - I was on Ken and lost - despite following the words of wisdom on here I had a view that Londoners would stick with KL in substantial numbers- as they had against the Blair machine when he won the Mayor role initially. It was clear to me by the time of the 10p tax controversy that Boris was a likely winner - and I effectively wrote off the bet as a loss. Yet at 8pm ish last night I *could* still have laid KL and turned BJ green, and mitigated the loss. But that would have meant a red of £1k against KL’s name. Despite the odds on BJ, and everyone from the BBC to the Labour Party saying BJ had won the little man in my head saying ‘Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose’- there is a lesson for me there- obviously my exposure was small- would be interested in views on tactics in these scenarios. I could obviously have laid KL earlier in the week - but it is the first time I have bet ‘in play’ in a major election so some lessons to learn. My loss here almost exactly equal to my win on Hilary in New Hampshire.
To the politics
Congratulations to Boris Johnson on his election, and to Ken Livingstone on his concession. Sometimes it is worth pausing to remember how good it is to live in a mature democracy. The next item on the news was the situation in Zimbabwe, and I remembered an interview with a Zanu PF spokesman who would not answer the question will Mugabe stand down if he loses? - whatever we say about Britain - our votes count.
For me the issue here is are we in 1981, 1986, 1991, or 1995. Most of the talking heads are acting as if the answer is 1995. maybe I spent too much of my misspent youth watching Peter Snows ‘bit of fun’ showing lines of graphical labour MPs flying past the winning post on local election nights only to see the Tories re-elected at Westminster.
The tories are not in any sense ‘home and hosed’ though Labour are in a mess. The Council election here in Leeds makes interesting reading -Conservative 31.41%,Labour 28.67%,Lib Dem 18.89%. Yet only one seat changed hands - a Lib Dem gain from Tory.(Even that was an oddity because the Councillor concerned had beem elected as a Lib Dem - and it is now again a solid Lib Dem ward). The tories did indeed ‘pile up votes’ in their wards, while not really making a dent in Labour wards where the battle was Lab v Lib Dem.
So the Council is now Labour 43, Liberal Democrat 24, Conservative 22, Morley Borough Independent 5, Green Party 3, Independent 1, BNP 1. IIRC in 1990/1991 Labour had nearly 80 of the 99 seats - yet in the Westminster election in 92 the Tories held their 4 seats and JM won. Now the only seat which has fallen to from the Labour wipe out of 97 is Leeds NW which was gained by the LDs on the student vote (and Tory tactical voting) It still looks uphill for the Tories to regain seats in Leeds.
So I think it will be events dear boy, and the economy stupid - as ever. Labour need
1) The economy to soft land and recover by 2010 - seems to be a good chance of this - although House prices is the great unknown
2) The Northern rock and bonds gamble to pay off - and make returns to the exchequer before 2010 so that their is some headroom in the public spending to give some money back to the low paid in particular
3) To have a clear and comprehensible tax plan which can be defended with vigour (income and ‘purchase’) - and can blunt Tory attacks and populist moves like the IHT
4) To have strong ministers to deliver 1-3 - that seems to me to be the most difficult part of the package - but he must have his strongest ministers at the treasury and home office. For me that is D Milliband and H Benn. If Milliband is the serious rival he needs to be given an important home ministry - much as J Major gave a role to M Hestletine. The only other minister who has performmed is Johnson, and to a lesser extent Blears- he should bring in some ’street fighters’ from the back benches to replace a few boring suits
To conclude - I think Labour can still win - but Gord has to address these key issues. The incumbent government still has a lot of levers to support its position - but only as part of a credible plan.
Labour Home seems to think Straw (or Milliband) might challenge Gordon
http://www.labourhome.org/story/2008/5/2/20558/84195
Some of the Sundays will make very grim reading for Brown and his little coterie.
104 look in the comments by Recess Monkey (alex Hilton)
In short I cant see how Labour will recover sufficiently, especially if Brown is at the helm, by 2010.
Its up to the Tories to muck it up.
I’ve been an immensely long range (2006&07) Tory investor. Apart from the post Brown ascendency blip when there may have been an election and the Tories were farting about with policies few connected with and I layed off as best I could to restrict damage. I soon returned to the market to top up again before Labour’s absolute poll collpase and am now sitting pretty.
Backing Tory to me personally has little value in the straight markets given the ok odds I have the Tories at but others who are topping up further may find it interesting as an add on.
The seat market though can offer prospects as it will swing a bit as it always does. My only worry would be just how much swing as we could have a pattern established of Labour doldrums for some time to come.
Regarding the high turnout, is it too much to hope that the givernment will now realise that the way to get a high turnout is to present voters with a real choice, rather than b*ggering around with postal voting?
103 “1) The economy to soft land and recover by 2010 - seems to be a good chance of this…”
Dream on!! We are only just entering the downturn, the economic cycle has turned and will not pick up again for at least 3 to 4 years and probably longer. There is still £1.4 trillion of consumer debt, and unknown bank/hedge fund/pension fund losses to unwind, along with a record, and growing, budget deficit and trade gap. The house price bubble, which, in large part, financed the illusion of economic prosperity, is just beginning to burst and is likely to correct by at least 30 to 40%. The huge consumer and financial sectors are heading for massive contraction and the pound is sinking on Forex.
Watch unemployment, bankruptcies, and repossessions rise strongly from now on; all a natural consequence of Brown’s reckless profligacy in encouraging the debt-fuelled boom of recent years.
The chickens are coming home to roost just as the Austrian economists and others warned they would do. And that’s not gloating (before anyone accuses me of it) just reality.
I’m looking forward to reading many such articles on Comment is Free. I trust Polly Toynbee and YAB will step up to the mark http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/john_harris/2008/05/enter_the_jester.html
Casino would like to gloat about the fact he predicted the election as:
53%-Boris, 47%-Ken - which is exactly what happened!!
He is also £100 richer and a very happy man this morning
Now - when will Betfair pay out on Italy?
100 - Re: staff dealing with spoilt ballot papers. It is true that this could have been a problem. Some polling stations will have played it strictly by the book - if an individual expresses any concerns then give them three new ballot papers and cancel the existing ones.
Others will have expressed a judgement and let the vote be cast. Doubt it was a major problem though.
110. I don’t see much wrong with that. Surely, the telegraph or the mail would have run a similar editorial if Ken had won?
103. Sorry to hear about your loss, it’s happened to us all, but it does sound like your Betting was very much “Heart over Head”.
You simply cannot afford to act like this if you want to make money.
You *must* judge the evidence dispassionately.
I also liked this from Labour Home ] http://www.labourhome.org/story/2008/5/2/101659/4492
Heffer is right in one respect, and DC knows it. Yesterday’s votes were anti-labour, not pro-tory. DC was aware of it, because he pointed out that people had ‘looked at the tory party, and liked what they saw’. Very different from liking tory policies, as Heffer would accurately observe.
But as govts lose elections rather than oppositions winning them, DC’s stratgey is far more politically astute than Heffer’s.
113 Talking of David Cameron laying waste to the welfare state is a bit OTT, surely? Personally, I’d be very happy if he did, but he won’t.
110. This is the problem with “the Left”. They simply get incredibly angry when they lose and start blaming everyone but themselves.
The media. The voters. The candidates. Stupidity. Bad Education. A government conspiracy.
They also can’t resist shouting: “TRAAAITOR!!!!” to lose who, they believe, have let them down - like Strike-Breaking “Scabs” who’ve broken ranks.
They completely miss the point.
They are incapable of understanding how they could lose. They also fail to understand why others don’t see the world as they do - through the prism of racial, gender and class politics.
For every article like this that’s written, you can add another 10,000 votes lost to the left at the next election.
I thought I was well up on my Boris quotations, but just found one I’d not heard before:
“Voting Tory will cause your wife to have bigger breasts and increase your chances of owning a BMW M3. “
What a legend!
117. Yes, but a certain amount of exaggeration is allowed, to entertain and get people to buy newspapers, surely?
It’s more of a polemic than analysis, but polemics have their place.
113 - I don’t think so. It’s a classic “so speak the people, and the people are wrong” piece. Just ungracious, negative, and shows a failure for self analysis in that all the stuff produced prior to the election might just have been wrong. Contrast with Ken’s response to defeat which shows how it should be done.
For me Boris’s victory confirmed my thoughts last October - when Cameron’s speech, Osborne’s IHT proposal (and Gordo’s Iraq adventure) almost overnight brought back the suburban Blair Tories to the Conservative Party (and at the time quite a few suburban Lib Dems) - that the New Labour coalition had weakened to the point that those target Tory voters were waiting for an excuse to return to the Blues.
I cannot see Gordon Brown finding the policies to win them back now that his authority with the parliamentary Labour Party is so damaged. Ed Balls’s interview recognised the mistakes but his vituperative attacks on schools for admission policies and so on show the tension that now exists between attempting to gain popularity with sections of MPs and with those parts of the electorate needed for a Labour victory but not core Labour voters.
A Labour defeat will hit most the 1997 MP entrants and leave those in core vote constituencies, who are veterans of the 80’s and 90’s caught up in the old politics. It happened in 1997 to the Tories and its taken two election defeats to refresh the parliamentary party enough for the Conservatives to move away from inward looking core policies. It will take a victory before there are sufficient new faces to firm up the Cameron agenda. Think the same will happen to Labour, and they like us will have to face down the Lib Dems to retain their place as a possible governing party.
Final word - I think the scale of the Tory victory and its unexpectedness is exemplified by the fact two 18 year old councillors have been elected in Southampton. That has echoes of 1995 & 1997.
110, he raises the ‘racist remarks’, seemingly forgetting about Ken, and seems to think that people who go to good private schools should be barred from public office. Interesting approach to equality.
Also entertaining to see the ‘poisonous influence of the Evening Standard’ referred to. If only the Standard could match the paragon of impartiality - the Guardian:p
Punters certainly see Brown’s future as precarious. Only 4s on Betfair for a departure later this year, and Jack Straw 4s as next PM as well…
121 Yes, I thought a very gracious concession speech.
120 I just don’t think that such an article serves any useful purpose.
122 - I expect an increasing number of Labour MPs, some of whom like Tories standing down in 1997 have never experienced opposition, to announce that they are standing down.
Just a thought - with all these 30-40 yr old privately educated politicians dominating the political scene, is this the final evidence (or vindication from a Tory electoral success point of view) of the disaster that was the introduction of the General Certificate of Secondary Education?
Although I posted late, late last night, I would again like to hat tip Caveman for spotting the 7/4 value with Hills in backing Ken to win the 2nd Prefs. This put the icing on a good day for me and hopefully for others.
121. I haven’t been a fan of the guardian’s coverage of the london elections, but this one is a rather inoffensive piece.
In a democracy we are allowed to question the decision of the people. I’m sure there were many Tories after, 2001 and 2005 who were thinking “how can people keep voting this shower of idiots in.”
O/T There is a Scottish poll in the Herald today by TNS.
Westminster
Labour - 39%
SNP - 31%
Tories - 17%
Lib Dems - 10%
Holyrood
SNP - 45%/41%
Labour - 31%/29%
Tories - 12%/12%
Lib Dems - 11%/12%
This poll comes with a bit of a health warning as TNS’s track record is not the best and tends to significantly understate Tory support.
129 - Surely the whole point of a democracy is that “the people” are always right?
116. This is just Labour spin. W