Does Gordon’s future rest on Crewe and Nantwich?
May 4th, 2008
What will the headlines be like three weeks today?
It has become one of the great hardy annuals in UK political journalism - the Sunday papers after the May elections when year in year out the main story has been about the future of one party leader or another.
And so it is today and above are a couple of the front pages. But is it different this time? Does Labour’s worst local election performance for forty years combined with the loss of the London mayoralty add up to something more.
Quite simply is Gordon going to survive to fight the next general election? For the problem this weekend is that there are maybe 200 Labour MPs who are anxiously looking at the numbers in their own seats and thinking that they might be out of work in the not too distant future - that their political careers could be over.
Brown’s greatest asset is the same as it was a year ago when the parliamentary party gave him the leadership and the keys to Number 10 without a contest - there is no obvious alternative.
In other by election defences since Labour arrived in 1997 such an approach simply did not resonate because the Tories were so weak and did not look like a government in waiting. But opinion is shifting as Alan Watkins notes in the Indy on Sunday “….the change during the morning after May Day was that, for the first time, people became convinced that Mr David Cameron could win an outright majority.”
You can, of course, bet on Brown’s survival or not. I like the “leaders at the next election” on Betfair which has yet to really take off. You’ve also got the “Brown departure date” where it just 3/1 that he will be out in Q2 2008.
Another possible betting opportunity is on the next Labour leader where David Miliband is the 2/1 favourite.
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I think a lot will depend on the outcome of Crewe and Nantwich. If Labour win it, Brown will have earned himself a temporary reprieve and space for recovery, by showing that Labour MPs are still electable and not all of England is yet ready to welcome in PM Cameron. On the other hand if the Conservatives win it, it would mark a new peak of success for them, and could be the final nail in the coffin for Brown. Commentators would ask, as many have this week, “If he can’t win here, can he win anywhere?”
Brown’s future is probably the same in the long-term either way - three years from now, he won’t be PM. But if Labour lose Crewe and Nantwich, the end for him could indeed come a lot more quickly than expected.
If Brown survives the 42-day detention vote he’ll be ok until next year’s Euro & local elections.
Besides - what ambitious MP would want take over now with the economic nightmare about to hit Britain over the next 18 months? Milliband won’t risk it and McDonnell won’t get enough support.
Back to the Patriots on the London assembly. I predicted the old-gang parties would fall in to the trap of ostracising Mr Barnbrook and they have gone for it hook, line & sinker. Britons have a natural sense of fair play. To make a democratically elected official a ‘pariah’ before he is even in office is spitting in the faces of those 131,000 Londoners who voted for him. Big mistake. This will backfire.
———————————-
The far-Right, anti-immigrant group is celebrating its biggest electoral breakthrough, which secured its first seat at City Hall.
But Richard Barnbrook has been warned to expect no co-operation from other parties and a possible boycott by staff, many of whom are from ethnic minorities.
As he launched into a victory speech at City Hall early yesterday, other politicians left the stage in protest.
Each assembly member is entitled to two staff to perform research and secretarial duties. Traditionally, these are non-political civil servants recruited from an internal pool.
But Richard Barnes, the Conservative leader on the 25-member assembly, said: “The BNP will have problems finding secretaries and getting support from the staff here, and I will totally support people’s right to say they don’t want to serve them.
“They may have a foot in the door but they won’t get anywhere near the levers of power.”
Len Duvall, the Labour group leader, said: “They are going to have to go and get their own people. Richard Barnbrook will have pariah status.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/boris_johnson/1924867/BNP-man-to-be-shunned-in-assembly.html
Would it be in Cameron’s interest to not try too hard in Crewe and Nantwich?
Let Labour win and any Conservative disappointment can be avoided by saying Labour won due to Dunwoody’s daughter being the candidate.
And more importantly, keep Brown in place.
3 As a Labourite,I do see your tactical point of view.
FWIW,I believe strongly the best GB can do is achieve a ‘1979-respectable defeat’ ie hold 260-odd MPs.
One (quite acidic by my own admission) point:
In the last 15 yeras 3 senior Labour politicians have died young-ish:
(i)John Smith,aged 55 1/2
(ii)Donald Dewar,aged 63
(iii)Robin Cook,aged 59
GB was 57 in February.As a husband and dad to toddlers I do NOT for one momnet wish ill fortune upon him,but it is surely not beyond the realms of fantasy that he may ,sometime in 6-12 months,retire ‘on health grounds’-obviously it would have been spun and bull*ted beyond belief,but I can see a door ajar for a caretaker Labour PM (probabaly Jack Straw) ,were this line of events to unfold
2 - Emily, you can’t expect decent people to work for/with someone as vile as Barnbrook. It’s just common sense, really.
I think if the Crewe and Nantwich electorate get the idea that they have the power to sign Gordo’s political death-warrant, they might just turn out by the shed load to do exactly that. The more speculation there is on the subject, the more likely it is to happen.
Let’s speculate!
The analysis is fundamentally flawed. Labour’s problem is not that Brown is unpopular. It is that many of its natural supporters are skint.
It is true that Brown and the idiots around him have made things worse with a series of too-clever-by-half stunts.
And that policies, some Blairite, some Brownite, pursued over the last few years have alienated Labour voters.
What can Straw do about any of this? Will Miliband drag America out of recession?
It really is like the last days of Major, when economic hardship among Tories was exacerbated by memory of the attacks on various professions by Ken Clark, and on businesses by Howe.
What Labour needs now is to find a few billion pound coins down the back of the sofa and use these to aid the poor, perhaps by reinstating the 10p band. One obvious place to look is the ID card scheme, which is hugely expensive and unlikely to attract many new votes.
And the best person to do this is Gordon Brown.
3 is a very decent point. Keeping Brown to the General Election looks like guaranteeing a Tory victory. David Miliband is fresh enough to actually slow the rot.
But from HIS point of view, it would be foolish. He would have a short premiership of 18 months. He’s young and good enough to hope to lead Labour to victory in 6 or 11 years from now.
I really rate the Miliband brothers. For that reason I hope they pick Ed Balls. Please god, if you really are a Tory at heart, make them pick Ed Balls!!!
The only sensible interim leader to avoid tainting the new generation with defeat is Jack Straw. I note his price is as short as 7s now.
As the SNP hit 45% in yesterday’s Herald/Taylor Nelson Sofres System 3 poll, the question is: “Does the Union’s future rest on Gordon?”
Frankly, if it does then the Union is f….d.
As Gordon himself said: the Scottish Labour Party are the “last line of defence”. Better start preparing the final obituary of the British Empire then…..
7- You really don’t think Gordon Brown is unpopular?
I want some of what you are smoking tonight
7 - Gordon Brown is held personally responsible for deliberately, wilfully and with full forethought abolishing the 10p band.
Kicking poor people in the teeth while being a Labour chancellor.
There is no getting round that. It is the issue. The simple identifiable single political issue that people can understand without lectures and without spin.
Whatever you think the rights and wrongs of the matter are, you will find it very hard to persuade anybody other than a pre-committed Brownite that the truth is anything different.
That’s why he’s toast - and he’s crisping his party up nicely along with him while he sits in Number 10 not having the courage to do the decent thing.
OK. Just to play along. Brown is ousted in a coup after a defeat in C and N in late May.
1. do we have any polling evidence that anyone would be any more popular.
2. what does ousting a leader they coronated only 11 months previously do to there brand?
3. what does imposing a second unelected Prime Minister in 12 months do to the labour brand? we are not Italy with revolving door coalitions?
4. What does a new leader do about the world economic situation ? bugger all?
5. will a new leader change policy? I’m not sure that they would. Is there a credible challenger who would scrap ID cards, had the cask to reinstate 10p etc.
6. changing leader was ment to make a break with the blair years and it hasn’t. Why will ditching brown be any better?
What people are canvassing here is the equivalent of John Redwood or Portillo winning in 1995. Does anyone really see a counter factual where the tories won in 1997?
I remain to be convinced that ditching brown gets labour anything, in fact aforced removal might cost them more.
10 — yes, of course Brown is unpopular but that is not the problem. It muddles cause and effect. People are not turning away from Labour because they have no money and/or have been on the sharp end of some ill-conceived policy or other, not because they don’t like the cut of Brown’s jib. We need a change of policy, not a change of leader.
11 — yes, Brown axed the 10p band, and it was a bloody silly thing to have done. But merely sticking Miliband in Number Ten won’t help Joe Public at Tesco’s checkout.
13 — typo: should be “People are turning away from Labour because …”
The person I feel most sorry for is Quentin Davies. I wonder what he feels about all this?
Dems pick up another seat in the House of Representatives.
LA-6 special election: Cazayoux (D) over Jenkins (R) by about 3000 votes. District is R+6.5.
Is Obama — Building a Religion?
Milliband? That wonky-mouthed nonentity?
Labour must be even more desperate than they look.
Straight from our resident Michael Fish:
“As for the leadership speculation, no serious challenge will happen. Trust me on this”
Oh, we do - we do!!
11 - Charlie - The 10p band? You simply don’t understand - as our illustrious MP with a PhD in sums so neatly put it last year:
“More subtly, it’s an example of Brown’s ability to seize the initiative, and if we see half a dozen more surprises like this in the next few months I think people will feel they’ve got a genuinely fresh wind in government.” - March 22, 2007
Trust me on this.
20 (continued)… and, in any event, he does think the 10p issue is off the boil (April 26, 2008 - TWICE!). Trust him on this
which labour mp in their right mind would want the leadership? apart from john mcdonnell.
only kate hoey or an mp prepared to undo the constitutional ratification could establish any credibility.
22. The only plausible rationale for a change would be a left-winger who, knowing he wouldn’t win the next election, would want to get in and push through as much “progressive reform” within the next two years as possible before losing, thereby at least motivating the core vote a little and maybe changing some things permanently (e.g. constitutional issues).
22 - There are 200 MPs facing not just Labour losing the election, but them losing their own seat, including some big names like I believe Charles Clarke. If any of them become leader then it may not turn around Labour’s fortune generally but it will sure turn around theirs fast.
For many potential candidates the choice between leader now and leader later may not be appealing, but for many others the choice is between leader now and unemployment later.
According to the BBC the Scottish Government are to establish a Scottish Veterans’ Fund.
When is the English Government going to establish an English Veterans’ Fund?
Welcome to the “United” Kingdom.
15 - OK That made me spit my coffee on my keyboard
crewe is now an almost impossible ask because of the sympathy vote for Tamsin. Brown should be OK.
Btw for that reason I think she was a dreadful choice politically. Labour were favourite to start with, but the candidate being Tamsin mean victory will now be meaningless for them and explained away by the circumstances. With another name, they would have received credit for the hold.
4. Patrick
John Smith, Donald Dewar and Gordon Brown were the 3 principal architects of Scottish devolution. I doubt that future generations of English historians will give them a very sympathetic write up. However, Scots historians will be singing their praises for generations to come.
15 Sweet justice. A hot place in hell beckons for people like him.
Regarding the main them, I’ve squared up my long position on the date of the next election over the past few days and reinvested (my profits only) on the short side.
Although I still anticipate and largely agree with the conventional wisdom that Brown will ‘do a Major/Micawber’ it’s increasingly questionable whether he will still be there to make the decision.
Labour’s best (only?) chance will surely be to call an immediate election having just installed a new leader who gives them a bounce,
however brief, in the polls.
If on the other hand it’s a bitterly contested leadership election
perhaps backing the LD’s (my keyboard appears to be possessed of demons this morning !) to be the second biggest party the morning after that election, whenever it is called, might also be worth a small investment ?
The alternatives to Gordon Brown fall into three categories:
(1) Elders who have been part of the top hierarchy since 1997 (e.g. Straw)
(2) Young talented types (e.g. Miliband)
(3) Young untalented types (e.g. Balls)
Because of the need for a horrendous stab in the back to bring down Brown, those in group 1 wouldn’t want to wreck their standing in the party by being the assassin. Those in group 2 are smart enough to stay clear of leadership of this crumbling Labour government. Those in group 3 would be no better than Brown so nobody in the party would go through such a crisis to get them.
Although as a liberal Conservative who wants Cameron to have a big enough majority not to be controlled by right-wingers, I hope they are stupid enough to put Balls in there.
Early voting in Indiana
Good news for Obama: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/22996214#24441808
30 — is Miliband really talented? Or just the fifth choice of Blairite anyone-but-Gordon this time last year?
16 - Quite an encouraging result for the Democrats in Louisiana. It’s the one state where there is a serious prospect of a Republican Senate gain (tight race last time, Mary Landrieu not massively popular, Republicans have the other seat, Democrat vote in New Orleans hit by evacuation). So a gain is good news for them.
Tactically we (Conservatives) need to lay off Brown a bit. We want to keep him there, deluded, defiant, dour and dangerous.
The last thing we want at this point is a new leader in Straw or Milliband. And it won’t be Balls. Labour aren’t foolish enough for a 2nd coronation (read “foisted PM”) - and in any contested leadership election, they surely couldn’t plump for Balls-up?
32 - I am not Labour but have always been quite impressed by David Miliband. He seems to have done well as Foreign Secretary - it is one area that Brown has not run into trouble despite a lot of challenging international issues. He presents himself well and appears quite competent.
Lib Dem candidate for Crewe and Nantwich http://www.elizabethshenton.com/
Suggestion that Brown is going to abandon the tax changes surrounding the 10p tax? Does this mean abandoning the genuine cut from 22 to 20p? Will the Tories hit 50% in the polls?
“For if the Tories are smart…..” So there is hope for Labour at C & N after all
Apologies, that wasn’t test. Don’t know why that happened.
Test, the benefit of the 10p band can easily be achieved by increasing everyone’s personal allowance by £1,000 and then once income exceeds about £8,000 reducing this additional personal allowance by £1 for every £10 of income.
Those earning £6,500 actually gain about £165 on last year (if income unchanged) those between £8,000 and £18,000 are £10 pa better off. The cost would be about £700m.
This is not a new, complicated, system, it already exists for those over 65 who get a similar additional personal allowance which is reduced once income goes over a threshold.
Then alex, [40] is addressed to you!!!
Not a local candidate then - doesn’t live in the constituency from what I can see.
That’s unusual for a Lib Dem by-election candidate. Wonder if that will have much of an effect?
Zogby Polls today
North Carolina Obama 48 Clinton 39 both up 2
Indiana Obama 43 Clinton 41, yesterday 43-42, lots of undecided
said to be 8% voting for somebody else.
32 - Is it only me that sees echoes of the praise heeped on Clegg before he became LibDem leader in the positive projections many seem to be confering on Miliband right now?
Never mind the strategic thinking on Tory ways of approaching C&N, Labour have the daughter up as opposition.
That will help Labour to some txtent, the question is how much.
Pleased that I can now read Alan watkins again without having to buy 2 Sunday papers ( For youger readers He used to write for the Observer now in the Indy on Sunday)
But can anyone help with the meaning of this line in today’s piece “Indeed, some of the projections of a Conservative majority – of over 100 – have clearly been a little bit exaggerated, as the lady from Edinburgh is supposed to have remarked on first being taken to a performance of Swan Lake.”
Full article here: http://tinyurl.com/3r9mor
43. Interesting numbers but I still think Clinton is favourite for IN.
If Obama is in that position then his odds, which didnt look up to much last night, look obviously better today.
44. Excellent Point.
Actually might start to buy The Independent - John Rentoul’s piece is wonderful
“The day Boris became Mayor was the beginning of the end for Dave
“That was when it all started to go wrong, thought David Cameron in the car on the way back from Buckingham Palace. It took only five minutes to return to Downing Street, but in that time he managed to blame at least four people for the collapse of his government and the fact that he had just become one of the shortest-serving prime ministers in history.
“It was all Boris’s fault,” he shouted at Sam.”
http://tinyurl.com/4fkk7e
If Crewe and nantwich becomes a refferendum on the government then Labour could come third, daughter or not. As shes been an AM and is a politico then its fair game. If she was press ganged into it then I’d feel sorry for her. I genuinely belive it could become another Christchurch or Ribble valley if the media feeding frenzy carries on.
49 - That’s not wonderful. It’s, erm, crap.
Can someone outline the procedure of how a hostile challenge could be made to Brown for leadership if he sat tight and didnt budge?
I’ve seen D Milliband on the front bench roaring with laughter at one of Hague’s jokes against Brown. He doesn’t need coaching in how to be human - so that gives him a head start in any contest v. Brown.
49 Surely the IoS must have been hit (like Pb.com) by impersonation as Rentoul’s piece was surely written by one of the Zoe Williams crowd?
Watkin’s reference is I believe to the exaggerated masculinity of male ballet dancers. Padded out a bit.
46
You really have led a sheltered life
But can anyone help with the meaning of this line in today’s piece “Indeed, some of the projections of a Conservative majority – of over 100 – have clearly been a little bit exaggerated, as the lady from Edinburgh is supposed to have remarked on first being taken to a performance of Swan Lake.”
I think the old lady might have been referring too, the bulge in the crotch area of the male dancers, don’t you?
Crewe and Nantwich could have the same effect on Brown as Darlington had on Michael Foot, only in reverse. A win for Labour at Darlington saved Foot, Brown may not be so lucky!
ABOUT THE INDIANA ZOGBY POLL
“As to Zogby and crosstabs, subscribers have access to detailed poll frequencies and crosstabs. Based on gender and race, here is what you need to know.
Based on the May 3 release, which was based on rolling poll over May 1-2, the poll frequencies and results in IN were as follows: overall HRC 41.7%, Obama 42.5%, someone else 7.4%, not sure 8.4%; Female 55% (HRC 43.6%, Obama 37.2%), Male 45% (HRC 39.4%, Obama 49%), White 83% (HRC 47%, Obama 37.2%), AA 11% (HRC 10.2%, Obama 81%).
Results in NC were as follows: overall HRC 37.2%, Obama 46%, someone else 8.2%, not sure 8.6%; Female 55% (HRC 39.2%, Obama 43%), Male 45% (HRC 34.7%, Obama 49.6%), White 62% (HRC 50.8%, Obama 33.4%), AA 32% (HRC 9.6%, Obama 72.5%).”
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_zogby_in_nc_512.php#comment-36978
On Crewe, I suspect that the impending Henley by-election will divert Lib Dem efforts. This is likely to hurt the Tories (as the Lib Dems would have been after the soft Labour vote). I still expect the Conservatives to win but Labour won’t come third and have a chance of hanging on.
Gordon’s future may rest on well he performs on television today.
It is heavy odds on he will use the phrase”lessons to be learned” which in the case of NuLabour is meaningless.
He would be well advised to “listen” to Frank Field and secondly remove that unmitigated disaster Alistair Darling.
Darlington By Election ‘83
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darlington_by-election%2C_1983
49. amusing in its way and a reminder of “events dear boy events” but i thiny of us on the liberal left have No plan B if Boris is a SUCCESS. After all he was ment to implode as a candidate and he didn’t. If he is a success then after 4/8 years he’ll have as high a name recognition among conservbative voters as cameron and the capacity for rubber chicken networking is enormous.
Boris for next Tory leader?
34 - “Tactically we (Conservatives) need to lay off Brown a bit.”
Sorry to pick this one post for critique out amongst many saying similar things, but it’s symptomatic of a somewhat flawed tactic I think. Winning elections, above all, is a momentum game. It’s all about convincing enough people that you’re winning, because that then turns into a virtuous circle.
Brown will not quit early & voluntarily for the good of his party - it’s not in his DNA. If he goes, he will have to be pushed out. That’s incredibly difficult within the Labour party’s system. Not impossible, but incredibly difficult. The odds of it happening are low. But suppose it did - what would the logical effect be?
First of all, it would require a damaging, very public revolt. The electorate hates divided parties. Labour would struggle to successfully unite around a new leader, beyond superficial appearances.
Second, yes, there would be a new caretaker leader and so potential for a Labour bounce. But would there be a significant momentum shift in favour of Labour as a result? Not if the electorate has got used to voting Conservative as the “time for a change” option. That’s why Cameron’s work in detoxifying the brand was so important (and why Blair’s work on the same was so important in his time in opposition). It means that regardless of who leads Labour, the voters won’t really care on a subconscious level. There may be a short-term dead cat bounce, but nothing more than that, and if there was a snap general election campaign the Labour message would basically be “give us another chance to do something different” versus the Conservative message of “give us a fresh chance to do something different”. Given events of the past few days, I have little doubt that a new Labour leader is unlikely to convince the electorate to choose them, esp. if they only got into the leadership as a result of divisive leadership contest.
In short, the Conservative need to keep hitting Labour as hard as they can - winning C&N, keeping a high media profile, presenting a strong positive presence in London via Boris, and essentially aiming to dominate the air war. There’s still an electoral mountain to climb in maintaining and improving their lead until the next GE, but that’s the way to do it.
Brown won’t go. Even if he’s forced, the odds are that Tories will still benefit, despite any caretaker PM, simply because the momentum will be with them and the electorate will view the dynamic in that light. Swing voters like to vote for the winners; the Tories need to keep up the pressure and keep looking like winners. Labour forcing Brown out would do their work for them.
Just coming down from a 48-hour long endorphin rush (local elections plus Boris plus Forest promotion). Calming myself down by reading some old posts from November. Often a critic of Mark Senior, but on this comment he was proved to be spot on with this projection:
175 LibDems in Eastleigh have 37 councillors the Conservatives 5 and will be down to 4 next May.
Mark Senior November 28th, 2007 at 7:12 pm
Some others, however, did not fare so well….(to be continued!)
Spreadfair’s US Presidential 25-10-0 index appears cheap at present with the combined buy prices of the 3 candidates, Obama (13.0) Clinton (5.6) and McCain (16.2) togather totalling less than the 35 point value of the index.
Of particular interest, IMHO, is the value for Obama. IF one is prepared to assume that ultimately he will prevail against Hillary (which is a considerable “if”, but still very likely), then his current price of 13.0 provides punters with effective odds of 3/1 of his overcoming Obama for the big prize, i.e. (25-13 = 12 point profit) versus (13-10 = 3 point loss). Assuming these two contenders were to be rated joint favourites, the mid point index value of both would be 17.5, thereby providing an opportunity for those of a nervous disposition to consider selling a sufficient element of the bet in order to achieve a worst position of break even, should McCain ultimately succeed to the Presidency.
Glancing at the odds of next Labour leader it is interesting to see Tony Blair and Ken Livingstone bracketed together at 100/1.
I just wonder about Ken!!!!
60 The Livingstone media claque worked themselves up into such a state they seem to have convinced themselves that Ken ran an efficient & cost effective administration that couldn’t be improved.
Sunday Telegraph reports Boris will announce 500 more police support officers on the Tube/Buses by cutting the Tfl publicity budget. The London Paper, Ken’s vanity publishing project, the PR/Marketing department at City Hall will be cut, the London Embassies will go. Boris will be able, initially at least to offer painless improvements in policing and crime.
The most interesting appointment is Kate Hoey, who will bring a sceptical eye to the Olympics spend. “What’s it for” was her question on Wembley, where she saw first hand how taxpayers cash was subverted and wasted by sports bureaucrats.
test
Is it all as simple as “Is Gordon Brown popular?” When Blair broke the traditional relationship between Labour and the unions the world didn’t suddenly come to an end. Likewise, people who for generations have voted Labour have changed their allegiances (e.g.Wales)and if this rupturing of the umbilical chord doesn’t prove to be disastrous then they may be encouraged to pick and choose who they vote for in the future - they might choose Labour but it is no longer a foregone conclusion and as the older generation inevitably dies then the younger voters will feel even less attachment to Labour. The Labour Party should really be asking itself “Does Labour have a future?”.
Michael White on the BBC paper review this morning - characteristically churlish. Went through Boris’ plans, a la Telegraph. When he read out plan to pour more police onto streets he said something like, “Can’t wait, excited already”. This man is supposed to have finger on political pulse.
65. Good. We have done something similar. While far from perfect PCSO’s are visible, relatively cheap, quick to recruit, touch a core public concern and are concrete rather than abstract. Any incomming local government administration anywhere won’t find a better deal than extra PCSO’s.
He should do the tree planting thing as well very quickly. We all know why leafy suburbs are called leafy suburbs and the photo ops are endless.
Morning Campers !!!!!!!!!
A couple of interesting overnight snippets from over the pond ;
Firstly, early voting turmout in North Carolina is huge. Over 325K and the good news for Obama is that differential black turnout is touching 40%. That’s even a few points higher than the estimated demograghic/differential of 35%-39%.
Secondly the Democrats won the special election in the the sixth district of Louisiana. Poor result for the GOP in the deep south in a district they’d held since 1974..
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/3/181119/8785/4/508498
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10062.html
[40] Thanks, Icarus. I’ve passed that on to my Treasury Mole. Though why you and I should be digging this government out of the hole I’ve no idea
Sort of on topic: Martin Ivens in the Sunday Times refers to Gordon Brown as an example of the Peter Principle. A guy called antifrank on pb.com did that MONTHS ago. (Apologies for no links, I’m on a blackberry).
70 Any idea how the new super delegate will go ?
2 on the BNP guy not getting any of the support all assembly members are entitled to.
This is another example of a way of treating the BNP which is just not working. Like them or not (and, to be honest Emily, most people don’t as I’m sure you’d admit!), it is ridiculous and undemocratic to withhold rights from elected representatives on the basis that you disagree with them, or even find their policies repugnant. You are not harming them. Worse, you are insulting those who have voted for them. Hence that call before the London elections not to vote for “hatred, violence and stupidity”. What was the point of that comment? I bet it wouldn’t have stopped a single person voting for the BNP because their publicity portrays them as completely different from the other parties anyway. To ignore them allows them to appear like the victims of politics. Surely the best way to deal with them is to engage constructively and show them up to be what they are. There are a fair few examples of BNP councillors who have been sacked from councils for not attending, or local parties which have collapsed (viz. Oldham), as well as the well-known split last year. Their race and immigration policies need to be discussed and then shown for the racist policies they are. The LACK of discussion, the “we mustn’t talk about the BNP because they’re nasty” policy is very dangerous because it leaves them alone in the debate and people listen and agree.
Peter Hitchens pours scorn on the present situation.
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
One area Brown could reconsider and it wouldn’t cost a penny would be to reverse his position on the Lisbon Treaty Referendum..
“I’ve listened, I’m sorry ; I was wrong…..”
It would instantly be worth several points on the polls.
A useful non political endorsement has come Obama’s way. Tom Hanks has decided to support the Illinois senator :
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/03/actor-tom-hanks-endorses_n_100001.html
40 Icarus - So why didn’t Darling simply propose this to Field, end of. Either because the Treasury was too incompetent to devise such a straightforward strategy or, more likely, because the Government has no intention of fully reimbursing everyone affected.
74 Completely agree Jimbo.
The BNP are strengthening incrementally because their voters feel they are being disenfranchised/being ignored.
Doing so overtly and with such distain will act as the best possibile recruiting Sgt to their cause.
They need to be argued down through the democratic process and put to flight on the strength of the argument.
76 A litle too late for that now - Stuart Wheeler is already on his case!
76. Until he loses it 80/20
73 YC. There has been some specualtion that a block of NC superdelegates will endorse Obama either Monday or immediately after the primary on Wednesday.
Obama will also pick up 3 SD’s from his home state either today or tomorrow.
Just had great fun reading the Lefty press this morning..Not surprisingly I have a rather different take to 49. on that idiotic piece by Rentoul in the so called “Independent”. They have taken the Conservative resurgence with much less grace than the Observer.
I guess we all need to find some crumbs of comfort where we can but if anyone thinks CCHQ is disspaointed and concerned that Boris won then their straw clutching has progressed to psychotic delusion. I am afraid its very sour grapes and an entirely unedifying spectacle. As was the Guardian/Observer pre-election..at least they seem to have restored civility and sanity.
[60] Boris’s mayoralty can go one of three ways:
- “foot in mouth” disease leads to London being one of the Tories’ less good regions at the General (I think unlikely, but he was gagging for a drink after the count);
- does a good job, but puts London ahead of party to the extent that he runs and wins as an independent in 2012 after falling out with Cameron;
- does a good job, his national Party supports him, gets re-elected and as you say becomes a player for the succession, possibly after winning Twickenham in 2014. (Why oh why is there no smiley for tongue-in-cheek?)
Probably all equally likely, though I have a slight bias towards the second scenario.
74. “The blood of the Martyrs is the Seed of the Church” as St Cyprian rightly said. Any obstruction of them in that way makes them free speech martyrs and is a recruiting seargent. In fact it validates one of there key narratives - that the pinko establishment is out to get them . I completely agree you have to argue with them and address the grievances that put them there in the first place.
Help. AOL won’t let me refresh the page unless I make a comment myself and I wouldn’t want to inflict that on you.
84 LOL - but by no means impossible.
81 In making the announcement PM Brown added-
“I have been convinced by the arguements and have come to believe myself it is a fundamental question of principle and have therefore agreed to allow MP’s from this side of the House a free vote on the subject to enable them to vote and campaign on the issue as they feel appropriate”
When it comes to leadership now, Labour have 4 real options:
1) Keep Brown and do nothing. This seems far the most likely given the timescale and the time that it take to remove and install a new leader. Only way it would happen probably is if Brown stood down and given his determination to get the top job this seems very unlikely.
2) Straw as the safe pair of hands to the election. He’s the only senior Labour figure with real face recognition and respect among the public (contrast Clarke/Reid/Smith/Miliband(too young, too unknown as yet)
3) Jump straight to Miliband. As others have said though, would he want it at this stage when he is seen as a potential leader in a few years time?
4) Return to the Labour roots and select Cruddas. I think this would be a very interesting choice and would potentially do great work in bringing back the white working class vote which seems to be departing to BNP/Conservatives, especially at these elections.
I think of all of these, Straw has the potential to bring the best result at a general election just because he is both known and likeable. With Brown at the helm, if things don’t change rapidly, we could be looking at 1983. There’s only one way things could be worse. Balls.
75. Someone else suffering from psychotic delusions…I can add Heffer and Portillo to the list. I guess both Hitchens, Heffer and Portillo had all set out and anti-Cameron stance and the better Davey C does the more extreme, ridiculous and incredible their analysis becomes. I couldnt give a toss about Heffer and Hitchens they were always idotic and extreme. I am much sadder about Portillo…
Does anyone really see a counter factual where the tories won in 1997
No - but they could have lost by a good deal less with a more aggressive programme of tax cuts and a solid eurosceptic stance. Redwood was right about that, though I doubt his presence in the top job would have been helpful.
88. Ok. lets think this through. Populist, some kudos from the mail/murdoch papers. shoots a tory fox. gives sense of a fresh start. would shaft the lib dems as loads of there MP’s would start making skeptical noises for home audiences
On the other hand which side is he on? he’ll have to camapaign one way or the other and if its sill yes and he loses, which he would its a blow. A big one.
The only way I could see it working is if he got the hand bag out and vetoed it on a point of principle but its too late now unless we have to renegotiate because of the Irish.
Good to see old Gordy can front up when it’s that nice Mr Marr doing the interview!
But what is this ’strong direction’ that the he keeps talking about it? Am I the only want to have missed it?
God bless the Irish !
Marr playing pat-a-cake with Brown, throwing marshmallows at him on BBC 1.
40, 71, 78,
However, it’s a regressive solution. It effectively resurrects the old 22p band for a segment of Basic Tax.
New allowance - £8000: 20p
£8000 - £18000: 22p*
£18000 - upper rate band: 20p.
*(20p as normal, plus the tax on the extra caused by the shift of the allowance band - 20p of one tenth (£1 per £10) of the increase in income = 20p + (20p/10) = 22p.
And I’d bet that opponents would use this line of attack.
‘The inflation problem bequethed to us by our predercessors’
What was inflation in 97? The man is mad.
He really is dreadful.
And whoever was suggesting that the ’salesman’ line of attack would be prominent from now on was bang on.The amusing thing was that Brown delivered the line appallingly - he could do with brushng up on his own selling skills.
Any Labour MPs watching this dire, unconvincing performance had better start scanning the ’situations vacant’ columns. The man is utterly useless.
98: Brown attacks Cameron for using soundbites with badly delivered soundbites.
[96] Apparently it’s OK to have regressive tax on pensioners, then?
89. Jon Cruddas’ particularly stark in his Sunday Mirror column today. Mirror leader column says:
‘If Gordon Brown is in any doubt about why Labour crashed to a historically terrible defeat at the local elections, he should read what Jon Cruddas writes in today’s Sunday Mirror.
In a defining article, Labour MP Mr Cruddas goes straight to the heart of the crisis. The party’s core supporters feel they no longer matter, he says. They believe they have been abandoned.’
http://www.sundaymirror.co.uk/news/columnists/opinion/2008/05/04/voice-of-the-sunday-mirror-brown-must-listen-to-true-supporters-98487-20404126/
Strong stuff from Cruddas:
‘Let’s not mess about - our people are abandoning us, we’re sinking fast and no amount of hand-wringing and promises of “listening and learning” from election night will change that.’
‘We’ve shut ourselves in Westminster strategy sessions and policy wonk conferences instead of getting out there to understand the material concerns of our people. There has been a rupture between the political-class and the working-class.’
‘Working-class voters have been let down and patronised by a Government that was elected to represent them.’
http://www.sundaymirror.co.uk/news/sunday/2008/05/04/mayday-mayday-party-in-crisis-98487-20404213/
i almost feel sorry for gordon brown………..!
Brown’s Marr approach is the same old stuff, but say it quicker.
Once again, he demonstrates he’s not listening even to Marr by ignoring most of his questions and just trotting out his lines
If this is the fightback, them there nu lab mp’s better get their CV’s out
Obama using two minute ads in both Indiana and NC :
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/03/obama-to-sell-campaign-in-new-two-minute-ads/
Come on - I don’t care which political party you support, Brown is dreadful. His performance on Marr is truly toe-curling - a series of programmed soundbites stuttered out by a man with fear in his eyes. He’s out of his depth.
“I’m not going to be put off by a few day’s headlines” Oh, so thats the problem then……
Marr just asked him if people thought that he was a bit weird. He said that he comes from a normal background that he likes to talk about ’sports and…’ (I bet he’s a right laugh in the pub after work!).
I think he would come across a lot better if he just admitted he is a bit wierd. Because he is, and everyone knows it.
104
What are the current tractor production figures. Has he mentioned them yet. Im sure he will have…
Keeps saying it’s global problem and all leaders are suffering. He just doesn’t get it does he.
The Guardianistas could tolerate Cameron while he looked like an amusing dinner party guest. The idea that *their* pet government might fall and all those nice jobs/advisory roles might vanish….. well, how are they going to pay the mortgages for the villas in Tuscany?
Mind you, screaming “Toff!” at frequent intervals isn’t going to save them.
With Labour choosing Dunwoodys daughter, Crewe and Nantwich is in the bag for Labour, I think. She’ll get a great sympathy vote and I would think nearly all of Gwynith Dunwoodys personal vote will transfer on to her.
If, by some chance Labour can’t win this by election, then I would think it may be curtains for Brown, but I don’t anticipate Milliband challenging. He’ll wait and try and take over from Opposition. No, if Brown falls Labour will go for an IDS/Michael Howard “safe pair of hands” scenario to try and at least shore up the core vote. In that scenario, Jack Straw would be the likely candidate, with a general election to follow within a short time.
101,
I don’t particularly agree for it for them, either. To be honest, before Icarus first brought it up, I didn’t know about it. It seems a bit of a con and I doubt it brings in much extra for the Treasury from pensioners, but I doubt that it’s had much focus placed on it before.
If they were to try it as a solution for everyone now, there would be a strong focus on it “looking for the catch”. Which might end up beneficial for those pensioners caught by it at the moment.
107: ‘I think he would come across a lot better if he just admitted he is a bit wierd. Because he is, and everyone knows it.’
Mostly I agree but a little more human would help.
102. All true Henry, but surely there is no surprise in this. Labour’s leadershiop has long consisted of middle class snobs who hold working people in contempt and would rather see them all replaced by forelock tugging immigrants.
re 6 even if Labour slump to third in Crewe their MPs still won’t have the balls to unseat Brown. They were spineless last year despite all the evidence and will remain so this year.
re 112. There’s 18 days to go and time enough for all that sentiment to evaporate. It’s not that many Labour voters will switch - it is just they they won’t bother to turn out.
102 Henry, were Labour to “skip a generation” when next selecting its leader, who in your opinion please would be the three front runners?
Oh dear …. me thinks some of our Sunday Morning Tories are sipping a little too much of that heady election winning complacency brew and thus clouding their rose tinted specs. !!
Brown on Marr wasn’t that bad. The PM’s delivery was slower, determined, forthright and somewhat more engaging than normal. I would say most non partisan viwers would perceive the interview as a decent showing in difficult circumstances.
116: Labour MPs will not dump brown until they think winning again is no longer and option under his leadership, and that a large defeat is in the offing.
Brown will be ripped into tiny little bits by Cameron in a GE campaign. After three weeks, all that will be left of him will be strips of air-dried biltong….
The worst problem is that when Brown is asked a question, you know he isn’t answering it and are distracted by looking at the obvious way in which he telegraphs that he isn’t answering it: the false smile, stuck onto a humourless mannekin; the mannerisms; the facial expressions. They all point up the disdain he holds for the question - and by extension, for us, the voters who want answers. All we need to know in hisworld is that Gordon is getting on with doing the Best He Can For Britain - and anybody that diverts him with these petty distractions of “accountability” is part of what is wrong with this country today….
114. He is now as ‘normal/ human’ as he is ever going to be - he’s brought in his advisers from outside politics to help him on his presentational skills, and that performance was what it produced.
The problem is that the narrative has changed, probably irrevocably; at the start of his leadership bounce he could’ve confessed to weirdness and they would have made it into virtue (Honest PM admits that all MPs are weird), but now he would be savaged for it. But of course, he’s only got himself to blame for that switch.
Oh, and America…
Brown said we were in a better financial position than other countries because we have been able to borrow even more now - ( Why does Marr miss these little manipulative statements and ask him exactly which countries we are better off than the UK - other interviewers would have skewered him on this
Browns statement is a bit like saying we are better off than the Jones’s next door because we have found a bank who will give us a new credit card with a £20 k limit and we are going to blow it this summer on a better holiday and a new car
So was that the fightback then?
Same old, same old. He clearly isn’t listening and certainly hasn’t learned.
He’s got three lines now:
Dave’s a slick salesman;
GPs are evil, overpaid, workshy shysters (2 mentions this morning)
Gordon comes from an ordinary family (meaning Cameron doesn’t).
Not exactly a winning formula to warm the cockles of a backbencher’s heart, is it.
Election 2010, outright majority of 50 for Cameron.
119, he was pretty awful. When asked what changes he’d made or would make post-locals he waffled on another topic entirely.
119 I thought he was absolutely awful. He had no answers to any of the questions raised - just sound bites that did not respond to the points Marr asked. Every time he showed that, in fact, he does not listen and he clearly has not heard the mood of the country.
Voter psychology in C and N will be complicated by the Tamsin Dunwoody nomination.
Some will be uneffected.
Some will want to show their regard for her mother.
Some will be disgusted that Labour are treating the constituency as a family estate to pass on.
In general the voters will have changed since Thursday as that was cathartic.
Some will have vented their ire at the government in the locals and may now be disposed not to kick them any more
Some of those will abstain and others move back.
Some will be even more incensed by the government’s behaviour since Thursday.
Some will feel exactly the same as they did last week.
Your assessment of the result will depend upon your assessment of the balance of these factors and what the various parties can do in that situation.
119 JackW, agreed it wasn’t a bad showing, repeat of last years post local elections appearance, will listen, understand your pain, free aspiration and talent but nothing new, no vision. It was Marr after all - an easy ride. Will be more interested in seeing Boulton get the questions in. Boulton and Paxman have the advantage of arrogance over Marr, less likely to accept tractor production figures.
118. In terms of skipping a generation within Government, one of David Miliband, Ed Miliband or James Purnell. They wouldn’t be prepared to stand against each other.
Outside of Government I’m thinking Cruddas might go for it. His Sunday Mirror article shows that a) he’s in touch with a lot of grassroots opinion, b) he’s not particularly bothered about a ministerial job and c) he’s probably mildly worried about his own seat. Cruddas is dangerous to Brown/Balls for those reasons.
Plus he scored the more first preferences in the deputy leadership contest than the other 5 cabinet contenders and ran a good campaign from the starting position of no profile whatsoever. Having no Government experience is a big negative, unless you’re of the view which the Government is toxic brand (which I don’t agree with) and there’s an advantage to not having been a Minister.
If the message gets through subtly that Tamsin Dunwoody’s candidacy is yet another cynical ploy, along with the 10p and photo ops with troops he is underfunding, inflation rates that are unrepresentative ( and created by Brown) then there could, I suppose, be a backlash in C and N.
127. Agreed. Its certainly not a typical situation though, is it?
If Labour do get rid of Brown and impose a “safe pair of hands” like Jack Straw in an IDS/Michael Howard type stitch up, how long could the government go before they offer the public a general election? I know officially there is no obligation to call an election until 2010, even if Labour changed its leader every year, but morally they would come under great pressure to call an election, wouldn’t they?
I’d expect voters to get a say within a year maximum, so June 2009 would probably be the day?
A quick note before I disappear to do some work.
As readers of my blog will know (go on, click on my name) - today (4th May) is the day that in 1979 James Callaghan resigned as PM.
Callaghan was the last Labour PM not to have won a General Election.
P.S. From hereon I’d like to be known as Julian “Soothsayer” H
129 Thanks Henry
127 The Tories need to squeeze the Lib Dems - parachuted in a candidate, not local, can’t win here, if you want to send a message to Gordon then voting Timpson is the only way. Difficult to attack Tamsin so don’t; make it a referendum on Brown; subliminally message must be Tamsin isn’t Gwenneth, she might have the name but she will not be in the arkward squad, Brown will take a vote for Labour as a vote for the same policies.
That was a dismal performance from Brown on Marr. Ignoring questions; especially from his pet interviewer, and spinning, lying, and gurning his way through it will not convince his rapidly dwindling band of supporters that he is capable of leading them out of their current travails.
Those hundred or so Labour MPs who face being tipped off the gravy train at the next GE should be out looking for alternative employment this week.
116.The loss of Crewe and Nantwich for Labour is laready factored in.That is why they want to get it over so quickly.
And one by election defeat will make no difference to Browns survival-pepeole are getting carried away.
A third place for Labour will not be a killer either.Frankly I think that outcome is unlikley.If the Lib dem candidate is not local that will not help.
So Crewwe is l;ikley to be more good news for Cameron,but not terminal fro gordon.
The more interesting by election is Henley.How long can Boris be a part time mayor and part time MP?
The longer the better from the point of view of Lib bem upset.Remember that Boris has built up a strong personal vote which is at risk,The Lib dems are clearly second with a large labour vote to squeeze.It wont be easy but a strong local candidate and a long run at it could give the Lib Dems a chance of by election success
rogerh
119. How long did it take the committee to come up with that post?
If Labour can put up a Dunwoody in C&N, why not Stanley Johnson in Henley?
128. But this is it.
He failed to answer the questions put to him - but he’s a politician so we expect that.
He offered vacuous banalities (’travel the country listening to the people’) - but he’s a politician so we expect that.
Unfortunately, his good mate Tony was very good at doing thisand coming across as a nice bloke, which redeemed him. What is Gordon’s redeeming feature?
He’d like it to be policy, but on the back of the 10p fiasco, and with 42 days to come he’s stuffed that up as well.
70 Jack. Is early voting good for Obama? Earlier this week, judging from the tracking polls Clinton had surged dramatically and Obama fell back equally dramatically. Over the past 48 hours a reverse trend has been happening and Obama is coming back up.
Early voting at the peak of the Clinton surge could be beneficial to her.
Obama to win North Carolina but because of this early voting the final margin may be smaller than the current 9-10%, it is all very fluid, and it only wants Wright to reappear on Monday……
Indiana, again there was apparently heavy early voting in the Obama strongholds, but at the peak of the Clinton surge, were they Obamaites at that time?
Zogby seems out of step with other Indiana polls, but he was sound on the late Pennsylvannia surge to Clinton and got it right. So he is indicating Obama ahead with lots of undeceideds, may be right. I have a feeling that endorsements from ex Democratic party Chairs etc, calling for the party to unite behind Obama may be having a stabilizing effect, but again these may have come too late for the many who voted early in that immediate post Wright Clinton surge.
128 Ted/others. Most punters prefer the Marr type of interview. Us anoraks like the red meat of Paxman.
Conservative would do well to remember that this game has upto two years left to play. We recall that before last years Tory conference there were plenty of squeeky Conservative bottoms dreading an election, including Cameron.
Much may still change, a different Labour PM, the economic cliamte, the media narrative and so forth.
The betting opportunities are endless.
You have to hand it to Labour, the selection of Dunwoody’s daughter is an utter stroke of genius for the by-election.
However, in the long term I do worry that Labour is increasingly dominated by a small number of family dynasties.
119: Jack, ‘good for Gordon’ is not good enough for what should have been the start of a comeback and in front of a sycophantic interviewer.