The gambling lessons of Boris vs Ken
May 4th, 2008
There’s a piece by me on the Guardian’s Comment is Free about the polling and betting on the mayoral election.
Mike Smithson
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There’s a piece by me on the Guardian’s Comment is Free about the polling and betting on the mayoral election.
Mike Smithson
Has Peter Kellner received a personal apology from Sir Frightful Shyte yet?
From previous thread.
Eight months before the 1970 election, on a 13% swing the Tories took a “railway town” constituency that they had not held sice 1935…
They also nearly took Newcastle-under-Lyme (which adjoins Crewe and Nantwich) on an 11% swing…
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/swindon.png
Useful benchmark to judge Cameron by?
Apologies for O/T so qwik :
Latest Rasmussen Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 44% .. Clinton 46%
McCain 47% .. Obama 44%
Clinton 45% .. Obama 45%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
2 yes a 13% swing in C&N would indicate perhaps a 1970 GE outcome………
re 2. It will show if there are on the right lines - or heading for the buffers.
There’s a piece by me on the Guardian’s Comment is Free about the polling and betting on the mayoral election.
so what?
2.
If the LD’s don’t win will Clegg be finished?
6. Sorry that was for 5.
7 no he’s there till the next GE, they will get 40 seats max and then its new leader tim!!!
er time!!!
5. A 13% swing would be a good platform to build upon. It would demostrate that the Tories level of support is not stationary and would signal their express wish to steam to a GE victory.
You can embank on it!
I think, perhaps more important than what we’ve learned about the pollsters is what we’ve learned about the lack of honour and outright misrepresentations of those whose professional job it is to report and interpret on those pollsters.
In especial, some of the Guardian commentariat have turned into grotesques, knowingly attempting to smear and destroy the good name of a independent pollster for desparate short-term political gain. The lesson to be learned from the election is that you can trust YouGov, you can’t trust the Guardian.
11 I think a few in the Guardian will be wondering how they became so feverish and ill-advised over the election. Partially perhaps an attempt to as they thought balance the Evening Standard but it was supermarket tabloid standard journalism in G2 and in the comment pieces, not even reaching the standards of the Mirror.
11. Martin Coxall. Agreed.
As for the pollsters themselves, it is impressive that Mori have so promptly demonstrated a desire to review their own methodology. They should also review the way they framed their voting intention question for London Mayor, as it seemed to favour the incumbent.
Good article in comment is free and well done on winning so much money Mike.
I am amused by Gordon Brown trying to steady his ship. My take on that is here:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2008/05/captain-of-titanic-reassures-crew.html
Though it is nice to hear Gordon admit that he should have killed off election speculation earlier.
What is dispiriting is that, as the results for the mayoral were actually coming in, someone was on here saying that they were busy backing Livingstone. If people don’t know that the writing is on the wall and ignore any suggestions that they get out quick then what can you do?
I know there is blind faith but backing someone when the votes are actually visible is taking it too far.
OT From Rod Crosby last thread ” The Tories do have a mountain to climb” . Yes true Rod, statistacally speaking, but they are not far from the summit (base camp just below the summit), and the political weather map is favourable to the Tories for at least 12 months and probably thro to 2010, and Labour havent got the money to send an expedition to try and get there first….
Re 15, UKPaul, “I know there is blind faith but backing someone when the votes are actually visible is taking it too far.”
I think elephant man was nothing but a passing troll.
11 Martin Coxall did you see the Boris speech link I posted? if not here it is again
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7381585.stm
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/party_affiliation/partisan_trends
A couple of points from Rasmussen today:
1. Democrats don’t seem to be damaged by the primary. The Democrats have their biggest lead over the GOP in terms of party affiliation for the 6 years Rasmussen have been measuring it. Currently Dem 41.4, GOP 31.4. To compare the Democrats had a 6.1 edge in Nov 2006 and a 1.6 advantage in Nov 2004.
2. Favourability ratings. Admittedly a peak for Clinton but the figures show all 3 candidates have similar ratings:
McCain 52/46
Obama 50/48
Clinton 48/50
That should worry McCain supporters. He has had a virtual free ride for the last few months whereas both Clinton and Obama have been heavily attacked. Both Obama and Clinton are showing resilience in withstanding things like Wright and snipergate.
If the p[oints raised by Rod @2 are a good benchmark, how does Darlington fit into that?
Iain Dale is reporting he noticed Sky cutting Gordon off mid sentence this morning and going to adverts. I was struck [burst out laughing] at the same thing. Respect? Err no.
YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!
Smith!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Arsenal 1 Everton 0.
New life to the European hops.
12 The Guardian got a bit of stick in the Inde today about their Boris frenzy.
Actually what should really sober them up is their obvious inability to affect the outcome.
22 stjohn. Belgium beer !! Yuk !!
23 - Well with Rentoul’s piece of cack that’s a bit pot and kettle.
If Boris continues his seriousness and does a good job he’ll be difficult to stop as a future Tory leader.
That’s a sentence that I could never have envisaged writing.
Any idea when we get the Mayoral competition results?
22. Jack W. I don’t know enough about European beers to construct a pithy pun in response.
Where is Stonch when you need him?
24 - Belgian beer is wonderful! In fact, the only thing going for the whole country is chocolate and beer.
Actually, that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
Boris for PM! Better Boris than George Osbourne.
After Cameron has served his second term.
How does a NuLabour Minister define “Being jeered ”
Teachers at a conference have jeered a minister after she talked about league tables and tests in schools.
The flashpoint involved Children’s Minister Beverley Hughes at the National Association of Head Teachers (NAHT) conference, in Liverpool.
During a question-and-answer session, she said teaching was a great job, but was jeered again by a large proportion of the teachers in the hall.
Ms Hughes denied being jeered but said “there will be differences of views”.
This should go right to the top and if she is found to be lying should be sacked by Gord”Ditherer”Brown.
Here is a chnce to be decisive Gord,wield the axe!!!!
The country demand a decisive P.M.
What would the mad hatter Polly do then?
20. Darlington was while Labour was in opposition. The minuscule swing to Labour (1.3%) was treated as a victory, but was in reality a herald of the landslide they would be buried under just 11 weeks later…
My model indicates that a 4% swing to the Opposition is the break-even point, else they will go backwards at the subsequent GE.
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/byelections.jpg
31 - Jeered is a long word for a Labour education mininster to understand.
People are only classed as illiterate under new guidelines if they fail to understand words such as ‘evil’ and ‘Tories’
Oops
My lesson would be to look out for the last-minute value that some bookies may offer. I had little riding on the actual Mayoral election (a bit of Boris at 2/1 when he first announced, laid off) but piled in to the 7/4 turnout bet PfP pointed out and Mike highlighted, making ten times as much on that as I did on BoJo.
The betting lessons- remove all sentiment, and then bet for what most commentators think to be the most likely happen, and bet hard
This is a proven formula and will win you a great deal of money.
33. Do you agree with this from the Guardian “Another worrying trend for Labour is that voters seem happy to side with whichever party looks best placed to beat it — indicating tactical voting of the type that cost the Tories so dear in 1997. In northern constituencies such as Newcastle East and Derby North, where the Liberal Democrats are running second, our analysis shows voters have rallied to them. By contrast, in southern seats, where the Conservatives are stronger, such as Plymouth Moor View and Southampton Itchen, the Liberal Democrats have been squeezed as voters have rallied to the Conservatives. Before this week’s elections some within Labour were warning about southern discomfort. But in the event, the discomfort has arrived in the north and the south alike. “
37 - It’s their own tactical voting message coming back to bite them on the bum.
Reap what you sow.
36. Tyson. Did you follow your own advice?
WATFORD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hull next - easy!!!!!!!!!!!!
Or Bristol City - easy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
23. So if you take that point further it means you think Boris could PM one day…hmmmm…
28 - “Belgian beer is wonderful! In fact, the only thing going for the whole country is chocolate and beer.”
Had a lovely trip to Belgium recently. I don’t really like chocolate, but the beer is wonderful. As are the chips and the paintings.
37. Do you have a link?
40 WATFORD!!!!!!!!!!
Council - Lib Dem - easy!!!!!!!!!
Mayor - Lib Dem - easy!!!!!!!!!!!
MP - Next - Lib Dem - easy!!!!!!!
Poetic Justice for Ave it - easy!!!!!!!!
44 hehe LDs will not win watford MP i’ve told you before!
Ave it feels 105
40 I think you’ll find the super soaraway Eagles waiting to peck your eyeballs out in the final !
‘Ave that !
43 Go to their website. It is by Nicholas Allen in Local Elections section
40. Are those Con GAINs?
15. Paul I’m not convinced he was backing anything. Maybe he was but it didnt look right. He seemed to be running a bet very 5 minutes or something.
You could say it was bravura performance of leftist resistance against the rightist hordes on pb.com, as I am sure he’d like to see it,..except that it wasn’t.
19. McCain could never be considered favorite for the big race. Two terms of Bush for a start….
46 LOL Palace to lose on penalties v Bristol city - warnock will love that!
Hull know they have blown it - not big enough to make the dream - will lose in SF v Watford!!
(Glad we’re not playing Palace in the SF TEE HEE)
48 think you’ll find they are!
Johnson and Primarolo BYE BYE!!!!!!!!
N1 west brom - Alan where are you?
Stoke: three seasons: Autumn, Winter, spring hehe
17 points last time 84/85 on 42 games hahahahaha
I was amased that the Tories picked up 3 seats in Rotherham! This is a leftwing place due to heavy industry and mining!
39- stjohn- sort of- I hedged and laid a bit when the price tightened but on the whole had still quite a bit of exposure on Boris. Could have won more, but did OK. All against what I wanted to happen.
After being reasonably measured though, I did bet quite heavily after seeing sight of Jack’s ARSE.
53- Martin- Labour picked up 4 seats in Oxford. Some quirky results.
54 Tyson. I hope accordingly you’ve made a donation to Mike Smithson Restoration Fund !!
55. I thought the LD’s were well entrenched in Oxford!
But Rotherham is part of the Sheffield conurbation! Whilst not on sheffield city council it is an amasing thing to see, think the wards are all in the rother valley seat- the local TV said that the tories would have won the seat in a GE election! Amazing, the Tories winning a Rotherham house of commons seat!
55 few gains for Labour but its all pointing out to clear victory for Camo next time!
Evan Harris looking forward to packing his bags in Oxford W
And Andrew Smith (is he still there) in Oxford E!!
Labour = Hull TEE HEE
58. Labour are doomed!
19/49- if you take the view that it is next to impossible for McCain to win (like I am)- then great value on Obama, and to lesser extent Hillary.
As soon as any one of the democrats secures the nomination their price will narrow to 3/5.
Worth backing Obama and hedging Hillary
Is Gordon Brown actually prepared to risk the very existence of the United Kingdom in a last ditch attempt to save his own political skin? The entire British Establishment, from Whitehall to the monarchy to MI6 is going to start panicking now. This is clearly his King George III period. His end is nigh…
“LABOUR is on the verge of calling the SNP’s bluff over a public vote on independence.
Gordon Brown and Wendy Alexander are both considering giving Labour’s support to a referendum on Scotland’s future in the Union.
Both the Prime Minister and Scottish Labour leader Alexander have consulted colleagues on the issue.
One insider said: “We should call Salmond’s bluff… Labour refusing to support a public vote looks as if we are still sore from losing the Scottish elections.”
Another senior Labour source said: “This should have happened six months ago. Salmond’s popularity is rising, as is support for independence. From the start, we should have let people vote on the issue, while warning about the pitfalls of independence.”
Labour fears that rising SNP support will cost many MPs and MSPs their seats. Salmond’s recent boast that the SNP’s share of Westminster seats could soar from six to 20 is being taken seriously.
But backing a referendum is a huge gamble. Former Defence Secretary George Robertson predicted more than a decade ago that “devolution would kill separatism stone dead”.
A study of seven opinion polls shows support for separatism has gone up from 27 per cent last May to 41 per cent last month. And on Friday a poll of more than 600 businessmen and women found 39 per cent were now more in favour of independence than 12 months ago.”
Strathclyde University professor James Mitchell said:
“It seems very odd that they would put the Union at risk in pursuit of simply trying to do down the SNP - it is like using a sledgehammer to crack a nut.
There must surely be other ways Labour can find to combat the SNP in government. This speaks more of the frustration within Labour rather than any strategic thinking.”
http://www.sundaymail.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2008/05/04/brown-to-call-snp-bluff-over-independence-vote-78057-20404186/
58 - it would be odd if Evan lost OxWAb but Steve Goddard won in OxE.
61 - Stuart, somebody mentioned here last week a new poll showing a drop in the support for indendence. Don’t know the details,or accuracy of this; do you? Any comments?
57-Martin- Labour are the largest party now on the council.
58-Ave it- very impressed by your knowledge of Oxford MP’s. Andrew Smith is very much here. Sound bloke
56- JackW- am normally a bit risk averse when betting- go a little, hedge a little. But the sight of your ARSE on Thursday made me lose all inhibitions.
61, hmm.
I think devolution, in it’s lopsided, anti-English model, was a great mistake (and electorally unnecessary for New Labour).
If they lost a referendum on it, Brown could be remembered as the Anti-Churchill, losing the United Kingdom despite all being in his favour.
But with Brown being perhaps considered the face of unionism as PM, who knows?
61.
65. It would be a great day for England to see Scotland go its own way!
64 TY Tyson - remember I know everything!
So all of you know that I am the one to follow on here with my analysis/projections!!!! *
* no inducement to risk money or anything else on what i say intended or implied
67 hear hear.
Time for them to ……. (I don’t like swearing)
“ALEX Salmond will this week take the first steps in an audacious bid to seize control of North Sea oil from Westminster.
It is estimated North Sea oil will be worth around £56billion to the UK economy over the next six years.”
http://www.express.co.uk/scottish
64 Tyson. You’re not the first and likely not be the last to lose all inhibitions at the sight of Jack W’s ARSE.
Maybe Andrew Smith could challange Brown for the leadership, Smith had been in cabinet along time had he not? Smith has got nothing to lose as he will be out at the next election if Brown stays anyway!
67, it would be a bad day for the United Kingdom.
I have to say that my own patriotism (to the UK) has waned somewhat since the anti-English devolution has effectively disenfranchised me as a voter compared to a Scot, or a Welshman (though to a lesser degree).
However given the choice I want the UK to continue on.
70 can’t we lock up Alex Salmond?!
72 Martin - if we dont win Oxford E it might be good news for Smith to keep it!!!
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/oxfordeast
70. That’s less than £10 billion a year! Bet Scotland get more than that in public spending a year in the union! Ungrateful freeloaders!!! Plus they contaminate UK politics with lefties! This could be a great opportunity for England to become a Tory Vs. Labour country and Labour will be left to sink with Scotland on their own!
63. SBS
I commented on it at the time. It was a YouGov/Daily Telegraph poll. Here were the relevant posts from 1 May 2008:
Not only has the Daily Telegraph commissioned a big survey of Scottish voting intention and attitudes (thank you DT!), but they have actually allowed YouGov to publish the full data sheets on the same day as the newspaper article is published, ie. today (an even bigger thank you DT!!)
It makes rather unpleasant reading for Gordon Brown and Wendy Alexander (triple thank yous DT!!!)… and is none too pleasant for Nick Clegg or Nicol Stephen either…
YouGov/Daily Telegraph
Sample size: 1176
Fieldwork: 24-28 April 2008
Westminster voting intention
(% change UK GE 2005)
1. Lab 34% (-5%)
2. SNP 30% (+12%)
3. Con 17% (+1%)
4. LD 14% (-11%)
oth 7%
(Note: that “Others” figure looks far too big. Greens? BNP? UKIP? recovering far-left?)
Electoral Calculus (Martin Baxter) Westminster seat claculator:
1. Lab 37 seats (-3 seats)
2. LD 10 seats (-1)
3. SNP 9 seats (+3)
4. Con 2 seats (+1)
5. Speaker 1 seat (n/c)
Holyrood voting intention - Constituencies (FPTP)
(% change Scottish GE 2007)
1. SNP 36% (+3%)
2. Lab 31% (-1%)
3. LD 15% (-1%)
4. Con 13% (-4%)
oth 4%
Holyrood voting intention - Regions (PR-AMS)
(% change Scottish GE 2007)
1. SNP 37% (+6%)
2. Lab 28% (-1%)
3= Con 13% (-1%)
3= LD 13% (+2%)
oth 9%
Scotland Votes (Weber Shandwick) seat calculator:
1. SNP 50 seats (+3 seats)
2. Lab 43 seats (-3)
3. LD 16 seats (n/c)
4. Con 15 seats (-2)
5. Grn 4 seats (+2)
6. Ind 1 seat (n/c)
Pro-independence parties = 55 seats (50+4+1)
Unionist parties = 74 seats (43+16+15)
(65 seats are needed to form a majority government)
http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/results%2008%2004%2028%20scotland.pdf
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/scotland/1912478/Support-for-Scottish-independence-slumps.html
75 LOLOLOLOLOL I thought it was £10bn a month!!!
And its english expertise which gets the oil out!
74. Not so sure, Tatchell seems to be bringing up the rear in that seat! He might surprise Smith in one great move forward!
75. Sorry England to become a Tory Vs. Liberal Democrat….
SBS cont.
pb.com regular “test” then asked me:
“Stuart you must be gutted by the slumping support for independence amongst Scots? What is the snp plan when scots themselves reject it? Serious question.”
… and I replied:
Test, I will be an extraordinarily happy man if Scots are ever even asked the bloomin question in the first place!! Let alone whether they end up saying ‘Yes’ or ‘No’.
In that respect this YouGov poll is absolutely wonderful for the Scottish National Party, because it lulls (or more accurately “hopefully lulls”) our Unionist opponents into a false sense of security: they will be increasingly tempted to “call the SNP’s bluff” and support a Scottish independence referendum. IMHO they would be absolutely nuts to do so, but if we get a few more polls purporting (utterly bogusly IMHO) to show support for independence to be below the 20% mark, then the siren voices within all 3 Unionist parties calling for a Scottish independence referendum to be held will grow much, much stronger. Oh happy days!!
Test, what you must understand is that it is one step at a time on the road to re-born Scottish sovereignty. Rigged poll questions are neither here nor there, in the big picture. We in the SNP are very, very firmly focussed on 2 very concrete goals at the moment:
1. Winning the Euros next year, and winning them good
2. Getting the Scottish independence referendum 2010 Bill through parliament
In terms of those 2 goals, todays YG/DT poll could hardly conceivably be better for us! The DT may think that they were being ‘clever’ with the way they worded those questions. Indeed: too ‘clever’ by half
(Hope that answers your query SBS. Sorry to cut & paste, but what is the point in answering the same queries in lots of different ways?)
63 some of the info - you will find it on the Yougov website- some of the other questions rather negative according to some of those on the Herald and Scotsman news forums.
Nunbers are %
Regional Voting Intention
[Scottish National Party 37
Labour 28
Liberal Democrat 13
Conservative 13
Other 9
Taking everything into account do you approve or disapprove of the Scottish
Executive’s record to date?
Approve 52
Disapprove 27
Don’t know 21
Which of the following do you think would make the best Scottish First Minister?
Alex Salmond 43
Wendy Alexander 11
Annabel Goldie 9
Nicol Stephen 5
Don’t know 31
The experience so far suggests that Scotland’s Executive has been able to operate
effectively with the powers it has: it can have the best of both worlds by remaining part
of the UK 58
The experience so far suggests that Scotland is perfectly capable of governing itself and
no longer needs to remain part of the UK: it ought in due course to become formally
independent 29
Not sure 14
SBS
The full exchanges were on this thread:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/01/the-money-piles-on-boris/#comments
78 yes they are going to love tatchell on the cowley estate!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
80. I would like Scotland to go it’s own way - the Scot’s can have most of the oil as well! Some of it is in Englands waters! Plus we can relocate defence and other government bodies from scotland back into england!
Scotland would not last 5 minutes on their own financially and you know it!
Oil would not keep you afloat financially and you know it!
83. Maybe Tatchell will get Robert Mugabe to help him!
Oil floats but Scotland won’t!!!!!!!!!!!!!
84, not to mention the fact that it was British taxpayers’ money that built them. Would we be reimbursed?
“SCOTTISH TV audiences are poorly informed and have a skewed perspective on events in their own country because of a failure by the national BBC news programmes to provide coverage of events outside England.
The verdict, a key finding of a major report commissioned by the BBC Trust, is said to have senior BBC figures “quaking in their boots”.”
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2246202.0.bbc_leaves_scots_poorly_informed.php
61. I think its putting the Union even more at risk by not having a vote, in the same way the EU is sowing the seeds of its own destruction by not giving the people a chance to voice their frustrations.
I would also like to pick up on the idea that rich educated whites aren’t swing voters in the US. Bill Clinton won both of his elections by picking up suburban Republicans.
87. I would hope so, Brown really is the problem - the SNP could be taken apart if their was a non-scottish PM. Salmond is not such a good politician either and as i have said before: An SNP cllr told me of an MODERATED
Thanks Stuart.
88. Maybe its the fact that Scotland is a cultural and economic backwater and nobody in England gives a shit about it!
88, piffle. The BBC barely broadcasts events beyond London or the Wash, never mind England.
Last year we had torrential flooding in Yorkshire. The moment Gloucestshire got the same there was barely a hint of TV coverage of ‘the North’.
The BBC is, as Greg Dyke said, institutionally South of England.
How sweet! It is always nice when the SNP wins over a new fan
“Scottish Conservative leader Annabel Goldie said that in Scotland Labour were still in denial about the SNP.
“Until very recently they’ve been telling themselves it won’t last — it is a blip, a temporary problem, an unpleasant dream they’ll wake up from.
“Yet, nearly 12 months on from that historic day, the SNP have actually increased their lead in the opinion polls and the Labour Party are in utter disarray.
“Labour are in meltdown, total disarray, and it’s this fact more than any other that has contributed to the currently handsome nationalist advantage.””
http://www.dcthomson.co.uk/MAGS/POST/postindex.htm
Stuart some of the comments above, directed to you remind me of the quotation:
sans peur et sans espoir
I have to say canvassing today was quite enjoyable
94. right link:
http://www.dcthomson.co.uk/MAGS/POST/news2.htm
90 - I THINK THIS POST SHOULD BE REMOVED FOR LEGAL REASONS.
94. Don’t get me wrong i like Alex Salmond but the realighty of what the SNP stand for does not bear upto economic scrutiny! Scotland is dependent on England end of………
Blacks will stay home if Obama is denied the nomination:
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/politics/5751006.html
In other news, Bin Laden doesn’t like America.
97. I said alleged!
95.
Marcia: you are a total star!!
All strength to your arm. I am actually one of those strange souls who loves canvassing, even when the going is very rough, as it has often been during my long membership of the party. But nothing wins over the voters better than long-term commitment on the ground. They respect us for it.
100 - “I said alleged” - so did the New Stateman when John Major sued it and had it closed down.
93 - I’m hoping the move to Salford by the Beeb enables me to go home to the North. Most of the frappacino drinking self-abusers currently employed will leave. A BBC based more evenly around the country will hopefully be less dismally southern England biased.
This is a crucial stage of a three stage argumnent she needs to win to get superdelegates to change their minds:
“If the superdelegates should decide to take the risk and cast their lot with Clinton, how would she be able to heal the wounds of a fight to the finish with Obama?
The Clinton camp’s answer comes in two parts. First, they say that the institutional party — the unions, the environmental groups, the abortion-rights groups and others who are desperate for victory after losing twice to George Bush and who recognize the potential appeal of John McCain — would exert heavy pressure on the losing side not to sulk or erupt.
And second, the Clinton camp hopes that, if he is counted out, Obama, just 46, would think about his long-term future and secure his own status as heir apparent by reconciling his followers to a bitter but temporary defeat and by throwing all his energies behind Clinton.”
101 - having done now four decades of canvassing I know what you mean. Times have changed from when I started we had only a few councillors dotted about the country and no parliamentary representation.
O/T25 Stuart from previous thread, you’ve hit the nail on the head again. Bang on.
I read some of your posts in a previous thread about the SNP getting worried about a resurgent Tory Party in Scotland. As a fellow Nat albeit with red and white St George colours I don’t think the SNP should lose any sleep if the Scots Tories win up to a 10/11 or so seats in the next GE because they will be have no true mandate in Scotland anyway. Every nation state has a left and a right even if Scotland is more left leaning than England by culture.
Here in England, many Tory voters (about 50-55%) support English independence but voted Tory, and their resurgence has greatly affected the EDP vote - the Tories are playing unionism but with an English Grand Committee as a means of solving the WLQ. It won’t work because an English Parliament within a UK will follow by default, and the experiences of Scotland show that devolution is the first step towards independence as evidenced by last year’s SNP Holyrood victory. The EDP are pursuing the English Parliament idea first because it is unlikely independence will be achieved in one stage. I am very pleased that the EDP are working closely with the SNP to achieve the final goal of independence for each home nation. The Tories will never deliver independence, only the combined works of the EDP and SNP will achieve this.
I will send this book on to Gord who should read as well as listen!!!!
There are lessons to be learned in this book especially how to reduce Income Tax!!!!
The Bumper Book of Government Waste 2008
It’s back and, depressingly, the figure is even bigger than last time.
Welcome again to the world of waste. In this new edition of The Bumper Book, Matthew Elliott and Lee Rotherham have unearthed a staggering £101 billion of government misspending - all paid for by you, the taxpayer.
It’s such an enormous figure it is difficult to get one’s head around it. What could be done with £101 billion? Well, you could for example, paper the entire East Midlands and London with £5 notes, and still have a few billion left over to build one hell of a crane from which to admire your handiwork. Or even convert the £101 billion into one penny coins, pile them on top of each other, and reach the moon and back five times.
But perhaps more usefully, the government could cut the tax burden of every household by over £4,000 a year.
Mind blowing isn’t it?
Here are just a few examples of where all of that money has gone:
£280,000 on a conference addressed by Blair and Brown on value for money in the public services.
£400 million on ‘cost control’ for the Olympic Games.
£3 million by tax inspectors at HM Revenue and Customs on flights, including £2.1 million on flights to Scotland.
Over £16 million on the creation and upkeep of VIP lounges in Heathrow and Gatwick despite the fact they are not government-owned.
£100,000 on assessing whether £400,000 reportedly spent on modern art for seven hospitals was money well spent.
But then it’s hardly a surprise that they don’t have a tight grip on our finances when you see an official statistic from the government, claiming that an impressive 102% of all 3 year olds are in nursery school. With this level of numeracy, no wonder we’re in trouble!
If you’re a British taxpayer, you need to read this book - even though it will hurt.
107 incredible isnt it.
What a waste of money labour is!!!
84. There’s no structural reason why Scotland would be any less economically successful than Ireland, which has few natural resources, largely unfarmable land, similar weather and the same sized population. The only thing that would hold Scotland back is an interventionist, high-tax mindset.
106. I would say a Conservative resurgence in Scotland would be good news for the SNP, as there is a natural tendency for any system to evolve towards one main party on the right and one on the left. At current Scotland doesn’t have one on the right, and should one emerge while the SNP are the biggest party on the left, Labour could become highly marginalised.
102. Fair enough!
57-Didn’t the Tories come close in one of the Rotherham or Doncaster seats in 1983?
On-topic, here’s my main gambling lesson of these elections:
Ignore people claiming that the Lib Dems will be subjected to a third-party squeeze at the next GE, due to the close race between Labour and the Tories.
Several prominent posters on here have suggested that the Lib Dems should focus on defending what they have at the next election, and put less energy into target seats. The idea being that voters will want to go for one of the big two when the race is exciting or close. However what we’ve seen this week blows that out of the water.
If the UK was one big constituency, then it might hold some weight, for example Brian Paddick’s unimpressive vote total (despite the second preference voting system which should have saved him from this squeeze.) But looking at the councils up and down the country, the Lib Dems are still making progress despite the Tories’ strong performance; often at their expense when the local area has been worked well.
In Tory/Lab marginals, the LDs may well be squeezed - but these are generally not target seats! In Tory/LD marginals, Labour supporters may be more ready to vote LD tactically, if they are worried about the Tories having enough seats to form a Government, and vice versa.
So I come out of these elections confident and encouraged - although it does look as if Cameron is heading to Downing Street (and I can live with that given the alternatives) I don’t see the LD slip-back that the doomsayers have been prophesying.
111 Doncaster C
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doncaster_Central_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1980s
107
I suspect ONE of the reasons Cameron?Osbourne appear polict lite is becasue they could address some of those issues headon and rather brutally.
What price the Guardian’s existence if the Government negotiated an advertising deal with the Daily Telegraph and stopped using the Gaurdian for job adverts?
About 4 days I reckon.
Hence the Guardian’s desperation imo.
They KNOW they will have their advertising revenue cut by 75% when labour lose…
Could not happen to a nastier bunch of journalists.
I reckon the Government could cut its bill by 50%…
And so on…
109. oh - yes, there are some very succesful Scottish folk! Most of them choose not to live their though!
like that champion of scottish independence Shaun Connery! But i think even more of them would leave if Scotland became independent because of the hike in taxes they would need to keep the status quo. Maybe Scotland does not want nuclear weapons etc but they are still going to need armies and all that and an air force to guard their oil! Otherise who is going to protect them when the Russian Bears fly over!
109 Not sure the comparison with Ireland is completely accurate. Most of the Celtic Tiger story is based on tax competition with other EU states (principally US of course). It is very hard to see Scotland following this model because
1) The major parties in Scotland are pretty statist - no way are they going to slash corporation tax.
2) Even if they did Ireland got there first - there are only so many corporate tax exiles to go around.
3) Ireland is probably going to blow up or calm down anyway as the housing bubble deflates and their role as prime beneficiary of the EU is usurped by Eastern European countries.
112. Yes but in a genral election people are not voting for local councils but national government!
The LD’s should take a leaf out of the tories book and take nothing for granted! Politics is definetly more local than it has been due to LD inflience - that said is it good to send misleading info about second placed parties and bar graphs? I really do think that in a general election the LD seat tally will crumble in some parts of the country in a general election if the Tories put in the work and resources - if they don’t they will lose.
Regarding C&N…
If the party have any sense they will not allow Conservative Future within a 100 mile radius of Crewe. As a technically ‘young Conservative’ who cannot bear the I can only imagine how diasatrous the sloanes from CF in London will be when they pile into the seat. The Facebook groups are already going up. It didn’t work in Ealing.
116.
1) That’s not a structural issue though - I admitted myself the Scottish interventionist mindset could hold them back.
2) A fair point, but tax exiles don’t contribute THAT much to an economy.
3) Also true, but the same would hold for Scotland - if they instituted decent policies they would get a boom for a bit until GDP per capita caught up with the rest, and then growth would slow. But that’s certainly enough for Scotland to be economically viable.
Incidentally, I don’t want Scottish independence. I just think the economic case for Union is a bit dishonest at times.
118. Depends what they are doing!
If they are doing leg work like delivering leaflets etc, they should be encouraged. The canvassing on the other hand is probably better done by regional people because of local accents dialects etc………… I live in the North and sound “as if i come from London” as they say - does not open many doors for you!
Whenever i have helped the Tories in the past i refuse to do canvassing for this reason! 
But since i have been banned by the CCHQ staff due to conflicts in views i don’t voulonter! 
106. francis
Thanks! Although I very much doubt that the Scottish Tories will exceed 5-6 MPs at the next UK GE, and 3-4 looks far more likely (maybe less). You never know though.
I am afraid that I haven’t looked at the EDP policy platform for a couple of years now, but I was pleasantly surprised when I did last look: looked very well reasoned.
I was sorry to see how badly the EDP have performed though in recent elections.
I am a great admirer of Gareth over at the Campaign for an English Parliament News Blog. I haven’t read that blog either for a while, but that Gareth is a wonderful blogger: perhaps one of the very finest political bloggers in the UK over the last 3 years (he lives in Canada now I think, and blogs far less often). Smithson has a wonderful USP, but the CEP News Blog digs up some truly astoundingly good stories! Which is really what blogging is all about: journalism.
http://www.thecep.org.uk/wordpress/blog/
With C&N, the good thing for the Conservatives is that the pressure is off. If the Conservatives lose, they’re no worse off than the party is now - anything can be put down to the increased atypicality of bye-elections. Winning will just increase the sense of momentum. While Brown needs a win just to stem the discontent.
120-I think it’s more a case of corporate tax exiles, ie companies rather than people.
107 - These exercises can show some examples of waste (I’m sure the same would be true of some private firms), but a lot of the examples won’t stand up to scrutiny.
Taking just the ones you quote (which I assume must be particularly egregious).
A conference on value for money in the public sector. Isn’t this a good idea? Getting people to share best practice. If it improves efficiency even by 0.1% it would pay for itself many times.
Tax inspector flights. How much tax evasion did they stop by doing this? Was it more than the cost.
Stodge was making this very point the other day. Sometimes you can hollow out an organisation so much that it becomes inefficient being able to spend on things that improve efficiency.
All parties want to make government more efficient. The conservatives have so far not set out any explanation of how they will do this in a way that doesn’t affect the services people receive.
121
Taken from my blog http://kickingbets.blogspot.com - commenst much appreciated
****** Clinton to be next US Vice President - 20/1 *******
The Democrats are odds on favourites to win the next US Presidential Election. I’m convinced that Obama will be the next Democratic candidate - Clinton is simnply too far beind on normal delegates for the superdelgates (who are currently breaking evenly) to make a difference. The big question is who will Obama pick as Vice Presdienial candidate? The consensus is that the hatred that has grown between Clinton and Obama during the contest makes a Obama/Clinton ‘dream ticket’ impossible. I strongly disagree. This with long memories (or students of history) will remember Kennedy/Johnson.
Clinton’s attacks on Obama has ensured that the nomination race will, at a minimum, go to the end of the Primaries. The doubts that have been raised (by Clinton/McCain) re: Obama’s experience would be assuaged by having Clinton as VP candidate. As the campagn has progressed, the voter ‘bases’ has become increasingly polarised (Clinton has made sure of that). What better way to ensure both groups of Democratic voters vote for you than by having both candiates on the ticket.
I’m convinced that Obama will offer the VP ticket to Clinton - always better to have you ‘enemies’ close to you. Will Clinton accept? If she is offered the VP ticket, I think there will be enormous prerssure from the Democratic Party on her to take it. If she declines the nomination, I don’t think she will be forgiven by the Democratic hierachy (irrespective of the result in 2008). If she accepts the VP nomination, she will either become VP in 2008 (if Obama wins) or have a chance of running in 2012 (if he loses).
I’m having £100 win on Clinton for VP in 2008 at William Hill - single figure prices at other bookies.
This is in addition to the £100 I placed previosuly at 25/1
62 Not really for 1 Evans would be facing a rising Tory Party and Goddard a Labour Party that barely scraped to victory in 2005 and dropping support and 2 the entire Student dominated areas of the City are switches from West to East further helping the Lib Dems. That said it would still be surprising if Evans was prised out unless he really upsets his Constituents, eg I doubt his views on euthanasia impress the elderly voters.
128 for 63.
120. On both sides! I just think the Scots get a good deal out of the union and to go on about oil etc is disengenuis as their is more to it than that. The Scots have a similar ‘chip’ to the welsh in that they go on and on about their nationality! Frankly if they want to run their own economies etc …. why not! We will still be an island etc but living off are own resources - no moaning on either side!
121. Those smiles in a line were an accident.
128. When did you last go to Wales Martin?
“Scottish Labour Party leader Wendy Alexander has called on the Scottish Government to “bring on” a referendum on independence.
Signalling a shift from previous comments, Ms Alexander said the SNP should have the “courage of its convictions”.
First Minister Alex Salmond said those opposed to the independence referendum were beginning to “crack”.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/7383035.stm
126. I cannot do 3 smilies in a row! Been banned from that as well!
My whole life comprises of being banned - banned from pubs, students unions for accidently smashing a toilet with a bar stool etc…etc….. 
129. About 3 months ago! I love it! Not all welsh people go on about their nationality but many do.
You don’t here English people going on about it unless you are in the North and their are asians living locally!
131 LOLOLOLOL!
Try this:
133 aaaaagh! I did them vertically! Maybe some procedures have been brought in to minimise smileys!
130. Great, i might go and canvess for the SNP and Scottish independence!
I know other English who will do the same! Landslide referundum - yes! 
100. I think the latter story is more surprising than the first….
127 - I think it’s pretty unlikely, but not impossible, so 20/1 is probably decent value. It becomes more likely if Hillary out performs in the remaining primaries and leads Obama in the PV excluding MI. This is possible if she keeps his win in NC down to lowe single-figures. I think she would take it if offered, that can be seen from her comments earlier in the campaign.
However there are a lot of arguments against. Obama does not want her on the ticket, her message clashes with his. He would also be wary of bring Bill Clinton into the White House again and the destabilising effect that could have. I suspect a lot of Hillary voters will come round to Obama if the nominee. A VP who appeals to the white working-class probably helps him more as this is his toughest demographic.
The only way I see her on the ticket is if Obama is forced into it. On balance it is likely that he will be strong enough to resist those pressures.
131. I did not smash the toilet but they had nobody else to blame! Plus i was aknown Tory! it was 1997, must have been me!
133.
Nick 
Clegg 
is 
like 
Neil 
Kinnock 
137, Clinton’s latest plan is to look at the remaining SD’s, a big proportion of which represent predominately white working work class communities.
You can see the plan….
139 HA HA HA HA HA HA
136. I take it you haven’t spoken to many African-Americans recently.
137. I think the part of the thought process we often forget is that Obama would want someone who he could actually work with over the next 4/8 years. In the US, winning the election isn’t enough to implement a program like in the UK: it’s a constant battle once in power.
142. I dont think you are an expert on their views either Socrates.
Nice try though.
139. I am worried Neil Kinnock obviously made a big impression on me as a child! I remember as a kid asking my mum if we could move country if Kinnock got in in 1987 because the Russians might Nuclear Bomb us! I thought Kinnock would just defend us with pitch folks and tractors! I obviously did not realise that the pitch folks and tractors could be used at PMQ’s to defent the governments record aka Gordon Brown on Tractor production figures.
I think the real test will be when Brown starts saying “Week after week” or “month after month” or “day after day” and combines the hand manerism that Gordon will truely be John Major!
Maybe Major is Brown’s political role model as Thatcher was Blairs?
I can just imagine Major accepting an invitation to No.10 with that most agreeable Mr Brown!
142 - That was my reference to Bill Clinton, but you’re right. Hillary would be an assertive VP and there would be whispering campaigns against Obama whenever he slipped up. That is why he doesn’t want her. In fact Cheney is a good model for future VPs (not in what he stands for obviously!) In that he has his own agenda, but never undermines the President and has no future political ambitious.
US Election - McCain will fry the opposition!
144. etc. it really is time for the men in white coats…
146.
Yes Obama does have a chip on his shoulder! 
145. Sorry should say pitch forks!
148. Sory meant 144! Mrs Thatcher’s Tory Landslide Majority!
140 - Actually, the biggest proportion left don’t represent anyone. Clinton does do better among those who do not have to answer to the electorate which is where her hope comes from, nobody to turf them out if they support her.
142: “In the US, winning the election isn’t enough to implement a program like in the UK: it’s a constant battle once in power.”
Yes, socrates, once one wins an election in the UK, it’s all plain sailing! Right.
The biggest flaw in unionist arguments to keep the UK together are that most big companies HQs are in London, if not in London then they are in Edinburgh. These big corporations make their money throughout the entire UK not just England or just Scotland. Independence will not affect day to day business transactions. The Royal Bank of Scotland’s HQ will probably always be in Edinburgh, but it will continue making profits from its branches and other owned companies in England. The same is true about say Asda, whose HQ is in England but have plenty of supermarkets in Scotland.
The union is no longer required, let each home nation decide how it wants to be governed. Scotland, like Ireland has a very different culture (and religion) to England and should be given the opportunity to have independence referendum without interference from unionist politicians.
122 Stuart
Thanks for your reply.
The EDP and CEP are moving apart now, although both continue to pursue the English Parliament agenda. The CEP is now non party political, and wishes to preserve the UK. Many CEP members are EDP members, Tory Party members, some Labour some Lib Dem and some Europhile. It has no policy towards EU membership.
The EDP is moving towards English independenc