Double Carpet on Tuesday
May 6th, 2008
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Mayor Competition Results - how did you do?
Congratulations to Andy Cooke, one of pb’s leading analysts and number-crunchers, on a clear victory in the PB London Mayor prediction competition. Andy’s overall score was just 5.07 and he also had the best first preference score of 4.59. Richard Stoneman was runner-up with a score of 6.87 while Dave Hague took third with 7.39. Fourth-placed Jack Peterson on 7.71 had the best final vote predictions, being just 0.12 away from the actual result.
The full results are available to download here:
Now that Boris has his feet firmly under the desk, a final thought - could Ken be the best available Labour candidate to take him on in 2012, or would they be better off with someone new - experience or a fresh face? Might Livingstone still be the only politician of stature to take on Johnson in four years time, or would he simply look well past his sell-by date? Ladbrokes quote Ken at 10/1 for a 2012 win, or there’s Paddick at 200 for the more adventurous.
Crewe & Nantwich - markets now open for business
Punters will probably be itching to place bets after all the excitement of the Mayor and the locals, and the good news is that the markets for what could be the most important by-election in years are now open. Shadsy has flagged up the Ladbrokes market where they go Conservatives 4/5, Labour 7/4 and Lib Dems 4/1. Personally I think the Conservatives will take their first by-election gain since 1982 and so I’ve made the first trade on Betfair (the “tissue” here is as per the Magic Sign prices) with (£20) at 1.8 - for the Tories it’s a case of “if not now, then when?” and I think that Tamsin Dunwoody won’t be enough to keep the seat in the red column. This will be the key betting event for the next fortnight - please use the PB betting links to help keep the site going. (7.45 update - now 4/6, 2/1, 9/2)
Bye Bye Bertie, hello Dmitry
Not one but two countries will have new leaders tomorrow - Bertie Ahern will submit his resignation as Taoiseach to President McAleese this evening, but will continue as caretaker PM until Brian Cowen’s expected election in the Dáil tomorrow afternoon, while Dmitry Medvedev (making, as Morus has rightly pointed out, a major contribution to the shortest ever G8 leadership) will take over at the Kremlin from Putin tomorrow, following his election in March.
Key questions for Russia watchers are to what extent if any Medvedev will differ from his predecessor’s policies, and how Putin’s new role as PM and head of the United Russia party will unfold vis-a-vis the new president. Meanwhile, Berlusconi is waiting in the wings to take over in Italy, although disconcertingly for those used to UK-style swift changes in government, Prodi is still in the post of Presidente.
Olmert facing new criminal probe - will Shas pull the plug on Kadima?
Israel is another country which may soon see a change at the top - the gagging order on the new criminal probe into PM Ehud Olmert will not be lifted before Independence Day, which begins Wednesday night. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni has been mooted as a possible replacement should the Kadima-led 4-party coalition manage to survive Olmert’s departure.
However, even if Ehud Barak’s Labor aren’t keen on early elections, the rest of the government looks shaky - three MKs (MPs) from the Pensioners’ Party Gil jumped ship at the weekend, and and on Monday Shas threatened to quit, following reports of progress in the talks with the Palestinians. Could it be Shas with their spiritual leader Ovadia Yosef who finally bring down the two-year old Kadima-led government, prompting early elections (September has been mooted) and the likely return of Benjamin Netanyahu at the head of a Likud administration?
Coming up on PB - Indiana and North Carolina
There’ll be full coverage of today’s primaries in the Hoosier and Tar Heel states - polls close at 11pm/midnight in Indiana (6pm Eastern/Central) and 12.30 in North Carolina (7.30 Eastern).
Don’t forget to use the betting links to help keep Politicalbetting going:
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After his stupendous performance on HIGNFY (the London Primary) its obvious that Labour should grab Brian Blessed for 2012 before Labour get him.
Another thread about the mayor? I was hoping we could forget about this one. I think I predicted 52-48 in Ken’s favour, so I doubt I’m close to winning.
Congratulations to the winners …… (bast*rds)
ARSE PB EXCLUSIVE **** ARSE PB EXCLUSIVE **** ARSE PB EXCLUSIVE ****
The Breaking Wind news is that ARSE calls the Crewe and Nantwich by election for the
**** CONSERVATIVES *** CONSERVATIVES **** CONSERVATIVES ****
Get on the 4/5 if you can or any odds better than 4/7 !!!!!!!!
2 - this is probably the last London Mayor thread before 2011!
I’ve tried to have £100 on Obama in the -16 handicap for North Carolina but have been restricted to £10. Are low stakes a new policy for Ladbrokes, are am I now subject to ’special treatmnet’.
Anyone else tried to have a decent sized bet on this market?
(I’ll leave Shadsy to answer that one
I think Obama will win by approx 15 points (that is what the Clinton camp (alledgly) believe anyway), so it could be close…. I would definately want to be on the 7/2 rather than 1/7!
Trying to set up a Ladbrokes account, presumably I deposit into “Games”?
7. No, ‘Sports’ is the place to go.
My final prediction:
I posted this in the last thread by mistake after the cut-off so apologies for those who are seeing this for the second time. I have Obama doing well, but not well enough in North Carolina and Hillary ahead in Indiana.
http://tinyurl.com/4tluyr
http://tinyurl.com/6cklh4
With £100 on Hillary in Ladbroke’s North Carolina handicap (at 1.72), I’ve got my fingers crossed!
Well I have put my money where my mouth is by backing the Tories for C&N.
1 meant Labour should grab Blessed before the Lib Dems get him - but I suppose the LDs might have gone off Brians….
Don’t worry one of Boris’s women will be sure to bump him off before 2011!!
9. I still think Clinton’s nomination chances are about 5-10%. There has been more doubt about Obama, but this has been cancelled out by Clinton running out of contests.
I underestimated the combined first round share of Ken and Boris, considerably, but am pleased to see I finished in the top half.
8-Found it , cheers!
I think the lesson that Jeremy Vine must learn from Brian Blessed is that, if you are talking complete rubbish, you must do it with utter confidence and absolute conviction.
13. Scorates, I’m with you on this - Clinton’s chances of the nomination are being heavily overestimated. However, that does been I ‘can’t’ level out on the Democratic nomination and have to stay heavy green on Obama.
I am putting a fair amount on the Lib dem in Cand N - well worth it at these odds - and a little knowledge
Many congrats Andy! Surely the most convincing winner we’ve had in any PB competition - quite amazingly accurate.
No doubt you’ll be making your acceptance sppech later and I for one would love to hear your take on C&N.
The latest Populus poll gives Con 40%, Lab 29%, Lib Dem 19%, Others 12%.
16 - I didn’t haven’t wanted to detract too much form the Vine bashing recently - I liked to see it as sympolic of attacks on the regressive Tv Tax. But i must say - he was simply following the trend started from the Peter Snow days - It was Peter Snow that started it all. But still - the bbc is shit.
‘Alexander makes referendum threat’
- “Unionist parties attacked Ms Alexander’s stance, while Downing Street distanced itself from the plans.”
How to make friends and influence people…..
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/7386258.stm
(reposted from previous thred)
NORTH CAROLINA largest counties
note: the percentages are based on analsysis of voter registration info from NC Secretary of State as of May 3, 2008.
NC Statewide registered voters:
Democrats = 45% of reg, GOP = 33%, Unaffilated = 21%
Whites = 75%, Black = 21%, All other = 4%
note: very few African Americans are registered GOP, thus their share of Democratic reg is much higher.
MECKLENBURG (Charlotte, southernwest Piedmont) 10% of NC Dem reg
WAKE (Raleigh,northeast Piedmont, capital, NC State U) 9%
GUILFORD (Greensboro, northwest Piedmont, NC Ag & Tech State U) 6%
DURHAM (Durham, northeast Piedmont, Durham U, NC Central U) 4%
CUMBERLAND (Fayetteville, central Tidewater, Ft Bragg) 4%
FORSYTH (Winson-Salem, northwest Piedmont, Wake Forest U) 3.5%
BUNCOMBE (Asheville, central Mountains) 3%
ORANGE (Chapel Hill, northeast Piedmont, U of NC) 2%
NEW HANOVER (Wilmington, southeast Tidewater) 2%
ROBESON (Lumberton, southeast Tidewater, Lumbee Indians) 2%
PITT (Greenville, central Tidwater) 2%
GASTON (Gastonia, southwest Piedmont) 2%
20 - I make it
Lab -4
Con +1
LD +2
(reposted from previous thred)
INDIANA - Largest Counties
MARION (Indianapolis, state capital) roughly 17% of Dem vote
LAKE (Gary, northeastern IN) 12%
ST. JOSEPH (South Bend, far northcentral IN, Notre Dame U) 5%
ALLEN (Fort Wayne, northwest IN) 5%
PORTER (Portage, northeastern IN, Valparaiso U) 3%
VANDERBURGH (Evansville, southwestern IN) 3%
MONROE (Bloomington, southcentral IN, Indiana U) 3%
HAMILTON (Indpls northern suburbs) 3%
MADISON (Anderson, central IN) 2%
LAPORTE (Michigan City, northeast IN) 2%
TIPPICANOE (Lafayette, northcentral IN, Purdue U) 2%
DELAWARE (Muncie, eastcentral IN) 2%
VIGO (Terra Haute, westcentral IN, Indiana State U) 2%
ELKHART (Elkhart, far north central IN) 2%
CLARK (Jeffersonville, southeastern IN, Louiville KY suburbs) 2%
A 6 minute ‘live’ segment of the 1956 Democratic Convention during the voting process as broadcast by CBS - it take a little while to buffer.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VO7nyYferUo&feature=related
there are a few other segments including marching bands for the candidates - you can spend hours at this site on Youtube
wow - my first competition entry and I came 5th!, Bring on C&N for Tories:)
21 - do you remember the Beeb in the first Gulf war. Peter Snow had a sandpit. No expense spared!
7. Whatever ya do dont put it into games!
24 Actually, the Conservatives are unchanged from the last Populus, and Labour is down 1%. The details are appalling for Labour. Brown’s own rating is lower than any rating ever achieved by IDS, and the Conservatives are now 10% ahead on economic competence.
On the primaries today:
There’s a lot of crossovers from very conservative Republicans in Indiana. This sounds like Operation Chaos voters supporting Clinton.
Very big turnout in Indiana generally, but especially around Indianapolis - good ground for Obama.
Also staggering turnout in NC, could hit 50% for the Democrats. 85% of registered independents are asking for the Democrat ballot.
22 - it appears to have done down like a lead balloon. I liked Nichola Sturgeon’s comment this morning on GMS where she said she was ‘a bit worried for Wendy with her rather erratic behaviour.’
28. The Ming’s Bling was worse last year!
I really don’t see the problem with the cowboy last week.
It could have been worse!
Measured in numbers of women!
Maybe next year if Clegg lasts that long because i still think Nick Clegg is like Neil Kinnock! 
Or Clegg as a brothel owner and the number of workers in his brothel!
Populus poll vg 4 Cameron!
31. Maybe they just dont like Obama.
28 Peter Snow was a slightly eccentric enthusiastic uncle trying to share his excitement - even with the sandpit - and therefore I was forgiving of his experiments. Vine was just excruciating to watch and an embarrassment.
Realised how much better Peter was watching his cousin Jon doing his Rick Astley impersonation…
36 - isn’t Jeremy Vine’s brother a stand up comedian?
Most LABOUR supporters want Bron to resign.
Tories to take C&N on a 20% swing.
Brown.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7386518.stm
BHAhahhahahhaahahahah!!!!
Will the BBC go to no length to try and undermine the Boris victory?
Maybe the LD’s should condemn the BBC for wasting tax payer money on calculating and publishing irrelevant information?
37. Given the last two years election night performance it may be Jeremy who is the comedian!
40 - Perhaps they just shouldn’t bother counting the first preferences as they obviously don’t count for anything?
Here’s my thoughts on who Labour will be running for the mayoralty in 2012. I’d be a bit surprised if Ken runs again and I reckon we could see a deputy leadership rematch between Cruddas or Harman
http://parburypolitica.wordpress.com/2008/05/03/fightback-for-2012/
“Turning to the downside, British Airways lost 9-3/4 to 254-3/4 after it said it carried 7.9 percent fewer passengers last month than it did in April last year, although cargo tonnages increased.” -ADVFN news desk
All those bags it flew round the world without their owners no doubt!
Amazing only 1 in 12 passengers decided that BA was useless!
New Populus poll on ConservativeHome: Con 40, Lab 29, LD 19
Labour would hold C&N by about 1,000 votes on the Populus figures, if replicated…
27 Visions of Scampi & Chips there for a moment, but unfortunately only the outright winner gets a prize.
Well done anyway Scampi, btw I managed a creditable 13th place.
43. I should think that they will be more bothered about the Labour leadership. Harman would not win against Boris IMO - like most of the bullshit you hear prior to an election i should imagine Boris will be able to run the office of mayor well enough to stand for re-election. Cruddas to the non-political sphere is an unknown.
46 But being a by-election, sadly for Labour, they won’t be replicated.
Has Labour ever scored below 30 on a populous??? Again, populous is one of those more stable, and generous polls to Labour.
How long do you think we will have to wait to find a poll that puts Labour, however fleetingly, behind the libdems???
46, Explain?
Tell me if I’m wrong but if in by-election the Tories replicate 40% thats 11% ahead of Labours 29%.
Ipso facto, Tories win seat?
Maybe you mean the GE?
50. Had one last week!
The Populus poll might at least result in the GE seat markets evening up just a little after the recent hysteria resulting from YouGov.
51 Yokel - your ‘aving a larf - aren’t you?
Some interesting comments on the Dunwoody dynasty in the Crewe Guardian.
http://tinyurl.com/5z5×6e
from 198 previus-I have to agree. I saw Brown on TV and he was wittering on about Third World poverty. Though, no doubt, heartfelt, has he learnt nothing from last week? What happened to his pledge to listen, not that I ever believed it, but I guess some did. To those feeling cheated by the 10p tax fiasco, it’s an example of coughing up more tax so some tin pot Mugabe-lite dictator can buy a few more Mercs.
Ditto, the dust bin tax - just pathetic. Panic should set in when two ministers say different things on the same day.
It all reminds me of a description of a Presbyterian I once read (in a Scottish newspaper): someone who is worried and concerned that someone somewhere may be having fun. Hence Brown’s atempt to correct this by taxing anything he thinks he can get away with. And justifying it as helping the poor, the Third World, climate change, or some other worthy mantra.
54. Us Yokels are simple unsophisticated souls…..
“It all reminds me of a description of a Presbyterian I once read (in a Scottish newspaper): someone who is worried and concerned that someone somewhere may be having fun.”
A Free Presbyterian is someone who objects to fornication on the ground that it might lead to dancing.
48.Cruddas to the non-political sphere is an unknown.
Quite true but he has 4 years and doesn’t come across as a politico. The last time I saw him he was wearing a coat that looked looked like Michael Foots donkey jacket.
20. 29% is the joint lowest number Labour have ever scored with populus. The only other time Labour scored 29% on a Populus poll was April 2007.
Sorry, that should be for 50.
27. Ah well scampi was my doggie who departed this earth last October age 19. I still have the ashes on the dining-room table but no plans to eat!!!
I think this Populous poll doesnt tell us much that we don’t know.
I would like to see polls in a weeks time though.
51. The swing since the last GE, according to Populus is 7%, which would knock 14% of the Labour majority in Crewe. They start with 16.3%, so they’d be left with 2.3% or about 1,000 votes.
It’s not meant to be a serious prediction, but still is a useful feel for the closeness of the likely result…
59. I don’t think Cruddas has the personality to be London Mayor - Look at how the LD was crushed between Boris and Ken. Cruddas is a “Serious” person - not one to endulge in banter etc. He would do better in westminister. Cruddas is only maverick in being to the left of the government, he is not maverick in the sense of Boris or Ken - totally outragious!!!
20,24,30
On Populus you take your choice
17 May sunday mirror Con nil,Lab -1,Lib nil
4 May Times Con +1 Lab -4,Lib +2
Either way the excitement of the locals and london seems to have passed the voters by.No doubt the tories will be dissapointed
Rogerh
test
64. This is what you are after :
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/02/localelections.localgovernment2
Evening all
8th in the Mayor prediction - not bad, but I forgot the Smithsonian law of not punting on sentiment. I completely overdid the LD vote and that cost me - getting the BNP figure to within 0.04% wasn’t bad at all though !!
Re: 2012 Mayoral election - I’ve considered this on my blog - Benedict ought to get himself one - and I think David Lammy could be an interesting Labour candidate. As for the LDs, they have to get someone in place much sooner than Paddick - ideally this autumn.
68. Maybe the LD’s should get John Cleese? He could walk up and down the London boroughs doing silly walks etc!
When i was at university in the mid 90’s the John Cleese silly walks poster was most popular!
66. I think the Tories will be satisfied with this poll. 11% is the largest gap the Conservatives have ever had over Labour in a Populus poll.
68 Pantsdown?
Re: 69 - Don’t worry, Martin. Watching Boris defend his record will be all the comedy the 2012 election will need.
69 Nah! He’s too fond of the Californian sun.
64 - Surely you’re not expecting a GE size turnout?
Any Hoosiers or Tarheels out there, who can give us some reports from Kokomo, Mount Airy & other exotic locales????
71. No he said that Bosinia was his last big job!
I cannot believe in his memoirs the comment that he rushed sex with someone and it took something like 11 seconds! Firstly did he time it? Secondly would you not be ashamed of such a brief encounter? 
New thread - Gordon’s poll misery goes on
59 Mr Foot as wearing a rather expensive Loden coat and it was rather sad the way tabloids misrepresented him on that occasion, as, while he was wrongheaded on so much, there was no doubting his patriotism (as his support to Thatcher over the Falklands showed) nor his respect for the fallen in all conflicts.
Unfortunate that he tended to look dishevelled whatever he wore and the press had it in for him.
John Cleese is the Lib Dems only hope
72. That’s what they said about Arnold Schetznigger in the US. He got re-elected against the Republican rout!
35. Maybe they’re voting for Obama! We just don’t know yet, but I was suggesting what was likely.
78. To true
Some interesting detail from Anthony Wells;
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
The first being that this poll (unusually) was conducted over the bank holiday weekend.
Brown is now rated worse than ANY leader since Populus have been polling. Even worse than IDS or Ming.
Cameron and Osborne have a 10% lead on the economy - Thats quite substantial!
78. On Kierans anology today the General Belgrano was Foot’s and the Labour parties fault!
78. On Kierans anology today the General Belgrano was Foot’s and the Labour parties fault!
69, 73 - just received report that John Cleese was spotted this AM handing out last minute campaign literature to voters heading to the polls in French Lick, Indiana . . .
71 - not a cat in hell’s chance of Ashdown wanting to be mayor of London.
SBS at 37: Tim Vine is a stand up comedian, and he is indeed Jeremy Vine’s brother. You learn something new every day…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Vine
71. I suspect Sarah Teather might be a realistic candidate… or Susan Kramer might want another shot. Both face a tough fight at the next election.
OT
Just a comment on the stark choice between the BBC and Sky.
BBC news 24 entertainment News……. Sky News Live in Kings road where there appear to be gunmen holed up after shoting at the police.
The political coverage is no different. Sky miles ahead…
OH and I dont work for Sky in case anyone asks…