Gordon’s poll misery goes on
May 6th, 2008
Populus reports its biggest ever Tory lead
The May Populus survey for the Times is out this evening and shows a small increase in the Tory lead compared with what the firm reported a fortnight ago. The figures are with changes on that survey - CON 40%(nc): LAB 29%(-1): LD 19%(nc).
So yet another poll is showing the Tories in the 40s with Labour in the 20s. This, I think, is Labour’s worst ever deficit from Populus.
The fieldwork took place from Friday until Sunday so a large number of the interviews would have taken place before Boris’s win in London was made known.
Populus use the now standard model for all telephone pollsters bar MORI of weighting the sample by what people said they did at the last election but their formula is a bit more favourable to Labour than ICM or ComRes. They also apply a turnout filter.
So we have not seen a full post-Boris poll yet. That should come in the next few days.
All this will underpin the move to the Tories on the commons seat spread markets though I do not foresee and big movements there until after he Crewe and Nantwich by election.
Mike Smithson
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I thought ComRes was quite pro-Labour these days?
11% is the Tories largest ever lead with Populus and 29% is the joint lowest score Labour has ever managed (only other time they dropped this low was April 2007)
Some interesting detail from Anthony Wells;
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
The first being that this poll (unusually) was conducted over the bank holiday weekend.
Brown is now rated worse than ANY leader since Populus have been polling. Even worse than IDS or Ming.
Cameron and Osborne have a 10% lead on the economy - Thats quite substantial!
This poll is a nail in the coffin of Brown - If Brown fails to hold C & N then Brown will have more time to write books on obscure subjects!
If Brown had spent more time thinking up what he was going to do as PM and less writing bollocks, to look good (They were for charity) for an autumn election. Brown might be able to impress a more robust leadership.
However, exit polling shows that Gordon Brown is very popular in Terra Haute, Indiana.
That’s the good news for GB. The bad news is that 47% of Hoosier voters polled believe he’s Orville Reddenbacher’s son-in-law.
Mike - I thought you were having a short holiday in Derbyshire’s beautiful Peak District!
re 2. I am generally very wary of non-voting intention questions because they included the views of many who will not vote. It’s for this reason that I generally ignore them or play them down
Who cares what non-voters think about anything?
This poll just continues the trend: Labour is doomed!
re 5. I am and after a wonderful day in the sunshine on the hills I am just about to go to bed knackered. But a new poll……you know me.
6. Well, obviously they come with a health warning, but they still give is a clue as to how people are feeling. For intance, on the leader rating poll, Brown is rated worse than either IDS or Ming. IDS and Ming were both ditched by their respective parties, so that doesn’t bide well for Brown, does it?
Being quite thick here, but what is the point of an opinion poll so close to the council election ?? Surely the whole point of a poll is to found out, slightly inaccurately, what people think when you don’t have the advantage of an election in which millions of people vote.
Since millions voted in the council elections, what is the point of a poll where the figures are going to have an error rate of + or - 3% against a ‘proper’ election which will have almost zero error rate ?
Okay, the ‘notional’ national figure is not completely accurate, but a poll so close to an election does not allow you to extrapolate any trends, so why bother ??
From last night’s David Letterman Late Night Show:
TOP TEN LIST
“Reasons Hillary Clinton Loves America:”
10. “We have more Dakotas than every other country combined.”
9. “Canadian bacon: soggy and chewy; American bacon: crisp and delicious!”
8. “Thanks to the Internet, I can order new pantsuits 24/7. There’s your pantsuit joke, Dave. Are you happy now?”
7. “232 years and not one cookie shortage.”
6. “TiVo.”
5. “Did I mention the soup? Mmm, soup.”
4. “Did you know former President Teddy Roosevelt was an American?”
3. “Where else can you get a car painted for $29.95?”
2. “Is this the part where I say, ‘Live from New York, it’s Saturday Night!’?”
1. “Apparently anyone can get a talk show.”
C&N
Betfair prices are a bit odd. It’s still a bit of a tissue but someone has taken cons at 1.43?????????
BTW, when will you be sharing with us your thoughts on Mr Clegg?
Carrying all those “miserable Gordons” to Derbyshire must have put a strain on your luggage.
13. Nick Clegg is like Neil Kinnock!
10. These are monthly polls and the idea is that they provide a long term record or trend of political opinion. They will still poll even in the month of the general election. ICM/Guardian have a record of polls stratching back every month to the late 80’s, I think?
15. That was for Mike S. We know what you think!
VT @ 10.
2 reasons come tomind:
a) to identify whether the notional national vote share last week approximated reality (as shown by an opinion poll)
b) top further cheer the cockles of the hearts of we Conservatives!
11. I am with her on number 6, best tv related invention ever, beats god awful skyplus……..
‘So we have not seen a full post-Boris poll yet. That should come in the next few days.’
The local election results and Boris’s triumph will have alerted people who hadn’t previously thought about it to just what a disastrous state the government is in. So expect a few more chunks to be hacked off Labour’s percentage. Other than my own radical solution to Labour’s woes (see the link on my name), there seems no way back now from Armageddon. I suppose Labour back benchers could defect en masse to the Lib Dems and form a sort of centre-left coalition. That might work in the sense of its leading to mere permanent opposition rather than complete wipe-out.
18, and if we work on the assumption that the polls mildly over estimate labour support and underestimate both the Cons and Libdems, the Populous poll is pretty much spot on……
12. I know. That’s WAAAAY too short. I am currently laying at anything below 1.5…
I don’t think this is in the bag - yet.
Brown KNOWS the Tories are making the 10p tax the centrepiece of their campaign, which begs two questions for me:
(1) What do the Tories say when potential voters say; “What would YOU do about it?” - I’m sorry, but Camerons answer of “er.. well, we can’t make any promises yet” - simply isn’t good enough. And I say that as a Conservative. He needs to state he ASPIRES to raise the lowest paid out of poverty by gradually raising the income tax threshold to £10K as public finances allow. THAT would be a good answer.
(2) What if Brown totally U-turns on 10p tax with a week to go? What if he announces a 10p tax reprieve for 2 years? Or if he abolishes the move entirely? Don’t rule it out…
Also, entirely unrelated, a saw a man in top hat and tails leading a Tory campaign team procession through Crewe town centre today - WTF?!?!
We have George Osbourne (heir to Wallpaper fortune), Edward Timpson (heir to a Shoe fortune), Cameron (just wealthy) all posh enough as it is.. do we need to ham it up?!?!
I don’t RULE OUT a narrow Tory miss, that’s why I won’t back at less than 1.75.
8 - Peak District is truly lovely, once spent several days at the great hostel at Hartington, highly recommend it!
But Boss, don’t you think that you should be vacationing at either French Lick, IN or Asheville, NC? Both fine resorts . . . and right on top of today’s real action . . .
These US primaries are really messing up my sleep, I’ve just got over the 3.30am for PA, now tonight…
Obama by 11% in NC
Hillary by 4% in IN
22 Agree - they should be making Brown the centrepiece (as they did yesterday) - with taxes on fuel, cars and the 10p being the reasons to kick him.
22 The Conservative answer to the 10p issue is,
Given the choice, the 10p tax band should be retained. Further, when we are in power, we shall replace it with a better, fairer system - the details of which shall follow - we dont want Labour stealing our ideas and making a botch of them
As an expat Scot living in England I personally support Wendy Alexander’s plans for a referendum in Scotland asap. Let’s decide this issue at least for the next ten years. Stuart Dickson will be pleased I am in England as I would vote to stay in the UK, but that’s probably years of living with the enemy - I have gone native
Yet, still, the polls overstate Labour.
20. Stark Dawning. Well at least your mate Tony won’t be looking at another possible role. Sarkozy drops Blair for President…..
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7386891.stm
Possibly a strategy that could become a double-edged sword in that, for example, Clegg voted against the 10p change whilst Cameron - perhaps absent for legitimate reasons - did not. The LDs also made a fuss at the time of the original announcement but the Tories were somewhat ambivalent. Pushing a predominantly single issue campaign can so easily backfire, although I doubt a u-turn from Brown before polling day and doubt further that it would make much difference in any event.
22. The man in the top hat and tails was a Labour spoiler - doncha y’know this is what they get up to these days? On both sides. Labour usually put in a few pious complaints about tories dressing up but have no qualms about doing it themselves.
OT
Just a comment on the stark choice between the BBC and Sky.
BBC news 24 now …entertainment News……. Sky News…. Live in Kings Road where there appear to be gunmen holed up after shoting at the police.
The political coverage is no different. Sky miles ahead…
OH and I dont work for Sky in case anyone asks…
22 - It would cost tens of billions of pounds to raise the tax threshold to £10k. Everyone earning £10k would get a tax cut of c. £900 a year. To pay for it you would have to increase the basic and higher rates.
29. The LDs also made a fuss at the time of the original announcement but the Tories were somewhat ambivalent
Rubbish, thats facutally incorrect. George Osborne issued a press release on budget day (19th March 2007) and hammered Brown over it during the Budget Debate, 10 days later.
Happy to provide the links to both.
32 - Sorry to be clear everyone earning over £10k would get that tax cut. That means people earning £20k, £50k, £200k and £1m would all benefit.
He is like Kinnock isn’t he.
22. Very disappointed in those odds I must say … sigh. Still think they will do it, but it’s not particularly enticing.
30. Is that so?! That would explain it - but he looked very much like part of the “gang” to me!
32. “It would cost tens of billions of pounds to raise the tax threshold to £10k.”
Bothered?
There’s plenty of places to cut waste, the EU, stupid pet spending projects, reform of incapacity benefits, or just run up a laffer curve deficit for a few years, just like Labour did with extra public spending..
£10 billion is nothing.
34 but the tax credits would be largely wiped out.. whats the net effect..
OPERATION IS SWINGING!
Limbaugh Democrats? : http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0508/Limbaugh_Democrats.html
Oh, yeeeaaah!
31. The thing that makes me laugh is whereas you can watch the news paper review on sky active for several hours after the live review. Often BBC do not include it as part of their active reruns. Instead they have this ridculous segment called ‘Oddbox’.
Oddbox sums up News24 quite aptly!
What Lefties dont realise is, the lower your tax rate, the more tax revenue collected.
Lefties are the dimwits who kill the chicken laying golden eggs so they can eat KFC.
32 34
It’s not beyond the wit of amn to slightly lower the upperthresholds.. thus undoing the tax reduction Gordon has given and paying for it..
Of course he will not… he’s struggling to make Tax Credits solve it… which is why the sensible solutions are not going to be carried out.
The man has invented an expencive monsetr which anyone with any sense will destroy when Brown goes. But it’s HIS baby altho it’s illegitimate, costs a lot and make a mess everywhere.
So….
No tax up to £5,435.
Tax from £5,345 to £10,000 at 20%.
Assume 35 million working adults (optimistic) and all earning over £10K a year (optimistic).
Cost is: £32 Billion - discounting natural real wage increases, economic growth and fiscal drag (which would make it much cheaper in reality)
Over two Conservative Parliaments (8 years) I’m sure the public finances could be rearranged so that were possible.If you did it any faster, there’d be a danger of an inflationary bubble anyway.
Perfectly possible.
Its pathetic IMHO. Time to junk all the multi jouros doing the same broadcast for different news and TV channels. that would create the money to do some proper news broadcasting. I used to be BBC thro and thro despite the bias, now its my last port of call. Usually internet first during the day, but always Sky at night(and I dont mean Patrick Moore either!)
OBAMESSIAH
41. We should just cut it down to 0% immediately then!
Yahoo! reports that Madame Tussauds have opened a vote on whether they should bother making a model of Gordon Brown.
Oh dear!
47 - He will proabably lose that election too!
48. Nah, he’ll probably bottle it and not let them hold the vote.
42. I wonder what the percentage cost of this pointless m0ney l@undering of so-called “t@x-cred1ts” is in terms of administration and reallocation c0sts?
You pay t@x, give it to the government, THEN get some back, if you’re eligible, fill out forms, fulfil certain cond1tions AND…?
On the other hand, a t@x-cut c0sts virtually nothing to administer. P@YE simply kicks in at a higher-level.
Job done.
ConHome are headlining this with the detail that 55% of Labour voters want Brown to quit. Ouch!
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2008/05/55-of-labour-vo.html
Are there any decent bets out there tonight? Maybe handicaps? Otherwise we’re looking at a couple of predictable primaries..
43- Planning the second term already! Bit presumptious.
You know full well that Cameron can’t/won’t say this. The tax cut would be bigger than the Tories promised in 97/01/05. If they did it would open themselves up to the attack that they are the same old Tories who would massacre public services. So it doesn’t provide an answer Cameron can use when asked about 10p.
41 - No. You are the dimwit. By your logic the tax rate that would produce the most revenue would be zero. Clearly bunkum. There is a tax rate that will produce the optimal rate of tax, with any increase producing less revenue. But taxes could rise before that started to happen.
Someone said tonight (E Pickles, I think) that despite appearances to the contrary, the real Lab candidate in Nan & Crewe is Gordon Brown.
52 only 55%.. must have been weighted ….
44. MTF. I agree. I am just the same. Like you I get my news from Sky, Fox for the US news and the internet. Not interested in the BBC anymore except from the one or two decent series that they still have left and some of the political shows (This Week, Question Time and Marr on Sundays).
Opps 57 should be to 41.
Ladbrokes - Politics - London Mayoral Election
London Mayoral Election 2012
Boris Johnson to be elected Mayor 1.83
Boris Johnson to not be elected Mayor 1.83
Ken Livingstone to be elected Mayor 11.00
Brian Paddick to be elected Mayor 201.00
51. You have to remember though, some of the tax credits can be quite substantial, we arent talking small fry, for instance, a single person earning £10,000 a year with two children would get about £7,000 in tax credits…..
You try taking that away and the 10p thingie will seem like a picnic
57
I always thought This Week was brilliant, but I am tiring of Portillo and Abbot. They are almost caricatures. Portillo’s comments during the local elections were nonsense…. and to think I one thought that he would be the best person to be leader after Maggie…….
CR - I agree with you to an extent about tax credits. They are being made to do too much work. Old-fashioned redistribution would be better. Increase the personal allowance while increasing the rate for basic and higher tax payers. Would make the system more progressive. Could be designed so only people earning say 30/35k started to lose out. Might keep a much scaled down tax credit system as it allows negative tax as an incentive to work.
Also has political advantages for Labour. The less tax bourne by the low-paid the less it is an issue for them and by extension the majority of voters.
41. Bolted Horse, the Laffer curve is a convenient fiction put about by neo-liberals. Just look what happened in the US when Reagan cut taxes dramatically: the deficit ballooned and it took the best part of a decade to sort it out.
Especially at the margins (eg Gordon’s 2p off the base rate) it’s not clear that tax changes have any effect on work incentives at all. This may also be the case with larger tax cuts, because the income effect (of needing to work less to maintain a given income) may outweigh the substitution effect (the greater attractiveness of work over leisure, because marginal earnings are now higher) causing workers simply to work shorter hours and enjoy themselves more.
There are many reasons - economic and moral - for keeping the tax burden as low as possible. But the argument that tax cuts actually increase government revenues isn’t one of them.
61. Absolutely, Portillo doesn’t seem like a Conservative anymore and no doubt Abbott will get more defensive and partisan now Brown’s head is on the block.
63 erm nothing to do with massive increases in public spending????????????????
PB ALERT*****
Polls close in Indiana in approx 50 minutes.
However, by state law, any voter who is lined up to vote (in the “chute”) by 6pm is eligible to vote. So it could take plenty of polls to actually finish voting. Then comes the counting.
Back when I was an Indiana poll inspector in the 1987 Indiana Primary (meaning I was in charge of the voting for that precinct) the poll workers in each precinct counted all the votes, including absentees, for each race on the ballot. Which was a lenghty process if the ballot was long & turnout was high, which it definitely was not at the primary I worked at, which was an Indiana University dorm.
Today, the voting system has changed.
About 60% of the voters will be using electronic voting machines. Aside from concerns (valid or otherwise) about electronic ballots (I’m a hardcopy guy myself) this may speed the count in the counties using this system for all voting.
The other 40% will be voting via optical scan ballots, such as used for the recent London elections. That is, voter mark a papar ballot, which is then tabulated via a scanner. In some systems, ballots are fed into the tabulators individual by the poll voter; in other systems the setup is central count, with all ballots being transported to counting centers (typically one per county) where they are run through the op-scan tabulators.
Note that even in counties using op-scan systems, at least one electronic ballot voting machine per pollsite must be provided, so that blind and other disabled voters may cast their ballots independently. This is a requirement of federal election law, specifically the Help America Vote Act (HAVA) of 2002.
Further note that the counting system and organizaton can make a significant difference in the speed of the ENight count from one county to another. In general, a high turnout tends to slow the system down, for a variety of reasons.
1 - 11% is quite pro labour
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Worst PM of all time deserves everything he gets…….
Hillary last traded at 20.7 on Intrade, going nowhere fast.
O/T - Tony’s next job seems in jeopardy….
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7386891.stm
So Boris’s dad is to apply for Henley, Dunwoody’s daughter has been selected for Crewe and Nantwich. The heredity principle is alive and kicking.
Brian Taylor, BBC Scotland’s political editor, has appended a brief update to his report earlier today:
- “… there’s more chat offstage re Gordon Brown’s position. Within a confusing set of circumstances, it seems clear that the PM didn’t give his explicit sanction to this initiative by Wendy Alexander.
One Westminster source told me the issue of a referendum had been discussed, sporadically, over a prolonged period.
Further, the same source suggested Ms Alexander had been losing the case for holding a referendum.
By this view, she then opted to “freelance” by confirming her views on BBC Scotland’s Politics Show after a report in the Sunday Mail suggesting that Labour was ready to sanction a ballot.
My source said there was both “anger and disappointment” at Wendy Alexander’s initiative.”
Whoops-a-daisy!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/briantaylor/2008/05/taking_a_risk.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/7386258.stm
65. Well, yes, partly to do with increases in public spending as well. But also because Reagan’s tax cuts didn’t deliver the extra revenue they promised to.
70 - Yes but it is somewhat ironic that Labour selected Ms Dunwoody and the Conservatives won’t select Stanley.
33 - or stop the handouts to all mothers with illegitimate children!
That would save £100bn per year!!!
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE poll of polls that comprises ICM, Populus, YouGov, CR and MORI that gives :
Con 40.8% .. Lab 28.2% .. LibDem 19.2% .. Others 11.8%.
The PISSED Wells/Baxter Index with added SOAMES weighting shows :
Con 353 seats .. Lab 215 .. LibDem 50 .. Others 32.
Con majority of 57.
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN …… Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES … System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
Political Capital: today’s primaries are important.
If Hillary wins both, she is back in the race. (Although it’s worth remembering that were she to get a 10 point win in Indiana, scrape a victory in North Carolina, and then win each of the remaining contests by a whopping 20%, she’d still be 100 pledged delegates behind…)
But, more realistically, Hillary cannot hope to persuade the superdelagates to overturn the winner of the primaries, without winning the popular vote. And, as Indiana and North Carolina contain about half the remaining American (as opposed to Puerto Rican) voters, then she needs a good performance. A 4% win in Indiana and a 15% loss in North Carolina puts her back where she was pre-Pennsylvania. And while West Virginia is likely to be very good for her (a 100,000 vote lead is possible), she’s running out of runway to beat Obama in the popular vote.
The question, then, is: can Obama pull back the delegates and popular vote he lost in PA (i.e. c. 12 and 210,000)? If he can, then the race is as good as over. If Hillary stays in touch, then has a likely blow-out in West Virginia, then the game continues.
Still, the problem for Hillary is that Obama essentially only has to win or two more primaries (for momentum’s sake), while Hillary has to win practically every remaining contest…
43
Bang on. Tax Credits are his religion and his chosen legacy and he will never give them up or slim them down. (Control the proles while wearing a Santa mask. Perfect. Let’s not have the buggers lifting up their heads from our generously provided and completely state controlled trough.) Tax Credits will hang him, in the end, although he can’t see it. Complexity makes him look - to the dim and Polly Toynbee - a lot cleverer than he actually is. Messianic drive, hard-boiled cynicism and intimidation (nice!) got him through as Chancellor but PM is a whole different game for which he has no qualifications whatsoever - and there’s nowhere for a PM to hide. He could threaten ‘no job when I go to No 10′ while he was in No 11 and the scales had not fallen from his MPs’ eyes as they have now. Now it has dawned on them that it is all, when the chips are down, Scotch mist. Delivery is all - and he can’t deliver.
70 err hang on a mo. There has been no selection process in Henley, lets wait and see before anyone pronounces.. I doubt Boris’s Dad will get the nomination somehow, but its up to the local party membership.
75 very fair minded poll from the one who knows………….
In line with ave it projections……….
66. Not strictly true. Polls in much of Indiana (including, crucially, both the Gary and Evansville areas) do not close until 7 Eastern time, or 6 Central time. Parts of western Indiana are in the Central time zone.
If the Tories can’t get their candidate elected as MP for Henley without having to resort to Johnson Snr and whilst they’re enjoying double digit poll leads then God help them.
81 - It won’t be Johnson Snr.
Early exit poll details from NC and IN :
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap_campaignplus/20080506/ap_ca/primary_exit_poll_glance
Tonight’s US news:
McCain’s certain victory, the most certain since Ronald in 1980, continues.
The US voters - those of middle class background + working class people who wish to get on continue to support REP.
It will be the biggest REP win since 1980. It will be Rep 55% Dem 45% and REP will win about 450 electoral votes including every major state excl New York.
Its nailed on.
63: no. The Laffer curve is trivially true at extremes. (If tax was 100% you wouldn’t work and the govt would recieve no revenue; likewise if tax was 0%, there would be no government revenue.)
It’s relevance for policy setting is another matter. Personally, I’d go for a single rate of tax - say 33%, and then have a pretty high personal allowance (say 10 to 15k). I would also get rid of absolutely all tax credits and allowances, and consider benefits a part of ordinary income.
This would help the very poorest, who would be taken out of the tax system altogether, while also encouraging the world’s richest to come and spend time in a relatively low tax country. Think Switzerland without the skiing or the gaiety.
Also worth noting that the North Carolina exit polls may be expected to be more Clinton-friendly than usual unless the exit pollsters weight them for the early voting turnout (as early voting black turnout was very high, 40.7%).
74 - You should start lobbying Cameron about this suggestion immediately Ave it. I will be very disappointed if it is not in the Tory manifesto next time
FIRST EXIT POLLS:
HILLARY +7 IN INDIANA, OBAMA +12 IN NORTH CAROLINA
Source - Huffington… dunno what their source was.
87 LOL it will bring us overall maj 20%!!!!!! 450 seats !!
86: yes, there were 460,000 early votes, of which more than 40% were African American. The numbers I saw - I forget where - has the early votes breaking 59-41 to Obama. But treat that number with extreme caution ’cause I can’t remember where I saw it, and it may just be someone else’s guess.
88 sounds about right. Add the early voting to the numbers, and that gives a c. 14% lead for Obama in NC. Doesn’t affect Indiana much.
It seems we stay firmly in Kieran’s scenario 2
88 4 Nov 08 McCain wins!
Just like this!!!!!!!!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1980
81. I actually think that if the Tories select Stanley Johnson after Tamsin Dunwoody has been selected then it makes a bit of a mockery of our democracy especially in the eyes of the voters. it just seems to indicate that you need to be in a “political family” to get places and makes westminster seem more remote and cliquey than it already is.
86 - I would have thought they would do this. They aren’t completely stupid are they?
Glad to see Leicester taking the relegation well
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I’m sure the Tories can find a bright, young 30 something Cameroon to contest Henley rather than Johnson Snr.
Thought Ian Dales blog with Eric Pickles this evening was interesting. Not that his answers were particularly enlightning (they never are in a web-chat forum, where answers have to be brief) But rather the way the Conservatives are really embracing the internet in a way Labour are not. This aspect of the Conservatives campaign really is starting to make Labour look outdated.
93 - We don’t have a very dynastic democracy, certainly compared to the US. Yes you have exceptions like the Benns but these are pretty small scale.
94: don’t forget, the numbers we are getting now are early leaks, and almost certainly “raw”. Only after polls close will we get properly adjusted numbers.
ABOUT TONIGHT’S EXIT POLLS
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0508/Dont_trust_the_exits.html
….. and pretty much exactly what Rod Crosby’s spreadsheet was projecting - can we all go to bed now?
96 They are outdated, not just looking like it. Yesterdays men and women, no vision, no bright ideas. Its now all centred on how to avoid implosion. I heard several Labour MP’s today, none of them seemed to have any idea of how to get out of the mess they are in. They just repeat mantra.
100. Peter. Go to bed now! Are you a man or a mouse?
101. Probably because there is no way out…. I bet they will think twice before allowing someone to become leader unopposed in future.
On topic: I am surprised that the poll isn’t a bit better for the tories than this - although I suppose the local election coverage might take longer to feed into poll figures.
Peter Riddell has an interesting piece on it:
If Labour is no longer trusted more than the Tories on the economy, it is hard to see how the party can win the next election. Evidence that the economy has turned is a long way off, but Mr Brown no longer has the reserves of political support with the necessary patience.
There is also the complication for Mr Cameron of the Liberal Democrats, which refuse to be squeezed out of the race at 19 per cent, up two points over the month. Admittedly, their estimated national share of the vote fell last Thursday, but the party achieved a net gain of seats, winning from Labour in the North and losing to the Tories in the South. This has boosted Nick Clegg, whose leader rating has risen for the second month running, up from 4.27 to 4.52 among voters generally and from 5.53 to 5.72 amongst Lib Dem supporters.
Yet if voters are warming to Mr Cameron and the Tories, the story of the past week was essentially about the unpopularity of Mr Brown and Labour. The Tories need a firmer base if they are to win outright rather than merely deny Labour an absolute majority. As the Cameron camp accepts, the Tories have to do much more to give the public a reason to vote for them rather than against Labour.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3883091.ece
Something there for everyone - but not very much for Labour.
63. As 85 says (sort of) the Laffer curve clearly does exist. You can argue about what shape it is, and where the point of maximum revenue is, but it exists
103 - Indeed, didn’t their Scottish Leader also get elected unopposed and a right horlicks she’s making of things. Salmond must be laughing non-stop!
105. Only as an analysis of extremes. The “curve” inplied by the term “Laffer curve” is a complete myth outside of extremely low and extremely high taxation rates (that is, less than 10% and above 80%). Revenue numbers change drastically both up and down at what would on the face of it appear to be random locations, although deep and complete analysis would show that the changes are not random at all.
Is it really only 7 months since Brown had a 12 point lead.
Brown won’t go. He believes all these problems are global and nothing to do with him. Cruddas knows what’s happening, a shift to conservatism.
Hmm 10th out of 51 on the competition. Not bad I suppose. RM, are you who I think you are?
102 I’m staying up at least for a clearer view of the exit polls, although no betting excitement is in prospect, especially after I took insurance on my Hillary +16% bet in NC to ensure either zero loss/modest profit.
107. Hang on, in the first sentence you claim the Laffer curve is a complete myth, and the go on to say that what you believe in is… the Laffer curve…
Hazel on Newsnight ………………:)
Blears is about a lot at the moment. Does she ever not look happy??
In ‘80, CBS famously “called” Florida while the panhandle was still voting. With Indiana tonight similarly having two times for polls to close, does anyone know how the US networks are going to approach things? Hold off, or risk a backlash from calling things early?
In 114 I meant 2000.
‘Your leader is a LOSER’ HAHAHAHAHAH
114: if it’s Clinton +7, they won’t call the result yet. If it’s Clinton +10 or more then they will…
I suspect we’ll have to wait till 2am. Or, as I call it in New York, 9pm.
Paxman to a bleary looking Blears: “You’re leader is a LOSER isn’t he?!!” LOL
But they’ll still wait till all voting as finished, i.e. midnight UK time.
Hillary ticked up a few points into the mid twenties on the Iowa Exchanges :
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Nomination08_quotes.html
If Brown is the problem, then the solution is pretty obvious to me.
Labour are hesitating over whether they would benefit from replacing Brown. Well, they should ask themselves this question. Who would David Cameron like to be Labour leader at the next General Election? Gordon Brown of course. So again the answer is obvious.
vc.bet now have a market on whether Brown will be Labour leader at the next election. Yes 2/5, No 7/4.
The hugginton post has now moved its IN exit poll calculation to +5 for Clinton.
121 - I think that whilst Brown is a problem for Labour, dumping Brown would be a bigger headache. Labour would look foolish, having a year ago elected him leader by acclamation. Wiser heads in the Labour party know that they have dug their grave over Brown and need to lie in it and be covered by the earth. None of the new guard want the leadership this side of an election defeat and none of the old guard would do much better than Brown.
Huffington!
blears on newsnight…….. words fail me. Labour to lose C&N by a mile if this rubbish carries on
Blacks about 14% in IN, 34% in NC.
97. I agree we don’t have a dynastic system I just think that in the eyes of the public the two selections will seem to indicate that you have to be an “insider” to get elected. I think that looks unhealthy. It is just how I reckon it will be perceived.
127 - Yes but Stanley won’t be selected for Henley so it isn’t an issue.
Also on Huff one exit has Obama +1 …. It might be a long night.
114-Didn’t Carter concede while the West Coast was still voting?
123-The only way Labour can get away with changing a leader would be by calling a snap election which despite the new leader they are certain to lose, even if they (unlikely IMHO) come out as largest party. Then, what kind of mandate: I called an election and lost my majority. I think they’re stuck with Brown, who won’t quit, but at least it gives them to more years at the trough.
129 - for which state?
127 - Do you really think the majority of the public will even know about the selections?
131 Heskey. Indiana.
So, a week before the local elections Frank Field, who had been kicking up a fuss on the issue, was telling all and sundry that Brown had assured him that all 5.3 million 10p tax losers would be fully compensated and backdated. However, within a day or two it had become clear that there was no such commitment from Brown or anyone within the government and that Field was either spinning on behalf of Brown or had been lied to.
At the weekend Field again began kicking up a fuss on this issue, then today we are informed that he has been in to see Alistair Darling and had been assured that everything possible would be done to compensate and backdate all the tax losers.
Deja vu? Is Field just incredibly naive or is there more to it?
BTW tomorrows papers look grim reading for Brown.
Cheers. Had a lay of Clinton there, am hoping he at least makes it close enough for me to possibly trade.
Just to calm down all the Beeb haters. This poll was reported on 5live this evening, albeit the aspect of it where 55% of Labour voters think that the party’s doomed unless Brown resigns. Good job for him that they the rules leave it up to the gutless MPs to wield the knife.
Socrates/Huggington - thought you were attempting to coin a new pb.com meme!
Has anyone ever noticed how Nick Clegg is like Neil Kinnock?
Mike Allen, of politico.com, being interviewed on Hugh Hewitt, says exits showing Obama winning NC by a few points more than Clinton is taking Indiana. High single digits vs mid single digits.
re 33 and what’s the matter with raising the basic and higher rates?
CNN EXIT -
IN AA O-92/C08 .. NC AA O-91/C06
139 - Nothing but it would be politically difficult.
To my mind this is Brown’s biggest flaw, a fear of taking political risks and fighting his case. Instead redistribution and public spending increases are done by stealth.
121. I’m not sure that GB himself will agree with your analysis
Actually, I only agree with it in part. Brown is undoubtedly part of the problem, but he would remain part of the problem were he removed (even if that were practically possible, which it isn’t). Besides, Brown is also right in part to say that some of his troubles are not of his making - though some of the reasons why he can’t effectively counter them are. The economic slowdown, the credit crunch and the oil price hikes do have a global aspect to them but then he was chancellor for 10 years and can’t escape his share of the blame, and irrespective of who is to blame, changing the leader of the Labour Party won’t fix those global problems.
140 - If that is right Obama would have to be below 30% of white votes to lose NC.
63 I thin the only way any government could cut raise thresholds or cut income tax rates would be to increase VAT at the same time. This was done during the first two and a bit Thatcher terms, only with the VAT hike coming first to pay off some of the debt, with the tax rates down/thresholds up by the latter part of the 1980’s, culminating in the 1988 Lawson budget.
I don’t know the likely figures (IFS needed here…) but a nice round ball-park figure of 20% VAT would shift thresholds a long way towards £10k at basic rate IMHO. If that sounds outlandish, another big shift from direct to indirect (consumption) taxes, note that the French have their standard rate of VAT 19.6%!
The only hang ups about such a shift is that it skews inflation figures for a year, and adding to the cost of goods (albeit not essentials) when money is already tight is perhaps perverse. Whatever, and as Brown got so horribly wrong in his first parliamentary term as Chancellor, big changes like these have to be implemented from the off. Buggering about for two or three years, flirting with Prudence, wastes the first term when all the motivation is there.
If Brown/Darling tried such a move now, it’d be shot to pieces. It’d need a new Government to bring it about with all the momentum it brings.
IN results beginning to trickle in on CNN.
120 Hillary down on intrade at 18, first time her falling back below 20 for quite a few days……
144 - Why do that? It wouldn’t help the poor, they would be hardest hit by an increase in VAT.
re 141 Rubbish. Not if lower and middle income earners gain. It might be politically difficult for Labour who conned the electorate in 1997 by saying that they would never raise the basic rate and higher rates of income tax and have been making the pips squeak in sundry underhand ways ever since.
142 The problem is that Brown could do a lot more damage to the UK economy over the next two years. At the weekend he was claiming, dishonestly, that we have low debt and can therefore borrow more money to help spend our way out of the rising difficulties. Such a reckless course could destroy international investors confidence in the UK and crash sterling, causing a massive rise in imported inflation. Looks like under Brown we may be back on the road to the IMF with a begging bowl as in the seventies.
Jack W - I see from the previous threads that your ARSE is predicting a Tory win in Crewe & Nantwich, and you posit that 4/5 is good odds.
Care for £20 at even money that the Tories don’t win it?
IN & NC exit poll # for Black vote indicate that African American turnout is comperable to White turnout; meaning that Black turnout is somewhat better than normal but not spectacularly so.
150 Should Jack be unable or unwilling to accommodte you, Morus, you have have my number…..
New Exits from Huff :
IN - Clinton 49.5% .. Obama 50.5%
NC - Clinton 38% …. Obama 60%
Note - Exit have overstated Obama in some states.
48 - It is likely only people earning less than 35k (at best) would gain and there would be a lot of squeals from higher earners. You pick out the reason why it was not possible for Brown - the pledge to higher and basic rate tax payers.
INDIANA PRIMARY
CNN has scattered votes reported for 6 small counties, Clinton is leading 64% v 36% for Obama with less than 1% of precincts reporting statewide.
22 Casino
The man in the tails was a Labour Party activist.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3882450.ece
How do the news organisations get the results before they even appear on the SoS website? This pattern has been repeated across many previous primaries too. Do they have their own people on the ground in each precinct?!
Morus, I’ll join the queue too…..
153 - From those I’d say the final score will be Clinton wins Indiana by 7 or 8 (percent, there will be little difference in delegates) but Obama more convincing in NC than I expected, into double figures.
There have been some occasions where exits were on the kind side to Clinton though.
Indiana - of six counties reporting any votes, note that only 1 is op-scan while other 5 are electronic ballot.
150 Morus. Thanks but I don’t bet with PBers. PtP will accomodate you.
149. What makes you think that a different Labour PM/chancellor would act differently?
158 Me, too
159 I agree, UKPaul. And if those are the numbers, or close to it, it will have been a good night for Obama. She has to knock him out to draw…
159. I’m sticking with Clinton by 6 in Indiana, but increasing my NC guesstimate to Obama +14%
158/163 Form an orderly queue for Morus !!
161 Noted with thank, jack, but I feel bad about taking money off Morus. Double Carpet, over to you….
Is Mathew “The Partridge” Partridge still assuming that Hillary has a 50% shot at the nomination?
161 - Fair enough, squire.
PtP, Double Carpet, and PfP at £10 evens apiece? My terms are the Tories *not* to gain C&N - agreed?
157 - The Associated Press (AP) stations reporters at each counting center (one per county) to call in the returns. Often the returns are available at the county election offices before they are entered election workers into the state reporting system.
167 - Nonsense, Peter! I insist!
142. David. This is how I would like events to unfold.
Brown is persuaded to step down in the interests of the party and the country. The cabinet then appoints one of their number as Prime Minister. Jack Straw. The Labour PLP are consulted as to their views on the Labour leadership. They voluntarily and unanimously decide that a unity candidate is required to lead Labour and the country into the next election and that it should be Jack Straw. With 100% backing of the PLP a vote of the Labour party as a whole would be farcical, so somehow this is ruled unnecessary.
Job done. And my view is Labour are then back in with a fighting chance.
Morus - I say Tories will gain Crewe - £10 at evens - bet agreed, many thanks.
172. In such a situation, it would be absolutely necessary to call a general election within a few weeks…