Are punters right about Crewe & Nantwich?
May 7th, 2008
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Is a Tory victory a near certainty?
Ever since the betting markets opened on the Crewe and Nantwich by election all the money has been going one way. Ladbrokes opened with a 4/5 Tory price which then went to 4/7 and is now at 1/2.
Betfair has seen a big rush to get on the Tories and, as I write, the best you can get is 0.34/1. Another bookmaker has 4/9.
But is punter confidence in the Tories justified - after all we have to go back until June 1982 to find the last time that the party gained a seat in a Westminster by-election?
The central questions are how many of the 22,140 who voted for Gwyneth Dunwoody in 2005 have switched and, the extent to which party machine is be able to get its core vote to the polling stations on May 22nd. For Labour always finds it much harder to get its people out in elections when the government of the country is not at stake - just look at last week’s locals.
The national general election polls are telling us two things: that Labour supporters are much less likely than Tories to say they are certain to vote and that between 12% and 20% of those who say they were Labour in 2005 have now switched to the Tories.
On the face of it then it’s a no-brainer - if the Tories can maintain the bulk of their general election vote of 14,162 and are attracting Labour switchers on the scale that the polls are suggesting then Cameron will do it.
The fly in the ointment could be the Lib Dems who polled a creditable 8,083 three years ago. Their initial task is to persuade enough of the electors that voting for them, and not the Tories, is the best way of unseating Labour. They have also got a terrific by election record, hundreds of activists who flood into the area every day to help, and a track record of producing by election literature that works.
Their challenge is not being squeezed out with the media increasingly presenting the current political situation in two party terms. What happened to the Lib Dem vote in London shows where that can lead.
By election polls. We have only seen two of these in recent years - at Hartlepool in 2004 and in Gwent last year. In the former the Labour vote was hugely inflated while in the latter the poll got the final outcome wrong. They are very difficult for pollsters to do because it’s hard getting a representative sample. Also opinion is more likely than at other elections to change during a campaign. I don’t know whether there will be one but if there is I would treat it with ultra caution.
Mike Smithson
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I’m avoiding for now - may have a small wager on Labour if they are 3/1 or better.
Crewe and Nantwich: the hardhitting new detective drama from the people that brought you “Grunt and Futtocks: Agents in Law” and “LLPD: Police Department”
1. The Labour spread on betfair is 3.8-5.8, average of 3.8/1
McGovern, who has been backing Clinton, urges her to drop out:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/news/ap/politics/2008/May/07/mcgovern__former_clinton_backer__urges_her_to_drop_out.html
I guess DC may have learned something from the misfiring Tony Lit but I’m not sure.
Have you all taken in to account the Patriot factor?
The Patriots supported the Tories in London and helped Boris get elected. I think it will be a different story in Crewe.
http://www.bnp.org.uk/2008/02/08/the-littlejohn-syndrome/
Full marks to the Tories for hitting the ground running, but will they be able to maintain the momentum, and do they know what to do with it when they have it? Too soon to tell.
Given the trauma thats going on in the Labour Party right now, I guess its fair to have the Tories as favourites, but somehow I’m still not convinced they will get this off Labour….
On the other blog I notice theres reports that David Cameron has called a meeting of all Parliamentery MP’s. I wonder if the Tory leadership has got a feeling Brown could fall quite soon, and Cameron is putting his party on a possible general election footing? If Brown does get pushed out, Labour will surely install a “safe pair of hands” candidate, which I think would mean they have to go to the country within relatively short time?
7 - I expect they know exactly what they are doing. Pickles is a hell of a tactician.
6. The patriotic thing would be to stand aside for the Conservatives
Anywhere I can bet on Labour to come third?
True… in fact the Lib Dem literature is probably the difference between them winning and losing. By contrast, and from what I have seen of the current offerings, the tories literature is utter tripe
ARSE has already given its betting call for C&N !!!
“There’s nothing better than a Conservative ARSE in Crewe and Nantwich”
Meanwhile, as the media reported that Obama and Clinton were ruining each other’s chances of getting elected against a strong McCain, GOP leaders who know the real score are panicking.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10138.html
From the last thread.
I don’t understand how Johann Hari is given so much space to write his ill-informed crap. He’s basically still writing the same top of his head rubbish that he used to write for Varsity when we were at Cambridge.
Because he was given a job straight after university he seems able to get away with the same immature claptrap he wrote when he was 18 and his style has not developed at all.
He’ll still be writing juvenilia when he’s 55.
The media narrative right now is Tory. It’s hard to see them not getting the swing they need, given a reduced Labour turnout. Labour coming 3rd is an interesting possibility.
8. The LDs voted against the removal of the 10% tax band and the Tories did not. I am sure the LD bye election machine will continue to remind C&N’s labour voters of this and voting LD is the most acceptable way of expressing their protest and giving Gordon another strong message on what they think of him!
I’ve just put money on Labour at 3.80 on betfair.
They won the Ealing and Sedgefield by-elections with no real problems, (despite the fact Gordon was a bit more popular) it was still after a tonking in the locals.
The Lib by election surge is likely to be cancelled out by the uprising Tories, who are generally poor at by elections and the Labour vote (as it did in London) won’t disintegrate if the tories are a real threat. The tories are too confident.
Although I did also bet on Livingstone - you may want to ignore my advice!!
Dont forget to watch PMQ’s on Sky tonight at 8.30. It will be interesting to see who Adam’s guests are and how they scored it. On Adam boultons blog just now its Cameron 91% Brown 4% Clegg 3% neither 2%……….
The Tories will have to do a lot better than letting DC be ambushed on the 10 p tax question on the ten o clock news last night and not
coming up with a convincing response
3.8 is a good price considering the majority they are defending - but I suspect it could drift further initially
Hmm.. Don’t see anything to make the Tories more than an even money bet. Okay, Dunwoody Junior is from outside the constituency, and an hereditary approach may not suit Labour voters. But let us not forget that there will be a huge sympathy vote here - as there was for Trish Law as an Independent following the death of her husband.
Okay, the tribal Labour loyalty was neutralised in that case, and we seem to be asking whether there will be tribal Labour loyalty in this instance.
But this seems a bit of a 50/50 contest even in the current tough conditions for Labour - and there will be many constituents there who will be hoping for continuity from someone who was effective as a local MP.
15. Mr. Hari is the the gay young left equivalent of Bruce Anderson
After Jack’s BUTT called last night to within one percent I feel we can now rest easy!
(seriously: this is nuts. Labour’s majority is 7k plus)
18 - I think the last two by-elections were largely won on the Brown bounce. That is not a factor now.
20. It didn’t look great but he was still out and about engaging with the public. the man responsible for the 10p tax rate was where?
Increasingly I feel support for Brown’s Premiership haemorrhaging away. I now actually do think that he will be replaced this year.
I have been arguing for a while that the Labour PLP should encourage him to stand down, to increase their own electoral chances but others have said Labour are stuck with him and a replacement would not improve the situation.
I now think it has now gone beyond that point. When the country and Labour voters specifically, have so little faith in the Prime Minister, as is presently the case, then we are approaching a crisis of confidence. With no prospect of him restoring his position, I believe he will be forced out before long.
Can we have a link to the Johann Hari piece pl?ease
I don’t believe it is a near certainty. This seat was created in 1983, it’s an industrial railway town with a strong allegence to Labour. Neither Thatcher nor Major ever won it in the Tory glory days, Labour always found a way to win here. Add to that how hopeless the Tories are at bye-elections, and the fact Gwyneth Dunwoody is very popular in the town; and with her daughter standing for that may be crucial, I am not writing Labour off here yet.
If Cameron can do it here it would be a huge victory, as this is possibly one of the most difficult places of the areas that can be described as ‘marginals’ for the Tories to win, it would not be a 1980’s Thatcherite town or suburb coming home after a decade flirtation of Blairism, it would be a win in very much new teritory.
26
Gordon canvassing in C&N would be the kiss of death to Labour. He’d probably be booed in the streets…
28. http://blogs.independent.co.uk/openhouse/2008/05/livingstonite-r.html?cid=113658486#comment-113658486
He thinks Amersham is in London. Obviously he did some research by looking at a tube map and picking the place furthest from the centre.
The only way this would be a Tory certainty is if there is an incident involving Lord Rennard, a crazed driver and a Number 31 Bus
“By election polls. We have only seen two of these in recent years - at Hartlepool in 2004 and in Gwent last year.”
Are you absolutely sure about that? I seem to remember one at Livingston in 2005. And what about Dunfermline & West Fife in 2006? Also fairly certain there was one in Moray in 2006, although that was Holyrood, not Westminster.
Not much sign of a Con/LD love in here
http://www.politicshome.com/landing.aspx#764
LDs give DC a worse score for PMQs than GB - meow !
18. So Gordon was just a ‘bit more popular’ at the time of last year’s Ealing Southall and Sedgefield by-elections? His ratings have literally collapsed since then. Also, the 2007 locals were fought with Blair as leader.
Will the Lab voters in C & N be happy the way the Lab candidate ‘has been imposed from above’? She has a family connection to the seat through her late mother, but in different circumstances would she still be seen as the best candidate for this seat? This sort of behaviour by Labour is not new, Bob Cryer was followd by his wife in Keighley, but this hereditary principle goes against selection on merit. It could look like a case of it is what you know, but who you know.
Dr Johnson wrote something on the lines of ‘patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel. Brown and the BNP seem to forget this.
29 - It is perfectly possible for parties to win in seats they have never won before.
35. hard to believe that votes at those bye elections were won or lost by Brown’s leadership - he hadn’t done anything at that point
34, some Lib Dems, such as Mark Senior, seem to have a visceral hatred for the Conservatives. Quite odd.
Mind you, Brown’s general PMQ approach is that the Tories are made of evil.
i should have typed.
“A case of it isn’t what you know, but who you know.”
Didn’t someone post last week that the local election result in C & N could translate into a 4,000+ Tory majority at the by-election?
36 If people want to vote for a “name” then that is democracy.
27. Things are just so god awful for Labour at the moment. I don’t see how they can go on like this for another two years. You would think sooner or later that somethings got to give. Then again, look how long the Major government went on, lurching from one crisis to another. Were things as ghastly as this in the last government, though? I don’t think so, but then again, time does blunt the impact of things to some degree, so maybe things were this bad, and I’ve just kind of forgotten?
Adam Boulton’s blog has just posted an update that Cameron has written to Gordon for a clarifaction of the bendy wendy issue.
The spin in writing that reply is likely to make anyone reading it go dizzy….
42, the answer to Life, the Universe and Everything (and also detention without charge) will be another low point.
He’s also planning ‘constitutional’ reforms. God alone knows how he intends to ruin the country still further. I suspect it’ll mean a ridiculous rejigging of the Lords, which personally I think is fine as an appointed and hereditary chamber.
39. Anyone seen Mark Senior ? I’m due him £20.
43. The reply will just be another version of what he said at PMQ’s, only longer and even more incomprehensible.
I find it mildly amusing that the Labour Party should try to pull the “Tory Toffs” stunt just a few days after using the Hereditary principle to choose their candidate.
42. “27. Things are just so god awful for Labour at the moment. I don’t see how they can go on like this for another two years.”
Well presumably you can remember back to 1995 when Major went on like this for two years; and back to 1986 when Mrs Thatcher was beleagured over Westland and managed to get through, and of course sunny Jim Callaghan in 1978 who struggled on for a year or so before being put out of his misery by the lack of one Sir Alfred Broughton to whom this country has owed a debt of gratitude ever since.
Brown will survve, the worst is probably nearly over and Labour MP’s and activists are increasingly resigned to their fate, not all of them think his coming unstuck is entirely a bad thing you know; presuming that it will kill of ‘New’ Labour for once and all.
27 Correct. I can’t see Brown surviving beyond the Party conference at the latest. If C&N is a disaster - especially if Labour came 3rd - that could be the tipping point. There is no support for him in the Party - most activists want him out and MPs - despite their public positions - will be aware of this.
@49:
Home Secretary and well-known retard Jacqui Smith has decided that Labour isn’t going to be doing any listening after all:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7386889.stm
Oh dear.
48. One of the most gripping political episodes of my lifetime; oh if only history could be repeated….
http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/march/28/newsid_2531000/2531007.stm
and it was over Scottish devolution, too IIRC.
48. Marcus Wood. Yes indeed. Each of those three PMs was beleaguered but the root of their problems was the circumstances that prevailed not their own unsuitability for the job.
@48:
…The worst is nearly over…
Yes. Those tractor productions figures are looking startlingly good, aren’t they?
Just watching PMQ’s, loads of tractor figures from Brown, Cameron managed to get some good shots in and some good lines in. Clegg just can’t stop attacking the tories can he, he hasn’t worked out that splitting your attack weakens them both. Even the planted questions are lame. The 42 days question seemed to throw him a bit, his reply was very stuttery, left long gaps and many misspeaks.
49 In that case, the Tories have to fine-tune the result so that Gordon is not humuliated, especially if they want him to be in office until the General Election.
over at Labourhome they are preparing for London elections 2012 and discussing possible Labour opponents to Bozza. http://www.labourhome.org/story/2008/5/7/11360/98624
suggestions so far: Tessa Jowell, Dave Rowntree from Blur and Oona King.
@56:
I think they should focus on ensuring there will still be a Labour Party in 2012 first.
56. Oona King, not great, hasn’t got enough personality. Dave Rowntree hasn’t either, and Tessa Jowell is tainted by the Gordon Brown stain.
56: ‘Dave Rowntree from Blur’
By 2012 Dave Rowntree will probably have all the street cred that DJ Mike Read had this time round.
Trevor Philips? He’s Labour, isn’t he? He’s also a very smart, adept man, however, which almost certainly rules him out of Labour candidacy.
60 Trevor Phillips? Not after what Ken Livingstone and his cronies did to him - and the way in which the Labour PArty left him in the lurch.
52. Ouch! You should be in politics…
Actually I’m not sure about Major, never thought he was PM material myself.
Tessa Jowell also appeared to have little grasp of costing the London Olympics. Didn’t she ‘ru(i)n’ Livingstone’s campaign?
62 - Next to Brown, Major looks like Winston f*cking Churchill.
- “Is the issue damaging for Labour? Yes. It’s a mess. SNP ministers in the Garden Lobby had to pinch themselves to stop grinning so evidently.
… For Gordon Brown, this isn’t part of the game plan. Quite simply, he doesn’t want to talk about Scotland.
He needs to address Middle England/Britain: concerns over tax, housing, crime, immigration and the economy.
Further, talk of a referendum on Scotland is particularly unhelpful. Why would he favour a referendum on Scottish independence - a prospect he abhors - when he is simultaneously refusing repeated demands for a popular plebiscite on the Lisbon Treaty?”
Why indeed?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/briantaylor/2008/05/wheres_your_referendum_now.html
65 - I wonder if you can help me, Stuart. I was always under the impression that if the Scottish Parliament voted to hold a non-binding referendum there would be nothing the Westminster Parliament could do to stop it?
There was some talk on The Daily Politics this morning that a referendum on independence would need to be approved by the Westminster Parliament. I have always thought that would only be the case if such a referendum were to be “the big one” - i.e. a yes vote would be the end of the Union. But today they seemed to be implying that any kind of referendum would need Gordo’s approval…
- “Deputy leader of the Scottish National Party’s parliamentary group Stewart Hosie later raised a point of order accusing Mr Brown of inadvertently misleading the House over the Scottish Government’s plans for a referendum.
Mr Hosie told MPs: “The Prime Minister said the Scottish Government was seeking to ‘postpone a referendum in 2010/11′ and that the Scottish Government was acting ‘against its manifesto’.
“That manifesto was explicit in setting out a timetable for that referendum in 2010 and in misrepresenting this, I fear the Prime Minister has inadvertently misled the House.
“Far from the referendum being delayed or a manifesto promise broken it is one the Scottish Government intends to keep.”
Speaker Michael Martin said the point of view of the Scottish Government and First Minister had now been put on the record and matters should be left there.
Ms Sturgeon was quoted as saying “Wendy Alexander’s position is now completely untenable. At a stroke, Gordon Brown has destroyed her leadership – and placed serious questions over his own, given the number of inaccuracies in his PMQ answers.”"
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/latestnews/Brown-denies-Scottish-referendum-declaration.4059843.jp
66. Eddie
I suppose that it all depends on whether you look at such issues in a de jure or a de facto fashion. In reality (ie. de facto) Scots are already ’sovereign’ (ie. ‘independent’). After all, the vast majority of then-serving Scottish MPs, including Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling, signed the Claim of Right for Scotland in 1989:
- “We, gathered as the Scottish Constitutional Convention, do hereby acknowledge the sovereign right of the Scottish people to determine the form of Government best suited to their needs, and do hereby declare and pledge that in all our actions and deliberations their interests shall be paramount.”
The “United” Kingdom pretty much ended on that day, de facto. It is just the de jure bit left to finalise.
The Lib Dems have reguarly scored swings of 20% plus at bye-elections aginst an unpopular Tory government during the 90’s.
Movements in opinion polls using latest Populus pol give a swing from Labour to Cons of 7% since last election which would leave the Tories *5 short.Howeever given the by election bash the goverment then this could double the swing handing the Tories a victory.And that would still be below swings lib dems have achieved against an unpopular tory governmnt.
Can the lib avoid being squueezed and spoil the party for Dave
Possible if they can persuade the ex Labour voters of C&N that dave is in Vince Cables words “shedding crocodile tears over the 10p rate” -given no evidence of tax cut plans to help the lower paid unlike the Lib dems plans fro asbolishing council tax and a 4p cut in basic rate.
But that is a tall order given the Tory monmetumand I think the Torie should be home and dry.
rogerh
I think the analogy for the C and N By election is that for Workington, November 1976. Rock solid Labour, Tory gain, obviously lost again in 1979 and never re-gained in the Conservative 18 years.
It will be an astonishing achievement for Project Cameron if C and N is won and I think that the odds understate the mountain which is to be climbed
Mr Dale has just posted this:
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=6214838&postID=2168200771953811832
If what is said is true (I’ve heard the core predictions elsewhere) then Brown’s woes will just get increasingly worse. I doubt any of his colleagues in the PLP will fancy challenging him until this storm has begun to die down.
Crewe and Nantwich.
Expect to go on Friday, will give a report back.
Was in Lancashire for the past three days, and watched the embarressing ambush of DC on the news. Labour and the Liberal Democrats will I suspect much of that over the next two weeks.
That is a Labour ploy at by elections, they usually visit the other parties HQ and demonstrate outside. Expect some of that.
Seem to recall the police being called because of this at one or two by elections.
The media will not notice the Liberal Democrats for 10 days or so, and then after their level of activity, will from the the last weekend start to ask questions and wonder. They are ususally a few days behind what is happening on the ground. Interesting that according to this mornings poll Clegg is more popular than Brown, must be the publicity Martin has been giving his mate Nick.
The Cons have the momentum of the desire for change behind them, but judging from this mornings national poll, there is not as huge a swing as I would have expected after the media coverage of the past few days.
What about that young lady standing for the “Beauty” option, bet she gets a few votes.
39. He probably drives an Austin Princess and wears a stick on beard!
72 Dave - I go along with all that and here is the beauty queen courtesy of the Daily Star:
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/36979/THE-SEXIEST-MP-/
72. Nick Clegg is more popular than Gordon Brown - that’s an achievement!
Nick Clegg is still like Neil kinnock!
72 - The Populus poll was from 2 to 4 May, so predates the impact of Gordon Brown’s TV offensive and a lot of the Labour chaos this week. I’m sure David Cameron will weep to be picking over an 11 point lead in an opinion poll from a pollster that has not historically been particularly forthcoming in identifying Tory support.
Normally would agree that it’s a huge ask for the Cons in Crewe. But who would have said that Labour would have lost 400+ seats last week?!
It’s true that Crewe itself is a very traditional Old Labour place but since the boundary revisions of the early 1980s it’s had a chunk of rural Cheshire added to it. Initially it was down as a nominal Tory gain but Gwyneth Dunwoody’s local popularity got Labour through 1983 and 1987. Since then the local Labour Party has obviously gained from the national unpopularity of the Tories. It’s one of those seats that looks safer than it is, if you take my meaning. Given the way traditional Labour voters are so cheesed off and Brown’s disastrous leadership it should be easy for the Tories. The problem as ever id the LDs - this is as much about Conservative success in stuffing them in a by-election as it is doing one over Labour for the first time in a long while.
“…some Lib Dems, such as Mark Senior, seem to have a visceral hatred for the Conservatives. Quite odd.”
Actually in the secret initiation ceremony that all Lib Dems go through (Their first pair of sandals are fitted by nubile members of the opposite sex*) we take a solemn oath to work tirelessly for the destruction of the Conservative Party.
Mark is a Grand Wizard I think.
* Or the same sex if preferred.
78. The good thing for the tories is Labour morale is lower than any party since 1997! Even the tories in 1997 were not as bad as this!
OT - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/glasgow_and_west/7387812.stm
First peer to take oath in Gaelic has died. Warm tribute from FM Salmond.
Off Topic Sport.
Man Utd are 5/4 to do the EPL ECL double. If the do it, then is Sir Always Furious a good bet for BBC SPOTY? Odds of 15.0 look pretty generous to me.
Betfair is offering handicap markets for West Virginia, next week.
79. I’ve been to Nantwich and environs. It’s rather prosperous, discreetly attractive, sprinkled with agreeable small towns etc. Must be fairly Tory I’d have thought.
Crewe is unpleasant. Ergo Labour.
I wonder if Tony Blair still supports Gordon Brown as leader? (If he ever did?) The body language between Brown and Blair at that news conference last week was attrocious!
81. That’s because most of the Tories in 1997 didn’t ‘get it’ and thought they would be back in power at the next election. If Labour is wiped out in 2010 there might be a few deluded souls but I think the overwhelming feeling will be, “What a waste of 13 years in power.”
Re C&N, let’s not forget the “..and Nantwich” bit. Crewe might be a down at heel old railway town, but Nantwich isn’t. And nor are the leafy villages surrounding both. Before 1983, I think the old Nantwich seat was solidly Tory.
And either way, in 2005, the Tories got 15,000 votes in C&N.
It is hardly Bootle.
The Tories must win, and will.
48 Marcus re Alfred Broughton and the confidence vote in 1979.
I find the tale of the whips offices on that vote remarkable and in fact heartwarming really.
From Wiki
“As the vote loomed, Labour’s deputy Chief Whip, Walter Harrison approached Bernard Weatherill (Conservative Chief whip) to enforce the convention and “gentleman’s agreement” that if a sick MP from the Government could not vote, an MP from the Opposition would abstain to compensate. The Labour MP Alfred Broughton was on his deathbed and could not vote, meaning the Government would probably lose by one vote. Weatherill rightly said that the convention had never been intendend for such a critical vote that literally meant the life or death of the Government, and it would be impossible to find a Conservative MP who would agree to abstain. However, after a moments reflection, he offered that he himself would abstain, because he felt it would be dishonorourable to break his word with Harrison. Walter Harrison was so impressed by Weatherill’s offer - which would have effectively ended his political career - that he released Weatherill from his obligation, and so the Government fell by one vote on the agreement of gentlemen.”
82 That link led me to seek her dad’s entry in Wikipedia and found a nice sentence regarding the Young Liberal’s attack on him for taking a life peerage:
“One particular critic was Tony Greaves, then editor of the Young Liberal publication “Gunfire” who argued that as the Liberal Party was in favour of a new social and political order, it was quite wrong to participate in the most pathetic feature of the existing order, the House of Lords. Tony Greaves became Baron Greaves of Pendle in 2000.”
85 - you beat me to it seanT.
Re the post upthread about the local results last week in C&N, yes, I read in the paper at the weekend that the Tory lead over Labour in the wards that make up C&N was over 4,000.
The Tories have won C&N once this month, they need to do it again in a fortnight.
85.
“Crewe is unpleasant. Ergo Labour.”
Zhit! Does that mean thar seanT is double Labour?
92. Crewe is not that bad, have you ever been to Stoke-on-trent SeanT?
Stoke is hell on earth!
93 - Martin - for once we agree. There are only two places I have been that are worse than Stoke. Neither is in the UK.
94. Yes! Stoke is horrible! Never been anywhere so depressing! Stoke-on-trent should really be a tatical nuclear weapon test ground!
91. I agree with you: the Tories need to win C&N to maintain real momentum. It’s no good trouncing everyone in locals, at some point you have to start winning by-elections, if you are to look like a government manque.
If not now, when?
I’m not at all sure they will win, though. The Dunwoody factor is very hard to predict. It MIGHT backfire on Labour - this woman asbeiling in from Wales, just cause she’s a Dunwoody scion: that might seem presumptuous, if not conniving and exploitative.
However it might do what Labour wants: winkle out enough sympathy for the Dunwoody name to fend off the Tories.
The quality of the Tory candidate is also crucial. He’s a local, but is he any cop? Then there’s the imponderable Lib Dems, as Mike says - they may be quiescent at the mo, but they are by-election whizzkids, as we all know.
To sum up: I’d say this is seat is unusually hard to predict, and I think the Tories are way overpriced at 1/2.
Evens at best.
94 - for the record they are Katowice and Kouvola.
96. The Dunwoody factor is very hard to predict. It MIGHT backfire on Labour - this woman asbeiling in from Wales, just cause she’s a Dunwoody scion: that might seem presumptuous, if not conniving and exploitative.
Well when Labour do election tricks like the Toffs - it makes Labour look rediculous as “inherited seats” have always been associated with Tories not Labour.
97. Sound Polish?
Think the odds are over-favouring the tories, especially as it is Gwyneth’s daughter that is the candidate for the seat. would bet on labour with these odds, especially given the tory by-election record.
96 - regardless of where she has blown in from , it is hard for the Tories to say “she’s not local”. I just don’t think that message will work, the way it did for the LDs in Eastbourne in 1990, when the Tories ran the ex-MP for Scunthorpe - and were lampooned in every Focus leaflet for it.
That said… Tories should scrape home - vote split Con 38% Lab 30% LD 24% others — you do the math.
94, 97 You’ve clearly never been to Withernsea….
In the West Virginia markets, there are these options:
Obama +20.5 Percent
Clinton -20.5 Percent
This is a spread; I understand; be just to be sure: does it mean that for anyone backing this winning means that the popular vote percentage should be inside the spread?
102 - Billingham and South Ockenden also should feature in such lists.
102. Have you ever been to Stoke?
Anyone know whether Tamsin Dunwoody is an impressive candidate in her own right or not?
99 - Polish and Finnish respectively. I also find the Medway Town vile in their entirety. They may soon have 3 Tory MPs - as may Sheppey, which is as grim as any island with 3 prisons sounds.
106. Well going on her impact in the welsh assembly…………..
103
I can not be ’cause Clinton’s gonna win this one for sure.
I’d appreciate if anyone can translate this to me (and yes, I did ordered M.S. book!)
sheppey sounds like something Mark Oaten does!
I think the Tory vote in C&N is starting from a large enough base for a competitive LibDem performance to be a good thing.
108. Martin, I don’t know anything about her. Please elaborate.
111. If the Lib Dems win C & N will it boost Nick Clegg’s leadership?
GIN at 42: To give a serious reply to that - if you’re not an MP it’s easy to underestimate how the big-P politics of the headlines are swamped by the everyday business. It’s like working for a firm threatened by a takeover bid - naturally you’re concerned, but you also need to carry on writing the programs or ordering the bricks or whatever you do.
Take yesterday: I had a committee from 1030 to 1, chaired a seminar from 1 to 330, back in committee from 430 to 7, lobbied Benn against the badger cull from 7 to 8, and then had votes around 10. In between, loads of letters and emails to deal with. How much time did I spend sitting around brooding on the political situation? Not much.
Parliament’s like that - unless you deliberately stand back and say “I’m going to take three hours out to discuss the overall situation with colleagues” there is always more than enough that you really ought to be doing, and that gives a certain ballast for stormy weather.
112. That’s the point! No impact other than her mothers name.
105 Yes I’ve been to Stoke. They had a lovely garden festival there some years ago. The place was just one giant garden city…..!!
In comparison, Withernsea looks like the B&Q end-of-sale dead and diseased greenery that never had a hope in hell of selling.
113 “If the Lib Dems win C & N will it boost Nick Clegg’s leadership?”
I think it would put him on the Vatican’s fast-track to sainthood.
The Lib Dems will struggle to establish themselves as the alternative here in the wake of the local opinion polls and the general election result. Nevertheless, they will get more leaflets through doors than the Tories. And they should benefit from actually voting against the 10p in the first place, I think that’s an important point.
Very hard to call this one. I think the Tories are rightly favourites but they’re too short at the moment. If the Lib Dems can make a big impact, the anti-Labour vote may split.
Still, if the Tories can’t win this one now, when and where are they ever going to win a by-election?
102 SeanT can trump that with Calcutta - I actually found the most depressing place in India to be Faridabad, doesn’t have the poverty but has soulless mile after mile of Soviet style industrial park, smoke belching and smog, like all the worst of the Black Country and the North East from the 1950’s concentrated in one place on a hot dusty plain.
I’ve been to some horrible towns in my time. Not all of them in Britain.
The chain of depressed ex-mining communities, south west of Glasgow, takes some beating for suicide-inducing bleakness.
Some of the post-industrial towns in Picardy in France, and the abutting Belgian district are quite appalling. They were obliterated in both world wars, and of course you have the melancholy memory of all those dead soldiers underground.
Sumqayit in Azerbaijan is a winner, too. Life expectancy of about 50 due to pollution. I’ve been there. Yuk.
But probably the Belarussian town nearest Chernobyl - Gomel - is the worst I’ve visited. Lots of deformities. No birds singing. Nice.
119. The funniest place i have heard of seen in a video is a place called Banerress (not sure on the spelling) on the ganges in india. They had dead human bodies floating down the river and people burning bodies on the banks of the river on pyres of wood!
Mind you if you looked hard enough along the banks of most British cities you would find some of that going on 
89. That was my Wiki handiwork…
I should add that, despite losing the vote of confidence, and from his point of view, almost certainly the premiership as a result, one of the first things Jim Callaghan did was to sit down and write a personal letter to “Doc” Broughton, telling him not to worry or blame himself for missing the vote…
They really don’t make ‘em like that any more…
EDW @ 83 re SPotY — look East, young man, to the Olympic Games.
120. When i was a student the birds used to sing until i got legless and put a chicken vindaloo out for them! I never head or saw a bird again!
123
We only have Paula Rad’ and some diver bloke I’ve never heard of - not much is it? Lewis Hamiliton is fav. depsite driving a Mini Metro this season.
I see Fabio may be charged with perjury.
http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5iBMsiBcg-k-0FreL0bATen7mK-2w
121
Benares can look funny from the distances, for sure; yet it is not creepy at all.
It’s in fact an amazing city.
Once, I was goinf from Delhi to Orissa, by Benares (Varanassi), planing to sleep there only one night. I stayed one month.
Pinched from Boulton and Co..
DC’s letter to Gordo…
UPDATE: David Cameron has written to Gordon Brown asking for clarification on the issue:
Rt Hon Gordon Brown MP
Prime Minister
Wednesday, 7th May, 2008
I am writing following your comments on a referendum on Scottish independence at Prime Minister’s Questions today.
Wendy Alexander has said on this issue: “I don’t fear the verdict of the Scottish people”, “We shouldn’t delay it until the very fag end of this parliament”, “Bring it on”, and that “It’s time for them [the SNP] to put up or shut up”.
Today, you denied she had called for a referendum now.
Perhaps then you could explain what she meant by all this?
Anyone who listened to Wendy Alexander’s remarks could be in no doubt that she meant a referendum should be held - and it shouldn’t be delayed. To pretend otherwise is once again treating people like fools.
The Conservative Party north and south of the Border has been clear in opposing a referendum. We do not want to break up Britain.
In contrast, not only do you appear unable to lead your Party in any one direction on this issue of vital importance to the whole of the UK, but you also seem unable even to acknowledge what the Scottish Labour Leader is calling for.
So is there going to be a referendum or not?
I am copying this letter to Wendy Alexander in case she is able to assist.
David Cameron
124 - you are all heart, and so caring about the environment, you Tories!
97. Katowice is a fine city if you scratch beneath the surface. Some fine old industrial architecture and a smattering of great nightclubs.
121-Not Varanasi one of the holiest cities in Hinduism?
Does anyone know the inaudible one-liner uttered by someone at the outset of PMQs to which Dave replied “Quite”, causing much uproar?
127. MTF - Fraser Nelson on Spectator Coffee House has the unofficial view from Scottish Labour
Brown’s PMQs performance, claiming Wendy Alexander in Scotland does not want an independence referendum, has baffled Scottish Labour. I call my old contacts and am told a shocking, but not surprising story.
Wendy Alexander asked Brown a while ago to approve her plan to call for an early independence referendum. Like Madame Tussauds, she didn’t get a reply. He dithered and he delayed. She figured McBroon didn’t care any more (sob!) and went ahead regardless. Just like that Miliband speech a while ago, Brown only wakes up to its significance when he reads it in the papers. Then tries to stuff the genie back in the bottle today, claiming she didn’t say what she unfortunately said to the world.
Even Labour in Scotland are briefing against him, saying “have you ever known Gordon to make a decision like this quickly”. So the knives are out for him in Westminster and the dirks are out in Scotland - all over an utterly avoidable thing like this. And they say Boris is a joke.
It looks like some very exciteable money going on the Tories on C+N.I am not interested in these prices.
I think DC’s strategy of focusing on the 10p tax is misjudged. Clearly a lot of people feel strongly about it and there is benefit (in terms of persuading Labour voters to stay at home) in making it stay near the top of the agenda, but the Tories have not yet developed a convincing or confident narrative on tax and this approach just highlights that.
DC has made Crewe and Nantwich very high stakes, and I am not sure he needed to at this stage. The trend is there, the dye is cast, Labour are going to lose the next election. In the ordinary course it would soon be forgotten if the Tories failed to win a safe(ish) Labour seat at a bye-election. But by making it clear this is an acid test for the Tories being seen as a Govt in waiting, DC has turned C+N from a “great to win, little disappointing to lose” to a “good but necessary win, setback to lose”
127-It really is a government lead by a headless chicken.
In one week we’ve had:
-the 10p concession that never was
-a true mauling at the polls
-the bin tax u-turn that never was
-the referendum that no one talks about
Considering there was a Bank Holiday in between, that makes a crisis a (working) day. This really is starting to look like a case of “dead man walking!”.
112 Tamsin Dunwoody sustained the second highest swing against Labour at the Welsh Assembly elections 2007 — she lost a marginal seat, but she lost it badly.
O/T Switched today to Vodaphone’s plug and go broadband service, costing £15 per month - absolutely brilliant, use it anywhere with 3G coverage and it’s cheaper than BT.
Tamsin Dunwoody had pretty big swings against her in her two elections. The numbers suggest she’s not a barnstorming campaigner.
But someone came on here a few days ago to suggest some skullduggery in the 2007 campaign. I don’t recall the information being expanded upon.
I don’t think the odds are attractive now and will not be putting any more money on this race.
Working on Wales profiles, the boundary changes in Gwynedd were really not nice to Plaid. Question: will Arfon be ‘gained’ by Plaid Cymru or will the school reorganisation row in Gwynedd enable multi-election loser Mr Eaglestone to ‘hold’ the seat for Labour. It’s a knife-edge seat based on notional 2005 results.
Could be one to watch.
83 - It will be an Olympic medallist. I reckon the baby diver must have a shot if he wins a medal.
129 - to be fair my trip to Katowice was 16 years ago. It must have improved.
I spent a week in Bratislava in 1995. That was grim, but now is used as a city break desitnation.
130 It is! Dedicated to Lord Shiva… Bom bom!
—-
Obama +20.5 Percent
Clinton -20.5 Percent
This is named a spread; I understand; be what does it mean?
130 It is! Dedicated to Lord Shiva… Bom bom!
—-
Obama +20.5 Percent ; Clinton -20.5 Percent
This is named a spread; I understand; be what does it mean?
Well I am following my usual Betfair betting strategy and getting all green on everyone . If you want to bet on Conservatives some of the 1.47 is mine , the 3.8 on offer on Labour is mine and the 10 on offer on LibDems is mine . LibDems always offer the best value for your money LOL
114. Thanks for the reply Nick.
Its heartening to know that your keeping your mind off all Labour’s internal and external trauma’s by doing the valuable and important work that occupy’s an MP. The atmosphere isn’t as fevered at Westminster as one might think, then?
133. I agree with that - the Tories are going to have to come up with some kind of answer to the “Well what’s your alternative?” question if they are going to highlight that issue. Of course if they do come up with a response and it flies they are in. I also think the odds for them are not worth it and a bit unrealistic at the moment. I wouldn’t mind finding out the odds on Labour coming third though.
Depressing towns, I’d vote for Canton, Mississippi. Even in a poor state it stands out. It’s where they filmed A Time to Kill.
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 45% .. Clinton 46%
McCain 45% .. Obama 46%
Clinton 46% .. Obama 47%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107089/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Clinton-Both-Tie-McCain.aspx
It is nice to see you back here on PBC, Test. Indeed, it is always pleasant to discuss issues with rational and sensible Tories. I fear, from today’s postings, that they are a vanishing breed.
That said,… ehem…, I think you are wrong to see the recent local elections as giving a vote of confidence in Mr Cameron. He was not a candidate anywhere. And as far as I know, he has not expressed a view on the quality of the refuse collection (etc) in the district where I was campaigning.
In general, I think there were two factors which influenced the vote:
1. The quality of the local services provided by the local council.
2. The amount of money that the different parties were able to put into their campaigns.
I don’t think that Cameron was particularly relevant (I would add, neither in the local elections nor in general). However, he may become more relevant in C&N, where he appears to be making a bit of a fool of himself.
The labour majority just looks too big for me, it’s 165th on the tory target list or something? I can’t see that the money should be going on anything other than labour.
re: last night, pleasantly surprised by how Obama has come back and, fingers crossed, this may be a pointer towards the media not being the power that they report themselves to be. I was about 8% favourable towards Clinton for both my predictions, the Wright issue seemed to have upset the polls but clearly not as much as we were told.
Two things to take away, the American media’s attempts to frame the conversation are ceasing to pay dividends and US pollsters are still generally crap (although Zogby did much better this time). The CNN exit poll is also very accurate more times than not.
147. How exactly? Once incident with a bloke is the total extent of any problems so far, saying he’s making a bit of a fool of himself is exaggerating a fair bit.
Garden Spots Not - you guys should check out Lake Co, Indiana, which kept a number of your Brits up to the wee hours early this AM. In particular, Gary, East Chicago & environs.
Depressing places? Central Detroit by a mile.
139. ha, Bratislava is still a hellhole, and I’m going there tomorow!
Superdelegate Rep. Heath Shuler of NC has endorsed Hillary :
http://www.newsobserver.com/politics/story/1064123.html
106. I suspect no one knows.
A report from that “reliable” news service CBS denying there have been any talks about a “dream ticket” and her intention to fight on.
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/05/07/politics/fromtheroad/entry4077775.shtml
151: I nominate …… all of Nevada. The nuclear testing areas are probably the more cultured, charming bits.
Stoke certainly is near the top in the UK - and Stoke City have the third worst fans in the country after Milwall and Cardiff. I have to give the palm to Grangemouth where I spent a significant part of my early life.
None of you people have been to Newry then…..
151: Alternatively, how about Wyoming? Aside from the not irrational point that there must be a reason nobody lives in such a large state, anywhere responsible for Dick Cheney must be, by defintion, a total hellhole.
Northern Rock rears its ugly head again
FT: L&G to sue government over Rock nationalisation
Legal & General (L&G) has filed for legal action against the government over its dealings with Northern Rock, according to the financial services provider. The news comes just weeks after the UK shareholders association UKSA announced it would be fighting the government over shareholder losses incurred by the controversial nationalisation of the bank.
159. Where do you come from Andrew?
151. I don’t think you can really beat Detroit. A post-industrial crime-ridden city that has been in depression for more than two decades.
How about Middlesborough?
Or Hull?
In Hull they think optimism is an eye disease.