Can we now airbrush Hillary out of the picture
May 7th, 2008
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Is it time to start using our White House race logo?
With Obama’s decisive victory in North Carolina and Hillary’s victory in Indiana being by a fraction it’s starting to look as though the marathon fight for the Democratic nomination is nearing its end. As Obama spinners were saying overnight - they are now just 200 delegates from clinching it.
Add onto that the reports that she has had to make a further big loan to her campaign and you get a picture of the challenges she faces. The Clintons are moderately wealthy - but how long will others fund what increasingly looks like a doomed venture.
All the predictions ahead of the latest two primaries in Indiana and North Carolina were that she would lose the latter - but she needed to win the former by a big enough margin to convince the party establishment that she still had a case. She’s got a victory but is it big enough?
Her whole strategy was based on stretching this out until the August convention in August and then using the disputed Florida and Michigan delegation issues to bang her case home. That required, more than anything, momentum in the final phases of the primary campaign. The tightness of the Indiana result might just have sealed her fate.
It’s too early for the number crunching to have been completed but Obama is certain to have bettered his position in both the overall pledged delegate count and the popular vote.
So it’s increasingly looking like a McCain-Obama run-off and the serious scrutiny, for the first time, will be on the 72 year old with a furious temper. My 50/1 Obama bet is looking even better.
Mike Smithson
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On another topic, what will the broadcasters be using as a baseline for the next GE? Will it be notional 2005 plus by-elections and defections? Will a Con win in Grantham and Stamford be a Con gain and a Lib win in Dunfermline and West Fife be a Lib hold? Will they use the notional 2005 data for determining swings or the by-elections data?
This information will help us plan The Election Game.
Obama polled some 210,000 more votes than Clinton yesterday as well getter around a dozen more pledged delegates. So he pulls further ahead on the popular vote and the delegate count.
Hi Josh - my understanding is that the baseline is the previous GE result ignoring by-elections and defections.
In fact, Sarah Teather’s holding of Brent East in 2005 was described as a LD gain as Labour had won the previous GE there in 2001. So Grantham still counts as Tory, Crewe counts as Labour, Dunfermline as Labour…and Castle Point as Tory!
I can’t see Hillary giving up though. She will argue to herself that she ‘owes it’ to he supporters and workers. She hasn’t been beaten, just failed to win by enough.
I missed the last thread, but Mike’s comments at the start of it look about right. I’d expect this race to run through to Montana and South Dakota and no further.
Obama’s lead is not unassailable, but does require something very serious to turn up - something which four months of tough campaigning (never mind a year and a half’s pre-campaign) hasn’t brought about. I really can’t see that happening, but by the same token, I can’t see Hillary withdrawing while she’s still winning states, if only just. Indiana might have been a narrow win, a win by less than she needed, but it was still a win. Having fought on this long, it would be difficult to withdraw after getting that sort of support.
What is perhaps more likely is a wind-down of the Clinton campaign; a tacit recognition that she’s not going to win and a switch to more positive campaigning so as not to undermine Obama’s chances. I’d have thought the Democratic leadership would be happy enough with that outcome which will give Obama plenty of publicity in the media. Their main concern would be that the two would tear each other’s candidacies apart. If Clinton knows that barring accidents, she can’t win, there’s little purpose going even more negative and that risk can be averted.
With only six contests left to run, none of which are that big, there’s a good case to let everyone have their vote. OK, they’re mostly solid Republican states, but they don’t often get their moment in the limelight and a visit or two now might be remembered come November, especially in Oregon - the one marginal state left to vote.
If I had to predict when Clinton’s concession will come, I’d say it will be somwhere around 6th June.
I would have thought Obama and Clinton are fast becoming McCain’s biggest assests. The American public must be utterly fed up with the sight of their faces and sound of their voices.
On a related note, why is McCain polling so poorly in his primaries? He’s the only serious candidate left, he’s assured of the nomination, yet he failed to get 80% in either primary yesterday.
Is it that Republicans are mostly not that bothered about a coronation-in-progress, but those with a gripe feel ok to vent their feelings by voting for a different candidate? It won’t make any difference to the outcome at the convention, but it doesn’t look like a good sign.
Casino Royale
I don’t know if anyone answered your question about the top hat and tails guy with Cameron [haven’t been able to read through all the comments], but he was a Labour Party prat/prank. SOME news reports made that clear.
Hillary’s the Black Knight out of Monty Python. She won’t pull out, and West Virginia and Kentucky will give her a boost.
Yes, her strategy does depend on getting Michigan and Florida reinstated, but there’s a second string to her bow. The hope that something, anything, may turn up. The Rev Wright already has. And there is still the Rezko trial. And William Avery.
At some point, she hopes, Obama may just seem too big a liability, forcing the superdelegates to jump to her.
6. You’ve answered your question, I think.
9. Just because I’ve answered it doesn’t mean the answer’s right
. I wondered if there was something else I might be missing.
8 Hillary is making no public appearences today. Maybe she is just tired and re-charging the batteries for her continued windmill-tilting campaign. Or just maybe she is testing the waters with her staff, her backers, Bill - and writing her concession speech….
Stay tuned for an important announcement.
I mean, it sounds very plausible.
BTW, here’s a great idea from Labour Home. I hope Labour go for it.
http://www.labourhome.org/story/2008/5/5/13377/16471
Perfect results from last night: I put my winnings from Boris on Hilary to win Indiana AND the +16% handicap that Ladbrokes were offering on N. Carolina, although at 1/7 for each of the latter, the odds were fairly porr considering Hilary’s narrow sqeak home in IN.
Now just waiting for her to drop out of the race as I have a ’sell’ position with her on Sporting Index at 5-6.5
Winning money on her and seeing her in difficulty is like winning twice over!
A shooting in the Kings Road! Boris has only been Mayor for five minutes and crime is going up-market already!
Apologies if I have gone O/T too early.
Time to airbrush Alistair Darling out if this proposal becomes law.
The government has been urged not to use an increase in the minimum wage to force employers into compensating workers for the abolition of the 10p income tax rate.
The warning came from the Forum of Private Business (FPB).
The Chancellor, Alistair Darling and Business Secretary, John Hutton have asked the Low Pay Commission (LPC) to assess changes to the minimum wage as a possible way of compensating those low paid workers affected by the scrapping of the 10p rate, the FPB said.
However, the FPB argued that employers should not be expected to make up shortfalls in the government’s policies on personal taxation.
An increase in the national minimum wage could see smaller businesses raising prices, a move that, in turn, could lead to job losses.
Phil Orford, the FPB’s chief executive, said: “Any notion that the UK’s businesses should be required to pick up the tab for the government’s hashed personal taxation policies is totally ludicrous.”
Mr Orford added: “This is not even a stealth tax; it is a blatant attempt to retain revenues generated by the removal of the 10p personal taxation rate by forcing businesses to bear the financial burden through increases in the minimum wage. We cannot quite believe that it is being put forward as a serious solution.”
12
But what if an independent Scotland moves to the Euro?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/04/scotland.scotland
16 That would make no difference to the rest of us, surely?
16 - and, on a similar vein (just for you, Stuart):
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/wendy-alexander-goes-to-toilet-by-herself-20080507931/
12. There have been a few letters here and there in the press by European Movement stooges suggesting similar things of late. It just shows how totally in thrall to the EU hierarchy Labour are. Once, the left took its orders from Moscow, now it’s Brussels.
17
I think it would have a considerable affect.
How the Dail mash sees Boris’s election.
http://tinyurl.com/6mnwl8
Soon we will get the usual every-4-years newspaper cartoons showing Obama standing triumphantly on the summit of a small hill, with a big November mountain looming in the background.
What are the current Dem nominee betfair prices?
Ta guys!
‘PM leaves Alexander to go it alone on independence referendum’
- “When it was suggested this reply, rather than an endorsement of Ms Alexander’s view, was a distancing from it, [Mr Brown’s] spokesman repeated the same answer. He did so several times, replying on one occasion: “He thinks the Labour Party in Scotland speaks for the Labour Party in Scotland.”
Asked when the PM knew about Ms Alexander’s new position, the spokesman said it was “a matter for her” but Mr Brown obviously spoke to his Labour colleagues, including the Scottish leader, “all the time”.
But the SNP responded by welcoming Labour to the fold of those who want Scots to decide on a new constitutional settlement.
“It would now be untenable to do a U-turn on a U-turn when that bill comes forward,” said an aide to the First Minister, who said the principle of trusting the people was more important than arguments about timing.
“It now looks as if it’s practically impossible for Wendy Alexander to do other than support the bill the government will bring forward to have a referendum in 2010,” said the Salmond aide.”
http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.2251191.0.PM_leaves_Alexander_to_go_it_alone_on_independence_referendum.php
[19] If George Galloway sees that post, he’ll sue!
22. OB 1.17 HC 7
24. Haha very good. But seriously, what is it about the British left that makes them latch on to one authoritarian foreign master after another? Revolutionary France, Moscow, the EU, and for some of the wilder elements militant Islam. Two hundred years of lining up with the enemies of Britain.
I’m looking forward to Jack W gleefully giving us the latest on the Hillary Deathwatch!
“YES WE CAN” !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
27 MM.
19 “Once, the left took its orders from Moscow”
Look, London is already run by someone called Boris. What more do they want?
Can we not have another thread hijacked by the EU?
Zogby was on the radio this morning, he suggested that Obama had around 30 SDs ready to endorse over the next few days. I’m not sure how true that is, but it might be enough to put Clinton out for the count.
Obama and working class whites; in November the question is not who can win them over best, Clinton or Obama, but who can win them over best, McCain or Obama. I haven’t seen much from McCain that says he can win them over other than his race, it’ll be the economy and healthcare that could win them over and McCain has nothing on those issues.
Labour seem to has collectively gone completely mental.
I know things are bad for them but who thell thought “I know! The disfafected British public will fall in love with us again if we perform a W-turn on rubbish tax, try to make business take the financial fall out for our income tax balls-up and scrap the pound! Oh, and to guarantee unlimited success, we’ll risk breaking up the union!”
32. And send some goons in top hat and tails to a bye election..
32. Please let’s not have yet another thread hijacked by things Labour supporters don’t want to talk about.
Firstly congratulations to PBers who stayed the course …. even as all my computers didn’t !!!
The trial run of ARSE’s US affiliate - BUTT was a triumph.
…. our prediction of Obama +12 in NC and IN as TCTC was a very decent showing and I’m sure you’ll all be looking forward to seeing a lot more of my American cousin’s BUTT.
33 - Yes playing the ‘toff’card when you have invoked the hereditary principal in your selection battle is hardly the cleverest wheeze that they have ever come up with.
Anyone got the latest delegate totals for IN and NC ?
23
Labour are worried about their Scottish vote; what happens in the next general if they all vote SNP? They have to force the issue now, it’s their only hope of keeping a Scottish Labour Party from oblivion. And the thought that G. Brown knows/has no say in Ms Alexanders ploy is ridiculous.
I would have thought that Labour England might be better concentrating for once on how to govern the country to the benefit of the country, not itself. Its only concern, and this is immediately related to the Scottish business, is for its own preservation. But then that is all this government has ever done, its only reason for being to keep the tories out. Brown and his mob say they will be going through Tory policies with a fine toothed comb, their job is to govern and maybe if they came up with some policies of their own for a change they might achieve something at least.
[26] Dunno. But whatever it is, it’s been going on for a very long time. In the 16th century religious radicals looked to Geneva for solutions. Trouble with lefties is, they just don’t hate foreigners
Going off topic - but hoping to clear up a little spat on earlier threads:
“Now it can be told” time, I guess. I did over 11 hours’ non-stop phone canvassing at Labour HQ today with a roomful of similar zealots, and I guess spoke to around 700 voters in Brentford, Hounslow, Hays & Harlington, Feltham and a bit of Bermondsey.
by Nick Palmer MP May 1st, 2008 at 11:28 pm
“306: you dreamed it, old boy. I did no canvassing whatever in London, so I never met any cockney voters, enthusiastic or otherwise. …. Like I said yesterday to someone else trying the same line, people here have selective memories.
by Nick Palmer MP May 7th, 2008 at 1:31 am
Compare and contrast.
Prepare for pedantic tirade that
a. “phone canvassing” and “canvassing” are NOT, NOT, NOT the same thing and
b. anyway it is just a summer storm and
c. the poor will NOT, NOT, NOT be affected, and
d. honestly, trust me - I’m a Doctor”
32. I have just blogged on this - how can the Labour party now defend refusing the British a say on the EU constitution whilst giving the Scots a say on independence?
Its a barking mad strategy which has just re-opened all the suspicions south of the border that we English are being ‘ruled’ by a Scottish elite.
More bad politics from our Scottish PM.
5/6: Agree with everything David Herdson says. In particular, I think that there is not enough at stake in the remaining primaries for anyone to get excited, and the Democrats could reasonably feel that it’s good to let everyone have their say - it feels, well, democratic. Obama now just has to avoid a sudden disaster that would make it obvious that he can’t win, in which case the supers can pull the plug any time up to the convention - another Pastor Wright-type issue could do it, but if it were going to happen it probably would have by now.
Is Rik around? I hear tell of a defection of a Councillor on Reading Borough Council. This is still at the gossip stage - more details needed.
40: yawn, mirthios, it was perfectly clear from my report from the knockup that it was a knock-up and in addition the comments made no claims of cockney enthusiasm or anything else positive - various people commented on its candour and Sean Fear among others agreed with its main conclusions. You can make something of my phrase ‘phone canvassing’ if you like - I should have said ‘phone knock-up’, but nobody reading it in good faith would have been in any doubt.
Betfair dont seem to have paid out on Indiana yet.
33. Oh they didn’t! The entire toff debacle has actually strengthened Cameron over the last few months, as people don’t see politics that way anymore. The toff insults have just made labour look silly.
“Politico” on CBS’s near Dewey moment in Indiana :
http://www.politico.com/blogs/michaelcalderone/0508/As_results_trickle_in_CBS_remains_silent.html
45 - It is competing with a lot of other things making Labour look silly.
47. This is true, however the labour strategy of attacking Cameron as a toff has so far failed, as proved by the local election results and the polls. Continuing to attack him as a toff, and even having people wearing top hat and tails, comes off as being rather pathetic and desperate.
Very exciting reading through the thread on Indiana. I stayed up until about 3.30 am and went to bed with £34 to win on Obama at around 13/1. Reading the thread it certainly looked like he was going to do it at one point.
I think Hillary has to throw in the towel now, or quite soon, else she moves from plucky resilient fighter to ridiculous, sore and divisive loser.
23. sheepdip. I find it hard to believe Brown has had no input into Wendy Alexander’s position on a referendum. If true it demonstrates a severe lack of respect for him and lack of leadership by him, or else a monumental cock-up. If false then he is back to the same ridiculous attempt to disassociate himself with difficult decisions by denying involvement or intent that we have previously witnessed with the toppling of Tony Blair, the election that never was, the signing of the Lisbon treaty, the attendance at the Olympics opening ceremony….
48 - Oh I’m relaxed about them dressing up, after all there were Conservatives dressing up as Brown Bottles. I think it is the kind of high jinks that make politics a bit more fun. The difference being that the strategy underlying it is ineffective in one instance and highly effective in the other.
48 The Toff stuff is a dog whistle to the core voter; won’t affect the switchers or the 1997 Blair captures. If Boris makes a good fist of the Mayoralty - and so far it looks good - then even the Toff factor will disappear.
43. But given your record Nick, it’s understandable people might not read it in good faith. You’ve now been caught out several times like this. Be careful or your internet-spinner-in-chief post might be under threat…
44. Betfair haven’t paid out on Italy/Berlusconi yet!! It’s a bit of a sore point of mine.
On Topic: I’ve heard this story FAR TOO MANY times to believe it. Hillary isn’t out until the fat lady sings - and the fat lady won’t sing until the convention is signed and sealed.
50. True. the toff thing hasn’t worked and makes labour look daft, the bottler worked, although having those people dressed as bottle was a bit OTT it has helped promote the image.
51. Fully agree about Boris. I was in London yesterday and it all seemed fine. It was sunny actually. If this is how Tory Britain is going to look, count me in.
51. “The Toff stuff is a dog whistle to the core voter;”
whats that - about 20% of the country ?
55 - Depends which way you spin it - in our office we were joking about starting a Boris out campaign - 3 people have had trouble getting to work this week, there’s a shooting in the Kings Road of all places - clearly the buses aren’t working, and crime is spreading…
12. HAHAHA!
Are they nuts?!?!
With the way Labour are going, they’d be lucky to get more than 10% of the vote in favour!!
Upside is, it’d further increase their unpopularity and give even more momentum to Cameron.
Do it. DO IT!!
55 - A friend of mine was rather disappointed that upon the election of Boris London wasn’t immediately transported back to the era of the caveman. He said it rather spoilt his anticiaption of Polly Toynbee being repeatedly hit with a club, and dragged around by her hair!
Yes, worrying news about the shooting in Kings Road. I’m sure my conservative brethren will agree though that it’s simply unfair to blame everything that goes wrong on the Mayor. (Is that right? Do we call each other brethren?)
53. Casino. Before last night’s results, the consensus was that for Hillary to “change the game” she needed to at least win Indiana comfortably AND hold down Obama’s lead in NC to single figures. She failed conclusively in both aims.
She may soldier on a bit longer but this was her last realistic chance. It went almost as well for Obama as he could have hoped and almost as badly for Hillary as she would have feared.
There really should be a prize for the consistently poor Matthew JCG Partridge (”the Iraq War is a Vote-Winner”)
“Clinton seems to be on track for about +10 in Indiana ” (MJCG Partridge, last night)
If Matthew actually put money on his predictions, I guess he’d be in the line for the soup-kitchens now.
Matthew, please spend some time thinking why all your predictions are consistently & badly wrong. And then post your answer on pb.com.
57 Lennon, on the other hand, since Boris was elected we have had unbroken sunshine in London. What did Cameron say “Let the sun shine in”? Well bugger me, once the Tories were elected, it did!
37 Ghost. Depending on how the Congressional Districts fall it’s looking like Obama had a net gain of 12 delegates on the night and added 210K to his PV lead.
64. Thanks…
Big move on the night 1.35 > 1.17 = juicy
PMQ’s today? Obviously Cameron will wipe the floor with GB today, but with what subject will he start?
Actually in the past Dave has managed to miss open goals - but surely even he will be able to score today.
64. Jack W. I missed the original reference to BUTT. What does it stand for and are you or your BUTT now calling the nomination for Obama?
61. No. Obama could have won Indiana by 5-6% and NC by approaching 20% - THAT would have been as good as could be hoped for!!
Sorry St.John, I’ve just heard this too many times for it to be believable now.
Hillary won’t drop out unless she drops dead. You have to remember the size of her ego, her self belief, her megalomania…
This woman WILL NOT QUIT.
63. Especially for Marquee Mark …. the ‘Hillary Deathwatch’ sinks to 4.2% !!!
http://www.slate.com/id/2190778/
Casino - I think Betfair are waiting until he’s actually confirmed as PM by Parliament - although I bet Paddy Power would have paid out by now….
66 - I suspect he might start on Scotland.
67 stjohn. I’ve been calling the nomination for Obama for weeks !!
BUTT stands for …. come on folks, give it a stab ?!!?
71 - that has to be the favourite, looking forward, shows Brown as a control freak without the control, shows the chaos in Labour, on a subject that Brown cannot dismiss as lightweight.
As second favourite, a 10p tax question, seeking to tie this into his idea of making Crewe & Nantwich a referendum on that.
As a further alternative, a Boris-related question, seeking confirmation in some way that the Government will not seek to sabotage his mandate (eg in relation to police matters).
71 Surely its scotland, its got everything going for it. dishonesty, dithering, policy for purely selfish reasons, referendums now back in vogue, destruction of the Union………. its a win win win situation, but then so is every other topic i suppose.
70. Thanks.
When might that be?
I think Hillary has to throw in the towel now, or quite soon, else she moves from plucky resilient fighter to ridiculous, sore and divisive loser.
That transition happened some time ago. Clinton changed from simply wanting her opponent to crash and burn to actively attempting to destroy Obama - fanning the J Wright flames and digging for more. She is now well into the territory where she is putting herself above the party.
As for “spoof poster” Matthew JCG Partridge - the guy is pure comedy!
Hillary drops ten points on the Iowa Exchanges overnight :
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Nomination08_quotes.html
It’s a radical idea, but perhaps Cameron should ask a question to which the public actually wants the answer. Tax would probably be it, in that case.
Has there been any news on the number of spoilt ballot papers in London, or the levels of disqualified postal votes in this and the council elections?
If a couple of men with whippets appeared at the arrival of Tasmin D. in Crewe, would it be seen as a cunning stunt? I was wondering how it was possible to select a candidate for this by-election without drawing up a list of suitable applicants. Does anyone here know if there were other candidates for this post? Was it an all women short list, and was the selection really on merit?
In any case her father Dr John Dunwoody was a surgeon, who sat in the House of Commons as an MP from 1966-70. Her maternal grandfather successfully comitted purjury at a libel trial in 1957, after the magazine had claimed that Morgan Phillips, Nye Bevan and Dick Crossman were over tired and emotional.
74 - Yes plus he can paint Labour as split, sinking and fighting each other. Did he know? Does he support it? If a Referendum in Scotland is ok, why not one on Europe? If the Scottish Leader can change her position on a referendum, will he change his on 10p? The possibilities are endless.
69 Deathwatch - from our Bedside Correspondent!
We’re losing her…..
72.
Badly Unrepresentative Trajectory Tracker
Bluestocking Ubermodernisers Tell Tales
BUTT - Bill Under The Thumb?
81 MM. Hillary’s sinking faster than one of Roger’s predictions !!
63 - indeed, it’s been pretty warm and sunny everywhere since the Tory landslide on Thursday. No more of that dank April weather, the late snows etc, the never-ending New Labour winter is finally coming a conclusion.
I can even see Norman Lamont’s green shoots of recovery starting to appear…
78 whats the point if he cant give a straight answer to frank field he is unlikely to give one cameron
79 The selection was open to all members of the parliamentary panel.
85 Tories are now messianic. I wonder where they got that from.
Cameron is surely going to start with a sensible, statesmanlike question on humanitarian relief to Burma - before moving on to “other matters”…
So are the Tories brave enough to have an election in Henley - No I thought not!
84 Speaking of Roger - the silence is deafening!
85 MM. It was such a nice spring day and then the creature from the ‘Black Wednesday Lagoon’ breaks water !!
88 - Yes true enough.
85 I can see Nick Palmer’s line already - “Tories cause global warming….”
72. Born under Terrible Thatcher? Big up the Tories? Bit ugly, Telford town?
72 - BUTT - Biased Unscientific Tendency Tracer?
90. MM. I hope Roger is OK.
89. Yes they are - as soon as GB calls one
British Underpinned Tally Totaliser?
I’m working on my Wales constituency profiles. So far I have Aberavon as a Labour hold and Aberconwy as a Tory gain. I’m brave like that with my predictions
I’m also going to buy some beer with my Hillary wins from last night to help bring my stress levels down after nearly having a coronary as Gary votes threatened to push Obama over the top.
96 Someone should take his belt and shoelaces….
96. Perhaps Roger is ‘ill’ and we will be saying farewell to him for a while, too - only to see him stage a melodramatic return a ferw months hence.
BUTT - Broken Union Trend Tracker?
96. Perhaps Roger is ‘ill’ and we will be saying farewell to him for a while, too - only to see him stage a melodramatic return a few months hence.
85. Bob Sykes. Boris is Aslan and I claim my £5m
48. I agree – it’s a pathetic strategy and I speak as one from the red corner. Labour has got to overhaul its policies and explain what it’s for. It can start by canning this ludicrous idea of reclassifying cannabis. If this happens, for the first time in my life I might vote against Labour, and if they have lost me, they are in deep trouble. Policies should be made on science and rational advice, not to please the reactionary tabloids.
Policies should be made on science and rational advice, not to please the reactionary tabloids
Have you been living under stone these past ten years?
105 It is amazing isn’t that somehow that the post-elections announcements have actually made the situation worse for Labour
isn’t it,
Joe Sudbay of AmericaBlog reports that top Hillary supporter Wesley Clark has called on her to quit the race :
http://www.americablog.com/2008/05/breaking-wesley-clark-reportedly-called.html
To the tune of “The Stranglers - Golden Brown” :
*Synth Harpiscord Intro*
Gordon Brown, taxes the poor..
Through the ages, he’s taking more…
(any suggestions for the rest of the verse?)
107 - not on GB’s recent form, no…
106/7. Maybe I have been living under a stone, but the national minimum wage, tax credits, and the progress against child poverty have been real Labour successes. But some of the recent developments, the 42-day stuff, and the 10p tax debacle, and this gathering storm over grass, will, as you say, 107, actually make things worse for Labour. They seem to be actively seeking to destroy their own election winning coalition by pissing off both their core vote (10p tax rate) and urban liberals (42-day, grass). If they carry on like this, they deserve to lose the next election. That said, Cameron has failed to commit to restoring the 10p tax rate and is equally useless on drugs policy, which is a complete disaster.
107 It is as if they think the problem is people haven’t heard their policies not the policies themselves.
112 - I did squirm at the BBC News last night showing DC’s confrontation with the voter in Crewe over restoring the 10p band. No doubt it was all set up by Labour (or the Lib Dems), but it didn’t reflect well, even if it is an impossible question for DC to answer right now.
It will be asked time and time again in the brief campaign in C&N i expect.
108. Is it? why?
112. Funnily enough I seem to have read that list ‘national minimum wage, tax credits, and the progress against child poverty’ several times in recent days, recited parrot-fashion by various Labour spinners and sycophants in the media and on blogs. Do you chaps get a regular weekly cheat-sheet to write from?
110:
“Gordon Brown, useless Prime Minister.
Gordon Brown, when will he go?
Always around, I’m sick of this clown.
Feck off to Fife, Gordon Brown”
OT: Officially inflation in Zimbabwe is at 165,000%.
Or, using Gordon’s stats: 6.7%.
I do hope PMQs is a bloodbath. Be interesting to see Cleggnut attack the Tories again.
Cameron could probably use 15 questions today and still have enough material to spare.
110 - Casino, how about:
…biting his nails, losing South Wales,
always a frown, he’s Gordon Brown…
117 - no, we don’t want a bloodbath. Don’t forget the No 1 Tory priority right now is to KEEP GB in No 10 for the next 2 years…
Swapping Gordon Brown now for some other lame duck wont make any difference at all. Does anyone seriously think the Tories would have suddenly recovered if they had replaced Major in 1995 after the disastrous locals? No, of course they dont.
There is a fundamental misunderstanding when politicians ask for thanks and credit for past “successes”.
1) People vote with the future in mind not the past. A solid record is important, but few are ever going to vote out of gratitude especially if future plans are unclear.
2) Even if a policy was successful. True credit lies with the tax-payer who funded it. Ministers are important catalysts, but it’s the public who deserve the big thanks for going out to work, paying tax etc etc. The fact that schools have been rebuilt is to the credit of the UK taxpayer not the govt.
119 - No its not. The number one Tory priority right is to keep on kicking Labour while they’re down. Kick, kick, kick and never stop until election day 2010 leaving a battered, humiliated and lifeless corpse of a party behind.
That is what Blair and Labour did to us in the nineties and its no more than this government deserves. In 1995 Blair never said “you know I’ve come far enough, better ease off the pressure on the Tories”.
120 No but a few dozen more Tory MPs may have held on
LOL @118
I thought Cameron ws trying to turn the C&N byelection into a kind of referendum on the 10p tax band. Obviously he is going to be asked time and time again precisely what the Tories would do. And he has no idea.
So it is algo going to be a kind of referendum on Cameron’s leadership.
C&N
Conservatives 1/2
Labour 9/4
Liberal Democrats 5/1
Ladbrokes offering better odds on cons.?
“Policies should be made on science and rational advice, not to please the reactionary tabloids”
In Plato’s Republic, maybe.
122 - quite right so far as tactics are concerned, and when you put that in conjunction with 120, the need for the Tories to be utterly merciless is quite clear.
Labour need a major rethink. The talk about scrapping “pay as you throw” illustrates only that they completely underestimate what is needed. With a plan such as the one Jonathan outlined a couple of weeks ago, they would stand a faint chance. Without such a plan, they are sunk, and the waves are closing over them.
123 A very fair point.
Cameron’s got to go on the complete shambles of Wendy Alexander calling for a referendum on Scottish independence without even bothering to discuss it with Gordon Brown. Tie it into the rebellion over the 10p tax band and 42 days and Labour’s election drubbing, and say that, effectively, the Prime Minister has lost all credability and authority.
EDW @125
Glad I got my money on at 4/7! That said, you would think after 25+ years without a Con gain from Lab at a by-election they might be slightly more generous! Interesting that the Liberals are not even in 2nd place.
127. Really? Why exactly? The local election successes have proved his style has traction with the voting public, one local election won’t change that. the Labour tactic will be to try and make it about Cameron, however everything else they’ve tried so far has flopped.
Jack. Your BUTT sweeps all before it! Congrats.
PMQs should be interesting.
P&K is finding some of the postings here tasteless and triumphalist. Come on everyone stick to facts rather than what you hope.
127 Tressage, some Tory posters (mirthios) have been gloating and that’s quite wrong. But the referendum on Cameron’s leadership has been held and won. C&N would be very nice as a cherry on top, but at this point a loss in a Labour seat with the dead MP’s daughter as candidate and a 7k plus majority wouldn’t mean a thing.
Cameron took Southampton and Bury, 44% of the vote, London, Nuneaton, Harlow…
134 - If they make it a referendum on Cameron then they’re utterly bonkers.
Remember Smithson’s original rule that the more Cameron was in the media, the better the Tories polled …
117. Are you incapable of accepting that people have a different view on life to yourself? Many Labour supporters see these as real achievements. I certainly do. What I do not see as achievements are the socially illiberal policies coming out of the Home Office, which in my view will alienate urban affluentials. Why are you always so accusing and adversarial? This is a political betting site, not the despatch box. Are you not keen to here from your political opponents telling you why they think the game is up?
133
Shadsy from Ladbrokes came on here yesterday but can’t remember what odds he opened up at. I think he has moved the cons. down a fair bit since.
Anyone remember his opening shout?
134. Tressage is right (for once)..if Davey C is going to make the 10p cock up at the centre of the camapaign, he has got to come up with a sensible answer to the question of what he would do.
One obvious answer is that it is a mess and would require detailed access to treasury data to give a definitive answer and then to remind people the Conservatives would not have been so incompetent to have created the mess in the first place.
However there has to be something more coherent and proactive than that. If there is nothing else, then they really should not have put it at the heart of the campaign…I was a little concerned reading Cameron’s comments from yesterday about this and I am not feeling happier about it today.
Making C & N a referendum on McSporran himself seems to me to be a much safer strategy.
139 I know how you feel. While that’s all good stuff, I fear we need to find something fresh to say. Does anyone else want to hit the telly when you hear the phrase “tough decisions”?
A couple of unanswered questions by the opposition will not change the basic fact that elections are always basically about the sitting government.
142 No, it’s “hard working families” and “listen(ing)” that get me throwing things.
144 Thinking about it, Cameron doesn’t yet have a (hackneyed) personal catchphrase. At least I can’t think of one. Interesting I think, might explain why he is a successful communicator - it’s a fresh sounding approach.
Blair had toc&totcoc by now.
144 - I’m getting quite fed up with Gordon’s Proclaimer’s “When I wake up” riff.
142. How about ‘public ownership of the means of production, distribution, and exchange’?
140 - I think the Cons started at 4/5 with Ladbrokes. That’s when I got on anyway.
EDW @ 140
He gave Cons at 4/5 yesterday, I immediately went to the Ladbrokes site and saw the price had already tightend to 4/7, so I made an impulse purchase, after last week only getting 1/3 on Boris when I could have got 4/6 just 24 hours earlier.
147 Sorry, Harry, I don’t know that one - I haven’t heard it for years.
142. Brown has a collection of stock phrases that he’s been using for years. Add fiscal responsibility, long term decisions, not for the few but for all…… but we’ve known this for years. Why could so many in the Labour Party not see this last summer?
So we’ve got PMQs coming up, so I’ll shortly leave this board as it’s my least favourite time of the week. The debate doesn’t matter, the soundbites do, Brown doesn’t answer the questions, Cameron just reads from a pre-prepared script. What is the point of it?
[123] So you don’t think Tory governments ought to claim any credit for the things they do?
Actually, I suspect Sean Fear doesn’t. Still, he needn’t worry: there was a chap in the Grauniad praising Octavia Hill for opposing State old Age Pensions. (Well, he didn’t actually praise her for that, but he chose both to mention it and to praise her in general terms…)
I have to presume that Hillary still wants to be President. And, knowing that she gave this election away, she will want to make sure she leaves this race primed for the next one.
So she won’t walk away now and risk being branded a loser. Instead, she’ll keep going until she gets seemingly denied - if we don’t fully seat Mich and Fla - so that she can exit the race still maintaining that she should have won, was the better candidate, etc. And then she’ll push really hard for Barack so as not to appear like she substantially damaged her party.
That way, she can run in four years on the ‘I told you so’ campaign or in eight years on the ‘listen, it’s my turn’ campaign.
150. OK - ‘unilateral nuclear disarmament’?
148
4/5, good hit. I wouldn’t lay that off on BF, not yet anyway.
Am looking at SPIN Con. GE seats at 334-340 as Spreadfair go 340-344, if Cons. come in at C&N with any win then the spread should move towards 350?
A poll would be nice.
As for a referendum on Cameron, the LDs are doing a much better job of attacking the Tories in the last couple of months than Labour! They also had better results against the Tories than Labour.
Back in 1997-2001 the LDs were better at opposition that the Tories, and so were labelled “The effective opposition”. Now they are better at opposing the Tories than the govt, so does that make them “The effective opposition-opposition”? Or does that double-negative make them “The effective Government”??
141 I agree that there is a risk in going in on the 10p rate without making clear our alternative (which is probably going to come through an increase the personal allowance, which has withered on the vine under Labour).
Cameron isn’t going to be able to make any promises on tax so there are challenges which last nights scenes reflected; on balance though I believe it’s a risk worth taking for us.
The strategy is more to highlight just how far adrift from any ideology Labour have become than suggest we have the answers. The time will come for that, but not yet.
156. Who labelled them the effective opposition? And what exactly did they manage to oppose that the tories didn’t?
152 Wise governments would acknowledge the contribution of others when things go right. It would reflect very well on them. Much better than the “you have me to thank” and “we’re great because …” approach that only exists in politics.
Can you imagine this transparent self promotion winning credibility in any other sphere?
‘Is it time to start using our White House race logo?’
Ambiguous wording, especially with that pic.
It’s official - Labour Councllor in Reading leaves the party to go independent.
http://www.cllrtonyjones.com/
See Jane Griffith’s Blog for more details.
156 - I think the Lib Dems claimed to be the “real opposition”.
159. Can you imagine this transparent self promotion winning credibility in any other sphere?
What a sheltered life you appear to have led. Offices across the country are stuffed with people whose main talent is self promotion and taking credit for the work of others.
162. They are the real opposition to the Conservatives - Labour are rubbish at it..
144 - I want to know what the government will do for lazy families - they always get forgotten - who’s speaking for them?
163 Yes, but they’re probably a bit more subtle about it than the govt.
166. Not really. Parliament reflects society rather accurately in this respect.
And Cameron went on Scotland!
Barbara Cartland ha-ha-ha. Quote of the day.
zzzzzzz
146. Gordon as the Proclaimers:
“And I would tax 5 million poor
And I would tax 5 million more
Just to be the man who cut the basic rate
Of tax by 2p more”
171 -
Clegg: “Not good enough”
He should stop being so introspective…
173 handbags at dawn
171
Spooky, isn’t the next verse “when I wake up”? another one of Gordon’s phrase
Win for Cameron at PMQ’s although Cammies sou