Obama takes NC, Hillary leads in IN
May 7th, 2008Indiana - 44% counted - Clinton leads 56-44
North Carolina - called for Obama, leads 64-34, 11% counted
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Indiana - 44% counted - Clinton leads 56-44
North Carolina - called for Obama, leads 64-34, 11% counted
Half results in now, 55-45 to HC.
This is looking a very good night for Obama. A big NC win and small narrow IN loss (and he might even sneak it). Clinton will carry on but I expect SDs to start flocking.
North Carolina Primary
Based on early returns, Obama is winning the Tidewater and Piedmont, while Clinton is way ahead in the Mountains.
However, note that WAUTAUGA (Booneville) way up in the Appalachians on the Tennessee border, is giving Obama 60% with 30% of pcts reporting. Note this is the home of Appalachian State University.
obama has come from 42% to 45% in the last 30mins or so in Indiana - how far might this little run carry on? Within 2-3% would be a great result for him, no?
It looks like Clinton’s win in Indiana is going to be about 5 points - which would mean superdelegates seriously come out for Obama. I suspect the wrapping up process may begin, even if Clinton hangs on until June.
2 - With suggestions that she’s been loaning herself money again.
Missed the thread change, but replied to you at the end of the last one, seanT. Not really worth repeating here on a US primary night.
I’d guess Clinton by 8 in IN, Obama by lots in NC - NC seems to be getting the urban results first, unlike IN, so it should tighten from the current 30% blowout, but still looks very convincing. Clinton’s win probably just enough to keep going and hope for a miracle (Kieran scenario 2a).
2 - You may be right. Have to see how the Calumet Region (Lake-Porter-LaPorte) performs.
2. The NC result is undoubtedly the more critical Kieran.
Whilst i expect Clinton to win IN the NC gap is central to where the narrative goes next. Despite Clinton’s effort it looks so far as if Obama is got his double digits which suggests a headache for Clinton overall.
She needs to keep it to 10% or under and so far it doesnt look like she will.
54-46
Squeaky bum time for HC’s 1.02 backers?
Clinton margin in IN now fallen to 8% with 52% counted according to CNN
It appears that CBS called Indiana for Hillary on the basis of their exit poll alone !!
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/05/06/politics/main4073609.shtml
Population density map for those looking at undeclared counties.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Indiana_population_map.png
7. I was teasing, Nick. Just a little satire, late of an evening. But I don’t blame you guys for lacking a sense of humour, after the kicking you have received. I remember being somewhat po-faced myself, when the right was in panicky retreat in the late 90s.
But just think, when you are hurled into opposition in 2010, for a generation or more, you will have lots more time to cultivate an ironic and detached perspective on triumph and disaster, those twin imposters.
Be of good cheer.
7. Since when did these three scenarios become Kieran’s? ;-p
15 - He he
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/1875/3280/en/summary.html
The NC sos site seems to have different and more results than CNN.
15 Socrates. Kieran has scenarios like I have ARSE !!
Hillary will hold on to lead in Indiana but it may well narrow as there are some Obama districts to come in. The margin is important in North Carolina - it is the biggest remaining state and it could put any “popular vote” argument from Hillary out of reach if he wins North Carolina by about 15%. To have any chance at all on persuading superdelegates, she needs a reasonable popular vote argument for them to hang their hats on.
Looks like curtains for Clinton. She couldn’t pull an upset in NC and she doesn’t look like getting a double digit victory in Indiana. Sure she will win Kentucky and West Virginia but it won’t be enough and her campaigning will run out of steam and Obama will win the last four (Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota) as he is favoured to. The superdelegates realizing this will jump off the side fences and come to obama ending the primary. I suspect Gore, Nancy and Carter will all endorse Obama in the next month.
19 - Spot on
People are going overboard with the “The end of Labour” scenarios. They will lose the next election and probably the one after that but suggesting they will be doomed for a generation is over-egging the pudding.
I would prefer a small Tory majority, personally. I think Ken Clarke’s chancellorship was a high point for fiscal prudence.
Gordon Brown goes down in legend as the chancellor who bankrupted the country during a boom. Plank.
14. SeanT. You’re boring.
Just teasing!
If Clinton wants to she will carry on until the end of the primaries at the beginning of June but then it will be over.
22 - Interesting definition of ‘bankrupt’ there.
19. It also puts an arrow right through her big state argument: NC in the 10th largest in the US.
24, they’ll also let her go on, good race and all that….
14: sean, we’ve jousted too often not to know each others’ routines. You post half-jokey snipes. If they’re challenged you say they were just jokes, and how come we don’t have a sense of humour? If they’re not challenged they become established wisdom, and proof that your counterpart was a lying scoundrel. Anyway, it’s bad form to sneer if you’re winning, no?
15: oops, sorry socrates! I’ll call it a night, I think.
27. Dean and Pelosi will break arms to stop this going to the convention.
27 - Yes she needs to be beaton at the ballot box.
26 - TBF he will still have only won 3 out of the 10 biggest states (the others being Illinois and Georgia).
Re 22 David you may take a different view of the fiscal position, but the country ain’t bankrupt. Debt at 40% of GDP is not dire. You might like it to be lowered, me not. But ‘fraid the OTT stuff, negativity etc is getting on my nerves (especially after such a postive week-end with fairly well off people at Centerparcs!)
22. Since the end of Callaghan we’ve been in the long cyclical politics of the market against the state (sweeping assumption, I know). Maybe now we’re into the old style politics of one or two term governments.
20 - Think Clinton will win Puerto Rico. Note that there are more people of Puerto Rican heritage in New York City than in San Juan. And that PR looks upon NY US Senators as part of their delegation!
But it won’t signify after tonight.
29 - Stop it going to the convention yes, stop it going to the end of the primaries no.
22. We’ve been over the “Labour is doomed” scenario ad nauseam on other threads of late, so I won’t rehash the arguments.
I agree it is still very unlikely. But I do think it is now possible, rather than practically impossible. Put it another way. I’d say the chances of Labour slowly edging into oblivion are now 1 in 10, rather than 1 in 100 a year ago.
But if it happens, it will happen slowly, over four or five general elections. Great political parties in stable democracies are hard to kill off.
If Scotland secedes it will happen much much quicker.
28. Hey. I was actually trying to be nice in that last post, albeit threnodic. Chillax! And sleep well.
34. Indeed, but if enough supers start backing Obama then Clinton’s donors will start drying up.
Indiana Primary
For Governor: Dem primary
Jill Thompson 51%
Jim Schellinger 49%
winner will run against incumbent Gov. Mitch Daniels, who is running unopposed for GOP nomination
OK I hold my hand up at my overstating of our financial mess. Guilty as charged. But I still think we should have been putting money aside during the boom to help us in the global downturn.
Flogging the gold reserves at low commodity prices and plundering the pensions was a scandal.
But since he became PM he has been the one paying for his own splurges. Now he needs the big plans to reverse his government’s decline he has gone to the well and the bucket has come up dry. He only has himself to blame.
intelligent analysis on cnn…compare this to bbc shambles other night. wonder what the odds are on clinton making it 1 more week??
29, The key is that the result is in absolutely no doubt, then they can let Clinton run.
If Obama takes a decent double digit win in NC then that closes off another Clinton avenue and so means less pain for the Dem committee as they can dowhatever they want with the likes of MI & FL for example without being in danger of muddying the result.
At this time its about two issues:
a) numbers (obviously) and
b) narrative
20 - I don’t think Obama will win Puerto Rico. Clinton as you say will win Kentucky and West Virginia quite easily but they are not huge states. Oregon is likely to go narrowly for Obama and Montana and South Dakota are really very small states.
There just isn’t now a realistic route to winning the popular vote for her if early results in North Carolina are broadly reflective. North Carolina is about twice the size of any remaining state so it really takes him very close on securing a popular vote win as well as a (non-super) delegate win.
Indiana primary
PORTER (Portage, Valparaiso, northwest IN) 14% pcts
Clinton 58%
Obama 42%
good numbers for Clinton in Calumet region’s second county (not many Blacks here)
33. Thanks I did not know that. Regardless they will split the rest of the primaries meaning an Obama victory. Reverend Wright would need to come out and say Obama is the anti-Christ for any kinda of meltdown in the polls to give Clinton victory.
38 - That’s much closer than I thought it would be, and bodes well for Obama in Indiana (Jill Long Thompson was being supported financially and on the ground by several Clinton supporters - this result implies that they have not gt out the vote quite as well as I suspected).
re 39 Courteous reply appreciated.
That sort of thing might get me back and posting more often!
Clinton’s 8% lead in IN has remained constant for quite a while with 63% now reporting. Any reason for this to change significantly from now?
43 - That’s interesting. If I Obama can’t win Porter and Lake, then IN is completely out of sight. If he hasn’t pulled into a lead there by 40% pcts reporting, I’ll call it for Clinton.
Indiana Primary
ST JOSEPH (South Bend, home of Nortre Dame U) 100%
Obama 53%
Clinton 47%
Fighting Irish have come through for Barrack!
53-47 with 65% in. Clinton 50k ahead. Surely too late for Barack to close down?
Now 53/47 in Indiana, may even get to a three or four percent margin by the end.
47 - Ooops, it’s just fallen to 6% with 65% reporting!
Closing quite rapidly.
Chuck Todd of NBC says Indiana now too close to call. Obama win “plausable”.
re 49 yes but not big time, is it. A better month and Obama could have sealed it tonight in a neighbouring state.
Still we get just a few more of these to observe before it’s sorted.
50. probably too late yes.
48 - am guessing that Obama will win Lake marrowly, but lose LaPorte. So Hillary will take the state, but not by as much as she was hoping.
54.\I say hes wrong.
50 - Yes. Close but not cigar as Bill would say.
Don’t think this will go to the convention. If the popular vote argument evapourates, I would expect major declarations as soon as the final states vote on 3rd (?) June.
I’m bored of this race now. I wish she would just sling in the towel.
re 58 I say u r right, and I am off. Good night.
59. Agreed. If she hasn’t got the PV, nor the delegates, what exactly is her argument? That she wears a better p@ntsuit?
Democracy must surely trump all else in the Democrat party. It looks like Obama will boast: more states, more delegates, and more voters.
Game over.
I think we need to be careful that Clinton was somehow expected to win IN comfortably.
Looking at the polls Obama had a streak of poll leads there and was still, if you were to believe Zogby, in front.
This was a death match state.
1.12 Was available on Betfair today for HRC in West Virginia.
Thought of having some of that but think the pressure will increase massively tonight on her to pull out, even before next week’s primaries.
the night hrc lost the democratic nomination… Live on pbc
64. Maybe the opposite Ernesto, they may be able to afford to let her go on if she wants because as a contest its really over, which in many ways is just as good.
65. She’s certainly collapsing on intrade.
Indiana Primary
Large Counties with votes left to report:
MARION 67% pcts reporting, O 65%, C 35%
MONROE 9% pcts reporting, O 66%, C 34%
HAMILTON 35% pcts reporting, O 61%, C 39%
PORTER 14% pcts reporting, O 42%, C 58%
few others have less than 10% pcts left to report
Zero in yet from LAKE and LAPORTE
62 “what exactly is her argument? That she wears a better p@ntsuit?”
I’m not prepared to concede that. I wanna see how Barack wears his.
Looks like mazimum +6 for HRC: not enough.
64, 66 Think Clinton will win WV even if she withdraws this week. Remember that the ballots are already printed, and the primary will take place regardless of any announcement by Clinton.
63. It doesn’t matter what is expected, it matters what she needed.
63 - If she wins Indiana she stays in but is only staving off the inevitable. Despite likely defeat you’ve got to admire her staying power. Obama has had so many chances to kill her campaign off and failed each time, albeit inching closer each time.
If Clinton had lost NH, CA, OH/TX, PA or IN she would have been forced out.
62 - Yes. She would now need a very strong majority of superdelegates. They need a reasonable fig leaf to support whatever decision they make and I don’t think the “winning key swing states” argument really stacks up.
CNN say that a key county on the suburbs of Chicago but in Indiana has yet to declare any numbers so it could well narrow. Hence they have yet to call a winner.
65 You may be right, Robert. We haven’t had Rod Crosby on yet to announce ‘the witch is dead’, as is customary at this point, but I start to get the feeling that she is finally ebbing away.
She needed a win (again) tonite. Seems she’s barely going to scrape a draw.
72. No it doesnt. She was never going to win that by 10%.
IN was never going to somehow magically bring her back.
What she needed to do was win ad keep Obama within sight in NC.
She looks to have done one and failed in the other.
66.Why would they want her to go on now? Even if she wins Indiana it will be by a small-ish margin.
I still think she would be a better bet against McCain but I don’t have a vote. I can’t see the Dems nominating anyone but Obama now.
73. She wouldn’t have been forced out after NH as she would have still won Nevada, and would have come back a degree on Super Tuesday.
Indiana Primary
counties with zero yet reported:
LAKE
LAPORTE
WAYNE (Richmond, home of Earlham College, may be ok for Obama)
TIPPICANOE (Lafayette, home of Purdue U, ditto)
HENDRICKS (Danville, exurbs west of Indpls)
Other 6 are small rurals that will go to Hillary
Zero reporting from Lake County 26% AA. Indiana will tighten.
76. She needed to win by 10% and keep NC within 3%. The fact that this was very unlikely is the reason I said earlier she only had a 5-10% chance of getting the nomination.
Indiana now changing from “too early to call” to “too close to call” according MSNBC.
78 - Her campaign would have been over if she had lost NH. No momentum, falling apart, she may have staggered to ST but would almost certainly have been knocked out then.
78 - But the result of Super Tuesday would have been very different but for New Hampshire. She would have gone on until then for sure (like Romney because you might as well) but I think that’s it.
The whole tone of the TV news coverage in the US is that Hillary can’t win it. And I say that as someone with 2 grand coming in if Hillary wins this
62. her latest argument - and I kid you not - since I saw it with my own eyes on Sky News earlier today is…
“If the Democratic Party had the same rules as the Republican Party I would already be the Democratic nominee…”
Clinton is a deranged, narcissistic crackpot, who in a sane world would not even be on the ballot as dog-catcher, let alone President of the US…
77. Because they can Ernesto. I’m not saying they will but the problem with the race going on is because somehow, on some angle, there was doubt.
Kinda like someone standing against Brown last year, You know who the likely winner was but its good to have a nice race and so on.
They can pressure her to go or just plain let her carry on if she wants. The headache will go either way and thats the most important thing.
Obama apparently concedes Indiana.
Obama just conceded Indiana ?!?!
Indiana looking similar to Missouri at the moment
Obama playing the big state line as I predicted.
86 - Why does that make her deranged? It is fact.
81. Socrates you are looking at stats, I’m looking at narrative.
The stats have nearly been so long against Clinton that they have become irrelevant other than making for or taking away a headache for the DNC.
This hasnt been about stats for ages.
Indiana Primary
For Governor in Dem Primary
Jill Thompson 50%
Jim Schellinger 50%
Map on Indianapolis Star webpage indicates that this race is a battle between north (Thompson) and south (Schellinger)
92. So she should eff off and join the GOP!!!
92. A fact which is entirely irrelevant. Unless its her new new math: “One measure of who won is how we would have done had we had the rules of the Republican party.”
I correct myself, Obama actually said “what appears to be”.
92 Because if she wants Republican Party rules, she should stand as a Republican!!
75. PtP. Agreed. Looks like it’s finally resolving to Obama getting the nomination.
86 “Clinton is a deranged, narcissistic crackpot, who in a sane world would not even be on the ballot as dog-catcher, let alone President of the US…”
Yeah, but is she dead yet, Rod?
The Superdelegates are not going to attract unnecessary ire by depriving the final states of a meaningful contest. This is certainly not over until June 3rd.
She won’t withdraw after winning Indiana (which was a toss-up even a week ago). She won’t after winning WV, nor after winning KY (let alone OR), or after winning PR. This goes to June 3rd.
I make that almost four months since Super Tuesday, and he still hasnt finished her off. If anything, he is limping to victory - this is the narrative she will spin - “he won plenty before March 5th, she won thereafter, and the more the American public have seen, the less sure they are of Barack Obama, so why take a chance?”.
I still think MI and FL will be seated, and think that she has a 25% or even 30% chance at the nomination, based on the RBC and Credentials Committee. If the SDs don’t flood in the three days after the final primary, I would put her at almost evens.
The big question is “If a SD didn’t support Obama in February, or in March, or in April when he looked certain, why are we so confident that (after the re-emergence of Pastor Wright and a serious wobble amongst white working classes) that they will now embrace him with such certainty?”.
I don’t think this is over, unless she loses Indiana tonight.
She’s finished - well you guys, don’t say I didn’t give you a good way a couple of days ago at getting onto Obama at 3-1.
Goodnight everyone
93. I think it’s been about stats all along. The superdelegates are individuals, and the worse the maths the more heroic job she needed to convince the remainder. Regardless of narrative, unless something huge happened she wasn’t going to get 3/4 of the remaining superdelegates.
85. Short of a scandal, thats sadly a loser for you.
The margin in NC is what most matters. Clinton’s own target, by the looks of it, 10% or less down.
It may be irrelevant but it does not make her ‘deranged’ to point it out. TBF I think there is an argument for the Democrats to look at their rules. Plus, a politician is trained to highlight any metric by which they are advantaged.
96. That was precisely her implication in the surreal interview…
Un-be-friggin-liev-able…
105. Except the Republican rules are absolutely ridiculous: some winner takes all, some PR.
It’s been plenty close enough all along the way for Hillary to justify going on and I don’t understand the vilification (”deranged” etc). All seems entirely reasonable and she can deploy the arguments she has.
If it pans out that she has lost the popular vote and delegates when the remaining primaries are out of the way (as I expect is now very likely), and still doesn’t put her hands up then I will join the vilification. Until then, I don’t see why she should withdraw just because Obamaniacs say so.
The NC SOS site has the race closer than CNN.
Obama winning 56-42, 540k to 409k
If she’s been lending money personally to her campaign, then maybe she has to go on to try and recoup it.
108 - That is exactly my position.
General question - if it were inappropriate or wrong to let SDs overturn the delegate count and popular vote, why have SDs at all?
How is this different to UK party leaders, except that we give elected officials even more of a say over party leaders than they do in the US?
They are a sensible buffer to prevent a potentially-unelectable candidate from being chosen. I think Obama could be their most sucessful winner since Johnson, but there are doubts, and he is a significant risk (Clinton winning Kerry plus one is a pretty safe strategy, even if I think it would fail). Can’t blame the SDs for not just following the herd…
lead down to 5% in IN
52%-48% Clinton lead in Indiana after 71%votes counted. CNN.
It’s 52 -48 now. Lake county is going to be key.
Now narrowing to 4% in Indiana. North Carolina at 20%. If it is anything like that at the end it has to go down as a very good night for Obama.
110. I still think its pretty cheeky to ask your blue collar supporters to donate to your campaign, when you’ve earned nine figures over the last decade and only loan it!
103. If it was about stats it 85-15 after Maine, maybe 70-30 after OH & Texas but always a big deficit for Clinton.
This is what people werent getting about Clinton. No matter what stats her campaign quoted it wasnt about stats at all it was about attrition and frankly if she wins in IN then what it has shown is that Obama has, at least in the Dem race, not done half as well in tight states as commonly imagined if you were to read PB.com. Whether that applies in November is anyones guess.
Bear in mind that, before any stats are quoted, I have yet to call one of these races wrong when the money was down, have made money following that pattern and sone so by ignoring some popular conceptions bandied about on this site.
Anyway I’m off to bed, if theres a shock somewhere, it ca wait until morning.
107 - As are the Democratic rules! Texas - WTF!
The whole system is 19th century.
Rod - Politician spins figures to paint themselves in better light. Shock!
Funny thing about Hillary & the rules.
IF she hadn’t tried to game the system by engineering the early primaries in Michigan & Florida, against DNC rules, she likely would have won these states fair & square. Which would likely resulted in a whole different ball game.
Talk about being hoist on yer own petard!
Hillary lead down to a little over 40K in IN - 52/48 and closing.
121 - cmon Barack, keep up the charge!
120. She didn’t engineer the early primaries though. She condemned them along with everyone else when she was the voice of the establishment.
113 Amazingly Barack’s odds have come down to 9.5/1 - I exited an hour ago at 19.5/1
120 - No I don’t think that is fair. Clinton wanted them early but criticised them for breaking the rules. She has been unlucky in that two good big states for her broke the rules and were ruled out. If they had voted on ST she would have come out with a clear lead and momentum.
112 I agree entirely Morus. This whole superdelegate issue is entirely of the DNC’s own creation, and Hillary has no obligation to make things easy for them by withdrawing.
What I would say is that the media coverage tonight in the US has turned strongly against Hillary Clinton, and the script seems to be how can the superdelegates deny him .
Indiana Primary
Note that one of the rural counties with zero reporting yet, is JACKSON the home of John Mellencamp, the “Small Town” boy who endorsed Obama (after his 1st choice Edwards withdrew).
But predict that JACKSON will go for Hillary when it comes in . . .
108. The reason she is getting “vilified”, James, is that hers is a self-fulfilling prophesy: her argument that Barack Obama cannot win in the fall is made more likely precisely because her disgusting, race-bait, poisonous, break-the-rules campaign is doing everything possible it can to make sure he cannot win.
I think she will fail - but the reason she should drop out is because she cannot win without destroying the chances of the party. She cannot win without alienating the black population - and lets not pretend they’ll unite if the only way she gets the nomination is through her supporters on the Convention Rules Committee seating the invalid Michigan and Florida delegates.
The converse argument is that Obama can’t win without working class blue collar Democrats. That’s also true - but the difference is that Obama can win the nomination without cheating; he doesn’t need to rig the convention to win. So there is not the same justification for blue collar working class Democrats to feel cheated, and it will therefore be easier to unite them.
That’s why she should withdraw - because the only winner in this race with her remaining in it is John McCain.
108. Are you mad? If you enter the game you play by the rules. You don’t play rugby and say when you are losing “Ah, but if this was football, that would have been a goal…”
She was totally serious…
She’s a self-obsessed Crackpot..
Unbalanced..
D.A.N.G.E.R.O.U.S….
The guy’s on form. I feel he’s had his swagger back over the last couple of days after being decidedly fatigued since Pennsylvania.
125. Actually I think Michigan would have gone for Obama.
120. Not convinced she’d have won Michigan, Sea Shanty. Florida yes, but Michigan? Given how Wisconsin went? Given that it borders Illinois? Given the huge black population in Detroit? Given the huge “uncommitted” vote that turned out in the snow despite there being no other candidate on the ballot?
125 - the “criticism” was purely pro forma. The whole deal was engineered to help her nail down the nomination by Super Tuesday.
She screwed herself.
127. Did Mellencamp endorse Obama? I thought he was backing both of them.
Hamilton county has Obama 4k in votes ahead after 35%. Lake County contains the city of Gary, it is worrying that it is taking so long. This could end up being very close as most of the Clinton counties are fully declared now.
re 120 That’s the Clintons for you.
132. Actually, thinking about it Edwards would have probably won it. A lot of economic populism in Michigan.
128 - But you’re underplaying the advantages of the primary continuing.
Obama is building up networks in these states, and Democratic turnout is up massively.
He is learning to deal with attacks now, this will make him tougher. If the Dem primary had finished earlier the Wright stuff may only have come out in the fall. The Clinton campaign has been timid compared to most American campaigns.
Down to 4% now.
My point Yokel is that she has to continue to have resounding victories. She has lost big in NC and MAY win NC. There comes a point when party politics enters the equation and my guess is that she will have the phone off the hook tomorrow as she avoids calls from the party elders.
If she could win, she should carry on. I don’t think she can now. Game over.
125 - Should add that the Clintons have had more control over the primary schedule and ground rules than any non-incumbent in the history of the Democratic Party. And that goes back to the 1790s!
The total amount traded on the Betfair Democratis nomination market has now topped £3m.
52-48
Can this be pulled off?
Just doing some quick sums, looks like Obama will close the gap by about 20k, excluding those counties at 0%. Question then is: can he close the remaining 24k from the 0%ers?
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/1875/3636/en/summary.html#
Gap is closing in NC. SOS site ahead of CNN.
Now Obama leading 55-43, 591k - 461k
132. If Edwards couldn’t win Iowa with all the investment and organisation he had in a very small state, I very much doubt he could have won a big state like Michigan. Socrates.
142. I think the odds are against it, but its possible.
131, 132 - Remember, the whole deal was engineered BEFORE Obama won Iowa. Clintons thought the anybody-but-Hillary vote would be split between Obama & Edwards. They didn’t foresee being whipped in Iowa.
Given Edward’s lackluster campaign, very hard to see him winning Michigan, even with his message. Because the women would have broken for Hillary, and she’d have been comptetive with the bluecollar men as well.
Lead below 38K in Indiana 74% reporting. Nothing from Lake.
145. But all Michigan has wanted for years is the federal government to prop up their industry with subsidies, a tax on the rich and a big increase in the minimum wage. Yours is a fair point though.
If Obama wins IN its over.
Michigan voted for Jesse Jackson. Every state that backed Jackson also backed Obama. Add in the proximity to Illinois, and you have all the makings of an Obama victory.
MSNBC argue he only needs win win the rest by 55% to win. That’s very feasible.
129 - Look, at the end of all this she will probably have come within 1% of him in the popular vote. Not close enough in the end but I just don’t buy the argument that not withdrawing in March makes her some sort of dangerous lunatic.
128 - I don’t at all think her campaign matches your description. Obama’s biggest challenges have been of his own making. Pastorgate was a real issue - one he has done well to prevent destroying his campaign but not some kind of synthetic debate invented by Clinton. He has been tested by the fire and is probably stronger for it as a candidate.
152. He only needs a lead of 1.5% in the rest…
151. But was that because Jackson was the most radical left-winger in the state or because he was black? But fair, enough, I’ll concede Obama would have probably won.
114. What the heck has happened there?
Ernesto, I get your point entirely. Merely saying that if things are cut and dried they can take the sporting view if they want.
147. But also bear in mind that Michigan is an open primary, and because the Dem primary was effectively void, there was no crossover voting in the Dem primary - had this been contested there would, I argue be huge Republican and Independent participation (in the same way that Dems crossed over to give the state to McCain against Bush eight years ago); yet despite this major absence, the uncommitted vote in the Dem primary was huge.
One other factor. No talk yet of Hillary speaking.
934,000 Indiana voters have been declared with 75% of precincts.
How many actual votes still to be declared? Another 200,000?
Indiana Primary
TIPPICANOE (Lafayette, Purdue U) 49% pcts reporting
Obama 59%
Clinton 41%
once again Hoosier students - and other middle class progressives - go for Obama
154. sorry, alcohol and stats don’t mix… more like 10%…
PtP - did you back Obama with PP to win IN by any chance????
Barack now 7.2/1 on Betfair to win IN
35k gap, Obama looks likely to close about half of that excluding the 0%ers.
162 No. I misread this one. Didn’t expect it to be close, PfP.
O/T Sarkozy withdraws backing for Blair as EU President
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7386891.stm
Clinton has been declared the winner in IN.
3.7%
167 says who?
163: last price matched only 10/1 (or 1/10 laying HRC)
156. Yokel if she wind Indiana by 2-4% do you think she should continue? If so why?
Lead down to 34K - 78% reporting
Re Michigan & Florida, remember that the deal wasn’t about what actually happened. Or even what might have happened.
Rather, it was about what the Clintons THOUGHT was going to happen, way back in 2007.
NBC called it.
167, 169 - Karl Rove!
31.5k
But apparently they have now changed to “too close to call” unbelievable I have money on this.
CNN analysts Obama needs 55% of remaining votes to win.
Obama needs +11 in the last 25%…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_County,_Indiana
Lead back to 35k for HRC
Whoever finally wins really isn’t going to make any real difference to the delegate vote +/- 1 is it?
Clinton is basically done.
And no way Obama is going to get elected.
SO FOUR MORE YEARS
175
I ask: Did he? Did Rove call it for Clinton?
Obama need +11.4% in the last 22%….
180 - Gary makes up only 1 quarter of the population of the county. AAs though make up over a quarter of the population. Could easily go 55% for Obama. Think he could do it. This is Missouri all over again.
182 - nope, but will to a few bank balances
I love it when it gets this close. This is what political betting is all about.
182 Maybe not but it matters to those of us who bet on the Indiana primary !
Indiana Primary
Counties with significant votes outstanding
LAKE 0% reported
LAPORTE 0% reported
HAMILTON 89% reported, now O 60%, C 40%
MARION 94% reported, now O 67%, C 33%
MONROE 23% reported, now O 67%, C 33%
CLARK 89% reported, now O 33%, C 67%
182 - No and ultimately Clinton loses either way, but symbolically and momentum/narrative wise it does. If she loses IN I can see a concession.
Live updates from the Lake County counts here:
http://www.post-trib.com/news/elections/lake/934357,LAKERACES0506.article
183. FOUR MORE YEARS, featuring JOHN MCCAIN and GEORGE W. BUSH - coming to every Democratic TV spot this autumn!
184 - That was a joke!
183. Tory Boy, I’ve a feeling that you look like your gormless “four more years” smiley. Am I right?
194
Ok!
Obama needs +13.5% in the last 21%…
She’s in, in IN…
183 - I really believe whoever is Democrat nominee will win this reasonably easily. McCain is really a very weak candidate. Dean’s commercials are already being widely aired and causing serious damage. May well come back to haunt me but there we go. And no, I didn’t say the same four years ago.
187,189 It matters to me too financially - sorry i was just checking out the political significance.
“Rudy Clay, chairman of the Lake County Democratic Party, expects U.S. Sen. Barack Obama to win Gary in a landslide, based on precint-by-precinct trends. Obama also won East Chicago, Clay said”
Too damn close to call. The winner will be by less than 10,000 - perhaps even less than 1,000. Effectively a dead heat?
197
tend to agree
From the post tribune:
8:20 p.m. Gary: Rudy Clay, chairman of the Lake County Democratic Party, expects U.S. Sen. Barack Obama to win Gary in a landslide, based on precint-by-precinct trends. Obama also won East Chicago, Clay said, but U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton won in Hobart.
This is getting tense.
183. Yes that will be the slogan about McCain that wins it for Obama!
36k with 19% to go. Doesn’t look like its closing quite fast enough.
200 They are hinting on Fox that the count in Gary Indiana could be similar to the Chicago count in 1960 for JFK….
One way of ending the race I guess.
36k with 19% remaining, expanded again a bit.
Any idea what time this result will come in. Its exciting to see, if it remains close, but don’t want to stay up too late.