Would Tessa give Cameron a run for his money?
May 8th, 2008
Is this the woman who could turn Labour’s fortunes around?
I don’t claim to understand the intricacies of Labour party internal politics but after pondering over the past few days I have come up with a couple of names of people I believe could turn round voters views of the party and make the next general election less of the disaster than it looks at the moment.
What’s needed is a different style and a different tone and a leader who comes over as being authentic and likeable. Absolutely central is to have someone who can communicate and has a high emotional intelligence. So what about a woman?
I am becoming more impressed by Jackie Smith who was a good choice, going for kebabs from her local shop notwithstanding, for Home Secretay - a role that has swallowed up many of Labour’s big beasts - but I don’t she’s quite got it yet for the big job.
Harriet Harman was my eventual betting choice for the Deputy job last year when all the money was going on Alan Johnson. She did well as a stand-in for Gord at PMQs last month but her voice lets her down. She always sounds as though she is whining.
The leading Labour woman who stands head and shoulders above everybody is Tessa Jowell who got demoted by Gordon last year. Her performance on TV last after Labour’s disaster in the locals and as we awaited the London result was superb. There are few other politicians who could have coped so well and come over so effectively
I think David Cameron would find her a very tricky adversary. She would enjoy an amazing media honeymoon when, dare I suggest, calling an election could be on the cards.
Whether she would get it or even wants it I don’t know and she is regarded as too much of a Blairite for large parts of the movement. But I believe she has what it takes. If indeed Gordon was ousted or had to step down on health grounds then I can only think of only one other leading Labour politician who could equal her. His prospects will be discussed in a separate article and I will leave that and his identity dangling there.
Tessa is priced at 100/1 on the next leader market. I’ve put a fiver on.
Mike Smithson
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Is this a comedy thread?
Mike - read this and practically choked with amazement. Tessa Jowell?!
But then I read the last paragraph, and, at 100-1, I think you’re right to have a punt. I think 100-1 is good value. I’d say 50-1 was fair.
Still not going to happen. But you might make money out of it, which, of course, is the point.
I had to check the calendar - is it April 1st ?
Have seen her off her trolley like she had been on the mogadons on the Beebs election night fiasco I wouldn’t bet on her to tie her own laces.
500/1 would be poor odds.
No.
/end thread.
Hmmm…you could have had that fiver with me, Mike.
John Cruddas is more my idea of a serious candidate, or mybe John Denham, but Tessa? Fraid not.
Won’t be anybody though. Gordon intends the ship to go down with him.
No, she wouldn’t.
Alan Johnson, had he not earlier stated he wasn’t up to the job, would be a competent PM.
Straw or Denham could be a caretaker.
Cruddas could be interesting.
Don’t think I’ve missed anybody out. Everyone else would be a varying shade of Apocalyptic black, with Balls the darkest.
Total Comedy - tessa jowell should be in the dock for her lies over the berlusconi bung oh and then there is the blatant lies over the olympics budget. would her ex-estranged husband be allowed to carry on his arms dealing etc etc
she is the personification of everything that is wrong with nulabour.
Personally I would not bet on her being leader of Labour because she won’t be but then I wouldn’t bet against her being Labour candidate for London Mayor in 4 years, because that at least is feasible.
The sad fact is that Tessa would make a much better leader than Gordilocks. I will leave others to deduce what that means
9 - A marionette would make a better leader than Gordon.
7. Yes that just about sums it up. The answer to Mike’s question is definitely no.
Mike you’re usually spot on, but I had to laugh out loud when I read you supoprt for Tessa. As we watched her performance on TV the other day my colleagues all groaned, saying she’s hopeless.
Now if Jacqui Smith’s constituency wasn’t so marginal, I would be have a long range punt on her. She’s a rare human face in the Labour cabinet, and she sounds normal. I think I will have a quick check to see if there are any silly prices out there.
No.
But 100/1 she’s worth a punt. More chance than Tony at the same odds sullying his record by losing an election.
If this is labour’s best chance of winning the next election there is a severe lack of talent in the party.
10. I believe Madame Tussauds are working on the solution to Labour’s problems as we speak.
It was First Minister’s Questions today:
- “… Mr Salmond said the SNP would stick to its manifesto pledge, adding: “This is a serious process, which is why we’re engaging with it in a serious way.” He went on: “It is impossible for anyone outside the Labour Party - and I think most people in it - to take the Labour Party seriously after the last few days.”
As the row dominated question time, Scottish Tory leader Annabel Goldie… [said] “For those millions of people in Scotland who do want devolution to work the Labour Party may have abandoned them but the Conservatives have not,” she told parliament. “A referendum on something so important as the constitutional future of Scotland, a country we all love, cannot be allowed to become a vote on the unpopularity of Gordon Brown and Wendy Alexander - that is an unacceptably dangerous road to take.”
Nicol Stephen, the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader, asked: “Can the first minister believe his luck? Over the past year he has seen the Conservatives cosy up to him and back his budget. They were the best of friends, until this week when the farcical floor show of the modern-day Labour Party came into view. With Labour and Tories like this, does he think life can get any better?”"
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7389459.stm
Is this a candidate for “Great questions of our time to which the answer is almost invariably ‘no’”?
I mean, it would be a good one to submit…
I must admit she grew on me on the night of the London Mayor count. In that she wasn’t spinning away like crazy about Labour’s prospects in London. OK, there was a bit of spin there as there inevitably is in a government minister, but it was a completely different approach to what I was expecting.
The problem Tessa has is the inevitable question will be asked: “Do we want a woman who doesn’t read her own mortgage applications as our Prime Minister?”
She’s an attractive punt at 100/1, but her odds should still be long. She is an ultra-Blairite, and the ultra-Blairites seem to have fixated themselves on Miliband or Johnson as the next leader. For the Brownite side Balls is carrying the flag. If a compromise candidate is required it most certainly won’t be Tessa - more likely to be Straw.
100-1 for a fiver is a decent bet, but in reality she has three facets that completely rule her out
1) The sniff of corruption (and resulting revelation that she didn’t even notice someone had lent them hundreds of thousands of pounds) - she came out of the Burlesconi-Mills affair loking either corrupt, or a completely clueless kept woman. Even without that, I think a lot of people were disgusted that her nest was quite so well feathered.
2) The Olympic budget was lowballed, and she is one of the better known faces having to defend how these figures could possibly be so far off.
3) Her nickname is Nanny Jowell - she is the epitome of interfering government, which makes her the easiest member of the government for the (freedom-talking) Tories to run against.
Corrupt, spends too much taxpeyers’ money, interferes at any given opportunity. Perhaps the only leader Cameron would actually prefer to be facing rather than Brown.
Tessa Jowell, one of the biggest spivs amongst many, to replace useless, floundering Brown as leader? LOL Nice bit of mischief making, Mike!
Keep up the good work
12: “Now if Jacqui Smith’s constituency wasn’t so marginal, I would be have a long range punt on her”
Well it didn’t stop the LDs having a contest between two MPs with marginal seats likely to be lost to the Tories next time…
(Mr Senior won’t be able to resist responding to that one)
Woudln’t that advert on the right be better if it was actually a copy of Dod’s goin in the bin? How many people know Dods publish the House Mag?
It is a source of continued personal anguish that the company has lost the apostrophe. Is a sense of history a crime in these poorly punctuated times?
OT (slightly), but any news yet on when GB will be paying Crewe and Nantwich a visit?
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!! thanks i need that!
‘Labour implodes over independence vote’
- “I think I’m going to join the Lib Dems.” – Joke by Labour MSP
“I guess he (Gordon Brown] has lost control of the Scottish Labour Party.” – Labour MSP
“There is a difference between them on that bit, but Wendy intends to stick to her guns.” – A source close to Wendy Alexander commenting on her wanting a referendum as soon as possible and Mr Brown saying there should be a review when the Calman commission reports.
http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Labour-implodes-over-independence-vote.4061348.jp
23. I’d put my mortgage on not before the B/E.
Well I wish I could have a bet on the identity of Mike’s other favoured candidate as I am confident that I can guess who it is. I won’t say as I don’t want to spoil Mike’s fun. Unless of course someone wants to give me decent odds that I’m right.
15. Didn’t Tussauds decide not to bother making a waxwork Gordon on the basis that he wouldn’t be around long enough for it to be worth it? Or was it because non-one would be able to distinguish the waxwork from the original?
Nobody could be worse than Brown. However, Tessa is damaged goods, given the sleaze allegations about her and her (ex?) husband.
If Labour went to the trouble of ditching Brown, they would want someone safe and reliable, someone like Jack Straw or Alan Johnson, not a risky prospect like Tessa. Remember, they won’t be able to go through a divisive leadership contest so close to a general election, so we’ll be looking at an IDS/Michael Howard coronation.
23 - just as soon as the local party recognise GB for the electoral asset he undoubtedly is!
18 - I agree her media performance was much more mature than anything else Labour put up. Even down to her early call that Livingstone was ‘unlikely’ to have won. I think that it puts her in a great position for the Mayor selection but not the leadership.
“The leading Labour woman who stands head and shoulders above everybody is Tessa Jowell”
Mike - please don’t throw away your hard-won reputation for good judgement with eccentric comments like this. Tessa Jowell got embroiled in the mortgage fiasco - that alone makes her vulnerable. Her wild attacks on Boris in her capacity as head of Ken’s campaign were also singularly ill-considered.
Jowell stands alonside Harriet Harman and Patricia Hewitt (and possibly Margaret Hodge) as part of the left-wing-feminist-turned-New-Labour sisterhood. They are the post-modern Nanny State incarnate. None of these patronising, out-of-touch harpies could ever win a general election.
Well, I tipped her about a month ago, purely on the basis that among the Labour flora and fauna, her name was inexplicably missing!
If we get to the point where a change at the top looks likely, I’d expect her odds to narrow considerably…
Are you kidding Mike?
I can see the logic in going for a woman, but Tessa Jowell? *shudder* There are surely better female candidates, inside and outside the cabinet. Can you really imagine a Jowellite uprising? Really? I will eat my hat if it happens, but I just can’t see it.
28 - Two coronations in short order would be calamitous, plus unless they literally knife Brown he is going to be a brooding presence on the back benches.
When your friends are Scottish Labour MPs, who needs enemies?
- “One Labour MP said the general view at Westminster was Ms Alexander had “probably gone mad”.”
http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Wendy-Alexander39s-job-as-Scots.4062282.jp
Re 26. StJohn - drop me an email to see if you are right.
26. Are you thinking of John Denham?
28, Ed Balls.
“Would Tessa give Cameron a run for his money?”
No. Obviously.
Next topic.
34 - has any response by Brown to Dave’s letter yesterday been published yet?
Ed Miliband? John Hutton? Anybody but Brown?
we really must not encourage women in the field of politics. it is a men’s game!
O/T OB now 1.13 for the nomination ! HC 9.4 on betfair.
“She would enjoy an amazing media honeymoon when, dare I suggest, calling an election could be on the cards. ” LOL, LOL, LOL
Labour could ditch brown in favour of Princess Diana, Mother Theresa or Nelson Mandela and they wouldnt get a media honeymoon. They are collapsing because they have failed on policy.
Mike, she may be a good media performer, but there are a lot of things counting against her. You seem to have forgotten the whole Berlusconi business. She is very Blairite and will Labour be prepared to go for another after just one year?
But more broadly we are in interesting territory now. If labour MPs assume they’ve lost the next election, might they start to ponder a damage limitation exercise that could save some of their seats?
How many big beasts have been bought down by the Home Office? Only Carles Clarke from memory. Straw moved on (surely he’s your secret man?) Blunkett bought himself down and Reid quit as the possibility of working with Brown dawned on him.
33. Exactly. Which is why, realistically, Brown has got to stay until the general election. They really can’t have another coronation, but this is also not the point to have a long, protracted leadership contest, with all the inevitable splits and interal rows that would occur.
Yesterday in the Commons:
David Cameron:
“Labour’s leader in Scotland, Wendy Alexander, says that there should be a referendum now on Scottish independence. Does he agree with her?”
Gordon Brown:
“That is not what she said.”
Today in Holyrood:
Wendy Alexander:
“I am giving [Salmond] the opportunity to resolve the issue. Why won’t he take it?”
“We believe that the uncertainty is damaging Scotland. I and my collegues have therefore offered our support to bring this issue forward now. We believe that Scotland deserves a choice sooner rather than later… the First Minister tells us over 80% of Scots want a referendum - so why are we still waiting?”
Oh dear, Gordon!
Tessa Jowell. I wondered if it was spoof thread and that PB.com had been hacked into….
37. OK, I’ll give you that.
I also think that names count for a lot in politics. Flint, Cruddas, Miliband are negative names; instinctively off-putting and/or ridiculous…
Tessa Jowell is soft, fluffy, reassuring, non-threatening…
Tessa Jowell has nothing in her ministerial record to commend her to the public. Moreover, she doesn’t have an obvious power base to campaign on - it’s no coincidence that last year’s deputy leadership vote was won by a consummate insider.
Also, we have to consider how Gordon Brown will be replaced. If he is to go after the next election, he will be replaced by a leader of an ideological group - Jon Cruddas, John Denham, David Miliband or (God help us) Ed Balls. If he is to go after a challenge in the autumn, he will be replaced by a big beast on the backbenches who brings a challenge for the sake of the party - Charles Clarke, John Reid or (as a very long shot) David Blunkett. Only if Gordon Brown goes of his own volition will there be a wider group of candidates where an unexpected name emerge as leader, and even then Jack Straw would be the one I expected to win in those circumstances as a safe pair of hands.
That said, 100-1 is too long for Tessa Jowell, and seems to me well worth a fiver.
re 36. No not Denham or Ed Balls. Tessa would outshine them both.
We live in a world where coming over well in the media is critical. most people most of the time have virtually no contact or ongoing interest in politics. They form their impressions of leaders from fleeting glances of maybe 5 to 10 seconds. As I was arguing for eighteen months before Brown came in he totally failed the fleeting glance test. In fact he has got worse.
One way for Labour to show change is by having a woman leader.
46. Cameron should now call for an emergency debate in the Commons and call Brown to The House to explain what the hell is going on here.
47. Aside from the Berlusconi thing, it’s not THAT absurd, is it? She is a more effective communicator than most politicians.
46. Maybe Brown’s people only gave him some spin rather than what Alexander actually said because they were afraid of his temper.
re 47. We are not Harriet Harman who had a user name of “Harriet” and a password of “Harman” before her site was hacked into. I like to think that ours are a bit more secure.
I was amused at the Englishmen on the previous thread commenting on Scottish independence, and saying what England would or would not demand or allow. You really haven’t got it, have you? Gordon Broon is destroying the Labour Party and destroying England. Once his mission is accomplished, probably within the next eighteen months, he will pull the plug, and England will sink gracefully beneath the waves. As it does so, we will unzip the secret zip fastener we have installed along the border, and contemplate the lovely expanse of sea between Scotland and the Continent.
It has to be this way, though I will be sad, as I rather like the English. But if we left you afloat and alive, you might send Gordon back to us. Frankly, we would rather he died a gallant death. Otherwise, he would probably sell off all our oil at tuppence-ha’penny a barrel…
Could this Scotland thing be the issue that brings down Brown? He is in danger of beingseen as the man who is presiding over the break up of the UK for purely party political reasons. This will not go down well in middle england.
@55:
Mike knows all about security, hence username: M1k3, password: sm1ths0n
As he is 62,grey-haired,has a certain gravitas,and has the posts of Home/Foreign Secretary,I would favour Jack Straw to steady the ship.
His being English,and representing an English seat would probably tick a psoitive box for a good few-I could actually envisage Labour still being largest in a hung parliament with Straw as leader.
One thought occured to me:Mrs.T was overthrown by her own party in 1990 to avert the likely event of Neil Kinnock reaching Downing Street.If Gordon Brown could be persuaded his staying leader will almost certainly result in David Cameron getting to Downing Street(which as it stands I believe he will),would GB ,for his own party’s sake,be prepared to make the ultimate political sacrifice?
51. Mike, I agree that most people are actually completely disinterested. But what about Berlusconi? Are we going to have the farcical reunion of PMs Jowell and Berlusconi together at the G8 conference?
@59:
Jack Straw is the only reasonable choice for caretaker-leader-in-opposition.
Before that though, you have to go through the inevitable electoral oblivion…
Perhaps in recognition for being the only Labourite hard enough to take on Brown head to head, Wendy Alexander might be a good choice ?
46. what exactly is going on now?
re 49. Rod - what did you think of Virginia Bottomley??
57 - well Ms Alexander has dropped him even further in it now (see above). Surely a strong Labour leader would just have her sacked?
The stench of decay is just overwhelming. Never has a government self-destructed so massively in such a short space of time.
59. Cameron won’t screw up the next election like Kinnock did in 92!
“WE’RE” ALRIGHT” “WE’RE ALRIGHT”
49 - You missed out two off-putting ridiculous names from your list, Gordon and Brown especially when seen together!
57, you win the Political Understatement of the Year award.
If Brown ends up destroying the UK he’ll be hated by unionists for centuries. Quite the legacy.
51. As we are in spoof mode, Dianne Abbot?
64. Always had a nice ring to it.
57. Who knows? Scotland and Wales brought down Callaghan. It wouldn’t surprise me if this story gets bigger.
@65:
Unlike a certain person I can mention, Bendy Wendy was elected.
The pottiest thread I’ve ever seen on this site!!
re 74. Was she? I thought that she had a coronation as well.
64, 70 - the fact that “Virginia Bottomley” is an anagram of I’m an evil Tory bigot” always put me off her.
18- What does Blairite and Brownite even mean anymore? There doesn’t seem to be much seperating them.
The accepted wisdom used to be along the lines of Brown is nicer to poor people, but even that myth has been exploded recently.
Leave Gordon alone. He’s doing a great job of screwing up Labour. tessa Jowell is an amateur and would take longer:-)
I think Wendy is turning the knife in gordon’s back.
What a bunch of …
78. The problem is that there was such a personality divide that the PLP split into two ‘camps.’ And it’s difficult to see those camps going away as soon as Brown leaves.
71 Its starting to play on Sky news heavily. They are showing the hammering salmond dished out to the idiot alexander and showing the two statements from broon and bendy wendy that clearly dont stack up. its going to get messy
@76:
Oh, my mistake. You’re right. She and Gordon have as much legitimacy as each other. Well, they can drag each other down to hell, they’re clearly made for each other.
79. I’d love it if Wendy brought Gordon down. It’d be hilarious to see one crap leader knife another!
Why doesn’t Brave Sir Gordon sack her?
if we are in fantasy mode;
Nick Palmer for PM!
Conservative leaflet for C+N
Nice pic of the great leader..
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/2008/05/05/crewenantwichleaflet.gif
@83:
Wendy’s position is as SPLP leader. Does Brown, as PLP leader, have the authority to remove her?
81 - Quoting one of the protagonists “Bring it on”
82, I wouldn’t mind if their petty idiocy ruined their own careers, but it looks like it could shatter the union.
If the UK were to be dissolved due to a serious reason, that would be one thing. But for a three hundred year old settlement to be torn to shreds by the feeble squabbles of two so-called leaders, neither of whom faced a challenger for the crown (think I’m right about Bendy Wendy) is pathetic.
Mike, you ” don’t claim to understand the intricacies of Labour party internal politics” was a good start to the piece. I agree with you that Jowell was a trooper right through the campaign and did her best to polish the t*rd that is Brand Livingstone. However, Labour is a machine that rewards Players - witness Harman’s election as deputy leader, never mind Brown’s pressure to prevent a contest - and only the exceptional can buck that trend. Y’all know who I’m talking about.
64. Very tidy, but not a great politician.
The silly name scale rules out…
Douglas Alexander
Balls
Blears
Cruddas
Harriet
Flint
Hoon
Milibands
and probably
Burnham
Hutton
Benn
Darling
leaving
Johnson
Jowell
Straw
Cooper
Smith
Kelly
Clarke
Reid
and possibly Purnell (but he’s a t*at, so he rules himself out)
86. Good point! I’m not sure about that…
That said, as Leader of the UK Labour Party Brown should exert enough political influence to get any leader of the SLP to step down, or make life very difficult for them.
Note I say “should.” I don’t know whether Brown even has enough influence left…
37. Mike. I have emailed you. I would lost money with my first choice but I have put up another.
Technical question - can Gordon Brown sack Wendy Alexander?
I can only assume that Mike believes she will be one of only a handful of remaining Labour MP’s after the next election. That is the only way she gets her name in the frame - as Leader of the Rump.
93: No.
I’ve no idea what the Labour rules say though…
Nick Robinson must have an exclusive interview coming out with Gordon.
The only explanation for this sick inducing blog posting:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2008/05/opening_up.html#commentsanchor
A party is so enamoured of a man that it annoints him leader. Less than 12 months later it wants to depose him beacuse of bad polls and local elections. The Labour party would look ridiculous and the country would be an international laughing stock. A reality check is in order, I think
@93:
I am now inclined to suspect not. Brown’s position is a (Westminster) Parliamentary one, and surely carries no authority in Holyrood?
@97:
What do you mean ‘would look’?
96. Where’s the vomit smily when you need it?!
Tessa Jowell - ‘an amazing media honeymoon’
MUHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!! COUGH COUGH
Surely, Mike, a gentleman of your undoubted talents.
You must be having an off day….
98. Brown’s position is leader of the *National* Labour party. I don’t believe it has a federal structure, hence the SLP does come under his control. Whether this control involves the power to sack the leader, I don’t know.
I think only JOHN DENHAM could hope to restore some of Labour’s fortunes.
That is, for Labour to recover, there has to be some admission of past blunders — and that is only possible for someone not too closely connected to the mistakes.
96, quite the non-story from one of the BBC’s resident Brown-nosers.
83. Matt1 - “Why doesn’t Brave Sir Gordon sack her?”
Err… he cannae! Because he is not really her ‘line manager’.
UUendy “10-out-of-10″ Alexander was elected by an electoral college, of (AFAIAA):
a third Labour MSPs
a third Scottish Labour MPs/Scottish Labour MEPs
a third unions/members
… or something like that.
They hired her. But who can fire her?
@102:
The blogosphere seems to think not. Since they were both (un)elected by the membership, they have as much authority as each other.
85 Gotta admit,the leaflet,in its portrayal of Edward Timpson as a local family man ,and the issues listed,makes him sound like the ‘nice guy’-I would not bet against him winning
102 Isn’t this Scottish debacle another issue of Brown’s own making.? Why didn’t Brown just say that Scotland had a devolved assembly with its own Scottish Labour Party, which was free to make its own decisions. After all, Cameron has allowed BJ latitude on issues such as immigration where London has a different perspective from the rest of the country. If the Scottish Labour Party think that this is the most propitious moment to have a referendum why is he second guessing them? Let go, Gordon….. or can’t you.
107 - Patrick, what are you wavering towards?
Those naysayers might recall that there were plenty of pundits on PB who thought that Mike and others
were as thick as Nick Soames waistline for recommending Obama at 50/1 and similiar.
………………………
Apologies for not replying sooner after setting the McCain Veep hare running on the last thread.
My own view is that Huckabee has a decent shot. He’ll shore up and energise the seemingly uninterested conservative base and McCain gets on well with the Huckster who also has that easy charm much loved by many Americans.
IMO the 10/1 from Paddy Power is a decent trading bet.
108 - by GB’s warped logic, he probably IS mulling the idea of an early referendum because he thinks it will galvanise the Labour Party and its supporters, distract attention from his woes generally, and scupper the SNP.
‘Red Robbo’ on the BBC Ten last night seemed to think it was being actively considered, and if he is saying that, then it probably is being.
GB does everything by reference to calculating short-term political advantage. Why would a referendum on the Union be any different?
105 - She was ‘elected’ unopposed in the same manner as Gordon.
Tessa for leader of the Labour Party? - ha-ha, I like it, a good spoof Mike.
I wonder about Dave’s strategy for C&N. Will the Cons pull out all the stops for this contest? I suspect that they won’t - Gordon is now their greatest asset, and if Labour wins then he’ll have an excuse to hang on.
61 I very much doubt that Gordon will go of his own volition, although things have now reached the point where such an outcome is conceivable - 10-20% chance maybe? But I do think he will go - the most likely scenarios being either a visit from the men in grey suits or public calls from leading figures calling on him to consider his position. Such calls would soon create an irresistable momentum against him, and it’s obvious that quite a few people (Clarke, McDonnell, Cruddas to name but three) are already preparing for this.
112, a very Chinese form of democracy.
Great article Mike,
Jowell was good on the telly and rekindled thoughts I had about her in the cabinet. Clearly, a stint away from the cabinet table is good for the soul (and the career).
Earlier this week there was definitely a fever around that GB might be on the way out somehow. It feels like this has subsided. Do people agree?
This can be read two ways.
Jack W you have been prescient on US matters. Not so much on UK ones, though. I seem to remember you predicting that the election that wasn’t would be forgotten in a week!
Huckabee… what state is he from again? I think he was in with a shot but had squandered his goodwill by carrying on fighting after McCain was the clear nominee?
OT but the Wendy Alexander thing is amazing. She just totally defied Brown in Holyrood. She has almost unlaterally declared Scots independence by refusing to bow to the UK PM on this.
I think Mike, you should make Stuart Dickson’s day and let’s have a thread about Scotland!
118 I agree, this entire thing is looking worse and worse for Brown now. He’s being openly defied by the leader of his party in scotland.
115. Jonathan. My view is that he will be gone this year. There is now a crisis of confidence in his ability to do the job. It is no longer a Labour Party matter. I feel the country needs and will demand a change in leadership
117 Test. How very dare you !!!! …. did our Gordon not forget about the election that never was and was never intended to be, ever ever ever !!
Huckabee was the Govenor of Arkansas until last year.
120. Or better still of government. For while Brown is certainly very bad, those around him are little better. The malaise is deep-seated and pervasive.
watch this and cry laughing
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7389459.stm
especially the bit about 80% of scots want a referendum so why not do it now. errr EU treaty anyone. the utter shameless, disgustiing duplicity of Labour laid bare.
But as gordon said, she didnt actually call for a referendum. hes gone in days/weeks
117 - He was the 49th Governor of Arkansas (form same town as Bill Clinton - Hope, AR).
I think he is a great trading bet, and I think he would be fantastic on the campaign trail, as he seems energised by it not broken by it.
I think McCain will reward loyalty, and the winner (both personal and party loyalty prize) if that were the case would be Pawlenty, esp when you consider he could help in Minnesota and Wisconsin, which were very narrow wins for the Dems in 2000 and 2004.
Charlie Crist is another good bet (esp v Hillary), though Obama will almost certainly lose Florida, so he doesn’t add as much to the ticket as you might think.
Mitt Romney, for the cash, as favourite - nonsense, and might refuse, so as to run clean against incumbant Dem in 2012 or 2016.
Marc Ambinder on whither Hillary as Veep :
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/would_clinton_accept_the_veep.php
Michael White is reporting that the Prime Minister did not attend Gwyneth Dunwoody’s funeral. I would have thought he would want to pay his respects to someone who had served their community for so long with such popularity. Maybe he wants to be unpopular? Just an idea.
Eric Joyce and Chris Bryant must be shaking their heads in disbelief that still, after all this time, nobody recognises the blindingly obvious fact that they and only they are the saviours the Labour Party should be looking to.
On the Wendy Alexander thing, what struck me most yesterday was that David Cameron was actually quite poorly briefed. All his quotes came from the wrong interview - the Politics Show on Sunday. Her support for a referendum had become far more explicit by the time she went on Newsnight Scotland on Tuesday, so if Cameron had produced the killer quotes from that interview, Gordon Brown would have looked even more ridiculous (if that’s possible).
Has the Labour Party ever removed a leader against his wishes? I can’t see it happening this side of an election.
People will get bored of kicking Gordon by the autumn. Doesn’t mean they’ll be suddenly enamoured with Labour; but part of the reason for the febrile atmosphere is the suspicion that something dramatic might be afoot. As it becomes clear Gordon’s staying where he is, the fevered speculation will be replaced by a sort of resigned foot-tapping as he runs down the clock to the next GE.
127. Perhaps both Conservative voters in Scotland were watching ER on C4 ?
@128:
People will get bored of kicking Gordon by the autumn.
Are you prepared to stake any funds on that assertion?
128 errr Tony Blair?
128. People may get bored with kicking Brown but it would be wrong indeed to assume that will help Labour. As with Major, the public mood will shift from anger to contempt.
126 - I met up with one of her former staff members the other night. Words couldn’t express how highly he rated her, and how she was every bit as decent as a person as she was admirable as a professional. I’m am a little surprised, and actually quite irked, that the PM didn’t attend - if just as a Committee Chair she deserved to have the Leaders of the parties attend her funeral, especially as it was opposite Parliament (as opposed to in C&N). Disappointing.
126 “Michael White is reporting that the Prime Minister did not attend Gwyneth Dunwoody’s funeral.”
Disgusting. She was a great woman.
Jack - is there any VP choice that can deliver to McCain a state he wouldn’t otherwise get?
(Guiliani will not deliver NY. He was being outpolled by McCain in NY, and therefore cannot overcome the 5 to 1 D-R ratio in NYC).
128 Not since George Lansbury in 1935. But this does not make Gordon’s position any more secure.
Jowell ‘You cannot be serious’….but it if generates even more posts it may help your advertising revenues - hits per day etc.
Patronising, and hardly numerate are two of her clearest qualities. She couldn’t run a bath on her own. Can she be trusted with any project or budget after the London Olympic fiasco. As for not knowing about how her husband repaid the mortgage, her explanation just beggars belief. You don’t just pay off a £300K mortage without some consideration of where the money came from, or some alternative uses of a ‘windfall’.
The return of Tony Blair would be more likely than the promotion of Tessa Jowell.
Gordon Brown’s career is like an episode of ‘Desparate Housewives’, full of implausible changes in plot with more twists and turns than a corkscrew.
130 - No!
131 - Well, not really. He clung on by his fingertips for a good two years after he said he’d go, regardless of how much Gordon Brown stamped on them. Any other party would have forcibly shoved him out the door long before. The Labour Party just tutted and sighed and looked pointedly at their watches and then reluctantly made him another cup of tea.
132 - Agreed.
137 - if TB hadn’t been so keen to give up his seat with such indecent haste, I bet someone by now would have called for his return.
In fact, he might be back in No 10 already…
@138:
Presumably, with Brown, Labour are just getting to the yawning softly phase, and politely referring to the fact that it’s getting rather late and they have an early start in the morning.
Must be a quiet day in politics for Tessa Jowell to make an appearance as a possible Labour Leader. Won’t happen. I though her performance last week was woeful admittedly under trying circumstances.
There are plenty of examples of less experienced candidates than Jacqui Smith being elevated to the top job and gaining the ultimate prize Major for example. She could probably do with being reshuffled away from the Department of Not Fit for Purpose to the FO or even the Treasury in order to prove herself again and keep a high public profile.
Think your mystery male candidate must be Ken. He is similarly great odds at 100/1 who passes the instant glance test with flying colours otherwise it must be Jiohn Hutton at 25/1 if we are looking for value.
Latest Rasmussen Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 43% .. Clinton 48%
McCain 44% .. Obama 46%
Clinton 43% .. Obama 47%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Brian Taylor, BBC Scotland’s political editor:
- “So where are we now after the exchanges at first minister’s questions?
A little clearer about this remarkable controversy - and a step closer to a referendum on Scotland’s future.
… it would appear we are more likely than not to be facing a consultative referendum, called by Holyrood, during the present session which runs until 2011.
[Wendy Alexander] fears, privately, that Labour could do badly in a 2010 UK General Election, lending further succour to the SNP.
Mr Salmond is adamant he will adhere to his stated timetable of calling a referendum in 2010. That timing seems decidedly more probable.
One [Scottish Labour MP] called Wendy Alexander a “liability”. Another, with an eye to impact rather than taste and discretion, called her a “political suicide bomber”.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/briantaylor/2008/05/not_just_any_referendum.html
Tomorrows headline ” Brown Breaks Britain” thats another 5% off Labours poll ratings
Hillary’s Super-Delegate lead down to 11.5
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pT_z8d3gptJ8U9nBteEAWXg
DC and GO were at GD’s funeral today..
This Scots issue is a major test for Gordon - the Leader of the Labour Party, famous for his control of the Scots Labour Party, being faced down by the leader of the Scots Parliamentary Labour Party. There should only be one winner of course, Gordon Brown, but it will be messy.
So there goes Re-Launch IV, look forward to Re-Launch V after the defeat at C&N and on 42 days. Wouldn’t be surprised if in that Re-Launch the bin tax was binned, 3 million homes mentioned, extra help to first time buyers, a clamp down on anti-social behaviour etc etc etc.
135 Test. As Morus indicated @ 124 Crist in Florida would make Florida a much more difficult pick up for Obama.
No other contenders hit the mark in terms of being a deal breaker in a swing state.
136 - Lansbury wasn’t officially forced out he resigned when it was made (semi-publicly) clear to him he didn’t have the confidence of his colleagues.
You don’t think FL would go Dem, surely, Jack? Despite swing state predictions it’s been Republican for a while now. A good five points at the last GE. FL is going for McCain anyway, esp. with its large Jewish vote whom I don’t think will vote Obama even if they are yellow dog Dems.
120 My pb.com prediction in the competition was that Gordon leaves office on 27th June.
Go on Gordon - just for once, do the right thing!
145 thank you, Sir Harry, that makes me proud.
DC goes to Dunwoody’s funeral and her own leader can’t be bothered.
Must say I can’t see Tessa Jowell as PM, but then I don’t know much about her. What I do know is that her name seems to summon up lots of bad things when I hear it… wasn’t she embroiled in some sort of scandal?
David Miliband looks like a geek, Charles Clarke like an elephant, Cruddas a loony left winger…
The only sensible choice would be Straw, surely, but then he’d just look like a caretaker to lead Labour to a respectable defeat and subsequent regeneration…
Oh dear for the Labour party.
143. Alexander suffers from the same personality bypass as her brother, GB Des B and Darling. John Reid is the only recent Scottish poltician (Labour in Westminster)to possess anything resembling charisma. Shame he didn’t have the balls to take Brown on. He seems to be pretty tied up at the moment too.
The “election” of GB and WA should show the Labour party that it is better to have a good old fashioned bit of blood-letting where flaws are shown up than these disastrous coronations.
Missed her interview on Tuesday but it was so bad they reran most of it last night. Appalling.
Oh dear for the Labour party
Perhaps your finest ever post.
Mike - just read this and have one question.
Is it the April 1st already?
135 - If you think New York is out of reach (even with Giuliani or Pataki), then you’re limited to the following:
RHODE ISLAND - Gov Carcieri might help out, but only if McCain was already making a big swing into the North East (implies a 5%-8% lead nationally)
MINNESOTA - Gov Tim Pawlenty brings it back from having gone to both Gore and Kerry
CONNECTICUT - Joe Lieberman doesn’t win McCain CT in my opinion, but I’m sure Mr Partridge would tell you differently. Daily Kos has commissioned a private poll that demoinstrates the extent of the State’s ‘buyer’s remorse over re-electing him as an Independent. Gov Jodi Rell would be a better bet.
MAINE - Sen Olympia Snowe maybe, as Sen Susan Collins is running to keep her seat
VERMONT - Gov Jim Douglas is probably not expecting a call, but Vermont is unpredictable and stuffed full of independents.
Sen Arlen Specter (R-PA) has just been sadly re-diagnosed with cancer, so he will not be chosen. If it were to be a Senator or Governor who wasn’t from a GOP safe state, I’d suggest George Voinovich of Ohio (ex Mayor and ex Governor).
Is this another example of Brown dithering - he agrees the approach with Wendy because it seemed like a good idea at the time - she went ahead - it then ran into some flak - DC put GB on the spot and he dithered - backed off and denied it . Wendy keeps going - GB is in a hole
149 Test. IMO one of the big mistakes that some pundits are making is thinking that the 2000/2004 elections are the markers for 2008.
If Obama is brave enough to put Hillary on the ticket I think it entirely likely that we’ll see a landslide of Reaganesque proportions leaving McCain nursing Arizona and a handfull of states in the Old South and Mid West.
Tessa Jowell,your having a laff!
-She doesn’t even know / remember when she has £ 400,000 in her bank account.
-She is responsible with Livingstone for the Olympic costs escalation from £ 2.5 billion to £20 billion???
-Too new Labour.
-No obvious base of supporters in her party
Caroline Flint at 25/1 is a better bet.
The worst value is G Hoon @ 33s - not in a million years..
120. stjohn - “It is no longer a Labour Party matter. I feel the country needs and will demand a change in leadership.”
Agreed.
I think that the impending constitutional crisis, perhaps/probably involving the dissolution of the United Kingdom, will lead to the monarchy, and MI6, making some very anxious, high-level enquiries. Not to mention the people who really run the UK/England: Whitehall.
This is getting big now. Very, very big. Brown is way out of his depth now.
@152:
Isn’t respectable defeat and subsequent regeneration about the best Labour can hope for now?
143. I had never watched First Ministers Questions before today.
My goodness, Salmond is fierce isn’t he? Not in a bad way - he’s really hit his stride as a booming, authoritative man of stature.
Wendy, by comparison, looked a little bit sullen; a bit like an older sister who thinks she’s far too smart to be told to go and play with her kid brother.
Gordo watch update :
From the BBC website:
“Prime Minister Gordon Brown was unable to attend the service as he was travelling to Northern Ireland to meet Irish counterpart Brian Cowen and New York mayor Michael Bloomberg.”
P.S. Spot the odd one out of those 3 - prize is a broken no 10 mobile phone.
148. Did Lansbury go on the grounds of ill health? Edmund Dell’s book points the finger at Ernest Bevin, who delivered a highly critical speech at the 1935 Party Conference. I assume that Lansbury’s pacificism was seen as a liability at the time that Hitler was consolidating power in Germany.
127. Frances - “On the Wendy Alexander thing, what struck me most yesterday was that David Cameron was actually quite poorly briefed. All his quotes came from the wrong interview - the Politics Show on Sunday. Her support for a referendum had become far more explicit by the time she went on Newsnight Scotland on Tuesday, so if Cameron had produced the killer quotes from that interview, Gordon Brown would have looked even more ridiculous (if that’s possible).”
You have hit the nail on the head there!! That is exactly what I was thinking yesterday!!
127. Frances - “On the Wendy Alexander thing, what struck me most yesterday was that David Cameron was actually quite poorly briefed. All his quotes came from the wrong interview - the Politics Show on Sunday. Her support for a referendum had become far more explicit by the time she went on Newsnight Scotland on Tuesday, so if Cameron had produced the killer quotes from that interview, Gordon Brown would have looked even more ridiculous (if that’s possible).”
You have hit the nail on the head there!! That is exactly what I was thinking yesterday!!