YouGov reports a 26% Tory lead
May 8th, 2008
Appalling news for Labour from the pollster that got Boris-Ken right
In what is perhaps the most sensational opinion poll for decades the pollster that got the London Mayoral election spot on, YouGov is tonight reporting a 26% lead for the Conservatives.
The shares are CON 49%: LAB 23%: LD 17%
The last survey from the firm had an 18% Tory lead so this is a very big shift upwards.
Clearly Gordon Brown and Labour have had an appalling week and the fact that the Tories can win something big, the London mayoralty, indicates almost certainly that a sea change is taking place.
Before people start knocking YouGov it is worth remembering that in the days after Gordon’s conference speech last September the pollster was recording the biggest Labour leads of any media-commissioned survey.
The big question now is what this will do to the overall political environment.
Clearly the Tories have to take Crewe and Nantwich if this really is the state of public opinion.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Whaaaaaaat? *grins like the Cheshire Cat*
Jesus Christ
is the only person who can save Gordon now.
I’ve got 20/1 on Gordon leaving in 2008. I’d make it evens if that poll is correct.
Holy Moses!!!!
Is Smithson’s Law of Rogue Polls in operation here?
Even bearing it in mind, this HAS to be a rogue poll if the figure is right.
Some might say:
Not good enough. Labour needs to be in single digits and Gordon Brown about to kill himself if the Tories are to win with a majority of 2 at the next election.
I’m not surprised. Gordon has shot himself in the foot …
… the other foot, both arms, all vital organs, his brain and his a*se.
Gordon needs to be disarmed before he does any more damage to himself and his loved ones.
Its over. Labour MP’s will go native, end of cabinet Govt, not if but when. Et tu Brute?
PS Can the BBC avoid mentioning it. We shall see…………..
And this is BEFORE the Scottish referendum fiasco filters through.
Incidentally, where are our Daves?
#5 - it doesn’t have to be a rogue poll as the Labour share isn’t that different from nationwide projections of the vote from the council elections last week. The Tories are up 5 points, which is more difficult but not impossible to believe.
I make it a Tory majority of almost 300 on those shares of the vote.
Gordon Bennett! I’m trying to work out what the figures are to produce that kind of lead!
Oh no. Thats too much. Someone please say they will vote for Gordon NOW!
11, where’s Ave It?:p
* Gives consideration to rogue poll theory*
*does happy dance anyway*
8. They may as well go postal
11 Is there enough room?? Mike….. Have you got enough Daves?
My prediction that Brown would only go with a series of 25% vote shares in polls was said in the knowledge that it wouldn’t happen.
The thing is, it is happening.
Maybe he will go.
Electoral Calculus prediction
Con 469
Lab 129
LD 24
Con Majority 288
Is it too premature to mention the word ‘landslide’?
21, yes, but never mind.
It’s Brown trouser time for Gordon.
20 God help us if that happens.
I wouldn’t want any party to get a 288 seat majority.
22. Gordon Brown = Dead Man Walking
The figures are on teh previous thread (I posted first as I hear it on Sky News!)
Con 49
Lab 23
LD 17
Oth 11
19. The other issue is that the Liberal Democrats will surely have to stop defending them now. They wouldn’t want to become infected with the bad feeling by association.
Tories are going to have to start lying to pollsters.
I have been saying that the Cons should get a landslide at Crewe, on the basis of this it will be a tsunami as well.
This time in English -
The figures are on the previous thread (I posted first as I heard it on Sky News!)
etc.
21 yes. just about.
CON 49% / LAB 23% / Lib Dem 17% gives in seats
CON 461 / LAB 138 / Lib Dem 23 / Others (inc NI) 28 seats.
Tory majority of 272.
I don’t think this is a rogue (ie accurately reflects what people are thinking at the moment) but I cannot see this figure staying as it is through a GE campaign. It’s too tiring to hate anything this much for too long.
I think the lead is accurate, but very soft.
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE poll of polls that comprises ICM, Populus, YouGov, CR and MORI that gives :
Con 41.8% .. Lab 27.6% .. LibDem 19.2% .. Others 11.4%.
The PISSED Wells/Baxter Index with added SOAMES weighting shows :
Con 370 seats .. Lab 200 .. LibDem 48 .. Others 32.
Con majority of 80.
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED …Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
26. They should also be looking at replacing them as the opposition, if this poll is anywhere near accurate.
31 Sorry, that was from Wells http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/swingcalculator.php
25 Could actually have been worse. Labour still clear in 2nd place. It’s pretty dreadful for them however… And the Conservatives best poll since?? 1987?
23. A 288 majority or a 140 majority doesn’t make much difference does it?
Just a thought. Now people think Labour is right down to its bedrock, is it possible that a shy Labour factor is kicking in?
The media is increasingly giving the impression that the only people still supporting Labour are
(1) desperate loyalists like Polly Toynbee (and Roger) who insist on burying their head in the sand and spreading increasingly ridiculous scare stories about what the Tories will do in power; and
(2) people on sink estates who are totally disengaged from political debate.
Now, obviously, this isn’t true. But no one wants to be thought of as belonging to either of these groups.
31 “I don’t think this is a rogue (ie accurately reflects what people are thinking at the moment) but I cannot see this figure staying as it is through a GE campaign. It’s too tiring to hate anything this much for too long”
I think that’s fair enough (though I still don’t believe 26%, wonderful though it is). I just don’t see such figures happening at an election, or figures anything like them. 280 majority? No way.
If even the voters can see what damage Labour has done to Britain, the damage is great indeed.
Perhaps at the next election, Conservatives can run retro 70s ads. They apply today as they did in 1979.
Hezbollah has declared war on the Lebanese government:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/05/08/lebanon.hezbollah/index.html
I would have rubbished this poll before the Mayoral elections. Now who dares take on the might of YouGov?
Even so… this can’t be real. It just can’t. Can it?
15 - I’m not in his league, but I feel someone shoudl try:
“CON GAIN Rhondda Cynon Taff” LOLOLOLOL
“CON GAIN 39 Victoria Street, London SW1H 0HA” LOLOLOLOLOL
“CON GAIN EVERYTHING” LOLOLOLOLOL
It’s actually harder than it looks….
Not surprised at all. How low can you go.
31. I’m going to stick my neck out and say that the Lib Dems would make net gains on these figures. Of course, a handful of southern seats would fall to the Tories, but as last Thursday showed Clegg has firmed up the position there. And literally swathes of Labour seats in Sheffield, Liverpool, Hull and Newcastle would fall if the Lib Dems got to within 6% of the Labour vote.
41. My thoughts entirely.
Bert and Ernie discuss the Democratic nomination -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mwTCzjE-3TM&eurl=http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/05/burt-and-ernie.html
33. No and I don’t for one minute think that an election would turn out quite as severe a drubbing (even 140 seat Con majority) for Labour but the writing is on the wall for brown and Co.
So what comes first do you think?
1. Cabinet reshuffle
2. Move to slap down Wendy Alexander (who will really be bothered now)
3. Move to oust Brown
4. Yet another relaunch Brown touring the TV channels
5. Stick heads in sand call it a minor setback and say there’s plenty of time to turn it round.
That’s a bit sub-optimal, isn’t it? No further comments!
42 try this one:
CON GAIN 10 DOWNING STREET
This is more than two and a half Rogers…
44 I suppose we’ve never seen a REAL clash of Lib Dems strong incumbency with a resurgent Conservative party. They’ve held out in the past, but could they against figures like this. You’re right about the decent performances in many areas in these locals, but would that be the case in a national election with a desire for a new government? You’re right about the northern massive gains of course.
I’m waiting for the 26 happy Cameron pictures!
Sky ticker reports worst score for Labour since records began in the 1930s
Commiserations Nick Palmer. Your politics are against everything I stand for and I support your opponent but I respect you tremendously as a person.
With Gordon Brown’s smug, liar, too clever by half attitude Labour have only got further to fall. This week in PMQs we had Brown denying what everyone knows to be true.
The wheels have completely fallen off Labour, along with the facade of lies.
20% beckons.
Labour is finished as a party. Labour’s only hope is anti-democratic measures whilst still in power.
48. Time to start searching the job ads Nick. Maybe a European parliament seat?
47 all of them….
49. You beat me to it
damn!
48. You’re best off getting out of politics mate! People as decent as you shouldn’t be around for what Labour is about to do to itself.
Anyone got any Lib Dem membership forms?
48
I would be interested to hear what Nick is now hearing on the doorstep….
Another U-Turn from a dithering government.
Government delays final stage of HIPs roll-out
Published by Jon Land for 24dash.com in Housing on Thursday 8th May 2008 - 2:03pm
Government delays final stage of HIPs roll-out
The final stage of the roll-out of controversial Home Information Packs is being delayed, the Government said today.
It is putting off the requirement for homeowners to compile one of the packs before they market their home until the end of the year.
Homeowners in England and Wales are currently allowed to begin marketing their property as soon as they have ordered a Home Information Pack (HIP), but the Government previously said that from June 1 they would not be able to put their home up for sale until they had a pack.
The U-turn comes the day after the Communities and Local Government Department dismissed as “speculation” reports that it was planning to push back the June deadline until the end of the year.
The Government is also delaying the requirement for the lease to be included in Hips for leasehold properties
When will Nick P be brave enough to sponsor a vote of no confidence in our wretched Prime Minister??
47. 5 I guarantee.
48 - that’s probably wise at this time
UPDATE A graphic with 26 grumpy Gordons has just been added
BBC humorous headline of the day
” Great tits cope well with warming ”
made me chuckle, very childish.
No reason why it should be a rogue. Eye-popping though. I wonder what the “ah but in 1995 the Labour party had leads of up to 30%” brigade will say now.
64. My brain can barely process it!
48 I echo test’s comment. I think it’s tremendously brave for you to post here at all, Nick. Salute you for it. Hopefully a (much) lower than national swing in Broxtowe when the time comes.
Here’s a thought:
If YouGov had been as trusted/proven in September as it is now, would Gordon have called the election?
To whom and exactly what is Gord “listening” to ?????
64 - crumbs, all those grumpy Gordons. Maybe we could have had 13 dismayed Browns and 13 beaming Daves, break it up a bit….
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article1142543.ece
“The results are devastating to Labour.
But they make it clear to MPs they would be insane to ditch Mr Brown.
Our poll shows that Labour would be in deeper trouble even if they were led by Tony Blair.
And it confirms potential successors Ed Balls, David Miliband, Jack Straw, Harriet Harman, Andy Burnham, Alan Johnson and James Purnell would ALL make things even worse in voters’ eyes.
Asked if voters would back Labour under a different leader, all of the suggested alternatives have a minus net reading.
This means they would all make Labour’s position in a general election worse. “
71, 12 happy Daves, 12 frowny Browns and 4 Cleggnuts, 2 facing each way
69 a thought that will haunt Gordon forever, perhaps
The only downside to this is if Labour do take the courage to remove Brown. If they do then things might change. It’s those circumstances which would make me open to backing Labour on the spreads seats fairly soon - but I wouldn’t want to bet on the basis of Labour MPs having the guts to do it.
44. I’m inclined to agree. I don’t see the Tories getting a particularly large majority until they make major inroads in the big Northern cities, which they show no sign of doing. The Lib Dems will make surprisingly good gains against Labour in the North and suffer surprisingly few casualties in the South, where their council vote in particular seems to be holding up well. Especially in seats with incumbent LD MPs, such as Eastleigh and Winchester.
cont.
“YouGov asked voters if they would be more or less likely to vote Labour if a string of candidates were leader instead of Mr Brown.
Taking the two results, Tony Blair would have a minus three rating.
Justice Secretary Jack Straw would be on minus four and Foreign Secretary David Miliband the same.
Health Secretary Alan Johnson would also be on minus four as would Culture supremo Andy Burnham.
Work and Pensions Secretary James Purnell notched up minus five.
And least popular would be deputy Labour leader Harriet Harman and Schools Secretary Ed Balls, both on minus 10. “
75. Fear of the end of your political career might be a bigger motivator than courage.
That’s a bit crazy. The question is can they hold it even to August? If they do then we’re looking at a Tory majority in 2010 no doubt.
A few months of polls like this and it would take a lot to shift anywhere near a close election.
I’m starting to think the Brown Bounce was more a reaction to the attempted acts of terrorism in Glasgow and London.
I’d imagine the Tories would have the lead in every age bracket and every social class on this poll.
Contrary to Sun’s editorial. Possibly better to roll of the dice with an unknown leader than the certainty of this. This poll is not a surprise, the week post election has been abysmal. Time’s running out fast Gordon! Will the men in grey suits intervene?
76. I see the Labour spin operation has begun already…
Bye bye Gordon
Third bizarre thread of the day.
MCCAIN WAS AT THE DAILY SHOW YESTERDAY
http://www.thedailyshow.com/
81. I’m no Labour supporter, but i do think these figures overestimate the extent of Tory support in the North.
66. That is about the only point thus far today I can fully agree with. There is no way this rating is sustainable and it won’t be sustained.
So much about politics is managing expectations, and this doesn’t really help us manage ours.
Labour have only got to gain a point or two and -even though they will still be testing their lowest ever levels of support- the headlines and sentiments will shift to ‘now the worst is over’ or ‘medicine begins to work’ whereas for us the likely next poll move is, I am afraid to say, probably down; and then we have one hell of a job keeping the feeling of momentum going.
Having said that this surely does put to bed all those doubters who didn’t believe we could win the next election.
Mind yo as I said the other day, nothing is likely to cause more anxst in Labour MP’s ranks than the possibility of Scotland leaving the union, because they will all lose their jobs.
The last Labour Government was ended prematurely over the devolution issue by the Scottish Labour MP’s. Could this one go the same way?
80. Jonathan, what is your guess regarding what is likely to happen to GB? Do you think he will still be there at the end of the year?
80. Would you expect a new leader to go straight to the country then. I can see the opposition parties making hay (two consecutive leaders without a mandate) if Labour tried to drag it out?
re 48. Thanks for coming on Nick and I love your comment “..a bit sub-optimal”
85. I agree that this isn’t a “hard” result, but it does show Labour has virtually no base left - which means this could be returned to every time the media narrative favours Cameron.
I’m having to stop myself feeling sorry for Gordon Brown because this is just woeful for Labour.
Will Sir Lying Shite being slating yougov again I wonder?
89. Very true.
72/77
Politics would be livelier if Ken Livingstone were to win a safe seat.
IMHO he is the man to lead NuLabour out of the doldrums and bags more charisma than Gord.
Time alone will tell!
80 - Should they?
I’m postponing rapture until C&N. The Conservatives really do now have to win the seat. If they do - and I think they will - the impact of the first by-election gain in 26 years could be remarkable.
(I still think Brown will remain leader until the next election).
Mike, If I wanted to place a small bet on the lifespan of a leaders tenure, where’s the best place to do it today?
86,87 No Comment!
44 and 76 I think certainly they would feast on Labour but certainly ten LD seats would go Tory maybe up to fifteen on those figures. Which Newspaper is the Poll for
Why the surprise? Some of us have been saying it for a while. I predicted, the other day, a further fall in the Labour vote - speculating that their bedrock might be much lower than the 30%, or even the 25% we all presume. So where are we headed now?
23, 22, 21….
They have lost the white working classes, so who remains?
Put it another way: Labour are no longer just disliked - they are despised, reviled and ferociously rejected. They are The Worst Government in British History. They killed half a million, and now they are trying to dismember Britain for party advantage.
Go away Labour. Just go away. Go away now. Everyone, but everyone, hates you.
The Sun have dropped Mori for Yougov. Does this indicate a change in their outlook?
81. Harry, How on earth can that be Labour Spin? Lib Dem spin maybe.
Agree with others impressed with Nick posting under the circumstances.
95, yes, but what do you really think?:p
I think my predictions in the New Year contest are not going to turn out to be very accurate. Yet another thing Brown’s to blame for!
Any voter who saw the Wendy interviews and Gordon’s denials could only form one opinion of Gordon Brown. And it’s not very flattering and certainly not one to be associated with a PM.
92 - very possibly true
I’d go so far as to say, if Boris makes even a reasonable fist of being London mayor that it’s a truism that only Boris could have beaten Ken and only Ken could beat Boris
It will be interesting to see if Ken tries to regain London, seeks a return to parliament or retires from front-line politics
How would Labour MPs go about removing Brown? What’s the party procedure for a leadership challenge, is it like the Conservatives (i.e. x% of MPs siigning a no confidence motion?)
99. Brown’s problem is he acts more dislikeable when confronted with bad news, which is a vicious circle in these circumstances.
According to Sky News the poll results show that Labour would do even worse with any of ‘the others’ leading. Others include Milliband and Balls. Some good news for Gordon then.
I mistrusted YouGov but deferred my final judgement till post London mayor. YouGov are on the money, give or take. I expect the LDs in a national poll with media exposure may get 3% more.
Oh, and Labour will come third in C and N.
85 - how jolly sensible, Marcus. You’ll go far; much farther than those of us whose immediate reaction was to reach for the fridge and grab some alcohol with which to celebrate…..
101, I think they have to do it at a conference, and need X% of MPs, which equates to 70 for this Parliament given the size of the PLP.
The big problem for Labour has been its attempt to paint itself as post-ideological. That has left an empty shell of a party, the previous base left behind and uncultivated.
What is the base level?
It’s a good thing Brown doesn’t pay any attention to polls or Nokia would have to start building a new factory to cope with this.
77 - that’s the real killer. If Labour had a Heseltine type figure, a respected and recognised politician who was not tainted by association then they would have a chance of improving under a new leader. Robin Cook might have done it but I don’t see anyone now. Right now they are damned no matter what they do. If they stick with Brown… . If they replace him (quite apart from the problems in doing that unless he falls on his sword)the general public reaction will be that they’re a load of gutless self-servers who are only interested in their perks. In particular people will want to know why they couldn’t even muster a token opponent last year. They daren’t have an election now but it probably will get worse with the kind of economic news we’re likely to see over the next 14 months. If they’re clear sighted they need to get into damage limitation mode now and start thinking about how to prevent a massacre and maybe even deny the Tories a majority. They won’t of course.
Woah, almost 50% of the share for the Tories, epic!
Hey guys, let’s not get too carried away. All this was before Gordon appeared on ‘This Morning’!
77 - So Gordon Brown is the most popular leader they could have at the moment? Ouch.
105 - that’s exactly what I did! Reached for the Zywiec. It would have been the champers but I’m saving that for my 30th at the end of this month
Helluva hole to clamber out of, especially if you are in appalling, unrepayable debt (although the unions *might* stump up the £20 million… for a price, the price being the ditching of the ‘New’ in New Labour and Cruddas at the helm) and your grass-roots organisation has dissolved, all but few a few stalwarts on heavy pain-ontrol.
109, a strong argument for keeping Gordon. They can’t have a fresh start, and they’d all do slightly (or very) worse. So let him take the hit, and then the vultures will appear to pick over the carcass.
84 I dont think you realise how angry the people are.
Labour has given our country away to foreigners. Our futures, our pensions, our children’s futures, all handed over to foreigners.
Labour now starts talking about ‘restricting skilled workers’. Since when did Britain need foreigners to survive? Britian is/was a modern western country. Britain was responsible for 40% of the 20thCentury inventions. Britian produces skilled workers. Labour should be talking about ‘training & retaining skilled workers’.
Remember when it was possible to get free university education…a well paid job…a home…medical treatment? Not anymore. Now we have to share it with hoards of immigrants and we have to prove we are British in our own country.
84 I dont think you realise how angry the people are.
Labour has given our country away to foreigners. Our futures, our pensions, our children’s futures, all handed over to foreigners.
Labour now starts talking about ‘restricting skilled workers’. Since when did Britain need foreigners to survive? Britian is/was a modern western country. Britain was responsible for 40% of the 20thCentury inventions. Britian produces skilled workers. Labour should be talking about ‘training & retaining skilled workers’.
The British have turned against Labour. Labour is the immigrant party.
Alan Milburn
Marcus is right in his assessment. We’ll struggle to better this poll and the summer always brings a dip for us (all those tories going on their foreign holidays). However, it will take a comeback of epic proportions for Labour to recover from this.
John Denham I think is the man. Resigning over Iraq makes him look principled - lack of principle being Labour’s central problem .
109
very true. And the economic news is going to get much worse…MUCH worse.. All the forward looing stats suggest we’re going to go into a recession Q3… size unknown. Hardly surprising due to food and energy inflation.
Gov’t tax take will be hit hard… and stamp duty on house sales!
Batten down the hatches time…
And it is interesting .. all the coal miners are reporting BIG invreases year over year in contracts for coal prices.. like 250% increases. This is good news for coal miners and bad news for power producers. The Chinese use coal for power and have minimal stocks after the winter blizzards. So expect steel prices to rise as well..
115. If you were a Labour MP, you’d rather the recovery began before you lost your seat.
115 if I was a Labour strategist (which thank the Lod I’m not sir) I’d be worrying like mad about possible anti-Labour tactical voting. If you write off the chances of a win at the next election then the job is to stop that from happening because if it doeas you’ll get 1. a real Tory landslide 2. A lot of losses to third parties and independents in places the Tory brand can’t reach. That could be fatal. They must be praying the LDs don’t buck their ideas up.
What sour grapes can Heffer & Hitchens throw at the Tories now?
pls excuse gloating but does anyone remember the quote from nickp last october about a “1997 style victory” in the election that never was?
neil kinnock in a duffle coat would be polling better than gordon!
I usually enter at this point to scoff at all you Tory boys and girls who froth a lot and never ever have a bet.
I came on to do just that….but as it happens several large wagers have been struck and not all of them mine.
Still available is 2.08 a CON Overall via the back door.I genuinely commend it to anyone who knows what I’m on about.
God.
Pretty staggering poll. Something that we haven’t seen much speculation about is the possibility of a Labour to Conservative defection or two. These sort of polling numbers might force a few proverbial rats to desert the metaphorical sinking ship.
123. Cue Martin Day. “He nearly is…”
123 seriously - don’t gloat.
I love the way the LDs are tragically spinning this as good news 4 them. their vote is softer than a baby’s bum - even in the north. This is one election party they’re just not invited to.
127 sorry…. i dont know what came over me.
120, of course, but if recovery is impossible you want to mitigate the disaster as best you can, and if changing eladers worsens the situation you won’t do it.
If the government does hang on to the bitter end I wonder if anyone will use the famous Lloyd George remark “They died with their drawn salaries in their hands”?
Will there be an early election, or will they try to hold until 2010?
128. I think it might be an opportunity for the Libdems. The Labour vote is obviously softening significantly. If Clegg can make a good impression in the next few weeks (difficult I know) he could probably swell the levels of Libdem support quite a bit.
76. “44. I’m inclined to agree. I don’t see the Tories getting a particularly large majority until they make major inroads in the big Northern cities, which they show no sign of doing”.
Eh? The comment’s already been made about the Conservatives outpolling Labour in Greater Manchester in the recent local elections. In my own patch, I believe that the Conservatives outpolled Labour across West Yorkshire as a whole i.e. Leeds, Bradford, Huddersfield, Halifax, Wakefield (I haven’t checked this btw, but it feels right).
Where I have got the figures (Bradford Met), there was an 11k lead for the Conservatives over Labour. Breaking this down into constituencies, there was a 10k Tory majority in Shipley (currently very marginal Tory), a 5k Tory majority in Keighley (Ann Cryer, Labour), an 1800 majority for the Lib Dems over Labour in Bradford East (Terry Rooney, Labour), and majorities of less than 2k for Labour in Bradford South and West (Gerry Sutcliffe, Marsha Singh).
There IS evidence of quite a strong Tory recovery in the North, and if the YouGov poll is even remotely accurate, there would have to be.
125. Shaun Woodward?
132, if the economic situation in 2009 hasn’t deteriorated hugely they may go then and try to pass the economic bad times onto the Tories.
However, if it’s gone substantially downhill they’ll hold on until 2010, just like Sunny Jim.
132. I don’t think anyone in Labour has got any idea any more. What can you do? You are ridiculously low in the polls, competiting with another centre-left party. If you go left you’ll lose the centre to the Lib Dems, if you come to the centre you don’t win anyone new because Cameron’s got it all, and your base hate you. They’re royally screwed.
….I wish to add to the many comments re Nick. Bravo!
According to electrol calculus.
Tories Take Glasgow North!
quentin davies………. tool
118. John Denham? Please. Quite apart from the fact that he sits for a southern seat likely to be lost in 2010, the salient fact is that the Problem is Labour, not Brown.
Sure, they have a rubbishy, pathetic, two-faced, cowardly liar of a leader, but he is just a lightning rod for general revulsion at everything Labour stands for. i.e. The whole politically correct, vacuous, lie-when-we-need-to, centre-left, Blairite, triangulating, mass-immigrating Muesli of Multiculti Gobshite.
The whole of Labour is rejected in these figures. We’ve all had enough.
Labour now faces a real chance of complete oblivion. They have no core vote left, outside some client loyalists in the immigrant communities.
I think I said on the last thread (and was criticised for doing so), “f*** off and die, you socialist twats”.
Seems the British public agrees with me.
This revival of the Tories in the north…
So what if they are not going to win Liverpool Riverside or Leeds Central. They do not need to win the inner cities…
Back on 09/01/95 Gallup had CON 18.5%: LAB 62%: LD 14%
UK Polling Report take on things:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1200
140. Oh, I think Labour are screwed regardless. He is just the guy that can stop the decline better than most.
142. The Tories are obviously nowhere near doing well enough to win an election.
does Red crosby give the Tories a majority yet?
142 - Lab Majority of 500+ if that happened!!
Yes Nick. Chin up. Politics is cruel sometimes. But at least you can act, you’re still in the PLP!
Just booted up and come online after a pleasant evening gardening in the sun and now this. I am utterly staggered, I suspected the polls would move to the Conservatives but this is way out there. I mean the Conservatives haven’t actually acheived 49% in an election since the 50’s when Eden got 49.7% and Macmillan got 49%. Who would have believed it in October if someone had told you that before Gordon’s first anniversary Labour would be polling lower than there 1983 election score and the Conservatives would be polling nigh on half the vote?
146. Dunno - but his election simulator is going to! I’ve got it running and its a wipeout.
95. I’ve said for a while that I estimate the core Labour vote to be about 20% and they currently seem determined to test that thesis.
96. If the Conservatives continue to poll at least 10% clear of Labour (never mind 20%+) for the next six months or so, it would surely be odds-on that The Sun will switch its political backing. Apart from anything else, it’s easier to run stories kicking the government that way, and if there’s a constant 10%+ deficit, the public obviously are in a mood to kick the government.
Is this the Boris Bounce?
if there are any blairite outriders passing through tonight - can we note the drop from the low 30s to the low 20s in the polls are a direct result of moving policy further to the right (especially through the redistribution of income from lower earners by abolishing the 10p income tax rate to southern higher earners by implementing tory inheritence tax plans).
the party needs to be moderate and sensible, but it also needs to be recognisably of the centre-left - the alternative is a collapse of support.
lol according to electoral calculus glasgow north would go blue! We can but dream……….
142. Wasn’t there another poll out within a couple of days from a different company that gave a much smaller Labour lead, one quite close to the actual 1997 result?
156. Agreed. But the point is that “Blairism” didn’t preside over the collapse, because Blair continued to inspire a loyal following right to the end. Labour collapsed when it elected the clumsiest triangulator in the business as its leader.
There *is* a way for Labour to get Brown out, if a Cabinet majority goes for it. Helluva big ‘if’, mind.
http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2008/05/the-labour-party-rule-that-allows-for-a-cabinet-coup/
If… if… if that should happen, my money goes on an untainted, Labour purist: Cruddas. Charm, brains, the camera likes him, gift of the gab and honest. Well, when I say ‘honest’… all things are relative. Too late for 2010, but it’s not imposible that he could save them from total oblivion.
154 The Sun will support Brown as long as Brown has power and Murdoch can do business.
142. Interesting. I think this proves we are in 1995 territory for Labour, not 1990. i.e. an impending and generational meltdown.
The difference for Labour is that their position is more serious than the Tories’ in the mid 90s. Because Labour face a serious rival for the position of centre-left opposition - in the Lib Dems. The post-Major Tories always knew they were the only serious rightwing party.
Moreover, Labour face losing their heartland in Scotland outright: either to independence, or to a rampant SNP.
This is terra incognita for British politics. A great party is facing the perfect hurricance, that might just sweep it away once and for all.
Inshallah.
IMO Harperson will be technically hard to beat. She knows how to run a campaign. She will need someone popular to beat her.
156. Yes, if you’re a party of the left then centre-right moves are good as a strategy when you’re on the up and trying to win. Centre-left policies are what you need for consolidation on the way down.
160 Yep. Cruddas.
Cruddas was showing his potential a couple of years ago.
It’s damage limitation time - and any of the rotten bunch of Brown’s lickspittles would only make things worse.
If I were a Lab MP desperate to hang onto my seat, I’d go looking for a man of principle who resonates with at least some of the public.
Frank Field - C’mon down!
137 What could Labour do? Here is one Tory candidates prescription to put Labour right in a hurry:
1) Double the single persons tax allowance and pay for it by introducing a 50p top rate (that’ll please Lib dems and Lefty Labour supporters)
2) Offer a joint referendum to the whole of the UK on a new ‘democratic settlement’ - Scottish independence and the new EU treaty and agree to be bound by the result.
3) Pull our troops out of Iraq and psis off the Americans
4) Change inheritance tax so that the beneficiary pays tax on his or her inheritance at 40% above a threshold of, say, £200k to encourage the breakup of family estates and dissipate accumilated wealth
5) Double the basic state pension.
6) Re-introduce MIRAS
7) Abolish the ‘golden rule’ and change the bank of Englands terms of reference from keeping inflation to below 2% to stopping inflation getting ‘out of control’ and ensuring economic growth is maintained.
9) Join the Euro before the £ goes completely down the pan.
It won’t happen, Brown hasn’t the balls.
I’ve just run Rod Crosby’s election simulator.
Con 450
Lab 116
SNP 35 (based on 33% share of Scottish vote)
LD 27
Con Majority 255
“Electoral Calculus prediction: Con 469, Lab 129, LD 24
Con Majority 288″
Ah, then that would mean…
“I think it might be an opportunity for the Libdems. The Labour vote is obviously softening significantly. If Clegg can make a good impression in the next few weeks (difficult I know) he could probably swell the levels of Libdem support quite a bit.”
According to Electoral Calculus, though, if the Tory vote went up to 49 and Labour dropped to 23, Clegg would lose his seat.
But so would Huhne. So that’s the LibDems leaderless. What about Labour?
“And it confirms potential successors Ed Balls, David Miliband, Jack Straw, Harriet Harman, Andy Burnham, Alan Johnson and James Purnell would ALL make things even worse in voters’ eyes.”
You can cross Balls, Straw and Purnell off the list too.
I’m inclined to dismiss any poll that predicts a landslide that large as overstating the matter. But then, that’s what I also said at 10.04pm on May 1st 1997.
Gordon’s started a war in Lebanon.
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/05/08/lebanon.hezbollah/index.html
161. Except that if Labour is obviously heading for defeat within 18 months, Brown will start losing effective power in the same way that Major did.
That said, I still remain to be convinced about an overall majority. Obviously this poll and the May elections prove it can happen, but it is far from a nailed-on certainty. In fact, I suspect it is still odds-against.
Mike - Crewe & Nantwich. Where can I put some money on ? I believe it will be a very interesting result after doing phone canvassing in 2 different wards. Prediction - Too close to call between Cons and LDs for first. Lab just finishing 3rd.
162 As Prescott said, “Its good to be back on Terra Cotta again”
LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL!
169
C&N will prove the validity of it.
If true it would give a Con majority of around 3-5,000?
I have been consistently saying that Labour won’t replace Brown, and I think I am still of that view but, boy, does this shake my confidence…
The worst part for Labour MPs is that there is now no way back. Perhaps there hasn’t been for a while. Relaunches have been tried and fell flat. The media attitude is one of great scepticism if not outright contempt, so there is little possibility that a major policy announcement will fly. There is little talent to shuffle in, much mediocrity which could be shuffled out. Virtually anything Brown does now will be the wrong response - his once revered calmness, caution and careful judgement will be perceived as indecision or, worse (in Labour eyes), indifference. But if he tries to respond quickly he will be perceived to have panicked, and the inevitable confusion will be contrasted with the once slick operation at No.10. Older Tories will appreciate the schadenfreude.
That said, I don’t expect these numbers would be reflected in a general election tomorrow. I fear shy Labour voters have become a reality, and a combination of this phenomenon with an increase in “soft” Tory support means that polls may cease to be a reliable guide soon. The difficulty with polling is that adjustments can only be made based on an understanding of past trends, and if those trends cease to be relevant or, worse, are reversed, polling may suffer.
Still, happy days for the Tories.
May I respectfully suggest, Mike S, that you introduce a new system for demonstrating mammoth leads - a larger picture of Dave/Gordon (as the case may be) covering the size of four (2×2) smaller pics could be worth ten. You could add a little 10 graphic in the bottom corner to make it clearer. Just a thought.
167. On the side issue of Scotland (not so ancillary a debate today) - there is this presumption that Salmond, if he wants independence, is best advised to wait for an unpopular Tory government in London, then call the referendum. To give himself the best chance of winning.
I’m not sure that is true. It is possible a Cameron government will be deft, emollient and pleasurably different to the rancid old Labourites in power now. So Cammo might not be quite so unpopular in Scotland as the SNP expects (I don’t think the Tories will ever be fervently admired north of the border, but you know what I mean).
Salmond’s best chance might be to seize on Labour’s UNpopularity, while Brown is still in power. i.e. accept the Wendy Alexander proposal - and call a vote now.
Intriguing, anyway.
Calling all Mark Senior fans.
Have I got this wrong but wasn’t there discussion on here that Mark’s words had been used by Ken to attack You Gov?
Can’t remember which thread it was on.
Didn’t he confirm when asked, his consent had been sought and even mention something about payment?
Was he joking and I missed it?
[Am having an argument with him elsewhere and beginning to think I dreamt it!]
Amazingly the spread markets have been slow to react. I’ve just sold Labour at 242 seats and bough the Tories at 338 seats on Sporting index. IG Index has taken its market down.
Spreadfair has moved and there is virtually nothing available for Labour sellers.
166. (9) is incompatible with (7) and (8), although I’d suggest that neither major party could credibly support Euro entry anyhow.
Brown is far less secure because of his personal attachment to the 10p mistake.
“I think they have to do it at a conference, and need X% of MPs, which equates to 70 for this Parliament given the size of the PLP.”
I think that technically there’s another way to do it ….
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5319328.stm
As for Murdoch supporting Brown as long as Brown is in power - maybe. But there could come a point - and if Wendy Alexander may suggest we’ve passed it this week - when Brown is in office, but not in power.
re 174. Yes - the current visual representation of this is a little difficult when dealing with such big numbers.
164 - “Yes, if you’re a p