ICM poll has Tories 4% ahead in Crewe & Nantwich
May 10th, 2008
But how much can we trust single constituency polls?
According to Iain Dale an ICM poll of 1000 voters in Crewe & Nantwich is suggesting that the Tories are on target for their first by-election gain since 1982. The figures are:- CON 43% Lab 39%: LD 16%
Clearly this is a very good pointer for Cameron’s party and the real significance is that it is his party, and not the traditional by election Kings, the Lib Dems who are seen as the party that can take the seat from Labour. If the Lib Dem share had been a bit higher then they could have made the case to Labour supporters that they were the best route to stop the Tories. This poll will put the mockers on that.
A note of caution. As has repeatedly been said here single constituency polls have a reputation of being highly unreliable. In September 2004 NOP has Labour a massive 33% ahead in Hartlepool - the winning margin ended up at 7%. And last year a poll agead of the Gwent by election has Labour comfortably winning back the seat from the independent. The party failed.
The fact that this is ICM gives a good degree of comfort and my view is that the Tories are at least 90% certain to secure comfortable victory.
To another question about how those sampled would vote in a general election the response was the response was: CON 49% Lab 33%: LD 15%.
These general election numbers are sensational. Crewe and Nantwich is listed as the Tories 165th target seat. So for a poll to be suggesting a margin as big as this indicates a Tory landslide and, in many way, supports the latest YouGov national voting intention poll.
UPDATE - There’s an intriguing point in Iain Dale’s report - He says:“I am told the by election figures were adjusted downwards to take account of large number of Labour don’t knows. If they stayed at home on polling day, the Tories would win by 13 points.”
We desperately need to see the details but this might explain the disparity between the by-election figures and those for the general election.
If you tell ICM that you will vote but that you don’t know who that will be for the pollster assumes that 50% will go in line with what they did last time. This is known as the “spiral of silence adjustment”. My guess is that a very large number of 2005 Labour voters answered don’t know and this is what makes up the 13%.
Whatever this poll is very good news for the Tories.
Mike Smithson
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How reliable is a single constituency poll?
Not very, am I right?
That’s very bad publicity for the LibDems.
MB from last thread…it doesnt matter that it is isnt on their GE target list its a by-election and its winnable.
Expect a big and probably proper effort.
And with the MOE - we’re looking at “Too Close To Call” !! Exciting.
1. Some can be - Cardiff & Finchley at the GE weren’t far off.
Looks like the Lib Dem candidate will share the same fate as Paddick.
Mike, there appear to be some massive caveats about this poll (even ignoring the notorious unreliability of single constituency polls).
But that notwithstanding, the interesting question could be what happens to libdem voters if they fail to gain any traction. Will any peel away to the other parties?
1 was Test, 6 was me. Sorry
Test, it appears that my cookie changes every time you post. Weird.
Looks like Labour in the bag to me and if not Labour, it will be the Lib Dems (of course)…
Alex, right now in my comment box it says alex
Testing (this is Test)
6 - Good point. If the Lib Dems can’t win, which way will they swing? I’d suspect towards Labour in the North West.
On the last thread but one I suggested that the Tories were best priced at around 5/6 instead of 2/5. I think this poll confirms that C&N will be nowhere near as bad for Labour as the national polls recently.
Do you have a key to another dimension Alex. Are you in fact the Doctor? I think we should be told.
It doesn’t matter if this is accurate or not; it’ll kill whatever there is of the LibDem campaign stone dead.
Is it a time to get on Labour?
Test - I thought you were vehemently against people posting under multiple names.
Well there is a story:
Prscott urged Blair to fire Brown as Chancellor at one point….
11 & 14 - Yes get on Labour (or the Lib Dems). Tories will NEVER win a by-election.
11) Good point Morus - Lib Dem voters may play “stop the toff” and we know that most Lib Dems would chose Labour over the Conservatives and with a race so close - Labour might actually HOLD C&N!
14 great minds Yokel- I haven’t touched the betfair market as I think has been distorted by the Boris winnings. No value on the Tories at 1.4’s
The internals are brutal for Labour, from Iain Dale
“The Conservatives are in course to win the Crewe & Nantwich By-Election, acfording to an ICM poll for tomorrow’s Mail on Sunday, which I have just been given details of. The figures are…
Con 43, Lab 39, Lib Dem 16.
When asked how people in Crewe & Nantwich would vote in a general election, and not a by election, the result was: Con 49, Lab 33, Lib Dem 15. The gap reflects the popularity of the Dunwoody name in the local by election and the strength of Cameron when put against Brown in general election.
I am told the by election figures were adjusted downwards to take account of large number of Labour don’t knows. If they stayed at home on polling day, the Tories would win by 13 points.
The results for Gordon Brown are very bad indeed. When Labour - repeat Labour voters - were asked who would make the best PM, Brown or Cameron, Cameron wins by 41 to 38. That is among people who voted Labour in 2005!”
18 - “Labour might actually HOLD C&N!”
Not might they will with a VERY COMFORTABLE margin!
11 - Morus have you read the details on Iain’s site though? It says that the Tories are 13 pts ahead before factoring in Labour “don’t knows” (the “shy voter adjustment”). That’s a lot!
1/6 Test is correct. Individual constituency polls have a varied record. However the trend here is clear - Tories as clear challengers and the Lib Dems out with the washing. The yellow peril will do well not to get badly squeezed. Much will depend on how hard Rennard the Fox and Cleggover want to play this by election. Either low key and accept a distant third or fight damn hard and hope to nudge Labour into third.
15 I am, Alex is not me, nor am I Alex. There is a computer gremlin here somewhere.
12. You are alex and I claim my £5.
19 - Tyson is right as always - Labour on course for another comfortable victory. Lib Dems an outside chance. Tories no chance.
It’s alex, not Alex.
And- just another observation this has serious ramifications for the LD’s nationally. The big squeeze is on.
19. Havent gone near C&N yet. Am off to Tescos for 30 minutes to pick up some frozen foods..mainly beer and ice cream products since its one seriously warm night here.
Will have a think about this one.
Pescotts memoirs in the sunday Times tomorrow do look a hoot.
…and ICM overestimate Labour and underestimate the Conservatives.
There is not 10 days to go for all voters, this is when postal voters will start completing their votes.
I read someone saying it was 1/2 the votes. I would expect it to be 1/3 of those who actually vote in most local elections these days, but I have not seen the C&N postal vote shares, has anyone the figs?
Could be a defining moment in the LD by election machine, halted in Ealing Southall and then to get under 20% in C&N would force the LDs back to the drawing board. Tying up 80% of their staff in campaigning will come under the spotlight.
10 Agreed. I’m Tom Knox!
Every time I try to post, in favour of this genuine and wellmeaning, albeit obese, corrupt and hateful, Labour government, my identity keeps telling me I’m some ridiculous, one-time-prisoner, rape-accused, crack-dealing, globe-trotting, quondam Hezbollah kidnapee, ex-smack addict Tory called SeanT.
Enuff already. Here in south Malibu we are deeply in favour of.. errr… whoever that boring guy is you elected as PM. Probably.
28. always gonna happen, new leader or not, at last for a decnt while.
Its called a tilt to two party politics.
Right off to an uncaring multinational..for great price deals…
Perhaps if i reverted back to using a proper email address for a bit the problem might solve itself
The fake one is just much quicker and more convenient! You’re not using a fake email address are you, Test, that just happens to coincide with one i may occasionally have replicated?
22 - I did read it, but I think that adjustment has been made for a reason, and I think it is a valid one. Unless there is a clear error in weightings or adjustments, I’m disinclined to undo them, although your point is well made.
I suspect that if the Tories win, it will be by a very clear majority (8% - 10% lead) off a much-reduced turnout. Otherwise, I still think Labour might just hold on, albeit only by 1%or2% and with help from the Social Democrats
18
Funny boy — someone called my 1.47 bet on Tories.Wins.C&N — was it you?
34 - Of course, it’s just that the formulas I think ICM use for their “shy voter” adjustments are based on General Election outcomes. Much less likely for Labour “don’t knows” to fall in line in a by-election i would have thought.
26- MB- of course I know I am always right, but I didn’t quite say that though.
Just do not want to out money on the Tories at 2/5 on. Doesn’t strike me as a particularly sensible bet.
35) It was Phillipe. You should follow my posts. I really really tried to keep you from backing Hillary and I have been very vocal on here saying that Labour were value in C&N - as have Peter from Putney and Jan from Norway..
And a 9% adjustment must surely be unprecedented and put the whole formula to the test.
Might be close, bu there is still 12 days left, so lets see how the momentum goes, I get the feeling the Conservatives will win, it might be close, but it would be a good swing if they do.
For some reason Mike hasn’t actually linked to my post with the full details of the poll.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2008/05/poll-tories-on-course-to-win-crewe.html
17, 26 - after your predictions for Ken Livingstone last week, I would have thought that you would be a little more cautious this week about Crewe & Nantwich. On 1 May you were professing great confidence that Ken Livingstone would win comfortably.
I don’t place much weight on a single constituency poll, but draw the following conclusions:
1) the Lib Dems are probably well behind (and this poll will do them no good in trying to get momentum)
2) the Tories are more likely than not to be ahead already
3) it is unclear whether “shy Labour voters” who would turn out for a general election would turn out for a by-election
All told, I would regard this as good news for the Tories and bad news for everyone else, with the exception of the Labour officer who persuaded Tamsin Dunwoody to stand - she does appear to be inheriting some of her mother’s personal vote.
it will be the battle of the bar charts
31
You have been kidnapped by Hizbullah?
Why did they let you go?
38
I’ll be so glad to take your money!
26. Can you pls stop this mindless ramping?
Apparently there isn’t much Lib Dem vote to break away to other parties, but to the extent that it does, the question is whether it breaks as more of an anti-Labour vote or as more of an anti-Conservative vote. Given the shambolic state of opinion about Labour, whatever disintegration occurs in the Lib Dem vote will probably break roughly evenly between Labour and Con (also accounting for the normal tendency of the Lib Dem vote to favor Labour). Even if it somewhat tips to Labour, the effect upon the final result will likely be negligible (see effect of Paddick 2nd prefs in London).
Ultimately, it looks like Labour has a shot but is still facing tough prospects, pretty much what others on here have been surmising.
From previous ‘thing.’
36 Robert
Clinton is a dead parrot. Please do not advise people to back her as they will lose their money. I.E.M. has her at a 6.8% chance of winning the nomination. Obama’s figures are almost as McCain’s Republican figures and McCain has no opponent!!
Of the last 19 super delegates to announce endorsements 16 have gone to Obama [including a switch] and only 3 to Clinton. Obama will win the majority of pledged delegates, the majority of states and the popular vote.
If the diminishing number of supers were to go against democratic voters and nominate H Rodham Clinton then they would be p*ssing off voters of colour, huge numbers of youngsters [mainly students] and lots of independents and swing voters. Obama has over a million donors and over a million volunteers waiting for the general [see Huffington Post.] They would lose big-time in November - and they know that only too well.
Its over. Backing Clinton now is financial suicide; Clinton-fanciers would be better to save their money and send it directly to her to help her out of debt.
Its over, c’est finis, kaput, and as I said before its a Monty Python.
I’ve been saying this for weeks, [haven’t I Nick?]
Malcolm - cheeky swine.
UPDATE I’ve now updated the main article with more figures and more analysis. I think this poll is even more sensational than the YouGov 26% lead one.
42) antifrank - just considering betting for a second - don’t forget that one could back Boris @ 1.89 on the eve of the final yougov poll despite the protestations of Mike and a series of yougov polls showing big Boris leads.
The current price spread on Lab/Tories for C&N is going to tighten in the light of this ICM poll. Most of the C&N money has gone on the Conservatives at short prices. This ICM poll will cause a small panic - or a “short squeeze” as equity traders would say.
re 41. I have now Iain.
I think the problem with this site is that is so Tory loaded that it may burn the hands of the more enthusiastic right wingies.
C&N will be a difficult seat for the Tories to take- value would be much closer to evens
What this poll shows is that you can quite comfortably rule out the spinach eating, sandal wearing, 2 CVers at this early stage.
44 - How much of seanT in captivity do you think the average person could take? 24-hour guards - they’d be mental after three days.
I doubt any Lebanese terrorist has the wherewithall to match Secret agent TOM KNOX in a battle-to-the-death by florid insults. A dangerous imagination will always leave the possibility for escape or Stockholm synrome. Either that, or it all happened in his head. Heaven only knows…
44. Indeed I have. I’ve posted about this before, so to save the yawns of fellow peebles, here’s the gist of what happened to me:
http://tinyurl.com/5oujo2
33. You might think that, I couldn’t possibly comment. I will change addresses (I did suggest this to you on an earlier thread but you missed it) you keep the old one.
50 - if you are right about what’s going to happen to the odds, that will give a betting opportunity. The Tories are almost certainly going to win this seat, and if (as Mr Smithson has done) one looks at the details, this poll lends weight to that proposition.
Further thought Anybody betting on Labour is throwing their money away. I rate Tory chances at 90% or even higher.
testing (alexing)
Iain Dale, another fantastic scoop, your blog while always excellent has been on fire lately
re 51 Thanks Mike.
57 - it’s a pleasure and a relief to agree with you.
52- I think opinion on this site has been pretty temperate, with establishment media more inclined to prematurely declare a sweeping Conservative victory in C & N than most of the contributors to PB. And after all, if anyone has been getting their hands toasted here lately, as with last week’s elections, it has been the “left wingies”.
49- Mike- a 4% constituency poll lead does not mean this will be a comfortable victory. Labour’s candidate will be much more appealing to the locals I would expect than some toff, Tory, elitist white boy with a very large plum stuck in his throat.
57 Mike S. Are you as PB’s Superdelegate endorsing my ARSE ??
Alex
right click on where you usually have your tag at the end..leave a comment. It will bring up every tag you have used, when you see test (in blue) press delete and Test should diasppear
Re Tories and toff dressing - tailcoats etc - i have close associations with scotland and visit regularly and have lived there for a time. My observation is that although it is not exactly Toff or Tory territory it is the one part of the country where formal evening wear ( essentially Kilts etc ) is not looked on with class disdain and visitors are encouraged to dress up . David Cameron with his surname should get in touch with his Scottish roots and he could bring Scotland along with him at the next election
On the subject of the two big party squeeze, if the recent London election result happens in C&N, then the actual LD share will be nearer 10% than the 18.7% they got in C&N at GE 2005.
Overall these vote share predictions look very similar to what Yougov were predicting (I believe) 10 days away from the London elections.
47 - I think you’re probably right there, actually. Slight Labour preference amongst LDs, balanced by the unpopularity of the gvt.
However, I just wonder if the Lib Dems who *will* switch will tend to go to Labour to stop the Tories gaining, or at least will be greater in number than those who actively support the Tories, rather than just voting Lib Dem.
You can vote against Labour by voting Lib Dem - the greater motivation to switch is for Labour-leaning LDs, not Tory-leaning LDs, I suspect.
Mike, how can you say that a poll that including the MOE has the Tories and Labour neck and neck = “the Tories are heading for a comfortable victory”.
I get that you are saying ICM overestimate Labour nationally but do you have any proof this extends to By-elections of 46,000 odd voters?
There’s been talk that Chris Rennard and Nick Clegg don’t exactly see eye to eye, hasn’t there?
If the Lib Dems end up taking a poor third place at C&N, they’ll be able to point to their poor starting postition in the constituency, and legitimately talk about a two party squeeze.
But will it instead lead to a round of in-fighting?
61, “white boy”
Yeah, bloody whites. Not having enough melanin and dancing badly. Why do you think bigotry is acceptable against white people? You aren’t Harriet Harman are you?
A good education and wealthy parents should be neither a prerequisite nor a bar to holding public office. Judging a man based on his heritage when choosing who to vote for is pathetic. What matters is his ability.
By your 1970s class warfare approach you’d turn down Alexander the Great.
Obama has picked up two Clinton switcher SD’s from the Virgin Islands and one other. Clinton has picked up one SD today.
Today Net - Obama +3 Clinton -1
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/
52 “I think the problem with this site is that is so Tory loaded…”
Tyson, the lack of Labour supporters on this site might just reflect their scarcity in the real world?
re 61. No way. I’ve been backing the Tories at 0.4/1 and I don’t lose bets like this.
The massive problem for Labour is that they cannot get their vote out when the government of the country is not at stake. The Tory margin will be bigger than 4%.
As to Jack’s ARSE - that’s a private matter between me and him.
61 - I thought Labour Ministers were rapidly deserting this line of attack as next to useless?
With the LibDems out of the way, the task for the Tories becomes much easier. Establishing yourself as the main contender vs the Govt is more than half the challenge of by-elections.
HF I see you are posting the same sort of drivel you were posting at the time of the Southall byelection .
This talk of a Tory toff is a joke. Have any of you actually watched his campaign video? (in the video box on my blog) If he’s a toff then I’m a straight boy.
72 Mike S. A love that dare not speak its name !!
mike I have switched. Email addresses on my other computer - could you releae my comment from moderation and I will use the new address in future - many thanks
Nobody mention that Prescott wanted Blair to sack Brown yet?
72) Mike - you may be right there but you did back Nick Clegg at VERY short odds when a number of people believe he actually narrowly lost to Huhne if the Christmas post had come through!
I think if the by-election was next week it would be all over. The extra few days gives Labour a glimmer, but with postal voting it may be too late anyway.
re 67. There are no comparable by election polls by ICM. But NOP adopt a fairly similar methodology and their last two by election polls have massively over-stated Labour.
The margin of error concept in polls would carry more weight if it worked, when tested, both ways. It doesn’t. If there is an error then for the last quarter of a century it has worked in Labour’s favour.
This is because Labour finds it hard getting its vote out.
69- white, privileged, toff, tory, male, public school, posh, plum speaking, elitist, fox killing, is just so boring and predictable for your party.
Labour learned to mix and match ages ago- you would hardly expect scally, scouser, trade unionists, beer drinking, middle aged, fag smoking to contend every blinking seat that pops up.
But in Crewe and Nantwich up pops- yes a Tory- and white, male, posh, elitist, rich, privileged Toryboy whiteboy.
It is the Tories that are the party of class and privilege I am afraid. Labour is just more meritocratic.
re 77. Done.
69. Shhhhhh! They Don’t Get It! Don’t Wake Them Up!
These racist, snooty, self-obsessed, anti-white, multiculti, lame-brained, Islamophilic middleaged decrepit anglophobic halfwits (like Tyson) think it is still 1995, and anyone who hates the English is therefore A Good Thing.
They haven’t got with the programme. Let’s not disturb them in their delusions, cause right now they are headed for electoral oblivion.
Which is, indeed, A Good Thing.
no time to read thread carefully … surprisingly the close headline figures but looks like detail suggest more like what would be expected. Amazing that Lab might be closer in by-election than GE - that doesn’t make sense unless there is some Dunwoody loyalty which wouldn’t apply in GE. Does actually make the sample look more credible though. Tory gain but margin v. uncertain. LDs toast … for once they didn’t want a poll at this stage.
74 - Mark Senior, are you expecting a comfortable Labour hold or a Lib Dem triumph?
I recall that a poll on the Dudley West by-election back in the mid 1990’s was reasonable accurate. The poll tonight had a sample size of 1,000 which is much larger than most constituency surveys.
In the mayoral elections, only slightly over half of non Labour and Conservative voters gave a second preference and these split broadly 48 / 52, slightly in favour of Livingstone. If the Liberal vote does decline, then I doubt it will go predominantly one way.
Agree with Mike this poll is quite remarkable. For it to show a Conservative lead of 16% on a General Election question in a constituency where Labour had a same size lead in 2005 equates to the Conservatives being ~ 30% ahead nationally, if Crewe and Nantwich is anyway typical of the Country.
85. Was aimed at 70. Clearly!
83, perhaps you can explain to me what’s wrong with being white?
This poll seems a little anti-intuitive, does it not? Why would the Conservatives win this seat by more in a General Election than they would in a by-election? The opposite is nearly always the case.
68 - stop making things up.
83 - “up pops- yes a Tory- and white, male, posh, elitist, rich, privileged Toryboy whiteboy”
What utter rot! By what measure is the Conservative candidate ‘posh’ or what evidence is there to suggest he is ‘elitist’ or ‘privileged’… yet more outdated class-war predjudice from a Labour Party out of ideas and before to long out of power… pathetic!
91 - I think the clue probably lies in the questions asked. There were obviously names used.
82) Thanks for the perspective Mike. Even if you are 100% right though I still see the prices tightening - Neck and Neck is the way the media will write it up in the main tomorrow (this poll will be intially published in the MOS and then the rest of the MSM) and punters will be keen to back Labour.
90 Morris Dancer. It’s Soooooooooooooo last year darling !! Black is the new white !!
83 - “Labour learned to mix and match ages ago” - Tyson you are so correct. What school did Thatcher go to compared to Michael Foot?
On any questions Friday and repeated today there was a truly significant moment when Frank field essentially said that if he did not get his way re the 10 p compensation he would bring the government down - i heard it earlier today on radio 4 and posted as soon as in heard it - it seemed to me to be a major moment in British politics and Dimbleby grasped it too . I did not realise i was listening to a repeat - in retrospect i can not understand why this did not get headline press today -am i missing something - it seems to me he is not getting what he wants and the government is getting closer to a confidence vote that it may well lose
Con home has picked up on this
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2008/05/frank-field-thr.html
76 - I have to say, watching that video, he does come across as an excellent candidate. That he has been campaigning since last July has probably helped - I wonder if this is where the Lib Dems essentially lost this one, by replacing their candidate at the last minute.
98, media saturation of the 10p tax issue?
It certainly was a very interesting Any Questions. I knew Frank Field was on but wasn’t quite expecting that.
90- Morris-nothing really- it would have been nice for Crewe Tories to select a black woman, or Asian woman.
A white privileged toryboy is just so boring, and predictable. Yawn..
re 95. Yes - you are probably right and I will be ready to pounce on the bargains.
98 - Not a hope in hell of a government with a majority the size it has losing a confidence vote. Turkeys and Christmas etc
4%?
THIS IS NOT GOOD ENOUGH.
Somebody fetch the Yougovmophone. I want a 37% lead by tiffin.
O/T A sports bet tomorrow in the Rome Masters tennis final. Djokovic is murdering players on court this week and there is a chance that he’ll catch the less experienced Wawrinka cold in the first set. He’s already beaten Stepanek 6-0 in their first set in the semis and 6-1 in the first set against top claycourter Almagro. NB both players retired in the second set. Djokovic is a great front runner and Wawrinka has a tendency to hit quite a large number of double faults when nervous. On hard court these scores are rarer, but on clay courts the serve is easier to break and when a player is dominant they can run away with bigger score margins.
Bet Direct offer the best odds in the first set correct score markets and I recommend backing Djokovic 6-0 (50/1) 6-1 (20/) and on 6-2 (10/1). I think they’re good value on this week’s form, though not a rock solid certainty.
“69- white, privileged, toff, tory, male, public school, posh, plum speaking, elitist, fox killing, is just so boring and predictable for your party.”
And, long may it remain thus.
This poll is excellent news. I expect the Labour vote is, in reality, way below 39% and the Lib Dem vote way above 16%.
101, then why criticise them for putting forth a white man?
Why should women be patronised and men discriminated against in the name of demographic representation rather than promoting universal meritocracy?
You’re presenting a very Harmanesque ‘argument’ here.
103 - I don’t think he said that. He said that being defeated on the budget would in effect be a vote of no confidence, and Brown would have to go.
@103
What is it with all these well meaning wronguns talking up a Brown departure?
WE WANT HIM TO STAY PM TILL 2010! You’re not helping.
Interesting actually that of course it was mid the 1992-7 Parliament that a Conservative budget was defeated…
Labour are clearly in meltdown. They could be heading for a summer of discontent and could drop below 20% in National polls. Brown needs a huge announcement (pulling out of Iraq or dropping ID cards etc) to quell the storm.
Interesting article saying leftie Scots based in London are heading home because “It means living under a double yoke of old Etonians”.
http://www.sundayherald.com/oped/opinion/display.var.2262612.0.welcome_london_refugees.php
It’s a beautiful warm evening with a slight breeze. You may call it a wind. The wind of change……(do not click if you are a not Patriotic)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xfvfxURsFg
96- JackW- to think of it actually a geriatric, obsessively arse revealing old boy would have been a much more tantalising prospect for Crewe and Nantwich
thanks Mike.
66- The issue you raise seems to be a much tougher one, but essentially boils down to motivation; will pro-Labour (or anti-Con) LD’s be more motivated to vote Labour than pro-Con (or anti-Labour) LD’s will be to vote Con? I doubt this phenomenon will produce significant net gains for Labour out of the LD vote, but you never can say for sure.
107 No, no. All true Tories *want* the privileged white male to triumph.
@111
I suspect the only announcement Tractors could make that would impress anyone would be to announce a white paper on his intention to SPONTANEOUSLY COMBUST.
Burn, you squinty waste of space. BURN!
sorry, I meant to reference 67…
Tyson - The variety of Tory candidates is pretty depressing. Is that because they lack meritocracy? I’m not so sure. They’ve been trying quite hard to find Ethnic minority and women candidates, but it’s not easy. It’s more a reflection of the membership. If you lack grassroots supporters from racial minorities and successful career women, it’s going to be pretty hard to find the candidates. So they need to start building from the bottom up. Cmaeron has tried to do it the other way round - with the inevitable Tony Litt style embarassments
101. Your time is over. People have had enough of your divisive, stupid, futile, inept, pensionable, hate-filled and gangrenous weltanschauung. You had 12 years in power - in which time you killed a million Iraqis, betrayed the British people, and nearly destoyed the UK.
Haven’t you done enough damage? Please, have some respect. Everyone hates you. Move to Oslo, like you keep promising.
Goodbye.
87 No I am expecting a Conservative win .
49 33 16 in a safe labour seat is equivalent to armageddon in a GE methinks.
@115:
I like it when you talk dirty, Sean.
@120:
Deep down, you know you want it too. Ooh, suit you.
102- Mike- if you think that there is a 90% certainty of the Tories doing this one in Crewe, then you would be thinking a majority of 10k plus is in the offing.
I do think the Tories will win but with a very slim lead- maybe 2.5k.
69. A hilarious descent into self-parody. Can that post be framed, please?
121 - Not necessarily, it could just indicate that the demographics of this seat have shifted to being more favourable to the Conservatives.
121 yes, and suggests that the reasonable Ave it GE view of Con maj 400 is the way ahead!
126. In 3 years????
111 dont worry Emily, noone will bother to click on anything you post
118 What we do is conspire with the Freemasons, the Skull and Bones Club, and the Bilderberg Group, to keep the lower classes, Women, and Ethnic Minorities from getting their hands on the levers of power. And I reckon we’re very successful.
Meanwhile …. News from Crewe and Nantwich that David Cameron and the Tories are using the dark side to make a by election gain appear to have some credence :
http://www.devilskitchen.net/dk_blog/cam_emp2.jpg
I think a critical point will be that the seat was moving right in any case, and Gwynneth had a huge personal following. There will be some sympathy for her daughter, but if GB goes anywhere near the place, that will be game over.
124 Con maj probably 10,000
re 124. My 90% certainty prediction is based on past performance. Can you think of any election in modern times where the tories were ahead in the polls which they lost?
I said this last February when YouGov reported the first Boris lead and I was I was right. Even if just one pollster is pointing to a tory win then they win.
As I say repeatedly it all comes down to Labour’s inability to get its vote out.
sean fear- you are doing an excellent job tonight. Shame we haven’t got stonch around.
You do realise that I really (really) do believe you though
132, Brown won’t go anywhere near it unless it’s a Labour victory.
Everyone hates Gordon Brown!
132 well he’s in Cornwall today, which is further away than Edinburgh…..
91- The difference seems to be that people are seeing the Labour candidate as something other than a generic Labour candidate, and that is benefiting her. Her best bet for victory is to cultivate the sympathy and warm feelings coming her way, but she seems to be too ham-fisted to play the role properly; her recent name-calling referring to her main opponent as “some rich Tory kid” is just the kind of gutter politics that can cause sympathy to evaporate fast.
@135;
Please don’t stop.
Mike is Sean Fear being sarcastic or is someone posting under his name?
101 I see the whole toff business as synonymous with Racism. It is an accident of birth that someone is born a toff as much as it is an accident of birth if they are born Black. Which does beg the question would a black toff be ok in Tyson’s eyes or would his unfortunate toffishness outshine his wonderful blackness.
“Toffs” undoubtedly have advantages but if they do a great job in government then I really couldn’t care less where they came from. The last Etonian Toff in government I can remember was Douglas Hurd and if I recall he was both an effective Minister and a decent bloke so if Cameron is half as good then fine by me.
134) Mike doesn’t the result of this poll - the huge difference between Labour nationally and Labour in C&N suggest Labour ARE getting their vote out for Dunwoody?
Mike, can’t we have some new rule which prevents Labour people, like Tyson, Roger, Mark Senior, and Nick Palmer (etc) from posting?
I accept this is a democratic blog, which by its nature must and should accept coments from eccentrics and monomaniacs like JackW, Stuart Dickson, and Emily Churchill. Fair enough.
But the recent contributions from the “Labour” contingent go too far. Not only do they wish to deprive the British people of their democratic rights, with the Lisbon Treaty - now they seek to discriminate against people solely on the basis of their race and/or background - cf Tyson’s remarks about “white people”.
Enough is enough. Democracy does not mean we have to tolerate these absurd, spiteful, and ugly bigots. Let us ban all members of the so-called “Labour” party, until they have ceased their prejudiced and ignorant polemics.
134 mike, werent the tories ahead in the southall by election polls and then flunked it?
@140:
I dunno, but it’s certainly making Tyson very excited.
I am an unprivileged white gay male, and still a Tory. Am I an outcast? I demand that Tyson be brought to my quarters to tut at me forthwith.
Oh dear
Past the nine pm lagershed, I see
@143:
I like your thinking, Sean. Anyone prepared to support Tractors is clearly irrevocably deranged, and should have their posting privileges withdrawn. And probably humanely euthanised.
Suspect the GE figures have not been adjusted for the “shy” Labour effect. If the Tamsin effect is so great, why does this produce a “shy” figure equivalent to 30% of those saying the will vote Labour?
134- Mike- a national election for sure. It is just that this is a by election, and I cannot bring myself to pile on at 2/5 on for what I intuitively perceive as a much more unpredictable outcome.
I am keeping my political betting on the other side of the atlantic for now.
People like Tyson are typical New Labour - people from privileged wealthy backgrounds who want to stop ordinary working class people from getting on!
Thats why Labour are ***** and we must all vote Conservative!!!!!
what were the percentages at the last election for C&N?
I know that this site has an ongoing love affair with Frank Field but I do not find him in the least charming. I agree with him on the 10 pence matter, but that doth not make him the Lord God Almighty.
I have a preference for Tony Benn’s sign-posts rather than weather-vanes, but Field seems just a tad pompous. Of course I am probably wrong, I usually am. He probably had Tiny Tim’s bad leg fixed and fed thousands on five Mars Bars and three tubes of Pringles.
I’d rather have Ulster Kate any time; but my faves still include Bob Marshall-Andrews, the late Robin Cook and Gwynneth Dunwoody; they knew how to do it seriously with just a smidgeon of humility, to go along with their personal certitude.
Malcolm
146 LOL
@147:
I am shocked and appalled at your implication. You think me a LAGER DRINKER?
141 - I would not underestimate Sean Fear’s capacity for humour so dry it could kill cacti.
“Neck and neck” (with LibDems way back in third) is no bad message for the Tories, when their overriding need is to get the Brown-kickers to do their worst.
146- test- unfortunately not for me- I have to collect Mrs Tyson from the station later which is making me very irritable, and in a kind of wind up mode.
146 - tutting? is that what it’s called now?
Mike - can we have 4 daves at the top of the article? please its been ages since we saw multiple daves.
156. I’m still not sure. Methinks someone is impersonating him.
Assuming a reliable poll, the stats say at the moment there is a 91.9% chance the Tories are ahead by at least 1 vote….
If you believe that, betting theory says an aggressive bettor should bet 74% of everything he owns on the Tories…
More conservative strategies would employ bet sizes between 10% and 37%…
But it still looks an excellent bet…
157 - Indeed
@161:
This is one of those rare situations where it doesn’t seem to matter. Question: which is annoying Tyson more? That thought that that might actually be our very own superviallain DOCTOR FEAR, or merely an impersonator subvertng Grampa’s soi disant foolproof moderation mechanisms? YOU DECIDE, punters.
144 seanT. And they say satire dressed as self parody is as dead as satirical self parody.
indeed, smiling Daves are deserved, because the anti Labour vote is going to him and the LDs are nowhere
If the Conservatives do win C&N it will be a true sensation. The poll is closer than I expected. Very strange that the same sample gave a big Con margin on the ‘general election’ question - it should be the other way round? I agree that something like 4/5 is about the right price - not the 4/11 we’re seeing now! (Although I admit I have laid Labour on Betfair at around 3).
Chris Mullin retiring from Sunderland central at next GE. The writing is on the wall for Labour - this could easily be the first result on the night and the first Con gain!!
162) Rod Crosby - should one be so aggressive as this is “not a sure thing” as you said on the last thread?
—————–
94. The poll (assumng its sampling frame is correct) has a MOE of 3%, so Labour could be narrowly ahead.
The central forecast would indicate a Tory majority of about 1,500 votes, and there’s another 10 days to go….
Not a sure thing, in other words…
by RodCrosby May 10th, 2008 at 9:00 pm
161. Oh really, you can’t be serious.
165. Witty.
144- seanT- very funny (really).
Martin Coxall- you see a Tory with a bit of mix and match. But are you going to join the Parliamentary party? Thought not.
O/T- Madonna is pretty amazing- playing at Maidstone. The Tories have just taken control of the town council after 30 years or so and heh presto Madonna performs there a week later. That is the power of the Tories!
62 Tyson: “some toff, Tory, elitist white boy”
What colour are you Tyson?
O/T but Gordon has given an interview in the Sunday Telegraph on “Saving the Union”. I am a unionist so please G*d can he talk on something else - on Britishness he is a clumsy oaf trying to point score against both Tories & SNP. He accuses the SNP of a “transparent attempt to manipulate the political system for purely partisan political purposes” - pot, kettle IMHO.
The current constitutional mess is primarily his responsibility, the great Gordon, master of Scots Labour made it one of the priorities of New Labour in 1997. His behaviour this week shows just hoe poor his strategic grasp on the issues is.
For the sake of the Union please shut up Gordon.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/1944747/Gordon-Brown-won%27t-let-England-and-Scotland-split.html
(in poor taste)
If Andrea is watching, the bright side is that if Labour do pull off an unlikely win in C&N, we get an MP that can hardly be described as a “Brown babe” and reminds me a bit of one of Andrea’s favourite Labour “chicks”.
http://www.labouroutlook.com/creweandnantwich/
(second video clip)
Tyson what a bigot you are.
The Tory canditate has done a lot for vulnerable children and does not have the background you suggest.
While I do not criticize them for it many prominant Labour politicians came from a privilaged background including several in the present cabinet and the last PM. Even GB obtained a privileged education within the State System.
It’s about time you matured and realised it what people do for the community rather than their background that’s important.
@170: Do you believe, that deep down, “All true Tories *want* the privileged white male to triumph”?
174. Brown wants to save the Union?
Why doesn’t he resign then?
@172:
Me? I’m a backroom boy. A mere functionary.
Whatever the narrow figure may show, 49 33 16 does not imply to mev that shy Labour voters are suddenly going to turn out en masse. Highly unlikely. Even if Gordo revered the 10p change and reintroduced the 10p band, voters know what Gordo is all about.. self self and self.
I think people can leave off Tyson now. He’s admitted he’s on the wind-up!
169. Maybe I just wanted to get mine on first (which I just have.)
But seriously, there is no such thing as a sure thing (witness Clinton in Indiana), but looking at the poll and the odds (which are narrowing as I write) it is a very favourable bet….
161- Frank- that is sean fear at his driest. We have form.
165- JackW- I am very impressed, though I do not really understand it.
@181: