Is Oregon a certain win for Obama?
May 10th, 2008 
Picture of Obama rally in Portland by Photoscott
- Does Clinton stand a chance of winning Oregon?
Following her triumph in Pennsylvania on the 22nd April and an effective tie in Guam on May 3rd, but having suffered difficult headlines since last Tuesday in Indiana and North Carolina, Hillary Clinton will need to build momentum quickly to prevent a hemorrhaging of Superdelegates to Barack Obama.
She has the potential to rally her flagging campaign with solid wins in West Virginia (13th May), Kentucky (20th May), and Puerto Rico (1st June). South Dakota and Montana (both 3rd June) herald the end of the primary campaign on June 3rd, and whilst both are winnable for either candidate, her focus must be on building momentum during the month of May if she is to stand a chance of the nomination.
The state most likely to deny her between now and the end of the contest is the west-coast state of Oregon. Considered a Democrat-leaning swing-state in General Elections, Oregon is split East-West with the rural Republican-held 2nd District covering two-thirds of the area, but the four Congressional districts on West Coast and surrounding the city of Portland trending strongly-Democratic.
One of the most liberal and least Christian states in the USA, Oregon has been at the forefront of controversial legislation, including medicinal marijuana, same-sex unions, and voluntary euthanasia. Although chiefly known as a ‘young’ city (which would seemingly favour Obama), Portland also has a large gay population, one of the demographics said to be most loyal to Clinton. The largest non-white demographic are Hispanics, and its African-American population is below 2.5% - significantly less than Asian-Americans or even Native-Americans & Pacific Islanders. In short, there is little to suggest that demographics hand Obama an obvious victory - indeed, had he not proven himself strong by winning Washington state and northern California, Oregon would have been a state that many would have assumed would trend towards Clinton.
There has been a dearth of information coming from the state for much of the contest. In one of only two recent Democratic statewide polls, SurveyUSA had Obama on 52%, Clinton on 42%, with 3% declaring themselves Undecided 3% (as of April 8th, 2008). Previous polls of all voters have shown that Oregon would favour Obama over McCain, but McCain over Clinton in the presidential head-to-heads. However, these are a poor guide for the Democratic primary, given that a different constituency of voters has been polled - the margins in head-to-heads being provided by Independents and others not able to vote in the closed (Democrat only) primary election. Previous polls all showed Clinton leading, though since the Iowa caucus, only one such poll has been published (Clinton 36%, Obama 28%, Edwards 14% in late January 2008).
Governor Ted Kulongoski has endorsed Hillary Clinton, along with retiring Congresswoman Darlene Hooley (Dem, OR-5 - as an open seat, the only Democratic district in Oregon at risk in November). Earl Blumenhauer (Dem, OR-3) has endorsed Barack Obama, but the remaining 3 Oregon Congressmen and Oregon Democratic Senator Ron Wydon have chosen not to endorse either candidate at the time of writing. Joining the fence-sitters, former Governors Barbara Roberts and John Kitzhaber, and the non-partisan Mayor of Portland, Tom Potter. Obama has, however, received the backing of both the full Democratic delegations to the Oregon State Senate and State House of Representatives.
Politically, the only other race of any interest in the state is choosing a Democrat to face (and possibly beat) incumbent Republican Gordon Smith as US Senator in November. With Kitzhaber and the entire Democratic US House delegation ruling themselves out, Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives Jeff Merkley (an Obama supporter) is facing disabled Environmental campaigner Steve Novick for the Democratic nomination, and a former chairman of the National Endowment for the Arts, John Frohnmayer, is likely to run in November as an Independent. Merkley’s campaign is doing well in fundraising, and the presence of committed activists working the streets for an Obama supporter could make all the difference in a tight race.
What seems apparent is that Oregon could trend either way - both Clinton and Obama enjoy institutional support, and both can see demographics that typically support them. Little polling of Democrats has taken place, and neither lead enjoyed by either candidate in January and April respectively could reasonably be described as insurmountable. I believe that this state is still very much in play, and Obama would be foolish to assume that he could rely on its support.
If we accept that Obama has won the season on both Pledged delegates and the Popular Vote, the only reason that Superdelegates would be waiting before supporting him (assuming they are not all closet Clintonistas) is that they do not want to disenfranchise the few remaining states who have yet to vote.
Clinton’s major challenge will be to stop them from going wholesale to Obama on 4th June, preventing her from being viable until the Convention in late August, or even until the Credentials Committee meets on Florida and Michigan at the end of June. The question is whether (excepting North Carolina) Clinton can put in the necessary effort in Oregon to chance a near-clean sweep from her victories in Rhode Island and Ohio on March 4th through to the South Dakota and Montana challenges on 3rd June.
If so, the momentum could be sufficient to persuade Superdelegates to further delay open judgment, and thus keep her alive beyond the 4th June, thereby giving her the opportunity to ‘steal’ the ticket at the Convention in Denver. Should she lose Oregon, which seems quite possible, even she may be forced to accept that it is all over.
UPDATE: In the most recent poll on May 1st reported that Obama enjoyed a 51% - 39% lead over Hillary Clinton.
MessageSpace Advertising
At this stage I think Obama would have to mess up big style to lose it. If it was still a truly active race then maybe there’d be a fight but now?
They’d either have to take their eye off the ball or something fairly drastic we just can’t see would have to come along to alter things
Christ, everyone was must be still arguing about someones private life….
Cannot see her winning Oregon at all based on the present polls.
If its the Gordon Brown is part of a funk dancing collective in 80s that did shows in Kirkcaldy clubs story, there, its out now.
4 O/t I know but do you think the Sun or Sunday Times has possibly been saving some Cherie material and today was just a taster, not the meat?
OREGON
is like Canada! — soooo left-wing!
6 So YES, Obama is sure to win this one.
As much as Clinton will win both Kentucky and WV.
Or is it the ‘Blair rushed to hospital due to choking on an egg whilst taking part in the Westminster Branch Cool Hand Luke Fan Club annual boiled eggathon’, story?
Can nayone confirm that one?
3 - I agree it’s looking less and less likely, but there simply haven’t been many polls, and the instituional endorsement of executives (Governors and Mayors) seems to have been critical to success, and Obama has neither here.
It may well go to him, but the idea that it is locked up is a little hasty, IMHO.
1
Yes, Yokel, I did take the handicap of 20,5.
But no much ; I already have 3000CAD$ at 16% on a victory! - it was amazing the day after her very narrow win to get those odds for WV.
Is there an ICM poll in tomorrows Sunday Telegraph?
rogerh
7 - But Phillipe, she is just as left-wing as Obama, arguably more so on many issues. I don’t deny he is the favourite, but you can’t put this in the same league as Kentucky and West Viginia, surely?
10. I assume you backed the Clinton -20.5% then or the Obama at +20.5%?
Admittedly for Clinton do anything other than win well would be susprise but I’m very sensitive to the possibility that we are in a different phase now.
What do they all do?
Me again
14 - I understand that Labour has been profligate in hiring advisors and services, but is it not reasonable for the PM to have 24 special advisors on various things? I can’t imagine any other G8 leaders having many fewer.
It’s like when people say that $1bn is an obscene amount to spend on the American election - its equivalent to 1 cent per day per citizen in the year of the election. A lot, but not obscene.
CONTINUATION FROM PREVIOUS THREAD… (this comment is actually more on point here than it was in the previous thread, pertaining as it does to a possibly impending Obama presidency)
“398- If you want a taste of the Blue Dogs of yesteryear, I will just direct you to no less of an example than Robert Byrd (D-West Virginia), who also happens to be the President Pro Tem of the Senate (3rd in line of succession to the Presidency after Nancy Pelosi). This former Senate Majority Leader not only is a former Exalted Cyclops of the Ku Klux Klan, but also personally filibustered the 1964 Civil Rights Act for 14 hours on the Senate floor. You just don’t find very many Blue Dogs like that anymore. Obama will have a much easier time pursuing his agenda.”
As the Democratic Party has virtually no such members left at the Congressional level, Obama would have the most liberal Democratic majority to work with of any president in U.S. history.
14. post on here.
16 - There was a time when Prime Ministerial advice came from his cabinet.
12. Morus, I have followed an Obama cruiser not a slugger theory throughout the primaries and its done very well allowing me to avoid taking Obama oin some states but have a very good set of success in tighter states by backing against him.
The premise is that when Obama is showing consistently good leads, say coming up to 8-10% or so he stays ahead and often stretches those poll leads on the day.
Where on the other hand there is a tight state or a state where he is challenging from close behind he often doesnt eke out the vital few percent and Clinton has come home plenty often enough to make me money.
Some of the leads Obama is being polled at at the mo could get him into that cruiser territory.
Despite thinking that the recent two primaries might show some wobble in that idea it was spot on again. Despite what many say, Indiana was a battleground state with polls showing all kinds of margins both ways. I made a little on Indiana on the night as there was run on Obama’s odds as they tightened up by backing Clinton.
Obviously, this doesnt a ccount for rthe unexpected but its proved a decent guide.
O/T reply to Nick Palmer on the last thread
“274: I don’t think test is right about the number of Labour people in the seat, actually - obviously one can never have enough activists, but one reason I feel OK about concentrating on my own patch for a while is that I’m told (admittedly also third-hand) that we’ve got a lot of people there. But it’s only an hour from here so I’ll check again and if they’re short I’ll pop over a few times. (”Test mobilises Labour activist!”)”
curses!
But, and I hate to tell you this Nick, I happen to know that Broxtowe Conservatives are sending a minibus-load of activists over to help. I don’t mean to rub it in or anything but despite the fact that this is a safe seat, the Tories are really enthused and everybody wants to get in and help. ConHome are organising a coach. Has Labourhome even put in any helpers?
We know that on paper it looks tough (7k majority and Gwyneth’s daughter) but we are ready to fight very hard for it. Of course I don’t deny that I am a totally partisan Tory, but I have never seen enthusiasm and desire to work for a GE victory like this in the party ever. And I certainly don’t just mean for Crewe and Nantwich, I mean in general, for whenever Brown gets the guts to go to the country.
14. Capital effort this time alex!
Rasmussen published its latest Oregon poll today :
McCain 40% .. Clinton 46%
McCain 38% .. Obama 52%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/oregon/election_2008_oregon_presidential_election
Strangely no primary poll and although not directly relevant Obama has consistently polled better in the state than Hillary in the McCain matchups.
OT People should keep an eye on teh current Lebanon business by the way.
I posted a few weeks ago that something wasnt right in the region and we could be looking at a proxy conflict in Lebanon that has, potentially strengthened the hand of Syria & Iran through Hizbollah.
Summer conflict anyone?
20 Yokel. Looks more a case of Obama bandwagoning than cruiser to me ?!?!
LibDems - dancing here!
http://www.iainlindley.co.uk/2008/05/10/strictly-come-doorknocking/
OT
and reposted from last thread For Nick Palmer
Nick,(re Gordo disappearing to Cornwall) In West Sussex, they speak of little else !!!!!!(and of course read Guido every day) but a good riposte nevertheless!!
… and I should have added, I honestly admire all the hard work you are putting in to your constituency….(and I mean it) but I’ll bet there are a fair few Labour MP’s working their nuts off, about 200 I’d guess……..
The Blue Dogs of today are clearly pale imitations of those of yesteryear, that doesn’t mean there won’t be tensions with the liberal wing of the party.
Just a quick correction to the article. Darlene Hooley is retiring this year, so her seat is vulnerable but she isn’t. Also the latest SUSA poll has Obama leading 50-44, taken 28-30/4.
Otherwise an excellent summary. At the moment would say Obama is the clear favourite especially given the resource differential between the campaigns.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=cd35ffc2-5d9f-4e83-9023-44d488d92aa3
21. That obviously can’t be true because as Nick has told us many times there is no Conservative activity in Broxtowe.
25. Behave…..tut tut
13
Yes, I backed Clinton -20,5
I agree that since tuesday night, it feels like we are in a different phase that before — it’s why I’ll be careful, here, and stick with my 445$ profit on her simple victory.
12
No, not in the same category, but it’s still a sure win; he has the momentum, the money, the MSM…
21
Test….
You are obviously too young to remember 1979. I was a young person drawn into getting off my butt, going to see my local CA and asking if I could help. Once i started canvassing. the sense that change was going to happen was all pervasive, and polls were nothing like as as accurate as they are now. But I knew Maggie would win, several months before the Election. There was something in the air. I sense that feeling again.
12
And in the perception, she is running to his right, now, isn’t she?
http://www.tribunemagazine.co.uk/2008/05/09/labour-party’s-finances-nearing-meltdown-stage/
Whats the story here by the way? I’m assuming coming from a Labour supporting source its fairly accurate and not spurious?
33. Have no doubt that the GOP will be marking Obama out as as left as possible.
Its one of their main lines of attack.
For the record, after telling everyone to get onto Obama big before Indiana and North Carolina (and was laughed down by Philippe), am now loading up on Clinton.
HRC will win WV, perhaps by as much as 50%.
HRC will win KY, probably by more than 30%.
BO will only win Oregon by 10%, give or take.
This means that, theoretically, and assuming enormous turnout in Puerto Rico, that (including Florida), there is a chance she wins the popular vote. (I happen to think P.R. will be a lot closer than people think, and then, of course BO will win the last two primaries…)
In two weeks, HRC may well be Lazarus (temporarily, of course). Therefore, at 10-1 or so, she represents *excellent* value. Assuming you lay her off again in time.
24
You bet; I’ve been pasting a few articles about it the last few days.
The Summer’s gonna be bloody, baby — very violent.
Iran is cockier than ever — and Syria on steroids.
And Putin is back in business!
Hizbullah, and them backers, are going to fight the Lebanese government, and hassle Israel.
Now, will this help McCain?
20 - I think Oregon is as much of a toss up as Indiana was - looking just at the SurveyUSA polls, Obama led by 10 in a poll taken 4th-6th April, but this lead had dropped to 6 by the end of the month. I jst wonder whether a combination of compacency, and a slight Clinton bounce after West Virginia might allow her to sneak this.
Obama’s leads that he has kept have usually been in places that the demographics and endorsements favoured him. This time, I don’t think they do, so she still has a chance.
23 Rasmussen has decided it’s all over, and will no longer poll the primary, Jack. I appreciate you posting the head-to-heads, but I honestly don;t think they mean much until the nominees are confirmed. Too many Dems are still claiming they will only vote for their choice in November - that is not true, but it makes the head-to-heads less than useful IMHO.
36
I did not laugh!
I only asked you if you were serious…
I advised strongly to wait after WV before selling Clinton and buying Obama.
Obviously, I was wrong.
36l But will her overall odds move much now Robert?
Unless punters really think she can win and god it will take something very dramatic indeed then they may not bother backing her anyway even though she’ll have a nice run on soem states coming up.
Just a thought.
OT Evening all. A few bits & pieces.
BBC reporting Scottish Labour Party backing Alexander:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7394140.stm
Is Gordon heading for a showdown with his countrymen?
Also yesterday Iain Dale speculated about Ken Livingstone’s future (as leadership candidate down the line).
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2008/05/is-this-man-next-leader-of-labour-party.html
Hampstead & Kilburn might be a seat he could be interested in. Notional Lab majority of 5 thousand, includes part of Brent and current incumbent, Glenda Jackson is 72 so could retire at the next GE (anyone know what the current situation is?). What do people think of the Dale speculation?
Lastly the Sunday Times Yougov Poll would normally be due but given the Sun poll is it possible that it has been postponed?
34. FT article here.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/53f23c76-1c66-11dd-8bfc-000077b07658.html
38
The money factor can counter-balance her mini-momentum after WV; Obama can buy a lot of TV and he is actually putting into place a very efficient grass-roots organization.
But you make sense, as usual.
IF he loses Oregon, I think the race will not be over yet….
38, I’ll bear that in mind Morus as I do like to back the outsider to either lay, hedge or simply let them run on.
It is hard from where I’m sitting howeer to see just how she is going to close this one up, at least at this point though I’m happy to change my mind if I see money to be made.
43– ” I’m happy to change my mind if I see money to be made.”
This is precisely why this blog, here, is so good; most people are open-minded, for they wanna know where to put their money; they wanna know what is actually going on.
For the record, Darlene Hooley is not in danger this year. She’s retiring. Her seat, however, is the only Democratic open seat with much chance of a Republican gain, although the Republicans have had a lot of trouble finding a recruit.
28- Given the rush by the media to declare Obama the nominee in the aftermath of North Carolina/Indiana (see the cover of Time magazine), you can only look at the 4/28-30 poll as a high water mark for Hillary. Undoubtedly the state of morale of her supporters has been waning since then. Also considering the recent rush of superdelegates to Obama and the generally liberal political bent of the Oregon Democratic electorate (not so different from Wisconsin), Obama looks to be cruising to a neat victory there, probably in the range of 12 to 16 points.
Can someone tell me the dates of the Montana/South Dakota Primaries please?
47 3rd June
38 Morus. Are you instructing me in your capacity as acting site editor NOT to posts polls until the nominees are officially declared at the conventions ??
“Also yesterday Iain Dale speculated about Ken Livingstone’s future (as leadership candidate down the line).”
I’d love Labour to go for it, but they won’t.
41. If Alexander really wanted an early referendum, couldn’t Brown just push it through Westminster instead?
Not that he’d want to of course…
49) Jack- don’t you mean “instructing US” ?
48. jsfl. Thanks. Paddy Power are laying 5/4 that Hillary suspends her campaign after the Montana/South Dakota primaries but before the National Democratic Convention. I’ve had some.
Earlier today someone posted that hills were going 1/4 she threw in the towel in June, so this 5/4 bet looks value to me.
45 - Thanks Mike, I didn’t know she was retiring. I’ve amended the article accordingly.
38 - Of course not, you Jacobean scoundral!! Just I think head-to-heads with McCain are a poor substitute for in-state comparisons between Obama and Hillary, and I think Rasmussen are wrong to interfere in the contest by essentially saying a candidate with 49% is beaten with three weeks to go. Cheeky swine!
50
Ken Livingstone.. Con Majority about 400
53 - That s great value, as it allows for ’suspended campaign’ (ie if a scandal breaks, she will return…!). Thanks StJohn
Hillary will be the nominee. It will be decided at the convention. Like always. The media and Obama want to “rush the voters” to an early decision because he is about to IMPLODE.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=ionFwC1UUUw
Montana & SD
3rd June
53. Worth having alright.
55,I’d vote Labour with Ken Livingstone as leader!
54 Morus. Casual semi-offical commands from acting editors are not to be issued lightly !!
52 PC.
53 stjohn. Good spot and decent value.
59 I’m sure that at least 25% of the voters would do as well. The problem is Labour would be toxic to the other 70-75%.
51. He probably could but I dont think Brown wants to go anywhere near anything that reminds the English based electorate of his Scottish roots. It just rubs salt into the wounds of all those who are feeling a certain level of injustice about the West Lothian Question.
Furthermore, I get the feeling that risking Scotland getting independence has major practical consequences which would cause all sorts of problems (defence, border negotiation and border control, energy, finance etc.) In anycase, if Scotland voted for independence how long could the likes of Brown and Darling stay in their roles? It would potentially be the end of their Parliamentary careers.
I for one would not be happy with a Scottish PM and Chancellor negotiating, on behalf of England, the separation agreement with the Scottish Parliament.
I suspect that Alexander just went down this root without thinking about the consequences. She was bluffing but now she has opened this up it is likely to come back and bite someone. Hopefully Labour and particularly Alexander.
60) Jacks - what was your ARSE poll saying for C&N? Comfortable lead for the Tories?
The ‘Oregonian’ looks at both campaigns :
http://blog.oregonlive.com/breakingnews/2008/05/candidates.html
Re 62 ‘root’ should be ‘route’
62 I dislike this proposal because I believe that any cause will be discredited by association with this government. As a Unionist, I want such a referendum to be won. Perhaps Cameron could offer it, straight after he’s won the next election.
Alexander knew very well what she was doing and it makes perfect sense as a tactic on paper.
Whether it works in practice is another story.
Crazy notions about Clinton still getting the nomination. Remember, she’s got no money, no serious observers think she can win, barring a miracle she can’t win the popular vote, the super-delegate gap is nearly closed. It’s over…
63) Cos if you’re right there’s a devilish amount of money available to back the tories @ 1.44
63 PC. I made an ARSE betting call several days back for the Tories at several prices south of 4/5. Not too much value presently.
ARSE will issue its C&N poll on polling day.
70) Were there figures mentioned Jack?
Surprised theres not more comment on Frank Fields comments. Its very unusual for an MP to openly say that he is willing to bring down his PM/Government. Infact, I can’t remember such an occurance happening before - Certainly not for a long time, anyway.
Just goes to show how serious he is, Brown had better buck his ideas up or the party could be over early.
61 Point taken-fair play! (FWIW,the Andrew Marr GB interview is being repeated as we converse online,on BBC Parliament) IMHO,GB looks at least good enough to,,when the day comes,restrict your party to an overall majority of 40-by implication 345 Tory MPS,40-odd Lib Dems,high 20s othera-that would leave c.235 MPs for Labour-personally I do not think the Labour tally will fall quite that far
61. These days Livingstone is much more of a moderate with a good record of executive experience, do you think he’d really would be that toxic?
66. I don’t thinK Cameron is much more popular than Brown north of the border.
61. These days Livingstone is much more of a moderate with a good record of executive experience, do you think he’d really would be that toxic?
66. I don’t thinK Cameron is much more popular than Brown north of the border.
71 PC. Good lord no …. The chaps at PISSED were still …. well … pissed from the ARSE(BUTT) exit poll on NC and IN.
76) Ha - good enough
72. Where are the comments?
And secondly who has Field got backing him when it came to a vote?
66. Sean, I fully agree with you. The thing I don’t understand with DC is what he has said on the matter. If the Conservatives are a localist party then surely they should accept that a referendum is the right way forward and then win the vote for the Union?
67. The problem is that this is scheduled to be debated in 2010 in Edinburgh, likely just as the whole country is starting to gear up for the GE. At that time I suspect Labour will be forced to oppose a referendum. Now that Alexander has taken this stance the SNP will use it to the maximum (Labour fearties, flip-dloppers etc.) to undermine Scottish Labour’s GE position to what effect I don’t know but I can’t imagine Brown is very happy about it.
78. A pretty good account of he’s said can be found here;
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2008/05/frank-field-thr.html
He seems deadly serious. Brown should look out….
74 I am certain his appeal does not extend beyond London.
We’ll have to wait and see how the Conservatives do North of the Border. But when you’ve won, you usually have a honeymoon, where you can get some quick wins.
78. Kate Hoey
The answer to the question is emphatically Yes, and I am suprised it has been asked. This is the west coast and as reported recently people in Califoirmia have been saying that they voted early for Clinton, but would have voted Obama on the day. Also he has been campaigning heavily there for a week or two, and the advertisement blitz has yet to commence.
I would expect a 58-42 final result, delegate split 30 to 22 and the number of necessary pledged delegates exceeded by Obama, following which the super delegates will deluge in his favour.
You heard it here folks!!!!
62: “In anycase, if Scotland voted for independence how long could the likes of Brown and Darling stay in their roles? It would potentially be the end of their Parliamentary careers.”
Potentially??? Is this a joke? Perhaps the English should have invited the Chinese to dictate the tax rate in London, prior to the handover of Hong Kong.
FFS. The mere fact this sentence could be written shows the problems - selfmade - of Labour when it comes to devolution.
Only a Tory (and English) government could successfully negotiate Independence for Scotland. But let us hope it doesn’t come to that. Indeed it is arguable that only a Tory (and English) government can successfully save the Union, by honestly establishing a fair and respectable Settlement with the SNP in Edinburgh.
Labour are too dependant on their majority north of Berwick to successfully and dispassionately argue for the Union.
Labour are Gay. Labour is over. I see no reason for them to continue as a party beyond 2010. Please hand in your membership cards at the door.
I have details of a new ICM poll in tomorrow’s Mail on Sunday, which has been done in Crewe & Nantwich - 1,000 people by telephone
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2008/05/poll-tories-on-course-to-win-crewe.html
Con 43, Lab 39 Lib 16
But lots more info too.
Clinton should get a boost toay with probably four add on supers from Mass. and Ohio. One has already been identified. Will give her a 4.5 lead, (Obama picked up another in Utah).
80. That is serious.
Perhaps another question is whether the public believe that the government are going to sort this issue out in full.
That would be something I’d like to see gauged as certainly after the ‘we’ll sort it out’ decision, there was a fair amount of press showing holes in it, including from numbers wonks.
The government can find the cash, certainly figures I’ve seen suggest that a full settlement is in the couple of billion category but I would guess they then have to keep finding a sum and they are stuck with it. Its nto huge but teh cupboard is bare as it is and look like its only being kept goiong by the big oil price rises.
The other thing, I’m guessing, is that because some of the groups involved are not people who normally are subject to the tax credit regime etc it isnt going to be that straightforward to just give them their cash back, short of a physical tax rebate which defeats the whole point of the elimibation of the 10p tax.
It may have been already noted but the authorised results from Indiana were even closer than was indicated in the early hours of Wednesday morning :
Clinton… 637,814 - 50.4%
Obama….. 626,642 - 49.6%
Majority - 11,152 votes.
84. I only used the word ‘potentially’ because having suffered ten years of this Government’s tricks I would not be surprised if, even in such a circumstance, they tried to drag their feet and came up with some sort of fudge.
I would be just as outraged as the rest of England would no doubt be. Whatever they proposed, it wouldn’t matter they’d still have to go (hopefully they will be gone anyway).
As for the rest of your post I totally agree.
82. I have a soft spot for Kate as a typical Ulster blooded woman, which comes out in her absolutely rugged independence and the stridency with which she expresses it. Brings a tear to my sentimenal eye even if I don’t support half of what she does.
Field however would need another, what 30 odd Hoeys and Fields to go through the lobbies? Who do they look to, the solid left wingers? That would be a big, very big moment to bring the budget down and those who were part of the threat last time didnt fire the shot across the bows and got a reaction. If it came to lobby stuff that would be different.
I can see the government come up with something to sort this unless Gordon acts the goat over a few hundred million.
Of course if he didnt, then such a move could take on a life of its own with people in the shadows potentially seeing it it as alever to dump Gordon.
Poll numbers interesting but not unassailable for Labour.
85 - Thanks Iain, looks like the “Shy Labour” adjustment is on full blast!
85. 10% swing - exactly what I suggested was the minimum for the Tories to look like the largest party at the GE…
88) A crying shame Jack. I laid a big chunk of the 1.02 - very frustrating - was hoping for another New Hampshire - and we nearly got it!
C&N
Would anybody here advise me NOT to back the Tories in C&N — 1.46 is available on betfair now.
85 - I think that’s a pretty good poll for Labour and the Tories. Tories will be pleased to be in front, Labour to only be 4 points behind and both will see the opportunity in publicity given to the fact that the Lib Dems can’t win.
94) Philippe that’s my £69 - probably not such a sexy amount in CAD - so I would advise you to take it!
95 - by elections polls do not have a great pedigree.
94 - If the poll is accurate then at this stage it’s probably got to be considered too close to call. But Iain is suggesting that the poll has been adjusted massively (by 9% in Labour’s favour) to account for Labour “don’t knows”.
94 - The Tories haven’t won a by-election since 1982 (TWENTY SIX YEARS AGO) and that was in exceptional circumstances. The Tories have NEVER EVER won C&N. It is NOT ON THEIR TARGET LIST. Shall I go on…
New thread - Tories 4% ahead in C&N - ICM
95. Thats true the LD figure is horrific.
94 - Oh and the poll is neck and neck and by-election polls go against labour or the lib dems (i.e. they usually win against the poll).
99. I wouldn’t bother.
94. The poll (assumng its sampling frame is correct) has a MOE of 3%, so Labour could be narrowly ahead.
The central forecast would indicate a Tory majority of about 1,500 votes, and there’s another 10 days to go….
Not a sure thing, in other words…
94. I would suggest hold fire. As Dale points out in his post there’s clearly a Dunwoody factor (currently worth 3pts) and that is bigger than I would have thought. That should grow as Labour’s campaign rumbles on. The margin between the two parties is actually a fair bit smaller than I would have thought and with the Libs so far behind they clearly can’t win. That should decrease and how that breaks is anyone’s guess.
85 - Thanks very much for the heads up, Iain.
94 - Well I’ve bet £40 at evens on Labour to retain this seat, with various pb.commas, so I’d urge caution. I don’t think a 4% lead with almost two weeks to go and an MoE of 3% is safe enough to put your money down at odds of only 1.46. I said 5/6 was the right Tory price at post 333 on the last thread, and I think that has been borne out by this poll. They;ll win, but they are over-priced.
93 PC. It was a fascinating nights betting !!
I partly took my cue from Obama’s concession speech but also some time later Hillary eventually appearing. I doubted very much that her handlers would have Deweyed her. They must have been pretty sure she had very narrowly edged it.
As ARSE said at the time - Too Close To Call - Bloody too close for Hillary !!.
Re. The report in the FT. I would take everything in the FT with a pinch of salt as they described Peterborough last week as a “small market town [sic] North of London”! Such metrpolitan arrogance…
I am travelling to Crewe on Tuesday and will report back but I would think Labour’s nasty, desperate and personal class war attack on Edward Timpson is being particularly poorly received - as Jon Cruddas has indicated. Posh Tory campaigning flopped in London and it won’t fly in Cheshire either.
96
Funny Boy — someone called by bet at 1.47 — was it you?
36 Robert
Clinton is a dead parrot. Please do not advise people to back her as they will lose their money. I.E.M. has her at a 6.8% chance of winning the nomination. Obama’s figures are almost as McCain’s Republican figures and McCain has no opponent!!
Of the last 19 super delegates to announce endorsements 16 have gone to Obama [including a switch] and only 3 to Clinton. Obama will win the majority of pledged delegates, the majority of states and the popular vote.
If the diminishing number of supers were to go against democratic voters and nominate H Rodham Clinton then they would be p*ssing off voters of colour, huge numbers of youngsters [mainly students] and lots of independents and swing voters. Obama has over a million donors and over a million volunteers waiting for the general [see Huffington Post.] They would lose big-time in November - and they know that only too well.
Its over. Backing Clinton now is financial suicide; Clinton-fanciers would be better to save their money and send it directly to her to help her out of debt.
Its over, c’est finis, kaput, and as I said before its a Monty Python.
I’ve been saying this for weeks, [haven’t I Nick?]
Malcolm
54 Dear Morus
I’m a cheeky swine.
Sincerely
Malcolm
110 - Not me Philippe! I’m exposed enough against the punters on here.
112 - There is no possible response to that!
112. Having backed Clinton, I’ve belatedly come to the conclusion that she’s had it. Thus, I’ve been begun betting on Obama at 1.12 and it’s quite a long way back to even money for me.
111: I think robert was saying that Clinton would come in from 10/1 after her future certain victories, so there was money to be made on that - not that she would win overall…