What are your stories from Crewe and Nantwich?
May 10th, 2008
Are Labour’s chances as bad as the media is suggesting?
This weekend hundreds and maybe thousands of activists from the main parties will be heading to Crewe and Nantwich for a big couple of days of campaigning ahead of the critical by election a week on Thursday.
The weather’s good, the constituency’s road and rail links are excellent and, most of all, Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems have each got something to prove in this key test of public opinion during a very difficult time for the government.
Already several of those who have been flocking to the south Cheshire towns have been giving us their impressions on the PB comments threads. If you are amongst the campaigners please let us know so we can build up a picture of what is happening on the ground.
On the face of it this should be an easy one for Cameron’s Conservatives. Last week’s local election, the London outcome and the latest YouGov poll all point to support shedding away from the governing party throughout the country. If it’s happening nationally then surely the same must be being experienced in C&N?
The most important factor for a party defending is the extent to which it can get its support out and the signs nationally suggest that this might be very hard for Labour. Even in Sedgefield last July at the start of Gordon Brown’s media honeymoon the Labour candidate saw his party’s vote drop by 14%. Labour supporters have bad record of turning out in elections when the government of the country is not at stake.
Even when they are starting from third place, like here, the Lib Dems always have the potential to pull off a shock. Could they start appealing to Labour supporters that the only way of stopping a Tory victory is by switching to them?
So even if you have never posted here before please share with us your experiences. Let’s see if we can get a good picture of what is going on. Many thanks.
Mike Smithson
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Here is the Scotland sub-sample from the latest Populus/Times poll GB-wide voting intention poll. Fieldwork was largely (or more probably fully?) conducted before the Wendy Alexander/independence referendum crisis kicked off in the Scottish Labour Party last Sunday/Monday. The week since then has been truly astonishing - I cannot remember a week like it in all my years of following Scottish politics. Truly unprecedented.
Remember: Populus is a pollster which almost without exception provides poll findings more sympathetic to Labour than the other pollsters. Usual caveats regarding sub-samples apply.
Scottish Westminster voting intention
fieldwork: 2-4 May 2008
sample size: 133
(% change from UK GE 2005)
1. SNP 41% (+23%)
2. Lab 25% (-14%)
3. Con 18% (+2%)
4. LD 11% (-12%)
5. BNP 2% (+2%)
oth 3%
Electoral Calculus seats calculator:
1. SNP 43 seats (+37 seats)
2. Lab 8 seats (-32 seats)
3. LD 5 seats (-6 seats)
4. Con 3 seats (+2 seats)
5. Speaker (Michael Martin) 1 seat (n/c)
I will not list all the seat changes, but suffice to say that the following ministers, and Lib Dem frontbenchers, would lose their seats to the SNP: Alistair Darling, Des Browne, Dougie Alexander, David Cairns, Danny Alexander and Michael Moore.
So, if things were that bad for Scottish Labour before the Alexander/Brown split, just how bad are things going to get now? Bring it on
http://populuslimited.com/uploads/download_pdf-040508-The-Times-The-Times-Poll—May-2008.pdf
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/index.html?userpoll_scot.html
The latest YouGov/Sun Scottish sub-sample, which I reported on yesterday’s thread, were: SNP 32% (23 seats), Lab 26% (20 seats), Con 21% (7 seats), LD 13% (8 seats), Speaker 1 seat.
http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/sun%20results%20080508.pdf
Merely handbags on Betfair for the by-election.My impression is that the LAB price has held up incredibly well.I took 4.2 for pennies prior to the YouGov poll and just laid back more pennies at 4.1.
I would just luv it if the Scot Nats got 37 seats,SD,because effectively I have bought them at minus 7 !.So if they get no seats I win seven points.
2. URW
Not even I believe that the Scottish National Party is going to gain 37 seats at the next UK general election! Well, not yet anyway…
Mind you, if Wendy Alexander has her way and we have a snap Scottish independence referendum, then there might not be a “next UK general election”, simply because there might no longer be a UK.
I won’t pretend to even begin to understand what you mean when you say: “… effectively I have bought them at minus 7! So if they get no seats I win seven points.”, but I assume that you are referring to the SNP seats spread over at Spreadfair, where the current SNP spread is 8.3 - 10.9. But how can one buy the SNP at minus 7 seats? - doesn’t make sense.
If you want a wee chuckle at this early hour, have a keek at Hugo Rifkind’s piece in today’s Times: ‘My Week: Wendy Alexander’. Hugo is the son of Malcolm Rifkind MP, a man who many would argue was instrumental in getting the UK constitution into its current mess, as the Scottish Secretary under Margaret Thatcher.
Explanation: I should have said that I have effectively bought both Plaid Cymru and the Scot Nats at minus 4.This how it works…….I have SOLD the three major Parties at a combined 636.1, so if PC and SN score null points I still gain four points.
I do like a chuckle but not in the least interested in Politics.
Jack W
From the previous thread: who are these children so certain of their superiority? Perhaps they were caught stealing from blind neighbours and are looking to kick an old man as their next escapade.
Ignore them, Jack. I find your posts informative and if I happen to be here, sadly reading mostly Tory Party [Pretty Boy Dave faction] drivel, I am able to catch up with my interests [not the UK] through your succint and informative posts.
Grateful Thanks
Malcolm [expecting snow tonight in ND]
4. URW
636.1 + the 18 Northern Irish MPs = 654.1 and the next House of Commons is only 650 seats, so the “Others” (SNP + Plaid Cymru + Kidderminster Health Concern + Respect + ?) = minus 4.1! So if any “Others” whatsoever win any seats whatsoever, you are quids in. Very good!!
What an astute chap you are! I expect that you are incredibly wealthy as a result of such clever stategies?
If truth be told, I am not in the least interested in ‘Politics’ either. I just want to be a citizen of a normal country, instead of Gordon Brown’s utopian “multinational state” (sic). I see my activities as an SNP member as being my civic duty, rather than any profound interest in ‘Politics’ per se. Generally speaking, I think the less ‘Politics’ people have in their lives, the happier they are. So good on you! I’m sure that ‘Betting’ is a far more productive hobby. Do you also indulge in impressive consumption of tobacco and alcohol and other “bad things” too? You’d better watch out or else a Politician might notice that you are enjoying your life, and curtail all earthly pleasures…
1. Pre-devoulution, the barometer of the independence mandate used to be the SNP’s Commons seats: if they won a majority, “negotiations” would commence with Westminster. According to that poll, they stand to win 71% of Scottish seats. If that were to happen, a referendum would seem like overkill.
Stuart-I am not incredibly wealthy,I just “do the best I can” which is an overcrowded profession on Betfair and Spreadfair these days.
You were right about the alcohol and tobacco and especially the former.If you want to read all about me,buy Mike Atherton’s ‘Gambling’ where I am described as the Skoda of pro- gamblers but also as the quitessential 21st century player.
He was very rude about my flat but I forgive him !
I was also interviewed by Des Wilson (Mike Smithson might know him)for his book Swimming With The Devilfish but although the interview lasted two hours I don’t get a starring role.
5. malc19ken
I disagree with you there Malcolm. You are a relative newcomer to pb.com, but I have followed the “Jack W” story on and off from near the beginning. I believe that I am correct in saying that I was actually a ‘Peebie’ before Jack W, then I didn’t visit pb.com for a few months, and when I came back “Jack W” was all the rage. Then we had various tearful farewells and mystery threads (all tedious in extremis), and then it turns out that “Jack W” is actually a committee! It just proves the old adages about committees. I always found “Jack W” to be pretty useless - both in terms of laughs and political gossip. I used to be in a tiny minority of Peebies in holding that opinion. Now I suspect I am in the vast majority.
Andrea I miss. Jack W I certainly would not.
9
You mean that ‘Jack W’ is not actually a singular boy but a multiplicity?
10. Philippe Magnan
Yes, that is my understanding of the situation. I am willing to stand corrected if any other Peebies here present are better informed than I.
7. rullko
Correct. However I think that it is pretty clear to any reasoned and reasonable observer, that in order to gain international recognition of Scotland’s renewed status as a sovereign state, a referendum is necessary. There are no hard and fast rules on these things, however every major interested party, including the monarchy, have stated that they would respect the wishes of the Scottish people in this matter. And it is pretty clearly de rigeur, in Europe at least, that if you wish to clearly establish the views of the people on a major constitutional issue (and nothing is more fundamental than a nation’s sovereignty) then a free and fair referendum must be conducted, duly observed by international election monitors.
8. URW
I am honoured to be in such esteemed company
Wow! You are “the Skoda of pro- gamblers”. What an accolade! I wonder what Mark Senior is? “The Ford Edsel of amateurish bar-chartographers”?
Scene 1. A police station in Crewe.
Detective Inspector. “Nick Clegg.”
Detective. “Handsome guy, looks a bit vacant, posh, and a serial sh@gger in his dreams.”
Detective Inspector. “You misunderstand me. It was an order.”
As a former staffer at John Smith House, Lorraine Davidson of The Times is ideally placed to talk to Scottish Labour insiders during this ongoing crisis.
(+ grotesque cartoon: “Cirque du Soleil Écossais”)
“One Labour MP said: “Wendy might think she is cleverer than everyone else on the planet but she should not treat us with such contempt. This madness has got to stop.”
He added: “This was unadulterated selfishness. It is unforgivable that we were not consulted. We do not want to fight the next general election on the constitution — but now we don’t have much choice.”
[Former Labour MP Martin O’Neill, Baron O’Neill of Clackmannan] said: “As Denis Healey said, when you’re in a hole stop digging. Someone needs to take the spade from her.”
One MP said: “Des Browne is expected to be in charge of two wars and handle the Scotland brief, it is unsustainable. We need someone dealing with Scotland on a full-time basis and someone who is a strong communicator.”
One [Labour] MSP said: “People are a bit down. Wendy is thoughtless rather than malicious. She dives in without thinking and leaves other people to pick up the pieces.” He added: “Most people are just keeping their heads down because they have no idea how we get out of this.””
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article3904248.ece
To address the subject of the article, the Telegraph blog has an extensive series of articles by Jonathan Isaby on the by-election here:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/politics/threelinewhip
The blog is long on colour about politicians and short on details about Crewe & Nantwich. Perhaps the most interesting observation in the posts is the comment that Mr Isaby had not seen any Lib Dem posters (not that I read much into that).
Can we please NOT have yet another overnight thread hijacked by monomaniac pub bore Stuart Dickson? As a fellow Scot, I object to his utterly predictable propaganda. He never posts on any other subject and never deviates from his ‘SNP great, others shite’ line.
Stuart - you are not persuading anyone here. You are not creating a climate of inevitability for independence by influening UK opinion formers. All you are doing is reminding people like me who actually care about Scotland why the SNP is so awful.
One of my colleagues was part of the Tory horde in C and N. He seemed pretty downbeat which persuded me to put some money on Labour. Not that I think they will win but the risk reward is pretty good at those rates.
Rod Parsley endorsement of McCain
Big fuss on the Left about this guy whose endorsement McCain received.
I don’t see anything wrong he said in this video of Mother Jones: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WXZbIGJrDkg
Do you?
Meanwhile …. The Jack W Committee For Public Safety nominates a member to post their next collective comment :
http://www.bbc.co.uk/london/content/images/2007/10/19/webgettyarsenal_440×330.jpg
Err…. has no one been to Crewe yet, or is everyone on their way this morning? Hope to go tomorrow.
Would like to know what is going on. Afraid that I Do not expect a significant Lib Dem result - kicking the Labour Government will be the priority and the Conservatives are better poised than we are.
Henley might be more fun - any idea if/when that is likely?
Meanwhile …. Stuart Dickson is accussed of hypocrisy by the Scottish Labour Party after calling them a “bunch of useless vegetables”
http://www.wayodd.com/funny-pictures2/funny-pictures-the-lettuce-dork-1NV.jpg
I didn’t realise that you were a committee Jack, an other illusion shattered - They’ll be telling me The Archers isn’t real next.
I thought that you just couldn’t make up your mind!
1 etc…. Stuart, I think you show Mike a total lack of respect by constantly hi-jacking threads he has written very early on with the same old off topic nonsense.
Midpoints at Crewe.
CON 1.43
LAB 4.4
LD 14.0
No great enthusiasm for any Party as yet.
21 Icarus. Do not mock the Committee ….. the consequences are dire :
http://www.liverpoolmuseums.org.uk/walker/collections/lastseefather/graphics/large/lastseefather.jpg
22 - it may be off-topic (what is somebody who hasn’t been to C&N supposed to do?) but it’s not nonsense. The point about Labour not wanting to fight the next election on the constitution is extremely important - they need to portray it as a Lab/Con fight in Scotland and desperately need to marginalise the SNP. They have no hope the way they are going, will probably drive many Unionists in Scotland to the Conservatives, and, worse, boost the English Nationalist vote in England which will inevitably flock to the Conservative banner.
Apologies again to test, I can’t work out why your name keeps appearing as a default in my computer.
23 ? given this is a Labour seat I’d say that was pretty strong enthusiasm for the Tories.
C&N — from the News
“All the clever money is now on the constituents of the formerly safe Labour seat of Crewe and Nantwich returning a Tory in their by-election on May 22. That would cause a political earthquake so large as to make Labour’s local elections disaster appear like a mild disappointment.
Politicians who have already been up to the constituency to campaign report that the 10p tax rebellion is the only show in town. When David Cameron visited earlier this week he found himself beseiged by questions about it.”
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/43916/Brown-is-digging-his-grave-with-his-refusal-to-help-the-low-paid
23-Prior to the YouGov poll showing a 26% Tory lead over Labour, the Tories were trading in the 1.4s at Crewe……and Nantwich.
Labour could be backed at 4.2.Admittedly this morning the Lab price has drifted, but so has the Tory price and nobody wants to back the Lib Dems.
25. But it’s EVERY thread that he does it. And it is not what you could call analysis either, it’s just propaganda. Ok, we could argue about whether it is nonsense until the cows come home. But it is disrespectful to Mike to constantly go off topic so soon.
One thing I find unsettling about this by-election is the selection of Tamsin Dunwoody so soon after the death of her mother. Here we have at the top of the thread from the Independent a beaming candidate with Jack Straw just days after her mother was buried. I think it must be very tough for her at a time of distress to run a campaign as intense as a by-election. So soon after her death looks cynical and cruel. I’m saying this as a Labour supporter desperately wanting her to win. It just doesn’t feel ‘right’ and her grinning doesn’t feel ‘normal’ in the circumstances.
Good messages requesting support from Labour’s enthusiastic agent -unfortunately I can’t make it because of other commitments. Numerous regional staff members from other areas have been drafted in. I suspect the prob for Labour is that in this hitherto “safe” seat the members have got lazy and there is no decent voter ID, so it will be a case of banging on every door.
And the Cons will have the same problem because until Dunwoody’s death, this contest was for them a flag-flyer only, and Mr Timpson will have been on his own.
If support for Labour is as low as Yougov suggest, might they fall to third place in this by-election, as the Tories did in Littleborough and Saddleworth?
15. 25. 30. Stuart, you’d be very welcome to join in the discussions on Vote-2007 or UKPollingReport (Anthony Wells Election Guide on RHS of this page). I post there as “NoOffenceAlan”.
I like Stuart Dickson posting. As long as you know where he’s coming from (which is pretty clear) his posts can give coverage to certain stories and perspectives I wouldn’t pick up elsewhere. And that has to be useful from a punting perspective. The SNP are the most popular party in Scotland. I’d be disappointed if we didn’t have at least a handful of enthusiastic posters on this site.
The Independent article leads with an anecdote. On its own it means nothing, but the anecdotes are racking up. Roger’s report of left-liberal friends who are now strongly antagonistic to Brown mirrors my own conversations with friends and colleagues who have always been left of centre.
Mid-term governments take a kicking in the polls. Sean Fear reminded us yesterday that:
“Lest the Conservatives get carried away, however, they performed even better in Labour’s heartlands, in 1967-1969, and 1976-1978, but Labour still held these areas comfortably in subsequent general elections.”
But I think something qualitatively different might be happening. With the decline of clearly defined class distinctions Labour moved away from their original base and, since the mid-90s have been advocating centrist managerialism with discreet redistribution. Now they don’t seem to be managing very well, have engaged in catastrophic illegal wars and the redistribution is in the wrong direction! None of their supporters are having their interests well represented.
The swing back to the governing party come the general election is likely to be much weaker this time around.
[28] All the clever money at C & N for the tories? Probably the finest tipster on here (after MS)—Jan from Norway—has put money on labour.
If its a genuine bet, i.e. not an arb or a covering bet, the result will be very close. Confirm please Jan?
Off topic, I have a dispatch from the Oregon primary (I happen to have been in Oregon on holiday).
Oregon is the only state to vote entirely by post. Ballots were dispatched last Friday so a few will have been returned when Hillary was in the ascendancy before North Carolina/Indiana - but they say most will be returned this weekend with Obama very much the flavour of the moment. That is something to note for betting purposes if something happens to change the campaign in the next few days - most votes will have been cast by mid-week next week despite the 20th May election date. Both candidates are in the state now.
I went along to an Obama event at the Linn County Fair Ground in Albany, Orgon, this afternoon. I am not an Obama supporter particularly - mildly pro-Clinton - but he is clearly the man to see right now. They didn’t make it easy to get tickets - you needed to go to one of three collection points as they were not available online. The event was at 3.30pm on a Friday in a relatively rural area 80 miles from Portland. Turnout I would estimate at 2,500 to 3,000. Stump speech had several mentions of McCain but only one very brief mention of Clinton (and then in conjunction with McCain regarding gas tax holiday) - that was telling I thought.
Obama was a good speaker - not amazing but very good. An interesting point I noticed was that he had a Q&A which he handled well, but he only really relaxed and bantered with an African American lady (very much a minority in rural Oregon) who asked a question. Don’t think it’s a problem for him as he was perfectly capable with other questioners - just thought it was interesting.
Newspapers reported from a Clinton event at Jackson County Fair Ground about 150 miles further down the I-5 on the Thursday evening. Clinton’s team claimed a turnout of 1,200 but newspapers say half that and that campaign staff had to remove some chairs which, if true, really is amateur hour. This was an evening event so to get a third of the turnout (tops) compared with a weekday afternoon event for Obama is again telling. Generally, the newspapers have turned heavily against Clinton since North Carolina/Indiana. Lots of talk of “exit strategies” and “diehard” Clinton supporters.
Passed an Obama office in Portland. They were obviously very busy and said they were calling on identified supporters getting the postal ballots sent in. Very professional - had the feel of a well run committee room in a British election. Newspapers say Clinton isn’t doing that - her people are focussing on undecideds. For me, if a party is canvassing on election eve or on the day in Britain, that sounds like terrible news to me. By that stage, you should know who your people are and be getting them out. Obama was doing that.
In a more minor sense, there were no Clinton posters and many Obama posters. Newspapers say the state Clinton team hadn’t received posters from the central organisation until today. Given people already have postal votes, again it’s amateur hour.
The Obama campaign are saying they will clinch it when Oregon ballots are opened on 20th (they will need further superdelegates of course but these are now coming thick and fast). I have seen nothing here to suggest that isn’t completely right.
33. Labour did fall to 3rd in the Ayr by-election for the Scottish Parliament in March 2000.
Looks like the Indy is giving Brown his final warning:
‘This newspaper welcomed Mr Brown’s succession on the basis that he was committed to social justice, a practical green agenda and a rules-based internationalism. If he is to have any hope at all of recovering the situation – and it is beginning to feel as if a point of no return has already been passed – he needs to start to take decisions and to defend them on the basis of the strong convictions that we believe him to hold.’
It wouldn’t suprise me if the Independent gave qualfied support to Cameron at the next general election.
Good morning all pbComers, and to the JackW municipal, collegiate, corporate center.
33- sean fear- I fear you may be right. That will be the end of Brown
A man in crewe said to me on the phone ‘I’m a Labour member, but I have not decided who i’m voting ofr yet….’
I remember people like that - Cons members in 1997….
I swallow does not make a summer
33 - And the Eastleigh by-election in fact, in some ways an even more remarkable result.
re 36. Can I confirm that my money is on a Tory victory although, as I say, the best place to bet is on selling Labour on the general election spread markets. The Tory victory in C&N will give them a belief in themselves which will communicate to the markets.
Last Friday afternoon, in the aftermath of the local results, the euphoria on the spread markets was such that you could have sold Labour at 249 seats at 1pm on Spreadfair and bought Labour at 223.5 less than two hours later. I got on and I know that URW did as well. Fantastic profits in such a short time.
37 James. Many thanks for that on the spot report. Are you in Oregon for the primary or have you moved on ??
35. I’m not trying to banish him from the site. He actually comes across as quite a nice bloke, and I agree he can be quite insightful at times. It was just this morning I was looking forward to reading the thread over a cup of coffee, and yet again I had to plough through all his off topic posts. Anyway, my last word on the subject.
To get on topic myself, my prediction for C&N would be;
Con 35%
Lib Dem 33%
Lab 21%
Oth 11%
44 - I have moved on and have just arrived in Seattle. Only in Oregon by pure chance really. As I mentioned, though, the primary is effectively over this weekend (unless it’s really close) as it is uniquely all postal.
Interesting experience - really what I saw (and I’ll freely admit what I saw was a few towns on the I-5) was one way traffic and I think as a genuine neutral Obama will win very well.
F.T. Headline. “Brown, a banned word in be-election town.”
44 James. Thanks for that. Perhaps if you have time you’ll be good enough to send some further reports. Enjoy the rest of your holiday.
What was remarkable about last Friday,Mike, was that as you say the LAB Seats collapsed from 253(I should know) to 223 and THEN went back into the 240s before settling in the 230s.
Two points regarding your advocacy of the Sell of LAB Seats ‘on the come’.
In its favour strangely enough is the added boost given by Stuart Dickson in his heavily criticised post at 2.There it is suggested that LAB could take a heavy beating in Sc otlan d which would be a great help to your Sell.
On the other hand,expectation is running so high that I think the Tories need to win well in C&N for it to impact on the Spread price (240.0-247.0).
I certainly am not suggesting a Buy of LAB !BTW I am offering 10.9 the Scot Nats if anyone is interested in buying.
In the past by elections have been the catalyst for change.
Will Gordon Brown echo Queen Mary, ‘When I die you will find Crewe and Nantwich engraved on my heart’
Well while Gordon is in Cornwall instead of Crewe (according to Guido) I hope he has taken a copy of that new book to fill the weekend with.
Monopoly for the masses - in my own words!
How the, ‘Daily Mash’ sees Gordo’s troubles.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/in-pictures/oh%2c-dear-god%2c-no…-20080510940/
50) Hi URW - did you used to be the proprietor of UBF?
Anyway, nice to have a pro punter on here to redress the imbalance between chatter and tipping. Welcome.
Everyone seems to think Con have this in the bag. Two words: Ealing Southall!
46. Have to agree with you there. It’s good to have someone like Stuart keeping an eye on Scotland, though he’s far from the only contributor from Scotland - it’s just that you don’t notice the others so much because they don’t bang on about it all the time.
Yes, the SNP are doing well at the moment in the polls. I have a reasonable idea what it must feel like for them at the moment because, as a Tory, we’re also enjoying the unusual position (in the last fifteen years or so anyway), of being well in front. The biggest difference between the SNP and Tories in terms of practical politics though is that they’re in power and we’re not.
It’s obvious that part of the reason for the popularity of both parties is a genuine acceptance of them as a potential government (before the May 2007 election in the SNP’s case), but at least equally important is Labour’s unpopularity, and in the case of the SNP, the price of oil. Perhaps one of our resident statisticians could check how close the relationship is between the revenue from North Sea oil and the share of Scottish opinion polls going to the SNP? It looks to me to be very close.
As far as C&N goes, I’d love to predict a Tory gain. I would have been campaigning there today (there’s a coach going over from local constituencies), but I’m playing cricket this afternoon so can’t. The key battle will be convincing the public of who is best placed to kick Labour out - and I fully expect Labour to lose the seat. The Lib Dems have a hard job persuading the public that it should be them, but they’re that good at it that I wouldn’t write them out. Either way, the public’s collective mind will probably be made up by polling day and unlike Cerrig, I don’t expect a close result - either the Lib Dems will storm it with the Tory share only edging forward, or it will be a comfortable Tory gain with both the Lib Dem and Labour shares dropping.
And finally!!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/10/conservatives
A first for the Tories, a councillor telling fibs about having cancer of the willie!!
54-Still there,Political Capital as founding father and admin but fortunately not the techy wizard.
This is my SECOND favourite forum however.
55 - Agreed, however there are a lot of differences, mainly that then we were in the midst of the Brown bounce and now we are not. Also I suggest that having had our candidate in situ for a while rather than parachuting a local celeb in will be a boon.
55. Where they started from 3rd place and were up against Brown in his ‘honeymoon’. Things are very different now.
55: That was the Tories, alone, ramping things up. This time it is almost everyone.
57: Gordon lied in the Commons about what Wendy Alexander said, so the Tories have a lying councillor, Labour a lying leader.
56. David, I think the fact that the Tories start from a fair bit ahead of the Lib Dems, is balanced out by the fact that the Lib Dems excel at by elections (and the Tories don’t). That is why I think it will be very close between them as the anti Labour vote wont know where to go. Though we both seem to agree that Labour has little chance! Anyway, it should be interesting, and not that long to wait.
55 - Ealing Southall is completely incomparable. A bigger swing, the Conservatives not the established challengers, in the middle of the Brown Bounce (and Con slump), a constituency where familial/ethnic loyalties were dominant (and which therefore isolated it from being a barometer of national opinion) etc etc
41 - Is there not a case for thinking that Labour are doing almost too badly for a change of leader to happen? The prospects of victory are so dim that it could end any possible leader’s career before it had started. As long as there’s some recovery before an election then most of the candidates are young enough to go through a spell in opposition.
61 Ralph. All politicians lie. It’s in their DNA. Partly it’s us the punters and the media that are to blame.
A Conservative government will be no better and no worse than previous governments. We’ll get disappointed and disallusioned with them in the end. Was ever thus.
56/62 - I think that the Cons are close enough, and the Labour collapse so large, that a split in the anti-Labour vote won’t prevent a Conservative victory. They will probably not need to do much more than exploit differential turnout and get their existing voters to the polls.
61 re 57
Don’t have it yourself then, no, ah well who knows there may be power in prayer!
“It wouldn’t suprise me if the Independent gave qualfied support to Cameron at the next general election.”
I hope not!
64: Jack, possibly I’m naive but I expect something to happen to a PM who lies so blatantly at PMQs.
Good morning all , always nice to read Stuart Dickson’s long analyses of 130 voter subsamples from opinion polls , strange they do not appear if the subsample happens to be favourable to the LibDems .
Left a lay bet last night on Betfair at 1.4 on Conservatives , found it had been matched and I could get my money back with a small profit by betting on them at 1.42 . I have been involved in 9% of all the bets on this market so far from my initial £ 10 bet .
RE The Blairs. Tony is supposed to be helping Gordo behind the scenes to win the next election whilst Cherie is doing her best to stab him between the shoulderblades. Initially it sounds a fairly even handed approach … but it doesnt really add up.. and why is the book brought forward by 6 months? Does Cherie think Gordo might be gone by the time the book comes out??.
“Left a lay bet last night on Betfair at 1.4 on Conservatives , found it had been matched and I could get my money back with a small profit by betting on them at 1.42”
Now i understand why pensioners get so worked up by extra pennies on their pension
On C&N. My ARSE has already called the contest for the Tories so David Herdson can accomodate his box with a clear conscience and sally forth with bat and ball with impunity !!
My early impression is that the yellow peril are fighting for second place in the expectation that Labour will collapse to third and that Cammy will secure a Conservative by election victory that, let’s face it, is rarer than a salad chez Nick Soames !!
36 Yes, that *may* make things different, this time. Back in the late Sixties and Seventies, it was a straight choice between Conservatives and Labour. As election time approached, disillusioned Labour voters remembered that they disliked the Tories more than Labour and there was a swing back to the government. People who’ve switched from Labour to Lib Dem, Plaid, BNP, or a whole variety of independents may not come back to Labour in the same way.
LABOUR’S STRATEGY:
The Tory is a toff. Our candidate on the other hand gets the seat because who her mother was, who herself was helped by the position of her powerful parents. We are the anti priviledge party of equal opportunity.
The Tory is not local, he grew up a few miles outside the constituancy so he can’t be a good MP. Ours is from Wales but her mother came here from miles away to be your MP and was good.
I get it.
71 LOL alex I am not a pensioner yet but these small profits mount up . I am all green £ 25 up on Conservatives so far . My Obama / Clinton market is £ 150 green on both of them from a £ 5 initial stake .
64. Not all politicians lie, and in fact very few do. Certainly it’s generally the case that politicians often make assertions that are open to challenge, or give a partial version of the facts, but lying - saying somthing they know is false with the intention of misleading - is in fact rare. It’s one of the main reasons why politicians are notorious for not giving straight answers - they don’t want to lie but equally don’t want to give an answer that might be embarrassing.
67. Can’t see the Independent backing Cameron except on specific policies. More likely to recommend a vote for the Lib Dems in 2010, I’d have thought?
68
Naive, yep! thats the word.
You aren’t related to this guy are you?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candide
68. You’re absolutely correct James. You are niave !! …. but in a rather charming Victorian way.
Prime Ministers are the biggest fibbers of all. In the modern age you don’t get to the top of the greasy pole by telling the truth.
70: It suits the Blairs better if they can sell an ‘apres moi le deluge’ meme rather than a Gordon does well one.
74: And don’t forget Labour’s candidate is such a decent person that she was out campaigning for her mother’s seat before the funeral.
I think Labour have an awful lot invested in the brand name ‘Dunwoody’.This is double-edged because if they obtain a better than expected result,political pundits in the blue and yellow corners will be quick to point this out.
In straight conventional, by-election terms, LAB should already be out with the washing and the Lib Dems competing for 2nd favouritism.So far this has not happened.
78. I agree with David Herdson. The outright lie is unusual. The partial truth is very common. This was summed up well in the exchange between Hacker and Sir Humphrey.
“Is this the truth?”
“The truth and nothing but the truth”
“The whole truth?”
“Of course not”
re 78. I always thought that Jimmy Carter was doomed when he promised ahead of his election that “I will not tell a lie”.
Do we want our leaders to be truthful?
Just had a look on Betfair and the Lib Dems are still in double-figures and comfortably third favourites behind Labour. That seems very silly to me, though the value bet (and the one I’ve gone for) is to lay Labour.
80- “In straight conventional, by-election terms, LAB should already be out with the washing and the Lib Dems competing for 2nd favouritism.So far this has not happened.”
Really? What other by-election examples have seen this happening?
I think Stuart’s contributions are useful - we don’t have many ScotNats here. But there is a faint element of pub bore in starting straight in at post 1 without apology for ignoring the theme of the day - he’s clearly a nice chap and will perhaps take this on board.
I’m concentrating on my own patch at the moment so can’t say much about C&N. But locally I’m seeing some similar patterns to London. The Labour Guardian vote (very significant in Broxtowe) is in good shape despite everything, as is a large group of people who are really LD or Green but vote for me at GEs. We don’t have a large ethnic minority vote but what there is, is also supportive. The big unknown is that there are lots of “LDL”s in working-class areas - Labour identifiers (”I usually vote Labour”), Labour last time, doubtful how they’ll vote. I’m not meeting many people who’ve definitely decided to switch, but I’d assume that some of them would if the election were tomorrow.
I don’t regard them as lost to us, but people in this sort of mood will often switch at a by-election. Insofar as Crewe is traditional working-class territory, this may be relevant. On the other hand, I can confirm Capt Spaulding’s note that there are lots of Labour volunteers converging on the seat - there’s certainly no sense of giving up on it.
78/81 - that was what the Paxman/Howard thing was all about. Howard couldn’t answer Paxman’s question coz although he thought he knew the answer he couldn’t be sure. So he stalled.
C&N — from the News
“‘Labour collapse’
In recent years, the Liberal Democrats have made by-election upsets one of their specialities.
The party is practiced at swinging into gear when the by-election whistle blows, mustering activists from around the country to help with the canvassing ground war.
They are starting here in third place and face the danger of being squeezed as Labour and the Conservatives slug it out.
But their candidate Elizabeth Shelton is confident. “The Labour vote has collapsed now,” she says.
“People see the Conservatives as hypocritical. This is easily achievable for us to win.”"
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/7392928.stm
alex @ 84- Any by-election contested by the Tories when they were in power and Thatcher’s star was on the wane.Any by-election in the John Major era.
The point I am making is that currently, Labour are political pariahs and that no majority should be unbreachable.This one looks ripe for the plucking and yet you can still bet 1.4 the Tories and Labour are still firm 2nd fav.
There’s talk that there has been a poll in C&N by a “relatively unknown” pollsters. I would expect it to appear this weekend - perhaps in the Sunday Times.
This could have a big impact on the betting and also which party is seen to be most capable of unseating Labour.
My guess is that it will show the Tories and Labour running almost neck with the LDs behind. It will, of course bear little relationship to the actual result as we saw in the last two polls in by elections - at Hartlepool and Gwent.
85
In 1983 many senior Labour politicians were hoping a poor result in the Darlington by election would mean the end of Foot. Darlington was, (given the circumstances) a good result for Labour.
Who knows what would have happened if Labour had lost?
82. “Do we want our leaders to be truthful?”
I know it’s said tongue-in-cheek, but it’s an interesting question. There’s plenty of evidence that the most popular politicians are those who do tell it straight and aren’t too worried about offending some along the way. But they also tend to be the politicians resigned, compelled or determined to stay on the back-benches. Whether we want the same qualities in leaders is a different matter.
76 David. Sorry David but your defence of politicians is noble but plain wrong. Ministers actual or shadow and their surrogates regularly mislead, refuse to answer questions and simply tell porkie pies with breathtaking chuputz that only ensure that they together with tabloid journalists and second hand car salesman enjoy such a well deserved piss poor reputation.
82 I’m pretty sure that we don’t. A truly honest politician would have some fairly harsh things to say about the voters, as well as the political class. So, he’d get nowhere.
91 That’s a better answer than mine. Such a politician might well be respected, but would never reach the top. Or would only do so in exceptional circumstances.
15 Leave Stuart Dickson alone. I enjoy reading his SNP perpective on the developments in Scottish politics as, I’m sure, do many others. If you’re not interested, then don’t read his posts.
As for C & N. I know Nantwich reasonably well and have even visited Crewe several times in the past. It’s going to be a comfortable win for the Tories. I can feel it in my bones and my bones rarely let me down.
re 90. All the speculation was that Dennis Healey would have become leader in place of Michael foot and the Tory landslide of 1983 would not have happened - certainly not on the same scale.
Alas there was the late great Vincent Hanna to deal with and he spent the entire campaigning tormenting the SDP candidate who was shown to be not up to it.
I do miss Vincent, a former close colleague of mine, on occasions like this. Nobody has quite replaced him.
96, too young to remember him really, but didn’t he guest in Blackadder III, during the rotten borough episode?
Incidentally, Cherie Blair’s claim Tony is ‘advising’ Gordon could explain why Brown’s doing so badly:p
92. Refusing to answer questions is certainly not the same as lying, and misleading, for example by using selected accurate facts, while less morally acceptable, is still not the same as an outright lie. Nor is simply getting something wrong when the facts weren’t to hand and a best guess or inaccurate recall turned out to be inaccurate, though it would be if the real answer were later checked and a correction not made.
96
Agree! Hannah had a dry wit and a sceptical way of looking at the camera that said volumes. Hannah’s ‘Black Adder’ appearance is a classic.
96 I’m sure 1983 would have been a much more respectable defeat for Labour (perhaps along the lines of 1987) with Healey in charge.
89 Mike. I can confirm that your expected poll in C&N is not of the ARSE variety in either quality or scope.
However let me assure you my ARSE will be in full production as the by election draws close to give PBers the very best of service.
88 - By-elections under late Thatcher/Major may well have seen Conservatives as effective nohopers. Just querying whether they would have been third favorites.
This election is also fought in the context of the Conservatives not having taken a by-election since the eighties. So it’s not surprising that the Labour numbers are just about holding up at this stage.
Politicians and honesty !?!? … was ever thus !!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a89oCEBC4ok
This is a changed political landscape,alex.This is the first time that Labour have been pariahs since the MF era.
The capacity of the Lib Dems to outperform at by-elections has long been on the agenda.I suppose the difference here is that Labour are the meat, and that as butchers the LD’s hack and cleave best against Tory carcasses.
I suspect a surprise LD win. The LD’s will continually twit the Tories with the line of ‘are you promising to re-instate the 10p tax band?’ and ‘will you promise to re-open closed Post Offices?’. The problem for the Tories is that the better they do in the polls the more people are going to expect them to put their money where their mouth is. And they won’t and their Treasury team will tell them they can’t!
104 - What point are you making then, URW? That the market odds are just wrong, or that this isn’t a conventional by-election? Or something else?
C&N
If it’s a lovely sunny day - Labour win
If it’s a rainy day - Tory win
Well thats sorted then…
89 - As the poll is in the Sunday Times would that suggest that the pollster may well be MRUK?
Looking back at previous by-election polls I did find that ICM got the result of the Ayr by-election very close although that appears to be an exception to the rule.
108. Weren’t the Cardiff N and Finchley GE polls quite accurate too?
105 - I don’t think people are factoring in the probability of differential turnout working strongly in the Conservatives favour.
If the Conservatives get, say 80% of their GE vote to turnout, and Lab 60%, then that reduces the swing required to pretty small numbers.
*110 - that should have read - if, say, 80% of Con GE vote turn out, and 60% of Lab vote do…
Lying politcians?
You only have to look at the idea bandied about around engineering a Gordon Brown departure due to ill health to realise how low we think politicians would go.
It’s extraordinary that people would use such a line illegitmately to cover up something else that they were doing, deliberately misleading people.
At any level that kind of stunt is poor, yet somehow its consdiered as an option.
The point I am making is that the LAB price is too short at around 4.5 and the further point which I am making is that all the LAB eggs are invested in the ‘Dunwoody’ brand name.
The second point contradicts my first point so I am just dabbling in the market.
100
You haven’t thought of the, Cancer of the Willie’ scam to get elected sean have you?
It could catch on!!
Vincent Hannah in his finest role !!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jC7uHyLa7S4
105. What’s the Lib Dem policy on those issues, as a matter of (not very much) interest?
107. Thats proper punditry that is.
*Gwyneth Dunwoody (Lab): 21,240 (48.4 per cent of the vote)
*Eveleigh Moore-Dutton (Conservative): 14,162 (32.6 per cent)
*Paul Roberts (Lib Dem): 8,083 (18.6 per cent)
Labour majority: 7,078
Turnout: 60 per cent
Let’s get back to basics.
31 HenryG “One thing I find unsettling about this by-election is the selection of Tamsin Dunwoody so soon after the death of her mother. …. I think it must be very tough for her at a time of distress to run a campaign as intense as a by-election. So soon after her death looks cynical and cruel. I’m saying this as a Labour supporter desperately wanting her to win. It just doesn’t feel ‘right’….
HenryG I agree. The woman and her family should have been given time to grieve.
This action by Labour is not a very British way of behaving.
113 -
108/9 - I wonder if the problem with by-election/single constituency polls is that the pollsters try to conduct them using conventional methods that they use in national polls.
Whereas if they were doing them properly, they wouldn’t be weighting towards the make up of the actual population of the constituency but would be doing much more work (beyond the basic “turnout filters”) into weighting towards the likely voting population. Analysis of ward turnouts etc is something that is feasible in localised polling which can never be done on a national level.
re 19 and 56. Been to Crewe a couple of times over the past week, last weekend and yesterday, and have reported back on each occasion.
AT PRESENT Looks very safe for the Conservatives, it could be a landslide, in which case maybe 8000 even more. However from what I could see Labour’s campaign has not got into full by election mode yet, probably that will be this week, mainly due to their candidate only being selected a few days ago. At present the Liberal Democrats might be challenging for second, but there was scant evidence of a high profile poster campaign from them. Probably indicates their canvassing of the seat has been limited in the recent past. Several areas of the twon have not had candidates at a local level till this year. However like Labour in their campaign will probably not get highly actionable till this weekend and beyond.
Conservatives have some very large posters that could be effective.
I reported last week that the Conservatives had leafleted as early as May 1st, the Liberal Democrats started two days later with one of their newspapers, mainly gunning for the Prime Minister and the 10p tax issue, since then I understand the Cons have put out a newspaper type issue as well, souyrces say this had been delivered by post. To the outside the Cons appear the better organised and they have the advantage of their large win in the new Unitary area on May 1st.
I have to say that I did not see swarms of workers about, but the expectations for the Conservatives are high, people I spoke to seem to anticipate a change, Labour AT PRESENT, it could change over the next week, seem to be in serious trouble.
(However let us not forget Hodge Hill 2004, 28% swing against Labour. Did it change much?)
Turnout, this is Cheshire, will be a high postal vote, this has been an occupation of the parties this week, think deadline for applications was Wednesday, weather if it holds will help, I would see it at around 50% of the register. However we now know that registers are not being cleansed as much as in the past, therefore of those who are in the seat and can vote it could actually be higher than that.
This is my thought, Crewe may not be the resolver of the actual result, ie at this stage simply the extent of the Conservative majority, that may well be the likes of Sandbach, Nantwich and the sizeable rural areas,where the Lib Dems may try to get some joy, in the past they have had a good presence for example at Sandbach.
What I have no idea about is the extent and effectiveness of telephone campaigning, this is where Labour may get some joy and in the last week perusade their past supporters to give them another chance or at least abstain. The latter could well affect or reduce the size of any majority.
If this is any help.
Off topic but here is a fact to back up the Mike Smithson rule that “When Cameron is in the media the Conservative support strengthens”.
From Iain Dale there are 1,542 mentions on Lexis Nexis in April for Cameron.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/
To all pb.ers
You want answers? You think you’re entitled? You want the truth? YOU CAN’T HANDLE THE TRUTH !!
SHAMELESS CLINTONS
“…Mrs. Clinton’s brothers, Tony and Hugh Rodham, had lobbied the president on behalf of criminals who then received presidential pardons or a sentence commutation from Mr. Clinton.
Tony Rodham helped get a pardon for a Tennessee couple that had hired him as a consultant and paid or loaned him hundreds of thousands of dollars. Over the protests of the Justice Department, President Clinton pardoned the couple, Edgar Allen Gregory Jr. and his wife, Vonna Jo, who had been convicted of bank fraud in Alabama.
Hugh Rodham was paid $400,000 to lobby for a pardon of Almon Glenn Braswell, who had been convicted of mail fraud and perjury, and for the release from prison of Carlos Vignali, a drug trafficker who was convicted and imprisoned for conspiring to sell 800 pounds of cocaine. …
…
They took furniture and rugs from the White House collection that had to be returned.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/10/opinion/10herbert.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin
121. “However from what I could see Labour’s campaign has not got into full by election mode yet, probably that will be this week”
“Turnout, this is Cheshire, will be a high postal vote”
By the sounds of it, Labour’s election campaign will not start before the postal votes go out. That’s not going to help her chances.
Many thanks dave at 121.I have launched MY campaign !
Sorry about a couple of spelling errors, one thought struck me after submitting the report, in a way it is similar at the moment to Bromley, quiet at this stage and no evidence of the Conservatives being adversely affected. But things there went the opposite way over the last week or so.
BUT to do that the other party’s would have to find a campaign issue to focus on, as the Lib Dems did so effectively at Bromley. I am unaware of anything of that ilk appearing at the present time. As I said in the above posting they, in particular, seem to be focussing on the Prime Minister.
Will go again hopefully the back end of next week, things may well have changed a bit by then and Labour especially may well have a higher presence. Judging from past by elections expect them to have a demonstration or something like that on the street close to the offices of their leading challenger, at present presumably the Cons.
O.T.
McCain admits NOT voting for Bush in 2004!!!
Play the video, if you still believe this guy can win in November!
He is shocking!
Mrs Smithson can book that Barbados holiday….
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arianna-huffington/truth-alert-mccains-freud_b_101021.html
Meanwhile the United States which in the overall scheme of things is more important.
Obama has another super delegate.
His camp now claims only need another 160 to reach the 2025 figure.
If Obama gets 70 pledged delegates in the remaining primaries they
would need less than a hundred of the supers.
Re West Virginia, could Clinton pick up all the delegates there? I know there are base levels of votes that candidates have to get to score delegates, think it is 17 in most places, if that applied in West Virginia, he might struggle to get that!
125 It would be poetic justice if Labour rushed the by election and then hurt their own chances.
A few things about Crew. As dave s says in 121, although there will be a lot of media attention on Crewe (cue lots of tv clips of trains) the surrounding areas are just as important. I think the results at the last few GEs overstate the underlying ’safeness’ of this seat for Labour. When you look at its demographic it should be ‘normally Labour’ seat but not with the kinds of majority they have had recently. I think that was a function of Dunwoody’s large personal vote plus a very loyal traditional Labour vote in Crewe and the local impact of the national disarray of the Conservative Party.
As things stand, this is a bad seat for Labour to defend, more so than other seats that might look more vulnerable. There aren’t many of the kind of voters Nick Palmer mentions who are either still loyal or hate the Tories so much they’ll eat the knackers off a scabby donkey rather than vote for them (ethnic minorities and GMWs) and the Labour vote in Crewe is the kind of traditional working class vote that has clearly become severely disgruntled recently. Given all that I think the Conservatives should win quite comfortably. If there’s a collapse in the core Labour vote in Crewe (very possible) then they’ll come third. In that case it could be quite tight between Conservative and LD to win.
Interesting that Crewe could be so important given that modern politics really got going with the unplanned (?) meeting between McDonald and Baldwin at Crewe railway station in 1924 where they agreed that whatever their differences they had a common interest in shafting the Liberals in general and Lloyd George in particular.
128
I also think that Obama will be the nex Pres.
However, if you were honest, you would never write that McCain admits NOT voting for Bush.
Maybe he did not. That is his own business.
But he did not admit it in that interview with Billy Boy, and will never admit it.
You are ridicoulous. Or stupid. Or something like dishonest.
129. I’d be very surprised if he picks up nothing out of WV.
133
Pablano of 438 predicts he will pick up around 8 in WV: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/everything-you-always-wanted-to-know.html
My feeling on Crewe at this stage is still Con win LibDem 2nd for the reasons I posted on here the other week . It is however a byelection and they often take on a life of their own just as Tony Lit and the defections first boosted the Conservative campaign in Southall and then deflated it .
Derby Update…
Another twist, now the Lib Dems DO want to run the council own their own.
Obviously a Labour pact was too risky for them, they could sense the Tories revving up the printing presses and sharpening the knifes!
So, looks officially like we have a Lib Dem minority run council in Derby. The last red area gone in that area of the East Midlands.
It will either make or break the local Lib Dems who have a huge amount riding on this now with a team that only contains two or three recognised ‘heavyweights’ that have always led the group on every issue.
They also are going to have to really stretch themselves to fill the cabinet positions and chairs of commissions etc. They have less than ten people who have any real experience of the council and many of those have been back seat drivers.
They didn’t have a manifesto for the 2008 local elections, just 10 bullet point pledges for the City