Double Carpet on Sunday
May 11th, 2008
All Change in Russia – But No Change At All
Balakirev considers the Putin-Medvedev handover
After a week in Russia where reminders of past Soviet and pre-Soviet glories were much in evidence, clues to the future under Dimitri Medvedev and Vladimir Putin are still hard to find. Medvedev was sworn in at a stunning ceremony which looked more like a tsarist coronation than an inauguration. The next day, the ex-president, Putin, was voted in as prime minister by Russia’s parliament.
Then, on Friday, Russia’s annual “Victory Day” holiday, the tanks rolled, as the week’s consolidation of political authority was given tangible expression with the first major military parade through Red Square since the 1991 Soviet collapse. For outsiders, the blatant appeal to imperial nostalgia may have seemed disturbing. But there are more important concerns about what was not on display. Specifically, we do not yet know how the Medvedev-Putin duumvirate and the machinery of power will function.
Here’s what we do know.
After eight years in power, most of that time with Medvedev at or near his side, Putin has stepped “down” to become head of government. He did this ostensibly to remain in compliance with constitutional term limits.
In the past, under both Putin and his predecessor Boris Yeltsin, the prime minister was essentially a public whipping boy, someone to take the blame when things went wrong. Clearly, the notoriously thin-skinned Putin is not about to put up with that sort of nonsense from his protégé Medvedev. So it’s all change at the PM’s office, with Putin about to get up to 11 deputies (compared with five in the recent past). He’s bringing in his own press and protocol officers, and the press corps assigned to the building where the prime minister sits, called the White House, have now been banned from most areas.
It’s not hard to guess what’s next. Instead of the head of government being held responsible for every pothole in the country, authority and accountability will presumably descend to ministers and deputy PMs. None of this is necessarily negative. Managing Russia’s mammoth bureaucracy is more than a one-man job, as Medvedev himself well knows.
Back in 2005, when Putin put Medvedev in charge of several major programs to fix the ailing education, health and other national services, he described excessive bureaucracy as the main obstacle. Asked at a press conference how he thought this could be dealt with, he said, “To fight in the way that all countries fight against bureaucracy, that is by concentrating administrative resources on solving priority tasks that face the country and those tasks the citizens of the Russian Federation are waiting to see resolved. For this very reason Dmitry Anatolevich Medvedev has been delegated to the Government.” It’s worth noting, however, that Medvedev wasn’t terribly successful in this assignment.
More importantly, where Putin is in charge, secrecy prevails, with all important policy debate conducted behind closed doors, with decisions announced in stentorian terms after a minimum of trailing, often via intentionally false speculation by spin doctors. With such a “modus” now extending downwards into ministerial offices, it is hardly likely that governance is set to grow more open.
But what about Medvedev? His public persona of pleasantness to the point of banality has led some to imagine signs of liberalism and modernity. Wishful thinking. Elected entirely on the basis of Putin’s endorsement, Medvedev’s authority is in fact Putin’s – and both know it. The precise architecture of power will start to become clearer over the coming weeks, as Putin – more likely than Medevedev – reveals more about the shape of his government. But if there were a betting market available on whether much of substance will change under the new Russian president – there isn’t by the way – you’d do well to put your money on no change at all.
The author is a Russia & Eastern Europe specialist working in public relations and is a former international correspondent.
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That’s a very good article, Balakirev.
Does anyone have an opinion on whether Putin will simply run for President again next time, or whether he will make the role of PM permanently more powerful and stay where he is?
OT and due to the shortage of comments..
I guess a lot of people are countinng their blessings or their sorrows..
I just wanted to repost this….
There I was listening to the footy on the internet, live commentary from Pompey, my mobile rang and it was my brother telling me Fulham were safe. It was only then that it dawned on me I was listening on the internet and that it was about 90 secs behind live ordinary radio. LOL !!!
What an escape. Roy Hodgson is a god!
Its Margaux tonight!
1 Agree Morus
Although I was somewhat distracted by the very large ad on this page “Find your Russian beauty today” complete with voluptuous Sharapova like picture. I presume the ads are tied to the articles ? You don’t get this with Crewe..
Very good article.
Kind of off topic, in recent weeks there have been various rumours regarding the Litvinenko poisoning. Mary Dejevski in the Indy did a good article http://tinyurl.com/58uk89
This saga has soured so much between Russian and Britain, and I expect both sides are covering much up.
Remember when Blair and Putin were bosom buddies?
I will take the plunge if my wagers on Chelsea to win the Premiership pay off later this afternoon.
by Herbert Proper Snr May 11th, 2008 at 11:06 am
OOOOOOOOOOOOPs!
2 - “Roy Hodgson is a god!” Certainly is. He so nearly got Finland to qualify for Euro 2008.
“ID cards are a bit like Europe here - always good for some excitement.”
If Labour tries forcibly fingerprinting me like some common criminal in return for an obscenely expensive and illiberal little card which won’t entitle me to anything my passport doesn’t already — and expect me to fork out extra for it too! — I can promise you much more than bloody “excitement”.
Where is the new President on the political spectrum? Will he try to move Russia in a more liberal democratic direction?
Politics in Russia all seems very colourless and dry. I would much rather have seen the restoration of the Tsar….
7: Quite. That’s why the cards are voluntary. See umpteen previous threads. But you’ll need to give your fingerprints for the passport, under Labour, Tories or Monster Raving Loonies - that is, if you want other countries to let you in.
10 Its all about labour state control!
Labour = big brother!
10 so they are not voluntary then, its backdoor enforcement. Disgraceful. No wonder there are so many Eurosceptics.
11. Other countries only require you to have fingerprints for *their* visas, not for our passports. If you think the whole expense is down to the need to put fingerprints on passports, you are a complete muppet, it wont cost tens of billions of pounds to incorporate fingerprints into an id system. The costs are with the databases and the management of the *extra* information.
I think you will find that the general public are not to worried about the use of fingerprints, an old, tried and test piece of data, its the rest of the info the Government want to attatch to the account that has those who are concerned about freedoms, worrying.
10 - Nick, which categories of people will they not be voluntary for?
11 = 10 .. sorry
Paddy Power are laying 14/1 that Brown ceases to be PM in 2008. Huge value in my view. Sadly maximum bet is just over £11.
10, remind me again who is funding the multi-billion pound scheme?
Someone should point out to Labour that 1984 was meant to be a warning, not a guidebook.
16. Further to the above. It looks extremely likely that Labour will lose C and N and quite likely that they will lose heavily, say even money? This is despite the Dunwoody dynasty card. So a heavy loss for Labour will inevitably be interpreted as a vote against Brown and the pressure on him to stand down will mount and could well prove unresistable.
18, I hope they get Balls. We’d have a vote of no confidence within the week.
18 Labour will lose C&N by at least 10% but gordon will hang on and hang on…….
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 44% .. Clinton 48%
McCain 44% .. Obama 47%
Clinton 45% .. Obama 49%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107158/Gallup-Daily-Obama-49-Clinton-45.aspx
18
IT C and N was lost by a large swing, it might well be left to the MSM to set the ball rolling. Gordo will be in the bunker waiting for it all to blow over.
10. There’s is an air of ‘Resistance is futile. You WILL be assimilated’ in your words.
Not me sunshine! You can keep your passport!
Headline of the decade
Brown not prick, says Miliband
20. Ave it 08. Well he is the Tories best hope so if you are right that should suit you fine.
I have made this point before but it’s worth repeating. Other than Nick Palmer, I don’t hink there is a single PB poster who currently expresses support for Gordon Brown’s premiership.
More to the point Tyson, Henry G, nick c, Roger, jsfl, myself, possibly Redflump(?) And probably other Labour supporters all think he is a liability and ought to go.
Obama just moved from 1.12 to 1.09 - is it someone putting lots of money on, or is there some breaking news somewhere?
8 - There is no spectrum. These guys aren’t ideological. They are corporatists, pragmatic to the core. Remember “what’s good for GM is good for the USA”? Substitute “Gazprom” and “Russia” where appropriate.
27 It’s the mixture of corporatism with nationalism built around militarism that is worrying,
Balakirev, just to say many thanks again for the article and for coming on to the site to field comments.
Following up on Morus’s point at 1 - do you expect Putin to return as President in 2012 - or will he be content with exercising power in the PM role?
… and a rather “long-shot” question - how long before Russia becomes a proper democracy - I guess we may be talking decades?
Thanks for the article, very well written, very interesting.
If Brown leaves say, a month after C + N will he be the prime minster with the shortest term ever?
I hate to boast, no really I do, but it’s just 6 days since I recommended a buy of Obama at 13.0 on Spreadfair’s 25-10-0 POTUS index, representing generous odds of 3/1 assuming he could see off Hillary. The current buy price is 18.0, equivalent to a tad less than evens. I hope a few of you got on.
G - I think Canning is the shortest although someone will confirm where Brown would rank in the all-time shortest 10.
25. St John - are you feeling alright?
More to the point Tyson, Henry G, nick c, Roger, jsfl, myself, possibly Redflump(?) And probably other Labour supporters all think he is a liability and ought to go.
You do me an injustice.Has someone been impersonating me?
The only Reds I support are the Red Devils. Nick P has called me a creature (I was quiTe proud in a way). I assure you I am in no way of a socialist tendency.
I despise Brown and I despise the socialist ideology equally. Do not mistake a healthy scepticism of all politicians (in Ken Clarke’s words the poltical ruling class) as anything else but that.
29, not well informed at all on Russia, but surely there’s no guarantee it will drift towards proper democracy?
Perhaps China’s mix of communist politics and capitalist economy will prove more attractive a proposition.
Stjohn its not a bad bet as I am increasingly thinking he is under threat.
The issue is how to get rid of Gordon. A stalking horse style challenge procedure just isnt there, at least not quickly, assuming Gordon digs his heels in.
Its going to take a fair effort.
C&N
What the hell happened in the news? Yesterday, AFTER the poll giving the Cons a big lead, around 2000CAD$ of mine was called at an average odds of 1.46.
Now, the odds are … 1.15!!!!
Did something happened?
25 stjohn - What I find surprising is that so many in the media, etc., are speaking openly about Brown leaving office - it’s become a really hot topic.
I was interested to read Henry G’s views earlier today on how this might conceivably come about, given the intractible procedures required for his removal provided for in Labour’s constitution. He suggested that, instead, it would be a case of him being approached by a number of party elders. I’m sure he’s right.
Lament by the big O for Reading, Watford and Hillary:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMiNRr5hSYM
Peta, you wanna give me good odds on a the Cons winning C&N, please?
I’ll take 1.3 for 2000$
37. The thing we need to take into account is Gordon’s bunker mentality. I dont see a leadership challenge rather I’d expect the party at parliamentary level to become unmanageable in tandem with crap polls that will force him out.
It may be however that something very high profile amongst the PLP for Gordon to fully realise that the game would be up.
This assumes of course things are going the way they look to be going.
Greetings from Moscow!
Russia is not as authoritarian as people make out, though it’s not Sweden either. On the spectrum people here think Medvedev is slightly more liberal than Putin. But, they both believe in “free markets” and abhor Communism. But first of all they are Russian nationalists. Not necessarily good, but certainly not awful.
Will Medvedev come out of Putin’s shadow? Who knows. Certainly too early to tell.
Living 30m walk from Red Square I didn’t see or hear any rumbles of tanks. Was the whole thing overhyped?
Apo-logies for slight ramblings, been on the old pivo and vino, and was long weekend over here!
Whenever people talk of Gordon going, they seem to forget that it wont make any difference to Labour! A recent poll showed that Labour would be even less popular with each of the obvious alternatives.
The problem is bigger than just Gordon. It is the tiredness and emptiness of being into their 12th year. There is no alternative. Gordon now just has to steady the ship, and do the captain’s duty of going down with the ship, hoping that Labour can remain the largest party.
42. Thsi indeed may be so.
But if you were a backbencher fearing job loss, you might want to try it anyway….
16 Brilliant spot stjohn, which I’ve only just seen. Like you, I was only allowed £11+, but this price is sooo much better than the quarterly prices on offer at Betfair. I still think it’s unlikely to happen and if he can get through until the summer recess, then he’s safe until at least the Party Conference.
The drip, drip, drip effect must be having a significant effect on him though as well as on the party as a whole.
29 - DC, it’s possible Putin might enjoy a return to a new, less fraught presidency. There is even talk of a re-jigging of the electoral schedule, allowing him that option in 2010. I’m a bit skeptical.
Regarding evolution towards a “proper democracy” — I’m an optimist, but…. Russia’s resource economy is a political curse. The problem is that the state can gorge itself on resource taxes (and the elite can enrich itself on rents), without making too much of a general demand on ordinary folks via taxation. There is still no widespread sense that the state ought to be answerable to those who pay the bills, because the bills get paid via oil, gas, etc.
42 - Yes but the public doesn’t know much about the other potential leaders. The same was the case with David Cameron before he became Leader.
However you are right that a new Leader would not solve the problems automatically. Brown was popular when he promised change, he is unpopular because he cannot deliver it. Someone not as associated with New Labour or imprisoned by its orthodoxy may be able to offer enough changes to win back floaters and restore the base.
Also, many of Labour’s problems have been self-inflicted mistakes and mis-steps, which could and should have been avoided.
41 - The tanks had plastic thing-mes on their tracks to protect the roads and stifle the noise. Seemed to work quite well.
A major reason why it probably won’t happen is that whoever might take over from him faces the prospect of a heavyish defeat at the next GE, which unless he/she plays it very skillfully would probably ruin their career also. Far better, maybe, to allow Gordon to take all the flak and start afresh.
The Huff round-up of US Sunday morning politics shows :
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/11/tv-soundoff-sunday-talkin_n_101172.html
41 No problem with people being Russian nationalists but why is it necessary to show that nationalism by an assumption of underlying enmity from and to the West? There was a window around turn of the century when a newly revitalised Russia under Putin seemed to be ready for a western alignment, re-inforced by Sept 11th, but that rapidly closed. Presumably errors on both sides but a missed opportunity.
48 - This is the most likely outcome, but it all depends on how bad it gets. If polling continues in the low twenties then I think Brown’s position becomes untenable, especially with the 2009 Euro/Local elections coming up.
38 LOLOLOLOLOLOL
Not over (yet) for Watford!
PS Reading = HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
US ELECTIONS
Very useful site: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?year=2008&off=0&elect=1&f=0
52 I do hope the play-off final does not end up Bristol City-Hull City,as with the greatest respect to both clubs,they would barely match Derby County’s miserable points tally this year-Watford or Crystal Palace would at least make a better fist of it.(BTw -Well done Roy Hodgson-you did this years great escape,last year my club West Ham won 7 out of their last 9),and in 2006 Portsmouth pulled a hyge late tuen-around-wonder who next years Houdini will be?
)
54 last sentence referring to P{ompey should obviously have been ‘huge late turn-around’
The talk of GB’s supposedly imminent departure feels like the excitement over Cash for Honours - wishful thinking about what /should/ happen rather than what /will/.
Remember that Guido and other prominent bloggers were convinced that Blair would be brought down in the autumn of 2006. Every week seemed to bring a new crisis, and the Betfair “Blair Switch” market jerked about wildly.
Even the trad media got into the act - pushing Blair out, we were told, would draw the sting from Iraq, put an end to suspicions of sleaze, and help Labour reconnect with their centre-left roots.
The bloggers yelled and ranted, the media pontificated and whinged, the Brownites launched their coup - but Blair still took another 9 months to get off the stage.
By the time he left, Blair had had ten years in power. There was a genuine case for renewal, and a viable, obvious successor. And, of course, there was the not-quite-a-promise contained within the Granita pact.
None of that exists now.
We know that the formal process for getting rid of a Labour leader - 70 MPs, followed by a non-secret ballot of the membership, isn’t it? - presents an impossibly high hurdle.
Yokel’s scenario of a series of massive parliamentary rebellions sounds more reasonable. But surely the backbenchers would see the risks of appearing wildly disunited as being even greater than those of going into an election with Brown as leader?
If the PLP wants to persuade Brown to step down, I think they first have to have some sort of viable alternative in mind. Given that the only MP who tried to stop Brown’s coronation was McDonnell (and he didn’t even manage to unite the Campaign Group behind him), what are the chances of that happening in the next year?
Can an alliance of Compass, Blairites, and the old right be formed? Do they have any obvious common ground between them, other than being disenchanted with Brown?
If not, then 14/1 for GB to be gone this year sounds a little on the low side to me…
54. I’d argue that if Watford and Crystal Palace lose to Hull and us, then it suggests that they’d be even worse in the Premiership.
56 Rory - sure it’s a long shot, no one would pretend otherwise, but I think you’re wrong in calling it wishful thinking. Certainly from a Tory perspective, a number here most have expressed a preference to see Brown continue as PM.
57 but Watford have the experience to compete at the top level whereas you will be lol! (Hope you beat Palace tho’)!!!
Amusing merryground in Russia between the 3 great offices of state:
Putin moves from President to PM
Medvedev moves from CEO of Gazprom to President
Zubkov moves from PM to CEO of Gazprom (probably)
50. Presumably errors on both sides but a missed opportunity.
One of Putin’s key constituencies is the military and security crowd, from whence he came. In fact, he was chosen by Yeltsin (and the oligarchs) largely because they felt threatened by the spooks and they thought he would keep them sweet. He did. But making nice with the west was never on the KGB’s agenda. In fact, they wouldn’t be the power they are without us as their adversaries.
So there was that. And then there was the idiot Bush whose administration totally misread all sorts of things, from Putin’s soul to future oil pricing.
I think Labour are in between a rock and a hard place. Brown is a disaster. Keep Brown and likely things will get worse. Lose Brown and immediately the country will demand a GE. Either way chances are Labour will get hammered.
In such a environment what politician in their right mind is going to stand for the Labour Leadership? I suspect Labour are stuck with Brown until the GE. Better to take the hit (and it could well be a 1997 like hit I suspect) and rebuild. Forcing Brown into calling an election now (’go to the country’ or ‘go to hell’) before further damage is done may be the lesser of two evils. What is the issue to do this - 42 day detention perhaps or voting down the budget in July. Once the hit has been taken get rid of Brown and look for a suitable replacement.
Of the Labour Cabinet who has the ability or the track record to take on the task? Thanks to Brown, there is no-one currently in the Cabinet who isn’t tainted or discredited in some way or up to the job who can lead a fight back post defeat (it’s a Conservative’s dream).
The only Labour politician I have seen post defeat who could likely lead a fightback is Livingstone (he’s normally a winner - only beaten by Boris ). He would be able to stabilise the party base and put them back on track (like Howard did for the Conservatives). Given his track record there is little chance that Livingstone could defeat a first term Conservative Government unless they seriously screw up but he may save the Labour Party from even more serious meltdown.
56. rory. According to the Cherie Diaries, Blair would have gone earlier if Brown had agreed to follow his agenda.
I think Blair nearly went a few times before he finally caved in.
58 I agree, PfP. If it’s wishful thinking, it’s by the Lefties not the Right. Gordon’s doing just fine as far as DC and his supporters are concerned.
It’s unlikely to happen though. Labour party rules and the lack of a convincing alternative are the main obstacles. It shows however just how bad things have got with Labour that the odds against him going this year are only 5/1, despite these obstacles. And of course, if C&N goes very badly, those odds may begin to look charitable.
13/14: I’m relcutant to have another round of debate here on ID cards since it’s a policy issue rather than an election/betting issue, and opinion is so entrenched that people tend not to believe stuff that doesn’t fit their assumptions, but briefly:
- As far as the Government is concerned, they will only be compulsory for foreign residents, in the form of electronic visas, and for any high-security environmment where ID is already required (where the card could replace an existing card, such as for airport staff). The law enforcement angle (’Is this suspect who he says he is?’) is now covered only by the register, which we still propose should eventually be compulsory (about 10 years hence).
- Insofar as their use speeds things up, we may well make some services faster/cheaper if you can instantly prove identity with an ID card.
- The private sector might likewise give incentives for use, e.g. students might find it easier to get mortgages if they can prove identity with the card.
- The cost isn’t £10s of billions as you suggest. The setup cost is currently estimated at £254 million, with running costs of £500m/year. Most of the running costs assume large take-up and are related to actual card production, and it’s intended to be self-financing by people choosing to pay for the cards. If it flopped (or was cancelled), the running cost would be correspondingly low. This is also the reason that it’s illusory to think that cancelling the project would save anything - it saves the money of peoploe who would otherwise have chosen to buy the cards, but that’s most of it.
See http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/11/08/id_costs_change/ for more details and links to critical comment.
“students might find it easier to get mortgages”
Nick, I don’t think you mean this. I hope you don’t mean this, although until last Summer it was happening now and again!
65
Can you enlighten us as to when any project put forward by New Labour came even remotely close to budgetted cost?
Dome?NHS computer systems? Scottish parliament building? Olympics?
Tax credits?
64 the question is what Labourite wants the job? Guido’s post on Miliband was very revealing. That DM said he’d back Brown to lead us up to the GE - as Guido says, the message is “you take the fall for that, chum.”. Miliband does not want to lead the party to defeat.
Even a caretaker PM - Straw? would he go right to the country off the honeymoon bounce? Probably not as the risk of losing and becoming the answer to a TV quiz question about shortest PM is too great. Nobody wants their career to end in ridicule.
And if a would-be caretaker DID step in, then you’d have war. Because once a “caretaker” is in place he may suddenly think he can be more than a caretaker. Why should he give it up? Miliband would have to challenge or risk being left behind. Then in any contested election Labour party rules mean it would drag on and on…
Who would the challengers to Brown be?
On thead…Are these two what Gordon and Tony always wanted to be?
62 Could we see the time when Gordon stands down and nobody wants it
One potato… two potato… in the Cabinet office.
Wiiliam Hague was on the radio afew weeks ago with Alan Johnson. Hague what was asked what the stupidest thing he had ever done. He replied that, after the worst defeat since the turn of the century [or some such] deciding it was a good time to lead his party.
Johnson could be heard laughing.
I have thought of those words alot recently. Bet alot are thinkig the same [incuding Johnson].
The saving grace would be Harriet who has the great benefit of never knowing the limit of her abilities or the extent to which many people find her patronisingly annoying.
66. Debt is good, don’t you know?
60 - Andrew, yes, there is lots of talk about Zubkov moving to Gazprom, although also of Miller, the CEO, moving up to chairman. We’ll see. These are guys Putin places a lot of trust in — part of his inner circle. Clearly, personal relationships and trust play an enormous role, given the potential for double-dealing and betrayal by rival elites.
ID cards = subjugation of us to the state. Why is this politically acceptable?
Given the fiasco of lost HMRC data, the huge NHS cost overruns on IT projects, why should people accept this project or the nice rounded numbers on costs. The whole thing stinks. Why should people with passports (from outside the UK) need the wretched things unless of course it is to help improve Government finances. Would support for ID cards really help win a by election?
SNL : — Clinton “My Supporters are Racist” : http://capitalpolitique.blogspot.com/
70. Sally - indeed and it’s a shame because William Hague was and is a far more competent politician than his record as leader relates.
Indeed Harriet would be the perfect dupe - the antithesis of Margaret - leading her party to doom!
Personally I wouldn’t want to be around when she failed. Her scattergun dispersal of blame would be something to see (They’re all picking on me. It’s because I’m a woman…..)
;0)
68 Exactly, Test; you have fleshed out the ‘no credible alternative’ side of the argument and I can see why Miliband and one or two others wouldn’t want the job now. Maybe Cruddas is a possible, but that swings the Party in a very different direction and he wasn’t very well supported by MPs at the DL elections. It’s unlikely he would have more support now. Denham is another possible but why didn’t show any interest when Brown stepped down?
Nope; I think Labour are stuck with GB and it will take something cataclysmic to shift him.
On reflection, maybe DC and his team shouldn’t try TOO hard at C&N!
45. There is a reason that oil is called the “Devils P&*(” by some in the oil industry. Russia is already deep into Dutch Disease - though not as far down that road as Venezuela.
I used to work for Shell. What no one seems to mention is that most oil producing states have an aggressive attitude to non-oil fuels. For decades the Saudis made it a part of their oil deals that the companies concerned *not* to do renewables. In the past decade that wall has been massively broken down. The majors now spend far more than any government on this. The clue is the fact that they don’t want to depend on a bunch of corrupt idiots for their supply of feedstock.
Has anyone spend some time thinking about this. The US spends something like 5% of GDP on oil (foreign and domestic sourced). A change away from oil would be just another change in the industrial landscape. Saudi get 98% of it’s GDP from selling oil. What are they going to say when we switch to algae produced diesel (for example). Will the then Russian government (which will be totally reliant on oil by then) say? What will they *do*?
56. The “thing” (A.K.A the establishment) undoubtedly flinched when the prospect of bringing down the government in such a fashion. There was no conspiracy, I think, just a concensus by a number of individuals that it was better not to lift that flat rock.
65. So its coercion and blackmail of the electorate. One thing is true Labour have become more sophisticated in the way they subjugate the electorate.
I have never met a Russian let alone been there, so what I am about to post is all media generated, but I get the distinct impression many Russians feel democracy is overrated. It can be messy and chaotic and throw up the odd wally who is embarrassingly torn apart by the nasty free media.
re 10 Nick P I’ve told you before please stop lying about this. Even the UK Passport and Identity service says on its website
we expect the first ID cards to be issued to British citizens in 2009. In the early stages of the scheme you will be issued with an ID card if you apply for a first adult passport or renew an existing passport
What is voluntary about that?
I know you must be distracted by the prospect of unemployment but please try selling the ID card to us rather than lying about it.
69.
I reckon that you are right in this. The Conservative lesson is that the next (few) leader(s) of the Labour Party are going to be failures. No one wants to be Heseltine (the wielder of the knife), Hague, Howard, IDS or Portillo.
I think that Brown will be pressured *into staying* - he will be made to ride the plane into the ground.
re 65 more lies
What are the tipping points that would force Brown to step down this year?
I suggest it would take a combination of factors.
1. Losing C&N to the Conservatives
2. Losing either a vote on 42 days or the vote on the 10p.
3. A Poll from Yougov that puts the Labour vote under 20%.
Of these 3, Brown can control the votes issue by climbing down. His future is still in his own hands.
74. I am sure she would be able to cast herself as a heroine and the party would be grateful she took a bullett for them. The trouble is most of the backbenchers would get caught in the crossfire.
Only about a week ago on the Daily Politics Campbell stated Labour could not contemplate more than one ‘unelected leader’.
On that basis they would have to go straight to a GE…
65 Sorry Nick thats bulls*hit.. “people choosing to pasy for the (ID) cards.
No one in their right mind would choose to pay for something they didn’t want unless they were coerced into it.
You arent trying to bury bad news are you Nick??. Theres so much bad news to choose from.,,,, I D cards seems one of the lesser evils possibly ???
65. Nick Palmer says set up costs for ID cards is just £254m or £4 per person. Annual running costs is £500m or £8 per person across the whole of the population, although not everyone will need to change a card every year but some will more than once. Who is kidding whom that the costs are so low.
79 ID cards and dissembling the truth.
Chris A it is just the corruption of being in power for 11 years. All power corrupts…..
Nick P tries to defend something that 11 years ago he would probably have found illiberal, but today alas he thinks that because a Labour Govt says it should be so, therefore it must be right.
The 10p tax removal also illustrates how far his party has strayed from its original purpose. Protecting the poorest workers.
In time I am also sure that Nick will look back on these events and reflect that he and his party got on the wrong side of the argument.
The way I see it, the only cabinet member who would have the gall to stand against Brown in challenge would be Ed Balls- so it’s a good job that he’s one of his closest allies. If there is a challenge, it’ll be from the backbenches, and I can’t see it being anything more than what happened to John Major in 1995. The only way Brown will go is if he himself decides it’s over, which is of course, not inconceivable. If that did happen- then it’s very hard to say how things would transpire- and the likes of Milliband would probably wait for the first “what if” opinion polls before throwing their hats into the ring.
But assuming that Brown stays, what happens post 2010? Let’s assume that the defeat is similar to 1997 for the Conservatives- for arguments sake. This limits Labour’s options severely. I can’t see Milliband wanting to lead a Labour Party of that state- there’s the threat of being a William Hague, same for Douglas Alexander. That leaves the Blairite Alan Johnson or the ones with the egos- as someone has already commented- Harriet Harman or Ed Balls (if he keeps his new seat- likely). This could spell civil war- Labour will have bitter Blairites backing Johnson and Brownited with Harman or Balls. The only way the Labour Party would be on the way up then, is if it chose Johnson. This is of course assuming Milliband does not stand- who in my opinion is the only contender who is both going to keep his seat in 2010 and unite both party factions. However, if Milliband did not have the guts/ambition to stand against Brown last year, does not have the guts ambition to wield the dagger now- I don’t think he will have the guts/ambition to lead a Labour Party reeling from a devastating election loss. He’ll wait for 2014.
re 65 tell me one thing that I can do now that I won’t be able to do without one of your beloved plastic cards. Go on, convince me that life won’t be worth living without one?
Once you’ve racked your brains and haven’t come up with anything then tell me - even if I were to believe your figures - why your government is wasting £3bn over the course of a parliament on it?
79:
“we expect the first ID cards to be issued to British citizens in 2009. In the early stages of the scheme you will be issued with an ID card if you apply for a first adult passport or renew an existing passport”
If that’s true I am getting passports for my 2 kids this year, despite the frankly ridiculous cost (which seems to have been subject to Zimbabwe-style inflation in the last few years, and is why they haven’t got one yet)
But a backdoor ID card.
The dirty so-and-sos. Have you a link for that? I can’t believe even this bunch of shysters would be that underhand.
ID cards will turn us into serfs. That is what they are for.
86 Cruddas would stand on basis of rebuilding the Labour Party in the ways he has proposed in recent years, that would bring on challenge from the modernisers (as they still refer to themselves) probably headed by Milliband - if he doesn’t seize the chance when its offered it’s unlikely to come again - with Balls standing for something between those two options.
86 A Labour defeat on the scale of the Tory one in 1997 would be far more severe for Labour. Especially if the new Conservative Govt reduces the union funding to £50k a group and drives through a more equal allocation of boundaries.
The defeated Labour party would have barely 150,000 members, <200 MPs and 4,000 councillors. It would be £20m+ in debt with its funding reduced by 60%, because 70% of its funds come from the unions today.
Potentially bankrupt.
In comparison the LDs would have a similar number of councillors and 60k members, 50 MPs and no substantial debt. They would have an operation that was funded and could out compete Labour in many parts of the country. A surge by the LDs could get them more councillors than Labour, 1/2 of Labour’s membership and both would be in more concentrated groups. The parent could start to overtake their child.
Lets say someone is prepared to take it on in the full knowledge they are a dead PM walking, the complications are enormous.
Balls, Milliband, Purnell will want to ensure they are in a good spot and to ensure one of the others will not be able to outmanoeuvre them. Who is going to be able to keep them all happy? Have the authority to control them briefing against one another?
Hagues problems were not confined to the electoral landscape he had been presented with but the fact that his benchers were robbed of all but the has-beens, the dissappointed careerists or those who wanted his job after the corner had been turned [most believing quite wrongly that the new corner was just around the next corner…as it were].
There are many lessons to be learnt by looking at the Tories but it doesn’t throw up many answers.
re 79 it’s all here
http://www.ips.gov.uk/identity/scheme-what-how.asp
I’m afraid it’s too late for your kids though they will probably already have to have the fingerprints taken. You will have to take a day of work (at your expense) and perhaps drive up to 50 miles (at your expense) in order to be interrogated at some ID office.
Nick says “…..and it’s intended to be self-financing by people choosing to pay for the cards.”
So thats all right then.
Will post tomorrow re an exhausting day at C & N factor 25 sun screen and ice lollys were available for volunteers at Lib Dem HQ!
HF add to that having the option of having to opt in to the politcal levy and being able to designate to whom it went. I believe its still a case of opting out.
91. I’ve been thinking about this HF. In my opinion, Labour is still reasonably secure for now, because the Lib Dems just don’t have the resources to target enough seats at once to break above (for argument’s sake) 120 seats even on a high national vote share (say 26%). If the Lib Dems do overtake Labour, it will take an intellectual shift and a mood shift across the centre-left of British politics. That is what Clegg, Huhne, Cable, Laws and the rest need to be preparing for; and of course, given Labour’s intellectual bankruptcy, anything is possible.
I think the Lib Dems’ best chance will come if the Tories form a minority or narrow majority government at the next election (the Harold Wilson scenario) and then go to the country within about eighteen months. I think, once out of power, Labour will succomb to some blood-letting (as Lloyd at 86 and Ted at 90 outline); and the electorate will also be pretty fed up with politicians in general if there are two elections in a short space of time. The Lib Dems would then have a decent chance to mop up quite a lot of Labour seats in the north of England.
Resources Jack? - The Labour party are broke. This will become a bigger problem the less likely it is that they will be re-elected.
Not that donors are buying influence you understand, perish the thought!
97. But the Lib Dems need resources (just like Labour did in the 1900s) to break traditional voting patterns. “Where we work, we win” and all that - as you will know from Crewe and Nantwich. The Lib Dems won’t overtake Labour until they can do what Labour did in 1997: to win seats completely unexpectedly, and with very little effort on the ground, simply because the national mood is on their side.
There are some tories on here saying that people in Labour will be calling on Brown to have an early election so they can get thrahsed and get on with the rebuilding process.
Are you completely and utterly deluded?
Just like all those Tories who were gagging for Major to call one after golden Wednesday you mean?
79: the site is wrong - I’ve reported it and it’s supposed to be corrected when they get round to it. It should say that you will be *offered* an ID card.
Can’t be bothered to get inot the serf stuff!
95 yes Sally you are right a £50k cap and opting in with a choice of parties would break Labour down into something that the LDs could challenge. The LD candidate in C&N is (I understand) a trade unionist.
96 The Lib Dems do lack country wide resources but in the last GE were already able to attract as many volunteers per constituency as Labour. The LDs can concentrate these better than Labour and pick off 50 seats. The problem at GE05 was they tied to decapitate the Tories and squandered their resources fighting a volunteer force that was on average more than double itself. In GE2010, the LDs can pick off a severely weakened Labour carcass. If they only had the vision to do it. On the other hand if they continue fighting the Tories like in C&N or Henley they will be wasting finite resources on futile wars.
Also it is the case that in the recent locals the C’s and the LD’s increased their % of councillor candidates and Labour’s declined. Labour increasingly lacks the manpower that is willing to compete.
In the past Labour filled the gaps with expensive telephone canvassing. Today it does not have the cash to fund this.
ID cards will not “work” to put it euphemistically unless they are compulsory. “Offered” an ID card is yet more bulls*it, The aim is compulsion.
99 we can dream, can’t we?
In IT circles, the rumour does that the work around to the ID card issue forcing (via legislation) banks to implement the technology in all bank cards. Your driving license and credit cards will be ID cards, in effect. The best bit is that the government will try to make the banks pay for it on the grounds that it is an anti-fraud measure.
88 - The passport prices have gone through the roof in recent years so that the major cost of ID cards will be treated as a “sunk cost” and therefore there will be little demonstrable savings from scrapping them.
Well its all happening on the C&N market for the LIB DEMS!
Someone was offering £50 @ 55s on the Lib Dems (£2750 of risk) and was just taken out only to then see LDs backed down to 13s! I suppose our man is the person trying to back £12 @ 55s right now.. interesting.
106) Oh yes and the same person (i assume) simultaneously laid all the money waiting to back the tories - take a look at the chart.
88. Deluded huh?. If you do not understand what the phrase ‘damage limitation’ means then that’s your problem.
There was no point in Major calling a second election a few months after the previous one in which he was victorious. He would have considered that he had more than enough time to turn round the economic situation (which his government did). His problem and Browns now is that the brand was/is fatally tainted. By failing to recognise that and failing to respond by going to the country sooner rather than later all Major did was worsen the situation - hence the battering the Conservatives got in 1997. Whether it would have been less of a hammering in prior years is hard to tell but the longer one hangs on when people are against you usually means that their reaction becomes increasingly hardened.
Brown is tainted, whatever he does, an increasingly large proportion of the country will view it badly and the longer he goes on the worse it will be. My supposition was that Labour can either take the medicine sooner or later. The longer they leave it the worse it is likely to taste!
Brian Padicks election diary in todays Mail On Sunday makes for funny, but also grim reading for the Lib-Dems. He paints a picture of a dysfunctional party machine that offered him little or no support. Nick Clegg comes across as completely ineffective, self absorbed and neurotic. The portrays the party as cash strapped and going nowhere. Really, its a pretty devastating account of Britains third party.
106. Tomorrow’s Focus delivery will presumably read “Lib Dems gaining momentum in race for Crewe and Nantwich…”
110) Lib Dems - Winning On Betfair?
109 - for months people on here have been saying that the Libs will lose a slew of seats at the next election due to a 2 party squeeze from a genuine Lab/Con fight. The saving grace for the party looks like being that this may not be the case, that they may hang on to their number of seats (if not the actual current seats themselves) due to Labour’s mass unpopularity
“the [identity] register, which we still propose should eventually be compulsory (about 10 years hence).”
In other words, if I chose not to renew my (non-fingerprinted) passport when it expires in 9 years — I’ll still be forcibly fingerprinted like some common criminal, and at my expense!
Three words: In. Your. Dreams!
109. Absolutely agree. I read it earlier. Fascinating reading.
112. Agreed. Brown is probably an even better turn up for the book for the Lib’s than than the Tories.
Paddick’s piece made me buy the Sunday Mail for the first time in years. Hillarious, worrying for the LibDems and very very readable. If he writes a book, I’m buying. Paddick comes out very well, LibDems very badly.
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.
Whats everyone knocking on about the cost of ID cards for?
Sure I know a fella that can get you one for about a tenner….
65. So now I’m going to find it harder to get a mortgage because I won’t hand over my details to the state? I’m sorry Nick, I respect a lot for your manner on here, but your party are absolute bastards. You think the people are just here to be controlled and monitored don’t you? You don’t care that 80% of the population don’t want this massive central database! “The plebs don’t know what’s good for them - and if we were honest about our intentions there would be outrage, so let’s just do this bit by bit.” First target those who want to travel, then those that wish to buy a house, then the newborn who will be registered on Labour’s children’s database which tracks each of their performances and nutrition before they’re too old to protest. You don’t believe in democracy one bit do you? Well, who cares right? You can manipulate the public into allowing you to invade a foreign country with sham intelligence reports so you can do anything you want. And the worst bit of it all is you think liberty is something silly that only partisan Tories and hippy liberals care about. Three centuries of Enlightenment values means absolutely bloody nothing: those idiots that bang on about such stuff are the flaming “liberati”.
Bastards the lot of you.
115
I always thought Brown was dysfunctional. When the history books are written, there will be theses written on how the Labour Party let it happen
If Brown is to be ousted rather than step down of his own free will, it will in practice need either a cabinet coup or a challenge. There are too many non-entities in the cabinet who wouldn’t risk their job for the first option to be realistic.
The mechanics are stacked against a challenger. It follows that if a challenge is to be brought, it will need to be someone of stature, probably currently a backbencher with nothing to lose and in all probability someone who hates Brown like poison. I wonder if the next Labour leader will be someone whose name begins Mil after all.
100. The bit of plastic isn’t what bothers people: it’s the massive central database. Do you really not understand that?
The real thing that comes across in Paddicks account is the complete lack or drive, motivation and ambition in the Lib Dem party. Which of course we’ve known all along and its for this reason that if an opportunity is given to the Lib’s to become the official opposition and consign Labour to the history books, they will spurn that opportunity. Because in the end, they just don’t have that ambition to truly change things. Very sad.
Socrates I see the problem more as this. 80% of the voters don’t want the state to use these modern methods like ‘databases’ and plastic ID, but 80% of voters also don’t want to pay the extra tax it takes for the state to keep delivering services with 1980s technology - they expect the state to be as efficient as Tesco (with its giant database and loyalty card working out what you want to buy a fortnight before you know yourself).
So at best any Government can make about 20% of voters happy.
118.
“And the worst bit of it all is you think liberty is something silly that only partisan Tories and hippy liberals care about. Three centuries of Enlightenment values means absolutely bloody nothing: those idiots that bang on about such stuff are the flaming “liberati”.”
A perfect summation. The problem with this government is they have no idea that some things shouldn’t be done. Consider. The police shot a man dead without warning (something that the *Israelis* don’t do to suspected suicide bombers). It turns out that he was totally innocent. We are supposed to shrug our shoulders and think it was just one of those things….
123 - I’ve forgotten. What is it these ID cards are for again? Currently i think it’s about terrorism, not “delivering public services efficiently”.
118. I’m sure Nick read your post with the same de haut en bas amused contempt with which he read my early effort - which made the same point a little more bluntly.
The ‘we are the masters now’ mindset is alive and well in New Labour, perhaps especially among those who in years past used to dream of a future where they would be the local Commissar rather than MP.
125 ID cards are a solution in search of a problem.
Alex, I’m in agreement with socrates about one thing, which is that it’s the database that matters, not the bits of plastic. Terrorism? Well, it might do something about border security, but so far pretty much all our terrorists are native Brits or at least ‘known immigrants’ aren’t they?
I’m more interested in looking at the hundreds of thousands of pounds that were saved in one county when a mere half dozen or so GPs in one shire town shared their database with social services’ database, and worked out together which old people needed the most help.
I know why it scares people, but I also know how much tax money we’re chucking down the toilet and how much we’re limiting the quality of public services by not having that kind of basic integration.
123. That’s ludicrous. ID cards are going to be hellishly expensive. To pretend Labour was anguished about the abuse of government power but then decided value for money was more important is absurd.
It’s just the natural stance of governments when they stop believing in anything else: power. Someone described Menvedev and Putin earlier as being pragmatic. Yes, pragmatic in the pursuit of power. The Labour party has different constraints on how much it is allowed to trample over democracy, but it certainly takes it as far as it could get away with.
Which, to reply to myself, is where the Government’s got it badly wrong. They probably should be voluntary, and for as long as they are we shouldn’t be charging for them. We should precisely follow the Tesco model and reward people for opting in to the database, by sharing the savings as a tax rebate.
I imagine the protests from the objectors will be just the same, but it’s a lot harder to argue against cashback than it is to argue against a poll tax. Oh well, I await the call if Jacqui needs to replace her SPAD anytime.
BIOMETRY AND SOCIAL CONTROL
“n the disciplinary societies one was always starting again (from school to the barracks, from the barracks to the factory), while in the societies of control one is never finished with anything–the corporation, the educational system, the armed services being metastable states coexisting in one and the same modulation, like a universal system of deformation. In The Trial, Kafka, who had already placed himself at the pivotal point between two types of social formation, described the most fearsome of judicial forms. The apparent acquittal of the disciplinary societies (between two incarcerations); and the limitless postponements of the societies of control (in continuous variation) are two very different modes of juridicial life, and if our law is hesitant, itself in crisis, it’s because we are leaving one in order to enter the other. The disciplinary societies have two poles: the signature that designates the individual, and the number or administrative numeration that indicates his or her position within a mass. This is because the disciplines never saw any incompatibility between these two, and because at the same time power individualizes and masses together, that is, constitutes those over whom it exercises power into a body and molds the individuality of each member of that body. (Foucault saw the origin of this double charge in the pastoral power of the priest–the flock and each of its animals–but civil power moves in turn and by other means to make itself lay “priest.”) In the societies of control, on the other hand, what is important is no longer either a signature or a number, but a code: the code is a password, while on the other hand disciplinary societies are regulated by watchwords (as much from the point of view of integration as from that of resistance). The numerical language of control is made of codes that mark access to information, or reject it. We no longer find ourselves dealing with the mass/individual pair. Individuals have become “dividuals,” and masses, samples, data, markets, or “banks.” Perhaps it is money that expresses the distinction between the two societies best, since discipline always referred back to minted money that locks gold as numerical standard, while control relates to floating rates of exchange, modulated according to a rate established by a set of standard currencies. The old monetary mole is the animal of the space of enclosure, but the serpent is that of the societies of control. We have passed from one animal to the other, from the mole to the serpent, in the system under which we live, but also in our manner of living and in our relations with others. The disciplinary man was a discontinuous producer of energy, but the man of control is undulatory, in orbit, in a continuous network. Everywhere surfing has already replaced the older sports.”
http://www.n5m.org/n5m2/media/texts/deleuze.htm
“That’s ludicrous. ID cards are going to be hellishly expensive”
If you take the one-off capital cost and compare it with the annual revenue budget, sure, they’ll be expensive. It would also be much cheaper in the short-term for me to buy fresh food every day than buy a freezer. Doesn’t make it a good idea.
88: “If that’s true I am getting passports for my 2 kids this year, despite the frankly ridiculous cost.”
88 — and everybody else here: GET OR RENEW YOUR PASSPORTS AT THE EARLIEST POSSIBLE OPPORTUNITY! You’ll pay less and you delay roll-out of the national identity register
121. Socrates: “The bit of plastic isn’t what bothers people: it’s the massive central database.”
Do you pay tax, receive benefits, receive a pension, possess a passport or possess a driving licence?
If the answer to ANY of these is ‘yes’ then you are already on a ‘massive central database’.
128 - I assume you are aware that the sharing of health information databases is already supposedly happening (without enormous success) under a separate Govt project? (the National Programme for IT, or whatever it’s called in its latest incarnation).
DNC Superdelegate Crystal Strait endorses Obama :
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/stateupdates/gGBsBv
134 - no it’s not. It’s on a lot of separate databases.
re 100 so now government websites are to be amended to parrot the new Labour line - wonderful.
In fact for many of these separate databases it has actually been enshrined in law that information on the two is not to be shared.
re 117 now Yokel you know Nick P is going to pop up to reassure us that’s an impossibility.
134. You cannot defend the indefensible. Imagine the ‘fuss’ the ‘Left’ would have made if Margaret Thatcher had tried to set up a national ID card and database.
139. Some people seem to lack the means to understand why data sharing is so dangerous, and such a threat to privacy.
#100 Nick, am I correct in assuming that the widespread introduction of fingerprint passports and ID cards has been delayed until 2012 and now looks like being pushed into the future?
(See this Register article).
75.”Nope; I