Is this really hapening in Tory Target Seat 165?
May 11th, 2008
Mail on Sunday
My assessment: the Tories have a 90% chance of winning
We’ve now got more information about the Mail on Sunday’s ICM poll on the Crewe and Nantwich by election and it’s clear that the situation is even worse for Labour than was being reported last night. The panel above is reproduced from the paper.
For the Tory by election poll margin of 4% would have been 12% but for ICM’s “sprial of silence” adjustment. This is a standard procedure and involves allocating to Labour half the votes of those party supporters from the last general election who now say they they will turnout but “don’t know” yet what they will do.
I cannot recall a survey in the past when this adjuster has produced changes on this scale - normally it affects the shares by a maximum of 1-2%.
My guess is that the final votes on May 22nd will be much closer to ICM’s 16% Tory lead on general election voting intention than the reported figure of 4% for the by election. Based on these figures my view is that Cameron’s Conservatives have at least a 90% chance of taking the seat.
In many ways the Crewe and Nantwich general election voting figure is more dramatic than YouGov’s national 26% Tory lead that was reported on Friday. For C&N is constituency number 165 on the Tory target list and if a 16% lead actually occurred here then Cameron would win the general election with a massive land-slide.
Another survey in the Observer also suggests that there has been a sea-change in opinion. The paper notes that “a Tory government is preferred to a Labour one by a margin of 50 to 32 per cent. In another significant boost for Cameron, more voters think the Conservatives would do a better job of governing than believe they would do a worse job”
It’s not clear from the online edition of the paper who carried out the survey and whether or not the pollster is a member of the British Polling Council.
The latest Crewe and Nantwich betting prices have the Tories at 0.4/1 with Betfair and 4/11 with the traditional bookmakers. It looks good to me.
MessageSpace Advertising
Blacks firmly in Obama’s corner versus Wright:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/09/AR2008050902638.html
Strangely, although there is an article headed “Michelle Vetoes Hillary” (for VEEP) linked from RCP, Hillary is *still* the favourite on the Betfair VP markets.
There isn’t much text in the article. This is the relevant para: The Democratic front-runner’s wife did not comment on other rival candidates for the party’s nomination, but she has been sniping at Clinton since last summer. According to Obama sources, those public utterances do not reveal the extent of her hostility.
Free money for layers!
mike the observer survey comes from politicshome’s panel of 5k. Politicshome is the most brilliant site for politics links, but I don’t think it can be treated as an opinion poll.
when might we see another national opinion poll?
Having trouble posting.
Devastating figures. That 20/1 voucher of mine on Brown going this year is starting to look distinctly warm. Last I looked the price was down to 5s. That feels about right, but if things go very badly for him at Crewe….
Sunday Mirror - Bozzer in bike red light jump shocker.
Rest of the papers are full of how deep a whole Brown is in.
Oh joy.
Re the papers Brown seems to have an ally in the FT. Weekend edition has Brown fights back with flexible working time scheme (NB not “hopes” to fight back), Dunwoody name good for Labour, Last Yougov poll exaggerated etc. All seemed to be a bit off-focus.
7 Robin. Don’t be too full of joy !! …. the News of the Screws has a double page expose on UKIP and Tory MEP’s on the gravvy train …. Conwaygate Mk II anybody !!
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/1105_brussels_exposed.shtml
Andrew Rawnsley is on the button again in the Observer.
‘Attempting to do human, he [Brown] has told voters that he ‘feels your pain’. The public are not responding with empathy for his plight, but with an even bigger urge to inflict pain on their Prime Minister. His personal ratings have actually turned for the worse since he attempted the relaunch of his premiership.’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/may/11/polls.gordonbrown
jack, face it , “our Gawd” is toast. Surely your creator is as delighted as I am!
Good movement on BF.I took your tip and Laid 3.95 LAB.I don’t buy into your apocalyptic interpretation of the polls,Mike…darkest before dawn and all that.
12 Hmmm…not sure I agree with that, URW. Dawn may be a little way off yet.
Right or wrong, I’m still buying blue.
The political and economic cycle will always, eventually, turn against the government in office, almost certainly in its third term.
Brown had the opportunity last October to give himself and the government a fighing chance of survival, at least losing a GE gracefully: he made the wrong choice.
9. It sounds like the real problem is with the system. The article doesn’t make it clear whether the UKIP guy was actually breaking any rules. We all know that the EU parliament it a cesspit of graft and corruption. The sooner the whole thing is abolished or we quit the EU the better.
The Sunday Times’s account of a trip to Crewe & Nantwich:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3908519.ece
11 test. Not too sure about toast …. more almost Brown on one side !!
In any case Cammy needs to shut down the freeloaders fast to ensure that brand NuTory isn’t soiled in the punters mind. What the voters give they can easily take away !!
13.You could well be right,Peter the Punter and especially in the short term.I too expect the Tories to have a good couple of weeks and have laid LAB at Crewe to lose a life changing sum …and at Nantwich !
However the media can be very capriciousand they don’t like a one-horse race.Eventually (monkeys and typewriters) something has to go right for NuLab and then the markets could turn viciously.
OBAMA IN OREGON
What to look for in OREGON : Is he expanding his coalition? Is he including white, blue collar-workers uneducated folks into his CHANGE-WE-CAN-BELIEVE-IN fold?
If so, he is winning Oregon with a double-digit lead, he might be the One — the Next Pres.
—
Check this out; — this is crazy : HTTP://WWW.POLITICALCAPITAL.COM
–Yes, it leads to Obama….
HTTP://WWW.POLITICALCAPITAL.COM
And those wishing to follow the campaign from a local perspective may want to look at this:
http://www.crewe.tv/
Andy Burnham - I hope you know what you’re risking…
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/culture-secretary-to-rock-albert-hall-825912.html
Qwik US Update :
SD Saturday finished Obama +5 Clinton -1.
Harry Mitchell of Arizona endorsed Obama late yesterday and Obama picked up the Ohio add on. Clinton lost two Virgin Island switchers to Obama but picked up one Mass SD to leave her minus one for the day :
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/latest_superdelegate_count_oba.php
Video of the Tory candiate in C&N: http://capitalpolitique.blogspot.com/2008/05/oreilly-interview-mccain.html#links
Just looked at the Times.. Interesting choice of photo for Gordon Brown…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00335/Gordon_Brown__335737a.jpg
test
The cracks in the Scottish Labour Party become a vast canyon. and it is all being played out in full public view
“But bitter briefing by both camps intensified, with Alexander aides calling Brown “a ditherer”, while Brown’s team dismissed Alexander as a “political pygmy”.
A senior Labour MSP said: “People are now talking about Wendy resigning. It’s a question they are asking. Everyone is demoralised.”
Another Labour MSP said: “Enough is enough. She has to go.”
However, another friend of the embattled leader said of Brown: “A lot of people at Holyrood and at Westminster are not happy with him.”
A second said: “The problem is Gordon’s a ditherer.”
A third source who is close to Alexander said of Brown’s aides: “They just don’t give a …k about Scotland. All they care about is the next general election.”
Former Labour first minister Henry McLeish also criticised Alexander. He said: “In one week we have managed to marginalise the Calman Commission, confuse the Scottish public, sour relations with the LibDems and Tories, and we now seem more keen than the SNP on a referendum.”
Labour MSP George Foulkes, who supports the policy switch, said: “The mistake was the lack of timing and lack of consultation. If the timing had been right and the consultation extended, it could have been an inspired tactic.”
… one aide close to Brown called her a “political pygmy who had left the prime minister in a state of heated anger”"
Ouch!!
So, a friend of Wendy Alexander says that the Labour Party “don’t give a …k about Scotland”? Is that really news to anyone? I doubt that it is news to most Scottish voters, who have slowly twigged on to that fact in recent months.
For some reason the link is not getting through Mike’s filter:
http://tiny.cc/yN58U
re 21. I’ve added Crewe.tv to our blog-roll. Lots of interesting things there.
30 now even Prescott gets to stick the knife in
But he describes Mr Brown as “annoying, bewildering and prickly”.
He says Mr Brown would sulk silently in meetings so often they had to be abandoned, while on other occasions, he could “go off like a bloody volcano”.
is this the man the country should have as a prime minister - for the Tories the longer he stays in place the better
9,15 And frankly, the NOW’s bit about Helmer and the breakpoint for expenses, you could often hear people in all sorts of jobs saying those sort of things - we do not hear Helmer quoted as saying he is going to fake the distance from his home to Parliament! What does strike me about that system, even if it has any merit having a breakpoint at all, is that it should be related to the Euroconstituency you represent, not where you actually live! All that would do is encourage people living near the line to move down the road!!
As for UKIP, and ex-UKIP MEPs and expenses, there was that “one day in the life of Farage” done on TV backalong. The NOW could and should have made it an article about that group, but have chosen not to do that, attempting to tarnish everyone’s reputation. I am not a world expert on MEP expenses, but my understanding was that the “attendance allowance” had been either abolished or significantly weakened a few years back when it was a real large scale problem. I do wonder whether the list of abuses quoted is out of date.
O/T According to the Telegraph Obama already has the private assurances of enough superdelegates to win the nomination. More will be released following the states Clinton is expected to take but will release in full if she tries to take Obama down with her. For once it appears there’s a genuinely interesting, timely and insightful article on this race by a UK newspaper.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/1943910/Barack-Obama-%27has-enough-super-delegates-to-win-Democratic-nomination%27.html
17 Jack Wise is a ukip mep. Helmer, in this article, did nothing worse than state he’d claim correct mileage from his home, not his postal district, “if Brussels agrees with me” . Libellous to put him in there with Wise.
The C&N Lib Dem candidate shouldn’t stand in front of those orange placards - she looks bald. A bit like Matt Lucas…
http://tinyurl.com/5p24v5
32 — I don’t doubt it for a second; Obama is the Man.
He will be able to attract the Independants, the free-thinking people in the US.
Think about it: Obama’s gonna the most left-wing leader of the West! — this would be exciting.
Even I, a right-winger, would vote for him! — for the sake of change, and the fun indetermination of it!
Obama is not scary; he is thus immune to the GOP attack machine.
The more he is being attacked, the more powerful his image will grow.
– Ok, maybe I drank to much of the cool-aid!
9 Jack.
A long article on an ex-UKIP freeloader. I think if the best the Screws can manage is the final paragraph by way of anti-Tory addition to the article, then a) it shows they couldn’t find anything more substantial, b) most readers won’t register this bit, and c) I guess he’s been slapped down by DC already - who will have already read them them their freeloading fortunes after Conwaygate.
Still finding many reasons to be joyful this morning. I guess this is what it was like for New Labour in the 90s reading the Sunday papers! NO wonder they were so bl00dy smug and cheerful!
25 That just screams out for a caption contest…..as it were.
“A senior Labour MSP said: “Having spent a week totally capitulating to the SNP, Wendy has totally capitulated to Gordon Brown. Wendy and Scottish Labour are a laughing stock.”
Former First Minister Henry McLeish said: “We have had a year of ineffective opposition by Labour while the SNP have confidently governed Scotland and their support has risen. We don’t look like a competent opposition and the events of the past week won’t have helped that.”
A Labour source said: “Gordon is furious she has flouted his authority. He has told her now is not the time to get involved in a row over a referendum. At a time when people are saying he is losing control, the last thing he needs is for the Scottish Labour leader to prove it. He can’t be seen to sack her but he could get the men in grey kilts to call on her. It could happen by summer.”
Scots Tory leader Annabel Goldie said: “Wendy Alexander tries to defend her indefensible actions of the last seven days by rewriting history - and taking the public for fools.”
‘Wendy has capitulated to SNP and Brown..we’re a laughing stock’ - A Labour MSP.”
http://www.sundaymail.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2008/05/11/prime-minister-orders-labour-leader-wendy-alexander-to-back-off-independence-poll-demand-78057-20413412/
34 - Nah imagine her with green rather than orange hair and she is Grotbags!
So Tory boy in C&N is running against two gals…
Not sure I agree with Mike’s view that 4/11 on the Conservatives in C&N is “value” - but I suppose if they are indeed “90% certain” to win the seat then anything better than 1/10 is value! It does look as if the market correctly saw this one, with the price shrinking from 4/5 when the market opened. However, it does still seem incredible that the Conservatives can really take this seat - but the evidence is clear… Wouldn’t mind a YouGuv poll, though, just to reassure!!!
38 if gordon doesnt sack bendy wendy then he really is toast. the man is now a total laughing stock.
41. Technically anything better than 1/9 is value since that equates to 10%. 1/10 is 9.1%. For those wanting to translate odds into percentages take the first part of the odds and divide by the sum total of both figures. Therefore 1/10 is 1 divided by 11 (1+10). 4/11 would be 4 divided by 15 (4+11) = 26.7%.
42. Can he sack her?
The Sunday Mail’s leader today is very telling. For those that do not know the Daily Record/Sunday Mail are Scottish Labour’s in-house newspapers:
“IT is hard to criticise the logic behind Wendy Alexander’s second U-turn on an independence referendum.
Mainly because, like most voters, we do not understand what she is talking about.
She has gone from being antireferendum to pro-referendum to anti-referendum in a week.
First Minister Alex Salmond has been accused of being smug and self-satisfied.
After Labour’s performance during the last week, he has every right to be.”
‘The Lady Is All For U-Turning’
http://www.sundaymail.co.uk/opinion/we-say/2008/05/11/the-lady-is-all-for-u-turning-78057-20413338/
Does Martin Ivens read this blog? Because two weeks running he has used one of my metaphors. Last week it was Gordon Brown and the Peter Principle:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article3867789.ece
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/12/27/a-double-blow-for-brown-from-the-indy/ (post 31)
This week it is Murder on the Orient Express:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article3908316.ece
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/04/12/could-gordon-be-out-before-the-general-election/ (post 17)
I am very happy to come up with new ideas for Mr Ivens - for a suitable fee.
44. HenryG - “Can he sack her?”
No.
“Senior Labour figures are now privately briefing against Mr Brown and have been checking Labour Party rules for ways a formal challenge to his leadership could be mounted.
A prominent Labour insider said many ambitious MPs, now in their 40s, see the prospect of a Tory General Election victory as signalling the end of possible ministerial careers.
“They look at older Labour MPs, who spent their best years in opposition in the 1980s and 1990s, and don’t fancy finding themselves in the same position,” he explained.
“They think if the Tories get in they could spend the next 10 or 15 years in the wilderness on the Opposition benches. And they see Gordon Brown as the main problem facing the party at the moment.””
‘Brown has six months to prove he is up to job’
http://www.sundaypost.com/news1.htm
42, but even then it would make his “She’s not called for a referendum” PMQs performance look even more ridiculous.
Having been to Crewe twice I would broadly support the ICM Poll, and as I posted yesterday have thought a Cons landslide is more than possible. Personally I think the assessments are the wrong way round and there is a 16% gap now and the General Election figure would be the lower figure. A seat where they were a clear second in 2005, in the present climate, is heaven made for them, this is where the luck comes in, but it has to be taken.
Remember the poll was taken before some of the constituency had received any lierature from the Lib Dems, areas where they have been almost dormant or with no candidates in recent times. Therefore I would put their actual vote up a bit, maybe closer to 20% and Labour’s lower.
As the camplaign develops I would expect the Lib Dems to face a squeeze from the Cons, (presuambly each of the other parties will use these figures in a bar chart), Labour to fall more and the Others group to move well beyond 2%, especially if the BNP are standing.
However these are minor issues compared to a significant and probably large Cons win and the effect it will have on each parties morale. The Lib Dems will do well to maintain an 18% position. Gordon must be worried.
Will 2010 be a 1997 in reverse? Huge gains for the Cons with Lib Dems hanging on in their areas and picking up some gains from Labour. I wiull visit again.
Expect Cons odds to shorter even more.
Better for Labour to lose C&N, if that helps to defenestrate Brown
48 - Labour will not benefit from a change of leaders. It is fanciful of those MP’s who think they can change leaders and profit from the exercise. To change leaders would confirm the party as riven by factions, it would leave a wounded resentful ex-leader on the backbenches. It would confirm the public in their thoughts that Labour care not for the good they can do the country but merely for the enjoyment of office. It would be the difference between certain defeat and certain annihilation.
Former Labour First Minister Henry McLeish is disarmingly honest today. He knows that support for Scottish independence is not down at the much-quoted Daily Telegraph’s “19%”. He will have seen an awful lot of internal Labour Party polling during his time at the top, although I very much doubt he is privy to it nowadays.
“The referendum could provide a win-win situation for the SNP. With a low turnout, they could win. Even with a normal turnout they could lose, but the vote for the Union might not have a significant majority. At best it would be inconclusive.”
And we even have a better idea of when Polling Day for the Scottish independence referendum will be: Autumn 2010, just as the Cameron Government is taking its first tentative steps. Delicious!!
“THE REFERENDUM BILL on independence will be introduced at the Scottish Parliament on Burn’s Day 2010.
If passed, it would mean a referendum some time the following autumn.
A source close to First Minister Alex Salmond said, “We’re looking at the option of introducing the bill on Burn’s Day. That seems a good day to bring forward this important bill.””
http://www.sundaypost.com/news2.htm
45 What is the point of posting a link, and then including most of the article in your post, Stuart?
I think Mike has suggested that we avoid quoting entire newspaper articles but just post the link — using tiny as needed.
However, you boorishy ignore any suggestion as to better etiquette on pb.com.
53 - Isn’t the day you suggest in January, which would be winter and before the general election?
50 dave (s), talking of morale, what effect will a distant third place have on LibDem morale? Will Nick Clegg* take the blame?
*Is it just me, or does Nick Clegg remind anyone of Neil Kinnock?
52. Changing leaders is risky, indeed (think of IDS, Hague, Ming). But it has come to the point that the risk is worth it. It has nothing to do with “factions”, everything to do with the fact the leader is an out-of-touch guy working 20 hour days and digging himself into a hole.
57 - Yes but the outcome will be the same. Labour are in a lose-lose situation with regard to Brown.
55. James Burdett
No: the proposal is that the Referendum Bill be introduced in Parliament on 25 January 2010. But the actual referendum would be held several months thereafter, in the autumn.
If Milliband took over now, he might be able to stop Cameron in his tracks, and at least prevent the Tories from having a working majority at the next election. For that reason alone, lets hope Labour loses at Crewe and Nantwich, and Gordon goes.
57 “everything to do with the fact the leader is an out-of-touch guy working 20 hour days and digging himself into a hole.”
Ermintrude, perhaps Gordon is trying to prise the title away from Kansas?
http://www.peteena.com/HOLE.HTM
59 - I’m not sure how the legislative process of the Scottish Parliament works but wouldn’t the other parties just amend any date for a referendum to have it coincide with the general election?
60, Miliband would be the wrong choice. Straw, Cruddas or Denham would be Labour’s best options.
Balls would be the political equivalent of castrating yourself with a cheese grater.
Well thats that, dont back Labour in C&N.
60 - Wouldn’t it just be easy for the media to then view Clegg/Milliband as the Attack of the Cameron clones?
38 Stuart, you’ve quoted Annabel Goldie a few times over recent days, but how you think this chaos in Scottish Labour is going to affect the standing of the Tories in Scotland? Do they stand to gain, or is it all going to the SNP?
9. ‘Jack W committee’ - is that the big Tory scandal you have been predicting for the last two years or so?
54. Get off his back. He provided snippets plus a bit of his own analysis. Nothing wrong with that. Blimey that amount a rot written in some of the posts about Soviet Dictatorships and European conspiracies and you pick this out? If you don’t like a post SKIP PAST IT. As I will do with yours.
Gynfa, let Stuart have his day. The Wendy Alexander/Gordon Brown contretemps is one of the major stories. It killed off Re-Launch IV as Gordon struggles to deal with the tar pit that is Scots politics while trying to recover from a battering in England and Wales. It has damaged Labour’s relations with the Lib Dems and Conservatives on the Unionist front and highlighted yet again his inability to deal with unplanned political events or to foresee consequences.
He has C&N to face, now likely to be a disastrous loss to the Conservatives, then 42 days, Lord Darzi’s proposals to shut A&E and maternity wards, change GP practices, the French EU presidency with tax and defence on the table, continuing PO closures, Labour funding shortage so a bigger role for unions while trying to keep public sector workers pay down - all against a background of a credit crunch and falling disposable incomes. Then Wendy Alexander brings Scots Independence into the centre stage of UK politics.
Not a lucky PM.
Denham’s seat must be under threat? Cruddas looks good as a leader of the opposition
PoliticsHome has an explanation of their tracker. It’s a balanced internet sample, managed by YouGov, so IMHO has credence. Probably better for trending than absolute numbers.
http://www.politicshome.com/landing.aspx
66. Jimbo - “… how you think this chaos in Scottish Labour is going to affect the standing of the Tories in Scotland? Do they stand to gain, or is it all going to the SNP?”
I think that it is becoming increasingly clear that the Scottish Tories are definitely going to gain from all this chaos. Some of Labour’s vote is fundamental, hard-line Unionist, and it would never go to the SNP, Greens or the Lib Dems in the month of Sundays. Some of Labour’s fall will go straight to the Tories, a little also to the BNP and UKIP.
I recently said (before this amazing week) that I thought the Scottish Tories were around the 19% mark. I now think that they are going to be pushing up to the 24%/25% mark very soon, at the expense of both Labour and the Lib Dems. I now expect the Scottish Tories to finish in 2nd place at next years Euros, pushing Labour into 3rd.
O/T
The most beautiful hindou song; the graphics oare terrible, don’t watch ‘em; but the music is divine: http://youtube.com/watch?v=8r23T3UzECM
61. Yes, something like this Kansas hole.
56. I agree that Cleggo blethers and blusters a bit like Kinnock
I hesitate to get involved with the Scottish question, but there is one thing I don’t understand.
Presumably the SNP does not intend to declare UDI, but to expect the Westminster Parliament to carry a Bill dissolving the 1707 Union. So where does this leave Northern Ireland? Its cultural links are far more with Scotland than with England.
Let’s play just suppose. The UK Parliament carries a Disunion Bill, in accordance with Scottish wishes, but it includes a clause requiring a referendum in Northern Ireland to decide where the Six Counties want to go: England/Wales, Scotland or the Irish Republic. After all, such a clause would suit England nicely, and as this is a Union matter, English opinion also counts. The Unionists there advise their community to vote for Scotland, both for cultural reasons and to protect their EU money from little Englanders.
The SNP then calls a further referendum in which the Scots reject the Northern Irish. Why wouldn’t they?
Chaos.
Doubtless someone will explain to me why this won’t happen.
‘Salmond Names The Day’
“The First Minister will launch his Referendum (Scotland) Bill on Burns Day 2010.”
http://www.scottishsundayexpress.co.uk./posts/view/44076/SALMOND-NAMES-THE-DAY
The Mail on Sunday - which has previously in editorial terms been influenced by Dacre’s friendship with Brown, often meaning the MoS & DM have been a bit schizophrenic with their stories being damning and their editorials supportive, has decided Brown is finished.
http://tinyurl.com/52wrzk
In spite of all the gloom about the leadership, if the economy picks up then Gordon could be in with a chance. 90% of voters’ worries are about the economy at the moment.
Plus the fact that the Cons are weak because of their continued lack of policies. Their latest wheeze is apparently a slow policy “striptease” - which doesn’t show much respect for the electorate, in my opinion.
Whats the likely turnout at C&N?? at the GE it was 60%
79 - I would have thought somewhere around 45% was likely.
Here’s another example of why the voters are turning en masse from New Labour - the worst kind of authoritarian lunacy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/1944753/No-MMR-jab%2C-no-school-under-Labour-plans.html
48 - They could defect before it’s too late…
Oh dear. This is desperate stuff.
72 - I suspect 24/25% is a bit on the high side although I’d be delighted to be proven wrong.
My own feeling at the moment is we’ll poll around 20% and gain 3 or 4 seats. Any more than that and I’d be very surprised.
On topic - I mentioned this on another thread but it’s worth noting that ICM got it relatively close in the Ayr byelection. IIRC they had figures of 36% Con and 27% SNP. The actual result was something like 39% Con and 29% SNP.
Levy on the Marr show, guilty as charged m’lord
Levy says Brown knew about the loans. Brown is toast. knifed like a rascal.
Any of the crazier Tory spinners on here looking to put their money where their mouths are? I’m looking to build a long position in LibDem seats around the mid 40’s area - I’ll put the bids on spreadfair if anyone has interest.
I can do a decent amount - looking to get up to around 2k or so.
78. That’s what a lot of Tories thought or hoped circa 1995. In any case, we’re at the wrong point in the economic cycle. In 1992-7, Britain’s economy picked up a year or so into the parliament (admittedly due to an event very much against government policy), and four years later things were feeling better for much of the country. This time, the economy’s still slowing down more than three years in. There simply isn’t time for it to pick up and for a feel-good factor - which always lags the cycle - to kick in.
The ICM gives a swing from the GE of 10%.This is hardly a sensational swing for a bye-election.The Lib dems have regularly achieved swings of 20% plus.On this occasion The Lib Dems are too far behind in third with following the locals a very strong tory tide running.
rogerh
86 How many knives are sticking in Brown now
Did Brown say he parliament he did not know about them
Hard to know where to start in dismantling GB
86
Didnt Brown say last week in reply to a question in the House of Commons “I knew nothing about those loans”
What are Labour going to do? Theres no evidence Milliband would be any more popular with the public than Brown and how can Labour change leaders in less than a year after putting in the current leader unopposed? They will surely lose all credability? Moreover, they can’t really install a “safe pair of hands” like Jack Straw adter installing Brown as leader, but they can’t afford a long, divisive leadership contest, either (the time for that was last year)
But on the other hand I can’t see how much longer they can carry like this with Brown. Despite the valiant attempts by Nick P on here to present everything as being fine and dandy in the Parliamentery Labour Party, you just know that under the surface, there has to be much panic and desperation, particularly with MP’s in marginal seats.
Labour are in a bloody mess, and I honestly don’t see an option that could work?
Is this the worst weekend for Brown since well last weekend?
90 the bottom line is that brown is a nasty liar that is unfit for office, what the labour party does about it is up to them. I look forward to his humiliating demise
56: Nick Clegg=Neil Kinnock? Yes, Marquee Mark, it’s just you!
Leaving aside the reservations we all have about by-election polls, this gives the Tories a 12% lead among those who say they know how they’ll vote, balanced by 16% who say they voted Labour last time and now aren’t sure. Sounds plausible.
However, the ’spiral of silence’ adjustment hasn’t just been invented - it’s there because it reflects normal behaviour: about half the people who aren’t sure drag themselves along on the day. That might be less true at by-elections - I’m not sure we have enough past polling data on that point to know. I agree the Tories are favourites but 11 days out it may be a bit early to be betting the farm on it.
92
Is it beyond the realms of possibility for Gordo to call a General election. It might be the least worst option? Carrying on to 2010 will just make people despise Labour even more than they do now, if that’s possible?
I don’t really understand this idea that Jack Straw is a safe pair of hands. Hasn’t he made a mess of the departments he’s presided over?
Just a thought. Gwyneth Dunwoody represented Crewe, later Crewe and Nantwich, for 34 straight years from 1974.
Any Tory voter old enough to have voted in the 1974 election is now at least 52 years old.
For the first time in their lives, many Conservatives can go to the polls on Thursday week knowing that their vote can actually mean something.
That should boost turnout.
33/36 test/Robin. Did you accidently
miss this part of the report !! …. Nice work if you can get it !!
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/1105_brussels_exposed_2.shtml
………………………..
67. Arrrhhhh I see my puppy Harry is back. Sorry everybody but he’s still prone to leaving little ‘accidents’ all over the site.
[99] Train your puppy, Jack - rub his dear little nose in it
On the daily mail website, it says the people telephoned were from ‘Crewe’. I’m a bit of a pollster amateur but does this mean they only took it from the town of Crewe or the whole area?
95 - Nick, if you are still there…what’s your view of the Tory-toff strategy apparently being pursued by Labour in C&N? Eyes towards ceiling in disbelief is my hope.
50 - Lib Dem “lierature” - freudian slip perhaps?
Re: this poll, and the general scepticism of by-elction polls, are we witnessing the evolution of Smithson’s 3rd law - “the worse a poll is for Labour the more likely it is to be genuine”?
103
That law only holds true when Gordon is Prime Minister
83. The whole list is grotesque, looks like a BNP leaflet - or a parody of one.
99 Most Conservative members would be happy to see a “refresh” of MEPs, and the expenses stuff revealed a while back could have helped but unfortunately many have been re-selected through a process imposed from the centre. Cameron though has ordered them to publish expenses on same basis as MPs so there should be less of this in the future.
100 IA. I don’t like too. He’s such a bundle of mischievous joy. However …. I have just purchased a Korean cookery book !!
92. I think your second paragraph is answered by your first and third. There must be if not ‘panic and desperation’, then certainly deep concern, at how Gordon’s leadership is turning out - but what’s the alternative?
Labour could roll the dice and hope that Straw / Miliband / whoever turns out to be ok, but since 2000, each party has managed to (s)elect a leader who has proven utterly useless at the job. There is no guarentee that Brown’s replacement would be any better.
There is also the fact that over 300 Labour MP’s nominated Brown in the leadership election. What does it say about their judgement if they’re looking to get rid of him less than a year into his term of office?
106 Ted “Refresh”
The Indy on Sunday takes a peek at the C&N by election :
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/crewe-voters-set-to-derail-labours-fightback-825423.html
Jack W I did indeed miss it - apologies, I only saw the page about Roger Helmer’s, um, “blow-out meal” of scallops and red wine (look out, he’ll be lording it with the King Prawns next if he’s not stopped).
As to the statements about the other MEPs it is my policy not to criticise anybody who holds the Conservative whip in public. So no more about that here.
98. Not entirely true. The seat’s been safe for Labour since 1997, but in the eighties it was extremely marginal and although Labour eventually prevailed, the Conservatives had every reason to think that their vote could be for the winning candidate.
I must admit though, I do find the by-election poll strange. I really cannot see Labour doing better than their national standing. By-elections are an ideal opportunity to kick the unpopular party without it mattering much. There’s virtually no incentive for doubtful Labour voters to turn out and plenty of good ones not to - first among which is to send a message to the government to get its act together.
The only thing I’m a bit annoyed about now is having laid Labour rather than having backed the Conservatives.
96. I guess there is an arguement for Labour to call an election and put an end to their misery, but that goes against almost every survival instinct that a politician has. And as for Brown doing it - No way. The guys hates, absolutely heates, democracy. As we’ve seen on several occasions over the years.
If Labour do install a new leader though, then I think the demand for an election would be deafening and in short time I think they would have to go to the public.
108. Exactly. If Labour ditch Brown they lose all credability. They are dambed if they do and dambed if they don’t.
92. The best thing Labour could do now might actually be to hold a general election.
112. I think the differance is that in this by election people are voting for Dunwoody, where-as in a general election, Gordon Brown becomes central to peoples decisions.
111 Test. “…. holds the Conservative whip in public.”
Hey hey tell all ….. More tales for the News of the Screws !!
112: The 1997 boundary changes made it a lot more secure for Labour.
108 - a little unfair on Howard, who at least managed to stabilise the Tories, even if he was never going to be a pallatable Prime Minister to many voters, and also on Cameron who has managed to turn them into a viable government-in-waiting. I’m willing to bet that, had David Davis been elected Tory leader, Kennedy would still be LibDem leader and Labour would still have a lead in the polls. It’s entirely possible that Blair would still be PM (or preparing the “orderly transition” ahead of a spring 09 General Election)
113 When Labour recovered to the dizzy heights of 34-35% earlier this year the more excitable spinners in the Government started talking about a spring 2009 election. Let’s hope that Re-Launch XVII (probably around Labour conference) does show some improvement so Gordon is tempted to go to the country next year, hoping to take advantage of a brief burst of less unpopularity. IMHO the “Time for a Change” sentiment is and will be too strong for Labour to win an election, whether it will remain strong enough for an overall Tory majority is still in the balance but I’m coming round to think it will be.
“Vote Labour for 5 More Years of Gordon” isn’t ever going to be a winner.
117 - the 1997 RESULT also made it a lot more secure for Labour
Re. 115. In other words this poll tells us that in this by election, more people are prepared to turn out for the Dunwoody name (so in that respect putting in a second generation Dunwoody has worked) than would be prepared to turn out at a general election for Gordon Brown. Just goes to show what a vote loser and turn off Brown is. How on earth they would get through a 3-4 weeks general election campaign with him, Hatty, Darling and Balls center stage every day, I just don’t know.
119: The best solution for Labour is probably to ditch Gordon before the summer, spend the recess period being populist, and hold an election in the autumn. They won’t win but they could lose well enough to be the largest party in a hung parliament.
120: But they would probably have lost it in 2005.
119. Personally I hope he holds on until 2010, and we get one last local election bloody bath next year. Think of all those Labour councillors and county councillors that were elected in 2005 off the back of Labours general election victory, just waiting to be dispatched.
119. “Vote Labour for 5 More Years of Gordon” isn’t ever going to be a winner.
I think you’ve just hit the nail on the head there Ted. That’s why Brown has to go - not because he can’t struggle along until the next election (he may even improve) but because so few will want him to have him for at least another 4 years on top of that. And since he’s Labour’s leader that would spell disaster for us.
If the Tories do win Crewe then at least I’ll be able to cash in the 10-1 bet I placed last year on Labour losing a by-election;-)
Who is running the Crewe campaign for Labour? They seem to be reaching new depths. Apparantly ‘Tamsin says: “Get The Yobs”‘ and wants “the police to harass yobs, and get in their faces.” She says: “There’s a lot of talk about human rights, for me the most important human right is to feel safe in your own home.”
123 - I asked this yesterday without reply, but what are the early estimates of the possible scale of Labour losses next year?
125. “There’s a lot of talk about human rights, for me the most important human right is to feel safe in your own home.”
I agree with that.
123
The only thing that dissuades me that Gordon would call a sudden GE is that Labour are skint. They have not the money or the grassroots to be successful. On reflection I think it will be 2010 and likely to result in oblivion. Apart from the coming economic woes that are are only just biting hard, voters don’t like Prime Ministers who hold on the the last possible moment.
118. I wasn’t thinking of Howard or Cameron, both of whom did or are doing a good job for the Conservatives in the circumstances; it was the man who lead the party into the mess that Howard had to clear up I was nominating for the Conservatives: IDS. Ming and Brown make up the three.
128. If Brown is in post I think he’ll favour Autumn 09.
The ‘New York Times’ looks at the emerging general election strategies of McCain and Obama :
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/11/us/politics/11strategy.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
84. Max - “My own feeling at the moment is we’ll poll around 20% and gain 3 or 4 seats. Any more than that and I’d be very surprised.”
I think that as an active Scottish Conservative, you are in a far better position to guage this than I am. So I defer to your judgement.
If you are correct, then it would be unlikely that the Scottish Tories can grab 2nd place at next year’s Euros, but I think it’ll be tight between Labour and the Tories for 2nd spot, with both polling in the mid 20’s (the higher relative Tory performance at Euros being due to traditionally far lower turnout).
126. I don’t know. If he’s around, Sean Fear would be the person to ask.
128. Brown has a long history of denying people a say. From his bullying and plotting and schemeing to precent anyone standing against him for the leadership, to the bottled election, to the way he’s stiched up the country over the Lisbon Treaty, to his split with bendy wendy over giving the Scots a referendum, Brown is constantly running scared of democracy. If he doesn’t fall, he won’t call a general election until May/June 2010, when he is forced to. It’ll be another why, when people finally do get a say, they will relish the opportunity to send the gutless coward packing.
118 I think he was referring to IDS. FWIW, I think if Howard were leader presently, (or Davis for that matter) the Conservatives would still be in the lead.
70 Cruddas is more vulnerable than Denham.
123 Next year’s locals will be awful for Labour (assuming they’re still in power by then). I cannot see them retaining a single County Council.
126 - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/locals/html/region_99999.stm
As it shows, Labour have(had) 612 councillors, elected in a GE year, on GE turnout. Next year’s change is anybody’s guess - obviously they’ll lose the now defunct Cheshire, Durham, Northumberland (104) - as will the other parties. Beyond that… maybe losses in Lancashire, given the local results in places like Blackpool, Lancs West, Sth Ribble etc. in recent years, possibly a few in Derbyshire, Notts, Staffs and a few others. It wouldn’t shock me if they lost another 300+ seats next year (especially given the 104 I mentioned above), but that’s just a guess on my part
126 I think they’ll be defending about 450 County Council seats (and I think some Unitary authorities will also be holding elections). Given they were almost all elected in 2005, I’d expect Labour to lose half of them.
9
Wowee, is that the best you can find?
At least it has some factual base and not the usual fantasy stuff.
9
Wowee, is that the best you can find?
At least it has some factual base and not the usual fantasy stuff.
135 Presumably, Northumberland, Durham, and the two Cheshire unitaries won’t be having elections next year, so I’ve excluded them from the total.
139
I assume those numbers exclude defections
133 I have none of the personal animosity towards Brown that some people have. I actually disliked Blair far more.
O/T - Anyone seen Paddick’s hilarious diary in the MoS.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/femail/article.html?in_article_id=565425&in_page_id=1879
75 The status of Northern Ireland was not governed by the 1707 Act of Union - Ireland joined the Union later and then partially left. So the constitutional lawyers will have some work to do to sort them out. But a referendum on NIs future would have to be left in the hands of the NI people if it is to have any credibility, and the likely options would be 1) remain in mini-UK 2)gain independence 3)join a United Ireland.
But on this same topic, what would the UK be known as following Scotland’s independence - UK Lite? Little Britain?? Greater England??
123/126. If you think Labour’s performance at next year’s locals will be bad (and it will - the drop in turnout, and hence differential turnouts between the parties) would account for a fair sized movement of seats, even before the swing in the polls is considered, wait till the Euro-elections in June.
The Euro-elections are lining up to be a perfect storm for Labour. It would be difficult to design an election better if the aim was to put the boot in. Briefly:
- The results don’t really matter. No-one cares who their MEP’s are or what the make-up of the EP is, so people feel free to vote on popularity.
- Results dont really matter, so wavering or doubtful Labour voters have little reason to turn out as nothing’s at stake.
- PR means votes for minor parties count, or are more likely to.
- PR means that everyone has the chance to vote for a much wider range of minor parties, which are not usually available at general / local elections.
- UKIP will poll reasonably, as it’s the one time they’re relevant.
- Labour’s policy on European matters is not popular and the u-turn on the referendum will hit hard (and this will be the only time when voters can protest about it).
- Since 1989, voters have got into the habit of using Euro-elections to release steam by kicking the government.
- It will be the last chance to ’send a message’ to the Labour government before a General Election.
- The economy is unlikely to have fully recovered from the slowdown.
It is entirely possible that Labour could poll as low as 18% in the Euros, with the Conservatives somewhere around double that.
139 According to vote 2007, Labour have now lost control of Durham Unitary Authority. They suspended five councillors from Easington, because the local Labour party had the temerity not to ensure that half its candidates were women.
Talk about shooting yourself in the foot. This is the first time Labour has lost Durham in 88 years.
142 - Is that a spoof?
143. Penddu - “… would the UK be known as following Scotland’s independence - UK Lite? Little Britain?? Greater England?”
Last week I suggested:
- Kingdom of England, West Anglia and the Wee Daft Poor Bit of Ireland
Another wit said that, as it would be Eng, Wal & NI left, he had heard ‘Ewanistan’ being proposed
145 astonishing Sean.
If the polls are to believed then remarkably good odds at 4/11.
I will take the plunge if my wagers on Chelsea to win the Premiership pay off later this afternoon.
I am thoroughly ashamed of myself as a born and bred Arsenal fan backing Chelsea and am off to seek absolution.
91 “Didnt Brown say last week in reply to a question in the House of Commons “I knew nothing about those loans”
He did indeed, followed by audible intakes of breath within the House.
For those seemingly intent on backing Ms Dunwoody to win C&N - take care, in my experience Mike is never wrong when he’s this sure of an outcome. That’s not of course to say there isn’t some money to be made in backing and laying or the reverse over the next 11 days.
According to the Scotsman website Wendy Alexander has quit.
http://www.scotsman.com/politics/COMMENT-Shock-resignation-that-surprises.2323745.jp
151 - Nothing on the bbc site. yet…
151 - ignore that - I just realised someone is playing a joke and I fell for it.
sean, link please to the Durham thread?
151 - lol
141. But say what you want, nobody co