Has ICM completely ruined Nick’s first by election?
May 12th, 2008
crewe.tv
Does pre-election polling help squeeze out the third party?
The main reason why I have been so confident in my Crewe and Nantwich predictions is the impact that yesterday’s ICM by election poll will have on voting dynamics, particularly in taking the wind out of the Lib Dems’ standard strategy.
For with the huge Tory poll surge the only real threat to Cameron was if the Lib Dems could establish themselves as a challenger to Labour thus splitting the anti-Brown vote. The LDs are always able to summon a massive activist army and they have the expertise in literature production to produce the right message at the right time.
Just look back to the start of the campaign when I published their first C&N bar chart which was shrewdly, if somewhat misleadingly, designed to show that they were the best-placed challengers.
Their problem now is that anything they say has been pre-empted by the ICM poll which had them on 16% behind Labour’s 39% and the Conservative 43%. The message from this is that it is a battle between Labour and the Tories knocking for six the argument that the best way of giving Labour a kicking is by voting Lib Dem.
This is similar, in many ways, to the Mayoral battle in London - the polls showed it was a struggle between Ken and Boris and the third party candidate just got squeezed out. If there had been no polls at all my guess is that the Brian Paddick would have done better and the overall result might have been tighter.
By elections polls have become something of a novelty. The only two we have had in recent times were in Hartlepool in September 2004 and in Blaenau Gwent last year in 2006. The former had Labour 33% ahead of the Lib Dems making the third party’s task that much more challenging. The latter had Labour 12% ahead but on the day Labour came in 9% behind in its attempt to win back the seat from an independent.
Latest Crewe and Nantwich betting.
Mike Smithson
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This is an excellent post, Mike which I’m sure Tory strategists will take note of. It could have wider ramifications, too.
LD succcess at parliamentary by electiokns is a major part of their overall strategy
poll in by elections, release results, deny them victory = weaken them nationally
I like it!
equally I’d hope the local Tories will use the icm poll in their next leaflet.
“I published their first C&N bar chart which was shrewdly, if somewhat misleadingly, designed to show that they were the best-placed challengers.”
At last - a LibDem actually admits that his party’s bar charts can be misleading
3. The Conservatives have woken up to bar charts finally too:
http://www.creweandnantwichconservatives.com/getfile.php?selectid=101&type=local
And this one stacks up a bit better statistically also!
Mike - thanks, good article as ever.
How much does a 1000 person by-election poll cost, I wonder?
Will we see it become the first salvo of a by-election - a reputable national firm doing a proper-sized poll, that either stops the Lib Dems dead in their tracks (like this one), or shows them best-placed to beat the other big party (eg Dunfermline).
It would at least get us away from the dodgy bar-charts that kick off most campaign literature.
I notice that at least three times in the last few days you have written “By elections polls have become something of a novelty. The only two we have had in recent times were in Hartlepool in September 2004 and in Gwent last year. “
Do you mean Blaenau Gwent, in 2006? Or something else in the local elections?
For with the huge Tory poll surge the only real threat to Cameron was if the Lib Dems could establish themselves as a challenger to Labour thus splitting the anti-Brown vote.
If the voters realise from the opinion poll that Labour is going to lose and is comfortably begind the Conservative Party, then it could act as an impetus for a further slice of former Labour voters to swing from Labour to Lib Dem, thereby pushing Lib Dem up into second place, and Labour down into 4th place behind the OMRLP. (i.e. the sort of people who are fed up and want to kick Labour, but can’t bring themselves to vote Conservative).
If the two main opposition parties are evenly split, then the threshold for Labour is 32%, below which Labour would come third rather than first. (Remember Brecon & Radnor, Littleborough & Saddleworth, etc.).
HOw about a review of the 3 candidates websites?
The Labour one is particularly negative… sounds a bit like a desperate core-vote/scare effort to me. It’s even got pictures of “Tory Boy’s million pound mansion” - they really are scraping the bottom of the barrel, aren’t they?
Care to comment Nick Palmer?
We may campaign on the personal link between Brown and his 10p tax rate cut (ie his record), but we don’t campaign on his house and him not being “one of us”. What exactly is “one of us” in Crewe and Nantwich? What if the BNP campaigned against an ethnic minority candidate as not “one of us” - would that also be acceptable?
http://www.creweandnantwichconservatives.com/
http://www.tamsindunwoody.com/
http://www.elizabethshenton.com/
The link gives odds on Lib Dem winning as 25/1. I would jump at that eagerly if I were a betting person. They should have Con 25/1 and LD 7/2 instead of the other way round.
7 JohnLoony - I don’t think the “wisdom of crowds” extends that far in by-elections. They simply can’t judge when a party is defeated and then which ones should safely switch to a third party in order to force Labour into 3rd place.
But if LibDems can’t win by-elections - then what role do they serve? In the past thirty years they have represented the tool of choice wielded by the electorate against both parties - “if you don’t govern/oppose well enough, we shall take your seats and give them to the LibDems. Not enough to interfere with the running of government mind you - we’re not that daft - but by way of an embarrassment that could perhaps cause real pain and topple leaders.”
But now their bar charts smell cheesy, their every-home-should-have-one yellow diamonds as out-moded as the video recorder. And why? Because they have lost any credibility that they would hammer Labour. It’s what the people want - what they demand - against Gordon’s shower of shite. But the LibDems just loll against this wretched Government for support, like the invertebrates they are, meekly siding with them on abandoning the Treaty referendum pledge.
So this was the party of high principles, eh, the one that opposed the Iraq war? Sorry, but no. There is a new toy for the electorate to play with these days, one that will deliver the required Government-kicking. David Cameron is now the must-have High-Def 38″ flat-screen DVD digital-compatible package. People can see him do the business of of hunting down this Government like they were there with him. And it feels good.
The LibDems? They have been put away, under the stairs. Just waiting for that next car-boot sale.
“It’s even got pictures of “Tory Boy’s million pound mansion” - they really are scraping the bottom of the barrel, aren’t they?”
In the words of Sybil Fawlty “It’s pathetic.”
BTW, Many thanks for that excellent article about Russia, yesterday.
10. Perhaps not - it would be fun if they did though
O/T local elections
Anyone else aware of this ruling?
Extract from BBC website
Five Labour councillors, including the former leader of Durham County Council, have been suspended from the party.
Former miner Albert Nugent was one of those caught up in the dispute over failing to have enough women candidates.
He was suspended on Friday and a new leader Simon Henig was voted in at a meeting at County Hall on Saturday.
Easington councillors Robert Crute, Audrey Laing, Alan Napier and Alice Naylor were also suspended.
However, the suspensions relate to the five’s membership of the Labour party and they will remain as councillors.
Mr Nugent said he felt like he had been “stitched up”.
The five were suspended by the Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) after it ordered that all areas should have a 50-50 split of male and female candidates for the local elections.
The LibDems should just commission some private polls from Ave It which they can use to show them level pegging in second place with Labour on 0%. The bar chart might require some imagination though.
14 Yes, we discussed it yesterday. An intelligent political party would be attempting to bury the hatchet with its activists, after a drubbing in the local elections, rather than driving them into opposition, and losing control of a council they’ve held since 1919. But Labour now seem to have a deathwish.
12 - I like this comment:
“Local residents are asking why it has taken a by-election for them to see Tory candidate Edward Timpson.
What has he done in the past 12 months since he first came on the scene. He has not stood up to his Tory mates running the council who’ve failed to stamp out anti-social behaviour and failed to enforce alcohol free zones. “
Because May 1 showed just how hacked off the voters were with the local council…
Bitter experience has taught me never to underestimate the LibDems, not least in a parliamentary by-election. They will have the same solid literature and army of activists that they have always been able to call upon during a by-election and critically their polling day operation is likely to be a very professional affair.
That said, the LibDems have very little base at all in this part of the world and this is something which seems to be, both reflected in the attitudes of voters in Crewe and Nantwich with a widespread perception of this as a contest between the Conservatives and Labour and reinforced by the considerable Conservative effort in the seat… it will be very tough for the LibDems to challenge that impression in such a short campaign and in a seat where (unlike Leicester South, Hartlepool, Birmingham Hodge Hill etc…) the party is very much a bit-part-player.
17 They weren’t able to find any local residents to back up that assertion, it would seem. Labour’s campaign is comically inept.
I’ve just read Gabble’s incoherent defence of ID cards last night. Apparently there’s no difference between passports and ID cards except the name, but we can’t just use passports because some people don’t want to have one. Whereas ID cards……
A few points.
Firstly political inhabitants of sites like this panic abour bar charts; do the public?
Secondly the Tories are very bad at by-elections and thirdly the Libdems are very good.
And fourhtly, the ICM poll showed a great swathe of undecided Lab voters; if they swung to the LibDems rather than to Lab what would the polling shares be then?
If the Tories don’t have a leaflet ready for this morning with this poll on then they’re bonkers.
As I’ve said before, the real problem for the Lib Dem by-election machine is time. There simply isn’t any.
It takes time to mount a campaign and draft in the teams of often PAID workers the Lib Dems use to outpunch their weight in these circumstances.
Time to undo the momentum the Tories had, with or without the poll.
“And fourhtly, the ICM poll showed a great swathe of undecided Lab voters; if they swung to the LibDems rather than to Lab what would the polling shares be then?”
Possibly along the lines of Con c.40%, and the other two on c.25% each.
20 The Telegraph has an article on ID cards today - thrust is that they have been reduced to a population register shorn of most of the claimed security advantages. Government has realised that 70 passport offices couldn’t handle the volume so is looking to private companies (even New Labour’s favourite Supermarkets) to do the processing and issuance. Looks like an expensive fudge.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/05/12/do1202.xml
The LD by election “machine” is going to be damaged by C&N. Old Hack is right they do not have enough time but they compounded that by changing their candidate which diluted their message and shed activists who have stayed at home.
The LD blogs have far fewer references to working in C&N than other by elections.
Ealing Southall was the first by election for 20+ years that the LDs had failed to win a previously Govt held seat when the LD started out 2nd. C&N could be the by election where the LDs get badly squeezed out and recognise that they are wasting their time fighting Conservatives if the Conservatives are defending or in 2nd place.
So to sum up Mikes post: “Truth damages Lib Dems shock”
did anyone just hear the frank field interview on radio 4? utterly shocking and the end of brown without question.
That Labour Party website is utterly desperate. If that’s there electoral plan for the general then they are utter toast.
27. Is he going to bring down the government then?
27 - No, but how so?
The Lib Dems have nothing to offer voters as Clegg has completely failed to set out a vision or priority list for the party.
People accuse the Conservatives of being light on policy, but what about the Lib Dems?!
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
22.. I’m assuming you are an activist from another party - the number of people who are paid in LD by-election campaigns can be counted on your fingers.
29 he basically slated brown for 10 minutes and threatened to bring the govt down if he didnt deliver on the 10p tax fiasco. this was followed by an interview with alan johnson who sounded so angry and upset about the labour situation that he was close to tears.
it really does seem that labour are imploding
7.By elections have helped the Lib dems with a temporary blip in the polls but the polls momentum they produced has never been sustained.
C&N has always looked a two horse race, and I wwould expect final Tory share to be near 50%.This would still however be only a 17% swing,far below that achieved by many Lib dem victories.
Where however Lib Dems are in a strong second place particularly in a labour seat then I would bet money on a Lib dem by eelction victory.
rogerh
30 the LibDems are drowning in policy. We have too much rather than too little.
Oh well done North-East Regional Office, really, well done. Not content with losing more seats than necessary in Northumberland by trying to claim everything was a new selection despite it being almost exactly the opposite, you’ve now just lost both your majority on Durham, and both your former leaders with experience of running the show. Geniuses all.
Was at C & N yesterday. Lots of volunteers at Lib Dem HQ and seemed to be efficiently used - Not too much hanging about, but people out leafleting. The number of leaflets delivered very impressive.
In Nantwich and an estate to the East of Crewe. Nantwich quite well populated by Tory posters - Some similar sized Lib Dem postewrs but the few Labour posters small in windows rather than on stakes - yes I will still vote Labour but not too proud of them.
The problem for the Lib Dems that they were clearly behind the Tories and the important thing at the moment is to join in the assassination of Brown. It felt to me that the bet is on Labour coming third. It may not be possible to bet on this directly but to consider the consequences and bet accordingly.
That picture of Cleggover and the LD candidate gazing into each other’s eyes is crying out for a caption competition.
How about: “Get yer coat, you’re number 31″
8. I am puzzled by the complete absence of images of Tamsin with the great celestial helmsman Mr Brown. Was the Lab site a spoof?
On ID cards, I wonder how the likes of Gabble, Nick P and others would have reacted had Margaret Thatcher tried to set an National ID card and database. I am concerned by their silence. However, the notion that an audit trail is compatible with freedom of movement is hard to understand.
Would the Left have tolerated BOSS having such a scheme in Botha’s South Africa? I would have been surprised if the Stasi hadn’t wanted such a comprehensive database system. Although if there is a hint, or clear evidence that ID cards are linked to a hidden EU directive I cannot imagine the howls of protest which will hit this site and others.
To answer the thread question, I’d say the ICM was significant. Other factors that have sunk the Lib Dems this time :
1. Very short campaigning time.
2. Quickly established media narrative that highlighted Tories as single challenger.
3. Conservative momentum from the local elections.
4. Conservatives unusually quick of the mark in this by election.
5. Lib Dem clumsy handling of change of candidate.
37. Happy Blonde in Clegg Over Sensation.
32. Pretty much. He made it clear that unless the entire thing was sorted then the government was going to go phut pretty sharpish. I think with tory and lib dem support they could win, unless Clegg decides the debate is really about something else and decides to abstain.
I said it before they sacked him (and got shouted down for it) but Kennedy was worth an extra five points to the Lib Dems.
They haven’t found those all important five percentage points with Clegg.
They will lose at least twenty seats at the next election as a result.
********Caption competition**********
“Clegg looks at the two major reasons that the candidate was changed.”
“Do you want to be number 31″
Caption Competition -
Boris Johnson’s Transvestite lookalike finds latte Liberal full of froth !!
Caption Competition -
That’s not my tie you’re pulling deary !!
Caption Competition -
My names is Marcus Wood …. I’m a lady .. I do ladies things.
jack w is perceptive with his point 5.
Btw, with all the talk of Paddick slating the LibDens, never standing again etc, I note from crewe blog’s pictures that he was there campaigns g with Shentin and Simon Hughes on Saturday
sorry for phone typing, too fiddly to correct
42 Much as I would like to see that come to pass their overall losses are unlikely to be that great, as Labour will be falling further in Lab/Lib Dem marginals
“Tory defector Fabricant welcomed to Lib Dem fold by leader”
(that hair looked very familiar…)
29 just to add that field actually said he would be ’surprised if gordon brown lead labour into the next election’
In Crewe and Nantwhich the Lib Dem candidate comes last.
“Yes, you could earn a place in the LD shadow cabinet. But its only a offer I make over breakfast….”
42.”I said it before they sacked him (and got shouted down for it) but Kennedy was worth an extra five points to the Lib Dems.”
Absolutely spot on.
The Frank Field story is now on BBC website
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7395545.stm
54 is there a audio link anywhere i cant find one on the today prog
54 - we’re in very strange, almost surreal, territory here… If C&N is lost by the Labour party, and the rebels inflict a defeat over the 10p issue, surely Brown is finished.
But it’s a question of which of his personality flaws prevail: does his cowardice mean he goes without a fight, rather than face down his enemies within the party from a position of weakness? Or will his rage and amour propre drive him to a position where he calls an early GE?
42. Marcus Wood. For once in my life I tend to (partially) agree with you. I said at the time that getting rid of Kennedy - especially at that juncture - was a shortsighted political move by the Lib Dems.
I think that what was crucial about getting rid of Kennedy was the timing. The balance between the Lib Dems and the Tories as opposition to Labour changed at that point. Late 2005 gave the perception that the Tories were actually getting their act together just as the Lib Dems were imploding. The Lib Dems did not need to do that at that point, and if they had held firm the Tory revival would have been far more patchy in my opinion. I am not sure that this was so much a testament to Kennedy’s popularity, as testament to the fact that people do not like parties when they seem to be in disarray. The fact that the Lib Dems replaced Kennedy with Campbell, a man who outwardly had no advantages over him, would lead to a perception such as yours.
However, I think Clegg has done a better job than you want to give him credit for - at least in stopping the sense of freefall in the party that characterised the Campbell ‘inter-regnum’. And I think that their vote remains more resilient than the Tories would want it to be in Lib Dem held seats. The local elections saw an interesting pattern of the Tories gaining off the Lib Dems where they were weak, but not making huge inroads, or even going backwards, in areas where they hold parliamentary seats. I think that the Lib Dems, who were in danger of meltdown last year, will do alright at the next election, and probably actually gain a few seats at Labour’s expense without losing too many, if any to the Tories.
OT It’s been a bad morning so far on BBC Radio 5 Live for useless, beleaguered Gordon Brown. We heard all about his “frequent sulks”, “monumental rages”, and “jangling the keys of No 10 at the Blair’s since 1995″ from a variety of souces inc Prescott, Byers, and Frank Field.
Interviewed by Nicky Campbell, Alan Johnson damned Brown with (very) faint praise and described him as “not exactly a little ray of sunshine” (cue giggles from Campbell and others)
When confronted with Byers claim that rather than make “the long-term decisions for the good of the country” Brown, in fact, “manipulated the tax system for short term gain”, Johnson tried to shrug it off, and basically implied that that was “just how Gordon is”.
The political issue of the moment, even on the BBC, seems to be Brown himself and whether such a flawed personality is fit to be Prime Minister.
One thing’s for sure. If Brown listened to that interview with Johnson he would have flown into one of his monumental rages and will now be in the middle of one of his infamous sulks. Such is the PM we have been saddled with.
54. “Mr Brown is unveiling a round of eye-catching schemes, including one to reform social care for Britain’s ageing population, in a bid to turn his fortunes around.”
Gosh BBC journalese at its most arch. Doesn’t say much about what Field said on Any Answers or that interview earlier on today.
Is this another relaunch? It will have the voters running back for more in Crewe and Nantwich.
4 - re. barcharts. That Conservative one is absolutely not more sound than the LD one that Mike refers to. Admittedly the measure the LDs used (change in vote share) isn’t the most relevant (to be polite), but at least it is accurate. The Tory one commits the cardinal sin of not being to scale. The Labour share of 19% is around two thirds of the LD share (29%), yet the bar is less than half the height! This is the misleading use of statistics at its very worst, and something even the LDs seem to have stamped out in recent years.
Mike, why are the LibDems so formidable in by elections? You mentioned their massive activist army and their expertise in literature productions. I don’t see why the other parties can’t match this. Their activist base is larger and the Tory’s was particularly effective in London during the mayoral elections. Also, with the marketing and PR expertise available now, surely the Labour and Tory parties can match the LibDems when it comes to publicising their respective messages effectively. Is shoving literature through the letter-box very effective, nowadays, anyhow?
54.”Mr Brown is unveiling a round of eye-catching schemes, including one to reform social care for Britain’s ageing population, in a bid to turn his fortunes around.”
I see that this is this weeks attempt to relaunch Brown’s premiership, it will fail abysmally. Pensions….and the Treasury under Brown taking over 100 billion pounds out of the system in the last 10 years. Heard someone mention recently that it was now nearer 7 billion a year that was creamed off, this is a toxic subject for Brown and he would have been better off not opening up a debate on it.
62 ”Mr Brown is unveiling a round of eye-catching schemes, including one to reform social care for Britain’s ageing population, in a bid to turn his fortunes around.”
It seems that all government business at the moment is designed for one thing only: “to turn round” the rapidly failing fortunes of useless Brown.
What a blo0dy disgraceful way to try to run a country.
Fernando perhaps it is that however well you present the Conservative policies they are not very popular. Something about the difficulty of polishing a turd.
I think that all the leaflets in the world will make C & N impossible for the Lib Dems - Mike’s point above. However the important thing for the electorate at C & N is to stamp hard on Brown and possibly the Labour party that is responsible for him.
[61] Tory activists are notoriously immobile - it’s the devil’s own job to move them into the marginal ward next door, let alone across constituencies or even further. Whereas the LibDems seem to have a “roadshow” approach (Labour are somewhere between the two - or were, in the days when anyone supported them
).
It’s probably down to the age profile of Tory activists - with the younger ones being far too self-important (as can be seen on any day here) to actually go knock on voters’ doors…
Paddick not a fan of bar charts
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/
62. I don’t think it matters what GB does now. He could give every single person in the country a free XBox 360 and a voucher for a tug job from Caroline Flint and it wouldn’t matter. Everybody now assumes that everything he does is deceptive and probably incompetent. He literally can’t win. Even on those increasingly rare occasions when he is trying to do the right thing and is telling the truth.
67 ‘Even on those increasingly rare occasions when he is trying to do the right thing and is telling the truth.’
do you have any evidence that this has ever happened?
61, 65 For evidence, try to find the video clip the Tories did for their activists at Ealing Southall. Lots of very well scrubbed young men, all in suits and ties, sitting around in a Committee Room looking important. There was lots of food in evidence as well. The “activists” looked like they had gone there to attend an interview - or at least to make an imopression. None of them looked like they were going to roll their sleeves up and get on with anything so vulgar as hard work.
42 The detailed data from the Phi5000 survey of attitudes to the party leaders is very positive for Cleggy , he is achieving postive ratings very much more quickly than Cameron did after becoming party leader . Contrary to popular opinion amongst Conservative posters on here Cleggovergate had a positive not negative impact on voter’s opinion of him .
67: “and a voucher for a tug job from Caroline Flint and it wouldn’t matter”
In fairness, that would probably be enough for me…
Hillary who ??? …. the Obama camp begins to move on :
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10261.html
70 LOL Cleggover. I doubt it, and I doubt his wife was too impressed either.
Is that number 31 talking to Nick clegg
re 70. Come on Mark - there is no comparable data. PHI has only just come into existence
Frank Field on the Today programme, replaying a world service interview - 2hrs 10 minutes into the Today recording on BBC iplayer
States he will bring down the budget if he does not get his way on 10p. Backbench MPs will vote it down and Brown will have to go.
Alan Johnson “people are tired of this character assassination”
Johnson exasperated with FF
Johnson “all these knives coming out.. I’ve never been shouted at once… Frank was only a minister for a year..I’m not the Brown fan club leader but I respect him… can i set this True Confessions stuff aside… some people see the opportunity to stick the knife in to someone they despise… (compares Brown to Churchill)… they’re all coming out of the woodwork now (tearfully) just STOP it and let’s get on with the things that matter’
LOL
oh dear me.
75. How can Mark make comparisons, or is he just guessing?
r e20 Nick P’s wasn’t much better either. He was maintaining that because the US is so paranoid about who it lets in then we all (60 million) of us have to go to the expense (passport prices have tripled in recent years to stealthily hide the cost of ID cards) and inconvenience of having biometric passports, rather than those who voluntarily chhose to go and visit the US go and get biometric visas.
Here is the audio link to Frank Field
http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/today/listenagain/ram/today4_johnson_20080512.ram
76 it was brilliant wasnt it. i thought johnson was going to burst into tears!!
70 - “Cleggovergate”? Ugh.
I think the picture you’re really looking for is this one:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/97/BaskinRobbinsMpegMan.jpg/300px-BaskinRobbinsMpegMan.jpg
Mark Senior - I owe you £20.
79 The big political issue is becoming Brown himself: is such a clearly flawed character fit to be PM, how much longer can he limp on for, and how much damage is he doing to this country?
69 My impression is that Tory activists from outside were doing a lot of work in Ealing Southall, but it wasn’t terribly well focused.
You do touch on an important point, though, that providing plenty of food and drink to activists is a mistake.
Frank Fields comments are immensely damaging, and its so reminisent of the backstabbing that went on in 95. Brown is mortally wounded. What may happen in the next week or two is anyones guess. A thrashing in C&N could be terminal. Lib Dems may well vote Tory to ensure it is so.
86: It’s also amazing how bad the response Johnson gives is. He even suggests Gordon is like churchill lol
84- Lying in the House of Commons probably wasnt a good idea.
87. The dog in the insurance advert ?
Sean F “You do touch on an important point, though, that providing plenty of food and drink to activists is a mistake.”
You’ve clearly not been to Nick Soames Committee Rooms for some light snacking !!
http://www.lambournracing.com/images/galleryphotos/windsor.jpg
89 - ooooooh no.
89: Ohhhh noo.
80, 87 yes, I have to say Alan Johnson was highly amusing, the way he lost his temper with the Today interviewer like a sixthformer
Johnson… ‘let’s talk about the issues that matter’
Interviewer… ‘we will but can I just ask you why this is all coming out now’
Johnson ‘oh yeah, right, we will, but only after we’ve done two more minutes on this..’
and then they ask him about his latest policy relaunch and probe him on that
‘interviewer - so you’re not going to change things you’re going to spend another year “listening” and consulting
Johnson (angry sigh) - you just can’t win here, can you, look, I don’t have a magic bullet…’
stick a fork in Labour, they are done.
One interesting point about the Brian Paddick diary was how free he was with accusations about Ken Livingstone’s drinking.
69 – The infamous ‘Ealing CF video’
Get a lot of activist into a nice, well air-conditioned room with plenty of great grub and some will have to be dragged out to actually get some campaigning done… as it was the fact is that most didn’t stand around ‘grazing’ and did, roll their sleeves up and pitch in.
Having said that, my experience of C&W (went up for the day last week) was there was a good deal more focus to events and far less ‘hanging around’… should also be noted that hanging around is not a trait limited to “very well scrubbed young men, all in suits and ties” (why on earth wear a suite to campaign in anyway?!… unless you’re the candidate its just bloody impractical!) I’ve seen activists hanging around at Labour and (to a much lesser extent I’ll admit) LibDem committee rooms and campaign offices.
85 – Hits the nail on the head! – I was encouraged to see that the campaign seemed to be a lot more focused in C&W than it was in Ealing.
Just listening to Westminster Hour from last night. has there ever been two more irrelevent politicians than emily thornbury and lyn featherstone. utterly vacuous non entities
Caption competition
‘And I thought Anne Widdecombe was well presented’
I still thought Johnson was transparent in trying to ride two horses - appearing loyal to Brown - but knowing that it will soon be hat-in-the-ring time….
But he certainly sounded genuinely exasperated. And how I laughed at Frank Field’s advice to Gordon “he should go and talk to those close to him….”
Mr Brown, party of one, your table is ready Mr Brown….
The collective wisdom, and mostly the hope, of this site is that both Labour and the Lib Dems will suffer meltdown, and that, therefore, we are approaching a Tory domination of English politics that will last for generations.
I cannot share the enthusiasm for an elected one-party state, nor the shift from “Punch and Judy” politics to “Sweeny Todd” politics that is already apparent.
various , the comments were not in fact mine but those of Anthony Wells - see the thread on his site on the survey .
ghost of harry flashman yes £ 20 please email me on markseniorcoins@msn.com and I will send you my address . PS I foolishly wagered £ 2 on harry flashman in a horse race on Saturday - it lost .
93.”stick a fork in Labour, they are done.”
Good one Test.
I should add that Labour were done last year in Scotland, being left to cook in their own juices for another year at Westminster has made them nay on inedible now.
96 “has there ever been two more irrelevent politicians than emily thornbury and lyn featherstone…”
Try adding Jennette Arnold, Labour’s London Assembly chair. She did a truly wretched radio interview the other day.
99.Every government what ever the party outlives its popularity eventually. A couple of years ago people thought that we had an elected one party state in Scotland in the shape of the Labour party, not so now.
NBC reports that the weekend net SD count finished Obama +6 and Clinton -1 :
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/05/11/1008749.aspx
There is, of course, an interesting self-harm strategy now available to Labour. Let Brown take all the flak, let him lose C&N, let him fail over 42 days, let all the brown stuff stick to Gordon alone.
Then, in a sorrowful, brothers in grey boiler-suits way, stick the knife in and send him back to Kircaldy with a flea in his ear.
‘Fess up to the public that he was a complete loser and that they’re sorry for inflicting him on us, really, honestly, how were we to know, etc.
Then, push Jack ‘Five hands’ Straw to the front and sell him as honest, straight, mature and sensible - scrap all the hideous Brown-Blair stuff and call an early election.
They’d lose, but not by so much as to give Cameron a clear two-term start.
Then, hold a proper blood-on-the-carpet leadership election, where Alan ‘are those tears genuine’ Johnson, pips David ‘gosh for a prat he comes across quite well’ Miliband, who then becomes deputy leader with responsibility for building new New Labour policies.
How about it lads?
It would have the added advantage of winning me some money on an early election, a bet I was suckered into by the misleading ‘Gordon Brown Weeks’ market on SpreadFair. [That should of course have been Gordon Brown’s Weak, but I failed to check closely enough.]
WOrth noting that in his interview, Frank Field said that a general election in late May 2010 was now a nailed on certainty….
106 will that coincide with the local elections - when was the last time we had local electons and a Ge on the same day -
106: Hm, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re having the same tortuous debate come September about a late October/early November poll as last year, once GB is deposed this summer and Labour get their “Milliband Bounce”…
107 - Well discounting that 1997, 2001 and 2005 were simultaneous with counties I would have thought 1979.
107. Not so. The local elections are always on the first Thursday in May. In 2010 it will be the London boroughs, I believe, that will be up for election. By 2010 we will be into a phase when the Conservatives will be defending high watermark gains from four year previous. I wonder whether it could be crossing Brown’s mind that there might be something in holding the GE after the locals to try to create the impression of some “Labour momentum”.
Does anyone know if there will be anymore C&N polls approaching election day?
106, 107 - the local elections will presumably be early May 2010. I can’t see Gordon Brown wanting local elections immediately before a general election (a good result for Labour would encourage complacency, a bad result would encourage defeatism). So I think Frank Field is wrong, actually.
5 May 2005 had some local elections as well as the general election, I believe.
111 Goupillon. Quite possible.
112. The tories are starting to become arrogant!
Had to laugh listening to the BBC in the car this morning discussing Labour’s woes. A Labour-inclined presenter talking to a Labour MP and a Labour spinner, obviously trying to generate something that sounded positive…
…and yet failing completely, as McShane ranted and raved about his colleagues’ behaviour. It really is all over for Labour. The death throes are going to wonderfully entertaining.
That Labour C&N website is just embarrassing. In design terms it’s rubbish, in content it’s petty (I thought we were supposed to celebrate those who had attained wealth?) and there’s no positive reason for us to vote Labour apart from keeping Tory Boy out (a reference that’s about twenty years old). Meanwhile the Tory website is well designed, makes the candidate look like a decent guy and barely mentions his opponent.
I’d vote Lib Dem, I couldn’t have the fact that I’d voted for this Labour campaign on my conscience.
To wet the appetite for the BBC clip:
Field: …well I certainly didn’t need any convincing about that side of his character, as I’d been on the receiving end of it.
Interviewer: Tell us what’s happened when you’ve been on the receiving end, what’s it been like?
Field: well I mean they are just tempers, I mean of indescribeable nature.
Interviewer: And does he shout?
FF: Oh yes he shouts with rage…
Mike, Is it possible to do a search on any posters previous postings on all threads (or even just my own postings!)?
103: Indeed, the Tory hegemony would end eventually, but what would replace it (”its hour come round at last”)?
New Presidential and Primary Polls for Kentucky :
McCain 53% .. Clinton 41%
McCain 58% .. Obama 33%
Clinton 58% .. Obama 31%
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/36656.html
100: Comparison with David Cameron’s early days as leader wasn’t mine, since, as Mike says, there isn’t comparable data. The current are indeed promising for Clegg though.
New Suffolk Primary Poll for West Virginia :
Clinton 60% .. Obama 24%
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/05-12-2008/0004810921&EDATE=
119, 121 …. Hillary winning here ?
Baskerville - glad I wasn’t the only one!!!
122. Hill Billies for Hillary Billary!
123. Yes, but a very valuable lesson learned. Always check the small print of any bet.
re 117
go into Google blogs search
Clegg is a much better leader for the Lib Dems in current circumstances than Ming would be, he was to associated with Brown, and if Kennedy hadn’t been relieved of the leadership and forced to face his drinking problem its likely this would have worsened and that would have impacted the Lib Dems (just think of all the missed PMQs & embarrassing interviews).
Clegg’s problem is that he has taken over a party that in last decade had grown complacent about ever increasing local and national representation. This has been halted and Lib Dems, while not declining in areas they represent, have had their advance halted. Wales & Scotland last year, the Ealing & Sedgefield by-election, the English locals in 2007 & 2008 were very much curates eggs, good in parts, bad in others. The shock of no longer being the party of protest and growth was reflected in the reaction of the Scots & Welsh parties last year.
I would like to see a YouGov C&N poll but I doubt whether they have enough people on their panel to create a proper sample
116. Incredible stuff. But does Frank Fiels comments have a ring of truth? Of course they do! We all know that Brown can be as pathetic as Field describes. Our PM is a certified loony by all accounts.
127. The invincibility of Lib Dems at by-elections is a bit of myth.
They were squeezed in the South Wirral, South East Staffs and West Dudley by-elections in the run up to 1997.
127.”The shock of no longer being the party of protest and growth was reflected in the reaction of the Scots & Welsh parties last year.”
That is the Libdems biggest problem in the present political climate, they are no longer seen as an alternative to the other two main parties if you want to change the government, or even keep the present status quo while having the luxury of making a protest vote.
At the moment there is not a viable centre right alternative to the Conservatives in UK politics which might split their vote up, in Scotland we now have three centre left parties all wooing the same voters.
131. Medium-term there must a strong possibility that a large chunk of the Lib Dem vote migrates to more focused protest parties such as the greens, far-left factions, localist populists and even eurosceptic groups.
Join to Choose [116] Hate to defend Gordon but if I had to deal with someone as smug as Field I might lose my temper.
i can’t believe how many people are pitching in to have a go at Brown now. is it just a co-ordinated attempt to get it all out in the open now rather than later, in the hope it all passes i wonder?
Some people like Alan Johnson may get sick of it after a while.
But big bullies getting a taste of their own medicine is always quite touching to watch and so it is with Brown. He can hardly pull the “poor little me, i’m so vulnerable and sensitive” act now, can he?
i think if labour go to a crashing defeat in the by-election coming up, then the men in grey suits may be out. It does seem at the moment that nothing can be done in government without these huge questions arising over his prime minitership. He is loathed by many , particularly in England. Getting rid of him may well draw the poison out but then what are we left with. The government will still be in a huge financial hole. Picking up the pieces will be hard.
126. Thanks Mike, wasn’t aware of this facility. As usual for me (probably all males actually) I tried to use it without reading the instructions. It just came up with my posts in Dec/Jan. I’m probably doing something wrong.
Thursday May 6th 2010 will be the local elections including the London Boroughs.
In 1983 and 1987 when the government was at the end of its fourth year Margaret Thatcher had the luxury of being able to call the General Election in June once she had seen the analysis of the local election polling in May.
It would be very difficult for Brown to go beyond May 6th although technically he could go into early June. There would be great disadvantages to an incumbant running a General Election campaign, which everybody knew would have to be called, after a four week local election campaign. The extra costs and having an effectively an eight week campaign would be thrown at the Government.
Also the Lord Levy allegations yesterday were quite damning really , surprised they havent had more coverage.
What chance of Field being kicked out of the Labour Party? If 116 represents his R4 interview, and he is continuing with this campaign, it’s bordering on treasonable in political terms isn’t it? Fair enough voice some doubts, Charles Clarke/Prescott/Cherie-style, but to so openly knife the leader and keep twisting it, and hint at bringing down the government in his last interview, just seems over and above mere internal Labour back-biting.
I’m sure DC would happily take him on board…
137 Indeed, it is clear that our PM is incapable of telling the truth about anything. the fact that Levy tells us that the PM knew about the loans all along (a self evident truth) and his statement to the contrary in parliament means he is unfit for office.
when will Labour realise that the public are not completely stupid and that every lie, heaped upon lie, does not go unnoticed.
Interesting article in the Guardian titled
“Brown damned by his Faustian past”
Here is the final part
That is the government’s predicament. It has moved so far from its traditional social democratic roots that any action to remedy the excesses of capitalism can now be portrayed as being akin to Bolshevism. The obvious solution to the 10p tax fiasco, for example, would be to raise the money from the rich instead. That, though, is off limits. The simple solution to banks refusing to pass on lower interest rates to their customers is to use Northern Rock as an aggressive state-owned competitor for mortgages. That, too, is off limits.
There is, of course, not the slightest suggestion that the Conservatives would do any of this either. But that’s not the point. There is a policy vacuum and today the Liberal Democrats will seek to fill it when Nick Clegg urges tougher regulation on the City. For Labour the warning is clear, since the public is asking a perfectly valid question. If the government is culpable for the economic crisis but responds to it with utter passivity, is there really any point to it?
130.
The point about the Lib Dems at by-elections up to 1997 sprang something into my mind. A couple of years ago I saw a tv programme called ‘MP Outtakes’ and it included an interview with a Lib Dem by-election candidate who kept laughably tripping over his words about the Lib Dems poor performance in (I think) Christchurch. I’m certain that candidate was Nick Clegg. Did he ever stand in a by-election?
138. Its certainly an astonishing attack! But does Brown have the stregnth and authority to kick Field out?
141. It can’t have been Christchurch if they won!
re 106 He actually plumped for June 2010
Well it’s time to resurrect that good old phrase, “A Vote for the Lib Dems is a Vote for Labour”.
It’s certainly true in Crewe.
And, of course, we’re getting the Draft Queen’s Speech this Wednesday… Relaunch XXXIV beckons…
(Can I just point out what a ludicrous idea the Draft Queen’s Speech is. A pre-announcement of a pre-announcement? Perhaps Gordon should do draft-draft Queen’s Speeches in Januaries, too?)
139 Deniability is something all politicians crave where they think something might be murky. Mrs Thatcher made a point of distancing herself from being directly implicated in funding by creating a Chinese Wall between Lord MacAlpine and herself - so she could deny any direct knowledge. Gordon Brown probably did the same as regards non-union funding; his involvement in discussion such as Warwick meant he had to be aware there. He may well have guessed or known of loans but as he was never officially told he can deny, quite truthfully, that he was ever informed.
The stupidity currently is Miliband and others claiming Gordon Brown is all sweetness and light Alan Johnson’s response was much more nuanced - he didn’t deny Brown might bully others just that he had never been shouted at and called for an end to tittle tattle.
Some say, “There were no gas chambers.”
Gabble says, “There will be no audit trail generated by ID cards.”
Call it ‘IDenial’ — every bit as mistaken and ideologically motivated as the Holocaust variety.
Emperor Levy is on Radio 5 at 2pm, should be fun!
145.Well the Conservatives don’t need to rush to the printers, I am sure that the Scottish Tories still have a few piles of leaflets making that point in last years elections lying around.
Went to C and N over the weekend - my view is that the tories are on the up but the lab vote is collapsing - really collapsing - and the lib dems are going to be the main beneficiaries - apart from Lab stay at homers - and even they could be persuaded by Rennard and co if indeed it begins to look like Tory V Lib Dem
I’ve just listened to FF’s hatchet job on Gordon. It is really astonishing, and not what I would have expected from someone as level-headed and sensible as Field.
This is all manna from heaven for Dave. His PMQs are just writing themselves at the moment; indeed, it is GB’s colleagues who are handing over the material.
Remarkable cross-party co-operation there…
151- Given at the last election it was LAB 21K, CON 14K, LIB 8K, what would be the ramifications if the Lib Dems won, with the tories only a bit behind, and Labour dead last? Could Labour succesfuly spin it as simply bad for the Tories ignoring their own result or would it still fit into the overall “Labour down” narative?
Frank Field has long been rent-a-quote for broadcasters wanting a pop at Labour; surely as with George Galloway and Clare Short the differences are now irreconcilable and it’s time to begin political divorce proceedings? Shame, as FF can talk a lot of sense sometimes, but he’s speaking out so often at the moment that he just comes across as a loose cannon.
And don’t forget the daughter factor in Crewe - there are plenty of overexcited posts on here of the Labour vote collapsing, but even with a mediocre campaign this is Labour ground with a candidate likely to attract a large personal vote. Loose talk of Labour coming 3rd sound premature to me…
117, 126 sorry may just be being thick but Blog search finds the blog (which I already know).
How does kjh or I do a search on any posters previous postings on all threads. I am sure he just wants to reread his own.
Well it would appear that the latest Brown relaunch (lost count of the number) has been fatally wounded by lunchtime today by one of his own backbenchers. The new Labour darling of the news studio’s has undergone a dramatic about turn since his last media studio tour where he was convinced that his demands would be granted by the government regarding the 10p tax issue.
When your latest PR stunt does not even make it out to the blocks before being eclipsed by some dramatic attacks by one of your own MP’s, you are in real trouble.