Can West Virginia do anything to the Dem race?
May 13th, 2008
..Or have we passed the game-changing moment?
Another Tuesday evening and another primary in the race for the Democratic nomination. This time it’s in West Virginia which decides the fate of 28 delegates. The state’s demographics look good for former First Lady and it’s possible that she could finish up in the 60s with Obama down in the 20s.
But will it matter? For it’s beginning to look as though last Tuesday’s North Carolina and Indiana primaries finally closed the deal. In the past seven days getting on for 30 super delegates have declared for Barack and he now enjoys a lead amongst this group.
The only thing really at issue is how and when Hillary stands aside. One thought is that she could use the expected victory tonight to go out on a high.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
“Can West Virginia do anything to the Dem race?”
Nope.
What WV is important for is to show that, to get through to low information voters, you need to work at it for years, decades even. The lack of educational achievement and the dirt poor nature of the state is very sad to read about and they need support; even if they don’t want to, or aren’t able to, listen to your message.
No.
It will take something completely unseen to derail the process.
Yes - polish up her credentials as VP.
Sorry to do a reverse Jack W and go over to Blighty so early in the US thread, but OT I think http://www.crewe.tv is worth a gander because of Cameron’s exclusive interview with them. His willingness to engage is impressing the local guy (who normally is a Labour supporter as can be seen if you read his comments on Tamsin D)
“Once is good, twice impressive (as of Monday afternoon) but with a third David Cameron visit in the pipeline you’ve got to conclude that the Edward Timpson (Conservative) Crewe & Nantwich campaign is serious. They really want to win this seat!
….
Thing is, Cameron doesn’t hesitate, deliberate or dither. He’s straight in. It’s like watching a Premier League midfielder take control. No messing.
….
But will he be up to support his candidate again? “Almost certainly, it’s a vital seat. We’re taking it very seriously. The people of Crewe and Nantwich need to know that we’re determined and intend to act on their behalf.”
.
A few minutes later, as we drove into Nantwich, the number of blue “Timpson” campaign boards grew considerably. This is Tory country. Then, in Nantwich and along Pepper Street, both Cameron and Timpson were very well received. With the entourage let loose on the historic streets, just as Tamsin Dunwoody was in core Crewe areas on Sunday, the voters were visibly lifted by the arrival of their candidate and the party leader. There wasn’t much conversion required here, just a gentle prod and a reminder that voting for their candidate/party is essential…”
Those are wild looking posters by the way…..
Hillary’s posters …. clearly made in the land of the rising sun ?!?
test
those posters are old and have been used for ages.
They can give her a high on which to gracefully retire.
She is $20m in debt.
My prediction for tonight -
Clinton 68
Obama 30
Edwards 2 (his name’s still on the ballot)
7 - Agree.
Also no way the Clinton campaign would use that poster in WVa, except perhaps in a few dorm precincts up in Morgantown, home of WVU.
Only real question is, will Clinton win statewide by +20% margin, or by less.
…but if she does carry on, then those Hillary posters give a suitable image for her kamikaze campaign. All she can hope to do is crash onto Obama’s carriers….
It will be interesting to see how the Obama campaign respond to the expected Clinton landslide in WV. The response to the question “Why did Obama do so badly?” can’t be “Because there aren’t many African Americans or college graduates” and it shouldn’t be accusing West Virginians of racism either.
11 MM. Divine Wind eh …..
Reposted:
182. If we halved our defence budget we would only shave 1% off our government spending as a proportion of GDP. Ireland is now a net contributor to the EU - a similar amount per capita to us.
Your other points merely reinforce my view that we don’t need to raise taxes!
On topic, Chelsea flew out to Puerto Rico yesterday, so I suspect Hillary will be hobbling on to the end, if only to fundraise more than she’s spending and reduce her debts.
10.
I think you’re a bit off there. Clinton +30% is the par score.
The demographices are pretty perfect for here, and she has campaigned hard.
12 - Be honest; that he needs to do much work in areas like this so that people know him and what he stands for. You can’t break through easily and quickly in areas with poor income levels and low levels of media saturation the way that you can in dissimilar areas.
Bill unfortunately put his foot in it and predicted a 80/20 win. Not exactly good expectation management !!
OT
but on the Sky blog.. Dave tells a good joke..
“Ed Balls is the man with the most appropriate surname since Trevor Crapper invented the lavatory.”
only it was Thomas wasnt it>>>>???
13 more like Divine Wind-up….
18 Thomas took the credit but it was his evil twin Trevor really.
18. LOL! Great to see Dave having some fun with this assorted group of weirdo’s and fruitcakes!
[18] - Because what this country has really been lacking is a leader capable of telling a good joke.
1 - That is a very elitist comment. Not saying it is completely wrong, but still a bit patronising.
The positive for Clinton is that a win tonight will give her a Prime Time victory speech where she can once again direct people to hillaryclinton.com to give money.
22. Nah just one with a sense of humour…..
Clinton’s victory margin in WV: +30,5
Lates WV Polls: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/wv/west_virginia_democratic_primary-637.html
Pablano is predicting +39 : http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/west-virginia-preview-clinton-by-39.html
Look at the kos diary I linked to yesterday, that’ll put you right on what I think. Just because you’ve had a tough day being jumped on by the tories here, don’t jump on me for showing how there are some people who need to be helped rather than ignored.
Anyone who uses the word ‘elite’ as a pejorative really has no right to talk about prejudice in any case, I don’t respond to those sort of arguments. WV uis very poor, it has poor media links and the average income is (I believe) the lowest of the fifty states, as such the voters are low information, dirt poor and undereducated. If something is true then you have to say it.
Don’t argue with facts, you end up getting hurt.
26 - Comment to 23 (natch).
Boulton also points out that Darling said that the raising of allowances would compensate 4.4 million who had lost out and for remaining 1.1 million would compensate by 50%. That makes 5.3 million losers…. but did Gordon say (again and again) on his Sunday / Monday tour of the TV sofas that it was untrue there were 5.3 million losers?
Acting PM Field was probably correct to say that this was Darling acting against Gordon’s preferences (with the Cabinet behind Darling?) - could explain why Balls surreptitiously attacked Darling in his press conference yesterday.
26. Low information = vote Clinton then?
The Clinton Campaign on Why WV Matters :
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/the_clinton_campaign_on_why_wv.php
29
Low education favors Clinton.
Low income favors Clinton.
Rural areas favors Clinton.
White female favors Clinton.
Low media exposure favors Clinton.
Anti-black racism favors Clinton.
31. Ah right, the people who dont count then.
26 - In the sense of name recognition and knowledge of Clinton I yes, they have spent decades cultivating areas like this and the result here will pay dividends.
9,10,15,17 WVA PRIMARY
Am being an optimist and saying that Clinton only wins by around +20%
IF only because some voters who want to go with the national winner.
For me, all the WV counties will bear watching tonight. But most especially
KANAWAHA - big & diverse, with state workers & other middle class types
PUTNAM - suburban sprawl between Charleston & Huntingdon
MONONGALIA - Morgantown & West Virginia University, but also fair number of coal miners & retirees.
BERKELEY & JEFFERSON - part of the DC commuter belt
MERCER - far southern WV, has significant Black minority
These are likely the counties where Obama has his best shot. Rest of the state is mix of medium & small cities, smaller towns and plenty of rural communities, the latter geneally strung out like rough diamonds along a million miles of windy, country roads.
There are the areas where
34
You don’t think she will win by at least 30,5% of the popular vote?
33. Sounds like good political operations.
34. Monongalia..is that between China & Russia?
32 - I’ll post the link again and maybe somebody might read it as it mirrors my view, and I also won’t be misrepresented.
Obama should have made more effort in WV and KY because these states matter, not in an election sense, but in a unity sense. I hope he will do so in the coming months. It’s akin to the tories needing to address inner cities, even if they aren’t going to win seats there, not doing so is divisive and dismissive.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/12/114237/630/544/513035
35. Thats a big big gap. 20+ I can see but 30+ is a great win, even if its ultimately not altering the bigger result.
26 - Ouch! I think you’re a bit more prickly than me tonight. Chill out. This afternoon was great fun winding up Tories.
You’re right that West Virginia is poor and that it’s citizens need help. You are also right that its voters are probably more ‘information-poor’ than most.
The patronising bit is saying that these are the reasons why Clinton is winning. Or in other words if they paid more attention they would support Obama. Maybe Clinton’s message appeals to these voters more than Obama’s. I can see how the fighter message plays well and the Obama comments about PA voters don’t.
I don’t want to make a big thing about it, and I know that you care about these people (as do I), but the way your comment came across seemed quite demeaning to me.
36 - Exactly, and Obama being visible for 12 months or less isn’t the way to win such a state.
37. But for the past 25 years or more, the Tories have scarcely pretended to care about the inner cities. The difference is that a candidate needs a united party, in a way that a government doesn’t need the whole country on its side.
32 — WTF?
38 - There is an outside chance that it is 40+
1,23,26,29,31
The idea that West Virginia voters are laboring under “low information” is simply not true.
Granted, hard to find a copy of the New York Times outside of Charleston or Morgantown or the far eastern panhandle.
But WV is saturated with satellite dish antenas and reasonably plugged into the internet.
Not to mention every hamlet has a diner where the locals gather to debate the issues of the day!
Thing to keep in mind about primary voters, is that by definition they tend to be the best informed and most politically engaged members of the community. For example, the tend to be regular newspaper readers. This is true of ANY community, leastways in the USA.
ot. £2.7billion to try and win a by-election. Cheaper than er nothing!!
39 - I’m not saying they would support Obama, they may turn against the GOP though if two Dem candidates kept debating the issues and that’s a beginning.
My position is that WV matters as much as any state, if not more. There are some who think ‘forget WV etc, if they don’t vote for us’ but I would hope that Obama fights against that, it’s the antithesis of his appeal.
Thos are the patronising ones, and I dislike them as much as I do anyone who divides people into ‘for us’ and ‘against us’.
44
Sounds right; I retract my ‘low information voter favors Clinton’,
36 - Love your take on “Monongalia”! A corruption of a much prettier name, Monongahelia. Though must say that by WV standards, the county is the acme of sophistication . . .
46 - Fair enough. It’s just that didn’t come across in your 1st post (at least the way I read it).
Interesting question from Ted on previous thread about the equalising of the Income Tax and NI thresholds.
44 - And relative poverty makes those less prevalent in certain areas.
US ELECTION IN NOVEMBER
Ambinder had an interesting take on the Map:
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/the_general_election_map.php
“McCain’s base states — 175 electoral votes.
Texas (34), West Virginia (5), Georgia (15), South Carolina (8), Kentucky (8), Tennessee (11), Alabama (9), Mississippi (6), Louisiana (9), Arkansas (6), Wyoming (3), Idaho (4), Utah (5), Arizona (10), Alaska (3), Oklahoma (7), Kansas (6), Nebraska (5), South Dakota (3), North Dakota (3), North Carolina (15)”
“Obama’s base states — 172 electoral votes –
Washington, D.C. (3), Maryland (10), California (55), New York (31), Vermont (3), Massachusetts (12), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Rhode Island (4), Illinois (21), Hawaii (4), New Jersey (15), Maine (4)”
“Tossups:
Pennsylvania (21), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (7), Ohio (20), New Mexico (5), Colorado (9) — 72 electoral votes.”
—–
Will Iowa go to Obama or McCain?
And what about Michigan, Texas and North Carolina?
Can McCain take New Hampshire?
Can McCain win Ohio & New Mexico?
What about Pennsylvania and Colorado?
42. Phillippe the only people who matter are those that vote Obama, the rest are either:
Racist because if they werent they all vote Obama because he’s God, Buddha, Mohammed a jedi, Superman and a Wizard all rolled into one, and no could vote against that.
Women, who know nothing anyway and shouldnt fuzz up their pretty heads with politics. Some might be dykes and therefore vote Hilary because they fancy her and hate men
Are poorly educated and simply don’t understand, in fact they shouldnt have the vote but should get a pat on the head.
…as for those handful of blacks who voted Clinton, Uncle Toms who probably supported slavery.
22. This is Balls, though. Ever since the Budget, Cameron has taken great pleasure in making him a figure of fun. Ed Balls is fast becoming Dave’s plaything. A true patsy.
Nice Picture of Hill on the http://drudgereport.com/
53..or duped by the evil white man…
Fair to say that Obama has written West Virginia off. Which is indeed NOT the way to win votes there.
Beyond normal human nature, West Virginia has a major state inferiority complex. So West Virginians tend to be more than appreciative when any kind of national celebrity makes any kind of fuss about the state.
JFK (or was it Ted Sorenson?) understood this and used it to his advantage in the 1960 WVa Primary. He barnstormed the state, mixed with the people, let them touch the hem of his garmet. And the rest is history.
Unfortunately from my humble perspective, Obama (& Axelrod) made a different calculation. That Barrack simply didn’t have the time & luxury of campaigning at every plant gate shift change, community ox-roast, etc from Weirton to War. Or that he could do this, and still lose.
But personally think that he should have given it the old college try.
53–
HAHAHAHA! — I missed completly the ironic subtone of your post; I apologize.
By the way, have you seen this fantastic site? : http://www.obamamessiah.blogspot.com/
If not, you’ll enjoy it as much as it will confirm your darkest fears…
Anyone know what the Sun frontpage is tomorrow?
59. Depends who wrote it.
If this is for 1 year only, what then?
58. Aye its not far off.
Theres probably mileage for someone to push this track on some of Obama’s supporters.
Using the time honoured measurement method, West Virginia is three times the size of Wales.
Official statistic as per the post I linked to -
“20% of the adult population in West Virginia are low-level readers. Percentages represent county residents who have difficulty reading beyond a fourth grader level. These adults find it difficult to read basic information like road signs, job applications, newspapers articles, and food and medicine labels.”
When a people get into this sort of vicious cycle they have to be given better opportunities and, whilst the GOP offers them little apart from ‘values’, the Dems should really be eating into their support.
58 - “We are the ones we’ve been waiting for. We are the change that we seek.”
As Andrew Sullivan has so ably shown, this is the classic liberal message which should be embraced by many on tehe right. The phrase revolves around ‘we’, not ‘I’ (as in Messianism) or ‘We/you’ (as in statist government), the message therein is that ‘nocbody apart from you yourself is your saviour’.
In layman’s terms - ’stop whinging and expecting government to ply you with handouts, get off your butt and make the change you want to happen by doing something about it yourself’.
Not quite as snappy but ‘Amen’ to that.
53. This is a bit rich considering the Obama campaign has never once dismissed a state as the Clinton campaign has to small states, Midwestern caucus states and heavily African American states.
I know the answer that is always thrown back is Michigan and Florida, but Obama has never said those people aren’t important: just that he didn’t do better because he didn’t have a chance to campaign there.
64. I dont support Clinton (whats the point anyway I do not live there or vote in US elections) so theres not much use telling me what Clinton’s campaign did or does as it doesnt at all relate to my point.
early exit poll data from West Virginia
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080513/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_exit_poll_glance
65. But your claim just seems bizarre. Whoever said those that don’t race for Obama are racist?
Socrates, are you still preaching Obama?
Get over it, people are so obsessed, it’s mad. I support HRC, simply because her plans make more sense, she is far more descriptive about what she wants to do.
At the end of the day, I don’t really care between Obama or McCain, though I suspect McCain is very capable too.
There’s a clear difference between the realists and hopemongers, you only have to look at online comments to know what a God like persona Obama has made for himself in the media. There are blogs devoted to his greatness and messianic messages. But even then, if someone says anything negative about him, all hell breaks look. If one of his own surrogetes says something wrong it “oh, it’s making Obama look bad…poor obama”. If it’s Hillary’s surrogates “Hillary is a b1tch..what is she doing”
Blatent sexism, that’s clear. In the media all the time.
Blatent racism, that’s clear. 92% of AA vote for Obama, that’s not racist, but 60% White vote..that is… Not seeing the logic.
2. Yokel. Do you anticipate/fear something completely unseen derailing the process?
Who the heck is Larry Sinclair?
68. Firstly, this is a political blog, albeit with a strong betting tilt to it, so clarifying who has said what is fair enough.
Secondly, Obama has released far more detailed plans on more policy areas than Clinton. He has also written a book about his views on just about every area.
Thirdly, just because someone inspires people doesn’t mean they can’t be a realist about the state of the world. In fact, I would say a politician with a realistic view of the world would see it as obvious that inspiring people with a theme to your campaign is probably the best way to get real change done.
Fourthly, in US politics there are partisans for every candidate - what’s new?
Fifthly, on which media outlets has there been sexism?
Sixthly, I said myself just a couple days ago that Obama benefitted from his race from some demographics and was hindered by his race among others. You shouldn’t attribute viewpoints to people unless they state them themselves.
Absolutely Not.
This evening Sarah Kovner a major Democrat and Clinton supporter from New York and financial backer has switched to Obama.
The latest Oregon poll has Obama up 55-35, a poll today in Puerto Rica says 51-41 that if Clinton is down on delegates, votes etc she should pack up, and the Governor of Colorado endorsing Obama today said that it is time to finish it.
By next Wednesday morning Obama will have his pledged delegate total with interest and super delegates will probaly be well over 300.
AND yesterday Ohio on its recheck of the Dem Primary votes increased Obama by getting on for 50,000, took the same amount from Hilary, almost a 1.5% switch up and down and narrowed the gap by almost 100,000 voters, hitting any Clinton voter surplas from West Virginia.
Let’s get real.
WEST VIRGINIA PRIMARY & POLITICS
From the 1930s to the 1990s, West Virginia was a pretty dependable cog in the old FDR Democratic coalition. The last major beneficiary of this was Bill Clinton.
Which is a tad ironic, since the prosperity of Clintonian America never really made it to the Mountain State.
The normal political pattern in West Virginia during this period, as in adjacent parts of eastern Kentucky and was for counties with union coal mines, steel mills, chemical or other plants to vote Democratic, while non-union rural areas & small towns tended to vote Republican. There was also a traditional division between areas that during the Civil War were predominately unionist (most of northern WVa) versus those that sided with old Virginia & the Confederacy (most of southern WVa) with the former areas tending to vote GOP while the latter tended Democratic.
However, by the 1990s there were a number of factors that erroded former New Deal Democratic dominance (even though some had actually helped prop it up in the 70s & 80s)
**decline of the state’s core economy & population
**heavy emigration out of state, esp. by young people
**increasing anti-Dem politization of fundamentalists & other religious conservatives via the Christian Coalition
**increasing dissafection of rural residents with urban/suburban national Dems on burning issues including gun control
So it really wasn’t a surprise when Bush beat Kerry in 2000 & 2004. But still shocking.
69. No. I don’t quite see anything stopping the nomination. I think if anything is going to hit it’s in the big racem, especially with the likes of Larry Sinclair’s of this world about.
The Democratic Party simply can’t go against him on current form because of the African American backlash, no matter if they did have their doubts that he’s the right guy.
Anyway he has the numbers, he won on the trail so due process will most likely take its course.
67. Nevermind….
67. Those that don’t VOTE for Obama!
Quite frankly, almost all the politicians these days have written a book, it’s nothing new, but a silly PR stunt to get sales when you are running to become president.
You can’t get inspired by a politician, his vision of late, died, he has no way of delivering “change in washington” how exactly, he intends to make republican senate/house members to work for him is beyond me, and beyond him, hence the lack of any kind of elaboration. Most of his plans are similar to Hillary Clinton, the only difference being that she can actually explain them without a teleprompter!
This is a politicalbetting site, and while there are Labour supporters, and I have been reading this site for a long long time now, I have not come across such a lovefest for any politician except Obama. I support David Cameron, not because he’s a nice guy, but because I believe in conservative ideas, this cannot be said for the ron paul/obama internet geekfest crowd who switch from hard right to hard left on personality, rather than experience, quality, common sense or logic.
N1 Bristol City.
Nice game to look forward to v watford at wembley!
PS Darling/Brown = HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!
PPS Tressage from earlier thread no i am not martin day or casino royale. Each of us provide our own individual highly sophisticated analysis here!
77 - You are barking up the wrong political tree. As for how Obama and Paul have policy similarities does it *really* need spelling out to you?
I often link to Andrew Sullivan as someone who is on the right and who supports Obama, he also supported Ron Paul.
It’s about policy and approaches to liberalisation. So called ‘values voters’ and those who focus on the left/right axis are a bit lost when asked to figure it out though.
78. Watford should watch for Ivan Sproule, that kid has bags of pace.
No guile admitttedly but lots of pace.
I see the tax compensation con has gone down well on newsnight. no doubt the summer storm has passed and Labour will be back in front soon. oh hang on, inflation up, house prices down and retail sales collapsing. …… cheer up nick it could be worse.
77. Why can’t you be inspired by a politician? Thatcher and Reagan certainly inspired a lot of their followers, and with very effective results for their ideologies. He won’t get many Republicans to work for him, but he doesn’t need that - he just needs to get them to vote for his legislation. He can do this in two ways: the first is by being well-considered by the public at large so that representatives from swing districts and states fear losing their seats by unnecessarily blocking his legislation, and the second is by accomodating some of their concerns within the legislation itself - he did this very successfully in the Illinois state legislature to pass death penalty reform.
The reason why there has been so much more praise for Obama than anyone else is because he is by far the most talented politician that has come along since this website started. Politicians like Ronald Reagan, like Bill Clinton are rare but the talent is clear to see whether you agree with their views or not. That’s what has happened with Obama.
Plus the idea that Obama is “hard left” is just silly.
Darling lying through his teeth on Newsnight. Paxman doesn’t even have to bully him.
Tomorrows front pages all seem to be deeply cynical about the tax cut, though it does dominate. The Sun, however has a picture of Brown and calls him ‘the Bribe Minister’ ‘millions to get £120 from desperate Prime Minister’…..
I am not sure if this is positive or not, everyone likes a tax reduction, but i think it could go down like a lead balloon if the narritive becomes clear, that the tax cuts are coming from extra borrowing. I havent seen any of the news broadcasts on tv today, so i dont know how it has played generally.
the sun headline tomorrow is devastating ‘The Bribe Minister’ http://news.sky.com/skynews/picture_gallery/0,,70141-1315934,00.html. I can see cameron using it tomorrow at pmqs ‘he’s not so much as a prime minister, but a bribe minister’
Has gordon resigned yet? the suspense is killing me.
85/86 lol biggest political meltdown in world political history since the war!
Lab heading for less than 20% in GE!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVeFVtcdSYY
Check this guy out. You got to hand it to US politics. It seems that in every US election some kind of smear or scandal allegation is dug up….and this is no exception.
83. Chris A. I thought he made a reasonable fist of it considering the hand he has been dealt.
I ask again, what happens after this 1 year change announced by Darling?
90 Con take over and everything is fine!!!
Obama is not all that talented, his debate performances are not good - So no, he is not a great communicator without his teleprompter! His economics is poor.
Thatcher and Reagan also adopted a sharp economic belief. Obama’s belief on economics? His stance on foreign policy is how much different from previous democrats? His stance on healthcare reform is a half hearted stab at solving the problem? How about the environment - I think hillary does even better on that side of things.
I’m sorry to disappoint, but he is not a defining politician. Just like Tony Blair was never, and still isn’t a defining politician, neither will Obama. He simply does not, and is incapable of taking a hard stand on any issue. He is essentially the usual democrat, who happens to be an african american and can give a good speech.
Anyhow, this is the usual debate, personality politics for urban liberals and is not all that different from Blair and Cameron.
85. Cameron would not be so silly as to use a tabloid headline as a soundbite (soundbites are meant to work the other way round - ending up in the following day’s paper, not starting off in that morning’s). Can’t imagine he won’t go on that subject though. Some possible options:
- “As the PM has found £2.7bn to fund a tax cut, can he inform the House why the government refuses to fully fund the police pay rise, which would cost a fraction of the sum?” (or insert other appropriate spending scheme)
- “The PM assured the country in an interview that the cost of the compensation for those who’ve lost from the 10p tax changes would be less than a billion. Why is the government therefore spending an additional two billion it doesn’t need to, that he said it wouldn’t, and that it doesn’t have?”
Yet another unbelievable day in the trainwreck that is this government. Harold Wilson said a week was a long time in politics, right now a day seems a long time in politics!
Was musing over an idea last night re: LibDem Labour seats. At the last election there were Conservative voters in some LibDem Lab marginals prepared to vote tactically eg City of Durham, Wythenshawe. Will this increase massively at the next election, like what happened in Labour Conservative marginals from 1987-1992 (first starting in earnest) then devastatingly from 1992-1997?
FWIW I believe the answer is an resounding yes. And this very fact could bring an awful lot more seats into play for the LibDems in the event of a Labour meltdown 1997 style. I’m thinking of seats like Sheffield Central, Newcastle upon Tyne North, Newcastle upon Tyne East , Burnley all needing c.7-9% Lab LibDem swings. In many of the closer marginals there is still often a Tory vote in the high teens to squeeze, the four seats mentioned above are obviously somewhat lower so need ‘direct swing’ to succeed.
Also less LibDem losses to the Tories as showed by the local election results eg Westmoreland, Colchester, Cheltenham, Eastleigh etc.
The upshot of all this - LibDem seats currently a good buy? I think so.
93 - “May I ask the Prime Minister if he has taken out a £2.7 million mortgage with Northern Rock” might do it.
92. Kennedy was not a defining politician in policy terms; Johnson was far more influential in that respect, but Kennedy is the better remembered because of how he changed the way America saw itself.
So with Obama. Even if the only thing he ever achieves is to be elected, that by itself will be enough to ensure that he is remembered as a defining politician in America’s history.
70) Yokel, Larry Sinclair is a gentleman who claimed on a series of youtube videos earlier in the primary process to have had relations and shared narcotics with Obama earlier in his political career.
The process peaked when a website paid for Larry Sinclair to take a lie detector test. He failed and the story faded away.
53, 55 Yokel
What is your point, exactly?
Malcolm
Whilst we are on the subject of working class whites -
http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenumbers/2008/05/obama-and-worki.html
“It’s fair for the Obama camp to point out that he doesn’t do significantly worse against McCain among working-class whites than Clinton does, and that he does better with their upscale counterparts. And Obama’s numbers are nothing like John Kerry’s and Al Gore’s; they lost working-class whites to George W. Bush by 24 points and 17 points, respectively.
But working-class whites nonetheless are a group with which Obama might well like to improve. If he loses today’s primary, and next week’s in Kentucky, they’ll be the first place to look. And less-educated voters account for a greater share of the turnout in general elections than in primaries. While Obama could win a general election without them – just as he leads McCain today – it’s also true that the last Democrat to capture the White House, Bill Clinton, ran evenly among working-class whites as he did so.”
85 - laughed out loud in the office when I saw the Caroline Flint story today - can’t wait for PMQ’s tomorrow! And what wonderful CPI inflation numbers today, on top of the producer price inflation figures yesterday!
Whilst on the economic front, was reading about US Alt-A mortgages, specifically California. Basically about 15% are already in some form of default, many already going late on their payments, just as subprime did a year to 18 months ago. But Alt-A mortgages are about 50% higher in volume, and the amount borrowed on average is double, hence in aggregate it’s about 3 times the size of the subprime mess. The only 2 (very small) redeeming features are that the average Alt-A mortgage is about 90% loan to value (LTV) against 95% LTV in sub-prime, and the average credit scores of the borrowers is slightly better than subprime. And most of them are resetting from the start of next year to 2012.
IMHO when the market starts fretting about Alt-A, be prepared for something much bigger and nastier than the subprime fallout.
‘Palestinians in Gaza Are Phonebanking for Barack Obama’
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmU2YThkOWQyMjg4MDZmYTExYWFmYWEyNzI1ZDA5M2Q=
101. That has to be the funniest attempt to smear Obama I’ve seen yet. It’s hardly surprising that he has supporters in places like Gaza, but it would be crazy to claim he’s somehow damaged as a result. I’m sure John McCain has plenty of supporters he’s embarrassed about as well (e.g. the far right, like how the BNP supported Boris in London) - but funnily enough, you don’t usually hear much about them.
re 90 I commented on that on the last thread. We all lose £65 next April - the poorest proportionally the most, the borrowing figures go completely up the creek as do the chances of hundreds of Labour councillors.
Like most of new Labour - a quick fix not thought through
Great WEST VIRGINIA Carpetbagger
Ken Heckler was from Long Island,New York, an Ivy leager (Swathmore grad, Columbia ma & phd) who during WWII he was army historian. Which led to him writting the best seller “Bridge at Remagen” which remains one of the best books ever written about a single, critical battle.
After WWII, Heckler worked in the White House for Harry Truman, and did research for Adlai Stevenson. But he wasn’t statisfied being a top political aide; he wanted to be a politico himself!
So he up & moved to Huntington, West Virginia where he was hired to teach at Marshall College (now University). Heckler soon branched out to delivering current events commentaries on the local TV station. And within a year he ran for Congress . . . and won.
For the next dozen years, Ken Heckler was a political fixture in WV and DC. In his district, he quickly became famous for tearing across the countryside in a flashy red jeep, attending & speaking at public gatherings. Plus a truly impressive constituency services operation, which was a big deal in a district that was & still is one of the poorest in the USA. In Congress, he was a fighting liberal with a personality even his political/ideological opponents appreciated.
Voter admired his personality, honesty (in a state where this was an uncomon political virtue!) hard work & sheer energy. Politicos respected & feared him for the same things. Which was one of the reasons that he was able to win passage for the Coal Mine Health and Safety Act, truly landmark legislation for both WVa’s miners and their families, but also served as a “canary in the coal mine” for other major federal and state health & safety legislation.
So it was sad when he ran for Governor in 1972 (in large measure because his seat was eliminated when WVa lost a congressman due to redistricting) and ran into a brick wall: fellow carpetbagger Jay Rockefeller.
But Ken was only on the bricks for a short while. For when a opportunity came around, Ken Heckler ran for WV Secretary of State, was elected and then reelected many times. Indeed, he left to run for Governor and lost, then ran again for his old job and almost won - only thing that gave voters pause was Ken was 90 years old!
As Secretary of State, Heckler brought his trademark qualities of honesty, energy and personality to state elections and other records management. To say he knew how to work the system was a true understatement. Perhaps his most famous achievement was breaking the corrupt political establishment in Mingo County (at least for awhile) which was a VERY tough nut to crack; Mingo was the locale for the great movie “Matewan” about the WV Mine Wars of the 1920s.
West Virginia is notoriously clanish - Mingo Co was Hatfield turf - and wary of outsiders. Yet they warmed very quick to Ken Heckler, and never really cooled off. His political losses were not because he was disliked, they were DESPITE how well liked he truly was by the voters of West Virginia.
I’ve got a feeling next years budget will see a big tax rise, somewhere. Maybe NI again? I’m sure they will have to put up taxes in 2009, to have any hope of having a little bit in the kitty to give back to people in 2010….
105 they can’t put up taxes before the GE as that will completely finish them……
dave [s] Sea Shanty ukpaul
Just wanted to thank you guys for your excellent posts on this thread. I always read your posts as they informative and you have also been predicting the obvious outcome for some time.
I’ve been predicting that Obama was unstoppable from the time when I visited Mississippi earlier in the year; and from their primary I realised that the result was inevitable. There is no doubt that being here in the US has added greatly to both my knowledge and understanding of the Presidential election system and also of the American psyche. I am not in a position to make any predictions about the final result in November, but I’ll be back here in August for about ten weeks and will listen and learn some more.
As for West Virginia I have a story; my wife and I were driving north on Interstate 79 when we saw in the distance a guy come on to the hard shoulder on our side of the road. He was youngish, wearing a coonskin hat and had rabbits slung from a belt, he was carrying a rifle/shotgun. He idly wandered across the interstate [we slowed in minimul traffic just to watch him] and disappeared into the heavy woods on the other side of the road.
West Virginia, mountain momma,
Take me home, country roads…
Loved WV but found the old coal towns in desperate need of economic revival, although the folks were friendly and helpful. It really doesn’t matter the size of H Rodham Clinton’s victory this evening but if she polls under 80% she and W Jefferson Clinton will be disappointed. Parrot.
Malcolm
105 - Problem is a tax-rise announced in 2009 would likely come into effect only in 2010 and thus could explode in their faces - again!
Like the 10p fiasco announced last year came into effect right before the elections this year. Surely they’re not that stupid as to do the same thing again? Surely? Actually you may be right, Darling Brown just might do that.
97. I find it hilarious that anyone can come up with this kind of stuff and just land an allegation like that.
You just can’t see it happen in the UK like it does over there.
Hmm, trying that again. Certain text was meant to be striked out.
Like the 10p fiasco announced last year came into effect right before the elections this year. Surely they’re not that stupid as to do the same thing again? Surely? Actually you may be right, Darling Brown just might do that.
109 - Wasn’t there the Hamilton’s case that had some similarities?
108/110 - What is the strikethrough html code used here? I thought it was [del][/del] (with [ replaced with triangular brackets)
“Sutrely they’re not that stupid as to do the same thing again? Surely?” and “Darling” were each meant to be strikthrough
83. i think you are right, cameron should go on police pay. first its another back bencher issue, second highlights the governments deceitfulness towards the police pay negotiations, third by highlighting police pay cameron maybe able to indirectly encourage public sector workers into making pay demands/ taking industrial action. I think this would secretely be good for cameron as if brown caves in he will appear weak and irresponsible, if he doesnt they may bring him to his knees.
it may also be a good time for the conservatives to launch a tax cut/ reforms proposal as they are now shielded from accusations of unfunded tax cuts.
111. Who protest their innocence ’till this day….
111 - This is the woman - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nadine_Milroy-Sloan
111. Not like that. This fella just sticks himself on youtube, threatens to sue because the Obama campaign is infringing his liberties or something…..and just carries on without a hint of self conscience.
Champion, just champion.
Guy on Sky News calls today’s tax changes, ‘A Crewe Cut’.
114 - Well seeing as the woman was sentenced to three years for false accusations of rape I’d think that they would claim they were innocent!
118, i was meaning in general, ie brown paper bags and the dodgy pharaoh.
92. I agree Obama isn’t a great debater, but he can certainly speak without a teleprompter. I’ve seen him give great impromptu speeches. He’s also very good at doing interviews and meeting people and talking them round.
For many observing politics, people that consider both sides of an issue and come up with a balanced view is far more desirable than those who take “a hard stand” at one extreme.
Obama’s economic views are testament to this. He believes in a free trade, free market economy, but one in which market failues such as pollution are addressed, thus renegotiating trade deal to enforce environmental standards. (Incidentally, he has one of the best environmental records out there) He also believes that human capital is key to growth, and would invest in opening up loans for higher education and introduce a better retraining scheme for the unemployed. He is the first US politician to truly appreciate the importance of the internet and his broadband plan is very insightful.
On foreign policy, he believes in clear, defined rules for when unilateral military action can be justified, and his opposition to Iraq, at a time when the war was widely popular in the US shows that he sticks by them - unlike most Democrats, who buckled under the post 9/11 jingoism. He is unlike most Democrats in calling for expanding the military, while at the same time believing a more multilateral approach is needed. He also has very sound ideas for depoliticking US foreign policy such as giving the Director of Intelligence a fixed term and an independent Declassification Center to make sure the right documents are made public or kept secret. He’s also made far greater a commitment to foreign aid than any previous presidential candidate.
Key female Democratic strategist on CNN describing the nominee contest. “We have had a fight, this is going to end some time in June…”
re 113 He could ask how many post offices it would keep open, or how many nurses will need to be sacked. The possibilities are endless.
A friend of mine worked with the Hamiltons on their ‘Lunch With the Hamiltons’ Edinburgh shows. He’s also worked with Gyles Brandreth so he has a history of putting ex tory MPs on the stage!
Has anyone picked up on this piece in all of today’s excitement - now Blears’ briefing papers have been snapped by telephoto lens, in particular an email from a TV producer wanting to make GB a reality TV star:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7399700.stm
I particularly liked this passage:
“The e-mail to Ms Blears, from producer Margaret McCabe, says the show for young politicians would aim for an “Apprentice meets Maria/Strictly Come Dancing audience”, and go out on BBC One. “Please, please let all concerned know that this is not stunt TV,” it adds. It says, as a judge on the programme, Mr Brown could become “more popular than [Apprentice star] Alan Sugar”.
Yeah, right!
You just can’t make it up at the moment with this Government…
93 “As the PM has found £2.7bn to fund a tax cut, can he inform the House why the government refuses to fully fund the police pay rise, which would cost a fraction of the sum?”
Yes, David, that would be a cracking question, virtually impossible to answer - I guess Brown would revert to form by simply quoting the latest tractor production figures.
123 - and for his next production, Bill & Hillary Clinton in “Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolfe”?
Yep, next year’s tax increases will fall heavily on the higher paid - Darling admitted as much this evening. After, by then, 12 years in power, Labour will be reluctantant to increase the 40% tax rate, having stuck with it for so long so my guess would be an increase from 1% to 3% in employee’s NIC above the upper earnings limit, coupled with little or no increase in the level at which the 40% kicks in. An ever higher % of middle income taxpayers are now paying the 40% rate, so that, in reality, the true rate of income tax for several millions has increased appreciably.
92 Jaz
I have very, very low opinions of Jefferson Clinton and Tony B Liar, but I recognise that they could fool enough people including me [once in the Liar’s case] to vote for them.
Maybe that is why Obama is in their league. People must have had some kind of reason for voting for Hilda and Bushbaby but I have no idea what those reasons might have been.
Malcolm
West Virginia - CNN Exit
Clinton - 65
Obama - 32
WEST VIRGINIA PRIMARY - CNN projects Clinton winner
129. 33 is bearable - if it had been over 40 that’d have been a problem.
131. It still could be.
Uncharacteristically weak response by Vince Cable to the hapless Darling’s mini budget statement - he just didn’t seem to get it.
124. I would have thought this idea would be in breach of impartiality rules.
If it was a brief appearance on a one-off show it would be OK. But if it was a series of several programmes then it would not be in order for Brown to appear on every programme unless there were also equal appearances for Cameron and Clegg.
132. Yeah, it could be 20. It could be stunningly wrong and Obama’s won. So let’s just go with what it is.
Strange thing about the exit poll - male/female split virtually 50/50. Usually the Dems have women in the mid to high fifties. If that sampling is wrong then Clinton could be going towards 70%.
West Virginia professor now being interviewed on NPR. Say the key to how big a margin Hillary rolls up in WV today, is her performance in the southern WV coalfield. Because she campaigned hard down there, in area with very large Democratic registation percents and raw numbers.
136. Or, the sampling’s right, women haven’t turned out in similar numbers to elsewhere and Obama’s going to do better.
Professor is from West Virginia Wesleyian (good private school; Jay Rockefeller was briefly it’s president).
Slammed Obama for not spending any time in WV, missing opportunity (my own feeling). Notes that Obama had an op-ed piece in the Charleston Gazette, which noted deep in the text: “I’m a Senator from a coal mining state and have sponsored Clean Coal legislation.”
The Prof noted that what’s called “burrying you lead” in journalism class!
139. Disagree with you, Sea Shanty - I don’t see the point of wasting time there given
a) There was no way he could win, and losing big after campaigning there would make him look weak - this way he can brush it off - disrespectful to WV maybe, but that’s “real politic”.
b) Clinton wouldn’t have withdrawn if her 2in had been 10 or 20 or 30 or 40 - she’s going til June;
c) as the governor there has said, Obama will win regardless (has to say that, but even if he’s wrong, WV is no longer a core Dem state in pres. elections)
d) He needs to start - urgently - clawing back ground lost to McCain in the months wasted by Clinton not recognising she’s lost, so campaigning in MI and FL is way more useful.
140. Err, 2in should of course read “win”
140 - Reason I think that Obama should have spent some time in WV (or somewhere else in Applachia, for example southwest Virginia) because his weakness in Appalachia and other parts of rural US east of the Mississippi River was apparent early on.
West Virginia is not likely in play in November BECAUSE the Dems have ignored it since 2000, after taking it for granted for 60 years.
BUT Ohio is critical. And southeastern Ohio is as Appalachian - and rural - as West Virginia. Also resonnence for Missouri, Virginia and PA.
For those wondering it’s estimated that “the number paying tax at 40 per cent will have increased from just over two million in 1997 to almost 3.7 million by the end of this financial year”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1577014/Firm-finds-nearly-3.7m-pay-highest-income-tax.html
142. Well, fair enough - I just think the electoral battleground will look radically different after labor day, insofar as I don’t think Ohio will be key cos of the way other states will come into play; but I think it’s going Democrat anyway.
At the moment, we’re seeing it through a Dem-Dem prism, not a Dem-GOP prism. I think McCain’s a fundamentally flawed candidate; he’s running ahead of the GOP-lag at present, but he’s not had any fire turned on him. Hence the importance of getting Obama out of this stale primary irrelevance.
Complacent, maybe - but there’s no reason why Obama can’t start courting WV, just as he’ll be courting VA after the primary’s over.
You could make the same argument about KY - I don’t think he should go there either.
143 Occam’s Switchblade: NEVER disregard or otherwise dis Ohio!
145. I don’t expect they will disregard OH; I just don’t think it will be a make-or-break state. It wasn’t in either Clinton win; in fact, he barely carried it (which makes it’s love for Hillary even more bizarre).
Think how Sorkin drew the electoral map in his Santos win. Reckon it will look more like that than the 2004 map, though I don’t think it’ll hinge on one state; it’ll be a clear win.
147. Incidentally, seems like we’re the only two here at the moment SSI! We need a musical interlude between contributions!
140c - Governor quoted on CNN saying Obama will have difficulty winning in WV unless he campaigns extensively in rural areas of the state (which he won’t have time for). Obama leads McCain by only 1% among WV Clinton voters (36-35, with the rest planning to abstain). He’s also doing much less well than in other states even in demographic groups where he’s normally strong, such as the college educated (just a 6% lead).
A lot of this will no doubt be because he’s seen to have dissed WV, but it remains to be seen if he and Clinton can stage a love-in convincing enough to bring the Democratic coalition back together. They both seem to be working towards it, and although some of the Obama fans here were saying last week that he didn’t need to give anything to Clinton, I think he’s too intelligent not to. It’s still debatable what, though - VP still feels an odd slot for Clinton for lots of reasons, and rumour is that she’s reluctant to stay in the Senate (let alone lead it) after disappointing support from colleagues.
Like Jaz I don’t get Obama (don’t get me started on Ron Paul), but we Clinton fans will probably come round if our collective nose isn’t rubbed in it and a reasonable deal emerges.
WEST VIRGINIA PRIMARY
RALEIGH (Beckeley) southern WVa coalfield 18% pcts reporting
C 58%
O 54%
not too bad for Obama, there are a few Black votes down here
POCAHONTAS (Davis) eastern highlands 3% pcts
C 41%
O 53%
interesting result, could be students from Davis & Elkins College!
WEST VIRGINIA PRIMARY
OHIO (Wheeling) northern panhandle 15% pcts reporting
C 62%
O 30%
about what you’d expect for this industrial area wedged between western PA & northeastern Ohio
The much more exciting race tonight is a “real” one (ie a run-off, not a primary) for the Mississippi seat vacated by now Senator Wicker. Dems may well score a pickup.
148. I’m sure Obama will make a special trip to England to rub balm on your nose, Nick! As long as the balm doesn’t include her being on the ticket, you can have whatever you like, within reason!
You never got back to me about coming canvassing in Putney, by the way, Nick! We’d love to see you if there’s a night you’re twiddling your thumbs. Just hop on the district line to Putney Bridge!
148 - pre or post convention Ohio River Bus tour as in 1992 would make some sense. Ditto Michigan & Florida.