How a Tory 12% Crewe lead became 4%
May 13th, 2008
Dealing with the ex-Labour supporters who said they “didn’t know”
At last! We now have the full data from the ICM Crewe and Nantwich by-election poll and I have reproduced the most interesting feature above - how the original numbers produced a 12% lead with the Tories on 47% and what happened when they went through the “spiral of silence adjuster”.
For what has happened here is that ICM has followed its standard practice and has allocated half of the 2005 Labour voters now saying “don’t know” to the Tasmin Dunwoody figure.
Looking at the finer detail less than half of Labour’s general election voters last time say for certain that they will be sticking with the party next week. A significant proportion are voting Tory with a large number, the biggest proportion I have ever seen, simply saying “don’t know” or they refused to answer.
Like all ICM voting intention polls this was past voted weighted and only the preferences of those saying they were 7/10 or more on the certainty to vote scale were included.
I find it very hard looking at these numbers to say that it will be anything other than a Tory win.
UPDATE: ICM has changed its standard turnout questioning for this poll - perhaps a reaction to what happened in the London mayoral race. As well as the normal rate your chances of voting on a scale of 1-10 respondents were also asked about their attitudes to this by-election. “They were asked whether they felt that it is not really worth voting, or whether people should only vote if they care who wins or, alternatively, whether they felt that it is everyone’s duty to vote.
Weights were applied to each cell of a 30 cell matrix based on the above two questions. At one extreme a respondent replying that they are 10 out of 10 certain to vote and who thinks it is everyone’s duty to do so received a weight of 1, but a person who said they were only 5 out of 10 certain to vote and thought it only worth voting if people care who wins received a weight of 0.3.
The weights have been devised so that the effective sample size is reduced from 1,004 to 570 thereby assuming a real turnout figure among registered voters of approximately 57%. This may be higher than the actual turnout in the by election. But 100% turnout could not be achieved because of faults in the electoral register. Evidence also suggests that polls tend to interview slightly more voters than exist in the whole population.
ICM has thus changed slightly our method for calculating which people are most certain to vote. By using a two part question we hope, more accurately, to weight our vote intention calculations towards those who bother to vote, and away from those who declare party support but do not bother, in the event, to register that preference.
Mike Smithson
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Labour are doomed as there pyrmid of lies has collapsed. Tory Victory in C & N would mean a challange to Brown and a new Labour leader calling a general election as a matter of moral conviction.
Is it just me, or is the difference between the two sexes’ voting intentions rather more pronounced than usual?
“How a Tory 12% Crewe lead became 4%”
John Redwood escaped from his box ??
re 2. Yes - I think that Tasmin is attracting more female voters in the same way that Hillary does better with women.
3.
I tell you what talking about John Redwood:
David Miliband reminds me of John Redwood!
This is not a comment on Millibands appearance but his intelectual aloftness and general demeaner. I do think Miliband needs to get a better hair cut though! The one he has got reminds me of Butt head out of beavis and butthead!!!
1. No I don’t think so..’Labour leader’ and ‘conviction’ perhaps.
Surely, putting a damp finger in the air would be more reliable than this.
Fewer than 600 people were asked how they would vote in the by-election… 245 said they didn’t know… ICM chooses for them and publishes the results.
Shocking but unsurprising.
Who paid for this, and how much?
so - Darling’s announcement at 1530. is he going to u turn on the 10p tax thing? is everyone going to be compensated?
8. I wonder what tax policy will be next week?
Jack W @ 3, I appreciate that there is very little positive news for the LibDems which you can ‘big up’ or even comment on, but this constant childish sniping at all things Tory does make you sound like an 8 year old Mark Senior.
Can’t you just bite your lip occasionally or just mumble into your broth like other 105 year olds?
So it’s champagne next week by the looks of things
“How a Tory 12% Crewe lead became 4%”
They kept Gordon Brown away.
10. Don’t be daft - there’s a whole committee to keep busy all day.
If I read the number correctly 42% (245 out of a sample of 579) either don’t know or won’t say. This seem to me to be on the high side…..what is the typical consequence in elections with high don’t knows 14 days before polling?
47% to 35% of those who will say suggest that Labour will get a bit kicking, but there seems to be scope for the margin to run from a bare win to a total thrashing.
I am 70%+ certain to vote but not sure who I will vote for - lol.
12. ‘Committee’ is such an old-fashioned term - shouldn’t they be the ‘Jack W Crew’ or the ‘Jack W Massive’ ?
What chance a sizeable slice of the “won’t says” are former Labour voters who are going to vote Tory in the by-election but expect to revert to Labour in the General - so aren’t going to admit to voting Tory to a pollster. It’s as credible as the “spiral of silence”.
One-off ex-Labour shy Tories. If so, it’s a rout.
15 It can only be the Soames Massive….
The whole point about this poll is that the methodology used is irrelevant - its only purpose was to get some traction and do some damage, and in that it has succeeded beyond the expectations of those who commissioned it.
The headlines were written a few days ago, and the message has been enthusiastically repeated on the Tory leaflets: a Lib em vote is a wasted vote.
15 Alan J. Or the Jack W Crewe and Nantwich ??
12 Harry. Woof woof ….. walkies !!!!!
10. Simon. Oh I hadn’t realized this was now the official site of the Conservative Party !!
15 - Are you sure ‘Jack W’ is still a ‘committee’?
I was under the impression from what was said yonks ago, that the group thing was a temporary indulgence whilst Jack W was ‘indisposed’
Perhaps the 105 tag line is their combined age, all seven of them.
17 MM. How dare you critize the Conservative party and indeed the greater body of the party !!
…. Simon will want you carted off to the Lib Dem funny farm !!
Labour are doomed and the next leader of the Labour party one David Miliband reminds me of John Redwood! Cannot wait to see Miliband sing the redflag!
Probably knows as many words as as Redwood did of the welsh anthem! 
20. Or their combined mental age, all ten of them.
My view is that the don’t knows won’t make much difference to the final outcome and, unless there’s something dramatic, that the Tories will cruise to a comfortable victory.
Could we not introduce a set number of exclamation marks and emoticons per poster per month? Or better still, have an emoticon and exclamation mark trading scheme. Since I rarely use either, I would be happy to trade my allowance for an option on a job lot of commas and colons.
After this poll, the only way C&N gets remotely interesting is if someone can bring forward solid evidence of Tories switching to LibDems in the next few days. Otherwise, even if Tamsin Dunwoody joined the Kevin Phillip Bong club and polled “no votes at all…not a sausage….bugger all”, the Tories only lose by 2%. So just how do the LibDems switch Tories? Maybe “we aren’t Labour - but we aren’t Toffs either”?? Anyone think that works?
24. I think the Labour turnout will be absolutly appaling - the LD’s have a good chance of stealing second. If the BNP had run a candidate in C & N i should imagine Labour would be jostling for third. It has actually been a missed opportunity this by-election for the BNP because i should imagine the Crewe part of the seat would be quite fertile BNP ground in the current climate!
55% of C&N Labour voters say “Gordon Brown’s leadership will harm Labour’s chances of winning the by election”. 73% of all voters think this (see page 10 of the pdf)
Several interesting methodological points in the details, though I’m not sure what they signify except that the figures are more speculative than we may be assuming:
1. There is a more severe turnout figure than normal. To be counted fully, you have to say not only that you are certain to vote but that you think it’s everyone’s duty to vote. This is not a view that I hold, for instance (if someone doesn’t care about the outcome, I’d rather he didn’t come and muddy it with a random vote), so I wouldn’t be rated by the poll as a full Labour voter, though in practice I’d have to be dead not to vote in an election. The austere view that everyone jolly well should vote is I suspect probably biased to core voters of all parties and to middle-class voters.
2. There is a small shift in the past-vote adjustment to reflect what they think is a tendency for polls to overstate Labour.
3. The mystery about the GE voting intention (showing a bigger Tory lead) is not clarified - the table doesn’t give the question for this, and just tersely refers to GE voting intention. However, it does give the by-election question, and that doesn’t give candidates’ names, as some here speculated when the poll came out. *If* there is a tendency for people to vote Dunwoody out of habit when they see the ballot paper, it won’t be shown up by the poll.
The big if is of course the likely intentions of the 12% of don’t know Labour voters and the 4% won’t says. I tend to agree with Mike that these are quite likely to mostly stay at home, and the sense of momentum must be helping the Tories. But the three points above add elements of uncertainty, all of them probably slightly tending to reduce the headline Labour vote in the poll. test’s observation that Ealing South was actually a good Tory campaign but they underestimated the task of actually winning a core Labour seat is worth bearing in mind if you’re betting on this - test thinks it doesn’t apply this time, and he may be right, but…?
24. Mike is right - barring an earthquake it looks like a comfortable Tory win. But the scale of the win is important - a crushing margin will surely prompt defecations (or defections).
24. Mike is right - barring an earthquake it looks like a comfortable Tory win. But the scale of the win is important - a crushing margin will surely prompt defecations (or defections)…
What are the latest Betfair odds?
26. The Lib Dems could deploy their secret weapon: Nick Clegg!
He could do a rally like Neil Kinnock! Remember this seat voted Labour in 1992 after Kinnock and his rally. AWrriiggght! Nick Clegg! 
That picture of the Lib Dem candidate indicated to me that Clegg would like her to become lobby fodder in the division lobby!
I still doubt a Tory breakthrough to over 40% of the vote, but I do expect a collapse in the Labour vote. I expect the nominal Labour majority (discounting Dunwoodys personal vote) is a good 2,000 lower than the figures suggest. Maybe <5,000.
So, ıt will be a Tory victory, but not a particularly stunning one - not that that matters.
That being said, once C&N goes Tory, I don’t think it’ll revert back again until there’s another Labour government. It’s probably Tory for 10 years now.
In the long-term future, it’ll act as a key marginal.
29. But Crewe & Nant isn’t a core seat, is it Nick? We’ve established that over recent days.
29. E. S. was a safer Labour seat though!
Nick Clegg could go to the seat and boast of his conquests with “in excess of 30 lovers”. sure that would prove popular amongst the women voters…..
30 Yes inclined to agree as whatever Darling says in the statement in the house wont affect payslips for some months to come
Identifying low earners will be time consuming and virtually impossible, last yrs low earner to 5/4/08 wont necessarily be a low earner this tax year. The only fail-safe way to ensure everyone is compensated would be a complete u turn, which would be just as damaging as some cobbled together rescue. I think Labour are *** ked whatever they do.
31 - latest odds on BF:
Tories 1.19
Labour 6.0
LDS 30
Other 1000
36.
37. “I think Labour are *** ked whatever they do.”
Disgusting!
Who would want to w*nk Labour?
re 31 Tory 1.2 Lab 6. You could say that 1.2 offers generous return at very little risk. But surely Lab are localising this…talk to supporters about Dunwoodys and not much else. along the lines of ‘Do you really want Gwyneth turning in her grave and Tamsin losing her Mum and a by-election within a month’.
38. Cheers.
Worth a punt on beauties for Britain then?
40. Anyone hoping for a peerage?
A Clinton pledged delegate switches to Obama :
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/pledged-delegate-switches-to-obama.html
Surprised the Buggery thing did not raise it’s head in the 60’s?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_Macmillan
Early life
Macmillan was first educated at Summer Fields School and then at Eton but was expelled - according to Woodrow Wyatt - for buggery, though an alternative version is that he left due to illness.[3] He also attended Balliol College, Oxford, although he only completed two years of his classics degree before the outbreak of the First World War.
44 I like the bulletins - but didn’t you tell us about this a few hours ago?
46 - He’s old and may not remember!
25 Actually, Antifrank, the emoticons and smileys and things are very helpful. They enable me to ignore the posts instantly, without having to look at the name at the bottom.
46 footsoldier.
… Did I ?!?!? …. Old age !!
Jack W is 105.
43. Only to$$ers need apply!!
48. Conversly - i just ignore the bland longwinded bullshit without smilies!
45 - I misread that at first, and thought it said MacMillan was educated, not at Summer Fields, but at Summerhill!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Summer_Fields_School
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Summerhill_School
AS Neill, who founded Summerhill once said “I would rather Summerhill produced a happy streetsweeper than a neurotic Prime Ministers”. I visited a few years ago, and spent some time with the staff and pupils, and was extremely impressed.
I may be days and days late for this; but why is Nick Clegg like Neil Kinnock???
48 - wise words indeed, and may be a partial solution to the filtering that Jon wished for at 220 on the last thread.
UPDATE - ICM has changed its approach to turnout and I have added an update on the main article. We will see a week on Friday whether they are right.
Interesting update - but do they have any proof this is more accurate ? Did they also ask these questions on the mayoral poll but not use the 2nd question data ?
Interesting update Mike. Alas from a betting point of view this seems to squeeze the last of the volatility out of the market making it hard to produce a good return.
You guys might know I support Fulham. I have just reading Nick Robinson’s blog and I hear Roy Hodgson the Fulham Manager met Gordo last night at a No 10 reception. Well that’s us b*ggered next season
53. Clegg and Kinnock have the shared attribute of projecting a flawed image to the public within the first 12 months of their respected leadership. In Cleggs case he compacted into about 2 months!
Kinnock ruined his political image by falling into the sea and then not giving firm leadership on the miners strike.
Clegg did it the other way round, he started off by being undermined by his parliamentry party by refusing to follow his lead on the EU treaty vote. Clegg then made the mistake of bragging in a small cirulation rag about how many birds he boughed when he was younger!
Clegg and Kinnock have intertwinned fates in displaying a unappealing side to voters when it really mattered - first impression.
If you had a daughter would you really like to hear the firts time as a parent you met the daughters new boyfriend that he had shagged thirty birds before your daughter?
48/54. You can be easily fooled.
Smiley, smiley, smiley, smiley wıth wink, smiley, smiley, smiley wıth wink, smiley, smiley, smiley wıth wink, smiley, smiley, smiley wıth wink, smiley, smiley, smiley wıth wink, smiley, smiley, smiley wıth wink, smiley, smiley, smiley wıth wink, smiley, smiley, smiley wıth wink, smiley, smiley, smiley wıth wink,smiley wıth tongue sticking out, laughing smiley, laugh-out-loud smiley, smiley wıth tongue sticking out, laughing smiley, laugh-out-loud smiley, smiley wıth tongue sticking out, laughing smiley, laugh-out-loud smiley, smiley wıth tongue sticking out, laughing smiley, laugh-out-loud smiley, smiley wıth tongue sticking out, laughing smiley, laugh-out-loud smiley - chuckle chuckle hahaha haha ha chuckle chuckle hahaha haha ha chuckle chuckle hahaha haha ha chuckle chuckle hahaha haha ha chuckle chuckle hahaha haha ha - Exclamation mark Exclamation mark Exclamation mark Exclamation mark Exclamation mark Exclamation mark Exclamation mark Exclamation mark Exclamation mark Exclamation mark Exclamation mark Exclamation mark Exclamation mark Exclamation mark Exclamation mark Exclamation mark Exclamation mark Exclamation mark
Just seen the official candidates list for C&N and wonder if the petrol prices guy could top the also-rans?
58. Anyone know if Gordon is attending the uefa final tomorrow ? If he is I want to fedex him a St Petersburg shirt to wear.
36 I notice that the LibDems do far better with women voters than men. Maybe Nick Clegg is the answer - maybe there really are millions of women waiting to….be canvassed!
55. Doesn’t this look like a quick fix to try to avoid the errors of the London polls which predicted very high levels of turnout?
Superdelegate Congressman Joe Donnelly of Indiana endorses Obama :
http://thepage.time.com/obama-release-on-indiana-superdelegate-endorsement/
58 - He also met Avram Grant so pile all your cash on Man U!
Or, to put ıt another way….
61. Shame we can’t have spread markets on the % vote each candidate gets. He’d doubtless be a good buy.
62 So, Gordon attends….rioting in the stands….match abandoned, trophy not awarded to EITHER English team, all English teams thrown out of all competitons for the next ten years. That would be par for the course….
63. What Nick Clegg reaches parts no other leader can reach? - never, Nick Clegg only has a small majority. It was smaller at the last election after a surge to the Liberal democrats.
61. I hear Mark Senior is standing for the “Laugh-Out-Loud Party”…
I’m very much confused by the Darling ’statement.’ Is it just a declaration of intention or, indeed, a mini-budget?
I think we can all safely say before the Chancellor gets on his feet in the House that the measures will probably look pleasing to start off with but that on closer inspection, the whole thing will fall apart.
Goodness knows what he’s actually going to do. Every possible solution seems pretty awkward and expensive.
71 - I just wish someone would actually set up the “Standing at the back dressed stupidly and looking stupid party”!
My initial reaction to the ICM update is that if they change their methodology and the C to L gap is reduced, it would seem to be a move in the wrong direction. We will see how accurate ICM is in 9 days time.
Has the 10p tax rate compensation packege unraveled yet or do I have to wait till 3.31pm?
67 - sorry, you were saying? Didn’t catch you there.
62 - not even Gordon could jinx Zenit. They’re fast becoming my favourite team in football, I’ve made so much money on them in the UEFA Cup this year.
71
That reminds me, In am still waiting for Mark senior to answer a question yesterday. After Labour councillors defected to the Conservatives in Slough and Mark was critical of it, I asked Mark If he could show any similar critical post by him relating to a defection from Labour or the Tories to the Lib Dems……
73. Ivor Biggin - *NO* votes!!!
79 - You missed out the “I jest ye not”
77. Zenit have won 2/7 away games. 0-0 is the smart bet.
by the way, a typical incisive post by Ben Brogan on Caroline Flint and the 10p statement…
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2008/05/seatbelts-on-it.html
71. Haha! Just reminded me…
Hilarious scene:
“We’re for the COMPULSORY serving of Aspargus at Breakfast, free Corsets for the under-fives and the abolition of Slavery!!”
**CASINO ROYALE PREDICTION FOR DARLING STATEMENT AT 3.30PM**
Darling wıll announce full compensation for all losers (including pensioners and single earners) fully backdated to 7th April thıs tax year - but will not reinstate 10p tax band.
You heard it here first…
84. To be paid for by Northern Rock profits ?
71. They also offer a free novilty skeleton to each household to remind everybody of Ming!
The skeleton has an auidable musical chime “When i get older - loosing my hair!” 
85 and the royalties from Lord Levys book!
85. Paid for out of Gordons holiday fund for the next five years.
Because he’s nice like that..
In betting on C & N - especially if there is a size of majority market - I’d remind PBers that it is possible that the likely Tory victory will help get the Lab vote out. The remarkable INCREASE in votes for Ken on 1 May is testament to this. I don’t think this will happen in a by-election (too little at stake for these voters; too great an opportunity to protest). But it just might, if Lab play the Dunwoody card cleverly.
86.
89. Well the Tories get a win - win from either a tory victory or a Labour Victory. If the Tories win - that will be great for them. If Labour win then Brown stays and the Tories win a National Government Majority at the next election!
Where is Ave It?
89 - The increase in votes for Ken came in at about 0.5% on first prefs didnt it? Hardly remarkable.
I predict that when Darling stands up at 3.30, he will look at his notes, mutter under his breath “what a load of old bollocks….”, cast them to one side and leave the Chamber without saying another word.
It would be for the best….
Well we now have the Govt saying the “at best” the house price falls are 5% to 10%.
Last year I believe that Mark Senior disagreed with me on here that there was going to be a price crash this year.
Maybe time to reflect Mr Senior?
93. Compared to a Steve Norris to Boris Johnson increase in the Tory vote of 14% points and which must have been (what?) close to a 50% increase in votes cast last time??
87
Would rather read Levy’s book than Cherie’s.
In Speaking For Myself, Mrs Blair states that she conceived her son Leo at Balmoral because she had been too embarrassed to pack what she referred to as her “contraceptive equipment”.
Classy lady.
94 - I reckon that the phrase “right long-term decisions” will appear probably accompanied by a “stability” here and there.
97. Balmoral is hardly a spit and sawdust estblishment!
re93 Votes not vote share. Somehow Ken managed to get over a million first and second prefs; 200k UP on 2004 which in turn was a bit up on 2000.
Similarly, for example, I wouldn’t be surprised if Nick P got more votes next time than last time, though I’d be pleasantly surprised if that saved him.
Perhaps Mark hasn’t much confidence in government predictions HF. I am surprised you do.
97. I think it must have been a heat of the moment thing - maybe tony and cherie had been watching the corggies ………….. or the servants
I would have thought that Balmoral could provide the two* paper bags required for Tone to do the deed.
* Incase 1 falls off.
97 - Isn’t she a catholic? So she is sticking to papal teaching on contraception then, hmm.
100 - That is a function of turnout increasing from a derisory base.
Perhaps it is all done with mirrors or thermometers or something.
97 surely Cherie herself would be adequate ‘contraceptive equiptment’
Caroline Flint Cabinet meeting notes re housing market photograhed:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/00670/caroline-flint-big_670610a.jpg
94. Slight modification:
“I predict that when Darling stands up at 3.30, he will look at his notes, mutter under his breath “what a load of old bollocks…”, cast them to one side, flop out his John Thomas, theatrically urinate on the papers, pull a “Moon” at Gordon whilst saying; “Kiss my arse you miserly git - I quıt!” before pulling up his trousers, zipping up his flies and exiting the chamber to a round of applause and with a wry smile of satisfaction on his face.
100. I doubt it - Nick may have built up a personal vote but Nottingham Labour Council have just more than offset it with their commuter charge. Bet Nick wished he did not help that *famous* Labour victory in Nottingham last year. I think Nick will get it in the neck with car driving commuters into nottingham:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/nottinghamshire/7396478.stm
Looks like “The Mole” was right yesterday:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7397705.stm
Labour’s C&N chances will be significantly boosted if this is announced and publicised in the right way IMO.
re 100 of course it is - that’s the point: Lab vote can go up even as the tide rushes out. Didn’t save Ken and, in itself, won’t save Lab. But might well affect number of seats, etc
Darling to ‘fix the political problem’. Hmm, will he also fix the 5.3 million financial problems that have been created as a result of Gordon’s sleight of hand?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7397705.stm
86. 90. jokes at the expense of cancer sufferers - hilarious - not.
102 Martin, I would suggest that watching the Royal servants would generally not be the best manual for procreation!
111. The problem is that the government are damned if they do, damned if they don’t know. It’s identified that such plans will be ‘costly’ - so where does the money come from?
111. Problem for Labour is this is a *high political* move by the government - where the issue is resonating is in low politics. I don’t think high politics will change low politics at this stage. Equally people are not going to suddenly say Gordon Brown a great PM!
112 - Thats frankly unimportant if turnout went to 80% at the next general election Labours vote could increase in number of vote terms but collapse in share of vote terms. Share of vote is important as it is indicative regardless of turnout.
114. He looked like a skeleton before he had it. It is supposed to be in remission or did the LD’s lie about the real reason why they deposed him? Mind you they didn’t broadcast that CK was partial to booze either.
re 110. Oh yes, thanks for that news.
But well done Nottingham City Council. It’s bold and progressive (see debates in recent days on ‘what can Labour do?). If Tories promise to scrap it and car drivers turn Tory, so be it. At least it’s going down with purpose and something for troops to fight for. (And, anyway, given the rather odd boundaries in Nottingham, could well help that Labour Group at expense of those around, including Nick.)
120. Yes, but it’s not much thanks for him helping them in the elections previously is it. Really that sort of policy is a beggar thy neighbour policy as it is taxing people outside the authority!
I will never forget when she turned on the waterworks for her Peter Foster speech
‘My immediate instinct when faced with the questions from the Mail on Sunday 10 days ago was to protect my family’s privacy, and particularly my son in his first term at university, living away from home’.
She talks about privacy and then a few years later we hear that Leo came in to this world due to a lack of contraceptive equipment. New Labour make me puke.
73.”I just wish someone would actually set up the “Standing at the back dressed stupidly and looking stupid party”!”
Worth noting that the candidate in the Blackadder episode was wearing UKIP’s colours!
O/T If he lasts until the 14th June, Gordon Brown will no longer be the shortest serving post-war Prime Minister, and will overtake Alec Douglas Home. He has to last until the 5th October if he’s to overtake the Earl of Rosebery, however. Anthony Eden will be overtaken 24th March next year.
At this moment in time, Brown has outlasted the Earl of Bute, Earl of Shelburne, the Duke of Devonshire, Andrew Bonar Law, Viscount Goderick and George Canning.
122. I don’t think some of the things she did like giving after dinner speeches for a fee etc were a terribly good idea while her husband was still in No.10.
Even if Darling did the unthinkable this afternoon and reinstated the 10p band, all Labour would have done is stopped punching poor people in the face. These same punched people will still remember that they have already been punched by the Clunking Fist, who thought he could treat the core vote with contempt because they would never vote for anyone other than Labour - whilst Labour used the money raised from the punched poor to chase the votes of the Tory middle class - Toffs, even.
Mmmmmmmmm….the voters have been in an unhappy and abusive relationship for the past ten months. They will not lightly forget it. Ask yourself this - if your partner punched you in the face tonight, would things return to the way they were uin your relationship simply because they didn’t punch you tomorrow?
124. But even if he surpasses Eden: Brown will not have won an election as Eden did. Eden whent straight to the country - I bet Brown wishes he had not bottled it!
Interesting debate at The Times, re the Oxford Street slaying - where the victim was stabbed and then has his throat slashed, in front of hundreds of shoppers.
According to the Times: ‘One witness, who did not want to be named, said: “I just heard the screaming and then saw a couple of black guys run past us.”’
This is in stark contrast to the Guardian report, which quoted the same witness, but put it like this: “I just heard the screaming and then saw a couple of guys run past us.”
At what point does Guardian-style “sensitivity” turn into outright censorship, and a pathetic and blinkered attempt to deny the blatantly obvious?
It’s stuff like this that is making people despise the Left. Everyone Has Had Enough.
128. why don’t you say what you mean and tell us what Everyone Has Had Enough Of
123 “Worth noting that the candidate in the Blackadder episode was wearing UKIP’s colours!”
ONG, in Art Criticism, that is called “pre-figurative symbolism”, i.e. showing something that is going to happen later.
129. What do you think I mean?
122. Cherie is an incredibly odd woman. In many ways I respect her for not wanting to fit the mould of “Downing Street wife;” refusing to be cowed by the press; carving out a successful law career for herself….
But…. but….
For all her claims to this, she’s cynically exploited her position as wife of the PM for years, so this veneer of independent-career-woman is just that - a veneer. She also shares perhaps the most awful aspect of her husband’s personality (aside from country-invading meglomania, perhaps) - the need to be treated and seen as a ‘celebrity.’
Some of the exerpts from her book read like the autobiography of a movie star. It’s all about who you know, tedious namedropping, wishing to be ’sensationalised’ about in the tabloids. It’s very crass and not something you’d expect of an independent, strong, classy woman. Her husband is the same. Wanting to mix with rock stars and holidaying in Cliff Richard’s villa. It’s just showy and tacky; and not befitting of a statesman. Just goes to show he (Blair) and Berlusconi were like peas in a pod.
111,117. If Darling announces some complex scheme whereby tax credits and winter fuel allowances are used to compensate losers it could all fall apart rapidly.
This is low doorstep politics. “It is wrong to tax the poor to pay for middle-income and high-income tax cuts”, “Has your pay / pension gone down?”…compensation via some complex scheme with only partial take-up just won’t cut it.
I hope for Darling’s sake the scheme is watertight as both Field and Grayling will be pouring over the fine print….It won’t look good at C&N if it collapses as the last suggested compensation scheme did.
Tories still a safe bet at C&N
127. Well Eden, for all his faults, had a little of that something which Brown blathers about but most definitely does not have - ‘courage’.
Here is the quote from the Guardian, just to prove the point:
“One witness, who declined to be named, said: “I just heard the screaming and then saw a couple of guys run past us. The ambulance arrived and they got to work on him. It looked very serious.”"
http://tinyurl.com/4l4krs
I’d love to know what went through the Guardian writer’s head when he decided to self censor. Here he has an eyewitness, who says he saw “two black guys” apparently running away from the scene of the crime.
This is crucial evidence, and might, of course, lead to the indentification of these murderers. But the Guardian writer preferred to cleave to his puerile notions of political correctness, and omit the word “black”, just in case it might offend someone (who?).
Lower down on the writer’s list of priorities, compared to polishing his liberal conscience, is the chance of actually catching the alleged killers.
Disgraceful. The Guardian goes from bad to obscene. The British Left is lost in a moral wilderness of its own creation.
We all know whats going to happen when Darling speaks. A load of complex bullsh1t and hand wringing about taking children out of poverty and no real compensation. They have run out of money and cant do anything.
135
Luckily the ES is happy to report the facts on London crime rather than the Guardian fascist left version.
Police hunt Turkish teenager for Jimmy Mizen murder
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23484287-details/Police+hunt+Turkish+teenager+for+Jimmy+Mizen+murder/article.do
135. so you think that a crucial witness could identify the killer - if only he was told in advance, through the national press, that the killer was black?
would that stand up in court?
Where is Ave it, Casino (92)?
Alive and kicking.
And posting sometimes as Martin Day.
And at other times as Casino Royal.
They will probably restore the 10p band, Gordon will have a grin like a Cheshire cat (Cheshire, how appropriate!), and they’ll make up the shortfall by screwing us all with some more stealth taxes.
That’s the New Labour way.
What Darling should announce is that he’s taking an axe to the Welfare Budget, and restoring the 10p band with the proceeds.
OT. Last year I took 10-1 with Hills on Lab losing a by-election. It was part of a market on what would happen first during GB’s Premiership. I can’t remember what the other options were or whether any of the other options have actually happened.
Can anyone who took the 10s help
136
If the PSBR is 40 + billion, in Labours eyes whats the difference (politically) if its £45 billion. I suspect a reintroduction of the 10p rate and EEESNI for those earning above the UEL to be increased by 1% or so. Whatever it takes to cover the cost… That should fix it.
Mike ran an article recently when Raith Rovers looked good for the playoffs - but they didn’t make it so the bet is still on I presume.
If Darling actually restored the 10p rate, what would it say about the government’s economic policy? Not a lot I’d imagine! What remains of this government’s lingering economic reputation would be shot to pieces I’d imagine.
Latest comedy of errors from the Bean Government:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7398244.stm
Caroline Flint’s confidential briefing notes photographed as she walks into No 10!
(I’ll forgive her anything though…)
133. I’d add to that that Labour’s relationship with the business community - which has been very good for the last 10 years - is starting to fall to pieces.
First of all we had the non-doms and CGT changes; now the government is likely to ask business to pick up the tab (through the minimum wage) for a political cock-up - employers are not impressed.
As the Labour left and unions profit from a)New Labour difficulties and b)Labour’s lack of cash, it points to an increasingly fractious relationship between the government and employers.
This is probably quite good for shoring up the core vote, but is not likely to play well with swing voters.
145 - should’ve gone to Specsavers….
145. I won’t. Miserable bossy woman and her stupidly enviromentally damaging eco-towns.
I hope her constituants boot the old trout out.
143. Thanks for that. I was out of the country when Mike did that thread.
138. Why does the Guardian say “two guys were running away” - surely that is sexist? To presume the sexuality of the alleged assailants is relevant to the crime? Why should the writers mention the gender, just because it might help identify the murderers?
Why doesn’t the Guardian say “two human beings were seen running away”. But then maybe that’s speciesist. Maybe the Guardian should say “two bipedal organisms, allegedly carbon based, were seen running away”.
Lefties like you have just lost all contact with common sense. You are, in fact, a f***ing idiot.
No sorry, you are a hominid-type primate, of apparently lesser intelligence, last seen running away from reality.
Does anyone otrher than the Government and the BBC say Darling ‘has sorted it’?
One of the key factors of the Mayoral election was the impact of increased turnout in the ‘outer doughnut’ more Tory-inclined boroughs. Does anyone with a good knowledge of Crewe and Nantwich think this could be a factor here as well, with increased (traditionally pro-Tory) Nantwich turnout swamping reduced (trad pro-Labour) Crewe turnout?
137, 138, 150 - Context is important. I’m not convinced race identification in newspaper crime reports plays much part in crime detection. It is, however, relevant that a suspect is Turkish if there are fears that he might abscond to northern Cyprus. It is also potentially relevant that a suspect is black if it ties into a wider worry about knife crime in a particular section of society. As you can see from the end of this article, in the right context, the CRE agreed also:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2007/apr/12/ukcrime.race
138 Yes.
Any information that holds up to scrutiny….that is released to the press… that leads to more information ….that can be held up to scrutiny…is just fine.
151 - maybe the Government will give a free tractor to those affected by the changes, as compensation?
Thus killing two birds with one stone.
150. Any useful witnesses would have seen what went on, and hopefully acted appropriately by passing on useful info to the police. For a national newspaper it is a matter of taste what details to include. There are all sorts of reasons why one might want to censor this detail, which was after all just added by some punter in the street - it could have been “Emily P-C” for all you know. For example, what if a court case failed because the jury had all been led to believe (from the press) that the assailant must have been black?
Your assumptions about my own political viewpoint says a lot about your real reasons for posting this tripe - if you were thinking from a moderate rather than extreme point of view, you would be unlikely to assume that everyone who didn’t agree with you was a “leftie”
Latest Rasmussen Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 46% .. Obama 47%
Clinton 42% .. Obama 51%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Whatever Darling says it won’t make any difference because the anger over the 10p rate…..what was it?….ah yes ‘dissappeared like a summer storm’* before the local elections.
*Quote from Nick Palmer. I like to give credit where credit is due.
his first sentance included “millions of children out of pverty’ what a clueless prat
From Nick Robinson Blog:
“It is to be increases in tax allowances which will affect pay packets from September and will be paid for by greater borrowing.”
Greater borrowing? Wow, what a brilliant idea! I can not see any negative effects from this…
So Gordon wrong footing of Cameron is costing nearly £3 billion. Hardly prudent is it!!!
Obama nets another two SD’s - former Colorado Govenor and DNC Chair Roy Romer and Mayor of New Orleans Ray Nagin :
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/
156. What about the relatives of this murdered guy. How do they feel?
It is possible someone might have seen two black guys sprinting up Bayswater an hour later. He might not have connected this with the