So the Democratic race goes on
May 14th, 2008
But do these final primaries matter at all?
After her expected huge victory in the predominantly white working class state of West Virginia Hillary Clinton was in upbeat mood overnight and made it clear that she is still striving to become the next president.
This is her biggest victory so far yet the mood of the commentators was that it was irrelevant. Only 28 delegates were at stake, the outcome had been widely predicted, and Obama’s quiet campaign amongst the super delegates continues to pay dividends.
As the Associated Press analysis put it - West Virginia does not solve her central problem: ” Since her loss in North Carolina and narrow victory in Indiana last Tuesday, the New York senator has been battling the growing realization that her once-formidable candidacy may have finally run out of steam. Saddled with more than $20 million in debt and struggling to fund the remaining contests, Clinton has watched a steady stream of superdelegates migrate toward the Illinois senator despite his apparent problems winning key constituencies.”
One thing she has had to do is to be more guarded in her attacks on Obama. For the one way of forcing the party establishment to step in is if her effort is seen to be damaging their overall interests.
In the betting on who wins in November Obama is still the clear favourite.
Mike Smithson
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Mike,
Its getting so boring.
Its over, fini, kaput!!
Dead Parrot!!
Malcolm
WEST VIRGINIA PRIMARY
not quite over, just checked my old home county, and one of my old teachers/coaches is getting reelected to the school board.
MISSISSIPPI CD 1 SPECIAL ELECTION RUNOFF
With only one precinct left to report:
CHILDERS (D) 53.6%
DAVIS (R) 46.4%
As previously discussed, methinks this is the big result of the night.
She won’t go while she is winning and this is her biggest victory percentage wise to date. CNN has her currently 39% up. Pity in a decimal culture she couldn’t make it 40% for the head lines.
My water tells me that when she finally does go she’ll suspend her camapign and then spend the months till denver digging on obama just in case. I also expect more articles on the “Hillary Democrats”.
test
4. Not true. She won by 44%, 70-26, in Arkansas.
1
Hillary is not a Dead Parrot, she is a Living Machine!
She’ll always haunt you and the Democrats, always! — she’ll be back, again and again…
OREGON PRIMARY
as of May 12, ballots returned = 18% of all ballots issued
Since final turnout by Oregon primary day May 20 will likely be somewhere around 50%, this means that about one-third of the actual primary votes are already in the can.
with 73% reporting shes picked up 103k in the PV.
6. OK
She now needs undecided supers to go to her four to one. Not. Gonna. Happen.
WEST VIRGINIA PRIMARY
don’t think Shadsy & Co. has this race on their radar screen, but
State Commissioner of Agriculture with 63% pcts reporting
Democratic primary:
Gus Douglass 62%
Wayne Casto 38%
Douglass is now serving his 10th four-year term as Ag Commissioner.
When I was a boy, when he campaigned for office he used to pass out free seed packets with his name on them. Very effective!
From the last thread:
If Sea Shanty Irish is about, I’d like his take on the Senate elections this year. To my mind a good Democratic year could see potential pickups in:
Virginia
New Hampshire
Colorado
North Carolina
Minnesota
Oregon
Texas
Maine
Idaho
That would make 9 pickups and, with the two independents, give the Democrats their 60. Thoughts?
12 - Pretty amazing when you think of it, a guy who was first elected to statewide office when LBJ was elected president in his own right back in 1964, is still holding the same office today, 44 years ago. And is running hard for another term.
Of course one of the more effective members of Congress is Rep. John Dingell (D-Michigan) who was elected in a special election in 1955, succeeding his father, who was elected in 1932.
Even the Dunwoodie’s would think that impressive!
13 - Easy to list, and all doable. But very tough to achieve, esp. toward the bottom of your list.
BUT in a good Democratic year, should see some unlikely gains, esp. if the top of the ticket has coattails.
13 - Personally am most dubious that Dems will take Idaho or Texas (though nuts to crack), Maine (versus superior Lincoln Chaffee in a dress) or Minnesota (funnymen make rotten candidates).
16 - with respect to Minnesota, perhaps Boris has proven me wrong!
So what if Cllinton won WVa with 230% of the votes? That’s a bit like Labour winning Bootle at 5 o’clock in the morning on the day after the 1992 general election.
CNN now has her 41% up and a 125k boost in PV with 84% reporting.
11 Socrates She now needs undecided supers to go to her four to one. Not. Gonna. Happen.
Only if you believe the committments of the “decided” supers.
The elected delegates count is going to be close enough to put this in the superdelegates hands
The fundamental questions for the superdelegates are
i) Do you think Obama can win in November (currently the answer is yes but things can change…)
ii) If not, can we get away with subbing in Clinton or do we have to go ahead with Obama regardless.
7 Philippe
She has been dead to me for a long time. Both Clintons have. The Clintons only had an aura whilst they were winning. Ask the Tories [Corporal faction] in the UK. They seemed unassailable whilst winning. Then it was the NuLabour faction under The Liar; the natural party of government. Then what about the Republicans? Rove said the Democrats would be out of office for a generation.
And what about Mississippi tonight? Three out of the four congressional districts are represented by Democrats.
Events, dear boy.
Predicting the future is stupid, unless of course you have the gambling bug, then its crazy. When I told everyone that Obama would be the candidate it was based on math, not on wishing and hoping or reading tea-leaves.
The Clintons have lost the plot. They are nearly 20 years out of date in their vision and style. H Rodham Clinton deserves to appear in a Python sketch and she doesn’t need to do a silly walk either, just lie on her back in a cage.
Malcolm
Up with the lark here in Constantinople, and immediately off-topic.
Just catching up with the government’s tax disaster sidestep. Not a glowing verdict from the Guardian:
“Crude, simple and costly, yesterday’s tax cut epitomises the brand of economic populism that Mr Brown has, over two decades, defined himself against. The parallel plunge in Labour’s standing and the economy might make this tack the government’s best shot… There will, however, come a time when the splurge of extra borrowing will have to be repaid.”
Hm. I can’t quite see why lefties were so glowingly happy yesterday. They were like someone who has just shot themselves in the foot hopping with delight, on realising the other foot still works.
I reckon this maneuver will notch Labour up a point or two. Enough to win C&N? Maybe, who knows.
Will it benefit them significantly in the polls, longterm?
Nope. The fatal image of the government ss incompetent ditherers is actually reinforced by all this, not reversed.
Number of commentators from WV tonight mentioned that both Bill & Chelsea Clinton barmstormed the Mountain State for Hillary.
However this turns out, think that I definitely want Bill & Chelsea out beating the bushes where they will do good for the Democrats this fall.
For Bill, that will be the rural beat that he’s been working so hard & so well for Hillary for the last weeks & months.
For Chelsea, its anywhere her little heart desires. To me she’s the SuperClinton . . . and without downside.
Indeed, to quote a great American, I pity the fool who disses her!
11 PaulM
**The elected delegates count is going to be close enough to put this in the superdelegates hands**
Of the last 33 superdelegates H Rodham Clinton has picked up just 4!!
She has no chance of winning. Please don’t encourage gamblers to see some small chance that she’ll be the candidate. By doing so you are encouraging them to throw their money away. One of her few vociferous supporters here in ND told me today that she needs to get out of the race for the sake of the party.
I disagreed, she needs to go with a whimper, not a bang, and needs to bow out gallantly after the final primaries fix their inevitable nails in the casket. That way all her most vicious critics will be able to say nice things about the ex-champ as she goes down to a bloody defeat by the rank-outsider.
Malcolm
dont care about the Dem primary any more. Yawn.
Will there be a post-bribe c&n poll?
23
That might indeed be good for the Dems in the fall.
On the other hand: “Obama only wins 53% of WV DEM PRIMARY VOTERS in a matchup with McCain.”
WV is for McCain to lose!
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Nzk2OTNjMTZkNjAzMjQwNzBmY2NiMmI0MzcwNDY4ZDU=
though I think she hopes toforce a vp slot out of Barack
24 Malcolm
I wouldn’t trust the committments from any of these superdelegates. They aren’t binding. It really doesn’t mean much beyond people jumping on and off bandwagons.
I’m a gambler myself and still have bets outstanding on Clinton albeit at long odds, which I have not yet cut my losses on.
Hillary’s margin will probably be over 41%… : http://www.politico.com/
I love this headline on RCP:
Hillary Wins - Does Anybody Care?
27 test though I think she hopes toforce a vp slot out of Barack
hahahahahahahahahaha
I don’t think she would accept it even if it were to be offered, which seeing that Michelle Obama would rather drink battery acid than see it happen has about a 0.0000000000000001% chance of eventuating.
30 — ‘about a 0.0000000000000001% chance of eventuating.’
Are you offering?
Vice Presidential Picks
DEMOCRATS
Am thinking more and more that the best option for Obama may turn out to be Ted Strickland, Governor of Ohio, with following Veep appeal
-popular gov of key swing state
-rural roots from Portsmouth in southeastern Ohio
-some regional appeal in WV, western PA & Michigan
-would help ticket with rural, eastern, bluecollar voters
-tough partisan campaigner, which is key Veep role
On the other hand, Strickland has zero defense or foreign policy cred. Which means that the right candidate with those credentials could edge out the Buckeye Gov on points.
REPUBLICANS
Am also becoming more convinced that the logical choice for McCain is Mike Huckabee.
Can already hear the howls of disagreement from respected (or restricted) pbers. But here is my logic:
-hard core ideological Republicans may be disgruntled, but this bunch tends to be perfect voters, they cannot help themselves. So really no need to caitter to the outright crazoids.
–BUT the religious conservatives are a whole different story, because the thing that made the Christian Coalition so revolutionary back in the 1990s, was that it turned out folks who were NOT perfect voters
–plus even the religious conservatives are tired of mothing but social issues, they want to broaden their horizons, and Huckabee is perfect for this, because while he’s orthodox on the social stuff he’s not a one trick pony
–as for the moderate GOPers and swings, Americans are much more innured to holy roller politicos and their rhetoric that are Brits; as long as Huckabee’s not to shrill and he’s generally not, then not too many people are going to lose sleep over the prospect that the Veep doesn’t believe in the Theory of Evolution
I admit it: I really do not understand why Clinton’s stock went down 0,7 point today! :
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=177134
21 Malc She has been dead to me for a long time.
A very succinct comment. The living dead!
Just one very quick glance at the Hillary poster which heads the previous thread reminded me of Nazi-style artwork. And bearing in mind the racist undertone to her campaign, it’s very revealing.
Any politician who sets out to appeal to low level hatred and fear in that manner that deserves…..
It’s a very, very sad situation that a Democrat politician in the USA in these times can stoop to such activity. In 2008, for God’s sake! God forgive her.
32
Huckabee?
Not possible — because of his cheerleading of the Flat Tax.
34
You are so full of it!
She only stated a fact — about the WHITE blue-collar voters prefering her to Obama — a fact that was relayed by every network.
35 - flat tax not a deal breaker for a Veep. They are allowed to have curious hobbies.
Granted, Cheney pushed the envelope when it turned out his hobbie was waterboarding. Which makes the Huck’s oddities seem endearing by comparision . . .
MISSISSIPPI CD 1 SPECIAL ELECTION
with all precincts reporting:
Childers (D) 53.7%
Davis (R) 46.3%
And on Haley Barbour’s watch - beautiful!
I hope Bob Barr will have a lot of mediatic coverage.
Viva libertarianism: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-982066043918137958&q=Bob+Barr&ei=G24qSJrDL4Xg-wH_yMzYCQ
36 - Clintons have been playing the race card every way possible post-New Hampshire. Not exactly a secret.
After all, everything that comes out of her lips these days is focus-group tested code. Her problem is that its so blindingly obvious, ditto her no-stop attempts to restrip the playing field and rearrainge the goal posts.
39 - Glad to see Barr in the race, good “none of the above” option for disgruntled rightwingers.
Even got him a slogan:
“Bob Barr: too nutty for Geogria, but YOU are going to love him”
34. Just one very quick glance at the Hillary poster which heads the previous thread reminded me of Nazi-style artwork. And bearing in mind the racist undertone to her campaign, it’s very revealing.
Any politician who sets out to appeal to low level hatred and fear in that manner that deserves…..
Actually, I rather liked it, for the opposite reason. It reminded me of Soviet Realism art rather than Nazi art - and it looks uplifting and enlightening rather than oppressive. It’s just a pity it wasn’t a picture of Obama instead of Hilllary.
The Old witch at last is now dead
But Barack must not lose his head
He must fight again
Against John McCain
Or make way for Al Gore instead
41
HAHAHA!
40
Playing the Race Card in the political game is opportunistic, sure — yet it is not Racist, isn’t it?
WEST VIRGINIA PRIMARY
Pop Quiz: Who is the biggest vote getter in the WV Primary 200*?
34 Stephen
I agree wholeheartedly. As I posted elsewhere the Clintons only sing when they are winning. This defeat will show them up for what they are. I’ll never forgive Jefferson Clinton for what he did to the kids in Iraq with the sanctions. Infanticide/genocide on a huge scale - 500,000 dead from hunger and lack of drinking water, and kids under the age of five.
Sure Saddam had some responsibility, but no sanctions and no deaths.
The Clintons are self-serving scum and need to be kicked out of the party. God forgive me for my anger but I’ll never forget those kids and the price they payed for Clinton trying to be a Republican. Now his wife walks down the same badly lit road stepping on anything decent and pandering to people’s worst instincts.
Malcolm
45
GOP or DEMS?
47 Period.
Need to head to bed, so will give the answer:
Top WV votegetter yesterday was US Senator Jay Rockefeller, followed closely by Gov. James Manchin. Hillary is number 3.
BTW, Barrack Obama got more votes getting stomped in the Democratic primary, than John McCain got winning the GOP primary. On the other hand, the guy who lost the Democratic gubernatorial primary against Gov. Manchin also got more votes than McCain.
I’d suggest to Billary this song before and after her Kentucky victory speech next week: http://youtube.com/watch?v=TR5Qo4Pnc94
I’m playin it, yet I aint racist!
42 - Personally like the iconic Hillary poster. Here in the colonies, we call the style Art Decco. But really same idea as Socialist Realism & Iconic Nazism.
42 - Personally like the iconic Hillary poster. Here in the colonies, we call the style Art Decco. But really same idea as Socialist Realism & Iconic Nazism.
Hello everybody
I was at Crew yesterday. I was leafeltting just outside of the centre of Crewe, real labour teritory. On the poster front other than Badger Ave very little poster activity in this area by anyside, although most that were up were Labour. Badger Ave heavily Labour and driving to the motorway there were lots of Vote Timpson posters. Very little lib dem posters or literature seen in comparison from other by elections. Anyway to work now, then council chamber than tonight Crewe again.
FYI, from Parkersburg Sentinel, May 10
Bill Clinton stumps for wife in Ripley
RIPLEY — Approximately 500 people attended the “Solutions for America” event in Ripley Friday night as former President Bill Clinton tried to provide the “ammunition” to win voters for his wife, Hillary Clinton.
Lines began to form outside the Ripley Fire and Rescue Station more than two hours before the event was scheduled to begin at 7:30 p.m. And crowds waited nearly an hour and a half after being allowed in the station for the former president to arrive from his previous engagement in St. Albans.
However, their spirits did not dampen as they waited even as the rain began to fall outside.
“Aren’t you glad you’re going to get to vote and your vote will count?” Clinton asked as he took the stage, his voice at time hoarse from touring the state during the past couple of days. He said despite what polls and the media say about his wife’s chances of obtaining the Democratic nomination for president, once West Virginia and “your neighbors in Kentucky vote,” we will be living in a new world.
“If somebody tells you you can’t win, it’s because you can,” he said.
Clinton then provided those in attendance the “ammunition” they need to win over undecided voters for Hillary Clinton. He said his wife is “in it for you” and wants government to “work the way this crowd looks” — for people of all ages, races and incomes. Clinton said the presidential nominee believes in “shared prosperity and shared responsibility.”
Rebuilding the middle class, allowing the lower class an opportunity to obtain that level and reclaiming the future for the youth are “her promise to you,” Clinton said.
During the speech, which lasted just more than an hour, he touched on the issues of job creation, energy, the fuel crisis, health care, education, the economy and the war on terror. Clinton said Hillary is the only candidate with both long- and short-term solutions to the gasoline problem. Among her solutions are a halt to putting fuel in the reserves and diverting it directly to refineries, dropping the fuel tax and allowing gas companies to pay into it and investigating “illegal manipulations” which have caused prices to soar.
Clinton noted the importance of $10,000 credits for purchasing new battery-run cars, which get between 70 and 100 miles per gallon of gas, and putting money into research to more rapidly produce lithium batteries to operate the cars.
Hillary Clinton also wants to find a way to take the carbon monoxide out of coal, he said. Doing so would allow West Virginia to export coal and technology and “generate a whole new industry for America.”
He called the health care situation in America an economic problem as well as “a huge moral problem.” He said Hillary wants to make the same health care provided federal employees and elected officials available to the public.
“If you want to stop making excuses and start making progress, vote for Hillary,” he said.
Clinton said Hillary also wants to start bringing the troops home from Iraq. He said her experience with military matters is greater than his was when he was elected as she has served on the committee to help modernize the military. He also highlighted the fact that she has gained endorsements from two former Joint Chiefs of Staff.
“Literally, she is the best change maker I’ve ever known,” he said as he urged voters not to forget her on Tuesday.
Following his speech, Lucy Harbert, Ravenswood mayor, said she thought “everything he said was pretty much right on the spot. It goes to prove if you want a job done right, it’s got to be done by a woman.”
Carolyn Rader, Ripley mayor, said Clinton’s visit was “another exciting time in Ripley. It goes to show in a small town everybody counts.” She said after his speech that Ripley is a place where presidents feel welcome, referring to President Bush’s visit in 2002.
Young people also reacted to Clinton’s visit. Ten-year old Riley Keaton and 11-year- old Isaac Burch, both of Spencer, found things they agreed and disagreed with. Keaton said he agrees No Child Left Behind needs to be eliminated as it “causes states to lower their standards.” While Burch said he disagrees with bringing the military home so quickly, he did agree with Clinton’s comments on the amount of money America has borrowed from China over the years. “They could ask for that back anytime,” he said.
Phyllis Casto, a Hillary supporter, said she thinks “she’s a very intelligent person” who will think through her actions. She said Clinton’s visit was exciting for the city of Ripley and area residents.
Ripley was Clinton’s final stop Friday in West Virginia. Other stops were Madison, Williamson, Wayne and St. Albans.
55 - Sorry for such a long post. But very interesting.
For one thing, not an unkind word about Obama. And great stuff for the Democrats this Fall.
33: “I really do not understand why Clinton’s stock went down 0,7 point today!”
Philippe, you seem to be consistently underestimating how sophisticated the markets are. If it’s clear that someone is going to win a race, their victory is going to be included in the price before the race happens. In this case, the polls were all indicating a massive Clinton lead, and if anything the actual lead was slightly lower than expected, so the price dropped a bit.
This is why Hillary’s price didn’t move much after Pennsylvania, where you expected it to double. (Hillary did a bit better there than we’d have expected from the final polling, which is why it edged up a couple of %.) Seriously moving the price required something to happen that the markets hadn’t already assumed and priced in - like when Wright did his press conference between Pennsylvania and Indiana. At which point Hillary’s price nearly _did_ double…
I agree with Posting 1. All over. let’s move on, the Childers result much more important.
According to Democratic Watch Obama now 12.5 super delegates ahead, 6 in total yesterday with 2 add ons. At this rate of daily progress he will have nearly 350 by the end of the month, which should give him his 2025.
Oregon latest poll he leads 55-35, on this basis he will have about 50 delegates from next Tuesday and will then be able to claim a pledged delegate victory.
Interesting that James Carrville now expects him to be the nominee and will be sending him money if he is.
54 — interesting she is campaigning on the ishoos.
The Sun headline seems to have got it spot on “the Bribe Minister”, and did anyone see John Snow and then Paxo rip into Alistair Darling last night ?
56
Man, it did raise after Penn — from 16 to 25!
Here is a thought. After the re check of the Ohio vote and the resulting movement of almost 50, 000 votes from Clinton to Obama,
1.5%, how much can we rely on the elctronic counting system.
As you will recall the Governor ordered a HAND recount of seven precincts because of some concerns, and the end result!.This might evcn change the delegate count for Ohio.
Taliking about Oregon understand 200,000 have voted already, it is almost a full postal ballot.
The Government here needs to think about all this.
Perhaps we should go over to a full postal ballot, if Oregon have found out how to do it without fraud.
Mike, you might think about this as a thread.
60
Wright was to be expected — it was doomed to snowball — and the guy will come back! — for he is writing… a book!
62
As well as Ayers, and Rezko, and …. and …
I have just seen this on Politics Home. Is it a spoof or would Gordo really stoop that low. Interesting it says say that it gives Gordo the chance to be more popular than Alan Sugar. Surely it cannot be true….
http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5g5hu1nposLb_Dm_vHJJlP7p04MLQ
64. Instead of shouting ‘you’re fired’ he could just throw mobile phones at them instead….
Woah some new levels of Clinton hatred. Calm down, chaps.
I don’t see why she’s going on to be honest but the idea that she has no right to continue is ludicrous. The Lib Dems are allowed to contest general elections. Hell, we even let Brian Paddick continue in London when he had squawked his last. It’s called Democracy! If every person in the remaining states suddenly backs Hillary she wins.
Of course it can’t really happen but the last few weeks have proved the longer McCain is shut out of the debate the more the democrats gain momentum. By June the winning Democrat (Obama) will have a ten point lead over McCain.
So what’s the problem?
dave(s)@61: Have you got a link about the Ohio vote recheck thing?
On the Oregon postal voting thing, it doesn’t sound like they’ve really solved the core problem with postal voting, which is intimidation / vote-buying. Voting-booth voting gives you a defence against that because the intimidator / vote-buyer can’t verify which way you voted, so you can lie to them. There are some theoretical ways around this if you make people in person - things like dummy votes and negative votes - but I don’t think any of them have really been tried in practice.
But it may be that at least in civilised places like Oregan, they have enough civic pride / rule-of-law that vote-buying and intimidation aren’t really a big problem. (Also, since it’s now so cheap to carry a little camera, the voting-booth solution won’t work for much longer for the rest of us in any case. The intimidator / vote-buyer can force you to covertly video your vote and verify it that way.)
Googling a bit, what it looks like Oregan are doing fairly thorough job of is checking the people who are being registered really exist. IIRC (and someone can correct me if I’m wrong) the voting fraud that has been uncovered in the UK recently has tended to involve registering non-existent people then casting postal votes for them.
Sorry, lost a word somewhere in that last post.
There are some theoretical ways around this if you make people register in person - things like dummy votes and negative votes - but I don’t think any of them have really been tried in practice.
58. She has to campaign on the issues if she accepts (and I’m sure she does despite the public pronouncements), that she’s not going to get the nomination. Once she’s decided that, the game becomes ‘get the best deal out of standing’.
There are basically two things she could argue for: position and platform. What she has to negotiate with are the timing and nature of her withdrawal. I don’t buy the talk of the Vice-Presidency, as I really don’t see what she could stand to gain from it. She should know, having been in the White House, that a VP is as powerful as the President chooses him or her to be. If you are in politics, then usually it is because you want to ‘get things done’. It’s clear that Hillary has had a longish list of such things for a long time - healthcare top of them - and would be far better placed in the Senate to get them enacted than as VP. But to do so would be far easier with the support of the President.
To that end, she needs to mend bridges with Obama and to get some sort of popular support for the policies she’s championing - hence the more positive nature of her campaign since Indiana (something I predicted, btw
).
She can’t really withdraw from the race while she’s winning states (”I asked for your support, you gave it, and now I’m going to demonstrate that I wasn’t sincere by getting out of the race”), so it’s going through to Montana and South Dakota. What these final three weeks will be about will be how much of her key priorities she can get Obama to adopt, and whether she’ll get any kind of position to help push them into legislation.
Even so, expect a withdrawal announcement shortly after the final primaries - D-Day for Hillary will be about June 6th.
David, the point is that the VP is the heir.
Remind me, how did WV vote in the general last time? If Hillary isn’t VP, it’s going McCain for certain.
I think I agree with David@69 about Hillary being most likely to withdraw after the final primaries. The nice thing about that approach for her is that it maximizes her pledged delegate count so that in the (albeit exceedingly unlikely) event that Obama implodes before the convention and she decides to reenter the race, she minimizes the number of delegates she has to flip.
The only thing I wonder is if she might not make a tactical decision to “concede defeat” in advance of the Rules Committee meeting on 5/31. By “withdrawing” from the race, she maximizes the chances that they’ll seat Michigan and Florida, reducing the number of delegates she has to persuade to reconsider if she decides to make a comeback at the convention…
70. But she can only be heir if either Obama hands over for whatever reason during his term of office - and Clinton knows how hard it is to force a president out once elected, and Obama is much younger than she is - or after he’s fought two elections. By 2016, Hillary will be pushing seventy and in any case, the record of VP’s going on to be elected president is poor; only Bush snr has managed it in the last 150 years (Nixon did at the second attempt, but Hillary wouldn’t get a second attempt).
Obama is a different sort of Democratic candidate to Kerry, and in any case, if there is a need to strengthen the ticket by appealing to those who he didn’t get to vote for him in WV, Obama can look to other options beyond Clinton. It would serve them both for her to stay in the Senate.
Maybe he will offer her some other serious job like SecState?
70 Test
73. He’d be daft if he did- she doesn’t have the foreign policy gravitas of someone like Joe Biden.
70 Test
Believe me, it ain’t gonna happen. Here’s just one of a number of enlightening rticles on the subject:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/no_veep_slot_for_hillary.html
If you were a betting person, Test, I’d advise you to pick up some of the free money available by laying her on the two VP markets.
In fact, if you’d like a private wager…just for fun?
59. Yes, all the papers have been less than complimentary, many have actually been incredibly hostile about it. The few labour supporters on here yesterday crowing will pretty much have to re-think about this entire fiasco. It’s become pretty obvious the government has funded this u-turn with massive borrowing, again. It’s being seen as a bribe for the by election.
New thread - The by election betting - the morning after
Mike,
What she need from this win was a bootstrap the media narrative. From what I can gather, this has not happened.
Travis Childer’s victory in Mississippi is probably not helping this. There is something of the Portillo about this special election victory and the American political media may just have picked up on that.
Political media thrives on novelty and drama: There was none in Clinton’s victory but plenty in Childer’s 8 point cruise to the House.
Let’s be honest. In West Virginia, “white working class” is a euphemism for racist mountain men and inbreeders, and I say this as a Southerner intimately acquainted with the ethos of the state. If Obama’s weakness as a candidate in the general election is that he can’t win the votes of ignorant racists, that’s not his problem, or the DNC’s problem, and it definitely not something Clinton is doing RIGHT…..