The by election betting - the morning after
May 14th, 2008
C&N punters mount their own U-turn
Yesterday evening, less than two hours after Darling’s commons statement on the tax U-turn I published a chart here under the headline “Darling gives Labour a boost in the Crewe betting“.
This has been picked up in the media and on a number of other sites and presented as an instant verdict on what Brown and Darling did yesterday.
Well after consideration the markets have returned to almost exactly where they were 24 hours ago.
This is probably as a result of the way the media has dealt with Darling’s commons statement. For ministers have had to cope with their own words of only a few weeks ago being played back to them repeatedly. U-turns never look good because it raises question marks about your judgement in the first place.
And this has been picked up by the markets as can be seen above. The chart, itself, shows the changes in the betting odds reflected as an implied probability.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
It was interesting how the TV news coverage changed over the hours. The BBC were initially sympathetic, which was quite worrying, but they had changed tact by 10pm, headlining it as a ‘U-Turn’. ITV and Sky were pretty scathing.
ITV were very scathing, they slammed it from the get go. The BBC went with ‘wrong footing the tories’ intially but then swiftly changed tack, the papers are pretty much against the entire thing too. The Sun’s headline is ‘the bribe minister’, think that says it all.
Repeated from the early hours - The Gods have ways of taking down people who think they are invincible -I should know!
Is Cameron getting complacent? If someone had said this on PB, Mike might have had to ban them.
David Cameron told yesterday’s Press Gallery lunch. “All parties have their problems. We had the difficulty with [sex addict] Irvine Laidlaw. I thought I had done what was necessary. I took away the whip. But obviously I should have taken away the handcuffs, suspenders and the thong. In fact when I first saw the headline, ‘Top Tory, Coke and the Hooker’, I thought ‘Oh no, not George again’.”
The Independent: http://tinyurl.com/53p2y4
Yes it is interesting that the graph shows that effectively this change has been seen through. I wonder though whether Darling misled the House in his statement, he said that the 40% threshold was reduced by £600 pounds but the HMRC press release confirms that it is reduced by £1200 pounds. Isn’t misleading the house a resignation issue?
It may have brought a few Labour MPs back onside for now but it’s already clear that Brown’s desperate and reckless attempt to buy votes in Crewe and Nantwich has backfired badly. Apart from Nick Robinson’s initial attempt to spin it, the media have been almost universally negative and even Robinson has had to revise his earlier position.
So, another cackhanded and cynical attempt by Brown to court popularity has failed. Does everything this man touch turn gangrenous and for how much longer do we have to tolerate this grotesque creature as Prime Minister of our country?
Looks like the betting markets over-reacted on this one. Of course, the initial response was like Nick Palmers; Great, we’re out of the 10p hole. But of course, that was before the enormity of what Brown and Darling had done sunk in. To reopen a budget and kow-tow to your backbenchers like this is deeply humiliating. Moreover, most people are still deeply unimpressed that Brown actually did this in the first place and whilst this may take some of the sting out of Browns tax con, theres still a lot of anger out there. My suspicion is that the people of Crewe will still want to send Brown a message next week and it won’t be thanks from a gratful public.
2. Another interesting example of how the BBC’s default approach is to regurgitate any spin the government gives it…often then being forced to meekly trail along behind other news providers who have something resembling journalistic independence. The license fee might as well be paid directly to Labour HQ.
darling does no mislead. he simply does not understand.
3. I think Cameron’s funny. He’s having fun, whats wrong with that? Soon enough he’ll be in government and all the pressure’s that go with being in government, but for the moment, he’s on the crest of a wave and enjoying himself. I don’t begrudge him some fun.
3, he just made a few jokes, like when Hague mocks the Lib Dems, or Cable said Brown was Bean, or when Brown said he was prudent.
4, that’s an interesting point.
A £600 increase in personal allowance is, as said, an extra £120. A decrease of the 40% band threshold of £1200 (with a 20% difference between basic and higher rate) would amount to them paying £240 more, which becomes an extra £120 when the extra personal allowance is taken into account.
So, if you’re at the top end of the 20% band you’re sorted, a tax rise for the higher earners and a tax decrease (although the net effect could still be a loss) at the lower end of the 20%.
Missed the fun and arrived at the tail end to see 102% on the LAY side…which was nice !
First thing to be said is that the turnover on the C&N Heat has been minimal and still only amounts to 37k.
The other thing to be said is that the initial reaction was just silly unsophisticated people expressing their opinion and more sophisticated people having fun.
The re-reaction looks far more sensible.
8 should read not.
I still think there’s value in betting on Labour in Crewe… not to say i think Labour will win, but i think the contest is a good deal closer than the ‘chatter’ might suggest.
That said, I’m tempted to go with the chap from the fiscal studies institue (who was on most of the news programs) when he said those benifiting from a tax reform were usually ungrateful and those losing-out would normally be angry… if that’s the case i dont see it helping Labour get out its core vote in Crewe any more than the infantile ‘class warfare’ rehtoric they have been using.
Quentin Letts amusingly brings up the spectre of the old Stalinist show trials in his take on Frank Field’s about face:
“……Various Labour sycophants spoke up for our visionary Government. Then there was a gulpy mea culpa from Frank Field, the Labour MP who had been leading the 10p tax band revolt.
You may recall that over the weekend Mr Field pretty much said on BBC radio that Gordon Brown was barking mad and should resign before he had to be wheeled away by men with white coats and a horse syringe.
Yesterday it turned out he had in fact intended to say that Mr Brown was a giant among men who should be given the Nobel Prize. Something like that, anyway.
A teary-eyed Mr Field wobbled to his feet and said: “May I congratulate the Chancellor for putting an end to this issue?
“Pleasure will be widely expressed in the country. I allowed my campaign to become personal. I much regret that.”
It had been a recantation worthy of an old Iron Curtain country. We can probably conclude that Mr Field will not be needing to visit a manicurist for a few months…….”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/columnists/columnists.html?in_article_id=566282&in_page_id=1772&in_author_id=228&in_check=N
Frank Field, man of principle? I really don’t think so. Not when there are still 1.1 million losers and they being the poorest of all.
3 It is good to see a politician being able to present outwardly as normal. How long he can keep it up for, we shall see.
SeanT - where are you?
Re: Istanbul Scams - yesterday - have you read this?
http://lastknownlocation.blogspot.com/2006/12/istanbul-scams.html
Third paragraph scam… SHOE SHINER DROPS BRUSH!!
Also, if you’re a single-male walking alone in the tourist areas, beware of the “let’s have a drink” scam.
I always politely refuse. I’ve been to Istanbul many times.
10 - Yes for 40% payers if the band had been left unchanged they would have gained £120 from the personal allowance increase effectively changing tax on an extra £600 pounds from 20% to 0%. They would then have gained another £120 from the extra £600 pounds being charged at 20% as opposed to 40%. So a reduction in the band by £600 as the chancellor announced in his statement would have removed the gain from the extra £600 then being in the lower rate but by reducing the band by £1200 pounds as in the press release reduces it by both gains. So 40% taxpayers gain nil. When one considers that as a result of the changes announced yesterday the new 40% threshold is 34,800, the threshold for tax year 2007/08 was 34,600 so effectively Darling has reversed the indexation of the 40% band.
17, not sure if I’m reading you correctly, I get the £600 increase to the allowance threshold.
But this:
“They would then have gained another £120 from the extra £600 pounds being charged at 20% as opposed to 40%”
I’m not sure of. Was the 40% threshold being raised by £600?
Well, of course it’s a U-turn, and the Tories have to stress this aspect: after all, Oppositions are supposed to oppose. Nonetheless, the line “I made a mistake, I owned up and I put it right” is not to be despised (though this Government doesn’t have the skill to spin it effectively), and contrasts with Thatcher’s attitude to the Poll Tax.
I think it will steady the Labour ship, though: what was originally proposed was a Tory tax reform (simplifying, regressive) - what is now being offered is the sort of tax change Labour governments are elected to make.
18 - No, but if it had been left where it is then £600 would have dropped into the 20% as it would have been in the first 36,000 of taxable income. As the tax free threshold had gone up £600 the finishing point of this first 36,000 would have moved up £600. So without changing the threshold 40% taxpayers would have gained twice. Dropping by £600 would have removed one gain, dropping by £1200 removes both.
19 - HUH??!? A middle class bribe that stings over a million of the poorest people in the country to con middle earners at a by-election … a LABOUR tax. Keir Hardie is spinning like a top as we speak.
IA @ 19-
One observable move, albeit on another pygmy market, was that Gordon Brown was backed to remain as PM.
Could have been the Frank Field effect.
“Mr Darling came to the Commons to announce an early tax cut, for everybody except the rich.” Not really true!
People over the age of 65 - already in receipt of the Age Allowance - will NOT receive a tax cut.
So please warn your elderly bloggers not to go out and splurge their £120 on champagne and caviar. They ain’t going to get it.
2. More disgraceful coverage from the Beeb.
20, ah, gotcha, didn’t realise the 20% band was X amount of taxable income rather than being defined as income earnt between X and Y.
19, a mess of a tax change funded by borrowing billions? Very Labour.
They’ve climbed down on IHT, CGT and now income tax. You would’ve thought they’d get one of them right, if only by chance.
Wonder if any mobile phones were smashed when the papers were shown to Mr Brown today.
I’m off to York for some racing anyway. Sorry for not being around to post Cameron brilliant Brwon rubbish for PMQ’s but here it is ahead of the event.
19 - Well, superficially it looks good; superficially it’s both a tax cut for the lowest earners AND a simplification - how could I object to that? But it’s not actually paid for by spending any less; it’s paid for by increasing borrowing. Is this how you run your own finances?
16 - The more I hear of places like that, the more I like Britain.
Anyone know what tax policy is going to be next week?
27 - Didn’t Gordon always say that they would only borrow to invest? What’s the return on this investment, it isn’t going to be votes?
Also having looked at the press release, we are all defined as customers of HMRC. Can we take our custom elsewhere, say to a tax body that is cheaper?
[27] No it isn’t. I am not a government (well, the last time I looked, anyaway).
Interesting perspective from Rob Peston on Darling’s (Brown’s) mini-budget:
Inflation’s the problem
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2008/05/inflations_the_problem.html#commentsanchor
This “borrow to invest” mantra should be exposed as the nonsense it is. When you buy a house most people “borrow to invest” with a mortgage but unfortunately they also have to repay the capital if they want to own the house at the end of the mortgage. Brown’s so called “Golden Rule” involves no capital repayment and worse, the things he invests in such as new schools and roads tend to decline in value.
With this tax change Brown buys himself some more time unless the C&N result is a disaster such as 3rd place.
Meanwhile for those of you that think the LDs ghave a chance in Henley they have done it again and removed their candidate replacing a local female councillor with a male.
I predict that this will reduce the swarms of yellow peril that will invade Henley.
http://tinyurl.com/3qjafv
“Those Liberal Democrats are ruthless. Jonathan Isaby
60-year-old local councillor Susan Cooper was forced to re-apply for the nomination, but failed even to reach the first shortlist after local party worthies sifted through the application forms.
Doesn’t she feel her party has a funny way of thanking her for her efforts? “Yes, but there’s very little I can do about it. I’ve got plenty to do: my garden’s been somewhat neglected of late,” she lamented.”
Replacing a female with a male will create a backlash within the party.
Well, I have eight ‘test cases’ of constituents who were personlaly affected by the 10p abolition, with varying degrees of anger from “I’m not too happy about this” to “I’ll never vote Labour again”. Four have been in touch since yesterday: they are all moderately mollified though not ecstatic - ‘I’m still £30/year down, I suppose that’s not enough to get upset about’ to ‘OK, it shouldn’t have happened but thanks for helping get it fixed’.
As I said yesterday, I don’t think it’ll bring back people who are cheesed off for lots of other reasons too (who saw it as the last straw), but it gives a way back for people who didn’t really want to give up on Labour. So I’d expect a moderate poll recovery. How far that will that affect C&N I have no idea, but the odds against Labour looks quite generous since I don’t think anyone else has any real certainty either. (And before someone quotes the summer storm again, I’ll remind them that it was a report from a single day’s canvassing, and i contradicted it with a downbeat report on another day.)
US election: pretty impressive Hillary result however you look at it, but of course not game-changing. It reinforces the need for a deal, and I noticed SSI (who has said he really dislikes her) making a friendly comment: I think most Democrat activists will be up for a reconciliation (malc4ken obviously not, but you can’t win them all). Whether the blue-collar Hillary core can be brought back even with Hillary onside seems doubtful to me, but let’s hope so.
Hillary ought to have a serious last-ditch effort in Oregon this week. She’s going to walk Kentucky, and everyone expects her to lose big in Oregon for all the obvious reasons plus polls putting her double-digits behind. It’s probably too late given the postal voting system, but there’s nothing to lose, and if she can pull it back to single digits it will strengthen her bargaining hand. I gather Chelsea was leading a huge parade of Clinton supporters in Puerto Rico yesterday, and Michelle O was heading out to marshall the Obama vote, so curiously that may turn out to be the last close-run primary.
One bonus from all of this - when was the last time that EVERY state got to vote before the nomination was completely sewn up? There’s a small-d democratic argument that one should be pleased about that.
[33] Replacing a female with a male will create a backlash within the party - that’s what Hillary thinks, too
33. I think the bigger problem is not that they’ve replaced a female candidate with a male one, but that they’ve replaced a local councillor with an ‘outsider’.
Morning Campers !!!!!!!!
Hardly a suprise that real punters don’t rate Labour in C&N !! Total cock up on the 10p tax rate. Labour down the khazi in this by election.
…………………………
Over the pond.
Handsome win for Hillary. Much to expectations. Small electoral earthquake in West Virginia, Obama still alive. Interesting that Edwards polled 7%.
Perhaps of more note was the 8 point Dem win in Miss 01. The GOP tried to link Childers to Obama and Wright in an extensive and expensive ad buy and failed utterly, spending almost $1.5M in the process.
32. The definition of ‘investment’ tends to be rather elastic as well. Of course the ‘golden rule’ is utter nonsense - it’s just something made up years ago to make Labour look fiscally responsible. The 40% debt ceiling similarly has no economic logic, it was just another attempt to gain a veneer of respectability.
The funny thing is that over time, Labour seem to have actually become quite wedded to these arbitrary and meaningless rules. Remember how Snowflake used to endlessly rant and rave about how public debt was supposedly lower than a decade ago?
Prediction - as public debt spirals over the next couple of years, we may find these ‘rules’ given slightly less emphasis. Perhaps Labour will dust off the Major government’s line that massive state borrowing is essential ‘to protect the vulnerable’ - they will of course mean MPs in marginal seats.
Nick Palmer MP [34] - “As I said yesterday, I don’t think it’ll bring back people who are cheesed off for lots of other reasons too (who saw it as the last straw),….”
Nick Palmer backs Jack Straw. you heard it here first.
33- we’ll see. I suspect the issue for Conservatives is that the Lib Dems have replaced a weaker candidate with a stronger one.
Time is ticking away and the longer the campaign the worse it is for incumbents.
34 Nick P. “There’s a small-d democratic argument that one should be pleased about that.”
You might have made the same argument when “Our Gawd” had his North Korean moment in the Labour leadership election !!
37 Morning, young Jack.
“Interesting that Edwards polled 7%.”
John boy for VP, perhaps? I’ve heard sillier suggestions…Hillary, for example.
Might affect the GOP VP market?
“A case of Too Much Information - and, quite honestly, what degree of information wouldn’t be too much? - about the s£x lives of pint-sized war veteran John McCain and his inner circle. Hot on the heels of the problematic mental image conjured up by the liberal doyenne Arianna Huffington in a television interview last week (”[McCain] has such a passion for Iraq - that’s his V1agra”) comes a local radio appearance by Tim Pawlenty, governor of Minnesota, co-chair of the McCain campaign and a leading potential candidate for vice-president. “I have a wife who genuinely loves to fish,” said Pawlenty, as the conversation turned to family recreation. “I mean, she will take the lead and ask me to go out fishing. She loves football, she’ll go to hockey games … Now, if only I could get her to have s£x with me.” Gasps all round, not least because - well, it’s almost sort of funny, isn’t it? OK, maybe not. “It’s a joke, it’s a joke,” Pawlenty hastened to clarify, but perhaps it’s strategic? No need to worry about McCain’s lack of affinity with the Christian conservative base, after all, if there’s a confirmed practitioner of abstinence on the ticket. Sure, promoting celibacy may not be trendy now, but future generations will thank us.
Cringe…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/may/14/usa
I have just heard a phone-in programme on Radio Scotland about the tax changes, and Darling, Broon and the Labour government were getting it in the neck. And this from ordinary people. Labour have come out of this with no credit at all.
27. dont worry, as soon as turkey joins the EU, he will be on his way.
And please note that as I predicted earlier this week, UK unemployment is now rising.
whohahahahaha
I’d like to go back, if I may, to the lively discussion about inflation rates, real and concocted, that was held here a day or two ago.
Presumably different households buy different baskets of goods and so experience different inflation rates. I wonder how hard it would be to identify a “pensioners basket” (which might, for example, include more food and less white goods and electronica - I don’t know) and then say that benefit uprating would be by whichever of that or the RPI was higher. Might be a useful gizmo for the government to introduce in the autumn of its days - the Tories would be vulnerable if they didn’t promise to keep to the arrangement once in office.
35 and 36, let us see how the female LD’s react.
Its a bribe - since all standard tax payers get it (except pensioners) it cannot be seen as compensation for the lowest earners in that group. Their position relative to those earning rather more is unchanged - hardly compensation.
The whole thing has put the public finances in further disarray in an attempt at short term political expediency - which has already unravelled. The worst of all worlds !
37 - 8-point win! That is a phenomenal result in MS-01 - I said to Kieran last week that I thought they would sneak it this time and then lose it back again in November, but with that sort of lead, they mighht hold on.
Very impressive.
45 Gaz. “…turkey joins the EU..”
Gobble Gobble …. Bernard Matthews Alert !!!!!!!!
Advert of the day?
“Lib Dems can’t win here”
on the Lib Dem Blogs website.
http://tinyurl.com/yoke8d
37. Jack - I am not so sure about C&N as I believe the the Dunwoody “brand” is very strong in Crewe and a significant proportion of Labour voters will regard that as more important than Labour’s failings at National level:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/14/byelections.labour
42 PtP.
Hi Peter. Edwards has said no to the Veep spot.
Labour will get no credit for this - I still expect the Crewe result to be disastrous and Brown to be forced out shortly thereafter.
34: Brown must have real contempt for Labour voters if he thinks such a blatant bribe designed to put right a mess of his making will get them back in the fold.
40: ‘…the longer the campaign the worse it is for incumbents.’
I was in Henley a few weeks ago, and I’d have thought there’s about as much chance of that constituency electing a non-Tory as of me flying to the moon - lots of gruff old boys in blazers walking around with one hand behind their back.
53 Goupillon. Nope !!!. Labour down the pan in C&N.
It’ll be sympathy for Tamsin but vote Tory. The punters are intent of giving the government in general and Brown in particular a good tonking and they will use the Conservatives as the vehicle to do it.
Just to confirm, I believe that Darling did say that the higher rate threshold would be reduced by £600. Nevertheless, HMRC are correct in saying that to be neutral to higher rate tax payers it does need to be reduced by £1,200.
If my recollection on Darling is correct, will he have to make another statement apologising? Also, how did the error occur? Is this another example of the Treasury, especially politicians and special advisers, not really understanding what they are doing?
27. True. But if you want to travel and see the world, it’s par for the course.
They spot you a mile off. And, being British and polite, ıt’s hard to ignore them, or tell them to f**k off.
But… you have to learn to be hard and take the abuse. A genuinely friendly foreigner won’t come up to you in the street.
Funny thing is.. I know all this, but I’ve almost been caught out recently, purely because I was tired, didn’t think and let my guard down.
Best thing?
Go with your gut feeling - if *anyone? initiates anythıng wıth you ın a touristy area.. be suspicious.
Unemployment up by 14k
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7400079.stm
54 - Do you have a link to that? I had not heard he had rejected it in terms.
59 - Misleading the house used to be a resignation issue.
16. Casino.
lol. That’s fantastic. The guy who first scammed me with the dropped brush even tried the same line: about “hungry kids in Ankara” - as he tried to gouge me for 10 lire. (He got 2).
Istanbul still rocks, though, does it not? Magnificently fascinating place. Right now I am off to see the place where the sultan’s son was executed, in the time-honoured manner: by having his teesticles slowly crushed.
Gule gule!
Ah but is Cameron a Conservative?
Heffer, who else in today’s Telegraph
http://tinyurl.com/4j7vya
“David Cameron, prove to me that you’re a Tory”
I said this immediately after Darling’s announcement and having just read through the morning papers I am more clear than ever that this desperate short term play has much wider signifigance.
Broon has basically lost one of his key attacks on the Conservatives. That being the accusation of an unfunded Conservative black hole in relation to spending/tax policy followed by the Broon mantra that he is prudent, competent and won’t risk stability in the long term for short term gain.
That line of attack has gone and he doesn’t have much left.
Just try and imagine what Broon and his lackeys would have said if Cameron had answered that bloke in C&N with..”well I’ll put up the personal allowance and borrow to fund it” to see what I mean.
40.”33- we’ll see. I suspect the issue for Conservatives is that the Lib Dems have replaced a weaker candidate with a stronger one.”
What a charming way to describe a local candidate who was good enough for a GE campaign!
44.”Darling, Broon and the Labour government were getting it in the neck”
FergusMac, when it comes to tipping points I would say that the Labour party, and in particular Gordon Brown has reached that point already in Scotland. This week will just accelerate the decline, and as for Wee Wendy, words fail me!
More bad news for Gordo. The first time in 150 yrs that a sitting Prime Minister has not featured at Madame Tussauds. A massive 83.8% voted NO in an online poll.
http://adamboulton.typepad.com/my_weblog/2008/05/whos-missing-fr.html
Misleading the house used to be a resignation issue
Now the ability to do so is a vital qualification for office.
65 - Sometimes I really do want to beat Heffer into a gibbering pulp. We know what unrestrained Hefferism led to it wasn’t Conservative poll leads of 26%.
62 James. Edwards has said it a few times most recently on the Larry King show on Monday evening.
54 Noted with thanks, Jack.
Still think laying Hillary for VP is free money though, as I mentioned to Mrs Test on the previous thread.
37 - To put that spending into context, it’s an average detached house in Surrey. I’m pretty sure the GOP can afford the hit…
Heffer voted UKIP last time - where are they now ?
He’s a useful idiot for Cameron - I wonder if he’s in on the joke or not ?
63: Can we start with Brown and his massive lie last week?
65: The Hefferlump is the sort of person Cameron wants attcking him to show howfar away he is from them.
65 John Rentoul asks the same question… things to come?
David Cameron vs the Tory Party
By John Rentoul
David Cameron voted against the majority of Conservative MPs who took part in the division yesterday on the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Bill. He was one of 37 Tories voting in favour; 49 voted against. The rest found something better to do. According to the incomparable Professor Philip Cowley of Revolts.co.uk, this is the fourth time he has been in a minority in his own party in Commons votes recently.
The others were votes cast in favour an 80-per-cent-elected House of Lords (where the Conservatives split 80/103 against); gay adoption (where the Conservatives split 29/85 against); and the abolition of blasphemy (where the Conservatives split 37/51 against). In each case, the party leader found himself in a minority of his party.
He really is beginning to resemble Tony Blair. (On whose absence from politics Robert Harris is well worth reading today.)
Jack/Morus/SSI…Do you know the final result of the Ohio primary? Yesterday, a couple of posters here reported that some 50,000 votes were shifted from Clinton to Obama, representing some 1.5%. Does that mean that Hillary actually won by only something like 6-7%?
The Iowa Exchanges completely unmoved by the Hillary’s win in WV, clearly having discounted the win :
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Nomination08_quotes.html
59/63 - No, both HMRC and Darling were correct. There are two different ways of describing the threshold depending on how you treat the allowance. So the total income at which you start paying the higher rate falls by £1200 but the TAXABLE income you need to start paying the higher rate (the “threshold”) falls by only £600 due to the increase in the allowance.
76. See 74 but omit the “useful”
65/70/74/75 - FOUR references to the Silly ‘Effer? Didn’t realise he had that many readers.
65 - Heffer’s just a plank. He’s one of these people who think only people exactly like him should be Tories. Most of that ilk joined UKIP.
GAH.
81 - I read him simply to try to see any reason to be charitable and am constantly thwarted.
65. Heffer is an idiot mired in the past. He cannot accept the fact that the tories have become a great deal more electable under Cameron, because ever since Cameron became leader he has criticised his every move. Heffer has become obsessed with being proved right over this, no matter what kind of evidence to the contrary is being produced. Massive poll leads, thousands more councillors, government on the ropes, and Heffer still has as go at Cameron, and still says he isn’t up to the job.
Heffer is correct, Cameron is not a Tory, (anymore than Blair was a socialist). Cameron has never called himeslf a Tory, he describes himself as , ‘Liberal Conservative’ but what he really is, is a paternalistic Socialist, in the Macmillan tradition.
Tony Blair got into power by convincing the voters he wasn’t a socialist, Cameron is attempting to get into power by convincing the voters he is a Socialist: well he’s convinced me!!
I am not one who generally rushes to defend Comrades Darling or Brown, but I do think they have acted correctly in this case - however much it hurt their pride to do so - Brown’s face as this was read out in the commons didn’t exactly suggest euphoria…
They have responded, however belatedly, to public and MP concerns, and have acted in a way that mitigates the damage to most of the people concerned, gives a mild boost to a lot of other people facing financial troubles, and took some from the wealthier - a small step towards proper redistribution, but a step none the less!
To attack them for doing what everyone was calling for them to do now smacks of hypocrisy and media spin - by the media
71 - I am more cynical than you, Jack. My reading of the Larry King thing was Obama said he had “no intention” of doing it and that he was focussed on the fight against poverty. But if Obama leaned on him, I think he could very easily say it was the best way to further his fight against poverty etc. The VP slot would have to be very tempting for Edwards, who has no elected position and would be young enough in 2016 to slide into Obama’s shoes. The last thing you want to say as a potential VP is “I’d love to do it” then not get asked by the nominee.
[65] Be fair to poor Simon Heffer. At least he compares himself to a badly-trained dog who does unmentionables on the best rug… and which of us would wish to gainsay him?
64. It’s a great place. Superb city!
Been outside the touristy areas yet?
Try Dolmabache Palace and further up along the Bosphorus shoreline up to Bebek. Been to the Black Sea?
Also, Levent/Etiler is where the real money is at. Ferrari/Porsche garages/Banks galore etc.. Bit more relaxed up there - sans tourists!
But watch out for the friendly Turks wanting to take you for a drink at night..
77 John O. I think the final figure is a Clinton win by 8.8%.
72 PtP. I think Obama will win with or without Clinton but bigger with her.
She’ll strengthen his weaker demographics in seniors, women, lunch bucket, conservative Democrats and put Arkansas on the table. Additionally team Clinton would be a big campaigning plus.
The question is can Obama get past the “personal” and keep his eyes on the main prize …… namely PBers 50/1 tickets !!
77 - Hadn’t heard a thing, but will look into that - could still be important in the PV discussion.
[71] Isn’t there a long tradition in US politics of saying “I will not run, I will not be drafted and if elected I will not serve” which everyone interprets as “I’m gagging for it”
53 Goupillon
The Guardian lost all credibility in their coverage of the London Mayor contest.
They are thoroughly unreliable currently incapable of giving any objective insights into the realities of an election campaign. It was not always thus.
Imagine how unpleasant the country would be run by John Gaunt, Simon Heffer and Richard Littlejohn. It’s enough to make nice Tories cry. But then a selection of the most nauseating lefties: Say Johann Hari and Julie Burchill for some high-pitched hysteria, would be just as bad.
Thank god journalism takes the most unpleasant people out of politics (Alistair Campbell obviously slipped the net)
79 - That is utter rubbish.
86. Sorry, remind me, who exactly was asking them to increase public borrowing by 2.7bn?
81: Heffer is regularly brought here as an example of how Cameron is not a Tory, how the grassroots don’t like him, or some such nonsense. You read his rants, like those of Kevin Maguire, and Johann Hari, because you know the opposite of what he says is right.
87 James. “Cynical” … moi !!
The scuttlebug is that Edwards wants to be Attorney General. Obama might consider that Edwards has sat on the fence too long. However Obama will want Edwards on board, he too brings a dynamic to the ticket.
97. True, anything Heffer says about Cameron is usually heavily laden with assumptions and arrogant opinion, usually to back up a very tenuous point.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=254081ec-e21b-4a73-91f3-a6cc8e4ba75d
New SUSA match-up poll for Washington:
Obama 54 McCain 42
Clinton 49 McCain 45
76. Don’t the press understand what a ‘free vote’ means?
The 80/20 vote on Lords reform is hardly recent - its from 2002 IIRC. Presumably he voted with the majority on all the other plethora of options.
89. I’ve barely been outside Sultanahmet, so far (but then I love history, and it’s quite an intoxicating area. There are Byzantine graves at the doorway to my hotel. Perhaps they tried the fish sandwiches).
Eventually I am headed for the Princes Islands, in the Sea of Marmara - have you been there? Meant to be lovely. That’s the ostensible reason for my visit (a magazine travel piece). I might try the Bosphorus too - sounds cool.
After that I think I’m going to go down to Troy and then the Dardanelles.
It’s dark and lonely work, travelwriting, but someone’s got to do it.
Heffer’s main agenda is to try to sink the Cameroon venture and restore a right wing anti-Europe ultra-monetarist leadership to the Tories (Redwood is his hero). Hence he’s already been touting around for a successor to Brown (eg by advocating D Milliband) because he fears Brown is a loser and will allow his bete noir ie Cameron into power. For that reason he also backed Clegg as Lib Dem leader as he felt his more right wing stance (compared to Huhne) would attract the sort of voters who might otherwise vote for Cameron.
#79 Yes, the measures are neutral for 40% tax-payers (they don’t gain or loose), however ~150,000 tax payers are pulled into the 40% band and as a consequence will find themselves completing a tax return, which I’m sure will delight them.
It’s a mistake to term it a tax-cut, tax cuts can only be delivered by corresponding cuts in expenditure as we are constantly told.
It’s simply a 1-off payment of £120 for ~22M people, administered through the tax system, and paid for on UK plc’s credit card. We pay the bill+interest at some point in the future, either through a tax rise or a cut in expenditure.
102. Bastard!
Nope. ‘Fraid I haven’t there! I’d Love to see Troy/Gallipoli - but I know it takes HOURS to get there.
I come here on business… the kind where you stay in a nice (but bland) hotel and work in an office
Sultanahmet has lots of great stuff - and you’re visting at just the right time. Outside peak season, but still warm!
Enjoy
[76] How do we that David Cameron actually isn’t Tony Blair - you never see them together.
A Pedant Writes: Cameron has far better taste in women.
98. I think you mean “scuttlebutt” Jack W.
“Scuttlebutt” is a noun meaning idle chatter and gossip, derived from a naval term for the ship’s drinking fountain: around which sailors would natter.
A “scuttlebug”, by contrast, appears to be a brand of kid’s tricycle.
I thought “Jack W” was meant to be an ex-military man? Surely he’d have known this. The committee is getting lax..
The “Portland Tribune” figures for their poll I posted yesterday have been amended thus :
Clinton 35% .. Obama 55%
http://www.portlandtribune.com/news/story.php?story_id=121064144749596700
people such as Heffer and Hari have never, since leaving University, done anything but write comments for gullible newspapers. Who on earth would take advice from them? Their views on politics and government are as relevant as those of Wayne Rooney, as they all have a single vote.
I can imagine a version of Big Brother, with Heffer, Hari, Toynbee, Littlejohn, Street-Porter, Alibhai Brown and the brothers Hitchens all being locked up together - what attruly hideous sight it would be.
92 - It’s called the Shermanesque denial, but isn’t considered to be code at all. If you give a Shermanesque denial, it means you are definitely out of it - giving anything less, however, ensures that people interpret your prevarication as meaning that you are very keen.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shermanesque_statement
SeanT,
Take the 90-minute ferries from downtown Istanbul to the Princes Islands in the Sea of Marmora. Quite stunning for a day trip.
(They were so named because of the Byzantine emperors’ practice of sending bothersome princes there to be blinded, exiled or executed. Thought you’d like that detail. Perhaps Gordon could use Canvey Island for the same purpose - are you listening, Frank?)
Peter Golds, they are called the Commentariat. An unelected group of twitterers that in the era of limited channels could control the access to facts.
No more. If they interpret polls wrong there are real challenges from sites like this one.
[109] I’m pretty sure that one difference is that Heffer and Hari always vote. That would seem to be a large claim in the case of Mr Rooney.
109 - If we did get those luminaries in the Big Brother house would it be possible to lose the keys and electrify the perimeter?
109: ‘I can imagine a version of Big Brother, with Heffer, Hari, Toynbee, Littlejohn, Street-Porter, Alibhai Brown and the brothers Hitchens all being locked up together - what attruly hideous sight it would be.’
But an easy target for carpet bombing.
107 seanT.
…. scuttlebug has other meanings !! 
111 Posted beofre I saw your 102. You are a very fortunate man - stunning scenery, old Greek Orthodox Monastaries in picturesque hill-top settings, the only noise being bird-song and the (surprisingly loud) clanking from the shells of rutting tortoises…
115 You have a truly warped imagination.
New Strategic Vision Presidential Poll for Georgia :
McCain 54% .. Obama 40%
http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/georgia_poll_051408.htm
118: Bless.
RE Henley by election LD candidate change. Who said there would be no backlash?
Linda Jack LD MEP candidate and LD member of their Federal Policy committee writes.
“Are we really saying we have no women approved candidates able to cut the mustard in a by election? I can’t believe that.
So yet again we will have dissent in the party which could so easily have be avoided.”
http://tinyurl.com/5ztxrp
121, why should it be a woman?
Surely the candidate should be given the task based on merit, not gender.
It’s bigotry to demand someone is put there to keep the numbers of a given demographic up. Meritocracy beats demographic representation.
106. Indeed. Isn’t Ms.Booth simply the most ghastly, common person?
119 - Just to show what a weight Bush wil be for the GOP this year - he has a 41/49 approval rating in Georgia.
O/T - For those who want another very long-odds Obama style bet….
Follow Scott Kleeb, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Nebraska. He will be their high-water mark surprise winner in November.
And he will be President by 2020.
Don’t worry about that, HF (121). She always says things like that. It’s her USP.
LD candidate..
http://www.plymdems.info/PlymdemTeam.html
The Guv says inflation WILL get worse:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7400074.stm
re 121 - Linda Jack LD MEP candidate and LD member of their Federal Policy committee writes.
“Are we really saying we have no women approved candidates able to cut the mustard in a by election? I can’t believe that.
So yet again we will have dissent in the party which could so easily have be avoided.”
Linda appears to have either forgotten about the candidate in Crewe & Nantwich, or says she can’t cut the mustard… take your pick.
Didn’t the Lib Dems drop a male candidate for a woman in C&N? It’s horses for courses surely.
Bradford and Bingley getting tanked today after rights issue announced - I wonder if their “prime” buy to let mortgage book will be snapped up by Brown and Darling
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/shares/3/498/0/default.stm
I think what all this shows it how sensible it is for Cameron to try and avoid making ANY promises on tax cuts, and face down his internal critics. It was a sound enough strategy when Labour were trying to give the impression of running the economy prudently, god knows what mess he could inherit if they continue to bribe people out of public borrowing.
47. That sort of thinking is where the winter fuel allowance came from I believe.
113. I’m sure Mr Rooney has more influence, however
130 - Yes - at least they seem to treat both sexes equally!
Henley LD candidate’s charity:
http://www.regeneratetrust.com/index1.html
minor technical point: doesn’t “unfunded tax cut” mean the promise of one that cannot be carried out because it doesn’t add up.
I would have thought that any tax cut in government is by definition “funded” because it is happening. Funded by borrowing or cuts elsewhere, fine, but still funded.
If you believe that tax cuts in recession are a bad idea, I think the expression should be “irresponsible tax cut” rather than “unfunded”
132. This is only the start. There is going to be £10-20bn more by the time the election comes around.
132.Alex - So the proposal to raise the IHT threshold to £1M was not sensible and of course could not be described as a “bribe”.
109 - Indeed. Straight from writing juvenile crap for student rags to writing exactly the same juvenile crap for national rags. A few years of doing some bloody work and growing up before opining in national newspapers would have done wonders for Heffer and Hari.
76. All of these votes are mainly on social issues though, where a free vote would be expected in most circumstances.
I agree that David Cameron is more in the center of his party, but I don’t think he’ll be at loggerheads with the Tories like Tony Blair frequently was with Labour. Except for the right wing nutters like Heffer and Redwood, Cameron is pretty much in tune with most of his party on most of the big issues. With Tony Blair you honestly got the feeling he didn’t like Labour very much, and that he could quite easily have stood as a Tory PM and sat happily with the Tories. Cameron, by contrast, is clearly a Conservative. Hss been all his life and will be as long as he’s alive. I don’t think he dislikes his party or his supporters in the way Blair clearly did.
138. to be fair they are paid to be “thought-provoking” i.e. extreme
135 One of the tragedies of this is that a general tax cut could have been presented as a sensible measure to help prevent the economy sliding into recession and justified on its own merits, as has been the case in the USA and Spain. Because of the almighty cock-up over 10p we now have a general tax cut which is presented as a desperate fix to get the government out of a hole of its own making.
140 - You can provoke thought without being extreme.
137 Last December Ms Smith said that the Government couldn’t fully fund the police pay rise because of the risk to the economy. Loss per policeman was about £200 per capita this year for 140,000 officers. But Chancellor can now fund 20 million plus with a £120 tax cut.
Every union leader will be looking at this and will argue that if he can fund tax cuts he should be able to fund pay rises.
139. that is not a very balanced viewpoint. Cameron has yet to produce any traditional Conservative policies.
Blair has already delivered a decade worth of relatively harmonious goverment (by which I mean, few revolts)
141. …and a mere three weeks after presenting a Budget that claimed the economic fundamentals were sound, and that a fiscally neutral budget was appropriate.
141. right policy (in the end), disastrous presentation.
I still don’t understand how they didn’t see this coming. Considering how complex some aspects of the tax system are, this 10p c0ck-up did not even require a calculator to spot.
I can only imagine that they thought it would go unnoticed and uncriticised (being made, as it was, during a period of polling success for Lab)
145 - Get with the excuse of the moment, it’s all America’s fault!
144: Miss his policies on IHT, and money to married couples.
On the subject of Cameron’s jokes - the crucial point is that they were self mocking jokes. Cameron showed that he’s able to tease his own side. An excellent facility. Now if Brown could show a vague sign of such slightly self deprecating humour …
143. Ah yes but the government claimed they didn’t want to fund the pay rise because it would raise inflation. That was economically nonsensical, but does allow them to claim they are being consistent….if only in deceiving the public.
A new-ish site for Brown fans
http://brown-out.blogspot.com/
145. the two are not mutually exclusive. It is possible (common, even) to have a sound fundamentals but suffer in a period of wider economic turbulence.
135 tax cuts in a recession can be the right thing to do, in some circumstances, they can lubricate the system and keep it going, but doing so when you have record high psbr is not a good idea.
When you are maxed out on credit cards, it aint a good idea to take out a store card and max it out.
139 - I don’t think that is right. It doesn’t explain why Blair stood as a Labour candidate in 1983 when it had it’s most left-wing manifesto in living memory and in danger of extinction. Why go through all that hastle if he was a Tory?
Blair differed with his party most over foreign policy where he had a very interventionist attitude (some would argue this is left-wing). On domestic policy he disagreed on means rather than ends. His position was also mindful of the electorate, similar to David Cameron.
As ed says the test will come in government as to how well Cameron can hold his party together.
146 How can a policy that still leaves 1.1 million of the poorest wage earners worse off be the right policy? Another half-arsed effort that has cost £2.7 bllion but doesn’t fix the problem. How very New Labour. But if Frank Field won’t fight for them anymore, I guess they are lost. If I were Cameron, I would lead on this aspect at PMQ’s.
148. one has already gone through [this was either copied by Lab to shoot it down, or originally a Lab policy leaked and unveiled by Con], the other would not stand up to real scrutiny I don’t think. Neither are particularly hardcore.
149. If Brown knows what is good for him he should steer clear of trying jokes. Even if he had a good one he was itching to tell, going head to head on presentation is not the game he needs to be playing.