Could there still be an upset at Crewe & Nantwich?
May 16th, 2008
…or have the punters got this one right?
There were suggestions yesterday that Labour “private polling” was showing that the by election may not be the foregone conclusion that it appears. I am always suspicious of anything that party machines allow to be leaked - if they have such data then let the party publish it as was done in the London Mayoral race last February.
If this is more than just spin to boost the morale of the troops then that would surely trickle out and the betting would move. The chart showing the implied probability of a Labour victory based on the odds points to a Labour boost overnight Wednesday/Thursday but since then it has moved back down again. The timing is in line with the “private poll” rumour.
So with Gordon Brown’s “relaunch” and media blitz not getting the favourable coverage that Number 10 must have been hoping for it’s hard to see any other game-changing development.
This weekend all the parties will be throwing everything at the seat and, in the past, the Lib Dems have been able to create late surges in by elections. Can the they do that again to upset the Tory tide?
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
New Scottish Opinion (non BPC member) poll for STV.
Scottish independence?
Yes 31%
No 43%
dk, nr, ref 26%
If 3 options given then approx:
More powers to Scottish Parliament 50%
Independence 25%
Status quo 25%
(Sorry on links cos on mobile.)
Good to see that Our Genial Host’s BBC training is still effective - after an ad for a right-wing magazine yesterday, to-day we have one for a left-wing book…
What about a sweepstake for Peebies on the combined Tory majorities at C&N and Henley (OGH could even take a commission)?
So this is highly partisan and not very informative, but well worth it for the comic relief:
Things younger than John McCain: http://www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com/
My favourites include “The Grapes of Wrath”, the state of Alaska, and Scrabble.
I don’t think the outcome of Crewe & Nantwich will be particularly close.
Socrates,
Rove will be ‘hold in contempt’ by a court of law: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/22996214#24657981
5 Erratum:
by Congress, — not by a court.
5
very interesting case to follow.
All I know is that I am going to be glued to pb.com next Thursday for this result. I suspect one thing that might surprise is turnout, I suspect that it could probably be quite high in by-election terms.
The Ageism shown on this website is disturbing.
5. Karl Rove getting some sort of retribution would really restore some sense of justice in US politics.
Incidentally, this is relevant to another point which I haven’t mentioned on here previously. Henry Waxman, Californian representative, is a real pitbull of an investigator and is the head of the House Oversight Committee. He’s been aggressively going after various corruption and abuses of the system by administration officials and has secured some impressive results, but the really serious stuff has been scheduled for October - just in the run up to the November elections. If lack of funds, the economy or Iraq doesn’t screw McCain by then, I’m pretty sure that will.
9. It’s only a bit of fun!
10 –
Thanks a lot for that piece of info!
–
In echo of a previous exchange: the Fatality of an Obama Presidency
GENERAL THEORY OF POLITICAL MOVEMENTS
If Western — North Atlantic — politics can be conceived/perceived as a general field of forces, — a field polarized by both the Right and the Left, — is’nt foreseenable, then, that the US will elect as a matter of fatality Mr Barack Obama — a cool kid on the Left of the spectrum — as Western Europe and the UK are flowing toward the Right of it?
Reaching thus some kind of meta-stability in this political field of forces… some kind of Equilibrium.
12. Most European politicians remain to the Left of most American politicians. But, Western Europe’s rightward shift seems clear.
13. Spain stayed with the Left at its recent election, and if you count Australia as a ‘Western’ country that went decisively Left too. So no clear trend.
Australia — not exactly North Atlantic territory.
As for Spain — your’re right; it appears as taking exception to the “Europe’s rightward shift” (I shall say, using here a Fear formula).
I did today a 1500 CAD$ on Clinton Next Vice-President at 6/1 on betfair — a nice way, I hope, to bet on the coming Obama Presidency.
Australia is more asian then western and they were replacing a long-term right leaning governmentand I don’t even know if anyone can consider Spain western. I find it disturbing the amount that 10(Socrates) and other american partisans bring to this website. Generally we in Britian do not conduct our politics in the swallow and attack style that americans do. If you have issue with McCain attack him on policy and not on bigotry.
Why 4
15. We Australians may not be in the North Atlantic physically, but we are very much an anglophone, Western, Atlantic-type culture and democracy. We are not solely defined by geography.
James at 8.
Not often we disagree, but I think the turnout for C&N will be low; even in by election terms. Labour will lose because lots of their natural supporters won’t vote; and Crewe is largely a labour city.
Not sure those two cases break the pattern.
Spain stayed left cos of the huge illegal amnesties?
Oz shifted left cos of Howard’s involvement in Iraq?
20. “Time for a change” and unpopular labour market reforms were the reason in Australia, rather than Iraq.
20. Oz shifted left cos of Howard’s involvement in Iraq?
I think it’s simpler than that - Oz shifted left because of Howard.
20
Interesting — for many think that Spain’s shift to the Left was also a kind of nay-sayin’ of the voters to the involvement in Iraq promised by the Right.
18
Ok — I might understand: Australia as a deterritorialized (neo-British?) Atlantic culture.
One day, I’ll go there.
A factoid from the last thread needs reposting -
the Lib Dems topped the poll in fewer London wards than the BNP.
Lucky the BNP aren’t standing in Crewe & Nant !
8. James Burdett - “I suspect one thing that might surprise is turnout, I suspect that it could probably be quite high in by-election terms.”
Agreed.
Turnout rises the more engaged ordinary people become with politics. Labour has benefitted up til recently from widespread apathy, disdain and disinterest in politics in general. However, from now on it seems that nearly all the disdain is reserved for the Labour Party (and in Scotland for their Lab Dim lapdogs too). The public now want to give Labour a right good kicking, hence they will come out and vote. In good numbers.
“Lucky the BNP aren’t standing in Crewe & Nant !”
Would they be successful if they were?
Are there THAT many Poles down there?
In your opinions,
will a high turnout favor the LibDems or the Tories?
23-Spain stayed left, but there was a slight shift rightwards in seat and % terms.
26. I think the BNP vote will gradually become a straightforward ex-labour vote. Not yet though.
27. Crewe: Massive Tory turnout. Tiny Labour turnout. Lib-dems might as well pack it in.
28. Did the newly non-illegal voters actually vote?
1. Are you not slightly disappointed by those figures, Stuart? It seems to me this scenario now may be just about as good as it gets: for pro-Independence forces in Scotland.
Think about it.
You have a truly unpopular Labour Opposition in Scotland - and a risible and contemptible government in Westminster.
By contrast, the SNP is in the first flush of government, enjoying a real honeymoon with the electorate.
Your party is also led by arguably the most skilful politician in the UK.
Oil is at the highest price it has ever recorded, and the dwindling of North Sea resources has yet to kick in.
Strikes me this is the “perfect storm” for Independence, yet still only a stubborn 31% of Scots approve of secession; the great majority want either no change or, at most, new powers for Holyrood.
I know you are pinning your hopes on a future Tory government striking terror into Scots, and driving them to the SNP, and creating an even better atmos for independence - but I think you possibly mistake this Cameron brand of Conservatives.
For a start Cameron just isn’t the kind of Tory that people hate - he’s too smooth and cuddly. Also the Tories remain genuine Unionists, I think, and will be very careful not to antagonise Scots voters (and these new Tories are deft and clever).
Finally, if the Tories do seem unpopular the Scots will be shielded from the “worst” of the Westminster government by Devolution itself. Which will therefore have proved itself.
Moreover in a couple of years your honeymoon may well be over and Salmond not quite so popular (this is surely inevitable); and the depletion, and eventual exhaustion, of Scottish oil will be more apparent.
Finall, as a Tory government takes power the Labour party will renew itself under a leader not so obviously duff as Brown, thereby improving their image north of the Border, too.
I think it is therefore arguable the time for a referendum is now, from a pro-independence perspective. You probably wouldn’t win it - but then again you might, especially if it becomes a vote on Labour and Brown.
Your chances of winning the referendum in a few years might, in contrast, actually be lower.
Just a thought from a very sunny Byzantium. Gule gule!
FYI there are just 9 weeks left of Parliament sitting before the Party Conferences.
Parliament is in recess from May 22 to June 2 and from
from 28 July to 27 September.
If C&N is bad for Labour i.e a loss to the Conservatives running into a 1,500+ majority, then MPs spend the following 11 days back in their Constituencies coming back to Parliament on June 3rd armed with the views of their activists.
If C&N is only a narrow win for the Conservatives (under 500), then Brown can easily limp on into the summer and the party conferences.
If Labour hold C&N Brown IMHO is safe for this year.
30 - I think you have a point there seanT, it would be the richest of ironies if the apparatus and systems that were designed to demolish the Conservatives in opposition were the source of benefit to the Conservatives in power.
27 That’s a good question, Phillipe, and in the circumstances I think the answer is “Both”. High turn-out is traditionally associated with a good-ish Lib Dem result, and it does seem that this is because non-voters have decided to turn out for once. However, in Crewe & Nantwich, the desire to get rid of Labour seems to be reaching epidemic proportions – so occasional Tories, switchers, reluctant Lib Dems, non-voters and others will swell the numbers.
Definitely not good for Labour in the circumstances, though.
Any updates on the ‘organised’ heckling and other cunning stunts? Is there photographic evidence that MPs were involved or have some bloggers go vivid imaginations.
If Lab do lose, will we read headlines like ‘Gordon’s Red Engine hits the Buffers.’ ‘Labour Derailed.’ ‘Gordon loses by points.’
As for ‘toffs’ don’t they buy the products of the Bentley factory at Crewe?
30 - agreed. As I (ahem) posted last week ago, calling Wendy’s bluff and going for a referendum now may well be the best strategic option for the SNP.
Ok here is my take on what little info has filtered through to me .
The 3 Nantwich rural wards will vote heavily Conservative on a high turnout something like
Con 10,000 Lab/LibDem 3,000 each
The 4 Crewe wards will vote pretty much a 3 way split hard to tell who will lead here but turnout will be lower say something like Con/Lab/LibDem 5,000 each
Total Con 15,000 Lab/LibDem 8,000 each .
Talking of tory sleaze, as one was yesterday, the ramifications of the Osborne case (no more than a small hand yesterday) are interesting. From the Times:
The scale of secret cash links between senior Conservatives and wealthy backers was revealed yesterday after George Osborne was told that he should have declared how his office was being funded. The Shadow Chancellor was the subject of a parliamentary investigation after it emerged that he failed to register almost £500,000 in donations. Donors had given the money to the Conservative Party but asked that it be used to bankroll Mr Osborne.
Ten other Shadow Cabinet ministers have also been benefiting from money channelled from Tory headquarters, the final report of the investigation said. In at least two cases the funding was from figures involved directly in the minister’s policy areas.
The office of Grant Shapps, the Tory housing spokesman, is funded by donations from a number of mortgage brokers and Andrew Lansley, the Shadow Health Secretary, was bankrolled by a healthcare firm, the documents showed. Theresa Villiers, who has the transport brief but was previously Shadow Treasury Chief Secretary, benefited from donations by a number of investment bankers.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3941867.ece
Overnight delegate update from over the pond. Obama +13 Clinton -1.
Obama picked up 8 pledged delegates from John Edwards, 4 SD’s and an extra pledged delegate from the certified North Carolina results that accordingly saw Hillary lose one :
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/15/171556/605/202/516444
Hello
I’ve been campaigning in Crewe North out of the Cross Keys pub sector office, mainly delivering off Badger Avenue, West st etc. Heavy Labour area normally (some one has to do it :0)). Badger Ave has lots of Labour posters but the rest of the streets only a couple each street. My surprise was it was only on Tuesday that I saw the first two Lib dem posters in this area of Crewe. There have been more Tory ones. Also the Libs are not delivering nearly as much literature as they do in other by elections. But a senior Lib dem friend told me they are putting most resources into Henley in anticipation. Considering I’m working the Labour heartland areas I’m getting a lot of die hard Labour voters who said they are not voting, they can’t bring themselves to vote Labour but can’t vote Tory. My lucky friends campaining in Nantwich and in the east and west of Crewe are saying our posters outnumber labour’s. Most activity of Labour seems to be in the North and South of crewe they are working their Hardcore vote areas. Not sure photoshop leaflets showing our candidate with a top hat, whilstwearing a fleece is the way to go though.
34 As for ‘toffs’ don’t they buy the products of the Bentley factory at Crewe?
That point was raised to me by a receptionist at Bentley, She said Labour seemed to have a problem with the people that keep a lot of the town employed. I think that was a wrong strategy.
39 Hi Admiral. PB expects Penketh Will Do His Duty !!
37 footsoldier You conveniently omit the committee’s judgement that Osborne deserves no criticism, and that all donations were declared to the Electoral Commission after advice from staff of the parliamentary watchdog.
To quote the BBC, “the Commons Standards and Privileges Committee ….. said it “would not be fair or reasonable to criticise him” over the money, which was not entered into the Register of Members’ Interests.
The money was given to Conservative Central Office and declared to the Electoral Commission.”
Something I posted earlier on a dead thread:
It’s been suggested that the scurrilous Labour campaign based on the Tory Toff might be a test-run for how such an approach would work against Cameron in a General…
Sorry if this has already been mentioned here, but if it hasn’t then I’d like to say that I think it’s a pretty poor basis from which to try and win any election
by Pimpernel May 15th, 2008 at 11:40 am
41. Hello Jack>
Always will I will be there tonight and Saturday afternoon, I’m the site engineer tommorrow morning, so will update this site Later on Saturday.
Once the suns over the yardarm Im cracking open the gin.
34 - Apparantly one campaign is getting fed up with the gratuitous railway metaphors. Also it is a long time since I was a child and immersed in Thomas the Tank Engine but wasn’t Gordon a green engine?
39. I don’t think I’ve ever met a “die hard” Labour voter. What do they look like? Are they blind and albino, or just slow-witted and shy? I’ve heard that some of them have vestigialm tails, but I’m not sure I believe this.
Anyway, I’d like to see one in the wild, before they finally go extinct. But they are confined to remote hillcountry and Liverpool, so it’s difficult.
‘Brown’s relaunch runs out of steam.’
‘Crewed tactics failed Labour.’
‘Timpson massive defeats Dunwoody crew.’
Has anyone sighted Brown’s latest relaunch in today’s papers?
43 - Assuming that that is the aim, they could be simply aiming to lose not too badly, in which case motivating the core vote might not be a bad idea.
46. And Broxtowe. Never forget Broxtowe.
44. Why wait Stuart ?!?!
47 - The papers are following the voting public and ignoring it.
45. I think your right, but I still posted 47 before reading your point.
31 Yes I think that’s about right. Anything more than a 1000 Tory majority will in all probability lead to early moves in the PLP to oust Gordon and given the weakness of his position it’s hard to see him holding on.
45, no Gordon was the bigger blue one who was always grumpy.
I knew pb.com would one day benefit from my colossal intellect:p
43, regarding the negative Toff campaigning idea: it won’t work for a number of reasons:
1) hypocrisy: Labour leadership is hardly comprised of former coal miners nowadays
2) Labour’s unpopular, and when someone you dislike tries to persuade you by being nasty it’s unlikely to endear you
3) Cameron’s popular at best and not disliked at worst. Brown, by contrast, is not popular with many
SeanT they lurk everywhere, particularly in publishing. You are probably no more than six feet away from one when you step off the plane on the way home.
34- No, that was Henry! Gordon was blue, as was Edward…
50. Ooppps … Stewart not Stuart. Force of habit.
Oh, and surely the headline will be “All change at Crewe”?
55
I thought that was only rats.
Just turned on my radio at 8.50 ish. Nicki Cambell on 5 live playing Bee Gees “its only words, and words are all I have, to take your heart away”, multi -overlaid with Gordo saying ” im getting on with the job. i only got about 30 secs of it. Did anyone else hear it?
“I know you are pinning your hopes on a future Tory government striking terror into Scots, and driving them to the SNP, and creating an even better atmos for independence - but I think you possibly mistake this Cameron brand of Conservatives.”
I think Sean probably has a point here but I can’t prove it. But I have long suspected that the notion that the Scottish people will automatically rise as one to demand their heroic soft-left independence following an English Tory election victory is one that is real only in the minds of the more excitable nationalists.
But feel free to quote this back at me in 2011 as negotiations for full separation commence!
59 - In the mind of seanT there is no difference between rodentine vermin and a Labour suppoter.
54.
“2) Labour’s unpopular, and when someone you dislike tries to persuade you by being nasty it’s unlikely to endear you”
Prejudices act as a magnifier imo. Makes people dislike someone *more* than they already do, if they do. If the target isn’t disliked then it backfires.
Only way it will work is if it touchs a raw nerve with Tories who then do something twattish because of it.
I may have missed it- can anyone say- when is the C&N result likely to be announced? Is anyone doing an exit poll?
O/T - Have a read about the PHI100 panel about C&N, none of the panel predict a Lib Dem victory. Look through the following article to see the names of some of the Lib Dem members of the panel. Interesting.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/politics/threelinewhip/may/libdemscrewe.htm
I suspect that huge numbers of traditonal Labour voters in Crewe are now so disillusioned or angry that they will just not turn up to vote, or even, in many cases, vote Tory or Lib Dem.
It’s going to be a comfortable win for Timpson IMO.
40 I think the Toff thing is 180′ in the wrong direction.
I think the public have had a gutful of self-made, jumped up, newly middle class politicians (and their wives) from all parties creaming off as much as they can get from their short time of fame and fortune as typified by the various books and chat show appearances by ex ministers at the moment.
Personally the feeling I get now is that the public are positively looking forward to putting the country in the hands of people who they know will not be doing it for financial gain, and who just might bring back some honour and decorum to our Government.
A return to the days when a politician in charge of a department where something goes wrong resigns immediately ( Lord Carrington and William Whitelaw spring to mind) instead of hanging on for dear life because of the extra £65,000 would be a very good thing for politics in my opinion.
The result from the one byelection last night
Poole UA Branksome East Con hold
Con 923 LibDem 750
2007 result Con 943/817 Ind 577 LibDem 353/332
59 sheepdip No, it is political activists of the leftward sort.
Closet Tories are about eight feet away at any time as they are more dispersed tending to congregate in leafy places. LibDems, thankfully, are much, much further apart and quite easy to spot.
Maybe “Full steam ahead! Crewe results signals new platform for Cameron?”
67, and I write that post as a self-made, jumped up, grammar school boy myself.
High court just ruled MP’s MUST disclose their expenses. (Breaking news on Politics home)
63. They haven’t, and won’t. Cameron and his team are far too smart to respond to this stuff, just ignore it and continue to push your own agenda. It may get the core Labour vote, however it will turn off many other former labour voters, and mkae the tories look progressive and new, while labour look old and tired.
65 - pretty naive of Clegg to be on the panel, don’t you think? “Leader doesn’t expect candidate to win in Crewe”
Crewesing to Disaster
Crewe Sings the Blues
Crewe Overboard
Crewed Campaign Crushed
75 - Indeed, but he wasn’t labelled Calamity Clegg for nothing!
If its a big Tory win. How about “Crewecified”
Crewe’s Control for Cameron
79 - If it’s a *really* big win, “Goodbye, Crewel World”?
79 very good!
41
Are Bentleys still made there? Rolls Royce moved to Goodwood!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolls-Royce_Motor_Cars
Any chance on anyone opening a book on Guido?
Odds on the following:-
1. He’ll break his three month restraining order/curfew etc and get banged up.
2. He’ll get caught driving during his three year ban and get banged up.
As a libertarian Guido probably thinks its curbing his individual freedom to prevent him driving whilst pissed and uninsured.
Tories Crew fail in Crewe
Crewel fate for Tory hopes
42
Well Osborne was censured, but ht eCommittee accepted that he was stupid rather than evil. That is why I said if looked like a small cloud. The Tories problem is that it brings to light the fact that three other spokesmen seemed to be wholly owned subisidiaries of healthcare firms, mortgage brokers, and hotel owners.
More on the story
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/16/conservatives
Crewe Cut for Labour
Gordon’s Screwed
This truly is pb.com at it’s finest
Daily Mail this morning apparently LOL
http://www.order-order.com/2008/05/is-that-legal-in-scotland.html
68 “A return to the days when a politician in charge of a department where something goes wrong resigns immediately ( Lord Carrington and William Whitelaw spring to mind) instead of hanging on for dear life ”
as Michael Howard did, you mean?
68
If Timpson is a Toff because he lives in a £1 million mansion,what does that make Tony and the Vulgarian who have two houses alone worth £ 4 million each?
Dealing with the stupid charade in Crewe is easy- have a man with a placard walking behind them at all times reading “The man in front is a LABOUR idiot”. How long would they go on doing it?
87. I did say ‘politicians from all parties’
84 footsoldier He was not censured if you read the report. In fact the Committee made a very clear statement that it was not appropriate even to criticise him.
All the other shadows had declared the details to the Commissioner who said they had no case to answer.
You and Hazel Blears are flogging a dead horse. I wonder why?
68 I don’t think Whitelaw resigned over any policy issue - he retired because he had a mild stroke.
God i can’t wait til Hazel Blears is drummed out of office. Watching her face on election night is going to be a dream.
92 - He offered to resign over the intruder in the Queen’s bedroom though and Thatcher rejected it.
Brown’s Crewe go down with sinking ship…..
or
Brown’s Crewe abandon sinking ship
Crewel and unusual punishment.
“Crewecified” I love it!
As for Nick Clegg not saying Shenton will win, I must defend him here. Just because you agree to be on the panel doesn’t mean that every day you answer all questions I’d hae thought. Certainly Lord Rennard will be too busy campaigning in Crewe to fill in blog questionnaires.
LibDems have failed Crewe but let’s not unfairly tarnish them as disloyal to the candidate.
97 If The Sun use it, would I get a fee???
On puns I really enjoyed Private Eye on Boris: “Toff on crime, Toff on the causes of crime”
Sean T, do you post on Comment is free as Pike Bishop? Thought I saw your style there earler?
98 you should!
Looks like MP’s will have to make full disclosure!!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/16/houseofcommons
A dead horse? All the papers have a story on “cash for influence”
This is the Independent:
Senior Shadow Cabinet figures in row over ‘cash for influence’
By Ben Russell, Political Correspondent
Friday, 16 May 2008
The shadow Chancellor was found to have broken the rules by failing to declare £500,000 which had been channelled through Tory HQ from donors to run his office
Senior members of the Shadow Cabinet have been accused of potential conflicts of interest after their offices were shown to be funded by companies that have direct interests in their policy portfolios.
Tories in trouble
George Osborne
The shadow Chancellor was found to have broken the rules by failing to declare £500,000 which had been channelled through Tory HQ from donors to run his office.
Alan Duncan
The shadow Business Secretary received funds from Ian Taylor, the president and chief executive of Vitol oil company, who is a former colleague of Mr Duncan.
Grant Shapps
The housing spokesman took tens of thousands of pounds in cash from five companies linked to his portfolio.
Andrew Lansley
The shadow Health Secretary received funds from London Secure Services and Julian Schild, who owned a medical equipment company, Huntleigh Technology, the largest manufacturer of NHS beds, until last year.
Jeremy Hunt
The shadow Culture Secretary, whose brief includes tourism, received funds from the chairman of the Conservative Tourism Taskforce, John Lewis, also a former chairman of the British Tourism Authority.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/senior-shadow-cabinet-figures-in-row-over-cash-for-influence-829305.html
31. seanT
Thanks for your thoughts Sean. Interesting as always. I do not have the time to provide a well-presented, researched response. But in summary: the “Perfect Storm” is only just building up over the Atlantic, it is yet to sweep in over the British Isles.
Secondly, I am absolutely delighted with polls like this at present, because our first objective is actually to have an independence referendum! Full stop. We will be absolutely delighted if it ever takes place at all. We have to get the Referendum (Scotland) Bill onto the statute book first. And polls like this are wonderful, because they lull our Unionist opponents into a false sense of security
As renowned psephologist John Curtice said in last week’s Scotland on Sunday: ‘If Labour thinks it knows how the public will vote then it is in the minority’
http://news.scotsman.com/opinion/The-end-of-a-beautiful.4071550.jp
Nick Robinson wasn’t giving much for Gordon’s chances of surviving a year on Today this morning. He was on about 0820 if anyone wants to listen again.
he was discounting how difficult it was to dislodge a sitting Labour PM by noticing that all it took to get Tony Blair to agree to go early was a minor backbench revolt and the resignation of a few PPSs.
97 - OK, maybe he hasn’t answered the Crewe question. But his being on the panel still looks naive to me.
If Tamsin unexpectedly pulls it off “Dunwoody Dungoody” or “Tory Toffers Topped”!
104 - It would take a bit more than half a dozen stooge PPS’s this time though.
61 Apparently Gordon is a big Bee Gees fan: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3941755.ece
This allowed them to text-in of his favourite tune and play a medley of ‘Tragedy’, ‘Lonely Days’, ‘Staying Alive’ etc
107: Laughably Brown’s mates are using ‘it’s very difficult to remove Gordon’ as a reason to keep him. This is probably not so, but they’ll give him a chance to go quietly first.
“Tory shoe-in at Crewe”?
“Gordon gets the boot after shoe toff’s landslide win”?
Labour scrapes in by 1 vote after they give an old lady a lift to the polls at the last minute…
“It was Nan which won it”
I’ll get my coat.
85. True Blue in Crewe
Labour Simply Hasn’t Got a Crewe. or Labour’s Creweless
[67][72] I don’t think that Whitelaw ever actually resigned as a matter of honour, I rather thought he quit in 1987 because he knew that Margaret wasn’t listening to him any more. Mind you, the Single European Act was his finest hour, so perhaps he was just quitting while he was ahead.
That of course does not detract from your general point. Or indeed from the fact that the Cameron government will have in its majority far more people like yourself than “toffs” - who are probably like the little girl in the nursery rhyme.
Our Genial Host has written of how he became disillusioned with serving as a councillor, and I well recall seeing the whole history of New Labour flash before my eyes in 1990. I’d been offered a safe seat on Hackney Council but had to turn it down because I was mendaciously told by my (Tory council) employer that I worked in a politically restricted post (they then turned to my ex-wife!) - thank God for that, because Hackney managed to lose the payroll data for its education ancillary staff (caretakers, dinner ladies etc) in the ILEA abolition handover, and they weren’t paid for weeks. I went batsh*t, not least because none of the local politicians were prepared to resign, and left the Party.
Days spent regretting that decision? None.
“Shoe toff kicks Gordon in the ballots”
Perhaps Gord could replace the late and lamented Humpf and host ‘I’m Sorry I haven’t a Crewe’
Coldstone: Bentley was bought by VW - Rolls Royce by BMW.
I think VW thought they had bought RR but the Aero engine company owned the Trade mark (and it reverted to them if there was a sale). This may be one of those myths but if not it teaches you to check the small print and don’t trust the lawyers.
114 - “Well heeled shoe heir adds to Cameron’s shine”
Crewe signals end of the line for Labour.
Crewe signals Gordon’s run out of steam.
Crewe sends wrong signals to Clegg’s Liberals.
Change here at Crewe.
Campaign mansgers need retraining.
Meanwhile on the BBC website next Friday morning:
King: “A very bad result for the Tories”
115
you need humour and charisma to host that programme. Gordo isnt exactly ideally suited…..
[38] - Indeed, it stinks, but given the Ecclestone affair, and doubtless numerous other such donations, this is a problem of sleaze affecting the entire political establishment. It’s no wonder few of them thought it was a big deal to stop the BAe bribes investigation by the SFO.
I can think of two changes that might help things.
1. Limit spending on political campaigning. The billboards, etc, are pretty pointless and add little to political discourse, but very expensive. Tightly restrict political spending and you make it easier for political parties to fund themselves from member ship subscriptions and small donations.
2. The Opposition is Her Majesty’s Opposition, so it makes sense for them to have a modest civil service staff to provide information and research that would enable them to carry out their function of holding HMG to account. Then there would be no question of companies buying access and influence in such a direct way as in this case.
Crewe jumps ship
Labour are Through but Can’t Switch.
“As the returning officer of time declares the result of destiny, I notice that I’m out of a job”
119. Lib Dem Voice - ‘a great result for the Lib Dems’
(whatever the result actually is)
125: It won’t be that important a result if Labour lose but if they win it’ll be ‘a disaster for the Tories in an area they need to be winning in and just proof that they can’t win in the North’.
115: Will the lovely Samantha be visiting Crewe? Add your own double entrendes.
Aaron - Think that already happened to Humph!
OT: I see on CNN that Obama is only 137 delegates from clinching the nomination now. Any idea how many more he is expected to win from pledged delegates (thus how many SDs are still required to finalise it).
Samantha is unable to be with us today as she has been appointed returning officer in Crewe and Nantwich. She is looking forward to receiving sizeable deposits from the candidates.
I thought Samantha (AKA Gemma Garrett) was standing against Mr Timpson at Crewe and Nantwich
Labour (and prob Lib Dems) cheesed off by result.
For those interested in Senate races there is a poll from SUSA on New Mexico:
GOP Primary:
Pearce 49 Wilson 46
General:
Udall 60 Pearce 36
Udall 61 Wilson 35
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8873e7c5-a311-44e2-b01b-9df0a53afa30
Welcome to Carry On Political Betting.
#31 Sean T; #103 Stuart Dickson
Sean T-You may of course turn out to be right that there will never be a better time than now for a referendum on Scottish independence but consider this-the next scheduled election in Scotland is the EU election in 2009. Historically the SNP records its best percentage support in an EU election.
Already ALL Scottish MEPS are concerned that the number of Scottish seats will be reduced further from 7 to 6 MEPs. This, as it happens, is the absolute minimum that any independent state (e.g Luxembourg, Estonia) is entitled to. The smaller than Scotland Republic of Ireland has 13 MEPS-and a seat at the “top table”. I would expect the SNP to point this out very forcefully next year and for this and other reasons to produce their highest ever % support in a Scottish election, comfortably topping the poll
This will potentially provide an even better springboard than now to success in an independence referendum.
#41, 82, 116 Bentley still manufactured in Crewe on Pyms Lane iirc.
The signs when you enter Crewe say something like Crewe the Home of Bentley Cars (used to say Rolls Royce [Icarus gives the reason why it no longer says that!]).
Still a big employer in the area.
121 What, are you trying to kill off political activity completely?
“1. Limit spending on political campaigning. The billboards, etc, are pretty pointless and add little to political discourse, but very expensive. Tightly restrict political spending and you make it easier for political parties to fund themselves from member ship subscriptions and small donations.”
One of the main reasons for low turnout in elections is people not knowing there is an election on. Without the billboards … ?
One of the main reasons people have stopped being members of political parties is the constant demands for donations.
Personally, I stopped going to meetings of my local party because they were mainly geared around the next ceilidh or race night, with very little actual politics.
133 - Perfect cue for Gordon: “Infamy, infamy, they’ve all got it in-for-me”
135 - “Personally, I stopped going to meetings of my local party because they were mainly geared around the next ceilidh or race night, with very little actual politics.”
I have similar issues with my local party that is like a glorified social club rather than a vehicle for promoting a vision.
Labour’s Gordian knot problem
is the theme in this week’s Tribune.
http://tinyurl.com/53m7el
Of course the original Gordian knot was solved by a person called Alexander cutting it.
113 Well I’m an ex-councillor in another London Borough and the selection process there certainly didn’t involve offering people safe seats. It was pretty competitive. IMO people - certainly in the Labour Party - are never “offered” seats.
#129 [Philip]
There’s a delegate calculator here.
Following Kentucy and Oregon, it seems likely Obama will have clinched the pledged delegate lead for good, and that then brings him the bonus of 8 Super Delegates in the Pelosi club.
“A knuckle Nantwich for the clunking fist.”
“Never was so much borrowed to pay so many to save Crewe.”
139
‘IMO people-certainly in the Labour Party-are never ‘offered’seats’
Isn’t that exactly what has happened with Dunwoody in Crewe?
129: He should get about 100 pledged delegates from the remaining races. (That assumes that nobody gets seated for Michigan or Florida, but in fact they’ll probably be seated, as least in part, as Obama wins either way.)
Factor in the add-ons (who tend to go with the winners of their state) and the “Pelosi Club” who have said they’ll back the pledged delegate winner and he wins even if the remaining superdelegates all back Clinton.
So the only way he loses this is if lots of his delegates (super or otherwise) change their minds, or if he drops out or dies.
Last para of Ms Toybee’s article in todays Guardian: “Meanwhile, until the byelection, the big question is suspended. Whether it’s better to dump him or keep him is in abeyance. But if the Crewe result is as bad as feared, expect the dumpists to get vocal again. Remember, it’s not just some 130 backbenchers, but senior cabinet ministers - Jackie Smith, Ed Balls and James Purnell among them - with seats at risk at the next election.”
No point sticking with Gordon if you want to be the next Leader of The Labour Party (2009) Ltd [the phoenix party after the old one went bust in 2008!] if you are not going to keep your seat. Which of the contenders are likely to be no longer with us?
142 as in… as long as you campaign when you should have been given time for grieving, we will give you the candidacy?
Whatever happened to our British sense of “doing the right thing”?
142 About 60 people applied for the Crewe candidacy, they were shortlisted down to 5 (the NEC shortlists for by-elections, although it’s done locally in normal circumstances), and Dunwoody was selected at a meeting of Crewe members who would have used an exhaustive ballot to pick one of the 5. It’s very rare nowadays for candidates to be imposed on local parties - used to happen quite a lot in the 80s and 90s when the trots were still powerful at local level.
144, Balls’ notional seat is Morley & Outwood. It should be very solidly Labour.
With apologies to the Sun:
“Crewe-and-Nantwich-vote-ballistic: Gordon-is-atrocious”
143 - I agree that Obama’s key objective between now and the Convention should be not to die. He should then go on not dying right through to at least election day and ideally throughout his Presidency. As a relatively young man, I would advise him to continue not dying for a dignified period after his Presidency, but that is a personal decision more than a political imperative.
Of course, if Gordon Brown is ousted as a result of the by-election, the headline would have to be “Crewedunnit”.
‘Voters cross over party lines to make point at Crewe.’
‘Danger signalled at Crewe.’
‘Clegg runs into the buffers.’
‘Labour uncouple Gordon.’
Jilted John
“Gordon is a moron”.
149 - Presidents elected directly from the Senate don’t have a good record. The last two (JFK and Warren Harding) died in office.
‘Labour recreweting for a new leader’
137. Goodness, some of the younger Tories on here are very po-faced, aren’t they? Almost as bad as the joyless Labour puritans they seek to supplant.
153. Eh? Was that their fault, then? Being assasinated counts as not having ‘a good record’?
156 - You misunderstand me.
137 What’s “race night” at the Conservative club? The mind boggles!
Gordon was the Big Engine - the most powerful and fastest engine on the Island of Sodor (between Biggar Bank, Walney and the Isle of Man) Though from Granny’s house on Biggar Bank we could occasionally see the mythical Isle of Man but never Sodor). I am afraid that Gordon used to look down his nose at the lesser slower engines. This occassionally got him in to trouble.
156, well it’s not very positive from their perspective:p
157 - What I meant was that they don’t have a very good record of surviving their term, they are unlucky. It was a response to James’ sarcastic post.
Having said that if JFK had not been assassinated I don’t think he would have been very successful. He had no domestic achievements and no sign of any.
159 Needed a push from Ed(ward) to get up Gordon’s Hill and needed help to be pulled out of a ditch. Dirty Engine.
[144] - Interesting to note the change in oil price during Labour’s term of office (not that they have any control of it) from $11 to $125 that she cites. That’s an annualised oil inflation rate of nearly 125%!
164 Interesting, when you put it like that the fact we’ve been able to carry on more or less as normal is quite remarkable.
116
Yes you should always read the small print. The Americans thought they were buying Tower bridge, they were disappointed to find they’d bought London Bridge, I think its now in Arizona.
‘Crewe win signals Labour revival.’
‘Labour shunted off by voters.’
‘Dave Crewes to victory.’
‘Lib Dem revival goes off the rails.’
I know others have already pointed it out, but Laddies’ 5/6 Obama Next President simply has to be taken.
155 - There is a good word I think that applies, balance!
Signs of ineptness or desperation at the top of the Lib Dems?
First they dump their PPC in C&N. Then they only mount a half hearted campaign and now their top people clearly don’t think they have any chance of winning it. There are far fewer signs of their MPs campaigning in C&N compared to Ealing.
So why bother to dump their candidate in the first place? They could have left them in place and avoided all the local schisms that followed.
Is the truth that the LDs were feeling desperate and took a wild risk on a hopeless cause?
146. You mention 60 applicants reduced to 5. Any names of the other 4 on the final list?
157. Try writing more clearly, then.
O/T - If your fat it’s all your fault, everything apparantly.
http://