Sean Fear’s Friday Slot
May 16th, 2008
Looking at the details of the Mayoral result?
London Elects has now released ward-level data for the Mayoral and Assembly elections. It will provide hours of fun for political anoraks such as myself, and I’ve barely scratched the surface of it. I have, however, come to several conclusions.
Firstly, Labour’s core vote strategy, which depended on portraying Johnson as a bigoted Hooray Henry, was successful across much of London. Overall, there was an average swing of 7.4% (on first preferences) across London, compared to 2004, from Livingstone to Johnson. Yet, in two boroughs, Tower Hamlets, and Newham, there were actually swings to Livingstone, of 8.9%, and 4.2% respectively, largely due to the fact that people who voted Respect in 2004, voted for Livingstone this time.
But in each borough, Johnson recorded some of the lowest increases in his overall vote share. In Brent, the swing to Johnson was kept down to 1.3%; in Hackney 1.4%; in Waltham Forest 2.6%, in Haringey 3.6%, and in Harrow, 4.6%. What all these boroughs have in common, of course, is a very high proportion of ethnic minority voters, and in particular, Muslim voters. Islamic organisations campaigned relentlessly for Livingstone. In the case of Haringey, and Hackney, a high proportion of left wing middle class voters also helped Livingstone. Had these boroughs been representative of all London, Livingstone would have won handsomely.
Secondly, it’s quite clear where Labour’s core vote strategy was completely unsuccessful. Some Conservative-inclined boroughs recorded gigantic swings to Johnson. In Havering, it was 15%; in Bexley 14.9%; in Bromley 14.2%, in Hillingdon 12.1%; in Kensington & Chelsea 10.7%, and in Wandsworth 10%. Conservative voters were highly motivated to vote for Johnson.
Thirdly, it’s quite clear among which groups Livingstone most heavily lost support, compared to 2004. White working class voters switched very heavily against him. Every ward but one on the Becontree estate, in Barking, was won by Johnson. These wards were held by Labour in 1968, and are often left uncontested by the Conservatives in local elections. New Addington and Fieldway, huge council estates in Croydon, were both won by Johnson. St. Helier, another historic Labour stronghold, in Merton, likewise fell. South Bermondsey, which has probably not elected a Conservative since before the First World War, was carried by Johnson. Indeed, Southwark as a whole recorded a swing of 10.1% to Johnson, heavily concentrated in the wards making up Simon Hughes’ Old Southwark and Bermondsey constituency, which contains both white working class voters, and many more affluent residents in riverside developments. London’s white working class voters shifted towards the Conservatives in the 1980s, but the wards I’ve just mentioned would never have been regarded as Conservative targets in that decade.
Additionally, more affluent, centrist voters, also shifted strongly against Livingstone. Richmond, and Kingston, both narrowly carried by Livingstone in 2004, showed swings to Johnson of 12% and 10.2% respectively. Wards like Winchmore Hill, Southgate Green, Brondesbury Park, and Hampstead Town, won by Livingstone, were all carried by Johnson this time. This shift, and not just high turnout among core Conservatives, also explains Johnson’s success in Wandsworth, where, again, Livingstone led in 2004.
Finally, and probably unsurprisingly, it’s clear that Jewish voters backed Johnson by an enormous margin. Garden Suburb, Golders Green, Hendon, and Edgware wards, in Barnet were all more than 30% Jewish, at the time of the 2001 census. They favoured Johnson over Livingstone by margins of 52.5%, 40.8%, 43.2%, and 50.3%, respectively, with swings ranging from 7.4% to 14.3% The one ward that Johnson carried in Hackney was Springfield, with its big Hasidic population, and it gave him a swing of 6.1%, the highest in that borough.
There was just one by-election last night, on Poole Unitary Council, Branksome East. The result was Conservative 923, Lib Dem 750, a Conservative hold, with a big swing to the Liberal Democrats.
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Thanks Sean.
So, what, if anything, does this tell us about the general election in London?
Also, whats your felling about Crewe and Nantiwhich? Will the Tories pull it off? Or will Labour hang on?
1. Very silly man. Nevertheless, HIPS are so unpopular that I doubt there will be too much outcry.
2 - I suspect it tells us little. Boris is a larger than life character, and his presence swung the assembly vote too. Most MPs are just a bit duller, and some are even duller than Paddick.
Now Crewe certainly isn’t London, but surely a strong showing by Boris amongst the white working class augurs
well for the Conservatives in C&N?
Well done Sean - another excellent article. I’ve had a look at the ward data & will aim to do another tidied-up version similar to the 2004 results. A cursory glance confirmed that Boris did indeed clean up as expected in the areas where Ken surprisingly won in 2004 such as Richmond, and also that Ken only just won Barking & Dagenham on first preferences. I think the BNP may have only won the second preference vote in two wards in B&D, Alibon and Goresbrook, but obviously full analysis will have to await a properly-formatted spreadsheet. Will also be interested to see how many wards Boris won the 2nd prefs on (none for Norris in 2004!).
Presumably he declared an interest every time he spoke in the Commons on the subject. If he didn’t he would be in very serious trouble.
On the matter of the LDs in Crewe, what they may now be focusing on is overtaking Labour into 2nd place as this may force Brown out.
Canvassing would by now give a very good insight into how far has the Labour vote crumbled since the 10p announcement.
Whilst they may now be drumming up support their blogs are bereft of feedback from their presence in Crewe and as we see on PHI their leaders see 1st place as unlikely.
Of course a sizable chunk of the votes have already been cast.
Has Boris been seen at C&N yet? Rather a lot on his plate at the moment, clearly, but would be interesting to see how he is received there.
2 - I think that if you take London along with Council wins such as Southampton and the surprising addition of Conservatives in Sunderland and parts of the North and elsewhere could we be seeing the start of a seismic shift in the demographics of the different parties support? If so the election could become predictable in terms of general outcome but unpredictable in terms of scale and individual results etc.
8. I wouldn’t be surprised if Labour fell behind the Lib-Dem’s in C&N. But what happens if they even fall behind the lovely Gemma?
8 - It will be interesting to watch the betting markets once rumours from Postal votes come out.
10. So what your saying is that we could see bigger swings in some of Labour’s safer seats as opposed to the national average, and at least a few of those swings may result in surprise losses?
8 - This would make sense, and would fit in with the Nick Clegg comments noted on the previous blog. If Gordon Brown finishes third in Crewe & Nantwich, surely that would not have been factored into the “exit Brown” market?
If the Lib Dems have not given up in C&N, is it conceivably possible they think they can push Labour into third. I can’t in all conscience see them winning it…. Apologies if this has been mentioned before?
13 - Yes
Why have labour fiddled the postal votes at C & N?
oops just seen 8 ignore 15
2. I think the GLA constituency results give a better picture of what we can expect at the next general election than the Mayoral results.
That should read “Why? Have Labour……”
8 Keep up the Conservative Central Office spinning line HF , do they pay you for this ?
Sean, good analysis, as ever. You mentioned the success, in part, of the Bigoted Hooray Henry strategy used by Labour against Johnson. I can see that the ‘Bigoted’ part must have had an effect as Livingstone polled well in areas with a high percentage of ethic minorities. However, the same can’t be said about the Hooray Henry aspect as, on your analysis, white working class areas moved very strongly over to the Tories. Perhaps this provides a good verdict on the likely effectiveness of their anti-toff strategy
By all means let Labour continue with their anti-toff strategy in C&N. It will weaken them not the Tories. Parties in decline try to shore up their core vote: the last 25% of the electorate. In the case of the Tories the issues were immigration and the EU. In the case of Labour it is chippiness and envy. The dangers for Labour from this strategy, however, are far greater than they were for the Tories.
Firstly, whereas at least the Eurosceptics had some idealism, some vision of what sort of country they wanted, even if it was one with which most of us disagreed, the Labour strategy is entirely negative What’s wrong with parents bringing up their children in a loving family and making sacrifices to give them the best start in life. What is different about vilifying someone for being born to rich parents, from victimising someone for being black? It’s obviously unfair. Consequently, it offends the idealism of activists: witness the recent complaints in the Guardian and accusations that Labour has become the nasty party.
Secondly, it leaves the Labour hierarchy open to accusations of hypocrisy. Harman, the Milliband freres and Hilary Benn all come from political dynasties. Kelly, Darling and Balls all went to elite private schools. Many in the hierarchy are rich with copper-bottomed pension schemes the rest of us can only dream about. I’m sure I’ve missed many off the list because the list is so long and the seam so rich.
So don’t get angry about the anti-toff strategy; just smile. It’s a sign of their weakness. For in the intellectual barrenness that is Labour, nowadays, only the chippiness and envy remain.
Pathetic stuff, HF (80). It is only you Tories who are spinning that the Lib Dem leadership has given up in C&N. And you say it all about twenty times. You do get very tedious, you know.
21 - how do you interpret the PoliticsHome poll then? Bearing in mind that Nick Clegg is one of the panellists?
11 If Labour comes 3rd then Brown will be gone by the end of the month.
22. I think that’s a very sound analysis. I *think* white working class voters were unmoved by the anti-toff part of Labour’s strategy, and reacted strongly against what they perceived as favouritism towards ethnic minorities. I think the anti-toff strategy was offensive to both core Conservatives and to affluent floating voters in London. So, I do think that toff-bashing certainly cost Labour voters overall.
Thanks Sean.
……………………….
New ARG primary Polls for Kentucky and Oregon :
Kentucky
Clinton 65% .. Obama 29%
Oregon
Clinton 45% .. Obama 50%
http://americanresearchgroup.com/
As was pointed out on a previous thread, Antifrank (24), at least once, there is no evidence that Nick Clegg even took part in that particular survey.
That is all the substance that you Tories have to spin from. How stupid can you get? And how stupid do you think everybody else is?
If Miss GB might pushes them into 4th. He’d be gone by the end of the week
28 - If everything is so spiffing why are your posts increasingly insulting and intemperate?
24 Simply that they don’t think that the LibDems will win Crewe and nor do I , that does not mean that you do not work hard for every single vote and the best possible result .
28 - I’m not a Tory.
10. Interesting. We could be seeing the rise of identity politics, with the Tories increasingly attracting white voters of all backgrounds while Labour is the party of ethnic minorities, a narrow stratum of white liberal lefties, and a diminishing rump of tribal working class voters. A pattern much more like that seen in the US. The Lib Dems are going to get very squeezed in this scenario, too.
26. I DON’T KNOW - I have just been rejected for a job because they thought i was a toff (Good News for Mark Senir there
)
I do think that the lower classes do hate people they percieve to be of a higher class.
22. The problem for London Labour at the next GE is not only that their anti-toff campaign failed against Boris and will certainly fail against the even less obviously toffy Cameron, but also that their racist bigot line will not hold.
Boris is not a racist and one or two years in City Hall will confirm it. As a result, those communities who fell for Labour’s ‘you can’t trust the Tories ‘cos they’re all closet racists’ line are unlikely to believe it of the national party or their local Conservative candidate in 2009/10.
This will be an immense help for the Tory campaign in places like Tooting, where Labour’s tactics of fear and division helped hold the line in many foreign-born communities in 2005.
The key is the mass exodus of white working class voters away from their traditional labour support. Should this happen in C & N (and I think it will) then it could be disastrous for Labour.
Labour painted Boris as an ogre and mobilised the muslim vote for Ken, yet they still lost. In 2012 Labour could see their vote radically reduced when the muslim voters look back on 4 years of Boris as a benign Mayor.
Just reposting my question from the previous thread.
I’m sure I’m missing something but I notice there are two bets there regarding Gordon’s ceasing to be PM:
a) Before the end of 2008 — 6/1
b) Before a 2010 election — 20/1
Surely if a) comes to pass then b) also comes to pass. So why not just bet on b) and get the better odds? Can anyone explain?
Thanks Sean - good analysis as always, and great to see the analysis validating yours and others’ predictions on this site during the campaign.
Mark Senior’s bleak assessment of the Lib Dems’ prospects in C+N has sealed the deal for me and I plan to pile in for a bit more on the Tories. I am convinced they will double up in Henley no matter what the Lib Dems throw at them - I would expect Boris to make a high profile visit in support of the Tory candidate and allow the candidate to ride home on his tails in the most conspicuous way.
Brown is toast but that is not to say that it won’t be a slow, lingering political death. Watching how the country has turned on him will be a chastening lesson for all would-be leaders - a hero a year ago for not crying when abject quasi-terrorists failed to burn an automatic door, he could now single-handedly extinguish a fire in a childrens hospital and be accused of wasting water.
I still believe he will be in No.10 on the morning of the next general election, in 2010. Bags packed.
30. Indeed. The more swivel-eyed Lib Dem posters have been getting increasingly batey in recent weeks.
It’s understandable, as their entire world view, based on the extrapolation of the 1992-2001 period into the indefinite future, is collapsing.
31 - I respect that answer You still haven’t explained, however, why if you think that the Lib Dems would be pouring resources into Crewe & Nantwich (which, Tressage, for the avoidance of doubt, I am happy to accept they are) which could usefully be employed elsewhere. The theory put forward by HF seemed entirely reasonable in the circumstances.
I am glad that the LDs seem to have woken up and re-focused on C&N. If they did drive Labour into 3rd it could get Brown out. I also win a little at 14 to 1.
Alternatively are the LDs more worried about their vote share declining in C&N and what that does to their Northern Leader?
40 - “It’s understandable, as their entire world view, based on the extrapolation of the 1992-2001 period into the indefinite future, is collapsing.”
I must admit that made me smile…
42. Not so much Nick Clegg being Neil Kinnock but Michael foot!
30. Perhaps he just gets a bit annoyed when Conservatives presume tell us what they think’s going on in the Lib Dems as if it’s fact. It’s almost as annoying as when certain people from your party presume to tell us what a Liberal really is, as if they know. This is an arrogant side of certain Tories that seems hard to shift.
38 - assume it means in 2010, before an election. So quite unlikely to come in as if he hangs on 18 months until 2010 he won’t then go before an election.
Excellent article Sean. Thanks a lot.
So what messages can we take from the campaign and the election?
Class does not seem to be an issue to the electorate.
Race works as a core vote strategy for BME voters but can alienate the white working class.
Safe Labour seats are not necessarily safe.
Conservatives are winning the middle class and the centre in real elections.
35,37 Those are both good points. I expect that Labour won’t be able to match this year’s performance in wards with large ethnic minority populations, next time, once they see that Johnson isn’t a racist. But I expect the white working class voters will be hard for them to get back.
33 Hopefully not, once ethnic minority voters see he’s not an ogre.
29 The end of the day even……
45. No less so when Lib Dems or Labour go on about Nasty greedy Tories and Toffs etc.
42 We never stopped focussing on C&N except in your spinning posts .
40 We can never become as batty as the viscerable hatred of the LibDems in your every post shows you to be .
51. Cnut!
52. Sorry i take that back - just pissed off that i was rejected for another job on class basis. Don’t rib people about unemployment - not funny!
Paddy Power now 3/1 on Brown leaving this year, Will Hill only 5/2!
As Obama said, “Something’s going on…”
So is there any evidence of the LDs diverting resource to Henley as Mark Senior and Tressage vehemently deny that LD resources are being targeted elsewhere and call me a CCHQ troll or similar?
Well here is a letter to LDs from the LD Deputy Director of Campaigns (UK) begging for help NOW in Henley..
http://tinyurl.com/6ngedx
“we really need bodies on the ground now”
Says it all really.
The Director (Hilary) is up in C&N and the Deputy can be spared to focus on Henley where the Conservatives have not even started to select a candidate let alone actually call a by election….
38 What if there isn’t an election in 2010!
51 – Breath taking hypocrisy Mr Senior.
No one does ‘batty’ quite like you! ;:
51: Mark, I’ve had heated political discussions about many subjects with people of every political persuasion under the sun, but only the Lib Dems pouted and didn’t come down the pub afterwards.
55. It seems a strange set of priorities to ditch a “live” campaign for a latent one. They might not even call a by-election in Henley.
55 Lib Dems do multi-tasking, HF. Don’t worry. And as a national party we have activists north and south.
Is Shapps going to resign (like Whitelaw and Carrignton?)
51. What does ‘viscerable’ mean? Is it a spelling mistake caused by over-frenetic typing? Steady on, old chap.
54 There’s a large flock of vultures over Hyde Park heading the direction of Downing Street…….
My dear Antifrank, I really do apologise. I called you a Tory. I hope you will understand that I got carried away by an upsurge of irritation and I didn’t really mean to insult you.
On the other hand, the tone you adopt does sound a bit Tory at times. Pax.
58 I am frequently in the pub especially if there is a bar billiard table there .
Thanks Sean. Helps explain my surprise at just how many votes Boris AND Ken received. Cannot be that common to increase one’s vote by a quarter and get soundly beaten!
53 Martin Day. I understand that your job interview panel felt you looked too much like Kinnock. Allllllllllllrighttttttttttttt.
Better luck next time.
55: What an odd move less than a week before C&N votes.
If Brown does go, I wonder if there are any big jobs out there for him. Is the IMF looking for someone?
2014 A tired, failed Cameron goes cap in hand to Gordon Brown.
66.
BTW He’d been previously turned down by President(e) Blair.
66 lmao
33. I disagree. I think like everything else the country is becoming more & more fragmented politicall. What happens in one area doesn’t necessarily point correlate with what happens in another. See Stevenage for example. Local council monolithically Labour, even now. How is Stevenage that different from Harlow or Crawley or other New Towns that have swung decisively rightwards. Look at Sheffield compared to Leeds. Similar size, similar demographics, Leeds has 22 Tory councillors, Sheffield lost her last one this year. Makes no sense at all because in different place different parties have convinced different people to vote for them.
36. It already happens in some places. Here in Portsmouth the poorest ward by far in the city has been Lib Dem solidly for 6 years & they fell to third place for the first time this year. In Reading as well two of the more recent Lib Dem breakthroughs have happened in wards which would be regarded as natural Labour wards in terms of demographics. A lot of these people don’t vote anyway. If the ones who do if they don’t vote for Labour they’re in big trouble.
66. I thought i had the job in the bag - the challange changed from getting the job to not getting the job!
28 I pointed that out, Tressage, and I’m a Tory - we are quite nice people, you know.
What has Shapps done now, Footsoldier (60)? It is the inimitable Grant Shapps that you mean, I suppose.
OT: Did anyone see the article by Andrew Stephen in the New Statesman last week about the American primaries?
It’s quite frankly hilarious. The day after Obama seeming closed the deal in Indiana and North Carolina, he comes out with this:
“So we found ourselves back to square one on Tuesday night, with no definite winner emerging from the last two big Democratic primaries, in North Carolina and Indiana.”
http://www.newstatesman.com/200805070003
It follows on from the hatchet job; “the truth about Obama” he’s also written. I can’t see any kind of merit from this kind of biased delusional journalism other than a very subtle kind of satire.
73 Martin. Your CV with 30 Cleggovers wasn’t the clincher then ??
53 I have a penny of King Cnut for sale at the moment £ 180 to you 10% discount off list price .
72 A really well-organised local party can swim against the tide for some time. I expect that explains Labour’s success in Stevenage, when places like Hatfield, Borehamwood, Harlow have all fallen away from them. I expect though, that having lost seats in Stevenage, they’ll keep losing them now.
72. That is Labour fell to third place in Charles Dickens ward.
68. Brown will come into his own on retirement, I reckon. He will take a fair while off and then will come back as a major figure in the global fight against poverty. He will rehabilitate his reputation amongst the British people and will be regarded as a man who deservedly failed at the top job but still had much to offer public life. His memoirs, published in 2018, will come to be regarded as the most authoritative text on the rise and fall of New Labour.
Possibly.
Some Tories are nice, Test (74), but by no means all.
I like most of the ones I meet on the doorstep. Like me, they are not totally convinced by Cameron.
76 - He obviously wrote it before Indiana/North Carolina based on polls and couldn’t be arsed changing it. Less delusional, more incredibly lazy!
81.
76. The New Statesman is a pretty terrible magazine in terms of analysing the state of play - it’s far too occupied with wistful philosophising.
78 Mark. Now there’s a fine example of Cnut economic liberalism … 10% discount for proposed tidal power.
One of the best indicators of the potential future of a CEO or Executive is whether there is a good/better job for them to go to.
I know with a PM it is slightly different. But if there was a juicy well-paid job out there…
63 - I have the skin of a rhinoceros, don’t worry.
66 that’s bloody mean spirited from somebody so privileged. Shame on you. Your inamoratus Obama would not approve.
Keep going Martin. Have you tried monster.com?
83. How about this one then?
http://www.newstatesman.com/200801100000
Obama in; not remembering incident from childhood clearly scandal!
53 “I was rejected for another job on class basis.”
Maybe, next time you should go to the interview yourself, rather than just sending your butler….!
Anyway - good luck for the next one, mate.
81 There will be a wave of sympathy for him especially if he falls on his sword and doesn’t have to be put through a Thatcheresque defenestration. All the media contempt of the past few weeks will disappear overnight and he will be portrayed as a tragic figure. He could easily rehabilitate himself with “good works” like IDS or, further back, John Profumo.
79. True, but to do that they must have convinced different people to stick with them, or vote for them in the first place that have deserted the Labour party elsewhere. & anyway, they’re highly unlikely to plumment even if they do lose seats, maybe a gentle melting.
Well, Boris to seem to be adopting a very centrist approach - having promised to put an Air Marshal on a plinth in Trafalgar Square, he’s now decided to consult about it instead.
I think the Tories will indeed be the short-term beneficiaries of racial voting trends, but this will bring a longer-term dilemma. Do they continue to court - by inference - Romford Man, or do they turn round and disappoint him, hoping for a party to their right to emerge to eat into Labour’s bedrock vote?
The 40:20:20:20 scenario I have suggested before is surely what they should be aiming for. However, it has clear public order implications.
An excellent start for Boris.
Mayor Boris Johnson witnessed first-hand a knife-wielding thug being caught as he went out with police on a crackdown on blades.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23485258-details/Knife+thug+caught+on+Boris+walkabout/article.do
And of course he’s a racist.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23484299-details/Transport+job+for+Sikh+who+set+up+Oyster+card/article.do
Oh, and this, a nice picture of the Bliar’s Britain - I hear HMP Holloway is nice this time of year.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23485246-details/Woman+bought+baby+for+%C2%A3370+to+get+council+home/article.do
68. Someone suggested he’d probably have a very senior position in something to do with Africa. I think he’ll make a much better ex-prime minister than a prime minister.
84. Agreed. Of course there’s a place for philosophy and navel gazing, but it should really be rooted in reality.
The Huff indicates that McCain may be in trouble over his Hamas position :
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/15/exclusive-video-mccain-wa_n_102031.html
FWIW, I live about 8 miles from Henley on Thames, but outside the constituency. I have just received a letter asking me to go to Crewe.
Agree that it is v. tedious reading the views of Tories on Lib Dem strategy as if they knew what was going on!
89 - I am surprised Obama is still standing following such a sustained attack from no less a journal than the New Statesman. If one didn’t know better, one would be tempted to believe that the British lefties’ jazz mag of choice isn’t required reading in Raleigh, North Carolina.
91. Now there’s a thought, throwing Thatch out a window…
IDS is rehabilitated? Shurely shome mishtake?
89. It’s so silly - as is the misreporting that Obama wants troops in Pakistan. I noticed the biography dutifully skips over the bits where he worked communiter organiser and then led a voter registration drive. Even more amusing was the argument that blacks wouldn’t support him!
I sometimes feel where those people that positively identify as left-wingers, rather than those who have simply arrived at “left-wing” views, actually don’t like winning. They want to go down nobly in defeat, to prove that might of the evil establishment. Some left-wingers oppose Obama for reasonable reasons, but for others it just seems so knee-jerk, almost as if they don’t want one of their own to be successful by being accepted by right-wingers. They’d must prefer a vicious fight to the death.
42 I did some very successful phone canvassing for C&N last Saturday and last night.
I’m spending the day in Henley tomorrow.
I live in Bedfordhire so its a sensible use of my time.
We LDs are amazing at multi-tasking
95. Do you think Brown really cares one jot about Africa?
97. So? It has no effect on the race? Therefore shoddy journalism is ok? I like to read most of the magazine, and i like to be reading good quality journalism. Their coverage of the US has been lacking.
The Lib Dems can’t afford to ignore C&N even IF [I said IF] everyone else ignores them.
Clegg certainly can’t. He is in a spot leading a third party in this climate.
We all navel gaze and the LibDems will be examining their own fluff.
67 Why is it odd ? Seems a sensible use of activists north and south to me.
Thought Timpson was smamrmy and arrogant on Newsnight last night. Does not look like a nice guy
101 Absolutely.
101. Can’t see into the man’s head. But he has a good record.
03 Does LD Federal Executive on Monday moved to C&N, LD Shadow Cabinet moved to C&N on Tuesday and LD PP mtg on Wednesday moved to C&N on Wednesday sound like we’re ignoring it ?
100 and 104 How is it a sensible diversion of resources if Henley is probably months away?
102 - A piece of advice - if you like reading good quality journalism, don’t read the New Statesman. There is room in the free market for dreadful, lazy, self congratulatory journalism as shown by moderate success of the New Statesman, the Spectator and 95% of all blogs. Some people like reading this sh1t because they agree with it and don’t want to be bothered with subtler arguments based on properly sourced facts. I say let them enjoy it - it is neither “okay” nor not okay, it is just the market and I am unclear why you care.
Just worth pointing out that the Poole by election was a straight contest between Conservative and Lib Dem. At the previous election in 2007 an Independant stood as well and she polled 577 votes so to say there was a big swing to the Liberal Democrats is misleading as you are not comparing like with like!
Sean - very interesting commentary, many thanks. Is Boris empowered to make a start on eliminating the voting fraud that undoubtedly exists in London elections, e.g. by introducing much tighter controls as regards postal voting, or does this require legislation by Westminster?
108 - Firstly, it isn’t diversion of resources. These are volunteers and somebody in Slough who can spare half a day obviously won’t go to Crewe. Secondly, depending on how much the Tories are doing, putting some effort in Henley early on is likely to yield dividends in terms of getting in early on the big issues so the Tories come over as Jonny-come-latelys when they rock up and start on the same things - you can’t replicate first-mover advantage.
99. I think you could say the same about Heffer and his ilk. Most ideologues seem to hate the prospect of government. It must be difficult to descend from moral absolutes to the more complex world that we live in.
109. I don’t care majorly. I just found the article slightly ridiculous. I apologise if that upset you at all. Next time, why not skip my posts?
100 Tim
Excuse my ignorance but how does phone canvassing work ?
Do you call everyone in the Crewe phone book whose surname begins with “Q”, or are you calling people who are already known.
112 - It didn’t upset me at all, G. My response was merely flippant. And I do generally skip your posts, but had time on my hands
113 - You can purchase ‘phone number lists and automatically marry them up with registered voters on the electoral register (this is all on computer). This ensures you call the household rather than the “owner” of the ‘phone so you can try to establish the position for all residents. It also means you are calling a street so can find out about local issues and use the knowledge in your next call (”are you having trouble with the water board taking up the pavement too?” - that sort of thing). I hate telephone canvassing - find it really difficult when you can’t look ‘em in the eye.
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 45% .. Clinton 48%
McCain 47% .. Obama 45%
Clinton 44% .. Obama 48%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107323/Gallup-Daily-Obamas-Edge-Narrows-48-44.aspx
106.
You cannot be serious. Just how difficult is it to throw money, not your own of course, at a problem? Had he resigned at the same time as TB, he would now be strutting the World stage. As it is,C&N will be the end.
113. Example -
Swivel-eyed Lib Dem ‘Good evening, I’m canvassing for the Lib Dems in the forthcoming byelection’
Householder [hangs up]
Lib Dem to colleague - ‘another definite there’
Talking of Lib Dem by election strategy. I agree with Sam Coates… just dreadful
.
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/2008/05/why-is-british.html
For all the Toy bluster “LDs sqeezed, LDs with real problems if they come third etc etc” nobody has yet sold me so much as a pound of LibDem seats yet.
Johnson held Springfield (Hackney) with its huge Chassidic population, yes, but you also need to remember that this is a community that voted postally in huge numbers (more so because the election was near Passover). So you could easily add in New River to Johnson, a much better showing in Lordship (if not victory), and a rather better showing in Cazenove (where Jewish voters tend to back the LibDems but probably switched to Boris).
117 - I think LD canvassers are a little more perceptive than that. Even if they say they’ll vote for you, they may well not.
LDs may well come second in Crewe. If they do, ta-ra Gordon. A Henley win is also quite possible.
117 Alternative tale of Conservative telephone canvassing .
Name for this number Twissleton-Thwaite clearly a toff no need to ring him - ticks definite box .
re 116 that’s not good for Obama, is it? Whatever one thinks about the absolute figures, he’s notably in worse shape against McCain than Clinton. And Electoral-vot.com’s excellent updates on the Electoral College position has consistently shown for some weeks that Clinton beats McCain but Obama may not.
95 G Please do NOT wish Brown on Africa, they have enough problems with their home grown pompous, self delusional, dysfunctional politicians with the financial skills of the Steptoes.
121
Unfortunately (for you), thats not true. My MP lives close by to me and even he gets canvassed (usually by leaflet as he is out canvassing himelf). I never assume anything when canvassing. It might be a bit OTT, but I think my MP would be disappointed if he didn’t at least get a leaflet,if not just to show that the activists were out there working on his behalf.
111 The Deputy Campaign Director for LDs is solely focused on Henley.
That is one resource that could have been placed in C&N.
121 - reminds me of telling outside the Bear in Oxford once. One voter had no polling card, but gave her name as something like Felicity Fotherby-Nicholson, Christ Church.
Tory teller said “Double barrelled, must be one of ours”. I piped up that I was double barrelled, but not a Tory. Tory teller said “but your surname is Smith-Brown or something, so it doesn’t count.”
LDs won. Tories came fourth with 9%.
SBS - How many thousands of pounds of your own money are you going to put on either/or the LDs coming second in Crewe and Nantwich and winning Henley.
Do you really believe the Cowley Street spin?
I’ve been to Crewe and I can tell you its not going to happen….. save your cash!
Sean how suprised were you the labour gained Harrow and Brent?
Living in next door Ealing I was very suprised as I didn’t think anything different was happening.
What do you think about the Tories gaining Harrow West now?
I think once the ethnic minorities see that Boris is not a racist then they should have little problem in gaining Harrow west, Harrow East and maybe even Brent North.
127 - I have not listened to Cowley Street spin at all. They have not contacted me, and I am definitely an “inactivist” rather than an “activist”. What I say is my hunch! No more than that.
May put a few quid on, but perhaps not, given your advice. Is the Labour vote really holding up there?
re 125. …and the said person, a personal friend of mine and an avid follower of PB, is brilliant.
127 - for the record, my latest hunch is that that whoever is second, the Tories will exceed the Labour vote by about 5,000. A swing of 15% or so would get rid of Brown. The parallel I can think of is Eastbourne 1990 which got rid of Thatcher.
I personally wish the Tories had won Cheadle, so CK could have gone quickly and quietly before the booze stories.
Do the Tories really want rid of Brown so soon? He is their greatest asset.
Rasmussen polls from Maine:
Obama and Clinton both beat McCain 51-38.
In the Senate race Collins (R) still leads Allen (D), but the gap is down from 16 to 10 points in the last month.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/maine/election_2008_maine_senate2
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/maine/election_2008_maine_presidential_election2
The Maine Senate race is quite interesting. Collins now leads 52 (-2) - 42 (+4). It is a blue state but Collins is well-liked and seen as a moderate. Both the candidates have high favourables for Clollins 70% and for Allen 58%. Allen currently represents one of only 2 House seats so has name recognition and political experience. Media markets are fairly cheap so even though Collins is outraising Allen (mostly with PAC money) money shouldn’t have a massive impact. The Democrats will win if they tie Collins to Bush and Iraq. This is the difference between good gains of 4-6 seats and great gains of 7-10 seats. It could be similar to a 2006 race where Lincoln Chafee a moderate Republican lost in Rhode Island.
We really do need a dose of realism. Labour’s majority in Crewe is big - particularly gien that it’s over a party that doesn’t exactly have a great recent record in by-elections. If the Conservatives do win next week then it will be a fantastic result - even if it’s by 1 vote - but it is not a certainty at all.
I’ve only been to Crewe and Nantwich once during this campaign but it seems very very close. Labour’s vote is clearly down and the Conservative vote is clearly up but we won’t know if it’s up enough to win until next Thursday night / Friday morning. The idea that one party or the other is miles ahead doesn’t seem to match the experience of people on the ground.
One thing that is certain is that Labour will finish ahead of the Lib Dems. I saw absolutely no sign of Lib Dem activity when I was there - no posters, no leaflets, no activists. It is - as they say - a two horse race. Given the name of this site, if anyone seriously disagrees with that analysis then I am more than happy to put my money where my mouth is. You can e-mail me on mike@mike-wood.org.uk
Good analysis, Sean.
33. Spot on. The relentless pursuit, by the Labour party, of the ethnic minority, weeping-liberal vote (as evinced by the Guardian refusing to racially identify the assailants in the Oxford Street murder) has turned around and bitten the Left on the ass.
They’ve lost the average white man. And woman.
As you say Labour may now be reduced to a core of: tribally Labour whites, Alan Rusbridger and friends, and BME voters. I reckon that contitutes around 20% of the electorate. Not near enough.
re 68 God help all of use if GB goes to the IMF. Isn’t buggering up one economy enough for the man.
HF, since you - a Tory - know so much more about the workings of the Liberal Democrats than all us Lib Dem activists….. please let us into a secret.
You tell us (125) that “the Deputy Campaign Director for LDs is solely focused on Henley.”
Do you happen to know where the Lib Dem Campaign Director is focused?
Or is that information not given to you in your Tory Central Office prompt book?
Mike Wood Spot on.
131 - I am not saying Labour are doing well - far from it! Their loathsome core vote “toff” strategy is one of the meanest and most unpleasant campaigns in the last 30 years and is going down quite badly. One voter in a strong Labour ward called it - unprompted -”pathetic”.
That said, Crewe and Nantwich was not even a Tory gain in 1983 and is far from a shoo in. Labour will fight hard and dirty.
That said, their vote is staying at home or shifting in fairly large numbers to the Conservatives and Lib Dems in that order.
My guess is that the Lib Dems have failed to gain traction as the main anti-Labour challengers and David Cameron is seen as mainstream and reasonable choice for voters to use their votes to kick Labour in the most effective manner.
re 115 what about those households where are hundreds of voters registered?
134 - So you are saying that the Labour party controls the Guardian now?
If Labour is relentlessly pursuing the weeping liberal vote why are they locking more people up than ever before, introducing ID cards, trying to push through 42-day detention and creating ASBOs?
Why are Labour “locking more people up than ever before, introducing ID cards, trying to push through 42-day detention and creating ASBOs”, Kieran (140)?
Beacause they are still after the Tory vote, of course!
138 How is their campaign going down amongst Labour MPs. Quite happy for LabourHome to draw similarities with BNP tactis are they?
I’ve been ignoring the Betfair party leaders market as if was so illiquid but I’ve just had a look and there’s been a huge change in the odds and I’m now comfortably green on all possible outcomes.
140: ‘So you are saying that the Labour party controls the Guardian now?’
With the amount of government advertising Labour gives them, partially.
115 Thanks James, hadn’t realised it was so sophisticated.
o/t many people on here have argued that Obama has the nomination in the bag absent an “event”. Well it seems that Clinton supporters are spreading a rumour around the blogs today that there is a videotape of Mrs Obama at that Chicago church going off on one about “whitey” and the Republicans have it.
As I have said previously, remember “Primary Colours”. The Clintons can be ruthless.
133 - I don’t get this argument about Crewe and Nantwich being far down the Tory target list and therefore it does not need to be won to indicate a Tory victory at the next GE.
Governments always do worse in by-elections. Look at Rod’s work on this there is always a swing back to the governing party from by-election results.
Also, the Conservatives haven’t been good at by-elections because of the national picture not for intrinsic reasons. From 1982-1997 they were in government and governing parties very rarely gain by-election seats. 1997-2003 they were no where. 2003-2008 there haven’t been many juicy Parliamentary targets and nationally they have never had an advantage anywhere near as big as now.
140. Who said they weren’t intent on losing a chunk of that constituency, as well?
Remember they have form in this area - in 1979 Peter Hall and loads of other luvvies voted Tory, so sick were they of Labour creating ‘a land without opportunity’
144 - The Guardian is a lefty paper but it can be critical of Labour. It just hated Boris.
133,137 Well the betting markets appear to be in no doubt. The Tory candidate is 1/5 on Betfair, whilst Ms Dunwoody is priced at 5/1.
138 - I quite agree that the toff strategy is pretty dire! The Tories were a clear second at the GE. I expect the Tories to win well.
But by-elections do thrown up oddities. The Tories came third in Littleborough and Saddleworth and in Eastleigh, both seats they were defending.
I am a little alarmed at largely agreeing with your post. I am also touched that you see me as somebody on the hotline to Cowley Street. I pay my subscription but that is about all I do for the party.
140. Because Labour are hopelessly incoherent. Their basic liberal-elite instinct is to be pathetic, slavering Guardianista wetwipes, who care more about asylum seeking Gambians than the white people of Dagenham.
However, under Blair, they decided to triangulate - because they felt they couldn’t win without the Mail and Murdoch onside - hence the bizarrely rightwing policies and phraseology in certain areas (and, to be fair, this authoritarianism did gel with a certain de haut en bas attitude in the leftie psyche).
The result has been ideologically disastrous. No one knows what Labour stands for any more. You get people like Nick Palmer trotting out lines like “if the Tories have good policies we’ll take them” - such as IHT abolition, surely a rightwing policy if ever there was one.
Consequently, Labour have hollowed themselves out. They’ve tried to appeal to everyone but ended up appealing to no one. Their relentlessly and ludicrously PC rhetoric and racism-shouting annoys ordinary white people; their authoritarian shtick annoys liberals and centrists.
If people want honest right wing policies, which they do, they will vote Tory. At least the Tories will do what they say: be patrotic, freedom loving, eurosceptic, capitalist, low taxing, and tough on nasty people whatever their race.
Labour, by contrast, is a nullity. Between them, Blair and Brown have destroyed the party, by depriving it of meaning.
Labour MPs have been cravenly silent about the xenophobia and class hatred, not to mention printing a photo of the Tory candidate’s family home (which is about as much of a “mansion” as my cottage). John Harris, left-wing journalist in the Guardian, however, picked up on it when all around him were silent and his article was commented on all over the blogs (coffee house etc).
The Tory odds were 1/7 now 1/5 Has much money been waged?
On the subject of the thread, its quite amazing that the Lib Dems failed to carry a single one of the 600+ wards in Greater London and must give them pause for thought in Richmond, Sutton and Kingston.
With regard to Tower Hamlets, given that George Galloway actively campaigned for Livingstone, the swings to Labour are less inexplicable than at first sight. As for Newham, did the 2012 Olympics funding promises associated with Livingstone bear fruit?
O/T - Oh good grief Quentin has been stumping for Labour….
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/politics/threelinewhip/may/quentin-davies-toff.htm
153
theses are the odds on Mikes ink
Bookmaker Betting Exchange
Conservatives 1/7
0.19/1
Labour 9/2
5
Liberal Democrats 25
37
155, hilarious! I’ve been trying not to get complacent but now…
149 PfP the betting markets knew nothing about Dunfermline, so that doesn’t mean all that much.
Interesting to see that Sporting has suspended its market on the C&N by-election - does this perhaps indicate that another poll is imminent?
122 Martin. Broadly you picks your polls and takes your chances. In any case Hillary isn’t relevant to McCain any longer in these match ups. Obama has a lock on the nomination and will IMO pommel McCain in the autumn.