Oct 6th 2007: the moment it all went wrong
May 18th, 2008Given the dramatic changes we are seeing I thought it might be a good moment to look back to the first Saturday in October when Gordon recorded his famous interview with Andrew Marr. It was this, it will be recalled, that was Downing Street’s way of ending the speculation about an early November 2007 general election and followed a week when the Tories had begun to start their recovery in the polls.
Gordon looks a bit better in the recording compared with what we have seen in the past week. But the moment when it all falls down was when he dismissed the notion that it was the opinion polls that caused him to drop the early election plan.
This sounded so implausible and had echoes in the way he dealt with the 10% tax change moves during the week. Trying to deny something which appears to be so obviously the case just makes you look shifty.
In my betting I have now put more on the spreadbetting markets to become a £100 a seat seller of Labour. This is where you estimate the number of seats the parties will get at the election and then see them traded like stocks and shares. I’ve gone for a Labour sell rather than a Tory buy because I think there is more scope for movement.
Mike Smithson
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Just for Mark Senior this one. We know that Mark absolutely loves these tiny sub-samples, if they flatter the Lab Dims (otherwise of course then in Mark’s honest opinion they are utter tripe).
ComRes/Independent on Sunday
Scottish sub-sample size = 53
1. SNP 30% (+12%)
2. Lab 28% (-11%)
3. LD 19% (-4%)
4. Con 16% (n/c)
5. Grn 2% (+1%)
oth 6%
From which Electoral Calculus (Baxter) gives predicted Westminster seats in Scotland:
1. Labour 29 seats (-11 seats)
2. LD 14 seats (+3 seats)
3. SNP 13 seats (+7 seats)
4. Con 2 seats (+ 1 seat)
5. Speaker (Michael Martin) 1 seat (n/c)
Sell Labour seats at 234 would have seemed a crazily low price only a few weeks ago. Now it suddenly seems like value. I already have a good position on the Con seats market, having bought at around 320, but I’ve followed Mike and also sold Labour to have the same opinion over two bets. Hopefully the prices will continue to drift apart over the next few weeks - especially after Thursday…. Target price is Labour 200 and I might buy back to close for a profit, but leave the Cons buy position open until the election…
Getting on with the job..
Calling an election on competence..
We will win an election..
When you throw £5 billion at a problem and not show how you’ll fund it (but £2.7 billion is ok) is leads to economic disaray.
Setting out a vision (where?)
This man simply isn’t credible
Still seems pretty crazy to me but I must be in a small minority on this site.
Another thing to think about is the career hedgers who might come in if the Tory price gets high enough. If for example you were Nick’s opponent in Broxtowe you can be virtually certain to win at the current Tory level - so worth selling a few hundred. If the Tories do better happy days if not well at least you have something to console yourself with and you probably win anyway for the next 50 seats down.
Well getting interviewed by Marr certainly upset Boulton on Sky, he gets angrier, grumpier, and putting on weight, after each testy piece he does to camera, with goverment politicians.
Maybe the great Blairite decade of 97 to 07 is over for him to.
Wendy Alexander loses yet another spin doctor. I count that as at least 6 (Brian Lironi, Matthew Marr, Gavin Yates, Kerron Cross, Philip Chalmers, Mike Elrick) since she was annointed leader of the Scottish Labour Party last September.
Has any other senior politician in the UK such a poor record in terms of recruiting and retaining staff? How long before Simon Pia walks too?
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2279010.0.aide_walks_out_on_wendy_over_referendum_uturn.php
1. But that has the Liberal Democrats gaining seats.
7. Punter
Indeed! That is why it is specially for our Mark
Latest Rasmussen Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 44% .. Obama 45%
Clinton 44% .. Obama 46%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
wow you posted this without leaving your seat! I presume that you automatically set a time when it would appear when you wrote it?
New Star Tribune Presidential Poll for Minnesota :
McCain 40% .. Clinton 49%
McCain 38% .. Obama 51%
http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/president/19043139.html?location_refer=Homepage
Apologies if this has already been said, but Brown reminds me a bit of Jim Callaghan. It’s often argued that if Callaghan had called an election in 1978, he would have won it; likewise, if Brown had gone ahead and called one in autumn 2007, he (probably) would have won, and would have been in a stronger position as a result. Both missed out on their best opportunity when it was there, and for Brown it’s now too late.
I’m glad he didn’t call it, of course - if he’d won, we’d have been stuck with him until 2012! But if Brown’s watching this video now, he must be kicking himself that he ‘bottled it’.
Quite a difference between Brown then and now- appears a lot more confident and upbeat. Gives you an idea of how hard the last few months have been for the man.
1- Getting a little disappointed of how poorly the Conservatives are doing North of the border- still, I’d imagine that the SNP are soaking up the protest votes. Honest question, though- if the Tories make little breakthrough in Scotland in 2010, despite winning handsomely in England and Wales- Will the Scottish Conservatives become the Scottish Unionists- an independent party?
I was never convinced he would win an election last year. most likely a hung parliament but where would tat have left him and Nulab
12 Alasdair
We probably have the SNP to thank for Brown not calling an autumn 2007 General Election. The puir laddie was fillin his breeks.
1/8 Strangely Stuart . I actually think that all rhese small subsamples are fairly meaningless but like to post the ones favourable to LibDems to counteract the ones you mormally only quote which are unfavourable .
On a technical note the subsample size is 88 not 53 , the 53 being the number that express a voting intention of 5-10 .
12 It’s commonly accepted that by “won” in October 1978 he could perhaps have again been largest Party in a hung parliament. It’s not as if the Polls private and Public were predicting a comfortable overall Majority! Obviously better than how it turned out, but how could he know how crazy Scanlon and his buddies would be just before an election.
17 There will be another winter of discontent either this year or more likely 09/10.
Holding public sector pay down as a method of beating inflation is exactly where it all went wrong for Callaghan in 1978.
If I was working in the public sector I’d be incensed to be told that I was having to suffer a pay cut because the Government have lost control of the economy.
And as the chances of a 2010 Labour Government fade the unions may well feel they are better off having a bare knuckle fight with a weak Labour Government now than trying to take on a strong, newly elected Conservative administration then.
13. I think there will have to be a realignment of Scottish politics. The Labour Party in Scotland will have to become its own master, or lose all credibility. Wendy Alexander caving in at the sound of ‘her master’s voice’ has not played well in Scotland. It was reported in the press here that Labour MSPs had their tails up at the idea of setting their own policy, and felt humiliated when they received their orders to knuckle under.
I have said on here before that the Conservative Party is now marginal in Scotland. My own political inclination is conservative, but I would like to see an independent Scotland now. I do not think asymmetrical devolution is sustainable. We are, in effect, in a trial separation of the marriage of England and Scotland, and my experience after rather more than half a century on the planet is that trial separations are fairly reliable indicators that a marriage is over.
The centre of gravity of the SNP is social democratic, so Labour supporters who move towards supporting independence have an obvious home. At the moment, it is less clear where people on the right who favour independence can go. My own feeling is that Alex Salmond is a supreme realist, who has seen what low taxes have done for small countries, in the Baltic States and in Ireland, and that the realities of having to make a go of an independent nation would force an effective move to the right.
We shall see. But I certainly do think the parties north of the Border will need a very great degree of autonomy at the least. Something like the situation with the CSU in Bavaria and the CDs in Germany.
Last October, I thought that Brown was cruelly set up by a tank crew in Iraq, when they asked him to autograph ‘To Cyclops, with thanks, Gordon Brown.’
Falling for such a stunt undermined his credibility.
18. And holding down pay to keep inflation under control doesn’t quite square with the stated rationale for the £2.7bn tax cut.
re 18 I’m sure that the nurses will be thanking their union for cosying up to the government in a behind the scenes pay deal which gives them 2.4% next year at a time when inflation (and when I mention inflation I mean RPI not the government’s fantasy measure) will be pushing 5%.
I dont believe this was the pivotal point in that the decision itself triggered the poll fall.
Labour’s own internal polling suggested problemsn that might see a net loss of seats.
People were starting to notice the economic pinch at that point and that really is the base problem.
I have to say Mike that it was not just bottling the election which would have lost him seats (probably) but the manner in which it was done.
There was Balls and co egging the media on, then the visit to Iraq to fib about troops coming home followed by canceling the election and insisting it was all got up by the media.
The last bit was the large sack that broke the camels back, it already having been much overloaded in the first place.
I remember watching Jacqui Smith insist that to Adam Bolton that it was all media led which caused him to go bananas.
19- interesting insight- what I didn’t realise until reccently that there was a significant strand of Scottish Nationalism which was fairly conservative- though it’s clearly dominated by the more social democratic strand. I agree that the current system helps no one.
As a Conservative, I think that that the Scottish Conservatives need to take a different approach. Perhaps a better strategy would be to advocate federalism: keep the monarchy, keep the united foregin policy, military and natural resources but cut off everything else.
It’s keeping the unionist tag but making the concessions that nationalists want. Plus, the political benefits are endless: Conservatives north of the border increase their support, south of the border, it would make life a lot easier because Scottish MPs could only vote on military and foreign affairs. Also- devolution with the SNP in charge actually seems to have cut the demand for independence.
Risky, but could work.
re 24 Benedict you’re being too soft. He’s not a fibber he’s a liar. He might be deluded of course but that doesn’t exonerate the lies.
24 - I think that that Adam Boulton moment was an absolute classic. It was symbolic of the point at which the media turned on Labour.
24 - yeah, you’re right. They didn’t actually need to do all the public fronting they did for an election, they could have quite easily done it on the quiet and then announced if they wanted to.
Making it look like you’re going to call an election and then denying the people their say is never going to be a popular move.
Mike - enjoy the cricket!
Looks nailed on for a draw now (although thats usually a good result for England at Lords!!!)
re 26, Chris A “re 24 Benedict you’re being too soft. He’s not a fibber he’s a liar. He might be deluded of course but that doesn’t exonerate the lies.”
To lie you have to tell something you believe to be false, which assumes he has a clue what the truth is.
Out of interest what is your position on the requirement to consider a childs need for a father in the Human fertilisation and embryology bill?
Re 27, James Burdett “24 - I think that that Adam Boulton moment was an absolute classic. It was symbolic of the point at which the media turned on Labour.”
Absolutely! Since then the media have been out for blood.
Re 1) Based on the actual notionals:
Conservatives 3 (gain Galloway and Stirling)
Labour 23 (lose 18)
Liberal Democrats 14 (gain Aberdeen South, Edinburgh North, Edinburgh South)
SNP 19 (gain 13 all from Labour)
Re the main article, you are as usual spot on. That interview was Labour’s version of Norman Lamont’s press conference on Black Wednesday and the press conference at Newbury in 1993 combined!
25 - there are all shades of opinion in those who favour Independence and not all vote SNP- one friend is a Marxist (from a very wealthy titled family!) all the way to Royalist Scots - it is a very broad church indeed)
Canvassing today was the best for such a long time, pity there is no election. We were out doing the National Coversation survey, quite a lot of the minority who said they were Labour - broke 60/40 in favour of ‘Yes’ in an any referendum. Even a few Tories. Didn’t find one LD today. Sorry Mark.
Senator Jim Webb on MSNBC says he’s “not that interested in becoming Vice President” :
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/24692961#24692961
31 - Stirling will be an interesting one, given the SNP gain of the Holyrood seat (admittedly on different boundaries). I wouldn’t be shocked if the Lib Dems lost B,S&R to the Tories though
Re 28, Anton Chigurh “24 - yeah, you’re right. They didn’t actually need to do all the public fronting they did for an election, they could have quite easily done it on the quiet and then announced if they wanted to.”
Well,yes, though the plan seems to have been to sow disarray in the Conservative party and split them at their conference without realising that the threat of an election would pull them together like nothing else. I can’t conceive how someone could have thought that this stupid stunt would have worked. It was daft from the off as obviously the threat of an election does get people to pull together.
Further more, having pre announced it through the media it ceased to be a surprise snap election.
“Making it look like you’re going to call an election and then denying the people their say is never going to be a popular move.”
Maybe, but the key damage was to the relationship with the media, especially when Brown and co decided to blame them for the speculation!
32- should be *conversation*
Mention made of Cons taking out a writ, presumably on Labour libels or slanders. Any news on that? Are there any precedents?
33 Such a hard won Senate seat though. I think either Kaine or Clarke would fit the bill better.
re 30 Of course a child needs a father - anything else is nonsense. You and I will probably disagree about whether he and the mother need to be in a heterosexual relationship or not though.
Any updates on how the canvas went in C& N today?
How times have changed.
Firstly he says [having a go at the Tories] you can’t throw 5 billion pounds at things and not show where it is coming from [cough, cough].
Secondly, the man has aged about 5 to 10 years.
Thirdly. It is clear he has no idea he is sitting there in the nuddy.
No 4. He has no idea Boulton, the big beast, is growling in the gutter.
No5 His body language says ‘I am right and I am confident you will accept this’.
We all talk about the media backlash leading events down hill, noone believes him anymore etc…but this is also the moment Gordon lost confidence in himself. He has never got it back. It has affected his strategic decision making ever since leading him to misunderstand the reaction at every end and turn.
Re the last subject, just remember if Scotland breaks up the UK to leave England, Wales and N Ireland behind, English taxpayers may lose the Barnet formula which apparently unfairly benefits Scottish taxpayers but Westminster will lose, the oil revenues, the gas revenues, the huge potential revenues from renewables (the Pentland Firth once harnessed can power the whole of Europe never mind Britain), the whisky revenues and the entire Edinburgh financial sector which is Europe’s 4th largest.
Re Scottish seats, why on earth do any of you think the LibDem will gain seats? Together with their Labour partners they are going to be taken apart except in their Highland boltholes.
The Scottish Censervatives are polling up around 20% and they always poll 2-3% above any opinion poll.
As I have predicted several times on recent postings, Scotland will provide the real shocks if there are no major swings back to Labour in 2010.
LibDems will probably lose Gordon to SNP, Argyll to SNP, Inverness to SNP and West Aberdeen to the Cons,Berwickshire to the Cons or SNP.
Labour will probably lose Stirling to either SNP or Cons, East Renfrewshire to Cons, Edinburgh South to Cons, Edinburgh SW will give Alistair Darling his P45 falling to Cons, Dumfries to Cons, Dundee West to SNP, Ochil to SNP, Aberdeen South to SNP, Cumernauld to SNP, possibly another Lanarkshire seat to SNP, either Livingston or Linlithgow to SNP, possibly Central Fife to SNP and if Labour are doing really badly, the Ayrshire seat containing the Tory Ayr Holyrood seat to the Cons and Cunningham North to the SNP. Remember albeit on better boundaries for the Cons, The Scottish Conservatives lost 11 seats in 1987 and then the remaining 10 in 1997, Labour now control 2 out of 32 councils in Scotland. The Scottish Conservatives are now the largest party group on several councils.
I wonder if Andrew Marr spat or swallowed after that interview.
42 Agree with much of what you write but it is wrong to assume that Westminister would definately lose all the gas and oil revenues. There would be a negotiation the outcome of which is uncertain
44 Wrong - While there would be negotiations regarding the detail, the basic prinicple is enshrined in international law - Scotland owns its natural resources without question.
And the maritime border will also be determined by international law which would give Scotland around 90% of the oil reserves.
Under international law the oil and gas fields lie within what would be Scottish territorial waters and I cannot see any Scottish government taking Scotland out of the UK being willing to negotiate away its largest current assets. We saw at the end of last week a move by the SNP Government to demand Westminster refund Attendance Allowance moneys which have been clawed back by Brown. That move was supported by both the Scottish Conservatives, the party which helped the SNP pass its budget and the LibDems. Labour under Bendy Wendy stupidly opposed the move and from now until 2011 the electorate will be constantly reminded of the fact.
Alex Salmond shook Scottish Labour a week ago by confirming in principle he would support a David Cameron government at Westminster on an issue by issue basis, exactly the same arrangement he has with Annabel Goldie at Holyrood. As I keep reminding listers, it was the SNP and Scotland which brought down the last Labour Government and I suspect they will do the same again by obliterating the LAbour Lobby fodder from Scotland at Westminster.
Re 37, Svjek “Mention made of Cons taking out a writ, presumably on Labour libels or slanders. Any news on that? Are there any precedents?”
It is because Labour are using photoshoped pictures of our man on their leaflets which is illegal. (the ones with the top hat put on)
For those with an interest in politics, this was the moment - in retrospect, anyway.
For the wider public it was more a head’s up, a warning that they ought to take notice. But still, it was a decision that was understandable in political terms. The moment that mattered more to Joe Public was the denial of the EU referendum. That was a clear breach of trust that the majority of the population considered unforgivable. .
Re 39, Chris A “re 30 Of course a child needs a father - anything else is nonsense. You and I will probably disagree about whether he and the mother need to be in a heterosexual relationship or not though.”
What about the need for a mother as well?
42. Easterross.
Can’t say I know the details but the ‘who owes what oil/gas?’ is a regular debate on here.
Apparently half the gas is in English waters even if you accept the Scottish/English waters thing.
No legal expert myself on this issue [there are others on here who maybe] but the ‘internal’ definition [apparently] is not binding internationally for the purposes of who owns the oil. Apparently the division could cause years of legal argument or the need for a negotiated settlement.
I have used the word ‘apparently’ alot - for a reason! [No point in arguing it with me - not got the foggiest]
38 - I think Wes Clark (I assume that is who you refer to) would be a good choice for Obama. Is a white southerner and has the FP credentials that Obama needs. Seems a pretty safe pair of hands if not amazingly inspiring. Is a Clinton supporter so might heal that rift.
Just don’t see the attraction of Kaine. Yes he is a Southern Governor but what else does he bring? No FP experience and doesn’t seem to have any particular energy or vitality. Also would mean giving the Republicans the Governorship (the LG is a Republican) in a state that the Democrats are making real progress in.
I remember the day very well, though largely for non-political reasons. I was drinking at the Prince of Wales in Cardiff, between watching England beat Australia on TV, and preparing to go into the Millennium Stadium to see France beat the All Blacks.
As a non-partisan, I had been very impressed with Brown as PM in his first few weeks - he had handled floods and terrorist attacks (as much as a PM ever does) with ease, and an essentially British sense of ‘give him a chance’ had matured into a sincere (and completely wrong) belief that he was very capable, on both policy but also politically. The Thatcher photo-shoot, the ‘moral compass’ speech (even though I flinched at BJFBW, I put it down to a speechwriter’s error), the idea of having a PM who seemed to shun spin (compared to Blair) and appeared to be an intellectual heavyweight (again, compared to Blair - a talented PM, but not an intellectual).
I was realistic about his time as Chancellor - I still think that the Chancellor has very little scope for positive impact but that it is an easy as Chancellor to create havoc - he had avoided an economy-destroying mistake for 10 years, which to my mind made him a decent Chancellor. I don’t set my standards that high.
Had he called the election on (for example) the Monday of the Tory Party Conference, I would almost certainly have voted Labour.
The BBC news flashed up on a TV around 2:30 or so that there would not be a General Election that autumn, and I felt the first indiscernable whiff of concern - why was this being cancelled, how had the message been so confused, and what did it say about him as a person that he felt comfortable governing without a mandate?
I went to the game, drank plenty, and forgot about politics until I got back on Sunday evening. I decided to catch up on what I had missed, and watched this video. I knew then that he had lost the only chance of ever winning an election outright, and that he had stopped being lucky. I could feel the mood amongst my friends (of various political persuasions) turn against him - as much for the duplicity as the cowardice.
I don’t know how I will vote next time around - I think Cameron has developed extraordinarily well over the last year, and is now looking like a PM-in-waiting, though I am less convinced by many of his front bench team - a good local candidate would swing it for me. I think Nick Clegg is a fool, but might vote for the Lib Dems if they put up a fantastic local candidate, and start to develop a serious national platform. I would struggle to vote Labour next time, unless they replace Gordon Brown as leader. If none of the three main parties meet their respective criteria, I think I’ll spoil my ballot paper.
It may sound petty, but not calling that election was (for me at least) the moment that it all changed.
48 quite correct. to the average joe the sight of broon standing there saying ” the constitutional concept was abandoned” was the most blatant lie and the public could never trust the man again.
europhiles will convince themselves that Europe doesnt matter but the sight of your PM lying through his teeth is a vote changing moment.
44. Not sure you can say split opposition in the Gower and Swansea West. Seems clear to me that Swansea West is for the LDs challenger. Gower for the Tories. No split I can see. As for Cardiff hm watch the Council elections for West and South should be as you say but they’re no longer massive bankers.
What do you think of this “Blog Menai offers some of his his predictions for the next general and Assembly elections based on the results of this month’s local elections:
Ynys Môn: The data here isn’t sufficient to base a prediction upon, but it’s hard to see Labour’s demise across Wales not having an effect on this marginal seat (though Môn has a history of going its own way). So Plaid to take the seat in the generals and hold it in the Assembly elections.
Arfon: Plaid to take the seat easily in the generals (on paper it is a Labour seat in the wake of boundary changes), and Plaid to hold the seat in the Assembly elections without problems.
Meirion Dwyfor: Plaid to hold the seat fairly easily in the generals, and to hold it in the Assembly elections -though Llais Gwynedd could be a challenge if things haven’t changed there. Although this was Plaid’s strongest seat by far in the last Assembly elections, I would expect Plaid to get a higher percentage in Arfon and Carmarthen East in the next Westminster and Assembly elections. Electoral harm has been done here.
Ceredigion: Plaid to continue moving forward, so that the Party should regain the Westminster seat in a fairly tight contest, and hold the Assembly seat fairly easily.
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr: Plaid to hold the Westminster and Assembly seats easily. This will be a stronger seat for Plaid than the two Gwynedd seats.
Llanelli: Scrutinising the local election figures I believe Plaid will take this seat for the first time in the generals with a majority of more than 5%. Helen Mary Jones will hold the seat easily in the Assembly as well.
Pembrokeshire Preseli: The Tories to hold the seat easily in the generals. Plaid and not Labour will come second in the Assembly elections.
Carmarthen West Pembrokeshire South: The Tories to take the seat from Nick Ainger in the generals easily. Labour could have problems even coming in second place. Plaid to take the seat from the Tories in the Assembly elections.”
re 49 mother? you’ve lost me now.
re 52, Morus, interesting post.
That said the time I turned against Labour was in 1979 and nothing since has changed my mind
Re 55, ChrisA “re 49 mother? you’ve lost me now.”
Well, surely a child needs a mother and a father in its life?
51 - Clarke is a safe choice, but I really cannot see him as a President-in-waiting choice should the worst happen. Also, I think the Democrats need to choose someone who can run as the incumbant VP (unless Clarke was a one term choice, and was dropped for a new VP when Obama no longer needed the ‘credibility and experience’ support on the ticket). Good, but not great - also seems driven more by uniting the party than anything else. Making the decision on primarily those grounds could be seen as Democratic navel gazing, or a tacit acknowledgement that Obama doesn’t have a strong mandate from his own party. I say unity be damn£d, and choose a good Obama supporter who can take over when needed or run in 8 years.
Kaine ensures Virginia (should win it anyway) and is very competant, and likeable. Fiscally responsible, which will be key if Obama is running on an overhaul of health, education and social security. Not got FP background, but that’s the only weak spot. TIME rated him one of America’s Top 5 governors (with Napolitano, Huckabee, Sibelius, Richardson, and the chap from Nevada).
Glad Webb has ruled himself out. Punter is right at 33 - his Senate seat was too hard to win to give it up so soon, and it’s not like there is a dearth of candidates.
re 52 he had avoided an economy-destroying mistake for 10 years, which to my mind made him a decent Chancellor.
What about his very first act to raid the pension funds, or what about his inability to reduced debt and save for the current rainy day? Pigeons make take a very long time to come home, but roost they will eventually.
Brown likes to spin the the current economic woes are nothing to do with him and that he has been masterly in charge. He’s delusional about this as about many other things.
Re the writ.
Cameron didn’t make a big deal of it when asked about it today.
Said you have to take abit of rough and tumble at by elections but you have to draw the line somewhere and to his mind that was at illegality.
The pictures as Benedict has said were the issue and are illegal.
When asked by a BBC reporter if he should just have let it go he replied along the lines of…
If someone took a picture of you, drew on a Hitler moustache on it and said, ‘Don’t listen to this man he is a nazi’, how would you like it?
…Cut back to reporter saying in a ‘bring it on if they dare’ voice, ‘Well, they could try!’.
I suspect it is about sending a warning shot across the bow of the Labour Dunwoody dirty tricks department and bringing some attention to the unsavioury nature of their campaign.
re 57 yes it does, but you asked me about fathers. I don’t think technology has yet advanced to the point where we could have a child who didn’t have a mother.
52 Morus PC got 5.5% in CS in 2005. Sure they can hurt Labour but you can’t think they can win in 2-3 elections can you really.
C&N joke of the day
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7406957.stm
Meanwhile, with the by-election campaign nearing its end, Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg told BBC Radio 4 he thought his party could win it.
LimpDems are, wait for it, wait for it, 109/1 on Betfair. I didn’t know you could go that high!
PC might get Ynys mon and thats it - no other gains this GE next GE or any other GE
Llanelli has more chance of winning Champions league than electing PC in an GE
In Dumfries and Galloway Council it is Cons 18, Lab 14, SNP 10, LD 3; In East Renfrewshire Council it is Cons 7, Lab 7, SNP 3, LD 1; in Perthshire and Kinross Council it is Cons 12, Lab 3, SNP 18 LD 8; In Scottish Borders Council it is Cons 11, Lab 0, SNP 6, LD 10; and finally in South Ayrshire Council it is Cons 15, Lab 14 with 1 other holding the balance of power. So in 4 council areas where the Conservatives are the largest party they contain key target seats for the Conservatives.
Re 61, ChrisA “re 57 yes it does, but you asked me about fathers. I don’t think technology has yet advanced to the point where we could have a child who didn’t have a mother.”
It has not advanced to the point where you do not need a biological father either though obviously that will not stop people having a biological father who then has no involvement.
The need for the father is based on actual presence rather than biological relationship.
58 - I think Clark is a credible President-in-waiting. He has serious military credibility and FP experience that blunts the McCain attacks of inexperience. Don’t think it is a problem if he doesn’t run as VP again. One election at a time.
Kaine, don’t really know enough about him. But if you rule Webb out for the Senate seat that might be lost why rule out Kaine for the Governorship that will be lost? He may be personable but my view is that you want someone who contrasts with Obama. From the bits that I’ve seen of him he doesn’t have enough impact.
62 - The split in the Assembly Elections in Cardiff South & Penarth in 2007 was:
Labour Co-op: 37.8%
Conservative: 27.5%
Lib Dem: 20.4%
PC: 14.4%
The 2005 General was Labour (47.3%) Conservative (22.2%) Lib Dem (20.4%) and PC (5.5%).
To me, that indicates that Labour voters take refuge in PC rather than in other main parties, and that when Alun Michael steps down and the party doesn’t beenfit from his high personal reputation, there will be a significant anti-Labour swing to PC, with small swings to the Tories and LDs (based on council voting movements). PC have enhanced their credibility as ‘more than a protest in S Wales’ thanks to being in government on the doorstep of this constituency.
I don’t think this will mean PC are competitive in Cardiff South & Penarth this time, but the second or third General Election from now could see them be strong contenders in what I expect to become quite an interesting 3 or 4 way marginal.
64 - I’d expect PC to hold their three seats, and gain Ynys Mon, Ceredigion, and probably Llanelli.
PUNTER - Can you provide a link to Menai Blog? I’ve not come across it before…
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 45% .. Clinton 47%
McCain 46% .. Obama 45%
Clinton 41% .. Obama 52%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107329/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Leads-Clinton-Points.aspx
67 - That’s fair - for the record, I have always said I like Kaine, Webb, and Mark Warner, but that all three of them are better for the Democrats where they are, and for that reason should be overlooked (Webb for other reasons too). I just don’t think Kaine should be excluded from consideration for not being good enough.
I ‘mispoke’ on Clarke - he is absolutely credible, but I just don’t find him Presidential. An able Army Chief of Staff, or Secretary of Defense (if its been long enough since he was an active General), or a solid VP, but I cannot see him as the man in the Oval Office. Probably just me…!
68 OK i forgot about ceredigion (easily done)! Yes I agree they will get rid of the LD there!
LD will only have 1 seat in Wales (Montgomery) and if its REALLY good for Cons they will lose that too……
71 Ave it. Your predictions are as credible as your football team !! LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLLOLO
72 ho ho ho have you been on the sherry this afternoon?
70 - This is why the VP market is a mugs game. It is so difficult to narrow down the field because it comes down to one person’s judgement with lots of different factors in play. I think a lot will depend on whether Obama wants to take risks or play it safe. If he wants safe then I can’t think of someone better than Clark. If he wants a risk there probably isn’t a better one than Webb.
71 - LOL!
But they hold on like vampire bats when they are incumbants. I think they will hold three (Mongomeryshire, Brecon & Radner, and the impregnable Cardiff Central) and stand an outside chance of gaining Swansea West when the Father of the House retires.
My 2009/10 General Election predictions in Wales:
Labour 17 seats, Conservative 11 seats, PC 6 seats, LD 4 seats, Independent 1 seat.
You should be fairly happy if that is the result, shouldn’t you?!
71 You think they’ll lose Cardiff Central?!
75 I’ll take it - TY!!!!
54- I agree- Llanelli will go to Plaid, from what I know, there’s little confidence in the MP and it’ll be very interesting if Helen Mary Jones stands for Westminster. If I was her I would, because she’d win it easily.
Conservatives and Plaid could make serious gains against Labour in Wales at the next General Election. I was looking at the stats yesterday. In the valleys and most of the west, Plaid will soak up the anti-Labour vote while the Conservatives wget it elsewhere. The result could be the Labour vote falling as low as 30% (from 42). This is where Electoral Calculus fails because there’s no consideration of an increase in Plaid vote.
Judging at the current political climate I would expect an increase of about 7-8% for both Tories and Plaid and a fall of 12% for Labour and a fall of 3% for the Liberal Democrats. The very interesting thing is that this would put Labour and the Tories near level in terms of both percentage and seats- quite unbelievably.
Speaking first hand, the anti-Conservative sentiment in Wales is dying out- or rather, the pro Labour sentiment is dying out. Don’t be surprised if Labour lose their Welsh majority. While the swing to the Conservatives won’t be as great as in England, the swing away from Labour will be as Plaid Cymru are going to take a lot of votes away from Labour.
I think it all fell apart when Gordon flew out to Iraq in an attempt to upstage the Tory Party conference.
In itself that would have been fine, “all’s fair in love and war”.
But Gordon went too far by promising the troops personally and not telling Parliament that they would be home for Christmas, which of course they were not. Sending our armed forces to war is part of the job of a PM, politically exploiting them for his own career is not in hie remit.
76: all about the Con comeback in Cardiff! but I’ll take 75!
72 - having seen his football team on Wednesday night, I’d say you’re doing his predictions a grave disservice….
“44 Wrong - While there would be negotiations regarding the detail, the basic prinicple is enshrined in international law - Scotland owns its natural resources without question.
And the maritime border will also be determined by international law which would give Scotland around 90% of the oil reserves.”
The basic principle is determined by whatever is negotiated by the parties. If Scotland sought indpendence, you can’t imagine an English government would make things easy for them?
74 - A mug’s game? It’s certainly volatile, but there is a lot of money that always goes on no-hopers, so if you rule out certain candidates you can normally make some profit. You could lay the ones you think are unlikely, but I find betting on a limited number of plausible candidates after ruling out the impossibles gives better odds.
I’m green on Richardson (very), Sibellius, and Bayh.
I’m neutral on Clarke or Clinton (I think both choices would be faily forced).
I’m red-and-then-some on Webb, Obama, Edwards, Gore, Nunn, Warner, Strickland, Dodd and Biden (thinking about neutralising my exposure on Biden).
83 - indeed, the VP market seems to resemble the Grand National - outsiders think it’s a lottery with a colossal number of runners; shrewdies realise there’s only a dozen or so potential winners and back them at inflated double-digit prices.
83. I’d reduce your redness on Edwards, if I were you…
Ladbrokes have suspended Obama on the ‘next president’ market??
Also Cons suspended at C&N (but not Lab or Lib Dems).
England/NZ to be a draw at 1/16 or Cons to win C&N at 1/8. Which is better value??? A crazy world…
82 - quite. I think some people forget that once the Scots vote for Independence, the rest of the UK will be under no obligation to them whatsoever in their subsequent negotiations and dealings.
84 - Kieran is a shrewd as most on the VP selections, and although I agree with you on the VP market, he makes a good point.
My problem is that (to a certain extent) I bet on who Obama *should* choose, not who he will. It is such a personal decision, and there will be so many extra factors, that he could pull a decision from out of left field, and confound even the most knowledgeable punter. Having said that, I still think there are some names bandied about that are so untenable, that no nominee would choose them. It’s just deciding where to draw the line in the pursuit of profit.
The claim that he didn’t want it wasn’t exactly Shermanesque was it? I thought about reducing my exposure when there were rumours he would endorse, but something held me back. I don’t think Obama owes him (if Edwards had come out for him after Florida, he could have helped with white working class voters during the contests - he didn’t and Obama is still having to wait) and I share people’s concern about how useful he actually is on the ticket.
If I was concerned, I’d cover it off, but that would reduce my profits on Richardson and the others, and I still think they are more likely.
82/88 - although it is a very interesting question as to how those negotiations could operate. Since the Scots will presumably be still represented in Westminster you could have rather a large number of conflicts of interest! Could political independence happen BEFORE negotiations are concluded?
There’s a passage from Brown in that interview which given the recent £2.7 billion borrowed to fund the 10p tax compensation makes for interesting reading:
“when you come to dissect the Conservative policies if you throw £5 billion at a problem, 2p on income tax at a problem, and not show how you’re going to fund it, then for a short moment you can persuade people that you’ve got a policy but when it comes to the forensic job of dissecting that policy it will be found that the Conservative policy not just doesn’t add up, but leads to economic disarray.”
87 - The England draw is better value IMHO - I don’t think we know enough about C&N or how the smear tactics are working (because they do work more often than we would like).
Does anyone really think that the Tories’ chances in C&N are really almost as good as Obama for the nomination?
For the record, I stand to lose £40 to some of our best posters if Labour don’t hold C&N. I have not-too-much of a problem with the ‘Toff’ stuff - it’s facile and disappointing, but not the end of politics as we know it - however after the ‘friend of paedophiles’ smear, I’m actually looking forward to writing the cheques.
82: I suspect that the rest of Europe (not to mention much of the rest of the English speaking world) will be only too happy to help the Scots.
93 - What? Lend them their navies or something?
73 Ave It. Sherry trifle actually !!
93. You seem to assume that Scotland will be a member of the EU. Thats a matter for the remainder of the UK and the other member states, and will be subject to negotiations, and can be vetoed by any single member state. It would be a rich irony if that, the Scots had to surrender their exploration rights as a condition of membership of a club that they pre independence are already a member of. ROFL.
94. The English don’t seem to realise how unpopular they are internationally. I once turned a hostile Frenchman into a friend by saying “Je ne suis pas anglais, je suis ecossais”.
Just back from Crewe. Personally delivered 500 copies of the “News on Sunday” leaflet. A very busy and well run Campaign office in Crewe - plenty of helpers, loads from Conservative Future.
I delivered in what you would expect to be solid Labour council estates - the sort of place they used to spell out VO-TE LA-BO-UR over five adjacent sets of bedroom windows!
Not so much these days. I counted 23 houses with Labour posters. (Including the gloriously ironic “Tamsin Dunwoody - one of us!”. She shares so much with the people of Crewe - if they happen to live 175 miles away and have an entry in Debrett’s!). I saw two houses with Conservative posters (are the folk of Crewe going soft or what? There was a time they would have been burnt to the ground for their temerity….)
The thing that truly astonished me though was that in these 500 houses there was NOT ONE LIB-DEM POSTER!!! And I was looking - almost obsessively by the end. I thought I had spotted one orange diamond in the very last street - but it turned to be a sign saying “Kangaroos x-ing”… WTF is going on in this place????
Neither did I see a Lib-Dem activist today. Lots of Labour - they have wheeled them in from far and wide. One guy kept turning up to leaflet a street I had just done. Happened several times. All very good natured stuff though. I reckon they are going through the motions, but they know it isn’t close enough to be worth getting nasty about.
But not a single Lib-Dem. Wow….they have a few high profile poster sites on some of the main roads - as you’d expect. But not one little gold diamond in a big council estate? Weird. Either they have no support - or they are telling their supporters to hide and deny their allegiance until Thursday. I can’t work out which is the more improbable.
Wasn’t canvassing, but spoke to a good few people. Still some of the “always have, always will” Labour types in evidence. But quite a few who said they won’t be voting Labour this time. And I was surprised at just how well the Conservatives are being received. People were even reading our literature, for God’s sake. Have they no shame? Don’t they know what the recycling bin is for?? Oh, and the “toff” stuff? Playing very badly. The Tories were praised for not sinking into the sewer with Labour by playing the smear game themselves.
Was amused by three kids who asked me what I was giving out. When I said I was from the Tories, one girl said “my mum’s a Tory!” And then her mate pipes up “My mum’s a Tory too!” Then one of the lads said “I don’t like the Tories!” I left him being beaten up by the two girls….
These council estates in Crewe took me back a good few years to my childhood. Exactly the sort of place my grandparents lived. A lovely bright sunny day, everyone out and about in their gardens - lots of impeccably cut privet hedges and bowling-green flat lawns and jaunty bedding plants.
There is a lot of civic pride still here amongst these people. And they take as much interest in the way their country is governed. Gordon, beware. You have p1ssed off the mowing and hedge-cutting and strimming class. I suspect they are going to mow and cut and strim your vote on Thursday.
McCain on Saturday Night Live
Yeah baby!: http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/mccain_on_snl.php
89 - Well I suppose there is some mileage in that approach but the effort/reward ratio isn’t great. I would definitely concur with the should/will problem. For me that aplies to Clinton for example where there are lots of arguments for putting her on the ticket but he really doesn’t want to.
The way I look at it is what would the ideal candidate look like:
1. Southerner
2. Governor
3. Foreign-policy experience
4. Presidential
5. Experienced
6. Good on the stump
7. Does no harm
No candidate does all of these so even deciding who he should nominate is tricky without trying to factor in Obama’s personal preferences. My problem is that I can see reasons why everybody mentioned shouldn’t get it.
Take the ones you back. Richardson - minority-minority ticket questionable in terms of white working class. Sibelius - ditto minority-woman ticket. Kansas is not in play, it is a poke in the eye for Clinton and her SOTU address didn’t go down well. Bayh - Senator-Senator ticket questionable, although he is a former Governor. Don’t get me wrong these are all credible contenders it’s just nobody stands out to me.
Some discussion on Kos on whether Mississippi is in play for Obama. Perhaps the question should be with a AA population of 38% why ever not ??
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/18/115022/815/380/517291
97. The scots have played the victim card for a long time, despite Scots playing a large part in our enterprises over seas.
We are obsessed with centralisation in this country. Would it not be possible to givs Scots more autonomy then they have right now? How about revenues collected and spent within Scotland, including vat, income tax, etc?
Autonomy within the Union?
98 — Very vivid portrait; thank you.
Alex,
It is an interesting point agingjb makes. Scotland historically is close to France, the Netherlands and Poland and has Ireland, Norway, Iceland and Denmark as its other neighbours. There are many EU countries which would love to annoy England by supporting the Scots. After all its the UK which is a member of the EU not England though I appreciate that millions of people south of Hadrian’s Wall dont actually know there is any difference. There is a view among Jurists (that’s legal experts not 12 men and women who sit in an English criminal court)that each constituent country within the UK would require to apply for membership of the EU and whilst as a Tory I disagree with many of their policies the SNP do support most mainstream EU policies like membership of the Euro, the Shengen agreement etc. I seem to remember when studying International PRivate Law almost 30 years ago that determining questions of territorial waters etc are farly clearly defined. Then of course the good people of Berwick might carry out their threat of voting to return to Scotland and that would move both the land and maritime east coast borders south by a mile or two.
101 - Because in 2004 Bush got 85% of the white vote, and the Democratic Primary saw Hillary getting one of her largest shares of the white vote IIRC.
O/T
I hope you enjoyed the absorbing days cricket at Lords.
Could have sworn I saw you chatting to John McCririck discussing the odds about Michael Vaughan scoring 100!
97. Oh no, an angry frenchman, like we haven’t dealt with a fair few of those over the centuries.
105 Kieran. Points taken. However the GOP is a tainted brand now, even in Mississippi and with AA differential turnout and the vast AA voter registration drives taking place I believe McCain will have to spend time and money shoring up his southern base.
Re 101, Jack W “Perhaps the question should be with a AA population of 38% why ever not ??”
Have they got that many members of alcoholics anonymous?
107
But us, Frenchy Boys in North America, we love you people of England, and we encourage you not to fuse with continental Europe, to keep on with that salvatory Euro-scepticism… and to protect yourself from islamization… Ha!
108 - In his GE Map,
Ambinder put Mississipi into McCain’s base states
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/the_general_election_map.php
I am pleased to hear from Marquee Mark that the Labour supporters he has encountered today were good humoured. When a party like Labour this time approve of a very nasty set of campaign tactics, some of the A**eholes on the fringes start to take things too far. In 1987 when I was the Tory candidate in Glasgow Shettleston, while my Labour opponent was a very honourable and decent man (and David Marshall still is), some of his election team were rattled that a Tory would dare campaign on “their” territory in council estates around Parkhead and Dalmarnock. As a consequence on several occasions I was threatened with violence by Labour party workers making allegations as to the marital status of my parents at the time of my birth and calling me among other things a toff and carpetbagger. On polling day a group of said Labour party workers punched and jostled me when I was doing some call outs and decided that kicking my car was perfectly proper behaviour. The irony was that I was visiting an aunt of my father’s and her husband who chose to live in the particular location and who I knew had no intention of voting for me as Labour diehards. I just hope that as Thursday approaches no hotheads surrounding the Labour campaign get over excited and resort to actions which go beyond the pathetic name calling which all the Labour toffs and their minions have been engaging in for the past 10 days.
108/113
Yet Chuck Todd and Tim make Mississippi only a McCain-leaning state if Obama’s the nominee :
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/03/11/753715.aspx
“*** Turning Mississippi blue? Take a look at Alabama (Obama won it by 14 points), Georgia (by 35 points), Louisiana (by 21 points) and South Carolina (by 28 points), and you’ll get an idea about Obama’s likely margin of victory. Frankly, if Clinton keeps Obama under 15 points, she may have a moral victory. That said, it wouldn’t be surprising if Obama won by 20-plus points considering the makeup of Mississippi’s electorate. In fact, Mississippi is one of those rare Southern states that might be in play in the general election if Obama becomes the nominee. One Dem statistician tells First Read that there are three red states that could swing if African-American turnout was ever maximized (both in registration and in actual turnout): Georgia, Louisiana and, yes, Mississippi. So don’t assume this is just one of those untouchable red states for the Dems when watching returns roll in tonight. ”
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/23572398#23572398
Jack W, the Conservatives were a tainted brand before Cameron came along. I reckon, and hope, this will be much closer than you think, and that McCain can win.
104 Easterross. Territorial waters are not clearly defined. Yes the existence of separate legal systems in England and Scotland means there’s already a division of the North Sea into two component regions.
However, oil would mean a new legal ball game if Scotland achieved independence. The hypothetical divide could mean using the international principle of equidistance, as applied under the UN Conventions on the Laws of the Sea.
While Scotland may well end up with most of the oil and gas the UK could use the conflicting law to make independence much more problematical.
107. Are you planning a rerun of Agincourt? If it’s Waterloo, remember the charge of the Scots Greys with the Gordon Highlanders hanging on their stirrups to get to the enemy more quickly.
110. Have you ever been to the UK?
104 and 65 Easterross. The Tories have doone well with the STV system for local government in Scotland. Do you think there will be a move to change the Parliamentray elections to STV too? IT would get rid of the two classes of MSP.
1 “Just for Mark Senior this one. We know that Mark absolutely loves these tiny sub-samples, if they flatter the Lab Dims (otherwise of course then in Mark’s honest opinion they are utter tripe).”
What rubbish. Mark has been consistent in saying these subsamples are meaningless. He has sometimes shown the ones you choose not to publicise, to show how selective you are in putting them up.
119
Only in London — a couple of weeks.
Jack - Obama could win MS but only in a landslide IMO i.e. 55% + nationally. Clinton won the white vote in the Primary 70-26. In 2004 Blacks made up 34% of voters. The ceiling on this is surely the low 40s. That still needs him to win 20-25% of the white vote at least. If he wins here or McCain has to defend it then it is over for him. If it is a close election I don’t think MS will be the battleground.
A note on brand. Remember the 1976 result. The GOP brand was in the tank and yet Carter only just beat Ford.
116
Dick Morris has a good advices for McCain — to win :
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/16/AR2008051603729.html
123
Rasmussen Reports primary poll in Mississippi :
“If Obama is nominated, just 47% of Clinton voters say they are even somewhat likely to vote for Obama in the general election against John McCain.”
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/mississippi/mississippi_democratic_presidential_primary
If this happen to be true, Obama can make it.
Im afraid its exactly the same on the GOP VP market. I have no less than 5 runners though most have been layed off as they had a moment in the spotlight, their price contracted and then as the train moved on to some other possible candidate, their oddas drifted some.
A few have stayed prominent such as Pawlenty, Crist and others such as the Huckster, who I was lucky to get at big odds and lay off easily have waxed and waned.
117 SLAM, You made my point. There will be NO UK. There will only be England, Wales and Northern Ireland.There will be no Great Britain. There will only be England, Wales and Northern Ireland. The negotiations will be between the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh and the English Parliament in Westminster. The Welsh and Northern Irish will probably also decide to go their own way. The UK Government stood shoulder to shoulder with other EU and Nato countries to insist that Montenegro separated from the rump Yugoslavia leaving Serbia and more recently Kosovo from Serbia. The same countries would equally arbitrate between Scotland and England if our 2 countries could not agree things.
PP’s have Clinton at 1-2000 to win in Kentucky and Obama at 18’s…
Whats the over round on that?
126
Do you have Romney? Does he stand a chance?
If memory serves me(probably doesn’t) offshore territory is allocated by extending borders out to sea. As the England/Scotland border points North East, the continuation cuts through the North Sea fields - so a large chunk of the best fields belong to England anyway. Just look at the map!
126 - I’ve found the GOP harder, even though they have fewer viable candidates.
I’m very green on Pawlenty, Crist and Sanford.
I’ve laid off of Huckabee and Rice and taken some modest profits - a little more no-risk profit if they actually get chosen.
Hagel, Lieberman and Romney would be very bad results for me, and
I have a little more exposure on Giuliani that I’d like, but I can’t bring myself to reverse that at the moment. Thinking about backing Bloomberg or Jindal as outsiders, but again, never quite want to put the money down because it feels too risk-averse.
129 - not a lot, it’s 105.21% (99.95% + 5.26%).
It is in fact considerably better than the over-round in a more competitive event e.g. 4/6 v 11/10 = 107.62%
In general however I would agree that conventional bookies should be a bit more competitive at the extreme odds.
129 - 1-2000 is 99.95% and 18-1 is about 5.25%, so about 105.2% - not extortionate, but no value there.
129. Nope.
I had Crist (layed off for very modest profit), Sanford (zero profit as he’s been pretty static much of the time so have just balanced the account), Huckster (who has done me very well bet and lay and was my first bet in the market) and Chris Cox, left to run because I completly missed laying him opff when the going was good and Jindal who is currently unlayed. I will seek to lay off on Jindal. Hes near half the odds that I got him at. All in, thanks to Huckabee the balance is ok but laying Jindal will boost it a bit.
Apparently McCain doesnt even like Romney and GOP polling suggests that Romney won’t bring much to the ticket. The idea that Romney may galvanise the conservative vote who are wary of McCain may nto be borne out in reality. In addition, the GOP have plans to mark Obama as so left wing that the conservatives are going to be sh1t scared of him and will get out and vote McCain whatever their reservations thus allowing McCain to spend his time trying to farm tehe centre.
Before anyone starts to say it won’t work or whatever, I dont care. I’m just stating what they plan to do. I am not saying its going to work or otherwise.
By all accounts in the GOP porimaries, if you felt Bush stank you most often tilted to McCain. If you felt Bush was pretty good, you most often tended Romney. If that is so you only have to work out what the GOP rank and file think of Bush…
131 - this was in the news some time last year regarding Scotland’s oil. Not sure how true it is.
Easterross Not sure about that. England is the biggest single EU market, and realpolitik takes over when money is concerned.
A break away Scotland will not be popular with Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Italy and most of the old Eastern Block entrants as they all have secessionist or separatist threats of their own and they see great danger in encouraging breakaways.
So Scotland may not be that welcome, and the UK, which is an EU member, will still exist. Scotland will be a new entity which will need to apply for membership. England as part of the EU will already be in the club.<