Will Thursday’s C&N disaster make the case for this man?
May 19th, 2008
Is John Denham the person who can retain Labour’s English supporters?
Because of Gordon Brown’s tendency to make most of the government’s announcements himself we rarely get a chance to see ministers like the Innovation and Universities Secretary, John Denham, in action. Doing a video search of BBC news and you realise how rarely he’s given a chance to appear on television.
Yet from looking at the five minutes clip above from this year’s BBC’s local election results programme you see a very different sort of politician from that we are used to from Labour. Here is somebody, I believe, who has a style and approach that is more right for English voters, particularly those in the south, than just about anybody else in the cabinet.
The English dimension is critical because much of the blame for the result in Crewe & Nantwich will be put upon the “Toff” campaign devised by the Glasgow-born Steve McCabe MP. His view of the world simply doesn’t resonate south of the border.
In the wider analysis of Labour’s likely failure much attention will, I believe, be focussed on the way that the party has lost the support of the white working class - something that was highlighted by Sean Fear’s excellent analysis of the London mayoral result here on Friday. Crewe and Nantwich is 97.9% white.
Denham, of course, is the only one of the ministers who resigned over Labour’s decision to invade Iraq who is still active. He was Minister of State at the Home Office until March 2003. It’s said that Gordon blocked his appointment as Chief Secretary to the Treasury in the aftermath of Tony Blair’s 2005 general election victory.
He sits for Southampton Itchen which he took from the Tories in the 1992 general election and is one of the few bastions for Labour left in southern England. I could see a Denham-led Labour party being very challenging for David Cameron - much more so than the other names that are often mentioned.
In the “next Labour leader” betting Denham is sixth favourite at 10/1.
Mike Smithson
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Any Labour MPs thinking of forcing Brown out need to be very careful - they have absolutely no idea who would win a Labour leadership election.
It is likely there would be a few candidates and no obvious front runner. In these ways, it would be similar to last year’s Deputy Leader election and that showed that it can almost come down to a lottery, with the result ultimately determined by a handful of 5th preferences.
Some might say “so what, anyone would be better than Brown”. But I suggest these people should be very wary of Cruddas. He did very well in the Deputy leader election and has certainly strengthened his position in the last year.
After the Brown debacle, I think a lot of Party members and Union members may well be highly tempted by Cruddas as he will appeal very strongly to the traditional roots of the Party.
He would, of course, be a huge turn-off to Middle England and would therefore be an absolute gift for the Conservatives. He would mean wipe-out on a much bigger scale than even Brown.
Dare Labour MPs risk it?
“His view of the world simply doesn’t resonate south of the border.”
Mike, it does not resonate North of the Border either! We have a Viscount and a Baronet sitting as members of the Westminster Parliament, both Libdems I might add.
” the “Toff” campaign devised by the Glasgow-born Steve McCabe MP”
Labour have been pushing that ‘tory toffs’ line for while now, it started long before this by-election.
They tried painting him as a chameleon on a bicycle. Then they tried to make him look weak with ‘Hug A Hoodie’. Now they’re trying to make him into a ‘Toff’. Fact is they don’t have a clue how to challenge Cameron, and that all of these three/four ideas are contradictory to some extent. He might be a Toff who is soft on crime, changes his colours and rides a bicycle, but political messages need to be simple.
The problem for the Trots is that their product is past its sell-by date. They could come up with a great attack on Cameron, but the audience isn’t looking at Cameron. It’s looking at Brown. Until Labour can either sell Brown, or replace him successfully, their slogan writers are on a hiding to nothing.
New Labour, New Danger is what’s in peoples’ minds - ten years after the Conservatives ran the slogan. That failed for similar reasons. Voters weren’t looking at Labour in 1996/7. The Conservatives had become the issue. They aren’t today.
Until people start to believe ‘you’re safe with labour’, it’s all over lads, whether it’s Toffs, chameleons, bicycles, hoodies or anything else. They want to get rid of you as soon as they possibly can. You’re a political disease for which the only cure is ten years in Opposition minimum.
Anyone reading and replying to Mike’s thread would do well to refer as he has suggested to Sean Fear’s Friday slot for May 16th if they have not already done so and even reread it as I just did.
If Mike Smithson is the champagne and caviar of this great site, then Sean Fear is the meat and potatoes.
I would raise one caveat.Ken Livingstone is just simply the most divisive politician in the land. A lot of people loved him and would only have voted for him as the Labour candidate for Mayor and yet others were equally motivated to vote against him whereas they might have voted for a different Labour candidate.
Some aspects of Sean Fear’s report are not that worrying for NuLab.They do show that disaffected natural Tory voters are coming back in numbers.Labour’s best hope is that is the main reason for their success in recent polls.
The other hope is that the white working class voters who rejected Ken Livingstone might not so readily reject Labour in a GE.
One aspect that should worry Labour is that the Muslims who embraced KL might just as firmly reject them.On the other hand,the Jewish vote will be for Cameron as evinced by the Tories great showing in Bury where there is a considerable Jewish vote in Bury South.Remember that there wasn’t a ‘Ken’ factor there although reverberations of his intemperate outburst against the Evening Standard reporter may have filtered through.
I would be tempted to suggest ex-Mayor Livingstone for next Labour leader but he has a few hurdles to jump first.
Finally,the Lib Dems might worry a tad about Boris’s good showing in places like Richmond and Kingston.
I think you’re ahead of the game as ever Mike. Denham has a case irrespective of the C&N result. He appeared on Hard Talk recently and gave an extremely good account of himself, regrettably the interview is no longer on iPlayer. His availability for such a grilling at the moment may hint at bourgeoning ambition.
Denham has a lot going for him:-
He likes cricket.
He resigned over Iraq, which shows conviction and foresight.
He’s not a lawyer or a PR man.
He sounds less scripted than most, very important.
He wasn’t sullied by the deputy leadership election shambles.
He’s got a chemistry degree, which is strangely reassuring in a Labour MP.
His surname is not Milliband.
He has a low slappability quotient.
He’s the right sort of age.
He hasn’t got much to lose.
He’s good value at 10/1.
In short, the thought of him being PM does not make me feel physically ill and as such he is unique in the PLP.
Back on topic, if the Boss thinks John Denham has the right stuff, good enough for me to give him strong consideration.
Especially as he voted against the Iraq War.
Denham is from the proper side of the Border AND the Wash, leastways with respect to the Blair-Brown-Cameron North Briton Front.
Question I have, are the Lib Dems throwing their share of the fight? Saving their powder for Henley, in large measure because they’d rather see the Tory’s take C&N rather than Labour hold it?
6. John Denham voted to block the referendum promised on Lisbon. This will make him vulnerable to attack for breach of promise. Iraq is less of an issue now, as the economy is biting.
Labour only has a chance of rebuilding the brand if it admits mistakes. The first and largest of those must be the way Lisbon was handled and the promised referendum was removed.
The next leader will have to be from the 29 who rebelled. Kate Hoey, for example. Why should any voter trust any of the others? They’ve already shot themselves in the foot, and proved their anti-democratic credentials.
Lib Dems are converting from Labour stool pigeons into Tory tool pigeons (Clegg has gone public declaring he will back a Conservative government in a hung Parliament). Politics is a business to most MPs these days, and keeping their own positions intact is paramount, with principles of low significance. Hence the public’s rage which is ready to snuff out New Labour at the first opportunity provided.
No doubt the LImps are hoping for a bit of tactical in return for playing it light here and there, as they did with Blair. If 200 labour seats are going begging, the Limps want to pick up their ’share’.
John Denham comes across well for a Labour politician and doesn’t appear scared to admit that sometimes the Government gets things wrong - if Gordon would do the same with some grace he might not be in the position he is now. There are a couple of points though. Firstly the rules mean 70 Labour MPs have to be prepared to dump Gordon, something I don’t think will happen. For this to happen there would need to be a clear campaign against Gordon, and Denham clearly isn’t running anything of the sort. DMilliband might be, but I don’t think Labour MPs would willingly replace the miserable Scot with an android. THen again there is no accounting for taste as Chris Huhne knows to his cost…
Secondly John Denham now faces a strong test at the next election simply to keep his seat, doesn’t he? Sean will no doubt be able to tell us how many of the Itchen council seats are now Conservative held under a Conservative run council, but if I were a Labour MP I’d be concerned about this.
Thirdly, and most damning IMHO, why would he want to be Labour leader now? It would take a massive ego to believe that you can change around the fortunes of a Government that, quite simply, people are bored of. The country wants a change. John Denham doesn’t have an ego that big - which is his good point. DMilliband and James Purnell probably do though…
Fourthly, although John Denham comes across well on TV in the few interviews he has done, and snowflake used to support him to be leader, does he have the ability to be PM? He’s never held one of the big three cabinet posts, indeed this is his first Cabinet position after MoS positions before. There is a real difference between being an SoS and PM. As Gordon is finding out! Who was the last person to become PM having never held the position of Chancellor, Home Secretary, Foreign Secretary or Leader of the Opposition? Think back - you go a long way back!
8 Agree with just about everything you’ve posted (while waiting for you toast to cool?) this thred.
EXCEPT methinks you are seriously overstating the importance of Lisbon & Eurocontroversies in general upon the politics (electoral & otherwise) leading to the new general election.
As for Denham’s Iraq position, the point is not so much the war itself, but on his principled AND correct stand. Shows both guts AND good judgement.
PS - The cold toast is the real reason the Mother Country lost the affections of the revolting colonists . . .
6 Diogenes
Excellent post.
“the thought of him being PM does not make me feel physically ill and as such he is unique in the PLP.”
How many others can you say that about? I guess, for me, the same applies to the Tory Party [Pretty Boy Dave faction] front bench.
Malcolm
12 - Ah, but the average Brit has a much stronger stomach than you! Esp. after you’ve weakened yours with too many pancakes, waffles and other fine American breakfast fare . . . including the Shoney’s bfast bar on your southern excursions . . .
“Yet from looking at the five minutes clip above from this year’s BBC’s local election results programme you see a very different sort of politician from that we are used to from Labour.”
Can’t say I agree. Mr Dimbleby saw through his spinning attempt, showing the viewing public yet another lying Labour bod.
can’t do links from phone but politicshome is carrying a Telegraph report that Clegg will prop up the Tories in a hung parliament. I hope mark s is not too gutted!
15 There is nothing new in the Telegraph report , Test , there was a similar news story run a couple of months ago , Marcus Wood got over excited about it at the time . I doubt whether there is actually anything new in the story . The country will need as much protection the LibDems can give to save it from a Conservative government minority or majority .
Obviously, haven’t being paying attention, but will someone please tell me who “Snowflake” is and why?
17 Snowflake was/is a regular poster on PB. Look in the blog roll for a link. She suggested support for John Denham if Gordon wasn’t made leader. Must have been early last year. However I now note her support is for Ed Milliband, a truly frightening thought.
Denham has 3 big big problems:
1. his seat is not safe
2. he is dull/inexperienced in the top jobs despite being in the govt party for 11 years
3. he would be leading a party which is essentially schizophrenic!
If Denham’s seat is not safe then the Labour party are in trouble His seat is Conservative target 203 and Lib Dem 241 - He has a majority of 9000 with 48.3% of the total vote.
Mike’s been cheerleading John Denham for as long as I can recall - but I think it’s a great call (let’s quietly forget about Tessa…) Human, principled, interviews well, and politically helpful for a middle class Englishman.
Some downsides though….
Firstly, he could do with a haircut. In fact, he looks and sounds like a competent unassuming, unflashy man. I wonder if he has the presence or the charisma to turn around a Government which has badly lost its way.
Secondly, is there any evidence that he could inspire loyalty? He has resigned before, and given the nature of certain Labour MPs at present, could he really achieve unity in the short term?
Thirdly, low media presence - related to (1) but I don’t think that joe public knows who he is - and that’s worrying for a cabinet minister with leadership aspirations.
In short, I think he would do too good a job as PM by far for Labour to pick him, I am increasingly sensing that Brown will cling on.
I think the fact that we are even discussing someone as otherwise forgettable as John Denham as leader sums up the dilemmna facing Labour at the moment.
He would have done as a ‘John Major’ figure to replace Blair; not an emergency placeman.
What Labour will need to replace Brown is an inspirational figure to reassure the wavering and rally the faithful at a time of crisis.
With all due respect, that isn’t Denham at all.
Nice theory Mike, however, there is no eveidence I know of that would give the great Britsh public any reason to think Denham is up to it. We are talking about the PM here, Labour cannot just parachute in any old Joe because he might sound nice south of the border.
22. “What Labour will need to replace Brown is an inspirational figure to reassure the wavering and rally the faithful at a time of crisis.”
Who do you have in mind, Marcus?
[23] I wonder how many people had heard of John Major when he ran for his Party’s leadership? And he’d only held great offices of State for five minutes (I exaggerate slightly).
Denham would be a leap in the dark. It’s how Labour could organise a leadership election that concerns me - the system is designed for Opposition.
Anyway, I have a stinking cold so I’m going back to bed.
6 Brilliant post Diogenes - why don’t we see more of you on PB.com?
I backed Denham at 25-1 with Hills just a month ago when their odds were more generous than Ladbrokes, but they appear to have taken down their market on “Next Labour Leader”
22,24 I’m not sure I would describe Blair as “inspirational”, but he certainly fitted the bill and delivered three GE victories which is three more than the present incumbent will achieve.
Two ways Labour could conceivably do better if they could find a way to get rid of Gordon:
a) A long-shot at maintaining what’s left of their big-tent coalition by putting in someone more charismatic than Brown. The only one I can think of is Tony Blair, I’m afraid…
b) Give it up and shore up the base and keep them above the 30% mark with a non-bonkers, principled lefty who looks like a real change. Chris Mullin?
Their other option is just to hang on and hope something lucky happens that will change the terms of the game. (The obvious thing would be war with Iran.) Personally I think that’s probably their best shot. And given the inertia in the process (the difficulty of removing Gordon, the uncertainty about whether they’d end up doing any better, the difficulty in finding one person who simultaneously unites the party and looks like a real change) I think them hanging on to Gordon is also the most likely outcome.
There are two main threads to this.
1. Would Denham make a sound choice as PM (debate his abilities) almost not something betting people should dwell on. His recent record of Leadership in Southampton is poor judged by the awful political mistakes his Labour councillors made which have in turm put his own seat at risk.
2. Could Denham be elected as Labour Leader?
This is entirely possible because the field after Brown is wide open. That said it is David Milliband’s election to lose.
I followed most of yesterday’s discussion regarding Irish, Scottish and Welsh politics, although unfortunately I was unable to contribute myself. However, I would just like to interject a some of points:
- Ireland’s record of ‘neutrality’ during WWII is undoubtedly mixed, however I think most fair and informed commentators would have to conclude that the Irish (both the population and the organs of the state) leaned very heavily in favour of the Allies. Ireland’s record during the period leading up to WWII, and during the actual war, compares very favourably with other supposedly ‘neutral’ European states. I am thinking particularly of Sweden here, which has some disgraceful corners of its modern history, which the English-speaking world is nearly universally ignorant of.
- Ireland is not the European country with no history of state anti-semitism. Scotland is. At least according to the Jewish-Scottish academic David Daiches.
- I value the contributions of several fellow Scots to pb.com. I was particularly interested in Easterross’s recent contributions. He says he was the Tory candidate at the 1987 UK GE in Glasgow Shettleston, so he must be… ? ? (why is the internet so rubbish at recent modern history? - all I can find from that contest is: “In 1987, there was a large swing from the Tories to Labour and David Marshal took 63.6 % of the vote, increasing his majority to 18,981. The Tories took 13.3 %, the SNP’s Jim McVicar moved into third place with 12.7 %, while the Alliance fell back to 10.4 %”). So, can anybody tell me the name of the Conservative candidate in that constituency that year? Anyway, I welcome his conversion (?) to the independence side of the fence. We may well find ourselves in the same political party post-independence.
- Somebody made a pathetic attempt to defend Mark Senior. I am not having any of it. Mark Senior is the only regular pb’er who is, in my honest opinion, a blatant, proven hypocrite and ’spreader of untruths’. His attempts are deception and ‘finessing the truth’ are always to be ridiculed.
- ‘Man Named Bolted Horse’ - a wee word of advice: Google, Wikipedia and time are your friends. Use them!! In other words, please do at least some research before voicing your judgement on a topic. “I once saw a tv programme” is not widely respected as a source by most sentient beings.
Wanna sell your vote?
Yes you can! : http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0508/Saturday_Reading_This_cant_be_legal.html
John Denham - a really good politician. He is a litmus test for me, I expect to agree with him, and think again if I do disagree with him.
Sadly too thoughtful/cerebral and not enough of a political infighter.
In a fairer less cynical world, he would be a good leader.
O/T The story about Clegg altering the party line on which Govt they will support if its a hung parliament, will be interesting if other news media follow up because they believe that there is substance to it.
If not, then look at the fact that it is run by a Labour supporting writer for the Telegraph and wonder why such an important story is not under the byline of the Political Editor?
30. Stuart, on the right of this page is a link “UK Elections 1885 -”.
Take the link “Scottish Burghs 1983-1997″ and you will soon find the 1987 Shettleston result.
Cheers Alan
So, the Tory candidate in the 1987 GE in Glasgow Shettleston was… ta-da: “J.M.S. Fisher”! Jamie? Joseph? Janice? Jeremiah? Jock? …
“Easterross” will do just fine.
O/T Big Time! Looking at the betting markets for the week ahead, I couldn’t help but notice that the UK entry for the Eurovision Song Contest, which Sir Terry Wogan describes as “one of our strongest for years”, is priced at 599-1 with Betfair.
How are the mighty fallen!
“If Mike Smithson is the champagne and caviar of this great site, then Sean Fear is the meat and potatoes”
Many thanks.
If Labour do want to win back white working class voters, bringing in all ethnic-minority shortlists isn’t really the way to go about it.
On the face of it, I think Denham would be a good choice. The Leader’s Boost would make it fairly easy for him to hold his seat.
I have been far too busy with work and family committments during the last week to post much here at pb.com, however there was one item last week which may be of interest to those who contributed to yesterday’s discussion on Ireland, Scotland, and the Union in general. It was a thought-provoking piece by veteran columnist and arts specialist Joyce McMillan (Labour), Visiting Professor, School of Drama & Creative Industries, Queen Margaret University, Edinburgh:
‘Rioting Rangers fans have weakened the Union they so love’
- “On one hand, they embrace the Union and all its insignia. Yet, on the other hand, in a low-level replay of what happened to the Loyalists of Northern Ireland, their aggression, their tribalism, and their residual passion for a cause long forgotten by most modern Britons, drives a fatal wedge between them and the people of England, and helps to weaken the Union they love.”
http://news.scotsman.com/opinion/Joyce-McMillan-Rioting-Rangers-fans.4094143.jp
http://joycemcmillan.wordpress.com/
I think this could be a good call esp if Labour lose heavily and need a unity candidate in opposition to rebuild. The next generation may look at what happened to Hague and think this is the man to do the first term before we go in and take over.
I’m not sure the Labour MP’s will get rid of Brown. We mustn’t forget that they are standing down in their droves at the moment. Why should a quitter risk the aggro of getting rid of him.
So as the worst week for Brown since… well last week gets under way he has to put up with Janet Daley chewing over his problems, Hain trying to be helpful in the Guardian. The fall-out from Harriet being a little too honest and the balance of opinion writing him off. One small crumb of comfort for Gordon is that Mystic Mogg reckons the pendulum is swinging.
38. Yes, it is ironic, Stuart. I heard a football correspondent on Radio Scotland saying it was ridiculous that he saw only two Saltires in a sea of Union flags.
Another Radio Scotland commentator said that, on the morning of the game, he was in his hotel in Manchester city centre, and he could hear the Rangers supporters shouting insults about the Pope and Fenian B*******. Their bigotry and stupidity are no advert for the UK, for Scotland or for football.
If my wife and I go anywhere near Manchester in the near future, we will be careful to speak her native Swedish.
The thread theme is a bit premature for a betting site, but rather than exchange ‘we’re gonna do great’ posts we may as well wait and and see at this point. I think the commentariat is expecting a moderately large Tory win and only a humungous Tory win or a Labour win of any size (or a LibDem win) would have a lasting effect. It won’t prompt a leadership challenge in any case.
Just to pick up the points directed at me on the last thread - Peter Golds thinks it odd that I don’t know who Gedling’s Labour agent is. You underestimate how parochially focused I am in party matters: I don’t know the names of the agents in *any* other seat. I’ll go and help in places with elections, but I don’t spend time asking for people’s names. And Witan thinks I’ve canvassed in Gedling. I haven’t. (That was a really interesting paragraph, wasn’t it? - sorry, but both of them were in effect suggesting I’d been fibbing.)
In any case, I don’t see the top-hat stunt which PG claims this agent was doing as particularly sinful - all parties do that sort of thing, sending people round dressed as chickens to claim they’re cowardly, for instance. Silly, maybe, shocking, nah.
If Labour are to stand a chance, they need a leader who the public can recognise as someone who a) leads b) can fart and chew gum at the same time c) is not an android and d) can persuade alienated voters to look at them afresh. Gordon Brown is not that man.
John Denham could certainly manage c) and d), and I have no reason to assume that he couldn’t manage a) or b). On that basis, he should be a contender. His problem is that he does not obviously have a strong base in the party from which to launch a campaign.
However, I regard Jon Cruddas, who in many ways is more junior than John Denham, as a better bet for a “clean hands” candidate. He has run for deputy leader, so he has experience of how to run such a campaign. He has the same likeability and maybe a bit more spark about him. Like Denham, he is a southerner and speaks to southern England, but has none of the abrasiveness of Ken Livingstone. Most importantly, not holding a Government job at present, he has freedom of manoeuvre at present.
I have often railed against outsiders (wretched Hain, risible Opik) being appointed to run for Welsh constituencies with which they have no connection.
So, exactly why is a Glaswegian representing Birmingham Hall Green?
And has a Brummie ever represented Glasgow? I bet not.
(Those anxious to defend outsiders standing for seats they don’t know may recollect that Nick Palmer [who should be the MP for Zurich Central] was caught out not knowing the location of the Nottingham Universities!)
42 - Fair enough not to comment, but your remarks about the impact of a moderately large Tory win are, I’m afraid, misplaced. The mere fact of the victory will give fresh fuel to the media frenzy, and some of your hotter-headed colleagues will say unfortunate things, ramping it up still further. There will be an inquest into Labour’s conduct of the campaign, come what may, and the odds on Gordon Brown stepping down soon will tighten still further. Labour need to hold the Tories to a narrow win. Being wicked, I might conclude from your post that this is now unlikely.
Denham may be a moderately good choice (and certainly better than his Southampton counterpart Whitehead), but he’s up against a very tough battle to retain his seat.
If anything like the pro-Tory swing that was felt in the council elections could carry forward to the GE (and, note, there are no Soton council elections next year), he’d be out, and I think that’s quite feasible at this rate. The only way he may be able to save it is to get some kind of personal vote going, with more publicity, TV appearances, etc. But doing that is a double-edged sword…
46 I think (and hope) Denham will survive.
He is one of the very, very few Labour MPs I would vote for.
42 - The problem is Nick that C&N is Conservative targe 165, so MP’s in targets 1 through 164 will start to get itchy even with a mild victory. A moderate sized victory would start to get targets 166-200 jumpy and anything bigger would lead to moderate panic.
I’ve seen John Denham a couple of times at various semi-public functions and have always been impressed by him.
43 but using photoshopped pictures of your oppponent and calling them a conman IS pretty shocking don’t you think? or am I just being naiive ??
O/T - Bruce Anderson has an interesting take on the situation
http://tinyurl.com/5kqk9o
43. I think you’re right about the manoevreability (I know it’s not a word) of someone like Cruddas. We saw the difficulties the other 5 Cabinet deputy leadership contenders were in when trying to distance themselves from decisions they were party too. I think we’d get a clear sense that he was interested in standing if he started to address a broader policy platform and not just housing and immigration. If you start hearing him talk about Burma, the environment, transport and crime then throw your money on him because he has the steeliness to win from behind.
41. FergusMac
Jätte roligt Fergus! Det är mycket användbart att ha ett annat språk ibland, och min fru vägrar lär sig gaeliska. Jag skojar bara: jag kan inte gaeliska heller
Mike I think my post about Denham has been caught in the spam trap. In summary, I said I backed him 2 months ago at 25s and I think that’s good value but he’s no certainty to stand. I wouldn’t seriously back him until he formerly declared. I also bragged a little about tipping Purnell at 33s a year ago (he’s now 6/1 with Labdrokes).
Cruddas, Denham?
All irrelevant if the economy does not recover…
Roger Bootle.. who has a very good track record..writes
“When you look at the scale of over-valuation in the housing market (about which I have been banging on for years) and the scale of the coming squeeze on bank lending (about which I have been banging on for the last few months) you have to imagine that house prices have much further to fall.
Unemployment has just started to rise, but bearing in mind the likely collapse of housing turnover, the weakness of house building, the pressure on the retail and financial sectors and the continuing shedding of jobs in manufacturing, surely it has much further to run.
Unemployment is going to rise by about three quarters of a million or more. This will have a serious effect on aggregate consumer spending power, on consumer confidence, on the housing market and on credit quality. In this environment it is going to be a rare thing for a business not to feel any ill-effects from the economy. Only those reliant on more buoyant markets overseas, and benefiting from the lower exchange rate, are likely to be the exceptions.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/19/ccom119.xml
A poster named “Wardog”, from Buckie, is very fond of posting comical political betting formbooks on The Scotsman’s threads. He/she has a new one today, on who is lining up to replace Wendy Alexander as the next leader of the Scottish Labour Party:
Duncan Mcneill 4-1
Ran the wrong way recently and had problems chasing ‘Trumpton’ in the last Meadie Estate hurdles…. needs to focus to make it round this course, he’s not back in the Greenock Pub Crawl this time….
Lordy Lordy 4-1
Ridden by Herr Von Foulkes in the Cummnock Steeple Chase recently to within a whisker, or should that be whiskey of win(e)ing it. Good on the soft going, though has been know to tumble on occasion.
Andy Kerr 4-1
Ex flat racer who didn’t really empress as Finance Minister when out over political hurdles. He has since changed trainers & portfolios and although probably worth another crack needs to learn to question consultants when they are feeding him lousy research and flawed recommendations
Cathy Jamieson 5-1
Second last time out at Holyrood over 8 furlongs which proved too much a test of stamina, back today over preferred 16 furlongs and at home with the going soft….on crime
Margaret Curran 12-1
Odds look a little short but she likes the testing conditions and usually flies round the studio jumps like a Kamikaze with a death wish
Jackie Baille 15-1
Weight is an issue for this young filllee, but hoping for a bold showing, if she could keep her nose down and run the race without stopping to eat the brambles…
Rhona Brankin 50-1
A fair fillie with a right pair of gnashers, she’s been none to nibble her jockey’s when the going get’s tough. Outside chance after coming last in the EU Fishing Quota Derby..
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Gerry-Hassan-For-Labour-life.4095786.jp
George Foulkes MSP (ex MP) at 4-1 !!!!! Wardog really has got to be kidding about that eventuality!! Surely?
Whilst I do appreciate Nick Palmer posting here, it does at times highlight how “parochially focused” he indeed is, and not only on party matters. This is unfortunate as I am sure he is more worldly wide tham many of his fellow MPs.
The purpose of this posting is not to denigtrate him personally but to express the view that far too many of the MPs have a very limited outlook on life brought about by having little experience in making their way in the real world. Many of the mistakes made by Government would be avoided if Ministers, for example, had to struggle to find the cash for paying their employees’ wages at the end of the week. Unfortunately, even some of those who have had such experience do forget it once they become Ministers.
42. Nick, did anyone bring up the class hatred campaign you are running in C & N on the doorstep at all?
‘Mr Brown is thought to have personally authorised the use of class as a campaign issue despite the reservations of a number of senior ministers and advisers.’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3958778.ece
Oh dear.
Odd that you should bring up Denham. I watched an interview of his yesterday and was quite impressed with his straightforward and candid style. Even his smiles were genuine and in the right places. Yep I too reckon he may have what it takes.
46. If Denham became leader he should be OK. Partly the leader’s personal boost, partly the boost he would give his party. Either way, if he lost his seat, Labour would have gone down to defeat at the election (and gone down heavily), so the nightmare scenario of Labour winning while the leader loses his seat doesn’t come into play.
I agree with Mike and others that Denham might make a decent leader. He does - as SSI notes at [11] - have a record of brave and right decision-making on big issues. That’s a big part of the job of a leader, and one that Gordon is not performing well at. The other aspect is the ability to lead and inspire. The jury’s more obviously out there, not least because we’ve seen very little of him, but would he really be worse than any of the alternatives?
His biggest problem is the ‘how’ question. If Gordon doesn’t throw in the towel, then I don’t see the route for Denham to become leader. I simply don’t believe that the Labour Party has it in them to remove GB against his will. For the difficulty it would create, they may well be right not to - the despatch will be less clinical than the removal of Thatcher in 1990, which took just a couple of weeks; Labour’s procedure’s would paralyse the government for months and the recriminations afterwards whatever the result could make the next election unwinnable anyway.
An associated problem is timescale if Gordon does jack it in. It will take between six and eight weeks to elect a new Leader. There aren’t many windows of opportunity to do that if you’re in government, and the Summer is the best one. If Brown stays as leader through to the recess, I can’t see him leaving before the Euro-elections next June. That would not give any new leader - who would probably be announced at Labour’s September conference - much time to make an impact. He could go straight to the country, in the way that Brown didn’t, but the Tories and Lib Dems would be geared up for an election anyway, and he would effectively be asking the country to back Labour ‘on trust’, a quality the electorate may not see in that party.
Another issue may be age. If the leadership election isn’t until Labour’s gone into opposition, he’s likely to be into his sixties by the time he gets to contest an election. That may count against him, with the ‘next generation’ getting their go.
60. David, who do you find most impressive of the next generation challengers? Purnell?
55…ah…The Scotsman…possibly the only site where writing something moderate, considered and sensible marks you out as a troll…
52. Hej Stuart. Har du bott i Sverige? Ditt svenska är ganska bra!
Det är mycket intressant att du beffiner dig på högerkanten, precis som jag, och att vi både gilla oberoende för vårt land.
Lycka till!
More housing gloom….
Rics: house sales hit ’slowest rate since 1974′
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/198…ce-1974%27.html
1 in 10 will need social housing by 2010
http://uk.reuters.com/article/personalFina…A92626220080519
61. I’ve not seen that much of Purnell, but he does seem the best of a less than inspiring bunch. I’d write Balls, Ed Miliband and Alexander out of it altogether. David Miliband could get the job, but I’ve not seen anything to suggest he understands the problem.
One big factor in Denham’s favour is that he was in parliament before 1997, and won in 1992. He understands opposition; he has seen a popular Conservative Party before and at the least might have an idea as to how to deal with it. What a lot of the ‘next generation’ lack is the experience of that. They came together in New Labour and have always been the top-dogs. Their party’s political strategy has always been based on the assumption that they were more popular with floating voters than the Conservatives - an assumption no longer necessarily true. The next leader will have to deal with that problem.
For the Conservatives, Hague tried a centre-ground strategy and found it unworkable - but that was after an election defeat on the scale of which Labour is unlikely to face. Even so, I wonder whether any of the younger ministers - most of whom have the problem of being ministers first and politicians second - have the skills needed to get to grips with reengaging the core Labour vote.
re 53. Henry G - it’s not even in the spam trap. It must have had some combinations of words/numbers/symbols which are commonly used by spammers. Sorry.
66. In reply to HenryG at [62], which was [61] when I started writing it!
65. sorry, try these links..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1983537/Economy-will-suffer-as-house-sales-hit-%27slowest-rate-since-1974%27.html
http://uk.reuters.com/article/personalFinanceNews/idUKNOA92626220080519
67. Ok, thanks Mike!
IF Clegg has agreed to support the Tories in a hung parliament. Whats the point of waverers voting Lib Dem, they might as well vote Conservative…
Southampton Itchen Results in 2008:
CON 48.79%
LAB 29.17%
LIB 15.05%
They took all wards in the seat except one, where they were 107 votes behind Labour at 1250.
They achieved a 7.5% swing to them from Labour and a 7.4% swing from the Lib Dems (Based on 2007 local elections).
They polled 746 under their general election popular vote despite turnout being almost half that of the general election.
It’s certainly not going to be a Tory walkover, but I think Denham is going to have a real fight on his hands. The fact that a local councillor is the parliamentary candidate this time around will also resonate with the electorate.
I think the question of re-election does need to be set aside if Labour want to maintain a ‘decent loss’ and not a rout in the upcoming General Election. They need someone who can hold them together, lay down some core policies and feel safe (much like Major). The fact that Dehnham has avoided the mainstream issues (and can easily use his Iraq voe as a ‘I listen’ bullet point in interviews) could be enough to stabilise the supporters and party. If he goes down in Southampton, then you can look at getting a newer younger model to rebuild the party (which will probably be Purnell if he can hold on to his sear).
Should be no surprise that Gordon hates public school toffs - he’s spent the last 10 years fighting against one who was his neighbour trying to get him the sack.
Mike, didn’t you deny that Denham was the other candidate, apart from Jowell, that you were thinking of? If so, is the identity of the second candidate still a mystery?
I see Ladbrokes have now moved the Denham price to 8/1.
71. Good point. I don’t think Chris Huhne would have fallen into this trap.
re 75…..ahead of Ed Balls!!!!
32.”John Denham - a really good politician. He is a litmus test for me, I expect to agree with him, and think again if I do disagree with him.
Sadly too thoughtful/cerebral and not enough of a political infighter.
In a fairer less cynical world, he would be a good leader.”
Got to say that I agree entirely with this comment.
I have always rated Denham as a Labour politician, he oozes likeability when in the media spot light in much the same way both Johnson and Cruddas do. But Cruddas does appear to be the most ambitious, and seems to have that edge as a media performer. I just get the feeling that neither Johnson or Denham want the top job enough, in fact IIRC they have both verbally ruled themselves out of running for PM at any date in the future?
re 74. I think I might have done in the discussion. My apologies.
One of the great pressures running the site now its so busy is finding at least two and maybe three topics a day for discussion. I don’t like throwing away ideas that might be useful for a thread on their own.
79. OK fair enough.
63.”55…ah…The Scotsman…possibly the only site where writing something moderate, considered and sensible marks you out as a troll…”
Ah, Scotland’s answer to the Telegraph thread.
61 - I’m sure your analysis is correct (quelle surprise) and Nick Palmer’s too, in that Gordon Brown will lead Labour into the next election.
Although regularly implied, I don’t think anyone has explicitly stated that Labour has always moved sharply leftwards following election defeat, and there is every reason to suggest, bearing in mind the 10p fiasco, that that move will be even sharper this time (albeit we are not talking about the ultra-leftism of the early 1980s).
Moreover, the respective strengths of the trades unions versus the PLP will also move strongly to the former.
If we add these factors together, my (non) money would be on Jon Cruddas, rather than any of the what will have been seriously discredited ex Cabinet Ministers (assuming he too holds his seat).
72. what about Southampton test that has a majotity of only 7000.
(I say only 7,000)
Thank-You.
82 - Oops…should have said defeat immediately after being in govt.
IMO Denham would be a potentially strong contender. Cruddas would be more risky and his lack of government experience plus the potential for the Tories to label him a throwback to the leftwing past would count against him. I think Miliband sometimes comes over as geeky, but obviously he would be a contender.
Was at an informal meeting of local party members yesterday - all agreed that Brown had to go. If C&N is as bad as the polls suggest I think he’ll be gone sooner rather than later - next weekend perhaps.
78. I know that Alan Johnson ruled himself out on Desert Island Discs last year by saying that he has realised that he would not be up to the job. At the weekend Denham said that he has never considered standing for Labour leadership. Still has a little wiggle room - ‘I have never considered standing, but I am overwhelmed by the comments on Politicalbetting.com and as such I declare my candidacy today’!
81 - Indeed Chris! And just as (I suspect) the same Telegraph readers migrate to ConHome when it feature Scottish issues, so the Scotsman readers migrate equally en masse to the Herald when the mood takes them.
Not sure whether this news is particularly positive for the nationalist cause though!
66. If people are bigging up a wooden nonentity like Purnell then Labour really are in deep, deep trouble.
The FT has a puff piece for ’slug’ Balls today, as well. The stench of decay is becoming overpowering.
I am a big Denham fan, and like Mike have been “cheerleading” for him for some time. I thought he should have challenged Gordon last year and although he would have lost, he would have ended up with something a bit more heayvweight than No 2 at education answering to Blinky.
I think his two great advantages as a successor to Blair would have been (1) that his election would have drawn a decisive line under the Iraq debacle, and (2) that he operates in a much lower key - something the public was yearning for at the time.
After a year of Brown, however, the dynamics have changed. People who despaired of Blair’s showmanship and wanted the relatively “unspun” Brown now long for a bit of “charisma.” As Marcus Wood (22) correctly points out, this isn’t Denham’s forte.
The other big disadvantage with Denham is that in age terms he is part of the Blair-Brown generation. If Labour is to give at least the appearance of looking to the future, it either needs to skip a full generation to the likes of D. Miliband or at least half a generation to someone experienced-but-still-vaguely-young-looking such as Alan Milburn.
Looking at the main candidates Johnson and Cruddas are both core vote candidates. Considering Labour’s core vote is sliding so very risky to go with either (though Cruddas is my own favourite).
Denham come into the Straw mold- and will be more likely to hold onto swingers. Neither though are inspirational.
I was pleased to see that Balls is pretty much despised by the Labour base, so not a contender.
Which leaves Miliband and Purnell- very likely that one will support the other and present as a ticket.
I think we will see the leadership election of the century if Brown goes. A betting man’s feast. A pundit’s wet dream. A media frenzy- the kind of political event that only comes around once a preston guild. A genuinely competitive (unknown outcome) contest for the biggest prize in British politics- the 2nd biggest job in world politics. As electrifying as the Thatcher decapitation. The hits on pbCOM will reach astonomical levels.
Come on Gordon- do the right thing and give us all our fun.
I hope that we’ve got questions lined up for Gordon when he tries to get his head round this new-fangled technology. Mine was “why would it be inflationary to give a few million public service staff a pay rise equal to inflation, but NOT inflationary to give 22 million taxpayers a pay cut?”
One problem for Denham - who might be the sacrificial lamb in a safe seat after the election? Mr or Mrs Balls perhaps?
83.
Southampton Test 2008
CON 43.25%
LAB 28.32%
LIB 19.32%
Took all wards except one (where I was the candidate) which I lost by 212 votes - Had a Labour majority of 647 the year before!
Swings of 7.4% from Labour and Lib Dems respectively based on 2007 results.
1503 votes under general election result.
Again Jeremy is a local councillor and that seems to go down on the doorstep. Not a shoo-in but Labour will be facing a determined Tory machine.
I watched Denham being interviewed yesterday, he was very impressive. I’m not too convinced about the, ‘charisma’ thing, perhaps a touch of the, ‘Baldwinesque’ might go down well with the voters.
‘Charisma!’ remind me, how many GE’s did Howard win in OZ?
90 Don’t forget Harman. Stands a very good chance.
95 please be right. Labour led by Harman would be in opposition for 20 years.
95. Ha ha
95 - Excellent. We need more toff-ettes at the top.
re 20 we might bang on about UNS but as Rod C would reassure us the concept is good but doesn’t mean that every seat would swing the same way and by the same amount. it’s perfectly possible that Labour could lose 100-120 seats and that Southampton Itchen would be one of them, particulary for the local reasons which have led to a demoralised party.
I have just reviewed the Denham interview on election night and my reaction is exactly as it was on the night. I was unimpressed then and equally now. It was typical to me of a third rate politician- never answer the question, ignore or twist the facts, repeat the same point about “listening”. They have had 10 years to listen.He is a man of no experience and no presence. Major held all three great offices of state before becoming PM - and failed.What chance has Denham got?
90 - I just can’t see Gordon quitting, voluntarily. And the anger in the broader Labour party notwithstanding, I don’t think 70+ Labour MPs/the Cabinet will find the balls to knife him.
Denham’s not a bad answer to the question right now, but I think the question won’t be asked until after Labour are defeated at the next GE. Given how he’s positioned, I still think D Miliband is the best bet to be the next Labour leader, but not until 2010. I also think he’ll probably never win a GE, but that’s a different point…
94: ‘Charisma!’ remind me, how many GE’s did Howard win in OZ?’
Against Paul Keating, Kim Beazley, and Mark Latham, Howard didn’t need it, then along came KRudd.
90- Tyson
“contest for the biggest prize in British politics- the 2nd biggest job in world politics”
British PM is a very important job but it’s certainly not the 2nd biggest job in world politics. Hu Jintao and Putin for example hold much more influence than any British PM and Merkel is at least its equal.
90 Yes I agree - it will be a very open contest with no obvious front runner and the potential for someone quite unexpected winning. If it is handled properly it could give Labour a massive electoral boost - dominate the media until well into July. Of course there is also the potential for it to become divisive, but I think Labour realises that it needs to start digging itself out of the hole we are in and a divisive contest would not do that.
Would anyone want GBs job at the moment ? Why not wait until 2010 and start with a clean sheet.
Denham has traded on his resignation over Iraq for a long time but does he have any other strings to his bow? Alright he presents publicly far better than does Brown, but who doesn’t? In recent interviews, when put on the spot, he comes across as just another irritating government spin machine ready to recite the usual lies and tractor-production figures to avoid the questioning.
He has no real power base within the party and amongst Labour MP’s and it appears that he is another one with two wildly contrasting faces, one for public consumption and one for behind the scenes. A street angel/home devil as the old Irish saying would describe him.
I see Labour having two choices when/if Brown goes before the next general election: a caretaker figure (probably Straw) or a “fresh start” (most likely to be David Miliband)
A Labour hammering on Thursday would throw the cat among the pigeons for sure.
Going off thread- Nick Palmer has alluded to this, but I think the terrifying prospect for Labour is the loss of core support- some which will not vote, but there is a significant enough mass that will switch to the Tories. They do not do LD’s or Greens. A few may be drawn to the BNP.
The Tories may well find themselves amassing a coalition akin to Thatcher that could entrench them back as the party of government. The loss of Scotland to devolution will bring back a long period of Tory rule.
A new Labour leader needs to think of bringing in some kind of PR- not to save his bacon which is already cooked, but to avert the prospect of 20 years of continued Tory government.
106: you get your place in history, a chance to turn things around, and power always attracts those who think they are more able than they are.
108: To stop 20 years of Tory government you don’t need to change the voting system you just to stop the next election being a rout for Labour. A quick(ish) election with a new caretaker leader would do that.
87.”Not sure whether this news is particularly positive for the nationalist cause though!”
Not convinced that Alex Salmond will be keen to trumpet that endorsement!
I think people are looking at issue of the potential challenger’s seat being a bit marginal the wrong way around.
One of the big problems in the Gordon-removal scenario is that there’s not enough incentive for someone promising to step in and challenge him (in whatever unspecified way they’re supposed to be able to do this), since they’d be likely to lead the party to defeat in any case. The only people who will want to do this will be people who are likely to lose their seat otherwise anyhow.
Likewise, ambitious rivals or their backers aren’t going to want someone who’s going to lose them the election and then stay on. They’ll want someone who can either win the election or lose it and get out of the way. What better than someone in a marginal seat? This is particularly important here because it’s got to be easier (I’m guessing) to remove Gordon in an IDS-style consensual stitch-up way than in an open contest. If a sizeable faction tell Gordon they want him to carry on, he’s going to be even more impossible to shift.
101
Major held all three great offices of state before becoming PM - and failed.What chance has Denham got?
So apart from, ‘Bag Carrier for Lamont’ how many government jobs has Cameron had?
Blair won big in ‘97 not a single days government experience!!
108. Haha yes be afraid, be very afraid. It’s going to be 1979-1997 all over again I’m afraid.
Back on thread, Denham looks like he might be a decent leader for a post-election Labour that needs several years to regroup. But I can’t see him making much impact in the current situation.
Also - does Clegg’s apparent peace feeler toward the Tories reflect expectations of a poor result on Thursday?
104 - I agree it isn’t the second most important job in world politics, but being British PM is probably a bigger job than being German Chancellor. Germany is much more decentralised, reducing domestic power, and is less influential in world affairs for military reasons (and Security Council). It is economically more important but not by a huge margin, and somewhat more important in Europe. French President is a closer comparison.
105 nickc, Labour may realise it has to start “digging itself out of the hole it’s in” but in reality I’d say a divisive contest to replace Brown would be unavoidable and I can only see the comrades fighting each other like ferrets in a sack. Still, it couldn’t be any worse than the constant weekly shambles you’re in under the increasingly desperate and pathetic Brown
112 - That isn’t correct, Major was Foreign secretarty from July-October 1989 and Chancellor from October 1989-November 1990. He was never Home Secretary.
DC currently slaying Labours spending now on SKY. Setting out the Tory view on tax
104- Chris- I think Blair and Thatcher both showed how important you can make the British PM’s job if you play it well on the international stage.
3rd rate British leaders, the likes of Brown and Major devalue the country’s prestige. Merkel is the de facto leader of West Europe at the minute showing the importance of leadership.
You are right though the leaders of Russia and China have much more influence on world events than our own leader.
112.”So apart from, ‘Bag Carrier for Lamont’ how many government jobs has Cameron had?”
Leading the main opposition to a GE victory has always looked good on a politicians CV.
O/T Although I stand by what I wrote the other day about it not being a certain or automatic win for either candidate, Oregon is starting to look like a healthy Obama win, if you look at the photo on the Drudge Report - if he wins, I think he should the pledged delegate majority mark.
97-99 Just mention Harman in the context of a betting site. She has the connections to win the leadership, has just won a leadership election, would push the woman leader/PM thing for all it’s worth and is in an ideal cabinet position to win the top job. So punters should not forget her.
Whether or not she is the right person for the job is another question altogether. Any other candidate would have to be pretty spectacular to overcome her experience of running campaigns. Could John Denham court the membership internally or use the media to connect directly? These are the questions that need to be answered.
104 - When are you moving to the US? We need all eyes and ears there for the Big One in November!
114. Surely there is no job in the world where the ego of the various incumbents matches so poorly with their actual importance as French President.
The only place France has any influence today is in its ragbag of impoverished tinpot ex-colonies in Africa. Its military is a joke, apparently well-equiped but combat-shy - no change from 1940, it seems.
Its political leaders only seem interested in shovelling money into their own pockets and those of inefficient farmers - plus selling stacks of weapons to the enemies of the West, of course.
Not much ‘gloire’ in evidence at all.
121 - Not to mention the finances thereof.
61,82
I am not so convinced Brown will lead Labour into next GE. His
personality is that he never wishes to risk losing big time. If the Tories stay convincingly ahead in the polls for say the next 18 months, the economy is weak and Brown recognises that he cannot reasononably attempt to buy votes with more unfunded tax cuts then fhe might step down for “family” reasons.
3.
“Labour have been pushing… ‘tory toffs’ ”
Can’t they pedal their own push-bikes with the Daimler running behind?
122- I will be base in Washington, DC, starting from mid-July.
So I will be there for the most interesting phase (conventions and the general election campaign).
Correction 61,83
I am not so convinced Brown will lead Labour into next GE. His
personality is that he never wishes to risk losing big time. If the Tories stay convincingly ahead in the polls for say the next 18 months, the economy is weak and Brown recognises that he cannot reasononably attempt to buy votes with more unfunded tax cuts then fhe might step down for “family” reasons.
by SLAM May 19th, 2008 at 10:24 am
125. Interesting take. If Brown was nervous last October about calling an election, imagine how he’s feeling now staring at the iceberg.
Sam Coates over at the Times Redbox blog has another round up of the goings on at the C&N by election campaigns.
Crewe by-election snapshot 2 - ugly and uglier
129. Indeed, it’s a surprise he hasn’t ‘done a Castlereagh’ already…
129. Indeed, it’s a surprise he hasn’t ‘done a Castlereagh’ already….
121-Jonathan- you are having a laugh, surely?
HH will be entirely neutral. Her job is not at risk- she is happy I think as Deputy, and will wait to see who the next leader is without rocking the boat.
104/114: Since the UK is pretty much a client state of the US under either party, realistically there’s very little worldwide that depends