C&N: Which supporters are most motivated to vote?
May 20th, 2008
Could the pollsters be understating the Tory margin?
The Independent’s pollster, ComRes, have made available overnight the full data from their Crewe & Nantwich poll which is in this morning’s paper and is showing a Conservative lead of 13%.
Reproduced above is a table showing responses on the turnout question the certainty of voting rated on a scale of 1 to 10 from those interviewed. The picture is the same as we have seen in many other polls - Tory supporters are much more likely to go to the stations polling and vote than those of other parties.
However you juggle the figures from both this survey and the ones on Crewe and Nantwich from ICM and it is hard to come to any other conclusion than that David Cameron is going to chalk up his party’s first by election gain in more than a quarter of a century.
The big question for those speculating about whether Brown can survive is the scale of the Tory victory. My reading of the detailed data from all three C&N polls is that the margin of victory might even be higher than the ComRes 13%
A figure not published from the ICM poll for the News of the World is that before the pollster’s “spiral of silence adjuster” was applied the Conservative candidate had a lead of 15%. This was reduced in accordance with standard practice to take into account the views of those who said they voted at the last general election but did not know or refused to answer the C&N question.
The Crewe & Nantwich betting, of course, has tightened even further following this and today’s national general election poll from ICM. The current, 0300, price on the Tories on Betfair is 0.08/1. So a £100 bet winning bet would produce a return of just £8. That might be better than you get with Northern Rock but it’s is in near certainty territory.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
No
Malcolm
What would an eg 13% lead probably equate to in hundreds/thousands of votes?
2. A 13% lead would equate to 5650 votes if the turnout was 60% as in 2005.
CONTROL & COMMUNICATION in the UK
“A massive government database holding details of every phone call, e-mail and time spent on the internet by the public is being planned as part of the fight against crime and terrorism. Internet service providers (ISPs) and telecoms companies would hand over the records to the Home Office under plans put forward by officials.”
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/telecoms/article3965033.ece
Sweet!
4 Philippe
You know what worries me most about my country?
Lots of British people will be in favour of this fascist nonsense!!
Malcolm
More thoughts on the Toff thing. Apart from it not working *now* there’s a bit more to it imo.
Class prejudice does matter politically and Timpson is a bit chinless looking but…
His money comes from a firm that does something useful and provides a few jobs…
Plus his family have fostered a lot of kids.
That’s actually the sort of Toff a lot of Labour voters either don’t mind or actually quite like.
Not the same as the Gordon Gecko type Tory caricature from Thatch’s time. More old fashioned sort of Toff.
Also, thinking about it more, for native Londoners it’s actually pretty sweet revenge on Ken to help get him beat by someone like Boris. Rubs salt into the wounds a bit.
Made me think on Blair and what he did. One Nation Tory is the default position in England imo. Thatcherism swerved away from that to kill off nationalisation. The middle ground supported it because there was a crisis. Thatcherism’s attitude to the stragglers left behind in a survival of the fittest world was never going to be accepted long-term. It was the attitude to the stragglers that got them the nasty tag not the practical stuff imo.
So looking back what Blair did imo was conjure up a Labour version of One Nation Tory. It was only on the surface obviously as the party hadn’t really changed underneath but the mask was One Nation Tory in Labour guise.
Brownites.
I don’t think Brown has a following in the personal loyalty sense. A lot of Labour activists didn’t like Blair and thought/think Brown is more on their wavelength so a lot of them support him philosophically. But now it’s obvious he’s no good at the job I don’t think they’ll rally round him. That’s at an activist level though. MP’s may be different but I doubt it.
I had a dream in which all the Labour Party activists and campaigners travelling to Crewe were unable to get there because their trains kept on going straight through the station without stopping. The trains in my dream must have been segregated according to party, because the Conservatives and Lib Dems didn’t have the same problem.
I think a lot of the anti-tory sentiment in Scotland / Wales is due to a soft anti-English domination sentiment as the Tories are seen as the most English party. So I think devolution might be very good for the Tories as long as the Scottish and Welsh branches stress the Scottish and Welsh bit as devolution takes a bit of the sting out of Westminster domination.
I think that could be as or more important than a decline in the anti-Thatch sentiment. I don’t think that sentiment in the coal / steel areas will die out before everyone 40+ in those areas has gone. Then again McBean killed off that big Labour advantage in those areas when he had Thatch to number 10. I did wonder why she was smiling so evilly.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised now if the Tories got back to where they were before in Scotland and Wales with the other parties snagging a lot more of the old Labour seats.
What would be the result of an election if one of the two main parties did loads of campaigning and leaflets, and the other didn’t bother with any?
Someone in a letters page somewhere recently suggested that it should be illegal for political parties to have any income or donations. The theory was that the parties should stand and be judged on their own record, without any spin or propaganda. Never mind that the voters would be uninformed, but what would be the result / turnout of an election (or a by-election) in which none of the parties or candidates did any campaigning at all?
The toff thing confirms what was seen in the London mayoral election. It doesn’t work.
It may be that Labour strategists are too influenced by America. By and large, we vote for parties rather than individuals.
The corollary of that should give the PM’s critics pause. Labour, not Brown, is the immediate problem.
4. Liberal Fascism — all for your own good, Big Brother with a smiley face.
I predict
Con 13,400
Lab 8,900
LD 5,005
Green 3,400
UKIP 2,100
OMRLP 1,300
ED 800
Ind 500
CToDaP 300
Gemma 200
MrJones @ 9 re Thatcher at Number Ten.
One in a series of daft stunts that cost Brown and Labour their poll leads. Whoever voted Labour because of an inordinate fondness for Mrs Thatcher?
I believe Brown when he said the election was not called off owing to the opinion polls. More likely there never would have been an election since Brown had nothing to gain. Rather, the election talk was simply a ruse to discomfort the Tories.
And like all the other stunts similarly aimed (flying to Iraq, Mrs T, and of course the 10p tax “abolition”) it misfired spectacularly.
But he told the truth. Brown may be an idiot but he is not a liar.
I predict
Con 12,700
Lab 2,300
LD 1,900
Green 1,700
UKIP 1,300
OMRLP 1,100
ED 700
Ind 500
CToDaP 300
Gemma 200
13. misprint mucked up an otherwise brilliant subtle joke
Lib Dem 5,500
11. I think the Toff thing would have worked if the candidates had been a property developer or a hedge fund manager.
14. Have to agree to disagree on that. I think it was absolutely their private polling that stopped the election, especially in Scotland. I also think given the massive amount of “trying to look tough on immigration” spin since the election that wasn’t that they knew one leg of their core vote was crumbling and they’ve been desperately trying to shore it up ever since.
The weather forecast for Thursday looks pleasant enough - nice enough to entice out all those wh0 want to give Gordon a good kicking:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?id=1589
And more detail from the 3 day forecast:
Thursday: sunny intervals, Max Temp: 18°C (64°F), Min Temp: 10°C (50°F)
Max Temp: 18°C (64°F), Min Temp: 10°C (50°F), Wind Direction: SE, Wind Speed: 12mph, Visibility: very good, Pressure: 1016mb, Humidity: 57%, UV risk: moderate, Pollution: low, Sunrise: 04:58BST, Sunset: 21:11BST
So I suspect turnout will be quite strong. 60% at the 2005 GE, so over 50% at least; quite possibly GE levels (former Labour voters sitting on hands matched by normally dispirited “what’s the point in voting against Gwyneth?” Tories who will come out to play on Thursday).
(From your correspondent who advised the first Test from Lords would be a weather-effected draw - so to forget the 3-0 series win bet!)
My latest Crewe visit, confirms my assessment two weeks ago of a landslide.
Still going for 52%, 33%, 11%, but would not be suprised if it was more than that, 55, 31, 10.
In my view we are now in a really new political era and I do not think a lot of Labour and Liberal Democrat activists realise it yet. The Liberal Democrats in particular are going to have to sit down and re think their strategic approach, because they are now the party facing the squeeze after years of being the squeezer.
13.15.16. John, are we playing “spot the by-election” again?
19. I never cease to be amazed at posters forecasting the medium / long term based upon a single event. By elections are a lottery in terms of where they occur and if the next two or three are in Lab / LD marginals the outcome would very likely reflect that dynamic. The Tories have a clear bounce at the moment, but the underlying message from Crewe ( been a couple of times in the last fortnight) is that voters are anti Labour not pro any party in particular. With a GE in 2010 anything could happen in the interim.
20. No - you’ll get a clue by dividing everything by 100
21. In Littleborough & Saddleworth (1995) the main swing was from Con to Lab, even though Lab started in 3rd place. If a by-election happened in a Lab/LD seat then the real test would be if there was a big swing to put Conservative in 2nd place above Labour.
In c.1989 there was a speculative TV documentary/drama which imagined a Conservative government continuing for 20 years, with Thatcher retiring as PM and MP in 2000, and with Jeffrey Archer as the Conservative candidate losing the Finchley by-election to the Green Party. (I can’t remember what the main point of the programme was).
Maybe C&N will be a tie between Green and UKIP, with Con/LD/Lab in joint 3rd/4th/5th place.
21 - ah, clutching at straws is still in vogue.
16 A bit early in the morning to expect the punters to a spot Fibonnaci series, innit?
….or are you looking at electing a “prime” minister?
If the Conservatives get over 50%, in Crewe of all places, Gords done for!
28 - I don’t know about that.
Geoff - keeping things in perspective evidently is not.
9. I can not speak for Scotland, but this is certainly the case in Wales where the Conservatives advertised themselves very clearly in the local elections as Welsh Conservatives - first time they have taken this approach, and it certainly helped.
A few years ago when they tried promoting themselves as the Conservative & Unionist party they were wiped out!
26
I’d never spot a fibonnaci series, but I might spot a “loony” (no offence intended)
The question is how many of the Labour voters in the polls are of the Polly “peg on the nose” variety. For these voters they will vote, however reluctantly, to get a Labour MP over a Conservative MP. However, once victory seems remote, they may just not bother. This is also a potential massive problem for Labour at the next election (in a scenario where they are looking to limit the Conservative victory).
BTW, Mike loves to criticise newspapers for their crass analysis of polls, but i don’t think he’ll see better than this in today’s Independent!
“Although by-elections are seen as one-off events, if the ComRes share of the vote figures were repeated at a general election, the Tories would win an overall majority of 112.”
WTF??? They’ve plugged Con 48 Lab 33 LD 12 into electoral calculus and produced a result!!!
Does anyone vet articles before they go to print any more? 
Interesting pice on Three line whip. One wonders if they both might defect???
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/politics/threelinewhip/may/frankfieldleavespolitics.htm#comments
22. 13. 15. OK, fibonacci series and prime numbers, you sad man.
19. dave (s) - “In my view we are now in a really new political era and I do not think a lot of Labour and Liberal Democrat activists realise it yet.”
You have hit the nail on the head there Dave! My worry is what are Brown and Labour going to do when the full, gargantuan scale of their collapse becomes crystal clear for all to see? It seems likely that things will get very, very, very nasty indeed, based upon my knowledge of Brown and the Scottish Labour Party. If Brown is going to go down (and he is), he is going to take the entire edifice down with him.
The Lib Dems will simply get squeezed and squeezed til nobody pays them the slightest bit of attention.
34 - Surely if they were going to defect, which they obviously aren’t, they wouldn’t be campaigning in C&N. Unless you think they’re campaigning for the Conservatives?
Fibonacci, if I’m not mistaken
37 they might be taking a look at whats going on on the ground outside the Westminster bubble? I’m not saying they would , but its a plausible scenario. Its interesting they travelled together too. It just adds to the picture of them being at least semi detached from Labour.
39 - If they were going to leave Labour they would have done so by now.
why by now?
I’ve heard a couple of rumours that Alan Milburn will challenge for the Labour leadership this weekend. Channel 4 News also had a little piece on how Byers and Milburn were campaigning in Crewe, no doubt providing themselves with an electoral alibi. No prices on Milburn at the moment (ladbrokes have suspended betting on him at 33/1) but worth backing in double figures when others publish their prices later on this morning.
They seemed very close on the labour benches during the debate a couple of weeks ago - no other member dared to sit near them.
31. penddu - “… the Conservatives advertised themselves very clearly in the local elections as Welsh Conservatives - first time they have taken this approach, and it certainly helped.”
Yes. I think that it is clear that the Scottish Tories are beginning to learn that lesson too. They have got to realise that they are there to represent the people of Scotland. Nothing less will do.
A fully autonomous Scottish Party again (what to call it?) would help greatly. Cameron seems sympathetic to more autonomy for the Scottish Tories, but that is very easy to say in opposition. It is when the Scottish and English parties clash when in government in London that it becomes hard for Cameron to accept Scottish distinctiveness.
40 - In my experience defections are rarely trailed in advance.
O/T - This is an interesting article in the guardian, I just love how they find a number of voters and none of them are going to vote Conservative.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/20/crewebyelection08.localgovernment
Have the spread betting markets reacted to the latest changes in the polls (esp. C+N) over the last couple of weeks?
From what I’ve been reading, it sounds like a better wat to bet on this by-election!
42. I just can’t see it I am afraid.
I have learned never to rule anything out in politics but I don’t believe that the Labour Party has the fight left in it to oust Brown this side of an election.
Also, over the years Brown has done a pretty good job of discrediting anyone who might represent a serious threat. The people who might mount a challenge (mostly ex Blairites) are already damaged goods and can only do worse for Labours election prospects.
“Former First Minister Henry McLeish [Labour] has launched a devastating critique of Wendy Alexander’s leadership of Labour in Scotland…
“At the heart of Labour’s dilemma is the failure to embrace a coherent, modern, and post-devolution policy, philosophy and strategy for the constitutional future of Scotland. Without this, recent events [ie. the WendyRendum] could happen again. There is currently no road map, no signposting and consequently, policy can be made on the hoof and tactics which look attractive at a moment in time can quickly unravel.”
… “Credibility, confidence and consistency matter in politics,”…
He also gives warning that the SNP question inviting Scots to endorse the opening of independence negotiations could provide a “win-win” scenario for the SNP and “not a set of circumstances the unionist parties, especially Labour, want to find themselves in.”
A better debate is needed, claims Mr McLeish, who adds: “Labour can and should lead the debate in Scotland but it has to have a policy and a strategy. It has a mountain to climb. You could be forgiven for thinking that Labour’s only active policy is to be against independence.”"
Indeed! We all know what Scottish Labour is against, but what exactly is it for? Creaming cash off English taxpayers apparently…
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2282386.0.McLeish_attacks_Alexanders_lack_of_road_map_for_Labour.php
http://www.holyrood.com/content/view/2492/10552/
PolyToynbee in today’s Guardian Starts:
“It would be a miracle if Labour won the Crewe byelection this week, and miracles will be hard to come by when today’s ICM poll shows Labour dropped by some 7% in the course of a month……”
And ends:
“I hope I’ll have to eat my hat with a side order of humble pie if Labour wins. But I fear the morning after Crewe, the question will be: how does Labour get stampeding voters to stop and think rationally about the long-term difference between a Labour and a Conservative future? It would help if Labour made that difference crystal clear.”
http://tinyurl.com/6q55xe
… further to 19. dave (s) - “In my view we are now in a really new political era and I do not think a lot of Labour and Liberal Democrat activists realise it yet.”
In the opinion of The Scotsman’s political correspondent David Maddox, it is not just the activists, but also the MPs, who fail to realise what is going on:
‘Scots Labour MPs blind to prospect of extinction’
- “The Westminster branch of Scottish Labour seems impervious to the real and present danger the SNP poses”
… and long may that continue!! They are like bunnies caught in the headlights. Or rather: like chubby, squealing piglets with their noses deep in the trough as the headlights of the speeding SUV approach
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Scots-Labour-MPs-blind-to.4099254.jp
10.
“What would be the result of an election if one of the two main parties did loads of campaigning and leaflets, and the other didn’t bother with any?”
I gather that’s what happened in a seat in the North West on May 1st. It was the Tory parliamentary candidate’s seat and she did not win. I wonder if mr Ashcroft will be giving her any more money?
42.
“Alan Milburn will challenge for the Labour leadership this weekend”
and we thought that NOTHING could make Gordon Brown seem good.
“how does Labour get stampeding voters to stop and think rationally” Ah, it’s those stupid voters again, according to Polly.
The Government has lost the confidence of the people. Time to elect a new people.
In favour of Mike’s hypothesis is that the raw Tory lead in the ComRes poll is actually 50-31 - the headline figure is after adjusting for the spiral of silence etc. It’s possible that the start of the campaign with the small Tory lead reflected a lot of lifelong Labour voters saying ‘Labour’ out of habit, but during the campaign some of them were nudged into thinking they’d try someone else. I don’t think it’ll be that huge myself, but we’ll see soon.
To respond to the late posts at the end of the last thread on today’s abortion amendments. Paul M: the current law doesn’t define its phrase of ’severe handicap’, and in practice it’s been used to allow abortion on grounds like club foot, which I think most people would feel is probably hard to justify when the abortion is as late at say 39 weeks: at that point we have to all intents and purposes a fully-developed baby with a fairly minor disability which simply hasn’t been delivered yet. We can only speculate what went on in the discussion between doctors and prospective parents, but although doctors are naturally expected to respond to questions, they are not obliged to offer a full briefing and list of resources and helplines unprompted. In the more common case of Down’s Syndrome, there is an enormous amount of research on life expectancy, quality of life and support available, and it seems simply sensible to offer a good overview of it without waiting to be asked. You and I might think it natural to ask about the statistics and data on all these things: not every couple in a state of shock and distress will do so.
Mike L: many thanks. I don’t think 22 weeks would produce a reluctance to abort over 20, any more than 24 weeks currently inhibits abortion over 22. There are two aspects, both disputed (which is why I want to listen to the debate before deciding): viability, and the ability of the foetus at 22 weeks to feel pain during the abortion.
I seem to offended a poster last night by calling him a Creature, not for the first time. Never thought it was that awful an insult, but perhaps my affection for animals in misleading me. When I read first Yeats writing of a great beast shambling towards its birth, my first reaction was ‘aaaah!’, and I was a bit taken aback to find he meant the Devil.
BBC Scotland: “Send in your questions for Scottish Tory leader Annabel Goldie.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/7398961.stm
Well, strange things happen in by-elections - at least, that will be the Labour line after the declaration. As for the Lib Dems, unless they lose their deposit - which no one is yet predicting - they can shrug it off as “not our sort of place, old chap”. More important to them will be to hold their vote share in Henley when it comes along.
Governments are thrashed not when they’re hated, but when they’re pitied - that was true of the Tories in the mid-nineties and is true of Labour now. The difference is that then everyone knew where the Tories had to go to re-brand themselves - to the “one nation” position (as Mr Jones said upthread) - the only surprise is perhaps that they did not do so in 2001 - I sense an “A” level politics question - “did Ken Clarke cost the Tories the 2005 election?”
No one has a clue how Labour can re-brand itself in defeat. Brown’s 10p fiasco has tarnished “moderate Labour” as a force for social justice for a generation and in any case there is, sadly, neither economic justification nor any widespread desire for a fairer society. The class system that created Labour is part of history, so a move to the left offers no solution either.
The problem will arise in ten or twelve years’ time, when Tory ministers are as exhausted by office as Labour ones are now. Will there be an opposition Party that looks like a government in waiting? In the past there has been one: local government has usually provided the evidence. That may not be so in ten years’ time - the Tories may well lose councillors not to Labour or LibDem, but to 57 varieties of independents who cannot, separately or together, be seen as an alternative Government.
It is interesting that the “spiral of silence” adjustments etc now reduces the Conservative lead whereas when it was first used it increased the Conservative poll.
If we only used the figures of those who expressed an opinion the numbers look like:-
Conservative 54
Labour 28
LD 12
UKIP 1
Other 4
Which takes us into 20% swings and Brown awaiting the men in grey suits (and sweaty socks).
As yet nothing being said about how the postal votes have split.
13 Looks about right to me - Greens possibly a bit high, LibDems a bit low, but probably a Tory majority of 4500-5500 over Labour IMO.
Once again Betfair has failed to introduce anything other than a foregone winner’s market for C&N and I had thought that after a number of interesting handicapped positions in one way Democratic contests in the US, Shadsy & Co. might have tried something similar for this week’s by-election.
Incidentally, just a dreadful couple of hours on PB last night, when clearly Mike wasn’t around to moderate.
58. They are not allowed to tell us how postal votes are going (though a keen set of eyes can get an approximation)..
55. Well Nick you seem to have resiled from your previous view that Labour might ‘just shade it’ in C&N rather quickly.
42 Henry - Re: Milburn, he was once seen very much as a rising star. But having been out of government for so long, does he really have a fan club any more or would he be happy simply to be seen as a stalking horse?
If we really are going to have a challenge, from whoever, maybe now would be a good time to moderate those GE Seats bets somewhat.
42. “Alan Milburn will challenge for the Labour leadership this weekend”.
How?
56.
“your questions for Scottish Tory leader Annabel Goldie.””
You would have been wiped out if it wasn’t for the proportional representation system which you opposed originally. Is not mass Hari Kiri the only honorable way out?
61 Gaz, not allowed yes. But no regular contributer has heard anything?
65. No. It means she believes in the FPTP system even when it acts as disadvantage.
Morning Campers …. Is it safe to come out to play …. have last nights creatures finally gone ?????
………………………………….
Overnight delegate totals from over the pond. Obama +6 Clinton +3.
New SUSA Primary Poll for Kentucky :
Clinton 62% .. Obama 31%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=12224d8c-e666-436d-a478-bfcb5f6aec2f
64 David - presumably more as a statement of intent than an actual challenge, possibly with a view to bring out more realistic challenger(s), as well as adding generally to doubts about GB’s future.
62: harry, I generally trust a series of polls over my own impressions.
70. Funnily enough, I generally trust a series of polls over your impressions too, Nick.
New article - Word reaches me: “Milburn planning a challenge”
Iowa SD Scott Brennan will endorse Obama later today to coincide with Obama’s “delegate milestone victory” lap in the state :
http://www.qctimes.com/articles/2008/05/19/news/local/doc48322ee3ad4d2666461227.txt?sPos=2
70. Jack W’s ARSE is now indicating a 70 tory majority when it was only a matter of weeks ago it nudged over Cons as largest party for the first time….
I have heard of stories of panic and behavior to outsiders that would look like signs of mental illness as it dawned on Tory MPs in the mid 90s that the were going to lose their seats, in such a scenario, without a turnaround, such behaviour by Labour MPs has to be expected, it is only natural.
74 Gaz. Er … majority of 90 now !!
42. Henry. That would make sense. A stalking horse without a chance but with nothing to lose. Though as I understand it there is no mechanism for challenging the leadership? Nonetheless perhaps just the threat would do the trick. Labour needs some focus and nothing will achieve that like a leadership contest.
Stuart Dickinson.
Whilst I never respond to your posts [have no personal insight to add] I would at least like you to know I always read them and believe your Scottish insight/presence would be missed on here.
[Likewise - ChrisD, Easterross]
Malcolm@2. Agree wholeheartedly.
Though it would be nice if I got your name correct!
74. Sorry Jack, one should never underestimate the size of your ARSE.
With the LDs on 12%, can we take it that the LDs made a mistake when they replaced their local candidate with the “super Ms Shenton”?
1. Upset the activists.
2. Lost a local candidate.
3. In a short by election, no time to publicise an outsider that lacked any links to C&N.
Seems to have broken a few best practices?
“2m. Britons emigrate in 10 years - almost unparalleled” Office for National Statistics. 1.6m foreign nationals left (probably the best) and 3.9m foreigners arrived.I suspect these figures would be matched by those who for family/financial reasons cannot leave.Labour is in the process of destroying our country(Ed.Balls-so what?) This is why posters are so angry and sometimes go over the top.If the Conservatives get in, they will have the immensely difficult task of turning round this exodus - I just hope it is not too late.
80 The candidate replaced was not local but from Derbyshire IIRC .
Svejk. Even Cameron’s Conservatives can’t produce all the year round sunshine and good food in almost every restaurant. I think the reason for the exodus in the simplicity of travel these days particularly within the EU and the fact that there is more wealth-some of it property related-in the UK than there was ten years ago. People can sell their house in London and live out their lives in Tuscany.
Roger 83. 2m. people living out their lives in Tuscany? Nonsense - Have you any idea of the trauma involved in emigrating - you have to be desparate to do it.
re 80:
1. To the best of my knowledge (and I’m quite involved) NO local activists have withdrawn because of the adoption of Elizabneth Shenton (who has been very impressive as a candidate);
2. Our byelection candidate is significantly more local than the previously selected GE candidate;
3. Marc Godwin had only recently been selected and had yet to establish a significant profile.
A hard and fast rule, like that of gravity:
NEVER EVER underestimate the capacity for the Conservative and Unionist Party to cock up a by-election.
Having spent a fair time in C&N in the last couple of weeks, I think the polls are grossly underestimating the Lib Dem vote.
The voters have abandoned Labour but, for many, the jump to the Tories is too much. Despite the media aqueeze, the LDs are holding up on the doorstep and on the street.
There could be a lot of experts with egg on their faces come Friday morning.