My General Election call: A Conservative majority
May 23rd, 2008
Why C&N gives me the confidence to come off the fence
In assessing the significance of the Crewe and Nantwich result for the next general election ask yourself this - when was the last time that the Tories took a seat off Labour in a by-election and then failed to win the subsequent general election?
The answer is Leyton in January 1965 which was held in the unique circumstances of a vacancy being created to provide a Commons seat for Labour’s Foreign Secretary who had lost his seat only three months earlier in the general election.
Leyton aside the record in modern times shows that Tory by election successes on the scale of Crewe and Nantwich have ALWAYS been followed by general election victories.
I know Labour chalked up four gains from the Tories in the 1987-1992 parliament and then lost. But, just like with the opinion polls, the party needs to be demonstrating much more emphatically than the Tories that it is on top before you can safely predict that it is going to take power.
The Conservative victories in 1970 and 1979 were both preceded by significant by election triumphs. Before C&N the last Tory gain from Labour was at Ilford North in 1978 when there was a swing of just 6.9%. Just compare that with the latest result of a 17.6% swing which, as Rod Crosby pointed out overnight was exactly the same as the 1977 Tory victory in Birmingham Stechford.
Unlike many pundits who like to qualify their forecasts, gamblers have to come to a firm view about how they risk their money. So unless there is a dramatic change in the political environment, such as a might just happen with a different Labour leader, I cannot see any other result than a Conservative overall majority - and this is how I am betting.
The C&N result was also further vindication of the “Golden Polling Rule” - that the most accurate survey is the one that shows Labour in the least favourable position. It has happened in the every single London mayoral race, at every general election of recent times and now at Crewe & Nantwich.
There were three by election surveys - ICM had Tory leads of 4% and 8% while the last, Comres has a 13% lead. The actual margin was 19%.
Mike Smithson
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Two years is a long time in politics. We never quite know what will happen; it is too early to tell. By-elections don’t happen often enough in the right sort of constituencies to be a reliable guide as if it’s some sort of iron law of inevitability.
I think its becoming very unlikely that the Labour Party can hold off an election for two years. Its sort of like when you put the pot on to make tea and its about to reach a boiling point when the noise is just to great to ignore.
re 1. On that basis John you would never bet on anything.
It all depends on how limpet-like Brown is over the next few months Mike. In the unlikely event that he can be shifted this year then Labour could still turn it around.
Granted I think thats not going to happen as Brown’s greatest skill is in the inner workings of his own party but who would have thought Maggie could be removed at the start of 1990.
Stranger things have happened, especially to politicians looking at the oncoming train-wreck….
Any news of Boris’ Henley? Any by-election to come in June? Or will it be July?
- “… I cannot see any other result than a Conservative overall majority…”
I totally agree with both your analysis, and with your conclusion Mike.
I believe that everyone, from all political parties, now has to start strategic planning based on a comfortable working Conservative majority after the next UK GE.
This changes planning for everybody, but mostly I would argue for the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party, both of which have been praying for a hung parliament. Now we need to sit up and smell the coffee: there is not going to be a hung parliament. Now, is that clear enough?
PS. Ignore Mike’s “Golden Polling Rule” at your peril. He is spot on.
PSS. There will be no “swingback” to the Labour government. “Swingbacks” only happen with Conservative governments.
Seems to be another more recent Golden Rule - take the worst case that Labour Spin Doctors give in their expectation management and the result will be worse.
Labour voters chose to go straight across to the Conservatives in big numbers in Crewe - I agree with Mike that this makes an outright Tory win in 2010 the most likely outcome. I just can’t see what will make voters choose another 5 years of Brown or more importantly of this tired Government.
The political spread-betting markets agree with you Mike. Latest Spreadfair prices (seats at UK GE 2005):
Con 345.5 - 355.0 (198 seats)
Lab 228.1 - 234.5 (356 seats)
LD 45.0 - 46.9 (62 seats)
SNP 8.8 - 10.9 (6 seats)
PC 3.0 - 3.5 (3 seats)
(NI 18 seats)
http://www.spreadfair.com/
The next House of Commons = 650 seats (+4 seats). Therefore 326 seats are needed to form a majority government. So the political betting community is predicting a workable Tory majority of approximately 25 seats. Probably a bit on the low side?
We are currently looking at approximately 125 net seat losses for Labour. On the last occasion that a UK government was kicked out of office, at the 1997 general election, John Major lost 171 seats. If the Labour Party keeps Gordon Brown as leader I expect their net seat losses will be nearer Major’s 171 than the current 125 level.
Mike is spot on I think - money to be made!
My only caveat is the scenario that Labour have the guts to remove Brown. If they do then it’s possible things could swing back a little, but it might make it worse (as it would be messy) and to be honest I think the writing’s on the wall.
The next Gov’t will be Conservative. The only question is how big there majority will be.
Rejoice, rejoice!!
Jon Pienaar on Radio 5 just now: “This defeat outstrips Labour’s worst expectations by a long, long way……No wonder David Cameron is beaming and lighting up Crewe with his smile……”
and: “….most voters in the country are saying that Labour would be better off without Gordon Brown……He must have a sweaty botty at the moment…”
The knives will be out with a vengeance for Brown this weekend but will they succeed in dumping him?
The future is Bright, the future is Blue?
Brown derailed at Crewe. Crewe’s missile hits Downing Street. Danger signalled for Labour.
If Brown is taking the right decisions, for the right reasons, how does he explain why so many votes swung against Labour in this by-election. Hard to see how Labour can recover from this. Almost a majority of votes cast for the Tory - highly unusual in any form of election in the UK.
Labour’s candidate choice might have worked in a rotten borough, pre 1832. ‘Other than Mummy, Daddy and Granddad being Labour MPs, what qualities do you bring to Nantwhich, Ms Dunwoody?’
Looks as if the voters weren’t convinced that Labour was selecting on merit. It may make the Tories think twice about a candidate with a family connection at Henley.
What ought to worry Labour MPs is the state of the public finances at this stage of the economic cycle, Brown has got it wrong economically, and is destroying their political futures.
I understand the attraction of doing a Bob Wooster but it is no more a certainty than that Man City will avoid the drop in two years time.
A good result for the Tories last night. Labour are in trouble and the blame seems to centre on the 10p tax for which Gordon has no alibis. A more interesting thread might have asked whether Gordon is likely to survive rather than this Mystic Meg stuff.
Labour need to start spending money on a decent advertisers and quickly. The ‘toff campaign’ was so badly handled that had it been devised and run by an agency the whole team responsible would be looking for a new job by now.
12 - Roger, you have no money to spend on advertisers. You have few councillors and a membership in desperate decline.
I don’t think Mike is Mystic Meg, he can just read and do sums.
8. Caveat: “Therefore 326 seats are needed to form a majority government.”
I should of course have noted that all elected Sinn Féin MPs will be abstaining again, therefore reducing the de facto size of the next HoC to approx 643 seats. Therefore, in order to form a majority government the Conservatives only need approx 322 seats, not 326.
11 Exactly. With massive, crippling levels of private and public debt, rising price inflation, and a deteriorating economy there’s trouble ahead for which Brown will take a (justifiably) large share of the blame.
12 Spend money on advertising??! Your pals in government have already spent billions promoting themselves and employ an army of spinners, all on the public purse. How much more of our money do you think this useless, odious bunch should spend on lying to us?
Face it, Brown and Labour are a busted flush. You are on notice from the voters that you are heading for the sack at the first opportunity.
BBC Website ‘Tories snatch Crewe from Labour.’
By implication stealing votes, something rightfully Labour’s. At the moment greater prominence given to the ‘bomber’ in Exeter - bigger picture, bigger tex, top centre. Am a little surprised by the webpage layout for UK news.
But am still waiting for Ave It 08’s take.
Bloggers haven’t woken up -
Con Home says
Thursday 22nd May 2008
We expect a “substantial” Conservative majority
buck up chaps - shake a leg, eh?
David Miliband calls Jack Straw “pathetic”:
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7416003.stm
has the leadership contest started in earnest?
Try to keep up,Roger,we had a Gordon Brown thread at this time yesterday.
The markets on Betfair are normally totally unflappable.I have spent the last month going huge RED on a Labour overall and sleep very well at nights.
My ‘pet’ has been NOM .They say that some traders would rather divorce their wives than unwind a potentially bad trade so I am still very GREEN on a NO OVERALL which I have always hitherto regarded as value.
NOM 3.6
LAB 7.0
CON 1.75
OTH 160
Here the question is posed in its sharpest form.You can Lay all these prices and thereby by ommitting one of them,be on the option of choice.
Is 1.75 value for a CON Overall ? It certainly looks that way this morning but you have to Lay 3.6 and 7.0 to get it.
***** IT’S THUMBS UP ARSE AT CREWE AND NANTWICH *****
JNN PRESS RELEASE EMBARGO 23/05/08 0630hrs
Celebrating alongside the Conservatives last night in Crewe and Nantwich were ARSE the pollster who in a head to head with rivals ICM and ComRes utterly crushed them with a stunningly accurate prediction that sent shock waves through the polling community.
Founder and Chief Executive of ARSE Jack W said :
“Modesty forbids me to reflect that overnight ARSE has become the greatest polling outfit in the history of mankind. However if in some small way my ARSE can make a contribution to the reversal of global warming, starvation on the planet and the relegation of Watford FC to the Rymans League Division Two, then so be it.”
“We at ARSE feel the hand of history on our shoulders and will walk tall with heads held high as the finger of destiny gives us a thumbs up.”
Note - Actual Result/ARSE Poll - Released 22/05/08 16.15hrs
Cons .. 49.5%/49% .. Lab 30.5%/29% .. LibDem 14.5%/16% .. Others 5.5%/6%
A few selected headlines from the on-line purveyors of this morning’s news :
The Telegraph : Rampant Tories crush Labour in by-election
The Times: Disaster for Brown after Tory landslide
The Mail : Tories win Crewe by a landslide leaving Brown in desperate fight for survival
The Guardian: Brown facing meltdown as Labour crash in Crewe
And last, but not least (and you have to smile, really) :
The BBC : Tories snatch Crewe from Labour
Phew - we just made it, then!
12 Roger, it’s not a matter of presentation though that has a part. Great advertising and skilled PR can boost initial sales but once public realises its a duff product then the game is up. We had the product re-launch last July with new packaging and a re-brand, good strapline (Not flash just Gordon), great initial public response, good sales figures. The consumers realised the product still wasn’t any good last Autumn and the brand re-launches since then have had less and less effect.
Some in the agency team are now considering whether another re-brand is in order with a shiny new leader and another launch (perhaps copying the market leader and getting their own Dave on the packet) - the product though is worn out, market has changed and it needs re-constituting not just a branding change.
Its not Gordon that’s the problem, it’s the Government, tired, no new ideas, increasingly fractious.
12. There’s not much point spending money on advertising if the product is dodgy, and that means Brown. The only question is when there will be a challenge. I spoke to a widely respected NEC member the other day who reckons that he has to go.
Up to the PLP now.
Michael Settle interviews David Cameron for The Herald. It is full of juicy quotes, but here are some of the tastier bits, including referring to Alex Salmond as a brilliant politician and a great communicator:
“He sees, on the back of the Wendyrendum fiasco, a golden opportunity for the Scottish Conservatives to be the main beneficiaries from the Unionist vote by portraying themselves as the “straightforward party of the Union”… Gordon Brown, he argues, is “playing games with the Union” by risking a referendum at a time of his deepest unpopularity. “There’s a really big opportunity because Labour have completely screwed up on the Union with Bendy Wendy all over the place,” he declares.
But the cosying up of Ms Goldie with Scotland’s First Minister is unsettling some Tories as they understand how Alex Salmond believes a Conservative Government in London will be a godsend to his goal of Scottish independence.
The Conservative leader believes the SNP leader is on a “long-term lose situation” because “for all his brilliance as a politician, great manoeuverer, great communicator, at the end of the day, Alex Salmond is someone who wants to break apart the United Kingdom and the majority of Scottish people do not want that”.
“Some people say we’re mad: you’ve a much better chance of being the Prime Minister of England. Well, I don’t want to be the Prime Minister of England, I want to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.”
… “If we replace the Barnett Formula with a needs-based formula, Scotland has very great needs and Scotland will get very great resources.” Pressed about the formula’s future, he insists: “This cannot last forever, the time is approaching.” Asked if, therefore, he feels the formula is coming to the end of the road, Mr Cameron replies: “Yes, that’s right,”… “
So: bye bye Barnett Formula!! Yet another SNP policy implementation.
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2291803.0.Weve_lost_so_many_elections_we_have_to_deserve_to_win_every_vote.php
‘Cameron: Barnett formula’s days are numbered’:
http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.2291777.0.Cameron_Barnett_formulas_days_are_numbered.php
The Herald leader: ‘Part of the Union’:
http://www.theherald.co.uk/features/editorial/display.var.2291778.0.Part_of_the_Union.php
22. No, it is clearly Gordon that is the problem. There is nothing about a Labour govt that intrinsically puts people off, as was shown by Gordon’s initial honeymoon in the polls.
Actually the person I feel a bit sorry for at the moment is Peter Hain. At a moment like this he would have been quick to jump in but alas, he’s blown it.
16 btw Stuart the spread markets with 350 mid would forecast a Tory majority of 50 not 25. They are actually lower than the high yeterday which was 359.5 - 69 majority.
25 the Labour Government was unpopular before Gordon (remember the 2007 local elections), it was unpopular even in winning a majority of seats in 2005 (36% of vote in Great Britain). The difference today is that Cameron and team have been able to make the Conservatives recipients of the votes looking for an alternative. Gordon might have made it worse faster but the tide turned about four years ago.
Reitereate my congratulations to the Coservatives on a good victory last night .
On the thread topic , since the 2nd World War there have been 4 occassions when a Labour government lost byelections to the Conservatives on 2 1945-50 and 1964-66 Labour retained power on 2 1966-70 and 1974-79 they lost power though it is arguable whether they would have done so in Autumn 1978 .
The key to the next election is the economy and not whether the Conservatives won the Crewe byelection .
‘Holyrood trust rating jumps 20 points since election’
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2291723.0.Holyrood_trust_rating_jumps_20_points_since_election.php
‘Trust in Holyrood soars by 20%, says poll’
http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Trust-in-Holyrood–soars.4113937.jp
27. Jon
Whoops! Ta for that Jon. How embarassing. Next I will be screwing up some ’swing’ sums…
On the Party Leaders mkt. things are eerily quiet.Both Brown/Cameron and Cameron Only can be backed at odds against but just for pennies.Cameron Only is marginal favourite on the balance of betting since yesterday morning.
I woke up half expecting to see my Brown/Cameron matched but it nowhere near was.Don’t expect GB to be departing any time soon.
Good morning,Jon.Have you moved to 45.0 ?
25 - That doesn’t necessarily follow. The initial honeymoon was a verdict on Brown, not the Labour Party.
Actually you’re right that it’s nothing to do with the Labour Party. It’s the economy. ‘Twas ever thus.
People will always vote Labour as long as they want money spent on things, and think there is money to be spent. They like having their pleasant town centres, well kept public gardens, and shiny buildings. But once the Electorate decides they are just taking too many liberties they revert to the Conservatives.
The BBC think the Conservatives are already in Government - Robinson’s diary entry on C&N and comparative swings:
“The Tories will say that this is the biggest swing from Labour to the Tories in more than 30 years……..The opposition parties wll, on the other hand, point out that they’ve had much bigger swings in by-elections…”
Labour as one of the opposition parties, not yet but not to long to go.
On anything like the Crewe & Nantwich result (or rather what that portends for the average of byelections between now and the next GE) their is clearly strong potential for a Conservative majority in the not-so-distant future.
Perhaps the real question is: how big?
Personally think that somewhere under 50 may be the most likely answer. And that this might actually be better than a hung parliament with the Tories as the largest party; clearly it’s prefereable from Labour’s view than a Conservative landslide.
My reasoning is that a small Tory majority would give Labour a decent chance of coming back to power, after a period of rejuvenation & renewal (but not enough R&R to tilt it too far back to the left) following the next general election.
Whereas a Tory minority government might well be followed by a Tory majoriy government, and if that was the trend, why not a medium sized one. Which would delay Labour’s return to power for at least another cycle.
28. Clearly there were Labour/Conservative switchers in C&N and the post-mortem in the next few days should show why so many Labour voters were p*ssed off enough with Labour to do this. Whether Cameron and the Cons, outside of a byelection, really represent “the alternative” is another matter. They need to come up with some policies first. Cameron’s recent pronouncement that you can cut taxes and improve public services at the same time was not a very impressive start.
32 yes - still no joy. I thought I would be in with a chance after what I thought was a slightly poor result for us in Crewe. I guess Tories have done their sums and decided we aren’t going to lose 20 seats to them after all.
25 — Gordon Brown is not the problem. Well, he is in the sense that his series of too-clever-by-half stunts like the 10p abolition, Iraq trip, and election hype destroyed the post-Blair honeymoon, but that has gone now.
The problem now is the economic and social double double whammy hitting Labour supporters. A shiny new leader will not help Labour simply by smiling more: ask the LibDems!
There is room for Labour to act to ameliorate conditions for the public. Unfortunately, its recent not-the-Queen’s-speech shows that, like many on here, the government thinks not enough spin is the problem.
28. Ted - “The Labour Government was… unpopular even in winning a majority of seats in 2005 (36% of vote in Great Britain).”
And Blair ‘won’ with only 35.3% of the vote in the UK (ie. including NI), on a turnout of just 61%. So, under FPTP, Labour ‘won’ a solid majority with the votes of approximately 22% of the electorate. And some politicos wonder why the general populace are disillusioned with politics? Ho hum…
29 - Mark, I don’t think Labour lost any seats to the Conservatives in the 1945-50 or 1950-51 Parliaments.
morning btw
38. the Queen’s speech is written by the leader
Jack. If the figures you quote from your ARSE are real then congratulations! It’s finally come good and blown some much bigger ones out of the water!
Ted. I was specifically referring to the campaign in C+N. A very difficult concept which needed subtle handling. I’ve been hearing all morning on radio about the disastrous ‘toff campaign’. This alone is a disaster and might well have screwed up a reasonable approach for the future. It needed wit and subtlety not size 14’s!
I agree a re-relaunch is a waste of time. A totally new approach is needed. A new leader would be a start but whether Labour will have the voter appeal without it’s twin pillars of Blair and Brown is doubtful. A Miliband brimming with new thinking is possibly their only and best chance
chris bryant was the government’s spokesman last night…since they couldn’t find ANY even vaguely senior person to defend Labour could the BBC not have got Quentin Davies it would have made a much improved broadcast perfect.
41.You fully deserve to be matched,Jon.The rump of my 46.9 is still dangling there and I will meet you half way at 45.9 if you like.
My take is that any strength for the Tories is bad news for the Lib Dems.I think you are hoping/expecting they can do damage to NuLab.
I think the latter have to drop the ‘Nu’ and go into the next election as ‘Labour’, thereby plucking out the core vote.
37. Jon - “I guess Tories have done their sums and decided we aren’t going to lose 20 seats to them after all.”
It is not only the Tories that the Lib Dems are going to lose seats to. A few are also likely to go to the SNP and Plaid Cymru, and I even expect Labour will make their only GE gain in the entire UK at the expense of the Lib Dems: Dunfermline & West Fife.
42 Agreed - but it’s put together with involvement from the Cabinet putting in their ideas for new policies by department. What would a different leader offer other than a temporary bounce? The Party is broke and dependent (again) on public sector union funding so a new Leader’s room for manoeuvre is limited. Public spending is tight, personal budgets even tighter for most.
Labour MPs should be taking Michael Brown’s advice in the Independent and checking their pension contributions, downgrading their cars and other expenses and starting to work at developing employment opportunities for their forthcoming career changes.
42 — yes, I know that. Everyone knows that. By “not-the-Queen’s-speech” I meant this month’s policy pre-announcments of the sort that would normally be made in the Queen’s speech.
Panorama this week was about government plans to get people off benefit. All very laudable perhaps but even if 100 per cent successful, without economic expansion it will simply exchange one set of unemployed people for another. Meanwhile, a lot of Labour voters will have been harrassed into abandoning support for the government.
Same with schools and health.
It’s about the issues, not personalities.
46 I think that wouldn’t technically count as a gain, though I fancy us strongly to keep it since the context of the election will probably be bash Labour and we are obviously in pole position to do that.
Having said that the Scottish LibDems have made very similar errors to the national party - they seemingly forgot they were democrats too.
43. Roger - “I agree a re-relaunch is a waste of time. A totally new approach is needed.”
Socialism?
McBean will be developing a twitch soon.
He’s not the only problem but he’s going to cost 20 extra lost seats on his own at this rate.
Nice to see Tim Farron accept that this was “quite a good result” for the Conservatives. When you put the figures into the predictors the Conservatives get “quite a good result” in Westomrland, 8,000 majority.
The lack of Lib Dem ramp is the real story of the night. They actually fell in votes, ?18%? to 14%. I would have expected them to have held their vote and taken another 3k. What ever the Tory capaign did to innoculate the electorate against the Lib Dem infection needs bottling. We will need it in Henley !
43. Roger
Here is Scottish Labour’s ‘new approach’:
‘Wendy Alexander re-launches Labour leadership’ (including video)
http://www.stv.tv/content/news/headlines/display.html?id=opencms:/news/Alexander_brands_SNP_right_wing_20080329
‘Wendy Alexander sees a socialist future’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article3647490.ece
‘Labour leader Wendy Alexander fights back with a big Left hook’
http://www.sundaymail.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2008/03/30/labour-leader-wendy-alexander-fights-back-with-a-big-left-hook-78057-20366773/
Morning all! It’s going to be an interesting couple of weeks! Hope that what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger turns out to be true. Labour have surely learnt alot during this campaign.
48. “It’s about the issues, not personalities” - you obviously don’t go out canvassing, then
BTW Mr Montgomerie still hasn’t woken up. It’s amazing how pb.com manages to provide a 24 hour service. How much sleep do you guys get?
54 For Example, the Toff campaign has been clearly discredited. It’s a huge benefit to Labour that we didn’t go into a GE with that strategy!
I am desperately trying to get a bet on that included in Gord’s comments about the by election will be his catchphrase “There are lessons to be learned”
55
The man was up till 3am.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2008/05/crewes-control.html
56. I like your determined optimism Jonathan. You sound like our mad constituency secretary who was sending cheer-up-folks-it’s-not-so-bad emails at 6 a.m. this morning.
Jonathan @ 54: “Labour have surely learnt a lot during this campaign.”
Learnt what exactly? That toff attacks don’t work? Well, why didn’t they learn that from Ken-vs-Boris? Or even from earlier attacks on Cameron?
There was a time when Labour apparatchiks would know about Marx, who noted that toff attacks are repeated first as tragedy, then as farce.
55 — yes, Brown is unpopular. No-one disputes that. But Labour’s problems are far deeper than that. So, more importantly, are voters’ problems.
44 - probably not many watched it but the one who was really terrible was Liam Byrne interviewed by Gavin Esler on Newsnight. He just kept grinning broadly and talked absolute garbage. And he’s supposed to be Cabinet mterial!
Re. 13, quite, we’ve come very close to being declared bankrupt.
JohnL @ 60.
I think the toff attack did work for Livingstone to a certain extent and that is why it was repeated at C&N.
Arguably KL obtained the best result of any Labour politician on the night.
59,60 Optimism perhaps. But first, just a determination to make sure that Labour recognises that certain ideas have been tranparently shown to be totally and utterly wrong in the past month of elections.
Learning One: Toff campaigning is political history. It is discredited, it’s sponsors need to concede that and move on or get out of the way.
it’s = its
Last telegram from the bunker here, from a blog of someone called Mike Ion (http://mike-ion.blogspot.com/):
“So where do we go from here?
As predicted we have taken a severe kicking in Crewe, not just because of the ‘toff’ campaign attacks, not just because of the 10p tax fiasco and certainly not because the Tories and Cameron connect with voters but because the electorate was determined to give us a bloody nose. From the doorstep it was obvious that people were and are angry with us, disillusioned with our increasingly reactionary rhetoric and keen to send us and particularly Gordon Brown, a message.
As no doubt a plethora of posts and comments that will appear throughout the Labour blogosphere over the next day or so will indicate, the real challenge to the continuation of the pursuit of a progressive political agenda comes not from a resurgent Tory party but from the defeatists, pessimists and cynics that exist within our own movement. If Labour is to secure an unprecedented fourth term then it must urgently set about renewing itself, its message and its organisation.
I am not ashamed to be in the Labour party and I am proud of what we have achieved since 1997 but I am also acutely aware that we cannot constantly keep talking about these achievement. Looking to the past has much to recommend it, living in the past nothing at all.”
we cannot constantly keep talking about these achievements
The fact that they all seem (rightly or wrongly) hollow in the face of rising taxes, rising prices and growing pessimism is precisely why these “achievements” did not make the base of the campaign.
Not that Toff bashing did any better but….
36 ermintrude of course of can be done, see Wandsworth council. Boris in London will demonstrate it.
Can I just pause to congratulate JackW? The ARSE done good, so it did.
ALL PRAISE THE ARSE. THE ARSE IS THE NEW ARBITER OF TRUTH. EMBRACE THE ARSE. THE ARSE IS YOUR GOD NOW.
etc.
67. Mike is a self-appointed cheerleader type. This sort of cliched stuff is fairly typical. If you want to read more of it and send yourself to sleep, go to the “Progress” blog.
Bleary eyed this morning, still can’t quite believe the scale of it last night.
I really don’t think there is much Labour can do this side of an election, I do believe a new page has been turned in the political story.
The public have worked out that there is no substance behind Nulab, and there never has been - it’s sole purpose was simply to win elections; not run the country.
Jonathon. The ‘toff campaign’ didn’t work because it was mishandled and ended up looking crass and oafish. The public don’t mind toffs for being toffs but when for example Cameron is seen to use a chauffeur to carry his shirt and shoes then it’s a different story. I hope the idiots in C+N haven’t lost this weapon for Labour.
- “… in the first quarter of this year… according to figures released by the Electoral Commission… Labour received £2.8m, mostly from trade union donations…”
http://tinyurl.com/4tzrzo
“If you do not want your union money to go to the Labour Party then create an email to your union using the form below. Fill in your name, address and the date and send it. Your union will then stop giving your money to the Labour party.”
POLITICAL FUND (EXEMPTION NOTICE)
Name:
Address:
Date:
I give notice that I object to contributing to the Labour Party through the Political Fund of the Union, and am in consequence exempt, in the manner provided for by Chapter VI of Part 1 of the Trade Union and Labour Relations (Consolidation) Act 1992, from contributing to any political fund that donates to the Labour party.
http://tinyurl.com/4o67rs
Can we make Roger Labour’s general election strategist?
You know that the car *also* carries Dave’s red boxes, of which he gets a full set every day, don’t you? Yes. I imagine you did.
Seems to me that Gordon Brown is in a very similar pickle to that of Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin a few years ago.
Before becoming Prime Minister in the UK, GB served through two Labour administrations as Chancellor under Tony Blair.
Ditto in Canada, where before becoming PM, Martin was Finance Minister in two Liberal administrations under Jean Cretien.
Note that the emnity between Blair & Brown and their attendent entourages, was matched with at least equal viturpitation by the radioactive chemistry of the Cretien-Martin relationship.
What happened in Canada was, when Paul Martin finally finished prying his predecessor’s grip from the levers of power in Ottawa, he pretty much had to call an election. Which resulted in the Grits loosing their majority, but emerging as the largest party in the hung parliament. And winning the support of key independents, including one former Conservative independent (similar to the ex-Labour MP from south Wales).
Difference here was that the third parties & independenets in Canada - in particular the NDP and Bloc Quebecoise - proportionately elected more MPs in their counterparts in the UK, in large measure to the BQ’s dominenace of federal seats in La Belle Province.
Martin’s “win” turned out to be a pyhrric victory, because at the next election the tables turned. First, because the Liberal govt going back to Chretien days was implicated in scandal, in particular the use of federal funds theoretically targeted to promote “federalism” in Quebec were actually targeted into the pockets of well-connected Liberals in Montreal, Quebec City and most especially Shawinigan the home of Jean Cretien. The “Sponsorship Scandal” naturally drove the taxpayers & voters in English Canada nuts and drove them to the Tories. It also pissed off the Quebeckers, because it made them the whole province look like a bunch of crooks (a popular Anglo stereotype).
But perhaps the desive factor was the sencond reason for Tory success, which was the fact that Conservative leader Stephen Harper proved to be a quick learner. In particular, he drew the right conclusions from his first defeat by Martin, and implemented them: a) toned down his rightwing rhetoric; b) enforced disipline on the wackos in the Tory caucus; and c) differentiated himself from George Bush as opposed to the previous bonehead policy of embracing him as a fellow conservative.
And it worked. The Tories emerged as the largest party, and Harper formed a minority government. Which yet survives, because the opposition - in particular the Liberals, who are engaged in a leardership crisis of their own under Martin’s successor as federal leader, Stephane Dion.
Bottom line - the flaws and follies of the over-ripe Canadian Liberal government finally caught up with it when two things happened:
1) the illusion of compentent (albeit boring) government was shattered by scandal/crisis; and
2) the opposition created at least the illusion that it had reformed & repented of past sins under new leasership, thus passing the sniff test by ceasing to be a perceived threat to the public weal.
Think the Canadian experience is relavant to the UK, because the Canuck political system is thoroughly British with little Westminsters not just in Ottawa but in all of the provincial and even territorial capitals. Which matches in many respects the emerging regionalism within the United Kingdom.
The British - the strong majority anyway - have historically prided themselves on their national unity. Which was localized and traditional enough to permit such quaint observances as the Queen being an Anglican in Sandringham but a Presbyterian up in Balmoral. But in true essence highly centralized from the locus of London.
Whereas by contrast Canada has always appeared to be a country on the verge of falling apart. Not just the Two Solitudes of English Speaking v. Francophone, but the Atlantic v Ontario v the Prairies v Alberta v BC, with Newfoundland v. Everybody including Nunuvit.
Yet the Canucks have always managed to hold it together. Sometimes with inspired or at least inspiring leadership (Macdonald, Laurier), sometimes despite it (Diefenbaker, Trudeau). And sometimes with bland & pedestrian leaderhip (King, Pearson, maybe St Laurent & Cretien on a general day) that in retrospect looks pretty good, leastways to running the more dangerous rocks & rapids of Canadian politics and national destiny.
John MsDonnell MP has it spot on.
I think a double substitution is called for ie replace both the PM and Deputy PM.
Harriet Harperson spoke utter claptrap on Sky News this morning.
“Things are just going from bad to worse for the government,” John McDonnell, a Labour lawmaker who challenged Brown for the leadership of the party last year, said in an e- mail. “The lesson tonight for the Labour Party is that it is change or bust.”
Looks like “bust ” to me
73 I agree with all that you’ve said. But more fundamentally people said “Yes, I agree they’re toffs. So what!”. The Cameron thing is different, it demonstrates hypocrisy. Quite a different issue IMO.
BTW like the spirit of the post quoted in 67. Need a punchier vocab in my opinion.
73. Roger, if you think people will change their vote on the basis of Cameron having a car to transfer his red boxes, then your lot are in even greater trouble than you’re in at the moment.
OMG!
Nick Robinson referring to Tractor Plans on Radio 4!
He seems to think that Tractors Brown is doomed.
45 well somebody just gave me 2 “From little acorns mighty oak trees grow” and all that…
Regarding the Henley by-election, I have only just noticed this (courtesy of Mi-Lord Rennard’s excuse e-mail he sent me this morning) but the Lib Dem candidate for Henley is one Stephen Kearney.
He is not “local”. Will the Lib Dems make much of an issue of being “local” this time? I wouldn’t run on a book on it!
Harman in full-on bunker mode foul harpie on the Today programme.
She “doesn’t think the Labour campaign affected the result”. HAHAHAHAHA.
72. Marcus Wood - “… it’s sole purpose was simply to win elections; not run the country.”
The primary purpose of the Labour Party machine was to win elections… in order for its chubby wee piglets to gorge themselves at the trough of taxpayers’ cash.
If you doubt the truth of this, just have a look at the mafias running Scottish Labour’s badlands.
Now that they can no longer win elections, and thus feed the chubby wee piglets, there is no purpose whatsoever to the Labour Party. Bye bye, and good riddance.
Gordon reacts to C&N:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkUzfAfwP1A
ARE THE TORIES THAT CLOSE?
MY CABINET HAVE BETRAYED ME!
I’VE BEEN LIED TO FROM THE VERY BEGINNING!
New Thread Godwins Law Violated.
77
John MsDonnell MP has it spot on. not in my opinion.
It’s the economy.
And with oil prices etc and the building industry about to make 100,000 direct employees redundant in the next 6 months - plus probably 200,000 related jobs to follow..
and retail sales down…
The economic gloom is going to get worse..
They could change Gordon Brown to David Cameron as Leader but the Government are going to be blamed whomever the Leader.
“Good” morning all
A very hearty congratulations to all the Tory boys and girls out there. This was a stellar victory by anyone’s standards and you should feel thrilled.
I felt I had to come out and “show my face” as it were. Well. What now then? I fear in my heart that Gordon neither knows nor understands the level of sheer anger and distrust that is focussed against him and the government. It breaks my heart to admit this, it really does, (especially on a site where, shall we say, gloating at political opponent’s misfortune has evolved into almost an art form!) but I don’t thing Gordon is up to the job. Trotting out the line “I am the best person to make the tough decisions in difficult times” just won’t wash.
I had such great hopes of and for Gordon. I have to admit that, although I believe him to be of the highest personal integrity and intellectual calibre, he has simply not proved to be prime ministerial material. He has been a disappointment in almost every sphere. Labour supporters like me look on in dispair and disbelief. From the utter farago of the 10p tax decision (well done Gordon), to the needless and pointless rows with the police and nurses (over practically a pittance!) the government lurches from crisis to crisis, with no one seemingly at the helm. The reheated Blairism that was presented as the next bills to go through Parliament will enthuse no one, least of all the activists. My brother said yesterday “If they are going to act like incompetent Tories, well, you may as well elect the real thing!”
I can come up with new policies and directions for the party to take, but I fear the public has just stopped listening. When the ball rolls away from you in politics, there isn’t much you can do about it. I know a lot can happen in two years, and I shall work hard for an unprecedented 4th term. But really, in the final analysis, why do we WANT to win a 4th term? What do we have to offer with Gordon as PM?
I am proud to be a member of a party which, I believe, has changed this country immesurably for the better since 1997, not only in macro terms, but in personal, family terms that I won’t bore you with here. This really is the tipping point and I see no profit in deluding myself.
Oh well, at least the sun is shining!
Good result, particularly given the negative campaigning that went on.
Regarding the next election:
Brown’s rubbish at presentation and connecting with people but he’s also lost his gravitas.
So, do you replace him and if so, with whom?
If Labour move they should move this year, but I’m still not convinced that would be best. The possibility of more serious splits opening up (right now there are no ideological divides yet they’re still managing to do some infighting) could be worse than retaining the Supreme Leader.
Mike’s right, the most likely result at present is a Conservative majority. Naturally things can change, for better or worse, but right now that’s what it looks like.
78 The Cameron car thing is easily dealt with - as Cameron does when challenged “Stupid wasn’t I, happened a few times just after I became leader, got panniers, use those, silly mistake to have made”.
Gordon Brown on the other hand, based on the Wendereferendum, 10p tax rate etc, would deny he had ever done it and point out unnecessary Government car trips were 20% higher under Harold Macmillan and anyway he’s listening and taking hard, long term decisions.
To save me from flogging through loads of cheery tory comments, can our host please advise whether we should be buying or selling Labour seats at 230?
My usual rule of adding/subtracting 50 doesn’t much help. Are labour more likely to get 180 or 280 seats?
I see the BBC’s headline of “Tories snatch Crewe from Labour” has now changed to Tories hail Remarkable Victory
RSS reader still showing old headline.
Someone must have told them this just wasn’t quite the way the public were looking at the result. Maybe they were reading PB!
87 Yes it is the economy, but Labour’s problem is that they have a leader who is “Mr The Economy” so it’s personally laid at the party’s door. Matter are worse because some of the recent actions such as the 10p Tax band have actively made peoples finances tighter. It’s not rocket science. As a result Brown is in a weak position.
76. Sea Shanty Irish - “Think the Canadian experience is relavant to the UK, because the Canuck political system is thoroughly British with little Westminsters not just in Ottawa but in all of the provincial and even territorial capitals. Which matches in many respects the emerging regionalism within the United Kingdom.”
Point of information:
Unlike the Canadian federations’ provincial parliaments, none of the 3 devolved legislatures in the UK are based on the ‘Westminster system’. See:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westminster_system
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Parliament
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Assembly
78. ……Not hypocrisy but a let-them-eat-cake-out-of-touchness that he’s working hard to neutralize with his web-cam stuff and inviting cameras into his living room……
He’s ripe for satire in my opinion and when the shine comes off him-which it’s bound to in the next two years-I’m sure it’ll be exploited.
david kendrick- short term sell at 230 long term buy……no bet !
john reid praises Gordon………. unfortunately it was gordon strachan not brown!
oh happy days
43 Roger. How very dare you !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Not only was ARSE spot on with its C&N poll but other recent polls have had an seering accuracy and insightful analysis seldom seen outside the rarified circles of Nobel Prize winners and Basil Brush’s abacus .. boom boom !!!
ARSE poll republished from yesterday afternoon :
EXCLUSIVE FOR PB **** EXCLUSIVE FOR PB **** EXCLUSIVE FOR PB ****
ARSE POLL FOR CREWE AND NANTWICH **** ARSE POLL FOR CREWE AND NANTWICH
Conservative 49% …. Labour 29% …. LibDem 16% …. Others 6%
by Jack W May 22nd, 2008 at 4:20 pm
95 It was hypocrisy. He wanted to benefit from a green image that his actions in reality didn’t back up. Anyway that is now ancient history . Who cares!
The Toff thing is irrelevant whilst they’re Tories are young and in opposition. Once Cameron and Boris look like old buffers in power it will come back to haunt them. Heath looked out of touch within two years of power.
Labour’s campaign on the ground in C&N clearly made a bad situation even worse.
Saw a bit of Mr. Timpson MP on TV answering questions, he is far from a stereotypical “toff” though my colonial ear is not finely tuned to subtle class distinctions it is true. If I had to sum up the impression he made, I’d say moderate, respectful, public spirited; on a non-party basis a sound choice and a reasonable change of pace after his late, great predecessor.
So going after him with top hats & cutaways was hardly persuasive on the campaign trail. Plus unless you live in Vilna & Lvov, bashing the Poles of all people is generally a mistake, and always in poor taste. I mean, they fought like lions on the side of freedom and the British, from the skys of Kent to the ridgetops of Italy to the hedgerows of Normandy and beyond. And were left in the lurch in 1945 as in 1939. Surely this has not been forgetten in Dear Old Blighty. Particularly by likely by-election voter, who like primary voters in the US tend to be both more educated and older than the average citizen.
And lets not forget dropping the writ before Dunnwoody the Elder had even been buried, the putting Dunnwoody the Younger on display like a prize cow at the Cheshire fair.
I absolve the daughter from all of this, for by her lights, when the Labour Party called, no granddaughter of Morgan Phillips would fail to heed it. The family has done too much for the party, and visa versa. That may be dynasticism. But it’s the kind of thing that from time to time gives dynasticism a good name
But I do not absolve the Labour apparatchik incompetence that dreamed up the “Draft Tamsin” strategy in the first place. You could hear the snort from Big Mama all the way from the Pearly Gates to Paddington Station. It was an insult to Gwyneth Dunwoody’s legacy, including linking her name with an historical defeat for the Labour Party achieved by people she disdained and who disresepected her. Worse, it was an insult to the voters intelligence that even the village idiot comprehended.
So all around, appears that Labour had a worse strategy on the ground in C&N - divorced from the national nosedive of Gordon Brown & the Labour Party - than Miss Great Britian, who came in last in the poll but achieve her goal, which was a boatload of free publicity and a touch of history.
88. Very good post flump. The £30 million he wouldn’t give to the police looks silly when he’s just given billions to correct a mistake. He’s become so accident prone I can’t see him recovering. Your brother has it spot on!
101
Correct a mistake? I thought it was to buy a by-election.
101 - To be honest Rog, I feel a bit punch drunk with it all.
Was the fragrant Harriet asked why she didn’t head to Crewe to shore up Labour’s vote?
Last night I wondered if the ‘report’ on drink related admissions to hospial was linked to possible rises in excise duty, and I do wonder how Darling’s new VED regime will be received by voters. Nothing like hitting the core vote, but we are being Green, saving the planet, protecting your health.
Brown and co may have limited control over the exchange rate, but the recent falls could lead to some nasty surprises on food and oil retail prices within the next year. If exports don’t pick up over the next year, this too will damage any residual reputation the Enron Chancellor has left.
If the Tories do win, Call Me Dave will face hard decisions on spending cuts, taxes and the economy. Unlike Bliar and Co, there is no budget surplus, or strong growth, instead a rising budget deficit, stuttering growth and rising inflation coupled with a barely mentioned trade deficit. Looks like very interesting times ahead for all parties.
103 Don’t feel punch drunk. (I doubt) it’s your fault. When Labour recover it will be because of people like you. Get out enjoy the sunshine, give it a couple of days and find a way to contribute.
I would love to be a fly on the wall in the Blair household this morning.
Tony’s revenge on Gordon must qualify as one of the most spectacular rogerings in political history.
94 - good point. But it’s actually part of my point.
Because Canadians have gone into hyperdrive when it comes to regionalism. All the time pouring this new wine into old Brit bottles. Because those bottles were there pretty much from first settlement, in one form or another, scattered across the landscape from St Johns to Victoria. In deed, in most provinces the legislatures are older than the federal governments
Next 7th May, or whenever they decide to hold the 2009 local elections, Labour will be defending 483 County Council and Unitary seats that it won on General Election day in 2005.
On last nights performance, with a swing of 17½% from Labour to Conservative and 6% Labour to Lib Dems, then some 85% of the Labour seats could be at risk. Indeed, if last night’s vote is in reality “anyone but Labour”, then Labour could be pushed to retain 50 County Council seats across the whole of the country.
May 1st this year did see swings of over 10% against Labour in a few County Council by-elections which would be translated into Labour losing around 70% of its seats or more than 300 County Councillors.
The Labour Party faces potentially one more year of heavy local council losses if the government is not forced to hold a General Election before then.
Any word from the bunker yet?
Or are they still clearing up the mess, ordering new mobiles, crockery etc?
@105:
*If*, not when.
So, the Conservatives got 29% of the vote. Over 20,000 votes were cast for them. A 7,000+ majority and a swing if 17%. I think we can say a very cllear message has been sent, and that is that the public want Brown out NOW. Make no mistake, this is a very personal humiliation for the great vote loser Brown.
The thing is, we in the party are not clueless and are brimming with ideas for the future (some good, some bad, some indifferent) - but we are ignored by the party high-ups. THAT is the frustrating thing.
And what happened to the Lib-Dems? Their bote went DOWN 4%. This has got to be a minor disaster for Nick Clegg?
88. RedFlump - “… although I believe [Gordon Brown] to be of the highest personal integrity… “
I do not know where on earth you ever got that idea from, but you have clearly been gravely, gravely mislead.
101. I seem to recall you didn’t think it silly at the time when Jacqui “dick turpin” robbed the police of their promised wages. Bad move upsetting 124,000 potential voters.
115 - I have NEVER supported the totally wrongheaded policy of shafting public sector workers out of their pay just to look “tough”.
@112:
Well, that’s your problem. You do have ideas, but the party higher-ups has no choice but to ignore them. Socialism doesn’t work, and the people of Britain doesn’t want it.
117 - How nice of you to talk for “the people of Britain”. Thanks!
116. Sorry that was aimed at Roger.
Contrasting US Late Night TV
JAY LENO: joint appearance by First Lady Laura Bush and her newly-maried daughter Jena. As per usual (except when Babs in off her meds) the Bush women were much more appealing than their menfolk.
CRAIG FERGUSON: “Oprah is such a good person. Even when she farts, it helps people.”
I wonder what the result would have been if Labour had not chosen Tamsin as candidate, not run the “toff” campaign etc…My guess is that they would have done even worse as this negative campaigning at the very least brought out the core tribal Labour vote as 30% in the circs is the best they could have hoped for. It is also a measure of the how far that “taken for granted” Labour vote has shrunk. This “traditional” vote will shrink even further regardless of who is in charge, or economic circumstances and how much you pump up the volume on the hearing aid.
Sea Shanty’s great analysis of the lessons to be learnt from the Canadian experience has left me confused. I had been convinced after reading the regular posts from a certain well-known visitor to this site that in Canada only a neo-Cons islamophobic policy can ever hope to win there. I think our dear Phillipe is really Osama Bin Laden trying to cover his tracks - Dubya, for the sake of Western civilisation please take the appropriate measures.
A sign of how bad things are for Labour is that even their doomtastic spinning of low expectations has been right royally shafted twice this month. They can’t even get that right.
In the locals, it was “200 losses would be bad” - and they lost 300+.
Last night, it was “Tories going to win by 7,000″ - and they won by 8,000.
119 - OK no probs.
I just wanted to express my frustration and disappointment to like minded political freaks like me. I guess some of you enjoy acting like 14 year olds. It’s not enough to loose - we must have our faces rubbed in it and be made to “reform” and see the error of our ways and be made to disavow everything we have ever stood for and believed in. Ho hum, twas ever thus.
106. Norman Mormal - “Tony’s revenge on Gordon must qualify as one of the most spectacular rogerings in political history.”
Après moi, le déluge!
@117:
Oh, my mistake. Perhaps I’ve been misinterpreting Britain’s systematic failure to elect socialists as some kind of evidence that it’s not wanted.
Swing back to socialism if you wish. It won’t save you, obviously, but it might make opposition more bearable.
Well, one does one’s best!
Did anyone see the enthusiastic applause and clapping by the fair Gemma last night as Timpson was declared victor?
Is she a Tory on the quiet?
Mind you, everyone’s a Tory these days…
@123:
RedFlump, I don’t think anyone has any desire to rub your face in it.
Roger, maybe. Gordon, definitely.
127 - As someone said earlier “How very DARE you!”
Any senior Labour figures coming out to defend Brown yet?
Given the Liberals have LOST votes, any reason for the Tories not to call an election in Henley?
128 - Fair do’s Martin, fair do’s.
Fact is, as I said in a thread a few weeks ago, when hope is gone, then one is able to almost look objectivley at things. Like those rubberneckers who slow down and gawk at a crash on the motorway - for us Labour supporters, it is dreadful - but you’ve just *got* to look. What will happen next?
Jack,
Very brave of you to have your ARSEhanging out there - at risk of taking quite a beating.
But look on in wonder, you professional pollsters - Jack’s ARSE is a shining beacon!
108. Richard, the number of seats has dropped a bit IIRC because of the new unitaries. Labour are set to lose North Tyneside’s mayor next year as well on just the slightest swing.
Labour are going to have to play the general election in damage limitation mode. If Brown waits till 2010 he faces not only wipeout in the commons but also in the London Boroughs and the other local authorities that day. If I were Brown I’d just push through some populist legislation and charge into the breach during the brief honeymoon!
O/T Can someone please let me know how to find the Veep markets on Betfair? Unless I’m very much mistaken, they seem to have been taken down.
130:”Given the Liberals have LOST votes, any reason for the Tories not to call an election in Henley?”
Because it would be held in early summer when disproportionately more Tory voters will be likely to be on holiday (out of term time) than Lib Dem voters?
Indeed, do joyless LDs actually go on holiday?
@131:
Right you are. Still, I fundamentally believe that, whilst a return to more socialist values must look very temptingly comforting right now, it can do nothing to save Labour from what is to come.
It may be the only thing that will guarantee the Unions’ continued obeisance in staving off Labour’s bankruptcy, however.
131 I think Brown’s departure will be the next happening. Hios position is utterly hopeless. The chances of him being still in office at the time of the Party conferenece seem to me to be about zero. All that remains to be decided is the timing and manner of hi