Is Alan Johnson Labour’s best hope?
May 28th, 2008
Johnson favoured over Miliband by PoliticsHome panel
Andrew Rawnsley, at PoliticsHome, has announced the results of one of their Phi100 surveys on the leadership of the Labour Party. He writes:
“Labour would have a better chance of winning the next election under a different leader. That’s the strong view of the PHI100, Britain’s most authoritative survey of inside and expert political opinion.
Asked which Labour politician would maximise the party’s chances of holding on to power, less than one six of the politically balanced panel selected Gordon Brown.
The most popular alternative Prime Minister is Alan Johnson. Despite his disavowals of interest in the job, nearly a third of the panel (thirty two per cent) reckon the Health Secretary, a former union leader thought to have an assured touch on the media, would be Labour’s best bet as leader.”
Johnson still has strong links to the unions (he was General Secretary of the Communication Workers’ Union in the 1990s - I believe the only union leader to support Blair over Clause IV), and has held four Cabinet posts, including his current posting at the DoH.
Having come so close to winning the Deputy Leadership, might Alan Johnson be the one to re-unite Labour if the PM really were to go?
UPDATE: At precisely the moment that I published this continuation thread, PoliticsHome announced the results of a second Phi100 survey which has over 90% of their panel saying they think the Tories will be the largest party after the next General Election, and 51% stating they think Cameron will enjoy an overall majority.
Morus
Coming up on PB:
“Is this where Hillary’s dream finally dies?” at 7pm
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Johnson has one elementary factor strongly in his favour: he is English.
I’m sorry to post this totally unrelated issue at the beginning of a new thread, but I didn’t want it to get lost immediately after writing it! This is for those of you who are interested in the Democratic veepstakes:
“I know that many of you are on the Jim Webb VP bandwagon, which I decidedly am not (for reasons I’ve given multiple times). But in the spirit of good sportsmanship, I’m offering this interesting article written by an individual who disagrees with me. If you take the time to read it, be sure not to miss the caveats given late in the article.
http://www.observer.com/2008/what-jim-webb-worth-obama
While reading it, I was reminded particularly of the much-criticized Bush/Cheney relationship, where it has often been suggested that the grown-up Cheney is making the decisions (and in fact was originally chosen for the purpose of making the decisions) for the “in over his head” Bush. Might a Webb selection ironically call attention to Obama’s foreign policy inexperience since foreign policy seems to be the one issue that would recommend Webb to Obama? Wouldn’t it be better to select a VP candidate with a more well-rounded political resume instead of seeming to focus on, and call attention to, an Obama weakness?”
No. Labour’s best hope is to fix the economy. Its next best hope is to stop making life harder for its own supporters.
Gordon Brown is not the problem. He may have exarcebated or even caused the problems but simply replacing him will not swing any votes. Ask the LibDems.
If he went for it he’d probably be their best bet. But he seems to have ruled himself out, and the “not up to the job” quote would bite him hard when something went wrong.
Johnson’s blatantly superior to Miliband. If Brown’s a grumpy bully whose getting a well-deserved thrashing by Cameron of the Upper Sixth then Miliband is a know-it-all swot.
I don’t think Johnson wants it, but he’d make as good a fist of the job as anyone, given the situation.
[Reposted from previo - oh you know the deal]
362. Your point of view would be interesting if it wasn’t directly opposite to the truth. There was indeed a “conspiracy of lies” regarding Aids - especially with regard to its transmission amongst heterosexuals - AS AIDS CAMPAIGNERS NOW ADMIT.
(I put that in capitals to help you). Do you see my point? I’ll go over it again.
Saying there was no “conspiracy of lies” is a fairly daft remark to make - given the liars who came up with the conspiracy of lies have now admitted that they conspired to lie as part of a conspiracy of lies.
Are you getting it yet? lol.
364. BSE is interesting. I remember going to a dinner party in the early 90s where there was a fairly serious doctor type - a government health consultant or somesuch.
The subject of mad cow came up and he took me aside and he said “you and I know most of these scare stories are rubbish, of course - but” - and his eyes narrowed - “I’m afraid to say this one is true. Millions are going to die of CJD. It’s an absolute nightmare. We don’t know what to do about it - but take my advice, don’t eat beef!”
His words were so chilling I stopped eating beef - for about a week. Then I had a steak and thought f*** it. I’m still waiting for the millions of corpses.
Scientists are just as susceptible to fashionable hysteria as the rest of us, apart from me.
1. Other than that…not much.
There’s a bit of a groundhog day atmosphere developing here, isn’t there? Once again are invited to view all the possible alternative Labour leaders, and then write them off as useless….
brown has got bullish on the oil price.time to take a short position against him,i think.
7 - I’m inclined to think that if there was a plausible alternative he or she would have run last year, you know, when there was a vacancy.
2 - Disgraceful and egregious thread-hijacking, so early into a new continuation thread - I am astonished and disgusted.
(You’ll fit right in on this site…!)
I’ll respond to that article and your thoughts on Obama/Webb later on if I get a chance.
6, little bit harsh. Labour doesn’t have a massive pool of talent but Johnson’s alright. He’s not Balls.
Just imagine if Balls became PM… what would Cameron do with a 500 seat majority?
“… a senior Labour MP has predicted Brown will not be PM at the next General Election.
The insider said: “My reading of the situation is there will definitely be a contest. If that happens, Gordon won’t be in it, he would stand down for the party. A leader shouldn’t need to put themselves forward for re-election and, if it got to that stage, he would stand aside.”
While Scots Labour MPs remain united behind Brown, their colleagues from south of the Border are growing restless. The MP said: “There’s a lot of disquiet among Labour MPs at the moment - huge unrest. There are those in the south-east of England who will be saying ‘My voters don’t like Gordon Brown and that could cost me my seat.’“
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/2008/05/27/prime-minister-faces-rebellion-over-roads-prices-86908-20430715/
So, this is from a “senior” Labour MP. Presumably Scottish. Any suggestions?
10. ‘he’s not Balls’
Hardly a ringing endorsement that, is it? Which rather proves my point….
8 - I’m not sure that’s quite true Neil. Even if there had been a real alternative, there was a strong herd instinct not to rock the boat or disrupt the coronation. If someone suitable and senior knew Brown well enough to see how he would turn out, it would make sense not to run then, and wait for this to happen.
11. Gordon Brown?
Following up on last night’s discussion on the pitiful state of “journalism”, it was both hilarious and frightening to see an article today illustrating my argument better than my words could ever do:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/2041908/John-Bolton-to-be-target-of-citizen%27s-arrest-at-Hay-Festival.html
How can clowns like this have any credibility with anyone?
To get philosophical, I wonder if there is actually an evolutionary mechanism which makes homo sapiens susceptible to dire warnings of apocalypse, even the ludicrous ones.
I guess in the past the guy that believed every potential threat was serious, and took action against it, was more likely to survive than the happy-go-lucky caveman who just said: oh, bollocks, its just a lion.
That might mean credulity is adaptive, particularly with regard to Catastrophic Scenarios. Hence the reason we all keep buying into these End Is Nigh prognostications, despite their being proved constantly wrong.
Put it another way, The End Is Not Nigh just ain’t so boffo, as they say in LA.
7. graham p malpas - “Brown has got bullish on the oil price. Time to take a short position against him, I think.”
“Prime Minister Gordon Brown – writing exclusively for the P&J – outlines what the government is doing about the soaring costs of fuel and energy.”
http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/661210
5 Don’t talk to me as if I were a 10-year old. I am not generally a believer in conspiracy theories and I don’t believe in this one. Clearly you do. we will have to disagree on that.
I saw Alan Johnson on Andrew Marr this week. I have to say I was impressed with his style, if not the substance of what he had to say. For me to be impressed with anyone from Labour takes alot.
He is certainly appears alot more human than Brown and is, as mentioned already, English. He’s the best of a bad bunch
18. lol. Bullseye!
19, pity he didn’t get the deputy job instead of the bigoted harpy.
I’m not sure being English actually matters that much. Balls is English. Either that or a French spy sent to destabilise our economy.
17…whilst oil remains the main source of energy,the price of “alternatives” will be governed by the oil price.
19. Not a PM though, is he? Nice chap to share the time of day with while he hands you the post, but no more than that.
On the subject of BSE, AIDS and scares I’ve just started reading “Scared to Death: From BSE to Global Warming: Why Scares are Costing Us the Earth” by Booker and North which is shaping up well.
14. larf
Well, he does indeed give the strong impression that he hates himself…..
23, I concur with that, but if you have 5 bad options you choose the least bad.
360 from previous thread … So The amount of oxygen has declined 0.0003% in the past 7 years. Shit, better start buying bottles! I’m off to buy a Hummer.
21. Morris Dancer - “I’m not sure being English actually matters that much. Balls is English.”
Being English is a necessary, but not in itself a sufficient, criterion for the post. Eg. Harriet Harperson.
Australia is also part of the “moral panic” that is leading to the moves to outlaw child pornography drawings in the UK, as evidenced here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/may/28/australia.art
13 - If there was an alternative who thought it would be better to let Brown lead for a year and reduce the government to a shambles and then step in, then he or she doesnt sound like much of an alternative to me. There is such a lack of alternatives that Mike was reduced to writing a thread about Tessa Jowell….
[27] - Yes, the decline in oxygen is not in and of itself a problem, it is simply one piece of evidence that the increase in CO2 is due to us burning fossil fuels.
It has sometimes been claimed that this is not the case, so it is an important piece of evidence.
Alan Johnson is a great choice for Labour but they won’t go for him, they seem to be sticking with GB until it is too late to change. I think he would be a good soft landing option for them.
Incidentally I want to know who on Rawnsley’s panel think Labour will win the next election. They must be Labour party members or bonkers.
10 Title Lord Protector?
5: ‘Millions are going to die of CJD.’
Didn’t some Government adviser predict we’d need ‘a mortuary [hospice?] on every street corner’? I’ve tried googling and though the phrase pops up on blogs and in a Boris Johnson article I can find no direct source, so perhaps it’s one of these shared false memory episodes.
11. It’s funny how newspapers never have “junior” contacts?
31 - But in all seriousness (I’m not buying a hummer I like driving smaller cars) it seems that the Carbon argument for global warming must be a stinking pile of poo?
And we’re going to run out of fossil fuels well before we make any significant (0.5% say) change in the atmosphere.
We need greener energy sources because we need ones that won’t run out far more urgently than because it’s warm in winter.
[16] - If anyone living on Easter Island was a prophet of doom and warned the others that they were going to cut down all their trees and suffer an environmental collapse he/she certainly wasn’t listened to and in that case, as in a few others, the collapse came to pass.
Paradoxically, it appears that people are more willing to believe the doom-laden warnings that aren’t true, than the ones that are.
Labour would have a better chance of winning the next election under a different leader. That’s the strong view of the PHI100, Britain’s most authoritative survey of inside and expert political opinion.
That all sounds incredibly impressive doesn’t it?
Except that the man, or indeed woman on the Clapham omnibus, or indeed any other omnibus, would have reached exactly the same conclusion
“Labour would have a better chance of winning the next election under a different leader. That’s the strong view of the PHI100, Britain’s most authoritative survey of inside and expert political opinion.”
This is the inside and expert political opinion who was telling everybody last July that Brown was a political titan, a master strategist and the most able political thinker of his generation? The man who would consign the Tories to opposition for a century, while making the LibDems irrelevant and reclaiming Scotland for the Socialists? The man whose every utterance combined the course of Churchill with the tenacity of Margaret Thatcher and the statesman-like gravitas of Thomas Jefferson?
Sorry for the heavily ironical post, but, as Lord Salisbury said, no lesson is better inculcated by life than that one should never trust experts.
37. What possible evidence do you have for that last remark?
39. A large proportion of so-called experts are simply people who parrot conventional wisdom on any given topic. Genuine experts are few and far between, and rarely heard in the media.
If you think that the array of candidates to replace Gordon Brown is piss-poor then you ought to take a look at the wasteland facing the Scottish Labour Party when it must replace Wendy “10-out-of-10″ Alexander in the autumn.
- Baron von Foulkes?
- Jackie “the Hutt” Baillie?
- Margaret “acid” Curran?
In comparison, someone like Alan Johnson begins to look like a dignified veteran statesman.
[36] - What is “significant” depends on how it affects the radiation balance. What matters there is not just the concentration in the atmosphere, but the specific physics of the gas in question.
In this case, doubling the level of CO2, from ~275ppm to ~550ppm, will result in a heating of 4Wm-2, which in turn will result in about 3C of warming (the uncertainty in clouds gives a range of ~2-4).
3C is sufficient to melt the Greenland ice sheet, ultimately flooding all coastal cities and river deltas, with vast consequences.
Presently, other greenhouse gases (such as methane, nitrous oxides and CFCs), add about the same amount of warming as CO2. If that were to continue, and you had warming of 6C, then you would easily melt the glaciers that feed the rivers of India and China, putting the irrigated food supply of billions into water deficit.
[40] - I was thinking of the drop in MMR vaccination rates that lead to some outbreaks of measles a few years ago, the vitriol with which mobile phone masts were met, etc. By “appears” I spoke only of my personal experience.
One thing that would stand in Johnson’s way, would be his declaration that he does not have the “capabilities”, and he could not go to the next level. I can already imagine his first Pmq’s, several questions about that statement, and what would he answer? Would be a good slongan for the Conservatives too…
43. However, Siberia would become cultivatable, Canada would be paradise, and my bloody lights wouldn’t be on at 4pm in late May.
Swings and roundabouts, swings and roundabouts.
Rethe Question : Yes.
He’s human, seems honest and since, imperfect and vulnerable and totally unprententious.
A normal Joe
(Shouldn’t have told fibs about retaining post offices back in the late 90’s though !)
Regards to all,
TB
The PHI100 experts were pretty evenly split about C & N about a week out. Meanwhile, the punting community were making the Tories about 1/5.
44. So no real evidence whatsoever then. Tsk!
290. (From last thread) Chris, yes very bad. I actually backed Nicolas Almagro each way at 100/1 this morning and he’s in Nadal’s half of the draw. I think he’s in great shape and serving tremendously well. I know Nadal is heavy favourite, but not even Kuerten in his heyday could win 4 in a row.
I remember a few years ago when Marcelo Rios started the French Open as odds on and many were amazed when he didn’t win. As you know it’s the hardest grand slam to win and physically gruelling - all it would take is for Nadal to get in the third set of a match and then it’s game.
As for today I thought Fabrice Santoro and Mardy Fish both played well and got good results.
43. In all seriousness, for a cogent and lucid insight into the possible benefits of global warming, see this brilliant essay, by me:
http://tinyurl.com/6ytzw2
[46] - The Chinese and Indians might not see it that way. If countries feel they are hard done by the “swings and roundabouts” they may try to take back from more “fortunate” countries what was taken from them by climate change. Potentially very nasty.
There are more factors than temperature governing whether somewhere is cultivable, you have to also consider the quality of the soil and the reliability of the rainfall. I’ve no idea how good those would be in Canada and Russia, but I do know that we can feed the world with the climate as it is.
Bit of a jump in the dark, no?
47
Rethe Question : Yes.
“He’s human, seems honest and since(re), imperfect and vulnerable and totally unprententious”
You mean the opposite of Gordon!
I see I was attacked on the last thread by several posters. Please SeanT, could you possibly post me an example of my “hysterical ranting”? I know I may not be as neutral and unemotional as your even-handed posts, but I’d still like an example.
I can’t be bothered to respond with detailed to posts on this topic any boring, because we’ve gone over the same arguments several times. But it is worth noting that it’s invariably strongly right-wing posters, linking right-wing blogs or articles from right-wing newspapers, who in turn use figures from outfits with funding from the oil/car/other polluting industries (or simply don’t declare their funding). They also massively confuse the line between the scientific institutions and the lobby groups. The latter regularly go to far, and people like SeanT like to blame the faults of the latter for discrediting the former. When someone rebuts their claims, they suddenly resort to the same calls as the creationists and nicotine lobby - “help! help! you’re denying free speech!”
Afternoon all
Good to be back on here after a week or so on me hols. Mrs Stodge and I visited Jersey last week. Doesn’t look as though we missed anything of great interest on here
http://aloadofoldstodge.blogspot.com/2008/05/jersey-jottings.html
On slightly more substantive matters, while we watch the tedious denouement of the Government (performance should end June 2010), thoughts turn as to what we might expect from the next Government.
Clearly, it won’t be a pretty financial inheritance but if Osborne is going to commit to matching projected spending on education and health as well as finding money for the armed services, police, prison and “homeland security”, I just can’t see how he can do this without either raising taxes or cutting public spending in real terms.
In a growing economy, you can reduce the level of spending as a share of GDP and increase it in real terms. IF, however, the economy is hardly growing or even contracting, it becomes really hard to get back to that 40% GDP level so prized among fiscal conservatives.
Let’s then look at fuel duty - according to Peter Ould’s site, when fuel was 110p per litre, the Government took 50.35p in duty and a further 16.38p in VAT making 66.73p in every litre. Now, reading back to 2000, I note that back then a penny in fuel duty was supposed to raise £420m so that would make a take of some £28bn from fuel duty (including VAT).
For a Government, existing or incoming, struggling to fund spending commitments (promised or actual), the option of dropping fuel duty by say 5-10p may look attractive but the cost is considerable (say £4bn which could be used to repay debt).
I yield to no one in my condemnation of how Gordon Brown has mismanaged public finance. However, I am equally unconvinced Osborne will do any better especially if he is committed to changes in inheritance tax and stamp duty. I’m at least glad to see they’ve resisted the urge to ride the populist tiger on fuel duty but then of course who introduced the fuel duty escalator ?
54. “…any more as its boring,”
54. I don’t normally pick people up on their grammar, but -
“I can’t be bothered to respond with detailed to posts on this topic any boring,”
was oddly touching in its earnest befuddlement.
[51] - I acknowledge that there will be positive benefits as a result of global warming. Indeed, you might say that a warmer climate would be objectively more optimal for our existence on the planet.
The main problem with such a viewpoint is that human society has already adapted to living on the planet, and within the climate, as it already exists, and adapting is likely to be very difficult and expensive.
To pick one problem alone, a country like Bangladesh is going to be a source of tens of millions of immigrants to other countries, if sea levels rise. Canada and Russia would be obvious destinations, given their newly “cultivable” land and “paradise” conditions, but the historical record of large-scale migrations is not a happy one.
I think we make life easier for ourselves if we just avoid flooding places where millions of people already live.
47 Tory Boy. “Imperfect and vulnerable and totally unpretentious”. Is that really what the country needs as a dynamic leader? Suggest you compare Thatcher(whatever your views of her) and Major and think again - especially with a possible economic disaster ahead.
58. Who needs Bangladesh? Give ‘em speedos.
57. I really need to start rereading my posts before clicking submit.
55
I agree. Whomever wins the next GE will have a MAJOR tax and spend problem. Of course it will happen sooner as well..
Why do you think the Conservatives are so quiet on economic policy?
Answer: to have as few hostages to fortune as possible.
Re: 51 - Unfortunately, sean, we now have six billion human beings on the planet so talk of “dislocation” is perhaps an understatement.
The other issue is the rate of change - were this process to happen over three or four hundred years, planning and adaptation and human ingenuity would alleviate most of the problems but it is the rate of change that makes it difficult for the eco-system to adapt.
Yes, global temperatures have paused in the past decade or so and some claim we will move into a cooler phase from 2012 onward but if warming were to accelerate, it would seem foolish to future generations were we to have simply wasted this period of relative stability or abused it, like David Roe, by going out to buy a hummer - why would anyone want one ?
On thread, I think Johnson would be unlikely to stand against Purnell or Miliband, however I think he’d make a better PM and would win more seats than the others. I get a sense that the younger guys are hungrier too. I think a year ago within the leadership union movement Johnson had become a bit of a pariah - a poacher turned gamekeeper. However particularly since being Health Secretary a number of them have revised their opinions of him and he was very popular with Unison.
There’s no doubt he’s on the centre-right of the party and is more Blairite that Brownite. However politics is increasingly about an ability to understand issues people face and an ability to communicate well. That’s where he does well in my book. However this softer side of him has also resulted in him frankly saying that he doesn’t think he’s up to the top job on national radio in an Estelle Morris type confession. I know that he considered standing against Brown last year and that Blair would have backed him. But he bottled it. It was only then that David Miliband started getting talked up. Since then he’s not quite been able to regain that sense of insurgency.
What I also saw in the deputy leadership contest was someone who didn’t actually run a particularly efficient campaign and who lost interest half way through, perhaps when he realised that he was not running for the DPM job. He really should have won that contest at a canter. However his wobbling over whether to run for the top job gave Hain, Cruddas and Harman a clear run for several months. Harman’s clear start ultimately provoked Hazel Blears into standing who took away focus and resources from Johnson’s campaign. So I think he has form for dithering a little too.
So in a nutshell if Brown resigned in autumn and if Johnson stood he would be up there with the favourites. However I’ve not seen any sign that he will stand, so he’s a very likely non-runner.
24 Oh dear! Sounds like more conspiracy theories!
I think Alan Johnson is an interesting prospect - he certainly acts like a human being, good communitor, looks abit like Bill Clinton (Does Alan smoke cigers?
) but i think his time was a year ago and not now. Johnson has also said he is not cut out to be PM! Fair comment - I don’t think that most of the occupants have really! 
Especially the guy who is PM at the moment. Brown probably ranks in the realms of one of the worst PM’s of the last 150 years. Talk about squandering political capital and good faith!!! 
I would say the Brown as a PM is on a par with Gavin Strang’s rumoured rating as a mininster! 
One civil servant is alleged to have said he was F***ing useless! Nowonder Gavin lasted about 12 months! 
Did he beat the Badger Baiter though in longevity?
58. In all seriousness, isn’t Bangladesh already a bit of a lowlying waterlogged disaster? A friend of mine went there and said it was “horrid”. Would it be such a shame if we just gave up on the place and turned it into a nice wetland with spoonbills?
All the locals could move to Kamchatka.
Adapt and survive, adapt and survive. That’s how humanity evolved from being trilobites. It’s a good thing.
Re: 62 - I agree, madasafish, but as a voter, I think I’m entitled to ask searching questions of the Conservative Party in opposition and to expect some reasonable answers.
We are in a new economic reality and I still don’t think anyone has truly grasped what the end of cheap fuel, cheap raw materials and cheap credit really means.
2 - I think of Webb more as bringing the poor southern white vote to Obama, nothing to do with foreign affairs where Obama has positions which reflect much of the current American mood.
8.”7 - I’m inclined to think that if there was a plausible alternative he or she would have run last year, you know, when there was a vacancy”
Neil, you would think so, but the Labour party don’t work that way these days. In the end Gordon Brown with the collusion of the PLP made sure that a good old fashioned leadership contest full of debate was not going to be an attractive enough option for the other candidates. And lets face it, they were also going to be able to do it while Blair worked out his notice, you don’t get a better opportunity than that when your are actually in power. Well we will never know if a strong viable candidate could have outshone Brown.
11.Stuart, how blinkered the Scottish Labour MP’s are. I think that one of Brown’s most amazing achievements to date has been to become even more unpopular than Blair in Scotland, even at the height of the Iraq war.
67. Let’s Nuclear bomb them! We could nuclear bomb the ice caps as well to speed global warming up!
58. How are all these very poor Bangladeshis going to get to Canada or Russia? Walk? Swim?
As far as Labour’s dismal fortunes go there are just three types of hope: no hope, Bob Hope, and envelope.
They’re doomed I tell ye.
66. I think we pretty much agree there Martin. Though you used less sentences and more smileys
67, Bangladesh has been flooded all the damn time for years and years.
There may be a case for man having an impact on the climate, but misrepresentation, exaggeration and deceit by the greens does their own case no favours.
ITV, some time ago, used satellite images of lakes drying up as proof of global warming. Only problem was, one of themw as the Aral Sea, which had been drying up for decades following incompetent Soviet attempts to irrigate Kazkhstan for growing cotton.
73-LOL voxpop!
72. Why not just have a mass cull of the people from those countries, it would mean more resources for those of is left on the Greenland plain!
2. You have made me research Jim Webb even more. I notice he was Secretary of the Navy for only one year - he got sacked after Reagan wanted him to reduce the size of the navy, and he refused. Plus he was only an assistant defence secretary for three years. So he has less experience than first appears (if you discount his time in the military). That article also points out his strength was in the coastal regions of Virginia, and he failed to perform inland, which weakens the idea he would be strong in the rest of the Appalachians.
Still he does have advantages. His sober manner and tell-it-like-it-is style could help with people that don’t think much of Obama’s showiness and eloquence - and putting a guy who would be cast so quickly by the media as the “Scots-Irish blue collar guy” would help with those who think the Democratic party is a collection of special interests for ethnic minorities.
Still, I think Warner would be equally helpful, and more of an asset in the Whitehouse.
67. It’s only 150m people. Perhaps the migration could be as structured and orderly as the population exchange during the Indian partition.
79. Hardly our problem though, is it?
17.Wonder how this little gem will go down with the good people of Aberdeen involved in the Oil industry. God, Brown must think that we all have no short term memories up here.
“With greater transparency on both sides, oil producers and consumers should gain a better understanding of medium and long-term trends in supply and demand and how they might affect the price of oil not just in the future but today. Just as we are examining how we can maximise the recovery of oil from the mature North Sea oil fields, so all oil producers should re-examine whether the barriers that exist to strategic investments should be broken down.”
42.
But I still think that anyone of the three could make a better job of it than Wendy Alexander is doing at the moment.
80. It is if we’ve caused it.
80. SeanT could start a new business venture where he sells safri trips to those countries to hunt the population down. Each person on the trip gets 5,000 rounds of ammunition!
83. Will that be rifles or machine guns?
78- As you’ve pointed out through your fact-finding, the more you look at Webb, the less sense he makes as a VP choice. A “tell-it-like-it-is” style is rarely helpful in a VP candidate, who is expected to be a faithful follower of the leader more than anything else, certainly not upstaging the leader through bold, independent statements.
I think you don’t give Warner enough credit, though. You say he would be equally helpful in the campaign, but I think he’d be vastly better. He has that undefinable quality that connects well with voters, and Webb lacks it. Webb has become a favorite of the chattering classes, but there is no evidence that the electorate has adopted, or will adopt, a similar view.
At last, an interesting Veep poll.
Michigan, headline figure is that McCain leads Obama by four. Obama would like Michigan but, as with Florida, the lack of a primary has screwed things up. He needs to start ratcheting up the campaign there.
Anyway, more interesting is the Veep match-ups against Romney including Clinton, Webb, Gore and so on. The result is that Edwards still comes out best, the only person who helps Obama increase his vote. Not sure why they chose Romney, Huckabee might do better.
Webb doesn’t look good (oh well), here are the totals with the effect on Obama’s vote.
Edwards +1
Gore -1
Clinton -1
Richardson -10
Clark -11
Sebelius -12
Rendell -13
Biden -14
Kaine -15
Webb -15
I know there is name recognition but I think Edwards looks as though he may have it.
86 - Forgot the link, it’s Surevy USA who, along with Rasmussen, are proving to be the most reliable pollsters.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=52d98ca6-6c14-4f4a-9180-4e7f1fce8a1a
70. ChrisD - “I think that one of Brown’s most amazing achievements to date has been to become even more unpopular than Blair in Scotland, even at the height of the Iraq war.”
I totally agree.
I will ‘fess up here: I was really rather concerned about Brown becoming PM. I genuinely thought that the Scottish Labour Party would receive a significant electoral bonus from PM Brown (especially in comparison to PM Blair), largely at the expense of the SNP. How wrong I was!
86- Wow, my fingers hadn’t yet cooled from typing my previous post, when yours came along to add to the argument. I just don’t think Webb would help, and this poll certainly doesn’t contradict my position.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=52d98ca6-6c14-4f4a-9180-4e7f1fce8a1a
New SUSA poll for Michigan with VP candidates. Without McCain beats Obama 41-37, a very high number of undecideds. Romney has a big positive effect for McCain, Edwards is again best for Obama.
However a note on these VP polls. I don’t trust them and I don’t think they can be relied upon for analysis. There is the obvious issue of name recognition but there is a further problem. These results are all from the same sample. People will be continually be asked the same question over and over. To my mind this is likely to lead them to answer in terms of their views on the VP rather than the ticket and is unlikely to be a considered view. Ultimately I don’t expect the VP candidates to have a significant effect on the tickets. These polls may provide some indications but overall aren’t very good guides IMHO.
New SUSA Presidential Poll for Michigan :
McCain 41% .. Obama 37%
Note - SUSA Sample 13% AA Split O-62/M-26. Actual 15%.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=52d98ca6-6c14-4f4a-9180-4e7f1fce8a1a
O/T
2 Labour MPs won’t stand next time..
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2008/05/another-labou-1.html
90 Kieran.
53 Quite so !
92. I thought Glenda was steping down at the last election! Or is she going to do a last stand like last of the mohicans?
90 - Only 23 weeks to go, can Obama afford to have a less well known running mate, especially given his own need to get people to know the truth about his own background?
59 The question was who is Labour’s best hope (not whether he will make a great leader for the Country)
Until 49 million years ago the Earth was in a Greenhouse phase - then it switched to an Icehouse phase which we are still in.
It is claimed that the main driver of this was the Azolla event, when a freshwater fern (Azolla) grew across the then warm Arctic Ocean and reduced CO2 from 6500 ppm to 650 ppm over 800,000 years, with further reductions to below 300 ppm over time setting scene for ice ages. Shows the strength of ecologically driven changes.
De-forestation is currently around 20% cause of CO2/methane increase annually - and would result also in the fall in oxygen David Roe is concerned about (though even with the lower vegetative cover today all the atmospheric oxygen would be replenished over 2000 years - oxygen is always being lost and needs replenishment).
So we need to create a smaller more manageable Azolla event, either through re-forestation or something more like Azolla with sequestration of the resultant organic growth at bottom of the oceans.
86/7 - Beat me to it!
They likely chose Romney because his father was Governor of the state and he grew up here. Looking at the results it is clear that name recognition is vitally important. The national figures are within the MOE and the non-national figures are within the MOE.
Also SUSA have been good in parts but also had their blindspots. They had Clinton winning MO comfortably and Obama sneaked it. In NC they had Obama winning in the single digits.
92 - Jack, see 86/87.
Beat you at last.
87 ukpaul. SUSA in second place, although their Oregon was a bit out !! Latest pollster rating issued today :
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
92. I think their are a whole load of seats the tories will gain at the next election that even on redrawn boundries they are nominally Labour such as one of the Northampton seats (South?) that will be Tory even if it is a much closer election than presently seems to be the case.
Gordon Brown’s performance just goes from bad to worse. Even the BBC are finding it impossible to present his much-hyped trip to Aberdeen today as anything other than an empty, headline-grabbing, publicity stunt. Some of his own ministers have given up trying to persuade us that the PM is anything other than an incompetent, useless clown. How much longer do we have to put up with him?
99 - Ah, right. I thought there might be some connection with Romney which made them elevate him over the others.
Elsewhere Romney looks like electoral poison though so am unconvinced as to the usefulness of putting just him in the poll here.
92. cluck cluck cluck…when is the Broxtowe announcement coming?
105 Harry my puppy, you’re supposed to go woof woof woof !!
96 - Yes. The qualities of the VP are far more important. These polls are like primary polls taken 6/8 months ago that had Clinton miles ahead.
Moreover as I say I think asking people about a series of match-ups one after the other is unreliable. That is largely a hunch but there you go.
I really don’t think Obama will choose his VP on the basis of these polls. Look at Cheney. I doubt many polls had him adding to the ticket in 2000.
99- IMO, state-by-state polls are fairly inaccurate, and are generally only useful when several of them can be averaged together or strung together in succession to show a trend. Even national polls are often badly skewed. In 1996, the polls consistently showed Clinton beating Dole by 15-20 points, when in fact Clinton won by 8.
96 - Just to emphasise, I’m not saying that this information is meaningless, I’m just saying I don’t think it should be taken as Gospel either.
O/T But Bradford and Bingley tanking again today. Their rights issue is now virtually worthless to the small investor (underwriters are going to take a kicking). If the Nationwide house data (out tomorrow) is bad they could be in the big brown.
Another bail out or a sale on the cheap - how many Labour MPs in Bradford ?
99/100 kieran/ukpaul. The frustrating aspect of the US polling is some of the pollsters vary from excellent to awful within a few weeks. PPP (Piss Poor Polling) for instance - absolute pants in Ohio and spot on in Indiana and North Carolina.
Also the turnout filter of too many pollsters is crap for AA. Simple mistakes but they keep making them.
Just had a quick look at the cross tabs of the SUSA poll. It has the Obama/Siebelius ticket beating the McCain/Romney tickets by only 44-29 among Black voters. That is ridiculuous. We all know Obama will likely win the Black vote 90-10 whatever the ticket is.
104. Romney also promised them federal subsidies.
These veep polls do seem to be virtually entirely down to name recognition.
85 - I think Warner is a stunningly good candidate, and a was a little surprised that he did not emerge as the main challenger to Hillary (I must confess that back in 2005, I was nowhere near as far-sighted as Mike and the rest in getting 50-1). I am convinced that he will make a run in 8 years.
Webb bothers me. I see the attraction, but I don’t know that I’d trust him on the campaign trail, let alone in executive office. The guy seems single-minded, indefatiguable, and I can imagine he fights hard for his constituents (both Virginians and the military) - I’m just not sure that I’d feel safer with his energy powering away in the Senate rather than having Executive responsibility for a department or (if tragedy happened) the Presidency.
Virginia Democrats are riding high at the moment. They have a very strong Governor, and will have two high profile US Senators after November. If the Democrats are going to make inroads into the south, then it starts in VA and I wouldn’t risk either of those safe Senate seats by pulling away the candiadte to be Obama’s VP when there is clearly no shortage of talent elsewhere.
I think Obama could go one of two ways with the VP. Any candidate has to meet the golden rules (do no harm; complementary skillset to, but differentiated from, the nominee; swing state or demographic shifter etc etc) but there are two types of candidate who fit this bill.
On the one hand, Obama could choose one of the older guard - an experienced hand to allay fears (with the risk that it just highlights them). That candidate would not become President in 8 years, probably through age. Think Rendell, Strickland or Clarke.
Conversely, he could go with someone younger of moderate experience and leave an incumbant to follow him in (hopefully for him) 8 years. Sibellius, Edwards, or Harold Ford Jr.
The other option is to find someone who is both perfect now, but will also be viable to become President in 8 years’ time. I don’t consider Webb to either experienced enough (really) or a potential President in 8 years. For me, this category is all about Richardson or Warner or Bayh.
I think it should be one of the third group, and having given my reasons I think Warner should stay in Virginia, I think Richardson would be better than Bayh on both experience, character and electoral math.
Plenty of people seem to think 2 minorities is too much - I wonder how people who object to 2 minorities wouldn’t also object to Obama on his own. In short, I think those people would be massively outweighed by additional Hispanic turnout, and Richardson probably appeals to blue collar men as much as many politicians, so its not like he would be a drag on the ticket.
Any thoughts?
105. It’s funny you should say that: I noticed Nick was absent from his departments questions the other day! Hope i did not put him off because i said you could see the PPS members moving behind the minister?
Probably just busy with meeting and whatever Labour MP’s do!
I noticed he has upgraded his wiki. page - well i am assuming it is him! It’s not in Nick’s interest just to step down - you never know if the election is a slight tory victory Nick might make a comeback!
He is a bit unlucky in that his opponent is a TV newsreader or something like that. It would probably deplete some of the incumbacy bonus!
111 - That is doen to regional variation I think to a degree. Polling Oregon is quiet different to NC. There are huge demographic challenges. That is why as you know it is often important to look out for good local pollsters like Selzer in Iowa.
On turnout. As I’ve commented before SUSA has a liberal approach to demographic weighting i.e. they let the data do the work rather than impose models. That has worked for them some times and not at others. An interesting point SUSA and Rasmussen to robo-calling rather than live calls. It is cheaper allowing more frequent polling. Is there any chance this could be done here? I suppose there may be problems with TPS though.
110. All three and there is Shipley as well which has a Tory incumbant but i think goes nominally to Labour on new boundaries!
111/112- There are just too many obviously bad polls to have much faith in any of them taken individually. Although Smithson’s Rule of believing the best Tory poll would have worked splendidly in the 1996 presidential election, when only Zogby got it right (his poll was the most favorable for Dole).
117 - *down*
Romney wins Michigan for the GOP in the same way as Hillary would probably help Obama take Florida. You get a big swing state through rather tenous geographical links, but the effect on the narrative and the national swing is much more important.
79 It is. Where do you think they’d want to relocate to?
Johnson = NO
No charisma for TV even if he is good 121 (as allegedly he is)
Not strategic enough (a core Blair competance, a manifest Brown failing)
Signed up, if only be default, to many things that need ditching (42 days, ID cards)
115 Then he should pick Kaine. Just as popular as Warner and Webb. Gives fair crack at Virgini and no Senate seat to worry about. Executive experience would look good as well.
112 Kieran. The AA is the first cross tab I check mainly because they are getting it wrong so often. Obama has and will poll around 9/1 in a turnout ratio of 150%. It’s one of the few constants in the contests presently.
110. 118. But west Yorkshire as a whole has tons of Labour MP’s! Though B & B does not strike me as being like the Northeast in terms of the penetration of the market. Remember their is HBOS and the Leeds as well as some smaller piss ant building societies.
121 - Would he though? McCain/Romney does worse against Obama/Edwards than McCain does on his own against Obama.
Edwards showed in 2004 that VPs are not guarenteed to carry their home state and in any case there are more important reasons to choose a VP.
Sean, out of curiosity, is your opposition to the AGW position more rooted in a natural response to the vision of cardigan clad, earnest beardy-weirdies solemnly pontificating that sea levels will rise a hundred metres in our lifetimes and the only answer is to immediately abandon air travel and car travel, relying on cycle-rickshaws for transport and eating only organically home-grown brussel sprouts whilst spinning thread for our own clothes, jetisonning all of the pleasures of civilization and spending the next ten generations watching the waters rise whilst intoning an Aologetic Catechism repudiating globalism and free markets?
Because I can agree that some on the loonier fringes of the capitalism-is-evil-get-back-to-blissful-simplicity ultra-green brigade have definitely overplayed the (real) issues to try to sell their version of Utopia. They often dislike the fact that the available IPCC extrapolations point to scientific enterprise and globalisation being eseential to minimise the effects.
Further, impact on economies pretty much has to be kept to the minimum that it can be - because if and when we do have to deal with the effects (such as mass migrations) it’s a hell of a lot easier when you’re rich than when you’re poor.
Rather than rejecting the proposition because of the loony fringe that try to oversell it, do something a lot meaner to them.
Take their toy away from them. Agree that the problem is major. And that we can’t afford to hesitate in increasing globalisation, taking sensible environmental steps that don’t wound the economy (there are many, often providing excellent opportunities for businesses) and pressing for new technological solutions.
Most of the looniest fringe* hate all of that (preaching localisation, measures that downright cripple economies and abnegation of many technological solutions, scoffing that “science won’t save us”). But such a stance hasn’t got a leg to stand on.
*Note - I haven’t encountered any of this loony fringe actually on pbc, but they’re common elsewhere, and my impression (which may be mistaken, to be sure) is that you (and many on that side of the argument) are subconciously arguing with them.
125 - Sure, but my point is that SUSA have a set methodology. If they change it to ensure AAs are represented they have to fundamentally alter their method. SUSA may have a structural bias against Obama because of this, however they will likely pick up other changes in differential turnout more quickly than pollsters who use a formula. The good thing with SUSA is they are so open with their data which allows us to refine their results according to our interpretations.
126. 2,800 employees. I wonder how the members who got £5k in 2000 will feel about them being worth feck all.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradford_and_Bingley
I think this is the telling lines..
Bradford & Bingley reverted to selling only their own mortgages under the Mortgage Express and Bradford & Bingley brands.
In addition, Bradford & Bingley acquires mortgages from GMAC-FRC and Kensington Mortgage Group Ltd, this accounted for 35% of gross residential advances in H1 2007.
Bradford & Bingley have developed Mortgage Express into a ‘niche’ lending brand dealing with specialist lending with more complicated underwriting requirements such as Buy to Let and Self Certification mortgages.
Mortgage Express has been the largest Buy to Let mortgage provider by balances outstanding since 2001 when the Council of Mortgage Lenders started tracking the market.
Oh dear - I wonder if Darling will claim their mortgage book is “prime” like NRK ??
127 - Sorry, when I posted that I realised it didn’t say what I meant it to. He would help in Michigan in the same way Hillary would help in Florida, but neither would swing just on that basis.
88.Stuart, I honestly thought the opposite which is why it annoyed me so much that his Scottishness was emphasised all the time. I did not think that Brown had what it took to be a good PM, I don’t think his place of birth was going to gloss over that fact in Scotland, anymore than I thought it would hurt him down South if he had developed into a decent one.
115. I think the risk of losing a Senate seat is worth a significant boost in the Presidential race - not least because a sizable Presidential win could well cause more than one GOP Senator to turn over. (”Reagan Democrats” referred to these congressmen as much as the voter profile.)
I believe Rendell is overrated. He’s a nice guy, but he’s not anything special, and I don’t see what he really brings to the ticket, other than being the token Clintonite. Strickland fulfils all the same elements and is far more talented - and has a better record. I assume the last one you’re talking about is Wes Clark. His absolute lack of political experience makes him a very unlikely choice in my mind.
Edwards clearly has a lot of strengths, and should be considered one of the favourites. But he does lay open the charge already levelled at Obama that they are on the far left of American politics, and makes the ticket more easily pigeon-holed. Bayh was pro-war and is a scheming triangulator - I can’t see Obama liking the bloke, and it counters his main platform (plus he would infuriate the roots). Richardson and Ford both suffer from the double-minority ticket issue, which I really do feel would be a widescale problem among those that are suspicious of minorities but personally like Obama.
130. Problem is another bank/building society going under or being nationilised is going to batter any confidence the UK had about its economy. Everything seems to be going wrong at the same time: fuel price spike, currency problems, food inflation, morgage market retrenchment, house price fall etc.
134. Especially when its book is full of “liar loans” …
110. I don’t think B and B has the kind of regional resonance in West Yorkshire as NR does in the North East. They have profoundly different senses of regional identity. However 54 of West Yorkshires 56 MP’s are Labour and its chock full of marginals.
132. Brown’s scottishness is a small factor - Alex Salmond comes across alright and he is Scottish!
I bet he would by you a pint if you gave him the money for it! 
No, the real reason Brown is hated is because he does not come across as a man of the people - even his forays into football etc have looked manipulated.
Cons to choose Henley candidate on Friday. Shortlist of 3…
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23487771-details/Widow+farmer+is+tipped+to+succeed+Boris+as+Henley+MP/article.do
124 - But if he picks Kaine then the Republicans will get the Governorship of Virginia, the LG is one. This would then give him the advantage of incumbency to run in 2009.
Although I’m not sure if he could maybe somebody can help me out on this. Virginia has a one term at a time rule for Governors but I would assume if someone served less than half-a-term they could re-run (similar to the Presidency rule) however this might not be the case.
137. That’s what i was trying to say but you put it better!
I note Brent Crude has fallen nearly $5 today to a tad over $125 a barrel. On that basis, we should day petrol prices easing 2-3p per litre in the next few days - come on, supermarkets and oil companies, who will be the first to send the price back down ??
As prices fall, that of course puts more pressure on Brown & Darling to match that decrease in terms of duty so if the oil companies drop 5p off a litre then the Government could do something similar and petrol would be back to around £1 a litre.
It’s a thought…
115 Morus, of all the names you’ve put forward, I see the most likely choices as, in descending order, Richardson, Warner, and then Edwards or Bayh. I think Warner would be the best choice by far, but he might be content to maintain his run for the Senate this time around (unfortunately for him, he would basically have to choose one or the other; running for both would be possible but quite risky).
I don’t think Kaine makes much sense because he has the same inexperience weaknesses as Obama.
Even though I think Richardson is an excellent choice, I do hesitate about the issue, which you raise, of having two ethnic minorities on the same ticket. Your point of “whoever won’t vote for two minorities won’t vote for one either” is fair, but there is a real risk of people translating “TWO minorities” into “very left-wing”, whereas having one standard WASP male on the ticket, even a very left-wing one, would give tacit reassurance to some that “my interests will be considered by this administration too”.
I have long been highly impressed with Bayh, who has loads of credentials and experience at both the state and national level, and comes across very well, even if a bit boring. He can appeal both to standard Democrats and centrists, which Obama needs to win. Unfortunately for him, he picked the wrong horse in the race and would have to first