“It’s the economy…..”
May 29th, 2008-
A guest article from Cityunslicker
Even as the rumours of an imminent challenge to our glorious Prime Minister fade, there is still a good chance of an election before May 2010 - no doubt Tory central office is preparing for this and, hidden from view, may even be preparing a manifesto. The mantra ‘It’s the Economy, Stupid’ is going to hold firm for the next year or two as the UK economic situation worsens, recession or no recession.
But the real hard choice for the Conservatives is what to offer the electorate. The party faithful expect tax cuts and indeed with the burden of taxes at a historically high-level and growing public dissatisfaction with the Government spending splurge, they will think they have a point. However, remember 1979 and Margaret Thatcher, taxes had to go up in the first term - they did under the 1992/7 Tory government too. A ruined economy needs sorting by whoever is in power.
The economic inheritance from Brown and Darling is likely to be a poisoned one. The official government PSBR is not too bad, but this is from a time of plenty. With tax income due to fall as profits disappear from banks and the services sector, this situation will get worse. The benefits claims will surely increase with higher unemployment. Stamp duty revenues will fall along with the slowing housing market. The huge PFI debt will also begin to weigh more heavily, as will over time the cost of gold-plated public sector pensions as more civil servants start to retire.
Overall, if anything taxes may need to rise unless we have massive spending cuts. Can the Tories campaign on this platform - the truth is they have no other choice, but will they say it? Also what can Labour do in the face of the same problem, promise a Tory-lite or ignore economic sense and retreat to a socialist utopia? And even the Lib Dems need to come up with some ideas.
How honest can politicians be, and how much would electoral dishonesty hamstring the next Government to the point at which it became a one-term wonder?
The author runs the Capitalists@work site.
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All about getting rid of Labour to save Britain!
Ave it economic solution:
1. Increase personal allowances to £10,000pa each
2. Increase vat to 20% (no extension of scope)
3. Slash state benefits
4. abolish stamp duty on housing
5. Ave it!!!!!!!!!!!!
1. Make 4. “scrap IHT” and I’m with you.
1,2. IHT is an excellent tax. At a £500k threshold it would be eminently fair. Even Hayek believed that it was desirable for the state to equalize inheritances somewhat.
2 not so worried about scrapping IHT as that doesnt really help working class coming from poorer backgrounds (and seeking to move forward) which is whom i seek to help but 4 out of 5 aint bad! (as meat loaf nearly said once!)
3 agree with you on that call
1, all state benefits?
This article just reads like an ordinary Tory supporter’s post to be honest.
Abolish all state benefits, ‘tax credits’, income tax and national insurance.
Replacing the whole lot with one single, simple and flat rate “negative income tax” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_income_tax
adopt the old liberal idea of “negative income tax” and rid the public payroll of the much of the benefits’ staff taking with one hand and giving back with the other….and a flat rate of income tax too!
To be honest I think Cameron can say or do whatever he likes short of mandatory slaughter of first borns. It’s all about punishing the government at the moment.
I imagine he’ll stick to his current guns about keeping tax take roughly the same. Then suffer thousands of conservatives whinging that he’s not a secret tax cutter.
I also have a factual question, re the level of taxation. Surely tax is lower than the days of Wilson top tax rate is now 40% didn’t it used to be closer to 80%?
The problem as the OP identifies is that whilst we can sit here and fanatises about which tax we will scrap and just how big a personal allowance we would like the reality is going to be somewhat different. There is likely to be very little growth in the immediate future so few proceeds to share. The tax take is likely to fall unless rates rise which will have a disincentivising effect in any case. Coupled with that as unemployment is likely to increase moderately into the downturn then the cost of that will fall on the DWP with higher welfare payments so the yawning gap between government income and expenditure is going to increase. Whoever is in power is going to have to rely on a combination of increasing taxes, cutting expenditure and trusting to luck. It is a pretty toxic brew.
8..we must have been writing simultaneously!
Well the Germans did what you would expect:
raised taxes.
raised retiral age for civil servants/teachers, the lot
and cut back on benefits.
I see no real alternative in the UK to the above measures.
I expect the pair of Scottish incompetents nominally resposnible for the Treasury (PM and Chancellor) to HAVE to raise taxes in 20009 due to the ballooning budget deficit. Maybe they’ll cut spending? Pigs will go to Mars first.
10. Yeah, but the threshold is (relatively) much lower than it used to be.
I read somewhere that in the early 1960s, the average male worker paid just 8% of his income in (income) tax. Now, of course, it’s at least double that.
10 Top tax rates under Wilson were iirc 80% plus 15% for unearned income = 95%
One more question: Surely tax take on some government income is increasing? Fuel for example? And the profits from the North Sea Oil? Obviously not enough to offset the falls in other forms of tax take. How much will this effect the governments deficit?
Time to make a dent into the £ 100 billion spent on quangos,such as British Zoos forum, potato council,Culture East Midlands,West Northants development corporation,Covent Garden marketing authority,Home grown cerealsauthority,Bristish wool marketing
Board etc.etc
This could help cover tax shortfalls,maybe even some tax cuts and allow some people to relocate to real jobs.
14. Tax has shifted downwards then? Poor pay more, rich pay less? I assume that was Thatcher’s work.
Whilst the general public were willing to accept higher taxation during the mirage years of debt fuelled excess they certainly won’t be willing to finance the same state apparatus on the downhill slope.
Brown has spent not only our money but our childrens and quite possibly grandchildrens in the almost criminally irresponsible accumulation of public debt in the form of pfi and the civil service pension liabilities.
Hundreds of billions of pounds that will need to be repaid by someone.
I’m probably one of the few people looking forward to the economic downturn in the UK. Might lead to our leaders reassesing the path this tired nation is following.
Finding their pockets bare might knock some sense into the British people. Well, I hope so anyway.
18. I think so. G, am I right in thinking you’re a student. What do you study and where?
10 - For 1947-48 a special contribution was payable when a person’s total income exceeded £2,000. For investment income over £5,000 it was 50%. So with income tax at 45% and surtax at 52.5%, the effective rate was 147.5%.
In 1967-68, the special charge was imposed. For investment income over £8,000, the rate was 45% which - with income tax at 41.25% and surtax at 50% - meant a total rate of 136.25%.
‘Course its the economy..though in August last year I was accused of being ‘jealous of Gordon’ when I pointed out it was about to get difficult.
I’m really jealous of him and his great success right now…..
The Tories will have little fiscal room to move when they get in given the way things are going with the public finances. The answer therefore may lie in non-monetary moves to help the economy, such as trying loosen regulation etc. Mr & Mrs J Soap of Averagetown may have to wait a bit though.
21. PPE, Oxford. Why, d’you ask?
The really big issue over the next ten years and beyond is going to be pensions and the massive chasm of unfairness between the feather-bedded final salary related, inflation protected benefits provided by the public sector and the massively under-funded state of private sector pensions, caused primarily by the tax grab by this Government 11 years ago, largely ignored at the time, because few felt any immediate pain, but which is now costing pension funds and therefore its members £15,000,000,000, that’s £15,000,000,000 a year and rising. This inequitous situation simply cannot go on, yet Brown & Co. simply haven’t the guts to even start to deal with it.
23. This wouldn’t involve moves towards an American style hire and fire culture would it?
VATs regressive. Why on earth would we want to increase it at the moment ?
26. No idea but to be honest it may help to nod a bit more towards it rather than the youve have to be incompetent to be fired system often in evidence.
More importantly overall there needs to be a greater culture of industry. Its too easy to live on the dole for too many.
20. It would also involve a fair few pensioners dying through lack of fuel and heating. A downturn always hurts those at the bottom the most, if you think it’s managers and stock traders who are going to be finding their pockets bare, you might well be shocked.
28. Given the low productivity in this country there doesn’t even appear to be much of a culture of industry even in the workplace.
what is regressive about vat?
What utterly repugnant words ‘regressive’ and ‘progressive’ are. They are used by people on the left to endorse everything they believe in, and sneer at everything they dont believe in.
You have to balance the basket of taxes for purposes of stability, ease of collection and efficiency. If you place one kind of tax at to high a level revenues begin to fall and can have perverse consequences. This is true of income tax, vat, duty and council tax.
Vat is a tax on consumption, Income Tax and NI are a tax on income, Council tax/stamp duty and inheritance tax are taxes on property and then tax on capital/profit which are usually business related.
An argument can be put forward for captial gains tax to apply to homes in the same way it applies to everything else….
29. We need to end this excuse for neo-liberal economics that the poor would suffer under any other system.
I don’t believe poor people ae worse off on the continent. Indeed much economic inactivity was a response to Thatcher’s scheme to get people out of Unions and into welfare where they wouldn’t do any harm.
27 cut expenditure among people who shouldnt be spending ie those who fund it by borrowing…
15 in a number of cases it has exceeded 100% of income !!
In 1967-68, the special charge was imposed. For investment income over £8,000, the rate was 45% which - with income tax at 41.25% and surtax at 50% - meant a total rate of 136.25%. from HMRC website
G - as an economist you will know about fiscal drag; every chancellor’s favourite stealth mechanism.
I think ‘Tax Freedom Day’ is the easiest approach to measuring changes;
when I was born it fell on 27 April but this year it will be the 2nd June - a whole month’s extra salary in taxes! mind you the nadir came in the early 80’s when it was mid-June; the price of paying off the 70’s spending binge. Expect something similar in the next few years with Tax Freedom Day not arriving until about 20th June in Cameron’s early years.
3 - well reminded
29. Indeed, part of the reason Bill Clinton achieved the difficult feat of being popular with African Americans, Hispanics and ethnic whites was that he produced a growing economy which lifted all boats. The best strategy to help the poor is economic growth.
Thanks Cityunslicker, I think that more and more people are coming around to the realisation that the economy is going to be a basket case come the next GE. I think the Conservatives have to be honest, and although bland, the mantra “sharing the proceeds of growth” fits the bill. Basically, they will do what they can afford too.
I always think that the electorate alternates between a Conservative and a Labour government with the simple rule that the Tories dish out the nasty tasting medicine, while Labour gives them the sugar.
18 - no, its actually a symptom of the welfare state. Until Attlee and 1945 the median citizen paid little if any income tax except in exceptional circumstances (war etc).
34. I believe you’ve done your maths wrong. Any income would either (1) fall under only one of the tax bands or (2) having the second bout of tax be charge on what’s left over after the first bout. Either way, they’re not going to get over 100%.
36. Yes but a bit of short-term pain might encourage a change in Britain’s economic fundamentals - over-reliant on financial services, no manufacturing, useless productivity, poorly skilled workforce, short-termism on pensions/savings, far too much reliance on vacuous consumer spending - it may lead to long term gain.
31. I ment regressive in the sense that it takes up a proportionally greater amount of poorer peoples income than richer peoples.
Would your suggestion of a 2.5% increase in VAT apply to everything ? Fuel ? Utility bills ? Good luck with standing for election on that platform
24 - how did he know you’re a student? Oh, and what college?
A sidelight from the Finance Bill Committee: the Conservatives on the committee declined to rule out the reintroduction of the fuel price escalator. In the current climate that seems quite unlikely, but if world prices calm down a bit I can see them arguing that fiscal caution plus greenery makes it desirable.
Blair ‘to devote life to faith’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7426647.stm
As Basil Fawlty said of Major Gowan “He’s really gone this time.”
32 - neoliberal? and just what proportion of GDP is government spending? Not really very neoliberal at all.
43.But they have promised that any green taxes would be offset by tax rewards elsewhere.
34 Kingbongo - I wonder if Tax Freedom Day takes into account the current and rising £15 Billion per annum hit on private pensions - I somehow doubt whether this is taken into account since it comprises a mixture of the loss of tax credits on dividend income, coupled with the annual impact of 11 years’ compound interest on such lost tax credits, as opposed to being tax revenues actually received by the Treasury.
In much of the 1980s and 1990s I beleive the effective rate was over 100% for certain low income people as well, due to the interaction with the benefits system - the so called “Poverty trap” whereby the combination of becoming ineligible for benefits and paying tax on income made it actually cost people money to work.
The working tax credit was supposed to address this, I think, but appears to be overly complicated to administer.
43 - The fuel price escalator was one of the most sensible taxes ever introduced and has meant that the current oil price shock has had far less impact on Briton’s than in say the US were as a percentage it shot up much higher.
Brown may have caved in quite quickly in 2000 to drop it, but if the market settles down the reintroducing it could be the right move.
GMB is threatening to disaffiliate from Labour because of GB’s performance - a revenue loss of £1.4m. pa. Much more and GB cannot possibly survive, with Labour finances as they are. The GMB rep. sounded as if he meant it.
“And even the Lib Dems need to come up with some ideas.” As befits the party with the strongest treasury spokesman they/we have plenty of ideas - a rather biased article as someone else pointed out.
eg a shift from taxes on income to taxes on consumption.. not so much VAT as scarce resources… ending higher rate tax relief on pension contributions… etc etc
I think the shock to the system is going to be at least as big as those of 20-30 years ago. If you assume that the Tories will at least have some share of power surely it would be sensible for them to say just how bad it is going to be… though this has a short term political cost if they get in having promised the Earth would be a lot worse.
I think the manufacturing decline, whilst inevitable to a point, needs looking at. Japan still has a massive manufacturing base, Germany also. They aren’t exactly suiffering like ours.
34 - tax freedom day is a great idea in principle as it will be easier to track than things like % of GDP for most people. But how useful will it be as it is just an aggregate.
So what will the Tories do? Watch Boris for a hint of the future. He is quietly and methodically cutting back on wasteful public expenditure - City hall no longer buys 40 copies of the Morning Star every day, the Londoner is to cease, overseas “embassies” are to close,the london office in Caracas will close, only those whose presence is deemed absolutely essential will go to Beijing for the Olympics…and so it goes.
We need a Boris in Whitehall and another overseeing the NHS. Let’s face it it’sour money Nu Labour are wasting
39 no I’m afraid I got it right - it really did lead to crazy double taxation - sounds mad because it was mad but I can assure you it’s true.
so to adopt your approach
a) I can actually add up and
b) HMRC will confirm the double taxation if you still think a) is unlikely
44. “Former prime minister Tony Blair has promised to “spend the rest of my life” uniting the world’s religions.”
And people said he had a messianic complex!
41. We have a serious inbalance in the public finances. We are either going to need to raise taxes steeply, cut spending steeply or do a bit of both.
Strong economic growth is not going to sort things out (it will help an awful lot though), we have a *structural* PBR problem due to this PMs tenure as chancellor. We can cope with cyclical inbalances, but to sort out the present mess is going to require the kind of steel that Maggie had, and even Brown had in his first few years as chancellor.
42. Prefer not to give too much information away if that’s okay with you so i won’t tell you the college, he knows I’m a student because i’ve mentioned it before.
Re: 38, Wilson, Thatcher and Brown were all in government after the welfare state was created, i was wondering who caused the change between Wilson and Brown.
44 I forgot how much I hated Blair… let’s hope he never troubles us again. At least Brown isn’t delusional about how he has a hotline to the almighty whilst at the same time blowing up the world.
48 - tax credits have increased marginal rates of tax overall (as in more people suffer higher ones) but the ridiculously high marginal rates (95% plus etc) has been almost eliminated. That was the tax credit trade off which was never debated. See the chapter on this in Chris Dillow’s excellent book, the end of politics.
43 Nick, I think you’re forgetting to mention that the Tories have promised to provide tax cuts in other areas to compensate for any green taxes they may introduce. I’m sure this was only an oversight on your part.
47 no it doesn’t take the hit to pensions into account but clearly should - I think even the Adam Smith Institute would find the calculations too depressing though.
55. Have you got a link?!?
50 - yes soldier, they are in real trouble. Gordon might be left with one hell of a bill. A bet he loves Tony even more now.
56. I expect Gordon will want his turn to be the Messiah now… :rollseyes:
50. The GMB leader was on Channel 4 News tonight, Gordon won’t like what he was saying. It looks as if the GMB think Brown would lead Labour to oblivion, and one could wonder if the brothers have now had enough and want him out, now. Brown was compared with Kinnock as being unelectable, and hugely unpopular, and enough to turn more of the GMB’s members to vote for Cameron. It looks as if Brown is holed below the waterline.
52 - what do you mean by “looking into”? Actual government action such as artificially keeping the pound down so that our exports are more competative? Tax breaks etc? Do you really want to meddle with the market in such a 70s manner?
53. So when do you chose to have tax freedom day? The point in the year when you stop working for the government and start earning for yourself, or when you stop earning for yourself and start giving to the country?
O/T Not good news for Gordon. According to PoliticsHome the General Secretary of the GMB, Paul Kenny suggested that the public just don’t like Brown and that Labour could face a ‘hiding’ at the next election.
http://www.politicshome.com/#1086
I don’t know whether Paul Kenny is just shouting his mouth off, or whether something else is happening. My guess is that Kenny would much prefer Alan Johnson to lead the party into the next election.
It isnt the economy stupid, it is Looney Lefty madness.
A British boy cannot get a passport because it refuses to acknowledge his father as a Person.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article1219257.ece
The law is quite clear - if a father is British, then that person is entitled to a British passport. Right? WRONG! Under Labour, fathers dont exist.
63 try typing HMRC into Google and looking at their brief history of income tax - I’d do the link but I can’t be bothered for rude people.
58 - yes VAT has a lot to do with it, as does the failure to increase the tax free allowance and other fiscal drag measures, as does rising disposable incomes leading to more money spent on taxable (i.e. VATable) items.
71. Which was the rude part of my post? The sentence which started with “I believe…”?
68 - Frank, I think the term “tax freedom day” is thoroughly unhelpful and it should be phrased in a different and far less negative (about tax) manner. However, the use would probably be the day which on aggregate you started earning for yourself. However, it wouldn’t be of much use, as I said, as its just an aggregate, and wouldn’t fully explain the situation of most people (e.g. a new top rate could be introduced and the tax free allowance trebled - the date could remain the same but for the majority of people the amount of tax they pay would have substantially decreased). It is unfortunate that dull figures in deciles are far more useful than a jazzy ASI tax freedom day.
39 Socrates. Right - the highest rate, as I recall was “only” 97%.
50 and 66 - yes I think it is death by a thousand cuts at the for Brown. He is neither loved or feared. The GMB doesn’t have a great deal of loot itself, but still. I don’t know if Kenny’s had too many sugars in his tea today or if something is else going on. Personally I think he’d prefer Alan Johnson as leader, but I never get a sense that he has much strategy behind what he does and this could be something isolated.
I think the key is Unison. Unite will stay loyal and Charlie Whelan is in control of the political department there, but Dave Prentis and Unison are the ones to watch. They backed Johnson in the deputy leadership and have enjoyed working with him at Health. Prentis is sensible, if he starts wobbling then we know Brown is in doo-dah with the unions.
73 I believe it might be the absence of that little word “please” in your post 63.
From past economic history,the raising of VAT from 8% to 15% in Geofftey Howes first 1979 budget put c.5% on the RPI:Lamonts putting this up from 15-17.5% in 1991 had some,albeit smaller inflationary effect-so at a time of less certain economic climes (even by mid-2010 if and when the Conservatives win an election),surely a rise in VAY would be risky,inmprudent-and by its nature,peole on lower incomes would suffer disproportionately
77. I never realised such etiquette was standard on blogs. I’ll watch my Ps and Qs in future!
Isn’t the real reason for the Tory focus on green taxes an excuse to increase the tax burden on the poor in order to reduce it on the rich?
If this country was serious about reducing inequality wouldn’t we start shifting the burden from indirect and back to direct taxes on those who can most afford to pay.
79 its etiquette full stop.
60 Thanks for the tip James. I’ll try and get a copy of that Chris Dillow book.
New Democracy Corps Presidential Poll :
McCain 45% .. Obama 47%
http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2008/05/obama-emerging-ahead-in-close-race/?section=Analysis
Telegraph / Yougov
Con 47
Lab 23
LD 18
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/2050682/Labour-Gordon-Brown-support-slumps-to-its-lowest-since-polling-began.html
Borwn’s ratings further down the pan…..
The unions have a great opprtunity to leverage sonme more concessions. Why miss it?
76. More good news for the postie.
78 - precisely
84.Incredible!
84. Its official, ouch.
Though if there was GE next week i just couldnt see those Tory figures quite so high and Labour’s quite so low.
82 - Paul, its a little dry and heavy on graphs but it really is a superb critique of NuLab policy without being vengeful or aggressive. He takes their aims (modernised social-democracy) at their word and dissects the results brilliantly.
84. A hammer blow - Labour less than half the Conservatives !!
Horrible for Clegg too - Labour have lost 10-12% in last 9 months and the LDs have picked up nothing..
hooray!
Holy cow!
Ps
BBC news 24 reporting “significant” concession ” on 42 days detention.
Electoral Calculus
Con 452
Lab 138
LD 32
Con Majority : 254
Of course if it is only half that bad it’s still a landslide.
76 That’s an interesting insight, Henry. Perhaps the wealthier unions also feel freshly empowered, hearing of Labour’s financial plight and, knowingthat the begging bowl is inevitably heading in their direction, they can start preparing their quid pro quo.
80 no I don’t think it is - and I’m a LibDem. What you get if you tax income i.e. work, is less of an economy. Given that the most lucrative bits of our economy are pretty footloose this option doesn’t really exist for us any more. You could raise the top rate a bit or introduce another band but wholesale soak-the-rich policies are dead whichever party gets into power.
The total abolition of income tax for most people, with perhaps a super tax instead of the top band now, makes a lot of sense as an aim for both traditional left and right now.
90. And the Tories haven’t been sniffing around for more LD votes. IMO Cameron has shifted back to bluish territory.
Still you can’t expect the earth when you have 2 quick leader changes. And remember after 2005, most predicted a Tory recovery might see the LDs annihilated. Hopefully we’ll avoid that.
95. ‘Given the most lucrative parts of our economy are pretty footloose’ - and that’s what has to change.
85. The Conservative party really need to be on 63% if they have any realistic chance…………. snore……….
A great poll again, are Yougov exagerating the state of play? We now have sustained leads of 20+. I wonder if we see any pattern in tonights council by-elections..
And yet another Labour backbench revolt in the making:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/2050849/Labour-63-MPs-signal-new-revolt-for-Gordon-Brown.html
92. The government have no choice. They just need to survive here so giving in now in the hope of calmer waters later is the only way to go.
The funny part is that the current mathematics apparently makes the 9 votes of the DUP potentially critical. If that remains so on the day of the vote Gordo may be getting the chequebook out….
79 no it wasn’t a lack of ‘please’ though that never goes amiss it was the ‘I believe’ sentence followed by an assertion based on nothing but your own assumptions.
that to me is rude - I’ve always taken the view that if you assert something you should know it’s true and if you don’t you should perhaps phrase it as a question. This could be me being touchy but if something is stated as fact I think you should only question it with your own evidence, not with your own assumptions - a small thing I know, but then what can you expect from a teacher?
84 - unbelievable.
This YouGov poll is really good. Labour are languishing in the low to mid 20’s and Cameron is now making an assault on mid to upper 40s.
Dear, oh dear. Tories poll % higher than Lab & Libdem *combined*.
50%+ next stop.
You have to laugh, don’t you?
Well I do.
96 - I hope and think so. The UMS seat predictor doesn’t fully demonstrate lib dem local strength, doesn’t take into account tactical voting, or the fact that we tend to increase our numbers during a GE campaign with increased exposure on both a local and national level.
97 - how exactly?
Brown - C’est le fin!
is there a book on the BBC website failing to mention the worst Labour vote since records began. ?
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE poll of polls that comprises ICM, Populus, YouGov, CR and MORI that gives :
Con 42.4% .. Lab 27.4% .. LibDem 19.6% .. Others 10.6%
The PISSED Wells/Baxter Index with added SOAMES weighting shows :
Con 376 seats .. Lab 190 .. LibDem 52 .. Others 32.
Con majority of 102.
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES … System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
An ill Brown wind blows from the ARSE.
90 As the LibDems were on 14% with Yougov 9 months ago your last senrence is patently untrue .
99. One of these rebellions could stick, especially if they are actively being used a tool to damage Brown and make his life very difficult.
So far 10p has been cleared, 42 days is tricky but maybe passable but still with some rebellion, this one barely would have registered 6 months ago, nor would the car tax.
Its when siginificant concessions don’t prevent a full rebellion and don’t peel off sigificant numbers of the original rebels that you suspect they have a secondary agenda.
Evening all
A lot of excitement on here tonight which is understandable though part of me wonders how much Cameron and Osborne are going to enjoy managing the economy and public expectations of improvement after 2010.
My take on the day’s events here:
http://aloadofoldstodge.blogspot.com/2008/05/thursday-commentary.html
111. Remeber the Beeb’s rules Don’t mention the Poles (oops they meant Polls)
If the Tories have this kind of lead, might the grassroots press Cameron into adopting a more radical manifesto?
109. Glad your arse is belatedly catching up with the rest of the political body.
107. But how does he go?
111 - but you know they like to spin it both ways, rather than look at the facts.
115 - I think he’ll resist. I’m not sure they’ll want to rock the boat now. The previous plan was watch him decontaminate but fail and then take over and be more radical. Now I think the plan is to let Cameron succeed, he’s a great salesman, and implement influence and policies once in government.
BBC wesite reporting Shell tanker drivers vote to strike over pay. Everyone will be getting their snouts in the trough. Could it be worse than ‘78?????
84. jsfl. Well done in beibg the first to report the YouGov poll here.
I wonder if this will move the GE spread seats market? It really ought to but the market’s been very stubborn recently despite the evidence.
111. Correct - Labour have lost 15% since that poll and you’ve picked up a massive 4%.
116 Yokel. The ARSE is not to trifled with !!!!!!!!!
112. The thing is they only seem to have until Monday (so little or no time to fix this one and they are still trying to fix the 42 day debacle. What was it Blair said about Major being led by his party? Seems like the same is happening now….
116 - GMB disaffiliant, no new loans, 200 + MPs looking like they’ll lose their seats. I think, and perhaps a little unfairly, the buck will eventually stop with Brown. He’s been set up by all of us and the media as the fall guy. I think he’s now totally under control of events. If they don’t go his way, they’ll make him leave.
118 superbly put. I would have taken several paragraphs to say the same thing. Let them self-destruct.
120. Thanks - I was surprised someone didn’t beat me to it. It had been on-line 10-15 minutes I think.
125 - thanks Maggie lover.
115. I doubt they’d pressure Cameron to abandon a strategy that was working so well. But grassroots seem to have a suicidal streak.
95. I believe some research was done into this. The Laffer-Curve is only a simple shape at the extremes, increasing tax can also increase productivity as people work harder to increase their take-home tax. It’s a balancing act.
120 hard to say. I think the spreads havent quite been catching up with the polls because there is still idea that the Tories need a squillion percent lead to just get the largest party status (something I’ve never bought myself). Plus thumping lead after thumping lead may nudge things rather than a single pioll just causing a big move.
I did some Tory buying on SPIN before C&N in the hope of realising short term profits as I’m heavily invested in the Tories for the GE from a long way out and wanted to get a bit of a quicker play. I havent sold however and have stayed in for a bit longer.
Awful poll. I bet Mike wishes he wasn’t on holiday now.
All the polls have us either 2% or 3% up since Clegg took over. However it can’t be denied that by far the biggest chunck of Labours vote is going straight to the tories.
In many ways thats the optomistic senario. If its more complex and there is a real churn - lets say lots of the Labour vote is comming to the LD’s but existing supporters are shipping COn then what does that do to held seats ?
YouGov poll puts Labour 11 points clear
Tue Sep 25, 2007 at 08:22:17 PM GMT Facebook
Tonight’s YouGov / Channel 4 poll conducted after Brown’s conference speech puts Labour on 44% (up 5%), Tories on 33% (unchanged) and LibDems on a lowly 13% (down 3%).
115.”If the Tories have this kind of lead, might the grassroots press Cameron into adopting a more radical manifesto?”
Err, no.
122 No chance of me trifling with it. I’m not putting fresh cream on that.
24 Daves would be good to see
When was the last time that there was such a big difference between Lab and Con?
The last time the Conservatives poll figure exceeded the combined total for Lab and Libdem was Mori on the 30th January 1989.
I ran Rod Crosby’s probalistic forecaster as well and it suggested a Conservative majority of 225.
Poll details here
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/00674/yougov-may-large_674870a.gif
131. Which emphasises the problem for Labour more than any lead. Direct switchers between Labour and Con will be fatal for the party that loses them come a GE.
135
I think from a point of balance, we ought to see 24 beaming Daves and 24 utterly miserable Gordon’s
131 It means you’ll be gaining from Labour but under heavy pressure defending against the Tories in all but your most entrenched MPs.
115 Perhaps now is the time to ask Labour how many Prison inmates are Immigrants.
Labour has imposed open immigration on Britain. The Prisons are full.
New thread - YouGov
Thanks
Double Carpet
137. I’d eat my burberry baseball cap if the majority would be that big.
113 Stodge.This is typical of the anti-Cameron/Osborne posters.Before, it was argued they were incompetent, now that the economic mess will be so bad, that it will be impossible for them to correct without massive loss of support.It has been obvious all along that this latter would be the case.C&D are not stupid - their first task will be to make it clear exactly what they are inheriting from this dreadful government and that correction will be long and painful.
84. Labour polling at the % the Lib Dems got at the last election!
136 - i doubt ever
131.Which the C&N result clearly showed. I think that the Libdems should be quite concerned about some of the seats they already hold.
An astonishing poll that validates the local election results and the by election at Crewe.
I am a very happy man tonight on the politics front. No caveats.
18% already being spun as ‘not too bad’ for the Lib Dems which on recent results may be true but still suggests that around one in five of their 2005 voters have deserted them.
And Brown reeling from rebellions on car tax, 42 days, MP’s pay and now also planning law. Then there will be the proposed expansion of nuclear power… can’t see the likes of Diane Abbott going for that one somehow ….
Should read C&O.
138 “Others” up 50% since 2005.
142 - oh how I wish you would
144.Yokel, I would eat my tartan one for a decent working majority never mind the one indicated by this poll.
Re: 131 - I think there’s plenty of evidence the LDs lost a tranche of votes in the first year of Cameron’s leadership partly due to the Tory “love-bombing” and partly due to the botched removal of CK and the poor performance of Sir Menzies.
More recently, both the LDs and Conservatives have benefitted from the collapse in Labour support.
I’m under no illusions the LDs will lose seats next time. I hope the floor is around 30-35 seats. Yes, we will lose a number of seats to the Tories (perhaps 30) but hopefully hold those we have picked up from Labour with possibly an additional gain or two.
Unlike 1970 and 1979 when the bulk of the party’s MPs were in seats with Conservatives as the main challenger, we now have a base of ex-Labour seats which give us more possibility of surviving the Cameron avalanche.
A stronger Parliamentary base will help when the wheels fall off the Cameron bandwagon and Tory seats will be there for the taking.
Surprisingly, Sporting’s GE Seats market remains open and so far its prices haven’t moved on the YouGov poll, their 348 mid price for Tory seats indicating a majority for the Blues of less than 50 - light years away from what this poll translates into - one or other is very wrong!
147-Thanks
101. I had tried to avoid seeming too curt by making sure the “believe” and “assume” qualifiers were in there. Clearly, it wasn’t enough - my apologies!
So, other than the idiocy of the disappearence of the 10% tax band how is this awful economic situation manifesting itself upon the British people?
Are there people in the streets as there were under Hilda’s wondrous regime? Where are these riots taking place? What kind of people are rioting? What are they rioting about?
My wife and I are returning to the UK on Monday. Will it be safe for us to walk the streets? Indeed, will it be safe for us to get out of the taxi? Will our home still be standing?
How many people have been killed in the riots against Brownstuff’s unctuiously awful government? Are the police able to keep up with the situation? Is the stock market falling hugely? Are interest rates back up to Tory levels? Has my pension been slashed? Is there still champagne to be had in the shops?
An exceptionally nervous Malcolm
Glad to have kept you all entertained. Personally, I hope the Tories are far enough ahead in the polls they can afford to wash all the dirty laundry in the street; a clean slate on the debt front is the only place to start from in 2010. Maybe by 2020 we will then have something like a fighting chance again of a well run economy.