Do the 212 “at risk” Labour MPs want a new leader?
May 30th, 2008
What will YouGov do for Gord’s survival chances?
The above is what happens when you key in the C47-L23-LD18 general election vote shares from today’s Daily Telegraph YouGov poll into the Anthony Wells commons seat calculator.
If you do the same with the Martin Baxter calculator at Electoral Calculus you get even worse projections for Labour - CON 452: LAB 138: LD 32 seats. Martin’s website conveniently lists the outcome for every single seat in the country - something that a number of the threatened MPs might find themselves having a sneaky look at this morning.
Whether these are accurate projections for the general election who knows? Their central importance will be the impact they have on the mood of the parliamentary Labour party as MPs return to Westminster after what used to be called the Whitsun holiday.
Of course there are likely to be other surveys this weekend and it’s possible that the overall picture that they paint might not be so gloomy. But YouGov, which was severely attacked by the party in the run up to May 1st, saw its reputation being enhanced by its London Mayoral election performance.
Also in MPs minds will be the Crewe and Nantwich by election result showing the massive increase in Conservative votes - from 14,162 in 2005 to 20,539 last Thursday. Labour MPs at their most pessimistic might also recall that here the polls underestimated by a considerable degree the Tory gap over Labour.
I’ve never been any good at predicting what Labour MPs will do and will refrain from doing so again. But my bets at 6/1 and 5/1 a fortnight ago that Gordon will not survive the year look promising. You certainly can’t get those prices today.
Mike Smithson
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Almost feels like this poll isn’t real - since SPIN haven’t taken their market down.
The Crewe and Nantwich by-election means that the “What will happen first under a Brown government?” bet is now defunct. So perhaps we should set up a new bet with new options:
Brown goes mad
Brown goes bankrupt
Brown ceases to be an MP
Brown ceases to be PM
Brown goes blind
Brown swears during PMQs
Clegg faces a meltdown of similar proportions.
Brown is not facing a temporary dip as his unpopularity is based not only on the economy which might one day improve, but on the fact that he’s misrepresented himself as strong decisive forthright honest leader, when he is a weak, dithering, indecisive and dishonest shuffler of embarrassing proportions.
Labour MPs will inevitably jettison him. That is a foregone conclusion now. The only question left is who will be the players competing to lead the party next. Not all have declared themselves yet. But that is clearly the process going on at the moment, with many breaking ranks to take a potshot a Brown.
Labour MPs don’t want a new leader, but they know that the risk:reward ratio is now heavily in favour of dumping Brown. The question is whether that means dumping New Labour along with Brown, or will the Party swing to the eurosceptics and outflank Cameron?
I know Nick Palmer’s and respect them. However, I doubt all of the 200 or so Labour MPs “at risk” will be as dignified as he is. If you plug the numbers into Baxter we see: Hoon, Katy Clarke (tipped as future leader), John Hutton, Angela Smith, Jack Straw, Ruth Kelly, Kitty Ussher, Ivan Lewis, Jon Cruddas, Alan Milburn, Shahid Malik, Caroline Flint, Tessa Jowell, Alasdair Darling, Ben Bradshaw, Vernon Croaker, Bill Rammell, Tony McNulty, Charles Clarke, Jim Fitzpatrick, Jacqui Smith, Janet Anderson, John Denham, James Purnell, and Angela Eagle: all losing their seats. Its not the Harry Cohen’s of this world who are gonna remove Gordo but freaked out ministers who think they might be the next Portillo, or ambitious up and comers who don’t want their careers cut short who will knife Brown. A few more polls like this and Straw, Hutton, Denham and co might have to wield the knife.
Your bets at 6-1 and 5-1 that GB goes this year were the absolute cream,Mike Smithson and I am kicking myself for missing them.
Contrary to popular belief,all the great bets are with the conventional bookies.
Back in my world of toil and struggle on Betfair on the Party Leaders market I find it touching that Brown is a teeny marginal fav. to remain in office.
This is incredible because the other side of the bet(Brown to go) is far more seductive.
I conclude that there is no plot afoot to remove him at this moment in time.
3 But new leader = GE, and MPs in marginals won’t volunteer for unemployment, so surely Brown is safe?
Is there any way to make these seat predictors more accurate? According to Baxter, Con will gain Leyton & Wanstead…I mean it’s just not even close to any kind of realism.
5. Why does new leader = GE? The Labour Party doesn’t require a mandate to change its leader.
5
I don’t think there’s any legal requirement for a general election with a change of leader. If there were, Mr Brown would of had to face the public already.
5 Itchen
Why would new leader = general election?
Malcolm
6
“According to Baxter, Con will gain Leyton & Wanstead…”
Are you talking about Electoral Calulus? They currently predicting that as a Labour hold.
The ‘Con gain’ scenario, on the figures from this poll, are using Labour’s worst poll rating since WWII, which means that ‘realism’ would have to be re-calibrated.
10. Unfortunately, if Brown is in charge, I wouldn’t be surprised if those figures are about right at the 2010 election. I still however, don’t think Con would gain Leyton and Wanstead…
11
When Labour are breaking records in unpopularity, you should be prepared for surprising results.
5 - why does new leader mean GE. A new leader has three options. One, get a bounce, go to the polls, limit the damage, and hope for a hung parliament. Two, create a language and policies which work with the voter and call an election at the best point in the next two years and limit the damage that way. Three, start the internal debate and rethinking now, get through a couple of things you really want, so that the next parliament isn’t as destructive as 97-01 was for the Tories. Do a Howard, solidify the base and create the conditions for a new direction under the next leader.
A week is a long time in politics. There are quite a few weeks between now and 2010.
Getting rid of this abysmal government would be a taste worthy of much savouring. Unfortunately replacing it with Pretty Boy Dave’s lot would be like taking the medicine after the sugar lump.
Malcolm
14 - quite.
13. Exactly, this is why Straw should be elected now, with one of the young’uns in place to take over in opposition.
16 - that’s certainly one plan.
13
‘An internal debate’ would surely happen during the leadership election (I’m assuming they wouldn’t have another coronation). If the deputy-leadership election is anything to go by, that would involve a marked rhetorical swing to the left to court the union vote. Not sure that would improve Labour’s poll rating.
16 - Charlie, I see three options: a better communicator than Brown following similar policies (can only be Denham or Johnson); a new leader with a clear and different sense of direction with pre-existing and thought out policy positions (can only be Milburn); a steady hand to plug holes in a sinking ship to hand over to the next generation after 2010 (can only be Straw). Anybody else: Miliband, Clarke, Crudas, Harman, Purnell, Balls etc would be suicide.
I’m not sure what would benefit Labour’s poll rating at the moment. I think voters most affected are people like me, Blairites who are simply just amazed at how Brown has ruined the image of competence that Labour had of running the country.
At the moment, I’ll be a paid up member of the Labour party voting Lib Dem, which is a very sad state of affairs. I await a leadership election with enthusiasm.
I agree 100%, Straw, Milburn, Johnson and Denham are the ONLY realistic names at the moment.
Miliband is simply not going to risk his big shot with Labour doing so badly in the polls. Purnell doesn’t convince me anyway, and Balls would be an unqualified disaster in my opinion. Clark, Cruddas and Harman are immediate nos for me.
A name you didn’t mention was Andy Burnham. Burnham is a man I like a lot, I’d love to see him at least contest the next but one leadership election.
^that was a response to 19
18 - the internal debate would continue into the next Parliament. It wouldn’t necessarily be a policy debate (they’re in Gov’t for goodness sake) it would be what is Labour about? They are in an existential crisis and need some self examination. What is Labour’s relevance after the failure of managerialism and modernised social democracy? Does the party want to be a party of Government and if so it needs to be honest and drop some philosophical positions? Or does the party wish to win the debate in line with “labour values” (nebulous term, I know), so that when it eventually governs again it does so with a clarity, enthusiasm, and drive which was wholey lacking in NuLab? NuLab is dead, what comes next? This is their debate, and for their sake it might be best to start it sooner rather than later. They’ll have two years of freedom, knowing that they will lose before serious infighting and jockying begins in the next Parliament. Do they still “have a world to win”? Only they can decide.
20 - Charlie, I’m guessing you’d welcome Milburn then. The true leader of the Blairite public services and freedom agenda. The real radical.
20 - Milburn could lead. MacShane could enter the cabinet, so could Field, so could Barry Gardiner, so could Hugh Bayley.
24. Not sure if that’s supposed to be sarcastic, but yeah, I’d like Milburn, at least til the next election.
26 - no sarcasm at all, or in my post 25 either. I’d welcome it. I just know it’ll never happen. Charlie I’m afraid that the likes of you and the men I listed above are going to find being part of the Labour coalition very difficult in the next decade. I just hope that the party you currently vote for can satisfy you. Indeed, I believe that is one of the challenges facing the libdems, to take on the truly liberal, radical, and forward looking elements of the Labour movement, who might well get shunned shortly. I for one welcome you and would love to see those mentioned above with Yellow rosettes.
The papers from Sunday onwards will make for interesting reading. MPs will be back from recess and will have settled their opinions about what to do next. This poll is not going to improve the mood of many Labour MPs.
20. “amazed at how Brown has ruined the image of competence that Labour had of running the country.”
Substitute mirage for image.
I thought FPTP protected Labour better than Tories, because of less even vote distribution. Labour came out better with seats in 1983, than Tories in 1997.
Labour will lose, but not this big. I think the LDs will improve as well, given better coverage in a GE campaign.
If Labour change their leader and go to the polss 3-4 months later, we might still yet have Dave without an overall majority.
30 - AJK the figures shown take into account Labour’s inbuilt majority. That is why they are so shocking.
Oh dear! I knew it would all end in tears when they ignored the Jenkins commission. Their landslide went to their heads (and what good did it do them? Still frightened of Murdoch with a 179 majority!)
29. Why? I’m not a retard.
By the way, I refuse to believe that Nick Palmer isn’t secretly hoping that Brown is ousted.
34
Head in the sand perhaps?
30. It does. If you reverse the Con and Lab figures and give Labour a 24 point lead, Wells predicts Con 107, Lab 459, LD 58, Oth (exc NI) 8.
In reality, a 24 point lead is unlikely at a general election. Blair’s Labour peaked in 1995, two years before the election (the polls gave a second peak after the election in 1997, but this wasn’t really reflected in other ‘real’ election results such as locals and Euros). An increasing focus on Tory policies as and when they come out - or a lack of them if they don’t and the election becomes imminent - may knock some voters from the Conservative camp as well.
34 - I didn’t get that impression. I think he just wants to get on with his job for the next two years and good on him. The Tories are only 4.5% behind him in Broxstowe so he’s a gonner even if Labour recover, miraculously, to Con 36 Lab 34 nationwide. He is already so marginal that it doesn’t matter. It is the MPs who go on a larger swing, especially the ministers, whose actions should be watched.
Is there any way of betting that the Conservatives will retain Crewe & Nantwich? The polling here to me suggests that it is entirely feasible that it would be retained. Even if a super-landslide result isn’t going to happen.
It is all too easy to look at Labour’s poor poll ratings solely in terms of who is leading the party. The point is that every individual voter has to be persuaded to go to the polling station and vote for somebody. The worst thing for Labour’s future will be an Obama victory in the US Presidential election. This will highlight even further the “brilliant” Tony Blair’s involvement in an “unnecessary war” especially as the numbers of dead and levels of violence become an increasingly tiresome hangover of Blair’s government. Add to this the disgruntlement of ordinary people who we can call traditional “core voters” in towns in Blackburn constituency and similar (it is easy to forget living in London just how difficult life has also become in relatively small provincial towns) and I do wonder who can possibly turn things round for Labour on a purely personal level. What good is a Blairite as the war becomes increasingly embarassing? What good is yet another “spin-master” to core voters who already feel badly let down? What good is an “old Labour” revolutionary only capable of speaking to a rapidly decreasing “traditional working class”?
34 — why should he? What will happen if Brown is ousted? A snap election won’t help the MPs at risk.
Does Milburn have a plan to end the worldwide credit crunch? Bring down the price of crude? Does Johnson?
Worried Labour MPs ought to be hoping the next American president can turn things round before 2012. Ousting Brown won’t matter one way or the other.
40
What happens in 2012?
39 - El windy, if the Blairite is meant at myself and Charlie then I think you’re mistaken. Certainly when I say Blairite I’m talking about the Milburn public service reform, choice agenda, and local democracy, not the centralising, warmongering, authoritarian kind. I’m guessing Charlie does too.
The mood of Labour backbenchers at Prime Ministers Questions next Wed will be important. If they’re not cheering their man on….
34. I believe Nick.
Labour certainly has a problem, a fact that Nick recognises. He has posted that he wants some changes, though has been sensible enough not to say on here what they are. No doubt the whips / other leadership sounding boards are hearing it though.
Would a change of leader make a difference? Possibly, possibly not.
In as far as policy changes go, Labour is limited. While the comments in response to Test at [5] are right, in that a new leader does not automatically mean a general election, a new Labour leader doesn’t have a mandate to radically switch policies away from what was in the manifesto. That really would need a general election. So whoever becomes leader is left with much the same direction.
The next consideration is whether it is sensible to spend two months navel-gazing. Two months of paralysis might be better than another two months of initiativitis, but not much, and not if the result is that things have to pick up where they left off anyway. Two months is a long time. There is a window of opportunity now - roughly the same timescale as the Deputy Leader elections last year - but none after that until next Summer. Parliamentary business would simply be too disrupted otherwise. How could a Queen’s Speech be introduced in the middle of a leadership election? How could a budget be prepared? How could any serious legislation be introduced if it was not known if the PM at the time the votes were going to be taken was in favour of it or not?
And in any case, as was mentioned yesterday, who is going to fund the leadership election?
36 David, when the election comes, why should an incresed focus on Conservative policies help Labour’s comeback? Labour’s woes started when the Tories started unveiling policies - and the public liked them. You realy think that the Tories are going to unveil a raft of proposals at the baby-eating end of the spectrum? Just as likely that they will emphasise that Labour has no ideas and nothing to sell to the voters. Tories usually improve in election campaigns.
20. Charlie - “… Blairites who are simply just amazed at how Brown has ruined the
imagemirage of competence that Labour had of running the country. At the moment, I’ll be a paid up member of the Labour party voting Lib Dem, which is a very sad state of affairs. I await a leadership election with enthusiasm.”29. Oh, and Charlie, if you really are a member of the Labour Party, and not a troll, then you are actually a bit of a “retard” (lovely word!) for posting that on a well-visited blog.
44
” How could any serious legislation be introduced if it was not known if the PM at the time the votes were going to be taken was in favour of it or not?”
Do we really need more legislation?
This is the election victor bounce. I imagine that it nullifies Mike’s Golden Rule for the moment as well. People always like to vote for the winner and to have voted for the winner.
After a week, and some C&N debriefing I remain of the view that C&N was a much greater disaster for the LDs than for Labour. Sources have told me that Tim Farron’s now notorious interview at 1.45 am apparently reflected what the LDs genuinely thought had happened. So with a bit of persuasion and a lot of leaflets soft LDs will come home to the Tories - 12 months ago they wouldn’t have done.
This in turn means that at the moment Electoral Calculus is probably about right in taking the LDs down from 60+ to 40-. The Tories MUST now conduct a strong campaign in Henley to keep the momentum going. It will not be enough to win, they must “Win Big” as Eric said at C&N.
As for Labour: keeping Gordon on is not an option, it is just they haven’t followed though the scenarios beyond the Europeans yet. Every GE interview will be about GB’s competence to govern and when is he going. How can he answer the Blair killer question, “If elected, will you serve a full parliament ?”. Can a PM conduct a GE without doing interviews, I think not.
Like Election Calculus Cassandra could look into the future. If nothing is done these predictions won’t be far out. Can Labour MP’s do anything about it ? I suspect not until after the Europeans. Then it will be too late.
The only problem with a plot to remove Gordon is who is Labour’s Publius Servillius Casca, the first to strike a blow. Who would be Brutus etc?
49
Would it have to be one person? it could be several?
48, the question is: will the calculus prove accurate and will it be ignored, like Cassandra was?
45. It is much easier for the less popular party / leader to go negative against policies than personalities. Some people will buy the Labour spin and some of it may even be accurate - I doubt that Cameron can please all the current coalition of voters he’s put together.
Not that that matters too much electorally. Margaret Thatcher’s Conservatives got fewer votes in 1983 than John Major’s in 1992 (and only a fractionally higher proportion) but won a 120-seat bigger majority due to the split between Labour and the Alliance / Lib Dems. If Labour suffers high negative ratings, tactical voting and a big Lib Dem share may offset the loss of some votes from the Tory column.
47. Never underestimate Labour’s belief that society’s ills can be legislated away.
Leadership election means 4 PMs in the Parliament so “coronation” is more likely.
45: For me this is key Marquee Mark. Cameron unveils pro-family policies, a promise of IHT reduction, and yes the polls move in his direction as people see some vision and like what they hear. When the Tories are setting their agenda, it is no great concession to say that they are doing very well.
But outside the areas they want to talk about, they are all over the place: still no idea what to do with Northern Rock, listening to Eric Pickles on QT last night, great gags, but no idea what to do about fuel prices, no idea whether to go ahead with the October tax rise, no idea whether to stay green or play for the wallet vote, no clear idea what to do about MP expenses.
I cannot believe that they will be able to stay on the fence like this in a GE campaign, and they will have to upset someone. So I would expect their polling to go down once they concretise policies on the above.
P.S. I got attacked for being a ‘virulent spinner’ the other day for saying that I was planning to visit Henley - I never said we were favourites, I can see Boris’ old majority all too clearly, but if it’s a case of sitting on my bum posting here, or going there and getting stuck in, I know which I’d rather do - what about those who attacked me?
I suggest that to anticipate the moves of Labour MPs we need to consider their motivation.
Almost 1 in 10 are either standing down or are going to announce that.
However unlike previous Labour govts, this crop of MPs has been in Govt longer and become more dependent upon their MP salaries and perks.
The Labour MPs are also more from careers such as teaching that they have set aside. Going back to that is not an attractive option. They are less political than the 74 to 79 group. Intersted in power and not much on policies.
They have had a week of “feedback” in their constituencies and will return armed with an impetus for change. With an eye on their wage packet, like the Conservative MPs in 1990, I do believe that the MPs are going to act.
The threat of the sack also sits over a much bigger number than 212 because others can see their majority reduced to under 2,000 and wonder if they really are safe.
50 - Well the assassination of Caeser I reference involved 60 people apparantly.
54, hurrah for getting involved, although for using the word ‘concretise’ you really should be sent to the gulag:p
55, it is fascinating for outsiders to contemplate what Labour MPs will do. Perhaps they feel somewhat like deer in headlights? Since conference season they’ve slid hugely, made a recovery over Christmas, and then slid even more. Worse, they suffered big hits in elections.
I don’t envy them their choice.
49
“Sources have told me that Tim Farron’s now notorious interview at 1.45 am apparently reflected what the LDs genuinely thought had happened. ”
This interview passed me by, what did he say?
Stephen Ladyman MP on 5Live now - “Gordon Brown not the problem one bit” - and he has less than a 700 majority!
Deluded? In denial? How much more wool-pulling-over-eyes do they think we’ll take?
54. Coronation produced the current mess and no discussion about where Labour should go (except in the deputy leadership election, but Gordon took no notice of that, and in any case, Harman was as close to the ‘ticket’ candidate as anyone). Another uncontested election would be treating the public, the Labour members and Labour MPs with contempt. It only worked for the Conservatives in 2003 because expectations had reached a ludicrously low level for the political context of the time and because Michael Howard didn’t have to actually run a government as well. If things are bad for Labour now, imagine how they would be if a second unelected leader proves no better than Brown. At least everyone expected Brown to become PM, so the public had at least partially bought into the deal at the 2005 election.
59: as I recall he said C&N was only an OK result for the Tories and that the LDs hadn’t been squeezed despite predictions, and they’d held up well, and all other manner of guff which flew in the face of reality.
Another possible by-election. Could be a difficult one for the Lib Dems.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4029211.ece
58
A lot of Labour MP’s came in in 1997 and havent experienced unpopularity at this level. Tony Blair always manged to get them out of a hole. Deer in headlights sounds about right.
On a note of caution, during the fuel protests in 2000. The Tories were momentarily in the lead in the polls, Its an explosicve subject. During WW2 The American people were happy to have just about anything rationed…..except fuel.. If the fuel situation is sorted, I expect Labour to tick up several points.
48; well, except that the LDs are very far from power. They can lose a few seats, face a degree of embarassment, and return to 20 odd seats.
But that is a world of difference from losing power and 250 MPs. The number suggest Labour returning to a worse than 83 position. Even the worst scenario for the LDs would put them in a better than 83, 87 or 92 position…
63
On the plus side, I’m close enough to Winchester to join in
‘Judges order bomb document handover’
“Judges yesterday ordered the UK Government to hand over two confidential documents which relate to the Lockerbie bombing to the Court of Criminal Appeal.
One document, which is thought to contain information about the timer used to detonate the bomb, was uncovered by the Scottish Criminal Cases Review Commission.
It said that failure to disclose the document, which comes from an unnamed foreign country, could constitute a miscarriage of justice and referred the case back to the courts for a new appeal.
Foreign Secretary David Miliband has said that disclosing the document would cause “real harm” to national security and international relations and has lodged a claim of “public interest immunity”.
The PII certificate signed by Mr Miliband covers both the document referred to by the commission and a second document, which is linked to the first.
Lord Davidson [the Advocate General, who represents the UK Government in Scottish legal affairs] told the appeal judges: “… Let me be clear. The (foreign) secretary’s judgment is that any worthwhile summary or redaction would cause harm to the UK national security and international relations interest.”"
http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.2306938.0.Judges_order_bomb_document_handover.php
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/south_of_scotland/7426240.stm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pan_Am_Flight_103
63: hm, interesting.
Looks like Oaten is dumping on Cleggy there…
63. Interesting, though still speculation. In terms of hard reporting, the most useful snippet was “John Walsh, the [Conservative] party’s agent in Henley, said that it had pencilled in June 26 as a date for a contest. It will serve a writ in the Commons next week, after the recess”.
44 And in any case, as was mentioned yesterday, who is going to fund the leadership election?
Crikey - are things really that bad? Surely leadership elections need not be that expensive.
70 ask peter hain!
A chilling article in the Guardian for all property owners:
After the boom, the bust:
House price falls annualised of 11.4%, based on the last 6 months or 16.1%, based on the last 3 months
Interesting piece from the Guardian.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/may/30/davidcameron.welfare
68 The fact that Oaten has gone public in stating that he’s “talking to potential employers”, suggests he’s as good as gone.
Now that really would be an interesting by-election. When did the Lib Dems last lose one to the Tories?
60 - his majority is so small he’s finished anyway. For him Gordon isn’t the problem. Gordo is the problem for Ruth Kelly and others in her position.
63 - I really don’t think it’ll be that difficult. There’s a 7000 plus majority. A very clued up candidate replacing Oaten in Martin Todd, who is well bedded in with the city, which has lost parts of Meon Valley which were more Tory. The Lib Dems are strong on the local council and from what I hear of my former MPs seat, it should really be ok. Just because the Tories did amazingly in C&N against Labour doesn’t mean they can overturn a similar majority against the Lib Dems in a strong area.
The Labour rating of under 25% raises the usual questions of the size of its core vote. However, the substantial range of policies being discussed in Labour circles at present is making it difficult for the electorate to understand what the party stands for. Thus some seek a lurch to the left, while others (in The Independent today) are looking for reductions in tax and slashing public expenditure.
A perception by the public of a lack of core policies is leading to Labour ratings going into freefall.
Contrast the pre-Cameron Conservatives, a party that always put forward recognizably Conservative policies (even if they were unpopular). Its core vote could readily be identified at 30-33%.
74 - The Last Liberal by-election losses to the Conservatives was the Combined Univerisities in 1926. For an actual constituency probably Oxford in 1924. Of course the SDP lost to the Conservatives in 1982.
74 - Peter he was doing that last november and he’s still here. DC wants to talk up a by election in Winch so it doesn’t happen. Its a lose-lose-lose situation. The tories won’t win, the lib dem majority will be cut (or maybe slashed) and labour will come an incredibly distant third. Dave is just making sure Cowley street keep Oaten under their thumb and in his seat.
77 - due you have a link to that Indy article?
78 - they didn’t really lose because it was a labour seat where the sitting MP defected to the SDP. It was a Tory gain from Lab really.
Any one any ideas how the Conservatives would do in scotland and Wales?
81 - Well yes, so we have to go back over 80 years to see the third party lose a by-election to the Conservatives.
If only GB had listened to me and gorn to the country in October, still that’s the penalty he’ll now have to pay.
If Milliband takes over from Brown, the next GE will be the, ‘Three Blairs Election’ There’ll be: Blair Milliband, Blair Cameron, Blair Clegg, and the one who’ll win, will be the one who can do the most convincing impression of Tony Blair.
Perhaps we should just make Bremner PM and have done with it.
68 - ewwww.
There is no way on go(r)d’s Earth that Labour can win an election from this far behind.
Remember, Labour always runs out of money. They have done, after spending squillions on Northern Rock and by-election bribery. The only way a government can turn polls round is through cutting taxes and increasing spending on schools and fluffy bunny rabbits to pull out of hats. There is no money, the schools have been announced (seventeen times) and there will be no rabbits to pull from hats. In any case, if there were rabbits, Gordy would miscount them.
Labour need to change leader, not to win, that is beyond the best soapboxer, but to avoid a cataclysm.
It has to be an old stager to take a crash ball into the electoral ruck: Johnson or Straw. Straw being the more experienced man and Johnson the more likeable. I can’t be sure which would be better but perhaps Straw is now tainted by running Gordy’s campaign for leadership.
74. Peter from Putney - “When did the Lib Dems last lose one to the Tories?”
Never. At least not since the Lib Dems were formed in 1988. However, the Tories have won by elections from both the predecessor parties: the Social Democrats and the Liberal Party:
- Mitcham and Morden, June 1982, Con gain from SDP (defector from Labour).
- Prior to that it was the Combined English Universities by election in March 1926, Con gain from Liberal.
72 In Putney there are around 12 or 14 Estate Agents huddled literally next door to one other, all with swish exteriors and luxurious interior fittings. All employing half a dozen or more previously high earning “negotiators”, etc.
I walked past this mini parade of branches a few days ago and found that virtually every one was bereft of any customers, despite many of the properties in the windows announcing dramatic “10% Reduction”, “Owner Must Sell”, etc. signs.
The market at least in this part of S W London is clearly very weak - a few more months like this and I’d expect half the branches to close and those which survive to halve their staffing levels.
79 the Tories certainly will win Winchester. You think c&n was goood wait til you see the effort we bring over there. We will win with a good majority.
Right I’m off to watch the BBC’s 1983 election coverage.
76. Err won’t the byelection be fought on the existing boundaries?
Looking back to 1922, wasn’t it a revolt of junior ministers, and younger backbenchers led by Baldwin which undid the Tory coalition LLoyd George?
How far the ‘worried 212′ liked the remarks of the GMB leader on Channel 4 News is open to question, but when a union leader states that large numbers of his union membership have voted for Cameron’s Tories rather than Brown it ought to concentrate some minds.
Has anyone noticed today’s oil price?
Further to the above answers, the last seat the Liberals lost in any by-election was Carmarthen, taken by Labour (though their candidate was Megan Lloyd-George).
76. James Schneider - re. the chances of the Lib Dems holding Winchester: “I really don’t think it’ll be that difficult.”
You smell that?
Do you smell that?
Napalm, son.
Nothing else in the world smells like that.
I love the smell of napalm in the morning.
(John Milius & Francis Ford Coppola, 1979)
You Lab Dims really are a bunch of chumps.
87. With fewer people moving house, would that boost the ‘incumbency effect’ of sitting MPs?
92. Which is to say that Labour’s candidate in the 1957 Carmarthen by-election was Megan L-G.
84 - very funny.
I am intrigued by this gross magnification and extrapolation of a relatively small string of opinion polls and a single by-election into projections for a Parliament. When Peter Snow used to drag out his graphics to make similar massive-swing projections ‘if this by-election or poll were transposed on a General Election’ in similar circumstances he used to preface it by ‘this is just a bit of fun’. It would appear that the continued failure by the Conservatives to make any impact for so many years prior to this recent period has led to a gross media over-reaction. That is not to say that Gordon Brown is in any way safe.
89 Wonder how many of the 212 will see any of BBC Parliament today - reminder of what can happen
88 - I’m not denying you would, if there were a by-election, put in a very spirited campaign and pour activists in. So would the lib dems. I’m not denying that there would be a swing to the Tories. Just because you tapped the anti labour mood in one byelection doesn’t mean you’re now masters of the art. Lib vs Tory is a totally different kettle of fish.
Plus from what I hear on the ground we would be ok.
I really hope I don’t have to eat my words.
Always like watch how the graphics have changed with these electon night replays
Stuart Dickson:- As ever your triumphalist attitude makes me cringe. Not sure how posting that I’m a Labour party member and I’m considering voting Lib Dem is personally damaging to me, but I’m sure you’ll find a reason in your strange little head. I have no interest in becoming a higher-up in the party, so it is hardly going to affect my life.
90 - of course, silly me.
100 - ah, forgot that was on today. What time’s the coverage on till?
Doesn’t matter if I miss it I suppose, the 1983 results will be repeated in May 2010…
82 - I haven’t been looking at Scotland lately so I will leave Scotland to someone north of the border but these results would turn massive chunks of Wales blue.
Aberconwy, Alyn and Deesside, Delyn, Cardiff North, South, West, both Newport seats, Gower, Swansea West, Vale of Clwyd, Vale of Glarmorgan, West Carmarthen and South Pembs, Bridgend.
Labour would also lose Ynys Mon and Arfon to Plaid.
Taking into account that I really think local elections point to one Newport seat and Swansea West actually turning yellow I reckon Wales under the current polls ends up:
Labour 13 seats
Tories 16 seats
Plaid 6 seats
LD 4
Ind 1
Interesting to see James Schneider’s postings on Milburn. (20 et seq). I would argue that Milburn is not only the candidate who would offer the clearest change of direction, but also the best communicator, and by no means the least experienced. However it is by no means clear that Milburn is actually going to stand.
Since Mike’s original post on the possibility of a Milburn candidature, nothing has happened. I don’t think this means the story was wrong, but it could mean he was dipping his toe in the water and has decided not to proceed further - for now.
In retrospect, it may turn out that Milburn’s best chance to strike was after C&N, as Mike’s post suggested he would. The more the consensus builds up between now and the conferences that Brown must go, the greater the likelihood that someone within the Cabinet will take up the challenge.
I think it was always the case that in order to win, Milburn had to do to what Thatcher did in ‘75 - steal a march on his rivals by having the guts to do what none of them were prepared to do. Thatcher transformed herself from a stalking-horse for Whitelaw to a leader-elect by that single act of political courage. If he really wants the job - and that isn’t clear either - Milburn will have to do the same.
82. Truth & Justice - “Any one any ideas how the Conservatives would do in scotland and Wales?”
Re. Wales, please ask Morus if he pops in today. I can’t remember what he was predicting for the Welsh Tories, but it was reasonably good: about 5 seats I think(?)
Re. Scotland. Nearly every Scottish Tory I have heard says about 4 Scottish Tory MPs at the next UK GE (out of 59 MPs from Scotland). Even the Scottish Conservative Deputy Leader, Murdo Fraser, said that the party was aiming for “4-10″ seats, ie. 4+.
However, I think that may be a bit on the low side. I would not be at all surprised if the Scottish Tories managed approx 7 seats. Remember, even John Major managed 11 Scottish MPs in 1992 (although Scotland had far more MPs then: 72).
93 - stuart, just reiterating what I hear on the ground and observations about the nature of the current Tory vote. Yes you’re doing well. Very well. Incredibly well in fact. But don’t get complacent and think the country has just uniformly fallen madly head-over-heals, I’d-die-without-you in love with brand DC and the conservatives.
The Tories will win Winchester. I think the Lib Dem brand is, erm, tainted by the delightful Mr Oaten.
105 Milburn has been completely invisible since C&N. More of a Portillo than a Thatcher I would say.
99. It’s easy to forget that we lost Winchester by just 4 votes in 1997, the first time.
I think Milburn actually doesn’t want it. He never struck me as a man who wanted to be leader. He also knows he won’t get it so why would he bother? He might be in a position to lead a rump party after the election if he wants to assuming what’s left doesn’t retreat to the left. But again, would he want to?
105 - Paul, I concur. I really don’t think either he wants it that badly or secondly he has the goal hangers assassins touch. He would provide a clear leadership, strong presentation, a proper and well delineated vision. He was experience, but has avoided the last four years in which the country has fallen out of love with nulab. I just don’t see it happening.
If you think D, Miliband is capable of filling the god father of progress’ shoes I think you are mistaken. There is a clear difference between the two men. The elder has a narrative for himself and his policies, the younger has neither.
108 - David, look at the local election results then. There was a backlash (06) but it appears to have subsided, especially as Martin Todd has been putting himself about the city.
110
Yeah! but I’ll bet you weren’t sad to see, ‘Whats-his-name’ lose.
110 - I don’t think we’ll win at a general election, Marcus. I think we will at a by-election. But wouldn’t that be, um, defecating on his doorstep and his party by Mr Oaten? One final pathetic indignity.
110. Was there a story that the MP for Winchester and his wife voted elsewhere in 97 and it was those votes that cost the seat or am I imagining that.
Torbay will be on 504 soon Marcus. Good result expected.
I am very sorry to disappoint the Tory posters here.
There is no byelection in Winchester.
I have not received an e-mail about it.
That is a fact.
Can anyone remember what Morus was predicting regarding projected Welsh MPs at the next UK GE. There was a thread very heavy on Welsh politics about 2-3 weeks ago, and Morus made a detailed, seat-by-seat analysis. I can remember he predicted Plaid Cymru at about 6 seats, but I cannot remember the others.
115, I don’t know, the fag end of his career can’t be any more undignified than earlier events.
Just started watching the 1983 G.E. results. Good explanations so far, and an excellent prediction from the exit poll. It is nostalgic for me because 1983 was the first GE that I stayed up for (I was 14).
In 1979 I was extremely annoyed at the local Conservatives driving round the neighbourhood very noisily with megaphones until 9:50pm, keeping me awake and trying to defend their 1974 majority of 163 votes.
Re Winchester, in the Lib Dems favour is that in past 2 local elections the Conservatives have lost ground.
In the Conservatives favour is that a by election would be on the old boundaries which help them.
A Lib Dem loss would be a “nail in the coffin” moment for Clegg.
119
Fag-end, is that a euphemism?
110 - too true but much has changed since then. In the last 11 years the lib dems have really bedded in. It will take a lot to remove them. I’m sure you’ll succeed elsewhere, as I’ve said in previous threads: Guildford, Romsey etc but I think Winch and Eastleigh are a different kettle of fish.
120. What majority for the Tories did the exit poll predict?
110. 2 not 4
1983. Also playing games like “Spot the corpse” and “Who he?”.
120 - Is it me of does Kate Aidey (1983 version) sound teddibly posh?
26 - The day that Hugh Bayley is invited back into the British Government is the day that I start looking at emigrating. He’s not the most detestable MP in the House, but he’s top 5.
124 - Almost the exact result. For Labour the poll was just one seat out!
I think the true answer to Mike’s question - do the 212 MPs at risk want a new leader? - is that they realise in their heart of hearts that they can’t win under Brown and that a change is inevitable but they haven’t yet worked up the courage to tell Gordon to his face or agreed a way in which he can be moved aside and a successor elected. But a few more polls like this will certainly assist their thinking.
A contest is desirable - I think the grassroots would not want another coronation - and there would be a lot to be said for holding it in late Summer so a new leader can rally the party at the Conference. However, I don’t see much sign that events are moving this quickly at the moment.
124. The exit poll prediction was
Con 398
Lab 208
L/SDP 21
Others 23
and the result of course was
Con 397
Lab 209
L/SDP 23
Others 21
128 - But he has such a wonderful toff-voice.
127, may be because modern newsreaders have all the gravitas of a deflated balloon. I do loathe newsreaders, particularly on the BBC. You aren’t a goddamned comedian, and you aren’t having a chat at a tea party, just read the bloody autocue and act like a grown-up you irritating cretins.
Rant over.
This is far too exciting for multi-tasking. I’m going to log off and watch properly.
Lol at the Tory at Torbay
Looks like he’s got a gun to the Returning Officer’s back!
Cruel raising of Liberal hopes in the first seat
Is Milburn that good? He seemed to be losing the last election before Brown stepped in, and his so-called change agenda at Health embarrassed Blair over the impossibility of booking appointments.
Well I’ve backed two to replace Brown. Straw at 50/1. I may have mentioned that before? Also Milburn at 20/1. Paul Linford makes a good case for Milburn.
I don’t think Miliband is ready or willing, Denham senior or experienced enough and Johnson will struggle to overcome his own statement that he is not up to the job.
137 - John L, its a narrative, its a vision, its at least a something.
137, never liked him. Seemed even smugger and slimier than Blair, but without the ability to connect.
Straw, Cruddas and Denham (not including Johnson as I doubt he’ll stand) remain Labour’s best hopes.
The Lib Dems will lose Winchester by around 5000-odd. There will be a big turnout of previously discouraged Tory voters, a fair bit of Lib Dem to Tory swithcing, while Lib Dem support will be hard to rouse. Labour will lose their deposit.
The Lib Dems will lose Winchester by around 5000-odd. There will be a big turnout of previously discouraged Tory voters, a fair bit of Lib Dem to Tory swithcing, while Lib Dem support will be hard to rouse. Labour will lose their deposit…
109
Milburn was invisible before C&N,and is invisible since. Pray, what is the difference?
139 — but which MPs are going to vote for a saviour who almost cost them the last election?
Oh, and back in the real world - Milburn will never, repeat NEVER be leader of the Labour party. He has no following AT ALL and is widely seen as a chiselling little spiv. Whether this is fair or not is beside the point. Don’t waste your money, guys. My bet would be on Straw or (my personal fave) Johnson.
Just enjoyed watching my seat returned safely in 1983. Interesting Lib result vs Labour, the start of something there I think.
Sorry - three post mentalism.
Milburn is obviously the candidate to try and make a bold attempt to push the Conservatives back, and keep Labour’s flag planted on Conservative territory. Ie. the candidate to fight for an overall majority at the next election rather than restrict losses/aim for a hung Parliament.
Whether that is what Labour need right now (I think too much of that territory is lost for the foreseeable future for it to be anything other than a suicidal attempt) is another matter. I think their core is far too fragile for them to be so blatantly disregarded.
141 - Hang on jeff. For that to happen you’d need the lib dem’s to be as unpopular in winch as labour were in C&N, run an equally appauling and poorly received campaign, get a crap candidate, and for all former lib voters to go to the Tories. Somehow i don’t think that’ll happen
141 - Potential big shifts in turnout figures could make predictions about size of majorities a bit meaningless.
Morning all,
Bad poll and 1983 on the telly. Someone somewhere is taking the p1ss.
Clearly something has got to give over at Labour HQ. How much of this are we supposed to take before someone will do something?
144 - I wasn’t suggesting he was a value bet, just an interesting (if highly improbable) option.
How many seats did Con vote rise by in 1983?
150 - I think all these 1983 comparisons are overdone.
Foot was far more popular and electable than Brown…
144 Well that view of him had certainly not occurred to me. He is at least capable of original thought, which puts him ahead of most members of the cabinet as far as I can see. To replace Brown Labour needs someone who can distance themselves from the current apology for a government - Straw and Johnson would find it harder to do that than, say, Milburn or Cruddas. I think Denham is a possibility as well, but he has not proved a success in his current job (I work in Higher Education and he is seen as remote and a bit disinterested in the sector).
148. Not at all. About an 11% swing on a turnout around 60% gets you there. Seems perfectly reasonable in the light of national polls, Oaten, momentum etc.
I used to like that guy Smith from Oxford. Got a terrible pudding-bowl haircut. Still lives in a council house I believe.
This poll is clearly a rogue. We are going through a mid-term sticky patch. The people will flock to the polls in 2010 to gratefully re-elect Labour. You just mark my words!!
PS - Anyone got 50p for the meter?