Why I am betting on a woman to succeed Gord
June 1st, 2008
Remember how the deputy was called wrongly for Alan Johnson?
The final Saturday of June last year saw a big political betting event come to a climax - who would come out on top in Labour’s hugely complicated electoral system in the ballot to be Gordon’s deputy. The polls said Alan Johnson, the betting said Alan Johnson, even Sky News and the Daily Telegraph website above called it for Alan Johnson only a few minutes before the big announcement was made.
Yet when the results came it was Harriet Harman, who I had got on at nearly 9/1 and had tipped here 23 days earlier. My argument then was that in the complex exhaustive ballot process the vast bulk of trade union, MP and ordinary member voters would place a woman within their top two or three choices. Also the polls showed that women members and trade unionists were significantly more likely to support a female candidate from the list of six that they were presented with.
My belief is that the same thing could happen in the next contest for Labour leader. For the one sure thing is that there will be a contest - nobody is going to be given a Brown-style coronation for many years to come. And when this occurs you could see a raft of candidates getting nominated including, surely, one or two women.
Just looking at last June and the complex election mechanics within the three electoral colleges which each getting a third of the votes and there’s a strong case for saying that a woman will make it to the final two - and the bigger the field the bigger chance of it going to the female front-runner.
There are a number of possibilities:-
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Perhaps they could take it in turns? Like the Conservative Party, they could have four leaders in a row while in opposition: a young one, a useless one, an old one, and then an electable one.
1. Ruth Kelly
2. Harriet Harman
3. Margaret Beckett
4. Hilary Benn*4. Someone who isn’t even an MP yet **
* When Hilary Benn was elected as an MP in the 1999 by-election, my mother heard the name and asked me “Oh, is she Tony Benn’s daughter?” so I said “No, he’s his son.”
** In about 1997 or 1998, I distinctly remember Anthony King predicting that the next Conservative PM would be “someone who isn’t even an MP yet”.
O/T
In November, I will not trust any exit polls…
I don’t think a contest is a “sure thing” at all.
o/t - i see all those drinkers on the tube made their point really well!
3 A contest eventually is a sure thing but not this side of a GE IMO .
Rejoice!! Rejoice!!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/7429638.stm
How wonderful to see the spirit of freedom is not dead. How wonderful to see that the campaign against, the nanny state, the dreadful controls on the freedom of the individual, so elequently opposed by the one time editor of the ‘Spectator’ and well known libertarian Boris Johnson, has spurred so many young people into action.
This dreadful authoritarian who has become London Mayor,(Strangely also called Boris Johnson, are they perhaps related?) must be removed from office, before he turns our capital city into a concentration camp.
Hmmmm I note this wonderful display of’ Libertarianism in action’ was arranged by the Manifesto Club, prominent member a good Muslim girl called Munira Mirza, is she the same Munira Mirza who has just appointed to an £80,0000 a year position by Boris Johnson.? Surely Not!
Pretty girls too! does like pretty girls, our Boris doesn’t he!!
Mike, isn’t this a bit patronising. The Labour Party will elect a woman as leader - just because she’s a woman.
I accept some female Labour members voted for Harman because of her sex, but that was for the deputy position which is fairly insignificant. When electing a leader (possible PM) they will go for the best candidate regardless.
On your list you can definitely rule out Ruth Kelly. Even though she’s the most competent, her strong religious convictions are a no-no for ‘touch-feely inclusive’ backbenchers.
Interesting article in the Telegraph by Frank Field.
“Labour can thank its lucky stars Salmond hasn’t already acted. Action is also required because the English Question is now being taken up seriously by the BNP.
As with immigration, a failure to debate the issue at Westminster will result in voters finding other ways of voicing their deeply held beliefs.
Voters are on the move. Once the BNP gets a sizeable cut of the Labour working class vote across the country, it may be impossible for a Labour Government, no matter how talented, to re-establish the status quo: a horrible and needless way for Labour England to die.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/06/01/do0104.xml
I would also like to take this opportunity to thank all PBer’s who read the Daily Star and voted in their Poll - “Would you live in a BNP town?” YES 99% NO 1%
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/39359/Brown-s-driving-Brits-to-vote-BNP/
Tessa Jowell has way to much baggage to stand a chance in an open contest. Her duplicity is well documented on many topics especially the berlusconi bung and the Olympics fiasco. Private Eye have chapter and verse on her.
Jacqui Smith wont even be an MP after the next election so we are left with Harman, Kelly and Cooper. Does anyone really think one of these people can rebuild Labour in opposition?
6 - I think you mistake the “spirit of freedom”, with the “spirit of getting drunk”
A woman? Possibly.
English? Definitely:
‘Brown urged to get rid of ‘Scots Mafia”
Stephen Ladyman, a former minister and the Labour MP for the marginal English seat of South Thanet, said: “It is important to recognise that the election is won or lost in England. We need to have English voices speaking and giving messages that make sense in English communities.”
Keith Vaz, a former minister and a member of Labour’s national executive committee, called for Brown to appoint an English deputy prime minister.
Some MPs believe that Alan Johnson, the health secretary, or James Purnell, the work and pensions secretary, could be given new roles as the English “spokesmen” for the Government.
One Labour MP, who asked not to be named, reportedly said: “We live in a world where there is a quota for women MPs and there may soon be quotas for black MPs. Why should there not be quotas for the English too? The Scots Mafia have dominated Brown’s team for too long.”“
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/politics/Brown-urged-to-get-rid.4140049.jp
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_mafia
Eddie Barnes and Murdo MacLeod also report that, in relation to the four Scots in the cabinet (Gordon Brown, Alistair Darling, Dougie Alexander and Des Browne): “… some English MPs privately question their ability to communicate with voters south of the border.”
However that is not their only weakness, because they are piss-poor at communicating with voters north of the border too.
8
There’s a difference!
If Ken had imposed that ban, the one person you could have guaranteed would have attacked that decision would have been, ‘Boris Johnson’
The, ‘Spekkie’ and the, ‘Bellylarf’ would have heaped derision on Ken he’d have been called a dictator etc., Boris does it and its a ‘Good Thing.’
Seant, our spokesman for the Libertarian movement, despite my constant goading, hasn’t commented on the ban once, obviously with an eye too further employment by Boris.
“English spokesman for the Govt”
lol
As a woman, may I be allowed to say that I feel that the standard of female Labour MPs in the present Parliament to be generally abysmal? I dread “The Sisterhood” each PMQs when a bunch of badly dressed women, looking like the before on a daytime TV make-over show, sit behind the Prime Minister. My heart sinks when one of them gets up and, looking like a terrified rabbit in the headlights, gabbles an obviously planted question,usually mangling any humorous punchline. She then sits down with obvious relief to pats on the back from the rest of “The Sisterhood.” They are an embarrassment.
As to the list of possible women who could be Prime Minister, is the Labour Party really that desperate?
Obama
explaining here : http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/22996214#24909888
why and how he is quitting the Church “where I found Jesus Christ”.
coldstone - good for you! the very generation which had a good time in the 60s and 70s have spent the rest of their careers denying opportunities to young people (just try showing nowadays the same level of dissent in universities which the oldies enjoyed and see what happens to your exam marks!)and above all freedom to enjoy themselves. Frustration leads to waste of talent and resources and ultimately violence. What’s our answer? More prohibition! You know it (doesn’t) make sense!
“Libertarians” are no different to other fanatics - any views they don’t agree with can only really be dealt with by a healthy dose of book burning.
So massive centralised databases, hearsay evidence, detention without trial, and now an entire bureaucracy licenced to monitor us:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/law/article4036231.ece
I said to SeanT a little back that although everyone thought Labour were crap, I didn’t detect much hatred of them, beyond the hard right. Well, I was wrong. Stuff like this must stir up hatred in everyone else too.
Will Brown resign voluntarily before the next GE? - No!
Will he resign voluntarily after badly losing the next GE - No!
The next leader of the Labour party will be he or she who, like Thatcher, has the spheres to take him on against the odds.
re 10. Being a libertarian involve believing that individuals should be able to do what they want as long as they do not impact negatively on others.
Clearly Coldstone you don’t uses buses and trains in the late evening. Drunks are a curse and can make other passengers feel threatened.
Re. 9 - For once I agree wholeheartedly with Stuart Dickson.
I think that Mike is doing an excellent job of filling space with interesting stuff when nothing is actually happening. What depresses me on this sunny summer sunday morning is that we have at least eighteen months of waiting until the actual hideously long and over extended 2010 General Election campaign kicks off in a hangover on 2nd January 2010. The seven week 1992 General Election will feel like a snap election in comparison. Mind you as Labour are bust they won’t be able to run a formal campaign for more than a few weeks - but we can endlessly pontificate about that over the next 80 weeks or so.
14
“Libertarians” are no different to other fanatics” — isn’t ridiculous and dishonnest to associate as you do fanaticism with Libertarianism!?
16 Not sure which of Mike’s five suggested nominees fits the bill, so to speak, but Ruth Kelly is probably the best value at the odds currently quoted.
15
I think this centralisation of data is more an effect of computers and the new kind of risks that threatened civil society (virus, terrorism, contamination, etc.) immanent to the process of globalisation than linked to a political party.
In other words, control and communication will also increase, I think, with Cameron and with Obama.
21
Clinton’s DOD had a good formula for it: FULL-SPECTRUM DOMINANCE
The goal? unifying both the Police and the Army into one single machine, and thus eradicating the barriers between foreign and domestics affairs, and sharing datas and informations.
It also aimed at integrating TELEVISION into the military-police apparatus — to win hearts and minds.
It seems to me that Dawn Primarola is even more dreadful than the Labour MPs mentioned so far.
Ought she not to be included on your list, Mike?
Ah well, it is nice to have some rocks of predictability in this all too turbulent world.
As seemingly the entire planet conspires to trip up the Labour Party, and the editorial slants of every newspaper from the Northern Scot to the London Evening Standard appear to be forever drifting further and further away from Brown’s government, it is great to see that Dr Brown can still rely on one rock-solid fan club: the staff of the Daily Record/Sunday Mail.
‘Prime Minister turns comic book hero’
“Brown features in the new edition of Marvel Comics’ Captain Britain.
He is seen telling the superhero and secret agents about alien “Skrulls” massing in the Cheviot hills and says he has told the Scottish First Minister. He also has to tackle three unnamed Cabinet colleagues who are really aliens in disguise.”
http://www.sundaymail.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2008/06/01/prime-minister-turns-comic-book-hero-78057-20590363/
Funny that. Most sentient beings would say that the Sunday Mail is itself best classified in the comic book genre, and the wonderfully successful exploits of the dashing Dr Brown feature in it every week.
It probably would take something on the scale of a full scale invasion from another planet before Brown ever picks up the phone to Alex Salmond.
I thought that 3 of Dr Brown’s Cabinet colleagues were “aliens”? Alistair Darling, Des Browne and Dougie Alexander
I wonder what on earth Sean will have to say at the concept of Gordon Brown helping to “protect the planet from alien invaders”.
20 I would be amused to see the reaction of Labour bloggers if Ruth Kelly got it. Along with Kate Hoey, and Frank Field, she is part of a trinity of hate figures for them.
10. Last night’s behaviour rather proves Boris Johnson’s point, don’t you think?
Mike @ 17. Either that, or Coldstone is one of the drunks
21 Even more likely than Smith to be sacked by the electorate I would think.
None of these names seem likely to me.
I do hope you’re wrong, Mike. Labour’s ‘top flight’ women are well-versed in the arts of condescension[sp] but little else.
It’s all very well electing bigoted Harriet, but if she won she’d drive away almost everyone with any sense.
White? Harriet doesn’t want someone of YOUR colour on her anti-white shortlists.
Male? Harriet doesn’t want someone of YOUR gender on her all-women shortlists.
I think Brown’s a bad PM, but at least he isn’t blatantly bigoted. Nor has he ever, so far as I know, referred to divorce as ‘good for choice’.
19 Phillipe - No it is not ridiculous!Just because you call yourself something is no guarantee that you will behave fairly to others who don’t share your label or your views. Your use of the word “dishonest” for my viewpoint which you clearly don’t agree with just goes to prove that you would, in other circumstances, have my views banned on “moral” grounds. Political formulas (of any description and including “libertarianism”) which are not tempered by empathy with fellow humans can easily turn a Freedom-loving ideology into an authoritarian or totalitarian one.
20. Peter from Putney
I suppose that Ruth Kelly does qualify as being English. Although her family background is Irish, she moved to England at a young age and was brought up there. And of course, crucially, she does represent an English constituency.
She is also not a complete numpty, like eg. Harperson. If Labour elects Harperson as their next leader then the entire Labour and Trades Union movement really will qualify for a group discount on a large number of full frontal lobotomies.
15 - It’s all very well getting outraged, but it still doesn’t answer the central issue. Take flytipping for example - a big problem for many local authorities. The only way you can reduce (deliberate) flytipping is by prosecuting those who do it. And the only way you can get successful prosecutions is by providing video evidence of it being done. Which requires surveillance under RIPA.
Now, the question is, do you oppose this, or do you object to the way that it is currently being authorised to occur?
10
You are missing my point, I support the ban, I’m 100% for it, but then I should, I’m an authoritarian ‘ol leftie, nothing I like better than stopping people doing things they enjoy.
Its the hypocrisy I’m pointing out, you sean (Who I respect) would have been down on Ken like a ton of bricks if he’d introduced that ban.
This site would have been chock-a-block with the so called, ‘Libertarians’ (Libertarianism shares one similarity with Marxism, it looks bloody good on paper) seant would have gorn cosmic, his screeds on the subject would have made his Eurorants pale into insignificance in comparison.
To paraphrase St Augustine, on chastity, ‘Lord! make me a Libertarian, but not just yet’
Ruth Kelly has the worst possible speaking voice, and is a religious nut. I would almost rather vote for Brown than her. She is not the person we need.
31 - I agree but i’m not an authoritarian. (although I’m perhaps undermining my case by consistently putting the “wrong” side of the argument on RIPA
). I like the smoking ban, and i like (although i have some doubts about its effectiveness) the idea of the drinking ban.
29
What!?
You’re kiding me, right?
“my viewpoint which you clearly don’t agree with”
You had not any point of view, mista!
You did not express nothing but absurdities or banalities!
Read yourself : “… Frustration leads to waste of talent and resources and ultimately violence. What’s our answer? More prohibition! You know it (doesn’t) make sense!
“Libertarians” are no different to other fanatics - any views they don’t agree with can only really be dealt with by a healthy dose of book burning.”
30 (con) - I suppose there’s a strong argument for
i) clearly defining the specific offences that surveillance can be used to detect
ii) specifically linking each RIPA surveillance request/authorisation and
iii) restricting the number of people who can authorise such requests
A bit like search warrants. But the powers of surveillance should exist, if appropriately authorised.
32. So Charlie, are all Christians who honestly try to follow the teachings of their church to be flippantly classified as “religious nuts” in your little world? No wonder Labour are on the fast road to their electoral Last Judgment.
Heres the problem with the woman idea. Who’s it going to be?
Harman? Do they want to win the next election? Deputy isnt anything like the real top job…could you have seen Prescott voted as leader, really?
If they have lost their heads, they can go ahead and vote Harmon.
*ii) clearly linking each RIPA surveillance request/surveillance to the purpose it is used for - ie. no general purpose surveillance.
and having a proper evidence file for each RIPA request, in advance of the request being made.
29
“Your use of the word “dishonest” for my viewpoint which you clearly don’t agree with just goes to prove that you would, in other circumstances, have my views banned on “moral” grounds.”
Paranoid.
I meant: why the hell do you include Libertarianism into the category of fanaticism?
***
It is also baseless to claim thant “libertarianism” is less or more empathic than, say, socialism.
Mike is right to pick up on the Harman tip. The Labour party election is (once you have the MP nominations) a largely technical exercise. Harman has the most experience in this area and women have a built in advantage.
In my opinion, for someone to beat Harman they will need to have a clear favourite from the off, who can demonstrably rise above the internal party debate. Milliband perhaps?
The issue that Harman is incapable of winning the election is probably largely irrelevant, I doubt she believes it.
36, I think he was referring to her membership of Opus Dei.
For those of you who wish to know more about the Manifesto Club, or perhaps even join; ’tis here.
http://www.manifestoclub.com/
Whoops-a-daisy!
‘Tory chairman perseveres with false credentials’
“… the Sunday Herald can reveal Fulton recently approved biographies to Debrett’s and Who’s Who that exaggerated his academic credentials.
He is also listed as “Professor” on the electoral roll and in the director’s section of Companies House.”
http://tinyurl.com/3nfqdk
Dearie dearie me. Falsifying your CV really is the absolute pits, and has been the downfall of many a prize prat. How low does your self-esteem have to be? Really?
Whatever the Scottish Conservative Party needs right now, it is certainly not an insecure, blooper-prone fantasist in the top chair.
22 Dawn Primarolo was in chage of tax crefts if I remember correctly. Her odds on becoming Labour leader must be 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 to 1 or thereabouts.
SURVEILLANCE AND AUTHORITY
Alex,
I agree thant powers of surveillance and control should exist (for they would anyway).
.
But I’d like to reverse your basic proposal, in order to avoid the multiplication of administrative power of control and surveillance:
– by suggesting it would be better to allow Internet users, for instance, to access the content of survellance cameras in public places (so prefering “no general purpose surveillance” to “clearly linking each RIPA surveillance request/surveillance to the purpose it is used for”)
47 tax credits
There could be an MEP by-election shortly.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4040000.ece
re 43. Thanks Jonathan - at last someone who understands the argument. If there are two or three front-runners PLUS Harriet/AN Other woman then the system favour the woman.
I’m not saying this is a good thing or a bad thing - but that it is likely to be a great bet - just as it was on Harriet last June.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7429701.stm
Usual Labour tactic… if in doubt, legislate.
Still waiting for the 1997 manifesto commitment to legislate to prevent top up fees.
If Labour’s next leadership election is after the GE, how many women MPs will be around to vote (overwhelmingly) for a woman? I am sure that the women MPs tend to be in more marginal seats.
Of course, the college does reduce the influence of MPs (compared to say the early rounds of Tory leaderships), but I am sure that the proportion of female MPs in Labour is higher than it will be next time.
50 - we don’t get MEP by-elections, we just take one off the party list.
51. The main issue asuide though surely is that the party will look to a winner. They will bear in mind the Brown saga.
50. If he resigns, the next person on the list takes over. The things I could tell you about our MEP’s but can’t legally say so..
On the main point, wasn’t the deputy leadership election a bit like a by election. Elect Harriett because it won’t really change anything. Surely a leadership election will be seen as a bit more serious. Then again, they did elect Foot and Kinnock.
“Two new oilfields should be a cause for celebration. West Don and Don South West will together add an extra 50,000 barrels of oil a day coming ashore in Scotland when the development begins producing early next year.”
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2310552.0.our_oil_but_who_profits.php
‘Scotland’s oil … an idea whose time has come?’, by Iain Macwhirter
“The economics of independence are transformed. Only a year ago, Labour was saying confidently that Scotland would be bankrupt if it went alone, not least because oil production had nearly halved from the 1999 peak. However, there is still around 25 billion barrels in the North Sea, worth around $2 trillion, and oil companies are exploring previously uneconomic fields. A report by the accountancy firm Grant Thornton last week claimed that an independent Scotland would have a budget surplus of £4.4bn, based on 82.5% of North Sea revenues.
… it coincides with a growing feeling in Scotland that, this time round, we won’t be fooled again.”
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2310554.0.scotlands_oil_an_idea_whose_time_has_come.php
‘Oil ‘would make independent Scotland rich”
“Soaring oil prices would give an independent Scotland a £4.4 billion budget surplus, making it one of Europe’s richest countries, according to a new study.”
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article3954031.ece
56 - but Kinnock actually did change things. Odd thing is that he was seen then as a left winger, and I don’t think people expected him to change things.
48 - Not sure what you’re proposing.
BY CHOOSING A WOMEN LIKE HER
Can McCain pick a lot of Clinton feminine supporters?
60
“Sarah Palin, the beautiful conservative Republican governor of Alaska, would be an ideal choice to help McCain” as VP
57. And when the Shetlands declare independence?
58. He was still uneclectable though even if he did sow the seeds for Blair.
‘ Gordon Brown must answer English Question’, by Frank Field
“Devolution will mean assemblies that treat equally the four components of the United Kingdom. A UK Parliament will then deal only with those matters that have not been delegated to the four assemblies.
If Mr Brown initiates debate at Westminster on the English Question, he has a chance of setting the parameters and the timescale under which the debate will be completed.
He needs to act quickly. Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, has shown himself to be politically more artful than a cartload of monkeys. It can only be a matter of time before Mr Salmond publicly does a deal with the other Nationalists to declare that they will not vote at Westminster on purely English matters. What do Scottish Labour MPs do then?
Labour can thank its lucky stars Salmond hasn’t already acted.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/06/01/do0104.xml
Point of Information Mr Field:
- Alex Salmond has already “acted”: Scottish National Party MPs (and, incidentally, David Mundell, the sole Scottish Tory MP) already abstain on English-only votes in the House of Commons. Indeed, they have always done so!
I though that Frank Field was supposed to be super-bright? I am very, very surprised if he claims not to be aware of this fact.
6 “Rejoice!! Rejoice!!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/7429638.stm ”
What a bunch of @rseholes. Anyone who supports a bunch of drunken pillocks like that must be a cretin.
I put a bet on Jacqui Smith as next Labour Leader a few weeks ago when she was 50/1. The big danger is that she’ll lose her seat at the next election, but if Labour chooses to replace Gordon before then, I can’t think of a better candidate - people are fed up with what they perceive to be Brown’s “out of touch” nature, and of the culture of spin which seems evident when most cabinet members give interviews and just spout the party line parrot fashion, e.g. “David Cameron will be subject to much greater scrutiny now” etc.
Jacqui Smith however seems to always say clearly what she’s thinking, which is not only a refreshing change from politicians who just churn out identical soundbites, but also gives the impression that she understands people’s problems, which (regardless of whether he does or not) Brown seems not too. She also stood up well to the mauling she got from the Police, and she’s had the experience of holding a great office of state. If Brown goes before the next election, my money’s on her.
Labour almost always goes for the ’safe’ option as leader. If the rule in Tory leadership contests is to back an outsider, then the rule in Labour contests is to back the favourite. I don’t see any woman in that role.
The contest for the deputy’s position was very different. One reason Harman did well as a woman was because it was already known that Brown would become leader, and there is a feeling among some - probably quite a lot - on the left that there is a need for ‘balance’ by having a woman as deputy. Those dynamics don’t apply to the leadership election.
Mike’s got an excellent track record of betting and tipping, but two of his few mistakes was in predicting Royal for the French presidency (the electorate always choose the woman the first time they get the chance), and Cruddas for the Labour deputy leadership - though to be fair, I can’t remember whether that was a straight call or a tip as a value bet.
To reach the top as a woman requires incredible strength of character - more than is required of a man because of the barriers put in the way by expectations and life events. While Harman would almost certainly challenge for the leadership if there was a leadership election this side of a General Election (though I don’t think there will be), I can’t see her doing any better than Beckett did in 1994 - she’ll be thanked and politely ignored.
Basically IMO (talking to myself) I think the criticism of the use of RIPA focusses on the wrong things. I don’t see that there is any issue involved in organisations using surveillance powers against people who are breaking the law. (it is nonsensical IMO to effectively argue, as one of the MPs does in that Times article, that it is right that people committing wrongdoing and breaking the law should be caught, but only through the use of certain (non RIPA) powers - which effectively means that they won’t be caught).
The issue is the potential misuse of the powers - to use them to frame people for crimes they haven’t committed, to use them for fishing expeditions (”coz you know they’re guilty of something but not sure what”). All the issues, in fact, that theoretically surround the issuing of Police Search Warrants.
These issues are avoided by ensuring that proper authorisation, which should require an appropriate level of evidence to justify suspicion and a clear statement of what that suspicion is, signed off by an individual who has the requisite seniority/training to ensure that the the procedure is being correctly followed and that the request is legitimate under the law.
Mike is right that Harman/AN woman has a chance of being PM because of their electoral system.
It is wide open to a Caroline Hunt type of minister who I personally find unattractive on both the physical and mental aspects.
If Hazel Blears had spent less time as Blair’s apologist and spent more time building; the Labour party organisation and union links, she would have become IMHO the Deputy Leader and been a strong candidate for Leader.
As one poster puts it for all the numbers they have, this is a very poor crop of women candidates. Has AWS also created a shallow talent pool?
68 should be Caroline Flint (shows how unattractive she is)
68 - Caroline Hunt? (Flint?)
Don’t know why the Labour women get all the stick for asking patsy questions or apparently being useless. It’s not like Labour male MPs go out of the way to stand out.
71, true, but the men in the leadership do have one or two who are alright or at least noticeably less bad than others (Denham, Johnson). Whereas the women are almost universally dire (Hoey excepted).
The MOS did a piece on Ms Flint recently..
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-1019770/Hello-boys-Meet-Caroline-Flint-flirtatious-Minister-whos-turned-Downing-Street-catwalk.html
According to the ARRSE, Brown’s ‘delaying’ £2bn of defence spending.
Soldiers not happy, rather obviously.
http://arrse.co.uk/cpgn2/Forums/viewtopic/t=97961.html
67 The conundrum of RIPA use is not that it is used against people who are breaking the law but that it is used against people who are thought to be breaking the law . Does it’s use to help to convict wrongdoers outweigh it’s intrusion into the privacy of people who it does not provide such evidence ?
Those who approve of RIPA will no doubt also say that the sooner we all have a microchip implanted into our brains that can be accessed to check for criminal acts or even thoughts , the closer we will be to a crime-free society .
The Conservative campaign in Henley kicks off by going for the soft underbelly of the non-local other candidates.
A few weeks ago the Lib Dem candidate was quoted as saying “I am now settled in Plymouth and I love it”.
http://tinyurl.com/4aeqvf
Looks to me that it is all over. The Lib Dem fell at the first fence.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tories-include-clegg-in-hung-parliament-plans-837810.html
Clegg probably keen to avoid this Tory honey trap.
76 Well it has to do that as the Conservative party has no policies it can put forward as a positive message .
Ruth Kelly’s problem if the Leadership is after the election is that she would be too busy trying to find a new safe Labour seat to get back into Parliament like Twigg after 2005 surely. Unless a quick By-Election in … how Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath.
It could well be that whoever the front runner to replace GB (if GB lasts until the GE) will do a Portillo in 2010.
78 Mark do you agree that the Lib Dems have made a fundamental mistake with the candidate they selected?
78. Whereas the Lib Dems have 2 sets of policy depending on who they are talking to.
77 “Tory strategists believe the Lib Dems will lose heavily to the Conservatives in the South-west, but gain seats from Labour in the North.” - Do they include Cornwall? I thought only Truro and St Austell vulnerable. Is that right.
81 Probably .
75 - But all investigations are into people who are “thought to breaking the law”. That is why i emphasised having a certain level of evidence before the powers are authorised ie. it shouldn’t be a case of a member of the public accusing someone of something, and the next step being to launch a surveillance operation - there should be some intermediate evidence gathering, to provide justification. And that is perhaps what is missing at the moment.
(although on a matter of interest it would be interesting to know the figures for the number of RIPA surveillance operations that end in prosecutions - i suspect it would be a lot higher than that implied by your assertion that most people watched are only “thought to be breaking the law”. The surveillance doesn’t tell council officers that they are breaking the law, it provides the evidence that will prove it in a court of law)
78
LOL
Mark you as know as well as I do that every time the Conservatives announce a policy, Labour steal it as they have none of their own. Brown’s “not the Queens speech” made this clear. Keeping ones poweder dry is the Conservative policy just now methinks, and its absolutely the right thing to do.
Your microchip example is just fatuous.
86 - “every time the Conservatives announce a policy” it is usually a reheated LD one.
Alex,
If surveillance is not a monopoly of the state, of the police, then it will not be possible to “to frame people for crimes they haven’t committed” for no data is loss on the web.
78 Whereas the LibDems, in contrast, are up to their armpits in policy, are they? Policies like “give the voters a referendum on the Euro Constitution/Treaty.” Oh, sorry, that was you “mispeaking”. In your manifesto.
86 MTF I agree that Labour steal and adopt Conservative policies that is why the country is in a economic crisis , Conservative policies always lead the country into recession .
89 - I think you’ve misunderstood what this is all about. It’s not simply about CCTV cameras. They are only relevant to RIPA because, I think, you need authorisation to “fix” a CCTV camera on one spot.
Most directed surveillance under RIPA is about having officers wandering about with video cameras watching people misusing parking permits, blue badges, flytipping etc.
Quite what that has to do with allowing the public with access to CCTV cameras i don’t know - the only effect that would have would make it easier for criminals to plan successful crimes!
i do not kno, inded i ma hav missed somthing, and as peason sa maths is not my forte, but i hav just finished on the ‘phone to my bookie. Havin put a good honest £1 (hem-hem) on each of these game gurls, as long as one of them sucessfule ‘dip for the tape’, as they sa, my £5 turns into anything from £17 to £67. peason reckoned it “a good covering pos. to underpin further, but closer fought, forays into this fascinating field ect. ect. drone drone, chizz chizz…”
me? i don’t care who wins or why. just as long as i win. cheers, cheers, hurrah for skool…
87 Alex , the microchip example was perhaps tongur in cheek but the justification for it was in fact argued for by a Labour supporter in a debate I had on another blog some time ago .
91 Lab Dim classic. the coming recession is the fault of the Tories cos Labour stole their policies. A new low.
84 Thanks Mark.
There are a couple of policy statements on the leaflet for example on car tax.
With wi-fi technologies, all cameras’s content (including the officers’) can be public, on the Net. Not onlu CCTV!!!
86 Labour steal the words not the policies - so you get talk of choice and devolving power but the fact of Kelly’s speech designating local authorities as delivery agents for central policies; the fact of Home Office plans to have police commissions appointed by the Home Secretary rather than police authorities.
There is another vote - possibly more important for most of us than is 42 days - coming up on Government plans to put planning decisions for major projects in the hands of unelected officials, so that third runways, nuclear power stations, new roads, new towns can all be decided by “experts” - appointed by ministers to deliver decisions based on pre-set assumptions of public good.
97 - I don’t think you’ve quite thought this through…
[77] There isn’t going to be a hung Parliament. The Tories will win a landslide majority. That is as certain a call as Blair’s was in 1995. Labour will have fewer seats than in any post-war Parliament. (Indeed, they may even win fewer than they did in 1935). Cameron may even obtain over 50% of the popular vote, although I think he will fall a little short. He will certainly have a mandate of a strength that no Prime Minister (other than the wartime coalition) has ever had in our lifetimes, far stronger than Thatcher’s or Blair’s.
And the opposition will stay fragmented. During the next Parliament, Conservative support will fall to around 40%, with the rest more or less equally split between Labour, Liberal Democrat, and the far right (in England, SNP/Plaid in Scotland/Wales).
It doesn’t matter who Labour chooses in defeat. They will never be a party of government again - the Tories will be in for 20 years, by the end of which time I (and a few others here) will be past caring much.
92
“the only effect that would have would make it easier for criminals to plan successful crimes!”
So give the police a monopoly on surveillance ’cause bad guys might misuse them!
‘Makes me think of those Lefties saying to the government : “take their guns and give them to the police!” — they just don’t realize that guns and all powerful weapon shall never be monopolized by the State.
95 LOL Conservative classic , Labour steal our policies but it is not our policies that have put the country into an economic crisis .
I still do not think the country will experience a recession as it is generally defined unless of course the Conservatives win the next GE in which case they will take the country into one as they always do .
95
Oh really Mark… Was it Tory policy to spend 1 trillion quid we haven got, double the nation debt, flog our gold reserves for peanuts, underfund the armed forces, mismanage the FSA (leading to Nothern Rock, dissemble about nearly every Govt statistic, redraw the rules for the golden rule, and tax the nation till the pips sqeak.
I could expand this further but that’ll do for now.
103 You are the one who said Labour steal Conservative policies - are you now backtracking on that statement ?
101 - the logical extension to your argument is to abolish CCTV cameras, not to have them ALL available (all hundreds of thousands of them!) in real time on the internet.
Coldstone.Proud of your Underground party? You behave exactly as predicted when BJ was elected, which is why you are so boring.Do your best to undermine anything he does, then claim you were right all along.What would you say to a peaceful passenger trying to get home but frightened off? So what?
Putting on the pressure:
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Miliband-told-not-to-miss.4139928.jp
106 - I think Coldstone said he was in favour of the drinking ban. It’s the silence of those like SeanT who you would have expected to have been vigorous with their oppositional rhetoric he’s highlighting.
104 no dont be silly, you know perfectly well what I am saying. Try to be sensible. I knnow its difficult for you, but have a try.
99
I think you are missing something or simply unable to understand my poor english:
The problem here is thant technocrats are being authorised to surveil people by using cameras and other means of surveillance and control.
My point is that those state people shall not have a monopoly on those means and informations such as telephone records and e-mailing.
Privacy is a myth in our cybernetic society
In order to preserve our liberty, we shall get rid of the illusion of privacy.
Better an immanent surveillance than a police-controlled one, no?
SO - in Mark Senior World:
Everything good = LibDem policy (but gets stolen)
Everything bad = LibDems wouldn’t have done it like that….
105
Impossible to abolish cameras! I’m pragmatic.
109 Well I am puzzled by some of the contradictions in your post and Conservative criricism of the government . If they have spent money we haven’t got and put the country into massive debt , where is the money coming from to fund the increased spending on armed forces , slash IHT , cut fuel tax and cut personal tax that you and your party are promising .
112 - banning CCTV is back to authoritarianism again.
105
As impossible to abolish cameras as to abolish guns, come on!, it’s not ‘logical’!
110 - Yes and you have invented some ‘fantasy’ scenario whereby it would be possible to hook up every video camera in the land to the internet and broadcast to the world.
You don’t even have to argue if that is desirable or not because it is ridiculous.
11 I haven’t mentioned LibDem policies neing stolen or not at all , it is Conservative policies being stolen by Labour which has been the claim from posters supporting your party .
114
Plus this project is based on the false illusion that State or any other “Authority” actually has the power to eradicate guns and/or CCTV — those are quasi-autonomous, self-reproductive machines, developping and evoluting through many generations; and us, users, we are all cyborgs, blind without cameras, and impotent without guns.
119 - I’m sorry you’ve completely lost me.
Is Mark Senior an avatar?
I see that Alan Milburn has made a few suggestions in the Sunday Times:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article4039938.ece
You might even call this a manifesto.
Avatar ‘an embodiment, a bodily manifestation of the Divine’
I don’t think so.
100 Whilst I personally almost concede the next GE already,I would roughly guess the outcome as :
Conservative c.40% popular vote
Labour c.31-32% popular vote
Lib Dems c.18%
With tactical unwind,some anti-Labour tactical voting and a disproportionate no.of southern Lib Dems falling casualty,
in VERY approximate terms,I would guess an overall Tory majority of between 20 and 50 -ie 335-350 Conservative MPs.Around mid to high 30s for the Lib Dems,the usual 27-29 ‘others’,so that would leave between 235 and 250 Labour MPs-a heavy loss of seats from 2005,but not utterly catastrophic
123 lol
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avatar_(computing)
125
link doesnt work
Avatar (computing)
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
•An avatar (abbreviations include av ,and avi and “avvie”) is a computer user’s representation of himself or herself, whether in the form of a three-dimensional model used in computer games,[1] a two-dimensional icon (picture) used on Internet forums and other communities,[2][3] or a text construct found on early systems such as MUDs. It is an “object” representing the embodiment of the user.
It’s such a shame the Conservatives still bicker with the LDs, especially now the Conservatives are increasingly alligned behind the LD position on income tax, IHT, green taxes, ID cards, Iraq…
(Designed to annoy Tories on this site. You don’t have to rise to the bait, but feel free to!)
127. Given Mark Senior’s posts I imagine the feeling’s mutual.
124 That’s just about what I’d expect too. A lot will depend if the Lib Dems can attract more of the Labour core vote in the north. If not, they will fall back to 17-18. If they can get support in Liverpool, Newcastle, Manchester etc. they could move up 2,3,4 points at Labour’s expense.
127, hehehe. You’re right. Your party is completely redundant:p
127. Strangely enough the Tories don’t agree with the Lib Dems’ main policy though, which is to support Labour governments at all times.
Mark Senior. You are barking up the wrong tree. Labour cannot possibly have stolen any Tory policies. It is not possible to steal something that does not exist.
The real problem we have in this country is that in the face of a seemingly moribund government our electorate seems intent on voting in a policyless, meaningless opposition.
Where Cameron’s Conservatives really have learned from New Labour is that electoral politics is now just one tactic after another - and they have taken it to another level. So for example, 2 years ago, we were going green by voting blue, whereas in Crewe we were saving the threatened lesser spotted 4×4 owners.
It is a common jibe amongst Tories at Lib Dems that they give mixed messages, but fundamentally their policies and programme for government are fairly much on show. The current Conservative Party will genuinely say anything to anyone - partly because their policies amount to a back of an envelope set of vagueries - but probably mainly (and we can only surmise this) because they are concerned that if they reveal their true intentions the electorate will run off scared as quickly as they arrived.
132. [blub] yes, it’s all so unfair, isn’t it?
131 - like over Iraq, foundation hospitals, academies…
130 - I am happy if the LDs act as a think tank for the Tories. If the Tories implement LD policies, that’s fine by me.
Can’t comment on the thread as I don’t think the vacancy will arise soon enough for meaningful speculation… On the US campaign, I assume Hillary will suspend her effort after the primary season ends and the superdelegates jump, but there’s no particular reason for her to concede unless there’s a deal. She can just wait and see if anything turns up before the convention, either a deal or a reason why Obama obviously won’t win. Remember that there is no such thing as a legally-pledged delegate - any delegates can change their minds if they want to. A number have already switched from Clinton to Obama and more will probably follow, but it can go the other way too if anything devastating emerges. I’m not expecting it, but those of you who’ve bet on the outcome shouldn’t really expect a payout till the convention.
Ukpaul’s analysis (and self-analysis) of the reasons and ways that we support Presidential candidates (near the end of last night’s thread) was an interesting new angle and worth catching up on if people missed it.
To reply to Morris Dancer - I understand your point about untrustwortiness in the private sphere being of public interest. My point was just that sexual infidelity is sometimes condoned by the partner (open marriages and all that), and it’s possible for the public to get outraged on behalf of someone who doesn’t actually feel betrayed at all, so one should be a bit cautious. I’ve no idea whether that was the case in the particular cases under discussion, and don’t really want to know.
The question of whether genuinely bad private behaviour rubs off on public behaviour is interesting and the evidence isn’t too clear. In theory there simply has to be some sort of link: someone who is completely unscrupulous privately will surely not be a completely reliable paragon in his work. In practice I dunno - there are a lot of examples of past and present philanderers who seem decent enough in their work, and equally cases of people with unimpeachable private lives who were crooks at work. Maybe we underestimate how much people rationalise and compartmentalise their behaviour?
17 - on the plus side it will probably only need 2 MPs to start proceedings against Brown after the election, rather than the 71 it needs now
“Ruth Kelly, who always appears able…” Come on, Mike. Look at how badly she handles her current brief, recently referring to railway lines that don’t exist, insisting on seeing all train operators’ proposals (even minor ones) before approval and being completely anomymous during the fuel price debate…. No chance of being leader!
127 SBS, when the LibDems propose a policy, it is flaky. When the Tories subsequently propose a similar policy, it has the gravitas of a Govt. in waiting. That must be tough….
124. The current spread markets agree completely with you and you and they are much lower than the polls suggest
137, lack of connection with reality, micromanaging control freak.. sounds perfect to take over from Brown.
More seriously, it would be pretty awful if any of those women, most especially Harman, took over.
If Brown did go I think they might line up behind Straw, who would take the GE hit, leaving longterm leaders untarnished by defeat.
Hmm. If it weren’t for 42 days I’d be more confident Brown would see the next GE as leader. But Cameron dug him a hole a few PMQs ago and he jumped right in it.
Letts [I know he is hardly non partisan!] reporting that as Harriet was announced as winner of the Deputy leader contest, there were gasps from the audience and a young woman near him mouthed ‘F***!’ before dropping her head in her hands.
I suspect that many people casting their vote for her at some level of the voting system never expected her to win but voted for her for the reasons Mike set out.
They were blind to idea that the psychology they saw as individual to them was in fact widely shared, partially because as you go down listing your preferences you invest less and less in it.
I see that Mr Cameron - unless it is just mischief-making on his part - is offering Nick Clegg the position of Home Secretary if the Conservatives do well at the next general election. David Davis loses again, eh?
But would it not make beter sense to install Liberal Democrats as the entire Cabinet? (with Conservative support, of course).
That way the Tories need not take the trouble to think up any policies of their own at all. All they would have to do at the next geneal election is go round saying “We now agree with Liberal Democrat policies” and “We hate Gordon Brown”. Which is all they are saying at the moment.
138 - “gravitas of a Govt. in waiting” - I love your irony!
[124][129] You expect Labour to recoup 7-8% of the vote from its present position. For the life of my, I can’t think of a single reason why it should.
[132] Paul, I’m sure you read the link at [122]. Milburn’s proposals for long-term care are exactly what the Tories will do in office - because “individual budgets” are the easy way to underfund services and increase personal contributions without anyone noticing. As for taxing the low-paid less, who was it who wanted to tax them more? And what “rigorous” rules for housing and welfare allocation means, other than an approach based on race rather than need, I’ve no idea. (I’m not saying that would be unpopular - far from it - England is, at bottom, always has been, a racist society.)
[144] second line - “the life of me”, of course
141 - “Letts [I know he is hardly non partisan!] reporting that as Harriet was announced as winner of the Deputy leader contest, there were gasps from the audience and a young woman near him mouthed ‘F***!’ before dropping her head in her hands.”
Clearly a punter who lost a fortune by laying Harriet at generous odds.
133. Uh? What’s unfair? I don’t think it is unfair. All’s fair in love and war and all that.
I just think that it will come undone quickly for the Tories, because the party has been sucked dry of any policies or principles - or if it hasn’t then it is desperately trying to keep out of view the ones that it knows are unpopular. My point, (if you learned to understand a wider point) is that Cameron’s Tories have become so obsessed w