“And Last, But Not Least…”
June 2nd, 2008
Who ever thought it would get this far?
It feels as though decades have passed since Hillary Clinton formally announced her candidacy for the Democratic Party nomination for President of the United States on January 22nd, 2007. Barack Obama formally entered the contest on February 10th, 2007. Over sixteen months and $335m later, the final two states in this mammoth contest will cast their votes, and likely hand Barack Obama his party’s nomination to face John McCain in November.
On the basis of these primaries, South Dakota will award 15 pledged and Montana 16 pledged delegates which, if Obama wins by the margins expected, would leave him only a handful of delegates away from the 2,117 needed to secure an absolute majority at the Convention in Denver.
The polls for these states have been almost as sparse as their populations, but the headline figures from the most recent of these seem to indicate that Obama enjoys a lead of 52%-35% in Montana, and 46%-34% in South Dakota.
Demographically, Montana and South Dakota have a great deal in common. Both states are overwhelmingly white, with Native Americans forming that largest ethnic minority, and very few African Americans. Gun ownership is unsurprisingly high given the rural nature of both states, and they attract tourists primarily for their respective natural wonders of Big Sky and Badlands. Mount Rushmore in South Dakota (which I considered far too cliched to select as the graphic for this post) attracts 2m tourists a year, and the leisure industry (including hunting) is key in supporting the local economies.
Montana tends to oscillate between being a reliable Democrat and safe Republican state. Its current Governor, Brian Schweitzer, is a Democrat (who, thanks to his time as an irrigation expert in Saudi Arabia, is a fluent speaker of Arabic), as are Montana’s two US Senators, Max Baucus and John Tester. Denny Rehberg, the Congressman for Montana’s At-large district, is the sole Republican in the state’s Congressional delegation. Montana’s State Senate is controlled by Democrats, whilst Republicans control the House, and the state voted for Bush by a clear margin in both 2000 and 2004. Hillary Clinton might have hoped to capitalise on the state’s progressive history of female suffrage, though there is no evidence that this will help her with the nomination substantially decided. Split ticket voting is apparently the norm in Montana, and with the Democrats strength in both chambers of the US Congress, I think Obama would be unlikely to take Montana in the General Election, unless he selected its Governor as his VP pick. Montana voted for Bill Clinton in 1992, the only time since 1964 that they have chosen to send a Democrat to the White House. Obama will be hoping that, in November, the re-election campaigns of Governor Schweitzer and Senator Baucus (both expected to be successful) will give him some active Democratic support in the Treasure State.
South Dakota is even more solidly Republican in its Presidential voting, having not voted for a Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson, even shunning its own Senator George McGovern in 1972. Whilst the Republicans control both chambers of the State Legislature, South Dakota does have two Democrats in its three-person Congressional delegation, with Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin representing the At-large district joining Senator Tim Johnson, whose ill-health has led to suggestions that he may have to rescind his statement announcing that he would stand for re-election in November. Both have endorsed Barack Obama, and Mrs Herseth Sandlin has enjoyed flattering comparisons to Illinois’ junior Senator with respect to her public speaking, prompting suggestions that she might one day follow in his (or Senator Clinton’s) footsteps in a run for the White House (at 37 years old, she only recently attained the minimum age required by Article II). This gives Obama 7 of the 8 South Dakotan Superdelegates, with only State Party Vice Chair Cheryl Chapman uncommitted. Montana’s Superdelegates have not been as forthcoming with their endorsements: neither the Governor or the two US Senators have yet endorsed a candidate, and only 2 of the Montana’s 8 Superdelegates have declared, incidentally both for Barack Obama.
Should Obama win these states by a clear margin, he will need only 20-or-so Superdelegates to move into his column, before he can claim the nomination. I would expect that many of the 200 undeclared Superdelegates have been waiting until the Wednesday, so as not to prevent the final states and territories from having their say.
If this assumption is correct, I believe we could see Obama reach the 2,117 required by Wednesday afternoon or Thursday morning. If he has not secured the necessary endorsements by Friday evening, I would begin to wonder what the Superdelegates are waiting for – between now and the Convention, the only important milestone is the Credentials Committee meeting (sometime between now and August), so unless they believe there may be a dramatic reversal of the RBC ruling, I can only see them continuing to abstain out of fear of being ‘the Superdelegate who finally killed off Hillary Clinton’s chances’ (as a Democratic junior Congressman who likely needs the women’s vote for re-election – take Ron Klein from Florida’s 22nd district as a perfect example - would you want this label?).
All that said, when polls close in Montana (an hour later than in South Dakota) at 3 am BST on Wednesday, we will finally conclude the longest and most expensive primary season in US political history.
GENERAL NEWS - Hillary Clinton won the Puerto Rico primary by a wider-than-expected margin (68%-32%) giving her 38 pledged delegates to Obama’s 17. Barack Obama gained two Superdelegates today (CT State Chair, Nancy DiNardo, and VA DNC member, Jerome Wiley Segovia), whilst Clinton picked up just the one (LA State Chair, Chris Whittington).
Clinton now needs 201.5 delegates, whereas Obama is only 44 delegates away from the 2,117 now required (thanks to the RBC seating 50% of all delegates from Michigan and Florida on the weekend).
Hat-tip to the ever-excellent DemConWatch
Morus
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that picture seems quite analogical to the leap Hillary must do in order to prevail
Picking up on Caveman’s suggestion of taking some insurance on Hillary just in case the Michelle Obama “whitey” story should stick, probably the most cost effective way of doing do is to LAY the “First Female President - No” option on Betfair, where there’s currently over £400 available at odds of 0.06/1. I can’t see this being around for long in the light of today’s news.
repost
“Still more on the tape. HEALTH WARNING: this transcript is from an ultra-rightwing Republican site. I post here only for info for those of you who have bets on.
If true I think the 50-1 is not a good bet.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2024782/posts
“Posted on Monday, June 02, 2008 2:48:48 PM by wsjreader
This is pure rumor:
Reported verbiage from Michelle Obama’s tape
Michelle Obama, “Once again, the white man keeps us down, what’s up with Whitey, Why’d he attack Iraq, Why’d he let Katrina happen, Why’d he leave millions of children behind. This is the legacy the white man gives us.”
Again the above is an alleged quote from a rumored video featuring Michelle Obama.”
by Test June 2nd, 2008 at 5:31 pm
CNN reporting that most of the remaining seventeen uncommitted Senate SD’s will endorse Obama this week :
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/06/02/sources-most-uncommitted-senators-to-endorse-obama
New PPP Presidential Poll for North Carolina :
McCain 39% .. Clinton 34% .. Barr 6%
McCain 43% .. Obama 40% .. Barr 6%
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/06/tracking-poll-north-carolina-president.html
4 - Barr on 6% in North Carolina?!
Jack W
is BUTT hearing anything from sources about the tape and whether it’s true or not?
6. He’ll poll better than he actually attains. So did Nader in 2000. Of course, North Carolina’s draconian ballot access laws make it unlikely Barr will even be on the ballot.
5/6 - I see from the detail that they polling question names Barr and names him first (in alphabetical order). Seems to me this gives him a spurious level of credibility and makes him the option for “neither of the above” voters who in fact probably won’t turn out. He will peel some votes off McCain but I doubt to that degree in a closely contested state.
7. It is, amusingly, a semi-copy from the left-wing site DailyKos, which posted a mocking version of the rumored video transcript as Michelle Obama referring to Bush (”Why’d he let Katrina happen” interpreted as “Whitey let Katrina happen”).
7 Test. JNN (PISSED) regards the “sources” as not worthy blog rolls even to wipe its ARSE or BUTT !!
8 - Hi Jamie - Mike Smithson is the only person with the access to add links to the blogroll section, and he decides what to include.
If you’d like to be added, I’d suggest e-mailing him at politicalpunter@googlemail.com (as per the ‘Contacting PB.C’ section) - he is taking a holiday from the site for a couple of weeks, but will be back fairly soon.
All the best, Morus
NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger reporting from South Dakota that Bill Clinton acknowledged Monday that today may be his last campaigning for his wife.
“I want to say also, that this may be the last day I’m ever involved in a campaign of this kind,” the former president said at a town hall at the Milbank Visitor Center.
Clinton was talking about how his entire family was campaigning in South Dakota, and that he believed Hillary might surprise people in the primary Tuesday.
Acknowledging the campaign’s likely fate, he went into more detail reflecting on the experience of stumping across the country for her.
“I thought I was out of politics, ’til Hillary decided to run,” he said. “But it has been, one of the greatest honors of my life to go around and campaign for her for president. “
14 - Did he not mean that today is his last day campaigning in a primary election? (I see how it can be read as a more general comment but not sure it should be).
Presumably, if there is a tape, it will follow in the finest tradition of American politics and have all the expletives deleted.
jack - jim geraghty, formerly of the Kerry spot, is a pretty reputable blogger IMO.
Brenda Lawrence of Michigan gives her half vote SD endorsement to Obama.
Forgive me going OT but for those not of a conservative disposition what else is there to do? Anyway I just received this email from a rabid right-wing ex-pat of my acquaintance…….
A driver is stuck in a traffic jam on the motorway. Nothing is moving. Suddenly a man knocks on the window.
The driver rolls down his window and asks, ‘What’s going on?’
‘Terrorists down the road have kidnapped Gordon Brown, Alistair Darling, David Miliband and Jack Straw.
They’re asking for a £10 million ransom.
Otherwise they’re going to douse them with petrol and set them on fire.
We’re going from car to car, taking up a collection.’
The driver asks, ‘How much is everyone giving, on average?’
‘Most people are giving about a gallon.’
Apparently the Clinton advance staff have been informed their duties are over on Tuesday.
Iowa Governor, big Hilary supporter has told her poublicly it’s over.
It is
19 - Pretty generous - a gallon costs around £30 these days, doesn’t it?
Chin up, Roger! 
17 test. This “story” has been doing the blog rounds in one incarnation or another for months. It reminds me of one of my favourite military “mis-speaks”
HQ General - “Send reinforcements we’re going to advance !!”
Frontline Tommy - The Generals said “Send 3/-4d we’re going to a dance !!”
19. If that had been Broon and Balls it would have been really funny..however Jack and Davey M dont inspire the same level of loathing somehow..
16 - Or, given that this is being spread by (ex)CIA, be a concoction of previously unrelated words. For what its worth, this has come from a variety of right wing loon sites that are quite a laugh really, this would be a good chance to shoot apart their credibility but the wonders of modern technology do mean that you can never really prove anything one way or the other. All you can do is say ‘it’s real’ or ‘it’s fake’ and thats’ about as far as you can go.
i’m hopeful that there’s something to it, jack, much more so than I was.
23. Which… thinking further… brings me back to my (and probably CCHQ’s) utter delight that Labour seem to be sticking with Brown.
I guess they are genuinely caught between a rock and a hard place but surely they must realise that the removal of Brown is the lesser of two evils.
Always do what your enemy would like least. I am sure I speak for a majority of conservative supporters who want McSporran to stay exactly where he is.
Montana does have a pioneering status regarding women in politics, but don’t expect that to have any impact in helping Hillary. The very first woman elected to Congress was Jeanette Rankin, Republican of Montana. She was elected to the U.S. House in 1916 (before women were even granted the constitutional right to vote!), voted against U.S. entry into World War I, and was defeated in her 1918 re-election bid. She ran for and won election again 1940, voted against U.S. entry into World War II (the only member of Congress to do so), and was again defeated in her re-election bid in 1942.
Won’t “the tape” work, at least in part as a whispering campaign? Like the muslim thing, or McCain’s “black baby”?
I do think it interesting how no one is getting annoyed about McCain calling his wide Cindy a “c**t”. But unsubstantiated rumours about Michelle Obama are getting plenty of air time.
28- Cindy looked slim and trim the last time I saw her!
26. JH - “Always do what your enemy would like least.”
Errr… is that not what partly got Broon into all this trouble in the first place?
He thought he was being such a smarty-pants spiking the Tories guns (eg. IHT). But the prank has gone rather awry, hasn’t it?
“Doing what your enemy would like least” is for the playground, not for grown up adults. Mind you, we are talking about politicians aren’t we…..
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 45% .. Clinton 47%
McCain 46% .. Obama 46%
Clinton 41% .. Obama 51%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107626/Gallup-Daily-Both-Democrats-About-Even-McCain.aspx
29 -
Given his visibility for a long time and the voraciousness of the liberal blogging community, I doubt that the MSM would be able to give a one sided view for long.
The big concern is the outright lies from the ‘pass this on to your friends’ attempts to smear candidates by email. As emails can be difficult to trace this is being used by political parties and their supporters as a means of avoiding prosecution whilst being able to lie shamefacedly about an opponent. If I was them I’d set up a unit dedicated to tracking these down and launching counter-offensives, hopefully being able to pin them down as originating from a party source or, failing that, to prove that prominent supporters had been passing them on and around. Quite easy to set up a honey trap to do that I would imagine.
Email wars - it’s on the way.
30. Good point Stuart…I hadnt thought of it in that way but surely in this instance and from a Labour perspective, there is little to be gained and potentailly everything to be lost from keeping Brown…he clearly is a massive part of Labour’s problem.
O/T There’a a tiny but wholly uneconomic arbitrage situation developing on Tory GE Seats - buy on Spreadfair at 345.5, sell with Sporting at 346. Still, it might well be worth watching out for any polls this evening to see whether this position develops into a real opportunity.
Great wee article from Alan Cochrane on the Three Line Whip Blog!
The problem with the Brown government is not the Scottish accent
“No, the problem with the Brown government is not the accent but the policy and the purpose. That’s the root of the present difficulty and its genesis lies in Cabinet where there are no longer any big hitters who can argue effectively for the right policies and who can tell the Prime Minister when he’s wrong.”
I particularly liked this little gem.
“But with Charles Clarke, David Blunkett or John Reid all absenting themselves from the battlefield who is there to ring the alarm bells? None seems at all keen to re-enter the fray under Gordon Brown’s leadership.
However, I should point out that the last-named, whose enmity for the Prime Minister knows no bounds but is lost in the mists of Scottish Labour blood-feuds, has still not announced formally that he’ll not be standing at the next general election.
Currently revelling in his chairmanship of Celtic Football Club, could it be that Dr Reid is biding his time over saying farewell to politics just in case something should turn up.”
35 - Jamie - I responded to your previous request at post 13 on this thread.
Kind regards - Morus
35 - It’s spam Morus, can you block the ip address?
28- The difference might be in the implications of a candidate being momentarily exasperated with his wife and a candidate’s wife expressing enduring exasperation with the white race (again, if indeed she made the comments attributed to her).
30. JH
I’m not actually sure that labour have all that much to gain straight away by ditching Brown right at this moment, but the problem for them is the Opportunity Cost.
I think that come election night at the Euros next year 99.9% of Labourites and trades unionists will be kicking themselves if Brown is still PM, as the electorate delivers the entire Labour movement a very thorough (and much deserved) kicking.
I (and probably SNP HQ) share your utter delight that Labour seem to be sticking with Brown.
40 How are things looking for Swiss Tony in his Constituency. Are the SNP hopeful.
*39*
Tom Dashule on meet the press seemed confident but not that confident that obama would win South Dakota.
With regard to the Obama tape. Well that has been doing the rounds for months. If a tape existed surely it would have come out by now.
The problem is because of Wright right wing loons have a pass to believe it if they wish.
28
McCain never did call his wife like that.
35. I’m sure I saw a press article saying he would stand down this time. Has his seat selected ?
39. The SNP would prefer Brown to an English leader of the Labour Party?
43 - And Barack Obama isn’t a muslim. So?
Since Caveman mentioned a few days ago as rank outsiders for the Republican Veep nomination the names of Sarah Palin and Meg “eBay” Whitman, their odds have come in sharply, in the latter case from 100-1 to 25-1.
It would be good to at least have the opportunity to trade one or other, but sadly Betfair has neither candidate on its list - no surprise there then!
43- Of course, I was conceding for the sake of argument that McCain had made the alleged comment. I haven’t seen the tape on that one, either.
The question to be answered about Hillary Clinton is ‘why’? She is clearly determined to sink Obama in favour of McCain.
About the virtual tape of a racist rant by Michele Obama in Tritinity
FWIW, RCP has a video George Stephanopoulos saying “there are rumors that there is more damaging news for Obama regarding his former church, Trinity United Church of Christ in Chicago.”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video_log/2008/06/post_11.html
37 - Is it really? The formulation of the request seems to change each time. Flippin’ robots - too damn clever for their own good.
I can’t block IP addresses, but I’ll drop Double Carpet an e-mail.
36. ChrisD
‘Reid to step down at next poll ‘
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6996322.stm
50 - Rumours about something that someone is claiming about people they have talked to who know people who know people who have seen a video.
Are you serious?
£20 evens that there is no video of Michelle Obama, with Farrakhan saying, categorically, the words ‘whitey’ in a disparaging manner.
The guy who is spreading this is ex-CIA now Clinton maniac (literally), Fox (natch) had a reporter best known as a rabid right winger claiming that he’d heard rumours, etc.
This is the same source and tactics as the muslim rumours and such black ops are only helped by the gullible passing it on, as you did.
Personally, I hope that people responsible for this get shot.
Seriously, it’s the only language that they know.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again (for the last time!) - if Labour actually wanted to win the next GE and that was their only consideration then they would make Reid leader. Of course it won’t happen.
53
You seems to know better than me in that matter; I was just providing the link ’cause I taught about the rumour when I saw it on RCP, yesterday.
I’ll not call your offer!
But keep offering, on other matters, ofr I’ll be very glad to win some of your money, mista, one day!
47 If you e-mail betfair they’ll add them for you.
Clinton 10.0 on betfair for South Dakota.
If you want to go on one poll that may be worth it.
Sshh, don’t tell anyone I sent you, evidence later…..
54. How exactly would Reid pilot Labour to victory? By painting the Tories as soft on terror? What other weapons are in his arsenal?
Replace one dour Scotsman who thinks politics is about being “stronger” than your opponent, with a slightly less dour Scotsman who thinks the same, and I suspect that a large chunk of the electorate wouldn’t notice we had a new PM.
47. I mentioned Palin a while ago!
Punter,
Sorry, I have no inside info on the actual on-the-ground situation in Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath constituency. But let’s put it this way: of course the SNP are hopeful!! The SNP are always hopeful. After over 60 years in the political wilderness, hope has often been the only thing keeping us going. Hope is pretty much our defining, unifying charcteristic as a party. So, yes, we certainly hope to defeat Brown at the next UK GE.
UKpaul,
I haven’t seen what Philippe is referring to but so far today references to this tape have been made on (nutjob rightwing) site FreeRepublic, (very mainstream and respectable rightwing) site National Review, (leftwing Obama site) forgot the name but I linked to it last thread, (mainstream leftwing site MyDD).
And George Stephanopolous, as a former Democrat White house guy, is definitely a serious person.
Now while I can’t say if the tape’s real or not the rumour is gaining traction if Stephanopolous is prepared to mention it on TV. Michelle Obama may have to deny it at some point.
I have some Democrat friends in America, I’ll ask what they are hearing.
44. Yellow Submarine - “Has his seat selected?”
According to the Daily Record, Labour are going to inflict an all-woman shortlist on Airdrie & Shotts CLP, and the Lanarkshire numpty brotherhood are livid!
First, this, if it exists, will not be a made up brilliantly edited piece of work:
Therer are a number of ways to view the revival of this story:
a) This is late last ditch propaganda stuff organised by Clinton supporters to sink Obama. In that regards its too possibly too late. If they really held and wanted to swing this race that they would have released the evidence weeks ago.
b) Its organised GOP propaganda designed to start the seepage effect on Obama with the story, add ons to it and other storoes of similar ilk coming forth over weeks and months.
c) its someone who just hates Obama propaganda
c) Why would the GOP, who reputedly hold this, want to release it now? Makes no sense. They’ve seen the polls and know that either candidate will be hard work. In fact some GOP strategists see plenty of vulnerable spots in Obama anyway. If they had something dynamite like this they’d want him to be candidate and they’d crap on him from a height as yet unseen. Now wouldnt be the time.
d) It’s real.
If it ever was real it could well turn out to be a piece of some hubris and a real hatchet job of political assasination. Who would be to blame if it was real? I’d suggest that it would the candidiate and his wife.
The fact that I posted on another site this morning that Obama only needed 46 more delegates to win, and that by this evening it is down to 44 says it all really.
Montana, South Dakota and 2-4 Supers each day will have it in the bag by the weekend.
And I agree with Mike that there is a good chance there will be a mass announcement after the final Primaries to seal the deal.
Clinton needs what, five delegates for every one Obama gets now? It’s not going to happen.
61 - All referencing the original ‘nutjob’ site, it’s how they hope to affect the race, being so outrageous that others start to repeat the claims; same with the gay sex and cocaine guy. In the end nobody knows where it came from as they are all ‘rumours’ and they hope to avoid prosecution by denying it started with them. It’s the way they work and it’s all too obvious.
I spent about 15 minutes trailing it around blogs to find what the different sources were, they all go back to Johnson. The fact that he said he had controversial, shocking news that he would release at 9am, which turned out to be recycled stuff from his previous posts annoyed even the conspiracy theorists on his site.
Don’t forget, this is a site that has frequent death threats posted against Obama, credible is not exactly the word I’d use.
63. But if it existed, where would the GOP get it from? The church itself would presumably have a copy, and someone else looking to make money would try to sell it to the networks before now.
58 Journalists always seem mightily impressed by Dr Reid, perhaps because he was a good “attack dog” against Humphries and Paxman. I was always surprised that no researcher actually went back to older interviews and pinted out that what Reid said was often the opposite of what the Government later did or the outturn.
I remember during Foot & Mouth Dr Reid summarily dismissing on a Sunday morning the calls from the Tories to deploy the Army as foolish and unnecessary, a week or so later in came the Army. That was the pattern of his career right up to his famous deployment of British troops to Helmand, in which he expected that no shots would be fired.
Not sure that on the hoof defensive strategy would work for a PM, whose words are noted down with more rigour.
Socrates deserves credit for being very early on the Sarah Palin tip, although the first person to mention her (resulting in Shadsy pricing her up at Ladbrokes - her price has fluctuated between 33/1 and 12/1) was Mr Matthew JCG Partridge on December 20th.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/12/20/wholl-be-the-political-forecaster-of-2007/#comment-564964
61. It’s what is called the “echo chamber”. The Muslim rumours have been referred to on MSNBC and CNN. Still not true.
45. Alan J - “The SNP would prefer Brown to an English leader of the Labour Party?”
Alan, GB and his comedy sidekick WA are the biggest single gift I think the SNP have ever received. Ever!!
We do not look gift horses in the mouth.
New ARG Primary Polls for South Dakota and Montana :
South Dakota
Clinton 60% .. Obama 34%
Note - Last SD Poll C-35/O46 Uhhmmmm.
Montana
Clinton 44% .. Obama 48%
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/sddem8-701.html
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/mtdem8-701.html
64 - Assuming she gets a third of the pledged delegates from SD and MT, I reckon she needs about 83% of remaining Super Delegates to win the nomination. If the Credentials Committee sat the remaining 50% from Florida and Michigan, she would still need about 70% of the remaining Super Delegates.
71 - Hmmm…are they using the same system of numbers as the other pollsters?!
64 Now 43.5!
66. How do enemies get anything? Money, deception, pressure and plain good espionage.
Equally though, it could easily go to a network and not the GOP..and that rumour is doing the rounds as well that a network has it.
68. Congrats to the much maligned Matthew.
The latest stunt from the Henley Lib Dems candidate is to complain that the Conservatives are saying he lives in Plymouth.
Apparently a couple of weeks ago he moved into Henley and now wants to be described as local. But is publicising the fact that he looks like a carpet bagger the best way forward?
http://tinyurl.com/4btk8s
A couple of months ago he pulled the same stunt in Plymouth and said he was settling down there.
http://tinyurl.com/5dzfs9
Kearney’s election slogan should be “Wherever I lay my vote is my home”
71 - Jack, you spoilt my hush job!
Anyway, that’s why I said it may be worth Clinton at 10.0 on betfair, but it is one poll and it is ARG.
Still some money left at 9.8 and 9.6
My post at 57 - “Clinton 10.0 on betfair for South Dakota.
If you want to go on one poll that may be worth it.
Sshh, don’t tell anyone I sent you, evidence later…..”
75 - I thought I would post it up, because he gets an awful lot of personal strife from people, when (once you strip away the really whacky predictions, of which there are a few) he is actually above average in spotting value bets from time to time. 33/1 on Palin is the same price that Jan got on McCain - I think there’s a little more luck in betting on a VP, but it’s still a great spot.
75. My point is, if the Republicans have it, then others must have surely had access to it too.
75 Even a cracked watch is right twice a day.
68. It’s a fair cop. Well done Matthew.
59,68 Apologies to both Socrates and Matthew Partridge for not having credited them for first identifying the potential of Sarah Palin for the GOP Veep monination.
71. Thats a massive change and hard to buy right now. Something else would need to back it up. Could they be THAT wrong though, in other words could the poll show some Clinton swing but the extent of it is eccentric.
Clinton is grinding this race to dust..and all power to her elbow for fighting like a mad woman on a Belfast Saturday night.
60 Swiss Tony is the nickname of Des Browne not GB.
Money all gone on Clinton, down to 2.0 now.
Not sure where it came from but somebody just sent me this email on Labour party strategy
‘Labour will today unveil a detailed plan to alienate its last remaining pockets of support.
The central plank of the party’s strategy involves identifying the 10 most popular family cars in Britain and then making them a nightmare to own.
A Labour spokesman said: “We’re going for the double whammy of making them too expensive to drive, but also impossible to sell.
“And if that doesn’t work we’ll just spray paint a big swastika onto the bonnet.”
The party is also drawing up plans to spend £200 million of taxpayers’ money on a vicious PR campaign against the country’s 100 most decorated war veterans.
Meanwhile teams of party researchers will tour marginal constituencies, identifying Labour voters and then kneeing them in the groin or setting fire to their coat.
And later this week, in a carefully stage-managed event at Westminster, at least 10 Cabinet ministers will explain why they intend to vote Conservative.
The spokesman added: “We’ll take stock during the summer and if, at that point, there are any Labour voters left, the prime minister will send them each a personal, hand-written letter calling them a c*nt.”‘
80 - Twice a day is more than often enough at 33/1!!
82 - PfP - their tips were quite a while ago! I just thought I’d do a search to see how ahead of the curve the site was (and still is - she doesn’t get much of a mention elsewhere.
Do people really think Meg Whitman is a serious possibility?
68. How did you check this, out of interest?
87. Absolutely barking, in my opinion.
BTW, Jim Webb’s implied chances of being on the tocket return to 17% today, after reaching 43% yesterday.
79. Depends. I mean who tapes this type of stuff?
Is it the the equivalent of a fat womans equally fat husband who got a new camcorder for christmas and brought it to church or could it be that a a lot of events are taped. If its the latter then yes youd maybe expect more that a few copies would be floating around but again it all depends on why things are taped by an organisation.
Internal use or spreading the word?
77 ukpaul.
… ARG are 23rd/32 in 5.38.com pollster ratings.
Any chance of a UK poll tonight. Been ages
My offer of 1000$ on McCain.President at 3.05 was callled this morning.
86. I think it’s originally from Paul Linford, though I may be wrong.
90- I can’t believe so many people want to flush their money down the toilet on Webb. Names are often surreptitiously floated by campaign operatives for a variety of reasons, and of course ordinary supporters have their favorites, too. But Obama will not pick Webb.
88 - I did a Google advanced search in the Blogs section of their news searching (very temperamental) which returned several of yours, but I remembered that the first time I ever heard the name was when Matthew mentioned it, and I didn’t know who (s)he was and had to look it up. I was visiting my parents for Christmas, so knew roughly the dates, and just scrolled through CTRL-F on the appropriate pages.
Not fool proof, and someone may have mentioned her before that, but that was the first time I heard the name, and I’ve been a regular visitor since September (and I doubt people were speculating on GOP VP much before then)!
As Drudge goes….?
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0608/10744.html
‘Drudge Report keeps campaigns guessing’.
New LGC Presidential Poll :
McCain 40% .. Obama 44%
http://lombardoconsultinggroup.com/wordpress/
91.
Since the church had an archive of videos online, my guess would be a web savy enthusiast in the church.
Up till the point that the only people looking at them would probably have been church members - probably not exactly Clintonistas or Republicans. They got taken down quickly when the word got out - IIRC one of the Republican boards (FreeRepublic?) organised downloading as many as possible.
So it is entirely possible that the only people who have the videos in question are committed Obama fans, and a very small number of die hard Republicans. The reason for holding back for the latter group is fairly obvious.
89 - Good. Not just me then.
94 - Congrats again, Phillipe - I really can’t think who could possibly be thinking that 2/1 on anyone except McGovern or Goldwater is good value when the Dems don’t even have a consensual nominee.
96 - I hope you’re right, because I have been laying him heavily ever since the option was mooted. I think he would be compeltely the wrong choice, and I can’t see him being chosen if he were the right choice. Along with Lieberman for McCain’s VP, this would really ruin my enjoyment of the Conventions.
79. HRC cannot have it, as she would have released it, locked up the nom and saved herself a ton of campaign money.
If the Reps have it, they are obviously incentivised to wait until after Obama’s big speech at the convention to release it.
The guy leading all this, I assumed was a Republican, he’s actually a Hillary Democrat.
fwiw, probably absolutely nothing, there are a couple of comments out there about a big story on Neil Cavuto on Fox 9pm our time. There are also posters saying ABC has the tape. That last one HAS to be rubbish, because a news organisation would get it out right away and not be scooped on it.
86. It’s from the Daily Mash. Paul Linford merely flagged it up while acknowledging its source. It is very funny.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/labour-unveils-plan-to-lose-last-remaining-votes-20080527978/
77/71
The market does’t believe Clinton can win in SD, for worth of 4,500$ has been called at 1.05 or less…
86
Oh Gawd! not another one, probably believes it as well!
Its a spoof dear! it comes from here, Oh! all the other stuffs a spoof as well!!!!!
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/labour-unveils-plan-to-lose-last-remaining-votes-20080527978/
86 Chrisho, very funny.
101- Try to not worry too much, Morus! Nothing is ever certain in politics, but I would consider a Webb choice one of the big shockers of the time I’ve been observing the American political scene.
Tory troll is reporting this.
http://torytroll.blogspot.com/
3.1 £1.08 £2.27
Ref: 5355707756 Bet matched:13:10 02-Jun-08
3.1 £44.92 £94.33
Ref: 5355707756 Bet matched:13:09 02-Jun-08
To PHILLIPE AT 94 ! I also did get matched at 3.05.
To Peter from Putney.That Hillary bubble soon burst, which is/was very sad.I tried a £1000 Lay at 1.08 Obama for the DEM NOM but have partly exited at no cost.
ARG South Dakota - Clinton 60, Obama 34
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/sddem8-701.html
did I beat Jack W?
102 - Not sure about that Test.
There was a rumour started by Ron Rosenbaum late last year that the LA Times was sitting on a story about a major candidate for the Presidency, but wasn’t sure whether to run with it (ethically) - ie it was a candidate they either liked or were scared of, and they were waiting before deciding whether to publish.
You’ve also got the problem that the traditional media are quote close to the political campaigns, and certain journalists wouldn’t hurt their own careers by ruining a political career.
For example, Sen Thomas Eagleton was chosen as McGovern’s running mate in a bit of a rush at the Miami Convention in 1972. It lasted a matter of weeks before his drinking and electric-shock therapy made it into the papers.
This is a great passage from Hunter S Thompson’s “Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail ‘72″ that discusses the problem:
“The most consistant and ultimately damaging failure of political journalism in America has its roots in the clubby/cocktail personal relationships the inevitably develop between politicians and journalists … When professional anatagonists become after-hours drinking buddies, they are not likely to turn each other in … especially not for ‘minor infractions’ of rules that neither side takes seriously, and on the rare occasions when Minor infractions suddenly become Major, there is panic on both ends.
A classic example of this was the disastrous ‘Eagleton Affair’. Half the political journalists in St. Louis and at east a dozen in the Washington press corps knew Eagleton was a serious boozer with a history of mental breakdowns - but none of them had ever written about it, and the few who were known to have mentioned it clammed up 1000 percent when McGovern’s harried staffers began making inquiries on that fateful Thursday afternoon in Miami. Any Washington political reporter who blows a Senator’s chance for the Vice-Presidency might as well be looking for another beat to cover - bacause his name will be instant Mud on Capitol Hill”
Obama two further half SD’s - Lu Battaglieri, his second Michigan half vote SD of the day and also Janee Stein of Florida. Hillary bags Irene Stein of New York.
Summary - Obama +3.5 .. Clinton +2.
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/06/superdelegate-endorsements-for-monday.html
100. In a poor area of South Chicago, never underestimate the number of people simply willing to make a quick buck.
110 test. No !!
Morus, who is Ron Rosenbaum, is he credible?
Put it this way - if there is a videotape of Michelle Obama with Louis Farrakahn using racist language, or even just of her with Farrakahn, who is an incendiary racist himself, and the media sat on it, their credibility would be shot for all time. I cannot begin to imagine the storm were this tape to come out and then it were to be found that the LA Times, or ABC News, had sat on it.
114! curses! foiled again. You pesky kids!
Wasn’t Obama supposed to win South Dakota…? Or did I get that wrong?
111- And of course Matt Drudge himself made a name for himself by scooping the professional journalists with the Lewinski story as they were fretting over how to handle the matter.
117. True.
116 Test. You were only 29 posts slow !!
109
Good!!! I’m almost jealous.
I will back McCain at 3.1 from now on for a couple of days, just to see what’ll happen, once my money on Obama.Montana will be freed.
***
BTW, being both vain and curious, I’m wondering if anybody went with me by betting on the Red Wings to win the NHL Stanley Cup?
Like I wrote here : http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/25/is-miliband-getting-ready-to-run/#comment-678229
I don’t usually bet on sports, but the Red Wings of Detroit will win the Stanley Cup.
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=20448976&ex=1&origin=MRL
1.5 is actually a good price.
They won tonight the first match (have to win 4) — 4 /0 — they dominated all along the other team.
May 25th, 2008 at 6:37 am
Now the RW leads 3-1 in the Series.
One last win, and they got it!
118 Sorry. I think this sounds like a rerun of the hype around Cameron during the Leadership contest. There was strong gossip.. drumroll…and nothing.
324 from last thread - Just gone through my inbox but that doesn’t seem to have arrived. If you resend I’m still happy to confirm the bet.
115.
Perfectly easy to justify - “We were utting together an in-depth story”, “Trying to authenticate”, “Moral concerns”, “JFK wouldn’t have made it to the White House if we’d printed everything” etc…
The whole point of the MSM vs Blog thing is that the bloggers are generally not part of the “thing” and will print stories that are not part of the narrative. The reason that this upsets the MSM so much is only partly being scooped - it is more to do with the world that Gonzo describes. All pals in the smoke filled rooms - a few juicy stories held back is the reason they are in the said rooms…
OT: just watched the iPlayer vid of Timpson arriving in the Commons.
At the very end, I think the Speaker whispers: “Don’t get too comfy”. Very non-partisan. Unless I’m mistaken, of course. But that’s a very rare occurrence:p
115.Test, its an unfounded rumour at the moment. I for one would be sorry to see it become *fact* in political folklore, not because there is any evidence, but rather because if you repeat it enough it must be true. Either it turns up or it doesn’t, but this constant ramping up of the supposed contents on various blogs is simple negative politics at its worst.
124 Got a link.
115 - Ron Rosenbaum was a writer with the Village Voice and a pretty credible journalist, if a bit on the gossipy side.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_Rosenbaum
I don’t know what the scandal was (it might have come out, and we just don’t realise which one was meant), but he said that a source in Washington said that ‘everyone knew, but no-one is saying anything’. At the time, many people thought it might be Hillary Clinton having an affair with Huma Abedin (who is now apparently dating NY Congressman Anthony Weiner (NY-09, and a potential candidate for Mayor of NYC) who subsequently comes off my Christmas card list.
Here’s the original post.
http://pajamasmedia.com/ronrosenbaum/2007/10/29/shocking_inside_dc_scandal_rum/
111
“Hunter S Thompson’s “Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail ‘72″ — I just ordered it on Amazon.
I read his magificient “Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas″ last summer; very very funny!
128 - One of the best books I own, and the chapter on the Democrat Convention (July) is one of the finest insights into that crazy atmosphere as I think has ever been written.
‘The Rum Diaries’ (about his time in Puerto Rico) is also worth a read.
125. Spot on.
Test, I’m not having a go at you, but I’m a bit worried that you “hope” the Michelle Obama rumour is true. If so it would further debase American political life, foster a profound alienation between the black population and the political nation, and encourage the proliferation of mud-raking in political campaigns.
I know you don’t like Obama, but surely you believe that McCain can defeat him in substantive debate? Moreover, if McCain won merely through the implosion of the Obama campaign over an old scandal he wouldn’t have much of a mandate.
126, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7431679.stm
top of the article. It’s only in the last 2-3 seconds.
123- On the JFK reference, it doesn’t surprise me that a journalist would rationalize his decision-making in such a way to himself, but what is really obnoxious is the fact that, at least in the U.S., political journalists almost uniformly swear up and down that their personal political preferences play no role whatsoever in their reporting. What a load of garbage! With historical exceptions like George Washington and Cincinnatus that prove the rule, people just don’t refuse power that’s placed at their disposal, such as the power to make people adopt your opinions by telling them what you want them to hear.
131. Interesting that the Lib Dem benches were almost deserted! They must all be down in Henley.
122 David Roe
Thanks - I just resent to the daveroedj address
130 - Hear, hear.
132. True, but there is a difference between those journalists doing it consciously and semiconsciously.
Why would anybody feel/think that gambling is morally wrong?
“Polling Data
Next, I’m going to read you a list of issues. Regardless of whether or not you think it should be legal, for each one, please tell me whether you personally believe that in general it is morally acceptable or morally wrong.”
…
Gambling : Acceoptable: 63% ; Wrong: 32%
Source: Gallup / USA Today
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,017 American adults, conducted from May 8 to May 11, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/30841/divorce_gambling_acceptable_for_americans/
83 Poll -Populus in the Toimes due this week-maybe tomorrow more likely Wednesday.
rogerh
I thought everyone would be discussing Gordon’s poll rating improvement in the Independent’s ComRes poll
C 44 L 30 LD who cares
it might not be an improvement in ComRes results but it looks better than 23%
136- And I’m sure you’re right that some journalists believe, in all honesty, that they are completely fair in spite of all objective evidence. This is less contemptible, but is still a major problem to the extent that people believe what they are hearing. This Michelle Obama story is just a mircocosm of a much, much larger issue that infects all ranks of the news reporting business.
139.”I thought everyone would be discussing Gordon’s poll rating improvement in the Independent’s ComRes poll”
Maybe its down to him being on holiday last week? Could we see the opposite of the Cameron effect with Brown, he improves when we don’t see him on our screens?
GE Seats - Sporting has the Tories about 3 seats weaker today (although no so Sporting). Are we about to see a poll showing a narrowing of their lead. Is there someone all knowing out there and someone all telling?
142 Oops, I see the ComRes poll is now out!
130. No, I don’t think McCain can win on substantive debate because of the intense media bias towards the Democrats. I dislike Obama’s politics very much, and whilst I respect his quite extraordinary charisma and oratorical ability, it seems to me he’s winning on that alone. Jack W, for example, who has posted before about his real political beliefs, supports Obama - on what policy grounds? His desire for redistributive taxes, American isolationism, what?
I’m a Conservative, and Sen. Obama has one of the most left-wing voting records on Capitol Hill. It’s not personal - of course I oppose him. I admire his breathtaking skill as a politician, but I fear the White House in his hands and even more, the Supreme Court in his hands.
Furthermore, I think he has avoided very legitimate questions about why he attended a race-baiting church for twenty years. He stated he went every week. He was happy to listen to Pfleger and Wright for many years. I find their rhetoric unconscionable, and I don’t think Obama can honestly say their attitudes surprise him now.
I would not want another Bush Republican but McCain is a million miles from that. Pro-immigrant, unlike Obama a genuine uniter (Gang of 14 on judges anyone)? He’s put up the backs of his own party much like Cameron. He fights against torture in the face of his party’s mouth-breathers. He’s a real war hero. He fought Bush in the primaries. McCain is the moderate Conservative, I think he’d do wonderful things for America and I think he’s right on judges. So sure, if Obama’s wife has race-baited in the way his closest pastoral affiliates - and they were close, Sen. Obama is on record as saying so himself - have done, then it ought to be opened to the scrutiny of the voters.
I do not want to see him in the White House. Hillary neither, but although there’s not much between them, I think she would be very marginally the lesser of two evils - just as weak on the economy and on judges but stronger on defence.
141, perhaps Brown will declare a seven week national holiday prior to the GE?:p
Labour’s ratings improved over Christmas too. They were only 3 points behind early this year.
Comres 1% up for Conservatives, 4% up for Labour since last one - Lib Dems losing out?
OOh. a UK poll! Link please anyone?
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/independent/2008/06/today-in-poli-1.html
The commments section to GB’s Times article says it all really. This govt is over and its just a question of when the PLP pull the plug on Brown and go into ‘damage limitation’ mode. 42 days is one the most pathetic attempts to gain political advantage as opposed to good governance for the country.
truly pathetic. goodbye gordon
146. We can’t expect 20 point leads to be maintained forever, frankly. Anything that keeps Brown in situ is good for us at this point.
144
I feel the way you do about McCain. I like him a lot.
Yet I would vote for Obama (were I a US citizen), just for the fun of seeing the changes his presidency will bring into the international sphere.
144 - I think the pro-Dem bias currently is due to the fact that the GOP thrust a total moron* on the world for the last 8 years.
* Personally I blame the Democrats for running two abysmal presidential campaigns in 2000 and 2004 but I think I’m in the minority.
151
Of course, this is easy to say as I will not directly suffer from his socialistic policies!
Thanks Ted. Fascinating little blog that. Labour off their lows, but Tories the highest ComRes has ever polled.
But this caught my eye
“The Labour rebellion against plans to allow police to detain suspected terrorists for 42 days without charge appears to be fading tonight. Home Secretary Jacqui Smith won plaudits after offering more concessions to Labour MPs when she addressed their weekly meeting just now. She also warned them of the grave political conferences of defeating the Government. Smith said: “We have gone a million miles. Meet us on the way. Make no mistake. Defeat will have a political message.” Afterwards, some potential rebels seemed to have been won over. Even some critics predicted that ministers would now win next week’s crucial vote.”
Jacqui Smith showing a bit of leadership there. If she weren’t out on her ear at the next election, the most likely female candidate for Leader of the Opposition IMO.
SOUTH DAKOTA
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=21007317&ex=1&origin=MRL
is now offering 1.2 on Obama…
139. Conservatives still getting 44 points during a spring holiday (when all them rich tories go on holiday). Interesting.
UKpaul and Jack W
but to please you, Geraghty now says he thinks the tape is a hoax
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/
134 - I sent confirmation.
I actually think the Tory majority will be between 50 and 100 so I reckon that’s a fairly interesting bet.
Nice little bounce on ComRes for Brown. Goodie!
35. ChrisD. I suspect you are right and John Reid is keeping his options open. As a Tory I think he is the only Labour politician that could have a close result with David Cameron in 2010 but is this likely given John’s Scottish background?
144 I think you overstimate his opportunity to reshape the Court. Barring we all hope nothing unexpected he will likely have only two picks to replace say Ginsburg and Stevens both Liberals. The Conservative majority will continue. Moreover Bush made the most of things by picking Roberts a man in his fifties as SCJ for effectively three decades or more.
152 Your read out of theYouGov notional effect on Wales was fascinating. Has any poll ever said the Tories would get more seats in Wales than Labour before that?
152- Journalists have, on average, long been far to the left of the American electorate (see the 1985 Los Angeles Times survey that found that self-identified liberals outnumbered conservatives in the newsroom by more than three to one (55% to 17%) compared to only one-fourth of the public (23%) that identified themselves as liberal), but I believe they are becoming less hesitant about showing it, in part because Bush provides an easy target and in part because they feel more justification (we must counteract the evil Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, etc.).
159 - isn’t he standing down at the next election?
Good news for all Patriots…………
BRING IT ON BORIS! TIM RAIT SELECTED AS PATRIOTIC CANDIDATE FOR HENLEY
Boris Johnson the new Mayor of London is also the MP for the affluent and idyllic Oxfordshire Parliamentary constituency of Henley. He promised to give up his seat in the House of Commons once he became Mayor, but seems reluctant to go. The benefits from ‘doing’ two jobs and receiving two salaries are clearly difficult to shake off.
Rumour has it that Johnson does not want to go until the autumn, leaving the residents of Henley without an effective MP for months. This is a disgrace. We call on Johnson to do this decent thing and quit immediately. What possible reason is there for a delay?
The British National Party has already selected an excellent candidate in Tim Rait. Tim contested the neighbouring seat of Maidenhead at the last General Election. Tim and a team of senior officers from South East Region, led by Andy McBride the Regional Organiser (and Tim’s Election Agent) recently met up with National Elections Officer Eddy Butler to go through our plans for this interesting by-election. We will give whoever is chosen to succeed Johnson a run for their money. But first of all ‘Bring it on Boris!’
South East Region activist have already started their campaign. Leafleting began on 31st May with a number of villages around Sonning covered by the excellent A5 glossy full colour election warm up leaflet. A new Henley Patriot is ready and that will also be going out shortly. It is all systems go!
http://www.bnp.org.uk/2008/06/bring-it-on-boris-tim-rait-selected-as-candidate-for-henley-by-election/
The future’s bright - the future’s Patriotic.
JACK W,
If Obama wins SD, will you post ever again an ARG poll?
Interesting that compared to last months indy comres poll as opposed to the IOS/ Comres Poll two weeks ago the figures are:
Con 44 (+4) Lab 30 (+4) LD (??) Other (??)
163. No good news comes from that bunch of racist thugs.
166 Hear hear.
166
It’s good, I feel, they put pressure for Boris to resign and trigger a by-election.
New Thread
Cheers
MORUS
160 - Not that I have ever seen.
Having said that, all of us Welsh scene analysts have been suggesting Labour losing a hell of a lot of ground in Wales based on the local elections. I’ve not looked at some of Labour’s other heartland areas to see how their base vote is being eroded elsewhere but if places like Manchester and Scotland show similar erosion to Wales then they are in serious trouble. I’ve just started looking at Yorkshire and I think they are in serious danger of large swathes of that county turning Blue too, though they seem less likely to lose their old 80s seats there than they do in Wales. Caveat being that I have only worked on this for a day or two rather than the month on Wales.
It looks increasinly likely (unless the polls change dramatically) that they will have to defend this electoral Hindenburg Line which I have mentioned a couple of times before and (unlike the Hindenburg) is a line currently well into their own territory.
The equivalent to Labour battening down the hatches in Swansea would have been a defensive line through Dortmund, Dusseldorf and Stuttgart!
165 - IoS figures were C(43) Lab(26) LD(19) Other(17)
I think you’re thinking of the ComRes April Voting Intention survey from 27th April time, which was C(40) Lab(26) LD(20) Other(18),
This new poll implies that LD plus other equals 26!
164 PM. I’ll post all polls …. even ARG !!!
170 Current polls would give Labour about 20 out of 40 Welsh seats, their worst showing since 1931. Rod Crosby has pointed out that Wales has shown a long-term swing against Labour, and a really big defeat would demonstrate it (even in 1983, Labour managed to win more than half the Welsh seats).
158 David
Thanks got it. Will be interesting - I don’t think a Tory majority is by any means a foregone conclusion, and a majority of 70 seems a stretch to me. If the election was tomorrow perhaps but surely Labour will close the gap.
170 Lol. No I think SW albeit with Gower was close in 79. No on your reading with both Newports in Danger the line would start in Hamburg and then arc round to the Zeelow Heights!
Interesting comments on Welsh Labour above. Being on the outside looking in, it’s hard to know if they’ve grasped the seriousness of the situation. Some seem willing to blame the lot on mid-term UK unpopularity. Some voices I’ve heard are really questioning the party’s approach - Rhodri Morgan’s somewhat Old Labour rhetoric undermining Labour’s appeal to an aspirational urban middle class (the ‘Wales leaving Labour behind’ argument), while the traditional vote is already alienated and either stays at home or scatters to whichever political force can appeal to parochial loyalties and feelings of disenfranchisement.
But the stats are clear. Last year’s elections were worse for Labour in Wales than anywhere else, and they came damn close to a tipping-point where they start to lose whole wadges of seats on the M4 corridor and north-east. This year’s local elections (although losses perhaps seem more dramatic when elections are all-out) confirmed the pattern. Significantly, some of the slightly-gentrifying southern areas of the valleys are now extremely politically volatile - look at the local election results in Caerphilly, Pontypridd, even Torfaen for heaven’s sake.
I still think that the most likely scenario is that come 2010 the thought of a Tory government will galvanise enough residual Labour loyalty to enable them to do OK in Wales (lose 4-6 to the tories plus a couple to others, while maybe taking back Blaenau Gwent), albeit masking the damage that the last few years has done to the party’s base.
If come then, though, the polls are still this bad, we’re in uncharted territory. Welsh voters in the local elections have shown that they’re willing to gravitate towards whoever is best placed to give Labour a kicking.
When you look at today’s USA presidential primary electoral history, a person is reminded of the UK’s disastrous electoral history e.g. a superpower in decline will increasingly turn to ever increasing left –wing that inevitable hasten their hasten their decline into oblivion: No rational person would dispute Obama extremists’ left wing views This being a summary of the UK’s political history for the last hundred years, as opposed to reverting to a battle between the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party the electorate turned to ever disastrous decisions to support the draconian solutions counselled by the Labour Party. Of course the writer has much time and patience for the Liberal Democrat Party. One cannot all that wonderful history after all! Returning to the central point of a superpowers electorates turning to ever more draconian ideas of leaders supporting left wing agendas. I suspect the USA’s feat will be identical to British electoral history for the last 100 years, but as they say history likes repeating itself. The cookie will truly crumble as the runes saw and there going the argument for power of foresight cause by democracies, but then again nothing is perfect?