ICM poll finds big H&H boost for Davis
June 15th, 2008
Mail on Sunday
…and Labour MPs say they will support the Tory’s stand?
An ICM for the Mail on Sunday taken on Friday of adults in Haltemprice and Howden, shows massive support for the area’s MP as he seeks to resign his seat and fight a by election over Gordon’s move to increase to six weeks the length of time suspects can be held without trial.
The main findings are summarised in the panel above. Asked how they would vote in a general election H&H electors said, with comparisons on the last general election - CON 59% (+11): LD 26% (-11): LAB 12% (-1).
Those interviewed split 57% to 32% saying they supported their MPs decision with 69% to just 23% saying they felt Davis’s decision was “principled”. The findings are even more striking because the fieldwork took place on Friday when the media view of Davis’s action was almost universally negative.
The paper also reports that a Labour MP who rebelled on the 42 days, Bob Marshall-Andrews, has pledged his support for the Davis campaign - a move that could land him, again, in serious trouble with his party. The Sunday Times says other Labour MPs could join him.
Under the heading, “Suddenly, Labour is not laughing at David Davis” the Observer’s Gaby Hinsliff writes “..What was a crisis for David Cameron is now becoming a serious headache for Gordon Brown, who must now decide whether to discipline his rebellious MP and turn him into a dangerous martyr, or ignore him and risk others joining in, turning a by-election that Brown dismissed as a farcical stunt into a cross-party uprising. Is British politics seeing the emergence of something genuinely new? Perhaps.”
There’s little doubt that the Davis move has touched a raw nerve right across the political spectrum that cannot be categorised in the normal Right-Left pigeon holes. All this is helped by Davis’s image - with his SAS background he looks like an old fashioned authoritarian Tory but isn’t.
So where is this all going to go? It’s hard to say but perhaps the biggest losers will be the “smarty-pants experts” in the so-called Westminster village - and that will be no bad thing.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
off/topic - I’ve always wanted to be the first poster on a thread - I’m still in California - anything happened politics wise in the last month?How did the Tories do in that byelection at Crewe?
Mike, you deserve a Knighthood for keeping this site so upto date at all hours ( I doubt Clegg will be nominating you for a peerage). I think you are spot on to highlight this poll and article as I think today is the day that the MSM starts catching up with the public mood.
oh and any one who has visited the constituiency will know its far more of a “Mail” place than a “Sun” one. I wonder if Dacre will give full throated support. I heard hague comprehensively hang davis out to dry on PM on Friday. I can’t help but wonder if they will be begging to have there photo taken with davis by the end of this.
“Davis appears to have got off to a *much* worse start than the love-in on the online forums (and my own feedback from constituents) would have suggested.
by Nick Palmer MP June 14th, 2008 at 10:46 pm”
The man is infallible.
I must admit when I first saw the resignation news I thought wow that’s a brilliant idea. Then I came here, read BBC analysis and saw the headlines and thought oh no, this is turning out badly.
Now I can’t make up my mind. Part of me says the public likes to see a principled stand on an issue - Robin Cook certainly benefitted from though in a very different way. In two minds now…
1. Congratlations on your virgin first post Vino. Mine was saying Obama had no chance when he was 50/1!
In answer to your question..nothing at all! Hope you’re having a good time. The UK is no place for Labour supporters right now. I’m off to France……and I may be sometime!
Incidentally this has to be the most fatuous poll ever conducted since Brian Souter’s Scottish poll on section 28. What would anyone expect a poll of Davis’s own constituents to say after all this publicity? The Sunday Newspapers are I suspect much closer to the mark.
He’s asking a stupid question and he might get a stupid answer
7. But, Roger, the Sunday papers are starting to whistle a new tune: that Davis’s move is popular. Check the Observer.
Told you this could happen - he might well turn into a folk-hero.
You of all people should have sensed this coming. You’re an advertising man. You spent your entire career promoting Kit-e-Kat - that’s your life’s achievement, slightly raising the profile of Kit-e-Kat in the northwest. So you can spot a narrative.
And the narrative is perfect.
Rugged son of a single mum, from a council house, gives up guaranteed job as Home Secretary to defend British freedoms. Meanwhile the craven Sheriff of Nottingham, sorry, Gordon Brown, dithers and dawdles, unable to decide whether to fight.
Davis’s enemies can’t even paint him as a terrorist-loving softie. He’s ex SAS.
So. He has the story. He has the issue. He may get the resonance.
The problem for Cameron surely is, that Davis could look a stronger leader type than he is.
Davis’s enemies can’t even paint him as a terrorist-loving softie. He’s ex SAS.
Davis was a member of the SAS territorials, not the regiment proper, he was only licenced to strangle people with piano wire at weekends, Oh! and bank holidays.
Roger at 7 thats a ridiculous and silly thing to say. Whoes constituients would you have them poll ? Bristol East ? the Rhonda ? Its them thats going to vote. Its a perfectly respectable sample size, ICM and taken when the publicity was at its most critical.
Sean T is correct. there is a reason certain myths are deep rooted. people like certain stories and davis is playing into one of the oldest.
7. I’m really quite annoyed now. You won’t find a more tribally anti tory person than me but I nearly cried when I heard his statement. I was all for getting on the next train and burning my little yellow membership card in front of his office.
Of course it only lasted a day but I think the reaction to this has been quite genuine.
I’ve decided that davis is Obama and cameron is Hillary on this.
Other comment this morning includes -
Janet Street-Porter IoS - “David Davis is the new voice of the people”
Henry Porter Observer - “A magnificent gesture that we must support”
“Davis’s enemies can’t even paint him as a terrorist-loving softie. He’s ex SAS.”
The Republicans in America have been successfully painting decorated Democrat war veterans — John Kerry, anyone? — as cowards and traitors for many years now.
re 12. and…
Shami Chakrabarti MoS - “Why David Davis is right to make a stand”
Methinks the media narrative has changed.
Looks Like Davis will be back in his old job in about 3 weeks time…..
Think of farmers markets, growing your own veg, the rebirth of real cider, tescos stocking local milk and cheeses. Its the quest for authenticity.
Go and listen to George Galloways radio show (which is doing phenomennally well) and listen to the Thatcher fans ringing in and saying what an honour it is to speak to a conviction politican.
Then you get why this is resonating
14. Porter-Chakrabati-Street Porter. Seriously Mike are you joking??
17 cont….I bet his wife supports him too!
Roger. I thought you’d frogged off.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-effect-cuts-into-tories-poll-lead-847452.html
David Davis cuts into Tory poll lead
Thanks, PfP, for your reponse.
“Poor Mr Davis unloved and driven by pique”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/alan-watkins/alan-watkins-poor-mr-davis-ndash-unloved-a
22. Sorry my link didn’t work. Alan Watkins in the IOS
Roger, can your analouge mind not see the cultural context of this? the three journos you dispparage are hardly Tories yet they are cheering him on. This can still go tits up if no one serious stands against him but
1. he’s going to have hords of young people from outside the party turning up to his HQ with the coverage to boot
2. he’ll raise the £100k election limit on line in hours when he launches his website next week.
3. he’s going to have luvvies glaore on a tory campaign in a way we haven’t seen since red wedge
24 Red Wedge …. now that brings back memories. Will Billy Bragg be out supporting Davis?
The first reaction of many establishment MPs in the labour party seems to have been one of glee. Is it not instructive that their thoughts appear to have been based upon westminster Chess calculations, that any tory resigning was inevitably about personal ambition causing splits in the high command, and that anything unplanned, a little eccentric and unspun could only damage the tories? There is a huge world beyond the M25, the M60, the M42/M6/M5 and the A720 and they are utterly out of touch with it.
But it goes beyond Labour, this is, above all, revulsion about the whole concept of professional politicians. It is professional politicians, who
have had little experience in the real world who have been so gullible and malliable to signing away our rights won over centuries.
As for the Tory high command, they will inevitably sit and watch and see which way the wind is blowing before showing their hand on this to any great extent. Would anyone but a fool not do so?
oh and when hes been relected after a once in a generation result he’s going to make the most electrifying speech in the commons since Howe and Cook. he won’t lead for the opposition when the lords ping pong back 42 days. But its the fact he’ll be speaking from the back benches that will make it so electrifying.
and your tawdry, bought 9 vote majority is going to turn to dust. and then so will brown.
Aslan will over come the white witch and christmas will come to narnia.
Of course this is all cheap politics and a light year away from a fairy story but what you don’t understand roger is the power of the story he has tapped into.
My donation will be in the post tomorrow.
re 20. Roger - but the Tory lead in the ComRes poll went UP by 4%.
It was only by comparing the finding with the poll before last they they were able to come to any sort of conclusion at all.
This is not party political - it’s about the libertarians against the authoritarians in both main parties.
Those who value freedom against the Magna Carta salesmen - of which Gordon has now become.
19. Cretian. Later today……..
8 SeanT. Perhaps if you had employed the likes of me some years ago the name ‘Sean Thomas’ might have some resonance by now and you wouldn’t have to spend your time on Koh Samui hunting out minors.
“It’s hard to say but perhaps the biggest losers will be the “smarty-pants experts” in the so-called Westminster village - and that will be no bad thing”.
Surely our own smarty-pant expert from Crosby should also be mentioned in despatches?
“… if former Sun editor Kelvin MacKenzie – who is preparing to stand against Davis in the by-election next month – thinks he can win over local people, he should think again. “He said on the radio this morning that he didn’t think David Davis was a good MP for Hull,” said Donoghue [licensee of the Minster View Hotel in Howden]. “Well, this isn’t Hull. He’d better do some geography before he comes up.”"
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/opinion/Not-the-way-to-do.4186874.jp
MIke - you are so right about this. What will Brown have to offer to rebels when it comes back to the commons a second time? How many more billions will have to be ploughed into the grubby mitts of shameless Labour MPs to get a majority a second time?
It wont play well in the media
Mike “Davis move has touched a raw nerve right across the political spectrum that cannot be categorised in the normal Right-Left pigeon holes.”
Try Right-Wrong - and you might get it.
And Horse, my cheque will be in the post tomorrow too. Remember folks, makeout those donations for x pounds and 42 pence….
29. If you don’t think this is political Mike read Watkins article in the IOS. I’m with the libertarians but this is a ludicrous issue on which to make a stand.
If it was against the 28 days I’d be behind the barricades with them. But what’s the difference between 28 and 42? And after Guantanamo which STILL exists this is potty! Why isn’t Davis campaigning for sanctions on the US? Guantanamo is an affront and that really would make sense.
“Dear Supporter Thank you very much for your e-mail in support of David’s campaign. We have had an incredible response from people of all political persuasions who believe that David is right to stand up for what he believes, so please excuse the impersonal nature of this reply. Donations towards the cost of the campaign can be made to this office, cheques payable to H&H CA fighting fund, and sent to:- Haltemprice & Howden Conservatives at 32, Main Street, Willerby, Hull. HU10 6BU. David’s website daviddavisforfreedom .com will be going ‘live’ early next week. Kind Regards Duncan Gilmour, Chairman, Haltemprice & Howden Conservatives”
Iain Macwhirter Sunday Herald - “Quitting may be lunacy … but it’s inspired lunacy>
- “Davis is reawakening a powerful tradition of libertarian individualism that goes back to William Cobbett and beyond. He may be a bit daft, but sometimes it takes a fool to see the emperor’s lack of clothes.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_libertarian
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Cobbett
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Davis_%28British_politician%29
This Davis thing is ‘Passports to Pimlico’ sort of stuff, ‘Magnificent but it ain’t war’
The issue isn’t important, on one hand polls show most people support the 42 days on the other hand someone putting two fingers up to the political establishment is always popular.
Why Davis is doing what he is doing, is more important than what he is doing.
Over the next few days, the press will start to winkle out the, ‘Real Reasons.’
33 “What will Brown have to offer to rebels when it comes back to the commons a second time?”
Kas, still not convinced that Brown will be in the COmmons whenit comes back! Cameron’s first question on Wednesday:
“The Prime Minister is on the record in the media last week as saying that no bribes or inducements were offered to any member of this House to secure their support for the 42 days vote. Would he similalrly confirm to the House that neither he nor any of his whips or other staff held any such talks or reached any such arrangements with any member of this House?”
Repeat question five times, as Brown detonates with an exponential number of megatons at each asking.
If Brown says “No” - then he is at risk of a Ulsterman standing up and saying “Wait a minute there….” - and is out for lying to the House.
If Brown says “Yes” - then he is a grubby political salesman of our ancient and cherished freedoms - and David Davis gets 94% of the vote in H&H.
If Brown refuses to answer - then it will make fantastic telly a la Paxman v Howard! And Brown is open to the charge of dithering with the truth. “The voters must make up their own mind on the inability of the Prime Minister’s inability to answer a simple question with a yes or a no…”
re 35. My sense Roger is that you are a libertarian right up to the point that it might impact on the fortunes of Labour.
You should know that my active involvement with the Lib Dems ended nearly ten years ago over a due process, rule of law issue. The council group of which I was a member sought to deny a senior employee the right to due process. I was told it was a whipped issue. Reluctantly I voted with the group and have had nothing to do with them ever since.
‘Labour’s poverty scandal’, by James Cusick, Westminster Editor, Sunday Herald
“Labour’s self-declared convention in 1997 was to describe poverty as being those households with less than half the average income. But a decade after Labour promised to halve child poverty, the government’s own figures showed 3.8 million children living in poverty. And a year after Brown entered No. 10, despite a re-commitment to the target, the numbers are up and increasing. The head of Barnardo’s calls it “demoralising and shameful”.”
http://www.sundayherald.com/oped/opinion/display.var.2342309.0.labours_poverty_scandal.php
35 - Yes but he isn’t making a stand on how many days you should be arbitrarily thrown into a jail whilst plod decides to look for any evidence to justify it. He is making a stand on a wider freedom agenda. He is standing against the database state, the surveillance society, the emergent technological tyranny. He is saying in a loud clear voice it isn’t just those with something to hide who have something to fear. He is standing up for freedom whilst it is still a flame and not an ember.
Have any serious Tories come out against the outrage that’s Guantanamo? Of course not that’s what Labour are for….but just a minute they’re so far up Bush’s backside they can’t either.
So what do we spend our time doing? Arguing whether the police should have the power to hold people for a month and a half rather than a month. Frankly it’s pathetic. And for a country where our two main parties are hand in glove with the US it’s also hypocritical.
It’s distressing to see posters defining what is and isn’t a genuine “Tory” by the “standards”(?) of Thatcher’s government and hence denigrating any position which seems to go against this utopian ideal as not genuinely Tory. It was the LIBERTARIAN Thatcher government which introduced a variety of MIND CONTROL measures to silence anyone it disagreed with much to the discomfort of more traditional Tories. Blair and Brown merely became her standard bearers carrying on the fight into the present day.
42 “He is standing up for freedom whilst it is still a flame and not an ember.”
That is very good. Mr Davis might want to acquire that one….!
45 - He can use it with my blessing.
40. I can understand that Mike. I’m also at my wits end with Labour. I hardly recognize them anymore. The only thing that keeps me in the slightest interested is a genuine fear of a return to the values of Thatcher. And in the sense that ‘my enemies enemy is my friend’ Labour are still the best chance to keep them out. But it’s getting difficult.
‘Wendy Alexander faces Holyrood ban after watchdog’s guilty verdict’
“A spokesman for Alexander angrily hit out at details of the secret report being leaked, saying: “This is obviously a politically inspired leak and it fits a pattern of the SNP’s smear campaign against Wendy Alexander. It is a disgrace that the report has been leaked before the standards committee has seen it. As far as we are aware, only the clerks and the convener of the standards committee would have seen it.”
It is now up to the [Standards, Procedures and Public Appointments] committee, which is comprised of seven MSPs, to decide whether it accepts the findings and recommends a punishment. Of the seven, three are Nationalists while two are Labour. The Liberal Democrats have one MSP, as do the Conservatives.”
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2342376.0.wendy_alexander_faces_holyrood_ban_after_watchdogs_guilty_verdict.php
So, according to “a spokesman for Alexander” (not Jackie the Hutt then?), all of Wendy Alexander’s troubles are down to an SNP “smear campaign”? Aye, right! Nothing at all to do with Wendy Alexander’s own words and deeds? Dearie, dearie, dearie me. It is a wonderful insight into the tiny, warped, paranoid mind of the cretins that run the Scottish Labour Party. I suppose that all of Dougie Alexander’s problems, and Gordon Brown’s problems, and Alistair Darling’s problems, and Des Browne’s problems are also down to “SNP smear campaigns” too then?
So, perhaps the electors of Haltemprice and Howden are going to have the opportunity of voting for a Scots hero? Lucky them!
“Westminster was awash with rumours last night that Glasgow baggage handler John Smeaton was being urged by Labour to stand as an anti-terror candidate in the forthcoming campaign. The claims were rubbished by Downing Street.”
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/politics/Davis-byelection-bid–is.4186928.jp
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Smeaton_%28baggage_handler%29
49 I believe Smeaton has already denied it.
30. lol.
Whereas, of course, YOU are a legend. When I trawl Soho I often hear the ad agency guys talking about you:
“Roger Wotsname, You Know, Old Bloke With the Beard.”
“The Kit-e-Kat Guy?? Didn’t he retire?”
“I thought he was dead.”
@4:
lolpalmer
I’ve heard several commentators mention a comment by Dominic Grieve’s that the London bomb attacks were understandable. If he did say it this might prove to be a bigger problem for Cameron than Davis going. Could a senior politician really have said something that stupid?
To be fair to you Roger, you are a wheezing old geezer, and it must be hard to grasp new paradigms at your advanced age. So I’ll stop baiting you. For now.
Moreover you are hardly alone in Not Getting It. I think DavisGoesBonkersGate is a classic example of how the blogosphere and the netroots are, these days, often ahead of the curve, compared to MSM (apologies for jargon; it’s 92Fahrenheit here).
The instant reaction on pb.com, on hearing the Davis news, was Wow, golly, what does it mean, he could screw up but he could be a hero, he gets my vote anyway - etc etc. Numerous people said this, on here.
However the MSM (and a few Labourite pb-ers like yourself) instantly came up with an entirely different analysis - how cynical, what’s he doing it for, Tory splits etc.
Now we have the interesting spectacle of the newspapers and major media running to catch up with the story - which is being led by the blogerati.
Morning all, well I have been saying since Thursday that David Davis resignation woul turn into a personal triumph and give a boost to the Tories and I’m sure many of you south of the Wash dismissed my remarks as the rantings of that highland idiot!
Looks as though I was proved right! I also said on Thursday DD may very well end up Deputy PM to David Cameron post General Election
Nick Palmer, this is the 3rd day I have challenged you to resign and fight a by-election in Broxtowe which you consistently claim on here will see you defeat the general swing of the nation because of some secret weapon.
You are the proud architect of the £3000 a day bribe which helped save the totally discredited Gordon Brown so put your job where your mouth is. Resign and lets see you hold your seat!
51. One day Sean you and I can meet in Groucho’s and I’ll put my Cannes Lions on the table and you can put your Pulitzer prizes down and we’ll count….meanwhile the Ad festival starts tomorrow in Cannes so anyone wanting to see a bunch of preening Peacocks knows where to be…..
56 Roger. I’ll join you and seanT and put my ARSE on the table too !!
50.
Thanks coldstone, but what is your source for that?
He is much in demand, apparently. Smeaton has also been asked to become an actor:
“Hero baggage handler John Smeaton has turned down a role in a Bollywood movie about the Glasgow Airport terror attack.”
http://www.sundaymail.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2008/06/15/baggage-handler-hero-john-smeaton-snubs-bollywood-movie-of-airport-attack-78057-20607163/
Politician? Actor? What next?
54. “Bloggerati!!” OK you can bring your “Worst Sex In A Book” award as well
56. Hmm. With all due respect, I don’t think you can compare a career in advertising to a career in writing.
In fact you can barely compare a career in advertising, morally, to a career as a Tescos checkout girl. How did George Orwell describe your industry? -
“Advertising is the rattling of a stick inside a swill bucket.”
That’s why advertising is so highly paid. Because it is meaningless and degrading. But each to his own. I wish you well at Cannes!
Back ON topic, when are Labour gonna decide whether to fight H&H? Does anyone know? Gordon isn’t… dithering… is he?!!
57. That’ll be OK Jack. It is ‘Members’ only!
53 Roger, you seem inacapable of differentiating between when something is “understandable” and when it is “supportable”. It is quite possible to fathom out the reasons for somebody’s actions - indeed, it is essential in our politicians if they are to legislate to prevent it. It does not in any way mean that Grieve is anything other than condemnatory of the actions of terrorists in our midst.
You come across like the Catholic Church, railing against Galileo for pointing out we live in a Sun-centered solar system, just because the actuality was in conflict with their way of viewing the world.
@54:
It’s hardly new though, is it?
Nick Robinson, clueless hack that he is, shows a pattern of behaviour that’s pretty consistently like this:
1) Guido/Smithson/Dale/Recess Monkey/ConHome/etc. break a news story.
2) Nick Robinson announces that his sources tell him it’s not true
3) Story turns out not to be true
4) Robinson analyze story, says that nobody cares/it doesn’t matter/will hurt Cameron/will help Brown
5) Lots of people care/it does matter/it helps Cameron/hurts Brown.
6) Robinson announces that he’d always said that’d happen.
And you know, Robinson’s slow, backward, ham-fisted incompetent idiocy is no more or less pronounced than most other MSM commentators when compared to the bloggists.
re 59. Tell me- does the “worst” here apply to the book or to the sex? With SeanT it could be either.
60 - Yes but to fight this election would take courage, a quality that it seems is easier to write about than to display.
@64:
Well, which would *you* rather do with SeanT?
Labour need to put someone up. At a time when an unelected Prime Minister who ducked an election is pressing ahead with the ratification of a treaty without holding a referendum, Labour are coming dangerously close to looking like they regard any type of election as a stunt.
They would be well-advised to go with their current candidate even if - especially if - he is opposed to a 42 day limit. They should argue that the office of MP is not and never should be about a single issue.
I am completely in two minds about David Davis’s actions. I’m sure he’s doing this for ambition and for internal party reasons but it is very impressive. Andrew Rawnsley’s column in the Observer is particularly good today.
64 Mike, are you suggesting you have, er, “road-tested” SeanT?
64. You decide: here is the infamous “passage”:
(Be warned!)
http://tinyurl.com/yobav6
6 Roger. “The UK is no place for Labour supporters right now. I’m off to France……and I may be sometime!”
Running away - Another example of Labour “Courage”!
Still, you’ll feel at home in the land of the Surrender Monkeys.
Davis could foment a Labour rebellion that fells the 42 day detention Bill, Gordon Brown and the Lisbon Treaty all in one fell swoop. Cameron’s problem will be not David Davis himself, but the fact that Davis might have carried out the action that lances Labour’s boil. But if it was going to happen anyway, it may as well happen now. Brown will be the fall guy. Who will replace him?
Not a New Labour retread like Milliband surely -
From today’s Timesonline -
In Britain, leading Labour figures pronounced the Lisbon treaty dead and urged Brown to halt the slide towards European integration.
Gisela Stuart, the former Labour minister who sat on the panel that drafted the original European constitution, said: “The treaty is dead. If it was right for a ‘period of reflection’ after the Dutch and French voted no, it is appropriate for the UK to pause after the Irish vote.”
67 - Doubtless the office of MP is not about a single issue. However I am with Lord Acton who said “Liberty is not a means to a higher political end. It is itself the highest political end.” So Davis could say that he is standing in defence of the principle that guarentees all others.
56. Will you compare penis sizes as well?
Can I just make it clear, Mike Smithson and I have never had sex, not unless the esteemed founder of pb.com makes a habit of shaking his little bootie in a plaid miniskirt, down at Playskool on soi 4, of a Friday evening.
Yet another dire poll for the Scottish Lib Dems today:
ComRes/Independent on Sunday
Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Sample size: 88
Fieldwork: 11-12 June 2008
1. Lab 34% (-5%)
2. SNP 26% (+8%)
3. Con 19% (+3%)
4. LD 10% (-13%)
Giving, according to the Electoral Calculus Scottish seats calculator:
1. Lab 38 seats (-2 seats)
2= LD 7 seats (-4 seats)
2= SNP 7 seats (+1 seat)
4. Con 6 seats (+5 seats)
5. Speaker 1 seat (n/c)
64. From what I’m hearing from Koa Samui I’d guess both!
4. Nick Palmer is the new Roger…
…and meanwhile the old one is behaving like a verbal muckspreader today, spraying sh*t in all possible directions.
Think Mike may have missed some of the comments on this, not surprisingly as there have been a zillion posts. Mike, like some others here, likes Davis’s theme, and there’s no doubt that Davis has tapped a vein of enthusiasm in a section of the electorate. But…
1. There is no Labour Party rule banning MPs from supporting non-Labour people unless they are opposing Labour candidates. That’s what the last two paragraphs in the Observer piece are about (they’re tucked away at the end for journalistic reason, I assume - the story falls down if it’s made clear). If Labour doesn’t stand (and we won’t), Bob can support Davis against the OMRLP or whoever as much as he likes. If he just had extreme right-wing opposition, I’d support him myself.
2. Post 29 saying “It was only by comparing the finding with the poll before last they they were able to come to any sort of conclusion at all.” isn’t correct - the Indie story is based on the 7% slump in the Tory subsample after the announcement. Mike would be right to query whether small subsamples in the midst of a blaze of media publicity are significant, but they’re not basing it on the dodgy comparison with the poll before last.
3. Mike doesn’t mention the YouGov finding that only a third of voters think that Davis has acted out of principle - and this was taken in the midst of intensive media coverage of Davis’s speech.
30% said they didn’t know - we can debate which way they’ll break, but if nobody interesting stands against him, the view that it’s a pointless stunt is presumably likely to grow.
4. The constituency poll is OK for DD but hardly overwhelming - 85% in 2005 voted either Tory or LibDem, but despite the LD endorsement only 57% agree with his action, and a third of his voters disagree with his basic thesis that we’re a nation of snoopers.
This isn’t to say that Labour has benefited from the move in the short term - as most of us predicted, the Tory lead hasn’t changed significantly regardless which poll you look at. If there is an impact it will be on Cameron’s personal rating and on the tensions that arise when Davis returns and expects to be rewarded by his party.
Sean Is playskool still going? Havent been there for years.
On the subject of byelections H & H seems to be taking focus off Henley.
any news from Henley?
rogerh
75 Stuart. Sample Size 88 !!!!!!!!!!!!!
75/81 figures look pretty dire for SNP also
78. Point 1 - “If he just had extreme right-wing opposition, I’d support him myself.”
Just to clarify, if Kelvin MacKenzie stands and there is no Labour candidate will you campaign for Davis?
75 - have you ever considered aggregating the subsamples from different polls by the same pollster over weeks/months to get a larger subsample?
79. It is indeed.
Bangkok is oddly changeless in a way. The whole city has been transformed in twenty years (I lived here for a few months in 1987), and yet you can still find the same bars, the same hotels, the same cat-houses, with the same mama-sans and the same dodgy neon signs. Within the whirl of Asian dynamism, things persist - more than they do in big western cities, maybe.
I find it quite comforting.
OK enuff blithering on, I have a novel to finish. Kapkap.
re 13. ““Davis’s enemies can’t even paint him as a terrorist-loving softie. He’s ex SAS.”
The Republicans in America have been successfully painting decorated Democrat war veterans — John Kerry, anyone? — as cowards and traitors for many years now.”
The reason they can do that is that no-one doubts the Republican party’s commitment to and respect for the US military. By contrast, the Labour party can’t even be bothered to assign one of their number to the post of Defence Secretary and have scandalously underfunded the forces whilst demanding more of them than any government has since world war 2. Any attempt to mock him as a part time soldier by the Labour party would lead to the response: how many of you have ever put your head above the parapet? The answer to which would be deafening silence.
Besides which, Kerry took part in the winter soldier nonsense which scandalously defamed the US military, so the Repubs have a point.
55: Easterross, this is getting silly - I answered your original suggestion, and I answered your repetition of it by referring to the previous answer. To repeat: no, because (a) I don’t do stunts and (b) my ’secret weapon’ (your words not mine) is simply some local things which give a reasonable chance of doing a bit better than the national swing. If the Tories are 20% ahead nationally, I’ll certainly lose.
And although I wouldn’t post here if I was thin-skinned, I object to your describing my support for compensation for detainees who turn out to be innocent as taking a ‘bribe’ - you can oppose compensation for them if you like, but a bribe means that I’ve taken money myself, which would be a criminal offence.
84 I did this a little while ago , Stuart didn’t like the results very much as it showed the LibDems too high for his liking .
The focus now is on dithering, cowardly Brown. Is he going to bottle the byelection? Is he going to discipline Bob Marshall-Andrews and Ian Gibson and any other Labour MPs who come out in supoort of Davis? Will he show leadership or do a Macavity?
In other news: Murdoch disowns Mackenzie. Over you you Gordo!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1026487/Poll-reveals-huge-public-support-David-Daviss-decision-force-election-Government-terror-laws.html
What about the rest of the country. That is where it matters most especially when there is money involved.
The H&H figures reflect his constituency obviously, his patch and thus potentially represent nothing in the wider environment.
I object to your describing my support for compensation for detainees who turn out to be innocent as taking a ‘bribe’ - you can oppose compensation for them if you like, but a bribe means that I’ve taken money myself, which would be a criminal offence.
Or, Nick, and HERE’S A THOUGHT, you could not lock the innocent up for 42 days without charge in the first place. It was a political bribe for you. The monetary bribe is to the innocent victims of Labour tyranny.
83: Matt, I can’t see myself supporting Mackenzie, but unless it’s a straight fight between Davis and an out-and-out fascist, I don’t plan to campaign in H&H for anyone.
Enough posts from me for a few hours! - real work to do.
89
The only political constant in this world is that given a decision, Brown will make the wrong one.
re Nick 78. I did refer at some length in my post last night on the YouGov poll to whether DD was acting out of principle.
On the general issue both Labour and the Tories have big splits between the authoritarians and the libertarians. I suspect Nick fits into the former.
87. Nick how are you going to explain to your Guardianista constituents that your party is now more authoritarian than the BNP?
82. Mark Senior - “figures look pretty dire for SNP also”
Err… ok Mark. Whatever you say!
SNP +8%
LD -13%
Both equally “dire” according to Mark Senior. Ha ha ha.
Tell me Mark:
1. When did a Scottish voting intention poll last show an increase in support for the Lib Dems, since the UK GE 2005?
2. When did a Scottish voting intention poll last show a decrease in support for the SNP, since the UK GE 2005?
“The constituency poll is OK for DD but hardly overwhelming - 85% in 2005 voted either Tory or LibDem, but despite the LD endorsement only 57% agree with his action,”
Nick Palmer was elected in 2005 with the support of 29% of the electorate, 42% of those bothering to vote. Underwhelming, no?
87 - But Nick this compensation only kicks in on day 29 as far as I am aware. So you can be held for 28 days be uncharged and innocent and get nothing, but if you are held for one more day you start getting compensation. Why? If more than 28 days were as essential then the situation between day 28 and any number of days beyond it up to 42 should be identical? That one concession blew the argument for more than 28 days completely out of the water. It was a squalid and shabby.
91. The law of averages suggests that some of that money will go to wpuld be terrorists who there just wasnt enough evidence to charge, despite best efforts.
96 - Stuart, can you tell me what the point is of extracting a sample size of 88 from a national poll? It is utterly, utterly statistically meaningless.
Note that Basher has been fairly quiet about his military service - doesn’t hide it, doesn’t wave it (no Portillo speaches). That makes it kind of hard to attack.
I expect some idiot will start making stupid attacks based on the fact that he was in the TA SAS. That should insult every TA member serving in Afghanistan and Iraq nicely - including TA SAS…
As to the MSM reaction, I remember an account of a journalist (quite a lefty) having a chat with Oliver North during the Iran-Contra scandal. North was wondering why his many enemies were desperate to prove that he’d had an affair with his (extremely pretty) secretary. The journalist explained that they knew that if they had been in his place, they would have stolen all the money and slept with secretary - and they felt really upset that North hadn’t….
O/T from today’s Guardian -
‘Refusing to take Ireland’s ‘no’ for an answer, politicians in Berlin and Paris prepared for a crucial EU summit in Brussels this week by trying to ringfence the Irish while demanding that the treaty be ratified by the rest of the EU.’
A rerun of 1992, after the Danish ‘no’. The EU again revealed in its true shape as an imperialist, authoritarian project driven by naked power ambitions and with no respect whatever for democracy. No wonder Brown, Palmer et al. admire it so much.
88. Mark Senior - “I did this a little while ago , Stuart didn’t like the results very much as it showed the LibDems too high for his liking .”
Oh dear! Yet another blatant “untruth” from Mark Senior.
I had a whale of a time when Mark Senior last aggregated the Scottish sub-samples from GB-wide polls. He made a complete dick of himself, as always. Even Mark’s analysis showed the Scottish Lib Dems at about two-thirds their level of support at UK GE 2005. And I seem to remember he had the SNP vote up by at least 50%. Why on earth would I not like those results very much?
But Gordon insists no deals were done - not even with Nick Palmer. Who is being economical with the truth?
96 I seem to recall one of these Comres mini subsamples for Scotland had LibDems at 22% not long ago , just as meaningless as the ones you choose to selectively quote .
I’ve enjoyed reading dear old Roger get increasingly rattled throughout this thread but I’m now starting to feel sorry for the poor luv. It sounds like his world is crashing down around his head.
Headline: British Prime Minister bows to German demands in Munich.
ISIRTA: British Prime Minister bows to French and German demands in Brussels.
@130:
Nobody. Though Gordon Brown is lying, obviously.
Brown - ‘I have here in my hands a piece of paper…’
101 - It is getting silly isn’t it that the EU elite seem to adopt a Henry Ford position on public opinion. You can vote anyway you like as long as it is ‘yes’. If you vote ‘no’ we will assume that you really meant to say ‘yes’ but just didn’t understand the question properly. I think the problem with the eurosceptics is that they have a quaint attachment to ‘the rules of the game’ that doesn’t afflict the europhiles. The eurosceptics might want to look at their tactics as it is clear you cannot play by rules that are changed every time the other side gets a result they don’t like.
The one thing DD had better have is a spotless private life, certainly if KM runs.
The press are ruthless in exposing anything that they think reflects badly on anyone in politics, regardless of party.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4138808.ece
Spelman in a little more bother.
104. Mark Senior - “… just as meaningless as the ones you choose to selectively quote.
Au contraire. I do not “selectively quote” any Scottish polls or poll sub-samples. I publish every single titbit of statistical information to do with Scottish politics that I can lay my hands on. (That is also my reply to James at 100 by the way - we have a paucity of political polling north of the border at present - I wonder why……)
To my knowledge I miss very, very few indeed: only if I am on holiday without internet access, or far too busy with work/family to surf the net.
110. Yes there is sometimes a naive belief among eurosceptics of the milder sort that somehow public opinion might naturally ’stop’ the EU project or force ‘reform’. It’s hopelessly wrong. The only thing that will stop it will be aggressive action by member states to reverse the power grabs of the last twenty years - think de Gaulle’s empty chair, Thatcher’s rebate negotiations, multiplied by four or five.
It’s questionable whether the political class in the UK (or any other state) has the stomach for such action, addicted as they are to the huge wads of cash and massive prestige/power gains the the EU affords them.
106, ouch, that’s clever and painful (if you’re an evil one-eyed Scotsman).
Davies annoyed by Davis…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/wales/wales_politics/7453486.stm
104. Mark Senior - “I seem to recall one of these Comres mini subsamples for Scotland had LibDems at 22% not long ago… “
Err…. so your reply to my query then is: NONE.
Yes, that’s right folks: not one single solitary poll shows the Scottish Lib Dems as anything but down, down, down.
David Davis is very impressive on Andrew Marr. Incidentally, Nick Clegg gave a good performance too.
Davis on Marr was excellent. The commentariat have called this totally wrong. Mike is right. The country is fully behind him. The Labour Party will have to put a candidate or look like cowards.
111. I think 6 months of a leadership campiagn dealt with that.
It all seems to be unravelling for the msm. Davis could end up as a hero backed up by a right-left concenus against 1984 government. That won’t harm the Tories and should Cameron handle Davis right on his return, it won’t harm him either.
112 - It isn’t an adequate answer to my question though, Stuart. It may very well be that polls aren’t being commissioned in sufficient quantities for your liking in Scotland. That doesn’t lend statistical validity to a sample size of 88.
‘Secret files reveal bitter Labour infighting over flagship policy on free personal care’
“Apart from general obstructionism, the DSS, headed by Labour MP Alistair Darling, tried to scupper free personal care by withholding £23m in attendance allowance that was paid to Scotland in benefits.
A letter from [First Minister] McLeish to Darling made clear his concerns about the UK government’s stance: “Our opponents will say this is £23m taken from people in Scotland and spent on increasing benefits to people in England. I do not need to spell out for you the comfort that would give to those who oppose the devolution settlement, question the goodwill of the Westminster government or who argue that conflict between Westminster and Edinburgh is inevitably within the current settlement.”"
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2342362.0.secret_files_reveal_bitter_labour_infighting_over_flagship_policy_on_free_personal_care.php
DD is against ‘the snooping state’.
But it must be possible to support CCTV cameras, and be against 42 days and ID cards?
ID cards won’t work, and 42 days is daft. CCTV cameras do work, and make a positive contribution. I feel safer in town centres with them switched on.
Or is ‘I support what works’ as out-of-date as Blairism?
@121:
CCTV cameras do work
[citation needed]
116 Whilst Milliband is a doe-eyed bunny caught in the headlights.
Utter lightweight - and he holds one of the four great offices of state in one of the Security Council permanent members.
Brown’s need to remove all threats has left us without a single statesman in the cabinet.
re 116 & 117. I thought that Nick Clegg was impressive this morning - this has been a real test for him - a Lib Dem leader saying that the party will not contest a by election where they were so close last time.
121
wasnt there a report recently that suggested that the quality of most cctv footage was so bad, that it was useless as evidence?
I said the other day that a wide coalition could form in support of David Davis. Well the bandwagon is now rolling and on board so far are well known faces from all sides of the political spectrum inc Tony Benn, Tony Robinson, Eric Heffer, Ian Gibson, Bob Marshall-Andrews, Shami Chakrabarti, Henry Porter, Janet Street-Porter, etc etc
As Davis really gets into his stride more will join up and those cynical, out-of-touch hacks from the MSM will have to eat humble pie as this campaign strikes a real chord with a disillusioned and increasingly angry electorate.
The big question now is how Brown is going to react to this. He’s well behind the curve at the moment. Will he, characteristically, bottle it and snipe pathetically from the sidelines via his stooges and shills or will he rise to the challenge.
Don’t hold your breath waiting for Gordo.
@125:
In places where it looks as if CCTV has worked, it’s nearly always a case of regression to the mean. Falling for statistical fallacies is perhaps no surprise though. Oh look, Labour are mathematically incompetent on top of everything else.
119. James - “That doesn’t lend statistical validity to a sample size of 88.”
I do not claim that any single Scottish sub-sample of a GB-wide poll is statistically rock-solid, or even all that close to the real situation, BUT I would argue very strongly that taken as a whole, if you look at a lot of the Scottish sub-samples over a long period of time, then a very, very convincing picture begins to emerge:
SNP vote strongly up on UK GE 2005
Conservative vote slightly up on UK GE 2005
Lib-Lab vote strongly down on UK GE 2005
Is anybody out there on pb.com really doubting those crystal clear conclusions? If you are, please provide some good evidence. I would love to see it.
(James, I worked in market research for several years. I am not completely ignorant of the art and science of quantitative research methodoligies and reporting.)
124 Agree Clegg was good. He must however order his peers to stop the Lisbon charade going through the Lords next week. He came across as sensible and honourable on the issue…. he must now walk the walk and not let the nutter Shirley Willaims rule the roost.
My first hunch was that Davies made a bad mistake and if I were Cameron I would have hit the roof however I feel he has had a mixed bag in terms of the press and may have just got away with it with no seious contender in the field I expect a reasonable win win for Mr Davies.With three good By Election wins in a row the Conservatives will now beon a role that may be virtually unstopable!
118 “Davis could end up as a hero backed up by a right-left concenus against 1984 government. That won’t harm the Tories and should Cameron handle Davis right on his return, it won’t harm him either.”
If DD wins this on a wave of popular support, I can’t see any other option than to welcome him back with open arms as (shadow) Home Secretary.
As well as being tactically sensible for DC, it weds that popular support to Cameron’s election campaign and his first term in Office.
Might I toss in a rather appropriate quote I dredged up from Woodrow Wilson.
Liberty never came from government. The history of liberty is a history of resistance. The history of liberty is a history of limitations of governmental power, not the increase of it.
124 - Ironically, if the Lib Dems put in a decent performance in Henley and reduce the Tory majority a bit, might it not increase the pressure on Clegg in that people will think “maybe we missed a great chance with H&H”?
I have to say though, I have only detected support for Clegg’s position talking to activists in Henley yesterday. And Davis probably wouldn’t have stood down had Clegg not promised to give him a clear run so the point is somewhat moot anyway.
121. It’s the scale of cctv that’s the argument I think.
126 - Er, hasn’t Eric Heffer been dead for over 10 years???
(Or do you mean Simon Heffer: it would be fun indeed to think that they might be somehow related?)
136 - 17 years.
135 Oops, yes, Simon not Eric rip, of course! thanks for correcting me
130 Davis, not Davies! See my comment 114…
135/136 - and in a strange irony, when compared to the current NuLab crop (and Roger’s disappointment upthread), Eric Heffer proves the old maxim:
The only good socialist is a dead socialist.
121 I haven’t read the report, but apparently the Insitute of Criminology, Cambridge has concluded that CCTV works well in car parks, but does not lead to crime reduction elsewhere.
http://www.crim.cam.ac.uk/research/cpt/situationalprevention/
128 - I would broadly agree with the conclusion whilst noting that the nature of many of the Lib Dem seats in Scotland (large rural seats on the whole, big personal votes, a lot of tactical movement in a four party system) makes them somewhat more likely to hold them.
Your trouble is that you don’t just quote the figures but then extrapolate them into seat totals in many of your posts. That really is utterly meaningless as you take figures you admit above are unlikely to be close to the real situation and then pass them through a filter which is itself unlikely to be closely reflective of a relatively complex four party system with a small number of pretty diverse seats.
When the East Germans liberated themselves, 10% of the population was employed to spy on the remaining 90%.
How many, including Labour’s immigrants, are employed to spy on the British people?
The artist formerly known as Nige seems to support DD.
Re: Poltics Home?? Are they having a w/e off? The homepage is unchanged since Friday evening!
7 You should know Roger, you are an expert on stupid questions and stupid answers.
How are you Bradford & Bingley shares doing?
You are Roger. You are stupid. You are Legend.
142 - What an absurd question. Is working for the Stasi really equivalent to working as a security guard at Tesco monitoring the CCTV?