How would Hillary react to another woman being chosen?
June 16th, 2008
Would Sebelius on the ticket be the ultimate insult?
It’s not surprising, given the nature of the primary contest, that of the top three in the Democratic VP betting two are women.
Hillary (4/1), of course, is still up there and there continues to be a lot being said on her behalf. Given that this does not need to be announced until the end of August it would be easier by then for Barack to choose his former opponent without suggestions that it was forced upon him.
There are, of course, lots of negatives though this piece by Ed Kilgore in Salon today makes a strong case on the former First Lady’s behalf.
But if not Hillary then what about Kathleen Sebelius (7/1) - the Governor of Kansas who, herself, was tipped as a potential candidate for President after Kerry’s defeat. In January she was chosen by the Party’s congressional leaders to give the to Bush’’s to Republican President George W. Bush’s State of the Union Address and made a key endorsement of Obama week before Super Tuesday.
But it’s now being argued that it if Obama wants a woman on the tickets it would be hard to choose anybody else but Hillary.
In an article at the weekend on Slate Christopher Beam set the scene: “In the fantasy baseball game known as the Veepstakes, Kathleen Sebelius appears to be the complete package. She’s a popular Democratic governor in a red state. She stood up to out-of-state insurers to keep health care premiums down. She delivered the Democratic response to this year’s State of the Union address. And, best of all for Barack Obama, she’s a woman. What better way to win over disaffected Clinton supporters?…Or piss them off…..
Picking Sebelius wouldn’t be an olive branch, a Clinton backer is quoted as saying it would be an insult: “If Senator Obama has a problem with women, putting a woman on a ticket is not going to get him their votes.” Here it gets paradoxical. It would be OK if Obama picked a man—that’s just business as usual. “Jim Webb is not a slap in the face to Hillary,” she says. “Sebelius is.”"
That maybe overstating it and I got a nice bet on Kathleen when she was 10/1.
This will keep us occupied for months.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Let me guess… BADLY.
She was soul-destroyingly dull giving the response to the State of the Union.
This is partially the reason why choosing Sarah Palin for the GOP would be a bad mistake. However, choosing Condi Rice would still be ok because she has her own group of support which is distinct from Hillary supporters.
Can I just say that is so funny! I would just love Obama to pick her over Clinton!
“How would Hillary react to another woman being chosen?”
Lots and lots and lots of swearie words I should imagine…
She answers the Richardson proposition that as neither Clinton or Obama have executive experience a Governor would add value to the ticket (Richardson of course had a different Governor in mind) though she is another Mid West politician.
Would seem a bit of a slap in Clinton’s face.
Ladbrokes current position on this one. We’ve laid about 20 different runners and our worst results, in order, are;
Gore 16/1
Dodd 14/1
Clarke 16/1
Clinton 4/1
Webb 7/2
Sebelius 5/1.
Karl Rove tipped up Joe Biden (14/1) on Fox News yesterday. I’ve backed Biden and Sam Nunn.
I think Sebelius *could* work as Obama’s VP - she’d be better than Clinton in many ways, as she doesn’t come with all Clinton’s baggage (or power base) and might help appeal to women voters (and Kansans). But it’s certainly true that Clinton would hate that choice, as it would seem like a massive insult to her - and it’s also true that Sebelius doesn’t bring the national name recognition that Clinton does.
For various reasons, as the Slate article mentions, Obama might actually be better off picking a man for VP, one with enough experience to deserve the position on their own merit. That would look less like a snub to Clinton supporters (though it still would be) - and moreover, would help appeal to the so-called ‘white working class’ that Obama supposedly has problems with. For all the talk of ‘will women voters support Obama?’, I think that’s a red herring - the groups he really needs to focus on winning are white and Hispanic men.
(And by the way - the first link in this post, to Salon, doesn’t work. Here’s the actual link: http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/06/16/hillary_yes/)
So now some Slate pundit wants to turn the presidential race into a soap opera?
For months feminists, Clintonistas and many thoughtful commentators have been decrying the misogynistic bent of politicos, journos and (mostly male) citizenry when it comes to Hillary Clinton’s candidacy.
Question: isn’t saying (in effect) that Sen. Clinton is the only qualified woman canidate for the presidential ticket demeaning to over half of the American poplation . . . minus one?
#286 Previous thread - thanks for the heads-up Nick.
Posted this on the last thread but thought it was worth repeating.
From the Devil’s Kitchen a nice quote on how the Romanians see the Irish No Vote
Referenda and Democracy
The EU has now accumulated significant (bad) experiences with
referenda. It was very delicately yet effectively communicated
by the Romanian social-democrat MEPs: “The referendum in
Ireland has demonstrated that direct democracy (by way of referendum) cannot ensure the progress of the European process.
The security, liberty and prosperity of hundreds of millions of
European citizens ask for complex leadership actions, which cannot be appreciated by heterogeneous populations, from the point of view of the information level and the education one.
European integration is a process that must be conducted politically
by the elected representatives of the European citizens.”
11 - Breathtaking arrogance. Entirely predictable.
Why would Obama do something designed to upset Mrs Clinton and her supporters when he’s having difficulties already holding onto them?
11. The European process is fundamentally anti-democratic. Always has been, always will be. It is about removing power from national electorates and giving it to an unaccountable supernational elite.
Up until now, the EU elite has banked on the voters not noticing this. Now, they are being quite brazen about it, and are simply hoping the voters don’t care.
11 as posted earlier - some of the European politicians seem actually to just want to recreate COMECON
Hillary would just burst into flames if another woman were chosen - the resulting fire damage might well include Bills remaining hair
Bill’s Bouffant- lacking Bouffe
7 From my humble perspective, think Obama would be ill-advised to pick one of the ususal Beltway suspects as his VP pick. All these guys carry their political baggage in steamer trunks. Plus the optics are terrible for the candidate of change.
So if I’m right, that will scratch the likes of Biden & Dodd from Obama’s dance card.
Which essentially leaves three options:
1. Hillary - ain’t gonna happen
2. Defense and/or Foreign Policy Heavy: Wes Clarke & Sam Nunn are in this category. Know many who think this route is a must for Obama due to his lack in this area combined with a dangerous world and W’s very itchy trigger finger. But I think that the actually names being touted are pretty weak politically; for example, Clarke is a political lightweight while Nunn is a blast from the now distant past.
3. Non-Beltway Governor - this would introduce some executive cred to the ticket while underlining its anti-Beltway message. In addition to Sebelius, Gov. Strickland of Ohio would appear to be a strong candidate.
4. Combo Play - two biggest examples are Richardson & Webb. But having a two-minority ticket might be too much of a good thing. So Webb looks like a real possible to me.
5. Gore - has some natural appeal, but the drawbacks outweigh it: Gore would be another return to the future; and why would he want to reprise his role as 2nd Fiddle to the Leader of the Free World?
YouGov/Sunday Times; Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Sample size: 134; Fieldwork: 12-13 June 2008
Lab 30% (-9%); SNP 28% (+10%); Con 23% (+7%); LD 16% (-7%)
Giving, according to the Electoral Calculus Scottish seats calculator:
Lab 38 seats (-2 seats); LD 10 seats (-1 seat); SNP 9 seats (+3 seats); Con 1 seat (n/c); Speaker 1 seat (n/c)
http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/STresults080613.pdf
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll_scot.html
Quite why the Sunday Times and YouGov were asking Scottish and Welsh repondents questions about the English NHS is a bit of a mystery:
- “In recent cases the government has ruled that people who pay for additional cancer drugs should lose their right to free NHS cancer treatment.”
Err… no it hasn’t, because the Scottish Government is responsible for the Scottish NHS, and has made no such ruling, AFAIAA. (Snap with Wales and the Welsh Assembly Government.)
- “The government wants to set up larger ‘one stop’ polyclinics… “
Err… no it hasn’t, because the Scottish Government is responsible for the Scottish NHS, and wants no such thing, AFAIAA. (Snap with Wales and the Welsh Assembly Government.)
Apart from being highly confusing to the Scottish and Welsh respondents, does this kind of cock-up not distort the overall findings and risk bringing the polling industry into disrepute?
Really don’t think Hillary is as shallow as is being purported.
From her perspective, don’t think it’s going to matter what gender or species Obama’s VP is going to be . . . if it’s she’s not it.
So if Sen. Clinton’s personal feelings are the litmus test, guess the Dems will just have to leave the VP spot blank!
17 Stuart. Yippee !!!!!!!!!!!! Sample size 134 !!!!!!!!!!!
On Thread. First rule - Do No Harm.
Today’s latest Rasmussen on Kansas - McCain +10 - makes Sebelius an interesting choice in a red state.
As for intra-Democratic in-fighting, etc.
NOTE that this is a long & proud tradition of my party. Especially in good Democratic years. Thus its a sign of strength, not weakness.
What is really important is what happens immediately before, during and after the national Democratic convention in Denver.
IF the years 1932 and 1992 are a guide, the convention will be a tremendous success for the Democrats. (This is what the NYT’s GOP VIP pundit David Brooks has been saying for weeks.) True, the convention itself will be a staged TV spectacular. But the positive feelings & emotions engendered will be very real.
So stay tuned to see if the scenario above plays out. And in the meantime, keep taking huge grains of salt whenever the topic of discussion is Democratic angst.
OT Posted in the last thread, David Davis writes for ConHome;
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2008/06/david-davis-bri.html
Go That Man!
18. This has nothing to do with Clinton and everything to do with her little cult who have decided to throw temper tantrums. The reality is that nothing Obama actually does will make them vote or not vote for him. They either will, or they won’t. But they’re also, despite getting a lot of press, an extremely small minority essentially irrelevant to the election. For that reason, this kind of childish protestations and the various reports about them are nothing but nonsense noise regarding VP choices.
I think Sebelius is the most likely to be tapped, but I am uncomfortable in providing betting advice where the market is so wide open.
I do think that “security credentials” candidates are highly overvalued; Obama has made it clear in the past that he believes himself to have the security credentials and lack the economic credentials. Given McCain’s weakness on the latter front, and it being forefront in the minds of most Americans (and generally those who care more about Iraq are the most diehard opponents of the war), I cannot see Obama throwing away his VP choice on a military or other foreign affairs candidate. He has much greater opportunity to assault McCain on domestic issues.
@17:
Mr Dickson, I can’t help noticing that you seem recently to developed a habit of drawing meaningless conclusions from polls whose sample sizes are so small as to be stastically meaningless.
Don’t make Mike have to send a claque of PBC’s more militant psephologists up there to dispense some harsh but fair summary justice.
17. Lib Dems up 6% in a week! (They were on 10% in Stuart’s previous micro-sample).
Stuart, you really ought to base your +/- figures on the previous poll from the same source.
You would make a terrible greengrocer, not being to able to tell oranges from apples.
Has Strickland got some baggage? On paper he’d bring Ohio into play, Sebelius would not bring Kansas or any other mid west states (possibly Missouri but maybe not).
Webb seems like a fiery cannon and was Reagan’s Secretary of Navy, how would that play to the base - and not certain to bring in Virginia.
Nunn - he was a big honcho in the Senate, in the 1980s…
Richardson, Gore, Hillary-no for a variety of reasons I think.
Wes Clarke? Forget “trigger happy” GWB, he wanted to start shooting up Russian paratroopers in Kosovo in 1999. Maybe the Republicans can air a Goldwater style “why not win” video featuring Wes Clarke.
So all have “negatives”.
btw-do US polls factor in the Bradley effect? If Obama is up 4 on McCain only 2% have to be “shy” and don’t want to be seen as being racist by saying McCain for it to be a deadheat. My guess is there are more than 2%.
17-Irrespective of the sample size, I think Tories on 23% in Scotland would give them more than 1 seat.
You just gotta love the biased BBC. A couple of days ago the BBC Trust was busy reporting that the BBC was too Anglocentric, and yet today, on the Today show on Radio 4, who do they ask to comment on the Scottish Government’s plans to increase the age for buying drink from off-licences in Scotland from 18 to 21? Peter Fahy, the Chief Constable of Cheshire Constabulary, and Gavin Partington, a London PR stoodge of the drinks industry.
It truly is beyond parody.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7457089.stm
24- Maybe we should start polling! Come on, lets all ring up 1000 Scots and ask them who they are going to vote for.
I imagine like this:
http://www.i-mockery.com/halloween/greatest/pics/scanners4.gif
17, 19, 24 - what is the margin of error for 134 subset?
My guess is that MOE is maybe plus/minus 8% or thereabouts?
In other words, the sample is just big enogh to tell us something, but too small to bet the farm. However, the trend (not given in orginal post) should be more useful/reliable.
Is this logic basically correct?
29. That sounds like cruel and unusual punishment
27. Peter2′ - “I think Tories on 23% in Scotland would give them more than 1 seat.”
Agreed.
I said a while back now that I thought the Scottish Tories would be pushing up towards the 24-25% mark soon (I always mentally add about 3% to any Scottish Tory poll finding). Looks like we are beginning to see it. Certain Labour MPs (Jim Murphy springs to mind) ought to start dusting off their CVs.
17 It’s an error on electoral calculus. That sort of swing would see the Conservatives pick up Dumfries & Galloway, Edinburgh North, South, and South West, Stirling, Argyll, Berwickshire and Roxburgh, and East Renfrewshire. But the sample size is too small to mean anything.
26. Strickland has ruled himself out with a fairly definitive rejection. My feeling is that if Obama is comfortably ahead by August he will take absolutely no chances and go with someone white, male and dull. e.g. Nunn
McCain is much more likely to be in a position where he’s got to do something to shake things up, which is why I still like Bobby Jindal’s chances.
31. Sea Shanty Irish - “Is this logic basically correct?”
Yes. It is the long-term trend that really matters. And the trend is crystal clear.
@31:
For Mr Dickson’s poll with sample size of 134, the 95% confidence intervals would be:
SNP: 20.4%-35.7%
Con: 15.9%-30.2%
Which is to say, next to bloody useless.
I hope she is the veep. I was the only one who put her down on the PBC prediction for vice president at the end of last year (I think). I know I’m not going to get the glory of winning the whole shebang, maybe that’ll be my one consolation.
Won’t be able to make the do on Thursday unfortunately so for all of you who are going to the National Liberal Club have a great time.
17.I read with interest the news in the press and elsewhere that we have free prescr1pt1ons in Scotland, not true. I jokingly pointed out to our local chemist that if its in the papers, it must be true….
Does nobody feel like responding to my query at 17?
- “… does this kind of cock-up not distort the overall findings and risk bringing the polling industry into disrepute?”
31 No. (a) small sample size, with a big margin of error and (b) quite likely unrepresentative of Scotland’s demographics. Pollsters are only interested in ensuring that their 1-2,000 voters are representative of the UK as a whole, not any particular part of it.
It’s a pity there is so little proper Scottish polling.
@40:
It’s not a cock-up to ask people what they think. It *might* be a cock-up to read more into the data than they support, but then you’d appear to know all about that.
O/T - Back to the running joke that is the EU.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7457218.stm
When will these people learn?
A new Gallup poll indicates that by 52/41 US voters expect Obama to win in November :
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107995/Americans-Predict-Obama-Will-Next-US-President.aspx
43. Again, it looks more and more like the Soviet Union,…
40 Would be easier to complain if Scotland (like Northern Ireland) used another name for it’s health service - something like Scots Health or perhaps an ethnic/nationalist brand “Slainte”.
Trevor Kavenagh’s article in the Sun appeared to indicate a change of heart at Murdoch Towers?
Murdoch steps down from the fight
“Murdoch has no great love for David Cameron or the Cameroon Tories. But he’s concluded that they are going to form the next government, and Murdoch always likes to be on the side of the winners. So why pick an unnecessary fight with them? Why fall out with the likely winners of the next general election?”
A 19-year-old man has been arrested in Bristol under the Terrorism Act, police have said
What is the liklihood that they will release him reluctantly on the day before the H&M election without charge saying they would have preferred to hold him longer - for at least 42 days
35 Shadsy, when it comes to Pres or VP, the only “ruling out” by a potential nominee that’s worth more than a warm pitcher of piss is what Gen. Sherman said: “If nominated I will not run, if elected I will not serve.”
Don’t know context or exact verbiage of Strickland’s statement. My guess is that it may have as much to do with internal Buckeye/Statehouse politics as the national picture or the Gov’s own predilictions. But you have a point, in that a truly reluctant candidate is less likely to get the nod.
Dull (and certainly White) makes sense for Obama. But dull and beltway may not compute.
Gov. Jindal would be a very interesting pick for McCain. But I wonder what they’d say & think in Louisiana? As grad of LSU and Democrat who would have voted for Jindal last fall, because LA surely needs a good governor right now, would regard him jumping to the GOP ticket as a betrayal of the Pelican State. However, down on the bayou the feeling might be more of pride than sorrow.
Nationally Bobby Jindal would be a sensation. A positive one UNLESS he stumbled out of the gate, as did poor Dan Quayle. But think that much less likely in Jindal’s case.
45. Sorry the EU are easing restrictions & making them more user friendly & that make’s it more like the USSR? Have I misunderstood that the Soviet Union was a command centralising undemocratic economy & that it wss in fact a neo-liberal capitalist state?
46. But then people would complain about the money wasted on ‘re-branding’.
@47:
Piss. I was really looking forward to helping Davis wipe the floor with that odious bovine-faced troll.
David Cameron is on about green issues again
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article4149030.ece
“Mr Cameron said he wanted to see energy bills reveal the average consumption of similar households so that neighbourly peer pressure would ensure people tried to consume more efficiently. Each house would also have smart metres allowing homeowners to see how much energy they were consuming minute-by-minute.”
What’s it got to do with my neighbours how much I spend on energy? Sounds like Big Brother. It’ll be meters on dustbins next. Has DD heard about this?
499 SSI. Strickland used the Sherman statement exactly. Mind you the trainer of this year’s Derby winner (Epsom not Kentucky) said pretty much the same thing about his horse three weeks before the race and then changed his mind, so we haven’t taken Strickland out of the betting yet.
Ed Rendell would be a particularly pleasing outcome for West Wing fans.
13. Actually, recent polling evidence suggests that women are already moving heavily towards Obama. When it comes to the two candidates positions on abortion and healthcare, Obama has a clear advantage over McCain.
16. Strickland has definitively ruled himself out.
Iain Dale is angry at the attacks on David Davis’s gay rights voting record.
David Davis and Gay Rights
53: Read the article before posting next time.
26. The roots love Jim Webb. Democrats generally feel that they have a deficit to the GOP when it comes to manliness and military credentials (part of the reason they picked Kerry).
55: You are making a false assumption that her supporters are all women.
53.”What’s it got to do with my neighbours how much I spend on energy? Sounds like Big Brother. It’ll be meters on dustbins next. Has DD heard about this?”
TOC, that misleading headline has already been spotted and dissected at ConHom.
Realistic environmentalism
”
Yep, just checked with Greg Barker’s office. The Times have got it wrong. Cameron’s reply to the question after the speech was more accurate than the bit in the speech.
Basically, people will be given estimates of what the typical energy consumption is for people like them based on their area, the size of their house and the size of their family.
Thanks Chris - I noted Alan Duncan was there as well later on but I’ll tweak the bit about Cameron’s tribute so as not to confuse.
Posted by: Deputy Editor | June 16, 2008 at 16:34″
If Cameron is moving towards the compulsory installation of meters on dustbins and encouraging neighbours to snoop on one another, then thank goodness for David Davis.
The Tories really are stupid, aren’t they? They simply cannot get their act together.
61 well you are about to have 20 years to find out.
61, perhaps you’d be best getting an idea of what’s been said and then making up your mind, instead of making up your mind and then deciding what you want to have been said.
The idea Cameron has is to send round an average bill for a comparable household so that families can see if they’re spending more or less than average. That’s not encouraging neighbours to snoop on one another now, is it?
And yes, the Tories really are silly. Fancy Davis galvanising everyone from Tim Collins to Shami Chakrabarti, picking up a few Labour MPs along the way, and Cameron consistently having double-digit leads.
Muppets.
61. Bless!
56 ChrisD. Not too sure that Mrs Dale is doing DD much good. It’s a matter of record that DD’s gaydar rating is poor. It just appears as if DD is ok with his close gay friends enjoying civil rights but not the rest of the gay diaspora.
Perchance some might say DD isn’t quite the noble man of principle as painted recently …. I couldn’t possibly comment !!
53 - Cameron is “on about green issues again” for precisely the same reason as McCain is. They want to win the next election. And figures that when that rolls around Tory/GOP “old codgers” will go along to get along.
BTW do you live on Planet Earth? In which case, what I do affects you, and visa versa.
42.
I have no objection whatsoever to polling firms or clients asking respondents for their opinions. However, I strongly object to polling firms and clients blatantly mis-informing respondents, eg. saying to people who reside in Scotland or Wales: “The government wants to set up larger ‘one stop’ polyclinics… “.
Because that is simply a big, fat, dirty “untruth”. YouGov should think very, very hard about that kind of behaviour.
Re 60
Thanks for the clarification and the link Chris D. Much more helpful. Sounds more sensible now. I imagine that the meters could be incorporated into new housing in much the same way as water meters. What is the Times coming to?
Gordon Brown announces more troops to Afghanistan….. by …… 230…. oh that will make a difference. What a pathetic, shabby sop to a discredited President.
And Davis resignation is a stunt! What a total idiot Brown is.
From Iain Dale: “David [Davis]also played a part in the proceedings*, and I have been told by several people that he was seen to ‘well up’ a bit during the ceremony.”
* a civil partnership ceremony.
59. The other main constituencies are Hispanics (who are also moving over), and low income urban whites. (a) I don’t think the latter were either positively voting for Clinton (more voting for a white alternative to Obama) and (b) I don’t think many such people will be that concerned about Clinton’s being upstaged by another woman. Regardless, there are plenty of candidates that can win over that group better than Clinton.
I don’t think anyone’s pointed out John Edwards less then complete denial that he was still interested in the veep job over the weekend. He just said that he wasn’t “seeking” it.
“”Asked whether he’d rule out the possibility, Edwards said: “Well, I’d take anything he asked me to think about seriously, but obviously this is something I’ve done and it’s not a job that I’m seeking.”"
I think there’s value in Edwards.
35 - Jindal is dead in the water after the revelations of him being a student exorcist. There’s weird and there’s electorally damaging weird and that’s the latter.
49 - Strickland copied the Sherman formulation practically word for word.
Latest Gallup Tracker :
McCain 42% .. Obama 46%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108007/Gallup-Daily-Obama-46-McCain-42.aspx
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/2140055/David-Davis-delays-standing-down-to-challenge-Gordon-Brown-at-PMQs.html
“Mr Davis could find himself in the embarrassing position of fighting minor candidates such as Miss Great Britain and the Monster Raving Loony Party.
“He also appears increasingly isolated from the Conservative leadership, with William Hague, the shadow foreign secretary, and Liam Fox, the shadow defence secretary, both publicly stating their opposition to his move.”
72. I think Edwards and Warner are both names that aren’t mentioned enough.
74. Interesting isn’t it how the political club join ranks when a mavrick takes them on!
Maybe Boris Johnson did the right thing in seeking a job where he is his own man. The problem with many political jobs these days is your lack of scope to present an independent point of view on so many issues. People say there would be chaos without whipping but would there? Of course you need political parties and some *general* similarities to get things done but surely common sense prevails if you are there to legislate?
75 - Warner went the Sherman route a few days ago.
Wolfgang Munchau of the FT (see previous thread!) may be a smelly europhile elitist, but he wasn’t wrong about the EU’s plan B.
It is what he said: simply to make Ireland vote again. And soon. And not even on a changed Treaty, just the same document with an added “declaration”.
http://tinyurl.com/565d4j
They parody themselves, these Europeans. They don’t even pretend to care about democracy any more.
I think Britain may just have to quit the whole damn thing.
74 Ah. That would be from the former Mirror journalist.
78 - Currently 5/2 with Paddy Power though… No reason not to make money from their idiocy
72. That exorcism thing is old news, no? And anyway, is it really any weirder than a lot of other mainstream religious behaviour or belief out there? Romney thinks that the garden of Eden was in Missouri.
65.”Perchance some might say DD isn’t quite the noble man of principle as painted recently”
Well JackW, he is certainly showing some strong principles on civil liberties. It makes a nice change from all the bad headlines about our politicians lack of them. No chance of giving him the benefit of the doubt on this? He has given up his shadow cabinet/possible ministerial career for the foreseeable future, and put his reputation on the line, that takes courage. Now if only Gordon could find some cojones and a principled cause his polls rating might stop tanking, come to think of it, the rest of the cabinet lack them too and that makes the government even weaker.
75 I can’t really see it being Sebelius or Edwards. Ok I can see it being Edwards, but I don’t think he delivers a State, or any significant constituency, and think he would be a much better bet if he hadn’t had teh job last time. Nunn might bring Georgia into play and help in Virginia (which would change the narrative) but he is a bit old. Rendell has quite a few negatives. Casey seems to offer quite a lot.
I like the cowboy Democrat from Montana, but I don’t think the 50 States strategy stretches that far.
78-If only!!
81 - It’s been getting quite a bit of play in the last few weeks, with the ‘do no harm’ principle I don’t think Jindal fits that. Same with Romney who may have played it well but, as per polling, is still electoral poison. I suspect that the Mormon beliefs are a part of that.
Although just as wacky, Huckabee at least fluffs up the GOP diehards and he may be a decent bet.
74 After the Telegraph in person of Rosa Prince definitively announcing David Davis would be stepping down today, then he didn’t, Andrew Porter then tried to follow up Ben Brogans story that he’ll wait until Wednesday. Think Benny boy is probably a better source than Mr Porter or Ms Prince.
Late, great Bill Deedes left a letter to his biographer to be opened after his death in which he tore into the Barclay twins for their policies of firing the journalists that made the Telegraph in preference to hiring from the Red Tops, and for their opposition to Cameron. seems Mr Deedes knew what he was talking about.
77. Do you have a link?
84. If they do force this Treaty through, despite the Irish No, the eurosceptic anger within the Tory party will be utterly combustible.
Cameron will HAVE to deratify, whatever he personally wants. Could be very very messy. He’d be on good legal grounds to revoke the Treaty - he could say the EU broke their own rules (unanimity), so the Treaty has no force - but it would set him up for long horrible battles with Brussels. But I think he’d have no choice, politically, but to go to war - his party would demand justice.
Maybe this is why Brown is forcing through ratification. He knows he’s gonna lose the election, so he’s handing on a poisoned chalice…
86 It’s just a flesh wound, isn’t it?
81. Part of the reason Romney’s presidential campaign failed!
87 - http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/14/AR2008061401831.html?hpid=topnews
“Mark Warner Rejects VP Talk, Wants Senate Seat”
88, is the Lords’ vote today or tomorrow?
I saw Ed Numpty-Davey on the Daily Politics. Apparently the Lords should vote on the matter but it’s down to the government to stop ratification.
It’s reassuring to note that Clegg’s stance on Davis was random chance, rather than the start of becoming a leader with a brain.
82 ChrisD. I’ve, for me, given DD some benefit of the doubt, and called his 42 day Commons exit a political Reggie Perrin moment, which is I would suggest somewhat more generous that Conservative colleagues such as Fox and Soames (all gastronmic blessings be upon him) have opined.
88 - But the second referendum route would not offer the opportunity for outrage or tearing up of the script, indeed it could well avoid it and indeed may be the only way to salvage the treaty (if that’s what they want to do). Hence it solves lots of problems (if the Irish remember to vote the right way the second time) and, more importantly, is good value at 5/2.
Yorkshire bbc TV showing our flood victims still suffering one year on. Depression suicide bids, destruction of communities etc.
Gordon ‘does’ floods.
Does what exactly?
81. I was quite surprised how little coverage I saw of Romney’s faith during the campaign. It didn’t appear to have been as much of a drag as I would have thought.
Anyone see me on Eggheads a minute ago taking on the might of Judith Keppel at politics?
96. That reflects the media view, and the US media are more secular and thus don’t regard one religious view as any more bizarre than others. To evangelical Christians however, Mormonism is akin to satanism.
O/T - when is UK-Elect going to update their 2010 election forecast?
It’s at the top of Mikes links for election predictors since forever, but they’ve done b*gger all since October 2006.
Their current forecast is way out of date.
And they used to provide at least 2 forecasts a year. All the way back to 2000.
It’s a real shame because, IMO, they have the ergonomically friendly website, with some really nice maps - quite a beautiful election predictor
Anyone know why?
Come on UK Elect; update your site!!
86 The DT [esp the reliability of Ms Kite and Ms Prince] has been a regular topic recently on Con Home.
They regularly post the real quotes and ask you to compare and contrast.
Hennessey is OK. Otherwise, be sceptical.
As as been pointed out by a poster on ConHome, if the Times goes more Tory, the DT’s declining circulation figures will take a hammering. An increasing amount of its readership seems to be reluctant if the blogs are right.
94. As I bow to your superior knowledge of Irish politics, so you must submit to my finer insight into the mentality of British euroscepticism!
Trust me, if the EU forces Ireland to vote again and gets a Yes (whether on this Treaty or another) and thereby brings Lisbon into force, the anger within British eurosceptic circles (i.e. most of the Tory part, and increasingly beyond) will be incandescent.
Cameron will be obliged to deratify - to go to war with Brussels - right from the get-go of his premiership. It will be THE issue for a quite of lot of his voters, and a very large number of his activists.
He may not want this (I’m sure he doesn’t) but he won’t have any choice.
If I were Cameron I would be on the phone to the Taoiseach right now, imploring him to stand firm and reject a second vote, and reassuring him that a future Conservative British government will not let Ireland be isolated. Cammo needs Lisbon to fall now, even more than he did before.
97. I would have - if you’d said.
97 David R. And …. don’t leave us in suspenders ??
97 Will it be on iPlayer?
“Scotland’s appalling levels of drink and drug abuse are causing twice as many deaths as any other part of Britain, a shocking new report has revealed.”
http://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/posts/view/48497/Scots-top-UK-death-league-
105 We have seen this on our ’southern’ news.
93 Jack W what exactly did Fox say about DD other than it was a personal decision? The telegraph added spin saying Fox said it was selfish, something Fox did not actually say.
11 “The security, liberty and prosperity of hundreds of millions of
European citizens ask for complex leadership actions, which cannot be appreciated by heterogeneous populations, from the point of view of the information level and the education one.
European integration is a process that must be conducted politically
by the elected representatives of the European citizens.”
That Soviet Union line is becoming mantra for the EUSSR.
@99.
Further to my comment on UKElect, if any Labour posters are feeling unhappy at the moment, why not drool over the April 2001 UK Election Forecast?
http://www.ukelect.com/HTML/forecasts/2001april.html
Labour@50% !! Something to note.. 2001 could have been *MUCH* worse for the Tories.
And 2001 was already worse than 1997 IMO.
New Siena College Poll for New York :
McCain 33% .. Obama 51%
Note - Earlier today NY Times had M-32/O-51.
http://www.siena.edu/level2col.aspx?menu_id=562&id=17985
Just seen Rod Crosby’s Fruit and Veg hero on Look East News who will be opposing Davis. He will be lucky to get 10 votes…. 5 more than his IQ
We had a plethora of commissioned polls on Crewe and Nantwich. But silence from the media on Henley; could the rumours that it’s looking tighter by the day be true then?
91. That’s a real shame. I was really rooting for Warner!
101 - But this has happened before over Nice - hard to get so worked up and outraged over something that went through on the nod the last time it happened.
“If I were Cameron I would be on the phone to the Taoiseach right now, imploring him to stand firm and reject a second vote, and reassuring him that a future Conservative British government will not let Ireland be isolated.”
That would be a waste of time - Cowen desparately wants to have the treaty ratified!
I really think you’re being over-enthusiastic here and projecting a little onto Cameron as well.
From the Irish Times website:
“EU leaders will want to hear from Taoiseach Brian Cowen at a summit in Brussels later this week whether he sees any hope of winning a new referendum, a step which has so far not been ruled out but which one which EU leaders believe is a high-risk strategy.”
I think this has to be at least 50:50 right now which is why I think Paddy Power’s odds are generous.
114, difference with Nice is that Lisbon is essentialy Constitutionv2. v1 was turned down by the froggies and Dutch, when it was totally ‘reworked’ (they used a new font and everything). Anything less will make the Irish feel as if they aren’t as important as the cheese-eating surrender monkeys.
115 - There is something to that - there will only be a referendum if they can offer the kind of concessions that address key concerns of no voters. Whatever those concerns were. Of course they cant change the treaty. But that’s ok, many no voters’ concerns had nothing to do with the treaty anyway.
109. Shikes.
This is even *WORSE*.
This is how a Conservative wipeout could have happened… Conservative Party DESTROYED:
http://www.ukelect.com/HTML/forecasts/2001dec.html
Jesus, how soon we forget how bad things were..
I still haven’t figured how Hague managed to do so badly in 2001, he should have at least picked up a couple of dozen seats.
Playing devil’s advocate here - I really don’t think this will happen - but I do wonder if David Davis and Gordon Brown are now locked in something of a staring match, daring the other to blink first.
Although the media narrative has trended towards DD from an initially hostile position, the general view (with which I agree) is that there is a risk he will look daft and the whole thing will become farcical if he is standing against assorted (very) minor parties, with both Labour and the Libe Dems staying away. I am not convinced DD foresaw this, which makes me wonder whether, if Labour were to announce that they are not going stand, DD may seek to make a graceful(ish) withdrawl from his position, not resign and try to spin it as “The Government won’t defend it because they know it is indefensible. I have proved my point and there is no need to go any further”. For these reasons I wonder if DD is delaying his announcement in the hope that the “dithering Gordon” line gains more traction and forces Labour out.
By the same token, I suspect Gordon wants to see DD having handed in his notice (and the media reaction) before making a decision - he needs to be told whether or not the media would forgive a no-show, and he won’t really know that until DD has put it on the block.
As I say, I don’t think this will happen, but it would be interesting. I am not sure I know which way the media would go in these circumstances.
107 TC. Dr Fox’s ringing endorsement :
“Many of us feel very similarly to David but his way of highlighting it, calling a by-election, was a personal decision, it wasn’t something that was taken in consultation with the shadow cabinet.”
AND
“David has very strong views. He’s decided that’s how he would like to highlight it. Obviously that’s his personal decision and, as David Cameron said, it’s a courageous thing to do because you never know what will happen in a by-election. But it was not a collective decision.”
AND
Asked whether he thought the decision selfish, Dr Fox replied: “I think it’s clearly a decision he made for himself. It is evidently not something I would have done. It wasn’t something that was decided collectively, so David takes responsibility for that action.”
119 exactly Jack W he did not have a go at Davis.
119 - Not very negative, all he does is to say that this isn’t official tory policy, therefore making sure that labour can’t say that ‘tories this/that’ when this is an issue that should be beyond party politicking.
118. David Davis can’t back out now. Not withouth doing serious damage to his cause. No, I think he’s waiting to challenge Gordon Brown on Wednesday and then will officially resign on Wednesday afternoon.
Assuming he can catch Mr. Speaker’s eye…
114. No, you really don’t understand British eurosceptics. Your analysis is asinine.
If Lisbon is forced through then Cammo will have to “do something” - Tories will demand it. Europe is now going to dominate British politics for the next nine months whatever happens - if it comes into force it will come into force around the time of the GE, or just before. If Lisbon had passed without problems it might not have been so salient - but now… now everything is different.
Think on it. A new EU president. New EU embassies. Legal personality for the EU. 50 new powers going to the EU parliament etc - and all this happening “illegally” - at least arguably - and against the express wishes of the British people and the Irish (and the French, and the Dutch, for that matter).
And all of it happening at just the “right” moment - as we head to a general election.
The atmos will be venomous.
You also misconstrue me over Cowan. Or course he’d like to see Lisbon ratified by the Irish. But I imagine his love for his career is even greater than his love for the passerelle clause.
He knows that re-running the referendum is an enormous risk. If he loses again, I think he’s out on his ear. He would be a laughable figure. In Ireland and in Europe.
He wants to avoid this. I think he sees his best bet now is getting the EU to abandon or at least shelve Lisbon - and for this he needs some support from other EU leaders, who can reassure him he won’t be alone to face Franco-German bullying.
Hence a nice friendly phone call from Cammo, the next British PM, might be in order.
Former Hillary campaign manager Patti Sollis Doyle joins Obama’s team as the Chief of Staff to Obama’s VP pick. Mmhhhhh ???
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/06/16/former-clinton-campaign-manager-joins-obama-team/
re 17 Indeed Stuart D. You might ask why G Brown, Esq keeps spouting on about them as well as they will have absolutely no impact on his constituents at all.
Have we had an election party funding statement yet?
Are Labour about to cap Tory donations but not union ones and thereby underline their reliance on them and their state of near bankrupcy?
re 48 well this assumes there’s going to be a by election in Haltemprice firstly. Secondly, bye election campaigns are only 27 days at most.
One of my favourite quotes on the Lisbon NO vote is this - also in the OED 2009 draft edition as a supplementary defintiion of “irony”
“It is not truly democratic that less than a million people should decide the fate of half a billion Europeans”, said the leader of the Euro-Greens, Daniel Cohn-Bendit.
I am not sure that some of the Tories on here have quite thought the Davis thing out. Most have Tories have taken the ‘folk hero’ line, but the more they do that, the more they store trouble up for Cameron. The Cameroons, for various reasons, took a decidedly cool and unsupportive line over Davis. If the Davis folk hero bandwagon takes off there is a collision course within the Conservative Party - and it is at least three ways - i.e. Authoritarian vs. ‘libertarian’ in one direction and Cameron vs. real ‘folk hero’ challenge to authority in the other direction.
The Cameroons picked the right line - the supporters didn’t. The only question now is how messy it’s going to get in the long run.
For anyone interested, here is an excellent take on why hillary lost and obama won.
LINK.
David Davis will benefit from the British cultural preference for the underdog, for the loner who takes on the system. It’s a David and Goliath show. The sling shot of democracy versus the assembled throngs of Gordon’s army.
It will be a gladiatorial display guaranteed top media billing, with spinners and twisters of words firing away at each other. I cannot any betting angles.
The Conservatives that I know seem confused by Davis, though generally think he has lost it. If they and more importantly the borderline voters get the impression that the Tories are a disorganised rabble - liable to do odd things, then things could get interesting.
How much do polls cost? I have asked ComRes to quote for Henley. Do you think that PB could afford one? - say £50 a head!
127
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7457201.stm
120 TC. I’m sure you’re not that niave TC.
How about Soames (may his girth be ever increasing) … he said:
“It is a disaster for David personally. Words cannot express how foolish he has been.”
Soames added that Davis had let down his party. “Politics is at all times a team game,” he said. “Reliability is all in politics.”
Or perhaps the Honourable Member for Sussex(Huge)Mid(Rift) had guzzled a few dozen oysters and one was off and sunk a gerry of champers and was then mis-quoted ???
132. Yeah, I think Davis lost it, but it’s gonna be fun, it livens things up, it’s nice to see someone taking a stand on something important, and it will impact more on the Labour party (by underlining their cowardice and illiberalism) than it will on the Tories.
And he will win, of course.
132 Icarus. The ARSE would only charge 45 guineas per head !!
130. Paul - Conservatism has been pushing towards a more robust Libertarianism for some time now.
Decentralisation of power, local decision making, euroscepticism, more liberal stances on social issues and an increased focus on civil liberties have been a particular focus of the last 3 years.
Authoritarians in the party are largely restricted to Cornerstone and, I suspect, number <25% of the party - a fair few of whom will retire in the next 2-6 years.
There is also the advantage that the Public might recognise - through Davis - that the Conservatives are people who hold Principles and are relaxed - and will support - people following them.
That could have some minor electoral benefit.
Resurfacing of sleaze allegations is the biggest threat to the Tories IMO.
188 Re Davis, I’m not sure if anyone’s posted this, but Davis has a piece in the Standard today http://tiny.cc/hgh4i Predictably, he taunts Brown about bottling elections.
I guess there is a bit of brinkmanship right now because Davis hasn’t resigned yet, and Brown hasn’t ruled out Labour’s standing a candidate.
But, personally I don’t see how Labour can stand now, having already called it a stunt. Nor can I see how Davis can pull out having already the called the election on.
So I reckon the election will take place. Assuming it does, someone, if not Labour is going to have to put the case for the surveillance society… the BBC I suppose?
45 guineas is £47.50 - not much of a discount!
138 That url doesn’t work. Here it is in full: http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23495389-details/Comment%3A+public+response+to+my+stand+proves+this+debate+is+vital/article.do
122. Strange how the betting odds appear to be going the other way.
141 Sorry should have referred to 112.
139 icarus. Actually it’s £47.25 …. but damn it man !!! … you’ve just got a hefty discount from a Scot !!!
130 The position is more nuanced than that. Its the Kavanagh approach. Mixed feelings. Good cause. Big ego.
You can support a man’s cause and accept it took guts but also accept at the same time think he has proved he is not leadership material.
IMHO much of the voting membership will not thank him for taking a risk.
130 The position is more nuanced than that. Its the Kavanagh approach. Mixed feelings. Good cause. Big ego.
You can support a man’s cause and accept it took guts but also accept at the same time think he has proved he is not leadership material.
IMHO much of the voting membership will not thank him for taking a risk.
EURO 2008:
All about the 1938 tonight!!!!!
Anschluss Anschluss Anschluss
117
That’s a terrifying prediciton! I always was of the impression that the Tories were saved by foot and mouth - the government’s horrendous handling of it and the delayed election were enough to shore up the rural Tory vote which basically saved them from a worse than ‘97 outcome - could have been goodnight Vienna so easily.
137 Casino Royale. I think that as the Tories have become more confident, their rhetoric has drifted back towards classic Tory lines. But we shall see.
Icarus, if you honestly want a poll for Henley, e-mail paulglloyd@yahoo.co.uk.
131. I sometimes wonder if Obama was running to win when he first entered the race last year. I think perhaps he was trying to do a Reagan - set himself up as the alternate to the establishment choice, in order to have a real crack later. I imagine his change narrative and bipartisan message was future looking to the electorate being fed up of four/eight years of Hillary Clinton, while also having awful memories of the Bush years.
17. Me thinks something wrong with the electoral calculus for Scotland.
Fed in 50% Con, 10% Lab, 15% Lib Dem and 20% SNP. Result Con 13 seats, Lab 23 seats, Lib Dem 9 seats and SNP 14 seats.
Then fed in 80% Con, 5 % Lab, 5% Lib Dem, 5% Nat. Result Con 49 seats, Lab 7 seats Lib Dem 2 seats and SNP 1 seat.
Even on 40% of the vote with the other parties sharing the balance, Con only win 4 seats!!!
Has Mark Senior got a similar model?
130. The truth of the matter is, I don’t particularly care what it means for the Tories. My suspicion is that with the economy going t*ts up, the next election is pretty much there for the taking the Tories. I don’t see anything coming out of David Davis’s campaign that will damage the Cons to such a degree that they will lose in 2010. But, in the end the message David Davis is relaying and the fact he is standin