Could low turnout turn Henley into another Bromley?
June 17th, 2008
Is my 20/1 bet on the Lib Dems good value?
With all the focus on David Davis not much attention is being given to Henley a week on Thursday where the Tories are hoping to hold Boris Johnson’s old seat by a reasonable margin.
The betting has reflected the general view that the Tories are a near certainty. The best you can get from a traditional bookie is 1/25. They are offering just 7/1 on the Lib Dems which is hardly value.
This lunchtime, however, I’ve laid the Tories at 0.05/1 on Betfair for £1000 giving me the equivalent of 20/1 on the Lib Dems. So I am risking £40 to win a grand. The cost-return ratio seems pretty good and reflects the impression that I am getting that Nick Clegg’s party might just be in with a shout. They are certainly going to be much closer in terms of vote shares then the Conservatives are going to find comfortable.
The message I’m getting is that the Lib Dem campaign, led by the party’s by-election guru and CEO, Lord Chris Rennard, feel that real progress is being made and that there’s talk of “another Bromley“.
Certainly the party is throwing everything at the campaign and over the weekend Nick Clegg was accompanied on by two former leaders - Paddy Ashdown and Ming Campbell.
The well-proven technique in contests of this kind is to find an apparent defect in the opposing candidate and then to go at it hell to leather. In Bromley it was the “Three jobs Bob” jibe at the Tory candidate that began to resonate. In Henley the Lib Dems think they have found a weakness in the Tory candidate and are exploiting it to the full.
Clegg’s candidate also has a chink in his armour - he comes from Plymouth and the efforts to make him sound local have proved to be quite controversial.
By-elections ain’t pretty and sometimes the campaigns are not for the squeamish but it’s vital for all sides to use everything that’s available if that might give them an advantage.
At the end of the day Henley will be about turnout. The bigger it is the better the chance of the Tories holding it by a comfortable margin. But it’s going to be hard getting people to turn out simply because it does look so much of a certainty.
I think my bet is a good one.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
The Tories are certainly rattled.
Their County Leader Keith Mitchell was angrily waving one of the Lib Dem newspapers around in the County Council meeting this morning.
Well all the Lib Dems here seem to think the Lib Dems are in with a good shout. It be funny if the Lib Dems got nowhere near the Tories mind.
Has Cameron been down yet? Is Boris himself involved in the campaign? Something makes me feel nervous on this one, accentuated by the attention of H&H.
Go for it LibDems!! The Tory candidate is an absolute stinker. As bad as Timpson was good.
In the meantime, I don’t know whether to take this seriously…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steve-rosenbaum/when-mccain-drops-out_b_107236.html
Any thoughts?
I am going down on Sunday so I shall see what my nose tells me. Usually though a by-election hits the headlines somewhere for some reason and this one hasn’t. I suspect turnout will be down and we will get a default result with the Lib Dems picking up a few percent from Labour but still being a sizeable chunk behind the Conservatives.
4. The guy’s way off. Either it’s close and McCain won’t quit, or it’s not close and the GOP will be happy for him to be the fall guy.
2. Yes but didn’t they also think Paddick would ‘come through the middle’ and weren’t their comments on C&N generally pretty inaccurate as well….
re 4. Jonathan - I’m planning a thread on this piece later in the day.
Another by election so another LibDem self congratulatory prediction.
This is rather like an English summer. Sun is forecast and rain happens.
Didn’t we have the same line about Crewe? That rained on the LibDem parade. And the mayoral contest, where that strange chap whatisname, was going to come through the middle. The result fairly flooded his parade and washed him away.
The Lib Dems aren’t particularly known of late for their ability to call the result. Weren’t they ‘running close’ in Crewe and Nantwich too?
The LDs need to do well in Henley otherwise the damp squib will begin to look like a trend.
McCain is almost actuarial value at 1.04 to lay on betfair.
4 - Jonathan in ‘love-a-toff’ scandal.
@10:
There’s no evidence that the Lib Dem squeeze is letting up, however the issues that squeezed them so badly in London and C&N seem less in play in Henley, so expect them to do (relatively) somewhat better.
12 - I agree, plus also they start in second so it isn’t a case of squeeze. I
We’ll I guess for once it is a “two horse race”
re 9 - If you have bets at 20/1 you only need one to come up every nineteen times to be in profit. This is all about value.
And Bromley - Cameron’s first by-election defence - wasn’t good
Let us look at this fantastic LibDem opportunity in Henley:
1 LibDem candidate a carpetbagger from the seaside
2 libDems welched on voting for a referendum on Lisbon (and Henley is hardly Europhile territory)
3 Tories have a 20% lead in the national polls - so in a strong Tory area this is going to be less? Any less determination to give the government a bloody nose? I don’t think so. And will a protest vote be to the Tories or the LibDems?
4 Tories in Henley know as well as anyone else that Bromley was a mess - so they will repeat the error? Unlikely but not impossible but…..
5 Chris Grayling is running the Tory effort and he is the best attack dog we have besides the Great Eric
6 Every by election the LibDems in Cowley Street declaim ‘we are in with a shout here’ so is this any more true this time than last where it was a strong Labour seat and this is a strong Tory one?
16 If you are offering the same odds Mike got, I am on. My forty quid to your grand?
May I ask some PBers to get a grip !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I posted the Huff piece by Rosenbaum yesterday !!!!!!!!!!
Next we’ll be chatting on the betting implications of Cromwell’s first by-election at Naseby North and whether depressed turnout will assist the Royalist candidate - David Davis !!
Mike S Bromley was in a different political era and since then much has changed in the national mood, the organisation of the Tories for by elections, press, PR and election material.
If you are risking your money on that then those other 19 options better be a lot more certain than this one.
But then, anything can happen. Perhaps Clegg will be caught in bed alone.
18 All due respect to the master.
11 You have to admit Timpson had an easy “likeability” that this Henley chap doesn’t. Was never a proponent of the C&N toff nonsense BTW. The Tory candidate in Bromley was also a very poor choice in comparison.
Disciplined GOTV may let the LibDems come closeish if the Tories don’t bother, but you really have to assume a Tory hold. 20/1 does sound like good value.
BTW I wonder is David Davis coming down to campaign for his allies?
18 I believe that DD is the roundhead and DC the cavalier.
16. How would the Tories winning Henley give the government a bloody nose?
Latest Rasmussen Tracker :
McCain 44% .. Obama 48%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
18,21 There is a tried and trusted method to see who’s the roundhead. Can’t see either Dave obliging us on the campaign trail. Would make for a truly unprecedented campaign. Would the evidence stand up to scrutiny?
23. Is that the odds on them winning or making it alive to the election ?
4 - Pure fantasy. Even if it looks bad for McCain later in the year, you don’t win the lottery if you haven’t got a ticket. McCain has a ticket and they’d have to prize it from his cold, dead hand.
On Henley, 20-1 is good value, 10-1 wouldn’t be. The Lib Dem high command is taking it seriously as an attempt to modify the narrative and see what might work against the Tories in a significant number of marginal seats if the Tories remain on a national upswing. I’d say the mood is one of confidence that we are competitive but not optimism about turning out a giant swing.
My friends working on the Henley campaign are not worried in the slightest. Take that for what it’s worth
Test that is fine as long as they do not become complacent or triumphalist.
2.
“funny if the Lib Dems got nowhere near the Tories mind.”
Who wants to get anywhere near a Tory’s mind?
9.
“Another by election so another LibDem self congratulatory prediction”
Witan, before your smugness overpowers, look back to the Tory ’self congratulatory predictions’ in the run-up to Ealing. Bullsh*t knows no party boundaries.
re 19. I have no doubt that the Tories will do very well against Labour because of views about Brown. For the mood at the moment is first anti-Brown, then anti-Labour and only then pro-Conservative. That’s why you cannot apply the same assumptions. Dealing with the Lib Dems is going to be very difficult for the Tories.
I am prepared to wager now that the Tories will win far fewer LD seats back than the uniform national swing before the general election suggests.
Why would anyone in Henley vote Libdem?
Clegg made an almighty mess of the referendum vote and they’re 20 - 25% behind the Tories in the opinion polls - and the Tories aren’t the ones responsible for the present cock-ups anyway.
To put it bluntly - what benefit does a Libdem vote give to the Henley electorate?
A low turn-out is quite likely, a lower %age majority for the Tories quite possible, but it wouldn’t do to read too much into it. Though the Libdems will, they always do, the breaking dawn of a Libdem revival is due any day soon, mantra. Poor sods. Almost feel sorry for them.
7: Ummmm, looking through the threads on C&N, I think that - after about day 3 - everyone pretty (even the most ardent LibDemmers) that it was a two horse race. And the LibDems weren’t either horse.
Mike S did tip Paddick’s odds to shorten. Which they singularly failed to do (except in the very short term). But even then, I don’t think anyone was seriously talking up the chances in London.
Mike S - admittedly my father - has been pretty astute on his tipping of outsiders, if you are happy to give me 15-1, I’ll take a small bet with you.
(I note a distinct lack of takers for my offer of a bet on NRK’s losses by the end of Aptil…)
Caroline Spelman to be investigated.
Denis McShane to doused in kerosene and incinerated.
33 What an outrage!!
33 Cameron is going to regret failing to deal with her first time around imo.
35, considering the police dropped the investigation into Abrahams and Harman, yes it is.
Three reasons why Henley maybe closer than it should be.
1. The Conservative candidate’s slight links to developers.
2. Complacency. Why did Grayling find the time to appear on the Sunday Programme?
3. Spellman. Now being officially investigated.
Spelman:
It must come as a bit of a shock to the tories. They’ve become so used to getting a free ride from the press and the public.
It’s rather refreshing that at least one person is not prepared to accept their lies at face value.
YouGov Poll: Brown must not ratify Lisbon Treaty:
- Public say Gordon Brown must not ratify the Treaty
- Only 29% now support full EU membership
A poll of 1,000 UK voters conducted last night by YouGov for the think tank Open Europe finds that voters think the Lisbon Treaty should now be dropped and not ratified - by a margin of nearly four-to-one.
http://www.politicshome.com/Landing.aspx?blog=1387&perma=link
Full details
http://www.openeurope.org.uk/research/yougovlisbonpoll.xls
33. By police or parliment committee ?
41. And will she be interned for 42 days for questioning ?
37 The laws dont apply to Labour, come on we all know that. Abrahams donations were described as illegal and would be paid back by the PM in the house but not even a trial to determine guilt or innocence.
The final death throes of Labour will see more of this nastiness. If Spelman is guilty then fair enough…… but havent all the Labour expsenses been shredded prior to 2005 so no chance of any 10 year old scandals affecting them.
40. Hello Labour, it’s the pot, you’re black.
You’re lot are the last ones to take the moral high ground over financial irregularities.
& 7. I did say get on Obama on May 27th 2005 when he was 50/1.
I did say get on Cameron for the Tory leadership even when he moved out to 10/1.
I did say get on Harriet Harman for Labour’s deputy leader when she was 9/1.
I did say get on Boris when he was 2/1.
I did say get on the Tories in C&N when they were 4/5.
You can have a whole pile of losers when you have a records of winners like mine.
By Standards Commissioner John Lyon
@38/39:
I love the smell of desperation in the mid afternoon.
@44:
Alright, no need to show off.
39, even if you’re being anti-Tory, the Spelman case is nothing compared to the MEP situation which is present and involves vastly larger sums of money.
The fixation (and investigation) of such a minor incident when the Speaker’s wife spent £4,000 on taxis and got away with it and members of the Cabinet have taken hundreds of thousands of pounds in illegal donations is breathtakingly stupid.
39 - lighten up Gabble, you’ve still got two years before you and your Brownite tribe, with all your fatuous lies and evasions, are cast into the sewer of history where you belong. Plenty of time for twisted bitter hatred then. Enjoy yourself while you can.
Nothing to do with odds - Ive just put £50 n the Lib Dems to win in Henley - as a result of a friends telephone canvassing for …..the Tories! Apparently the planning thingy is really hitting home and hes coming across as a bit of a buffoon
Netherlands 2/1 on betfair to beat Romania today. A very good value bet, despite Netherlands having nothing to play for.
48 what do you mean “even if you are an anti-tory”? The MEPs are tories too! Do keep up…
One shocker?? from the poll question: Can you name any of your local MEPs without looking them up? Result 88% No 8% Yes and 4% Don’t Know (Surely a don’t know is a no!)
This mean that 1 in 12 of our population can name a local MEP. I’m sure this tells us something about their standing in Politics.
52, I know, my point is that those who are anti-Tory are daft for aiming at such a petty affair compared to the Conservative MEPs. (However, MEPs of other parties are also less than kosher).
48 The Spelman thing is interesting.
It is arguably less sinister than the MEP case, but the fact she spent the money on a nanny resonates with a lot more people than you’re usual every day Tory scandal. “How can she be expected to understand the needs of working mothers …” was a response I heard on the doorstep. Not many people care about big old Tory MEPs, who have a certain image already.
So whilst you think it is nothing, perhaps unfairly in the non-linear world of politics this is actually more damaging.
Gabble I suggest you log on to Tory Diary before posting. The investigation is at the request of cchq and against the wish of the Commissioner; cchq want Caroline’s name to be properly cleared.
better luck next time.
Mike S “I have no doubt that the Tories will do very well against Labour because of views about Brown. For the mood at the moment is first anti-Brown, then anti-Labour and only then pro-Conservative.”
And where do the LibDems come in this litany? After pro-conservative or before anti-Labour?
The LibDems do particularly well when they are seen as the safe protest vote but I do not think that is holding up very well in Tory marginals as the brand ‘decontamination’ process often mentioned here is having an effect on those who were tending to the LibDems as they were unable to bring themselves to vote Tory.
I can see no reason why that should not hold in Henley, where the best way to show your distaste for the Brown government is to vote for the main opposition party: there is little reason any longer to move elsewhere because of that new image Tory party.
I am not saying the LibDem vote will collapse, but that it is unlikey grow, and may decline, in absolute terms. There may be a loss to the Tories of some or all of Boris’ personal vote but they are as likely, I would guess, to stay at home as to vote for someone else.
The critical thing for the percentage shares of the vote, as you mentioned, is turnout. At the last election the LibDem share was half the Tory 53% share and 12,000 votes behind with only 6,000 Labour votes to fight for.
That is an indication of how far you have to go to win, or even to ‘be in with a shout’.
54 OK but see Jonathan’s comment at 55: I think he is right on resonance.
Incidentally - don’t most people suspect elements close to the MEPs being investigated by Spelman of leaking the information about her? Or do we think this is just coincidence?
A couple of things.
This should be the safest Tory by-election ever. The reason that 20/1 is good value is that whilst there is no danger of the Lib Dem vote getting too big, if ever there was a wing of the Tory Party that wouldn’t come out for Cameron’s new-style Conservatives, I reckon it would live in Henley-upon-Thames.
Also, Heseltine and Boris enjoyed massive personal support, plus significant name recognition. There would be a dip for any other by-election candidate.
I would be shocked if the Lib Dems won this one, but tactical voting by Labour, disgruntled right-wingers unhappy at Cameron, no celebrity fighting the seat, press distracted by H&H, low coverage giving low turnout, general complacency amongst Conservatives - if Clegg was a better leader, and they hadn’t found a random bloke from Plymouth at the last moment, I’d actually take them at anything over 15/1. As it is, 20/1 is probably the boundaries of good value.
56. Go back to sleep test.
‘John Lyon, the parliamentary standards commissioner, said today that the “exceptional” circumstances meant a full inquiry should take place.
A statement from his office said: “Having carefully considered the matter, the commissioner has recommended to the [standards and privileges] committee that exceptionally he should conduct an inquiry. The committee has accepted that recommendation.”‘
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/jun/17/houseofcommons
Wendy Alexander didn’t actually commit a major crime, a measly few hundred quid, but some posters on this site, wanted her hung drawn and quartered!
Can’t imagine Spelman will be found guilty of anything serious, its too long ago, a mild reprimand of the, ‘You should have known better’ type.
55 - I think that the huge problem with this sort of thing is that by nitpicking every single departure from the letter of the rules in such a fashion the net effect is to diminsh the view of politicians who are at root decent. Yes there are issues with the system that need addressing but making out that most of the practitioners of politics are behaving in a sordid or self-interested manner is way off the mark. Secondly I think it will have the effect of dissuading people from persuing a political career. I know of a number of people whose attitude is basically ‘if I wanted to jump through hoops I’d join a circus’.
The BBC website doesn’t mention the background facts until the 9th paragraph when it says…
Mr Lyon’s office said in a statement that Mrs Spelman had requested last week he begin an inquiry, “despite having received no formal complaint about her conduct and that the events complained of were more than seven years ago”.
55 - Yes, quite, how could Caroline Spelman, a working mother, be expected to understand the needs of a working mother?
60 yes, the exceptional circumstances being that she is the Chairman of the Conservative Party and they have indicated they want an investigation to clear her name.
Which is what will happen.
Anyone have any info on the Hazel Blears story on the BBC latest ticker.
66 what does it say?
44 mike S who are you answering when you refer to post 7? yp?
OMG the chipmonk left the documents on the train!
66, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7459579.stm
Whoops. Still, could be worse. She could have been involved in a minor expenses issue in 1953.
61 Does Wendy Alexander need to have commited a crime worse than oxygen theft for any sane person to want her hung drawn and quartered?!?
chipmunk even
“Hazel Blears may have broken the rules on handling classfied documents” hahahahaa
67 Blears……. words fail me.
Is see GO is calling for something akin to Credit Controls, to cure the British addiction to debt, Good Luck George!!
Hmmmm
Credit Controls. Some commentators have suggested that the imposition of credit controls would be a more effective and less damaging way of curbing inflationary pressures than the use of interest rates. This is not the case. Despite the establishment of a complex apparatus for controlling prices, including credit controls, the last Labour Government presided over the highest inflation this century.
To be effective credit controls would need to cover mortgage lending which constitutes three-quarters of all personal debt. Only 15 per cent of all personal sector debt is in the form of consumer credit – and of that under 5 per cent is credit card borrowing. Mortgage controls would penalise first-time buyers, while wealthier, more financially sophisticated borrowers could easily circumvent them by turning to foreign banks. Moreover, without the reintroduction of exchange controls, any form of credit control could be avoided merely by borrowing off-shore. But not only would credit controls be ineffective, they would also damage the economy. As Mr Peter Lilley, Economic Secretary to the Treasury, has observed, direct controls on lending:
‘create inefficiencies and distortions in the market, which act to the disadvantage of borrowers and lenders alike and … are unfair. They give unregulated and often less reputable lenders a competitive advantage. And they mean that less-well placed borrowers have to pay more and are driven to loan sharks … There is a perfectly good [22] mechanism for influencing the total quantity of saving, money and credit, without resort to direct … controls. That is the price mechanism: which in this context means interest rates’ (Speech to the London International Financial Futures Exchange, 7th September 1988).
From the Conservative Campaign guide 1989, obviously GO hasn’t read it!
71, not everyone. I imagine the SNP are thrilled at her presence in Scottish politics.
And in a further shocking revelation, Des Browne is being linked to this incident:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/war/nuclear-submarine-found-on-train-200806151021/
69 “OMG the chipmonk left the documents on the train!”
No. Stolen computer seemingly.
she left papers on defence and extremism in her office which contained sensitive info and constituency info = people’s addresses, lives in danger? and they were stolen.
cheers Hazel.
the documents also recorded the Cabinet’s ferrets in sack impression over new planning laws
Good news in the Middle East. Israel-Hamas ceasefire:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7459200.stm
If anyone is interested, I went to a political dinner last week with the former Mayor of Wandsworth who used to work with John Howell (the Henley Conservative candidate) at Ernst & Young.
John Howell was apparently one of the first people to crack the post-Soviet market for Professional Services firms, and had quite a reputation in the sector. The Managing Partner of E&Y was once asked “oh - do you work for John Howell?” who was at that time just a mid-level manager, and the Managing Partner was not amused. Apparently an extremely canny operator.
62 - The trouble with the Spelman thing is that, read one way, it isn’t merely a departure from the letter of the rules. The nanny originally claimed she did nothing secretarial (though has since backtracked). If that’s the case, it’s very serious. It is hardly a misunderstanding and technical breach of the rules to hire household staff with your secretarial allowance - it is serious dishonesty. You cannot spend your employer’s money on something which you know you are meant to pay for yourself such as help around the home.
But that is of course subject to a full investigation and Spelman argues the nanny was paid for proper secretarial work which would be fine (at worst messy and open to unfair misinterpretation).
I’m going to Henley on Friday and will report back - but from what I’ve heard, it should be a comfortable Tory win. You can shock them once (like at Bromley), but twice would be cavalier in the extreme and there’s little evidence that Cameron is that slipshod.
The question for gamblers is that is 20-1 a fair price for the Lib Dems? It implies a 5% chance of them winning. That’s probably about right given commanding Tory poll leads and an apparent lack of complacency (a la Bromley).
So what’s sort of benchmark should be set?
Labour held three by-elections on the same day in 1994 - Newham, Barking and Dagenham - all three starting on 50% with the second placed party on 30% (albeit the Tories). In all three they polled over 70% on low turnouts.
Now Henley doesn’t have Labour second, but the important factor will be vote share - Labour in 94-96 usually put on vote substantial share in seats they held - it was a clear sign they were heading for a big win. They, of course, didn’t lose a single by-election to the Lib Dems.
So as far as Henley goes the Tories should be looking to get a 60%+ share - leaving the Lib Dems languishing in the low 30%s and the others scrabbling over lost deposits. A Tory share of 65%+ is sign of a coming landslide (just as the three east London by-elections were).
67 Apparently her nanny stole a computer containing secret documents from her constituency office.
76 lol MM
60 and 65 he didn’t say the circumstances of the case were exceptional, implying that that refers to Spelman. He said that despite there being no prima facie reason for an enquiry he would, as an exception to the normal rules, hold an enquiry at the request of the MP. The details of the case did not form part of his reasoning.
Gabble cannot be expected to understand this use of exceptional because he can barely muster the wherewithal to breathe and is to be forgiven for clutching at all and any straw that comes his way.
Does Blears not have cause to consider her position?
80 You don’t get selected as the Tory candidate for Henley without being somewhat canny. Good story.
Anyone having luck at Ascot today?
88 More to the point, has Arabella Weir done as promised - and thrown herself under a horse in protest at Mayor Boris? I expect not. Bloody luvvies. So unreliable…..
Are the Jonathans at 4 and 87 connected?
The thing is that theree are proportionally a larger number of vehemently pro EU Labour and Lib Dem supporters than there are Tories. So they are hardly likely to start jumping up and down too much about Tory MEP sleaze when they have some homegrown Tory sleaze instead. They know only too well that MEP sleaze inevitably leaves people thinking badly of not just the individual MEPs but of the whole project as they recognise that corruption, mismanagement and cover up are endemic in the EU institutions.
So the EUrofanatics will do their best to ignore the sleaze amongst MEPs whilst pushing hard on the MP sleaze even when the former is miles worse than the latter.
Ha-Ha-Ha-Ha-Ha-Ha-Ha-Ha-Ha-Ha-Ha-Ha-Hazel Blears…….
Caroline Spellman must love you!
89. Hopefully not the next race although it may be a fair trade!
89 You just cant trust a leftie……….
86 - Hazel Blears doesn’t strike me as the type to consider anything very much.
The Libs have been in a strong challenging position in Henley since Feb 1974. They last held the seat 1906-1910, and Ian Fleming’s father regained the seat for the Tories in 1910. The Tories thus have had an unbroken 98-year tenure, although Labour did come pretty close in 1945.
The last time a second-placed Lib failed to make progress in a Tory seat was at Knutsford 1979.
There is a small possibility of a shock result, although I don’t agree that 20-1 is particularly good value.
A majority of less than 5,000 would be a poor result for the Tories, although probably of no long-term significance, while a Bromley type result would be a very bad blow for Cameron.
Out of interest, if anyone on the ground knows, are Labour actively campaigning or are they “doing a Newbury”?
90 Yes on this occasion ;-). Being canny/ambitious/Machiavellian enough to win selection doesn’t always guarantee that you are an effective candidate once you face the public. There are plenty of examples that I could mention…
Long time lurker says…any chance that they might have had is now over.
Remember M’s golden rule. The answer to any Political Betting post with a headline as a question is always “no”. It is the equivalent of Daily Mail headlines. Is Britain overrun with immigrants? Do EU bureaucrats control our schools?
Parliamentary Standards Commissioner will investigate Caroline Spelman
John Lyon, Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards, has confirmed that the Conservative Party Chairman will now be investigated for her employment of her nanny ten years ago, when she first became an MP. Mr Lyon had originally said that it would be exceptional to carry out an inquiry into a case more than seven years old. CCHQ is understood to have wanted an inquiry, however, to clear the air - one way or the other. ConservativeHome still expects Mrs Spelman to be exonerated.
96 They’d be fools not to do a Newbury. They’ll be annihilated regardless. Making an effort just heightens the effect.
61.”Wendy Alexander didn’t actually commit a major crime, a measly few hundred quid, but some posters on this site, wanted her hung drawn and quartered!”
Really?
re : Gordon “tough on terror ” Brown - oh dear..
The radical Islamist preacher Abu Qatada is to be released on bail within 24 hours, officials say.
A senior judge has signed papers authorising the release of Qatada, previously described as Osama Bin Laden’s right-hand man in Europe
98
Okay so now I’m confused. Since the answer to at least one of those questions is yes are you sayiong we should or shouldn’t agree with Mike’s question?
102, only through destroying liberties can we protect freedom - Little Brown Book, Chapter 3 The Correct Usage of Brown-Logic
Labour seem to be man-marking the Tories.
Spelman’s case appears, Blears eclipses it.
Brown says “I’m so tough, grrr!”, terrorist nutjob let out.
Let’s just hope Brown announces there’s a shortage of Swedish nymphomaniacs in Yorkshire:p
101. Wendy commits a major crime just by opening her mouth.
“I believe my answers accurately reflect that for one year I had two roles in working for Mrs Spelman.”
Nanny’s statement hasn’t stood the test of time.
Having been a Civil Servant Servant in my youth I have had to sign the Official Secrets Act many times - I even had to sign it when I simply went to meet some people who worked for the Security Service.
From what I remember of its provisions Hazel Blears is in clear breach of the Act but no doubt will wriggle out of it.
91. 103. Ah, a Daily Mail true believer.
FOR GOD’S SAKE, GET THIS GOVERNMENT OUT OF OFFICE BEFORE THEY DESTROY THE COUNTRY!!!!!
50. ramp alert
Trust NuLab with anything secret, wouldn’t trust Hazel Blears to find her own way out of a wet paper bag.
Where’s Ave 08’s take on this, when we need it?
111, you’ll see him again in 41 days:p
107. We now have it written into our contracts so there is no need to keep signing the act (unless you are seeing something that involves different clauses).
I believe that she is guilty of ignoring guidelines & procedure but not of breaking the act as she made no attenpt to disclose the information (that we know of).
@96:
“Doing a Newbury”
Is that some depraved sexual practice I haven’t heard of/tried yet?
107. ’signing’ the OFA is designed just to intimidate you. The OSA, applies to everyone, whether you sign it.
Your signature just confirms the consequences of the act were made clear to you, but since ignorance of the law is no defence, it is rather pointless.
51- Beware, a few “accidental” errors in defence from Netherlands, and they would eliminate both France and Italy… I would bet on a romanian victory (and, sadly, on a French defeat)
116, it could be worse. At least you qualified.
114. No - thats doing a Winchester..
Such suspicion 116. The Dutch don’t have anything against the French do they. BTW Understatement of the Century from Jonathan Pierce on Poland v Germany. “I think these two have a history of animosity on and off the Pitch.”
114. “doing a Newbury” involves running an deliberately invisible campaign, in the hope the Lib Dems give the Tories a bloody nose..
Newbury by-election, 1993
LD 65.1
Con 26.9
Lab 2.0
116. I’d heard about French conspiracy theories, I didn’t know you’d been infected by them Chris.
@119:
What, is there ‘history’ between Poland and Germany?
Wish I knew what it was…
122. Is it not 1-1 on Popes ?
Right if losing files covered by the OSA is not a resignation issue I don’t know what is. Blears if she had any shred of honour should resign.
123 - Tsk, the Germans are 7-1 ahead on that fixture:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_German_popes
@124:
If Blears had any shred of honour, she would have had herself recycled a long time ago.
@125:
In the Jedi vs Sith Popestakes, the Sith are winning 1-0.
125. Lol
Why did this suddenly spring to mind?
Name : Hazel.
Password: Blears.
Check out the Tory leader’s new site!!
http://www.daviddavisforfreedom.com/
130. Did I miss DC’s resignation ?
Is Warner still a potential VP?
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/06/veepstakes_saying_no.html
Henley is a rather weird constituency. Most of the people live in houses hidden by trees. Maybe they even live in the trees. As I walk around, I occasionally think I catch a glimpse of a prehensile tail.
The fields are clearly all voting for John Howell, but virtually no sign of any people actually nailing their colours to a mast (although former minister Tim Eggar has a couple of monster Howell posters outside his house, I noticed yesterday). A few days ago, I did see one LibDem poster in a garden in Henley (looked more like an advert for a weird religious rally rather than to entice LibDem voters out!) - but that now appears to have gone. Along with the house….
Otherwise it is very difficult to tell that there is any vote happening next Thursday. Life continues in all its Stepford-like unhurried calm. Excitement comprises of turning up the speed on the Stannah Stairlift to 11. FACT: there are only seven people in the constituency under fifty eight.
There wasn’t much time to get postal votes organised, but I know the Tories did put in a big effort early on to lock their voters down - so maybe everyone has already voted and gone back to supervising the gardener as he checks the lawns with a spirit level, or carefully cutting out the Obituaries of their neighbours to keep in a leatherette binder. When I asked the other day if there was any whiff of LibDem insurrection in the air, the guy manning one of the offices said none that he had detected….however, most of his other senses had long since deserted, so maybe his sense of smell has joined them?
The LibDems winning Henley would be a weird one though - and certainly warrant a rushed edition of Bonkers News to come hot off the preses.
Re-launch number MCXVIII (security and liberty go hand-in-hand) goes tits up as Blears screws security (but remains at liberty).
C’mon Gordon, time you admitted you’re flogging a dead horse.
30 Mike
“I am prepared to wager now that the Tories will win far fewer LD seats back than the uniform national swing before the general election suggests.”
Could you clarify Mike
i) How many is “far fewer” ?
ii) How are you calculating swing ? (E.g. if the LibDems get the same % as last time but the Tory vote goes up 10% at Labour’s expense, what is the swing ?)
131 DC who? Check out the man who’s setting the Tory agenda. Where DD leads, other Tories (have no choice but to) follow.
“The theft may mean the communities secretary has broken rules on the handling of restricted government information, the BBC has learned.
The machine contained a combination of constituency and government information which should not have been held on it.”
Dear oh dear, Hazel…
@133:
What does Lib Dem insurrection smell like?
I imagine it possesses the same uncomfortable musty aroma of JackW’s arse.
On this afternoons various bits and pieces;
1. Henley. It’ll be an easy Conservative Hold, IMO.
2. Spellman. I’m pleased the Standards commisioner is investigating. As Spellman refered herself, one assumes she can account for all this. If not, and if the commisioner is critical, then she must resign from public office.
3. The YouGov poll on Europe. As Brown has recently been spouting that the public support him on 42 days and anti terror, will he now stop ratifying the Lisbon Treaty? After all, he is the man of the people, isn’t he?
138 What does Lib Dem insurrection smell like?
That unmistakeable musky odour of muesli, non-animal leather elbow patches and patchouli.
136. By that logic Frank Field is PM.
130 - Is the site actually up yet? I keep getting the domain name buying website.
141 I thought that was Mike!
A bit ‘Ha’ at Hazel Blears. Despite being very chipper she never misses a trick at getting in a dig at ‘the tory party’ so I hope they put the b***h on ice!
142 The banner does look a bit generic/a shot of the big brother finalists, but I think it is DD.
Only 7,697 signatures on Lisbon Treaty Petion on No 10s website.
121- Well, I was talking of betting value. In no other circumstances would I bet on them against NL. But today, I would.
And for those that do not believe in this kind of strange events, I would recall Austria-Germany 1982 or Sweden-Denmark 2004…
142. Its been up and running since I posted a link to it last night. You probably need to enable your cookies.
I’m intrigued by the image at the top of that David Davis website. It displays an astonishingly youthful array of people, with DD the oldest by at least 25 years (and no black faces to be seen). Mr Davis appears to be aiming at a pretty restricted part of his constituency electorate.
138 teen spirit
147. PC gone mad alert
147 This was discussed last night. I think there are at least two asian faces, though its a job to tell, as the resolution is so poor.
145 - “I would recall Austria-Germany 1982 or Sweden-Denmark 2004…”
I would add Republic of Ireland V Holland 1990 (as I have specially fond memories of it) but all 3 were results that suited both teams playing. The Dutch dont need a result and will hardly relish a defeat. And we can remember the 2 or 3 games mentioned above but not the countless other crucial group games where there was an opportunity for a convenient result but it didnt happen.
146 - Strange. I cannot get the site on my office or home computer. I have deleted all my cookies in case that was the problem.
Anything else I can try with Internet Explorer?
ctrl-F5
Theres also the exciting DavidDavidForFreedom YouTube channel to relive the glorious moment Davis stood outside Parliament and struck a mighty blow for the common man;
http://youtube.com/daviddavisforfreedom
153 - Whatever that does, that did not work either. I just get the this domain name has been registered webpage.
The truth behind the high cost of living
“3. Brown can cut petrol at a stroke as 60% of the pump price is pure tax. It is the height of hypocrisy for Brown to coining in from the extra money from motorists and at the same say “I feel your pain, I’ll have a word with Soddy Arabia”.
If I were “the King of Soddy Arabia”, as Brown called him at his presser last Thursday, I’d say, when they meet next week: “Look, don’t point the finger at the Arab world for your inability to control the value of your own currency. If you want petrol prices to fall, how about taxing your people less at the pumps? You can do it in a stroke. Petrol prices are high in Britain because you make them so. Don’t blame us.”
I noticed that article in the Independent yesterday commented that the Saudi’s suggested that tax needed to be lowered.
152. you need to flush your dns cache, just done it on my leopard machine. For XP i believe it is ipconfig /flushdns from a command prompt
147
Yes,I noticed no black faces,great to see that the usual PC crap has been ignored.
Regarding Hazels lapse
The spokesman said “none of the departmental material included sensitive personal data about the public or would be of use to criminals”.
Thats all alright then. Good grief!
159″Regarding Hazels lapse”
What has Hazel been up to?
“(and no black faces to be seen)”
H&H census: non-white 1.8%
You’ve been watching too much British Brainwashing Corporation…
Politics Home 5000 tracker reckons that DD has chosen his moment well. Among other stuff, it says:
“Over the same period, the public’s perception of Parliament has been rock bottom. An astonishing 53 percent of the PHI5000 have a negative impression towards Parliament. When ranked among 15 institutions, including the EU and the 2012 Olympics, Parliament comes in at a lowly 14th place, with only ‘tabloid newspapers’ scoring lower.”
Good grief. Parliament gets a lower rating than the EU?
That takes some doing.
161 - Hence the use of parentheses. I was more taken aback by the age profile: do only young people care about civil liberties?
160 “What has Hazel been up to?”
Nothing much, without a ladder…
147 antifrank
“Mr Davis appears to be aiming at a pretty restricted part of his constituency electorate.”
I think you are being a bit unfair. According to the census data, the constituency is over 98% white, and there are barely 100 people describing themselves as Black British in the whole constituency.
http://neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/dissemination/LeadTableView.do?a=7&b=6021383&c=haltemprice&d=27&e=15&g=390597&i=1001×1003x1004&m=0&r=1&s=1213717067187&enc=1&dsFamilyId=47
96 - Labour are doing next to nothing. UKIP and the Green are more visible.
165 - I refer the gentleman to my answer at 163.
162. That seems shocking, but when you consider what this government has done over the past 11 years, you can’t wonder at it. I mean, forget sleaze and spin, this government has gone for all out corruption. Dr Kelly and Lord Levy being just two examples.
When Cameron gets in, we will need nothing short of a complete re-balancing of the relationship between the governed and the government
162 Way to go Gordon - you’ve managed to sink the Mother of all Parliaments lower than the Brussels Bastard Child of Corruption and Gravy
You can’t work out anything of DD’s strategy from a blog banner! I thought that it looked a bit down with the kids, a bit big brother - as such, slightly, but not very funny.
169 Dony for get the contribution of the most disgusting PM in living memory………… Mr Anthony Blair - a truly horrific individual.